Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score and Five Big Topics (10/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: October 10, 2022Let's get nerdy with some advanced stats and usage stats coming out of Week 5. First, we recap Bengals-Ravens with our thoughts on J.K. Dobbins, Ja'Marr Chase and more ... News and notes (13:10) with ...some waiver wire talk. How much FAB for Ken Walker? And what do we think of the Panthers with a new head coach? Then we'll give you the advanced stats, snap shares, third down roles and more to know from Week 5 (20:15). D.J. Moore has encouraging stats with PJ Walker. Najee Harris appears to be out on third downs. Matthew Stafford thrives when he is not pressured ... Five Big Topics! Is Taysom Hill a must-start tight end (33:25)? How do we predict Amari Cooper's big weeks (36:45)? How should you approach players who are playing hurt (40:00)? Geno Smith vs. Tom Brady (42:40) and potential breakout running backs in Week 6 (48:30) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
What a play!
Can you believe this?
No, I can't.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
He's just going to go the distance.
Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Are we buying Geno Smith or Taysom Hill?
Can Brian Robinson or Tyler Algier break out in week six?
What are our thoughts on the Panthers offense with a new head coach going forward?
We're going to update you on the big injuries, the waiver wire,
the stats you need to know.
This is Beyond the Box score here.
Advanced stats from simple people.
Adam Azer with Jacob Gibbs and Dan Schneier.
Sorry, if you can come up with a better
line, Jacob, then by all means, but you
haven't suggested anything. What am I
supposed to do with that? Come on. What's up,
Jacob Gibbs? You ready for the game tonight, big Chiefs
fan? You ready? Oh, yeah.
Yeah, we pretty much always kill the
Raiders, so I'm feeling pretty good about this. Let me
tell you something about Jacob, because I talk
a lot of trash about Schneier, and I'm
going to lose to Schneier in a
fantasy league this week, which he probably wasn't even aware
of, but it's one of the worst feelings you can have.
That's the best part. It's one of the worst feelings you can have in fantasy
is losing to Schneier, but it's going to happen.
Jacob, two years
ago, was so confident
about the Super Bowl. Just like
what he just said right now. He was so
confident. He thought it was going to be a runaway.
So I guess you haven't learned anything
in the last two years, Jacob.
Yeah, I guess not.
I was hoping to never have to bring that one up again.
That was embarrassing.
Dan, do me a favor.
Pronounce this word for me before we move any further.
W-A-T-E-R.
Watermelon. Water.
I have a perfect...
This is one of the best drinks on the market right now.
Unfortunately, I'm using a green screen,
so you can't fully see it,
but it is Trader Joe's sparkling watermelon juice.
Literally as good as it gets.
He says it with a W-A-R-T-E-R, watermelon juice.
But for you, it's watermelon juice.
For those of you at home.
Orange, water, Florida.
That's the way to say these words.
The best. All right. What's up, Schneier? How you doing, man? How was your weekend? uh for the water florida that's the way that's the way to say these words the best all right
what's up schneier how you doing but how was your weekend doing great and i'm now scrambling to find
out which league i'm beating you in i'm winning in basically all leagues as usual as you mentioned
on previous podcasts my two and oh start trying to find it now it's not the fantasy it's to qb
i started russell wilson and uh trevor lawrence so super flex yeah yeah so ah well here we go It's 2QB. I started Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence.
Superflex, yeah.
Well, here we go. I'm taking a look now. No, this is a different one because I'm actually losing to Oil of Alave in this one.
That's me. That's Oil of Alave.
So I just haven't looked and projection is great.
Oh, yes, it is. Clyde and Juju and Carlson.
And I'm only down nine points to Adam.
What an embarrassment Adam has been in this league. He's about to drop
to two and three. I'm about to rise to four and
one. It's unbelievable how good I am
in these leagues. An embarrassment. I can't
disagree. My quarterback's terrible.
Did I even set my lineup this week?
That's the embarrassment. All right, so let's
get into the show here. We'll have
our five big topics. We'll talk to you about...
I didn't even realize that Najee Harris is
off the field on third downs, basically,
for Jalen Warren, two weeks in a row.
And we'll talk
about that and some other things. Let's start with Baltimore
19, Cincinnati 17,
Justin Tucker with, of course, the game
winning field goal. The Bengals
have lost three games this year, all of them on
last second game winning field goals, or
game losing field goals in their case. That's
incredible. The Ravens are 19-2 in field goals in their case. That's incredible.
The Ravens are 19-2 in primetime home games under John Harbaugh.
Thank you to the Associated Press recap for that one.
T. Higgins left with an ankle injury.
He played 10 snaps. We are not certain about his status for Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints.
Marcus Williams, Baltimore safety, has a dislocated wrist.
He is on IR.
He's going to miss a lot of time.
It's not a season ender.
But that's the second big defensive back injury the Ravens have had.
This is a secondary that was ranked very, very highly by people who ranked those things
before the season started.
Things changing now.
But anyway, Jacob, give me your takeaways, fantasy takeaways from Baltimore and Cincinnati.
I thought the way Devin Duvernay was used was interesting.
He ran around on 28 to 35 dropbacks, seven targets.
They got him involved as a rusher as well.
A lot of pre-snap motion for him as well.
So if Rashad Bateman remains out,
then he's somebody who could be fantasy relevant.
And then it was really good to see Mark Andrews
just back to dominating.
I know a lot of people kind of panicked last week.
There was like, I mean, even on the podcast,
we recorded kind of a narrative like,
is it just Travis Kelsey and no one else?
It's like, no, it's just one bad week.
It was like the worst week we've ever seen from Andrews.
And like, he's going to be fine.
Yeah, another big game for him, 89 yards.
He has four touchdowns and three games with 22.9 or more PPR fantasy points.
Kenny and Drake got a little bit more involved than I would have liked.
I didn't know this, but Jamie said on FFT today that John Harbaugh said that J.K. Dobbins was on a snap count.
Oh, okay.
Yeah, I didn't catch that either.
Solved a lot of mysteries for me and took away a lot of content because I was definitely going to go on a, I'm very worried about Jacob. I'm still worried about him, but at least we know
what happened here, Jacob. With the snap count, you know, I don't know if you noticed, but Chris
Godwin only played about 52% of the snaps, barely played in the fourth quarter. They did have a 21
nothing lead, but you know, I'm, I don't know if we should get into this now, but you know,
it's worth, it's worth remembering. I was very high
on those two players
in particular,
Dobbins and Godwin,
but guys coming off
of these major injuries,
it's kind of up in the air,
you know,
and being on a snap count
a week after playing a lot
is a little concerning
for me for Dobbins,
so that was definitely
disappointing.
Dan, how about you?
What stood out to you
in this game?
