Fantasy Football Today - Best and Worst ADP Values; Expert Injury Analysis (08/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 22, 2024

Want to be in our next mock draft and have a shot at being on air? Check out our St. Jude Draft-a-Thon Store here: https://tiltify.com/@fftfundraising/fantasy-football-today-draftathon-2024 Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts As you get ready for your drafts, who are some of the best and worst values? Before we get to that, we'll look at some recent draft trends (3:30) including the elite running backs being drafted ahead of CeeDee Lamb, the latest draft values for Malik Nabers and Rashee Rice (5:30) and Anthony Richardson's value ... News and notes (8:40) as Bo Nix has been named the starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson is sore and we've got a lot of RB injury updates. Then we'll talk about the best ADP values (18:15)! Javonte Williams, Jameson Williams, Rico Dowdle, Jaleel McLaughlin, Josh Palmer and more ... Worst ADP values (35:15) which sparks another Saquon Barkley debate, and then we hear from our injury expert Marty Jaramillo (41:00). Marty tells us what to expect from Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Puka Nacua and more ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. I am loving today's show, Heath. We got to go.

I am going to SNL this. We got a today's show, Heath. We gotta go. I am gonna SNL this. We got a great show for you tonight. I was gonna say, I have absolutely no idea what you mean. I'm super excited for the show as well. Well, we got an injury. We got our sports injury analyst, Marty Jaramillo, joining us later.

We're gonna ask him about three top 15 players. Christian McCaffrey, Jameer Gibbs, Pukunakua, and more. Get some injury updates and what we can expect, maybe in terms of re-injury or whatnot. I have some very important announcements to make. And we have, of all the draft-a-thon items, maybe the most appealing one. A chance to draft with 11 industry experts. Not me.

Dave Jamie Heath and eight others others like the footballers, Jake Seeley, Nando Dufino, Scott Fish, a chance to draft with all of them, but it's tomorrow. So there's some urgency there. So I will tell you about that a little bit later, but everything is available at tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024. And I'm guessing this one's going to be in the auction house section of it. So again, I'll tell you about that later. But first, please, this might be your last chance, and I don't know what to do. I've tried so hard to coordinate 12 different FFT open leagues. I've got two people who have not accepted their invite and who have ignored all of my emails. It is time to get in your league. Bill Wall in the John Breach League.

Brendan Gobert in the Frank Stamfel League. If you are you, respond to me. I keep emailing you. If you aren't seeing my emails, you can send an email to fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. That is the letter I. I need you to join these leagues, guys. Please, we've got to get these drafts started. Again, Bill Wall, Brendan Gobert,

Brendan in the Frank League, Bill in the John League. I know your email addresses, so if anybody tries to scam me, I'll be able to verify who it is. I need you to reach out to me. Okay, Heath, FFT Open is underway. I am in round six already in my league.

How about you? I am in round two. We had a little bit of a delay that was my fault because I was not sending emails to people when they were on the clock. I paused the draft. I fixed that. I am five picks away, so I'm sure everybody who's in my division

is right here in the YouTube chat right now. If you guys want to go ahead and make four picks, then I will make my two, three turn picks on air in the fft open but we just had derrick henry go 19th overall a team named danny dimes took puka right before that oh hey another team named you may kiss mcbride oh nice yeah uh derrick henry went 33rd over in my league to a team named Dan with three exclamation points. And Jamie's here.

Jamie's just started his draft this morning. Christian McCaffrey was the first pick. But I want to look at a few trends. I am seeing in the FFT Open, three running backs with the first five picks is kind of in vogue right now, Jamie. Maybe some jitters. This is a PPR league, and it's only two receivers,

so I will say that. But maybe some jitters with the early receivers, with the holdouts and the injuries and all that. Three running backs in the first five picks should be what's happening. I mean, when you talk about, like you said, where these guys are right now. So we may see three in the first four picks

pretty soon you know if lamb continues to hold out and falls so i've certainly made the adjustment and i and i know i was the kind of take receiver you know two through six right two through six um after mcafree and uh it's just it just makes more sense to take those two running by especially when you start to um bump up the value of some of the receivers at the back end around two we um we had three running backs taken in the first three picks and my fft open division and i did like we've been saying i think for a week now adam maybe both of us like next week i'm gonna drop cd Lamb and Jamar Chase a little bit. It was today for me. Not a lot. Lamb's now my wide receiver, too.

I finally moved him behind Tyreek, probably caught up to everyone else. And Jamar Chase is down to wide receiver six and pick eight. Okay. So behind A.J. Brown? Yeah. No. Wait. Sorry.

Did I have that wrong? All right. Wide receiver six. Okay. So it's for Tyreek. Six. No, six. So it was pick nine. You're right. Behind A.J, sorry. Did I have that wrong? All right. Wide receiver six. Okay. So it's for Tyreek. Six. No, six. So it was pick nine.

You're right. Behind A.J. Brown. I had A.J. Brown in that same tier just at the end of it. Then I moved Jefferson behind him and now I've moved Chase behind him. Okay. Fair enough. And by the way, that means that we're not too concerned about Tyreek Hill's hand injury, which seems to be very minor.

Okay. What else? I want to track Rasheed Rice and Malik Neighbors in several of the FFT Open divisions and recent NFC ADP and an ESPN PPR mock draft that came out with some of their experts. Malik Neighbors in my division went 24th, and Rasheed Rice went 37th. They went back-to-back in Dan Schneier's division in round four,

so they were like around 40th overall. So far, 33 picks in the Will Brinson division. No Rasheed Rice or Malik Nabors. In Thomas Schaefer's division, they're at the 43rd pick right now. Nabors just went 41st. And Rasheed Rice has not been picked yet. In ESPN's PPR mock draft 10 team, Neighbors went 25th and Rasheed Rice went 71st.

Holy moly. And NFC drafts over the last three days, 30 drafts. Neighbors is wide receiver 19. Rasheed Rice is wide receiver 25. So I wish I could tell you where to expect these guys to go, but I have no idea.

