Fantasy Football Today - Austin Ekeler Rumors, Michael Thomas, More Raiders Talk: Free Agency Day One Recap (03/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 14, 2023

JOIN OUR BRACKET CHALLENGE! cbssports.com/fft While it was a slow day for NFL free agents (for Fantasy purposes), we still have plenty to discuss! What do we make of the Austin Ekeler trade rumors and... is there really a better team for Ekeler's Fantasy value (3:05)? We also read some listener comments (9:45) on the D.J. Moore trade, what's next for the Bears and Aaron Rodgers ... Heath joins us to talk about the Raiders (18:45) and why he isn't concerned about Davante Adams. And is Josh Jacobs a Top 5 running back now? We also debate Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Jordan Love vs. Derek Carr before getting into Michael Thomas (26:00) and his value assuming he sticks with the Saints in 2023 ... Reviewing the rest of the free agency news (31:00)! The Broncos made big moves on the offensive line. The Falcons acquired Jonnu Smith. What else stood out? We also give our thoughts on some proposed rules changes (44:00) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It's SnoozeFest 2023, a. one what are we gonna talk about david i told dave we're gonna talk about david on yamada today so that's uh now there's a lot of like honestly we were doing an nfl podcast a lot of interesting moving parts on defense a little bit of offensive line but dave no wide receiver news. No running back news. Pretty interesting that it's taking so long thus far. But how's free agency day one treating you? Snooze fest.
Starting point is 00:02:14 Totally boring. Lame. But this is what's expected when the wide receiver free agency group is headlined by DJ Chark and Jac jacoby myers and odell beckham and this is what's expected when the running back group although there are some pretty decent names out there they're the fantasy names that we know like uh miles sanders is out there and leonard fournette and david montgomery but we've got a whole draft coming in late April. That's going to put more running backs on the map. And I got a feeling that those guys are going to get underwhelming contracts
Starting point is 00:02:50 on the second wave of free agency, both the receivers and the running backs that are available. So not necessarily a great situation for fantasy managers, trying to get a leg up for agency is going to be kind of dull there, but there could always be a trade. We're still waiting for a trade out of Arizona for DeAndre Hopkins. And who knows what else will happen?
Starting point is 00:03:11 Maybe a trade out of L.A., Adam, for a certain running back that's been good to fantasy managers for years. Yes, right. So our job is to make this a fun show and we're going to do it. We do have some good stuff to talk about. Dalvin Cook and Austin Eckler trade rumors.
Starting point is 00:03:26 Heath is coming on the show in about 10 minutes, and he's going to give his take on Jimmy Garoppolo going to the Raiders and what it means for everybody. Michael Thomas is still on the Saints. I think that's something we should discuss here because as we spoke about Chris Olave a couple weeks ago, I think we kind of did it with the thought that Thomas wouldn't be there, but he's still there.
Starting point is 00:03:43 And Aaron Rodgers is still a green Bay Packer. So we're waiting to see that. There was a report that he was going to the jets, but it hasn't happened yet. Jalen Ramsey, how about Jalen Ramsey signing with the dog, getting traded to the dolphins. That's not like right now,
Starting point is 00:03:55 nothing good has happened for, for Garrett Wilson, the Patriots. We signed their top cornerback. The jets still don't have the quarterback. They want the dolphins now have two elite cornerbacks or very, very good cornerbacks at worst. So all that stuff we can discuss.
Starting point is 00:04:10 Now, I did want to crowdsource it a little bit, Dave. So I asked people what they thought about. I think we got a lot of Bears talk. We're going back to the Justin Fields, sorry, the DJ Moore trade, the number one overall pick trade. But first, let me get your take on the Austin Eckler. And if you want the Dalvin cook trade rumors, what do you make of that?
Starting point is 00:04:32 Eckler wants to get paid. Chargers might be telling him to kick rocks or to, you know, accept the deal that he signed a couple of years back. And he's asking for permission to seek a trade. There are very few teams that I think he could go to and have just as good fantasy value as with the Chargers. There's the three teams that are in need of running backs. There's Miami, Chicago, if they don't sign Montgomery. Somebody told me today that they weren't going to resign Montgomery and Carolina. Three teams, they all need a running
Starting point is 00:05:03 back. Eckler could fit in there. I think you'd prefer him in Miami just because of the other offensive talent that's there, such as Mike White. But also Carolina could be interesting too with the rookie quarterback and any team that gets them, they'd have to use them in the passing game just like the Chargers did. That would make sense. There's another team that would be maybe better than the Chargers, if you can believe that. There's actually two. I don't know how realistic they are. Give me some hints. Give me some hints. All right. The first one. Playoff team in the AFC from last year. I hope you're not going to say Buffalo. I'm not going to say Buffalo. I'm not going to say Buffalo.
Starting point is 00:05:46 Okay, a team from last year. The Ravens. No. The Dolphins. Is this the fun podcast you were envisioning? Okay, who? What if you had to burrow your way to Cincinnati? Oh, yeah, yeah, okay, that's good.
Starting point is 00:06:03 Okay, so Joe Mixon's got all this stuff going on and a high cap number as well. Bengals can move on from him and put Austin Eckler in their backfield. I'd love it. And I'm a little hesitant to put Eckler, you know, how often do running backs repeat how good that they do? He's been over 20 PPR points per game
Starting point is 00:06:21 each of the last two seasons. Can you do it a third year? Maybe you could do it in LA. Maybe you could do it in Cincinnati too. I think that the Bengals would be an awesome landing spot. It's got to be a contender that he goes to as well. Why would he go to Chicago? Getting paid is nice, but are the Bears going to contend for a playoff spot? I don't care how much you like the moves that they made today in free agency. I don't think they're there. The even more unrealistic one. Here's your hint. X Seahawks, X Saints.
