Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Bengals Outlook, Rookie RBs, Buy Low WRs (09/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: September 15, 2025

We kick it off with a recap of Falcons-Vikings (3:00). How concerned are we about Justin Jefferson and J.J. McCarthy? We also talk about Kyle Pitts' role and everything else that stood out in this gam...e. Also, did you notice how good Bhayshul Tuten was in Week 2 (13:15)? ... News and notes (20:10) plus interesting stats and snap counts (23:00) on the Seahawks wide receivers, Patrick Mahomes, the Bears backfield and more ... Four Big Topics: How much trouble are the Bengals in rest of season (31:35)? When will the rookie running backs start producing (42:00)? Who are some buy low wide receivers (54:30)? Can we trust the Eagles passing game (1:00:45)? ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shop our store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠shop.cbssports.com/fantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FFT team on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @FFToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @AdamAizer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @JameyEisenberg⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @daverichard⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @heathcummingssr⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Starting point is 00:00:21 What's going on, everybody? Welcome to Beyond the Box Score, advanced stats from simple people. This is fantasy football today presented by FedMGM, the sports book born in Vegas. It's Adam, Dan, and Jacob on Monday afternoon, and we are going to be talking about the Bengals offenses. Joe Burrow might be out for the season. He's out at least three months. We're going to be talking about bi-low wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:00:41 We're going to be talking about the Eagles passing game. Yuck. And we're going to be talking about, speaking of a yuck, those crappy rookie running backs that are doing absolutely nothing for your fantasy team. All right, guys, Dan, I am starving. What do you recommend today for me? you got a good uh good yeah that that sand that sandy told me about the other day that you had
Starting point is 00:01:05 on the show like two weeks ago with the chicken cutlet that's the one to go to go out get it don't worry about your health you only weigh 136 pounds you can afford it um and we know you're just going to eat like steam broccoli and chicken for dinner anyway so have yourself a nice meal all right jacob let's talk about atlanta 22 at minnesota six that was the motivation i needed to have a good lunch thank you very much um yeah so tough night for j j jay mccarthy mccarthy and Pennix, they both scored about 26 fantasy points in week one, and they did not do anything close to that in week two. Pennix scored 5.3 fantasy points in six point per passing touchdown leagues, neither of them
Starting point is 00:01:43 threw a touchdown. And McCarthy scored 2.8 fantasy points, which is better than Derek Henry. But, Jacob, what are your initial takeaways is we have the Vikings on the screen right here, your initial takeaways of the Vikings? Yeah, it's a little concerning, right? Where we're at with McCarthy in this past game, coming off of the week one where the volume was down a little bit, we can run into games like this.
Starting point is 00:02:09 This was a game where we were hoping for a shootout and didn't get it. I haven't dug into all the data and film on J.G. McCarthy, but definitely will before the next couple podcasts on Beyond the Box Corps. I have some stronger opinions on this one, Adam. But do you want to get in? No, go ahead. You're the man now, dog. So first and foremost, if you look at last night's pass chart for J.J. McCarthy, it's everything I was concerned with in his transition in the NFL. One or two pass attempts total to the left side of the field. The one he had nailer on wide open was just a terrible throw from a clean pocket. And you could see it, man. Look at the footwork on that throw. He's thrown everything into it. It's just like it looked at Michigan. But that's only one of two targets the left side of the field. If that continues and his spray charts look like that, it'll be very, very
Starting point is 00:02:57 easy for defensive coordinators to scheme against him. They'll just leave the field side wide open like they do for a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL, some who have proven to fight through it, others who haven't. And he might be one of them. He might be a guy who can outproduce what he's put on tape so far. But I have a lot of concerns. I didn't love the body language for Justin Jefferson, and I understand why a garbage time reception kind of saved his line, but I think that he's not going to be in that elite
Starting point is 00:03:21 tier receivers unless McCarthy steps forward. I think Hawkinson, people laughed at me for having him ranked outside the top. 12 tight ends. Are we laughing now? Like, are we still laughing about Hawkinson? What is he? He better be on your benches. You can, I guess, roster him.
Starting point is 00:03:36 But this is supposed to be the good times for Hawkinson before Addison is back. And then finally, in the run game, they dominated the bears up front, but they weren't able to dominate this defensive line. And we saw what that did to the offense as a whole when the run game wasn't getting the amount of push they got against the Bears. And let's be clear about that first game. The Bears may be one of the worst defenses in the NFL or at least looked at this week.
Starting point is 00:03:56 they're lost on the defense side of the ball with a ton of injuries. So I don't know, man, I just didn't like what I saw from these two at all, really. Pennix was a little bit different. At least he's got the arm talent, and they could just run the football at will. So I think that was more of a game script thing. But on the Viking side, man, I don't know. Like, these are not, like, to not generate, I think I saw it today. They were 32nd in past EPA per play, the Vikings over the first two games.
Starting point is 00:04:21 And I think 31st in overall past EPA. And this is not supposed to happen against the Bears and Falcons defenses. Like they're going to face the Packers defense twice a year. They're going to face a lot more difficult defenses than this. I think the big takeaway on the Minnesota side of things is that Jordan Mason still played so much, even in a game where they were trailing. Right. I kind of thought that maybe he would just be like.
Starting point is 00:04:43 Jones got hurt, though. Jones did he? Yeah, Jones has a hamstring injury. So this is the only real running back. Even in the first half, he played more. He did. He did. And he's their short yardage guy, it seems pretty clear.
Starting point is 00:04:53 He's, I mean, even if Jones were healthy, I think I'd roll with Jordan Mason over him right now. But, yeah, no, Mason's got a big opportunity. So in the first three quarters, Mason played 20 snaps. Jones played 19. Jones ran 11 routes. Mason ran 8. Mason played more on third and short. Jones was more on third in passing situations.
Starting point is 00:05:15 But they split pretty evenly. But this is now an opportunity for Mason if Jones misses time. He gets the Bengals in week three. The Steelers have had a terrible. on defense so far. They're in week four. The Steelers could get healthier by then. And also, I think, look, the Falcons had five sacks in the first half. That was the most they've had in a half since 2009. Who's missing? You're the best offensive lineman, Christian Darisaw. Unfortunately, his backup has a concussion, and their center, Ryan Kelly, has a concussion
Starting point is 00:05:43 now. Right. So they're a little depleted, but they get the Bengals next week. So we think they should turn around. And McCarthy did score 26.2 fantasy points in week one. They had the ball only for 23 minutes and 28 seconds. It was a horrible game for the Vikings. I think they'll rebound. But obviously there's going to be some ups and downs. That's what Kevin O'Connell said. There's going to be some ups and downs with J.J. McCarthy.
Starting point is 00:06:06 Jefferson? Yeah. I mean, would you rather have Jefferson or Chase rest of season, knowing that burrows out for most, if not all of the year? Chase. Chase, without a doubt. I'm so encouraged by what we're going to get from Chase, what we got from Lamb last year,
Starting point is 00:06:19 from a target standpoint, just watching Browning. Yeah, but C.D. Lamb averaged, depends on the sample size you use. Week 9 was an interesting game because it was 65% DAC and 35% Cooper Rush, kind of. But basically, I mean, he did get a lot of targets, but he also had a decrease in fantasy points per game when they went from DAC to Cooper Rush. So that, you know, that happened. So wait, you're saying Chase. Jacob, what was your answer? I think that's fair. I think it's a really good question. They're really close. We'll get into the Jake Browning and Jamar Chase splits in more detail here in just a sec. I think there's
Starting point is 00:06:59 interesting takeaways on the Atlanta side of things. Yes. Darno Mooney, back, like, 86% snap rate, full-time guy. And still, Kyle Pitts led the team of targets. Shout out Dan. Watch the film. Lots of shoutouts for Dan today. People in the chat are saying the hair looks good. Dan's coming in with the strong taste. I'd say some people hating me in the chat. Well, yeah, they didn't like the Jamar Chase take. Before that, you were doing great. Bajon Robinson had, like, maybe the best game of his career yesterday. He had a career high avoided tackle number.
Starting point is 00:07:31 It was insane. He was a video game out there, the way he was making guys miss. It was amazing. Year three, just keeps getting better. He led the league in success rate last year, and his rate is higher this year so far. He's very good. And the touchdown for Algeria was a little weird down the stretch. They were kind of running out the clock, and the Vikings actually led him.
