Fantasy Football Today - Best Early Draft Values! (05/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Looking for a steal in your Fantasy drafts? We've got the names to know based on early ADP. First, we analyze Tee Higgins and how predictable he may be (2:55) and respond to an audience member who thinks Kadarius Toney has the worst draft value right now (5:50) ... News and notes (11:10) as we compare the very, very different average draft positions of Breece Hall and Javonte Williams, discuss the Raiders passing game, analyze what the Panthers could do in short yardage situations and more ... Dave and Heath give their favorite early draft values. We focus on James Conner (23:30), Khalil Herbert (27:35), Aaron Jones (35:55) and Treylon Burks (37:05) and finish by debating Burks vs. Jordan Addison ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline

at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply.

Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football today on Wednesday. It is a more comfortable day for me. I'm back in the host chair. Was a guest on the Heath Dynasty extravaganza yesterday. Heard from Heath that I was the best guest ever, so thank you very much. That is Heath Cummings here as well. Hello, Heath.

Adam. Yeah? You're not supposed to say that. You're not supposed to say that. You're not supposed to say that. Yeah, I know. I try to make you feel better, and then you come out and say it. I should have said it. It's a bad job by you.

My bad. Dave Richard is here. Dave, hello. Hey, what's up, guys? How are y'all? You know what? Heath didn't even ask me that yesterday. I'm doing well.

I just want to say Memorial day is the best holiday um is number one is i love it just just love it and i had a great weekend and yeah and uh yeah i've been doing great dave how about you rank it against halloween new's, and Fourth of July. So Fourth of July would be set. Well, okay, I'm biased because Thanksgiving, we're working. Christmas, we're working. New Year's, we're pretty much working. Nothing going on.

What happened here? He dropped your mic? My mic fell over. Probably out of shock. Well, I was getting ready to play this terrible take. going on. What happened here? My mic fell over. Probably out of shock for Adam's latest terrible take. Were you racing to go to your thread on Twitter of Adam's bad take? We're working those three days,

so they're stressful. Memorial Day, not working. And I actually, this is, you want to throw something in the bad food, in the bad thread, the bad take thread? I prefer the food of Memorial Day and Fourth of July to that of Thanksgiving, Christmas, whatever. Oh, that's, thread. I prefer the food of Memorial Day and Fourth of July to that of Thanksgiving, Christmas, whatever. I'd rather just have burgers, hot dogs, and barbecue

basically. So Memorial Day was your second favorite holiday? No, number one. Number one. Number one. The other part of that, I think the end of May is the best weather time in the Northeast. That's really what it comes down to. It's beautiful a lot of times.

So number one. All right, there you go. Okay. Welcome to the show. We have the best and worst draft values based on early ADP, which isn't that reliable. There's a lot of great and a lot of terrible values right now, but we picked out... Way to sell the show, Adam. Well, we picked out six names to know based on current ADP. First, I'm going to help Heath out. Heath, I feel like you need my help, so I'm going to help you. I'm going to tell you exactly where you should rank T. Higgins, okay? Oh.

Yeah. Where do you have T. Higgins ranked, first of all? Overall or amongst wide receivers? Amongst wide receivers. Ten? No, it's a little too high. you have T Higgins ranked first of all, overall or amongst wide receivers, wide receivers, 10. No, it's a little too high. It's gotta be more like 11 or 12.

It needs to be, um, Dave and I were chatting about T Higgins yesterday and we stumbled upon something really incredible. Uh, in 2021, he averaged 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game, which made him wide receiver 13 per game. In 2022, he played, ready?

Nine games with Jamar Chase that he did not leave early with an injury, that Higgins did not leave early with an injury, okay? In those nine games, he averaged 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have made him wide receiver 13 per game. The exact same numbers two years in a row make him wide receiver 13. Yeah, that's compelling evidence.

I was just thinking about how interesting it is that from wide receiver 10 through 13, you have three number two wide receivers where I do T Higgins, Jalen Waddle, Devante Smith, three. It's really strange. And I didn't do it intentionally. I'm just noticing it, but to have three wide receivers in your top 13 who are not number one wide receivers on their own team to have six of the top 13 wide receivers be teammates yes it is interesting and by the way the other one in that group is garrett wilson who's wide receiver 11 for heath and jamie wide receiver 10 for dave

so it's gil garrett wilson lumped in with waddle davanteante Smith, and Tee Higgins. He is looking like the only one in that group that's the number one guy. Unless DeAndre Hopkins is a jet. Right. And I can't imagine that Wilson – well, I don't know. Would Wilson be in that group if he – Probably not. If Hopkins isn't, yeah. It is interesting.

And then I brought this up earlier when I was making kind of a half-hearted because I don't really believe it, but a bus case on AJ Brown, think about the amount of yardage you expect passing from Philadelphia compared to Cincinnati and Miami. Right. I mean, I would think a lot less and yet we have these two wide receivers that are

in the top 12, maybe 13. I don't know. How does that, how does that make you feel Heath? Um, no, I 13. I don't know. How does that make you feel, Heath? No, I think that's a fair point. I think that the targets in Philadelphia, I don't know that Dallas got it though,

but I just expect Devontae Smith and A.J. Brown to have a high enough share of the targets that the lower pass volume doesn't matter as much. Also, Hertz rushing makes the passing game more efficient. Dave, I want to get to a comment here as we're talking about the best values. Roland says, spoiler alert,

Kadarius Tony is by far the best value at Worst. Oh, the worst value, sorry, by far the worst value at current ADP. I was looking up his ADP and reading the question. Yeah, I would not say by far, worst value at current ADP. I was looking up his ADP and reading the question. Yeah, I would not say by far, but certainly very bad. It's 69th overall.

