Fantasy Football Today - Best WRs After Round 10 (06/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 29, 2022

Why talk about the receivers everyone will draft when we can start looking for the late-round hidden gems who can help you win your leagues?! Dave and Heath dig deep into Jahan Dotson and Tim Patrick's chances to outperform their ADPs, then reveal who else they like including Michael Gallup and Christian Watson. Heath also tells us why he likes Davante Parker (20:15) and George Pickens (23:50) Along the way they even discuss other WRs who didn't make their top-5 lists but maybe should have! Then they answer emails before a surprise voice makes a cameo. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've talked a lot this offseason about what we're going to do at the start of drafts. So early round picks, we've put a lot of players under the microscope, but what about the late picks? This is where you really win your fantasy leagues is by nailing your late round picks. And we've got players round 11-plus in NFC ADP that we're going to talk about, especially wide receivers. It's the deepest position.

It just makes sense to get after it with that position. Heath Cummings is here. Heath Cummings, hello. Hello, Dave. Who is your favorite wide receiver to take after round 10? It is Jahan Dotson. I still think that even with the terry mclaurin contract dotson has a chance to be a contributor and if something happens to mclaurin dotson has a chance to be a top 24 wide receiver so i i like dotson in round nine he's going i believe

currently in round 11 or 12 love him there i see his his ADP on NFC at almost 150th overall. That's round 13 in a 12-team league. That's insane to me. Do you remember how you felt about his talent before he was drafted to the Commanders? I liked him a lot. I mean, there's two things that – I'll say the good things and the bad things. His hands are incredible. He's blazing fast.

He's smaller, and so that's a concern. And he's a fourth-year wide receiver. And so I think he got discounted a lot because of that. But a super fast guy who catches everything is not a bad thing, especially when he gets first-round draft capital. In his last 21 games at Penn State this is his last two years there 143 catches 2066 yards and 20 touchdowns 20 touchdowns in 21 games from a receiver that's pretty dang good our friends that player profiler have a metric they use called college dominator and it's just like how you dominate production at your school it's a pretty good indicator of how you're going to play in the NFL. His was around 44%, which is in the 90th percentile of all wide receivers. So Dotson absolutely dominated. And it wasn't just that fourth year all the reports about how he's been a mountain or, you know, doing something stupid, but he's got a personal issue. He's not around. And Jamie's not here. Another personal issue. He's watching his fourth son, Pete Prisco. Here's what Adam sent. Can Carson

Wentz really give us two fantasy relevant wide receivers? In six seasons in the NFL, the most yards for a number two pass catcher in a Carson Wentz offense is 843 yards. And that was Alshon Jeffrey, who was actually the number one wide receiver, but number two pass catcher in terms of yardage. I know this with Carson Wentz. The best receiver he's ever had in a PPR points per game is 23rd at the position. And that was Alshon Jeffrey. I think it was like 2018, 2017, one of those years. He's never even had one receiver in the top 20

in PPR points per game. Now McLaurin's there, and we expect him to have a good year. I think everybody's drafting him as a number two wide receiver. What's the real ceiling for Dotson, assuming McLaurin stays healthy? How can he be a number three receiver or even a reliable bi-week guy if Carson Wentz has this terrible track record? Are we counting on Carson Wentz to take a step forward

in his seventh year? I don't know if it's about Carson Wentz. There's been a lot of talk about how is this the best quarterback that Terry McLaurin's ever had in Carson Wentz? But who's the best second wide receiver that Carson Wentz has ever had? Last year, the number two in targets on the Colts was Zach Paschal with 69 targets. Two years ago, the number one wide receiver in targets was Greg Ward with 79 targets. He has not played with a bunch of talented wide receivers. And I would argue this is the most, in fact, it's not even arguable, this is the most talented wide receiving core Carson Wentz has ever had. I'm going back now three years ago,

the number two wide receiver in targets was Nelson Aguilar, also with 69 targets. So maybe Jahan Dotson is just going to get 69 targets. But that was in a year when Zach Ertz and Dallas Goddard combined for 212. I don't think that's probably happening in Washington. Okay, so I think there is an upside issue with Dotson. But I'm in love with the talent and the opportunity. Hopefully that meets somewhere at a glorious intersection that leads to good fantasy results.

I'm with you. I've got him with a round nine tag, but I'm starting to think that that's maybe a little too soon for him. I like him as a round one pick in rookie only drafts, probably closer to like seven, eight in the first round. I think that's where I would take him. Just thinking long-term, even if he's the number two guy for a long time in Washington,

I don't think Wentz is necessarily going to be there. Eventually, hopefully, they get a quarterback who can just toss it all over the place. And I hope Dotson's after-catch abilities come through. So he's an interesting name. Definitely worth taking late. Maybe I feel like I'm a little too eye on him. Heath, I'm not sure if you'll change your mind on it. But I want to talk about my favorite receiver in the top five. It's not a rookie. It's a guy with two first names tim patrick of course dave richard i have two first names tim patrick two first names but that's

not the reason why like i want to tell you the exact stat that i found that made me fall in love with tim patrick and then i'm going to give you a bunch of other stats that i really liked about patrick and it's all in a comparison to courtland sutton and then heath you can check me on this one first and foremost the adp 147th overall so Sutton. And then Heath, you can check me on this one. First and foremost, the ADP, 147th overall. So almost 150th overall in your draft. You can get him so late and I'm taking him so dang early. I'm in that round eight, nine range on Tim Patrick because I think he could end up being the best receiver in Denver catching passes from Russell Wilson.