Starting point is 00:06:52 Denver. Denver. And obviously that's unrealistic because the Broncos are in the same division. But think about Austin Eckler in that offense. First of all, I'd be back home. He's from Colorado. Second of all, Sean'd be back home. He's from Colorado. Second of all, Sean Payton's track record,
Starting point is 00:07:11 the average percentage of catches that running backs had in his offenses in New Orleans, 31.1% of all catches went to running backs. Eckler was already on a team that threw to their running backs about 25% of the time last year. Now it would go up to 31%. That would be juicy for PPRPR and we know that Javante Williams isn't exactly a sure thing to be ready for the start of the season I don't know if the Broncos necessarily I don't know I don't think the Broncos see themselves the way that a lot of analysts see them I think they think they can contend and they made some nice moves in free
Starting point is 00:07:43 agency to start they really did a good job on the right side of that offensive line. If that offensive line is a huge improvement after all, Russell Wilson should be calmer from the pocket, should be able to play like he did toward the end of last season. I like what they did there on offense. I wish we could talk more about that, but you're right.
Starting point is 00:07:59 They're probably not going to trade him within the division because if you think about it, who was Austin Eckler's offensive coordinator the last two seasons it was lombardi who's now in denver as a uh consigliere of right sean but he's a sean payton disciple so that that's a good i never thought about that my thought was there is no team that would be better for austin eckler's value than the los angeles chargers the Chargers have been top five in pass attempts three straight years. I think top six in passing yards three straight years. They just
Starting point is 00:08:30 throw the hell out of the ball. And now Kellen Moore's the guy who, that jerk, he likes to light up the scoreboard and be the number one offense in the NFL. He doesn't like to win, though. But the thing about Eckler is he's never had more than 206 carries in a season. If you have any questions about him, can he actually be a workhorse?
Starting point is 00:08:48 I'm not sure. No. Right, right. It doesn't look like it. Let him do what he's been doing. Right, but who's going to give him that opportunity? I think only the Chargers, and the Broncos are interesting, but the Chargers, to me, are the absolute best fit for Eckler.
Starting point is 00:09:00 I don't ever want to see running backs change teams, basically. I just always seem to want them to stay where they are. And it could end up happening where Eckler stays with the Chargers and they just agree to an addendum on his deal where he gets another year at a big contract value and there's some guaranteed money. Whatever it is. But the Chargers should really work hard on trying to fix it because they've got a really good team. And they've got a really good offensive line. and Eckler should slay with, with Kellen Moore as his offensive coordinator and Justin Herbert,
Starting point is 00:09:31 still a quarterback. All right. So quick, a quick pause from that to talk about college basketball. Okay. Because a couple of things, you got to listen to the eye on college basketball podcast. It is awesome.
Starting point is 00:09:42 It's one of our oldest podcasts, Gary Parish and Matt Norlander. These guys are the best. And I will listen every time, every year, this time of year. I listen to this show. Why do you listen every time of year? This time of year, every year, because I want to fill out my brackets.
Starting point is 00:09:58 Na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na. Na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na. Okay. So anyway, I enjoy that. Okay. Anyway, listen to that podcast and join our bracket challenge because if you win it, you're in the podcast league and you can do your brackets now on the CBS Sports app.
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Starting point is 00:10:45 In terms of our league, the FFT League, if you win it, you're in the podcast league. Link is in the episode description, but all you have to do is go to cbssports.com slash FFT. So I asked the people, I knew that we didn't have a ton to talk about today, but I did ask the people, what's on your mind?
Starting point is 00:11:02 What do you want to talk about? And a lot of Bears stuff. People wondering what happens at running back for the Bears. You just said that you heard that they're not going to bring back David Montgomery. Do you think B. John Robinson is an answer? I've seen...
Starting point is 00:11:18 So, yeah. Anyway, a lot of people want to know about the Bears and some questions about the running back spot. So, with the trade, getting DJ Moore and beefing up on defense a little bit today, what do you think about the Bears running game? I think they need to work on it. I know they like Khalil Herbert. We've been saying it for, goodness, it feels like seven months now
Starting point is 00:11:38 that Khalil Herbert fits into what they want to do on offense. But I think short of them drafting B. John Robinson, they are a team that looks destined toward having a duo, if not a trio, in their backfield. The one thing the Bears did not do today was pick up capable tackles. They were going after Mike McGlinchey. He went to Denver. It seemed like the Bears didn't want to pay McGlinchey what he got from Denver.
Starting point is 00:12:06 They got Nate Davis from Tennessee. Davis is a good run blocker. He's not a very good pass blocker. But Bears are going to do plenty of running this year. So whoever their running backs are will be of interest in fantasy. I would imagine that it will be a duo. For now, we know that Khalil Herbert will be part of that duo. So he's in that mid-round range as a running back that you'll consider an
Starting point is 00:12:28 RB three. That's as things stand out. He has been so good. He has played six games in his career. Khalil Herbert without David Montgomery or with Montgomery leaving very early with an injury. He has 18 or more carries and 70 or more rushing yards in all six games. So interesting. Yeah, it's a lot, you know, and he's got, yeah, 72 or more rushing yards in all six games. And
Starting point is 00:12:52 yeah, he crushed it. He did fit. Now, two of the games from this past year, the two games that he played without Montgomery, Houston and the Giants. So he benefited from that. But Herbert was also really good the year before at the Raiders against Green Bay at Tampa Bay against San Francisco. He was okay. So I would love for him to get a shot. I think he's better than David Montgomery, but that's just me. You know, we'll
Starting point is 00:13:15 see. Well, the Bears might tell you the exact same thing. Yeah, I think statistically David Montgomery is one of the least impressive running backs that that's gotten as much work as as he has. Ravito says, look what it didn't happen. Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay. So this might be an outdated question by the time you finish answering it.
