Fantasy Football Today - AVOID LIST! Plus Superflex and IDP Tips (08/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 23, 2023

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on guest spots on our show, Zoom calls with our analysts and more! https://tinyurl.com/fftdonate Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the... Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts What is an "Avoid List" and how is it different from a "Busts List?" We attempt to answer that question and then name some players we're avoiding (8:15) including Najee Harris and Darren Waller at their current costs. We've also got a lot of news to cover (18:00) with a Breece Hall update and our thoughts on the Seahawks wide receivers after the JSN injury ... Dave's avoid list (34:10) includes Lamar Jackson, Ken Walker and three Round 6 running backs. Heath's avoid list (42:35) includes a few quarterbacks being drafted in the first 40 picks and Nick Chubb ... Giving you some strategies and players to target in Superflex leagues (48:30) and IDP leagues (56:30) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Okay, interesting show today. What's going on? Welcome, everybody. It is Wednesday morning, one week away from Draftathon. Woo! Yes! 4 to 10 p.m.
Starting point is 00:01:52 Yes, sir! Eastern time. Some of your favorites will be there. Joe Pisapia, Jake Seeley, Joey Wright, Tara Roberts, many, many, many more. Ben Gretsch is going to open the show with us. Dave, Jamie, Heath, Chris. We're going to play some games. We're going to talk fantasy.
Starting point is 00:02:09 We're going to do a draft. Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, Nick Kostos, they're coming on. Nathan Zagura, Jason Horowitz, they're coming on. It's going to be a freaking awesome show. We'll see you next week. We'll tell you about it more. But we've got a topic today that only one of the three of us actually believes is a topic. So we're going to...
Starting point is 00:02:26 Incorrect. Incorrect. Okay. All right. So here's the... We're trying to figure out the difference between the avoid list and the bust lists that we did last week, a week ago. And there may not be much of a difference. That's okay. But yeah. All right. Heath, what... I'm saying like... Okay. We've seen both the lists and we can confirm there is not a difference. The argument is that you are saying there should be a difference. Like Dave made an avoid list looks remarkably similar to his bus list. I tried to use a different set of ADP because I knew that same thing would happen to me. And it still looks remarkably similar to my bus list. And so you are going to explain to Dave and I what the
Starting point is 00:03:06 difference is between a player you are avoiding at his draft cost and a player on your bust list. Right. So a player that I'm avoiding to me, it's not, I don't necessarily think they're going to be bad or not, you know, perform at that value, but I just don't want them on my team. I don't get excited about them. I'll give you a couple of examples. Before the injury, which hopefully is not severe and he could be back for week one against Arizona, which would be awesome, Terry McLaurin. I understood exactly where he was ranked. I thought it made sense there. I never drafted him. I just didn't, I wasn't going to call him a bust because he's always like a top 24-ish wide receiver, and that's where he was being drafted. And I figured that's probably where he would finish.
Starting point is 00:03:53 I didn't see the upside. So he was on my avoid list. I'd rather skip him. You know, this was the thought process, you know, a few weeks ago. I'll skip him. I'll take Dotson next round. Obviously, they're going, you know, pretty similarly now. Dotson might go ahead of him, whatever. So that's a guy give you another example. Uh, as we've done more and more drafts, I just, when I look at, you know, Waller's got some helium now, so he's going kind of early pits goes maybe not long after that Hawkinson to Kittle and God are two guys. Well, Kittle's got a crazy ADP. We all have him. He's going round four, early round five. We don't like that. But if I were in a draft with you guys, Kittle
Starting point is 00:04:30 would still be there in round six, round seven. At that point, there are so many wide receivers and running backs that I want to take. I don't take tight ends in that range. And so I skip Kittle and Goddard. They're mostly on my avoid list because I want other positions at that time. And then I skip Evan In and Goddard. They're mostly on my avoid list because I want other positions at that time.
Starting point is 00:04:45 And then I skip Evan Ingram because I just don't like, I know, understand where he's ranked. He should be ranked ahead of Kincaid and Laporta, but he's got to me, hardly any upside. I skip him. So it's like a strategy thing and a tears thing where I get why those guys
Starting point is 00:05:01 are there. I don't think they're going to be busts at that draft value, but I don't want them on my team. They don't make sense for my roster. Does that make sense to you guys? Sounds like you're picking busts. No, it's not that at all. I think there's a clear difference.
Starting point is 00:05:14 It's more of a vibes thing. No, it's not that. I think it's an upside thing in many of these cases. It's not like I don't think he's going. He's being drafted as tight end seven, and going, he's being drafted as tight end seven and I think he's going to be tight end 12. But it's your vibe about their upside. Like there are,
Starting point is 00:05:31 like you don't think Dallas Goddard has upside. But he was on almost a thousand yard pace last year and plays on one of the best offenses in football. It's not difficult to make a Dallas Goddard upside case. I think he's got a tremendous upside if there's an injury to one of the two guys. I I think he's got a tremendous upside if there's an injury to one of the two guys. I don't think he has a huge upside if there isn't.
Starting point is 00:05:50 It's more Kittle, I guess, than Goddard anyway. But, I don't know. Kittle has an insane upside. The difference between a bust and a void is probably like, if I'm calling someone a bust, a void is probably like,
Starting point is 00:06:06 if I'm calling someone a bust, I don't think they're going to meet their ADP. If I'm calling someone in a void, they might meet their ADP, but I just don't want them on my team. And a lot of people draft like me, where there is a little bit more emotion to it, right? And like, let me get Schaefer in here,
Starting point is 00:06:22 because Schaefer, I think, has my back. Like, there's just guys, for some guys, I mean, I don't play this game, but for some fantasy managers, I had him last year and he burned me. There's no way I'm drafting him. I don't play that game. But Schaefer, you get you get what I'm talking about here with the avoid this. Right. I really don't think I have to say much because I thought you said it perfectly how I feel. Like, for example, like I would avoid I haven't been drafting Joe Mixon at all, but I don't think he's a bust, but I've had opportunities to draft him. I just don't really want him on my team.
Starting point is 00:06:51 There you go. So I'm like avoiding him, but I don't think he's necessarily going to be a bust because volume alone, he should be great. But I don't really want him because of like the whole upside thing, how you explained. So how is this not a vibes thing? Fine. Call it a vibes thing. That's fine. No, I think, I think you're right So how is this not a vibes thing? Fine, call it a vibes thing. That's fine. No, I think you're right. How is it not a bus thing? You're picking players that are staring you in the face and you're going,
Starting point is 00:07:12 nah. Because I'm avoiding them. No, because Thomas is not saying that Joe Mixon is going to be a bus there. He's just saying that he personally it's almost like I would tell other people it's fine to take Joe Mixon there, but I'm not. He's just not for me personally it's almost like i would tell other people it's fine to take joe mix in there but i'm not he's just not for me that's what thomas is saying and i think
Starting point is 00:07:30 that's no i mean i don't think you should laugh at that because i think a lot of people approach drafts that way you look i'm not i'm not laughing at you like you're i'm just saying like i that's fine that you don't those are certain guys that you don't want to draft that have nothing to do with how many fantasy points you're going to score. Is that what you're saying? It's a don't want to draft list. But it's not a bust list. There's a big difference. A bust is a much harsher label. What I'm saying is I don't have a list of players that I don't want to draft for reasons independent of how many fantasy points I think they're going to score. The guys I don't want to draft are because I don't think it's entirely value dependent. It's because I don't think they're going to score enough points to justify their cost. Yeah. Those
Starting point is 00:08:14 are the guys I don't want to draft. These are also that right, Thomas. I mean, it is also about fantasy points. You know, it's not based on a projection or anything, but Tom, who are you someone you're taking over Joe Mixon at that spot? Let me see something. Are you taking Rashad White over him? No. No, I wouldn't do that. Actually,
Starting point is 00:08:38 Rashad White is somebody I would avoid, but I don't necessarily think he's going to be a bust. I don't really know how to explain it. It's a boring player. I think you did a great job. I thought't really know how to explain it, honestly. It's a boring player. It's like in your mind a boring player. I think you did a great job. I thought, Acer, you did a great job of explaining it. And I think Heath is right.