Not nice. And that's wide receiver 34. It's just, it's way too, I don't, would I take wide receiver 34 in round six? I guess that would be the range. No, that's the other thing wide receivers you don't think so wide receivers in adp are going too high for me and you don't ever take wide receivers as high as i do so i think the answer that's no okay it's a little too high for me but i wouldn't fault anybody to take a number three receiver in that range. I think he's barely, I don't think this is too far off.

Maybe like a full 12 spots. Is that too far? I think not. There's some that I think are further apart that we'll talk about today. You're hoping that he becomes the top target for Patrick Mahomes and that he stays healthy for 17

games. Top target a wide receiver, obviously. Should we look at the wide receivers going around him? Because it's after Jackson Smith and Jigba, Mike Evans, Brandon Ayuk, Tyler Lockett, then Kadarius Toney, and then Jordan Addison's right after that, and then the Steelers guys. I don't know if I like this ADP list, because I think it really does include a lot of rookie drafts.

Because there's no way Smith and Jigba is going to go just after the end of round five as things stand now in fantasy. There's just no way. Heath, what were you going to jump in there? I was just thinking back to the Kadarius Tony thing and the hoping he becomes the number one target. Like if Kadarius Tony produces a Juju Smith-Schuster season from last year, are we happy with drafting him in round six? Yeah. Well, before the concussion, you know, Juju really stunk

when he came back. I don't know what happened there. But before the concussion, absolutely, he was a number two receiver, if I recall, like low end number two. He had two huge games right before the concussion. But, he was a number two receiver, if I recall, like low-end number two. He had two huge games right before the concussion. But he was pretty consistent in PPR. I mean, he's a completely different player. So that was like he was developing into a pretty much must-start kind of guy

as a low-end number two receiver. Remember how bad receiver was last year? That's the other thing. I think, I mean, at the very least, if he's Juju Smith-Schuster, that's wide receiver 34 is not bad value for Kadarius Toney. Right. They're so different. They're so different.

Dave was talking about what we are hoping for. And I think that, like, you have to balance that with what we know the risk is. Like, is there a chance, I know this sounds really hard to believe, that Kadarius Toney could be healthy and not be the number one wide receiver on his own team? Yes. Is there a chance that Kadarius Toney,

maybe even a higher chance than the average person, is not healthy? Yes. Is there a chance that DeAndre Hopkins is a chief? Yes, yes. Yeah. All right. So that's one vote for Kadarius Toney as the worst value.

Thank you, Roland. A lot of discussion about it in the chat. You want to join our chat? Go to youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. You can watch all of our shows. If you hit the live tab, you can see the full-length shows. Trying to find the stat on Juju.

What week did he get hurt jacksonville week was week 10 so up to week 9 with a buy in their first eight games weeks one through nine on fantasy points per game in a ppr league juju smith schuster was wide receiver 24. Hey. 12.5 PPR points per game. Okay. So, and he wasn't great. What was the viewer's name who made the comment? Was it Rowland, I believe? Flackvisor?

Yeah. All right. Let's move on here. We got some great stuff that you can go out and buy if you want to rep Paramount or this podcast in particular. If you ever dream about buying a Fantasy Football Today podcast shirt and then jumping over to get a Yellowstone whiskey glass or Top Gun Maverick hat, well, now you can do that with the new Paramount Shop, which offers a mountain of merch from the Paramount shows and movies that you love. Shop official apparel, drinkware, and accessories inspired by over 150

fan favorite titles like Paw Patrol, Yellowstone, Top Gun, Star Trek, South Park, SpongeBob SquarePants, and your favorite CBS sports podcasts like Fantasy Football Today, Pick 6, Cover 3, Paramount Shop, where products

are paramount. And we got a code for you. Use the code SUMMER to save 20% site-wide. Offer expires at the end of, uh-oh, gotta do it now, end of May. Get on there right now. The Paramount Shop, you got a day. Summer, use the code SUMMER, get 20% off site-wide. All right, news and notes. And then we'll take a quick break,

and then we'll give you the best and worst draft values. Heath, I know you wanted to talk about the two running backs that I have at the top of the news and notes. Brees Hall unlikely to be ready for day one of training camp, according to Zach Rosenblatt of The Athletic. And Javante Williams has actually been limited at OTAs, and we heard earlier that he might be ready for day one of training camp. And you say something just isn't right.

Well, it's not what we expected. Javante Williams injury was more severe, although both, I believe, had multiple ligaments involved, just different ligaments. And I'm not a doctor, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn last night. What's wrong is that in ADP, and Brees Hall was, when I was trying to find my three worst, was at 1.1 of my three worst in round three at pick 27, 28, 29 somewhere. And Javante Williams was at 1.1 of Dave's favorite values at pick 93, I believe. Now, I do think if they were both 100% healthy, Brees Hall would be ranked ahead of Javante Williams, but we seem to be factoring in an incredible amount of injury risk with Javante Williams and very, very little with Brees Hall. So what do you think the ADP should look like? If you're asking me, I think Brees Hall is going to end up being in that. He's going to go somewhere between 20th and 30th overall. Everybody has fond memories of him from last year.

Is it justifiable? Maybe, maybe you could make the bus case against Brees Hall pretty easily. As if Javante Williams starts participating in training camp, I'm worried that his ADP will rise to a point where it's too rich. And it's going to be like in the, in the 40 range, because I'm not sure if Javante's going to be like in the in the 40 range because i'm not sure

if giovante is going to have the same type of opportunity to just absolutely blast off as the main running back for denver i think he's for sure going to share with samajay pirine unless pirine is absolutely awful whereas we've already seen the jets who i thought would continue to use multiple running backs no matter what. We saw it last year. They went heavy on Bruce. Does that matter when they changed offensive coordinators? I think it might

still matter. Hackett has talked in the past about using multiple running backs in his offense. He has used multiple running backs. I didn't hear what you just said. I'm sorry. I said he has used multiple running backs every year but one, right? Pretty sure that's correct.