Here's the stat. In the red zone last year, Cortland Sutton had 10 targets. Tim Patrick had 11 targets. Cortland Sutton had one touchdown. Tim Patrick had two touchdowns. But believe it or not, neither one of them caught a pass in the end zone. This isn't really the stat.

This is now I'm transitioning from stat to film. Cortland Sutton was covered on every single end zone target he had there were some bad throws to Cortland Sutton and he just he was covered every time and it was happening downfield too he wasn't elusive he wasn't shaking his coverage if you go back and you watch all the red zone targets and in the end zone targets as well for Tim Patrick man he's elusive he's breaking away from his coverage he's not drawing number one coverage, he's not drawing number one coverage, but he's getting terrible targets. Almost every single throw he had was uncatchable. So I gave him a 0% catchable target rate in the red zone.

That's the stat that really transitions to me saying that Tim Patrick is the one who can end up being a lot better because he's getting away from his coverage and Russell Wilson will be more accurate. Now, as far as Sutton goes, Tim Patrick was as good or better than Cortland Sutton last year in catch rate on intermediate and deep balls. When I say intermediate yards, I'm talking 10 to 19 yards, deep balls, 20 plus yards, intermediate target rate. Again, that intermediate range of the field, he had a better target rate there than Cortland Sutton did. Short and intermediate yards after catch per receptions. That means that Patrick created on a better level than Cortland Sutton did. Short and intermediate yards after catch per receptions. That means that Patrick created on a better level than Cortland Sutton did. On those intermediate throws, by the way, 4.6 yards after catch per reception. Cortland Sutton was under two yards. He wasn't breaking away from coverage. And yards per route run, this is a metric that we look at all the time. You're looking for a number that's right around two yards. Patrick was better than

Sutton on short, intermediate, and deep passes, yards per route run. I think he's more explosive. I think it'll probably take an injury or bad play from Sutton or Jerry Judy for Tim Patrick to be the target leader in Denver. But at the ADP of 147, and even at a price tag in round 10, I absolutely am thrilled to get this guy on my team, put him on my bench, and see what happens.

I will now take a couple of breaths. Heath Cummings, you react. The problem is because I think I may have been first on the Tim Patrick is bad news for Cortland Sutton and Jerry Judy train. But I don't see how Tim Patrick is actually someone that's good for fantasy. Like in two years ago, Cortland Sutton played one game and Tim Patrick earned 5.3 targets per game. Last year, Jerry Judy played 10 games and was hurt for some of those as well.

And Patrick earned 5.3 targets per game. Now, if there's an injury to one of them, is there a chance that Russell Wilson's so good that there's two starting wide receivers and then maybe Patrick could be a low end number two? I think that's possible. But if Judy and Sutton stay healthy, then we're going to need Patrick to literally beat one of those guys out. And it's just a bet that I have a hard time making. I don't dislike him at his current ADP. He did not make my top five because I think I have him right around the 10, 11 turn. I don't know, like a lot of my guys and Dotson's one of them. If something happens to Terry McClure,

and I think Dotson could be the number one wide receiver on this team and really be like, maybe the number one wide receiver in this class for 2022. From the rookie class. Right. I don't think Tim Patrick on one injury has as much upside as Dotson does. Sure, because there's going to be another player there

to take targets away. And I think Dotson's better than Patrick. He could be. What I'm wondering is, the 5.3 targets per game, you remember how those Broncos' offenses were last year and the year before. Conservative, bad quarterback play. I wonder if just the change in coaching philosophy and the change to russell wilson

throws that upside down and we see the broncos become one of the pass happiest teams in the league that is really an interesting um i think question that we we don't have the answer for because there's like we can't say that we're looking at Hackett's history and think they're going to be exceptionally pass-happy because while Aaron Rodgers was wildly efficient, that was not really a pass-heavy offense. The last two years, the Broncos have been at 541 attempts and 556 pass attempts.

Isn't that around league average? Last year, league average was 593. It's hard to do league median. I'm sorry. League median is what I use. It's hard to do league average or league median over the last two years because one of those seasons was 16 games and one of those seasons was 17 games. But over the last two years, the Packers were basically league average last year at 590 and below league median the year before at 526 um so i don't know if in fact they had 573 the year before there hasn't been a 600 your pass attempt season and there was close in the 17 games last year um so i maybe they will go super heavy but they've

got melvin gordon and joante williams well. I don't really think they're going to. Last question on this, and then we'll move on to Michael Gallup. Cortland Sutton's ADP is 53 on NFC, and this is NFC, ADP, NFC high-stakes fantasy drafts since June 1st. So just this month, June's coming to an end. Sutton is at 53. Judy's at 59. And I already told you, Tim Patrick, 147.

If you had to take one Broncos receiver at their ADP, who are you taking? I've got Patrick 20 spots ahead of his ADP. I have him at 127. So he is my favorite. I have Sutton two spots ahead of his ADP. So 51 versus 53. I think I might be three rounds behind on Jerry Judy's ADP.