Starting point is 00:08:51 It is kind of like a vibes thing. Yeah, that's fine. I can dig the vibes. People want to be excited about the guys on their team. They want to be, oh, I'm so pumped. I drafted this guy. Of course. You don't want to take boring players.
Starting point is 00:09:05 Right, right. And I'm not disagreeing that that exists or that you guys, like I'm not putting you down for saying that you do it that way. I'm saying when I do a draft and my rankings are there in the draft room, I just,
Starting point is 00:09:19 there's two or three or four guys at the top of the rankings and well, that guy's not going to be there next time. I'm going to take him. It's not, like, I don't want to. All right, that's cool. That's cool. So I don't even know if we should go through the avoid list,
Starting point is 00:09:34 but give me three players that you are currently avoiding. Either of you can start. I'll call on Dave. Thank you, Mr. Razor naji harris i'm avoiding his adp is the first pick of round three i think it's too soon i believe in jaylen warren being the more explosive running back in pittsburgh but more importantly i'm buying into kenny pickett apparently the training camp practices were amazing the preseason work's been amazing this is a Steelers team that might throw the ball a little bit more than we're all giving him credit for. I think that hurts Najee Harris a lot. So somebody I'm definitely avoiding with an early round three pick now here, maybe let me pause on this for a second. Would I avoid him
Starting point is 00:10:21 if he's staring me in the face in late round three? Yes, I would. Is that kind of what you're asking? That's what I'm asking, that you sit there and he's in this range of running backs. Because I think at this point, Najee's going to fall so far. Some people might be able to take him in late round four, and I still wouldn't even do that, knowing the other running backs on the board. But you probably would. You've always been higher on Najee.
Starting point is 00:10:44 Yeah, not lately. All right, right. So Dobbins is on the board, but you probably would. You've always been higher on Najee, but like if Dobbins... Yeah, not lately. All right, right. So Dobbins is on the board, and Madison is on the board, and Pierce is on the board. You know, you might have Najee ranked there, but you might... Oh, no, I'm taking Pierce.
Starting point is 00:11:00 Yeah, what about the other guys? You take Dobbins? I might, if it's PPR, I might take Najee. All right. All right. But that's how I have it ranked. Maybe Heath is at a difference of like people who do rankings every day and update them every day versus people who don't do rankings.
Starting point is 00:11:15 And so when they sit down in their draft room, they're looking at a list provided by somebody else and they see players on that list and they go, Oh, I think I'm going to avoid that guy. Could it be something like that? I do think like I, when I do,
Starting point is 00:11:28 when I did the Scott fishbowl, um, now I, I did my projections to kind of understand the player values and everything, but then I just mostly just drafted off of vibes and that was kind of fun. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:39 Um, so I do that sometimes. So, but I do think it's, it's, it's a rankings thing. I, although I have found a way to answer
Starting point is 00:11:45 this question. I'm sorry. Let me get two more names from Dave, and then we'll go to Heath. Lamar Jackson's another one. All the quarterback ADPs are pushed up, but he's the one who I think is the most egregious as a late three pick. I think he's more of a round four or round five type guy, definitely in the tier behind Burrow and justin field same tier but behind those guys and i i think people are making a mistake pushing too hard for darren waller his adp right now is early round six i've seen him go on round five uh it's great that he had a 44 percent target share on one drive in a preseason game and and i think he's going to be the target leader in New York, but I don't think it's going to be by a huge margin.
Starting point is 00:12:28 So he's someone I'm, I'm avoiding that whole tier of tight ends, to be honest with you. I love it. Waller, Kittle and Goddard. Thanks. It's beautiful.
Starting point is 00:12:35 Beautiful. Thank you, Dave. All right, Heath, how, how are you going to answer this question? I am,
Starting point is 00:12:40 I'm going to answer it by telling you the guys that I am ranking lower than I am projecting. Okay. So that would be the guys that I'm avoiding, even though I have them projected for more points. And it would be Cooper Cup. It would be Austin Eckler. Derek Henry. Aaron Jones.
Starting point is 00:13:04 Darren Waller. That must be it. And you can kind of tell what all those guys have in common. Yeah. Age. They're all old. All right. So let's go through this.
Starting point is 00:13:17 When would you take Kup? I've got him eighth. When would you take Eckler? Sixth. When would you take Eckler? Sixth. When would you take Derrick Henry? 16. Is Eckler RB2 for you? No.
Starting point is 00:13:37 Who is? I'm pulling it up. Okay, sorry. Right. He is RB5 in non-PPR. would be rb4 in half ppr he is rb2 in full ppr who is ahead of eckler in half ppr bijan barkley mcafree in that order? That's it. No. No.
Starting point is 00:14:07 McCaffrey, Barkley, Bijan. I think you definitely should have said it in order. What? You definitely should have said it in order. I'm glad, Dave. Because I thought for a second Bijan was RB1 for you.
Starting point is 00:14:17 My eyes were about to fall out of my head. Well, a lot of people I've been getting that question. You know, can I take Bijan number one, number two? All right. Where would you take Aaron Jones? Because I thought you actually liked Aaron Jones quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Well, if it wasn't discounting him for age, he would be an early, he'd be a 2-3 turn guy. Okay. End of round three. Okay. So you still, I think, are ahead of him in ADP. You're ahead of him. Right. I've not drafted him very often, but if I'm at the end of round three, I'll draft him. Okay.
Starting point is 00:14:50 All right. Coming up today, we're also going to talk about Superflex and IDP. So if you are in one of those formats, we did both of those yesterday. We did a mock Superflex and a real IDP draft yesterday. We'll give you some words of wisdom there. Draftathon is a week from now.
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Starting point is 00:15:22 Heath and I share a team, and you can compete against us. And right now, ooh, $1,215 right now is the high bid. And we've got one day left to go ahead and make that bid a little bit over 24 hours left. So Thursday at 7 p.m., I believe the bidding ends.
