Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 Baker Mayfield to the Panthers! D.J. Moore Top 12? (07/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 6, 2022

Vote for us for Best Sports Podcast and Best Male-Hosted Podcast! http://podcastawards.com/app/signup/ The Panthers have acquired Baker Mayfield! Does this vault D.J. Moore into the Top 12? Well, actually does it vault him into the Top 5!? Does it change Christian McCaffrey's value at all? And will the Panthers make the playoffs? Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. The Carolina Panthers have not thrown more than 17 touchdown passes in any of the last three seasons. Get ready for at least 18 touchdown passes this year. Baker Mayfield is here to save DJ Moore's fantasy value, to boost DJ Moore's fantasy value. Fingers crossed. Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers.

Woo! All right. Adam Azer, Heath Cummings, Jamie Eisenberg. Give me a big, sexy reaction, Heath Cummings. DJ Moore is my number six wide receiver. He should draft me in the second round ahead of Debo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb. Whoa, I didn't know you were getting that sexy. Wow.

Take it off. Jamie, I didn't know you were getting that sexy. Wow, take it off. Jamie, give me some reaction here. Yeah, I didn't expect to be the high guy on DJ Moore, but I'm not going to be the high guy if that's where you're taking him. But he's now a third-round receiver if he wasn't already and should be considered a top-ten guy in PPR. Nine-and-a-half PPR is going to be the interesting formats for him because of the touchdowns, and hopefully that changes.

But you've got to be a little bit more excited about DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey, for that matter, because of the hopeful, hopeful upgrade in quarterback right now. Okay, very interesting. So really, number six, Heath? Number six, yeah. Listen, that might be a little bit high, but I don't know that we can overstate how bad DJ Moore's quarterback play. Now, Teddy Bridgewater did some things between the 20s that are very similar to. Baker Mayfield has actually been slightly above league average in that regard last year in an abysmal worst year of his career when he played 14 games and was hurt for half of them. He threw 17 touchdowns.

I think they probably throw 10 more touchdown passes this year. And as Jamie always makes the good point, DJ Moore's always had a high percentage of his teams receiving touchdowns. He just didn't score very many because the Panthers never threw. Wait a second. I, you did it again. No, that's Adam.

Yes. Very good. Very, very clever. Let me ask, let me ask you a question. This was Jarvis Landry's best year with Baker Mayfield in, in 2019,

138 targets, 83 catches, 1174 yards and six touchdowns. You know what DJ Moore did that exact same season? 2018, he had what, 1200 yards? 135 targets, 87 catches, 1175 yards, and four touchdowns. The numbers are identical, except for a two-touchdown difference, essentially. And so the hope would be is that DJ Moore's talent

at this point in his career, better thanj moore's talent at this point in his career better than jarvis landry's at that point in his career i'm gonna guess they're probably around the same age at that point um jarvis two years ago uh or three years ago and dj more now um somebody can check that if they want to uh but in any event i don't want to get too over excited about dj more i think he might be a little too over excited about but it's not far off i mean he's still gonna be a top 10 guy for me. I do think that this helps him and hopefully pushes him to the next level. I think also that year, Jamie, 2019?

I'll look right now. I think Odell Beckham was also a 1,000-yard receiver that year. So I know Baker Mayfield at one point has given us 2,000-yard receivers. And DJ Moore is going to, you would think, dominate targets more than, yeah. So he had Landry at 1,174 yards and Beckham at 1,035 yards, and they both had over 130 targets.

So, yeah, I mean, really, that was a lot more competition than what DJ Moore is going to deal with. I did just look it up. That was Jarvis Landry's age 27 season. DJ Moore somehow just turned 25. Crazy. Okay, so by putting him

sixth, Heath, you're also, I'm assuming, putting him, I know you're putting him out of a studio, Lamb. You're a little lower on Lamb, but Mike Evans, Keenan Allen? I've got Moore, Allen, Evans. Wow. All right. That's bold, baby. That's sexy. Wow. All right. That's bold, baby. That's sexy.

You want it sexy. He gave it to you. That is really like, holy cows, that's sexy. So I'm about to put an NC-17 rating on this episode. So what about Jamie for you? McCaffrey's number one for you then, though, right? In the projections, McCaffrey is number one. I think it's a risk decision that you should make.

