Fantasy Football Today - Best and Worst Second Half Performers! What's Legit? What's Misleading? (02/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

We're going to take a look at four players who shined and four players who struggled from Weeks 10-17, but first, let's look back at the best performers from the second half of 2023! Did any of that carry over into 2024? ... After that discussion and some news and notes (7:35), we get into the best of Weeks 10-17 (8:35). Chase Brown and Bucky Irving were Top 6 running backs while Jerry Jeudy and Jordan Addison were Top 12 wide receivers. How do we rank those guys for 2025? What changed for Addison down the stretch? ... A look at four players who disappointed us from Weeks 10-17 (33:45) with Jalen Hurts being the least concerning, but Kyler Murray, Jayden Reed and Travis Etienne are giving us a lot to think about in our 2025 drafts. Who do we like to bounce back and who are we worried about? ... Your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is fantasy football today from CBS sports It's time to dominate your fantasy league Now here's some combination of Adam Dave Jamie and he What's up everybody and welcome to fantasy football today. It is Wednesday, February 19th, Adam Azer, Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg. We are talking about the best and the worst performers from weeks 10 through 17 of the 2024 season. For example, Jaylen Hertz was QB 10 per game

from weeks 10 through 17. Kyler Murray was QB 21 per game and six point per passing touchdown league. It's a little bit better than that in four point. Both Jaguars running backs were terrible. Travis Etienne was outside the top 40 from weeks 10 through 17. And Jayden Reed was not even a top 50 wide receiver,

yet there's some enthusiasm drafting him in 2025. Now, how about the best performers? We're gonna talk about four players who were top seven at their position in weeks 10 through 17, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Jerry Judy, and Jordan Addison. And Dave, why don't you give us a little perspective here before the show? You looked up some players who had great second halves in 2023. And let's see if they were any good in 2024. I have no idea.

There's always a chance to, to find these guys, by the way, your, your swell. All right. I've only got receivers and running backs or receivers and tight ends. We can get back to running backs. Do you think you could name some of the tight ends that had huge second halves, not last season,

but the season before. Their household names. Njoku. Njoku. Njoku. Yep. McBride. Yep. Oh, I'm gonna say Hockenson finished pretty strong.

He was, he finished strong, but he was good in the first half too. How about a former giant? Shockey? Yes. What are you drinking? Right position. Are you drinking Insurer? It's a protein shake.

Oh, okay. I have no idea. Jamie. What'd you say? That was more fun. Dave's drinking his Insurer. What's the answer? That was more fun. Dave's drinking is sure. What's the answer? Evan Ingram.

Oh, Derp. Yeah, of course. And then Jayden Reed, you just mentioned him. Remember how Gaga was for him after how he finished 2023? And then Rashid Rice had a pretty big finish to his rookie year and was huge for fantasy. I can get you some running backs here if you really want. But the context is interesting. A lot of players who we all we bought in all of them on draft day, the guys that we've talked about so far. McBride absolutely was a stud. Rashid Rice was on his way to being better than how he

finished his rookie season. Jaden Reed started great, fell off in a major way. Evan Ingram never got back to where he was. And I think we sort of knew that because he was the number one target getter toward the end of 2023. And a joke who just needed Deshaun Watson to get hurt for him to get fully, uh, unleashed in the Cleveland Browns offense. I am so bad at trivia. I love giving you guys trivia,

but I hate it when other people quiz me. I mean, a former Giants tight end that had a really good finish to 2023 and I couldn't think of it. You could have said he was on Jacksonville, Giants drafted him out of Ole Miss in the first round. I wouldn't have gotten it. I just like, I'm terrible at trivia.

But anyway, you got your running back. So I was giving you time to get your running base. Breeze hall had a monster end to 2023, but he also had some good games before that. Let's see. Kyron Williams again, kind of like Bruce Hall. He was good before. And then, uh, was the set after Rashad white qualifies. Let's roll with Rashad white who had from week nine on nine through 17.

He averaged 18.6 PPR points per game. And what happened to him the following year? We drafted him as a top 15 ish type running back and Bucky Irving came in and, and turned Rashad white into who he really is. Devin Singletary, another guy, then finished 2023, not bad for Houston, took over for Damian Pierce, I believe, and then just went to New York and didn't do much there. I think that's one that we kind of knew was going to happen. I think Pierce to go back to 2022 is a guy that had a big finish, even though he got hurt late in 2022. But yeah, I mean, personally, I was out on

Pierce two years ago and I was out on Rashad White last year, who actually finished 21st per game and Bucky Irving finished 20th per game, which is interesting, but much difference. He's almost a full fantasy point apart separating them. So big gap there. I don't know that we were so high on Rashad White, anyone on this show last year. I know his ADP was in the third round, but no, I don't think

anybody was crazy for him, but we were still drafting him. I don't think he was in the third round, but no, I don't think anybody was crazy for him, but we were still drafting him. I don't think he was on anybody's don't draft list. Maybe yours, Adam. Yeah, probably. I don't officially, I don't, I don't didn't draft them in one league. All right. Anyway, yeah, so we'll get into the best and the worst of the second half. I did weeks 10 through 17. We'll talk about them. I think very interesting change for Jordan Addison, which I did not realize until looking into it this morning. So I'm excited to talk about that. Yeah. Yeah. A dot. Is that what you're going with? It's not just a dot. It's also red zone opportunities. Target per route run went up. Some weird things definitely happened for

Addison, but there were changes made to how they deployed them in Minnesota. And you just have to hope that that continues at the start of next year. And Jamie, how are things with you? Good. I didn't realize we had to do breakouts for Express, so I'm doing that now.

