Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score and Five Big Topics (10/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 10, 2022

Let's get nerdy with some advanced stats and usage stats coming out of Week 5. First, we recap Bengals-Ravens with our thoughts on J.K. Dobbins, Ja'Marr Chase and more ... News and notes (13:10) with ...some waiver wire talk. How much FAB for Ken Walker? And what do we think of the Panthers with a new head coach? Then we'll give you the advanced stats, snap shares, third down roles and more to know from Week 5 (20:15). D.J. Moore has encouraging stats with PJ Walker. Najee Harris appears to be out on third downs. Matthew Stafford thrives when he is not pressured ... Five Big Topics! Is Taysom Hill a must-start tight end (33:25)? How do we predict Amari Cooper's big weeks (36:45)? How should you approach players who are playing hurt (40:00)? Geno Smith vs. Tom Brady (42:40) and potential breakout running backs in Week 6 (48:30) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:16 Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Are we buying Geno Smith or Taysom Hill? Can Brian Robinson or Tyler Algier break out in week six? What are our thoughts on the Panthers offense with a new head coach going forward? We're going to update you on the big injuries, the waiver wire, the stats you need to know. This is Beyond the Box score here. Advanced stats from simple people.
Starting point is 00:02:03 Adam Azer with Jacob Gibbs and Dan Schneier. Sorry, if you can come up with a better line, Jacob, then by all means, but you haven't suggested anything. What am I supposed to do with that? Come on. What's up, Jacob Gibbs? You ready for the game tonight, big Chiefs fan? You ready? Oh, yeah. Yeah, we pretty much always kill the
Starting point is 00:02:20 Raiders, so I'm feeling pretty good about this. Let me tell you something about Jacob, because I talk a lot of trash about Schneier, and I'm going to lose to Schneier in a fantasy league this week, which he probably wasn't even aware of, but it's one of the worst feelings you can have. That's the best part. It's one of the worst feelings you can have in fantasy is losing to Schneier, but it's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:02:36 Jacob, two years ago, was so confident about the Super Bowl. Just like what he just said right now. He was so confident. He thought it was going to be a runaway. So I guess you haven't learned anything in the last two years, Jacob. Yeah, I guess not.
Starting point is 00:02:51 I was hoping to never have to bring that one up again. That was embarrassing. Dan, do me a favor. Pronounce this word for me before we move any further. W-A-T-E-R. Watermelon. Water. I have a perfect... This is one of the best drinks on the market right now.
Starting point is 00:03:06 Unfortunately, I'm using a green screen, so you can't fully see it, but it is Trader Joe's sparkling watermelon juice. Literally as good as it gets. He says it with a W-A-R-T-E-R, watermelon juice. But for you, it's watermelon juice. For those of you at home. Orange, water, Florida.
Starting point is 00:03:23 That's the way to say these words. The best. All right. What's up, Schneier? How you doing, man? How was your weekend? uh for the water florida that's the way that's the way to say these words the best all right what's up schneier how you doing but how was your weekend doing great and i'm now scrambling to find out which league i'm beating you in i'm winning in basically all leagues as usual as you mentioned on previous podcasts my two and oh start trying to find it now it's not the fantasy it's to qb i started russell wilson and uh trevor lawrence so super flex yeah yeah so ah well here we go It's 2QB. I started Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. Superflex, yeah. Well, here we go. I'm taking a look now. No, this is a different one because I'm actually losing to Oil of Alave in this one.
Starting point is 00:03:53 That's me. That's Oil of Alave. So I just haven't looked and projection is great. Oh, yes, it is. Clyde and Juju and Carlson. And I'm only down nine points to Adam. What an embarrassment Adam has been in this league. He's about to drop to two and three. I'm about to rise to four and one. It's unbelievable how good I am in these leagues. An embarrassment. I can't
Starting point is 00:04:12 disagree. My quarterback's terrible. Did I even set my lineup this week? That's the embarrassment. All right, so let's get into the show here. We'll have our five big topics. We'll talk to you about... I didn't even realize that Najee Harris is off the field on third downs, basically, for Jalen Warren, two weeks in a row.
Starting point is 00:04:29 And we'll talk about that and some other things. Let's start with Baltimore 19, Cincinnati 17, Justin Tucker with, of course, the game winning field goal. The Bengals have lost three games this year, all of them on last second game winning field goals, or game losing field goals in their case. That's
Starting point is 00:04:43 incredible. The Ravens are 19-2 in field goals in their case. That's incredible. The Ravens are 19-2 in primetime home games under John Harbaugh. Thank you to the Associated Press recap for that one. T. Higgins left with an ankle injury. He played 10 snaps. We are not certain about his status for Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints. Marcus Williams, Baltimore safety, has a dislocated wrist. He is on IR. He's going to miss a lot of time.
Starting point is 00:05:06 It's not a season ender. But that's the second big defensive back injury the Ravens have had. This is a secondary that was ranked very, very highly by people who ranked those things before the season started. Things changing now. But anyway, Jacob, give me your takeaways, fantasy takeaways from Baltimore and Cincinnati. I thought the way Devin Duvernay was used was interesting. He ran around on 28 to 35 dropbacks, seven targets.
Starting point is 00:05:29 They got him involved as a rusher as well. A lot of pre-snap motion for him as well. So if Rashad Bateman remains out, then he's somebody who could be fantasy relevant. And then it was really good to see Mark Andrews just back to dominating. I know a lot of people kind of panicked last week. There was like, I mean, even on the podcast,
Starting point is 00:05:49 we recorded kind of a narrative like, is it just Travis Kelsey and no one else? It's like, no, it's just one bad week. It was like the worst week we've ever seen from Andrews. And like, he's going to be fine. Yeah, another big game for him, 89 yards. He has four touchdowns and three games with 22.9 or more PPR fantasy points. Kenny and Drake got a little bit more involved than I would have liked.
Starting point is 00:06:10 I didn't know this, but Jamie said on FFT today that John Harbaugh said that J.K. Dobbins was on a snap count. Oh, okay. Yeah, I didn't catch that either. Solved a lot of mysteries for me and took away a lot of content because I was definitely going to go on a, I'm very worried about Jacob. I'm still worried about him, but at least we know what happened here, Jacob. With the snap count, you know, I don't know if you noticed, but Chris Godwin only played about 52% of the snaps, barely played in the fourth quarter. They did have a 21 nothing lead, but you know, I'm, I don't know if we should get into this now, but you know, it's worth, it's worth remembering. I was very high
Starting point is 00:06:45 on those two players in particular, Dobbins and Godwin, but guys coming off of these major injuries, it's kind of up in the air, you know, and being on a snap count
Starting point is 00:06:54 a week after playing a lot is a little concerning for me for Dobbins, so that was definitely disappointing. Dan, how about you? What stood out to you in this game?
