Fantasy Football Today - Awesome Stats and Player Props! (01/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Wild card round, playoff props, and stats to know right now on Fantasy Football Today in 5. What's going on? Who's ready for the NFL playoffs? Welcome to the show. Adam Azer and Jacob Gibbs here on Fantasy Football Today in 5, a podcast that gets you caught up fast on the fantasy news and advice you need to know. Follow us and stream us on Spotify. And Jacob might be talking me out of Tom Brady today, might be talking me into Chase Claypool. We will find out. Let's start, though, with the Bills and the Colts in the Buffalo passing game.

Starting point is 00:00:30 It's going to be another huge game for Josh Allen. What do you got, Jacob? So it definitely could be. But I am a little bit worried about Josh Allen in this spot. He's made tremendous strides in many areas. In 2020, he's improved his downfield accuracy. He's been much better when under pressure. And he's generally just not someone that I like to bet against at this point but he had a pretty

Starting point is 00:00:49 rough season when it comes to his ability to read zone schemes which is something we've seen from him in every season to this point in his career his three percent interception rate against zone is tied for 30th in the NFL and his splits are up across the board and facing man coverage I bring this up because the Colts use man coverage at the fifth lowest rate in the NFL, and his splits are up across the board when facing man coverage. I bring this up because the Colts use man coverage at the fifth lowest rate in the NFL. This doesn't just affect Allen either. If you look at the Bills' target distribution when facing man or zone coverage, it's clear that his perimeter wideouts, Stephon Diggs and John Brown specifically, have fared much better against man coverage. Brown has been targeted on 22% of his routes versus man coverage, which is all the way

Starting point is 00:01:25 down to 12.6% versus zone. And his yards per route run rate drops from 2.48 versus man all the way down to 1.05 versus zone. And it's been the same thing for Stephon Diggs. His 33% target per route run rate versus man coverage is the fourth highest mark in the NFL, but it drops all the way down to 22.5% versus zone. And his yards per route run is cut in half, down from 3.6 all the way to 1.86 per zone. So then who stands to get the targets in the production? I think Cole Beasley. And of course, he is questionable going into this game.

Starting point is 00:01:58 But I think that's who we've seen traditionally dominate the target share against zone for Buffalo. He leads all those players with a 25% target per route run rate for zone, which is up from 18.8% against man is 2.64 yards per route. Run rate for zone is not only way up from his, his rate against man, but it's the highest mark of any receiver with at least 50 targets versus zone coverage this season. So I think Beasley, if he plays definitely, could have a big game in this spot.

Starting point is 00:02:24 Yeah. And look, if he doesn't play, then, then who knows, it could change things so much. It could just mean more targets out of necessity for digs and for Brown. But you know, if he does play, keep all these numbers in mind. I only have a player prop from William Hill for, um, for Stefan digs and it's 91 and a half receiving yards. I think I would try to wait and see what the status is going to be for Beasley because if he's out, I think Diggs probably pushes over that. But if Beasley plays, I would definitely take the under on that. All right, let's talk about the Steelers wide receivers. And what do you think they're against the Browns? So I am really excited for Chase Claypool in this spot. Just real quick, here's the percentage of the dropbacks on which Chase Claypool ran a route per week by week from week 13 through 16. It's 43%, 58%,

Starting point is 00:03:11 69%, and then 86% week 16. And I bring this up because Claypool specifically, when you look at his per route run rates has some of the NFL's best numbers in 2020. And the Steelers said that they were intentionally limiting his, his playing time to avoid the rookie ball. And I think we're going to see him unleashed a lot closer to that 80, 90% route run rate, which is really exciting in this spot. He, he led the Steelers, um, with a two yards per route run compared to just 1.76 for Deontay Johnson, 1.3 for Juju Smith Schuster.

Starting point is 00:03:44 He was also 14th among qualified receivers and targets per outrun and was second in area yards per outrun behind only Calvin Ridley. All in all, he finished ninth in fantasy points per outrun at the wide receiver position. So he did all this this season. He had this great rookie campaign, caught 11 touchdowns, averaged 14 drafting points, while running around on just 65% of the dropbacks. And if we're expecting him to run around on on just 65% of the dropbacks. And if we're expecting him to run around on, you know, 80, 90% of the dropbacks in this

Starting point is 00:04:08 spot against a Browns defense that is not great against the past or 25th in DVO against the past, I think it really stands out as probably the best per dollar value at the wide receiver position this week. And he just had a hundred yards and a touchdown against them in week 17. And, uh, they have struggled against wide receivers. Okay, so you are making me do another DFS lineup now, and I'm putting Chase Claypool in. I don't have any player props for him, but he's going to be in one of my lineups.

Starting point is 00:04:33 Finally, I want to talk about Tom Brady and what he could face again. You're going to talk me out of Tom Brady, who I do have as my quarterback in one of my FanDuel lineups, but tell me why I maybe shouldn't go that route with Tom Brady. Yeah. So I think this one will really surprise people. Over the past two seasons among qualified quarterbacks, no one has a worse completion rate when under pressure than Tom Brady at 39.5%. And against a Washington front seven, that's among the best in the NFL. There's seventh in pressure rate, sixth in opponent adjusted sack rate.

Starting point is 00:05:09 I think that this really could be a spot where we see Brady pressured quite a bit. He really hasn't had to deal with pressure much this season. His 24.4% under pressure rate is the fourth lowest mark among 29 qualified quarterbacks. But I think that has more to do with Tampa's soft schedule than his offensive line necessarily. Somehow the Bucs have only faced three opponents who ranked in the top 10 in adjusted sack rate in 2020. And in those games, Brady was under pressure on 37% of his dropbacks, which is a huge leap from what we saw in the rest of the games. He averaged just 205 yards passing in those games. So if Washington is able to regularly put pressure on Brady in this spot,

Starting point is 00:05:45 it could mean fewer opportunities for his downfield weapons. And it could just mean a disappointing game in general for the passing attack here. It's definitely upside. I mean, Tampa has a 26 point play team total, but when you combine the pressure concerns with the fact that the Bucks are eight point favorites could go super run heavy.

Starting point is 00:06:02 If Washington can't put points on the board, there's a lot of risk. There's a lot of risk. There's a lot of risk attached to Brady in this pass catcher in this spot. 292.5 passing yards for Brady. I think I would definitely go under on that. All righty. Thanks a lot to Jacob Gibbs.

Starting point is 00:06:15 Hope this was helpful for you all. This is going to be in the Fantasy Football Today in 5 and the regular Fantasy Football Today feed. So enjoy it. Enjoy the games. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday.

Fantasy Football Today - Awesome Stats and Player Props! (01/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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