Fantasy Football Today - AJ Brown TRADED to the Patriots! Fantasy Football Impact & Rankings Shakeup! (06/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: June 1, 2026AJ Brown has been traded to the New England Patriots, and the entire 2026 fantasy football landscape just shifted. We break down what this move means for AJ Brown’s target share, weekly ceiling, and... draft value in a new offensive system. We also dive into the biggest winners and losers from the trade, including how it reshapes the Patriots' and Eagles' passing games and which players get a fantasy boost—or take a hit. Stay locked in for more instant fantasy reactions, rankings updates, and offseason breakdowns.Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtodaySUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1
Transcript
Discussion (0)
All right.
We are talking to AJ Brown
and the Patriots.
Who could have seen this coming?
The only surprising thing today
is that this is arguably
the second biggest trade in the NFL,
Miles Garrett,
going to the Rams earlier today
on Monday, June 1st.
Fantasy football today,
bonus episode,
Adam Azer, Dave, Richard,
Jamie Eisenberg, Keith Cummings.
All right, so you guys,
we talked about him this morning,
AJ Brown,
and you had already been ranking him
as if he were going to get traded.
You'd already been ranking Devante Smith
as if he were,
as is a J. Brown, we're going to get traded.
So this is obviously not a surprise,
but agree or disagree.
A.J. Brown to the Patriots is a win
for everyone except
Jalen Hertz and Romeo Dobbs.
Okay. I don't know
if I agree with it being a win for the running backs
in New England.
It's a big hit to Kashan Booty.
Yeah, those guys too.
Keith's worried about the hit to Booty.
I also just disagree that this is this is the third biggest news item of the day.
Well, we got the Jared versus trade.
And then what else is there?
What do we mean?
O'Dall Beckham's back.
Yeah, baby.
What about Juju?
O'Dell Beckham's back.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, anyway, it's a first round pick in 2028 and a fifth round pick in 27 going to the Eagles for A.J. Brown,
who was on a per game basis,
16th best in non-PPR,
12th best in half and full PPR last year.
He averaged by far a career low,
2.09 yards per route run,
but that's still really good.
It was 17th amongst the wide receivers
with 50 or more targets in between guys
like Rish and Chris Olive.
So, you can feel free to repeat anything you said earlier today,
but Dave, first word on AJ Brown of the Patriots.
I love it.
This is an opportunity for him.
him to even see a higher target share than he had in Philadelphia.
This is a dude who averaged eight targets per game last year in Philadelphia.
When he finished the year, you referenced his last seven games.
I'll reference his last six games.
He averaged 9.3 targets per game.
This is the regular season.
9.3 targets per game, 19.8 PPR points per game.
So I'd say that A.J. Brown is still a very good football player, even though he's coming
off of the year where he dealt with some injuries.
He said that he was toast in a Twitch stream,
and then he came back and roughed up a lot of defenses.
There are a number of data points that I've pulled up since this morning.
I don't know what my favorite one is.
I think I'm just going to go with this one.
There were, obviously, a bunch of games last year.
Drake may played 13 times.
May had a receiver get seven plus targets from him,
and you can think about the receivers that he had.
10 of the 13 times a receiver at 13 plus ppr points,
eight times, eight of 13, 15 plus ppr points.
And now he's about to get a receiver who's better than anybody that he had last year.
And a guy that had 70% of his games in Philadelphia with at least seven targets,
I think he's going to get a ton of work.
I think he's going to be really good.
And you should draft him.
Where do I have him?
Round three.
I think I haven't in round three.
Heath, you're next.
I guess I'll be the pessimistic guy on AJ Brown.
I still think he's going to be very good.
I think we all have him ranked as a number two wide receiver.
I'm a low-end wide receiver too.
These guys are a little bit higher.
It wasn't just the yards per route run that was down.
It was pretty much everything efficiency-wise that was down for AJ Brown.
He's missed five games due to injury the last two years,
had some injury problems in the past.
I think my biggest concern might be he's always been a pretty good,
yak guy.
And last year,
career low,
3.4 yards
after catch per
reception.