By the way,
Devin Duvernay is only
about 50% rostered,
so he's got the Giants this week
and definitely the number one wide receiver for them with Bateman out.
Dan, what do you got?
Well, I think from a football standpoint,
the most interesting thing to me was watching a Ravens defense
that has made a living on being one of those most man coverage,
single high, middle of the field, close safety look defenses,
try to play zone.
And it worked because they only allowed six.
The only, the Bengals only attempted six passes that traveled 11 yards in the air or more,
and they couldn't get anything going that way.
The Ravens were able to take that away.
And this is against the Ravens defense that entered this game tied for the lead for allowing
the most passes of 11 plus yards in the secondary.
So that I thought was incredibly interesting.
And then to add to that,
despite the Ravens playing the bangles this way, you know, with more zone looks lighter boxes,
Joe Mixon was just once again, incredibly disappointing. I want to shout out rich rebar
for these stats because they're truly incredible. Mixon has now now after last night where he saw a
ton of ton more light boxes, he now leads the NFL with runs against light boxes and a light
box just means, you know, you have more offensive linemen blocking than the actual defenders who are
in the box. So say you have five offensive linemen in a one tight end set, there's five, six,
there's six guys and there's five guys in the box facing it. That means a four man defensive line,
one linebacker, three defensive line, two linebackers. The same goes for when you add
two tight ends and you have seven guys
blocking.
Anyway, on those carries, Mixon averages 3.64 yards per carry.
The league rate on these is 5.04 yards per carry.
And that's for the season or that was last night?
That's for the season.
That's for the season.
And he wasn't much better last night.
He's lower in yards prior to contact per carry.
He's 1.36.
It's 1.66 league wide.
2.2 yards after contact per carry against light boxes.
The league average is 3.39.
And then obviously the big one, at least for fantasy,
5.4% touchdown, first down to touchdown rush percentage
against lighter boxes.
League average is 22.1%.
So Joe Mixon right now is not playing good football.
He's getting what you want, light boxes.
This is how the Ravens tried to play the Bengals.
They took away the passing game, and Mixon wasn't able to capitalize.
He was good.
I mean, this was by far his best game.
Five of his nine longest runs all season came in this game,
or five of his eight longest runs or something like that.
Five of his eight longest runs of the season came in this game.
He had 14 games.
This was by far the best game,
and he came up about a foot short of a touchdown, too.
So I do feel like you're being a little harsh.
I mean, a season-long thing on Mixon, yeah.
I feel like maybe he got things turned around a little bit in this game.
It didn't look like it to me, just given how light.
I mean, look, they're daring you to run every play.
You should be able to tear it up,
especially with an offensive line that has a few more pieces
added to the mix they look like they were blocking a lot better specifically caris on the inside
i don't know to me it just feels like it's not there for him i'm not seeing explosive runs i'm
not seeing much after contact i'm not seeing a lot of force missed tackles in the open field
from mixin all the things i look for to kind of evaluate a running back independent of his cast
well i do agree about the explosive runs he's not He's not really ripping any big ones off there,
but 5.6 yards per carry yesterday for Joe Mixon
was encouraging, almost had the touchdown,
ended up being a QB sneak touchdown for Joe Burrow
late in the game to give them the lead.
All right, what are we thinking about Jamar Chase at this point?
12 targets, 7 catches for 50 yards.
I really thought Marcus Peters did a very good job against him.
And I don't know.
I can't diagnose it.
I'm not smart enough to figure out what's going on with Jamar Chase.
But this is now, look at his freaking ADOT this year in five games.
6.8, 6.3, 12.4, 18.5, 4.6.
He has already matched the amount of games from 2021 with an a dot under nine yards
three times already and they're all under seven yards so i don't know the offense is not the same
jacob and if you know if you were redrafting today i mean is jamar chase still a top five
wide receiver i think it's clear cup and jefferson and for me i would have to put digs ahead of him
is jamar chase still you know a top five receiver for you?
No, I don't think so.
He's kind of on the borderline for me going into the year,
and I got a lot of heat for that.
No, I think you could come up with a decent number of guys you put ahead of him.
I think the point that Dan brought up about Baltimore's defense
in this game is really interesting,
and I just looked into it a little bit more.
They only use man coverage 18% of the time,
and they use cover four or cover six over 40% of the time.
And prior to this week,
they'd only use that combination on 27% of defensive plays.
And as a result,
we saw Joe Burrow's average depth of target was 3.6 yards this week.
So you mentioned that they are a little bit banged up in the secondary.
If they go to a schematic change in how they approach things things defensively that could really be something to keep an eye
on going forward and that you know definitely could have affected jamar in this spot i think
part of that was just how they wanted to match up against the bangles i think a lot of teams are
going to do this from now on and one thing i didn't like about the bangles they came out with
a really good plan they got as far as utilizing chase they got him featured early with that quick
hitter on the screen that's the type of if you're facing this kind of defense that's playing a lot
of zone it's not trying to take away the big plays that should have been a bigger part of
their game plan they tried to do something similar not similar but they tried to do something in the
same vein a little bit later when they got him on that run on that kind of end around play but you
need to have more of those quick hitters around the line of scrimmage get the ball and chase his
hand and that's something we saw him do last year. He broke off some big plays
in the screen game. I was surprised they didn't try to come back to that more often in the second
half, uh, just to kind of try to counter what they were doing on defense. Yeah. One thing on
Jamar is, um, through the first four weeks, he was not targeted on first downs, hardly at all.
Um, he had eight targets on 58 routes runs. So 13.8% of his routes run on first down.
Did you have a target that was way up last week?
He had six first down targets over 40% of his routes run.
So it's good that they're at least, you know,
trying to be intentional about getting, getting the ball.
Obviously that coincided with T Higgins being out.
Sure.
Yep.
They really were.
I mean, he did have 12 targets.
Just, I thought really good coverage by Peter's disappointing that chase
couldn't really beat him.
All right.
We'll talk about Tyler Boyd
and Hayden Hurst on the waiver wire.
Tyler Boyd more in shallow leagues.
He's 70% rostered.
Hayden Hurst has had two games this year
with more than 27 yards.
Both of them have been the games
that T. Higgins left with injury.
So 31% rostered.
It's an interesting play at least for him.
And let me just see their math.
They're at New Orleans next week.
And then, yeah, for the Ravens, I think we already covered it.
Hopefully we can get better performance from J.K. Dobbins going forward.
But he was apparently on a snap count.
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News and notes.
The Panthers fired their head coach and their defensive coordinator.
They did not fire Ben McAdoo.
So, Dan, does this help DJ Moore?
Does it do anything here?
Because Baker Mayfield's going to miss some time, apparently.
