Fantasy Football Today - Best Late-Round WRs! What History Tells Us and Our 2025 Favorites (07/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: July 9, 2025Bid on Draft-A-Thon items here! https://tiltify.com/@cbs-sports/fft-draftathon-2025 Vote for Fantasy Football Today in the "Sports" category: https://podcastawards.com/app/...signup Who are our favorite late-round wide receivers (4:00)? We're looking at all WRs drafted after Round 8 in a 12-team league and highlighting guys like Darnell Mooney, Keon Coleman and Emeka Egbuka. Also, what does history tell us about the best picks in this range (6:40)? We looked at the WR success stories from the last five seasons ... News and notes (18:50) on the Titans and Browns backfields and then it's back to the WR discussion. Calvin Ridley, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp (23:50) might be in a class of their own and Heath tells us why he is higher on Samuel and Kupp. Then we talk about Brandon Aiyuk, Jayden Reed, Egbuka and Josh Downs (30:30). Who stands out in this group? ... Moving further along in our average draft position, we analyze Jack Bech, Mooney, Stefon Diggs, Coleman and Michael Pittman (36:45). You'll hear some different takes on Coleman and Diggs in particular. And then we go through the rest of the WRs (42:40) that you can draft super late. Who are the hidden gems? ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fan To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
This episode is brought to you by Dazon.
For the first time ever, the 32 best soccer clubs from across the world are coming together to decide who the undisputed champions of the world are in the FIFA Club World Cup.
The world's best players, Messi, Holland, Kane and more are all taking part.
And you can watch every match for free on Dazon, starting on June 14th and running until July 13th.
Sign up now at dazon.com slash FIFA.
That's D-A-Z-N dot com slash FIFA.
When does fast grocery delivery
through Instacart matter most?
When your famous grainy mustard potato salad
isn't so famous without the grainy mustard.
When the barbecue's lit, but there's nothing to grill.
When the in-laws decide that,
actually, they will stay for dinner.
Instacart has all your groceries covered this summer, so download the app and get delivery
in as fast as 60 minutes.
Plus enjoy zero dollar delivery fees on your first three orders.
Service fees exclusions and terms apply.
Instacart, groceries that over-deliver.
This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
What a play!
Can you believe this?
No, I can't.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
This is gonna go the distance.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Wide Receiver Week continues here on Fantasy Football Today,
Wednesday, July 9th.
We've gotten through 40 wide receivers so far.
We've gone through eight rounds of average draft position in our PPR mock drafts, our
fans only PPR mock drafts.
So let's get through rounds nine and later.
And welcome to the show, everybody.
And welcome to the show, Heath Cummings and Jamie Eisenberg.
How we doing, Heath? how's it going over there?
How's Scott Fishbowl treating you?
Well, as I told you earlier in the week, I'm doing a live draft on Sunday,
so I don't have any players, but I've been living vicariously through Jamie's team,
which sounds like he's already won the league to me.
Oh yeah.
Is it better than my team?
Jamie, what's your team?
I mean, I hope he's
just judging rosters as opposed to us playing them out. So I love that. My team is Trey
McBride, Devon H. Anne and Chase Brown. No quarterbacks. Same here. No quarterbacks.
You don't have to start any quarterbacks in this league. I'd like to. I have okay, so
he's got McBride. Are you on Sleeper or MFL?
Sleeper.
Okay, so McBride, that's three and a half points
for tight end receptions, two and a half points
for all other receptions.
McBride, HN, Chase Brown, I have McCaffrey,
Lam, Nico Collins.
That's pretty impressive.
Who wins, Heath?
You know, your team is much better
than what I expected for you to say.
So I would, I do have Lam just ahead of Trey McBride.
I have McCaffrey.
Oh, I have a chant ahead of lamb.
I have McBride ahead of McCaffrey.
Who was your third?
Mc uh, Nico.
And I have chase Brown ahead of Nico in this story.
So Jamie beats you on all three players.
Okay.
Did you have any tough calls?
Yes. McBride, Big Bowers or McBride versus McCaffrey. I thought I had the 10th pick. I thought maybe I can get one of the tight ends coming back. The player with the, the person
with the 11th pick took Bowers in the first round and McBride in the second round. So I did not get
that hundred catch tight end, unfortunately. And you would have won the league if you'd just taken powers. Maybe now you're gonna finish sixth in your own
league.
All right. So in the CBS ADP, there are 40 wide receivers in
the first eight rounds, we're going to pick it up from there
with wide receiver 41. But in fantasy pros ADP, just so you
know, there are actually 50 wide receivers in the first eight
rounds. I'm going to ask you, who are your favorite late round picks?
And yeah, you can base it on CBS ADP and round nine or later.
So pick 97 or later.
But I think I'm going to make you say someone other than Calvin Ridley,
Jawan Jennings, Debo, Samuel and Cooper cup.
They are the next four wide receivers off the board in our ADP.
Calvin Ridley, Jawan Jennings, Debo Samuel, and Cooper Cup.
I know for Ridley, Jennings, those are easy calls in the, you know, more like round seven.
Debo and Cup for Heath are top 30 wide receivers in his rankings.
So I'm going to, I think those are sort of easy calls.
Calvin Ridley, Jennings, Debo, and Cup.
Jamie, if you had to go deeper than
that, who are some players that you've been drafting a lot? Draft a lot of Darnell Mooney.
Draft a lot of the guys on this list. Doesn't have to be these guys, but it can be. I like
Stefan Diggs. I like Keon Coleman. I think there's an opportunity for him to bounce back and hopefully,
you know, play like the receiver the the bills thought he was last year.
And maybe that he showed in the two games prior to the wrist injury.
So the guys that are listed here,
the three that I dropped a lot of are actually back to back to back of Darnell
Mooney, Stefan Diggs and Keon Coleman.
And I would say a Bucca and Josh Downs and probably like Mooney definitely.
Um, but if I was giving a different name, it would be Luther Burden. Um, I've, and Josh Downs and probably like Mooney definitely.