Starting point is 00:07:02 By the way, Devin Duvernay is only about 50% rostered, so he's got the Giants this week and definitely the number one wide receiver for them with Bateman out. Dan, what do you got? Well, I think from a football standpoint, the most interesting thing to me was watching a Ravens defense
Starting point is 00:07:15 that has made a living on being one of those most man coverage, single high, middle of the field, close safety look defenses, try to play zone. And it worked because they only allowed six. The only, the Bengals only attempted six passes that traveled 11 yards in the air or more, and they couldn't get anything going that way. The Ravens were able to take that away. And this is against the Ravens defense that entered this game tied for the lead for allowing
Starting point is 00:07:38 the most passes of 11 plus yards in the secondary. So that I thought was incredibly interesting. And then to add to that, despite the Ravens playing the bangles this way, you know, with more zone looks lighter boxes, Joe Mixon was just once again, incredibly disappointing. I want to shout out rich rebar for these stats because they're truly incredible. Mixon has now now after last night where he saw a ton of ton more light boxes, he now leads the NFL with runs against light boxes and a light box just means, you know, you have more offensive linemen blocking than the actual defenders who are
Starting point is 00:08:10 in the box. So say you have five offensive linemen in a one tight end set, there's five, six, there's six guys and there's five guys in the box facing it. That means a four man defensive line, one linebacker, three defensive line, two linebackers. The same goes for when you add two tight ends and you have seven guys blocking. Anyway, on those carries, Mixon averages 3.64 yards per carry. The league rate on these is 5.04 yards per carry. And that's for the season or that was last night?
Starting point is 00:08:35 That's for the season. That's for the season. And he wasn't much better last night. He's lower in yards prior to contact per carry. He's 1.36. It's 1.66 league wide. 2.2 yards after contact per carry against light boxes. The league average is 3.39.
Starting point is 00:08:49 And then obviously the big one, at least for fantasy, 5.4% touchdown, first down to touchdown rush percentage against lighter boxes. League average is 22.1%. So Joe Mixon right now is not playing good football. He's getting what you want, light boxes. This is how the Ravens tried to play the Bengals. They took away the passing game, and Mixon wasn't able to capitalize.
Starting point is 00:09:08 He was good. I mean, this was by far his best game. Five of his nine longest runs all season came in this game, or five of his eight longest runs or something like that. Five of his eight longest runs of the season came in this game. He had 14 games. This was by far the best game, and he came up about a foot short of a touchdown, too.
Starting point is 00:09:27 So I do feel like you're being a little harsh. I mean, a season-long thing on Mixon, yeah. I feel like maybe he got things turned around a little bit in this game. It didn't look like it to me, just given how light. I mean, look, they're daring you to run every play. You should be able to tear it up, especially with an offensive line that has a few more pieces added to the mix they look like they were blocking a lot better specifically caris on the inside
Starting point is 00:09:48 i don't know to me it just feels like it's not there for him i'm not seeing explosive runs i'm not seeing much after contact i'm not seeing a lot of force missed tackles in the open field from mixin all the things i look for to kind of evaluate a running back independent of his cast well i do agree about the explosive runs he's not He's not really ripping any big ones off there, but 5.6 yards per carry yesterday for Joe Mixon was encouraging, almost had the touchdown, ended up being a QB sneak touchdown for Joe Burrow late in the game to give them the lead.
Starting point is 00:10:17 All right, what are we thinking about Jamar Chase at this point? 12 targets, 7 catches for 50 yards. I really thought Marcus Peters did a very good job against him. And I don't know. I can't diagnose it. I'm not smart enough to figure out what's going on with Jamar Chase. But this is now, look at his freaking ADOT this year in five games. 6.8, 6.3, 12.4, 18.5, 4.6.
Starting point is 00:10:40 He has already matched the amount of games from 2021 with an a dot under nine yards three times already and they're all under seven yards so i don't know the offense is not the same jacob and if you know if you were redrafting today i mean is jamar chase still a top five wide receiver i think it's clear cup and jefferson and for me i would have to put digs ahead of him is jamar chase still you know a top five receiver for you? No, I don't think so. He's kind of on the borderline for me going into the year, and I got a lot of heat for that.
Starting point is 00:11:14 No, I think you could come up with a decent number of guys you put ahead of him. I think the point that Dan brought up about Baltimore's defense in this game is really interesting, and I just looked into it a little bit more. They only use man coverage 18% of the time, and they use cover four or cover six over 40% of the time. And prior to this week, they'd only use that combination on 27% of defensive plays.
Starting point is 00:11:33 And as a result, we saw Joe Burrow's average depth of target was 3.6 yards this week. So you mentioned that they are a little bit banged up in the secondary. If they go to a schematic change in how they approach things things defensively that could really be something to keep an eye on going forward and that you know definitely could have affected jamar in this spot i think part of that was just how they wanted to match up against the bangles i think a lot of teams are going to do this from now on and one thing i didn't like about the bangles they came out with a really good plan they got as far as utilizing chase they got him featured early with that quick
Starting point is 00:12:05 hitter on the screen that's the type of if you're facing this kind of defense that's playing a lot of zone it's not trying to take away the big plays that should have been a bigger part of their game plan they tried to do something similar not similar but they tried to do something in the same vein a little bit later when they got him on that run on that kind of end around play but you need to have more of those quick hitters around the line of scrimmage get the ball and chase his hand and that's something we saw him do last year. He broke off some big plays in the screen game. I was surprised they didn't try to come back to that more often in the second half, uh, just to kind of try to counter what they were doing on defense. Yeah. One thing on
Starting point is 00:12:35 Jamar is, um, through the first four weeks, he was not targeted on first downs, hardly at all. Um, he had eight targets on 58 routes runs. So 13.8% of his routes run on first down. Did you have a target that was way up last week? He had six first down targets over 40% of his routes run. So it's good that they're at least, you know, trying to be intentional about getting, getting the ball. Obviously that coincided with T Higgins being out. Sure.
Starting point is 00:12:57 Yep. They really were. I mean, he did have 12 targets. Just, I thought really good coverage by Peter's disappointing that chase couldn't really beat him. All right. We'll talk about Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst on the waiver wire.
Starting point is 00:13:07 Tyler Boyd more in shallow leagues. He's 70% rostered. Hayden Hurst has had two games this year with more than 27 yards. Both of them have been the games that T. Higgins left with injury. So 31% rostered. It's an interesting play at least for him.
Starting point is 00:13:23 And let me just see their math. They're at New Orleans next week. And then, yeah, for the Ravens, I think we already covered it. Hopefully we can get better performance from J.K. Dobbins going forward. But he was apparently on a snap count. Fantasy Football Today is here to help you dominate your fantasy league all season. And now you can represent your favorite podcast with official Fantasy Football Today gear only found on the CBS Sports Store.