So he is the one I definitely wouldn't take. Patrick's the one I like the most, but I like Patrick and Sutton at their ADPs. I do too. I don't mind that combo platter. In fact, even if you get Corlin Sutton, maybe you're excited to get a piece of this Broncos offense and you get

Corlin Sutton in round four. If Tim Patrick's hanging around in round 10, why not take him too? I think we just invited a new strategy. It's a strategy involving players who might be friends who come together and you put them on your fantasy team. The friendship strategy.

Well, I was going to call it the Dave and Heath are awesome fantasy drafter strategy, but I guess friendship strategy, that'll do too. That's the name that Adam Azer has been giving it for years, so it makes sense to give him credit for it.

All right, let's talk about an offense that is pass heavy. Let's talk about the Dallas Cowboys, Michael Gallup coming off of a torn ACL. We don't know exactly where he is in his rehab from it. He is expected to play this year. We don't know when still technically a candidate for a pup list. We'll see what happens at the start of training camp, but he's going after, uh, he's in that round 10 plus range. How do you feel about Michael Gallup? Would you add him to your fantasy team? If it's round 10, round 11, and he's there. Well, 100%. He was, he was towards the top of my list. I think he and Dotson were the two players that were on both of our lists. Um, I've got, I've got Gallop as a borderline round eight pick right now and honestly if you told me

like we get to training camp and he's not on the pup and they say he's going to be a full go for week one i think round eight's a steal i just i don't and this is partially because i don't totally buy into the idea that cd lamb's going to be this 140 150 target guy and be worth a second round pick because that's not kind of that's not what ke this 140, 150 target guy and be worth a second round pick because that's not what Kellen Moore has really done. I think it'll be more balanced. Maybe we don't see Gallup with quite as many targets as what we saw from Amari Cooper,

but I would absolutely expect 120 plus. And I think if he's a full go from week one, he's got an excellent shot of being a top 25 fantasy wide receiver. I want to remind everybody of what Michael Gallup did in 2019. 113 targets. That's pretty darn good. 66 catches. We'd expect a little bit more. 1,107 yards. That's almost 17 yards per catch. That's good. Six touchdowns. Fine for a number three receiver. You'd probably want to have a little bit more than that. After that year, they drafted CeeDee Lamb. The receiving core gets crowded, and Gallup got hurt a couple of times. So obviously some issues kept him from having huge numbers.

But now, assuming he's healthy, Amari Cooper's gone. And for whatever it's worth, last year when he came back from his first injury, he had 11 or more PPR points in four of his final six games. Some of those games were without Amari Cooper. One of them might have been without CeeDee Lamb. I need to double-check it. But in that offense, he's giving you something where he could be at least a No. 3 receiver.

And if he's healthy and ready to go, A, it would be a pretty speedy recovery. The track record of players coming back from ACL injuries isn't great in their first year back but they do obviously respond and play well eventually i'm wondering if gallop is one of those players that you'll take with a late pick and you'll be forced to be patient with like one one of the worst scenarios i can think of is you draft gallop uh i've got him as around 10 round 11 pick his adp on n NFC is 129.7.

So basically 130th overall. That's round 11. Let's call it round 11 just for this conversation. You take him in round 11 and he's not ready, but he's not on the pup list to begin the season. So there's that maybe let's call it two weeks, three weeks where he's not playing. And then another three weeks when he's starting to get back into the swing of things, you may not feel reasonably comfortable starting Gallup, even as a number three receiver, until the middle of the season. If that's the case, Heath, is he a player to avoid on draft day and you let somebody else, and then maybe they drop him after week two or week three,

or are you just willing to be very patient with Michael Gallup? I think that type of downside in round 10 is well worth the upside that Michael Gallup brings. It's possible that that's the way that things go, but that's projecting, I think, not quite a worst-case scenario. He could re-aggravate something in training camp, but of the players coming back from ACL,

there seems to be slightly more optimism about Gallup being ready than some of the other guys like godwin for example and definitely odell beckham right and so like i i looked at just over the last three seasons so including that 2019 year but also the 2020 and 2021 which weren't great his 17 game pace in two of those three years with lamb and Cooper 70 catches 1,044 yards, six touchdowns on 122 targets. I might've been a little bit too low when I said 120 plus targets, if he's ready for week one.

Hmm. So you'll, would you draft him before Dotson? Right? This second I have Dotson. You know what? Yes. Ah, that's cool.

You just decided right here, right now, Heath? Just decided right here, right now. Okay. I think I'm too high on Dotson, but I still think I would take him ahead of Michael Gallup because I am worried about the downside with Gallup and a slow recovery. And when I think about spending my draft picks in round 10 plus, I don't know how many players I feel really comfortable taking if I know I've got to wait potentially six weeks for them. But you don't know that. We don't know that.