It's actually been
trending negative
the last three years.
And I'm just worried
he's not quite,
I think you think
29-year-old AJ Brown,
he should still be
in his prime.
I think he may be just passed.
Jamie.
I mean,
look,
obviously Heath makes
some good points.
I'm more in line
with Dave on this one.
I think just looking at
the opportunity to go,
as we said earlier, this is
on paper, the best quarterback
I think he's going to play with from a passing perspective.
Again, we'll see how that plays out.
But I like to be up great.
I think they make this move
on top of getting Romeo Dobbs
to be a better passing team.
The target leader last year was Stefan Diggs at 102.
I'd be very surprised if AJ Brown's under 120
targets, he was at 121 last year in 15
games. Dave referenced
the last seven games, excuse me, which
is even better. You take away the week 11 game, which started the stretch where he was getting
double digits targets. But you take the seven games, Weeks 11 through 17, didn't play week 18.
He averaged 18.6 ppr points per game over that. So obviously they're higher, but he's looking
at those two numbers. 18.6 and then, what do you say, 19.8? That's top five territory. Again,
for it down here in 2025. But if he had done that for a full season, that's a top five receiver
from a point per game in comparison.
Jamie, I'm sorry to cut you off.
Your audio's, go ahead and hop out and hop back in.
Sorry about that, Jamie.
We heard everything you said, but it sounded a little wonky.
Yeah, AJ Brown finished strong.
So Dave and Jamie a little more optimistic.
I see, as of right now, their latest thing I see is they have him 11th.
Oh, so they have one was a wide receiver 1.
Yeah, I've got him top 12.
And he has him 20th.
So it is a pretty big difference.
Okay.
I thought that we were all wide receiver choose.
Jamie, I'm sorry to cut you up.
Anything to add?
I don't know what you just said to.
We just talked a lot of smack about you, basically.
I don't know if you want to defend yourself.
No, I mean, you're just, that's okay.
Oh, geez.
No, I thought that Jamie's take was just like AJ Brown's 2025.
It was like there was a lot of awesome things and then intermittent just disappearance.
Yeah, again, I said this morning, but on the big,
show that we did, but he did have a preseason hamstring injury.
He re-agravated it mid-season.
I can't sit here and say how much it affected him.
I don't know, but it could have affected him because he obviously got off to a slow start.
Now, I think it absolutely impacted his efficiency and his ability to cut in his brakes and
add yardage after the catch.
There were times where he had a, it took him forever just to like restart running after he
stopped his feet.
I'm exaggerating a little bit.
It didn't take that long.
But you get the idea.
Yeah, I think when he's healthy, he's still one of the very, one of the very best receivers in football.
Hope so.
I think Heath is a little skeptical of that, which is totally understandable, especially because he is 29.
We shouldn't overlook that.
Now, I struggle with, I don't know how you guys.
Not 29 yet.
It's his age 29 season.
End of the month.
Yeah.
This month.
Yes.
Okay.
So you guys have him right around, Dave and Jamie, right around Rishi, right around Rishie Rice, behind Nico Collins and George Pickens.
and Heath is considerably lower than that.
Okay, Heath, you've been the pro Jalen Hertz guy.
I've got, let's see, five games over the last two years, four games,
because they both didn't play in the week 18 game in 2024.
Without A.J. Brown, J. Helts had two huge games,
28.5 points, 33.4 points, and six point for passing touchdown leagues,
and two bad games.
Well, 10.9 points, 18.3 points in the other two.
How big of a deal is this for Jailen Hertz?
It is a big deal.
It's kind of like the same thing as Devante Smith, though.
Like comparing what they did when A.J. Brown was not there.
Kind of works and kind of doesn't because Mikhailimann's there now.
So I still think Devante Smith, Mackay Lemon, Sequin, Barclay, Dallas, Goddardt,
plenty good enough of weapons for a guy like Hertz who's going to produce probably four or five points per game with his rushing to still be a high-end QB1.
I think he's definitely a top six guy.
You can kind of argue in that four through six range.