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Starting point is 00:14:22 20 for 20% off your order. News and notes. The Panthers fired their head coach and their defensive coordinator. They did not fire Ben McAdoo. So, Dan, does this help DJ Moore? Does it do anything here? Because Baker Mayfield's going to miss some time, apparently. He wants to play, but he's got a high ankle sprain,
Starting point is 00:14:49 so it looks, for the time being, like it's going to be PJ Walker. Yeah, I don't think this helps the passing offense. I'm really surprised they went this route. I know we had been tipped off that they might earlier in the season. And I guess Ben McAdoo does have some experience, but I actually think what Phil snow, the defensive coordinator was doing over there on the inside of the ball was really good stuff. Schematically speaking, there was some great takeaways from that Panthers defense. It's hard when you're on the field for so long because your offense is so inept and the offense is going to stay the same. This is Ben McAdoo's offense that they were running. So to me, nothing really changes from the schematic standpoint, but I do think there could be a boost from putting BJ Walker on the field. I hate to say it, but Baker Mayfield has been playing
Starting point is 00:15:19 unbelievably bad football for the first five weeks. I'm not, I'm not here to say BJ Walker is going to play much improved version, but there is a potential for him to just lock on to D.J. Moore, which would be great for Moore, and also have a little bit more ability to make broken plays. He scrambles here, he throws down the field on a broken play, something I think D.J. Moore and really all those receivers on that team can take advantage of. So I think there's a chance for a little bit more explosive plays, but I don't expect to see too much differently schematically with McAdoo now as the head coach. Just to go back to last year, PJ Walker did make one start. He was 22 of 29 for 167 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. He faced the Arizona Cardinals. Cam Newton also played in that game. He threw a
Starting point is 00:16:02 touchdown and he ran for a touchdown. So they moved the ball fairly well. I don't know if they moved the ball well, but they scored two touchdowns, but they were both from Cam Newton, one throwing, one rushing. McCaffrey had 10 catches on 10 targets. DJ Moore had four catches on seven targets. Robbie Anderson led all the wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:16:21 McCaffrey led all receivers with 66 yards. Robbie Anderson had 37 yards and a touchdown. So it wasn't pretty. Could be better this time around. Who knows? So yeah, it's a high ankle sprain right now for Baker Mayfield and a new head coach. They are at the Rams and then the Bucs
Starting point is 00:16:35 their next two weeks. Russell Wilson has a lat injury, which is part of the reason why I'm going to lose to Schneier in the 2QB league. Teddy Bridgewater, he's beat up, we know that. I saw an interesting quote from Kirk Cousins, who completed the first 17 passes of the game on Sunday. And again, just a reminder that there are a lot of quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:16:57 with new systems, and it takes time. And Kirk Cousins said, I'm not where I was at the end of last season in that old system, but we're developing it, and we're getting there, and I'm not where I was at the end of last season in that old system, but we're developing it and we're getting there. And I'm excited about that continued growth. So you just just something to keep in mind. We also know Damian Harris got hurt. Ty Montgomery is eligible to come off IR, but is not going to this week in all likelihood.
Starting point is 00:17:17 And that would only help from Andre Stevenson. Rashad Penny is out for the season. And that's the big one here. So, Jacob, what do you think about Ken Walker, who got most of his yards on one carry, a 69-yard touchdown against the Saints? But Ken Walker, I assume we've got to consider him a must-roster player.
Starting point is 00:17:35 If he's available, go get him, and he's available in 32% of CBS Sports Leagues. Do you think Ken Walker's going to be successful? And they just give you their schedule. They have two really bad run defenses, especially in week six, a week seven rather, but it's the Cardinals and the chargers up next for Seattle.
Starting point is 00:17:54 I definitely, it could be, it's a really limited sample size. We haven't, I'm so far, but he's been very efficient. He's breaking tackles at one of the highest rates of any running backs with, you know,
Starting point is 00:18:02 20 plus carries yards after contact really, really high as well of any running backs with, you know, 20 plus carries, um, yards after contact, really, really high as well. And then obviously that, you know, backs up what we've seen from the collegiate level, really efficient as a rusher. I'm really curious what his usage will be like. I really don't know if the sample size we have when, from the point Penny went down last week is large enough to draw any conclusions from. Um, but if he can get the passing down work,
Starting point is 00:18:25 then yeah, we're looking at a top 12, top 15 running back. So it's definitely exciting when these matchups coming up are going to give him a chance to really blow up. So I think he's definitely somebody you've got to... I mean, how much are you guys... I guess you're going to have a waiver I show, but are you prioritizing like 30%, 40%, 50% to get this type of player on the regular?
Starting point is 00:18:43 This is the type of player I think you spend all of it. Yeah. If he's available. You know, I'd rather have, let's say, Tony Pollard's two roster. I'm just trying to think of handcuffs that are actually available that would be better in theory than Ken Walker.
Starting point is 00:19:02 Rashad White. Rashad White, I think, would be. I think I'd take Walker over white. Honestly, really? I don't think it, I don't, I don't think it'll go all to white.
Starting point is 00:19:11 If Leonard for net goes down with a major injury, I think there's a really good chance. It could go majority to Walker. Like I still think he, Sean Vaughn will get mixed. Like they'll have different players. They can mix in almost all the carries. We'll go to Walker.
Starting point is 00:19:22 And after in the second half, I mean, Rashad, Penny paid, played three snaps in the second half. DJ Dallas played three snaps. Ken Walker played 15. Right. And they didn't run that many plays in the second half.
Starting point is 00:19:32 So he was pretty much, you know, on the field for most of those snaps. Yeah, but bottom line is that I can't think of too many guys, if any, that have more upside, more appeal than Ken Walker if the starter got hurt that aren't already rostered in every league. Okay, like Tony Pollard, that have more upside, more appeal than Ken Walker if the starter got hurt that aren't already rostered in every league. Like Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, those guys
Starting point is 00:19:49 don't count. So who are you saving it for? Khalil Herbert? Sure, he could be there, but I don't know what his roster percentage is now, but he could get dropped in theory. Yeah, but go get him. Absolutely be aggressive here. Yeah. Alright, then a couple other injuries.
Starting point is 00:20:05 We'll keep an eye on Tyreek Hill and the 49ers. They two huge losses. Emmanuel Mosley's out for the year towards ACL starting cornerback. Also safety Jimmy Ward. I forgot about him. I don't know what his status is, but Nick Bosa is the other one. We'll keep an eye on.
Starting point is 00:20:20 He left with a groin injury. All right. How about these wacky stats? We don't even have to analyze them, but just for you football fans out there the patriots are now five and oh under bill belichick with quarterbacks who were drafted outside the first round making their nfl making their first start five and oh when quarterbacks drafted outside the first round make their first start the rest of the the NFL is 30-80 since Belichick became the Patriots coach in 2000.
Starting point is 00:20:49 Amazing! These are all from the Associated Press game recaps. The Lions are the second team in the past 25 seasons to enter the game number one in the NFL in scoring and get shut out. Taysom Hill is
Starting point is 00:21:03 the third NFL player since 1970 with 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns and a passing touchdown in the same game according to ESPN. That was actually from ESPN, sorry. The others were LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown. And
Starting point is 00:21:19 this one was crazy. Can you believe Jalen Ramsey recorded the first sack of his career yesterday? Yeah, that one's hard to believe. Is that weird? I'm going to pro football reference just to confirm it, but I should have done that before the show, but I'm pretty sure that is real.