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Starting point is 00:16:45 Put podcast league in the subject line. The draft is Monday night, next Monday at 8 p.m. Eastern. If you cannot make that time, do not submit to be in the league. And we've got a few shows that are airing on CBS Sports Network next week. Monday, Tuesday, and Friday next week we'll be on CBS Sports Network, which is freaking awesome. Very excited for that. 10 to 11 on Monday and Tuesday. 10.30 to 11. Oh, no, no, I for that. 10 to 11 on Monday and Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:17:05 10.30 to 11. Oh, no, no, I'm wrong. 11 to noon on Monday and Tuesday, right? 11 to noon? Yeah, I think so. 10.30 to 11.30 on Friday. 11 to noon on Monday and Tuesday. 10.30 to 11.30 on Friday.
Starting point is 00:17:16 We'll be on CBS Sports Network talking fantasy. Is this a big deal, Adam? Yeah, to me it is. I would say so. So we usually don't ask our audience to like help us out you know sometimes it's like podcast award voting we ask and obviously the the draft if you guys wouldn't mind watching or just setting your dvr yeah man kind of cool yeah it'd be great it's gonna be a nice way to to help us out so if we've helped you help us and help us out. So if we've helped you, help us.
Starting point is 00:17:47 And help us help you. And all right, we got a poll up here. Poll is, is there a difference between an avoid list and a bust list? And we've been canceled from cable TV. I will tell you the results when we come back. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year.
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Starting point is 00:18:32 We got news and notes, a lot of them. An update on Jackson Smith and Jigba and the Seahawks passing game. Baker Mayfield being named the starting quarterback. First though, is there a difference between a bust list and an avoid list? And this is where I feel like I'm really connected to the people.
Starting point is 00:18:47 Because 71% said yes, 23% said no, and 7% said I'm confused. All right, let's get to the- How many said see results? That wasn't an option. This was a Schaefer poll. I'm confused, but good enough. Yeah. So Aaron Rodgers,
Starting point is 00:19:08 before we get to the JSN thing, Dave, you quote tweeted something about Aaron Rodgers raving about Brees Hall and how good he looks. And you said something like if Brees Hall is
Starting point is 00:19:16 there at pick 45 or something, take him. I don't remember what it was. Yeah, yeah. I'm all in on Brees Hall. I'm excited that he's
Starting point is 00:19:24 practicing with the team. This is the second person on the jets to talk about how fast he's running on the GPS. It sounds like he's making good progress back on the knee. And it sounds like he'll be an impact player. And if Aaron Rogers has gotten to look at him and he goes, Oh, this guy's pretty darn good. I'd like to get him involved in the offense.
Starting point is 00:19:42 Then that guy's going to get involved in the offense. So I'm not taking him in round three. That's way too soon. And, uh, okay. I've got them ranked. I'm ranked 40th in PPR. Would I take him at 40? I don't think I have to, because I've got so many other guys that are going to go after him ahead of him in my rankings. So maybe I would avoid him at 40th, but by no means is he a bust. And if I see him in late round four or into round five, I am taking Brees Hall
Starting point is 00:20:12 almost whether I need him or not. This is an interesting, an interesting discussion, I think, because like that, that Brees Hall at 40. And I think you're right. Like if you have a guy ranked at 40 and it's pick 40,
Starting point is 00:20:25 there's a pretty good chance there's somebody you have ranked at 36 or 37 that's still there. But you are on the clock at pick 40 and you think, you know, he's not going to go
Starting point is 00:20:34 pick 44 or 45 or whatever, but you're not going to pick again until pick 56. There's a pretty good chance that Brees Hall is gone. Are you saying that you'd take somebody that you had ranked behind Brees Hall? No. Even if you might not, if Brees Hall is gone. Are you saying that you'd take somebody that you had ranked behind Brees Hall?
Starting point is 00:20:45 No. Even if you might not, if Brees Hall is the top ranked player at 40, you'd take him at 40. Sure. And the context is there are a number of running backs I would take ahead of him. There's Aaron Jones, ETN, Pierce, Gibbs, Ramondre. And for now I have Najee one notch ahead of Brees Hall. I don't know if I can, I don't know if I can flip Najee below Brees Hall.
Starting point is 00:21:07 That's the one that I just look at. And I go, maybe. Might depend on what my team looks like by the time I'm picking at 40th overall. If I really struck it big with my first few picks, first three picks, I guess, then I might do it. I might just keep chasing that upside, that dreamy, imaginary upside. Look at the ADP in NFC drafts over the last week. And I like NFC.
Starting point is 00:21:33 You can set a date range. The RBs go super low. The big difference between NFC and the other websites I see is that wide receivers go earlier in this and running backs go later. But Brees Hall is RB 16. He's going 53rd overall. I see is that wide receivers go earlier in this and running backs go lower, go later. Sorry, but Brees Hall is RB 16. It's going 53rd overall.
Starting point is 00:21:52 ETN Mixon and Aaron Jones are 13, 14 and 15. Then it's Brees Hall. Then it's Javante Williams at RB 17. Yeah. And then Ken Walker, 18 Dobbins, Cook, Madison Pierce.
Starting point is 00:22:04 So I got Javante Williams, I think in in round seven or eight in our IDP draft. And I was obviously thrilled. I have Javante Williams ahead of Brees Hall. What's the argument for, like, Javante's back sooner. We've been discounting him because he's going to be in this shared role with Samaj P. Ryan. But Samaj P Ryan, but Samaj P Ryan is not near as big a threat as Dalvin cook. So if, if,
Starting point is 00:22:30 if Javante is recovered, more recovered and has less competition, I, I like why, why would the oof that Javante is so close to breeze hole and ADP because I don't think he's as good of a player. I'm just surprised by it, Heath. It hasn't even been close.
Starting point is 00:22:50 And now being back-to-back in just one website's ADP over the last... And I did notice in CBS PPR leagues, Brees has fallen 13 spots. He's down to RB20 at pick 53. Yeah. Him in the 40s would be crazy to me, but I don't know, man, like in round four. Well, cause I'm used to seeing all those really exciting wide receivers going around for, you know, Hopkins and Judy and DJ Moore. And it's a really good wide receiver round. Um, typically for us, but all right, anyway, uh, let's go to our next news item.
Starting point is 00:23:24 It is Terry McLaurin could play week one. Now, JSN. Jackson Smith and Jigba had surgery, or will have surgery for a broken wrist. His timetable is unclear. Have not ruled him out for week one. I don't think a lot of people think he'll be back for week one, but it's possible. They open with the Rams. Then they're at the Lions.
Starting point is 00:23:42 Carolina at the Giants. Monday Night Football. I plan on going to that game see all their JSN all right Dave wants to do Dave wants to do his projections for Seattle wide receivers but first of all guys how long should fantasy managers think if we're drafting today and we take JSN what should we expect and I know it's hard to know but we have to at least give people a guideline. What should they think for the timetable here? I don't think that my timetable for when I think he could be the number one wide receiver for Seattle has changed,
Starting point is 00:24:14 which is the second half of the season. But I wasn't planning on starting him week one. Right. And so you definitely shouldn't plan on that. I think maybe you're thinking now that maybe by week three or week four, I'll feel comfortable starting him. Okay. All right, Dave, what do you, what do you got for projections here?
