Fantasy Football Today - AFC and NFC North PROJECTIONS (07/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 7, 2020

Adam Thielen's targets, Aaron Jones' carries, Ben Roethlisberger's passing yards, we're covering it all on today's show as we tackle the AFC and NFC North. First we discuss a recent draft and Patrick Mahomes' new contract ... AFC North projections for BAL (7:10), PIT (16:53), CLE (24:51) and CIN (31:35). Is Heath too low on Lamar Jackson's rushing totals? Why isn't Juju Smith-Schuster projected for more targets? How do we see the Browns backfield shaking out? Tyler Boyd or A.J. Green? ... To the NFC North with MIN (39:00), GB (45:30), CHI (53:00) and DET (59:00). Just how run-heavy will the Vikings be? Same question for the Packers. Does the QB matter for the Bears? And we discuss Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay and the rest of the Lions ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, it is Monday afternoon, but you're listening on Tuesday. I'm feeling good today. All right. We got Scott Fishbowl drafts going on. I'm in round two. Everybody else is in like round four or five. I just got an A-plus on a real draft that we did that we're playing out.

I got an A-plus. They loved my Saquon Barkley pick, which was actually auto-picked for me. Second overall. So things are looking up. I got poker coming up pretty soon on Tuesday night. You got to tune in for that. And we get to talk about more projections in the AFC North and the NFC North. And I think some very, very interesting teams like the Vikings, how much are they going to throw?

I think Adam Thielen's projection for targets really caught my eye. What's the backfield split going to look like in cleveland in green bay so good stuff today what's up ben and heath how we got how we doing over there guys it pains me to say this but i thought you had a good draft in that magazine draft where you got the a plus usually i think the grades are a little a little wonky but i thought you had a good draft yeah i thought it was really weird because you were taking a lot of players that ben likes and there's usually like there are definitely times where i draft players that ben usually drafts and oftentimes chris towers drafts players that ben usually drafts if you want to take an aj brown in the fourth round, I would have tried to trade him with a team.

I couldn't believe he almost made it to 40. He went like 46th. I couldn't believe it. And Ben had the first pick. I had the second pick. So we will be comparing our teams. I'm really struggling. I'm struggling with the 4-5 turn.

You know, a lot of good players there. It was McLaurin, Metcalf, DJ Chark, Mark Andrews. Who was the player you took in addition to Chark, Ben? Because I took McLaurin. Jonathan Taylor. Oh, okay. I took McLaurin, and then you took Jonathan Taylor and Chark, and then I was Metcalf or Andrews, Metcalf or Andrews and I took

Andrews, but I think we definitely have to do a podcast about like rounds four and five. They're just really tough. Andrews was a great pick there. I had taken Kittle at the 2-3 turn. I was kind of surprised he made it all the way back. Heath was at the other end of the draft at 12. So I can say these things and not

offend Heath because he didn't let any of these picks slip necessarily. And that sucks. I hate picking 12th. It sucks really bad. I do not want the 12th pick in any more drafts, please. Really? Okay. And you know what?

Keeping it on the subject, I had to decide between Juju Smith-Schuster and George Kittle. And I went with Juju, and I see your projections for him, guys, and you've got him for 135 targets for Heath, 143 targets for Ben. And I'm thinking, like, last year, you might have projected him to have, like,

170, 180 targets. So what is different? Don't answer now. We will get into that when we talk about the Steelers in a little bit. All right, so just quick news items. Josina Anderson tweeting that David Njoku remains right now

a big part of the Browns' plans on offense, but that he wants out and the Bears are monitoring. And Patrick Mahomes... The Bears? Didn't she say that? Did I do this again? Did I say that? It might be, but they have 11 tight ends already, I think.

Yeah, what? Okay, I have to see if I screwed this up again because I can't keep doing this. They drafted the earliest tight end of the draft this offseason and they signed Jimmy Graham to an absurd... And they still had Adam Shaheen on the team. Please, please, please tell me. Okay, she followed up and said,

Bears monitoring means it warrants watching, not a Chicago reference. The Bears are not monitoring. It bears monitoring. Oh, wow. That's very, okay. That's confusing. Well, at least she had a follow-up because a lot of people.

You had to clarify, so you're not the only one. Okay, Bears monitoring. Patrick Mahomes signed a 10-year extension. It's going to be about $400 million or something like that. Important clarification, that starts after his current contract expires in two years, so he will be on the Chiefs for 12 more years.

Very good, unless they just get sick of him. Boy, that's going to be such an albatross, $40 million a year. Poker Night. Poker Night, Tuesday night night join us tonight and on twitch twitch.com slash ff today you can subscribe we're gonna be doing a draft with our subscribers at some point but poker night's hosted by our friends at faded spade faded spade card club is a new social poker platform offering free play and custom games go to twitch.com slash ff today and

watch us play a little poker and ask fantasy questions. I got to jump in with the contract comment because anyone on my timeline that I know knows about the salary cap has said, unless there's specific language for the first time ever that ties future years

to percentage of cap, this contract is going to be a massive loss for Mahomes because of how long it is and a massive win for the Chiefs, which is pretty much true of any long contract in the NFL because of how high the salary cap rises. We've seen quarterback salaries explode over the last decade, and they will over the next decade. He could wind up not being anywhere near the highest paid quarterback towards the end of

that contract if it's not tied to the salary cap escalating so the idea that it would be an albatross i was joking okay just trolling um i had something to jump in with as well someone tweeted today in reference to this it's a fact that i had forgotten that cliff kingsbury had patrick holmes in college and had a losing record that year. And now he's got an NFL job, which is pretty amazing. I just want to share our Apple podcast review of the day. Please feel free to leave an Apple podcast review. But finally,

there was a take on this show that I did not give that got us some backlash. It was a one star review. It said I was on the fence about one or five stars. The fact that they don't have any taste and badmouth Spider-Man proves they don't deserve your listens. I'm boycotting all advertisers for this poor excuse for a podcast. Well, it wasn't me who said I don't like Spider-Man. I don't remember saying that. Oh, it was me for sure.

And I want to clarify because I said that having not really seen the Spider-Man movies, I'd only seen him in the Avengers movies and he's insufferable. But I did actually watch one of them far from home. No, not far from homecoming. Homecoming. Homecoming. Spider-Man Homecoming. And it was only like my second or third least favorite movie out of the 20 I've watched so far.

So, yeah, he's pretty awful. Thanks for the one-star review. Actually, we'd appreciate five-star reviews, so let's do it. Let's start with the Baltimore Ravens here as we get into our projections. Win total, 11.5. Under. God, it's so hard to go over that, but I'm saying over.

Okay, the number to know is the number one. The last quarterback to repeat as the number one quarterback in fantasy is Drew Brees, 2011 and 2012. In 2013, I believe Brees was number two, by the way. But here's your ADP review. Lamar Jackson is going 16th overall.