Starting point is 00:07:50 score to get the ball back to have at least a chance to tie the game. So Alger, he had a, he had a big role, no question, but I, for one, am happy that I have Bijan as my RB1. I know had him preseason, and not that this was like a hot take or anything, but Barclay had a case. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Did you not hear last night? Were you watching, you were watching the game, right? Is it Bejan again? He wants to be called Bejan. He said, they did a whole segment on it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. He's like, I did say to go Bijan and he's like, now I'm changing my mind. himself said this. He's like, now I'm changing my mind. I'm back to Bijon. Okay. So now we successfully call him Bijon again and not feel like we're being inconsiderate.
Starting point is 00:08:28 Yeah, look, Barclay's off to a good start. McCaffrey's getting a ton of catches, but I still think that Bajon is RB1. In the first half, 78% snap rate and 13 of 18 running back opportunities for Bajon. So like, that's as good as it gets. The thing with Pitts is that he is the short area guy, along with Robinson. A bejean. Hits route depth, way down. A dot, way down. It's only two games, but that's the role he's serving right now. And I talked about that last week.
Starting point is 00:08:59 If that keeps up, that's going to make him, you know, a higher floor PPR tight end. What about Pennix? Only 21 pass steps. I mean, the story of this game really for the Falcons was they were just awful in the red zone. Settle for a lot of short field goals. But what's the total yardage in this game? I bet it is so overwhelming. So low.
Starting point is 00:09:21 326, which is not good, to 198, which is embarrassing. But they completely outplayed Minnesota. They were one of five in the red zone. Yeah, they outplayed them because they ran the ball so well, the Falcons. But the passing game was not good in this game at all. And this was, I tweeted about the time. I think, you know, there's always that debate. Are sacks 100% on the offensive line in the past direction?
Starting point is 00:09:45 No, the answer is clearly no if you watch enough tape. And a lot of them are on the quarterbacks. This was a great example of a game where a lot of the sacks were on the quarterbacks on both sides of the ball. This is kind of what I was worried about with Pennix, like these types of games where defensive coordinators like Brian Flores, who's one of the best in the game, can confuse him and put him in tough situations. And he did take a lot of sacks, and I didn't feel like if the Falcons passing game looked good at all in this game. Well, it's Falcons get the Panthers next week and the Vikings get the Bengals, so hopefully we can get bouncebacks from the past game. Minnesota also, look, it's only two games, but they're. are 23rd in pass rate.
Starting point is 00:10:21 Their 20th in pass rate in the first half. They've had very low time of possession. Only Miami and Tampa Bay in one game have average less time of possession than Minnesota. But they are really run heavy right now, and it's kind of weird. They were sort of almost neutral last year because they had such a good defense,
Starting point is 00:10:41 but for them to be so far very run heavy is concerning, but it's only two games. What does that say about what they think about the quarterback right now? yeah all right well i hopefully darisal will fix some things yeah that that could be part of it as well they don't want to leave him out there with darisile if you're listening to this episode in the ffti feed please make sure you listen to the beyond the box score feed not for this episode it'll be the same episode but for all the other beyond the box score episodes throughout the week you're going to get look obviously i love the ffti show but we simply do not go into the same depth and
Starting point is 00:11:16 detail that Jacob and Dan and whoever else is on the show goes into on Beyond the Box Score. That's why it's called Beyond the Box Score. These two podcasts serve different purposes, and together they should give you a terrific picture of the fantasy landscape. But if you're not subscribed to Beyond the Box Score, the audio feed, do it. Or you can just watch everything at YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. If you're missing some episodes, you don't see and maybe hit the live button. You can hit the video tab. You can hit the video tab.
Starting point is 00:11:48 You'll see everything. All right. So I don't know if we settled on this, Dan. We're going with a giant here because now it's time for the Him of the Week. Sponsored by producer Jordan Peel's upcoming sports horror film, him, only in theaters on September 19th. Big weekend. Movies coming out. Looks pretty good.
Starting point is 00:12:08 All right. Who's our Him of the Week? As you can see from my magnets up there, moving to O&2, if anything. Anyone can see that back there. Wow. It's so bad. It's so bad. But it does look somewhat like a two back there.
Starting point is 00:12:20 I'm going to let Jacob take this one, because otherwise I would have just picked a giant. Yeah, the people are guessing Scataboo in the chat, maybe Wondale Robinson. Him of the week, week two, and looking forward, coming for that work in his backfield, Basial Tuddin. Too, Tud. Big shout out to be on the box score here, one of our favorites. You laughing at Bayshel Toot my guy? No, I'm laughing at the Tuting.
Starting point is 00:12:48 Okay. Running back one in PPR points per touch this season. Running back one in success rate has not taken a negative play on any of his touches yet. This preseason, he did not take a negative play on any of his 19 touches. He gained positive yards on 18 out of 19 touches this preseason. Wow. He's gained at least two yards after. contact on every single touch this regular season.
Starting point is 00:13:18 So we've got a rookie running back who we know has ridiculous speed, like truly ridiculous speed. His 10-yard split is like akin to Devon A. Chan, Keaton Mitchell, Jemir Gibbs, guys who weigh 180, 190 pounds. This guy weighs 209. So that's Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown size. And he also has the tackle avoidance. And now we're seeing it come together at the NFL level.
Starting point is 00:13:43 where he's not taking negative plays. He's gaining yards after contact, creating when there's not much there, and he has the explosive playability. So Bayshalt-Tooten, name to know. If he's available, definitely get him. I think some big fantasy days are headed. That's great.
Starting point is 00:14:01 Yeah, and obviously, unfortunately for him, Travis E.N. is also off to a very good start. But Tuton is 75% rostered. He is a must-have player in basically all formats. So I know it could be tough in 10-team leagues. you have to make some tough decisions about who to drop. But in a 12-team league, if you see Tutin available, he's definitely the top, I'd say the top running back.
Starting point is 00:14:19 Maybe you could argue Chris Rodriguez or something, but no, I think it's... I would also argue, and I'll have more to come when we get to the rookie running back section. He's one of the best players to try to trade for this week. This is the time to do it. It was last week, but if you missed on last week, now is the time.
Starting point is 00:14:34 We'll get to more of that, though. Can I... Hold on. We're going to do a whole segment about how wrong we've been about Travian Henderson and RJ, Harvey, basically, because they are unable to usurp the veterans that are in front of them. ETN is off to a very good start. He's doing nothing to lose this job.
Starting point is 00:14:53 He's not him. I mean, look, I know Trayvion Henderson is a more talented player than Ramandre Stevenson. At least, I feel like I know that. And it's not happening yet. So I think R.J. Harvey is more talented than not necessarily J.K. Dobbins, but then Tyler their bidet. But I don't think he needs to be in a him type of role, just to keep using our him thing to be super successful for fantasy
Starting point is 00:15:19 and worth trading for right now. Bucky Irving wasn't in that role last year. Super successful? I mean, you want to say successful, fine. Super successful. Well, what was Bucky Irving last year? Bucky Irving, I don't think it was necessarily super successful. Okay, well, then whatever that was.
Starting point is 00:15:33 He kind of was. He was. He didn't need the touches. No, no, I mean, until he really took over the backfield. but he kind of was. Yeah. But that's an exception to the rule. All right, fine.
Starting point is 00:15:44 I hope he is because he looks terrific. And that was the Hym of the Week, sponsored by the upcoming film, Him. Producer Jordan Peel invites you to the football, sports, and horror event of the season, which asks the question, what are you willing to sacrifice? See him only in theaters on September 19th. Comment from Arnold. Dan is the guy who says, I'm him after sinking a basketball shot.
Starting point is 00:16:08 No, people think that. that's not me i'm a quite you know if i'm and i play tennis i don't play basketball anymore tennis and golf but you'll see an occasional fist pump after a really good put um that people people comment on they see me do the little pump it's like the tiger fist pump but other than that and i'll do a come on occasionally in tennis but other than that speaking of tennis we don't have the time for this right now adam but i played my brother this weekend in a three hour banger three sets he wants to play you badly and he's not happy but i paid you a huge compliment i said i think you're better than him he is not happy i got to tell you i was watching that i was watching i was
Starting point is 00:16:39 When I went back and watched the stream of our match, I was a little... You re-watched again? No, no, no, no, no, right after we did it. I was a little insulted at the way he spoke about me. So I would love to put him in tennis. There's a little bad beef there. I think, you know, we may get an Azer-Schneyer-Brothers doubles match. I don't want to see before that an Azer, Adam Azer versus Matt Schneier match.
