Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Can We Trust Kyler? Tua? Kupp? Any Seahawks? (12/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 16, 2024

We're focusing on Week 16 and which players we can trust. Speaking of which, let's recap Packers-Seahawks (4:10) and see if we can trust anyone in these passing games going forward, especially if Sam Howell takes over at quarterback for the Seahawks ... News and notes (11:10) and a bunch of advanced stats (16:00) from Jacob. He talks about Keon Coleman, Sam LaPorta, James Conner, the Cowboys offensive line, Rico Dowdle and more ... Four Big Topics: Which Week 15 duds will bounce back in Week 16 (48:00)? Can we start Kyler Murray or Justin Herbert (53:10)? What happened to the Dolphins offense on Sunday (55:15)? How much does game script matter (1:01:30)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Please VOTE for Fantasy Football Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Fantasy Betting and Gaming Podcast" category: https://bit.ly/3Zxw3uS Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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with iGaming Ontario. This is fantasy football Today from CBS Sports. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Coming up on Beyond the Box Score today on Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sports book born in Vegas. We are going to talk about Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. We are going to talk about the Dolphins offense.

Basically, we're going to talk about who can we trust in Fantasy Week 16, if of course you were lucky enough to get to Fantasy Week 16. If not, play some DFS. Welcome everybody. Adam Hazer, Jacob Gibbs Gibbs Dan Schneier here on a Monday afternoon and man the quarterbacks rough week for quarterbacks Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes and Tommy DeVito and who else there's some replacements Spencer Rattler got benched James Winston got benched Tommy DeVito I mentioned it anyway rough week for quarterbacks.

And by the way, David Montgomery out indefinitely with an MCL injury. So if you're playing against Jameer Gibbs next week, you're screwed, it's over. What's going on guys? How we doing? Well, I'll start by pouring one out for my fantasy teams. No, you're done?

Not done, but listen to this for doing bad in week 16 and for how tilted I was the entire weekend, slamming things, 14 leagues, three I had to buy. So those all have a chance at next week of the 11 other teams. How many do you think I have a percentage over 50%, you know, how they do the percentage of your chance to win going into these two Monday night games of the 11 remaining teams. Three. Zero, zero.

I am an underdog in every matchup. Not only that, only two matchups do I have any chance. So nine I'm already done in. Nine of the 11. So I have my three bi-week teams, one of which is Patrick Mahomes and David Montgomery. Great, I'm done, it's too Gubi League. But like, I'm so tilted out by this week of fantasy.

I feel like it was a weird week too. I feel like weird scores, just a bad week overall. Besides- How many leagues are you in? You made the playoffs in 14? I made, I'm in playoffs in 14, but I'm in 20. I was in 23 leagues. Okay.

That's a good percentage. I'm including Dynasty though. That's pretty good, right? Yeah, it's a good week. Including Dynasty though. How does it go for you, Jacob? It was kind of a frustrating week, but I got a couple that I'm alive and still and then also have some bi-weeks that I feel good about next week.

Me and you next week in the magazine league. Well, I probably just jinxed it now because Schaeffer still has a chance. Schaeffer never has a chance. Yeah, no, he's got 20% chance to come back and win tonight. All right. But last night he had Josh Jacobs. That was good for him He also had Cooper Cup on Thursday, though Green Bay 30 and Seattle 13 The so so going into this game, you know based on on the week before week 14 for Seattle against, Arizona

They had a really good game. Charbonne had that huge game and their coach McDonald talked a lot about their offensive line, how well their offensive line played. Well, in this game, it did not play well. The Packers had the second highest pressure rate of week 15 with the third lowest blitz rate. So just a rough night and then of course you got the Geno Smith injury. So we're not really so much into rest of season projections at this point here, but what are you guys gonna do about JSN and DK Metcalf next week if Sam Howell

is the quarterback against the Vikings? So for me, obviously being in a spot in two leagues where I need a quarterback super flex, I was looking into this. I think it'll be better for how old when he gets a week to prepare for sure. But what I don't like is the matchup for Seattle this next week or the week after that, I was looking into it. I think both are bad spots, potential bad weather in one of them. Um, cold I'm out entirely on the sea of passing game. I mean, yeah, we could help how old, but he hasn't had reps with these guys all year.

There's absolutely no rapport with these wide receivers. And I am not as high on this offense all year. I haven't been very high on them because of the offensive line play. Uh, so I would probably downgrade every single player there. I guess you could maybe desperation start JSN. Is that, is that how you're looking at it?