Starting point is 00:21:37 Sacks, any sacks for you? Nope, first sack of his career. Unbelievable. 96 games for Jalen Ramsey, never had a sack. All right. How about the topics, the stats that we're actually going to talk about? Jacob, why don't you kick it off?
Starting point is 00:21:50 Yeah, just on DJ Moore, I wanted to throw this in. He's run 132 routes with PJ Walker at quarterback, which is not a truly trustworthy sample size, but it's not totally insignificant either. He's been targeted on 24% of his routes, average 2.1 yards per outrun. So those are above his career averages and are definitely above what we've seen from this year and the comp i would
Starting point is 00:22:10 make is to cd lamb um where you know everyone just kind of assumed um that he was screwed when he lost deck but just like yeah i don't think it matters too much what level of quarterback plate is if as long as it's someone who will feed him. And I think that he could get fed. I mean, we've seen CeeDee Lambie, the wide receiver, nine over the past four weeks. I think if DJ Moore gets fed, he's talented enough that he could be still a top 20 receiver, even in a really inept offense led by PJ Walker.
Starting point is 00:22:39 So maybe I'm just looking for reasons to be back in on DJ Moore. Well, Dan, have you watched the film? You have, right? Because I've watched a lot of DJ Moore. I watched every route that he ran in this game, and I watched two weeks ago. I didn't watch week four. I do not think he's getting open very often.
Starting point is 00:22:59 I am a big amateur at this, but I watched Amari Cooper's routes and then DJ Moore's routes. And Amari Cooper is an exceptional route runner and DJ Moore looks anything but to me. And I don't know if that's a scheme thing, if they're just not well-designed plays or what, but if I didn't know how much everyone that I work with love DJ Moore going into the year,
Starting point is 00:23:21 I would not think much of DJ Moore just based on what I've seen. Um, maybe he'll be more motivated now. I've a lot of frustration like sometimes he gets open he doesn't get open often but when he does baker mayfield seems to miss him and then he gets really frustrated uh or well a little frustrated anyway i shouldn't say that but i i don't know man like is he really that good i i i i don't know if you've noticed anything cause I've specifically been looking at DJ more. And again, I want to press, I am not a professional here.
Starting point is 00:23:50 I'm an amateur at analyzing guys running routes, but it was night and day comparing him to Amari Cooper, who is just abusing guys, including JC Jackson in week five. Yeah. I think that's a fair evaluation. I mean, part of it is what you said.
Starting point is 00:24:03 Amari Cooper is one of the most underrated route runners in the NFL, one of the best route runners in the NFL. But and a big part of it is also like you like you alluded to briefly there, Adam. It's the scheme, too. I mean, look, when you're running slants flat so often, like the Panthers are when you're using, they're basically asking all these receivers to just win one on one routes from quick game. And that's not necessarily where we've seen DJ Moore do his best work over the years. So I feel like if, if, if they can figure, I mean, they're going to stick with McAdoo, so I don't really have too much hope there as far as things are changing on the offensive side of the ball, but I never really felt like he was as much of a, like astute route runner, I guess I would say, or as an amazing route runner as Amari Cooper. I thought he won in different ways, um, ways, specifically and sometimes in the past, it's been down the field on vertical routes. It's been after the catch. And that's just this offense is just not utilizing him in that way. Okay. All right, Dan, any stats you want to throw
Starting point is 00:24:55 out here? I'm sure Jacob has plenty as well, but go ahead, Dan. Yeah, I just want to talk about some usage stats because, you know, one thing I've always felt is true about fantasy football is follow the volume, target the volume. Don't worry about the touchdowns those can regress the volume will come for you and so one thing i thought was really interesting is that the way the bills are using their running backs so in games where the bills have had blowout wins and that seems to be becoming a norm for them this year and it's going to probably continue to be that way devin singletary has just 17.9 combined fantasy points in those three blowout wins. And he's played anywhere between 52 and 59% of the snaps and shout out Chris towers for this. Cause I was looking at this earlier
Starting point is 00:25:34 now in the games where they're in it and it's close, he's played between 73 and 88% of the snaps. And I think that's just a function of when you get out ahead, you want to give players like Zach Moss and especially James Cook, you invested so much draft capital in some opportunities. But I also think it's something you can use down the line to kind of predict when it's a good time to play Devin Singletary and when it's not, because quite frankly, if he's averaging what, less than six, about six points a game, a little fewer than six points a game in these blowout wins, fantasy points, it's not somebody you want. I also thought it was interesting from a usage standpoint in this week was that Damian Pierce, he's up to 79% of the snaps. At this point, he is for sure locked in RB to match up the independent, in my
Starting point is 00:26:14 opinion. Um, and then a few other things I wanted to point out, there are some vultures going on in the, in the, in the red zone area that I thought was really interesting. You had Tevin Coleman get three touches inside the five yard line this week. That's something I think we should definitely keep an eye on. You had Michael Carter or that we had Michael Carter get two touches inside the five, Alexander Madison, two inside the five. And now Joshua Kelly, who's really kind of established himself as this RB two for the chargers also had two touches inside the five. So just, just something to keep an eye on as far as the vulturing goes. And one last thing I wanted to point out was we're finally getting back to, and I, and I've had a feeling this would
Starting point is 00:26:49 happen when they got healthy at receiver, but I'm so happy to see the Bucks finally getting back to a pass heavy team. They threw the ball 52 times in this game, despite leading for, I don't know, by 20, 21 points, most of the game, that's what they have to be. And that's what this offense is. That's where this offense is at its best when Tom Brady is controlling it. He's calling pass almost every play because he feels like he can beat whatever the defense is sending at them,
Starting point is 00:27:12 whether it be blitz or dropping coverage. And so I'm happy to see that offense morphing back into where they were from a volume standpoint in the passing game because that's going to be key to unlocking Brady and all those players moving forward from fantasy standpoint. All right, you're up, Jacob.