Okay. Well, you should check out CBS Sports HQ. I don't talk enough about CBS Sports HQ, but there's a lot going on in the sports world. NBA is about to pick up again. You got a big time hockey game tomorrow, Canada and USA, golf season, March Madness. HQ is so good for March Madness.

This is how I get acquainted with all of the teams before I fill out my bracket. I watch CBS Sports HQ. They've got really good experts. They got gambling experts, but it just covers all sports. There's something for everyone on CBS Sports HQ. They've got really good experts. They got gambling experts, but it's, you know, just covers all sports. There's something for everyone on CBS Sports HQ. You can watch it on the CBS Sports app.

You can watch it on your smart TV. If you haven't tried it, you're gonna love it. CBS Sports HQ. Just some quick news and notes. Chris Godwin's contract was set to void. The Buccaneers pushed back the date of his void date in his contract to give them more time to potentially work out a new deal.

We'll see what happens there with Chris Godwin. Carolina signed Andy Dalton to a two-year deal, good solid backup. The Bengals, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, they're going to attempt to give big contracts to defensive end Trey Hendrickson, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins. We'll see what happens.

I think the Eagles have shown that they can extend a lot of players and give them big deals. AJ Brown, Devontae Smith, Jalen Hurts. Barclays done a pretty big deal for a running back and still do pretty well. So hopefully the Bengals can pull that off. All right. The best second-

They should sign Howie Roseman then. Yeah, is he great or what? He's a gator, right? Believe so. Yeah. Best second half performers, weeks 10 through 17. I got four guys, two running backs, two wide receivers. What I want you to do is I want you to rank them

in terms of how legit you think it is. All right, Chase Brown, number six running back overall. And they're all pretty much the same per game as they are. You know, I'll give per game, I'll give per game. Chase Brown, number five running back overall. And they're all pretty much the same per game as they are. You know, I'll give per game, I'll give per game. Chase Brown, number five running back per game in half and full PPR. Bucky Irving, number six running back per game in half and full PPR.

Jerry Judy, number six wide receiver per game. And Jordan Addison, number 11 wide receiver per game. 10 and a half PPR, 11 in full PPR. So Chase Brown, that's how you would rank them in legitimacy. Yes. But you took Irving over Brown. Was it you? I think you took Irving over Brown a few days ago or last week in one of the drafts.

Let me double check. If I did it, it was probably because I was drafting for like six people. Let me double check before I accuse you. It wasn't Tuesday. Does ranking for legitimacy equal fantasy football rankings? Yeah, I don't know. I think probably translates. But yeah, maybe which performances are you buying the most?

Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Jerry Judy, Jordan Addison. Okay, that's fair. You did in the league where you were drafting for you and the person who drafted Chase Brown, me, you drafted Bucky Irving before Chase Brown. They both went in round three. And I honestly feel like Bucky Irving's going ahead of Chase Brown consistently in our drafts. And I'm the only one who ever takes Chase Brown. Dave, how do you see that those four? I am a little hesitant on all four of them. Like, I don't think any of them is guaranteed to repeat what they did last year.

So like on my legitimacy scale, I'll say seven out of 10 for Brown, seven out of 10 for Bucky, six out of 10 for Addison, and like four out of 10 for Judy. Preston Pysh Interesting. Robert Leonard Yeah, I just, I don't, there's too much uncertainty right now in Cleveland Interesting. Yeah, I just, I don't, there's too much uncertainty right now in Cleveland to guarantee that Jerry Judy is going to be right back into the high volume role that he was in to finish last year.

There's not uncertainty in Minnesota? There's less of it. It's almost like I trust the coaches there, even if it's not Sam Darnold at quarterback to come up with a solution that'll keep that offense rolling. And when we talk about Jordan Addison, like the things that flip for him in the second half are encouraging. And it makes me hopeful that he can keep a lot

of those same traits going with the same coaching staff. You know, you've talked about some of the things that flipped, but he actually, in two seasons, I think in 2023, I believe he led the team in red zone targets and green zone targets. He's been a factor there. Jordan Addison, the a dot was really eye opening for me because he went in the first half of the season, a 15 yard a dot guy, which I'm pretty sure is where Addison was in his rookie year. And that's a that's a red alert for me. Once we get to 15 or higher, you just don't see consistently good wide receivers that aren't named Mike Evans.

And then he went down to 11 yards, about 11, 11 and a half yard A dot in the second half. And that is how you become a guy who had a 24ish percent target share, even with Hockinson. Because Hockon barely played in the first half of the season. Addison's best work came with Hawkinson playing more, but his lay-dot was lower, Addison. His target share was much higher, and he was still scoring touchdowns. This guy's a touchdown machine. I mean, I don't know if that's going to hold up.

Maybe it's fluky, but that's a huge development for me, in my opinion, to see him not just being a downfield threat. That's how you get more consistency. His targets per game went up by three after week eight. So week nine on 7.6 targets per game, 16 red zone targets in his last 11 games, including the postseason, 20.4% target per route run rate. I, I, I, this is when I'm open. When then you mentioned the a doc going down and maybe some of the reason why the eight went down is because he had more red zone targets, hard to have a high a dot in the red zone.