Starting point is 00:17:00 All right, yeah, I might want to destroy him. And last comment here before we take a break. Dan is totally drinking a pumpkin spice latte. Black coffee with butter in it, with Irish. Kerry Gold, Irish butter in it. All right, we're going to take a break. News and notes. Joe Burrow News, Aaron Jones News, defensive news, much more.
Starting point is 00:17:18 Snap counts. What did the Patriots do very little of in week two that they did a lot of in week one? We'll be right back with that after this. With Amex Platinum, access to exclusive Amex pre-sale tickets can score you a spot trackside. So being a fan for life turns into the trip of a lifetime. That's the powerful backing of Amex. Pre-sale tickets for future events subject to availability. and vary by race.
Starting point is 00:17:40 Terms and conditions apply. Learn more at mx.ca. slash yanex. This episode is brought to you by Defender. With its 626 horsepower twin turbo V8 engine, the Defender Octa is taking on the Dakar rally, the ultimate off-road challenge. Learn more at landrover.ca.
Starting point is 00:18:02 So we have four big topics today. The first one is about the Bengals. So we're going to get to that in probably about five, 10 minutes, but Joe Burrow needs toe surgery. He's going to be out at least three months and can you drop him? I'm obviously, hopefully you can just stash him in an IR spot. I definitely think you can drop him.
Starting point is 00:18:18 I mean, you're talking about the fantasy playoffs if he comes back and it's minimum three months. So that's just my take. Kevin Stefanski, head coach of the Browns, he brushed off talk of a quarterback change. But I'd be pretty nervous about it. They got Green Bay, Detroit in the next
Starting point is 00:18:34 two weeks. There's a good chance they're o' and four. You know, I don't think Flacko was playing all that well, but I didn't watch the tape from this week. He was, I guess he was fine in week one. His touchdown this past week should have been an interception. It's not out of the question. Let's just put it that way, that the Browns make a change sooner rather than later. Justin Fields has a concussion.
Starting point is 00:18:54 Terrod Taylor would start at Tampa Bay if Fields is out. Aaron Jones hamstring injury, we haven't got, I haven't seen anything on that. Carolina's offensive line is two injured interior offensive linemen. Rob Hunt and Austin Corbett. Falcons upcoming. San Francisco left guard. Ben Barch left in the first half. He did not return. I mentioned two Vikings offensive linemen. One of them was Dar esau's replacement. They left with head injuries. They're getting ready for the Bengals this week. Dallas Center Cooper Beebe is out. I think it was six to eight weeks. Wow. Tough one for them at Chicago, then Green Bay, then the Jets,
Starting point is 00:19:28 then the Panthers. It's not the worst schedule other than Green Bay. But that's a tough one for the Cowboys. And Tennessee was already playing without starting right tackle, J.C. Latham. They lost right guard Kevin Zitler to an elbow injury. I don't know the severity there. Big stuff on defense would be the Cardinals were absolutely decimated. They lost at least three defensive backs and a defensive lineman in this game. And they get the 49ers next week. So keep that in mind for the Niners.
Starting point is 00:19:59 They could have a much easier matchup against the Panthers. Pittsburgh, some injuries there. Alex Highsmith, that's a big loss for them. a couple of injuries for Baltimore's defense as they get ready for Detroit. And that's mostly it, the Jets, Edrushar Jermaine Johnson, left with an ankle injury. I'm not sure if he returned. And that'll do it for the news and notes. Now, listen, football fans, you've got to bring that playoff energy to your pro football bets all season long.
Starting point is 00:20:27 Because this pro football boost pack from BEDMGM gives you three ways to boost your payout on a winning bet. Just log into your BEDMGM account to receive your boost. pack. Then place any pro football bet and apply one of the tokens. Make sure to bet up to the minimum stake odds and legs specified on the token. If your boosted bet hits, you'll score a bigger payout. From opening kickoffs to game winning drives, this pro football boost pack is your ticket to unforgettable moments this season. Don't wait on the sidelines. Join the action with BetMGM. I had some snap counts here. I've been talking a lot if you want me to go through the snap counts I can. If there's anything that's done to you guys. I like a snap count.
Starting point is 00:21:06 I've got a fun stat for you before we do it then. If you want a quick break. Yes, do it. Guess which quarterback had the only off-target rate that was worse than J.G. McCarthy and Michael Pinnock's in week two. The only off-target rate worse? I'm going to say Bo Nix. That's a great guess. Caleb?
Starting point is 00:21:29 Again? This quarterback also had the lowest catchable target rate. in week one on throws from a clean pocket that traveled five or more yards past a line of scrimmage. Wow. And it's not Caleb, and it's not. To it'sunga by Llewa. That's a good guess.
Starting point is 00:21:48 We haven't gotten it right, though. Or Jacob's playing games with us. I give up. It's Patrick Mahomes. Oh, no, not again. What is, I didn't, I only watched, we'll talk about it in a bit. I only, because for the show, it's one of the big questions. I only watched the Philly offense.
Starting point is 00:22:05 I didn't watch any of the Chiefs offense versus Philly Day. But wow, what is going on? Yeah, I don't know. Well, obviously he's got pretty garbage receivers. It doesn't matter. Sure, they're not getting open much. It's from a clean pocket.
Starting point is 00:22:20 Well, if no one's open, what are you going to do? He still shouldn't be off target. He's just missing. He's just been missing for the past two years and two games. He really has been missing for a long time now. It's hard to just blame it on the receivers. Well, he's been good for fans. Fantasy, 24.1 yesterday in six points in touchdown, 28 points in week one.
Starting point is 00:22:43 He has two rushing touchdowns ready, right? Yeah, he does. Yeah, that's why. And not only that, he's got about 130, 133 rushing guards, 120th rushing yards, whatever it is. Saving his fantasy season so far. But that's crazy, Jacob. When we went over the numbers, this is, we don't need to do this right now. Just a quick note, we went over the numbers this offseason, Jacob, I.
Starting point is 00:23:02 We did a quarterback ranking show. my homes was just bad across the board like every possible way from a charting standpoint it's crazy it's weird don't let this like take away from the fact that like you know the off script plays are heroic he's like keeping them in games when there's literally nothing else on the offense that's working at all
Starting point is 00:23:22 even a little bit yeah the run game is so bad man that's like the craziest part to me read usually can design stuff in the run game and the screen game there's just none of that well hopefully Xavier Worthy's back in week three. The Giants look like a tonic for a bad offense. But if you're hearing all this stuff, it might make you consider trading Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:23:42 What does he get, what does he have before Rishi Rice comes back? So it's four more games. It's the Giants, Ravens, jaguars, and lions. I'd call that a neutral schedule. A couple of good ones in there. A couple of potentially bad ones in there. And then maybe you're just hoping
Starting point is 00:23:57 Rishi Rice comes back and helps them out. All right, some snap count stuff. I was excited about Hunter Henry because Austin Hooper barely ran any routes in week one. Well, that totally changed. And Hooper had a 47% route participation rate. So Henry had a horrible game. And he's back to being Hunter Henry.
Starting point is 00:24:15 The snaps for New England were just weird. Henry did play the most snaps of the skill position players. Kashan Booty, 72%. Henry 85%. Mac Hollins, 65%. Remandre 65. Hooper 62. Diggs only 52%.
Starting point is 00:24:28 So still working his way in there. And they barely went to three receiver sets. The Patriots had the third. third lowest rate of three or more receiver sets ahead of only Atlanta and Seattle, who were just running the air out of the ball. So I don't know, that was kind of a game plan thing because week one, the Patriots were 14th and three receiver, three or more receiver sets rate, and this year, this week, their third lowest.
Starting point is 00:24:53 They also had a 2.7% blitz rate in week two, which was the lowest after having the fourth highest blitz rate in week one. Enough about the boring Patriots. Travis Hunter played 59% of the snaps on offense and 62% on defense. That's not great. Cam Scadaboo played seven more snaps than Tyrone Tracy and he dominated carries in the second half. What do you think?
Starting point is 00:25:16 Is the writing on the wall, Dan, we have a new RB1 in New York? I don't think so. I think what happened there, we talked about some of the podcast last night. Tyrone Tracy made some comments after the first game and called out the coaching staff in the play calling, said that not only he, but everyone. on the team felt like they should have ran the ball in the red zone on that weird series where they kind of attempted one to Marcus Bo, the backup tackle. Immediately, his role changed, and he was used on kickoff returns in week two.