He also hasn't really called a ton of plays. He did in Denver. That was a disaster. Can I interrupt real quick because we have actually something very relevant because Robert Sala is currently having a press conference and at SNY Jets just tweeted Robert Sala saying he's very optimistic that Brees Hall

will be ready to go for week one. Cool. So Dave, you're saying between picks 20 and 30 is where you think Brees Hall will be, and you're concerned that Javante will be in the round four range and that would be too high. Just to sum it up, then we'll go to Heath. Correct. Okay, Heath, go ahead.

I would put Brees Hall right now in the 40s and Javante in the 60s. Okay. Okay. You're taking a quarterback ahead of Brees Hall? Yes. Well, I think if you're taking Javante Brees Hall around 30, then three-quarter recs are going ahead of him.

Yes, I would think so too. But if you knew he was going to be ready for week one, where would Hall be? If both were 100% healthy right now, I would take Brees Hall in round two, and I would take Javante in round four. I expect both to share. I don't see any reason to expect significantly more touches

for Brees Hall than Aaron Jones got. Okay. Kyle Pitts is still rehabbing his MCL tear, but he is expected to be ready for training camp. Tony Pollard has been participating in OTAs. He's recovering from a broken leg. He's getting there. What do you make of this Jimmy Garoppolo waiver? He has a waiver in his contract regarding his foot.

We talked about it yesterday on the Dynasty show. But, Dave, what are your thoughts on the Garoppolo waiver. He has a waiver in his contract regarding his foot. We talked about it yesterday on the Dynasty show. But Dave, what are your thoughts on the Garoppolo situation? And specifically, does it give you pause to draft Devontae Adams in the second round? A little bit, but I would expect that Garoppolo will get cleared and be ready for training camp and then this will be much ado about nothing. Now, if we get to training camp

and Garoppolo still isn't cleared and there's, there's a real chance that he misses the start of the season. Uh, I'm, I'm getting flashbacks to when Devante Adams didn't have Derek Carr last year. And I was very anti Devante Adams at that point. And then Jared sit and went out and put on a show with Devante Adams. So as long as it's not like the worst quarterback situation in the world, I'll still be relatively okay with Devontae Adams.

I might pull him down a little bit in my rankings if he doesn't have Garoppolo. As silly as that sounds, because I don't know if Garoppolo is going to be necessarily a bonus or anything better for Adams than what Derek Carr was last year. Might be worse. Deshaun Watson said he would love to play with DeAndre Hopkins. There are a number of reports on Hopkins,

but Robert Sala just said the Jets are not planning to pursue him. He said, we love our wide receiver group. Do you know who the backup quarterbacks are in Las Vegas? Yes. Maybe I should have looked at this before I said that. Are they worse than what you thought of Jarrett Stidham? Who do you think the backup quarterback is in Las Vegas right now, Adam? I think it is...

I'll just say Ryan Fitzpatrick. Can I give you a clue? Can I give you a clue? Yeah, but I'm not going to get it. The coach is Josh McDaniels. And his first name rhymes with Ryan. Brian Hoyer. Is that so bad?

Is that worse? Is that worse than what we thought last year? That could be bad. That could be not good for everybody. Joe Person of The Athletic thinks that Chuba Hubbard could be the short yardage back for the Carolina Panthers. Hubbard last year on third or fourth down and one was three for three, converted all three.

Miles Sanders on third or fourth down or one was six for eight. But why do they need a short yardage? I was reading that article. I was like, do they really need a short yardage back? I mean, like... Here's an interesting stat, Adam. Uh-huh.

Do you know how many carries in the last two years he's had inside the five? Chuba Hubbard? Chuba Hubbard. Two. Six. And I believe five of them were in 2021. He scored on three of the six. So it's not like he's got a lot of experience in a short yardage goal line role. He did score on his one carry last year from inside the five for a touchdown.

Does this do anything for your... Heath, you have Miles Sanders as RB2. Does this drop him in your... Not that high, but... An RB2, I think. It causes me a slight bit of concern. I'm not changing anything yet,

but I said, I think before we were on air, that I do kind of view Miles Sanders in that class of running back who are really good at making big plays, but not as good in always gaining positive yardage. Okay. Chuba Hubbard, last two years on plays of one yard to go, whether it's second, third, or fourth down,

13 of 16 converting for the first down. Oh, wow. So much of that came on second down then. One play on second. There was one second and one. What? Everything else was third and fourth. Chuba Hubbard?

You said you were talking about goal line. Dave's talking about one yard to go. I was not talking about goal line, but I guess I have to check that out. Baker Mayfield and... There were three, two, and second and ones. I'm sorry. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask have had equal first-team reps at OTAs,

according to Todd Bowles. And Buffalo offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey said that Dalton Kincaid, rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, his role is TBD. They're trying to still figure out what they've got in Kincaid and whatnot. Sure, Ken. Michael DiRocco. All right, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead.

Of course it is. He's a rookie tight end. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I probably didn't need to include this in the notes because it's kind of obvious. No, I think it's good because Twitter is acting like Dalton Kincaid has already earned 90 targets. What's his ADP? Let's decide.

His ADP is tight end 11, 118th. I think that's perfectly reasonable. That's exactly where I would take him. Because I just don't think there are that many good tight ends. So I'd rather just take some ups out. Yeah, I'm on the underside of that. Probably for the reasons that, same reasons that Heath would say. What are you going to get?