No, cause I, he did that as a rookie. I'm pretty sure. I mean, it, that might be part of it, but, um, okay. Well, they didn't do that at the first half of last year. And it hurt him last year. His numbers weren't as good at the beginning of the year. I'll get Jamie in a minute, but just another example. And I was wrong. I was wrong about his a dot. His a dot was only 12 and a half yards in 2023. I thought it was higher, but what were his

red zone numbers in 2023? Very good. I like he, I don't have him off top of my head, but he led the team. I'm pretty sure in red zone Jordan Addison we're talking about here. Right. 2023 led his team in red zone, green zone and end zone targets. Now, keep in mind, Justin Jefferson got hurt in 2023. Mr. Chunk. TJ Hawkinson got hurt in 2023. Addison didn't, but he was a red zone factor. Just another example of ADOT and how it matters is Jameson Williams, just a separate topic here. That's a guy whose ADOT went way down to second season. It was a lot more consistent because of it.

When you look at Brown versus Irving, Jamie, you like Brown better and they both went in round three. I don't see them in round one, uh, often. I actually think I ranked them as top 12 guys are close to it. But do you think they, where do you think they belong? Uh, Brown and Irving? I think they're back in the round two, early part of round three type of players. You know, you look at their, their potential, their upside, what they showed last season. I think

Irving, his stretch when he was the featured guy for the Bucs was pretty impressive. Obviously, Brown's stretch from about week four on was extremely impressive. The question will become mostly for Cincinnati because I don't think Tampa Bay is adding to its backfield because they're expected to bring back White and Tucker. So that's really not a position of need for them. Is the Cincinnati bringing somebody that's significant competition for Brown? And that's the question. So if they don't, then the sky's the limit.

If they do, then you have to wonder just how it'll all work together. We could have, and this is something that scares me a little bit in terms of the rookie class because it's very deep there's a lot of talent but we also could be looking at once we get to the day three guys of another Trey Benson another Blake Coram of talented player in a backfield that doesn't get used and so then it's still the Chase Brown show and and it's going to probably bring down his value a little bit, his ADP a little bit, I should say. And then you're getting him at a much better cost.

So you have to keep an eye on whoever they bring in. They spend a significant draft pick on that position, which it would be shocking if they do that, if they're going to spend all this money on these players, that they go and spend high draft capital when they need to fix their defense on a running back. So it wouldn't shock me if it's another Zach Moss type of player and also run type of veteran who's out there that they can get for cheap that's trying to resurrect this career. And then does that impact things a little bit differently as well?

But I think Chase Brown and Bucky Irving showed in 2024 that they could be amazing fantasy options Fantastic for their teams can do everything that's needed of them obviously Brown more in the passing game so far than Irving But I think Irving could do that So we'll see how that all translates to 2025 but two guys that I'm very excited to draft And I'd love to get them later on to early run three. All right, I'm gonna take a break I got some more stats to give out on those guys and then we'll transition to,

we've got to talk about Jerry Judy also. We transition to the worst second half performers, some of the more concerning ones. We'll be right back after this on Fantasy Football Today. The wait is over. The NBA season is here and FanDuel is the place to bet on all the action. I'm talking everything from point spreads

to money lines to player props. You can even pick who's gonna win it all. Whether you're betting on a breakout performance or an underdog victory, tip off the season right with North America's number one sports book. Just download the app and bet on the NBA all season long. Please play responsibly. 19 plus and physically located in Ontario.

If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or the gambling of someone close to you, please go to connectsontario.ca. So we all remember, of course, our Valentine's Day show. Chase Brown was my Valentine. I don't know that he's gonna be an 80% of the snap guy. He played 80% or more of the snaps in each of his last eight games.

He was on the field all the time. And he was there first down, second down, and third down back from weeks nine through 17, when he was the number three running back per game in full PPR on pace for nearly 2000 total yards, 81 catches. I did the math. If you just take out his third down catches in that stretch is after the Zach Moss injury.

If you take away his third down catches, let's say they get a third down back to replace him and he's the first and second down guy. He goes from an 81 catch pace to a 60 catch pace. And that was with Joe Burrow throwing like 42 and a half times per game. So I do, I think it's, I think you could see Chase Brown, if he is the featured back for them,

I think you could see him go from an 80 catch pace to more like 50 catches, which is where Mixon lived. If they throw the ball less and if they add a complimentary running back. So that is just, it's still good, still good. But just something I kinda thought about. Dave, anything concern you about Brown? Actually, let me ask you this.

When you look at Brown, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry for this season. You look at Bucky Irving, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry for this season. His metrics were unbelievable. His advanced metrics, he was elite, you know, kind of like almost a Chan, not quite, but like what we've seen from these unbelievable rookies, does that matter at all when you compare the two guys? I think that both of them proved how good they can be to their respective coaching staffs, and that'll give them early opportunities to start next year. It doesn't preclude those teams from going after another running back in the draft. Rashad White's

going to be a free agent after this year. Wouldn't surprise me if like, Round 3, Round 4, Round 5, Tampa takes another running back. I am definitely not going to be surprised if Cincinnati takes another running back. And they could very easily take somebody. There were a lot of guys in Mobile at the Senior Bowl that look like they can be good passing-down type running backs. I'm doing a report on Trevor Etienne right now. His hands are awesome. Putting him in a backfield in Cincinnati to take that 20 to 30% of snap share overall is absolutely not a death sentence on Chase Brown because he's able to do so much more. And you just, you know, show that he can do a lot in the passing game on first and second downs. I don't see why either team would limit either of those running backs, unless they just aren't good to start the year. And I don't think there's enough evidence to suggest

that either one was overrated last season. No, but do you care about the metrics, the yards per carry, the yards after contact? Bucky Irving led all running backs in yards after contact per carry. We've been duped by those types of stats before. And now I just think it's, the stats that I like to lean on is what kind of opportunities did these

guys get? And they got a lot of really good opportunities. What's exciting about Bucky is he didn't have the same type of workload that Chase Brown had. Bucky, he only had two games all year where he played 60% of the snaps or more. And he did it in the wild card game as well. But he still had 15-plus attempts in each of his past five awesome efficiency, including the wildcard game. That's what I hope the Bucks are thinking is, Let's make this guy our 1A. Maybe we try and improve at some point on 1B. What I would hope for as a Fantasy Manager is that they don't do a good job of improving on that 1B. And they just end up giving Bucky Irving a little bit more work and, and the majority of the games he's getting 60% of the snaps and there's games where he has, you know, gusts up to 70 75% of the snaps. I caught that.