Not in Superflex, obviously, just 16th overall, QB1. Mark Ingram, round five, between DeAndre Swift and Kareem Hunt. J.K. Dobbins, round six, only two picks after Mark Ingram. Marquise Brown, round six, between Stefan Diggs and A.J. Green. And Mark Andrews is a round five pick, but he's the third tight end off the board. This is NFC average draft position. He's going six picks before Zach Ertz. So you have to,

you get Lamar Jackson and then in rounds five and six, you have a lot of Ravens. Ingram, Dobbins, Marquise Brown, and Mark Andrews. Okay. I think that the, let's start with Lamar Jackson.

QB2 for Heath, QB1 for Ben. Now, Ben, I believe you were using four-point for passing touchdown leagues, and Heath was using six? Right? That could be true. I think that's what we determined with... I know what I'm using. I cannot

speculate. I have both, and so I don't know how it was sorted. Yes, this score is four-point, but I will say, he's a 16 point lead in this scoring in my projections over Mahomes and Mahomes is a one point lead over him in six point per TV. So I was surprised by that. That said, are you actually taking Lamar Jackson over Patrick Mahomes? I'm not, but I'm way more open to it now. I mean, I feel a lot more comfortable with Mahomes' particular type of production and the sustainability of it.

Jackson's I also think is sustainable, hence why I said that they will go over, but I do think there's more of a risk that his production could come kind of cratering down. Not like way, way way down but to the to the point if it it's a different type of offense and if there's a defensive adjustment in a way that really limits their efficiency lamar jackson could be like qb5 i don't see how patrick mahomes is qb5 and so this is what i wanted to point out in the projection for Lamar Jackson. He's been, based on his starts in 2018 and 2019, close to a 1,300-yard rusher per 16 games.

Heath's got him for 805 rushing yards. Ben for 1,052. 805 rushing yards, Heath. What? It seems low. Yeah. But I think it is the highest number I've ever projected of rushing yards for a quarterback, if that makes you feel any better. I have his rush attempts down at 134 and his pass attempts up to 464.

So I do think there will be a shift in um their run pass splits it's still going to be maybe the most run heavy team in the nfl um i also dropped him from i believe 7.9 yards per carry last year down to six yards per carry which is pretty much the highest I will project for any quarterback and higher than he had as a rookie. So I, I, I don't, I don't think that the, the yards per carry is agreed just by any stretch. Maybe I'm a little bit, maybe I'm a carry per game too low. I don't know what, what do you have them for total rush attempts been? Yeah, that's going to be it. Cause I haven't 5.9 yards per carry. I'm right with you on that. I have him for 178 rushes, which is, I believe, a little bit of a dip

from last year. Is it? It's close to last year. What did he have last year? He had 176 in 15 games. Oh, right. That's what it is. Yeah. Per game rate is a little bit lower.

Heath, you haven't been 134. So explain yourself. Yeah. I don't think like nobody does that. And I do think there will be some adjustments from the league and some improvement from his, him as a passer.

And they've talked like Lamar Jackson's talked about how he knows he can't run the ball 12 times per game for the rest of his career he's got to start moving in the other direction so i just i maybe it should be 150 but i i wouldn't i can't see getting him over 150 in a projection yeah so in 2018 when in his starts, Lamar Jackson actually carried 17 times per game. And in 2019, what? It was closer to 11 or 12? I think it was 12. Okay. I think I've got him at maybe eight right now,

which I don't believe I have any other quarterbacks for more than 100. Yeah, but you can't compare him to any other quarterbacks. He just broke the all-time rushing quarterback rushing record by 200 yards. Do we want do we want him to throw more if you own Lamar Jackson? I mean, do you want more passing from him or more Russian dynasty, please?

Yeah. Yeah, I look at I mean, if you could guarantee me health, I'd probably just want more rushing but obviously you get a little nervous when a guy runs 175 times uh okay so other other items but but obviously you both love them uh as a quarterback and willing to take them in round three four four three or four yeah i don't know. I'm just so anti-early quarterbacks, but him and Mahomes are an exception.

J.K. Dobbins, 156 carries for Heath, 123 for Ben. I can't remember. Sorry, Gus Edwards last year. Is that more than what Gus Edwards had? Would he have about 130 or something? Let's look that up. But anyway, talk about the running backs and Mark Ingram,

who you guys don't even have as a top 24 running back, and he was a top 10 guy last year. And Gus Edwards had 133 carries last year. Well, we've talked about the Ingram thing a lot. Like the touchdown regression will be real. J.K. Dobbins is better than Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, I believe. And there's more of a risk of him taking more work away from Ingram towards the end of the year.

And Ingram's 31 years old or will be 31 years old, so there's a lot more risk that he's just another step slower. Ben, is there anything else you want to talk about with Baltimore? What do we need to know here? Marquise Brown could be sweet, but it is hard to project him very high. I like him a lot as a player, but he came out pretty low in my projections compared to where I have him ranked.

Um, Mark Andrews, we're both very high on. Yeah. Well, let's stay on Marquise Brown. Cause I do think the projection for both of you is 105 ish targets, 870 ish yards and about seven touchdowns.

Wide receiver 35, wide receiver 36. I'd love for him to get more targets. You know, I just think he's got so much potential in the draft that we were just referencing that we just did. Ben, you took him, and I was going to take him with the next pick, but you took him.

What was that? It must have been like round 7-8, right? Something like that yeah six seven whatever it was the turn so okay so the projections like i said less than 900 yards seven touchdowns certainly a good year but not a top 30 wide receiver for marquise brown and i just wonder you know does he have the potential do you still feel like he has the potential to be a top 15 guy this year? Yes. I think for him to be a top 15 guy, one of two things has to happen.

I mean, he could have a crazy outlier efficiency season or something, but... Yeah, that's my answer. That's not something I don't want to ever draft anybody hoping they could do that personally. But Mark Andrews could get hurt, or Lamar Jackson could run like seven times a game. Okay.

I think we saw such good efficiency last year, and I think for Jackson, and I left that it looks like more of his efficiency in his projection than Heath did because I haven't thrown for more yards on fewer attempts and I haven't thrown for more touchdowns than Heath and I think some of that has to do with how it plays off the run

game and I think there is like I agree with Heath you don't want to suspect like you know to draft somebody expecting this phenomenal efficiency season but I do think with Brown there's reason to believe it could happen. Well, I think that's a good thing to look at with Jackson, just like in reference to Brown. If he has a 7% touchdown rate, like his career, then sure.

Marquis Brown could be a top 15 wide receiver. It's just that he would then, that would be two years in a row with a touchdown rate that nobody does. So I've probably got him right around five and a half percent touchdown rate and right around seven and a half yards per attempt, which is good, but not near as outlandish as what last year was. Okay. Final thing on the Ravens, just true or false. The targets are going to be very concentrated between Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Those guys are going to get really

the bulk of it, and they're the only significant target getters. Believe that? True. Yeah, yeah, I do. Good. Let's go to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, over-under, nine wins. Under.