Jacob or a little bit different? Yeah, I'm basically right with you. I don't want to use any of them. Charbonneur, I think you can start if walkers out. Yeah. Um, yeah, like much DK Mech, I have to get a single target on 18 routes running with the same Hall Walker's out. Yeah. Yeah. Don't expect much. DK Metcalf didn't get a single target on 18 routes run with Sam Howell at QB. Yeah.

The 14 pass attempts from Sam Howell. And it was basically Metcalf zero targets, JSN four, Charbonne three, Noafant four, AJ Barner three. And he threw for 24 yards, Sam Howell. This is a guy- He just looked overwhelmed in the pocket. Yeah.

When he had every drop back. Yeah, and he takes a ton of sacks and he's great for the Vikings DST for next week. They're gonna sack him a ton if he's the guy. He led the NFL in pass attempts last year. So he's got experience. And I just wanna remind everybody because like Dan said, it'll be better.

Go look at Cooper Rush's first start. It was almost as bad. It may be worse than what Sam Howell did. Go look at Mac Jones's first start. It was almost as bad. It may be worse than what Sam Howe did. Go look at Mac Jones's first start with the Jaguars. He's played better. So it will be better for Sam Howe, but it will be a struggle. Charbonneur's gonna be tough to keep out of your lineup

if Ken Walker is out. All right, on the other side of the ball, Jacob, what did we think of Green Bay, who is the new Eagles? The Eagles, since the Eagles by a week, the Eagles are the most pass have run heavy team in football. Since the Packers by a week, which I think was five games ago,

they're the second most run heavy team, sorry. Most run heavy team. They basically are doing exactly what the Eagles do. They never throw the ball. And Josh Jacobs has scored over 20 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. What do you think about the Packers going forward? Jacob?

Yeah, it's a good, uh, good year to have Jacobs for sure. You're feeling good here. You're going strong in the playoffs. Uh, it's really just a hope and a prayer with the rest of these guys. Um, Romeo Dobbs, they get a two touchdowns did lead the team in routes run. So I guess you can feel pretty good about him. Cause I didn't really like this matchup schematically. This, he occupies a lot of press coverage and that's something he struggled against.

So it was good to see him have a good game. But yeah, Jayden Reed, 75% route rate, same as Christian Watson. They said they were going to try to find him ways to get him more involved. He did get three rush attempts, but he only got three routes and two receiver sets, which is technically more than usual, but it's still hardly any. So yeah, I don't, him and Watson are just, you're just hoping for big plays. Yeah.

I mean, I was like encouraged by Watson a little bit because he's, he played a lot. He didn't play the almost a hundred percent that he did when Dobbs played, but 78% snap share for Watson. That was pretty high for him in a game with Romeo Dobbs, probably his highest in a game with Romeo Dobbs probably his highest in a game with Romeo Dobbs and six targets is pretty good on 20 pass attempts but or 27 past

times excuse me but 27 past temps can't do much with that so not a must start among the among the passing game for Green Bay and Tucker craft a huge disappointment. I almost feel like it's a little simplistic to say Romeo Dobbs in Tucker Kraft bad, but it's kind of what's been happening. So the Romeo, I don't know how he would affect him in a negative way. It doesn't make sense to me. And he's still like, his role was the same. I don't know their targets where they come, don't overlap at all. I would think of anything. It would help to have a field stretcher. And this

is just kind of a random thing that's happened over a few games, but. Could be. That's just speculation, yeah. Could be, but he'll again be tough to trust. All right, well, we won't linger on this game. We'll see what happens with the quarterbacks, with the quarterback situation for Seattle going forward.

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Should we just do it? We could share the screen. Yeah, just let's go vote. We haven't voted yet. I haven't voted yet. I'm gonna vote today. I'm gonna vote right now on my other computer. Schaefer's gonna vote on his computer,

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Yeah. I'm pretty much done here. Yeah, so you take that how long it took Adam that was about 1416 seconds divide that by two or three. Okay, no, I wouldn't say that I think I did it in that 30 that was about 30 seconds. We're doing it. So for normal, you know, a decent person with technology will take it 13 and I voted for fantasy football type believe I was able to pull that off So anyway, it's sports podcast group comm vote now fantasy betting and gaming fantasy football today

Alright news and notes. So we've got my homes week to week with an ankle sprain They play Saturday then they play Wednesday So, you know could miss why would they play him other than trying to rush him for the bye? I don't think they're going to. When do you think he's coming back in? What is your guys guess on that? Christmas. Yeah, I have no idea. I mean, that would give him nine days to rest.