But if I was giving a different name, it would be Luther Burden.
I've cooled on Luther Burden a little bit
just because of his missed time this off season,
but I still think if he shows up day one of training camp
and is what Ben Johnson drafted him to be,
this could be a screening value.
Of the guys not listed here,
the one I dropped a lot of,
I mentioned them yesterday, I believe. Sedgertalman, dropped a lot of Sed guys not listed here. The one I dropped a lot of I mentioned them yesterday, I believe, said
you're coming. Draft a lot of said,
okay, that's pretty deep. That's that's even deeper, right? Yeah.
I would draft Christian Kirk at 146 overall. I like that. We're
looking at a new list here. If you're watching at youtube.com
slash fantasy football today. I love to maybe talk super late,
maybe 14 team leagues talk about Mike Williams at some point.
Jamie and I talked about him on FFT express.
I think he's kind of interesting, probably not going to work out, but
there's a case we've seen Quinton Johnson yet.
Uh, no, there is a hundred and almost 200th overall.
Um, I got it.
Got a really interesting Quinton Johnson trade offer.
Yeah.
What are you thinking?
But Isaiah likely on the block and a dynasty league and this
guy offered me Quinton Johnston with no other picks for Isaiah likely.
Is that so crazy?
I think I thought someone might want to speculate on what Isaiah likely is going to be
as opposed to just offering what
his value is if Mark Andrews plays 17 games and stays with the Ravens for the next three
years.
So hit the Clyde.
Hit the Clyde.
It's fine.
No, I'm just going to leave it sitting there.
And then if something ever happens to likely and he gets hurt, I'm gonna accept it.
That's cool.
Did you guys happen to read the research that I sent this morning?
I did glance at it, yes.
I saw the first handful of names in the rookies who performed well in this range.
All right, here we go.
Let's talk about this.
I looked at the wide receivers over the last five seasons.
I didn't think there would be that many, but there were who finished top 24 while being
drafted in round nine or later.
This is using fantasy pros PPR, 80 pre ADP over the last five years.
There's actually been overall or per game.
Both.
Most of them were, were overall and most of them were overall.
Some of them were just per game.
There were a handful of those tank.
Dell was one of them.
Antonio Brown was one of them when he played half a season for the Bucks. But most of them were overall, but
either overall or per game, there were 33 wide receivers who finished top 24 and they
were drafted 97th or later. One of the things I noticed is rookies. There are two every year.
One year there were four, but there are at least two every year and total of 12 rookies
of the 33 over the last five seasons.
Not necessarily being on great pass offenses, but pass attempts are key.
That was not the case last year, but the previous four years, 2020 to
2023, 75% of the wide receivers who were late round picks and finished top 24 either overall
or per game, 75% of them are on teams that threw 34.3 or more passes per game. So how
many teams you have projected for that Heath? Cause that's a lot. That's usually going to
be top 10, I think.
Yeah. I don't have that information readily available,
but I get that's 578 pass attempts over 17 games.
I'll have an answer after you asked Jamie a question,
how many teams I have projected for that,
but you've just reaffirmed my love for a Mecha Ibuka.
He's a rookie. He's on a high volume pass offense.
It's perfect.
And last year there were nine teams that averaged
more than 34.3 pass attempts per game.
Now I will say last year was the exception of this rule.
Only, I want to say three out of nine of the wide receivers
who were drafted late and finished top 24
were on these high volume pass offenses.
But if we look at the last five years,
it is 64% of these players on high volume pass offenses. But if we look at the last five years, it is 64% of these players on high
volume pass offenses, and 75% from 2020 to 2023. The very, very best of this group, the elites of
the late round receivers who finished top 24, they were all rookies in the last five years.
Justin Jefferson in his rookie year, Pukin Nakua, Brian Thomas Jr. They were the only ones who were absolute stars.
And then there was this other category of player, Jamie,
who-
Mekongi wasn't in that?
He, yeah, well, yeah.
He was like wide receiver 20 per game.
So I didn't, I mean, he is on this list of 33.
I didn't consider him one of the true elites.
Gotcha. There was this, I don't know if there's any of these guys on this list of 33. I didn't consider him one of the true elites. Got you.
Um, there was this, I don't know if there's any of these guys on this, uh, this year that
you could think of, but guys like Hunter Renfro, Jalen Waddle and his rookie year, Michael
Pittman, Darnell Mooney, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Adam Thielen, last year, Cortland Sutton
and Jerry Judy.
A lot of these guys didn't finish top 24 per game,
but they outperformed their ADP. They're usually top 30 per game. They just dominated targets.
They either had really bad... Yeah, someone's asked me to clarify target hog. This is what
I'm talking about. They either had really bad options on the team with them, like Garrett Wilson, um, and Chris Olavi, or they had injuries
like Brian Thomas, Jr. For example, benefited from Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram getting
hurt. Pukin Akua benefited from Cooper cup missing five games that year. Um, but yeah,
I don't know a guy that maybe won't be great on a per target basis, but could get 130 140
targets because
there's just garbage around him.
In this range?
Yeah, anywhere 97th or later.
Ridley certainly qualifies.
Yeah.
Cup, I think qualifies.
Well, he wouldn't be because JSN would be too much of an impetus.
Oh, you said injury occurs. I don't, well, he wouldn't be because JSN would be too much of an injury.
Yes.
But guys that start the year with this opportunity to just dominate the targets on their team
downs.
You think so with Warren?
I mean, he's a rookie tight end digs for sure.
Right.
Yep.
Maybe.
Okay.
Maybe I don't know. This whole digs playing outside.
I'm not sure he's going to be a huge target hog playing outside.
He at least has the possibility here to dominate.
Right.
Want to go to the next list?
Producer striker?
No, no shape.
I have seven teams projected for at least 578 passes.
Unfortunately, Tampa Bay is not one of them.
Okay. You don't know who they are? They could. I have seven teams projected for at least 578 passes. Unfortunately Tampa Bay is not one of them.