He wants to play, but he's got a high ankle sprain,
so it looks, for the time being, like it's going to be PJ Walker. Yeah, I don't think this helps the passing offense. I'm really surprised they went this route. I know we had been tipped off that they might earlier in the season. And I guess
Ben McAdoo does have some experience, but I actually think what Phil snow, the defensive
coordinator was doing over there on the inside of the ball was really good stuff. Schematically
speaking, there was some great takeaways from that Panthers defense. It's hard when you're on
the field for so long because your offense is so inept and the offense
is going to stay the same. This is Ben McAdoo's offense that they were running. So to me,
nothing really changes from the schematic standpoint, but I do think there could be a boost
from putting BJ Walker on the field. I hate to say it, but Baker Mayfield has been playing
unbelievably bad football for the first five weeks. I'm not, I'm not here to say BJ Walker
is going to play much improved version, but there is a potential for him to just lock on to D.J. Moore, which would
be great for Moore, and also have a little bit more ability to make broken plays. He scrambles
here, he throws down the field on a broken play, something I think D.J. Moore and really all those
receivers on that team can take advantage of. So I think there's a chance for a little bit more
explosive plays, but I don't expect to see too much differently schematically with McAdoo now as the head coach. Just to go back to last
year, PJ Walker did make one start. He was 22 of 29 for 167 yards with no touchdowns and an
interception. He faced the Arizona Cardinals. Cam Newton also played in that game. He threw a
touchdown and he ran for a touchdown.
So they moved the ball fairly well.
I don't know if they moved the ball well,
but they scored two touchdowns,
but they were both from Cam Newton,
one throwing, one rushing.
McCaffrey had 10 catches on 10 targets.
DJ Moore had four catches on seven targets. Robbie Anderson led all the wide receivers.
McCaffrey led all receivers with 66 yards.
Robbie Anderson had 37 yards and a touchdown.
So it wasn't pretty.
Could be better this time around.
Who knows?
So yeah, it's a high ankle sprain right now
for Baker Mayfield and a new head coach.
They are at the Rams and then the Bucs
their next two weeks.
Russell Wilson has a lat injury,
which is part of the reason why I'm going to lose
to Schneier in the 2QB league.
Teddy Bridgewater, he's beat up, we know that.
I saw an interesting quote from Kirk Cousins,
who completed the first 17 passes of the game on Sunday.
And again, just a reminder that there are a lot of quarterbacks
with new systems, and it takes time.
And Kirk Cousins said,
I'm not where I was at the end of last season in that old system,
but we're developing it, and we're getting there, and I'm not where I was at the end of last season in that old system, but we're developing it and we're getting there.
And I'm excited about that continued growth.
So you just just something to keep in mind.
We also know Damian Harris got hurt.
Ty Montgomery is eligible to come off IR, but is not going to this week in all likelihood.
And that would only help from Andre Stevenson.
Rashad Penny is out for the season.
And that's the big one here.
So, Jacob, what do you think about Ken Walker,
who got most of his yards on one carry,
a 69-yard touchdown against the Saints?
But Ken Walker, I assume we've got to consider him
a must-roster player.
If he's available, go get him,
and he's available in 32% of CBS Sports Leagues.
Do you think Ken Walker's going to be successful?
And they just give you their schedule.
They have two really bad run defenses,
especially in week six,
a week seven rather,
but it's the Cardinals and the chargers up next for Seattle.
I definitely,
it could be,
it's a really limited sample size.
We haven't,
I'm so far,
but he's been very efficient.
He's breaking tackles at one of the highest rates of any running backs with,
you know,
20 plus carries yards after contact really, really high as well of any running backs with, you know, 20 plus carries, um, yards after contact,
really, really high as well. And then obviously that, you know,
backs up what we've seen from the collegiate level,
really efficient as a rusher.
I'm really curious what his usage will be like.
I really don't know if the sample size we have when,
from the point Penny went down last week is large enough to draw any
conclusions from. Um, but if he can get the passing down work,
then yeah, we're looking at a top 12, top 15 running back.
So it's definitely exciting when these matchups coming up
are going to give him a chance to really blow up.
So I think he's definitely somebody you've got to...
I mean, how much are you guys...
I guess you're going to have a waiver I show,
but are you prioritizing like 30%, 40%, 50%
to get this type of player on the regular?
This is the type of player I think you spend all of it.
Yeah.
If he's available.
You know, I'd rather have, let's say,
Tony Pollard's two roster.
I'm just trying to think of handcuffs
that are actually available that would be better in theory
than Ken Walker.
Rashad White.
Rashad White, I think, would be.
I think I'd take Walker over white.
Honestly,
really?
I don't think it,
I don't,
I don't think it'll go all to white.
If Leonard for net goes down with a major injury,
I think there's a really good chance.
It could go majority to Walker.
Like I still think he,
Sean Vaughn will get mixed.
Like they'll have different players.
They can mix in almost all the carries.
We'll go to Walker.
And after in the second half,
I mean,
Rashad,
Penny paid, played three snaps in the second half.
DJ Dallas played three snaps.
Ken Walker played 15.
Right.
And they didn't run that many plays in the second half.
So he was pretty much, you know,
on the field for most of those snaps.
Yeah, but bottom line is that
I can't think of too many guys, if any,
that have more upside, more appeal than Ken Walker
if the starter got hurt that aren't already rostered in every league. Okay, like Tony Pollard, that have more upside, more appeal than Ken Walker if the starter got hurt
that aren't already rostered in every
league. Like Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, those guys
don't count. So who are you saving
it for? Khalil Herbert? Sure, he
could be there, but I don't know what his roster
percentage is now, but he could get dropped
in theory. Yeah, but
go get him. Absolutely be aggressive
here. Yeah. Alright,
then a couple other injuries.
We'll keep an eye on Tyreek Hill and the 49ers.
They two huge losses.
Emmanuel Mosley's out for the year towards ACL starting cornerback.
Also safety Jimmy Ward.
I forgot about him.
I don't know what his status is,
but Nick Bosa is the other one.
We'll keep an eye on.
He left with a groin injury.
All right.
How about these wacky stats?
We don't even have to analyze them, but just for you football fans out there the patriots are
now five and oh under bill belichick with quarterbacks who were drafted outside the first
round making their nfl making their first start five and oh when quarterbacks drafted outside the
first round make their first start the rest of the the NFL is 30-80 since Belichick
became the Patriots coach in 2000.
Amazing!
These are all from the Associated
Press game recaps.
The Lions are the second team in the past
25 seasons to enter the game
number one in the NFL
in scoring and get shut out.
Taysom Hill is
the third NFL player since 1970
with 100 rushing yards
and three touchdowns and a
passing touchdown in the same game
according to ESPN. That was actually from
ESPN, sorry. The others
were LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie
Brown. And
this one was crazy. Can you believe Jalen
Ramsey recorded
the first sack of his career yesterday?