Over. All right. We got Ben Roethlisberger. QB 16 between Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. James Conner is a round three running back going in between Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson right toward the end of round three for James Conner, maybe round four.

Juju's round four. He's wide receiver 14. And I took him 23rd in a PPR league just an hour or two ago. And if I didn't take him there, he might have gone 24th to Ben. I don't know. Ben, you tell me. Yeah, I told you. So am I cute?

Right. Okay. That's what I thought. Deontay Johnson, round seven between Jarvis Landry and Will Fuller. Deontay Johnson's wide receiver 34. James Washington, wide receiver 73. Eric Ebron 22nd tight end off the board. All right. So that was the number to know is 179. Heath, what is 179?

179 is Deontay Johnson's weight? The difference between pass attempts for the Steelers in 2019 and 2018. They threw 179 more times in 2018 than they did in 2019. That's a lot. Yeah, that is a lot. That's a lot of passes. That is, yeah.

So why only 145-ish targets or whatever for Juju? 135 for Heath, 143 for Ben. Come on, give me 170. Let's forget last year happened and just think what we thought a year ago this time. Well, we both have him coming out as wide receiver 10, and part of it is it's not easy to project 170. So last year when we were projecting that,

I know I had him as the potentially the league leader and targets um you know that was saying something it was saying that like they had no one else and i believed in juju's talent a ton deontay johnson has stepped up they've drafted chase claypool they've brought in eric ebron there's enough other mouths to feed that at 143 targets, he actually comes out as my 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7th highest targeted receiver in the league. And four of those seven are within six of him.

They're just right above him. There's only three that are like well out of his range. Michael Thomas, Devonta Adams, and Julio. Okay. In my projections. And you guys have Ben Roethlisberger throwing for almost 4,600 yards,

which would be no shock at all to Ben Roethlisberger. He does that per 16 games. That's what he does, but that's always been with Antonio Brown. And if Dave were here, he'd say, well, look what he did before Antonio Brown. It wasn't like that. So that's a lot of faith in Ben Roethlisberger. How does he throw for almost 4,600 yards, which would be among the league leaders,

and only finish in your projections as QB 17, QB 16? Well, he's not going to do hardly anything with his legs and he's probably going to have a pretty decent interception total pulling some of that down as well. Okay. But I think the big difference between pre Antonio Brown and what I'm expecting and he's projection seemed to expect it too, is we're both projecting him for over 600 pass attempts. And you just said that their pass attempts dropped almost 200. They threw 675 times to lead the league in 2018. We both have them for just over 600. Early in Roethlisberger's career, it looks like in his first maybe eight or nine seasons, he topped out at like 513. He was a low volume passer.

And I feel really uncomfortable with my total number of pass attempts for them. I don't know what direction to go with it. Yeah, sorry. Right, that's the fun part because their defense is great. They've had good defenses before and they've still thrown the ball.

Like I could... Okay, so if you look at like two years ago they led the league in passing they were 17th in scoring defense but three years ago the Steelers had the seventh best scoring defense and they were actually sixth and pass pass attempts the year before that they were ninth and pass attempts with the tenth tenth best scoring defense so I think they've shown that even when they have good defenses, they're still willing to throw the ball. And another thing that I wanted to point out in your projections,

you don't have 50 catches for James Conner. And that has been a layup for Steelers running backs with Ben Roethlisberger. Obviously, Le'Veon Bell shattered that. James Conner in 2018 was on pace for 68 catches. And even last year, he was on pace for 54 catches, and that was with him leaving a couple games early with injury. So talk about that, why you don't have,

even though you have Conner as a top 20 running back, you don't have a huge passing game role for him. 34 catches for Heath and 41 for Ben. I have a few targets shifting toward tight ends with Eric Gameron coming in and Vance McDonald. But I have Jalen Samuels being involved in the passing game. And then I have Anthony McFarlane, also the rookie being involved a little bit in the passing game.

And I have the combination of Samuels and McFarlane having about the same number of catches as Connor. And so, yeah, if he's giving away half of the running back catches to two other backs, then, then he's not going to project for 50 catches. And yeah.

And again, like I've, it's the same exact thing. I've chopped them up just a little bit and they've got, they've got way too many mouths to feed. It's a lot different than, than what we saw. I think the reason people want to take him in the third is that upside that we saw in

2018, but that was him and Jalen Samuels as a rookie coming out of college where he was an H-back. Naheem Hines was NC State's lead back. He was their H-back. He had more career catches than rush attempts. Jalen Samuels, that is. He was never really going to challenge for

a heavy early down role. Now have we have a couple years of jalen samuels having a role in this offense and catching passes and being used on passing downs and being pretty good at it we also have benny snell on the team now who got pretty solid rushing work last year and we have anthony mcfarland another new addition it's a way different scenario behind connor than it was when he took over for Le'Veon Bell's holdout two years ago. Yeah, but last year, until Connor got injured, he really was dominating the carries and the catches. I mean, there was this stat. While he was healthy before his first injury, he had 19 catches and Samuels had 13. That does seem like a pretty even split, but eight of

those catches for Samuels came in one game. For the most part, he really didn't get catches. He had like 12 catches one game against the Colts, and Connor missed that game. So they talked about it last offseason. They're going to share the carries and split the work. And they really didn't. I mean, it was Connor's backfield. I do think Connor still has first-round upside.

You do? I don't know for sure that that's the way they're going to behave. Are you more or less confident in this offense than you were a year ago? Or the same? Less? Less, obviously. We don't even know if the quarterback's elbow's going to hold up. We know if it doesn't, they're screwed. Okay, but that's a huge if, but that's the

only if, right? I mean, their offense should be better with Deontay Johnson since people have such high hopes for him. If you say the skill position talent only, I'll say I'm more excited about this. Yeah. I am so like

I just don't get it on the Deontay Johnson thing at all. I'll admit that I'm a coward because I think at the beginning when I started doing my projections, I kind of had Deontay Johnson and James Washington in like a split pretty much even because that's kind of what they were last year. Washington was actually more productive.

And then with Claypool being added with Ebron being added, I feel like any of those guys could be number two on the team and targets. And it wouldn't be that. I don't know why. I know why, but I don't feel confident that Johnson should be viewed as clearly as the number two to Juju as he is.

All right, let's go on to the Cleveland Browns. Eight and a half wins for the Cleveland Browns. That's an easy under for me. Under, yeah. Over. What? Come on, Ben. Freddie Kitchens is gone, Adam. Freddie Kitchens is gone.