Okay.
Do you know who they are?
They could, yeah, in one moment,
let's just take a look at this list here.
Is there anyone here that could rise above
and just dominate targets without an injury?
I don't think so.
I mean, one of the Texans guys could.
Sure, if there's an injury.
Well, I mean, even if there's just concentrated targets to one of them,
you know, so it's Nico and one of these guys.
Okay, yeah, just get a lot of targets.
I just I'm going to think about think about that.
You know, we want we like rookies in this range.
I don't know about this year because it's not a great rookie class.
We we like targets volume and we like teams that pass the ball a lot.
All right, Heath, who are the teams that you have passing the most?
volume and we like teams that pass the ball a lot. All right, Heath, who are the teams that you have passing the most?
I have the Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, Vikings, Cowboys, and then probably two surprises,
Raiders and Browns.
Jack Besh, Cedric Tillman. These are guys that I know Tillman is someone that Jamie mentions. He drafts a lot.
Very late. All right. Would you agree as we evaluate these players that we're going to
talk about today that Calvin Ridley, Jawan Jennings, Debo Samuel and Cooper Cup
are probably not going to make it to round nine and or at least shouldn't make it to round nine?
I'd be surprised. You know, I know this isn't the biggest
sample size of drafts, you know, we're doing our best to compile
early average app position. But I would I would be shocked if
these two at least least two of these guys, you know, whether
it's I think Ridley is the easy one, whether it's Jennings or
whether it's the bow or whether it's cup, like, it'd be a surprise if they're not all but two of them probably in the range
above the show that we did yesterday.
Yeah, I would not be surprised if Jennings is still round nine.
I wouldn't be surprised for Cup either Heath because he's actually surprisingly wide receiver
50 on fantasy pros.
Yeah, wide receiver 44 in our ADP. Well, and if like, there's also obviously things that can happen
during training camp. Like if he's struggling with not being fully healthy at
training camp, then he's not going to be one of our favorites in this range.
Anyway, um, Devo, maybe there's a few more pictures of him and
people continue to think that he's too heavy.
And so he stays in this range.
If there's a ton of positive buzz about Ricky Pearsall,
then Jennings could definitely stay down here.
Okay. Would you consider,
how many of these four would you consider steals
if you got them in round nine?
Ridley, Jennings, Debo, Cup?
All four.
Two for me. The first
two. Yeah. Where are you taking Debo and cup? Just slightly
ahead of this, but I wouldn't consider them steals. Gotcha.
Okay. All right. So we'll spend a lot of time on the other guys
on this list, and we can talk more about them as well. Hey,
listen, it's a it's that time of year again with podcast awards.
We are a nominee in the best sports podcast category
in the People's Choice Podcast Awards
and we appreciate all you've done for us.
We won this award last year,
so we're looking for a repeat here.
I know I ask a lot of you guys,
we talk about Draftathon all the time
and go vote for this and go vote for that.
So you guys and girls out there, it's so appreciated on our end, all the work that you do for us.
We're a big FFT family here, but what we'd love for you to do now is to nominate us.
Go to podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. I have a feeling if you just go to podcastawards.com,
you can find the links to it and scroll down to the best sports category.
The whole process takes less than 60 seconds.
And I'll include a link at the top of the episode description as well.
So please vote for fantasy football today.
In the for the best sports category in the people's choice podcast.
It's a very funny process because we've obviously been we've nonstop podcasts, like we never take a break and take shows off.
But this is like the start of the season for us. And so like,
you know, like, if it does feel like a little bit of a reset,
and so like, hey, vote for us for what we've done so far. I
know what we're about to do, which is, you know, crush our
competition, which we usually do. But it's like, hey, vote, vote ahead of everything that's coming your way.
Yeah, I know. It's it's a weird time for sure.
But, you know, it's a good time is we have a lot of excited people here for fantasy football.
Maybe if it were in November and somebody was like three and ten, they wouldn't
over us. Everyone's undefeated right now.
The other thing is we only have one mailbag slot left.
Go ahead and claim it at tinyurl.com slash 2025 FFT, tinyurl.com slash 2025 FFT, $50
donation to St. Jude. Ask your question. It will be read on Friday show. We're going to
take a quick break and come back with some news and notes and more on fantasy football
today. Welcome back folks. All right, so let's get into some news items.
Brian Callahan, coach of the Titans.
What do you think, just quick question.
If we asked all of our audience,
who's the head coach of the Tennessee Titans?
What percentage do you think would get it?
90.
That's a nice thing to say.
Yeah, I think 60.
He's just kind of a random coach.
You don't think that our audience can name all every NFL head coach?
If they had, if they had one of those sheets of paper that had like the coach on the left
side and team on the right side, they could draw the line.
So Adam, if we gave you like a 10 second clock per team, how confident are you that you go
32 for 32?
Like with the pressure of the moment on air?
A hundred percent.
Okay.
And we are not doing that right now, but a hundred percent.
Striker get it ready.
Who do you think I wouldn't get?
I don't know.
I just think he'd probably have a brain fart at some point in those 32 teams.
Yeah, I'm having a brain fart with the Colts right now.
All right.
Let's, let's go.
Oh, so Brian Callahan, that's the news item.
He once again talked about splitting the workload among Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears.
It does seem like he wants some, obviously a split, but something
fairly close to 50-50 if I'm just trying to read the between the lines or read the lines.
Jamie, what do you think? I mean, Pollard was basically two points per game better when Spears
either left the game early or did not play. And so, you know, that's a big thing if you're looking
at Tony Pollard as a potential starter. I think he's a strong flux play.
Spears missed significant time last year.
I think it was five games last year, left five games,
and did not play in the total of those games.
And on the flip side of that, Spears
is one of the better value picks.
If he's going to get a decent enough workload,
he had five games last year where
he was very successful when his touches were up. He had one games last year where he was very successful
when his touches were up.
He had one game where Pollard didn't play
and he had over 90 rushing yards and 23 total touches,
I believe it was.