Gino Smith with the knee and Tommy DeVito is in the concussion protocol. Drew Locke could play. They could be one of three quarterbacks for the Giants. You know what? For neighbor's sake, it's best if they get Tim Boyle in there as sad and as pathetic as that sounds. Awesome. It's the actual- Yeah, I don't know

if I agree with that, man. Tim Boyle is bad. It's a hundred percent. It's based on that game, but man, like he's had, I think he made a start for the Jets last year, right? Yeah, against the Dolphins. He's not a good quarterback. I'm not making the case. I think it's, I'd rather have Locke. No, no, no, no. Locke was just so off to off time.

I mean, this guy Boyle, he actually throws a little bit of anticipation, which is what led to like all of those neighbors catches. All right. All right. And for the running backs. Okay. David Montgomery is out indefinitely. I don't think- Nice to have him on three fantasy teams myself, yes.

I have him on my Super Flex league, yeah. It's great, just great. Gonna be tough. Kamara groin injury. Nick Chubb broken foot. Jaleel McLaughlin quad injury. And actually in the first half of the Broncos game, Jaleel McLaughlin was actually out snapped

by Javante Williams. He had more carries than Javante, but it's just, it's so hard to see anybody just running away with his backfield at any point, but maybe Javante will get a bigger share Thursday at the Chargers if McLaughlin is out. Joe Mixon left in the second quarter. Now he came back, but remember he got hurt similarly early in the year, came back in the game and then missed a couple of weeks. I'm not saying that's going to happen. I hope it doesn't, but we'll keep an eye on Nixon

and Pollard with his ankle. And that's pretty much the big news there. AJ Brown. I haven't seen an update on AJ Brown, but he got, uh, looked like an ankle injury very late in that game. Alec Pierce concussions, Xavier league at groin injury, Zach Earth's concussion, Travis Kelsey's nursing and ankle injury. Offensive line Philadelphia guard Landon Dickerson left in the third quarter and Seattle center Olu Oluwatimi left with a knee injury and on defense. So we know Max Crosby is out for the season. His team plays tonight.

Cleveland had another cornerback leave. Martin Emerson Jr. with a concussion. Dante Jackson for Pittsburgh and TJ Watt. TJ Watt's a big one, obviously, but I think he's okay because he was at, he was, Mike Tomlin gave sort of an encouraging update on him today, but we'll keep our fingers crossed big time. That's a huge one for the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. And Patrick Sertan, let's call him questionable for Thursday's game. It's not a serious injury, but it is a short week at the Chargers.

They've already faced the Chargers once and Sertan played one snap in that game. And Justin Herbert didn't really have that good of a game. I'm gonna stop with the defensive injuries for now, except for the Detroit Lions, because not only did they lose David Montgomery, they lost three key defensive players probably for the season. Two defensive backs and defensive tackle Aleem McNeil, who is a star.

And McNeil is a really, really big loss for them. Yeah. And, and it sucks as a Giants fan because the Eagles are now a favorite, I would say, to win the NFC. But it's good for the Giants because we want the Eagles to be playing for something in week 18. Oh, you're right. You're right. You're right. Now we don't want to do, we don't want them to have like a lead where they can sit people, but we certainly don't want the Giants beating the Eagles backups in week 18. We don't want that everybody. All right. if you have not signed up yet for BetMGM, let's use the bonus code fantasy and get up to a $1,500 first bet offer

on your first wager with BetMGM. And here's how it works. You download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You're gonna receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code fantasy

when you sign up on BetMGM. Also, if you've already done that, let me know. I'd love to know who's been using the BetMGM app and used our promo code, that'd be awesome. Let's get a couple minutes before we go to break, Jacob, give me some headlines in the advanced stats, the advanced metrics world that you live in. Okay, I've got background noise.

If it's annoying, this might be a Dan Schneier impression time, is that real? Is that a thing we could do? Oh, Dan, have you been working on it? It's not ready. All right, all right, all right. Okay. Okay, you said, do you say headlines?