Are you going to take Dalton Schultz? Yes, absolutely I'm taking Dalton Schultz. Because he might be the number one target getter in Houston. And he's been a red zone monster for years. Man, the idea that Dalton Kincaid is going to walk into a Super Bowl contender that has Stephon Diggs, Gabe Davis, who they love, on the roster, and Dawson Knox, who is making like $10 million a year,

and just all of a sudden become a fantasy contributor is completely insane to me. I understand he's good, but rookie tight ends are almost always bad. I mean, they are, but you know, Friar Youth had a successful-ish rookie campaign. Kyle Pitts obviously set the rookie record. Yeah.

I like the fact that he's older. He's, what, 24? Maybe that gives him an edge to come in and contribute immediately. I made that argument for Hayden Hurst back in the day. I don't. How'd that work out? Okay, Hayden Hurst was not a first-round pick. Yes, he was.

He was. Damn it. No, I mean in fantasy drafts, which is where Kincaid is headed. I just think I love Kincaid is headed. I just think, I love Kincaid. I think when you say that you're taking Kincaid at tight end 11, it doesn't really mean that you have a ton of faith in him. That's true.

There's only a number of tight ends that you have a ton of faith in. So you're taking Kincaid over Greg Dulcich and Chico Conquo? Oh, absolutely. 100%. I'll take Conquo. Schultz is actually, I mean, you do make a good point.

He could be the number one target. Might score as many touchdowns as Kincaid this year. Okay. Might score more. Let's take a break. Oh, wait. Michael DiRocco of ESPN says the Jaguars don't want to see Travis Etienne getting 74% of the running back carries again.

Nobody was projecting that. I thought he got even more than that. In fact, he had that one game where he left early, but other than that, I mean, he was... This was after the James Robinson trade, obviously. He was just consistently getting almost all of their carries. I have him as a top 14 running back at 55%

of the team's carries. Okay, let's take a break now. When we come back, best and worst draft values based on current average draft position. We'll be right back. So we're currently using Fantasy Pros PPR ADP. And, you know, it's going to change a lot. There's not a ton out there.

So take it with a grain of salt, but whatever. It's still May and still a good excuse to talk about these players. So, best draft values. Dave, you said James Conner at RB28, 84th overall. After David Montgomery, after Rashad White, Alexander Madison, here comes James Conner as one of your favorite draft values.

You also said Alvin Kamara, who's going a round and a half after Conner, and Khalil Herbert, who's going super super late as RB 40, 123rd overall. Who do you want to start with? Let's start with Connor, who I have as my 24th ranked fantasy running back. He is not an attractive profile at all. But you think about the Arizona offense and now it looks like there's going to be a big vacuum of targets with deandre hopkins gone and connor's been there as a short yardage target for years i don't know who i don't know which

other running backs are even going to play alongside connor from game to game there's there's huge risk involved with connor this isn't the case for him in round four either this is the case for him in round six significantly. This is the case for him in round six, significantly higher than 93rd overall. You're going to get a running back who might be able to get you off to a decent start in PPR, and even against tough matchups in the past, we've seen him find the end zone. And that offensive line, theoretically, got better this offseason.

So I don't mind taking the stab on Connor if you're thin on running back by the time you get to round five. I just can't even understand why he would last this long. I mean, what is the risk? You know, he was RB9 per game last year. No one likes the profile. He's 28. Right.

When you say the profile, you just mean his age, right? No, it's age, injury risk. You look at that offense, it's terrible. We've talked about how they might just punt on the year and not even have Kyler Murray come back from his injury. If they got off to a slow start, that makes sense. What does that leave Connor? Taking handoffs and short targets from Colt McCoy? This team's going to play from behind a lot. I think Connor will still play, even though they're trailing by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

But there isn't a case for Connor to be just this math. Certainly there isn't much of a case for him to improve efficiency-wise. He's not going to break out for five yards per carry this year. It's just hard to expect that. But the volume, when he's healthy, is good. Okay. He scored 23.6 13.4 23.4 and 18.1 are you that this is like top first round pick production in four games with colt mccoy last year just so everybody knows 23.6 13.4 23., and 18.1 fantasy points.

And that was against the Rams, 49ers, Patriots, and Broncos. All right, so James Conner is an early good value here. Alvin Kamara, about 100th overall, RB31. After Javante Williams, after James Cook, then we get Alvin Kamara, which obviously is a big mystery. We talked about him a him a couple weeks ago. I'll just ask you again. If he's not suspended at all, when do you think Kamara gets drafted?

I think he will get drafted in round five, maybe even late round four, if there is zero suspension. And you can maybe even make the case that he should be in round three. Last year, he had a career low in fantasy points per game, guys. He had 14.1. Yeah, I think three. That's still really good. Yeah, what'd you say, Heath?

Three? Three. Okay, so people are going to be drafting soon in a lot of leagues. You've drafted some leagues, right, Heath? No. No, some best balls? Eliminator, no, you didn't do any of that oh fc eliminators yeah fantasy gears eliminators yeah okay yeah just curious like where you know where camara's going

or where those those leagues are incomparable you could start three quarterbacks and you don't have to start any running backs wide receivers or tight ends if you don't want to i'm drafting one team currently that is all quarterbacks kickers defenses, defenses, and punters. So I do not believe, maybe that's the ADP. This is what we're using right now. Okay. All right. I'll just leave Kamara at that. Let's go to Khalil Herbert, Dave.