Starting point is 00:27:25 What else we got? Yeah, I love the notes on Damian Pierce. His route involvement rate was over 50% in Week 5. That's the first time this year it's been that high. He has 11 targets over the past two games, and we saw him get some long down and distance snaps, just two, but that's more than zero. So he's heading in the right direction there. That's pretty exciting. I think he's a top 15 guy
Starting point is 00:27:45 uh going forward like and if he gets you know if he continues to get more and more receiving work then like yeah there's definitely top 12 potential for him uh ronda more we talked about last week was used a lot more downfield in his first game back and they took him out of the slot with aj green returning he did return to the slot which i think is actually a good thing for him um his downfield usage wasn't quite as pronounced as we saw in his first game back but it was definitely more prominent than last year and so he is running more intermediate and deep routes um and he's being used in the slot which i think he has a much higher chance of success from uh than on the perimeter so that's all good things for rondale and we saw the production kind of follow that this
Starting point is 00:28:21 week um i'll go back to cd lambee Lamb, who I compared DJ Moore to. Really, the volume for him is just ridiculous. He's been targeted on 49% of Dallas's first downs. So his target share, not just target per outrun, like his total target share on the team is 49% on first down. Devonta Adams is the only player above 40%. So that's just pretty nuts. And then we saw even with Michael Gallup back to like a full-time role cd lamb is still playing out in the perimeter they move noah brown to the slot um i think this is all just really encouraging they're finally like using him as like a true perimeter threat wide receiver one um and i think when deck comes back we've legitimately got like top five upside for cd lamb like cd lamb or jamar chase i think is
Starting point is 00:29:04 honestly an interesting discussion yeah um yeah well he's probably been better than chase my guess although i know chase had a huge game in week one and chase has more points on the year but he does close okay and you know i know people might be saying well god lamb wasn't good yesterday well they threw 16 times he had eight targets right he had 50 of the targets uh all, here's some stats from me. This one's from ESPN Stats and Information. Matthew Stafford went 6 of 15 for 59 yards and an interception when he was pressured yesterday. And he was 22 of 27 for 249 yards
Starting point is 00:29:36 and a touchdown when he wasn't pressured. And he was pressured a lot yesterday. So this is another guy that I think you can look at matchups, and we didn't like him this week because Dallas gets a ton of pressure. I think you can look at matchups, and we didn't like him this week because Dallas gets a ton of pressure. I think they had one of the highest, if not the highest, pressure rate in football going into the game. When he plays a team that doesn't have a good pass rush,
Starting point is 00:29:54 it could actually be a week worth starting for Stafford. Jalen Warren, just over the last two weeks, he just has been Pittsburgh's third down back. And that is a crushing blow to Najee Harris. I said on HQ today, he is going to be the biggest bust
Starting point is 00:30:09 in fantasy football this year. The biggest non-injury bust in fantasy football is going to be Najee Harris. Does anybody disagree with that? Ooh, let me think of who could actually top that. The only person who you could think of right now who could actually top that from a draft capital standpoint would be...
Starting point is 00:30:25 Jamar Chase. Jim Orr and Kyle Pitts. No, he was a first-round pick. Yeah, he was a first-rounder. You have to think of him as a first-round pick. Those guys have been just not useful at all, though. Could you throw Jamar Chase into the mix?
Starting point is 00:30:36 Yeah, but I think we're talking significantly worse for Najee than Chase. Yeah, long-term especially. Yeah, Najee, yeah, you're, you're nausea. It's tough to feel. You can kind of throw Jonathan Taylor even without the injury, although he had a huge game in week one.
Starting point is 00:30:53 Um, but I just, yeah, he's like Derek Henry has turned things around and, and also Declan has turned things around. Dalvin cook scored two touchdowns yesterday. I don't see any hope for dodgy hairs. Not to say he's going to be bad every week. That's not going to
Starting point is 00:31:08 happen. But his touches are way down. He was like 22 touches per game last year. He's somewhere around 16 this year. Carries way down. He's not the third down back the last two weeks. He's losing the valuable touches too. Not just raw touches. He needs those targets
Starting point is 00:31:24 and the routes and he just doesn't have them. I dug into it when I saw your stat, Adam. I thought it was possible that maybe his third down rate was down because they've had a lot of third downs in the second half in blowouts, but that's not the case. It's in the first half as well. He's just not getting the route running opportunities, and that's going to crush his fantasy value.
Starting point is 00:31:41 It could change, and Kenny Pickett, maybe he brings life to the offense, but right now a guy is averaging 3.2 yards per carry, and that could go up, but still just nothing good right now for Najee. I would take Ken Walker over Najee Harris the rest of the season. Is that crazy? I would too. No, I would definitely take Ken Walker over Najee Harris.
Starting point is 00:32:01 Yeah, all right. How about Michael Gallup and Chris Godwin with their snaps limited? Like I mentioned earlier, Godwin 52% of the snaps in week four, he played 83%. Michael Gallup went from 64% to 55%. That may have been because they were just running so much. Travis Etienne played 11 more snaps than James Robinson in the fourth quarter.
Starting point is 00:32:21 And they were trailing for some of the fourth quarter, obviously they lost. But another guy, I mean, I think you talked about it with Devin Singletary. It's why I liked Robinson. I thought for sure they were going to win. They're just going to be much harder to predict than the Bills. But if they have a good game script, it's going to help Robinson a lot. Brees Hall played 10 snaps on third down compared to one for Michael Carter. It is Brees Hall, SZN. And that's all I
Starting point is 00:32:48 got, guys. I don't know if you want to add anything else. We talked a little about Rashad White cutting into Leonard Fournette's role last week, and we saw something similar this week. White's snap rate was actually up from 39% to 40%, and Fournette ran 29 routes. Rashad White ran 22 routes
Starting point is 00:33:03 in Week 5. So, back-to-back weeks that it has not been like all Fournette. Obviously, we saw Fournette get the touchdowns and all the catches, but yeah, his route running opportunities were down a little bit. I think Rashad White is going to be in your flex discussion in full PPR only during the bye weeks. I don't think he's going to be a great option, but he's got a role, so that's good to see. All right, we're going to take a break here.
Starting point is 00:33:28 When we come back, we'll get into our five big topics. We'll take this quick break and talk Taysom Hill on the other side. Here we go. We'll be right back on Fantasy. Well, here we go to break. We'll be right back. And we are back.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Here we go into our five big topics, starting with Taysom Hill. This one is from everyone in the world. five big topics, starting with Taysom Hill. This one is from everyone in the world. They all want to know about Taysom Hill, the running back who has tight end eligibility, basically. 51% rostered. Dan, is Taysom Hill a must-start? We're going to go three minutes per topic here, guys.
Starting point is 00:33:58 Three minutes per topic. You are on the clock. Is Taysom Hill a must-start tight end going forward? Yeah, he's a must-start tight end for me. And that's not to say I'm super high on Taysom Hill a must-start tight end going forward? Yeah, he's a must-start tight end for me. And that's not to say I'm super high on Taysom Hill. It's more to talk about the state of the tight end position right now. But he's going to be factored in that red zone package every single week. He can throw the ball, and we saw him.