But it is a possibility. We're going to start to get an idea when training camp opens in a month. And if he starts training camp on the pup list, it's not the end of the world, but it's something that you've got to monitor. And remember, with the new pup rules, I don't think it's very likely it's four weeks and i don't think it's very likely that he doesn't start if he's off the pup before week one he's probably not missing three three weeks right if he was going to miss three weeks why wouldn't they start him on the pup exactly and because of the pup rule changes and he would have to sit for the first four weeks you can kind of think to yourself okay i can wait till week five and if your league uses ir spots which they should you can draft them

stash them pick up somebody else off the waiver wire now you're kind of getting two players for the price of one and then by the time galp comes back you'll have to make a roster decision that could be tough but it could also end up being really good for your fantasy team as you get off to a hot start and you just keep gallop on the bench or on your ir and he's not taking up a bench spot okay we're going to take a quick break right now on fantasy football today when we come back heath's top five at wide receiver we've already talked about a couple of them but there's still three more to get to, including a Patriot? What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days.

And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. We're back. Heath's top five. We already talked about Dotson and Gallup,

Devante Parker, George Pickens, Christian Watson are the other three. A lot of rookies on this list, and I think it's normal to be interested in rookie-wide receivers. When you're in round 10+, you're taking shots on players that have a lot of upside. But Devontae Parker, definitely no rookie. His ADP on NFC is in the 150 range. Where do you have him ranked? I've got him right around 10.

Maybe closer to round 9. Where do you have him ranked? I've got him right around 10. Maybe closer to around 9. I just look at that receiving core, and I don't know if Devontae Parker is going to be able to stay healthy. But if he stays healthy for the first half of the season, I don't really believe there's much competition in terms of wide receiver talent between him and Nelson Aguilar and Kendrick Bourne and Jacoby Myers. I would expect Devontae Parker, especially like the Patriots went and got him. And you can remember the things that Devontae Parker has done against the Patriots, even with their elite corners. I kind of think that's part of the reason why they got him. Right. So I think they probably view him as their number one wide receiver, as long as he can be healthy. And it's not often that you can get a team's number one wide receiver

in round 10. It's, you could make the argument based on what Mac Jones showed us as a rookie, that this will be the most accurate passer, maybe not the best quarterback, but the most accurate passer that Parker has played with. And he does have the upside to go give you six to eight weeks or however long he can stay healthy of top 20 wide receiver production. He's shown it to us in the past. I don't have a problem with him as a bench receiver. I have a little bit of a problem expecting him to have a gear like he's had in the past.

And he's had pockets of great play in the past. But I still think the Patriots offense, especially now that they're changing coordinators and keeping the same playbook, and we don't even know who the offensive play caller is going to be. It could end up being Bill Belichick. I'm not sure if I can count on Devontae Parker to have a big year. Just looking at the numbers last year from Patriots wide receivers,

Jacoby Myers led the way in targets with 126. He's their slot guy. His role isn't changing. Devontae Parker, far more of an outside wide receiver, the top target getter among outside wide receivers for the Patriots last year. Kendrick Bourne had 70. Nelson Aguilar at 64. Both those guys are still there. Now, I would imagine that both of them are going to start to see their targets slide because Parker's there. I think Parker takes that part of the field away, but is he really even a candidate for a hundred targets in this offense? And I don't think a hundred targets from Mac Jones is necessarily going to lead to like 55 catches or something like that. But I don't see the type of upside with Parker that you might see.

And I look at it a little bit differently in the Jacoby Meyer situation. I don't have Myers too far behind Parker because there's uncertainty as to which one of those two will lead the team in targets. But I will be very surprised when Parker's healthy if he does not impact Jacoby Myers' target share. If you're going to keep throwing the ball at Jacoby Myers 40% more than you throw it to anybody else, then what's the point in going out and getting Devontae Parker? Because he's killed you for so long, and you want to try and bottle that up and use that against some of your other division rivals. I get your point, but we've seen it for so many years in this Patriots system that they work inside out and that slot receivers tend to get a lot more work. Now, maybe Parker lines up in the slot a little bit more and they mix and match their targets. But I see the Patriots ahead of the curve on where I'm scared the NFL is going,

which is compartmentalizing everybody. And they're going to have specific roles for specific players against specific matchups. And there will be some weeks where they decide to utilize Hunter Henry and Johnny Smith, and those guys are going to get a lot of work against slower linebackers and inexperienced or smaller safeties. And you won't see the wide receivers too much, but in the games where the Patriots are going up against defenses that are good against stopping the run and maybe have weak outside corners, I bet you do see Devante Parker get a

better target share there. Let's remember that during the year. I think Parker could be a mix and match type of number three receiver, which is why I'm okay with him in that round 10, round 11 range. But I don't know if he's ever going to develop into a full-time guy. I don't know if he's going to be there. Pick a rookie. George Pickens, Christian Watson. Who do you want to go after first? Well, I think Pickens was a much better value. His ADP is in the 16th round right now.

Is it that far down? It's almost at 200. 187.8. I think 180 is the end of the 15th round. That means the turkey is well done. The turkey is well done. I think it's underrated the chance that Pickens could displace Chase Claypool as the number two wide receiver. Listen, again, just like Devante Parker, he's got to stay healthy. But this guy, talent wise, is a super duper star and did have some injury concerns, but was able to come back for the end of the season for Georgia last year.