Starting point is 00:25:43 I think it might be a short doghouse, but I think he's in the doghouse for those comments. I think table probably behind the scenes made it clear if you're going to have questions with the play calling, you keep it in-house, you never go to the media with it. So we'll see. I want to hope that Scadaboo will get more of a run. I like them both. I think they're both talented players, but Scadaboo is just such a fun watch. We'll get to him a little bit more later.
Starting point is 00:26:04 DeAndre Swift had a late goal line touchdown, but Kyle Monongai played 41% of the snaps. They had more of a split than I guess you'd like to see, but Swift did have a good, decent game. This is, Jacob, what do you make of this? Look at the Seattle Seahawks wide receivers, specifically JSN, who's one of the stories of fantasy right now, and their snap shares.
Starting point is 00:26:26 You know, JSN 77% of the snaps in week one in a loss. And 68% in week two in a win. They just don't keep these guys on the field that much. AJ Barner, the tight end, was the only player who played more than 70% of the snaps. The only skill position player who played more than 70% of the snaps for the Seahawks yesterday. And JSN is leading all wide receivers in target per outrun rate, in target share. We have three wide receivers right now who have a target share over 40%. It's JSN, Garrett Wilson.
Starting point is 00:27:01 Maybe Puka. And that's really, really rare. Zayflowers. First three wide receivers with a 40% target share are higher in the first two weeks of the season since 2018. But I thought the snapshot for JSN in particular was odd. And I'm wondering if we're looking at a cell high window here. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:27:25 It's hard to say that because he's playing so well. And we know that he's capable of doing this and everything lines up as this zero three ascension. But it is interesting what you're pointing out that the playing time thing is definitely worth keeping an eye on, and it's everyone. It's the way Clint Kubiak has handled the offense so far. Like even Kenneth Walker played less than Charbonnet this week,
Starting point is 00:27:46 which was strange because he was playing so well. Kenneth Walker, I said Bechal Duton has a high success rate at running back. It's actually Walker if you look at, you know, if you up the qualifier number. And I think that's relevant because everybody, looks at Walker as a low success rate guy. You know, he's big plays are bust, but that's not what he's been so far.
Starting point is 00:28:05 He's played really well, but still he had like a 40% snap rate this week. The other thing with Kubiak is he's not using pre-snop motion and stuff like that. A lot of these like fantasy cheat codes, efficiency boosters. He's not using as much as he had in the past with New Orleans. And so I don't really know what to think. I think it's possible that we're,
Starting point is 00:28:28 it's just kind of this weird. ease in with this offense and we're going to see things get expanded and become more normal going forward. Ken Walker said after the game, every time I touch the ball, I'm trying to score. And that's the problem to me with Ken Walker. It's the good and the bad, but I think unfortunately too much bad because he was pretty crap in week one. He was really good. He scored on third and goal from the 19 yard line, I think kind of caught the Steelers off guard. But he was obviously terrific in this game and Charbonnet really struggled. But I don't love that quote. I think that's what's Scott and Ken Walker in trouble.
Starting point is 00:29:02 But, all right, a couple more snap count things. Evan Ingram played 43% of the snaps. I don't know if it's an injury thing, but I think he's quite droppable. It's what it was in week one in the first half before I got hurt, too. Like, that was just how they rolled it out. This is a, Sean Payne's another guy
Starting point is 00:29:15 who does a lot of this kind of rotating a bunch of guys in there. Yeah, but Troy Franklin got a lot of snaps. He went to 83% of the snaps in this game and it had a big game. And Jonathan Taylor played 93% of the snaps. Good stuff there. Wow.
Starting point is 00:29:29 talk about him he's he looks so good that's who I thought of initially but it was like too obvious and I wanted to talk about Tudin okay yeah he well you did it uh all right let's get to our four big topics and let's start with Joe Burrow here and the Bengals so hot fan who we also featured in last week's show said just how cooked are the Bengals rest of season Dan what do you think
Starting point is 00:29:51 so I don't think this is as cook situation as it would be for a lot of these other offenses like for example like last year with Cooper Rush playing that offense for the Cowboys and just some of those like limited quarter more limited quarterbacks I should say but from what I saw and I watched every snap of Jake Browning after he got in the game my takeaways are this is going to be not good news but better news for Jamar Chase because they found a lot of at least what I thought Zach Taylor was trying to do is find a lot of easy solutions for Browning and a lot of that was just screens and quick hitters to Jamar Chase which I think they're going to do a lot of and they've done some of the past. I think it's bad news for T. Higgins, despite T. Higgins catching that touchdown, which he had an unbelievable release off the line of scrimmages, burn the DB, and it was actually a good ball. There were two or three other one-on-one shots to Higgins that were just terribly off target. I think this is not good for Higgins, personally, moving forward. Chase Brown, I think it'll be good for him in PPR or okay for him in PBR leagues, but I think the touchdowns will come down. The thing with Browning is, like, they, after he came into the game, Jacksonville clearly was like, all right, let's see what this guy has. Because for the first time, all game they went away from the too high shell that everyone plays against burrow and they rotated once they rotated the other safety down and put the one safety in the middle of the field and browning burned them with a deep out route to charmar chase so it's like all right and then from that point on jacksville went back to too high so they're going to play him similar to how they play j joe burrow but
Starting point is 00:31:19 the problem is browning just can't make all the throws that burrow makes he's late on a lot of throws his ball placement is nowhere nearer what burrows is so i just think overall the passing game will suffer a bit, but it's not like some of the other backup quarterbacks we have because they actually, one, let him run the system that they run. It's the same system. And two, they let him make a lot of aggressive throws. They're not having him checked down a lot. So I think for a fantasy standpoint, it won't be a killer, but I would think this is better news for Chase than anyone. I've got some numbers. Yeah, we'll also talk about Chase Brown in this. Yeah. Mr. Between the Tackles, Chase Brown, apparently, is all they do with him. It's so annoying. But what do you got,
Starting point is 00:31:57 what he got, Jacob? So over his career, Browning has thrown 14.5% of his targets to running backs, which is right on par with Joe Burrow, 14.6%. So I think we could see more targets for Brown, Chase Brown, than we saw this week. And then per Ryan Heath, the XFP for the wide receivers, the expected fantasy points, has dropped to a kind of scary range. It's like 11 to 12 XFP per game for Jamar Chase and Teagans across seven games with Jake Browning is a starter, which is not where you want.
Starting point is 00:32:31 That's like wide receiver 40 range. These guys are so good that they can exceed that, obviously. But I did want to bring that up, that even though Browning has played pretty well in these starts by and large, the XFP hasn't been super high for the receivers. It's been more like Joe Mixing with a massive XFP number. But again, with any of this, it's a seven game sample size. So don't, you know, overreact. But like Browning has played pretty well when he's been in.
Starting point is 00:32:58 on a per dropback basis, everything has been good. They've still operated a pretty pass-heavy offense. In terms of pass rate over expectation, it's still been positive. So I think any of these, or maybe even all of these guys, could be fine. There will be inconsistent games for Teagans for sure, and maybe even for Jamar Chase. But that's the case at wide receiver, you know, for just about anybody. This is about as good as it gets, I think, for a backup QB coming in. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:27 Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people thought like, oh, well, sorry, Adam, go ahead. No, no. I gave his numbers yesterday. But Jake Browning was on pace for 4,537 yards and 27 touchdowns in the seven starts he made. He averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, which is really, really incredible. Yeah, he'll try. He really looks downfield more than you would expect for a backup quarterback. But he also averaged an interception per game. Right.
Starting point is 00:33:52 And he threw three yesterday. He's a little careless. So there's that. I don't think they would make a change to another quarterback. I think they'll probably ride him out. Yeah, so the numbers weren't great for Higgins and Chase last year when they were both healthy. There were only three games where Browning, Chase, and Higgins were all healthy. I said last year I meant 2023. And they weren't great except for one game for Chase.
Starting point is 00:34:16 But Tyler Boyd was getting a lot of targets. Tanner Hudson was getting targets. He had a 21.3% target. He actually led the Bengals and Target Per out run. rate when Jake Browning was on the field in 2020. That's Tanner Hudson at 21.3%. Joe Mixen had a 20% target per outrun rate. Andre Jojavus, almost 20%.