I can't believe he's going 123rd overall. It's ridiculous. This is a likely starting running back for the Chicago Bears. He will split reps, but he's their best back, certainly their most explosive back. I've got him as like a round six, seven turn type of player. I'm excited about his potential in this offense. Certainly should continue to see good efficiency

playing off of Justin Fields. Is he going to be the short yardage goal line guy? That's an issue because there are two running backs on the roster that could handle that role. One of them's a rookie. I don't know if Matt Eber, who strikes me as a guy that's going to give that job to a rookie. The other one's Deontay Foreman. We've seen him play well over the past couple of seasons, but I think Herbert leads the way in terms of opportunities in this offense. I think he's a pretty good running back too. Happy to take the chance on him right around 70th overall. I wonder how much

people are factoring in Roshan Johnson and how much they should be. Cause this just really feels like a situation where the, to me anyway, where the rookie is not going to get a lot of work this year. Don't be so sure about that. He's going to compete for that playing time, um, in training camp. He's, he's more than just a plotting type of rusher. We know he doesn't have top-end speed, but he's a quality running back who can catch. He might even be able to have a leg up in pass protection, too, compared to the typical rookie. I think he's going to get an opportunity. I right now have Herbert at 93, Roshan

at 111, and Foreman at 112. I have absolutely no idea how many touches any of the three of them are going to get. I don't know how anybody could definitely think

that Khalil Herbert's a better rusher than Deontay Foreman, and I think Roshon's probably the best pass catcher. The best pass catcher? I think so, yeah. I don't know.

I mean, what would be the case that Kali Herbert or Deontay Foreman is? Well, definitely not Foreman. I just think if Johnson's going to make his— Okay, look, this is just my guess, right? If Johnson is going to make an impact, it will be at the expense of Deontay Foreman. I do think he's— Dave, you said he's not like a plotter. I think you said—I don't know what you said, but

I think he's more like Foreman. Thanks for listening. I don't remember the word you said. Foreman and Herbert are almost the same. I don't agree with that. Huge, huge efficiency guys that haven't shown the ability to handle volume or catch passes. I don't really think of Khalil

Herbert that way. I don't think, like Foreman. Foreman to me is just like a big running, a big kind of... He's not a plotter at all. Foreman? No. He was an elite, elite running back who suffered an Achilles injury

and took a long time to recover. He was that. And he's been awesome. But he's not an explosive player. He's had huge explosive plays the last two years. I don't think he's an explosive player. Yeah's had huge explosive plays the last two years. Nah, I don't think he's an explosive player. Yeah, you might not be thinking of Foreman. No, I am thinking of him.

Does Deontay Foreman was the guy who was on the Panthers last year? I know who he is. I don't think of him that way. I don't think he's an electric player. I think he's... I think we need to do some research on Deontay Foreman's explosive play rate the last two years. I'm on it. I'm on it. I'm on it.

Oh, God. I'm just saying, I view him— First of all, when we had Chris Trapasso on, Dave, to talk about Rashawn Johnson, we all compared him to Deontay Foreman. Sure. So I don't know what has changed since then. Neither of them are plotters.

I think Khalil Herbert is a more electric player than both of them. Agreed. And Breshawn Johnson has done almost nothing in college, by the way, right? He was B. John Robinson's backup. So we may not know who he is,

but he's a fourth round rookie. And a lot of times fourth round rookies don't really do anything like Zemir White, Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong, and Hassan Haskins last year. So some of them do, like Damian Pierce and Tyler Algier was a fifth round pick,

but so was Snoop Conner and Jerome Ford and Kyron Williams and Ty Chandler. So you know my theory. I think a lot of times rookies don't make the impact that people think they will, and I think he's the third running back, and usually the third running back doesn't do that much. Unless something happens to

one of the first two running backs. Yes, of course. I agree. All right, what do you want to know about Deontay Foreman, Heath? Go ahead, Heath. Well, I wanted to go back to the pass-catching thing. Khalil Herbert played five years in college and caught 34 passes. I know, I know. Roshon Johnson played behind B. Sean Johnson.

Robinson, yeah. And caught 56 passes. In how many years? Four. So 24 more in one fewer year with B. Sean Robinson on the team for three of those. It doesn't always translate. I think if you look at some of the profiles of these

running backs in college, people don't consider them pass-catching running backs, even if they have caught some passes. I can't remember a few guys in this class. I'm not saying that he is going to be Alvin Kamara. I'm saying of the three backs on the Bears, now Travis Homer's there also. Maybe there's a four-back committee, in which case we shouldn't draft any of them in the top 100. No, Dave, I would like to compare the explosive plays for Khalil Herbert versus Deontay Foreman and see if there's this wide gap.

I think Adam views Deontay Foreman and see if there's this wide gap. I think Dave, or Adam views Deontay Foreman as David Montgomery. I bet a lot of people do. Better. Better. Alright. Who had the higher explosive rush rate over the last two years? Herbert or Foreman? Two years.

Herbert. No, I'd say I wouldn't be surprised if it was Herbert. I just don't think it's that far off. 9% for Herbert, 7.4% for Foreman. Both of them in the top 30 among, it's basically the top half of running backs with at least 200 rushes over the last

two seasons. Who had the higher avoided tackle rate? No. I would guess Herbert. I don't really put a lot of stock on that. You're both correct. That's correct. Herbert has terrific advanced metrics. Which is one of the reasons why I

really like him. 19.7% for Herbert, 17% for Foreman. Again, close, Heath. And both above average, right? Yes. No, I would say that it's right around average. Technically, Herbert is above, Foreman is below.

Average was 18 and a half. Does anyone care anymore about this? I mean, I think it's interesting, but I don't know how people feel about it. It's interesting, but I just think Herbert is a different type of running back compared to Foreman and Robinson. I think Foreman and Robinson are kind of, or not Robinson, I'm sorry, Roshon Johnson. I think Foreman and Johnson are kind of similar. And so those two might end up competing for who the number two guy is

in Chicago's offense. I think Herbert's a lock to be the number one. Let's go to Heath's list now. And Heath, your favorite draft values based on ADP, early ADP. Aaron Jones in round five, 54th overall. RB 16 after Ken Walker. But before, Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, and Miles Sanders. Running back, good running back value in that round, my gosh.