All right, we'll get to Jerry. You're the only one who caught it by the way, Blackfizer. We'll get to Jerry, Judy in a minute here. Yeah, Bucky Irving, the last four games of the season, including the playoff game, it was, oh man, it was like 70-something carries to eight for Rashad White. I have it somewhere. But yeah, 72 carries.

What's that? He was dominating work. Yeah, but it wasn't really until the last four games, including the playoff, 72 carries for Irving, 10 for Rashad White in the last four games of the season. All right, Jamie, so you had Judy ahead of Addison and Dave had it switched. What's your case for Judy? It's almost the same case that we make for David to Joker, right? Like you just take Deshaun Watson off the field and the other quarterbacks there, mostly

Jamis were better for Jerry Judy. And I think, you know, you got to give the Cleveland front office. They didn't make a smart move with their quarterback decision, but this was pretty smart move to go get Jerry Judy and move on from Amari Cooper. And when they moved on from Amari Cooper, Jerry Judy finally started to look like the guy that was drafted as a first round talent in that draft class that we thought was gonna be amazing. Was it four years ago, five years ago?

He looked the part, you know, and had a lot of big time breakout performance, one in particular against his former team. You know, so there's the upside there to be a top 10 caliber fantasy receiver. You know, you look at this receiving core right now, Cedric Tillman had a hard time getting back on the field after he got hurt.

Elijah Moore is kind of just a guy at this point. Najoko had a hard time staying healthy last year also. So we're expecting them to draft a quarterback and that guy to be the starter for the majority of the 2025 campaign. Hopefully whether it's Cam Ward or Shider Sanders or somebody else where they'd go out and they get her cousins, that they're looking at someone who's going to lean on Judy to the same way

that Jameis did and this coaching staff did after Cooper left. So targets should definitely not be an issue. Again, ability was there. And so now you're starting to hopefully see it translate. And the best part about it is for him and probably the same thing for Jordan Addison. But I mean, all the drafts we've done, Judy's fallen. And I don't know if that's just perception of who he still might be, who he may regret rest back to.

But I'll buy in a little bit probably sooner if this is the case, you know, so I'll start looking for him in that round five range. If I'm, you know, the way I draft will be my third receiver. I have no problem doing that. I did it two drafts ago on our PPR mock as my third receiver. I have no problem doing that. I did it two drafts ago on our PPR mock as my fourth receiver. Again, he probably slipped a little bit just based on how our draft room is set up. But just love the setup for what he has going into 2025, assuming the quarterback situation is somewhat competent. And again, James being somewhat competent. Now, he's going to be a little more aggressive than a rookie will. But I think just looking at,

totally agree with Dave, the Minnesota coaching staff has proven to be a little more aggressive than a rookie will. But I think just looking at, you know, totally agree with Dave. The Minnesota coaching staff has proven to be very good for its, you know, skill players and pass catchers. It's not like the Browns offensive staff, specifically Kevin Stefanski, is not going to be bad for this team. And we may be seeing a transition, not just a quarterback, but also, as we've seen over the last year plus, the run game hasn't been the same. You know, so the Nick Chubb dominant, you know, years haven't been there because you hurt. Yeah, they want to pass the ball. It's so clear. They

traded for Watson. They traded for Judy. They traded for more. Um, they want to throw the ball and they've, they've been, they've done it, you know, with, with Winston, with Flacco, they've done it in spurts. Um, Jerry, Judy went in almost the same exact spot in our last two drafts. You took him with the second pick of round seven last week. And I took him with the third pick of round seven. You think that's good? I took him with the third pick of round seven, Jamie, on Tuesday.

And was that Monday or Tuesday? That was Tuesday. Was that yesterday? Yesterday. Filled like a long time ago. And I had two guys in my queue, Jettings, Jawan Jettings and Jerry Judy. I had the Jays and I went with Judy

and then the next pick was Jawan Jettings. Tahith, who'd you guys take? J. Judy over Jawan. All right, now let me just, Jamie, give you my issue with Jerry Judy. He really took off after Tillman got hurt. There were three games.

So forget about like Deshaun Watson, right? In the Jamis Winston era, which was weeks eight through 15. Well, you should attach it to post-Cooper. It's the same, right? Like Cooper got traded after week six. And Paul Thorgan. Yeah, and then, but yeah, Cooper gets traded after week six. In week seven,, but yeah, Cooper gets traded after week six.

In week seven, Deshaun Watson plays about half the game, tears his Achilles. Week eight through 15 is the Jameis Winston time. And in that stretch, Jerry Judy is amazing. He is the number three wide receiver per game in fantasy. He's on pace for 1,909 yards, seven touchdowns, 168 targets. He's incredible.