Starting point is 00:34:36 So, you know, Higgins was the one who really suffered. I am worried about Higgins. I don't really consider him a must start at this point. I consider him a probably start, but not a must start, kind of in the, I guess kind of in the Marvin Harrison Jr. range or maybe the James and Williams range or something like that. Sure. I think that's fair. And I just want to clarify something Matt Weber says,
Starting point is 00:35:01 looks more downfield than you would expect the backup to. What does that mean? Just what I mean by that is when I watch a lot of these backup quarterbacks are thrust in the games, they'll take the under, if it's a high, low concept, they'll take the low concept. That's what they do. Jake Browning is taking the high concept. Like he is attacking downfield at a rate that you don't expect from a backup quarterback
Starting point is 00:35:18 when it comes to what aggression, I guess is the best way to describe it. The problem is, as Adam said, it leads to a lot of interceptions. And he doesn't have the best arm talent in the world. I don't think this is good news. Some people say this is good news for Chase Brown. Maybe they'll be more run heavy. The Bengals can't run block.
Starting point is 00:35:34 They've never been able to run block under Zach Taylor. And they've no run schemes. I don't think they're going to be able to just go to a run game. And they don't really use heavy personnel. So it's not like that when they had success in the run game, it's because Burroughs spreads them out and they're facing these light boxes. So I don't really foresee that happening, to be honest. But I will say one thing you noted about Boyd, which is interesting at him.
Starting point is 00:35:53 From watching the tape of this game, Eusevis had a much bigger role than I expected to after the borough injury when Browning was in. And so maybe that is something interesting. Maybe Yosevish, Andre Uchevish has like a piece of him, Yosevosh. I think it's Yosevish. All right. I think it's Yosevish. It might be Yosevish. I think what's good for Chase Brown for fantasies, touchdowns, and receptions.
Starting point is 00:36:14 Like Dan said, the rushes up the middle do not really matter very much. You don't really want a bunch of those. Exactly. And that's all he does. he has every single running back carry for the Cincinnati Bengals through two games but no I mean so okay I tried to do this yesterday but if I were drafting again today
Starting point is 00:36:32 right just week three and on right I said Chase would be middle to back half of the first round no longer my number one overall player sure Higgins balls to I maybe like the four or five turn somewhere in that range for me brown is definitely not around two
Starting point is 00:36:51 pick anymore. Chase Brown. Just, yeah. I think he's round four almost. Am I overreacting? And he's running like crap. The offensive line stinks. And I don't know. I don't think we're going to score as much.
Starting point is 00:37:04 Part of the deal for me for Brown was just a ton of touch. Exactly. That offense. It sucks because I have Brown everywhere. But I kind of, I can't really agree with any of that. All right. So let's get some names here. So would you rather have?
Starting point is 00:37:15 Breece Hall. Yeah. Breeze Hall or Chase Brown? Brown. PPR is still. rather have brown i agree would you rather have ken walker or zach charbonnet or chase brown walk around the upside james cook clearly over brown oh yeah oh yeah james cook james cook over all these guys right tomorrow i maybe i'll ask umari and hampton but yeah like chuba hubbard versus chase
Starting point is 00:37:41 versus chase brown is a question we have here i think still brown i could see chubout scoring him very easily i think there's more upside with brown especially in any sort of ppr format that's Good one. E.N over Brown? It's Brown for me. Brown. He still has, like you said, Adam, just crazy volume in this offense. And for PPR leagues, he should, like you said, Browning will check down to, I don't know, just.
Starting point is 00:38:05 Okay. All right. That will be our first topic. So make sure you get Jake Browning in a super flexing. In fact, I don't know that I'm going to get him because I think someone's probably going to go close to 100%. And I am not going to do that. but I think I'm going to drop Joe Flacco for for Jake Browning
Starting point is 00:38:25 because I think Flacco is going to lose his job within the next month has a good chance to this is a super flexes. Has there been any comments on that? Yeah, I mean they asked Stefansky about it. I said this earlier and Stafansky brushed it off. It's not on him. It's not on him.
Starting point is 00:38:40 But their next two games I think are Green Bay and Detroit. So I'm pretty sure they're going to be 0-4. Dylan Gabriel came in and threw a touchdown yesterday. Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh. I mean, it's not like to have any easy wins in that stretch. So I think, you know, it's going to happen at some point. And I think Browning will keep his job. All right, let's take another break and talk about rookie running backs.
Starting point is 00:39:03 And I'll play the sad trombone noise when we'll come back. You can get protein at home or a protein latte at Tim's. No powders, no blenders, no shakers. Starting at 17 grams per medium latte, Tim's new protein lattes, Protein without all the work. At participating restaurants in Canada. Ontario, the wait is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived.
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Starting point is 00:40:20 Please play responsibly. Sad Chumbo and for the rookie running backs. Someone wrote this in. I'm sorry, I don't have the name, I forgot. But we all got too excited in these rookie running backs other than Gentie were way overdrafted. Cam Scadaboo, maybe Bejal Tootin look like the best bets and their ADP was basically free.
Starting point is 00:40:41 So who are the bad ones so far? Clearly Henderson and R.J. Harvey have been bused. and Quinn John Judkins, I actually thought, looked pretty good. He only had one good run in this game. It was late. But it showed some niftiness in his first game, first carries he's had in how long? I mean, other than a little bit of practice this week.
Starting point is 00:40:59 So Quinn John Judkins had 61 yards rushing in the game. He had like 12 carries or something. So anyway, Jacob, where are you on the state of the rookie running backs, which, by the way, we'll have to wait until the first two off the board, play tonight to really assess it, but the state of the rookie running backs for you. Yeah, Tuddin for sure,
Starting point is 00:41:22 like I feel good about it. I thought Judkins looked good. He's very much committal, like when he makes the decision, he's just kind of going with it, and sometimes he misses stuff, but also, like, he has some really good runs.
Starting point is 00:41:35 Scataboo looked good. I'm excited to hear you guys takes. I thought Dan's insight on him and Tracy was definitely important there. I think the two people really want to hear about is Henderson and Harvey, right? That's who people are worried about. That's who pushed so far up draft boards. So I did some digging historically to see what I could find in terms of comparisons for these two. So the parameters I set were running backs drafted rounds two or
Starting point is 00:42:00 earlier since 2000 to have between 10 and 20 opportunities. So that's a rush or a target in their first two career games. And it's a pretty big group, 27 running backs that have been drafted rounds one or two to have 10 to 20 opportunities in their first two games. So they're playing a meaningful role, but they're definitely not featured like some of these running backs are right out the gate. Those running backs, the highest score of that group was 250 PPR points out of 27 guys since 2000. So that for context was like running back 11-ish, that kind of range last year.
Starting point is 00:42:38 The James Connor Chuba Hubbard range last year is what 250 PPR points is. seven out of those 27 running backs are 26% of them hit 200 or more ppr points so that's like tony paul or d'andre swift last year running back 1920-ish um so you got like a 25% chance of being a useful fantasy player um with this type of a start to a career but there were also seven that did not even hit 100 ppr points which is like the ray davis line so 25% chance they're going to be useful, 25% chance they're going to be completely irrelevant. We're talking about Henderson and Harvey and potential outcomes here. If you look at games 13 through 16 of this initial sample size, so you're like the playoff, the fantasy playoff run, you know what I'm saying
Starting point is 00:43:27 here, 12 out of these 27 players, so 44% of them averaged 12.5 ppr points per game or more during that stretch. So you're looking at almost a 50% chance of a top 24 type of outcome during the fantasy playoffs for these players like Henderson, like Harvey, that were drafted in a round two and had 10 to 20 opportunities across their initial two games. The top scores from that group were 20, 19, 18.6, 18.4, 17.5, 15.7, PPR points per game across games 13 through 16. So the fantasy playoff stretch. basically. You had some pretty big numbers there, 20, 19, 19, those are close to high-end RB1 production. If you look at not just even like the whole season, but like specifically
Starting point is 00:44:24 the fantasy playoff stretch run, getting up to that 20 range is like you're a top five or six type of performer at the running back position. And so there were multiple of those seasons. And there were like seven seasons that were above 16 points, which is like a top 12 running back. Do you have the names? I tweeted it out if you want to find it or I can try to find it here while I'm talking and share my screen. So keep the light on for Henderson and Harvey, especially in PPR formats, that they could end up delivering that kind of production during the fantasy playoffs. Overall, it wasn't, the group wasn't that good for fantasy. I think most of the big hits among rookie running backs for a full season,
Starting point is 00:45:11 we're getting a featured role right out the gate, right? Which makes sense. So with a player like this, there's probably, based off what history shows is there's going to be growing pains. And you might have to like supplement their lack of production early on to get you to the playoffs. But by that point,
Starting point is 00:45:32 you've got close to a 50% chance that they're going to be pretty productive. You know how they have those memes of people who, are like friends groups sitting around drinking with their buddies watching football and just naming former players and having fun doing it this list i just looked it up jaco's list of players is like is exactly that eddie lacey jamal lewis willis mcgayhe richard mendon hall remember oh yeah bernardt stephen jackson a classic de angelo wills beanie wells beanie well yes tj ducke i loved t j ducan the way he ran his style felix jones a jerry jones favorite but that was during his Dallas years.