Yeah, that one's hard to believe.
Is that weird?
I'm going to pro football reference just to confirm it,
but I should have done that before the show,
but I'm pretty sure that is real.
Sacks, any sacks for you?
Nope, first sack of his career.
Unbelievable.
96 games for Jalen Ramsey, never had a sack.
All right.
How about the topics,
the stats that we're actually going to talk about?
Jacob, why don't you kick it off?
Yeah, just on DJ Moore,
I wanted to throw this in.
He's run 132 routes with PJ Walker at quarterback,
which is not a truly trustworthy sample size,
but it's not totally insignificant either.
He's been targeted on 24% of his routes,
average 2.1 yards per outrun.
So those are above his career averages and are definitely above what we've seen from this year and the comp i would
make is to cd lamb um where you know everyone just kind of assumed um that he was screwed when
he lost deck but just like yeah i don't think it matters too much what level of quarterback
plate is if as long as it's someone who will feed him. And I think that he could get fed.
I mean, we've seen CeeDee Lambie, the wide receiver,
nine over the past four weeks.
I think if DJ Moore gets fed, he's talented enough
that he could be still a top 20 receiver,
even in a really inept offense led by PJ Walker.
So maybe I'm just looking for reasons to be back in on DJ Moore.
Well, Dan, have you watched the film?
You have, right?
Because I've watched a lot of DJ Moore.
I watched every route that he ran in this game,
and I watched two weeks ago.
I didn't watch week four.
I do not think he's getting open very often.
I am a big amateur at this,
but I watched Amari Cooper's routes and then DJ Moore's routes.
And Amari Cooper is an exceptional route runner and DJ Moore looks anything
but to me.
And I don't know if that's a scheme thing,
if they're just not well-designed plays or what,
but if I didn't know how much everyone that I work with love DJ Moore going
into the year,
I would not think much of DJ Moore just based on what I've seen.
Um, maybe he'll be more motivated now. I've a lot of frustration like sometimes he gets open he doesn't get open often but when he does baker mayfield seems to miss him and then he gets really
frustrated uh or well a little frustrated anyway i shouldn't say that but i i don't know man like
is he really that good i i i i don't know if you've noticed anything cause I've specifically been looking
at DJ more.
And again,
I want to press,
I am not a professional here.
I'm an amateur at analyzing guys running routes,
but it was night and day comparing him to Amari Cooper,
who is just abusing guys,
including JC Jackson in week five.
Yeah.
I think that's a fair evaluation.
I mean,
part of it is what you said.
Amari Cooper is one of the most underrated route runners in the NFL, one of the best route runners in the NFL. But and a big part of it is also like you like you alluded to briefly there, Adam. It's the scheme, too. I mean, look, when you're running slants flat so often, like the Panthers are when you're using, they're basically asking all these receivers to just win one on one routes from quick game. And that's not necessarily where we've seen DJ Moore do his best
work over the years. So I feel like if, if, if they can figure, I mean, they're going to stick
with McAdoo, so I don't really have too much hope there as far as things are changing on the
offensive side of the ball, but I never really felt like he was as much of a, like astute route
runner, I guess I would say, or as an amazing route runner as Amari Cooper. I thought he won
in different ways, um, ways, specifically and sometimes in the
past, it's been down the field on vertical routes. It's been after the catch. And that's just this
offense is just not utilizing him in that way. Okay. All right, Dan, any stats you want to throw
out here? I'm sure Jacob has plenty as well, but go ahead, Dan. Yeah, I just want to talk about
some usage stats because, you know, one thing I've always felt is true about fantasy football
is follow the volume, target the volume. Don't worry about the touchdowns those can regress
the volume will come for you and so one thing i thought was really interesting is that the way
the bills are using their running backs so in games where the bills have had blowout wins and
that seems to be becoming a norm for them this year and it's going to probably continue to be
that way devin singletary has just 17.9 combined fantasy points in those three blowout wins. And he's played anywhere between
52 and 59% of the snaps and shout out Chris towers for this. Cause I was looking at this earlier
now in the games where they're in it and it's close, he's played between 73 and 88% of the
snaps. And I think that's just a function of when you get out ahead, you want to give players like
Zach Moss and especially James Cook, you invested so much draft capital in some opportunities.
But I also think it's something you can use down the line to kind of predict when it's a good time
to play Devin Singletary and when it's not, because quite frankly, if he's averaging what,
less than six, about six points a game, a little fewer than six points a game in these blowout
wins, fantasy points, it's not somebody you want. I also thought it was interesting from a usage standpoint in this week was that Damian Pierce, he's up to
79% of the snaps. At this point, he is for sure locked in RB to match up the independent, in my
opinion. Um, and then a few other things I wanted to point out, there are some vultures going on in
the, in the, in the red zone area that I thought was really interesting. You had Tevin Coleman get
three touches inside the five yard line this week. That's something I think we should definitely keep an eye on.
You had Michael Carter or that we had Michael Carter get two touches inside the five,
Alexander Madison, two inside the five. And now Joshua Kelly, who's really kind of established
himself as this RB two for the chargers also had two touches inside the five. So just,
just something to keep an eye on as far as the vulturing goes. And one last thing I wanted to
point out was we're finally getting back to, and I, and I've had a feeling this would
happen when they got healthy at receiver, but I'm so happy to see the Bucks finally getting back to
a pass heavy team. They threw the ball 52 times in this game, despite leading for, I don't know,
by 20, 21 points, most of the game, that's what they have to be. And that's what this offense is.
That's where this offense is at its best
when Tom Brady is controlling it.
He's calling pass almost every play
because he feels like he can beat
whatever the defense is sending at them,
whether it be blitz or dropping coverage.
And so I'm happy to see that offense
morphing back into where they were
from a volume standpoint in the passing game
because that's going to be key to unlocking Brady
and all those players moving forward
from fantasy standpoint.
All right, you're up, Jacob.
What else we got?
Yeah, I love the notes on Damian Pierce.
His route involvement rate was over 50% in Week 5.
That's the first time this year it's been that high.
He has 11 targets over the past two games, and we saw him get some long down and distance snaps, just two,
but that's more than zero.
So he's heading in the right direction there. That's pretty exciting.
I think he's a top 15 guy
uh going forward like and if he gets you know if he continues to get more and more receiving work
then like yeah there's definitely top 12 potential for him uh ronda more we talked about last week
was used a lot more downfield in his first game back and they took him out of the slot with aj
green returning he did return to the slot which i think is actually a good thing for him um his
downfield usage wasn't quite as pronounced as we saw in his first game back but it was definitely more
prominent than last year and so he is running more intermediate and deep routes um and he's
being used in the slot which i think he has a much higher chance of success from uh than on
the perimeter so that's all good things for rondale and we saw the production kind of follow that this
week um i'll go back to cd lambee Lamb, who I compared DJ Moore to.