But in the first- 10 targets per game. In the first three games, he was on pace for 10 targets per game, but Cedric Tillman had 28 targets, Elijah Moore had 29 targets, David Njoku had 23 targets. They were just throwing the ball so much,

and he only had about a 22, he had a 22.7% target share in those first three games, which is not great. I mean, it's good enough for round seven. So my point is, it actually wasn't until the Tillman injury when Jerry Judy like really took off and got this dominant target share. Is that concerning? And also, I should point out, David Nijoku missed three games down the stretch. Judy like really took off and got this dominant target share. Does that concern you? And also I should point out, David Nijoku missed three games down the stretch. So with Tillman out as well.

So there was that going on as well. I don't know how much of that factors in for you. It definitely factors in. I mean, again, look, the biggest thing is the quarterback. So assuming it's a rookie and cousins, let's just say, you know, they go get cousins for nothing and then they draft, can't work. And then you're talking about a one year window of we don't know what happens until Watson's healthy again, if Watson never plays again, if Watson never plays again, it's for the Browns. I think the thing that

you look at is if you're expecting a top five receiver based on how he finished, you're obviously going to be disappointed. If you're expecting a top five receiver based on how he finished, you're obviously going to be disappointed. If you're expecting a top 10 receiver, you're probably going to be disappointed. If you're expecting a top 20 receiver, now we're getting in the range. If you're expecting a top 30 receiver, I think now we're in the ballpark. So you just have to understand what you're buying here. And so if you're drafting him in the case where we are taking him in round seven in our drafts, which is round, which is number three receiver

territory. It's perfect. You're not really buying a Jordan Addison breakout then. I'm not buying it for either of the two guys because I think we're talking about in the case of Minnesota, uncertain quarterback, I'll be more excited about Addison if it's Darnold because at least there's some continuity there. but you're still talking about a crowded receiving core with arguably the best receiver in football, 1A, and a tight end that's going to be much better and more improved in TJ Hockenson. Plus, who knows what they do at their backfield, which could be a more robust run game than what they had with Aaron Jones down this stretch last season.

So I think in the case of both of these guys, they're very similar. Clearly, they both have huge upsides. I mean, they're both first round talents. They both have the ability to be difference makers, but Judy could be the one and clearly the one. Whereas there's never going to be that case for Addison bargain injury. True. Final thought on this, Dave. Jordan Addison has 19 touchdowns in 32 games in two seasons. Yep.

Jerry Judy has 15 touchdowns in 74 games in five seasons. That matter? Sure, but it could also flip where Jordan Addison doesn't have that touchdown luck going for him and he regresses and he only gets six touchdowns in a season. I think we could agree that even with lowered expectations for Jerry Judy, six touchdowns is totally reasonable.

So I, I, I think these are two receivers that are perfect to take as wide receiver threes in fantasy drafts this year. Like this is something I think we can carry all the way through until August. something I think we can carry all the way through until August. There might be one or two rookie wide receivers that'll be in that mix, maybe a little bit ahead. And we'll fall for Tet Macmillan, for example, we'll love his landing spot. And we love his upside as a downfield, you know, 70-30 contested catch rate guy. and we'll take the chance on him over Addison or over Judy. That could happen. But these two are definitely going to be in that range of wide receiver 3s, who could become easy wide receiver 2s, if things break right for them. And there's certainly more upside for things to break right for Judy. I just think the floor is lower for Judy based on what we saw before. Jamis Winston and Jerry Judy played together this year. Okay. All right. So we'll talk about Jaylen Hertz, Kyler Murray, Travis Etienne

and Jayden Reed. When we come back with the worst second half performers after this. All right. I got something for you to watch. Oh, yeah. Go ahead. The, the, how we beat the dream team document documentary. Oh, is that about the college kids? Yeah, it's fantastic. Oh, what's it on? It's, I watched it on HBO. I think it's on, on Max.

That is, it's a legendary story. Yeah, I will watch that for sure. So by the way, if Cleveland takes Cam Ward, you said Cleveland could take Cam Ward. I'm so all in on the Giants taking Cam Ward right now. If it doesn't happen, just I'm done, I'm done. I won't show up for the draft show on Friday night. Don't take Cam Ward and take Sanders,

will you be this one? Done, done. I- You won't be a Giants fan. You won't be a Giants fan. You won't be a Giants fan. I'll always be a Giants fan, but if they take Sanders and Ward goes to, give me another team that he might go to. No, no, no, if, if Sanders, if Ward goes to the Titans

or the Browns and the Giants can't trade up. So they have no shot at Ward. I guess I won't. Right, that's different. Okay. I'm not saying they choose Sanders over Ward. Yeah, yeah, no, I will, I'll be fine. Like I don't want Strader Sanders. I can't choose Sanders over. Yeah. Yeah. No, I will be fine. Like I don't want to do Sanders. I don't think he's worthy of the number three

pick, but I won't be mad at the Giants. If they take Sanders with both of those guys on the clock or on the, on the board, like they trade up maybe and they take Sanders, they prefer him to cam ward. I will of course be a Giants fan, but I will be a secondary fan of the team that drafts cam Ward and hate the Giants forever. But not really, but I will be so pissed. Oh my gosh. Remember how mad I was when the Giants drafted Evan Ingram over David Njoku?

I don't know if you remember that, but I was like so excited for them to take Njoku and they took Ingram and I was like so upset. This will be magnified by a hundred times. Okay, just getting- What if Sanders ends up being better? I'm really confident that he won't be, really confident. But you know, it's all situation.