So I wouldn't reach for Pollard.
I think once you get past, at least for me,
once you get past the rookies of like Judkins
and Caleb Johnson, RJ Harvey, those guys,
I think Pollard should go in the range of, depending how you feel about these
guys, but like Pacheco and Aaron Jones and, um, and some of those guys, you
know, probably before like the, the Brian Robinson's and Ramandres
Demonson of the world, but I don't, I don't think Pollard should be drafted
as a starter in a two running back league.
I, I do think that we're probably drafting him closer to what he is.
If Spears plays 17 games, I think there's, I think he's probably a high end
flex if he and Spears both stay healthy.
And both of those guys, if one of them misses time is a great value at
where they're being drafted.
Strange that Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears.
It's strange that Spears was the goal lineback.
It was so few carries that you don't know if it was fluke or not.
When they got to the three yard line or closer, I don't think Pollard had any carries in the
games that Spears was healthy.
So it was, I can't sit here and say Spears is the goal lineback, but that's what it was
last year with Tennessee's head coach, whoever that is.
I think the one thing that's encouraging for both is that this offense should be better,
you know?
So if the offense is better, maybe there are more goal opportunities for Spears and Pollard,
you know, and just Kim Ward, if he can perform better than Will Levis, which isn't a huge
ask, then, you know, we just get more opportunities for both these guys.
What about the Cardinals, Adam?
Oh yeah, it's the guy from the Eagles.
Damn, oh God, it's really...
Oh, of course.
What the hell is his name?
John the Ganon.
I will say, to be fair to Adam,
when we were talking about somebody yesterday,
maybe Marvin Harrison,
I did also forget Gannon's name.
And if you heard me when I answered, I said, I spoke to someone from the Cardinals coaching
staff.
Yeah, I did.
I didn't know that.
Which was Gannon.
I don't know why you said that, but now I know.
Jonathan Gannon, very anonymous.
I did for a moment.
I was like, it's Gannon, but I don't want to say it because I don I want to be wrong. It's a two Eagles guys, the two Eagles coordinators. I
can't, I could stump them. Okay. Dak Prescott says he's full go after the hamstring surgery.
And Zach Jackson of the athletic has recently written that Jerome Ford probably opens the
season as the starter at running back. And that's a two rookie quarterbacks Dylan Gabriel and Chedur Sanders could battle for a roster spot
but does this report about Jerome Ford make you hesitant on Quinchon Judkins
who's going 67th overall in our ADP in between Caleb Johnson and David
Montgomery Heath? No I think that Jerome Ford will open camp as the starting running
back and Quinch on Judkins will quickly.
Dispersed of that notion.
I, there was a guy, they didn't love Jerome Ford at times last year.
They were trying to find a different guy to give the ball to cause he's
got a little bit of that hit a home run or lose three yards mentality.
Oh, they never give him big work. They just how many how many like 18 carry games does he have?
But yeah, 2023 when Chubb first got hurt. I feel like I'll look I mean, it doesn't really matter
because he's not going to get big work this year. But he's a guy that they kind of I feel like they
kind of capped his carries what your 2023. I he, he had one game with more than 17 carries.
They're also bad.
I mean, they're not going to get a lot of carries on the trailing.
He in a win, he had 15 carries and a win, he had 10 and a win, he had 17 and when he
had 11, 12, just, okay, whatever.
Uh, and that's it for the news and notes.
Let's go to the late round wide receivers
in round nine or later.
And Ridley, Jennings, Debo and Cup
are the first four on this list.
Now, Heath, I wanna go to you because you have Debo 29th.
Jamie has him 44th, Dave 41st.
You have Cup 24th, Jamie 38th, Dave 43rd.
You are definitely the high guy on Debo Samuel and Cooper cup.
And you like Debo, you like cup the best at 24th and Debo 29th.
So make your case.
Yeah.
I think I probably need to lower cup a little bit, but it's so hard for me.
Two.
And I am the guy who says if a wide receiver shows you he's falling off,
believe him, I don't know how much health had to do with it last year because the first nine
games that Cooper cup played last year, he was on pace for to be Cooper cup,
170 targets and 1200 yards.
And I don't think that Jackson Smith and Jig was going to prevent cup from seeing
a lot of targets because there's not really anybody else that they're going to
throw the ball to very much in that offense, especially in the receiving core.
And Debo is kind of the same situation.
I think he perfectly, he and Terry McLaurin work so well in terms of complementing each
other with what McLaurin does downfield and what Debo does close to the line of scrimmage.
We've seen, I mean, we joked about Cliff Kingsbury and the horizontal air raid
when he was in Arizona, because he does like to have those.
He tried to turn Rondale more into Devo Samuel at one point.
So I, I think the fact they went out and acquired this guy, they have a plan to use
him, maybe similar in some ways that areas of the field, they used Earth and Echler
last year, and they don't have any other wide receivers that I think deserve any targets.
Okay, he could work up was the number 23 wide receiver in fantasy last year
Per game, so I thought that was interesting, but he I think let's see he had a he had a very respectable
Twenty four point two percent target per out run rate. It's very good with Puka on the field.
And that's including the last three games where he just like
mysteriously disappeared from the game plan.
Right. And then with Puka off the field though,
it was probably insane.
It was 36.2% target per out run rate.
He did make a lot of his hay in a few games without Puka
or Puka leaving early, but yeah, wide receiver 23 per game. Jamie, you're not feeling it with the cup.
I'm just concerned about the offense in general. I mean, we spent a lot of time in the last
two days talking about JSN and his potential pitfalls because of the Seahawks wanting to
run the ball more and Sam Darnold not necessarily being even at Geno Smith's level because of
the change in system. So I'm curious, Heath, cause I know you have JSN in the, in the top 20
somewhere, do you, do you like the passing offense for Seattle or is it
just more the concentrated targets for those two guys?
It's entirely the concentrated targets.
I have Ken Walker third on the team and targets at 72.