Starting point is 00:46:05 He was better with them. Amir Abdullah, Carlos Hyde, Donald Brown. Remember Donald? I remember, damn it, Donald from Peyton Manning when he couldn't pick up that blitz or whatever. So just to, let me just jump in here, right? Because I gave the stat last week. And there's a big difference between out-of-the-gate workloads
Starting point is 00:46:25 for round one running backs and round two running backs. I mean, a huge difference. As I said, over the previous 10 seasons, I only counted three running backs that were drafted in round two. of the NFL draft and got big work in week one. T.J. Yeldon, Dalvin Cook, and Jonathan Taylor. And there were guys, though, that if you want to have some hope, Brees Hall, 21 carries in his first three games.
Starting point is 00:46:51 And then they just became really run heavy, and he got a ton of work the next few games, and then towards ACL, unfortunately. Even Jemir Gibbs. Now, Jemir Gibbs needed an injury, really. But Jamir Gibbs had 14 carries in his first two games. He had nine catches. So whatever that was, 14 plus 23 touches in the first two games for Jamira Gibbs.
Starting point is 00:47:13 But it really didn't start happening for him until Montgomery got hurt for a second time. Who else was there? There was one other guy that, oh, Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon was a second round pick. They had Jeremy Hill. Joe Mixon had 17 carries combined in his first two games, and then they turned him loose. I also noticed some of these players It takes until there's a bye week
Starting point is 00:47:35 So let's take a look I didn't have this one sorry When the by weeks are for Trayvion Henderson Oh no problem his buy weeks in week 14 For RJ Harvey That's bad news RJ Harvey hopefully his biweek is early His bi week is week 12
Starting point is 00:47:52 So that's not great But I look I have much more faith in Henderson Than Harvey because I have much more faith in Dobbins than Ramon This was a really good game for Mandre Stevenson against the joke of a defense, a junior varsity defense that basically every single possession the Colts had in week one they scored on. And the Patriots kept that up for some, if not all of the first half.
Starting point is 00:48:15 Like the dolphins have so far stunk. Dobbins is not a bad player, you know. Now, if you want to have more hope, Dobbins was very good the first two weeks of the season last year and then all of his explosives seemed to disappear. And he got hurt. But, you know, it's not completely uncommon for round two rookie running backs. The fact, it's extremely common for them to have slow starts. I just don't know when it's going to happen, especially for Harvey.
Starting point is 00:48:42 Might happen for Henderson, but Harvey I'm very worried about. Yeah, so go ahead, Jake. Do you have something? Henderson looks really good. Harvey, it's been inconsistent. There's been some ups, but Henderson is like pretty much every play. He looks pretty good. He looks like a good pro who offers something unique that the backfields.
Starting point is 00:49:00 doesn't really have. And, you know, that fantasy point per touch metric that I gave earlier that Tutin looked so good in, Henderson is right up there near him. He's like in the same range as like Devon A. Chan and Jemir Gibbs and James Cook, who are like always at the top of that range. And so with more touches, I think he's he's the most likely, clearly to me, to become one of these 18, 20-ish point-per-game scores down the stretch. It is tough that his buy weeks not until week 14, though. Like, Tudin's got a week 8 buy, and so you could have like a whole second half where he's like got the rookie bump after the buy.
Starting point is 00:49:40 Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead, Adam. No, no, I was actually going to throw it to you. Yeah, I just want to give some thoughts on the rookie running backs because I haven't had a chance yet to, but I want to dive in on these. And thankfully, we have Jacob Gibbs who cut up all the tape of them from this week and the past week. So I just got to watch through all of the tape. And I'll start by saying this, my first take on all of the backs. And we don't have Omerian Hampton included here. He's playing
Starting point is 00:50:01 tonight. We'll see what happens there. It's a great role in week one. Same thing goes for Gentie. But of all the other rookie backs, Bachel Tutin looks by far and away the most comfortable running the football right now. He looks by far and away. Watching him press those outside zone runs and then cut it back and understanding where the cutback lane is, it looks like he's played in the NFL for four or five years. And that's not that's not it. On some of the power gap scheme, like he'll make a jump cut, he'll do, he'll, as Jacob said earlier when he broke down the stats, he's not having any negative runs. And then I'll watch somebody like Harvey, who I love coming out, and it just doesn't look
Starting point is 00:50:33 like he has a great feel right now for that run scheme. And I said from the start, I thought I was buying on Harvey and Dobbins because I thought the Broncos would be a dominant run game. They just haven't looked as dominant as I thought they'd look in the run game. So that's kind of impacting things as well. And Tyler Beatty, is it a bidet or Beatty? I don't even really know. I would like to have a bidet in my house.
Starting point is 00:50:51 I heard those things are great. But I have. But he has a role. He made a great play in this game. And then you saw him get a couple more snaps. So it's like he doesn't have a role. Henderson, I was never buying at cost.
Starting point is 00:51:03 I always thought, why would I buy this guy at cost when he's in a Josh McDaniels offense? We know that rookies come along slow in these offenses. But Scadaboo and Judkins, Juckins is the interesting one to me. They just threw him right into the mix. Like no if fans are butts. And he looked like,
Starting point is 00:51:17 like he looked like what do you expect it for him to be, like their lead back or somebody they want to be their lead. back. But obviously, a suspension is coming at some point. So I don't know when that will be and how that impacts fantasy. And then there's Caddaboo who, you know, just hasn't really had much to work with the Giants have, in my opinion, the worst run blocking offensive line in the NFL. So to me, of all these guys, Tutin is the one that just looks by far and away the best, or at least the most comfortable. I don't think you can overstay the, like, not taking any negative plays and gaining at least two yards after contact on every single rush. Like, he's looked like a mix
Starting point is 00:51:49 of Henderson and Harvey or something like that, where he's finishing every run really strong, but he's also not taking any negative plays, but he also has more elusiveness to this game than Henderson does, who doesn't really even try that often to make people miss, he just finishes through them. Tootin can kind of do all of it. Yeah. Faisal Tootin for the win. All right, let's go to Wizzie Mick Wizzers here. And by the way, everybody mentioning in the chat that we skipped Caleb Johnson. Yeah, he's, he's buried. But boy, they have had a brutal run game. You got Warren and Gainwell averaging combined, maybe about 3.6 yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:52:27 Which is rare for Arthur Smith offense, by the way. Longest run for the Steelers is 13 yards so far for a running back. And for the Giants and their horrible run blocking, that will get better if Andrew Thomas is back, which could be as soon as week three. If I can share my screen real quick, the people need their bill content. Just real quick, they need to hear about Bill. Yeah, right. I forgot about him.
Starting point is 00:52:46 Running back five here and fantasy points per touch. George Crosky Merritt. He's coming. I'm actually pretty excited for him. I think it might take a little while, but I think it makes so much sense for him to start getting a lot of work now with the unfortunate Austin Eccler injury. All right, so Wizzie McWizzers says,
Starting point is 00:53:03 any good, by-low, wide receivers. He brings up Cortland Sutton, who had a really bad game, one catch for six yards on four targets. Brian Thomas, Jr., has been basically the talk of fantasy Twitter, and Marvin Harrison, Jr., two catches for 27 yards on five targets,
Starting point is 00:53:19 after a nice game at New Orleans in week one. Any good buy, low, wide receivers guys, Jacob? I'll sign off on BTJ. Of course, we don't know, like, what's going to happen mentally or whatever is going on there. Like, sometimes players get the yips or whatever, and the vibes are extremely weird there. I could not, I haven't got to the film yet,
Starting point is 00:53:43 and I've started to. I could not believe how negative people were being online about BTJ. Well, did you see all the, Alligator arms and stuff like that? I know. I know, but it's just like this guy is the man. Like he's the truth. He's everything. Like everybody loves this guy so much
Starting point is 00:53:57 and people are like, get this guy off my team. Like, really? Brian Thomas Jr.? Like, I'll take him. That seems crazy to me. I agree. He had 12 freaking targets and Travis Hunter's playing two thirds of the snaps and, you know, we don't know what his role is going to be. I think, look, I looked at four receivers.