Starting point is 00:24:36 Well, we're, I wanted to compare my projections to Heath's projections, just to see how close or far away we were on all three of the Seahawks. Are we doing JSN first or last? Let's go Metcalf, Lockett, JSN. Okay, so Metcalf I've got at 135 targets, 85 catches, 1,079 yards, and eight touchdowns. That is 14.2 PPR points per game. How many catches?
Starting point is 00:25:01 85. Okay. I think the only difference is I basically have them with 10 fewer targets. Okay. Because I've got 126 targets. 79 for 990 and 7.5. So the ratios are almost identical. And it's just that I have 10 fewer targets for DK than you do.
Starting point is 00:25:23 Okay. So neither of us have them projected for 15 PPR points per game. Adam, if you don't mind, can you look at the ADPs for these guys, including DK, in full PPR? Yeah, I will use... That way we can compare where they're going with what the production might be. Yeah, I'll use Fantasy Pro's full PPR. Okay, and I do expect DK to be less affected by JSN being in Seattle than Lockett.
Starting point is 00:25:48 Metcalf is wide receiver 15. He is a third round pick. Let's go to Lockett's projections. Okay. So a little rich for a guy who might not get 15 PPR points per game. In fact, he hasn't even gotten 14 PPR points per game each of the last two seasons. Lockett, 122 targets, 78 catches, 982 yards, six touchdowns, 16 games, 13.3 PPR points per game. So I think you're a little low on the efficiency for Lockett, which is easy to be because he is one of the most efficient wide receivers of all time, and he's 30 years old. So if you want to ding him for that, I think that's okay. I've got about 115 targets, 81 catches, 1,002 yards, 6.6 touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:26:35 Okay. I think he's going to run a little further downfield this year because of JSN being there. I think JSN is their solution to cover two and and you know short and mid-range throws and i don't know if lockett's going to pick up as many so that's why i've made them less efficient and uh it's interesting i have more targets for him than you do adp on lockett adam wide receiver 28 74th overall uh i think that's really good value for a guy that we're projecting to have north of 13 PPR points per game.
Starting point is 00:27:09 Well, yesterday, I think I saw the news, and I thought JSN would probably be back for week one. I feel like the timeline got a little bit more pessimistic as the day went on when we heard from Pete Carroll. But I took Pickens over Lockett and I later, I hate myself for it. I should not. Oh,
Starting point is 00:27:29 you might not. Once the season gets going, I don't know. I think it was a mistake. And I think this is, you know, not to derail this projections thing, but should we be boosting Metcalf and Lockett?
Starting point is 00:27:40 You guys have been calling Metcalf a bust for a while because he's going in the middle of the third round. He's going before a big group of wide receivers that you like better than him. And in our drafts, just our internal drafts, whatever, he's usually kind of a late fourth round, mid to late fourth round pick. Do you still feel that way? Should we be boosting Metcalf and Lockett with this JSN news? Has DK been worth a round three pick without JSN? Look, just answer the question. I don't want
Starting point is 00:28:12 to get into that again. But JSN's going to miss at most two games. But he's also a rookie. He's also a rookie who's never played before that now has a preseason injury. So should you boost Lockett and or Metcalf? No i i would say no okay okay in fact i did not nor did i move down jsn so now let's get to jsn's projections i do have
Starting point is 00:28:35 projected for 16 games 106 targets 71 catches 823 yards seven touchdown, 12.2 PPR points per game. You're, you're higher on, on him as well. That's an insane touchdown rate. Um, I know 78, 34 and five and a half on 104 targets.
Starting point is 00:28:54 So almost the same for all three of these guys. Yeah. ADP on JSN double a wide receiver, 36 95th overall, just ahead of Jordan Addison. almost right where i have but i have addison higher yeah me too uh based on two nerds projections and the adp that adam's telling us lock it seems like the best value rinse wash repeat when it comes to the Seattle wide receivers. Okay.
Starting point is 00:29:29 So that covers the Seattle wide receivers. Nobody else can. Baker Mayfield named the starting quarterback for Tampa Bay. He played 12 games last year. He scored single-digit fantasy points in half of his games. And that's in six-point per pass in touchdown leagues.
Starting point is 00:29:43 But look at the start. Look at the schedule for Mayfield at Minnesota and then Chicago. His first two games. I know Minnesota made a lot of upgrades on defense. Chicago did too. I'm not sure about their secondary.
Starting point is 00:29:57 Those would be two beautiful matchups, but does anybody care starting the season for Baker Mayfield? Maybe it keeps Kyle Trask on the bench until week four. Trask is going to play at some point. Sanders said he'll absolutely be ready for week one at
Starting point is 00:30:13 Atlanta, then New Orleans in his first two games. Peter King of NBC Sports said we should be really, really careful drafting Bijan Robinson because there are too many mouths to feed. Peter King also said that he stinks at fantasy football and we should take it with a shaker of salt and not a grain of salt. I don't know how he can say that after Arthur Smith took this guy
Starting point is 00:30:34 as a top 10 pick. Obviously, a top 10 rookie pick in Arthur Smith offense is going to be just fantasy gold. I can't tell if you're doing a bit. I can't tell. I feel like that was dripped in sarcasm, drenched. It was. Okay. Because he's taking a top ten skill position player each of the last two seasons, and they've not been finished. Yeah, that's that's actually a pretty good argument against me. The argument for is that he's an unbelievably talented running back who's looked great on the field, both in preseason games and practice.
Starting point is 00:31:06 And this team was like the best in football running it last year with Mariota under center and Tyler Algier getting 1,000 yards. Bijan Robinson really looked so fast. Oh, my God. It was really. Same thing in practice against the Dolphins. Although you couldn't really tell. You could see the cuts against the Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:31:30 They did a lot of red zone the day I was there. So you couldn't really get an idea for long speed. But if you've watched him play football, you've seen it. And the way that they were lining him up. He was in jet motion multiple times with Algier in the backfield. He lined up wide.
Starting point is 00:31:44 He lined up in the slot. He's going to be, and he was unguardable in goal-to-go, seven-on-seven drills. He scored a touchdown every time. And he would have had a touchdown. I don't know if you watched the game. You can't see it on the film. Oh, he's wide open.
Starting point is 00:32:01 He was wide open. The play after London had the catch, but the Bengals challenged it. So it was a combination of poor coverage, obviously by Cincinnati, but he was wide open for another touchdown. He's going to get, he's going to get like six touchdowns receiving. I mean,
Starting point is 00:32:17 I cannot believe Ritter didn't throw that football. That was really pathetic. But anyway, anyway, don't, don't comment jets left tackle. Dwayne Brown will come off the pup list today. Their offensive line is healthy. Now the athletics, But anyway, don't comment. Jets left tackle Dwayne Brown will come off the pup list today.