Really, the volume for him is just ridiculous. He's been targeted on 49% of Dallas's first downs.
So his target share, not just target per outrun, like his total target share on the team is 49%
on first down. Devonta Adams is the only player above 40%. So that's just pretty nuts. And then
we saw even with Michael Gallup back to like a full-time role cd lamb is still playing out in the perimeter they
move noah brown to the slot um i think this is all just really encouraging they're finally like
using him as like a true perimeter threat wide receiver one um and i think when deck comes back
we've legitimately got like top five upside for cd lamb like cd lamb or jamar chase i think is
honestly an interesting discussion
yeah um yeah well he's probably been better than chase my guess although i know chase had a huge
game in week one and chase has more points on the year but he does close okay and you know i know
people might be saying well god lamb wasn't good yesterday well they threw 16 times he had eight
targets right he had 50 of the targets uh all, here's some stats from me. This one's from ESPN Stats and Information.
Matthew Stafford went 6 of 15 for 59 yards
and an interception when he was pressured yesterday.
And he was 22 of 27 for 249 yards
and a touchdown when he wasn't pressured.
And he was pressured a lot yesterday.
So this is another guy that I think you can look at matchups,
and we didn't like him this week because Dallas gets a ton of pressure. I think you can look at matchups, and we didn't like him this
week because Dallas gets a ton of pressure. I think
they had one of the highest, if not the highest, pressure
rate in football going into the game.
When he plays a team that doesn't have a good pass rush,
it could actually be a week worth
starting for Stafford. Jalen
Warren, just over the last two weeks,
he just has been Pittsburgh's third down back.
And that is a crushing
blow to Najee Harris.
I said on HQ today,
he is going to be the biggest bust
in fantasy football this year.
The biggest non-injury bust in fantasy football
is going to be Najee Harris.
Does anybody disagree with that?
Ooh, let me think of who could actually top that.
The only person who you could think of right now
who could actually top that
from a draft capital standpoint would be...
Jamar Chase.
Jim Orr and Kyle Pitts.
No, he was a first-round pick.
Yeah, he was a first-rounder.
You have to think of him
as a first-round pick.
Those guys have been just not useful at all, though.
Could you throw Jamar Chase into the mix?
Yeah, but I think we're talking
significantly worse for Najee than Chase.
Yeah, long-term especially.
Yeah, Najee, yeah, you're,
you're nausea.
It's tough to feel.
You can kind of throw Jonathan Taylor even without the injury,
although he had a huge game in week one.
Um,
but I just,
yeah,
he's like Derek Henry has turned things around and,
and also Declan has turned things around.
Dalvin cook scored two touchdowns yesterday.
I don't see any hope for dodgy hairs.
Not to say he's going to be bad every week. That's not going to
happen. But his touches are
way down. He was like 22 touches
per game last year. He's somewhere around 16
this year. Carries way
down. He's not the third down back
the last two weeks.
He's losing the valuable touches too. Not
just raw touches. He needs those targets
and the routes and he just doesn't have them.
I dug into it when I saw your stat, Adam.
I thought it was possible that maybe his third down rate was down
because they've had a lot of third downs in the second half in blowouts,
but that's not the case.
It's in the first half as well.
He's just not getting the route running opportunities,
and that's going to crush his fantasy value.
It could change, and Kenny Pickett, maybe he brings life to the offense,
but right now a guy is averaging 3.2 yards per carry,
and that could go up,
but still just nothing good right now for Najee.
I would take Ken Walker over Najee Harris the rest of the season.
Is that crazy?
I would too.
No, I would definitely take Ken Walker over Najee Harris.
Yeah, all right.
How about Michael Gallup and Chris Godwin with their snaps limited?
Like I mentioned earlier,
Godwin 52% of the snaps in week four,
he played 83%.
Michael Gallup went from 64% to 55%.
That may have been because they were just running so much.
Travis Etienne played 11 more snaps than James Robinson in the fourth quarter.
And they were trailing for some of the fourth quarter,
obviously they lost.
But another guy, I mean, I think you talked about it with Devin Singletary. It's why I liked
Robinson. I thought for sure they were going to win. They're just going to be much harder to
predict than the Bills. But if they have a good game script, it's going to help Robinson a lot.
Brees Hall played 10 snaps on third down compared to one for Michael Carter.
It is Brees Hall, SZN.
And that's all I
got, guys. I don't know if you want to add anything else.
We talked a little
about Rashad White cutting into Leonard Fournette's role
last week, and we saw something
similar this week. White's snap rate was
actually up from 39% to 40%,
and Fournette ran 29
routes. Rashad White ran 22 routes
in Week 5. So, back-to-back weeks that it has not been like all Fournette.
Obviously, we saw Fournette get the touchdowns and all the catches,
but yeah, his route running opportunities were down a little bit.
I think Rashad White is going to be in your flex discussion
in full PPR only during the bye weeks.
I don't think he's going to be a great option,
but he's got a role, so that's good to see.
All right, we're going to take a break here.
When we come back, we'll get into our five big topics.
We'll take this quick break and talk Taysom Hill
on the other side.
Here we go.
We'll be right back on Fantasy.
Well, here we go to break.
We'll be right back.
And we are back.
Here we go into our five big topics,
starting with Taysom Hill. This one is from everyone in the world. five big topics, starting with Taysom Hill.
This one is from everyone in the world.
They all want to know about Taysom Hill,
the running back who has tight end eligibility, basically.
51% rostered.
Dan, is Taysom Hill a must-start?
We're going to go three minutes per topic here, guys.
Three minutes per topic.
You are on the clock.
Is Taysom Hill a must-start tight end going forward?
Yeah, he's a must-start tight end for me. And that's not to say I'm super high on Taysom Hill a must-start tight end going forward? Yeah, he's a must-start tight end for me.
And that's not to say I'm super high on Taysom Hill.
It's more to talk about the state of the tight end position right now.
But he's going to be factored in that red zone package every single week.
He can throw the ball, and we saw him.
If you're going to give him an open seam, he'll just rip the seam,
which he did for an easy touchdown.
And the way they designed those runs is really unique.
I've been watching some of those back today.
Just the way they use their blockers all in continuity with each other and sometimes how they use their tight ends on those plays with a lot of sniffers and a lot of people coming around to pin the pin pole concepts in that run game.