I think Christian McCaffrey is probably more likely to get hurt than Jonathan Taylor, but Christian McCaffrey has more upside than Jonathan Taylor, too. So you have to make that decision. But I have McCaffrey one in the projections. I'm not sure who I'm going to settle on in the rankings. What about for you, Jamie? DJ Moore compared to T. Higgins, Michael Pittman,

guys that might go mid-round three after A.J. Brown, after Evans, after Keenan Allen? Where's Moore in that group? When I get to my rankings following this podcast, he will be ahead of Tyreek Hill. He will be ahead of A.J. Brown.

He will be right behind the two guys that you mentioned in terms of Keenan Allen and Mike Evans. Like I said, he's not far from me, but I'm not drafting him in round two, but I also wasn't drafting Deebo Samuel in round two. I love the upside. Again,

you're looking at a guy that's been hovering around 90 catches, hovering around 1,200 yards receiving, four touchdowns. If he gets somewhere bumps in those numbers, which I 1,200 yards receiving, four touchdowns. You know, if he gets somewhere, bumps in those numbers, which I think he's capable of. You know, I think you've heard me say this a lot prior to the trade

of Stephon Diggs going to Buffalo, and then DJ Moore's kind of, you know, taking that mantle of, was he going to be the receiver that we never see his stats matches play? I don't know if this is the quarterback that helps him right get that but it's closer to it certainly i mean sam darnold basically gives you no chance to have success and that you know it's just an unfortunate situation baker gives you if he's right a chance to have success it's it's it's a slight upgrade with the chance to be a very big upgrade yeah and i think like even looking at last year, we saw more target-wise, almost earned 10 targets per game, 163 targets over 17 games. His yards per target collapsed 7.1 last year. That was a yard and a half worse than he had ever been before. A yard and a half worse than his second worst year and now his career average. If he's in that eight and a half target range and earning 150 targets

and scoring at even six touchdowns, he's definitely a top 10 wide receiver. It's just whether he can get that seventh or eighth, whether he can get to 100 catches. Okay, quick counterpoint. Baker Mayfield has never thrown for 4,000 yards. He's never even thrown for 4,000 yards. He's never even thrown for 3,900 yards. Yeah, I've got him at 4,100, I think. But he's never played 17 games.

No, but he played 16 games twice and didn't have 3,900 yards. He also set the rookie record prior to Justin Herbert breaking it of 27 touchdowns in his rookie season. He did. Yeah. This is the number one overall pick you know it's

not not to hang your hat on those things obviously donald was a top five pick he's an upgrade no question but he's not well let's let's let's try it this way adam seven four thousand yards over 17 games is 235 yards per game he averaged 266 in his rookie year and 239 in his second year. So twice, he's been over that on a per-game basis. 4,000 yards is really, for me, more of a 16-game measuring stick, honestly. In his 16-game seasons, he did not throw for 4,000 yards. I do not have minus 16-game pace for 4,000 yards. Again, I know where you're going with it, Adam, and certainly that matters. Derek Carr started his career with how many straight seasons of not going over 4,000 yards,

and Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree had certainly some big seasons with their quarterback not being successful, which is one example. DJ Moore doesn't need Baker Mayfield to be a 5,000-yard passer to return value on this. I mean, Deebo Samuel was a 1,400-yard receiver last year. Was Jimmy Garoppolo a 1,400-yard receiver last year. Was Jimmy Garoppolo a 1,400-yard receiver last year? Was Jimmy Garoppolo a 4,000-yard passer? Maybe in 17 games, maybe. I don't know.

Well, he missed games, so I doubt he was. 3,800 in 15 games, so he certainly would have been over 4,000. No, that's a good point. If DJ Moore comes close to 1,400 yards based on the receptions that he should have have and let's just say he gets to six touchdowns he's gonna be a top 10 receiver six touchdowns top 10 if he's if if he's getting the same targets and he's at 1400 yards based on just the numbers that he's been averaging i mean that's a hundred catch guy yeah yeah i've got a 97 1402 and seven touchdowns um if i took one touchdown away he would still be uh like seventh or eighth okay so i think uh you know you get to that two three turn and you start looking at mike evans keenan allen the aj brown jamie you just said you're

gonna put him ahead of tyree hill you're gonna put him ahead of Tyree Hill. You're going to put him ahead of A.J. Brown. Why are both of you putting him over A.J. Brown? For me, it's the reception total. You know, I think Brown will score more touchdowns and might have a bigger ceiling. But I think, you know, D.J. Moore's reception total, like this is just a PPR argument. You know, he's going to challenge for a hundred catches. If things go right. I don't see AJ Brown probably topping 80 to 85.