Starting point is 00:34:19 If you're going to give him an open seam, he'll just rip the seam, which he did for an easy touchdown. And the way they designed those runs is really unique. I've been watching some of those back today. Just the way they use their blockers all in continuity with each other and sometimes how they use their tight ends on those plays with a lot of sniffers and a lot of people coming around to pin the pin pole concepts in that run game. There's a lot of interesting things going on in the field when Taysom Hill is out there and they have designed runs for him. So I think the efficiency won't go down too much with Taysom Hill. He's a really good red zone runner. And again, he has the opportunity to throw when you give it to him. So as far as fantasy goes, the tight end position, we always talk about touchdown
Starting point is 00:34:57 or bust for a lot of these tight ends. Well, he gives you a much better chance at a touchdown on a weekly basis than the majority of those guys you consider touchdown or bust. Unfortunately, he doesn't ever catch the ball. It's the one thing he doesn't do. So if he doesn't score. Better than non-BBR. Yeah, for sure. And the efficiency is going to go down because he's playing out of his mind right now.
Starting point is 00:35:17 He's basically the best rusher in the NFL. If he minimum 20 carries, he has the fourth highest percentage of carries that are going for five or more yards, and the highest percentage of carries going for 20 or more yards. 20 or more yards on 24% of his carries. That's wild. Yeah, and but it's not a fluke how good he is near the end zone. He has, over the last
Starting point is 00:35:37 three seasons, 13 carries from inside the five-yard line, and Taysom Miller scored on nine of those 13 carries. It's incredible. Dennis Allen acknowledged that teams are going to make adjustments. And he said, basically we're going to, we're going to mix things up to Jacob is Taysom Hill,
Starting point is 00:35:52 a must start tight end. That's what I'm looking at tight ends now and trying to decide like who I would rather start in a week to week basis. You obviously have the top two. And then I think Zach or it's Dallas Goddard. Yeah. Um, I think Darren Waller, I'm puttingard. Yeah. I think Darren Waller.
Starting point is 00:36:06 I'm putting pits in there. We're not benching pits. Okay. David Njoku, Tyler Higby. Oh, Higby. Yeah, I would say for sure. Higby. Njoku, I mean, I think I have to buy into Njoku.
Starting point is 00:36:17 Three good games. You still need four more though. You still need to find four more. I know. Right. So we're in the 8-12 range. Hawkinson's on a buy this week, but when he comes back. Hawkinson came right a bye this week, but when he comes back...
Starting point is 00:36:25 Hawkinson came right back down to earth with 1.6 points this week. But he didn't just come back down to earth. He went underground. He's been so bad other than we've seen. The story of Hawkinson. George Kittle. Kittle, yeah, you'd like to think. I think he's a top 12 tight end, I guess.
Starting point is 00:36:43 That's nuts. He has more of a red zone role than most of the people we mentioned right there. He's running three and a half routes per game. He needs a top 12 tight end. I don't even know.
Starting point is 00:36:53 I mean, what bothers me is that he shouldn't be classified as a tight end. You know. No, he should not qualify. All right. Let's go to topic number two. And I think another thing
Starting point is 00:37:04 just to think about from Taysom Hill is it really might hurt Kamara and Jameis just he really might account for a lot of touchdowns he's probably their goal line guy alright Robert I'm going to be honest with you guys I can't figure this out I cannot
Starting point is 00:37:19 sit here and say oh this is when Amari Cooper is going to be good and this is when he's going to be bad so Robert wants to is when Amari Cooper is going to be good, and this is when he's going to be bad. So Robert wants to know about Amari Cooper and the home road production. Is he the wide receiver version of Drew Brees? Because all three of his good games have come at home, and on the road, he had 17 yards and nine yards in two games. Dan, is Amari Cooper the wide receiver version of Drew Brees? I can't say I ever thought of it like that. So that's really interesting way to frame it.
Starting point is 00:37:45 Robert, uh, very, very, you know, I would say with breeze, it was more pronounced. You could see it.
Starting point is 00:37:51 Like for example, they were quite, he, he was, he threw really well in that dome and he obviously had control and commanded the offense when it wasn't loud on offense, but with a receiver that doesn't really factor in as much. And it's not like the Browns playing any kind of unique stadium with a dome or anything
Starting point is 00:38:06 like that. So I would say it's probably more coincidence at this point, but it is like Adam said, originally, the key point is it's hard. It's becoming hard to predict when to start him. He's almost becoming a player. You want to put in your flex every week because there's, because when he hits those big weeks, he's worth having in there. Jacob, people are frustrated.
Starting point is 00:38:22 I'm sure because this is the start percentage for Cooper. Week one, 33%, and he was bad. Week two, 28%, and he was great. Week three, 47%, and he was great. Week four, his highest start percentage of the year, 88%, and he goes for one catch on nine yards. Drops down to 66% start. It's still the second highest, but down 22% from the week before. And he goes for 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. So is there any rhyme or reason to Amari Cooper's success and failures? I will say that his week four matchup against Atlanta
Starting point is 00:38:57 was not a good one. They used a ton of cover two. And that really, obviously they have talented corners and they use a ton of cover two, which really slows down perimeter receivers typically. If you guys are interested in specific coverage analysis, I've got a thread pinned on my Twitter account where I go through and talk about each coverage scheme
Starting point is 00:39:14 and how it affects wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, quarterbacks. Yeah, that's great. I do think that had something to do with it. I was low on Amari that week and I wasn't really shocked to see them go more to Njoku and the running backs there um it could be that i have no idea on home road splits uh on a five game sample that that's probably nothing i think if you want to look at it one other way week one was terrible 17 yards that was the only dreadful game
Starting point is 00:39:40 for jacoby brissett he threw for 147 yards. The last four games, Brissett has thrown for 220 to 234 yards. He's been in a 14-yard range four straight games, and Cooper's been great in three of them. That's a more optimistic way of looking at Cooper's season and saying, well, Brissett's probably not going to throw
Starting point is 00:40:00 for 147 yards. That was a terrible game. 230, that's doable, and he's been good in three of those four games when Brissette's been around 230. But I honestly have no freaking idea. I am very interested in the cover two thing, though, so I'll be keeping that in mind going forward.
Starting point is 00:40:16 Alright, this comes from Robert Williams. When to play banged up but not 100% players like Dalvin Cook versus when to sit active guys like T. Higgins? Is there a risk reward point? Is it relative to position or injury? Jacob? Uh,
Starting point is 00:40:29 yeah, I mean, this is a tough one to answer. What would you say about approaching, you know, injured players going into their game? Cause a modern St. Brown was played about 25% of the snaps.