If he goes to a team that's much better fit than he could be. I mean, the nice thing is that if Sanders goes to the Giants, at least you know Deon will be coaching the team in two years. Oh man, as long as he's not coaching the Seminoles, bro, that's all I care about. All right, worst second half performers from weeks 10 through 17. Jalen Hurts was QB10 per game. He was 28th in pass attempts from weeks 10 through 17, and he was first in running back rush attempts. He missed a bunch of games, right? No. He missed two.

He missed two? Oh, but I'm giving you per game. Per game, he was QB 10. Fine. What happened there was they, Barclay was so good and they were throwing so little that it was hurting Jalen Hurts. I remember having this argument a lot during, about maybe benching Jalen Hurts and this and that.

All right, Kyler Murray, QB 21 per game in six point, QB 16 per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues. Travis ETN and Tank Bigsby for that matter, they were both outside the top 40 per game at running back from weeks 10 through 17. They both averaged 3.5 yards per carry. It was ugly for ETN and Bigsby and Jayden Reed. Jayden Reed had 26 targets from weeks 10 through 17.

He scored more than 11.1 PPR fantasy points in one of seven games, but I mean, four targets per game. Awful. And he was not a top 50 wide receiver. So Jamie, who are the two most worrisome if they exist? Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Jaguars running backs, Jaden Reed. I mean, Jaguars running backs are easy because they were just awful. Hopefully Liam Cohen can do what he did with the Bucks running backs and carry that over to Jacksonville and get at least something

out of one of these guys. When you see ETN, who has never reached the potential of what his draft capital was as a first round pick, he's had some good moments, but he's never lived up to it. And Tank Bigsby, I think they're going to be a problem for each other. And then I think the other one is probably Kyler at this point, because like we've, we've had a lot of high expectations for him to become an elite fantasy quarterback. And he's certainly shown flashes of that. But last year was so disappointing that he got this receiver in Marvin Harrison and didn't

make him better along with bringing himself up to a different level. He didn't run to the heights I think that at least out you know for me that I was expecting you know you two years removed from his AC out there so he had some good moments running the ball he just didn't do it enough. And then just the overall touchdowns I mean you know we know about McBride struggles obviously Harrison struggles you know so he just doesn't throw enough touchdowns. Now I do think that there's opportunities for all these guys to improve because I think the run game is going to struggle a little bit in Philadelphia because just the

natural setback of what happens to 2000 yard rushers and Barclays workload and age. I think we're going to see the offense be better in Jacksonville because of the play caller. I do think that Kyler will take make some progress based on where he was a year ago. And I do think Jane Reid is going to benefit because all you're hearing out of Green Bay and their media is very loud. Um, that this offense struggled down the stretch and you know, that they were, I saw one of their B-riders, I don't remember who it was say that they were, uh,

they, the, the talent performed better in 2023, but they weren't as talented. They were more talented last year and then performed to the same level in 2024 and struggled down the stretch. So I think we're going to see a little bit more balanced offense. It's funny when the running back comes out and says we need a number one receiver. So I think he understands they got a little bit more explosive in the passing game too. That being said, if they don't spend any capital or significant capital on it, Jayden Reid's in a great spot.

So, you know, we saw what he was capable of two years ago. Hopefully he gets back to that. So I have some expectations, you know, moderate to high for all four of these players, all four of these situations. I think the only guy I'm giving a pass to is Hertz because new offense, new running back to take a lot of pressure off of him. And then the concussion basically knocked out his last three games of the regular season. The way that he played in the playoffs, almost certainly in the Super Bowl. And in the way that he played in the middle of the year, he was awesome.

And I still think he can, can I really say he could be the QB one on a per game basis? Probably not. But if you're drafting him as the fifth or sixth quarterback off the board, could he be top three? Sure. Could he be top 10? Like, does he fall that far? Given that Saquon Barkley is coming off of a year where he touched the ball almost 450 times, he had 430 carries, so he was over 450 touches. Yeah, I think it's possible. I think Jalen Hurts can continue to ascend as a thrower and maybe have more put on his plate because Saquon might not be the same Saquon in 2025. I think Jalen Hurts could be QB1 if they let him throw 28 to 30 times a game.

I doubt it'll ever be more than that. After their buy, you know, this is when everything changed. Week five buy, from that point on, the Eagles didn't change. They became the, you know, the most run heavy team in football. He averaged 22.5 pass attempts per game from weeks five through 15. His per game average is hurt big time by week 16 when he got the concussion. So that's why he's down to 10. He probably shouldn't even be on this list, honestly.

But 22.5 pass temps per game is extremely low. Yeah, we think they won't run the ball as effectively, so he should throw the ball more. And honestly, he proved how great he can be when he throws the ball in the playoffs, right? Anyway, yeah, I don't know if we all, that was the thing with Jalen Hurts,

he just needs to throw the ball more. And he really only had like three games in this stretch where he scored between 17 and 19.6 fantasy points. And it was getting a little frustrating. It was playoff crunch time and he wasn't really producing. Anyway, yeah, Kyler. I don't even know what to say about Kyler. Kyle Sivers There's, there's, there was a secret to his game. He had his better games when Trey McBride was his number one target. So either the Cardinals stick with that and they make Trey McBride their guy and you know, they, they chalk up Marvin Harrison Jr. as a, you know, pick that they probably shouldn't have made, or they recalibrate the way that they use Marvin Harrison Jr. And they kind of have two co-number one targets. And you hope that Kyler Murray has

