Fantasy Football Today - Awesome Stats and Player Props! (1/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Oh, baby, it's the divisional playoff round. Today, we're giving you advanced stats to help you dominate DFS and player props, including a reason to go all in on Travis Kelsey. Welcome, everybody. Today's Friday, January 15th. You're listening to Fantasy Football Today in 5. You can follow and stream us on Spotify. I'm Dave Richard.

Starting point is 00:00:22 I'm joined by Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline. Three stats, three props. Let's get into it. Stat number one is about Alvin Kamara, the Saints passing game. Kamara's receiving line is set at 35 and a half yards on William Hill. Jacob, how do you feel about that one? I love that. Yeah, I think there's a ton of value there. I think you smashed the over on that. The Bucs have a great defense, but I think a lot of the blitz packages that they use to frustrate opposing offenses this year is they're not necessarily going to be effective against Drew Brees. And we saw that during the regular season too. And it's backed up by the fact that New Orleans has the second highest implied team total of any team in action this

Starting point is 00:00:53 week at 27 and a half points. So the Bucs rank second in pressure rate and fifth in blitz rate in 2020. And the defensive scheme just naturally is the shorter passing. Their opponents 7.1 yard average depth of target was the third lowest in the NFL. Only the Jets, Patriots, Jaguars, and Texans allowed a higher completion percentage on passes that traveled 10 air yards or less. So they really don't care if you beat them with a short yardage game. That's kind of what their defense forces offenses to do. So if you have a quarterback who can read the blitz, could get the ball out quickly, he has a chance against this defense. And even better, if his offense has the short air yardage after the catch type receivers for him to dump to, And I'm sure by now you've realized that we're just

Starting point is 00:01:27 describing the Saints offense right now. Yeah. The only quarterback with a better passer rating than Drew Brees when blitzed in 2020 was Patrick Mahomes. The blitz is not going to work on him. And the player who Brees relied most heavily upon when blitzed was Alvin Kamara. Only Devante Adams and Darren Waller were targeted at a higher rate when their quarterback was blitzed in 2020. And then on top of that, the Bucs saw the second most opponent RB targets per game in 2020 and no team allowed RB catches at a higher rate. So it really just all adds up to a big game for Kamara, especially as a receiving option. And simpler stats, he's had at least five catches against Tampa Bay in eight career matchups, including five catches in each of the two previous matchups this season. I like that line. I think that that's good. Stat number two about the Ravens

Starting point is 00:02:08 rushing attack. So on William Hill, Lamar Jackson's line is 74 and a half rushing yards. J.K. Dobbins, his rushing line is 60 and a half yards. We looking at overs or unders for those, Jacob? I think you could go over on each of those. It's a little bit risky with Dobbins, but yeah, that's a lot more simple. The Bills allowed the sixth most yards before contact per rush in 2020 in the face of Ravens offense that leads the entire NFL in yards before contact by a wide margin. Only Kyler Murray had a higher opponent adjusted yards before contact rate than Lamar Jackson in 2020, and J.K. Dobbins led all running backs in that metric.

Starting point is 00:02:40 So it's not about schedule. That's opponent adjusted. They're just great. Their offensive line is great at creating yards before the defense gets there. And that's something the Bills have struggled with all year. Dobbins did only play 50% of the snaps last week, saw only nine carries.

Starting point is 00:02:52 The guy said where it's eight. So he's not somebody I would use in anything but like large field tournaments. And his line is a little bit risky. But if looking for upside, especially in DFS, I think both Dobbins and Lamar stand out as guys that could go a little bit under-owned. Jackson's over is one of my favorite props of the week. 80 plus rushing

Starting point is 00:03:08 yards from him in five of his past six games. The Ravens have just basically let him loose. Now I know that Travis Kelsey is going to be popular in DFS and everybody's interested in figuring they're probably leaning toward taking the over no matter what the prop is when it comes to Travis Kelsey. Are you loving his lines? You can snag him at seven and a half receptions, 89 and a half yards. Where's your head at here? I like the over on both of those. And I like him in DFS quite a bit as well.

Starting point is 00:03:32 People don't need us to tell them, you know, play Travis Kelsey this week. Chiefs are implied for 34 points against the Browns. It's a full touchdown higher than the next closest mark this weekend. So people don't need us to tell them to play Travis Kelsey, but just in case you were considering fading him at DFS, here's why I think you should not. Browns are one of just seven teams

Starting point is 00:03:49 that use zone coverage over 70% of the time in 2020, which just naturally results in more targets for tight ends and running backs. And that's definitely held true for the Chiefs this year. Tyree Kill and Kelsey both had a 23% target per route run rate versus man coverage in 2020, but Kelsey's rate rose to 26% while Hills fell to 22%. Not only did he outproduce Hill when facing zone coverage, he actually led all qualified pass catchers in the NFL in yards per route run versus zone coverage. The Chiefs only faced two teams that use zone coverage at least 70% of the

Starting point is 00:04:17 time this season, but in those games, Kelsey averaged 13 targets and 125 receiving yards. So yeah, definitely smash the over on those props against Cleveland. Jacob, great, great stuff. Thank you so much for that. And thank you for listening to Fantasy Football Today in 5, your audio outlet for fantasy news and advice in five minutes or fewer. If you enjoyed the pod, be sure to follow on Spotify or subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts.

Fantasy Football Today - Awesome Stats and Player Props! (1/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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