No idea. Yeah, yeah. When's the earliest you would take neighbors or rice? Neighbors would be the end of round three. Rice would be middle of round four. I've got rice at the end of round three and neighbors in round six. Right. Okay. And then I just want to mention in the espn mock draft adam schefter took anthony richardson as qb1 i'm pretty sure it's a four-point league but how about that he went one pick ahead of jalen hertz went 33rd overall where are you guys at all bothered by this this you know it is circulated now that anthony richardson had a pretty bad practice and his

receivers weren't getting open josh down's not playing. And the Bengals cornerbacks were like, what is what is happening here? This guy, he doesn't see his receivers. He's just going to run all the time. Like, are you concerned at all about the preseason and training camp for Anthony Richardson? No. And look, I don't mind that he runs like that's not a bad thing. I forget. I think it was Ryan Kelly maybe was interviewed in The Athletic about this. And he said we didn't spend any time game planning for them. So that's part of it, I think.

Anytime you just kind of walk out on the field, the defense should have an advantage over the offense more times. And that's what you see in the early part of most training camps. Anyway, it's not encouraging. I mean, you're watching Aaron Rodgers carve up the Giants. I don't know what's there to say about that, but you'd much rather see him have a productive practice and a productive scrimmage or whatever the case may be, but I'm not worried about it, no. I think the Bengals are just salty.

They're a trash-talking team on a mission this year. Are they talking trash about the Chiefs again or something? I don't know. I haven't heard any of that. Oh, okay, okay. Jamar Chase flat out refuses to talk about the Chiefs. Just doesn't even miss them. So listen, guys, it's time to sign up for BetMGM.

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if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code FANTASY when you sign up. I do want to tell you all about the Draftathon stuff, the opportunity to be in the Draftathon League, which is amazing. Jamie's going to tell you about that in a little bit. First, I want to go through some news and notes here. Let's talk about Bo Nix. Congratulations, Bo Nix. First Denver quarterback since John Elway to start week one as a rookie. And I probably could have said that better. His air yards per pass attempt in the preseason has been 6.1 yards. That would have ranked last in the NFL last year. Russell Wilson was 25th. I think it was like seven and a half

last year for the Broncos. But here were the bottom five in intended area yards per pass attempt last year. It's not like you can't have a good offense with low ADOTs. Joe Burrow slash Jake Browning, they were the two lowest last year.

Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Mack Jones, Kenny Pickett. But you had the Bengals, Chiefs, and Lions had the lowest intended area yards for pass attempt. But Heath, we're going to talk about best and worst values on today's show.

You had Cortland Sutton as one of your best values. Do you worry at all about the fit of Bo Nix and Cortland Sutton? I don't think it's quite as ideal as Russell Wilson, but it's probably more ideal than Russell Wilson trying to run Sean Peyton's offense. So I still think that, I mean, Sutton just seems to be so clearly the number one wide receiver and the two guys who are smallish guys who might seem to be better fits with Bo

Nix. Sean Peyton doesn't seem to want to play anyway. He just wants to play big wide receivers and throw the ball six yards downfield. I will say like to the Bo Nix point, the last three seasons of Drew Brees' career, 7-1, 6-4, and 6-1 in terms of intended air yards per pass attempt. So this sounds like Bo Nix is doing exactly what he's supposed to do. Yeah, it's interesting. That's very low, those ADOTs or area yards per pass attempt

that Heath just mentioned, especially the last two for Drew Brees. Real quick, Bo Nix or Gardner Minshew in a 2Q? Nix, because there's more certainty of him keeping the job all year. Nix. And he probably has a little more rushing upside. Nix or Celtics? Deshaun Watson has arm soreness.

Not ideal, but it happens. You getting worried, DeShazer? Of course. Look, he's a sleeper for me, but obviously I've never drafted him in a one QB league,

but I was. I started out worried. It's not great, but he might play this weekend, so this might just be nothing. He's not the first quarterback to have arm soreness in training camp.

I wonder if we get Kevin Stefansanski saying we really thought that he'd be able to play through this but he didn't i i would be shocked if they like why would you play him oh they just i feel like they have to i feel like there's a lot to gain there from he just needs the reps i feel i mean to go out there and do one drive and fall on his shoulder or something like why would you do that? But as someone who has drafted Amari Cooper in the FFT Open in the sixth fifth round, it is comforting. I don't think Jameis Winston is a great quarterback, but in terms of backup quarterbacks, you could do a lot worse than Jameis Winston. Yes, it's better than the non Joe Flacco backups that they had last year. So that's certainly a comfort. I think the thing, like I was in a draft last night was keeper draft where like people were

taking two quarterbacks very early. So I felt lucky to get Jayden Daniels and the way the keeper rounds work. Somebody got Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson as their quarterbacks. And I was like, I don't love that pairing. I'm sorry. Who was it? Jayden Daniels and Deshaun Watson. I had Jayaden Daniels.

I did not draft a backup. Somebody took Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson as their pairing, and I don't love that duo. In case you missed it, my case for Watson, he averaged a little bit more than 20 points per game in his five healthy games last year, and that's good enough to be a top 12 quarterback, borderline top 12,

and that was with him being one of the worst passers in football. Anyway, Jalen Waddell is back at practice. to be a top 12 quarterback, borderline top 12, and that was with him being one of the worst passers in football. Anyway, Jalen Waddell is back at practice. Jalen Warren's hamstring injury is not long-term. He could be back for week one. But, yeah, and just to reiterate, Tyreek Hill, very minor hand injury. We're not concerned.

Joe Mixon looks to be close to 100%, according to Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle. Cleveland running back Pierre Strong left with a rib injury. He was taken to the hospital, but it doesn't seem like that's a serious injury. The San Francisco running backs, they're pretty much all back at practice except for Christian McCaffrey. This is a big week for the Niners. McCaffrey's still

out. Ayuk and Trent Williams, they're working hard to get deals done with those guys. How about Clyde Edwards-Ziller? Thoughts out to him. Hopefully he's doing okay. He's dealing with PTSD for an incident that happened a long time ago, a while ago.