more success with Marvin while still leaning on Trey McBride. That's what I would hope for, as someone that could potentially draft Kyler Murray. And he, I feel like he's going to be in the exact same boat as he was last year. Top 12 quarterback, borderline Top 12 quarterback, brimming with upside could be huge. You take them late, awesome value. But this, this is an offense that I think can take another step. I think the offensive line can be better. Marvin Harrison in his second season certainly can't be worse. If he is, then that's a real problem. Maybe they add some speed in the draft. And Trey McBride, I think, has to stick as a stick as a key figure in that offense to help Kyler Murray along. I think he had, I think Kyler had eight games over 22 fantasy points and McBride had a good

to great game in six of the eight. So that's a connection that I think just has to stick in Arizona. And it would make sense that it would. But the other, the connection is Marvin. I mean, I don't know if Kyler's gonna be great, Marvin Harrison has to be. Fair, you're using the word great, I agree. I don't know, like the thing with Kyler Murray is,

if you just look at his staff, forget about the second half of the season, full season, it's hard to look at and say what actually went wrong. And I don't know, you just go, you look at his player page. It's not like anything was so different. He just didn't have, I think it was touchdowns, 21 touchdown passes. It was a lack of consistent touchdowns.

It was a lack of consistent running. And like to your point, Adam, I think about the beginning of the season. Terrible week one, Marvin Harrison was considered a bust right out of the gate, right? Couldn't get open, missed him on the one big play down the field. He comes back week two, he had three touchdowns. Yeah. Is it Marvin Harrison or Kyle? In the first quarter, I think, right? Yeah, right.

It was like, okay, this is what we were all expecting, right? This superstar receiver to come out and be an absolute stud and the quarterback to benefit because of it. Yeah. And then it was, okay, we went on the roller coaster. Oh, oh, Harrison stinks. Oh, no, Harrison's good again. No, Harrison stinks. Yeah. That's good. Then it was when is Ty Travning Pryde ever gonna score?

And then we had the whole finish of the season. He was trying to get him in the end zone as many times as he possibly can. It feels like a bounce back guy to me, Kyler Murray. But you said you're concerned, Jamie, but you, I don't want to take away from the concerns you voiced though. I don't wanna take away from the concerns you've voiced though. I don't wanna just poo poo everything. I mean, again, there's a reason why we're talking about these guys, you know?

So there's, and I think Dave said it best, you know? Like you're gonna get players like this, you know? And specifically some of these four players, these four situations, cause the Jack War is backfield, at discounted prices, and that's fantastic. Like Jayden Reed, I believe, went round seven, because the Jack was backfield at discounted prices. And that's fantastic. Like, Jayden Reed, I believe went around seven around eight. Like, that's a great buy right now. Is it though? Because like, yes.

But what's that based on a good half season at the end of the year? No question. For the start of the season, it's based on if you believe, which I do, that they're going to be a little bit more aggressive throwing the ball, then Jayden Reed is going to benefit. Yeah. And again, I'm not saying we'll take him in around five, we were maybe hoping for at one point last season. A question about Kyler. Last thing here, I mentioned weeks 10 through 17, right? That's the sample size, QB 21 per game. Week 18, Kyler Murray threw four touchdowns toward 36 fantasy points against the 49ers. And I don't think it was the 49ers backups.

I'm looking at it right now. At least their starters started the game. I'll look at the snap rates, but you know. No, but they were shelving themselves. We came right, yeah, week 18 is kind of, it's week 18. I don't know. The thing to consider is every defense in this division is going to get better.

The Rams young guys are going to continue to get better. The 49ers bringing back Robert Salah, they're going to be better. The Seahawks obviously are going to continue to get better with McDonald there too. So you have three defense in their division that they're going to play six times. It's going to be a little tougher. Don't forget the Cardinals defense will get better. We could say the same thing for Kyler as we did for Jalen Hurts. I literally just said Jalen Hurts might need to do

more because Saquon Barkley might not be as effective. Well, James Connors, definitely 30, and he could certainly be less effective. That would put more on Kyler's plate. That can work in his favor, could it work against him if the Cardinals defense gets better? And if the Cardinals run game, Connor, no Connor is good,

that obviously would be a problem because then his passive attempts, they'll go down. That was a terrible whistle. Yeah. Jamie took Kyler Murray, no, Jamie took Jared Goff with the first pick of round 12.

The next pick was Kyler Murray in yesterday's draft. Who are some of the quarterbacks that went after Kyler? Tua Tungabailoa, Drake May, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix. I'm going to have a tough time figuring out which number two quarterback I want to draft. I could skip everything and just take two from that range. I, and that we've been talking about that as a strategy for a long, long time. I love it.

But with those names. Right. Don't take two? You could always just take one. No, I would take two. I take two. Come on, come on. Who are we talking to here?

Take a two. I would take Scherter, Sanders and Kam Ward. If I were the Giants, I'd figure out a way. I'd trade back into the first round, take them both and fight it out. Watch them both sit behind Tommy DeVito if they want. Or Matthew Stafford. All right, let's read some emails here. This one is from Case, fantasyfootball.cbsi.com.

And I want to apologize if I'm reading anything that he's been reading on the Dynasty show. There's probably going to be some overlap, but we have a different audience. I mean, overlap there as well, but fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, that's our email address. You could also leave us a five-star Apple podcast review and your question will get read. Case wants to know if you would trade Jameer Gibbs for,

woo, what a haul. Let me start out by saying he has picked 1.3. Would you trade Jamir Gibbs for Bucky Irving, 1.4 and 1.5 in a 12-team Superflex PPR league? So Gibbs, you're getting back a starter who's not as good, and now you're still not guaranteeing yourself quarterback though. You don't know if he needs a quarterback though.