I don't have any wide receivers over 56.
And I don't think that Noah Fant or Elijah Arroyo are going to have
an enormous role in the offense.
So it's, it's definitely concentration.
I only have Seattle projected for 557 pass attempts, which is probably
pretty close to average and just over 4,000 yards in 17 games.
So my, my, my concern with Cup is the injury track record.
I mean, yes, he was good prior to the last three games.
He also missed time for the last three seasons,
I believe, right?
Since 2021 when he had the triple crown,
22, 23, 24, he's been banged up.
He's getting at the age where you gotta worry
about a complete fall off.
So to your point, Heath, you know, was the last three games more of just getting phased
out of targets because he was still playing, but was he getting phased out of targets or
was he hurt or what was the deal there?
And then you have this potentially pathetic passing game that we could see in Seattle.
And if they do struggle, like did they turn to Millrow at some point, which could be awful
for both guys.
You know, if you're getting this mobile quarterback who may not support
You know two targets let alone maybe even supporting one. So I think for me like cup is
Should be in this range, you know, if you want to put him slightly ahead
I have no problem with that
But like once you start to get to you know, like wide receiver 40
I think is where he comes to play and Debo I've kind of moved up and down, you know several spots
in in the rankings
I don't want to obviously buy into the out of shape narrative because he's kind of been this
you know way for the last couple of years, but
You know how much of his falloff last year was again byproduct of offense
You know you were to say going into last year Christian McCaffrey is only going to play four games and
Brandon I use gonna mishap the season and I think everybody would have signed up for Debo Samuel probably in the first three or four rounds
And he certainly did not produce like that
And so to go to an offense that should feature him like I agree with everything he'd said
I don't know how much though we we see a Zach Ertz fall off, you know,
for an older tight end, but coming off a very strong season. Maybe a bounce back for Austin
Echler, who, you know, missed some time last year, had, you know, was only on pace for
50 catches. I don't know if he can be better than that, but wouldn't surprise me. And so,
if Debo's not going to get carries to the same level that he was getting in San Francisco,
and that's to me a big concern, is he enough of a threat as a complete pass catcher?
And I don't think he's gonna get phased out
of the run game, but if is he enough of a pass catcher
that you wanna draft him as a starter,
even in three receiver league.
So, whether he's like in the late 30s, early 40s,
that's probably as high as I'll go
if I continue to readjust that range.
I'd rather have him as a key reserve.
And this is kind of, again, the range I'm drafting them in.
I think that the key thing that Jamie said there is carries.
He's basically been at three carries per game for the last four years.
He was at 2.8 last year.
Um, Kingsbury did use Rondale more a little bit in the, in the, uh, running game in Arizona.
I don't know if that will continue.
I'm projecting the Debo's carries per game are pretty similar to what they were in San
Francisco, but if they're not, then I think he's, I've got him too high and this is probably
about right.
And I'll just say, make this excuse for Debo.
He had 19 targets in weeks one and two. And then he
missed week three with a calf injury. Later in the year, he had a wrist injury. He had
pneumonia-like symptoms that put him in the hospital. And then he ended up playing that
week, I think. And then he had rib and oblique injuries. He had so many ailments, Deebo Samuel,
in 2024. All right. Moving down the list here, we've got Brandon Iuk, we've got Jaden Reed. Oh,
Jaden Reed is fascinating to me. We've got a Mecca Obuka and Josh
Downs. Iuk Reed, Obuka Downs. Of those four, does someone really
jump out at you, Heath?
Of those four, does someone really jump out at you Heath?
I mean, I think that there are so such different cases almost across the board.
If I had to bet who's going to score the most PPR fantasy points, but it doesn't matter if they matter for your fantasy team, I would probably take downs.
If you tell me that I like IU, cause at some point this year going to be fully himself,
then he'll probably be the best per game once that happens. But how many games does he play
where he's still hampered by the recovery?
It book is the most exciting to me from this group, just because I thought he came into the NFL is
maybe the most ready prospect in the class and Tampa Bay has done nothing to dispel that, that notion so far.
Um, and then I, I am not really very excited about Jayden Reid.
Why?
I, he's never really been able to con, command a consistent target share
without a first round wide receiver. And then the team went and drafted a first round wide receiver.
And then the team went and drafted a first round wide receiver.
They did.
I mean, you could, you could argue that that offsets Christian Watson, who was
an early second round pick and is out for now with an ACL injury.
Christian Watson hasn't played that much of anything to impact
Jayden Reed in the first place.
much of it to impact Jayden Reed in the first place. Well, in, in 2023, Jayden Reed was much better
without Christian Watson on the field in 2024.
It wasn't really a huge factor, but in, in 2023,
Watson played about half the year, I think.
And, and yeah, he had a 29.2% target per outrun rate
with Watson off the field compared to
18.4% with him on the field.
So it made a big difference.
Look, obviously they need to throw more.
Okay.
They threw 479 passes last year, the Packers, and 2023, they threw 581.
So you're talking about 100 pass attempts, basically less.
They got to be throwing more than 479 times.
Even at five 81, if he's 18% target per route run guy, that's not very exciting.
I was with Watson on the field.
Okay.
So you're saying with Golden and Golden might command more targets and Watson Watson was
more of a big play deep, deep a doc guy.
So I get it.
That's a problem.
What's exciting about Reed though is he runs the ball.
He had 163 yards and a touchdown last year rushing in 17 games. He did so in 2023 as well
with 119 yards and two rushing touchdowns in 16 games. And he's great per route. His yards per
route run, his metrics, his yak, he's an exciting player and he can make big plays. So he doesn't need heavy
target volume to be, you know, he's efficient. So Jamie, I think you said you take Reed over Golden.