And I actually, as much as you want to make a mockery of that, I think that is a significant thing. And I think, I mean, look, this team was very talented. I think the hype was warranted last year, and I think Kitchens just derailed them. I think this is going to be one of the surprise teams of this year. And maybe it won't surprise many people,

but post-hype teams, whatever. So you're taking the Browns to win more games than the Steelers? Yeah. ADP review, Baker Mayfield, QB 15,

going in between Daniel Jones and Ben Roethlisberger. Would you guys rather have Baker Mayfield or Ben Roethlisberger? Ben. Yeah. Yep.

Nick Chubb, 15th pick overall, RB11 between Aaron Jones and Austin Eckler. Would you rather have Nick Chubb or Austin Eckler? Half PPR. Probably Chubb. It's funny. Both me and Heath have Chubb in our top 10 in PPR, in projections. I would rather have Eckler. top 10 in PPR in projections. I, I would rather have Eckler and I need to look now because we just did a PPR

draft and a half PPR draft. I think I drafted Eckler in the PPR version and Ben drafted Eckler in the half PPR. I did. And I took him before Chubb. You're right. But I, I have not looked at my projections enough and I. And I took him before Chubb. You're right. But I have not looked at my projections enough.

And there is reason to like Chubb. I'm telling you, I just did my projections. Like, I just did Cleveland yesterday morning. I just don't know if I can take anything you say seriously now, Ben. I like Eckler. I have him one spot ahead of Chubb. And that's my PPR ranks. And that's where he was.

When you say half PPR, and contrary to what I just did today, I'm going to say Chubb, and that's my PPR ranks, and that's where he was. When you say half PPR, and contrary to what I just did today, I'm going to say Chubb now. Now that I see how high I am in a projection. I'm lower than you, Heath. You've got him 230 more rushing yards than I do. I love Chubb. You guys

do. Well, what jumped out to me about your projection was that you're not give you got 302 carries for nick chubb heath and ben you have him for 275 and kareem hunt 99 carries for heath and 87 for ben so you do not the way i see this projections do not see kareem hunt as a big threat to nick chubb no but my projections do see kareem Hunt as a big asset in PPR. I just think he's going to play out of the slot a lot. They've talked about that. And he's good enough as a change of pace back. It's a lot easier to be hyper-efficient when you're getting seven or

eight carries per game than it is when you're getting 20, obviously. And I think he could just have some absolutely explosive games and do a ton in the passing game. So I think, obviously, when you look at this team, Ben, you actually have Baker Mayfield projected for 23 more pass attempts than Heath does.

But that being said, where do they rank in terms of passive volume? Like, does this, do you see this being a very run heavy offense? Yeah, I have,

um, about a percentage and a half, a percentage point and a half percentage point, one, one and a half percentage points towards the run. Um, I had them a little bit faster pace than league averaged. They,

they, I don't believe they were last year. And I think that's why he's numbers are a little bit faster paced than league averaged I don't believe they were last year And I think that's why Heath's numbers are a little bit down Yeah, I don't think Stefanski was either Yeah, I don't think he was either I think Stefanski's Basically, I think Stefanski was influenced more by Zimmer Stefanski has talked a lot about analytics and all these things Tempo is a very popular subject right now.

And I expect that Cleveland can play a little faster in part also because of the fact that they played a little bit better and a little bit faster in 2018 under Baker Mayfield. They were still successful. I think Mayfield, when he was in college, he played at a quicker pace. I think if this team is good, like I'm hoping, they'll run more plays in that sense as well. Or I'm projecting, I should say, not hoping. So those are kind of the reasons why I wind up with a little bit of an improved pace from either Stefanski's

or the Browns' recent history. In terms of Odell Beckham, you guys have him as wide receiver 17 and 18. Jarvis Landry, wide receiver 28 and 29. Austin Hooper, tight end 12 for Heath, tight end 15 for Ben. But if we look at Beckham, targets are about the same as they were last year in terms of your projections, 132-ish. Four more catches, about 60 more yards, four more touchdowns because he only caught four last year.

You're projecting him for eight touchdowns, both of you. But with the Giants, other than his rookie year when he had 131 targets in 12 games and he turned that into 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns, a pace he could never sustain. He had 159, then 169 targets, and then only 124, and that was in 12 games and he was disappointing season long, but was good.

Anyway, how can you be an elite receiver with 133 targets? Can you? And I guess, actually, now that I think about it, it's not too far from what you projected Juju for, but I feel like you guys are a lot higher on Juju than you are on Beckham. There's a lot there in that question. I'm sorry.

Yeah. For me, part of it is the Stefan Diggs role that we've talked about in the Stefanski offense. We've talked about they're going to shift towards two tight end sets. Whether that's David Njoku or he gets traded and it's rookie Harrison Bryant, they're probably going to have two tight ends get a decent number of targets

just like the Vikings did last year with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith. Jarvis Landry is going to get plenty of work himself and you know the running backs are going to get plenty of targets particularly kareem hunt and so you it makes a lot of sense i think to limit odell beckham's targets in a projection now maybe that's wrong maybe odell beckham has just been banged up the last couple years and and we'll, we'll see that, you know, we were missing this obvious post, you know, Lowell comeback to his, his previous successes. But even as I'm optimistic about the Browns, I have a hard time seeing Beckham being 150 target receiver,

particularly in this offense. And in that role where Diggs didn't even get a hundred targets last year in that role. And Diggs is super talented. I've got them separated by eight spots in my rankings, I think. They're separated by nine fantasy points on the season. So I'm not really that much different on Beckham and Juju. It's just that it's that crowded at that point at wide receiver. Okay.

Last team to cover here in the division is the Cincinnati Bengals. First pick in the draft, Joe Burrow. Five and a half wins for Cincinnati Bengals. First pick in the draft, Joe Burrow. Five and a half wins for the Bengals. Over. Under. Okay. Here's your

stat. 6.9. Since the start of 2018, Tyler Boyd averaged a touchdown every 9.8 catches in eight games with A.J. Green and every 16.7 catches in 22 games without A.J. Green. That is a difference of 6.9 catches. So a lot more touchdowns when A.J. Green was on the field

than when he was off the field for Tyler Boyd. That's a really obscure way to make 6.9 the number. I didn't do it. I did not do it. It wasn't me. Joe Burrow is QB 18 in between golf and Tannehill in ADP. Joe Mixon is the eighth overall pick, the seventh running back off the board.

Derek Henry and Miles Sanders around him. AJ Green and Tyler Boyd are both round seven picks. They are wide receivers 29 and 31 respectively. It goes AJ Green, Michael Gallup and Tyler Boyd are both round seven picks. They are wide receivers 29 and 31, respectively. It goes A.J. Green, Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, Debo Samuel. All right. How do you guys project those two wide receivers? They are going almost back-to-back in ADP right now. Heath, should they be?