Traylon Burks, wide receiver 38. And Samaje Pirine, RB 33. So Aaron Jones, people will... What do you think is concerning people in pushing into round five? I would just need to first say that Khalil Herbert would be the first ever sixth round running back

to average eight and a half touches per game this first two years in the league and be a lock to be the number one running back for the following year. Did I ever say he was a lock? That is completely not what I was saying. I was saying that Roshon Johnson, I don't think he's going to have a big role.

Which team uses three running backs in a significant way? It doesn't happen. I don't know if that's necessarily true. It more or less does not happen. I think the Chiefs might have last year. At the same time? But regardless, I wasn't arguing they would use three running backs

as that I have no idea which one is better or will be used. Okay, I will tell you that it's Khalil Herbert. Yeah, obvious. I mean, you can look at his track record and his pedigree. I agree. His track record, yeah. I can't believe I'm trashing a former Jayhawk like this. I'm such a terrible person.

Yeah, I don't understand. Aaron Jones was just like, uh-huh? Why is Aaron Jones? And part of it is, but what, RB what? 16. 16. That's not as awful. I don't think RB16 should probably go in around five.

Correct, yes. But I don't expect things to be much different for Aaron Jones. He obviously has more risk because he's older. I think at least a portion of the community would think that because he hasn't had as much work that he doesn't have as much tread on his tires that the age doesn't matter as much um I he was so much better running the ball last year than AJ Dillon I can't imagine Dylan getting a bigger share of the workload he's probably still going to be close to second on the team in targets like he always is I think he's a borderline top 12 running back.

You know what's interesting? He's going, according to this early Fantasy Pros ADP, he's going 14 picks after Christian Watson. Christian Watson is the most desired Packer right now. Interesting. Second player on Heath's list is

Traylon Burks. He is wide receiver 38, and he is going after Jordan Addison and after both Pittsburgh wide receivers. What do you think? I think that people are maybe overestimating

how bad the pass offense is in Tennessee in that when there's literally nobody else there to challenge you for wide receiver targets, even if you only throw 300 passes to the wide receivers, you can get as many as you need. And I think Traylon Burks, a former first round pick who had injury problems in his first year, that's being held against him too much. I expect him to be the alpha in this pass offense and be a borderline number two wide receiver.

And finally, Samaje Pirine, 105th overall, RB33. Everything we just talked about with Javante Williams. Would you rather have, let's go back to Traylon Burks then, Traylon Burks or Jordan Addison? Burks. Addison.

Ooh, debate. Dave, go. I think Addison? Burks. Addison. Ooh, debate. Dave, go. I think Addison's going to see more targets per game. I think he's a candidate for 1,000 yards without taking too much away from Justin Jefferson. I think he's a great fit for what the Vikings need to do to oppose what defenses have been doing. He's going to be the plan B when plan A is double covered.

Plan A being Justin Jefferson. Traylon Burks played seven games in the second half of last season, averaged less than five and a half targets per game, under four catches per game. I think he's a good player, and I think he can absolutely break out in his second season. But I'm actually on board with where he's being picked. I'm okay with him being just outside the top 36 wide receivers. I'm okay with him being picked after

round seven. I think he's got some downside that should be baked in just because the Titans are a slow moving conservative run first offense. And I don't necessarily agree that there's only one guy who's going to just soak up every single target there i think ococo is going to take a step forward kyle phelps will be back he's going to be somebody in the slot someone else could always step up and uh i feel like it's it's safe to put burks at 38th among wide receivers i do think holding his targets per game especially when you're talking total targets and not target share against him is not fair because those last three games of the year were started by Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs. Even if something happens to Ryan Tannehill

this year, I think they'll have better quarterback play than that. And Chigokonkwo is a part-time player. I like him, and he's fine for a tight end, but I don't think he's going to play more than 50 or 60% of the snaps. Kyle Phillips was mostly irrelevant last year, a rookie just like Burks and not a first-round pick. Heath, you'd agree that it's rare to put a wide receiver that's coming off a year where they average 5.4 targets per game as a top 40 receiver, right? Yes, you have to.

Again, as I just said, I think he played two games that he left early. I mentioned the injury history. He played the last three games with Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs, which is like 25% of his season. Sure. And the target per route run rate was 21.5%, which is okay. That's different from target share. You don't want to know what the target share is.

I'm still expecting him to be better than that. I'm not saying that he's going to be a total bust and get rid of him, but I'm not putting him in that same group as – I don't put him in the group of receivers that I look at and say, okay, I can make the case for this guy getting to 1,000 yards in 17 games. I don't think he can do it. Oh, I absolutely, yeah, I don't think that's the ceiling at all. He was starting to get pretty interesting, Burks.

He goes for seven catches, 111 yards at Green Bay. He goes for four catches, 70 yards against Cincinnati. Then he catches a 25-yard touchdown against the Eagles and leaves the game with, I think, was it a concussion? He left the game. He missed the rest of Week 13, all of Week 14 and 15. He came back, and that's when he had those three games that Heath mentioned with terrible quarterback play.

So he was starting to pick it up. In the last four games that he played with Tannehill, he averaged 5.25 targets per game. No, no, no, because he left one of them after one catch. This is why you got an Acer stat. He played 10 snaps in that game. Right, but we're going to get into this argument

every time you talk about it. We might have started him in those games. But you can't apply it forward. You can't say he averaged 5 targets per game because he was at 6, eight, and six targets in the three games, and then he played ten snaps and he caught a 25-yard touchdown. Right, but it includes, it basically includes

the games, yeah, it includes the games he played where Tannehill was on the field. It includes every play from the second half of the year. Right, I know, I just I mean, I'll stop talking because the stats just don't get better even when you stretch it out to the full season. I know.