I think you said that yesterday, right? I have them ranked in almost back to back. So yeah,
I do slightly prefer Reed over Golden right now. That could change in camp. For me, there, you know,
you look at Reed and downs of these guys and there's the the
past attempts are clearly an issue for Reed if they do get back to that 2023
level I think Reed's gonna be one of the better value picks and if Daniel Jones
is the starter I think Josh Downs has a chance to be going into the season a
better fantasy option if Daniel Jones is named the starter he'll move up in my
rankings as well it wouldn't shock me if Richardson's better because of the work that he's done
this off season spending time with Josh Allen's throwing coach and
trying to work on his mechanics.
So it could be a moot point of which quarterback benefits Downs the most.
But clearly we saw Downs played such a different level last year when it was
flat called by comparison to Richardson.
So he's one of these guys that may just be one of the receivers we talk about that
doesn't have the quarterback or passing game to be at a better level.
And just to throw his name in there, Michael Pittman,
as we saw two years ago with Gardner Minshew at times last year with Flacco.
How much of it was the back injury for him that he was really struggling last year and
not performing at a high level?
There was talk about him shutting it down, you know, at one point during the season, then he played through this.
And, you know, it's not like he's a slouch and going to go away.
And you mentioned, Adam, that Tyler Warren now being there, that's a potential problem for both those guys.
So it's a fascinating group.
Abouka is, you know, I agree with a lot of what he said.
It's a matter of how many targets will we
get, how much playing time will we get.
When you look at everybody healthy there, as we talked about yesterday, Jaylen McMillan
is still going to get opportunities.
And obviously if Evans and Godwin are healthy, it would be very surprising if they're not
the target leaders on this team.
So is Abouka in his role, does he have enough opportunities and chances to be someone you
can consider a starter, or even be one of these next guys that can break out in this rookie, based on your research,
the rookies that have come out of this range and done well.
I'm certainly hopeful, but I couldn't, and I don't know how this will reflect once we
get to August and you find out that Diggs is healthy and looking at Mooney, for example,
for me,
I couldn't envision doing a draft where I'm taking right now
Ibuka and Luther Burton over Darnon, Mooney,
and Stephane Diggs.
Say that again, you couldn't imagine.
I can't right now draft, I mean, you tell me Godwin's out,
then it's a different conversation for Ibuka,
but we're saying the same thing to the Bears guys,
but to take the two rookies over Darnon, Mooney,
and Stephane Diggs, I couldn't do that.
Abouka and Burden.
Yeah, I mean, yeah.
Diggs's ADP is crazy low compared to where he is on Fantasy Pros.
All right, so that's Reed, Abouka, Downs and Burden.
Downs was almost five points per game better with Flacco than he was with Richardson.
He averaged 10.7 PPR points per game with Richardson. He averaged 15.4 with Flacco. And Flacco was on pace for 4,507 yards and 29 touchdowns
on 36 pass attempts per game in that stretch. All right. So then we got this next group here.
We got another rookie, Jack Besh. I'm going to read the rest of this list here that you're
looking at. Besh, Mooney, Diggs, Coleman, Pittman.
I feel like Jamie, you're going to echo this, but I love that three, that trio of Mooney,
Diggs, Coleman.
Those are the ones that catch my eye of Besh, Mooney, Diggs, Coleman, Pittman.
Mooney, Diggs, Coleman would be on a lot of my teams if I could get them in the 11th round.
Yeah.
And Besh is being drafted too.
I like them coming out of the draft. It sounds like he struggled a little bit in many camp and OTAs. I
wouldn't necessarily make that the end all be all for him because he could still, you know, bounce
back in, in camp and have an opportunity to be the second receiver of their opposite Jacobi Myers. But
again, to take him over those three guys behind him, four guys behind him, you know, not, not to,
you know, disrespect Michael not to, you know,
disrespect Michael Pittman as well, but like that, that just shouldn't be happening.
Keith strong feelings on Besh, Mooney, Diggs, Coleman or Pittman.
I like Mooney a lot more than the other three.
I, um, he, he would be my favorite by, by a pretty large margin. I don't know.
What over digs.
Yes.
I, and digs might change my mind in training camp, but he did tear
his ACL last year, right?
He did.
And he's 32.
We do get worried about young guys in year one, like Rashid Rice had a
different knee procedure and we're still discounting him a
little bit because of an ACL and Diggs is on a new team. And there's, I don't want to say there's
off field concerns with Diggs, but I think there's at least some concerns that we don't have with
other wide receivers might be contributing to his lower ADP. And it sounds like DiMario Douglas is
going to be the team's primary slot wide receiver. So Diggs is going to have to go back outside.
I don't necessarily like the idea of a 32 year old coming off
of an ACL that has to try to beat the other team's
number one corner every week.
Okay. That's, it's a good point.
Did you guys think that Keon Coleman has boom potential
could have a real breakout?
Yes.
I think if Ke on Coleman booms, it's going to be like in a James Jones kind of way. He scores 10 touchdowns and has 750 yards receiving.
I think so.
And I think he's, I think he's, well, I hope for more receiving yards than that, but I
think he's going to be a bit of a, of an end zone target.
He's kind of, you know, he's the big body guy.
Maybe it's Kincaid, but yeah, I mean, I feel the same way.
He's going to have to catch some touchdowns.
I, and this is again, I'm probably the low guy on Coleman.
So maybe don't put too much into this, but I, like, I, I think I've got more hope for
Quinton Johnston than I do for Keon Coleman.
Oh, you should take him.
For Isaiah likely.
Yeah.
I think the thing with the Coleman profile you're hoping for is, you know, Cortland Sutton,
you know, guy that's going to be a thousand yards, 70 catches and score 10 touchdowns.
That's a huge ask, obviously.
The way that this receiving corps is shaping up, Josh Palmer is getting hype right now.
I know some workout videos of Coleman trying to improve.
I go back to the two games last year before he had the wrist injury against Miami.
It was they just acquired Amari Cooper.
There was the famous highlight that was circulating at a time where he's on the field
telling Amari Cooper what play to run, um,
the first game that they played together.
But those two games before he got hurt,
like that might've been the taking off point.