Starting point is 00:13:37 But you think he's going to stay in Green Bay or is that off the table? No, I think that he will move on from Green Bay. I think the Packers, I think they want to see what they've got in Jordan Love. And Love's got potential now. He did have a live arm in college. His second to last year at Utah State was way better than his last year at Utah State. Some circumstances played a role. But a couple years on the bench in Green Bay, he should be ready to go this season.
Starting point is 00:14:04 It feels like Green Bay is turning the page and maybe installing an offense that they didn't think they could do with Aaron Rodgers, but they can do with Jordan Love. I'm curious to see it. Love will be one of my targets in two quarterback drafts when I don't get two good quarterbacks early on. Say I'm waiting on the position. Love is going to be in that QB 20 range.
Starting point is 00:14:26 18 to 23, let's call it there. But a target is a number two QB. And in one quarterback leagues, mine end up being somebody I'll take with my third to last pick before I take my defense and my kicker. So, how would you rank assuming Aaron Rodgers is no longer
Starting point is 00:14:41 on the Packers? Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo. I believe I have Love at the top of that list, simply for the upside. Because I don't love the upside for Garoppolo. I mean, I know he's got great guys to throw to, but we've seen so much of Garoppolo. The combination of him not being a downfield attacker,
Starting point is 00:15:03 and when he does attack downfield, it hasn't been pretty, along with the injury risk. So certainly in a one quarterback league, that's an easy pass in a two quarterback league. I kind of get it, especially if the Raiders don't add another quarterback through the draft, maybe you would consider him over love. But if the Packers don't add another quarterback through the draft and it's just Jordan love,
Starting point is 00:15:20 you can feel the exact same way about him. So would you rather go with the young guy that, you know, you don't know what he's capable of doing, but you know that there's potential? Or do you go with the older quarterback where you've seen him play for years and you know that there isn't a lot of potential? To me, that's an easy answer to go with love. You mentioned Carr, I think, in between those two? Yeah, I would take Carr over Love. So I'll just throw that out there. Yeah, I'll take Love. I'll take Love over Carr. Maybe it changes if Carr really starts to
Starting point is 00:15:48 spout off and we're hearing things about how great Chris Olave is looking, and if Michael Thomas stays there. But it's almost the same exact argument. I think it's once in Derek Carr's career, he's gone north of 20 fantasy points a game. What are you drafting? You're drafting 18, 17 fantasy points per game?
Starting point is 00:16:04 Take my chances with jordan love yeah now if you've ever seen the movie titanic some people prefer love in the car right you know that seed like yeah okay so anyway oh adam yeah but they're in a car in the you know when they're in that car like in the steam room or whatever. There's a car in the steam room? You know, the steamy hand? There's a lot of stuff that happened in that movie. Schaefer, come on. You know the scene, right?
Starting point is 00:16:32 Never seen Titanic? Oh, okay. And the podcast hits an iceberg, ladies and gentlemen. All right, we're going to take a break. We're going to take a break. I want to talk about Michael Thomas when we come back on Fantasy Football today. So the reason why I like Derek Carr over Jordan Love is I kind of feel like you know what you're getting with Derek Carr. He's QB 18. Just put it in pencil, but like a colored pencil.
Starting point is 00:16:59 Not, you know, harder to erase. Purple. Yeah, yeah. I think Michael Thomas is going to stay there. And that's a pretty good... They re-signed Juwan Johnson for what that's worth. I like it. No, no, they have a group. Yeah, it's not bad.
Starting point is 00:17:12 It's not bad. Yeah, well, Derek Carr had a group last year in Las Vegas. And he was fine. He was... Okay, Derek Carr... 20 PPR... No, but I'm not... 20 fantasy points a game?
Starting point is 00:17:24 I don't have enough colored pencils to put Jordan Love in for 20 fantasy points per game. There's only one colored pencil you need for this conversation, and it's brown. Because it's not a lot of excitement when we're talking about it. Listen, Jordan Love, I don't think he's got the greatest upside of any quarterback we're talking about. But he's got some. We're literally coming off of a year where Derek Carr had Devontae Adams, and then at times Darren Waller and Hunter Renfroe on top of it,
Starting point is 00:17:52 not to mention Josh Jacobs contributing out of the backfield. Is this a better receiving core? No, but that was a bad year for him. That was a bad year for Derek Carr, and he was still serviceable. He was 18th per game, by the way. And my favorite Derek Carr stat
Starting point is 00:18:08 is that he had more 20 fantasy point games than Trevor Lawrence. He had more 20 fantasy point games than Daniel Jones. The reason his season looks so bad, the season reason, is he had three horrible games. One of them was at New Orleans,
Starting point is 00:18:25 and they had the flu, and Devontae Adams was terrible. They didn't get the ball past midfield. The starters didn't, at least. One of them was at Pittsburgh in the cold weather where we know he can't play, and I don't remember the third one. But he doesn't have any cold weather games.
Starting point is 00:18:40 He potentially has zero cold weather games now. I'm bringing on Heath now. Heath, this is what we're talking about. Day one of free agency. He potentially has zero cold weather games now. I'm bringing on Heath now. It's amazing. This is what we're talking about. Day one of free agency. Carr versus Jordan Love. I've been listening to two minutes of Derek Carr talk. And amazingly, we've already had a Daniel Jones reference.