Starting point is 00:32:26 Their offensive line is healthy now. The Athletics' Paul Danner thinks that Chris Evans could be the Bengals' passing downs back. Chris Evans. He's going to be. That's what he did best in college. He ran the ball a lot in college, too, but that's what he's best at. So do you handcuff Joe Mixon? I shouldn't have said it that way. Do you draft a handcuff
Starting point is 00:32:47 for Joe Mixon? Deeper leagues you could. I wouldn't in a standard or PPR 14 team, 12 manager league. Yeah, I'm not really into handcuffs, but I don't mind drafting a Bengals backup running
Starting point is 00:33:03 back. He's into whips. Chris Evans? I think I need to move him ahead of Chase Brown, yeah. I think you have to, unfortunately. Dave with a zinger there. I like that. By the way, Joe Mixon only played 47 snaps on third down last year. Samajit Pirine played 136.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Here's a hidden bust factor for Joe Mixon. And I said this about Josh Jacobs, Mixon, Ramondre, I'd say, but he might play more on third down. What if they just don't throw to the running backs on first and second down as much? The Bengals had the third most targets to running backs on first and second down last year. The year before, they were 30th in running back targets on first and second down. year. The year before, they were 30th in running back targets on first and second down.
Starting point is 00:33:47 But you know what happened. I don't think teams are just going to decide they're okay with Jamar Chase running down the sideline in single coverage like that happened two years ago. They got the Patrick Mahomes
Starting point is 00:34:01 shell coverage treatment and so they started throwing underneath a bunch. I understand. And they will continue to do that. But this was sort of an extreme version of that. You know, I could see the ADOT going up or the air yards per pass attempt going up for Burrow. It was pretty damn low last year. And just a lot of dump offs.
Starting point is 00:34:17 Maybe that could change. I'm just saying Mixon is not a third down back. He caught a lot of passes. He's not a third down back. People just need to be aware of that. And Mike Kosicki and Ty Montgomery both returned to practice for the Patriots. he's not a third down back. He caught a lot of passes. He's not a third down back. People just need to be aware of that. Um, and Micah sticky and time Montgomery both returned to practice for the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:34:29 Who's the third down back for the Patriots. You think, you know, it, it could be Ezekiel Elliott. If it's a passing down, if it's like third and seven and they got to have an extra protector for Mac Jones.
Starting point is 00:34:47 Okay. To the avoid i think it really depends on if bill o'brien's going to draw up as many screenplays they did last year if they're going to use their running back more in protection i agree it will be zeke all right to the avoid list here dave's avoid list this is based on fantasy pros half ppr adp naji harris we already talked about lamar Jackson, we talked about. Darren Waller, we talked about. But you're really avoiding Darren Waller's 62nd overall? Yes. Wow. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:10 Guy who's missed at least six games each of the past two years. I don't see him being back to his dominant ways in New York. I still believe this offense is going to spread the ball around. What happened when they got in the red zone? You were there, offense is going to spread the ball around. What happened when they got in the red zone? You were there, Adam. Two plays in the red zone. What happened to Darren Waller? They threw a touchdown to a different tight end. And you know
Starting point is 00:35:33 why? Because Darren Waller was running interference for him because he drew a double team. He's going to get covered down there. It's going to be difficult for him. Good players always get covered down there, don't they? I mean, is that... Well, Darren Waller has one season where he scored more than three touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:35:51 But even if he scores, let's say, how many touchdowns do you think he scores? I think he'll score more than three. How many touchdowns? I think I have him at five. I don't think I've projected him. Oh, you know what? I might have.
Starting point is 00:36:00 All right. Let's say Darren Waller scores five touchdowns. Is he going to be a bust at 62nd overall it depends you got to compare it to Kittle and Goddard we've already talked about how Goddard has never had more than five touchdowns in a season you know what you know what it's going to come down to it's going to come down to whether or not I'm right about the targets and whether or not Darren Waller's on the field because everybody everybody's going to say, oh, he was a bust. He only played half the season.
Starting point is 00:36:26 If he gets hurt again, no reason to believe that his talent has dropped off. Although he did drop that pass that he got when he got hit. Smashed. Yeah. I do think it's like there are certain players who were discounting because of age and or injury history. And I usually say, if you get hurt, are you really a bust? But if one of the reasons that we're scared to draft them is because of their injury history,
Starting point is 00:36:51 then maybe it should be factored in. But I think the other question is just how much do the Giants... There's a lot of projecting going on in this Darren Waller bounce-back season about the Giants turning into a more pass heavy team about Daniel Jones supporting a number one weapon about the passing game being good so yeah like if he scores five touchdowns and he has 800 yards receiving then I do think he's going to be a bust at the 5-6 turn. I've got a projection for him. All right, let's finish up on Waller here.
Starting point is 00:37:27 Go ahead. I only am playing 13 games. I don't know if Heath does this. I don't know if you deduct games in your projection. No. Okay, well, I did. Well, some I do. Okay.
Starting point is 00:37:39 I have him getting 6.5 targets per game. In 13 games, it's 84 targets. Catch rate of 62%, so that's 52 grabs. 12.1 yards per catch is 629, and six touchdowns in 13 games. So let's just say I'm right, and he does exactly that in 13 games. It's still good. It's 11.6 PPR points per game, which is why I have him as my i think tight ends five or six all right you said you're basically avoiding that that whole range of tight ends well it's the wall or kittle got a range is that a it's 11 points per game at the five six turn good enough from a tight end for you
Starting point is 00:38:20 adam yeah i think so but compare it to other positions. I don't know off the top of my head. It seems maybe a little low, like 12, I think would be. But I don't know. Yeah, that's where you take a tight end like that if you really want to say, I want a guy who I don't have to stream.
Starting point is 00:38:42 You basically say you don't want to stream tight ends, but you don't want to spend a top 30 pick on a tight end. So that was Goddard last year, basically. He was 11.9. Hawkinson was 12.6. That's a little low. It's a little low. I'd say a little bit more than that.
Starting point is 00:38:59 Because you could probably get 10 points five rounds later. Right. So if you just heard my projection and you think that I'm full of BS, you need to be one of the people going after Waller in round five. All right. Wait, Heath never gave his projection. I think, yeah, I've got him at 10.9 fancy points per game.
Starting point is 00:39:20 So basically the same thing. All right. Dave's avoiding Ken Walker at 40th overall. Too soon. As much as we can sit here and make the case for him, to me, it's almost 20 picks too soon. He's my most drafted player, but I would
Starting point is 00:39:35 never take him there. Yeah. Yeah, I think we've talked about Ken Walker a lot as a bust and as a void. I think he really needs an injury to Zach Charbonnet to have big upside, and I think he's a risk. So I think it's a low floor and a lower ceiling thing for me.
Starting point is 00:40:01 I can't get an answer out of Seattle on whether or not he'll be their goal line guy i figured by now it might be obvious if he were like someone would tell me you know someone who's been watching their practices would tell me oh yeah he's their guy not sharpen well how many times they practiced let's see i guess that's a fair point he hasn't practiced much right yeah um but i i think i think like but he is one of those guys that's really interesting to think about, like, what is upside? Because he makes really big plays. And so it seems like, yeah, he's got upside. But if you're not the passing downs back and you're not a workhorse running back, then do you really have upside?
Starting point is 00:40:40 No. But if he's getting the majority of the carries, I don't think anybody's going to fault you if you say 1,200 yards if he stays healthy. And if he's getting short yardage goal line, look, I think this team's going to be pretty good all the way around. Nine, ten touchdowns if I'm getting really aggressive. Yeah, all right. Well, we will be de-pantsed if he does that.