I'm just saying you can't hold that game against him where he caught one pass. Okay, well, I don't think the numbers are going to all of a sudden look amazing if we pull that one game out. No, but I think Burks and Addison are similar in terms of prospect level. Addison obviously has a better quarterback. Burks is competing with Nick Westbrook, Kyle Phillips,

and Chigo Conquo for targets. Addison's competing with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hawkinson. One's on a team that's going to throw the ball 33 times a game, and the other one, it's going to be like 25 times a game. And, you know, better quality of passes, you would think, in Minnesota. Well, a little. Maybe, yeah. I don't think it's necessarily a crazy difference there.

I don't really think there's much risk to Traylon Burks other than last year's injuries turn out to be that he's injury prone. If he plays 17 games this year, I think he's going to be a top 24 wide receiver. And let's agree on this. Well, I don't know if I agree on that. 17 games? No, I don't think he can get there. I think

if you're drafting him right around this range that we're talking about, there's like no harm, plenty of upside. You should feel good. We're going to take a break and we're actually going to skip the worst values. We'll save that for another episode. We'll read some emails when we come back at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com.

All right. Thank you. You heard about the best values based on current average draft position. We highlighted James Connor, 84th overall Alvin Camara, about a hundredth overall Khalil Herbert, 123rd overall. We all agreed. Khalil Herbert is a phenomenon.

Heath likes Aaron Jones in round five. And by the way, based on current fantasy pros ADP, there are no running backs going around for, so RB 15 goes in round five. And by the way, based on current fantasy pros ADP, there are no running backs going around for so RB 15 goes around three RB 16 goes around five and that's Aaron Jones trailing Berks at wide receiver 38 and Samaj a P Ryan as a late, you know, latest pick round nine or so 105th overall. Okay, here are a few emails I want to read from Anthony in Tacoma. Do you ever consider doubling down on a fade or bus projection that doesn't pan out?

Much like post-hype sleeper principle, are there any players you predicted to bust last season who didn't that you would double down on this year? And it doesn't have to be busts. It could be anything that didn't work out last year you're doubling down on this year. There's probably some. I don't have any off the top of my head right now. DJ Moore.

Well, okay, but to what degree? Because last year you were super high. Yeah, I've got him still as a top 15 wide receiver. But last year you had him top 10, right? Yes. Not to bring up bad memories. That's the whole point of this. Well, obviously that was the point of saying that. Adam had already said it and you

wanted to say it again. It's clear that was the point. No, Dave's not like that. I'm like that. Dave is sneaky like that. We're all like that. We all are. You're no angel, Heath Cummings. No, I'm obvious about it. Mine is out in the open and

clear and I laugh about it while I'm doing it. Dave says not to do this and then does it. Yeah. Well, he's polite about it. I feel like that's what I'm doing with Jerry Judy because it's going to be kind of my guy, I think.

And that was Courtland Sutton last year. So I do feel like I'm going to that well again, but I'm changing the player. Does Mark Andrews count? Where are you ranking him? Tight end two? No. Everybody hates him as tight end two.

Well, so we're all doing it with him. No, I think he deserves tight end two. Was he a bust last year? He was a bust compared to two years ago. He was a bust. He was years ago. He was a bust. He was a top three tight end, wasn't he? He was so bad in the second half of the season. I think he was a bust at a round two cost.

He wasn't a bust until his injury. And then Lamar Jackson. Right. He was an understandable bust. Anyone for you, Dave, that you're doubling down on? I'm looking to see. I don't know if I've got anybody but yeah it's okay it's a good point just because it didn't work out last year

it doesn't mean it won't work out this year so you shouldn't run away from a feeling you had that just didn't work out this one's from Matt where's Matt from Matt is from Chico, California.

Dear Joe Lamar, Kyle and Steve. Hmm. Ravens quarter. Oh no, it's Ravens quarterback. I was like, what am I missing?

Here I am trying to like sarcastic. I'm trying to like sarcastic, be sarcasm through that one. And then I realized, well, maybe some people don't know that. Yes. Those are all Ravens quarterbacks. I'm commissioner of a family league,

and with it being only eight teams, I decided to make it a super flex league. This went over huge with league mates, etc. It got me thinking, shouldn't quarterback be the most important fantasy position, just how it is in the NFL? We all know how much of an advantage it is to have an elite NFL quarterback, but in fantasy

it's arguably the most replaceable position. Because of this, my question for you is shouldn't all leagues become superflex in order to reflect NFL values on quarterback? Yes. Love it. No. I think the only thing I can say against it is that

it's not realistic of what happens in the NFL. You don't see teams using two quarterbacks at the same time. Typically, no. Play after play. No. Not common. Right.

Can I – Shea Futee has been talking about this for a while because of the Dynasty show on Tuesday. And I'd really like the ability to just click on things in the chat and have them pop up on the screen. Oh, please tell me, what would you like? Oh, this? Heath is good with projections? No, there was another one. Adam was so high on Sutton last year.

From Sutton to Judy, Adam's autobiography. Is that it? I just think, if I could just click on the button occasionally. Give him the access. Give him the email address. Let him log it in. I was just on another fantasy video. They're going to eventually make you a producer of the show, Heath.

Oh yeah, you can edit after the show too. No, I don't want to do that please. Although, you probably don't want to give me that. No, I don't. Don't give me all those tools. You have no idea what's going to start showing up in the Adam Hazer thread take. It won't be me tweeting anymore. It'll be Adam's actually saying it. Oh, God.