Starting point is 00:54:14 Jamar Chase had 10 catches for 97 yards through the first two weeks of last year. Drake London had 69 yards, one touchdown to the first two weeks of last year. Cortland Sutton had 64 yards. Terry McLoran had 39 yards to the first two weeks of last year. Now, what did they all have in common? Chase, London, Sutton, and McLaurin, first two weeks of 2024. Their quarterbacks did not get off to good starts.
Starting point is 00:54:42 Lawrence did just have a pretty good game, and I think that's what's concerning. at least, okay, I mean, he didn't have that grade of a game like breaking down the film. But for fantasy purposes, he had a pretty productive game and Brian Thomas Jr. had some drops. He also nearly, you know, he had an end zone target. So that's a little concerning. But I also think about A.J. Brown, who we're about to talk about.
Starting point is 00:55:01 J.L.Hertz is averaging like 140 passing yards with no touchdowns through two games. You know, so take a look at quarterbacks who are off to slow starts. And those, and they're wide receivers. That's where you should be looking right now. now, I think. But I also think Brian Thomas Jr. is just way too good
Starting point is 00:55:20 for this crap to continue. I think he's going to bounce back. I'm confident in him. And people are really angry. And yes, as you said, Jacob, get him off my team. That's a common theme right now for Brian Thomas Jr. I've got a few more quick ones. Terry McLaurin, you mentioned. He had a 38% first
Starting point is 00:55:36 read target rate in week two. So I love to see that. I was worried it might be a slow ease in because the chemistry kind of hasn't been there. But it seems like everything should be fine there and then i think drake london is a really good buy um same especially like after being on an island night where you kind of need something from him to like help you win your your matchup at the end yeah and he doesn't do it like i i could see people being you could you could get london easier than you should be able to which i was my number one
Starting point is 00:56:05 london okay sorry would you rather london or brian thomas jrondon london i had london hire going in i have me i had london hire going in too and i i am actually not as as confident as you guys are in the BTJ bounce back. I just watched a lot of this Jags offense. It does not, like Lawrence does not look good out there. And their connection looks horrible. And by the way,
Starting point is 00:56:24 a lot of his production last year was with Mac Jones. I know. But are we really thinking that this can improve? It's their second game. It can improve. I think obviously he's going to be better. To clarify what I mean, I don't think he's going to be this droppable player.
Starting point is 00:56:37 I just don't think he's going to be anywhere near what we need him to be for fantasy. Mostly because I don't think this Liam Cohen up passing game looks anything like the Baker, Mayfield, Tampa Bake Passing game last year. I'm not sold as going to get there. Well, he doesn't have a great... Brian Thomas Jr. also doesn't have a great schedule coming up. He's got Houston, San Francisco, Kansas City, Seattle, and the Rams, and then a buy. So, I guess...
Starting point is 00:56:59 The best by-low before... Oh, sorry. Yeah, go, no. Go, go. No, it's too late now. The best by-law, I made like 15 to 17 trade offers for him last week and couldn't get any done was Devante Adams. And Jacob has some stats on that, but he's just an absolute stud. again it's it's how much you want to trust matthew stafford playing out being healthy
Starting point is 00:57:17 because yeah yeah that's the only only issue i think why are we just like why does stafford have that label of like we just got to stay away from this one there's like actual injured players in the NFL right now because i well for what it's worth a lot of the twitter doctors seemed pretty concerned about his back great the twitter doctors even he was like we'll see seven ham was supposed to miss like the twitter like we can't keep relying on twitter doctors i'm not relying on them but obviously know if i want to cite them obviously they know everything they're not in the building they know everything yeah they're twitter doctors all right let's uh let's go to our next topic here it's from black rose well actually just wait sorry let's address courtlin sutton
Starting point is 00:57:58 yeah i low on him yeah i'm i'm definitely i think he's definite by low marvin harrison junior no no no i have to give up on my i love marvis and his tape in college was so good, but yikes to what I saw this pet this week. I mean, how do you not torch that defense? Well, he drew about a 40-yard pass interference penalty. He got an end-zone target that was knocked away. So he and Sutton are both getting end-zone targets. If the end-zone target to Cortland Sutton from Bo Nix was, I don't know if it was a
Starting point is 00:58:28 route or not, but it just wasn't even close to connecting. And then Sutton was open on a crosser and Knicks overthrew him for an interception. Knicks didn't have a very good game, I think, in week two. But, you know, look, I would buy low on Harrison, I guess. I value him kind of like T. Higgins, like I said earlier. I still think he's a round five-ish guy. You know, he's a guy that I'm probably going to start most weeks. I don't think he's going to win you your fantasy league.
Starting point is 00:58:53 I think that's just not enough target volume. He's going to get to eight to ten touchdowns, I think. Yeah, and that's okay. 54% first-read target rate for Trey McBride in week two, highest of any player in any position. So it's like, we tried, we tried one week with Marv, and right away, we're back to this. All right, from Black Rose, are the Philly receivers safe starts when Philly has no passing game whatsoever?
Starting point is 00:59:19 I don't think they can be considered safe starts, right? I mean, look, they threw 95 yards passing this game and won the football game. I said this take, it was my hot take of week one. I said, I think the Eagles season is going to look a lot like the chief season last year. And so far, so good on that take, I mean, they don't need to throw the ball to win games. It's clear and obvious. And by the way, as far as just what they actually tried to do in the passing game, I tweeted about this. There's a few tweets if you guys want to find it.
Starting point is 00:59:45 I don't think I can bring it up now. And I don't think we can run the film on here. But, I mean, the passing concepts, the route combinations are so much worse looking than they were with Kellynne Moore. They took a huge step back. There was even a point late in the game where the Eagles were running the same pass concept to the field side. And the chiefs, they'd run it so often in the game that the chiefs guess the route. like they played they switched off perfectly on the receivers the two dbs for the chiefs and there's no safety of over the top and just guess the routes and got there before the receivers that was ugly to see i mean there's also just a slew of just not a lot of a volume here like guess how many pass attempts guess how many dropbacks i should say the eagle's passing game had in the third quarter of this game none they had well that's crazy in the full quarter they had two they had two total dropbacks one was a third and long all out blitz from Spags that he just heaved up there,
Starting point is 01:00:40 Hertz. And the other was like a third and 11 that he like took the underneath checkdown throw to. I mean, everything in this passing game dude is underneath. They're just running quick game concepts. Hertz is just throwing quick game underneath. It looks horrible out there. And this is despite the past protection
Starting point is 01:00:55 looking amazing. Some of these plays, Hertz is just sitting back there and no one is, I guess, open on these route combinations or Hertz is just not looking deep on these route combinations. But they don't need them to. They're winning football games without it. So, like, what's going to change? Like, is it just like the chief slash? Everyone's like,
Starting point is 01:01:11 no, no, it's going to change. Like, they're going to eventually open it up. They eventually get the past game going. They want to get it. But they won games without doing it. So why would anything change here for the Eagles? They've won something like 21 games in a row, 20 or 21 games in a row with Jalen
Starting point is 01:01:27 Hertz. The only game they lost was with Hertz leaving with injury. So this was the first, if you're watching the screen, this was the first play of the game for the Eagles. And, This is the first pass play of the game. And that's A.J. Brown wide open. And Jalen Hertz fumbled there.
Starting point is 01:01:44 They recovered it. But that was really like the only shot they had of A.J. Brown getting a big play. Yeah. So much underneath with Brown. Yeah, it is. I mean, look, Jalen Hertz is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. That is unbelievably awful. He's been 7.2 to 8 yards per attempt in each of his first five NFL seasons.
Starting point is 01:02:05 So, I mean, we should probably only count. at last four, because he didn't play much. But whatever, 7.2 to 8 yards per attempt. That's good. He hasn't thrown a touchdown yet on 45 pass attempts. I get that there could be concept issues. They had issues in 2023 when Brian Johnson was their offensive coordinator. And what did A.J. Brown do that year?
Starting point is 01:02:28 I don't have the stats in front of me, but now I do. He had 106 catches for 1,4,456 yards. Sure. Because those are great stats. No, the difference is the Eagles defense was terrible that year, and they believe they fired the coordinator. The defense is amazing right now. This was my whole argument I made this entire off season about why we can't just assume the Eagles pass volume is going to go up because the defense is too good for it to go up. They don't need to throw the football to win games. And that's clear. And I mean, they're throwing a little bit. They're going underneath concepts. Everything's quick game. It's like slant flat. It's like, you know, curl flat designed to get the, the defender here. It's stuff that can work and move the ball to some extent, but it's essentially all they need.