Starting point is 00:40:38 He was a huge bus. You just never know. Yeah. You really don't know. Like the Higgins thing, we had no indication that it was something that was like really going to limit him um he wasn't really thought it was a game time decision or anything and then he'll he goes out there and plays 10 snaps and re-injures it like that's just
Starting point is 00:40:53 bad luck um i i think if you can avoid it like if you can avoid playing a player who you know is injured and you know especially with an ankle or hamstring or something like that that does have a slightly higher re-injury risk like you might want to even for at you know for a lower projected player um but yeah i i don't have much on this no i don't think you can no but you can look at it week to week like for example we saw throughout the week dan campbell traditional tough guy coach he's like if amon ross and brown can get there, he's going to get out there. But all the speculation was that it would be on a pitch count. And then we look at it, he only runs 20 routes and there's only feel for 20 snaps. So it was sometimes they, they tell you the story. Sometimes they don't. T Higgins was an example where they didn't. So that sucks. But while it's hard to predict,
Starting point is 00:41:41 look through the, you know, read through every injury report and what the coach speak is saying all the way through to the game, because you might get some answers like Amon Ron St. Brown was a player who originally I went into the game thinking, you know, and he's on most of my teams. He's one of my highly, most highly drafted players. I'm thinking, you know, if he plays, you have to play him. But I took him out of lineups right before Sunday after reading a little bit more, because I felt like there would be, you know, it would, because the last comment Campbell made made was basically like even if he's just on the fields to decoy it helps us and that was the one that was kind of like all right I have a feeling this is going to be a situation where they're just using him to open up the rest of the rest of the offense which obviously didn't work obviously it didn't work but it led me to believe to bench him so kind of just look through the coach speak if you can if you can it's just a pretty impossible task because David Montgomery played a lot more than I thought. I'll tell you what, man. If anybody wants to know what kind of mood I'm in tonight, I need
Starting point is 00:42:31 five points from Juju to win one league. I need 13 points from Juju to win a second league. Oh, baby. If he doesn't get five, I mean, if he doesn't get 13, fine. I can accept that. If he doesn't get five, it's going to be I'm not going to be on the show on Tuesday. I'll tell you that.
Starting point is 00:42:47 You already have to face the fact that you lost to me in another video. Yeah, I know. And actually there's a decent chance I'm not going to be on the show Tuesday just so everybody knows. I'm not sure I'll be able to make it to that Waver Wire show. This is from Eric Walsh. Gino Smith versus Tom Brady, rest of season.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Dan, when you're done with your watermelon drink there, who do you like better rest of season, Gino Smith versus Tom Brady rest of season. Dan, when you're done with your word or melon drink there, who do you like better rest of season, Gino Smith or Tom Brady? Yeah, I alluded to a little bit of why earlier. It's Brady for me. They're getting back to their pass-heavy ways, which is what makes Brady such a valuable
Starting point is 00:43:18 fantasy asset in the first place. You got to let him run that offense. You got to let him cook. Godwin's getting healthier. Evans is a huge factor there. Ultimately, their offensive line is starting to play a little bit better too. Obviously, this is not the greatest matchup to evaluate,
Starting point is 00:43:32 but Grady Jarrett is one of the best interior defensive linemen from a pass rushing standpoint. That was a difficult matchup. Obviously, everyone saw the roughing the passer, which should have never been called, but that's neither here nor there. I'm going with Tom Brady in this. You want to hear a great sound about that roughing the passer? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:47 I just uploaded this. This is from yesterday's podcast. That was Heath. Very excited. Yeah, I know. He made that noise. There's either sighs or. All right.
Starting point is 00:44:02 So what do you think? Let's talk about Geno Smithith jacob i am thoroughly impressed with gino smith what say the numbers yeah gino's been excellent the numbers are are like really really exciting extremely efficient um and both his receivers are really balling out like dk metcalf has been really impressive this year. I still have to take Brady. I mean, Brady was the QB six this week, only threw one touchdown. Right. I definitely think this Brady.
Starting point is 00:44:31 Yeah. I don't even want to focus on this part of the debate because you have to go Brady. But Gino, is he legit? Can he keep this up? I mean, it has been legit. It hasn't been one of those. Well, he's not playing well, but he's scoring fantasy points.
Starting point is 00:44:45 There is no question that Gino Smith is playing great football right now. The beat writers say it, the stats say it. The film shows it. He made a throw this week that was the best throw by any quarterback in the season. With the second touchdown pass to Lockett? No, that was another maze. I mean, the post he's throwing to Lockett are on the money and tried. The throw where he made where he had to roll to his left didn't even have a chance to flip his hips back around. The hardest throw a quarterback can make is rolling to the left and then throws the ball downfield, layers it over the coverage,
Starting point is 00:45:13 drops it right in around the sideline. It was arguably the best throw I've seen all year, and I couldn't believe there was Geno Smith making it. And he had a touchdown called back on a holding penalty, a questionable holding penalty, and DK Metcalf dropped the touchdown. So he could have had a huge game. He already did.
Starting point is 00:45:32 I mean, 30 points. Could have had a 40-plus point game. Jacob, I think I cut you off. Anything else you want to add about Geno Smith? I mean, can he keep it going? I think so, yeah. I think, like, everything we've seen is legit. I wish that they were a little bit more pass-heavy.
Starting point is 00:45:47 Like, we haven't seen that really increase the way that I thought it might as he's been playing this well um true and it's possible that will be shot pennied out but i wouldn't be surprised if they kind of continue to just be the same offense that we've seen so it's gonna you know we're gonna need continued you know really efficient play from him um for him to sustain this for fantasy um but maybe he can i We don't have a big enough sample size on him throughout his career really to know who he is. So it's possible that this is who he is. We don't know. That's the thing, right? He's not a total
Starting point is 00:46:13 failure in his career. He started the first two years of his career, and he's barely played since then. He didn't have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He had an aging Eric Decker one year led the team in receiving and Jeremy Curley led the team in receiving one year. So Dan, it's so funny. You think of Gino Smith as kind of a failure, but he really hasn't played much since 2013 and 2014 as a rookie and
Starting point is 00:46:38 second year guy. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe Ben McAdoo was right after all, obviously for those who don't know the reference, he famously benched Eli Manning for Geno Smith in the 2017 season, and everybody went off on him. Because the Giants had drafted a third-round rookie that year, Davis Webb. They're like, if you're going to bench Eli for anyone, bench him for the rookie. There's no upside with Geno Smith. What are you, crazy?
Starting point is 00:46:58 Ending Eli Manning's streak. Ending his Iron Man streak. Eli Manning's Iron Man streak. All for to get Geno smith some snaps that nobody cared about watching at least as a giants fan but i will say this you know arm talent was never the issue with geno smith coming out everyone always used to blame the processing the post-nap processing how well does he see the defense post now and i gotta say just from watching him this season this shane waldron system is perfect for his skill set and he's seeing the field better than I've ever seen
Starting point is 00:47:25 him in his career. Some of those, like the throw to lock it, that is a really good vision throw. I mean, he sees that locket wins at the top of his stem and is going to break back with leverage toward the inside where he can throw that football and he puts it right on the money. And so he's seeing the system, he's seeing the field really, really well within the system. You hear Pete Carroll saying like, we're going to, we got to let Gino cook. And that's not easy for Pete Carroll, a coach who wants to run the ball 50 times a game if it's up to him so he's playing great within the system i think it's there's a chance it could keep up it's weird because there's no nfl equivalent of this right adam like and jacob like who would
Starting point is 00:47:58 you even say is he anywhere remotely close to having this type of first five game stretch this late in their career ryan fitzpatrick but he was always kind of doing it throughout his career in 2018 he had three straight 400 yard games to start the year and then he got benched box right yeah okay uh so he wasn't even but he wasn't playing great football throughout that stretch that was the difference he was throwing a lot of interceptions he was playing you know poorly enough to be benched you know smith is not getting benched he's the starter the rest of the year and he's playing great football throughout that stretch. That was the difference. He was throwing a lot of interceptions. He was playing poorly enough to be benched. Geno Smith is not getting benched. He's the starter the rest of the year, and he's playing great. It's just interesting to see. It's crazy.