There's a lot of interesting things going on in the field when Taysom Hill is out there and they have designed runs for him. So I think the efficiency won't go down too much with Taysom
Hill. He's a really good red zone runner. And again, he has the opportunity to throw when you
give it to him. So as far as fantasy goes, the tight end position, we always talk about touchdown
or bust for a lot of these tight ends. Well, he gives you a much better chance at a touchdown on
a weekly basis than the majority of those guys you consider touchdown or bust.
Unfortunately, he doesn't ever catch the ball.
It's the one thing he doesn't do.
So if he doesn't score.
Better than non-BBR.
Yeah, for sure.
And the efficiency is going to go down because he's playing out of his mind right now.
He's basically the best rusher in the NFL.
If he minimum 20 carries, he has the fourth highest percentage of carries that are going for five or more yards, and the
highest percentage of carries going for 20 or more
yards. 20 or more yards on
24% of his carries. That's wild.
Yeah, and
but it's not a fluke
how good he is near the end zone. He has, over the last
three seasons, 13 carries from
inside the five-yard line, and Taysom
Miller scored on nine of those 13
carries. It's incredible.
Dennis Allen acknowledged that teams are going to make adjustments.
And he said,
basically we're going to,
we're going to mix things up to Jacob is Taysom Hill,
a must start tight end.
That's what I'm looking at tight ends now and trying to decide like who I
would rather start in a week to week basis.
You obviously have the top two.
And then I think Zach or it's Dallas Goddard.
Yeah.
Um,
I think Darren Waller, I'm puttingard. Yeah. I think Darren Waller.
I'm putting pits in there.
We're not benching pits.
Okay.
David Njoku, Tyler Higby.
Oh, Higby.
Yeah, I would say for sure.
Higby.
Njoku, I mean, I think I have to buy into Njoku.
Three good games.
You still need four more though.
You still need to find four more.
I know.
Right.
So we're in the 8-12 range.
Hawkinson's on a buy this week,
but when he comes back. Hawkinson came right a bye this week, but when he comes back...
Hawkinson came right back down to earth with 1.6 points this week.
But he didn't just come back down to earth.
He went underground.
He's been so bad other than we've seen.
The story of Hawkinson.
George Kittle.
Kittle, yeah, you'd like to think.
I think he's a top 12 tight end, I guess.
That's nuts.
He has more of a red zone role
than most of the people
we mentioned right there.
He's running three and a half
routes per game.
He needs a top 12 tight end.
I don't even know.
I mean, what bothers me
is that he shouldn't be
classified as a tight end.
You know.
No, he should not qualify.
All right.
Let's go to topic number two.
And I think another thing
just to think about from Taysom Hill
is it really
might hurt Kamara
and Jameis just he really might account
for a lot of touchdowns he's probably their
goal line guy alright Robert
I'm going to be honest with you guys
I can't figure this out I cannot
sit here and say oh this
is when Amari Cooper is going to be good
and this is when he's going to be bad so Robert wants to is when Amari Cooper is going to be good, and this is when he's going
to be bad. So Robert wants to know about Amari Cooper and the home road production. Is he the
wide receiver version of Drew Brees? Because all three of his good games have come at home,
and on the road, he had 17 yards and nine yards in two games. Dan,
is Amari Cooper the wide receiver version of Drew Brees?
I can't say I ever thought of it like that. So that's really interesting way to frame it.
Robert,
uh,
very,
very,
you know,
I would say with breeze,
it was more pronounced.
You could see it.
Like for example,
they were quite,
he,
he was,
he threw really well in that dome and he obviously had control and
commanded the offense when it wasn't loud on offense,
but with a receiver that doesn't really factor in as much.
And it's not like the Browns playing any kind of unique stadium with a dome or anything
like that.
So I would say it's probably more coincidence at this point, but it is like Adam said, originally,
the key point is it's hard.
It's becoming hard to predict when to start him.
He's almost becoming a player.
You want to put in your flex every week because there's, because when he hits those big weeks,
he's worth having in there.
Jacob, people are frustrated.
I'm sure because this is the start percentage for Cooper.
Week one, 33%, and he was bad. Week two, 28%, and he was great. Week three, 47%, and he was great.
Week four, his highest start percentage of the year, 88%, and he goes for one catch on nine
yards. Drops down to 66% start. It's still the second highest, but down 22% from the week before.
And he goes for 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets.
So is there any rhyme or reason
to Amari Cooper's success and failures?
I will say that his week four matchup against Atlanta
was not a good one.
They used a ton of cover two.
And that really, obviously they have talented corners
and they use a ton of cover two,
which really slows down perimeter receivers typically.
If you guys are interested in specific coverage analysis,
I've got a thread pinned on my Twitter account
where I go through and talk about each coverage scheme
and how it affects wide receivers, tight ends,
running backs, quarterbacks.
Yeah, that's great.
I do think that had something to do with it.
I was low on Amari that week and I wasn't really shocked
to see them go more to Njoku and the running backs there um it could be that i have
no idea on home road splits uh on a five game sample that that's probably nothing i think if
you want to look at it one other way week one was terrible 17 yards that was the only dreadful game
for jacoby brissett he threw for 147 yards. The last four games, Brissett has thrown
for 220 to 234
yards. He's been in a 14-yard
range four straight games, and Cooper's
been great in three of them.
That's a more optimistic
way of looking at Cooper's season
and saying, well, Brissett's probably not going to throw
for 147 yards. That was a terrible game.
230, that's
doable, and he's been good
in three of those four games when Brissette's been around
230. But I honestly
have no freaking idea. I am very interested in the
cover two thing, though, so
I'll be keeping that in mind going forward.
Alright, this comes from Robert Williams.
When to play banged up
but not 100% players like
Dalvin Cook versus when to sit active guys
like T. Higgins? Is there a risk reward point?
Is it relative to position or injury?
Jacob?
Uh,
yeah,
I mean,
this is a tough one to answer.
What would you say about approaching,
you know,
injured players going into their game?
Cause a modern St.
Brown was played about 25% of the snaps.
He was a huge bus.
You just never know.
Yeah.
You really don't know.
Like the Higgins thing,
we had no indication that it was something that
was like really going to limit him um he wasn't really thought it was a game time decision or
anything and then he'll he goes out there and plays 10 snaps and re-injures it like that's just
bad luck um i i think if you can avoid it like if you can avoid playing a player who you know
is injured and you know especially with an ankle or hamstring or something like that that does have a slightly higher re-injury risk like you might want to even for at you know for a lower projected
player um but yeah i i don't have much on this no i don't think you can no but you can look at it
week to week like for example we saw throughout the week dan campbell traditional tough guy coach
he's like if amon ross and brown can get there, he's going to get out there. But all the speculation
was that it would be on a pitch count. And then we look at it, he only runs 20 routes and there's
only feel for 20 snaps. So it was sometimes they, they tell you the story. Sometimes they don't.