So, you know, mentally, we hope everything's okay with Clyde Edwards-Ziller. Detroit offensive tackle, Panay Sewell, one of the best in the game. He left practice with an ankle injury. I haven't seen anything on that. Dallas Goddard has an oblique injury. Haven't seen anything on that. Philadelphia Goddard has an oblique injury. Haven't seen anything on that. Philadelphia released C.J. Uzama. I know a lot of you wanted to hear Dave do Uzama.

Maybe he'll do it next time. Brock Bauer is still out with a foot injury. I love it. A.J. Dillon, Packers backup running backs. A.J. Dillon dealing with a stinger that he suffered in 2023. And Marshawn Lloyd is still out with a hamstring injury. Matt Schneidman of The Athletic, who covers the Packers, he predicted that Romeo Dobbs will get the most red zone targets for the Packers. Dallas signed Linval Joseph, a defensive tackle.

And as Jamie alluded to earlier, Aaron Rodgers whooped the Giants. Jamie, start of the week in week one, Sam Darnold or Jordan Addison? Who are you going with? Neither, but certainly interesting. I had a fun Vikings build in best ball draft last

night. All the Vikings. All right. We're going to take a break here. When we come back, we'll tell you about this amazing opportunity to join a league with fantasy experts, and we'll get into the best and worst values in fantasy drafts based on different ADPs, different websites. We'll be right back on FFT. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate?

Don't let your project become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report all right welcome back everybody to fantasy football today jamie tell us about the draft-a-thon league i know it's short notice but what an opportunity this is uh it is short notice we have a draft tomorrow at 1 30 p.m eastern um it is with myself dave heath and and what is that? Nine other experts. Excuse me, eight other analysts. And we have one spot open to join this league. So it is with some of the best fantasy analysts

in the business. And that is not a joke. I don't want to say their names because I have not gotten permission to make that public, but it is from- Oh, I already did. Huh? I already did. Oh. Well, I mean, look, you're going to talk about the league and their draft results with all their names. Didn't I say some of their names? I said some of their names earlier today.

Okay. Well, you'll get to it. So some of the bigger publications that you've certainly listened to and read and their biggest personalities are taking part in this league they've been on our draft-a-thon programming before throughout the course of the years uh one of them is a professional wrestler um so him um it's awesome it's it's absolutely awesome i will say one name because it's fine nando's part of this also uh so it's it's very cool. And obviously the donation goes to a great cause in St. Jude. And so you'll see us tweeting it, X-ing it, Twix-ing it, whatever we call it now, sending out the link.

So if you'd like to take part in it and make a donation, we would appreciate it. Okay. So what you're going to do is go to tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024 and then scroll down a bit and go to the auction house section. It says view auction house, and then you're going to see there it is. It just posted. Also, there are private Zoom calls with me, Dave, Jamie, and Heath, and there are six spots in the podcast league. Monday night we're drafting. Six spots there that you can bid on as well.

And then you can also bid on the tennis league. Monday night, we're drafting six spots there that you can bid on as well. But we want you and then you can also bid on the tennis match. We want you to absolutely crush it with this draft. I'm like, I am not even allowed in this league. It's so exclusive. The best of the best. No time for me. Get in there and hopefully I won't get sued. All right. Let's talk about best and worst values. And Heath, your best values. I'm assuming you were using cbs adp of course i was using cbs adp okay i'm gonna i try to cross-track it with some of the more recent adp in nfc uh drafts but uh what are some of your best values here yeah and so i like the very first one is you really need to do that because rashi rice adp is climbing slowly on CBS. But what you'll find in normal people drafts

is that people are still going to look at that and try to wait a little bit longer than I think they should for Rice. He's now up to 77th overall. I looked at the last week of NFC drafts. I believe he is around 45th. I still think that's a really good value in 45th. Javante Williams is 87th overall.

I'm not sure if he's climbing or not. Chris Godwin, 85th overall. And Cortland Sutton, even if he's a bad fit for Bo Nix, 119th overall at the end of round 10. I'll tell you about Rasheed Rice and his ADP. I did it just from, I think, Sunday to Wednesday or Monday to Wednesday, 30 drafts. Just wanted to see because he had a really good, encouraging preseason game. So now he's up to wide receiver 25, as I mentioned earlier, 43rd overall in NFC.

NFC is super wide receiver heavy, which is why I'm sort of trying to focus on where they are among the position because this is like so wide receiver heavy. Running backs fall a lot, but Rishi rice, it's like, it's this, it's Devante Smith, Brandon,

Iuke, Stefan digs, Rishi rice, Amari Cooper, T Higgins, a flowers right in that mix. Only one I would take ahead of him still as T Higgins. I think T Higgins is the only one of that group that I have ahead of him.

And I'm not sure that I still have T Higgins ahead of him. I don't, I would take none of those guys ahead of him still as T Higgins. I think T Higgins is the only one of that group that I have ahead of him. And I'm not sure that I still have T Higgins ahead of him. I don't, I would take none of those guys ahead of him. Okay. Additionally, uh, he's, I'm that if you said to me,

Hey, what is the best value at any position in any round in fantasy drafts this year? I'm saying round five wide receivers. What would you guys say? I mean, you, you said that quite a bit based on ADP. It's certainly is, is extremely valuable, but I just don't see that in many drafts. I do. I see it all the time. I mean, in the FFT open, it just happened. Let me tell you who went in round five of my FFT open league. It was crazy. It was, uh, George Pickens,

Michael Pittman, Devante Smith, T Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Tank Dell. Those were the first seven picks. And then later we had Stefan Diggs. Right. Somebody said it in the chat. Jamie has been best ball-brained. That is the response. Anytime I talk about any wide receivers and their ADP on Twitter,

immediately I get a bunch of people saying they're never available that late. And they're never available that late on NFC or in best ball drafts. That is true. You have to know your draft. Yeah, but ADP has round five as great value to me. Do you guys disagree with that? I don't want to keep saying that. No, for sure.