Starting point is 00:41:04 That is not a good one good that's a lot of touchdowns that'd be a very good right that but that's the upside play for him and he doesn't need a lot of catches to come through on that that's ken walker uh giovante williams 66th overall deandre swift yeah it's giovante williams deandre swift dalvin cook between 65th and 68th overall giovante swift and cook giovante is the one that i'm probably closest to of that group between 65th and 68th overall? Javante, Swift, and Cook. Javante is the one that I'm probably closest to of that group, but I still think it's just a little too early, especially in full PPR.
Starting point is 00:41:37 Nervous about him getting, you know, certainly the types of catches like we saw in the preseason game. One of his targets was actually a great play by him. He was just running a go route and he realized that Russ was in trouble. He came back toward Russ, made a great catch along the sideline. Another one was a flip throw from Russ. Like Russ was under pressure because his offensive line stinks.
Starting point is 00:41:59 And so he just flipped it to Javante who was like right place, right time gain of four yards. I don't know how many plays there will be like that for him over the course of the season. I think P Ryan's there to play in passing downs. I think P Ryan will lead the running backs in catches. And I just, I feel like Javante is going to need a lot of touchdowns to really be good. He strikes me as the type of running back. That's going to get you between 9 and 12 points per week regardless. Well, 9 through 12 in PPR, 8 to 11 in non-PPR. That could be solid. One catch per game?
Starting point is 00:42:33 One or two catches per game. Okay. What if Javante is playing the Camara role and P. Ryan is the Mark Ingram? I'd be surprised. I don't know if either guy profiles as Alvin Camara. I don't know if either guy profiles at Mark
Starting point is 00:42:55 Ingram. When he's healthy, Javante Williams is a faster back. He's better in space than P. Ryan and P. Ryan's got 20 or 30 pounds on Javante. I keep, I just,
Starting point is 00:43:10 I wonder if maybe we got those roles wrong, but I liked Javante in that range. I agree completely with Dave on the other two guys. All right. Heath's avoid list. Do you want to go through every name or do you want to just kind of give a sort of a broader look at this? I, well, I think I've talked about all, all all of these guys i didn't do a very good job let me see is there is there anybody on my list that we didn't
Starting point is 00:43:32 talk about no i see nick chubb on an avoid list and i i think that that's got to be discussed well it's a full ppr league and and he's going basically the first round. I think you've got to be a top five running back, maybe a top three or four running back to be worth a first round pick in PPR. And Nick Chubb's done that once in his career, and now he's turning 28 years old. I think you have to project a career year for Nick Chubb for him to be worth his ADP. And I don't want to do that
Starting point is 00:44:05 with a running back of his age on an offense with as many questions as the Browns have. Chubb's ADP is 13th overall. I noticed you have Mahomes at nine, you're avoiding. Burrow at 33, Herbert at 38. So that's three of the top six or seven quarterbacks here. So what does that mean for your quarterback strategy if you're avoiding Mahomes? This is CBS ADP, by the way. Mahomes in the first round, Burrow and Herbert in the third round, Herbert maybe in the early fourth round.
Starting point is 00:44:35 If you're avoiding them, what does that mean for you, especially if you have a late pick in the first round because all these guys basically line up toward the end of the first, end of the third, beginning of the second. Right. Well, it just illustrates that, like, honestly, obviously, Jalen Hurts at pick 14 or 15 or whatever. I'm not picking him either.
Starting point is 00:44:55 Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert were the furthest from where I have them ranked. Fields is actually going about where I have him ranked. So based on CBS rankings, my strategy would probably be draft Justin Fields. And if I miss him, draft Tua or Anthony Richardson. Those are the three quarterbacks in the top 10 rounds who are being drafted a place where I feel pretty good about them. But I drafted Mahomes two days ago at 19 overall. So not entirely avoiding him,
Starting point is 00:45:24 but as much as I love him, I'm not taking him in round one. And I'm not taking Burrow. If I'm taking a quarterback in round, I'm not taking a quarterback in round three, but if I'm taking a quarterback in round four, it's going to be one of the rushers, Fields or Jackson.
Starting point is 00:45:37 And I think Burrow is interesting because this RADP has Burrow going 33rd overall. Looking at NFC ADP over the last week, Burrow is QB4, and he's going 38th overall. So that's pretty rich, but I think it's pretty realistic because I'm seeing it in some drafts of Burrow falling because he's got that little injury designation on him. And I didn't love the draft that I did yesterday in the IDP League,
Starting point is 00:46:07 but one of the things that I felt good about was I passed on Josh Allen. I had the first overall pick. I passed on Josh Allen at the 2-3 turn, and I got Burrow later. Was it the 5-6 turn? It probably was. Hopefully it was 7-8 turn. But anyway, probably not, right? So I took Burrow, yeah, at the 4-5 turn.
Starting point is 00:46:32 I had the turns wrong. But yeah, I was fine with that. Would you guys take Burrow in the 4-5 range? Yeah, I mean, you're hoping to get him at a value. But if you don't think he's going to last much longer and you feel like that's still not a bad place to take him then take him i would yeah in a full ppr i wouldn't take any of these guys at the three four turn um non-ppr jackson and fields get pretty close to that for me but I do think like passing on I don't know I think there's a pretty big difference between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow
Starting point is 00:47:11 so if it's Josh Allen at the 2-3 or Burrow at the 4-5 I would I would rather take Allen I mean yeah I agree with you in a four point per passing touchdown league six point per passing touchdown league you feel the same way, though? Yeah, because we did see Joe Burrow do it for eight games last year, nine games, 29 fantasy points per game. We've seen Josh Allen do that for three seasons. And I think that projection-wise, you're looking at probably a four-to-five-point difference
Starting point is 00:47:39 between those two guys. I don't know that you get a four-to-five-point difference in a two-round swing at other positions like that. Fair. All right. So let's take a break here. When we come back, we'll talk about the super flex draft. We'll talk about the IDP draft. We'll give you some tips there. We'll be right back. Don't forget to send us emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. And we've got a mailbag. We record it every Friday. It publishes audio wise, publishes on Saturday. And if you're watching on YouTube, you can watch the mailbag. We record it every Friday. It publishes, audio-wise, publishes on Saturday. And if you're watching on YouTube,
Starting point is 00:48:06 you can watch the mailbag before Saturday. But if you're watching, please hit the donate button and hit the like button. We'd really appreciate it. All right, Superflex thoughts. Let me give you the last three championship round teams, like the last six teams to be in the championship round of our 12-team Super
Starting point is 00:48:25 Flex League and what they did at quarterback. I always say there's just different ways to get the job done in Super Flex. Last year, it was Marone and Dave. Marone took quarterbacks at 2.2 and 3.11. Justin Fields at 3.11. Dave took quarterbacks at 1.3. That was Mahomes
Starting point is 00:48:42 and Cousins at 3.3. So you both had your quarterbacks in the first three rounds your top two of the first three picks were qbs 2021 uh rj white took kyler murray in round one and jalen hertz in round three and did not draft the third quarterback but dave also i don't know if you won i i don't think you won i think you lost in the finals two years in a row actually but it's pretty. Good job. Thanks for bringing that up. You didn't lose in the final. Are we going to talk about the history of the IDP League next?
