Fantasy Football Today - Allen Robinson Profile: Ready to Bounce Back? (06/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Alan Robinson, as of May 1st, is wide receiver 25 in NFC drafts, 75 NFC drafts. How does Jacob Gibbs feel about that draft value for Allen Robinson?

Starting point is 00:00:28 Let's ask him right now on Fantasy Football Today in 5. Not sure he's loving it. Not sure Jacob Gibbs is loving Allen Robinson as wide receiver 25. What do the advanced stats say about Allen Robinson? How are those per route rates? Not great. Yeah, so Robinson was only targeted on 18% of his routes in 2021. For reference in the six seasons prior, his rate never dipped below 21%. It was only below 23%

Starting point is 00:00:54 one time. In 2020, he actually had a career best 25%. And that was all the way down to 18% last year. Below guys like marvin jones me cole hardman in the same vicinity is like robbie anderson aj green uh so that's that's not great um and you know you may you know you may say like injuries covetless just throughout the whole season but most of that stuff came later in the season after we already had a pretty large sample of Darnell Mooney just straight up out targeting Robinson. So like the first injury for A-Rod popped up after week five, ankle injury, didn't miss any time. And in five healthy games to start the season, he only out-targeted Mooney twice. Mooney had more raw targets and a higher target per outrun rate

Starting point is 00:01:41 during that time. And then Robinson ended up missing most of the season following Chicago's week nine by, but he did play at least 70% of the snaps in all eight of the first games. He only out-targeted Mooney in weeks one and three. Mooney was 19% more likely to draw a target on a per route basis through the first eight games with Robinson healthy. So even while he was healthy, he wasn't operating as the wide receiver one he wasn't out targeting darnell mooney um which is concerning because really for as highly regarded as alan robinson is um he only has two seasons with elite efficiency in terms of yards per outrun

Starting point is 00:02:16 he hit the two yard per outrun mark in 2015 and 2020 that's a rate that roughly 15 to 20 guys are going to hit on any given year um robinson's hit it twice in seven years his best rates by season go 2.17 2.06 and then falls down to 1.82 1.69 1.64 those are his fourth and fifth best seasons so like he's really always been reliant on huge target volume and after watching him struggle to draw targets while playing alongside darnell mooney i just don't feel confident that he's going to be targeted at a high rate while playing alongside Cooper Cupp. Yeah. And he's not a big play guy. That was kind of my knock on him last year. He's completely volume dependent. He has been. And I thought the passing game was going to be much worse for the Bears last year. And it obviously stunk. I didn't expect him to be as bad

Starting point is 00:03:02 as he was, obviously. But the lack of explosive plays, Jacob, when you don't have that, then you need a lot of targets. It's hard to see that happening. But what are we seeing in terms of his big playability? Right. Yeah. It wasn't just the targets that defined Robinson's decline. His explosive plays, his efficiency across the board was way, way down with the targets that he did receive his explosive reception rate or the percentage of his targets that went for 15 or more yards fell to a career low 12 the league average at the ygc position was 18 mooney's was 21 for reference and the lack of explosive plays wasn't for any lack of opportunity either robinson's average route depth was higher in 2021 than it had been in any previous season with the Bears. Justin Fields had the second highest average depth of target in the NFL. There were explosive plays to be had in this

Starting point is 00:03:53 offense, which we saw with Mooney. Robinson just did not convert. Two more metrics that stand out in terms of efficiency. He had just an absolutely abysmal yard per run rate, 1.12 to go with a career-low yard after the catch per reception rate of 2.5. Both of those rates ranked 51st out of 55 qualified receivers. He's going to need some touchdowns. Allen Robinson is definitely going to need some touchdowns. And you're hoping that Stafford provides some of those that Justin Fields and Andy Dalton did not. But how does the move to the Rams change his outlook, if at all? Yeah, so it's going to have to be through touchdowns, I think.

Starting point is 00:04:33 And the way I looked at this is comparing it to Odell Beckham. So Odell Beckham, in his time at the Rams, including the playoffs, which those games definitely boosted his production, averaged 13.4 PPR points, which would have made him the wide receiver 24 last year. A rob is being as drafted as a wide receiver 25 like you said so like maybe he's a value um i definitely don't think so um for starters his 2021 robinson's 2021 with chicago is way worse than anything we've ever seen with obj um like here's how his rates in 2021 stack up compared to Odell Beckham's in 2021 and 2020 with the Browns. Uh, Beckham was 20% more likely to draw a target on a per route basis than

Starting point is 00:05:13 Robinson. He was 40% more efficient in terms of yards per out run. And his explosive reception rate was 83% above Robinson. So like Beckham in his absolute worst years with Browns was still significantly more efficient than Allen Robinson was last year so if you're expecting to replicate OBJ's production you're taking a leap of faith that he significantly improves the efficiency that we saw last year and then like you alluded to with touchdowns there's the issue of like is OBJ's production even replicable because like a lot of it came through touchdowns he really obj didn't improve his efficiency at all moving from cleveland to la in terms of his ability to draw targets or as a term in terms of his ability to um create yards on a per route basis it was almost identical to what we saw in cleveland uh so there are going to be more touchdown opportunities for sure uh robson could still be fantasy relevant because

Starting point is 00:06:02 of those but if you're expecting a return to the form that we saw prior to 2021, there's just not really any data to back set up. And there's an Odell Beckham problem because it looks like the Rams really want to sign him and it could just make things a little bit more complicated. All right. Thank you to Jacob Gibbs. Tomorrow, we're going to talk about Darnell Mooney,

Starting point is 00:06:19 the other half of this bears receiving duo from last year and what's in store for him in 2022. We'll talk to you then on fantasy football.

Fantasy Football Today - Allen Robinson Profile: Ready to Bounce Back? (06/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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