We agree with that. Okay, okay. Heath also. All right, Javante Williams. We agree with that. Okay, okay. Heath also. All right, Javante Williams. Let me see where he is among running backs right now. Javante is running back 25. All right, so he's going after Jones, Swift, Stevenson, Montgomery, Jones, Swift, Najee,

Zamir White, Javante Williams, ahead of Mostert, Pollard, Chase Brown, Spears, Jonathan Brooks, Jalen Warren, Zach Moss, Devin Singletary. So I think all the guys you said he's ahead of, I like him ahead of. I definitely like him more than Aaron Jones, who he's going by. I like him better than Zamir White. I like him better than Zamir White. I like him better than Andre Stevenson. I think there's a chance that he catches 50 to 60 passes, and I think he's going to have around 220 rush attempts. How do you feel about Javante, Jamie? Do you think that this is right,

that he deserves to be top 25 wide receiver? Or running back, pardon me. Yeah, no, I mean, I've certainly come around on him. He's 24th for me, so this is the range I would take him but you know the guys that heath has listed that's the blob that i hate you know so it's you know if you have an inkling that he's better than those guys and has the chance to outperform them then you certainly should take them ahead of you know white and stevenson and naji and joan like for me i have those other guys ahead of him just because i am still concerned that

the Broncos could be terrible. I mean, I know they've had a couple of good pieces and performances, but it could be like the Steelers from last year. You know, we're just, they're trying things that are working. And once teams start to game plan for Bo Nix and they're trailing, I mean, how much is Javante's value going to be at a, at a very high level, certainly from a touchdown standpoint, I think he's going to catch passes probably more so than we expect. Like Heath has talked about a lot. He's certainly been a touchdown standpoint. I think he's going to catch passes probably more so than we expect. Like Heath has talked about a lot.

He's certainly been a Javante supporter and stuck with him. But I do think we'll see, you know, Jaleel McLaughlin. And I do think at some point by the middle to the end of the season, we could see a little bit too much of Audrick Estime. So that's my slight, you know, drawback with, you know, putting Javante ahead of that group, but he belongs in that group for sure. I will say just what Jamie said, looking at my rankings, and I've got Javante at 18, and then there's four guys after him.

And it is definitely the they-could-be-terrible section of the running backs because Javante Williams, Tony Pollard, Zamir White, Ramondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, those five offenses might be the bottom five offenses in the NFL this year, except Devin Singletary's at 30. And that's probably the bottom offense. I think the one thing like with this group, and again, this is why tears matter. You know, if, if you feel like you need to, you know, get a second running back, you know, or when you feel like you need to get a second running back, if you don't want to dip your toe into the Bengals guys, Spears and, or Warren, depending on when he's healthy, um, Singletary, you know, that, that group of guys, which is the group that comes after these, these guys, you know, Jonathan Brooks, et cetera. Um,

then you just got to figure out which one you like the best. And at what point you want to just kind of settle for them, because I think that's kind of what you should be doing as opposed to reaching for them or targeting them yeah so like we've talked about a lot the last couple of weeks you know if you go hero rb or zero rb you know these are the type of guys you're getting if you want to get you know somewhat of a you know player that's going to get a lot of work it's just a matter of like where's the upside so like you can you can certainly argue again giovante's upside versus these other guys and and i think the uh i know i did um the eliminator draft right it was the first time i took giovante williams so when was that heath like may or june yeah um that was the first time i took giovante i think i'm only taking three or

four times um and then i did a draft last night where you know again crazy keeper stuff so factored in but i it was a hero rb build and giovante is my number two running back so i'm perfectly fine with that yeah i'm doing it i'm doing a hero rb build as we speak in the fft open and i'm in the sixth round seventh round now i've only have travis etn and i there's naji zamir white tony pollard deandre swift brian robinson aaron jones raheem mostert, Tajay Spears, the Bengals running backs. They're all still available. I'll probably end up with two of them in the next three or four rounds to go with ETN.

And hopefully I'm just kind of loaded everywhere else. Hopefully. All right. Some more values here. Well, Jamie, do you want to give any or do you want to just react to mine and Heath? I mean, I don't have their exact ADP. I tell you you know the reins are going in yeah who have you finding who you've been finding i i know you read the adp all the time so what's uh what's who stands out to you in terms of early or late whatever doesn't matter no it doesn't matter oh i mean you know there there's so many good players that i think are going after pick

100 overall still on this is CBS ADP. Like Tajay Spears hasn't moved. I don't understand that at all. Um, you know, from where he is, he's like one Oh two, uh, Jamison Williams, uh, Jackson Smith, Najigba Khalil Shakir. You know, these are guys I take a lot of just because they're, they're so cheap. Rico Dowdle. I'm shocked as you know, he's moving, but he's not moving high enough in my opinion.

Um, he's now past Ezekiel Elliott, which is interesting. And we'll see how far he goes. Chuba Hubbard, another one. Can you really make a strong argument for Jerome Ford being significantly ahead of Chuba Hubbard? And I know it's not significant, but it feels like that's the draft value. They're very similar to me in terms of what their potential outcomes could be. They could be the best running backs on their team for the entire season. And clearly you'd rather have the Browns running back than the Panthers running back.

I get that. But they're both potential stopgap options that could be replaced by October. And Hubbard goes much later. And he was almost as productive in the second half of the season as Jerome Ford was. So Hubbard is an easy one to take. Jake Ferguson is still a very good value I know he's climbing a lot he's in the 80s now but you know he's still somebody that you can settle for and be good good there Jane Daniels is going to have to pick 100 overall um for me he's top 10 quarterback so love that yeah with with Ferguson I always have have a tough internal decision there with Ferguson, right?