Anybody have hurts outside the top six?
I don't.
Okay.
Well, he's got,
but he didn't run as much last year, right?
So if he doesn't run as much and he doesn't have AJ Brown,
you know?
I think you're going to see him probably drafted closer to 10 than you will to five,
just based on how most people are going to feel about this.
I mean, again, you're taking away his number one receiver.
you're replacing him with a rookie.
They are throwing a lot of capital at the position,
but it's an older Marquis Brown.
It's an unproven Dontavian Wix.
They just added another receiver from the Packers today.
I forget his name.
So they're trying to clearly address this.
They were trying to address this before today happened
because we were all anticipating this.
And drafted in Eli Stowers another tight end to throw in the mix as well.
So there's definitely a lot of options for Jalen Hertz to use to replace A.J. Brown.
And so I think the hope would be is that Mackay Lemon is the one that
ascends to that role or steps into that role.
And the other guys just sort of helped fill the void that they didn't really have
last year with a third receiver, a fourth receiver.
You know, now their depth chart is much more, at least proven.
So we don't really know what to expect from Hertz.
I mean, the whole offseason narrative from the beginning was he was a problem.
He was a problem with Kevin Petulow.
He was a problem in accepting what this offense was.
He was a problem, you know, just in, you know, I think moving forward
in his career, and it felt like from some people there that he was taking a step backwards,
you know, that whole ESPN story that came out. So, you know, I think he's at a little bit of
a crossroads. You could see a situation where if they missed the playoffs this year that maybe
everybody's gone, you know, head coach on down from a lot of key parts here. So it's an aging
offensive line. We know that. They had to, you know, it sounded like course, you know, some people
to come back. And so we'll see how this all plays out. I think you're just looking at it,
what Jalen Hertz track record has been,
and the fact that he will still run to what level we'll find out,
but he will still run,
he'll still give you rushing touchdowns.
I think you look at it as,
I don't know,
four through six,
but I think probably six through ten is kind of where I think
Jalen Hertz will end up.
Jalen Hertz or Jalen Hurts or Jailen
Daniels?
Daniels.
Hertz.
Jalen Hertz or Joe Burrow,
six point.
Burrow.
Sheisty.
I've got bro.
Who's sheisty?
Joe Scheisty.
That's what they call him?
I'm not good with nicknames.
Drake May or Lamar Jackson?
Whatever, AA.
Jackson.
Lamar, but it's close.
Lamar.
Okay, May is third for everybody right now.
Alan Jackson, Drake May.
Okay, so Dallas Goddard.
A good year last year.
I think he's been top 13 per game.
What was that damn stat?
almost every year of his career, basically.
But every year with A.J. Brown.
And obviously, targets are being freed up here.
And Dallas Goddard, in those four games I mentioned without A.J. Brown over the last two years,
he had four targets, one game.
Then he had 11.
Then he had 10 in a game that Devante Smith also did not play.
No, he had eight that game.
Devante Smith missed that game, too.
And then he had only three targets in week eight on 20 pass attempts from Hertz,
but he caught two touchdowns.
So I can't sit here and say,
that he's had a huge target boost without AJ Brown,
but there really hasn't been that many games.
So, Jamie, a boost for Dallas got her?
Yeah, again, you know, you're looking at a guy that's been very productive as a fantasy option.
You know, sometimes it's been touchdown related, sometimes not.
But I have to assume that he's going to compete to be second on the team of targets.
You know, we're asking a lot of Mikey Lemon, and I think he's going to do well.
Probably won't see the best of him until the end of the year like we see with a lot of rookies.
But clearly the runway is open for both of these guys.
you take 121 targets off the field,
you know,
a guy that's been around 140 targets when healthy,
and the opportunity is there for him in a new offense
to, you know, still be very productive.
So if you are inclined to wait on tight ends,
I think he's, you know,
anywhere from 10 to 14, 15 in that range
will probably be his average draft position.
But there's a lot to like about Dallas Godrick.
You know, he's an approve it deal,
one-year deal, you know,
signing back with Philadelphia this season.