Starting point is 00:49:09 Yes. Maybe. Controversial history. Dave basically tied in the final, and then we still had the, you know, obviously we had the Bills-Bengals game last year. But two years ago, you drafted Dak Prescott 1.10, and then you drafted Trey Lance in the sixth round and Drew Locke
Starting point is 00:49:27 in the ninth round and you made the championship. So that's pretty cool. Obviously, you struggled at those two quarterbacks. I might have been able to win the championship if I hadn't have drafted those guys. Well, you did a good job. 2020, Ben Gretsch won and he had quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:49:44 at 111 and 2.2 in Kyler and Russell won, and he had quarterbacks at 111 and 2.2 in Kyler and Russell Wilson, but Marone Berkson, who won last year, lost in the finals, and he didn't take a quarterback until round three. Drew Brees in round three, Ryan Tannehill in round seven, Drew Locke in round eight. Drew Locke
Starting point is 00:49:59 seems to be the key to victory. Yeah, yeah, look at that. Drew Locke. What the hell? All right, so anyway uh different ways to get it done but what are your overall super flex thoughts heath i would like to get one of the elite guys early um i i'm probably going to take one in the first two or three rounds i think where people make a mistake is chasing the qBs in round three, four, five. I think last night in our super flex mock, I don't remember how far he fell, but like there was, it was a Russell Wilson. I almost took Russell Wilson two or three rounds in a row. And then I finally took Russell Wilson as my second
Starting point is 00:50:39 quarterback in round five or six. But you do get to that point to where the guys who were going to take quarterback early already have two. And you go through a little bit of a dry stretch where there's just not a quarterback taken or maybe there's one. Maybe Jordan Love was taken before Russell Wilson or something like that. So I do think there's that gap where you need to wait.
Starting point is 00:51:00 Well, which quarterbacks are you comfortable with as your number two quarterback? I imagine if it were Baker Mayfield, he wouldn't be very happy about it. But if it were Jordan Love or Kenny Pickett, would you be okay with that? I'd be fine with it. Sam Howell's fine. Okay. How about you, Dave?
Starting point is 00:51:15 I mean, I prefer to take two with my first three picks in a Superflex or a 2QB league. I did not do that in our mock yesterday. And I took one quarterback early. I think it was Herbert. And then I, who are my two quarterbacks after I waited a while? Ritter is my three. I don't even remember who my two is, but it's ugly. Yeah. You have a loaded team except for quarterback, basically maybe tight end too. Um, I can tell you in just a moment but you have a team yeah bryce young and you know what like when i got bryce young i was break dancing because i was excited that i didn't have to settle for mac jones or desmond ritter as my qb2 at least i got a quarterback in bryce young who has some upside i know we didn't really see it in the preseason, but he's got something there.
Starting point is 00:52:07 We know that. We saw him play in college. But that's usually not the strategy I employ. I just got faced with amazing values at other positions all the way through the draft. Yeah. Justin Herbert was your pick at 110, then Eckler, then in the third round, Olave, then Derrick Henry, then DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London, James Cook. At that point, there really weren't a lot of great quarterbacks left,
Starting point is 00:52:31 so you just kept waiting. I was the first one to take three quarterbacks last night. And actually, we did this St. Jude donation thing where I was allowing people to pay $25 to make my picks. So they made most of my first five, four picks. And then like one more at one or two more after that, I had McCaffrey Barkley and Garrett Wilson. I didn't love the start. And then I had Aaron Rogers in round four, then Jordan love, which is fun. Rogers and love. I took Kyler Murray though, as the third, as my third quarterback back to back to back
Starting point is 00:53:02 picks. I went Rogers, Jordan, love Kyler Murray. Murray's an interesting player. If you're not strong at quarterback and you want to take a swing for the fences, as your third quarterback, I thought that was kind of... I was actually happy with that. I have no idea how it would turn out. We're not playing it out, but it was interesting.
Starting point is 00:53:17 He is my most drafted quarterback so far in redraft leagues this year because he's just... He goes undrafted in a lot of one-quarterback leagues. I do think that he's the type of guy who, if he gets to week seven or week eight and he's Kyler Murray,
Starting point is 00:53:34 well, that's an enormous value. So how about... This was an interesting draft last night. We usually do six-point-per-passing touchdown league super flex. This was four-point, and I do think that contributed to a little bit of a slide, especially in the second round. We had only two quarterbacks taken in the second round to Sean Watson and to a tongue
Starting point is 00:53:52 of Iloa. Then we had five in the third round. But Dave, what changes for you in four point versus six point? You know the deal. Those rushing touchdowns count a little bit more. The passing touchdowns count a little bit less. So those quarterbacks don't quite give you the same amount of production. It makes you want to pivot toward the running quarterbacks a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:54:13 So, for example, in this format, I don't have rankings for four-point. We all should. I don't think Mahomes would be my number one, and I don't think he'd be my number two either. Well, I'm less interested in that, I guess, and how in four-point league it changes drafting other positions versus quarterback. I mean, do you care less about your super flex in a four-point?
Starting point is 00:54:36 Right, so generally, no. It's more about the order of the quarterbacks that go. Okay. Yeah, I would say i do like that i've got my homes projected for 115 more points in six point per pass touchdown leagues than qb 12 and also qb 11 and qb 13 because they're all the same the difference is like 95 points in four point. And Josh Allen's actually QB one. So I do think that it's kind of like wide receivers and non PPR that they get scrunched closer together.
Starting point is 00:55:24 Do you think in a super flex league that it is easier to pass up on a quarterback in the second round? Let's say you took a quarterback in the first round that it's easier to pass up on a quarterback in the second round. Let's say you took a quarterback in the first round, that it's easier to pass up on a quarterback in the second round if you have an early pick. Because I feel like maybe by the middle of the third round, the top 15 quarterbacks are probably off the board. And then you're looking at Russell Wilson and Pickett and Love. You said you're fine with that, Heath.
Starting point is 00:55:42 But if you did feel like, okay, I want, my second quarterback, I want to be someone in the Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, maybe Aaron Rodgers range,
Starting point is 00:55:53 okay, then you should probably just go ahead and take quarterback. I'm sorry, that you want it to be no worse than those guys. Then you should probably just take QB, QB to start because they're all going to be gone
Starting point is 00:56:02 by the third round. I think it depends on how many quarterbacks you have in that range. I don't have a big difference between Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. Okay. So I'm fine. I got Russell Wilson in round six. So I think a lot of times one of those guys is going to slide past round three, especially in a four-point league.
Starting point is 00:56:22 All right. Let's talk IDP here. We'll do this quickly. We have a weird IDP draft that I don't really think makes a lot of sense to break down because I don't know a lot of people who play in IDP. Nine IDP, you know, you got nine IDP spots. It's kind of crazy.
Starting point is 00:56:37 You have 10 bench spots. It's a super deep league. But first of all, who are the best IDPs? Well, maybe we should talk about what the teams that have done in the past. Do you have the record of who won that league in the past and how they did it? Heath may or may not have had an undefeated season last year. You know, we don't know. It's undisputed that it is undefeated.