T Higgins was an example where they didn't. So that sucks. But while it's hard to predict,
look through the, you know, read through every injury report and what the coach speak is saying all the way through to the game, because you might get some answers like Amon Ron St. Brown was a player who originally I went into the game thinking, you know, and he's on most of my teams. He's one of my highly, most highly drafted players. I'm thinking, you know, if he plays, you have to play him. But I took him out of lineups right before Sunday after reading a little bit more, because I felt like there would be, you know, it would, because the last comment Campbell made made was basically like even if he's just on the fields to decoy it helps us and that was the one
that was kind of like all right I have a feeling this is going to be a situation where they're
just using him to open up the rest of the rest of the offense which obviously didn't work
obviously it didn't work but it led me to believe to bench him so kind of just look through the
coach speak if you can if you can it's just a pretty impossible task because David Montgomery
played a lot more than I thought.
I'll tell you what, man. If anybody
wants to know what kind of mood I'm in tonight, I need
five points from Juju to win one
league. I need 13 points from
Juju to win a second league. Oh, baby.
If he doesn't get five, I mean, if he doesn't get 13,
fine. I can accept that. If he doesn't get
five, it's going to be
I'm not going to be on the show on Tuesday.
I'll tell you that.
You already have to face the fact that you lost to me
in another video. Yeah, I know. And actually
there's a decent chance I'm not going to be on the show Tuesday
just so everybody knows. I'm not sure I'll be able
to make it to that Waver Wire show.
This is from Eric Walsh.
Gino Smith versus
Tom Brady, rest of season.
Dan, when you're done with your watermelon drink there, who do you like better rest of season, Gino Smith versus Tom Brady rest of season. Dan, when you're done with your
word or melon drink there,
who do you like better rest of season,
Gino Smith or Tom Brady?
Yeah, I alluded to a little bit of why earlier.
It's Brady for me.
They're getting back to their pass-heavy ways,
which is what makes Brady such a valuable
fantasy asset in the first place.
You got to let him run that offense.
You got to let him cook.
Godwin's getting healthier.
Evans is a huge factor there.
Ultimately, their
offensive line is starting to play a little bit better too.
Obviously, this is not the greatest matchup to evaluate,
but Grady Jarrett is one of the best
interior defensive linemen from a pass rushing standpoint.
That was a difficult matchup. Obviously,
everyone saw the roughing the passer, which
should have never been called, but that's neither here
nor there. I'm going with Tom Brady
in this. You want to hear a great sound about that roughing the passer?
Yeah.
I just uploaded this.
This is from yesterday's podcast.
That was Heath.
Very excited.
Yeah, I know.
He made that noise.
There's either sighs or.
All right.
So what do you think?
Let's talk about Geno Smithith jacob i am thoroughly impressed
with gino smith what say the numbers yeah gino's been excellent the numbers are are
like really really exciting extremely efficient um and both his receivers are really balling out
like dk metcalf has been really impressive this year. I still have to take Brady.
I mean, Brady was the QB six this week, only threw one touchdown.
Right.
I definitely think this Brady.
Yeah.
I don't even want to focus on this part of the debate because you have to go
Brady.
But Gino, is he legit?
Can he keep this up?
I mean, it has been legit.
It hasn't been one of those.
Well, he's not playing well, but he's scoring fantasy points.
There is no question that Gino Smith is playing great football right now. The beat writers say it,
the stats say it. The film shows it. He made a throw this week that was the best throw by any
quarterback in the season. With the second touchdown pass to Lockett? No, that was another
maze. I mean, the post he's throwing to Lockett are on the money and tried. The throw where he
made where he had to roll to his left
didn't even have a chance to flip his hips back around.
The hardest throw a quarterback can make is rolling to the left
and then throws the ball downfield, layers it over the coverage,
drops it right in around the sideline.
It was arguably the best throw I've seen all year,
and I couldn't believe there was Geno Smith making it.
And he had a touchdown called back on a holding penalty,
a questionable holding penalty,
and DK Metcalf dropped the touchdown.
So he could have had a huge game.
He already did.
I mean, 30 points.
Could have had a 40-plus point game.
Jacob, I think I cut you off.
Anything else you want to add about Geno Smith?
I mean, can he keep it going?
I think so, yeah.
I think, like, everything we've seen is legit.
I wish that they were a little bit more pass-heavy.
Like, we haven't seen that really increase the way that I thought it might as he's been playing this well um true and it's possible that will be shot pennied out but i
wouldn't be surprised if they kind of continue to just be the same offense that we've seen
so it's gonna you know we're gonna need continued you know really efficient play from him um for him
to sustain this for fantasy um but maybe he can i We don't have a big enough sample size on him
throughout his career really to know who he is.
So it's possible that this is
who he is. We don't know. That's the thing,
right? He's not a total
failure in his career.
He started the first two years of his career,
and he's barely played since then.
He didn't have DK Metcalf and Tyler
Lockett. He had an aging
Eric Decker one year led the team in receiving
and Jeremy Curley led the team in receiving one year. So Dan, it's so funny. You think of Gino
Smith as kind of a failure, but he really hasn't played much since 2013 and 2014 as a rookie and
second year guy. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe Ben McAdoo was right after all, obviously for those who don't
know the reference, he famously benched Eli Manning for Geno Smith in the 2017 season,
and everybody went off on him.
Because the Giants had drafted a third-round rookie that year, Davis Webb.
They're like, if you're going to bench Eli for anyone,
bench him for the rookie.
There's no upside with Geno Smith.
What are you, crazy?
Ending Eli Manning's streak.
Ending his Iron Man streak.
Eli Manning's Iron Man streak.
All for to get Geno smith some snaps that nobody
cared about watching at least as a giants fan but i will say this you know arm talent was never the
issue with geno smith coming out everyone always used to blame the processing the post-nap processing
how well does he see the defense post now and i gotta say just from watching him this season
this shane waldron system is perfect for his skill set and he's seeing the field better than I've ever seen
him in his career. Some of those, like the throw to lock it, that is a really good vision throw.
I mean, he sees that locket wins at the top of his stem and is going to break back with leverage
toward the inside where he can throw that football and he puts it right on the money.
And so he's seeing the system, he's seeing the field really, really well within the system.
You hear Pete Carroll saying like, we're going to, we got to let Gino cook. And that's not
easy for Pete Carroll, a coach who wants to run the ball 50 times a game if it's up
to him so he's playing great within the system i think it's there's a chance it could keep up
it's weird because there's no nfl equivalent of this right adam like and jacob like who would
you even say is he anywhere remotely close to having this type of first five game stretch
this late in their career ryan fitzpatrick but he was always kind of doing it throughout his career in 2018 he had
three straight 400 yard games to start the year and then he got benched box right yeah okay uh so
he wasn't even but he wasn't playing great football throughout that stretch that was the difference he
was throwing a lot of interceptions he was playing you know poorly enough to be benched you know smith is not getting benched he's the starter the rest of the year and he's playing great football throughout that stretch. That was the difference. He was throwing a lot of interceptions. He was playing poorly enough to be benched.