So I don't think there's any concern about his health going into the year. He's an elite prospect who gave you production as an 18-year-old in the SEC. That's pretty special. There's zero floor. There's very little projection. This is solely a double-digit rounds upside play for Pickens. I want to lay out a scenario for you. When the Steelers go to a three-receiver set,

remember, there's no more Juju there. Deontay Johnson's still there. Claypool's there. You mentioned Claypool. Claypool was kind of like Corlin Sutton in that he had a hard time separating, but he's also like seven feet tall. What if they put him in the slot and they put

Pickens on the outside along with Deontay on the outside? I think that could be problematic. They could do that too. And I'd like to see them do that. I'd like to see them mix and match a lot more. But I almost wonder if that will give the defense fits. the issue I've got is how many games can we reliably expect George Pickens to come through with seven plus targets when he's sharing with those two guys, not to mention Fryer move, not to mention the fact that half of my philosophy on the Steelers is that they're going to run the ball and be more running back centric than they were

last year, which is saying something because they ran the ball a lot last year. Yeah. I don't, I like, I don't know how they could be more running back century. Certainly in the passing game, I think there'll be less running back century, but I think the case is that Pickens beats out Claypool. And even then he's probably a boom bust number three wide receiver. He, he probably needs a Deontay Johnson injury to really be a, a, a huge difference maker. But

again, he's available in the 16th round. I think if he acclimates in training camp pretty quickly and he starts flashing like crazy, I think there's no question the quarterbacks, both of them, Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, will gravitate toward him. I could almost see Pickett doing it already just because he's young and Pickens is young and Deontay Johnson has been a volume king his entire career and not necessarily somebody who's crazy explosive after the catch. Pickens is. So I wonder if he could evolve into their big play guy. And Antonio Brown started on that path and then he started to chip away at it

and he was getting targets all over the place. And I love Pickens too. Long-term, I think he's going to be great. I am a little worried that if I overvalue him on draft day, that he'll be kind of a pain in the butt because he could get off to a slow start. And then am I cutting him? I'm not sure what to do. I think he's a late round dart throw. And if after the first three, four weeks of the season, he's not doing anything, I'd be comfortable saying goodbye to George Pickens, maybe looking for him off the waiver wire at the midpoint of the year. Do you agree with that? Yep. That's where we're going. And then Christian Watson real quick on Christian Watson. I don't actually believe that Christian Watson is going to be very good as a rookie wide receiver, but he is very talented.

He has lots of tools and if everything went right in training camp, he probably has more upside than everyone because there's no true number one wide receiver on this team. So it's again, an upside play. It's probably someone you're not going to feel quite as good about dropping after four weeks. But the floor here is that literally week one, the wide receivers on the field for Aaron Rodgers on a majority of snaps don't include Christian Watson. That's possible. But the upside is that he's the number one wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers, so he needs to be drafted earlier than round 11. And isn't it the same exact thing with George Pickens?

If he acclimates well in training camp, he's going to get those opportunities. He will earn his targets by showing his coaching staff that he's capable of playing at the NFL level. I think it's going to be a tougher jump for Watson than it will be for Pickens, but I think the path to getting good target share is easier for Watson than it is for Pickens. I know it's kind of talking out of both sides of my mouth, but it's kind of the reality of the situation. Let's put it this way. If Pickens were in Green Bay, I think we'd all be all in on him. We'd love it. He would be that number one receiver there. We think he'd get there pretty

quickly. We think he'd acclimate quickly. He'd have the opportunity to get there. I would not be dropping be all in on him. We'd love it. He would be that number one receiver there. We think he'd get there pretty quickly. We think he'd acclimate quickly. He'd have the opportunity to get there. I would not be dropping him after four bad weeks. No, I wouldn't be dropping him. And if Watson were in Pittsburgh, I don't think we'd be excited about him at all. I don't think we'd be talking about him.

So really, it's about the opportunity and which receiver can get that opportunity first. That's something that you have to pay attention to during training camp. Adam also wanted to mention that Alan Lazard's ADP was going 112th overall. We mentioned that on FFT and five. So not quite around 10 or after around 10 plus he is going in round 10. I love that value. I'm taking him in like round eight.

I'm sure you feel the same way. Do you feel the same way? And would you be open to taking Lazard like round eight i'm sure you feel the same way do you do you feel the same way and would you be open to taking lazard in round eight nine and watson in round nine ten eleven yeah i've got i've got lazard in round nine so i think i think i have both of these guys 10 spots ahead of where they're being drafted or one round ahead of the way where they're being drafted the way that it usually works though like when i'm in drafts almost never is alan lazard or christian watson the best player on my draft board so i like them more than their adp but there's usually someone in a draft who likes them more like it generally speaking when you're going through a draft if you're just going by your own rankings you get

to pick 100 and the best player on your draft board is somebody like 78 or 82. There's just players that are a lot more than 10 spots ahead of ADP that you end up drafting. So I've not drafted either of these guys, but they're both better. I like them both slightly better than their ADP. I do too. I've drafted Lazard quite a bit. I love the end zone targets that he got last year when Devontae Adams was there. I love the explosive play rate that he got last year when Devontae Adams was there. I love the explosive play rate.

That was surprising to me. He was top 25 among wide receivers in explosive plays. If you put that together and he stays that way, he's going to end up being a really good value in fantasy drafts. Could be the number one receiver in Green Bay. That's not a bad thing. I want to talk about my top five list. Tim Patrick, I obviously talked about him.