I don't think they should. I don't feel very comfortable with the bingles as a whole um rookie quarterback super weird offseason superstar wide receiver that hasn't played in two years like i don't know why i don't feel comfortable with them everything's right there i have them projected for a similar number of targets but green for more yards and more touchdowns. I don't really think like there's there's a reason to hope that AJ Green's fully rested after a year off. He's energized with a new young quarterback and he's a top 15 wide receiver. Like Tyler Boyd might be a top 15 wide receiver over 16 games, but he won't actually be a top 15 wide receiver.

What does that mean? It means that if you, as you would often say, if you finish somewhere because you played 16 games, he won't ever be a top 15 guy on a per game basis. Oh, gotcha. Because he was wide receiver 17 last year. Right. No, two years ago.

On that last season. Was he? He was wide receiver 26 on a per game basis, but was wide receiver 17 in PPR. Oh, yeah. Yeah, in PPR. But actually,

I think we're both right. So I think in 2018, yeah, he was wide receiver 17. He was better. I'd have been 17, but sure. He caught 90 passes last year, Tyler Boyd. So, yeah, how come you guys...

He's so interesting to me. He's somebody I never know. I don't feel comfortable drafting him, Tyler Boyd. Tyler Boyd's one of those guys that I was really high on coming out of college because he had a phenomenal prospect profile at Pitt, was a young producer, and then he was bad for two years.

And I kind of gave up. And then he was good again. And he's been good ever since. So I'm willing to believe that it just took him a little bit of time to adjust to the NFL level. But this guy's a good football player. He's Jarvis Landry. He's always going to be underrated, I think, because he's not flashy, but he's going to put up numbers his whole career.

I believe that. Your projections have Joe Burrow approaching the rookie record for passing yards. He'd be one of the best ever. You have him for more than 4,200 passing yards, only 26 touchdowns, plus another 200-plus rushing yards and two more touchdowns, right around QB 20. But what do you think about that? It's an aggressive projection of 4,200 yards plus passing for Joe Burrow. It's really weird that we have him at 42 and I got over 4,000 passing yards as a rookie, which almost no one does. And he still doesn't crack the top 15 fantasy

quarterbacks because he's probably if history is any indicator, still doesn't crack the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks. Because he's probably, if history is any indicator, it doesn't have to be, he could be the greatest rookie quarterback ever. If history is any indicator, he's probably going to have a high interception rate and a low touchdown rate, and that hurts in fantasy. But no one has ever done what he did in college, and very, very few number one picks

have stepped into this type of skill position talent. And I would venture to say almost none. I can't think of any that had a guy like A.J. Green returning and a guy like Tyler Boyd. And I still think John Ross is good. Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne, and a rookie T.Y. Hilton. No, not as good. Not as good.

Because Hilton was a rookie, I think. Otherwise, I would say... Yeah, I mean... And Andrew Luck set the record. Andrew Luck set the record. Andrew Luck set the record with like plus 4,300 passing guard, like 4,350 or something. But you're right.

It's a great situation. Good call. Good pull. But yeah, I think I'd still probably take the Bengals over that. Yeah, I don't blame you. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. I don't remember the rest of his team.

Probably not very good. But the Bengals do have a lot of talent. Do you feel... How talent do you feel how comfortable do you feel with your aj green projection you both have them for 75 ish catches 1060 ish yards six seven touchdowns wide receiver 21 for heath wide receiver 26 for ben not comfortable at all if he's like i'm projecting everybody for 16 games so i'm just assuming no injuries if he doesn't get hurt'm projecting everybody for 16 games. So I'm just assuming no injuries. If he doesn't get hurt all year,

I feel fine about it. Does this mean anything to you? Since 2009, there have been eight quarterbacks selected. Number one, only Steve Smith, number one overall, only Steve Smith had more than five touchdown catches from in,

in that quarterback's rookie season among number one wide receivers. Also, T.Y. Hilton did it, but he was the number two receiver. But as I've pointed out before, rookie quarterbacks don't throw a lot of touchdowns. Kind of a weird thing. Now, having said that, Baker Mayfield set the record two years ago and Daniel Jones was on pace for like 30 touchdowns or something like that, which would have set a new record.

So maybe things are changing. And another thing I would note that's interesting about Burrow and this offense, they were surprisingly fast-paced last year. I kind of slowed him down. Heath still has him quite a bit above league average in terms of play volume. That's helpful, you know?

It's always helpful. Okay. Well, I just want to throw that little quarterback stat out there. You all can sit there and think it over at home. We got the NFC North when we come back. The Vikings, are they going to win nine games? And can Adam Thielen really get like 120-plus targets? We'll tell you when we come back on Fantasy Football today.

Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert, as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals, be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Let's go to the Minnesota Vikings as we get to our NFC North projections here. Kirk Cousins is QB 22. Dalvin Cook is the sixth pick,

the fifth running back off the board. Adam Thielen is a round four pick. He is wide receiver 15. Justin Jefferson is wide receiver 49, and the tight ends are outside the top 20. And the number to know is, Heath, it's 466. Do you know what that is? That is the number of pass attempts for the Vikings,

which I believe was the third lowest total in the NFL last year. You are correct, sir. All right, and you guys have them for more than 500 pass attempts. So that's good. I struggled with their volume. I mean, there's some good research that's shown that their run heaviness last year was in large part dictated by playing from ahead at a very high rate. And you just always kind of expect that we'll regress a little bit. I don't think Minnesota, it would surprise anyone to think that they won't maybe be

quite as good as last year, but maybe they will. But I still have them very run. Okay. So I think Adam Thielen is the guy. Is that you, Ben? You okay? Yeah. All right. Good. All right. Just let us know. I just got something in my throat. It's not, you know, it's nothing to worry about. How come I'm the only one drinking water? Like you guys never drink water. I have water right here. Did you just pause the show so you could go get water? Is that what just happened? No, I paused the show because my kids are freaking out. But let my wife deal with that.

I want to know about Adam Thielen because you're telling me... I was worried that the targets in your projections would be like 110. But Heath, you got him for 132 and Ben for 126. Heath, you have Thielen for 132 and Ben for 126. Heath, you have Thielen, wide receiver 13, Ben, wide receiver 19.

And again, I don't think the difference between wide receiver 13 and 19 is probably all that much. Even though they don't throw very much, I would assume it's going to be pretty concentrated. And I expect Thielen to be a little bit less efficient, but I don't have anybody else on the team getting 90 targets. So I expect him to kind of dominate target share. Yep.

Okay. Yeah. I think I have Justin Jefferson at 81 targets. I have their tight ends in the 50s both. And Dalvin Cook's going to get 70. I mean, it actually feels like a pretty easy projection. I have them pretty concentrated. We know they're going to run a lot of two tight end sets.

We know they're going to throw to both those tight ends. And then it's, okay, it's Thielen and Jefferson. There's probably not going to be a ton of BC Johnson this year. They don't really have any other receivers. And Dalvin probably not going to be a ton of B.C. Johnson this year. They don't really have any other receivers. And Dalvin Cook's going to get a bunch of targets. Well, okay. Let me tell you why I bring this up.