Let's say you value the top eight tight ends, you know, kind of separately from everyone else. So that would end with that trio of Kittle, Pitts, Ingram. And you don't get one of them. And they're usually gone by round six. Round five, by round five, you have the top five are gone. And then in round six, by the end of round six six you usually have the next three gone something like that um when do you take ferguson is round seven too early for him or you know is round eight the right time for jake ferguson what do you guys think i i think there should really be a top nine. I really think we should include Ferguson in this group

just because, A, you know what you're getting. And while there may not be as much upside, there's a reason why he's last, there's still the potential of that three-touchdown game. He's shown you in his resume that there's the, not league- winning upside there, but there's, there's week to week winning upside. And so second on team and targets, you know, that's locked in. I don't know.

To me there, there, there should be a top nine as opposed to a top eight at this point. Yeah, I, I, I agree with that. And if you like his last 11 games, including that playoff game, 13.8 PPR fantasy points per game. Like that's not that much different than what we're expecting from the big four. Now it's influenced by the three touchdown game, but it's also influenced by the fact that he had a terrible touchdown rate in the second half of the year besides that three touchdown game. So, when CeeDee Lamb took off, that offense went hyper-concentrated on two guys, and Ferguson was just about as good as anybody. Yeah, and we shouldn't hold that three-touchdown game against them. A couple years ago, I remember Travis Kelsey was kind of coming off a crummy year, but he averaged almost 100 yards per game in the playoffs, and he was able to show what he was capable of. By the way, it's sort of the same thing last year. Playoff games count, too.

You should not just discount them. All right, so you're comfortable with Jake Ferguson in the seventh round? Yeah. It's not great. It would be better. I guess he's climbing a little too high. But no, but he's still behind the Joker. You know, he's not even tight at nine.

So keep that in mind. All right. What else we got here? All right. So I'll give you some of my best values. And you guys tell me if you agree or disagree. What is this? Yeah.

Josh Allen is QB4. Someone's calling Heath out for ranking Josh Allen as Q qb4 behind the bar jackson yeah all right that's how i like it all right some values i thought were great this is based on nfc adp in the last three days 30 drafts and i'm just kind of looking at where these guys rank more or less among their position brock purdy tua and caleb williams quarterbacks 12 through 14. They're all going 114th to 116th, so these are round 10 picks. But if you, you know, fallback options

to get two of these guys, or maybe even just one, Purdy, Tua, Caleb Williams, great values to me. Thumbs up. You'd rather have those three, or Daniels, or Williams? Wait, say that again. Williams is one of them. Williams is one of them. I'm sorry. Excuse me. Those three, or Daniels or Williams? Wait, say that again. Williams is one of them. I'm sorry. Excuse me.

Those three or Daniels? I'd actually rather have Williams and Daniels in a six-point league, Daniels in a four-point. But no, I'm not saying that Daniels is bad, but I'm just saying

if you miss out on him, this is a perfectly good six-point league. He's going ahead of those guys? Yes. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, great. In CBS ADP, Daniels and Williams are tied at pick 107. perfectly good six he's going ahead of those guys yes oh okay yeah yeah great in cbs adp daniels and

williams are tied at pick 107 um so and two is ahead of them golf's ahead of them purdy's two rounds ahead of them yeah um so i i think like you know we're going to talk about my worst values and it's the same drum that i've been banging for months, but everyone, like no one's listening to me. Jordan loves ADP has gone up five spots and he's now at pick 59. So if I have a choice between pick one 15 for two or per to your Caleb Williams or pick 59 for Jordan love. Yes. I think that's a great value for those guys all right in nfc adp james cook is rb 14 he's 43rd overall which i don't expect but you might get james cook mid to late third round and cbs adp james cook going 22nd overall and climbing yeah so right he's up seven projections like rb6 okay uh jaleel mclaughlin rbth overall. Yeah, there are some handcuffs that are just handcuffs. There are some handcuffs that are going to play a lot, and Jaleel McLaughlin is one of them. Play enough.

So, and I like, like, I loved Jaleel McLaughlin last year, and I like him at that cost. He's a good value. I think it's interesting to question whether, like, if something, does he have the upside that he's ever going to become the lead back if somebody gets hurt like giovante williams wins the lottery and is not on the team anymore um does julio mcguffin ever see more than 10 to 12 touches a game i would say if that's your

projection for him with giovante which i assume. Yeah. He probably goes to 12 to 15. Yeah. Right, he's not going to be a bell cow. A little bit more. Right. No, it's a good point. And then, I'm viewing him as sort of like a hybrid of

Kamara and Sproles, of what Sean Payton has used that type of player for. Okay, and then Khalil Herbert, RB54. I tried to pick him up in one of our leagues that had free agency Jamie picked him up first for a higher priority uh I love the obviously I love the wide receiver range in round five to round six Diggs Rice Cooper Higgins Flowers Pickens McLaurin Dell Ridley Kirk Godwin those are wide receivers 24 to 34 Marquise Brown is wide receiver 47. I just think it's an overreaction for a guy who might miss a few games. I don't know.

Wide receiver 47 is great value for him. Josh Palmer, wide receiver 53. Love that one. Yep. And then I'm still going to say Friermuth. I know he was a sleeper for you guys. We got a little discouraged with his usage in the preseason.

But I still think he's tight end 15 in this recent ADP on NFC. I still think he's tied in 15 in this recent ADP on NFC. I still think he's got the best chance of a lot of these backup tight ends, backup fantasy tight ends to be second on his team and targets or earn more playing time and put, to put behind, put a bad preseason behind him because we don't want to overreact. So we get a no trade of Brandon Iuke and the shares that you've been getting the last couple

of weeks of George Pickens and Pat Frymouth are going to probably pay off very well because they've dropped. Yes. And absolutely, this is contingent on no Brandon Ayuk trade. Okay. I hope you guys agree with my takes. We will get the worst values after this break. And then we have Marty coming on very shortly to talk injuries. Worst values right now. We'll be right back. Heath, let's start with those older running backs changing teams and going very early in drafts

as two of your worst values. Saquon Barkley and Eric Henry are currently both being drafted higher overall than they finished per game at their position last year. Wow. Sixth overall for Barkley. Henry's 17th overall.