Most likely he's playing for whatever team's going to pay him next year
because of this Dower's draft pick.
So I think this is an opportunity to, you know,
if you wait on the position,
take a guy that's been productive and may,
I don't think compete to be top five,
but I think certainly could be in that eight to,
eight to 12 range pretty safely if he plays a full year.
Commander's week one,
Titans week two,
Bears week three.
Two of those three games,
he might be covered by rookies.
I think it's a great schedule for him to start the year.
Dallas got order Travis Kelsey.
Kelsey.
Still Kelsey, but that's close.
Dallas, go ahead.
No, I just think there's like eight tight ends that most of us are excited to draft.
And then there's eight more that are probably going to score right around 10 fantasy points per game.
And Goddard's in that second tier.
And Kelsey's in there as well.
And there's several other guys too.
You've done this at least in one draft that I recall Adam.
But like if you want to take Kelsey and Kittle and, like this is a good and.
Goddard's a good end to take him with.
Yeah, and as Heath mentioned earlier,
all the stats of how great Devante Smith has been,
basically been a top 10 caliber receiver when A.J. Brown,
or really when Dallas Goddard hasn't been on the field.
He gets, Jamie, I think you had a stat about
Devante Smith's targets when A.J. Brown hasn't played.
It's three games. It's been nine plus targets in all three of those.
He's 14.2 PPR points or more.
There was 14.2, 14.9, like 21 something.
So the big spike game raises his average up.
But clearly he's going to get opportunities.
And all you heard from Philadelphia this offseason when they were talking around the AJ Brown trade was Devante Smith could be a number one receiver.
We value him as number one receiver.
He's going to produce like a number one receiver.
Like this is a guy that's getting rocket chip emojis because this is what we've been waiting to see is him in this role.
Now, again, we don't know what Mackay Lemon will do.
You know, there's huge potential for him as well.
There's going to be, I think, some surprise weeks because we haven't had a third receiver, a fourth receiver, a guy that stepped up consistently.
And again, Marquis Brown's resume, not great the last couple of years, but still productive enough that he could be a factor.
We saw at the beginning of the last season.
Remember when, you know, Kansas City was struggling with Rice coming back from injury, not being their suspension and Xavier Worthy got hurt?
Marquis Brown got up to a good start last year for Kansas City.
So it wouldn't shock me if he has a few good weeks, especially early in the season.
we'll see Dantavian Wicks, you know, there's been some opportunities for him to produce when he's gotten targets as well.
So it's going to be a little bit different.
I still think DeMonte Smith, though, is worth taking in the round three range also.
Not far after A.J. Brown comes off the board.
All right, I'm going to end it with this, guys.
Jake May, A.J. Brown, any Patriot, any Eagle.
Oh, by the way, I just want to say one last thing.
Sequin Barclay had four or five targets in all four games that he played over the last two years without A.J. Brown.
but you look at any eagle or any patriot
and you have to now just kind of guess their ADP,
who do you think will be the best value in drafts?
Any Patriot or any eagle?
Yeah.
I mean, for me, it's probably Lemon or Goddard.
I'll say Jalen Hertz.
I think Hertz might get drafted up a little bit too soon
for it to be Hertz.
I'm not sure where Devante Smith is going to end up.
I think people are going to be in on him.
He's already been at that three-four turn.
I think he's going to be, yeah.
I think he's going to be like 30.
He might even go higher than that.
Mm-hmm.
I like the lemon call,
but I don't really know where he'll go.
I mean, he's going to get pushed up now also
because, you know, people are waiting for this,
I'm sure, to some degree.
Yeah.
What about Trayvion in early round six?
Ugh.
That's what his ADP is right now on CBS.
Okay, well, let's find.
I mean, it's been for Montja stays after.
I'd rather remind him.
Let's see where he's at.
All right, everybody, I got to go.
I'm sorry.
Monday night and I got to get dinner on the table.
So thanks, everybody.
Appreciate the three of you taking time and our producers as well.
And all of you for watching and listening.
I'm Adam, for Heath, Jamie, and Dave.
Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