Do you think they'll be one of... Do you think they'll be bottom five in past attempts? Close. I think I have them projected. I wish I had... ben could probably do this really quick but then every time i change it i'd have to tell him you have to change the numbers again um i i think i have i'd like to have a list of like all the teams and how i have them projected in past attempts but i'm pretty certain i have them bottom five i think the titans like right

at 500 i'm not sure anybody ravens are, but other than that, they may be the third worst again. Okay. So I looked at the five teams that finished bottom five and pass attempts each of the last two years. I took their target leader and 102 so not one team had a player reach the target marks that you guys set for adam thielen the closest was kittle who had 122 targets or was actually on pace for 122 targets based on his 14 game pace, 14 games. So that's what scared me a little bit off a feeling when I saw that. That's a quirk of projections.

We both have them over 500. And I can tell you that each of the past several seasons, I think it's exactly five teams have been sub 500 pass attempts. I know it's for sure an average of five teams. I think it's been exactly five every year over the last four or five. I think it's since 2014 when passing efficiency kind of started ticking up. There was enforcement of new rules, yada, yada, yada. Not new rules, but the defensive holding and illegal contact

increased enforcement. That's kind of like the bridge to the modern NFL was 2014 offseason. And since then, we've seen that many teams below 500 per year, five. We're both projecting this team over 500 targets, but as our third lowest projection, because you don't project teams way away from the median. You're kind of moving everyone back toward the median. And a lot of the teams you just quoted are probably teams that we would have projected higher, but something went wrong like the Steelers last year.

Ben Roethlisberger gets hurt. All of a sudden, they lose 170 targets, right, or 170 pass attempts. That completely changes the way their offense works. So we're projecting a healthy Minnesota team to probably not be bottom five, even though we were projecting them in our bottom five, because there will be some teams that everything goes wrong for them, and they wind up doing what Washington did last year, just running their season out.

It's kind of a – I don't know. We don't know who that's going to happen to, but it's going to happen to some teams. Okay, fair enough. And you know, honestly, is that it for Minnesota? They're kind of vanilla. Yeah, I don't think there's much to talk about with Dalvin Cook. I do wonder, with what they've seen over the last three years if alexander madison gets a little bit bit bigger piece of the pie in the running game than what i've given him i don't like it if minnesota thinks they're

a playoff team they don't have much reason to think they can give Dalvin Cook 20 touches a game and have him available in the playoffs. Okay. And you guys have Madison projected for what? 100, 117 carries for Heath and 97 for Ben. One thing that's notable, I have Irv Smith over Kyle Rudolph. He was playing more snaps down the stretch last year. He's a really good prospect. They're going to use two tight end sets.

He might be the guy that winds up kind of filling this Stefan Diggs role if Justin Jefferson's not ready. I mean, there's some chance for Irv Smith to be the sleeper tight end this year. Let's go to the Green Bay Packers, guys. And you guys have Aaron Rodgers. It's QB 10 for Heath

and QB 15 for Ben. And that might be a scoring system thing since the projections are not too far off. But anyway, first of all, nine wins for the Packers over under. Over. They're going to get exactly nine. I'm going to win so much money nailing all these.

I love it. Exactly. Okay. Uh, do we have a number to know for this? I think five and a half is what we have here in the notes. Aaron Jones got five and a half passes per game without Devante Adams and 2.25 passes per game with Devante Adams. We talked about that a lot. Yeah.

I think another number to know would be like 4.4 because I believe that's Aaron Rogers touchdown rate over the past two seasons combined. And he is the NFL's all time leading leader in touchdown rating. Maybe the only quarterback besides Russell Wilson at 6% or better. And a lot of that coincides with Aaron Jones scoring all these touchdowns. And I think it's really interesting whether or not like, will Rogers go back to being a higher touchdown guy or can Aaron Jones lose 50 touches, not get as many catches,

but still be a top 15 running back because he scores 12 touchdowns again. Well, you do have him top 15 running back because he scores 12 touchdowns again. Well, you do have him top 15. You have Aaron Jones 14th and Ben has him 11th with right around 200 carries and 45 catches. So pretty similar projections for you guys. Ben with maybe two more touchdowns than Heath. AJ Dillon getting over 100 carries. And then this was one of the wide receivers

that you all projected for a ton of targets. Devontae Adams, 170 targets for Heath, 164 for Ben. Let's talk about Alan Lazard. Heath, you have him as wide receiver 37, and Ben is wide receiver 57. 25 targets separating you two. Ben, I'll give you the first word on Alan Lazard, the low guy on Lazard.

I think Heath wants the first word. Heath already had the first word. He went, whoo! So I'll also give you the first word on Alan Lazard, the low guy on Lazard. I think Heath wants the first word. Heath? Well, Heath already had the first word. He went, woo! So I'll also give you the second word. What was the woo? That's what I want to know. That's a big difference.

Oh. Yeah. I mean, I like Alan Lazard. I clearly don't have him projected for quite the target share that Heath does. And I kind of am trying to figure out why as we're, as I'm talking, because I was wondering who they go into. Yeah.

Well, he has more pass attempts for the Packers, 19 more pass attempts. And he couldn't find enough pass attempts for J state Sternburner. So I'm like, who is catching all these passes for the Packers? Yeah, I have,

I have Devin Funches getting 57 and Marquez Valdez-Scantling getting 34 targets. So, you know, a 90 target third receiver, if you combine those two together. And I couldn't find enough for Sternberger because both Mercedes Lewis and Robert Tondin played ahead of him last year. And I projected that duo for the same amount of targets

as Sternberger. I still have Sternberger as the number one, but I think that they're going to use multiple tight ends. Essentially. They were using both those guys behind Jimmy Graham last year. And so I still have plenty of tight end targets is the point, but I just didn't give Sternberger a big target share. I found it.

I found it. It's you have, Ben has AJ Dillon getting twice as many catches as Heath does. Well, I have four catches. No, you have them for four, and Ben has them for eight. So again, we're talking about Al Lazard here, who's wide receiver 57 for

Ben and wide receiver 37 for Heath. I thought it was just that you liked Lazard. You just thought this was going to be a really run-heavy offense, Ben. That was your concern. Well, I do. I think Heath and I both have it that way. And I'm just a little bit more toward the pass than Heath. But the big issue is, yes, Devontae Adams is going to get so many targets. I do have the Packers' projected wins being –

their projected wins are lower than their wins last year. So that's why I shifted them a little bit towards the past because I think that game script might dictate a little bit more passing. But they're still not going to be like super pass heavy. And then DeJuan Adams is just going to get a million targets. So I'm on the clock again in the Scott Fish Bowl during another podcast. I think I am too. It's my round four pick.