You don't know if he needs a quarterback. Right, that's some, but you- And you kind of have to hope that he doesn't. Correct. And then you're getting Gentie also, which you would be getting Gentie right now if he's the best running back. No, I don't know about that.

I'm not sure if you're getting Gentie. Instead of Jemira Gibbs and pick 1.3, he would have Bucky Irving and 1.3, four and five. I don't know that you'd get Gentie. I don't know if you will either. In a super flex. It depends what the other guys in front of you have, right? He can go to an absolutely awful situation out of the gate

and that lowers his top five appeal. I also think if you really want Genti, then you can trade four and five maybe for one, maybe, and then you're getting basically Irving and Genti for Gibbs. Four and five, one super flex, 100% gets it done. Yeah, no, I don't think so. Not this year. It depends how badly the 101 wants to be. Right, right, right, right.

I think Jantie will be a consensus top two pick even in Superflex. I think I would do this trade, but yeah, I would do it, I would do it. Well, how do you feel about Hampton and Caleb Johnson and the Ohio State running backs? Now, what would be interesting is you can probably get two of those guys, two of those four. Yeah. Now, they will be there.

I don't know, man. I'm not as, as of now, I don't know how you feel. I'm not as high on the running backs. Like, I kind of see it as like Gentie and then last year's crop. That's kind of how I feel. Like there are some good ones. I think there's some guys that are better than last year's crop for sure. That's the thing. It's definitely deeper. There's a ton of solid running backs, guys that have one or two traits. And then at the very top, there's, you know, Gentie's got all the traits. and then there's a couple of other running backs that have A bunch of traits that are really good. So it's a solid class. It's gonna push out a lot of older running backs from the league. I Think about we were we were

Certainly excited about Brooks Someone excited about Benson and then it was who's the third guy, you know was a quorum was a Bucky was it I loved Lloyd Well, yeah, Lloyd was in the mix Tracy was in the mix. Come on. He by Dow was in the mix I mean, you know you think about some of these guys and how we were, you know looking at them and It was it was Bucky and Tracy with only ones that emerged as guys that did anything. Yeah All right. This is so I final word. Would you do the trade? Would you give up Gibbs for Bucky 1.4, 1.5? I mean, if you're picking 30, you're obviously rebuilding. So yes, I think you want as much draft capital as you can. I agree. And giving up Gibbs sucks, but you're still getting back

a good running back and return for some, some pretty good potential players. All right. This is from Chad. I took over a dynasty team last year. I'm in the second year of a rebuild. I have the following rookie draft picks in the first two rounds. 1.1, two and four. Two, he will get Gentie. Yeah, 2.1 2.5 and 211. 12 teams super flex, tight end premium. Oh, wow. You can go running back quarterback tight end maybe. If hopefully you get a tight end at four.

That's pretty good. You just have to start two tight ends and two quarter and super flex. All right, so he gives his roster. I don't know that I want to read the whole thing, but he's got Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Will Levis. He's got London, McConkey, Odunze. Doesn't really have much after that.

It definitely needs a tight end. I'm probably going to take Gentie at one one. Should I be looking to move 1.2 and one four? I never know if I should say the point or not by the way, so I mix it up. To move back and or stockpile more picks for next year or Stan Pat and take McMillan or Cam Ward or Tyler Warren. What do you guys think? He's got one one one two and one four. Yeah. And his best quarterback is Caleb Williams.

Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Will Levis. I think he's taking Genties taking ward or Sanders depending on who he liked best and then trying to get Warren. If he likes warden Sanders the same, he's taking Warren at two, which sounds crazy, but tight end premium. And you have to start to, and according to this email is best tight end is Eric all who's I? Mean who knows if he even plays next year? Yeah, he needs Warren Now if he views Warren and Colston Loveland the same way then he can take the quarterback at two and just take whichever tight end

Makes it to four All right, 12 team dynasty league. This one is from a cam and it's cam ward. Yeah. And it's a PPR super flex tight end premium league. He is giving up Bucky Irving, Cedric Tillman and pick 2.1. He is getting 1.4, Jalen McMillan and 2.4. All right, so you basically it's like Bucky Irving for 1.4, Cedric Tillman for Jalen McMillan and 2.1 for 2.4.

It's kind of one way to think of it. Yeah. I don't like it. Is there is the second running back in the class, whatever you think it may be better than buckier. Hold on one second. He has picks one, two, four, 10, 16. All right, so. Well, how can he acquire pick four? If he would then have one for, right? No, he, I think he has the first and second overall picks. Right.

So he makes it pay to have one, two and four. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, you know what? I think he made the trade. So now he has picks 1, 2, 4, 10, 16 in Jaylen McMillan. I don't hate it, I guess, when you have all those picks. But if you already had one and two, is one and two with Bucky better than one and two with the fourth pick? Right.

I agree. I think I would have rather had Bucky. Yeah, he does get Jaylen McMillan. It's probably an upgrade over Tillman, but. No question. Yeah. Unless Godwin doesn't leave if you're talking about winning now.

Yeah, that's true. He's not though, he's in tank mode. Or he said, well, he said he did a tank and now he's got picks one, two and four. How about that back to back emailers? Look, he's got the ability to reset his team and it's not a terrible trade. All right, good stuff. We are going to do FFT Express.

We're going to do breakouts. Jamie's spent a lot of time on that. So looking forward to hearing from Jamie on the breakouts. And when we come back on Thursday's show, we'll give you a little preview of free agency. We'll be back on Thursday. Thanks for watching and listening, everybody. Have a good one.