Starting point is 00:18:58 So it's a pretty spectacular podcast from what I can tell. So I wanted to talk about Jimmy Garoppolo. Yeah, yeah. Because he is going to take Derek Carr's place in Las Vegas. And I saw a clip on Twitter. We do a good job of getting clips out from the show now on how Garoppolo was maybe a downgrade for Devontae Adams. I don't really think that's true.
Starting point is 00:19:23 I don't really think that's true. It is true that Devontae Adams had his highest ADOT in the last five years last year, and Derek Carr had his highest intended air yards per attempt in five years last year, and Carr was a lot better at throwing the deep ball than Garoppolo and throws the deep ball a lot more. It's also true the best year of Devontae Adams' career, when he averaged 98 yards a game and had 18 receiving touchdowns, he had an 8.98 ADOT. Devontae Adams will do whatever the quarterback does well, and he'll do it as well as anybody in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:19:58 Yeah, but that ADOT, what did you say, 8.9? Yeah. I mean, isn't that a lot higher than Debo? Well, he's not going to beat Debo, no. Right. I mean, Debo had a running back ADOT. Right, exactly. I know.
Starting point is 00:20:14 That's not the same type of player. Yeah. It's an interesting fit, but I think a lot of people, myself included, I thought he would be worse last year. And he was awesome. Exactly. In kind of a way that he hadn't been awesome before. He had a whole bunch of deep touchdown catches. He had a 55% catch rate last year.
Starting point is 00:20:31 He was like Jamar Chase last year. Right, right. So he's just amazing. But he's been the 77% catch rate guy because they're all short area targets. He can do any of those things. Right. And Garoppolo is not good at throwing the deep ball. He is, I think, very good at short area targets and hitting guys on time and
Starting point is 00:20:51 producing yak. And so I think that he'll probably continue to be good at that. I think it's great for Darren Waller. It's great for Josh Jacobs. It's great for Hunter Renfro. And it probably doesn't matter for Devontae Adams. Okay. so I was a little surprised that Dave and Jamie have CeeDee Lamb ahead of Devontae Adams. Do you? I think I did before this. I have not updated my rankings based on today's news. But more in the projections, I definitely have Adams projected for more points. But, you know, I'm going to be an ageist this year.
Starting point is 00:21:27 And so 30-year-old receivers are taking a little bit of a hit. But I think that both Jacobs – yes, I had Lamb at wide receiver four and Adams at wide receiver seven. He might be wide receiver six. Okay. But I think they're both top 15 picks, Jacobs and Adams at wide receiver seven. He might be wide receiver six. Okay. But I think they're both top 15 picks, Jacobs and Adams. Yeah, that's what Dave and Jamie said as well. Second round for sure.
Starting point is 00:21:52 I don't know if they specifically said top 15. I think we have to talk about Jacobs as a top five running back. Okay. Explain. There are so few backs that have his projected touch profile. He was just in this offense. It's not going to be a bad offense now. They have an NFL-quality starting quarterback
Starting point is 00:22:16 who doesn't like to throw the ball down the field very much, and he's going to get 360 touches. And unlike the other guys who might get that many touches, he's only 25 years old. Yeah. Can't really argue. Dave, what do you think? I am always nervous to buy into a running back the year after he has a big statistical jump
Starting point is 00:22:43 when we know that a bag is on the line. Okay. Jacobs was in his rookie contract year and his PPR points per game jumped five points per game. Expecting that to happen again, put him in the top five. It feels a little too risky because now we're talking about my very first pick is going to be Josh Jacobs and potentially like where like where does that fall in eighth overall ninth overall maybe 12th it feels
Starting point is 00:23:12 a little too dicey for me i especially with what i i honestly think it's a downgrading quarterback going from carter garoppolo yeah it's and i know that that seems to be the prevailing sentiment um i think the only reason i would think that it is is because garoppolo is likely to get hurt and then you go back up play more games but i can't find anything statistically that says that derrick car's a better quarterback than jimmy garoppolo but you know that's the thing about garoppolo if you just looked at statistics you'd think he's one of the best quarterbacks in football. Right. We just don't. And I said this earlier on the bonus podcast,
Starting point is 00:23:47 but don't have a lot of examples. I can't really think of any examples other than most certain Wilson of players leaving San Francisco. I don't know how they're going to do outside of the system. You know, they've had, they've had the same core for a while. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:01 So it's an experiment. And that's the thing. Like, I just think there's... Other than Kyle Shanahan, who knows the strengths and weaknesses of Jimmy Garoppolo
Starting point is 00:24:11 better than Josh McDaniels? That's a fair point. Mike McDaniels. Anybody whose name has McDaniel in it. Xavier? And one of the problems with Carr connecting
Starting point is 00:24:21 with McDaniels last year was that he didn't... He didn't want to just do the everything's determined by Josh McDaniels, hit the guy, the first target that you're supposed to hit, and don't change anything. Jimmy Garoppolo can do that all day. Maybe it would be worth our time to study how Garoppolo did in New England.
Starting point is 00:24:38 And do those numbers compare to what he did in San Francisco? I don't think so. That is ages ago. But it's the same offense. It's what, four games he had? Those four games at the start of that season? I don't know if it's the same offense or not. Tom Brady wasn't slinging it like Derek Carr was last year.
Starting point is 00:24:55 True. It's true. Yeah. But here's the thing, Heath. Even if Garoppolo's asked to throw it deep like Derek Carr was asked to throw it deep, it doesn't mean he's going to be as effective as Derek Carr was. In fact, the track record says that he'll be worse than that.