And one of the quarterbacks we've talked about is available still, Ben Roethlisberger. Wow. Have you had a QB heavy draft? You're all the way to Roethlisberger? Yeah. Yes. That's why I got Tyree Kiel at 3. Yes. That's why I got Tyree

killed at 3.6. And Jimmy Garoppolo's there. He was good in this format last year. Yeah. Love his completion percentage. 69% completion percentage last year. This is a good format for him. But he only throws like six passes

a game, so that hurts. Josh Allen's still there as well, This is a good format for him. But he only throws like six passes a game, so that hurts. Josh Allen's still there as well, which is a terrible format for him, but he's never available when these guys are. So, why don't you guys just make my pick for me? What are you

choosing between here? Roethlisberger? You gotta get a QB. You haven't taken one yet, right? I have zero quarterbacks. In a super flex where it really drops off. You can get negative QB points if you don't have a decent quarterback golf still there. Baker Burrow in this format. I have Roethlisberger QB 13 one spot behind Cam Newton and Newton is still there and five spots ahead of Josh Allen

and also ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo. You know what? Cam Newton, if he starts, I think Cam Newton playing for the Patriots is probably an Adam's going to just

throw his hat at this comment. Maybe I think he's probably a plus throw his hat at this comment, maybe. I think he's probably a plus in terms of completion percentage in this offense. Close. I got him at 65.2%. That's not like a huge minus. He'll run for first down.

So the issue with, Josh Allen will run for first downs, but his completion percentage is so bad that he loses all those gains. Newton shouldn't lose those gains that he'll get from his legs. So, so I still need you guys to teach me how to do, how to use this website because like,

I thought that I had a draft list. I pre-drafted, you know, I was all ready to go and it all disappeared. So what round are you in? Still round two. I'm actually three picks away. I thought it was up,

but I'm three picks away. Um, I got Patrick Mahomes in round one. And like my number one player at this point would be Kyler Murray, but I don't want to take two quarterbacks with my first two picks here in a super flex league. So I'm probably going to take Josh Jacobs or Julio Jones or something like that.

But, um, let's go back to at the two TVs of the two, three turn. Okay. Well, that's different. I just want to make sure I get,

Oh yeah. I'm also thinking about Zach Ertz cause it's one and a half point per reception for tight ends. Okay. So what, what team are we on? We just did the Packers. Let's go to the lions and the bears to do,

I think. Yeah. Like we did not talk about, um, no, we talked about all the Packers. Nevermind. Okay.

Let's talk about the, uh, the Chicago bears. Hmm. Who are you? Who are you projecting a quarterback? Nick Foles. He's,

I've been trying to tell Heath, it's going to be Nick Foles. I'm trying to tell him, but he's, he's stubborn. He almost convinced me at one point, like a month ago. And then the report came out that Trubisky was in Chicago throwing with all the wide receivers and Foles was still not in town.

So I just. That really? All along. I am of the opinion that Mitchell Trubisky still has a lot more upside than Nick Foles. And we have not seen, we've seen Trubisky be really awful. Nick Foles wasn't good last year. I don't think the bears want upside.

I think they want stability and they have Nagy who coached with the Eagles when Foles was there and they have who, who's their OC, Bill Lazor, who was also there at the same time. And then they brought in John DeFilippo, who of course was the quarterback's coach with the Eagles. This was later after Nagy and Lazor, but was a quarterback coach with the Eagles when Foles won his championship

and then was part of bringing Foles to Jacksonville because he was the OC there last year and now he's the QB coach with the Bears and they traded for Foles they overpaid him they restructured him to give him guaranteed money next season and player opt-out so he they gave Foles a decent contract in terms of the flexibility it gives Foles and then they declined Trubisky's fifth year option so they don't even have him after this year they just decided they're done with Trubisky they're not tied to him next year at all. Be kind of an odd thing, like a series of moves

to then give Trubisky a chance to potentially earn a big contract. I mean, that's the way I'm looking at it. Okay, well, did it affect your projection of Allen Robinson? You guys have pretty big target numbers for him 150 targets for alan robinson more than 90 catches uh why this is funny i have more ppr points yeah i know wide receiver 15 and he's he's wide receiver 8 because i just love to project good wide receivers for like huge huge numbers i did think that was pretty cool um yeah so right ben has a higher projection for more

fantasy points for Robinson, yet he's wide receiver eight for Heath and wide receiver 15 for Ben. All right, that's aggressive, though. Wide receiver eight. Well, I mean, it's aggressive for both of you to be so high on Allen Robinson. So I have him 10 spots behind my wide receiver 10 total points for the

season behind my wide receiver eight spot actually. So it's probably similar for Heath where behind my wide receiver eight spot actually. So it's probably similar for Heath where he's wide receiver eight, but a lot of the guys right behind him are not far behind him in points. But yeah, I mean, I, I think what Robinson did last year, dominated targets in this offense. I think if it is Nick Foles, arguably will be the best quarterback he's ever played with.

And I agree with Heath, Like, he's not good. But another reason I think that they'll start him is that, you know, the Ravens started Joe Flacco for way too long because he won a Super Bowl. Nick Foles won a Super Bowl. Like, that does matter to decision makers within the NFL, I would say. And I think standing in the pocket, not scrambling, and he's going to probably throw more because of that. It's all like

pretty positive for Robinson in terms of volume and in terms of potentially being the most accurate quarterback he's played with. Anyone else you're excited about in this office? The number to know for this team was about Tariq Cohen. 105. He ran 105 routes out of the slot, Tariq Cohen, in 2019

per Pro Football Focus. He lined up there 143 times. That was 42 more slot routes than any other running back in the league. And he had 64 more snaps where he lined up out wide. So Tariq Cohen in the projections. Let's see what we got here. RB 23 for Heath and 21 for Ben. And that's, you know, he's a great PPR option this year.

I mean, especially when you look, get into the projection, you see that Taylor Gabriel is not on the team anymore. They replaced him with Ted Ginn. Ginn's going to get deep shots that Gabriel was maybe getting, but they use Gabriel a lot

on gadget plays, split out, bubble screens. That stat you just gave is really positive for Tariq Cohen, even though he wasn't efficient, as Heath has noted. But I think it's positive for Cohen to continue to see a lot of targets. And David Montgomery, 260-ish carries.

You're both like 255 for Ben, 265 for Heath. That's a ton of carries, and he's not even a top 20 running back for you guys. 24th for Heath and 25th for Ben. Yeah, I think he has more upside definitely than that. It's just how much of that efficiency from last year that we've talked about is going to bounce back. I feel pretty confident that some of it will.

That carry total is really not that much different than what pace he was on after they got rid of Mike Davis finally. So I feel pretty confident that 250, 260 it'd be nice if he could catch 30 passes too. It's just going to come down to how many touchdowns he gets and how much the efficiency bounces back.