Starting point is 01:03:09 And then they'll take the deep shots when it's there. I mean, they connected on one to Devante Smith. That was that ball should have been thrown back pile on. I guess it's an okay throw. It looked wildly underthrown to me. Some of the other throws are bad. What they need to do more of because they hit it once at him and Jacob, they hit a big screen to Devante Smith in its game. But the talent that they have on the offensive line, they need to throw more of these quick hitting bubble screens to Devante Smith.
Starting point is 01:03:31 And even AJ Brown, in my opinion, to get some passing year. hearts here. I don't know how else to get them. Okay, here's the deal. The question was, can we trust them? No. You cannot trust Devante Smith when Dallas Goddard plays. I think that's pretty simple. You trust AJ Brown? But you can definitely, I think you can, they threw for 101 yards yesterday. Do we really think the Eagles are this bad? This is the worst. It's not a matter of bad. It's that they don't need to throw. But they're going to do better than this. I mean, all right, we had a bad stretch last year for AJ Brown. It was weeks six through 15. It's a lot of games. In that stretch,
Starting point is 01:04:05 Jaylen Hertz averaged 22 and a half pass attempts per game, which is exactly what he did yesterday, I think. They went 10 and 0, ran the ball all the time. A.J. Brown averaged 15.8 p.pr. Fantasy points per game. That's not great for him, but it's still
Starting point is 01:04:21 a must start player. And, you know, he's not going to return second round value at that rate. That's more like third round value, maybe early fourth, but that, you know, he was on pace for only 114 targets. But he turned it into a 1,400-yard pace with seven touchdowns. So the fact is, A.J. Brown, every year of his career has been one of the most efficient
Starting point is 01:04:41 wide receivers in football. Right now, he is averaging 0.8 yards after the catch with the lowest a dot of his career. I just feel like there might be some underlying issues, this and that, but this is A.J. Brown we're talking about here. And Jalen Hurts is better than people give him credit for. And I think he'll turn it around. Now, I am worried that he's not going to be nearly as good as I thought, but I do think you buy low on AJ Brown, because he's A.J. Freakin'Bron. That's why I'm that is I'm fine buying low, especially if it's like cheap. Super low, yeah. Brown was wide receiver 12 and fantasy points for game last year. Devonti Smith was wider zero 15. Of course, there's context here. What Dan is bringing up about
Starting point is 01:05:21 Kellamore not being there anymore is important. But it's like, they're so good that they will give you good weeks with the bad ones and will probably be near where you. you drafted them as like a floor, and then there is, because they're so good, there is this ceiling of things don't go the way that we've seen. If there ends up being more passing for whatever reason, or if any of their teammates get hurt, which maybe AJ Brown's already dealing with an injury. I don't really know. That's something that people have speculated on. Well, he was. He had a hamstring injury going in, I think it was hamstring going into the year. People didn't really love what he looked like in week one. I personally thought he looked fine in week two,
Starting point is 01:06:00 but I'm not an expert on that. But no yards after the catch. Matt Harmon thought that he looked like a decoy in terms of the way that they used him in a week one. He wasn't moving around and getting in the slot and stuff like that as much. He was mostly just working down the field. I think that's a Kellyn Moore issue, though, with this. Maybe. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:06:18 Well, his slot rate is 5% this year, AJ Brown. The past game looks, I'm not saying from a Hurt's standpoint, from an offensive play calling and design standpoint, looked horrific in week two. To me, if you can get Devante Smith for cheap, I'm totally into that. And I'm even fine with Brown taking a shot on it. Super cheap, yeah. I made a trade, and you guys can judge it. I made a trade with shout out Adi. He listens to these episodes. He offered me this past week, A.J. Brown and Aaron Jones for Kiann Coleman, Ricky Pearson, and I accepted that trade. And I accepted that how do you feel about that trade? Yeah, done. Well, I don't love it now that Jones has a hamstring injury.
Starting point is 01:06:54 Yeah, well, this is before Jones's hamstring injury. I think that was a good trade. I'll say, I don't know. It just doesn't feel good. I thought it was a good trade. And then, I watched this game, and it's the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a good defense. Spags is blitzing. He's putting everybody at the line of scrimmage, and the Eagles don't need to throw, but it's just, I don't know, man.
Starting point is 01:07:11 It looked so bad the past game. So here's the question. If we're buying low, who can we trade for A.J. Brown? So I'll throw out some names. Would you trade Tyreek Hill for A.J. Brown? No. I'm fine with it. Would you trade Alvin Camara for A.J. Brown?
Starting point is 01:07:25 Yeah. No. Okay. I don't think you're going to see eye to eye here. Would you trade Cam Scataboo? I mean, I want to. I want to believe in H.J. Brown. Jameson, or A.J. Brown.
Starting point is 01:07:38 A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown. Would you trade? Oh, this is a good. I don't know that I do this. Unless the lions are playing at home or in a dome. I don't know that I'd trade Teterol and McBillan for A.J. Brown. Am I crazy?
Starting point is 01:07:47 I wouldn't. Yeah, I think I would just hold T.M.ack and see what we'd get here. I would take a Bucca. If somebody said a Bucca or A.J. Brown, I'd take a Bucca. Yeah. Not worried about Chris Gobwin. In which case, I shouldn't have probably traded Ricky Pearsall for him, but I'm happy to trade Peirsel Jennings is looking good, A. Purdy's out, and by the time Purdy's back, Iyuk's going to be playing.
Starting point is 01:08:08 Debo Samuel or AJ Brown, Dan? Debo, I was super high on D. Oh, wow. J. Brown. I'm so mad I didn't get Debo in every league. George Pickens are A.J. Brown, Dan. Oh, give me pickens, baby. Wow.
Starting point is 01:08:20 Wow. All right. Super low on AJ Brown. No, this is getting a little ridiculous. I have to take Brown over these guys. I probably would have to do the deal. and it has to get better for Brown but when and why
Starting point is 01:08:30 like when and why are they going to start throwing the football well again I gave you that stretch where he averaged over 15 points per game they averaged 22.5 pass attempts per game so they don't have to AJ Brown you have to believe well in order to trade for him
Starting point is 01:08:46 you have to believe that he can be you know a must start guy maybe not an elite number one but a must start guy is at least a number two if they are a 22 pass attempt game type of team, which is on the table. After tonight's games, they're going to have the third lowest pass attempts in the NFL. So, you know, I believe that he could still be, you know, among the leaders in yards per out run, yards per target, like he almost always is, and maximize it.
Starting point is 01:09:11 I don't feel that way about Devante Smith, though. So that's one guy that I would be looking to sell. He says, I'm surprised Dan is still in on Pickens. Why are you surprised? He didn't have the most encouraging game. You know, they threw 55 passes. Right. That's the point. If the Giants can force them into that kind of game script, everyone's going to force them into that kind of game script. The Dallas defense is horrific. The only worst coordinator I've seen in the NFL to Shane Bowen, the Giants defense coordinator might be Aberflus. He played, and I said it last week. He played 100% zone against the Eagles. Everyone's like, oh, it's just a way to defend it, Jalen Hertz. He played 96% zone against the Giants. And Mike Kafka made a fool of him, just flooding zones and just having over-the-top shots for neighbors in Wondale. Wondale Robinson came into. the game. I think you had this stat, Jacob, with never having more than nine, only one time in his whole career having more than 90 air yards, had 160 air yards running wide open up the seam. That defense is an absolute mess from a talent standpoint and from a coaching standpoint. And they're going to be in shootouts all year. So yes, I'm still in on Pickens. Love to hear it. I was pretty nervous yesterday around third quarter of the Pickens game. It's not always going to be great, but the game script will be. I don't know where to track this, but I think he's drawn two past interference penalties near the end. zone now he did he did yesterday right yes and he definitely did in week one so pickens is getting some production production taken off the board all right we're going to go thanks everybody for
Starting point is 01:10:38 watching and listening to be on the box score talk to tomorrow on fantasy football is a mystery. We don't know what we're looking for. Their bodies are the scene of the crime. Their symptoms in history are clues. We saved her life. We're doctors and we're detectives. I kind of love it if I'm being honest.
Starting point is 01:11:10 Solve the puzzle, save the patient. Watson, all episodes now streaming on Paramount Plus.

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