Dotson's on my list him dotson's on my list gallops on my list the two names that i'd like to talk about quickly rondo moore and jameson williams and rondo moore we saw it last year terrible a dot was used kind of in like a it's like a gadget player not quite the same way that he was used at purdue certainly not the same type of volume that he had at purdue but we know the situation going into the year in Arizona. There's no DeAndre Hopkins. That's going to open up some targets. We know who the starting running back is in Arizona.

That's James Conner. The guy behind him might be Benjamin, might be Darrell Williams. Benjamin reportedly is ahead of Darrell Williams for now. But why couldn't it be Rondell Moore picking up some of that work as well as working out of the slot for the first six weeks of the season? I look at Rondell Moore as somebody that fancy managers can draft in round 10 or round 11, and they can cut him with some confidence after the first three weeks of the season if he's not doing bupkis, because eventually DeAndre Hopkins will be back, and eventually there will be a running back that'll work behind

James Connor and that'll really minimize Rondell Moore I think he's kind of a hot starter for fantasy managers to take in those late rounds what say you yeah he was really his value really cooled off when they traded for Marquise Brown true and and unfortunately my fantastic wonderful nickname of placebo Samuel did not ever take off. So that was also disappointing. I think the problem is you can see the way the Cardinals could use him in a way. They kind of did. A poor man's Placebo Samuel last year, 18 carries, is a lot for a wide receiver.

The problem is he was not good after the catch. He averaged 6.8 yards per target, and he wasn't particularly good running the ball. 4.2 yards per carry is fine for a running back. For a wide receiver, you expect considerably. Kind of expect a little more, yeah. Yeah, so it's possible that his second year in the NFL, he acclimates and we see him really pop. And I think his athleticism, I liked him a lot last

year. I've got them on several dynasty rosters. His athleticism gives you that hope, but it's not just a situation where, well, now there's more opportunity. He's going to have to actually be better than he was last year, or you're right. He'll be a very easy drop maybe after two or three weeks. Yeah. That's what I'm counting on when i say a hot starter i'm talking you you're going to draft him to your bench you're going to see what you get out of him maybe if calamity hits your roster you use him in week two or week three as a starter and if if he's not doing anything if it's not clicking you will have no problem cutting him and save that nickname he placebo samuel there are teams that are trying to find

their version of Debo Samuel you will be able to make a list of players that could have that as their nickname Jamison Williams definitely not going to be a hot starter to begin the year he's probably going to begin 2022 on the pup list towards ACL in January it's going to take him a little while to get on the field and to get right. I view him as someone that I would like to have on my roster in the second half of the season. I did the scouting report for him on CBSSports.com. I wanted to run through some of the advanced stats that I had for him, Heath, and I want your reaction to him. Here's the good. 19.6 yards per catch average. 9.3 yards after catch per reception last year.

That was fourth best in the nation. 3.14 yards per route run. Could I have just said pi yards per route run? I'm going to say it. Pi yards per route run. That ranked 12th among receivers with at least 50 catches, and now I know what I'm having for dessert after lunch. Here's the bad.

12 missed tackles forced in 2021. That ranked 50th among qualifying receivers. Only four contested catches. Maybe part of that has to do with the fact that he's so fast, he doesn't have many contested catches. His drop rate was also 7%. And then there's this stat, and I don't know if this one's good or bad. He caught 22 of 45 targets on passes of 15-plus air yards.

So think about that. These are longer throws downfield. This includes all those deep bombs that you saw in the highlight reels from Jameson Williams, but also when he runs a dig of 15 yards. That counts too. Those numbers got him 976 yards and 11 touchdowns. So 22 catches of 15-plus yards through the air. Half of them went for touchdowns.

Those plays accounted for 28% of his catches, 62% of his yards, 73% of his touchdowns in 2021. Is Jamison Williams strictly a deep ball threat and not somebody who can morph into a complete receiver? And if that's the case, does that mean he's going to be extremely inconsistent when he does play, whenever that is in 2022. I think he can absolutely morph into a complete wide receiver in the NFL at some point in his career. But we were just talking about how that year one off of an ACL, and this is a guy who tore his ACL in the year 2022. Yeah, he's got the speculation I've seen is hopefully he can be ready after the Lions buy, which I believe is in week six. Well, as you said, is it, he's ready for week seven and then we get a month of him acclimating.

And then for the rest of the year, he's a boom bust deep, deep threat. I have a hard time seeing with the Munro St. Brown, with Hawkinson, with Swift. I think those guys are going to handle the short area targets. And Jamison Williams, at least in year one, will be that straight line speed, deep ball guy who could have some monster games in the second half of the season, but I don't think he'll be very consistent. He's a round 12 pick for me in redraft, but a top five or six pick in Dynasty.

I agree. I don't think there's a problem with taking him as the number one rookie receiver in a rookie only draft because i think if if he can blaze past everybody tyreek hill style uh as soon as his knees are good that's not bad and tyreek hill developed into a complete receiver so jameson williams could do it too and i know everybody's kind of grossed out with detroit and you know jared goff the. Yeah. Maybe I'm a little too excited about Jamison Williams, but I think long-term he could end up being really, really good. I also sent Adam a list

of the guys who could climb into the top five. It's literally like 12 names. I'm not going to get into them all. And it's part of the reason why I put Jamison Williams there is because a lot of the other names, it includes Watson and Parker's on the list. George Pickens is on the list, guys, that we've talked about, and a lot of other names that you might be thinking about listening to the podcast. But I just think that Williams might have that great second half upside. And when I'm picking late, I don't want to pick for downside then. I want to pick for upside then.