And Barkley is RB5 in NFC ADP over the last three days. Henry's RB7. I was surprised by that. So, yeah. I've got busts coming out today, and I write a little bit more in sight Ryan Heath's article and tweet stream about running backs, changing teams as veterans as a, as a rule, like the, the drop-off is greater, the longer you've been in the league.

So the drop-off for older running backs, changing teams worse than maybe like a 25 year old changing teams. Um, so I'm out on those guys at that cost. I'm out on Devante Adams because of my rule of older pass catcher starts to show you a drop-off in production. Believe him. And then we already mentioned Jordan Love at 60th. Does Ryan provide examples of who those running backs are that have changed teams? It was all of them. So on a percentage basis.

So it doesn't – it's not just – now, I think it was only running backs who in their career had at least one top 12 finish. So it's not like guys who were never good on their first team. Okay. Yeah. It's interesting. It's like they're, you know, they're going to, they're going to better situations. Um, that's why people are interested in them, obviously. Well, and that's the other thing is,

and Jacob Gibbs had tweeted this out yesterday or the day before, Philadelphia running backs in the Jalen Hertz era have not just been low-end RB2s at best, but if you look at their expected fantasy points, so what the

running back opportunity has been for running backs in Philadelphia, it's been 22nd to 24th at best. It has not been a situation that has been good for running backs. Now, I think people think it's a better situation because Saquon Barkley's

going there. They're going to give the ball to him a lot more than they ever have to anyone else. Historically, it hasn't been a good situation. Saquon Barkley last year was RB9 per game. The year before, I think he was RB5 or 6 per game. And he had every single carry for the Giants inside the five-yard line. And the Eagles still, their running backs, just take away the Jalen Hurts carries, their running backs had significantly more,

like nine or 10 more carries inside the five-yard line than the Giants did last year. And DeAndre Swift got down to the one-yard line five or six times, was followed by a Jalen Hurts tush-push touchdown every single time. You had a double-digit touchdown season from Miles Sanders two years ago.

You had a 40-catch season or an on-pace or 40-catch season from DeAndre Swift. If you get 40 catches and 10 touchdowns from Saquon Barkley, I still don't think he's going to be a first-round player. But I do think that's second-round caliber.

I mean, he had 41 catches and 10 touchdowns last year. Yeah, but you got to hope that he averages more than 3.9 yards per carry, running behind a much better offensive line on a much better team. And he was RB9, you said? 9 per game, yeah. Yeah, but the efficiency has to spike. It has to.

If he averages 3.9 yards per carry, it's not going to have that good of a year. But I'm not saying it has to like it will. I'm saying it has to for him to be really good. Well, it should. It should, but people do question how good he is because he really hasn't been that good since his rookie year. But I think you go look at his big plays last year

and you see an explosive player. Can he do that without all of the negative plays? That's my question for Barkley. Is he going to be looking for the home run all the time? Or is he going to be more of a consistent rusher? Well, you have to hope that the negative plays aren't as prominent because there's better blocking and a better concern for everything else on the defense there. All right. We apologize to Marty, who is waiting backstage.

We'll get to him in just a minute. Jamie, you want to give any of your worst ADPs? I can just react to yours. Okay. Yeah, I have one guy. Based on NFC ADP. Well, I was going to say Henry and Barkley, but based on NFC ADP over the last three days,

which is 30 drafts, Devon Achan, 23rd overall. Again, running backs fall in this format, and he's 23rd overall. He also went 25th overall in my FFT Open League. Not to me. Devon Achan, RB10, ahead of Pacheco, Rashad White, Josh Jacobs, James Cook. Oh, man.

It's fun. It's risky. It's fun, but it's risky. Devon A. Chan, too early for me. If he hits, he's going to be a megastar. I know, but what is hitting for him? Raheem Mostert probably getting hurt and him getting the opportunity to score

a good chunk of those 18 touchdowns. And him holding up to the workload. I go back to the end of last year when he was playing and Raheem Mostert was hurt, and I feel like it was either a pretty even split, or Jeff Wilson actually out-carried Devon Achan. So do they feel comfortable putting him in that role? Same question about Jaleel McLaughlin on a higher level. Do they feel comfortable making A channel of 15 plus touch guy?

And like he, he bulked up, but he's still under 190 pounds, right? I don't know. He was like one 83 last year. Maybe Marty knows let's bring in Marty. How much does Devon h hand weigh

actually i think more with heat is he's just he needs to gain some weight how are you marty how you feeling well everybody good morning gentlemen morning hey great to have marty here we had him here over the offseason we got some terrific advice we're going to ask him all right we got some high-end players to ask you about. Christian McCaffrey, it's August 22nd. He's still out with a calf injury. Should we be worried? He's the first pick in most fantasy drafts.

What do you think about Christian McCaffrey? Well, how about we have a – I'll just talk everybody through a deep breathing exercise because it seems like every fantasy manager is holding their breath on Christian McCaffrey, right? Including my sons this morning, Jack and Austin. Dad, what am I doing with Christian McCaffrey, right? Including my sons this morning, Jack and Austin. Dad, what am I doing with Christian McCaffrey? I'm like, you should watch FFT like everyone else. That's right. We got two new viewers.

Love it. Exactly. Here we go. Ratings are through the roof this morning. Yes. So listen, he got hurt early in the preseason. Hurt his calf. Now, here's what the situation is.

It is a minor tear. Anytime we say the word strain, it means a stretch and or tear of the muscle. The tear is actually minor. But what happens with particularly decelerators like the hamstring and the calf is that the tear is small, but the healthy tissue around the tear goes into spasm to protect that tear and kind of makes the injury field or injury size much larger. So the 49ers are doing right by him by keeping him out, being conservative. This can linger and be a long-term problem.