Geno Smith is not getting benched. He's the starter the rest
of the year, and he's playing great.
It's just interesting to see. It's crazy.
It's the best story of the year as far as I'm concerned.
I think it's a great call.
And even better call,
Geno's Pizza out in Long Island.
They got one in Great Neck. They got one in Port Washington.
Unbelievable stuff.
Geno's Pizza. Okay, I haven't heard of it.
The best.
All right, last one.
Can we get some week six rookie running back breakouts?
This is from Adrian.
Tyler Algier, Ken Walker, and Brian Robinson.
Well, certainly Ken Walker's got a shot against the Cardinals.
They're 11th against running backs, but they're not very good.
And I guess I got to dig a little bit deeper into that.
Maybe they're better than I think,
but I don't consider it a tough matchup.
But Algier and Robinson, Jacob,
do you think we can get a breakout from those guys?
Algier gets the Niners, the best run defense in football,
and Brian Robinson gets the Bears.
Yeah, from a usage standpoint,
I was pretty encouraged by what we saw from out here this
week but like you said the matchup is not good and um if i remember right he's got a few pretty
tough matchups coming up um but his route is cincinnati carolina it's cincinnati is not bad
without dj reader carolina they're kind of neutral yeah his route involvement rate was 56 percent this week um
that's a lot higher than I would have expected that was higher than Landon Fournette Travis
Etienne this week um I think it was 11th among running backs so if they don't pass the time but
like he's out there um and not coming off the field it's not like he's only an early down guy
which I thought he kind of might be pigeonholed into that kind of a role um and then his rushing
efficiency metrics I'm digging up right now.
Do you guys have anything on Brian Robinson from this week?
Yeah, I think it's a problem.
I don't think either of these guys can really break out in their current roles.
I mean, Robinson is exactly the kind of running back we typically avoid, right?
He's exciting in the story, but he's not going to catch.
Okay, so they've played five games.
They've got 12 left. Do you think he even gets 20 catches this year if he plays every going to catch. Okay, so what they've played five games. They've got 12 left.
Do you think he even gets 20 catches this year if he plays every game?
No.
Yeah, I don't think so.
So it's not like Gibson's going to get zero carries.
If he breaks out, I don't think it's going to be this week.
But what do you think, Dan?
I don't think Brian Robinson has any path to fantasy success.
Great story.
Like you said, he was never really a runner.
I was high on coming into this draft class anyway.
He was more of a runner that was like kind of takes what's given to him.
And it is actually pretty good at processing in between the tackles, which is great for
Washington.
That's what they wanted.
But it doesn't really help, like you said, for fantasy purposes, unless he is for sure
the true every goal, every goal to go situation running back, which I don't even think he's
definitely bound to be in an offense that, in my opinion, isn't going to be scoring that much, which I don't even think he's definitely bound to be
in an offense that, in my opinion,
isn't going to be scoring that much,
especially as we get to the colder months.
So yeah, that's an avoid for me.
I don't see much breakout upside.
I do really like, we brushed over it quickly,
but I do really like the chance of Kenneth Walker
breaking out this week in this matchup.
I'm a little more optimistic on Robinson.
You know, I think there's still a place for guys who don't catch passes.
It's just I don't think he can be great.
Rashad Penny is a guy who would be worth starting
without catching passes.
Damian Harris.
You need touchdowns, so keep that in mind.
But it's probably going to take some time.
The guy's coming back from something pretty serious here
and wasn't able to practice at all.
Didn't have a preseason really.
A little bit of a preseason.
But, you know, I think it's a lot to ask for him to break out this week.
I had to drop him in a league, by the way.
I didn't have to drop him in two.
It just, you know, again, it was easy to stash him in an IR spot.
Now you've got to really question his value.
Sorry to cut you off there.
No, I was just going to say Algiers has been by far the worst running back
of Atlanta's backfield in terms of efficiency metrics.
Their running backs actually have a really high success rate, 56%.
Algiers is 36%.
Wow.
He has by far the lowest rushing EPA per snap, not avoiding tackles.
What does that mean, success rate? He has by far the lowest rushing EPA per snap, not avoiding tackles.
What does that mean, success rate?
The percentage of their rushes that were deemed a success based on EPA, based on the expectation of the play.
And so 56% is extremely high.
I'm really surprised by that.
Atlanta has such weird metrics.
Everyone on the team has a really high explosive rush rate,
except for him as well, all the other running backs.
And that jives with his profile coming out of college.
He was not an explosive back.
Todd Bowles said that they have maybe the best run schemes in football.
Yes, that I can get behind.
They do really block it up well, and they coach it well, which is why they have you know one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the nfl
right now despite not really having too much talent on that offensive line yeah another one
that i like to look at when just when comparing like among a backfield mates um is yards before
contact because you assume similar blocking um and so it's then it's kind of up to the running
back and are they finding the holes and he's by far the lowest there the team averages 2.8 yards he's at 1.8 yeah he's all jeer boo right yeah so
thank you guys they didn't laugh yesterday when i made that joke all jeer who didn't laugh david
heath uh they're a tough crowd they're a tougher crowd that's basically all right anything else fellas
or should we go because i gotta i got stuff to do here i gotta pay some bills adams adams got
to refix that air conditioning let him get to it you know what they did let me tell you oh no no i
can't i shouldn't even say it on the air that's not they scuffed up my they scuffed up my walls
so now i gotta take care of that. Repaint them?
Yeah.
I think it might be more than that.
They really messed up the walls taking the condenser upstairs.
I don't want to say this as if I'm the type of person who is the opposite.
But Adam, you definitely strike me as someone who is not going to be touching up those walls yourself.
You will pay someone to do it, correct?
Of course.
Are you kidding?
You shouldn't touch... The thing is,
you really want a professional
to do that.
Some people can do it,
I feel like.
We're not two of them.
No, oh goodness, no.
I can't do anything.
I mean, my wife does
all of that handy stuff.
Everything.
The only thing that I do
that she won't is
kill all the roaches.
And with that...
Why do you have so many
roaches in your house. I've given
them names with that. We're out
of here. God for
for Dan and Jacob and Thomas.
I'm Adam. Thanks for watching and listening.
Everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire.
I may not be on the show, but if not,
it'll be Jamie and Dave. So if
you don't like me, tomorrow's the show for you.
See you then. Bye.