You put a couple of names on there, and the names you didn't put in the same discussion I thought were interesting. Because you put Amari Rogers slash Lil Romeo. Yeah, Romeo is one of my favorites. And did not put Sammy Watkins. And I think it's more likely that Sammy Watkins starts week one than either of those guys. Okay. And so if Watkins starts week one, he's definitely worth a late pick just in case he gets off to that hot start. We talked about it. Probably going to score three touchdowns. Yeah, right. And then you're going to

start him in week two and he's going to have three catches. And then week three, he's going to have three catches. And then week four, he's going to be hurt. Probably a hamstring. I would put him in that same conversation as Rondell Moore, but you don't have to draft him when you'll draft Rondell Moore. Because you can just wait and wait and wait. Sammy Watkins isn't going to be popular. You could definitely make the case for it. And he's the pivot if you don't hear good things about Christian Watson slash Romeo Dubs slash Amari Rogers in Green Bay.

It could very well end up being Alan Lazard and Sammy Watkins as the starting top two receivers in Green Bay. And then you also put MVS, but I did not see Sky Moore or Meikle Hartman. And I probably should have put Sky Moore in there. He's another name that I got excited about. And now I'm kind of cooling off about because it sounds like they're going to play him in the slot. And if they play him in the slot, does that mean he's going to split time with Juju? And is this going to be a team that kind of like what I said with the Patriots, they're going to compartmentalize at least their wide receivers.

And I think they might do it with their running backs too. And it makes me nervous about trusting any of those guys from week to week. You've got to hope that Skymore breaks out or that MVS breaks out. I'd be nervous to take, let's say, using the friendship strategy on those two guys, Moore and Valdez-Scantling. I think you could go 0-2 and whiff on both. So it might be one of those things where you pick your favorite wide receiver in Kansas City. And the reports out of training camp and preseason will go a long way into determining who that player is. Whoever it is, is probably worth a late pick and one more one more you put you put john mechi another guy who's coming off of an acl yes i did did not see nico collins i think

mechi is going to take the slot when he's healthy in houston yeah and look i don't i don't know how this offense is going to work under Pep Hamilton. I know that Pep is a pretty forward-looking type of play caller. I don't think he's stuck in the past. But I do know that their GM comes from New England, and that Patriots way means working inside out.

We already talked about it. And if Mechie's in the slot, he could be an easy target for Davis Mills to lean on for short gains. And if he's ready to go, he could be a easy target for davis mills to lean on for short gains and if he's ready to go he could be a 10 point ppr receiver from week to week five catches 50 yards i think he could get there and his adp right now is at 240.8 uh that's like what round 21 it's also four rounds higher than valis jones it's pretty good. And Bayless Jones is also somebody that's absolutely worth some consideration. He's an older rookie, was in college for six years, played in five of the six years.

And I liked him at the Senior Bowl. I know the reason why teams didn't like him. And the Bears like him. The Bears needed to draft players who could help them now. And I'm positive they saw Bayless Jones as somebody who could help them now and i'm i'm positive they saw valis jones as somebody who could help them win now so he's definitely another name to put in that mix and he's healthy you can put him out of john mechi in that regard it's yeah we expect the bears to stink throw the ball a lot if all he has to do is beat out byron prinkle to be the number two receiver

there and he's not bad he's really not bad okay you want to get some emails heath before we wrap this thing up yeah we got a long one from dave in flint and it's all about the running back that everybody cares about naheem hines oh yeah here's the email here's a thought on naheem hines i've only shared with my mower because i listen at work but once i heard you rant about emails all being dynasty and keeper, well, here you go. Consensus is now saying that Hines is going to be a top 30 running back or better, all because the coaching staff has come out and said that they really like Hines and they want to utilize him more. But have we not heard this before? They say this every season and every season he gets drafted with expectations of being at least an RB2 and he gives you maybe five games of being at least an RB2,

and he gives you maybe five games of being excellent for fantasy, and the rest you wonder why in the heck you drank the Kool-Aid. So is he a quality player? Sure. Is he athletic? Sure. Does the coaching staff like him? Sounds like it. Is he going to give you enough fantasy points and victories to make you feel good about drafting him in the fourth round? I doubt it. We're not drafting Naheem Hines in the fourth round. There were several factual errors.

Go ahead. Go ahead. You knock them off. Yeah, multiple factual errors. I don't think anyone is saying that Naheem Hines is going to be a top 30 running back, and I don't think we've suggested maybe one year we draft him with the hope that he would be an RB2. I don't remember that, but I wouldn't dispute it. Looking at our rankings right now, I think I currently have him the highest.

I have Hines at RB35. Jamie has him at RB37. And Dave has him at RB46. So Dave hates named Hines. No Kool-Aid here. I would not be surprised at all if Hines is second on the Colts and targets. I think he could be a good PPR flex.