All right. I don't think every league should be super flex, but I am very pro super flex. But I don't know that it's because I think it reflects quarterback value accurately. But it's fun. It's just really fun. Wait, but you agree that it is completely, like, one way that fantasy football does not reflect quarterback value accurately is that we have nerfed quarterbacks to the point that we, like, if we were reflecting value accurately, quarterbacks would go in round one and running backs would go, well well when the ADP that we have today shows them going. I don't really think about it that way. I don't think about it. No, I understand you don't think about it that way, but this person just said reflects quarterback value accurately. So I'm asking you to think about it that way. How would you say fantasy

football would reflect quarterback value accurately in adp more well super flex more so than than reg than you know uh single quarterback but also you know you're you end up starting like the worst quarterbacks in the nfl so maybe if you wanted to really reflect their value maybe you would do a single quarterback league and just increase their scoring or something like that, but we don't need to do all that, but super flex is great. And for those of you who have never done it,

it's, it's not, it's not intimidating. It's not hard. It's just great. You know, it's just really fun. You know,

sometimes people don't want to change things up. It's kind of like how I feel about IDP. The first time I was invited into the IDP league, I was like, gosh, I don't know about this, but then I got used to it and I love it. But Superflex is just a piece of cake and I totally recommend it.

You say it's a piece of cake. In what ways is it a piece of cake? Because if you have a quarterback that underwhelms or misses time, that piece of cake turns into a well-done piece of coal. I simply meant that yesterday on the Dynasty show, we were talking about rules for the new Dynasty League and tight end premium and return yard points and all that stuff. But you actually have to start looking up players' stats and you have to start doing math and things like that.

Superflex is not like that at all. If you're just a casual fantasy player, it's very easy to implement, and you will enjoy it. It will not be a burden. So from the aspect of explaining it to league mates, having them understand what Superflex means, and what the scoring for it is, yes, piece of cake. No question.

From Devin, I won my championship last year, so I thought it was time to trade some older players and reload. So grade these trades. I traded Eckler and Mike Williams for Dobbins and Christian Watson. Eckler and Mike Williams for Dobbins and Christian Watson. I like it for you. You win that trade.

This was full dynasty? Yeah. I think so. Yeah, I don't love it, but I don't hate it. I traded Hopkins and Dalvin Cook for Debo Samuel and pick 410. If you're trying to win this year,

I don't like that trade. That's true. Well, certainly the first one's terrible if you're trying to win this year, I don't like that trade. That's true. Well, certainly the first one's terrible if you're trying to win this year also, I think anyway. That's all the point. He won last year, so he's just reloading. Now he's trying to reload to win in two years, something like that.

I don't think he got enough in the second trade. I think there is a path that the first trade actually makes you better this year, too. I don't see that path with the second trade. Agreed. I also traded Samaje Pirine, George Kittle, and Aaron Jones. Samaje Pirine,

George Kittle, and Aaron Jones for DJ Moore and Hollywood Brown. That sounds good. Yeah. And I was wondering what value you place on championship week good luck charm John Meche. Well, he's not a good luck charm anymore.

He's going to get drafted in every league. Assuming that he's okay for training camp, there's a hamstring issue slowing him down. Could end up being the target leader for Houston. I know I said that about Schultz. Those guys might be one and two. There are five players who legitimately could be the target leader for the Texans. Schultz, Mechie, Nico, Tank, and Robert Woods. I'd be stunned if it was Tank.

Why? As the target leader for the Texans. They just run that short area slot target over and over and over offense. No way. It would surprise me.

Too much stock in rookies. Too much faith in rookies. Look who we're comparing him to. It's like we just said John Mechie. John Mechie has not played football yet. I think Dave convinced me to put Dalton Schultz ahead of Dalton Kincaid

in the Dalton matchup. In the Dalton versus Dalton matchup. I would... I'm glad that happened, but Dalton Schultz is going to get somewhere around 100 targets. Yep.

Yeah. Yeah. Whoever has that slot role should probably get around 100 targets, too, if they stay healthy. It could be Tank Dell. I think it's more likely for it to be Mechie because I think Mechie plays more.

But he's got to get healthy. He's got to get on the field. We're dying to see it. Are you interested in the number of targets per game? Traylon Burks had 10, 11, and 12. The three games after the midpoint of the season where he played with Ryan. I'm not interested. I already know it. And it's six, eight, and 12, the three games after the midpoint of the season where he played with Ryan. I'm not interested because I already know it.

And it's six, eight and six. Yes. 6.7. 20. How about, how about the last three games when he didn't have because he, because he had these garbage quarterbacks. It was one fewer target per game. 5.7.

So what's the ceiling? 6.7 targets per game. No, I.7. So what's his ceiling? 6.7 targets per game? No, I mean... Why would that be his ceiling? One target more from a rookie going to a sophomore when he's not going to play with Malik Willis and Dobbs? No. Yeah, right.

I mean, I'm a little... Rookies in small sample sizes, I'm kind of hesitant to use their stats. You have to be. And even rookies in full season. I mean, if the guy's good, he's going to take a statistical jump that you couldn't have exactly forecasted in his second year in a lot of cases.

I don't know that you could have expected Devontae Smith to finish as a top 12, or I think he was 12, something like that, wide receiver last year. But I was looking to see how many games in which these receivers that were going around round three had fewer than 50 yards and Devante Smith I think had five of them last year and

all of them came before the Dallas Goddard injury so we'll have to talk about that on another episode of Fantasy Football Today thanks to Dave and Heath tomorrow it's Heath and Dan Schneier with talk about bust-proof players.

Bust-proof. Tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. See you later.