Starting point is 00:48:31 It's the best story of the year as far as I'm concerned. I think it's a great call. And even better call, Geno's Pizza out in Long Island. They got one in Great Neck. They got one in Port Washington. Unbelievable stuff. Geno's Pizza. Okay, I haven't heard of it. The best.
Starting point is 00:48:46 All right, last one. Can we get some week six rookie running back breakouts? This is from Adrian. Tyler Algier, Ken Walker, and Brian Robinson. Well, certainly Ken Walker's got a shot against the Cardinals. They're 11th against running backs, but they're not very good. And I guess I got to dig a little bit deeper into that. Maybe they're better than I think,
Starting point is 00:49:06 but I don't consider it a tough matchup. But Algier and Robinson, Jacob, do you think we can get a breakout from those guys? Algier gets the Niners, the best run defense in football, and Brian Robinson gets the Bears. Yeah, from a usage standpoint, I was pretty encouraged by what we saw from out here this week but like you said the matchup is not good and um if i remember right he's got a few pretty
Starting point is 00:49:32 tough matchups coming up um but his route is cincinnati carolina it's cincinnati is not bad without dj reader carolina they're kind of neutral yeah his route involvement rate was 56 percent this week um that's a lot higher than I would have expected that was higher than Landon Fournette Travis Etienne this week um I think it was 11th among running backs so if they don't pass the time but like he's out there um and not coming off the field it's not like he's only an early down guy which I thought he kind of might be pigeonholed into that kind of a role um and then his rushing efficiency metrics I'm digging up right now. Do you guys have anything on Brian Robinson from this week?
Starting point is 00:50:09 Yeah, I think it's a problem. I don't think either of these guys can really break out in their current roles. I mean, Robinson is exactly the kind of running back we typically avoid, right? He's exciting in the story, but he's not going to catch. Okay, so they've played five games. They've got 12 left. Do you think he even gets 20 catches this year if he plays every going to catch. Okay, so what they've played five games. They've got 12 left. Do you think he even gets 20 catches this year if he plays every game? No.
Starting point is 00:50:29 Yeah, I don't think so. So it's not like Gibson's going to get zero carries. If he breaks out, I don't think it's going to be this week. But what do you think, Dan? I don't think Brian Robinson has any path to fantasy success. Great story. Like you said, he was never really a runner. I was high on coming into this draft class anyway.
Starting point is 00:50:48 He was more of a runner that was like kind of takes what's given to him. And it is actually pretty good at processing in between the tackles, which is great for Washington. That's what they wanted. But it doesn't really help, like you said, for fantasy purposes, unless he is for sure the true every goal, every goal to go situation running back, which I don't even think he's definitely bound to be in an offense that, in my opinion, isn't going to be scoring that much, which I don't even think he's definitely bound to be in an offense that, in my opinion,
Starting point is 00:51:07 isn't going to be scoring that much, especially as we get to the colder months. So yeah, that's an avoid for me. I don't see much breakout upside. I do really like, we brushed over it quickly, but I do really like the chance of Kenneth Walker breaking out this week in this matchup. I'm a little more optimistic on Robinson.
Starting point is 00:51:23 You know, I think there's still a place for guys who don't catch passes. It's just I don't think he can be great. Rashad Penny is a guy who would be worth starting without catching passes. Damian Harris. You need touchdowns, so keep that in mind. But it's probably going to take some time. The guy's coming back from something pretty serious here
Starting point is 00:51:46 and wasn't able to practice at all. Didn't have a preseason really. A little bit of a preseason. But, you know, I think it's a lot to ask for him to break out this week. I had to drop him in a league, by the way. I didn't have to drop him in two. It just, you know, again, it was easy to stash him in an IR spot. Now you've got to really question his value.
Starting point is 00:52:06 Sorry to cut you off there. No, I was just going to say Algiers has been by far the worst running back of Atlanta's backfield in terms of efficiency metrics. Their running backs actually have a really high success rate, 56%. Algiers is 36%. Wow. He has by far the lowest rushing EPA per snap, not avoiding tackles. What does that mean, success rate? He has by far the lowest rushing EPA per snap, not avoiding tackles.
Starting point is 00:52:26 What does that mean, success rate? The percentage of their rushes that were deemed a success based on EPA, based on the expectation of the play. And so 56% is extremely high. I'm really surprised by that. Atlanta has such weird metrics. Everyone on the team has a really high explosive rush rate, except for him as well, all the other running backs. And that jives with his profile coming out of college.
Starting point is 00:52:56 He was not an explosive back. Todd Bowles said that they have maybe the best run schemes in football. Yes, that I can get behind. They do really block it up well, and they coach it well, which is why they have you know one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the nfl right now despite not really having too much talent on that offensive line yeah another one that i like to look at when just when comparing like among a backfield mates um is yards before contact because you assume similar blocking um and so it's then it's kind of up to the running back and are they finding the holes and he's by far the lowest there the team averages 2.8 yards he's at 1.8 yeah he's all jeer boo right yeah so
Starting point is 00:53:33 thank you guys they didn't laugh yesterday when i made that joke all jeer who didn't laugh david heath uh they're a tough crowd they're a tougher crowd that's basically all right anything else fellas or should we go because i gotta i got stuff to do here i gotta pay some bills adams adams got to refix that air conditioning let him get to it you know what they did let me tell you oh no no i can't i shouldn't even say it on the air that's not they scuffed up my they scuffed up my walls so now i gotta take care of that. Repaint them? Yeah. I think it might be more than that.
Starting point is 00:54:11 They really messed up the walls taking the condenser upstairs. I don't want to say this as if I'm the type of person who is the opposite. But Adam, you definitely strike me as someone who is not going to be touching up those walls yourself. You will pay someone to do it, correct? Of course. Are you kidding? You shouldn't touch... The thing is, you really want a professional
Starting point is 00:54:28 to do that. Some people can do it, I feel like. We're not two of them. No, oh goodness, no. I can't do anything. I mean, my wife does all of that handy stuff.
Starting point is 00:54:37 Everything. The only thing that I do that she won't is kill all the roaches. And with that... Why do you have so many roaches in your house. I've given them names with that. We're out
Starting point is 00:54:48 of here. God for for Dan and Jacob and Thomas. I'm Adam. Thanks for watching and listening. Everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire. I may not be on the show, but if not, it'll be Jamie and Dave. So if you don't like me, tomorrow's the show for you. See you then. Bye.

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