He finished 29th in PPR points per game in 2020. If you remember the circumstances in 2020, Marlon Mack started the year as the lead back in Indianapolis. They had just drafted Jonathan Taylor. Mack gets hurt in week one. He's out for the year. Took Taylor half a season to really get used to the NFL game and to not be so tentative with the football. They kind of had no choice but to go with Hines. And on top of it, Phillip Rivers was their quarterback, a mobile guy who loved to check down. That's how we finished 29th in ppr points per game at running back last year he was 62nd obviously jonathan taylor knew what he was doing carson

wentz more of a downfield thrower just didn't work out for naheem hines injuries i think also played a role now we look to this year and yes a nice quote from frank reich saying that if he played fantasy and let's face it, everybody plays fantasy. Frank does too. That Naheem Hines would be one of his picks. Matt Ryan is definitely a statue, but he's going to be well-protected. So I don't know how much checking down he'll do.

Certainly there will be plays called that are designed to go to Naheem Hines. That might happen three times a game. And I also think he'll be the running back that's on the field when they're in the hurry-up offense. That could lead to a couple of catches on top of it. So maybe in a good week for Naheem Hines, that's five catches. Does he get a lot of carries? Probably not. Not as long as Jonathan Taylor's healthy. So I agree with Dave the mower in Flint that I think we're getting a little too ahead of ourselves with Naheem Hines. That's why I have

him ranked where I have him ranked. That's 46 overall at the running back position i will let jamie take naheem hines ahead of me every time this next i am ahead of jamie oh so i'm gonna let you take him then i'm gonna let you guys just battle it out for naheem hines and i'll kick back with a sprite and be like yeah i'm living the good life because i'm not going to reach for Naheem Hines. And maybe I'll be wrong, but the history suggests that I'll be okay. Not that you guys have him ranked so far ahead, but other running backs I'd rather have. Let's get on with the emails.

This is from Jackson. Where's he from, Dave? Jackson's from Coatesville, Pennsylvania. This is for Darnell, David, and Justin. Those are bears. Bears. I'm in a 10-team half PPR league and can choose my draft slot

because I won last year. What draft slot would you go with? Easiest question of the day. Really just needs one answer. One. Just to lock up Jonathan Taylor? You're in a 10-team league. All that matters is superstars.

Go get the best. All right. So our next email. Oh, look at this. Look at here. Are you doing okay? I'm fine. All right. You want to finish this? Yeah, let's go. Ready? I have two emails left. I can do it. I can handle it. You can handle two emails? All right. It's good to hear your voice. From Jeff in

British Columbia. Hey, Adam, Jamie, Dave, and Heath. I'm in a 10 team standard league that now has two keepers. Last year, I took Derek Henry with the third pick and Mixon and Jefferson after that. Nice. I don't have all the keeper rules yet. My question is, if Henry and Jefferson are

no-brainers, or could any combination be possible? So, 10-team standard scoring league. Henry, Mixon, Jefferson. He thinks it's Henry and Jefferson. What do you guys think? It is standard scoring league henry mix in jefferson he thinks it's henry and jefferson what do you guys think it is standard scoring dave would absolutely do henry and mixin for sure i sure would um oh and standards you said standards yeah yeah yeah standard that makes it closer uh henry's the easy one i would i have mixing one spot ahead jefferson and non-ppr so you would

take him too there it is if it was ppr i 100%. We need to have a talk about Dave's whole farce of wanting to start taking wide receivers more in the early rounds and then ranking Cooper Cup like ninth overall. You're never going to get Cooper Cup. Sure. I'll have you know that I have mixed and ranked ahead of Jefferson in full PPR as well. Thank you very much. I knew that. I don't know if I love it, but I do have it ranked that way. All right. Last one. Don't have a name or city dave it's uh jose from pierre south dakota okay or parents out the twitter is in north dakota

pierre is in south dakota i think somebody in the, where's Pierre? Alright, here's the email. Dear Rue, Jules, Fezco, and Nate. Oh, this is from Joe, by the way. This is from Joe. Sorry, I did have a name. Dear Rue, Jules, Fezco, and Nate. Nope. I think that's Euphoria.

The only reason why I know is because I googled it before the show. The biggest 180 I've ever done on a TV show. It was the worst show I ever saw, and now I love it. It was a truly great show. If you didn't like it, why did you keep watching it? I guess my wife was watching it. My wife.

My wife. 12-team, full PPR, two-keeper league. I have the fifth overall pick, three-receiver league, flex. So far, I'm keeping DeAndre Swift in the fourth round, but I need help with my second keeper. Cordaro Patterson in the 12th, Iyuk in the 7th, Jalen Hurts in the 11th, Trey Lance in the 12th, or Rashad Bateman in the 16th?

I think I'm going to have the same answer as Heath. Yeah, I don't know. There's a pretty big difference between like Bateman and the 16th it's hard to pass that but I'll go Hurts I would too okay Pierre is in South Dakota there you go damn right it is

thanks guys how was the show we haven't gotten to the top 5 wide receivers yet because we spent the first 30 minutes debating tight ends. So if you want to host us through all of our top five receivers, you can. That's all right. Thank you to David Heath for filling in today.

I appreciate it. You don't believe me, do you? I sort of do, but we're out of time anyway. Have a great day, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow with the players on our Do Not Draft list on Fantasy Football Today.