Give me half PPR then AJ Brown or DJ more. Brown. I think I'll still have more higher, but I've got them projected for more yards. There's still also like AJ Brown comes with, they've both got risk, but AJ Brown comes with the risk that he's not been able to be the player that we think he can be over a full season

yet. Give me your thoughts on Christian McCaffrey. Does this change anything for him? I think the most catches for a Browns running back in the Mayfield era is 47, I believe. Now, of course,

Kareem Hunt in 2019 had 37 catches in only eight games. But yeah, 47 is the most for a running back in the Baker Mayfield Browns era. Does this change anything? No. It gives him more upside. I think the thing with McCaffrey is still the same.

He get 13 plus games from Christian McCaffrey. He's probably going to be the number one running back. He's probably going to be the number one per game. He's played 10 games the last two years. You know, that's, that's the question you have to ask yourself. Is he going to stay healthy?

If you feel comfortable with that, you know, and, and again, I, I perfectly understand how hypocritical I sound that I still have Jonathan Taylor ranked ahead of McCaffrey, even though McCaffrey and Heath said the same thing. We can see where the ceiling is for him.

You've seen two years of over 29 PPR points per game. One was a three-game sample size. But of the five games that he started and finished last year, to Azar stat the crap out of this again, of the five games that he started and finished, four of those, 24 or more PPR points. The upside is there. Nobody does what that guy does and mayfield should hopefully enhance that once again okay and i think cam newton did not have a good track record of throwing

to running backs and then christian mcafree caught 116 passes in 2019 yeah mcafree does just completely obliterates that past throwing to running backs thing. All right, how about Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall, guys? Are they on your radar now? Well, Robbie wasn't thrilled, I think, about this move happening when it was being rumored. Right. So is he going to retire?

I just traded Terrace Marshall in the Dynasty League that Heath and I are in to Dan Schneier, and I have a little remorse. Now there's a chance for him to... I always thought there was a chance for him anyway, but there's a chance for him now to be better, especially if Robbie does miss any time or leaves. But these are two good dart throws later.

Obviously, you take a chance on Robbie first. And maybe a chance on Robbie first. And maybe a chance for Tommy Trimble. Ben McAdoo's offense has featured the tight end in the past. Baker Mayfield has looked towards them in the red zone. Their tight ends, or Ian Thomas, whoever is the best tight end for the Panthers, could have some real late round appeal.

Any dynasty changes, other than DJ Moore, any major dynasty changes? And where are you going to put Moore in your dynasty rankings? He was already top 12, so he'll probably be 6th or so. 7th or 8th, maybe. Low-end top 10 wide receiver. And Trimble and Marshall are both guys you just make sure are stashed. Okay. You know, I think people in the fantasy community,

it's very funny, I just got a notification that it's my draft pick, even though I don't own a team in the Dynasty League. Must be Jamie's draft pick. DJ Moore is a guy that I think fantasy analysts think is so good. And now, Mayfield is a good enough quarterback, I think, where now we have to put our money where our mouth is.

First off, DJ Moore is a wide receiver who has been so good. Since the start of 2019, there are four players in all of football who have more receiving yards than DJ Moore. They are Devontae Adams, Cooper Cupps, Stephon Diggs, and Travis Kelsey. DJ Moore is fifth over that time period

with over 3,500 receiving yards over the last three seasons. I'm out. He actually did have to go. So that was a terrific... Adam, we're going to get our guy. Mic drop. Okay. So it's time to see if we're right about DJ Moore

and all he needs is a better quarterback. Jamie, a final question for you. Are the Panthers going to make the playoffs? I was having that conversation with a few NFL media people when the trade happened. And first question was that we were discussing, are they now better than the Saints?

I would say no. They're not better than the Bucs. So you just look at their division, right? Yeah. So I don't think they're better than the Saints, but they're certainly closer. But they could be, right? That's not a definitive one.