Starting point is 00:25:11 Yeah, I mean, he's not ever thrown to Devonta Adams. I think we've gotten a pretty good lesson over the past three years in how much difference an elite wide receiver can make to a quarterback. Where do you have Garoppolo ranked? Like one spot ahead of Carr, I think it's 21 and 22. I'm in that same range. And perhaps the difference that an elite wide receiver can make for a running back as well.
Starting point is 00:25:38 Because I specifically remember the Seahawks game when Josh Jacobs had that, what was it, 80-ish yard walk-off touchdown in overtime. And Pete Carroll said, yeah, we were paying so much attention to Devontae Adams that we didn't do a good enough job against Josh Jacobs. So that might be something to look at, see if there's any correlation between great, you know, the elite wide receivers and great running games.
Starting point is 00:25:58 But all right. Interesting thoughts there. Heath, you remember the car scene in Titanic, right? They're in the car? No. Okay. I just Googled it. It exists. So, what did this whole conversation tell us about
Starting point is 00:26:16 Michael Thomas? You guys have any interest in Michael Thomas now that it appears he's going to be on the Saints? So, just wrapping up the thought from eight minutes ago. Michael Thomas on the Saints. So just wrapping up the thought from eight minutes ago, Michael Thomas on the Saints. Dave, what round are we talking? Are we talking around five or round six? Because that feels way too soon.
Starting point is 00:26:33 But once you get past that, maybe even like round eight range, then we're talking about there's a potential value here. And if he ends up playing only three games again because he's got problems with his ankle or his foot or his head or whatever then he's pretty easy to move on from so if the later that we're drafting him i i caution a little bit on round seven because i still think there's a lot of players that'll be in round seven who i'd rather have but let's call it round eight or later it almost feels like you're potentially stealing and And that's if he stays in New Orleans, even with Derek Carr there.
Starting point is 00:27:09 Yeah, I will predict that if Michael Thomas shows up for the first day of training camp and is still 100% healthy by the biggest draft weekend of the year, that Michael Thomas is probably a sixth round pick. And Chris Olave is what? Round four-ish? Does Michael Thomas' availability, his health,
Starting point is 00:27:35 let's say he is healthy for week one, does that change the way you evaluate Chris Olave? Do you drop him? I think you'd have to, just because of the target volume not being the ups the upside for the targets just isn't quite the same with michael thomas there but i'm still gonna look at olave as like three four turn type of range although i can give you the numbers if you're looking right now i have them like he had 13 targets in a game with mich Thomas in the field, didn't he? He did. So here's the first three games Michael Thomas played.
Starting point is 00:28:08 He and Jameis Winston, those were the only games they played. It's worth noting that New Orleans was averaging 38 pass attempts per game and 286 passing yards per game. So that was outstanding. Michael Thomas had 22 targets. Chris Olave had 29 targets. And Juwan Johnson had 13 targets. Jarvis Landry had 22 targets. Chris Olave had 29 targets. And Juwan Johnson had 13 targets. Jarvis Landry had 19 targets.
Starting point is 00:28:28 But Olave had seven more targets in those three games than Michael Thomas. The first three games of his career. And that was with Jameis Winston. Now, remember, Olave was a super high ADOT in those games. Jameis is kind of a downfield guy, but that's your stat for you. I don't know if that's going to matter at all, but he did out-target. Were there any games where Michael Thomas had more targets than Chris Olave? Week one.
Starting point is 00:28:51 That's it? Yeah, it was like a flip. Michael Thomas in week one had eight, nine, and five targets. Olave had, let's see, eight, nine, five for Thomas, three, 13, 13. 13 targets in weeks two and three for Chris Olave. Did Thomas get hurt in week three? That's why he only had the five? I don't think so.
Starting point is 00:29:12 Maybe, I think he played a fairly normal snap share. Okay. No, that makes me feel better about Olave. That's the kind of thing that would also make me feel better, but then I think about it it's three games with a different quarterback I think the overall the overall theme of Michael Thomas is there
Starting point is 00:29:31 that's not good for Chris Olave should outweigh what happened in three games not saying it's terrible for Olave but it's not good for Olave yeah I think it really depends on how much they're going to throw the ball to yeah they could be headed toward a direction much they're going to throw the ball to. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:47 They could be headed toward a direction where they're throwing it a lot, though. Okay. Everyone's talking about the car scene in Titanic, so feel good about that. Got everyone off track there in the YouTube chat. We will finish up with a few more thoughts here. We'll go through all the news. A lot of defensive news and offensive line news and stuff like that. They could be fantasy relevant, even those defensive headlines.
Starting point is 00:30:10 I mean, are the Falcons on their way to having a good defense? Are the Bears on their way to having a good defense? We'll talk about it after this break on Fantasy Football today. Welcome back. Free agency day one recap. Hasn't really been a lot. It's been a lot it's just been
Starting point is 00:30:25 not for like fantasy right not a lot of fantasy relevant moves it sets us up for a pretty fun week going forward eventually these guys are gonna have to sign there's not a lot of um i mean the running backs will eventually happen, but there's not a lot of wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers' trade might happen. It's kind of a down year for free agency for fantasy purposes. If we've got Eckler, Hopkins, and Dalvin Cook trade rumors, I feel like one of them,
Starting point is 00:31:03 I keep getting a notification on my phone, it's another defensive player. Now the Vikings have signed Marcus Davenport. Yeah. No, I think Hopkins is going to get traded. Yeah, I do too. I can't imagine the Chargers are going to trade Eckler. Could Eckler hold in? Sure.
Starting point is 00:31:19 Then not play? Yeah, he can hold out his age 28 season and see how that works out, getting a contract next year. All right, so let's go through some of the headlines here. John O. Smith going to the Falcons. So quarterback news. Oh, that freaked people out, and it shouldn't. Okay.