And then he missed some time with the wrist injury and I don't think he was ever
healthy. So to what extent he can get to, you know, again, um,
the, the, the Sutton compass is obviously rose-colored glasses to try and see if he can get to that level, but that's the type of player he's going to be. He's never going
to be a high-volume target reception guy. He just doesn't profile like that. Like you said,
touchdowns are going to save him. Playing with the quarterback that he plays with,
clearly the offense changed a little bit last year
where they didn't need one guy to dominate targets
to be that alpha receiver.
But I think that's what they drafted Keon Coleman to be.
And so if he can live up to it, like you said, Adam,
it could be Kincaid, it could be, you know,
Shakira just continues to be the safe, reliable option.
But I mean, my gosh, Keon Coleman's upside is huge.
And Elijah Moore got a little bit of a positive talk too.
All right.
So that's Keon Coleman and we're going to take one more break here on fantasy
football today and we'll wrap it up with some more late round picks after this.
Tomorrow, we're going to have Alfredo Brown on the show to talk about some of
his favorite values.
And then on Friday, we'll have your, we'll have a mailbag, uh, which will be
some of the, which will be some of
the which will be all 10 of the St. Jude draft-a-thon questions but also emails and Apple podcast
questions so excited for the next two days.
Okay who is next on the list?
We've got let's go Trey.
All right you tell me do you like them round 12 or later Trey Harris rookie for the Chargers
and Kyle Williams rookie for the Patriots.
Yes.
Okay.
Yeah.
I think I, I think I have Kyle Williams higher.
I'm trying to find like these guys are not in my top 60 at wide receiver.
Um, but I do prefer Williams, I think.
Then you got two Texans, Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins. So we have three
rookies in these first four picks of this range, uh, basically round 12, uh,
Trey Harris and Kyle Williams and Jayden Higgins plus the veteran Christian Kirk.
Who's your favorite?
Right?
I would, he's my favorite of these four, but that it's almost like I'm ignoring my advice
on the, on the rookies.
But at the same time, I just feel like Christian Kirk is still a solid player.
If you put them in the right role, I think the Texans will.
I'd take, I'd take them first on the, of those four.
Would you?
Yes, I would take him ahead of bash. I would take him ahead of bird and I would take him ahead on those four. Would you? Yes, I would take him ahead of Besh. I would take him ahead of Bird, and I would take him ahead of
Ibuka right now. I have Kirk ahead of Trey Harris, ahead of Kyle Williams, ahead of Kian Coleman,
but pretty close to where he's being ranked here.
That's a tough one. Would you take for Jamie,
would you take Keon Coleman or Christian Kirk?
I think I have them almost ranked back to back.
I would lean toward Coleman just based on upside,
but similar to how we discussed some of this yesterday,
it's probably based on how I build my team.
Ceiling is clearly in Coleman's favor,
floor is in Kirk's favor.
Do you think Christian Kirk is significantly more valuable in full
PPR than half or non?
I don't know significantly, but yes, he's more valuable there.
I don't, I think that's part of the reason that I also don't have Kirk.
Um, very high is just, I don't think if like Nico, if Nico gets hurt, then yes.
But if Nico's healthy, I think he's going to have 140 targets and nobody
else has much more than a hundred.
And so it's hard to be a good PPR thread if you're not a high target guy.
So who's the head coach of the Texans?
D'Amico Ryan's now.
D'Amico told me that he's going to be the slot receiver.
Kirk's going to be the slot receiver.
Um, that, that will hopefully help with his, you know, rapport with CJ Stroud. D'Amico told me that he's going to be the slot receiver. Kirk's going to be the slot receiver.
That will hopefully help with his rapport with CJ Stroud.
And that's when he's been at his best when he's been in the slot.
They're not that run heavy of a team. I don't think they are a run heavy team.
So let's see. No, I don't have them. I'm just about league average.
I got a new offensive coordinator, so we don't really know. Please don't ask me his name. Cedric Tillman,
Xavier Leagate, Rashid Shahid, and then pre-agent Keenan Allen are the next four. We got Marvin
Mims, Josh Palmer with the Bills, Rashad Bateman. Again, Cedric Tillman, Xavier Leigh, Rashid Jaheed, Kenan Allen, Marvin Mims, Josh Palmer,
Rashad Bateman, Pat Bryant, rookie for the Broncos, Wondell Robinson, Savion Williams,
rookie for the Packers.
Heath, anyone jump out of you in that as a big group?
Anyone you like?
Yeah, I'd like to address some, some handcuffed running backs.
Can I get a second quarterback?
Um, maybe, maybe Anthony Richardson.
Um, it, it, Tillman is, is definitely my favorite.
He's the one guy that I might get excited about drafting.
It was pretty good.
Jamie, you've talked about him a lot, so he was pretty good.
I guess.
Is he your favorite on this list too of the, after the Christian Kirk group?
Yeah, by far
you know a lot depends on how many games Joe Flacco starts because I think that's
important for the entire passing game in Cleveland and you do have to factor in the Deontay Johnson move and how much he'll
potentially play but I think
Assuming Flacco starts, let's say 10 plus games
I'm not too worried about Deontay Johnson because I think tell me what he showed in those three games the first three when Amari
Cooper was traded two of those were with or two and a half I guess were with
Jamis Winston like he's got an opportunity here to you know
Be a full-time player and we just haven't seen that for the majority scurry suffered concussion
I think it was five games following the trade
So he had three really good ones, one mediocre
one, and then he got hurt in the fifth one. And I don't think he played again the rest
of the season. So there's just a chance for him here, you know, for a team that the only
significant move they made for their receiving core, you know, unless you're counting Harold
Fanon as a significant move, was Deontay Johnson. And that's not something I think you should fear at this point.
You know, he certainly could take away targets, but again,
fearing it when you're drafting Tillman at 158 or, you know, 150 overall,
it's like, it's a free spot. You know, you can move on from him easily.
So the other guy that, that kind of is intriguing to me is Marvin Mims.