He's trending in the right direction, and I believe with his experience, particularly last season, I expect him to be not only ready for season opener, but actually quite effective. All right, everyone, take a deep breath. He's ready to go. I like that. And thank you for doubling our viewers, by the way,

with your sons this morning. No, I watched two or three. Okay, okay. 40%, whatever. Marty, we got another first-round running back, or at least a former first-round running back that's dealing with an injury as well. And Jameer Gibbs has a hamstring injury.

Dan Campbell says, excuse me, that he expects him to come back to practice either at the end of this week on Sunday or next week. It seems like there's a second injury that's happened to Gibbs because he had something that he was dealing with in the off season as well. I don't know if it was actually reported as a hamstring, but I'm hard to, hard to, hard to, hard to know how much that will linger.

Soft tissue injuries scare me, especially if there's multiple of them. So where are you at on Jameer Gibbs right now? Man, what a breakout season indeed that he had, huh? It is a hamstring tear. And once right away,

it's shut down very similar to the calf injury. The McCaffrey's has sustained, but with the hamstring. Hamstrings are decelerated. So if your quadriceps and your hip muscles accelerate the limb, the hamstrings decelerate. Let's call them the brakes. When you have that kind of lead speed, you need those brakes. Once again, there are three issues with hamstrings. First of all, tears typically are small and in the center of a very large muscle. So this poor blood supply,

which delays healing automatically, they're difficult to get because usually the depth is actually quite deep in the muscle, even with our hands and multiple modalities that we have to have a tendency to linger. And once again, because they're decelerators, there's always this imbalance between the accelerators and decelerators. So anything the medical staff and strength and conditioning staff can do to minimize that imbalance will help the player long term. Most importantly, you need to be conservative with hamstring tears because if you don't deal with it in the short term, you left the very long-term problem. Remember last year, Justin Jefferson was out seven weeks with a very similar hamstring tear and

the fantasy football community went bananas so much so that he, Justin himself had to respond with a little bit of anger. Like guys, I'm injured. I can't play. Not my fault that I was your first round draft pick. And, but that was a very smart move by the

Vikings and it paid off for them in the second half of the season okay Marty another guy who was in the first round for us now in round two Pukunuku and we had Sean McVay who explained the energy injury and said it wasn't really that big of a deal he's been pretty reliable when telling us whether injuries are a big deal or not but in terms of explaining the injury i still didn't really get it so hopefully you can clarify that for us and tell us that puka is going to be okay he dropped the second round really come on now let's keep let's give him the first round okay so uh earlier uh i think about two weeks ago in a combined practice with the chargers he landed really hard on his knee. Let me tell you what happened.

So the knee, including other joints, have multiple areas of these small sacks of fluid called bursar sacks. And those sacks essentially have lubrication fluid in areas of high friction. So when he landed directly on his knee, he actually inflamed the bursar so much that it actually burst. Some of you might have seen folks with a large sack in the fluid on the elbow. That's usually a bursar sack. Now that sack burst, creating a significant amount of fluid in the knee joint. So that's really what it's dealing with. It's not a structural injury, no supporting ligaments, ACL, MCL, meniscus, none of that was involved, but it takes very little fluid, about 10 cc's, a small test tube size of fluid to shut down the supporting muscles of that knee.

That's why they've been so conservative. So yes, I believe he'd be ready for the season opener and it'd actually be quite effective. But I'll send out a question to you guys. You know, it seems like after every catch, right? Puka looks like a train wreck. I mean, a car wreck, the way he tackles. I'm really, I'm worried about his longevity for sure. Really? What do you guys think? So, but you're not worried about the knee. You're just worried about he's kind of smallish and gets gets roughed up all the time correct and the swelling is under control managing well uh it'll be up and down as the season uh starts but no concerns there both short term and long term i think it'll be quite effective even as uh week one comes around but no concerns there at all that's the bullet for sure no No, I think that the injury concerns

are something that maybe we don't talk enough about. He had plenty of injury problems in college. He's got a pretty extensive injury history, and he does take a lot of hits. It's probably worth considering, but I'm glad to know that the knee's going to be okay. Absolutely.

I would keep him at round one. For some of you guys who are thinking, we'll have a late first round pick. I'm sorry. I wanted to follow up on Jameer Gibbs. Maybe it wasn't completely clear. It seemed like you had

some more concerned long-term for him. Is that accurate? Would you be down? You're saying keep Puka Nakua in round one. Nakua and Gibbs have both fallen a little bit.

What is your long-term concern for Gibbs? Great question, Adam. So with Gibbs, I do expect him to miss week one on the season opener, and I would not be surprised if he misses week two, only because we gave him a four- to six-week window. Being only

a second-year player and that elite speed that he has, they will be and have to be conservative, very similar to Justin Jefferson. Marty, do you have similar concerns to Jalen Warren, who also has a hamstring injury that he's dealing with as well? I think anytime you have elite speed, you have to be a conservative side, even a minor tear automatically four weeks. But nowadays we really understand the anatomy, the mechanism, how the hamstring functions in a real game situations. But so yes, we're always looking for a first time tear, let's say without a history of hamstring tears, we're looking at four to six weeks minimum, but no long-term issues when they catch it in

time. So there's a couple of wide receivers that suffered preseason injuries, very different injuries. Deandre Hopkins, knee injury from what we see is expected to play in week one. Marquise Brown, shoulder injury. Don't know if he'll be ready for week one. These guys are falling in drafts. I just talked about Marquise Brown being wide receiver 47 over the last three days in NFC drafts. Do you think that when Hopkins and Brown are back, they will be themselves? Well, we blinked and DeAndre Hopkins is an 11-year veteran. I couldn't believe that I was reading his bio. So he sustained a lateral collateral ligament injury, which is essentially the outside structure, the stabilizing ligament on the outside of the knee. Extremely elastic, heals beautifully.