This is a very solid roster. They have a very good defensive line. They've tried to rebuild their secondary. The offense, I mean, you think about it. If Baker is what he was two years ago when he got the Browns to, you know, within a play of essentially going to the AFC Championship game,

if he's that guy again and McCaffrey's healthy you have a legit player at the wide receiver position as we just discussed you have one of the best players overall in football McCaffrey and you have a better quarterback with a defense that's on the rise and so when you look at the NFC

and you look at the playoff contenders you have the Rams you have the Bucks the Packers the 49ers the Cardinals Vikings Eagles Giants contenders. You have the Rams, you have the Bucks, the Packers, the 49ers, the Cardinals, Vikings, Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, I would say. I'm probably missing one there. And I'll put the Saints in that category as well. Washington has a chance, I think. I think Washington has a chance. I think the Panthers now have a chance. This is going to sound funny, but I think the Lions actually have a chance.

This is a team that's rebuilt themselves. Their defense can bounce back. Really, the teams that you look at and say they don't have a chance, to be honest with you, are the Seahawks right now because of their quarterback situation and the Falcons. And the Giants.

And the Bears. No, I don't agree with the Bears. I think the bears i think it's a long shot you need you need justin fields to be awesome you need justin fields to be awesome you need daniel jones to be awesome and you probably need baker mayfield to be awesome you know and that's where it comes down to you know how good can these quarterbacks push these teams over the top hey so panthers now put themselves in position to be one of the better teams of football see this is this is look at this better excuse me better better than they were not better this is this comment here

from Terminated Account, which is a funny name in YouTube. You have to be extremely naive to think that DJ Moore is going to perform better with Baker Mayfield

having seen Landry and Odell Beckham underperform with him year after year. I mean, there's something to that, right? There's something to that,

but give me your take on that. It's fair. Beckham was a shell of himself and battled injuries, and Landry is a different kind of receiver than DJ Moore. But it's valid. You had still Beckham, as he showed last year, with better quarterback play,

he was pretty productive with Matthew Stafford and the Rams and looked like he was building toward getting back to that level. And we'll see what Landry has left, changing quarterbacks and going to a different situation. But I think you also have to factor in the scenarios. The Browns were so run heavy with that team. And I think you've got to hope, and again, it's a hope, which Baker shows up.

Is it the Baker that you know i i said this about ezekiel ellie yesterday you know is always he's playing through an injury but when he was playing well we didn't really focus on the injury so much you know baker was playing through some significant injuries but he was still out there playing and so you have to take that into account you can't either stat those and so i think you know know, hopefully DJ Moore gets the best of Baker Mayfield, but it doesn't necessarily have to be Baker Mayfield being the best of himself or even a superstar quarterback. He just has to be a little bit better than Sam Darnold. And that's going to be a pretty good receiver at a DJ Moore. Not just that, but he's going to throw, they're going to throw more

than 17 touchdowns. You know, Hopefully they throw somewhere around 25 touchdowns. The other thing you're missing in this Beckham-Landry thing is they had each other. And when one of them was out, the other one was a lot better. There were those terrible weather games that Cleveland had, but the last five games of the 2020 season, Jarvis Landry was on pace for almost 1,200 yards in 16 games. That was pace so that's the thing about DJ Moore he's such a target hog and last year he was a green zone target hog if you didn't hear the show that we did earlier today he had 35 percent of his team's green zone targets that's targets inside the 10 yard line there were only four players in football at a higher percentage of their team's green zone targets uh so, you know, he's just the alpha.

There's no question about it. And there's one. Oh, and this last comment here is a good one. But again, have to disagree. The only thing I'll say is Baker is going to be playing with a terrible offensive line. He's one of the worst under pressure quarterbacks. They just upgraded in a big way. They upgraded the entire offseason. They have one of the most upgraded offensive lines in theory. They signed

Baltimore center, Bradley Bozeman. They signed Rams guard, Austin Corbett, and they drafted Iki Ikuonu sixth or seventh, seventh overall, I think. So I think six, whatever it was. This offensive line is much different than it was last year. Can't guarantee it's going to be better, but I don't think it's going to be any worse. All right, Jamie, thank you very much for your time. Hope everybody enjoyed this bonus pod. Appreciate all the feedback. Would love to hear it if you want to email fantasyfootball at cbsi.com.

That's the letter I, fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Love to hear your thoughts on DJ Moore, on McCaffrey, on Baker Mayfield, etc. And we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.