You know, you're getting more,
there was a report in one of the Denver publications that he's going to be the
second receiver. So we'll see what Pat Bryant does
There was a little bit of buzz for for Franklin as well, you know, Troy Franklin maybe he has a bounce back
Opportunity here also but memes the last you know
Ladder part of the season was finally getting chances to play and you saw the production, you know
So I know he's gonna be value valuable as a return guy for them and maybe get some gadget plays.
But just in terms of upside, Rashad Bateman is kind of in a similar boat too.
He'll score touchdowns.
He's better in best ball than redraft.
But these guys are just intriguing late round flyers.
If they get opportunities, I think they could be successful.
I feel like Wanda Robinson could be a streamer in PPR.
There you go.
I do.
Yeah, look, he's a short area slot guy.
He's a safety valve and caught 93 passes last year for a whopping 699 yards.
Unbelievably bad.
But yeah, I'm not drafting Wanda Robinson, but I think he could be a streamer.
It's a free space. In P think he could be a streamer.
It's a free space. In PPR, it's a free space. Do we have any more names? Do we have another list? We do. Romeo Dobbs,
Jalen Noll, rookie for the Texans, Jalen McMillan for the Bucks, Marquise Brown for the Chiefs,
Adam Thielen for the Panthers, Quinton Johnston for the Chargers, Adonai Mitchell, second year
guy for the Colts, Jalen Royals, rookie for the Chiefs.
DeMario Douglas for the Pats.
Couple of Steelers, Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson.
And Jalen Coker for the Panthers.
I don't know.
Dobbs is,
Dobbs is a good guy.
There we go, Romeo Dobbs is a bet.
I like Dobbs and Johnston better than several of the guys on the prior list.
I think Brown and Royals are fine dart throws and DeMario Douglas kind of fits in that one
Dale Robinson conversation maybe.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Douglas is my favorite based on the value.
You like Douglas better than Dobbs?
I do.
Yeah.
I think just the crowd of receiving core now in
Green Bay makes me a little nervous. You know, Dobbs has been so touchdown dependent. And so if
they're not going to increase their past attempts, and now you're giving Matthew golden chances and
maybe saving on Williams chances and still Jayden Reed and still done to me and wicks for what it's
worth. Like it's just, you know, you can't keep talking up Tucker Kraft and not expecting him to
get a bigger role too.
So it's like, if they're not going to be back to the 580 level, like, or two years ago, like,
where's all this coming from? You know, who's, who's going to be, I would love to see them trade
one of these guys, you know, so Dobbs is the most likely candidate to get moved.
It kind of seems like he's the guy that, that maybe they trust a little bit more and the other
guys are a lot more exciting.
It's interesting.
If you look at their targets from last year, it was 76 for wicks, 75 for read,
72 for Dobbs, 70 for craft.
Those other three guys all played 17 games.
Dobbs played 13.
Yeah.
It's a, he was one of my favorite late round picks before the before the Matthew golden draft
pick. But when Watson is coming off a torn ACL and it was just basically Dobbs and Reed and
Wicks and stuff like that, I, I like Dobbs. He's not a terrific player and he's not exciting like
Jayden Reed, but you know, he's, he's good. He's solid. Okay. I know he's older, but if,
if you're looking at that sort of strategy of like who they trust, like when feeling to be the same guy
might be
feeling. Yeah. God, he is super old, though. What is he 34?
Yeah, he was why no singers do well at that age.
Another another example of a guy that no, I know I was worried about based on age and missed a lot
of time with his hamstring injury, but when he came back those final seven games, he was
extremely productive.
Feeling his average right around 60 yards per game, two straight years at ages 30, basically
ages 33 and 34.
Yeah, not basically.
He's going to be 35 next month, but that's amazing.
60 yards per game might not sound like a lot.
It's pretty solid.
And for a 33 and 34 year old on the Carolina Panthers, the last two years to
average 60 yards per game, extremely impressive.
He is his whole run.
I mean, you think about what the path he had to take just to get to the NFL
through his age, 25 season, he had 281 yards receiving through his age 25 season.
He currently has 8,300 yards receiving incredibly.
There's coach Adam.
Can Alice come on now?
Uh, I don't really like this game.
Yes, I can.
I can name all of them.
I don't appreciate it.
You've already missed two.
No, I didn't.
I missed one, but I would have gotten it 100%.
I can name all 32 head coaches.
That's insulting.
Here we go.
You have five seconds.
Name all the coaches in the NFC West, go.
Gannon, Shanahan, McVeigh, McDonald.
Good job.
Good. Thank you. Come on, McDonald. Good job. Good.
Thank you.
Come on.
This is too easy.
This is insulting.
I don't know that I could name more than 10 basketball coaches.
That would be...
You like the next head coach?
No.
Mostly because I don't think they should have fired Tibbs.
It just didn't make any sense.
Hey, Mike Williams coming off easy.
You're removed from the ACL. He was a very good
player before the ACL injury. It's back in familiar ground
here. 14 team leagues wouldn't mind taking a shot on waves.
Unfortunately, he's old. Was he 32? Come on, he's 31. But deep
sleep. Yeah,
I just find it hard on this offense that just brought in two
running backs, especially
the caliber of running backs that they brought in that McConkie is still going to be as hopefully
elite as he is. And then you have Trey Harris, Quinton Johnston and Mike Williams, and they
all have a chance to be somewhat productive. Like it's just hard to buy plus the tight
ends.
He'll be 31. Jamie's talked about the Ami Brown and I feel like we can just hard to buy. Plus the tight ends. He's only 30. He'll be 31.
Jamie's talked about the Ami Brown and I feel like we can just end it there.
Anything else is going to be pretty deep leagues.
Okay.
Have a great day everybody.
We will talk to you tomorrow with Alfredo Brown and his wide receiving thoughts.
And we'll be back on Friday with the mailbag as well.
Talk to you soon. Bye. Bye. Bye.
Bye.
Bye.
Bye.
Bye.
Bye.
Bye.
Paramount podcasts.