But because of his elite speed and particularly that quick cutting action that he has, they had to be conservative. I had him at four to six weeks returning and possibly would be ready for week two. But the news as of yesterday that he's trending in the right direction and he might be actually ready for week one. Now, what does that mean? It's not a main stabilizing ligament. Pain is the number one concern. So if he's trending in the right direction and after last season, I wouldn't be surprised if he's ready and be very effective for week one. Marquise Brown, you feel like he'll be back to him.

So I don't think he'll be back for week one. We'll play conservative there. But that shoulder injury that Tyreek Hill apparently had with the Chiefs several years ago, is this a he'll be back to being himself injury? Yeah, a long term, no issues. But let's talk about the severity of this injury. So when he landed in that in that preseason game the collarbone it's called the sternal sternal which is the breastplate right and this and the clavicle

which is the collarbone so it's when the collarbone dislocates from your breastbone and his case when he landed that collarbone dislocated and went backwards into the neck region. Oh, gosh. Oh, yeah. Which made it a medical emergency, which was incredibly managed and stabilized by the chief's medical staff. Now, under anesthesia in the ER, they're able to actually reduce it or put that collarbone back into this very small socket, right? And those ligaments around that area just have to heal about four to six weeks. Tyreek Hill had the same exact injury, right? And was back in four weeks. Well, four weeks minimum for those ligaments to heal.

He basically dodged a bullet, a very serious injury, but zero long-term concerns there and be very effective. But I would not be surprised if he's out for weeks two of the season. One guy who also looks like he might have dodged a bullet, Justin Herbert, at least returning to practice. Can you talk a little about his foot injury and whether we should be concerned? Yeah. Well, he has a very common plantar fasciitis injury, which is inflammation of the arch of the foot. Essentially, back to show and tell, guys, right? So the plantar fascia is a very thick band of connective tissue that not only gives shock absorption to the foot, but also gives it stability.

When it gets inflamed, you lose that elastic. You lose some of that shock absorption. And this is actually with his right foot, so it's that drop back. So he drops back the push-offs. So imagine dropping back, and as you push off, it actually feels like you're stepping on gravel every single time. That's how painful this injury is. He was put in a walking boot.

I think he was on for about two and a half weeks, started to practice already. No long-term concerns at all. There's lots of different modifications they can do not only with shock absorption uh in the cleat in the turf taping techniques etc but zero long-term concerns so he'll he'll be very effective i believe this season marty um i have a question um we have uh two very non-athletic people about to take part in an athletic event coming up for charity, as you can see here. Adam and Dan are going to need this guy after the tennis match. Yes, thank you, Johnny, from the comments.

Yes, yes. So we may need to keep you on retainer, Marty, just in case we have these two non-athletes that are probably going to get hurt chasing around a tennis ball. What's the event? Tell me about the event. Oh, the event is me versus Dan Schneier, another FFT cast member playing tennis. We were going to do it on Wednesday,

but that's draft-a-thon day, so we're going to do it on Tuesday next week. Okay. Dan played, he was like number one on his high school tennis team, but more or less has not played in the last like 15 years. I played as a kid, but stopped when I was like 10 and played sporadically throughout the years.

But I've been playing a ton for the last two months. So I am ready for this challenge. Dan is getting scared. I have chronic knee issues to begin with. So, yeah, I haven't hurt myself yet, but I very well could in this. This is the most important athletic event of my life. Not a joke. There has never been a more important uh

middle school basketball we won a championship but i was a backup so uh most important uh moment athletic moment of my life okay here we go i will bring my treatment table be on the sideline ready to either one of you either one of you drops i definitely got to see what the uh what vegas is saying about this match so Take a look at those. What are the odds? What are the latest odds? Heath? I think,

I think we had Dan at minus two 50. Oh, I did want to ask though, it kind of was a followup. Like, does it help reduce Adam's risk of injury that he is the same size that he was when he stopped playing when he was 10? Wow.

You know what? It does. For every extra pound of weight we gain, right, it's an extra three pounds on all our joints. So good job, Adam. Hey, look at that. All right. Here's a little bit of advice for our viewers out there.

The key thing with high-impact sports, right, is to engage those hip muscles before you play. That'll give you a lot more shock absorption, particularly if you're playing a hard court in tennis. So take that elastic band or the elastic loops, put it around the ankles and walk side to side and backwards and forwards to really engage those glute muscles, give you a lot of shock absorption.

And very similar, when we engage the glutes with that elastic band, it's very similar to hitting a we engage the glutes with that elastic band it's very similar to hitting a heavy bat or swinging a heavy bat before we uh before we go up to the plate it makes you just a little more lively a little ready to go and feel a little lighter and light on your feet that was great actually i did have one more fantasy question let's go uh the the players that are holding out right now on august 22nd jamar chase brandon iuk cd lamb uh should we be concerned about them or at what point should we be concerned about them you know getting hurt by rushing into things you know i reported on aaron rogers uh

last week the biggest concern is the data is clear you don't play preseason, injury rates go up across every position. But we are talking about pros, athletes who are extremely fit, an extreme level of conditioning. So the football IQ is there, even though they might be holdouts. I promise you, they are training at the elite levels on their own, in their own facilities. So not concerned there. First couple of weeks, you're sure you got to get those game reps, get the timing right,

but have less concern with them. They're younger. I believe they're going to be okay and effective, but they'll get it done. You know, it always happens at the last minute, all this talk back and forth. They always get it done. Hope so. All right, Marty, thank you so much. Please follow him on Twitter at MJ Sports PT at MJ Sports PT. Marty Jaramillo, thanks for increasing our viewership and have a great day and weekend. You guys are the best. Good luck next week. I think I'll be watching. I hopefully it's only like an hour away from you or maybe less. You can come watch any time, man. Hold on. Let me get my betting app ready. I'll get it. There you go. BetMGM. All right. We can end the show right there. For Heath, for Jamie,

for Marty, for our producer, Thomas Schaefer, everybody go to tinyurl.com slash draftathon 2024. Bid to be in that draftathon league with industry experts. And we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football 2. Paramount Podcasts