Starting point is 00:31:34 Quarterback news. The Rams GM Les Snead said that Matthew Stafford is one of the team's pillars. The Raiders signed Garoppolo. The Dolphins signed Mike White. The Niners signed Sam Darnold. So those are two teams with injury-prone quarterbacks, Dolphins signed Mike White. The Niners signed Sam Darnold. So those are two teams with injury prone quarterbacks, obviously. Miami
Starting point is 00:31:47 signing Mike White. San Francisco signing Sam Darnold. Denver. Which one would you rather have in a two quarterback league? Oh, definitely Darnold. Yeah, Darnold's going to average eight yards in attempts. Not White? Think about this. I don't
Starting point is 00:32:04 know the answer to this, but who do you think is a better quarterback, Sam Darnold or Brock Purdy? I really liked what I saw from Purdy last year. Darnold had some good moments last year, too, but there's been so many bad moments for him. The problem is that Purdy, we don't know. Yeah, life on the line, Heath.
Starting point is 00:32:21 Life on the line is 100% Darnold. Yeah, well, especially if it's right now. The second overall pick, different drafts. The second overall pick versus the last pick of the draft. I would take Gardner Minshew over both. And I'm really hopeful that Gardner Minshew goes to the Vegas to back up Jimmy Garoppolo. And then we get like half a season of Minshew starting.
Starting point is 00:32:41 Denver signing Jarrett Stidham. Jameis Winston's going back to the Saints and I mean can you imagine the backup quarterback the agents of those guys as soon as they heard Jimmy was signing
Starting point is 00:32:50 with the Raiders like that's the and Stidham left backup job yep yeah and make sure you get a
Starting point is 00:32:56 well what about Arizona that's a good job Arizona's kind of better than that just because you might have a chance to start to begin the year yeah
Starting point is 00:33:04 okay Jameis Winston back to the Saints and Houston signing Case Keenum better than that just because you might have a chance to start to begin the year yeah uh okay james winston back to the saints and houston signing case keenum running back multiple teams believe that the vikings have discussed trading dalvin cook according to espn's jeremy fowler austin eckler has requested a permission to speak to other teams according to adam schaefter denver released chase edmunds denver is a big spot right now for a running back. It is interesting. We do not have a definitive timetable on Javante Williams. It's a pretty serious injury.
Starting point is 00:33:34 So if one of the main running backs, if it's Smile Sanders, David Montgomery, Damian Harris, whoever, Kareem Hunt goes to Denver, it's going to be something pretty interesting. The Giants signed Matt Breida. Sean Payton did say he'd really like to bring Latavius Murray back. That would not be so interesting. All right. wide receiver news. The Vikings released Adam Thielen. So that would be an interesting landing spot
Starting point is 00:33:52 for one of the wide receivers. But as it stands right now, I wish I had this. I could find it quickly. But K.J. Osborne, two years ago, was pretty damn good without Adam Thielen. Heath, what do you think about KJ Osborne right now? There's a very, very strong
Starting point is 00:34:10 Alan Lazard feeling to it. What does that mean? Yeah, what does that mean? Isn't maybe a number three wide receiver that I'm not going to be able to get excited about, I don't think. I resent this. You are underrating how number two wide receiver-y Alan Lazard was
Starting point is 00:34:33 from weeks two through nine or ten. Whenever Christian Watson started – well, he didn't play week one. But whenever Christian Watson replaced Alan Lazard. Number two-y. He was. He had a six-week stretch where he was number two all right. Okay. All right. Fair enough.
Starting point is 00:34:56 Do you know what Osborne averaged in his last five games? Last five regular season games? No. 17.4 PPR points per game. Oh, yeah, look at that game log. A couple of big ones. 117 yards at Chicago.
Starting point is 00:35:12 157 yards at Colts. If things don't really change in Minnesota, that's going to be an ascending player. That'll be a guy that's picked closer to Michael Thomas than anybody's thinking about right now. And if you're best ball in it right now, he's a good player to take a stab on that round 10 range. If you get them there.
Starting point is 00:35:34 Report that the Broncos could be, could consider trading a wide receiver from ESPN, Houston signing Robert Woods and the Giants signing Sterling Shepard Heath I'll ask you the useless question I asked earlier who would you rather have Robert Woods or Sterling Shepard Sterling Shepard's target share in games when he and Daniel Jones have both
Starting point is 00:35:56 been healthy it's just it's very wide receiver too I would take I would like I'd rather have K.J. Osborne. Same. Do you know how many targets Sterling Shepard had in three games with Daniel Jones? Like 39?
Starting point is 00:36:15 24. That's a lot. It is a lot. Okay. How about tight end? So the Falcons acquired Johnny Smith from New England, reuniting with Arthur Smith. Dave, were you freaked out by this?
Starting point is 00:36:28 No. No one should be freaked out by it. Arthur Smith does tend to collect players that can create mismatches. That's why he was attracted to Pitts and Drake London in the draft. Here's another guy that should be able to. He just makes a ton of stupid mistakes. Got overpaid by the patriots i got suckered into that i thought he'd be pretty good with the patriots and for a little while he wasn't
Starting point is 00:36:50 bad but i just like he's gonna be like the number two tight end there he'll catch a touchdown every six weeks i don't see john new smith being fantasy relevant whatsoever. And I don't, honestly, I don't see him hurting Kyle pits. Maybe he, he can even actually help open up Kyle pits. Okay. I just think that they're going to commit even further to two tight ends and a cloud of dust. Right.