Starting point is 00:56:59 We didn't get to play out the last week. There was no defeat. We just don't know, Heath. I can't. Undefeated. I just don't feel right calling it an undefeated league. How many games did I lose? Well, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:57:12 We just didn't get to play it out. Zero is the answer. No, I think, and I get this question a lot. People send me their IDP leagues where they just start one linebacker, one defensive lineman, one defensive back. And maybe that is more common. I think most of the people who really play IDP say that's not really IDP. Because if you only need to start one of each position, you shouldn't take them until the double-digit rounds. There's enough for everybody to start a really good one at every
Starting point is 00:57:40 position. So I do think starting two or three, we start three linebackers, three safeties, two defensive linemen and a defensive flex. That does make it more like IDP where it matters. I think the first defensive player usually goes around six, around five, around six, around seven in our league. And it's usually those high tackle linebackers. It really, really is hard to tell people where they should select the defensive players and what they should prioritize because there's not as much of a standardized scoring system. overs relative to sacks. But if it's like our league, which I think is one point for a tackle, three points for a sack, two points for a pick, is that right? I don't even know for sure. Then those high tackle linebackers,
Starting point is 00:58:34 Foye, Aluacon, Roquan Smith, Bobby Wagner, Okereke, Nick Bolton, CJ Mosley, those are probably going to be the first guys off the board. Do you feel like there are basically 12 of those guys? Because if you are in a league where you only start one linebacker,
Starting point is 00:58:52 one defensive lineman, one defensive back, I thought maybe there was a case to be made that you should go a little earlier to make sure. Maybe you don't have to be the first. I might do that with defensive linemen. Okay. Because that's like the tight end of IDPs. It's really hard to find good D linemen, certainly consistent D linemen.
Starting point is 00:59:12 Yeah. My first IDP in our draft was Miles Garrett. I took him with the fourth pick in round seven. And he's eligible where? D line. D line, okay. Because some of those rushers, they're eligible only at linebacker, which is a very, very important distinction.
Starting point is 00:59:28 When you have a guy like Micah Parsons, if he's eligible at defensive line, that's huge. If he's eligible at linebacker, I don't really know. I can tell you, I guess, where he ranked in our scoring at linebacker. He's still a number two or number three linebacker and a good one.
Starting point is 00:59:42 Just not, he's not the top. And like those things are not standardized across sites. Nope. So the best thing you can do is go find the defensive linemen or the linebackers who are eligible at defensive line. And those are the guys that – and sometimes we have, I think, guys who are playing a lot of linebacker who are eligible at safety. Those are the guys that,
Starting point is 01:00:12 if you can get linebackers eligible in other positions, get drafted for those guys. Yeah, Micah Parsons, in the league that we're in, our scoring system, he would have been the number two defensive lineman last year
Starting point is 01:00:23 behind Max Crosby. And he was like the 25th to 30th. I didn't even count. I don't even think he was a top 24 linebacker, Micah Parsons. So it's a huge, huge difference. Make sure you're aware of those edge rushers and where they are eligible. Okay, any sleepers?
Starting point is 01:00:42 IDP sleepers. I gave David Long of Miami at linebacker and the co-dean of Philadelphia at linebacker as sleepers. Dean replaces a guy in a TJ Edwards from last year, who was the fifth highest scoring linebacker in our format. I don't know if he'll replace him exactly, but we're talking about an inside linebacker basically filling those shoes. David Long and N'Kobi Deamer, sleepers for me. Anybody have IDP sleepers? One of my favorite guys that I discovered last year was Mike Hecht of the Rams. On CBS, he's
Starting point is 01:01:17 DL eligible. You can check your site to see if he's eligible at that position too. But I kind of like him low-key as a good sleeper in IDP. I was getting ready to pick him in the next-to-last round yesterday or two days ago, and somebody took him right in front of me. I was very disappointed.
Starting point is 01:01:38 Oh, another guy. I think maybe Dave – somebody took him. Aziz Alshire. I took him. When this guy played for the Niners, when he was coming in for an injured player, he was like a superstar. Now he's on the Titans. I might have taken him a little too early.
Starting point is 01:01:52 Where did I get him? You didn't take him early. You're good. I don't know if there is such a thing as too early in an IDP league when you get to the double-digit rounds. I took him in round 12. One spot ahead of trailing burks there you go exciting uh make sure you keep chris jones name close by that's another
Starting point is 01:02:13 d lineman assuming that he gets back to kansas city soon oh what about um he wouldn't be a sleeper but just because of the holdout maybe he he is. Well, just a couple more. Jordan Brooks is coming back from a torn ACL for Seattle. He's a star, basically, when he's healthy. And apparently he's going to be ready for week one. And Shaq Leonard for the Colts, who at one point was the best linebacker in football, arguably, and dealt with so many injuries last year. So who do you take first? You know,
Starting point is 01:02:46 Brooks or Shaq Leonard, Leonard, Leonard. Okay. It's Leonard is, is Leonard a star right now? Is he being drafted that way? Let's see.
Starting point is 01:02:57 Where'd he go? I would say he's more, he has the star upside, but he comes with significant risk. He went in round 11. Round 11, Gary Davenport, who's the godfather of IDP, took him. So usually when Gary takes somebody, that's a good sign. Yep.
Starting point is 01:03:16 He took him right after I took Bobby O'Kara, so that made me feel bad about that. I got another one. Quay Walker in Green Bay was someone that I had on my queue. Somebody else got him in our draft. The results will be up on CBS Sports. You'll see a ton of names at linebacker, D-line, and DB. A couple quick shout-outs here.
Starting point is 01:03:35 We have a big thank you to Spillage Village for donating $200 to St. Jude. Awesome stuff. And we have a question from the audience, someone who donated $10 from Eric. 12-team PPR, shallow league, two receivers, one flex. I have pick
Starting point is 01:03:52 103, and he thinks it'll be Jamar Chase there, but would you trade down to six to get either Bijan or Kelsey and a higher second-round pick, or stay put at three and get Chase? If you can get a really good move up in exchange to go from three to six,
Starting point is 01:04:10 then I would do it. So you're getting a second. When you say a higher second, if you're getting a second in addition to that, I love it. If all you're doing is trading spots in the first and the second, then I don't love it.
Starting point is 01:04:25 I don't hate it if you're doing is trading spots in the first and the second, then I don't love it. I don't hate it if you're a fan of that group of Devontae, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Waddle. One of those three will almost certainly be there if you make that swap. Waddle might still be there if you don't. Maybe the answer is, how do you feel about Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor? If you like them a lot in round two or three, then stay at the three spot.
Starting point is 01:04:47 Cause I don't know that they're coming back to you at six in the third round. Also, I'm not sure if you're completely swapping the whole draft board. I'm not sure. I'm sorry, Eric. Hope we, I don't,
Starting point is 01:04:58 I think I confused you disregard what I said. And just listen, I would draft tomorrow. Chase by draft tomorrow. Chase works for me. Never a bad strategy. We'll talk to you tomorrow. I'm going And just listen. I would draft Jamar Chase. Bye. Draft Jamar Chase works for me. Never a bad strategy. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Tennessee Football Today.

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