I wouldn't be all that surprised if he averages like 4.3 yards per carry this year though, and ends up having a 1300 yard season in total yards. Yeah. What's the difference between David Montgomery and Sony Michelle? More catches. Michelle's probably... I feel more confident in Montgomery's role.

Yeah. I'm making the case there is a big difference, but when you think about it, it's an interesting comparison. Montgomery will catch maybe 20 passes. Michelle might not catch 10. I mean, there's a little bit of a difference there. It doesn't sound like a huge one, but there is.

And there's Rex Burkhead and Damian Harris and Cam Newton, for that matter. All right, our last team is the Detroit Lions. This will be a fun one. Oh, don't try Jimmy Graham to wrap up the Bears. Six and a half. Bears monitoring. Six and a half wins for Detroit over under. I'm going to go over.

No, this is my favorite under of the show, Ben. Come on. You think they're going to be that bad? They got a good offensive line now. Do they? I think they have a bad offensive line. Don't they have Glass now? No.

The other one? I don't think they do. I thought he left. Oh. I'll don't think they do. I thought he left. Oh. I'll don't check. I thought they lost like two of their best offensive. Reg now? Did they lose both those guys?

They have Reg now still. They don't have Glass Gow or Glass now. Glass Gow. Yeah, he's on the Broncos. Is that right? Graham Glass Gow. Yes. He's on the Broncos. Is that right? Graham Glasgow. Yes, he's on the Broncos. He was on the Lions.

Yeah, I can understand. Their names are fairly similar. So I have no faith in Matt Patricia, but I think Ben has a lot of faith in Matthew Stafford. He takes him all the time. So we look at this projection here. You both have him projected right around QB 12. 12 for Ben ben 13 for heath and um what do you want to say about the projections for the detroit lions what stands out

uh guessing on what at what point deandre swift takes over the backfield and what the touch split is between those two yeah we looks like we both went with a similar kind of distribution. You have 20 more touches for Swift. It looks like you have more receptions for carry-on, which is interesting. I have Swift being a lot more used on the passing downs. It's hard for rookie running backs to get on the field on passing downs. Yeah, that's fair. That's a good point. I have about 15 more carries for Swift. So we have a similar distribution,

but I agree with Heath that I don't feel comfortable. I projected Bo Scarborough to get like 67 carries, which isn't a lot, but it would be a third running back stealing some of the work in kind of Matt Patricia slash Bill Belichick fashion. It's kind of the way I'm thinking about it. He was fairly efficient late last year for them once every other back on the lines got hurt.

I'm projecting a pretty big gap between Kenny Galladay and Marvin Jones, which I don't think Heath is or many of you guys, because I know there's been some question of me not being so high on Marvin Jones. They were very close in target rate last year, but Galladay was higher the year before, more targets the year before in only 15 games. He's also entering his prime. Marvin Jones is a 30-year-old exiting his prime who's never hit 110 targets in his career. So like he's projecting 113. It's a similar to his rate last year, but it would be a career high. I think I'm projecting a career high at 108 as well in his age

30 year exiting his prime. Like I said, I think this gap actually is going to spread even though they were similar last year. And I think you don't want to tether too much to to that and he may disagree and then the the other big one i want to note is i think tj hawkinson is the guy that might actually steer steal some of marvin jones thunder uh wasn't very good last year but very good prospect profile high draft pick um they obviously didn't have very good quarterback play late last year it would not surprise me if he had a big year too i see the targets for kenny galladay 125 for heath and 131 for ben he had 116 last year and with matthew stafford he was on pace for 124 targets i just want to say like the target thing is something that Ben would get mad at you

for doing I think in terms of the way that he represented Barbara Jones targets it is 100% true that he has not ever had 110 targets in a season you're the one that gets mad at Azar for projecting out things I don't even get you do that all he wants

you love to say what I'm going to say they're not even things that I would wants. You love to say what I'm going to say. They're not even things that I would say. Okay. When I get mad at easier for doing, he was on pace for 110, his first year in Detroit.

He had 107, his second year in Detroit. He was on pace for 110, his third year in Detroit and like 115 last year in Detroit. Like his 16 game pace is pretty strongly. I've got about 113 maybe. Yeah. So you're right around, you're saying it's been consistently in that range.

Yes. Every year it's been right around 110. 108 to 112. Yeah. I'm not saying you're projecting some massive career year. My point was Marvin Jones, and I've said this before on the pod, is a secondary player. This guy has never been an elite target getter. You can go back to college when Keenan Allen came in two years behind him and immediately outproduced him or produced about the same as him as a true freshman. And then in Marvin Jones' senior year, completely stole the show and outproduced him. That matters.

And then it matters that he went to the NFL and was a third receiver for most of his career. And then he came to the Lions. He's been efficient at times, but this guy is not somebody that teams have ever at any point in his career leaned on. And I don't buy that just because last year their target rates were similar, that he's anything like Kenny Galladay, who was a dominant producer in college, higher draft pick than expected,

really good profile or good combine as well. Good athleticism, was very productive as a rookie before his hamstring, scored two touchdowns in his first career game, then had a hamstring injury. Very productive in year two with a better target rate than last year. Galladay entering his prime, like I said, I think that's a guy that you go all the way back to college

and that's a legitimate number one. Jones, to me, is not. That's just a bigger picture view in my mind. But I don't disagree necessarily with your specific target number. But doesn't everybody feel that way, that Kenny Galladay is a legit number one and Marvin Jones isn't? I think I've been hearing from, maybe not from Heath,

but maybe from Jamie or from Dave, that Galladay and Jones should be a lot closer in ADP. And I think that gap is pretty significant. Last year, Marvin Jones had them. I didn't necessarily say in ADP. I've just referenced the fact that they've generally been pretty close in targets. Galladay is number one, but it's,

it's more of a one a and one B than most teams. Marvin Jones had a massive jump in catch rate last year, 68%. And he, the previous three seasons, he had been about 56%. Did his depth of target go down last year? No,

he just caught more deep balls. It was just like a spike in efficiency. I don't think it's me with the advanced stats. Who am I? All balls. It's just like a spike in efficiency. I don't think it's that. Look at me with the advanced stats. Who am I? Alright, so we gotta go. I gotta figure out how to deal with the pre-draft stuff. I have a big issue here.

I have all these guys on my pre-draft list and I rank them, but when my time comes to pick, maybe I want to change the order. So how do I make sure it doesn't just auto-pick for me? It will auto-pick for you. Well, I got to clear it. I got to clear it.

The depth of target did fall last year. I want to throw that out there, but it was still well above average. All right, everybody. Thanks for listening. This has been the North edition of the projections tomorrow. I'm assuming the South.

South? Yeah, of course. Yeah, South. West. West. Ridiculous. We saved them for last. South? Yeah, of course. Yeah, South. West. West. Ridiculous. We saved them for last. Ben, Heath, and Adam.

Be back tomorrow on Projections Week.