Starting point is 00:37:18 But these are tight ends that aren't great blockers. These are tight ends that are a very active blocker. Was it good at it or not, but they had him do it. Right. Well, they should stop that. blockers. These are tight ends that are runners. It was a very active blocker. I don't know if it's good or not, but they had him do it. Right. Well, they should stop that. I think that this does not make me think they're going to stop that. We have a complaint in the chat from
Starting point is 00:37:37 Island Eric. Heath never acknowledges the chat. What is up with that, Heath? I don't even know where the chat is i don't even know i'm sorry guys what do you see on the on the right side of your screen the private invited me to the chat you the private chat you see all i see is the private chat click comment you see the comments oh wow yeah there. Wow, look at the chat. Congratulations.
Starting point is 00:38:06 Welcome to the chat. Oh, I'm never going to pay attention to you guys again. I'm just going to read the chat. The Saints signed Jawan Johnson to a two-year deal, and Denver signed tight end Chris Manhurts. Offensive line. All right, some significant offensive line stuff here. The Eagles center Jason Kelsey, he's returning for another season. The Chiefs are going to sign.
Starting point is 00:38:29 This is big for the Chiefs because they're losing both tackles in theory. They're signing Jacksonville right tackle Jawan Taylor to a big deal. Four years, $80 million, $60 million guaranteed. The Broncos so far are the offensive line winners. They are going to sign Mike McGlinchey, right tackle from San Francisco. He's 28 years old. Five-year deal, $87.5 million. They're also signing former Ravens
Starting point is 00:38:51 offensive guard Ben Powers. So, good stuff here for the Broncos. Washington making some moves as well, getting Kansas City right tackle Andrew Wiley, three years, $24 million. And also signing former Giants center Nick Gates. The Titans getting Andre.
Starting point is 00:39:07 This was an interesting contract to me. Andre Dillard, three years, $39 million. I don't know the specifics. I don't know how much is guaranteed there, but this is a guy, Andre Dillard, who was a backup for the Eagles. Granted, a backup for the best offensive line in football, former first-round pick, but interesting one for the Titans who have lost a lot from a bad offensive line last year.
Starting point is 00:39:27 Dave, to me, are you there, Dave? I'm here. Okay. It seems like the Titans could have a pretty bad offensive line, which wouldn't be much of a change from last year. No. Dillard was a popular offensive tackle in his draft, former first-round pick.
Starting point is 00:39:43 Didn't work out in Philadelphia, lost a battle for a starting job a couple seasons back. They'll try and salvage him in Tennessee, but I don't know. He might actually be an upgrade over what they had at times at tackle last year, but that's another team with an offensive line that we've got to keep a real close eye on. The Bears signed former Titans guard, another guy the Titans are losing, Nate Davis.
Starting point is 00:40:08 Yep, talked about him earlier in the show. Good run blocker, terrible pass blocker. Bills are signing former Cowboys offensive lineman Connor McGovern. He is a better pass blocker than run blocker. And the Falcons are re-signing right guard Chris Lindstrom to a five-year deal worth $105 million. I mean, anytime you can go spend $100 million on a guard
Starting point is 00:40:32 and add a second tight end. Didn't they re-sign Keith Smith as well? Yeah, they did. They're fullback, and they got Jesse Bates, and their defensive line is beefed up. I know I joked about this on twitter a little bit today and i think most people are joking but i hope it's bijan i really hope they draft bijan and just run it 500 times and win that division all right real before we finish up here do you get this reference heath
Starting point is 00:41:02 welcome to the party pal that's you joining the chat, but it is also a movie reference. I believe that's a quote from Die Hard. It is! All right, Heath. Big one there. Okay. Anything else? There's a lot of defensive stuff.
Starting point is 00:41:17 We just saw Draymond Jones go to the Seahawks. Yeah, we did. And Jalen Ramsey was obviously a huge deal. Yeah. Dolphins' defense is going to be pretty good. They'll get drafted. They'll end up being a DST that you look at with one of your last two picks.
Starting point is 00:41:33 They added David Long, a linebacker. Ramsey's a big signing for them. Their pass rush is on the rise. This is a good one. And Vic Fangio's there. The 49ers signed Javon Hargrave. That wasn't fair. That defensive front doesn't need to be any better.
Starting point is 00:41:51 Yeah, that's your number one DST right now. Kind of obvious. I'm really, I wouldn't say worried, but curious about the Eagles. So they lose Hargrave. Right up the middle of their defense, they lost somebody. Right, they lost safety Marcus Epps Right up the middle of their defense, they lost somebody. Right.
Starting point is 00:42:05 They lost safety Marcus Epps. They're not going to have... They lost over half their starters. Yeah, they're not going to have both cornerbacks back, and they might not have either cornerback back. Bradbury's a free agent. Darius Slay, I guess, has permission. Gardner Johnson is out there.
Starting point is 00:42:18 Yeah. Yeah, they have so many free agents. This team's window may have closed, but here's the silver lining. Just imagine this offense without a defense holding them back in the fourth quarter of games. And Bills are another team that are pretty interesting as they lose Tremaine Edmonds.
Starting point is 00:42:35 He goes to the Bears. Huge deal. The Bears sign Tremaine Edmonds from the Bills and TJ Edwards, two linebackers. He's Edwards from the Eagles, so the Bears making moves. I don't think the Bears are going to be bad against the run. I don't know if they'll be good against the pass,
Starting point is 00:42:50 but I think that they're not going to be bad against the run. Maybe just average. All right. Let's see. Anything else here? Jamel Dean. Who's on their D line? I think that's TBD. Right.
Starting point is 00:43:00 And their pass rush is still... You think about some of the best teams in football last year, and the Eagles are going to lose a lot on defense, the Bills are going to lose a lot on defense, and the Bengals losing both starting safeties, although bringing back Jermaine Pratt. Yeah, Pratt's a good signing for them. They'll find safeties that can fit into their defense.
Starting point is 00:43:21 All right. Oh, I know what I wanted to finish with. Three proposed rules changes. Rule changes? Okay. The Chargers proposed a rule that I... The Chargers listened to this show because
Starting point is 00:43:35 I... Well, they actually screwed it up. They got way too specific with it. But they proposed a rule that I've been really wanting. It would give a rule that I've been really wanting. It would give a wild card team a higher seed than a division winner under two circumstances. One, the division winner has a losing record.
Starting point is 00:43:54 And two, the wild card team has four or more wins more than the division winner. Why does it have to be that? Why can't it just be they have a better record than the division winner? Why do they need to be four games better than the division winner. Why does it have to be that? Why can't it just be they have a better record than the division winner? Why do they need to be four games better than the division winner? It doesn't make any sense.
Starting point is 00:44:10 We've talked about this. There's got to be a big grand prize for the winner of each division. Yeah, you make the playoffs. That's a pretty damn big prize. Not a big grand enough prize to the owners. Making the playoffs is a big deal. You should not get home field advantage for being sub 500. For a week?
Starting point is 00:44:27 Right. The owners will disagree with you. Well, I disagree with them. The Rams. We'll have to figure out a way to make up that revenue. It's not like the owners are losing revenue. It's just going to a different owner. It's not like we're losing a home game here.
Starting point is 00:44:43 Sure. One year could benefit a different owner. It's not like we're losing a home game here. Sure. One year could benefit a different owner, but the whole idea is each year one out of four has the chance to host at least one home playoff game. If you change that rule, then there's a chance that your entire division could
Starting point is 00:44:58 be shut out. That lowers your chances of hosting a home playoff game. Why does it? Why? No, it doesn't. Yeah, it does. Look, four teams are going to host home playoff game. Why does it? Why? No, it doesn't. Yeah, it does. Look, four teams are going to host the playoff game. Right? In the first round, yes. Yeah. So, what does it matter
Starting point is 00:45:14 if you win your division? It's just the four best records from that poll. Because it's a lock that one team from each division will host the playoff game. It shouldn't be. I don't disagree with it, but the owners will. The owners are wrong.
Starting point is 00:45:29 So the Rams... They're the ones that have the money, so... The Rams propose the rule that would make roughing the passer would be reviewable. What do you think? I don't think they'd do a good job of that so i'd review it i like it should be but pass interference should be too and we can't we can't do that we found that out pretty quick another thing the owners don't want to do is have four hour games i am skeptical that they'll be
Starting point is 00:45:59 able to do this will here's the problem i have with the whole pass interference thing i've said this before too so i apologize but you probably don't remember uh it it was obvious the the nfl whoever it was i forget who it was who was doing it it's one guy he was doing a bad job i'm sorry to say it i remember specifically a deandre hopkins player everybody watched it everybody knew what the call should have been they came back with a different call. It's pretty stinking easy, I think, to make those calls. They over complicate it. So we know sometimes, oh, that was not roughing the
Starting point is 00:46:31 passer, or that was roughing the passer. Don't make it so complicated. I don't know. I think the problem is that it's always coming down to one man's judgment. And so is it the one man who's standing on the field with a whistle, or is it the one man who's sitting in the booth? But it's still going to be one man.
Starting point is 00:46:47 Do a Twitter poll. He's not going to be 100% accurate. We're hoping for like 55% to 60%. And it's a bad look if all the referees on the field decide that a play is legal and fair, but there's a guy sitting in a booth watching a replay that says, nope, that's roughing the passer. People start getting conspiracy theories. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:47:12 Well, I think it's you only review roughing the passer. You don't review non-calls. But if there's a roughing the passer call, I think it should be reviewable. But then it's still subjective in the review. But it's easier to make the call when you're looking at a slow motion replay than just live action. Now you've got to define it even more.
Starting point is 00:47:32 No, you don't. You can't just say, I know it when I see it. You're such a grump. You're a grump. If Eagles proposed a rule that would replace onside kicks with a fourth and 20 from the team's own 20-yard line. And if you convert it, you keep
Starting point is 00:47:50 the ball. Anything's better than an onside kick. I don't know why the Chiefs didn't propose this the day they drafted Patrick Mahomes. Just never kick off again. Yeah, I don't really like it.
Starting point is 00:48:07 Do you like onside kicks? No. Me neither. I just don't want, like, we don't need to make it easier for you to get the ball back when you're behind by two scores with less than a minute to go. You should have done a better job and not been behind by two scores with less than a minute to go. What if you're behind by one score with less than a minute to go? Then you have the ball,
Starting point is 00:48:25 then you score, and you tie the game, and it's fine. No, okay, so you're saying it was two scores, now it's one score. Right.
Starting point is 00:48:31 That's ridiculous. It's like you're down by 14 points, you go score a touchdown, and you're like, I should get a chance to win the game. Okay, so then we don't hold that full point of play.
Starting point is 00:48:37 We should just make the game 58 minutes long, Heath. Why do we even play the last two minutes? We're playing the last two minutes. We're not going to make special rules just so you can get a chance to catch up.
Starting point is 00:48:47 Ridiculous. Alright, we're out of here. Do you have the eight-point touchdown now if you score from the 50? No, look what the XFL did. You can score nine points on a drive. Okay, go watch Titanic, everybody. We'll see you later.
Starting point is 00:49:02 We'll talk to you tomorrow. A lot of big news tomorrow, we promise. We'll see you later. We'll talk to you tomorrow. A lot of big news tomorrow. We promise. South Tennessee for Falcon.

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