You want all of them or what do you, I'm not sure. Well, I gotta take a break in a couple of minutes. So give me one or two good ones here. Okay. A couple of running back notes. James Connor, they've got a bunch of injuries in their backfield. So we saw a 75% route rate for Connor this week. That's the highest it's been all year.

He also saw three or five opportunities. So these are rushes or targets from inside the 10 yard line in this game. On the year, his opportunity rate from inside the 10 is the sixth highest at running back. So I just wanted to highlight him. Like he, he's somebody who I've traded away. I thought I was so smart.

This is my strategy was like draft James Connor and then trade him away mid season. And it's like, nope. It looks like he's just going to be like a top five running back down the stretch, like legitimate league winner. He's the engine for the offense and never more so than right now with these injuries. And then the other one I wanted to highlight was Rico Dowdell. We keep bringing him up because he's been so surprisingly good.

And I do think a big part of that is the Cowboys offensive line. So he's been just racking up yards before contact all year. In this game, we saw him lead the NFL in yards after contact, 88 yards after contact rushing in this game. He also led the NFL and avoided tackles, which is really unusual. He had 15 missed tackles forced through 13 games before this week. This week he made, he forced a missed tackles in one game. Um, so that's all great. And then the other thing is it hasn't come to fruition yet. He's not getting any targets.

I think he had zero in this game. Um, but his route rate keeps rising at a 67% route rate this week, um, which is the percentage of drop-backs that he runs a rat on that was the fourth highest at the running back position and the highest for Dattle all year. Um, another just, but you didn't have a catch. Did not know it's crazy. Yeah. Another good note for the Cowboys offensive line is they had by far the

lowest pressure rate this week in terms of pressure allowed only 14%. Um, Baker Mayfield and Bowdix are the only guys even below 20 other than Cooper rush. So this is it's working. Um, we saw a CD lamb had by far as highest, uh, first retarder rate of the season this week. this is, it's working. We saw a CD lamb had by far as highest first retarder rate of the season this week. The offense is simple and it's just like force feed CD lamb

and then let Rico just dominate. And like it's working because the offensive line is playing so well. Yeah. But you know, just, just to push back one thing the Panthers have the worst pass Russian football. They have the second or third few as sacks, but the lowest pressure rate in football. So it was a good matchup and they really took advantage of.

They got after the Eagles the week before that. It's obviously not a good pass rush for sure, but. Yeah, I forget who the Panthers play next week. Is it the Cardinals? I'm not sure. It's the Cardinals, right? And so that's gonna be a lot of, let me just double check. Yeah, it is. it's the Cardinals, right? And so that's going to be a lot of, let me just double check. Yeah, it is.

It's the Cardinals at home. It's a long trip and a one o'clock start for the Cardinals. But you know, a lot of people are going to talk about Kyler Murray later. I want to talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. Can they take advantage of this Cardinals matchup next week? We'll see. Give me one more. One more?

Okay. Just for now. The Lions, the Lions had 62 drop backs this week, which is one of the highest of any team all year. And that's good for Jameer Gibbs. We saw him run 46 routes, which I wanted to look this up, but I didn't get to it. That has to be one of the highest for a running back in any game this year. And then Sam Laporta had an 84% route rate in this game. That was easily his highest mark of the season. So even on

a game where they threw a ton, his rate was the highest it's been all year. And we saw that come to fruition in a big way in terms of the stats. Obviously this type of game is not characteristic of who the Lions are, but with David Montgomery out, it's possible that they do shift to more passing, I think. And we've seen Laporta trend this way for a while now. he had a 66% route rate prior to the week 11 by since then it's been 70% or higher in every game. And then that culminated in 84% this week and the targets were there as well. Um, so he's, you know, probably top six tight end and that,

in that range going forward, like, um, I, I would, I think you could justify putting him over Travis Kelsey from this point on. That's assuming that that Mahomes is out you're saying? Even if Mahomes wasn't like, yeah, but yeah, I think it might get better with Alma because it's crazy. Like, yeah, no, I mean, so like as a golf manager in two of my remaining leagues, um, pretty pumped about this week, obviously next week could be completely different, right? They got Chicago, Chicago has a dreadful run defense and nobody throws on them. pretty pumped about this week, obviously. Next week could be completely different, right? They got Chicago, Chicago has a dreadful run defense

and nobody throws on them and Chicago's not gonna throw, put up the same amount of points that Buffalo put up. So I was kind of almost discouraged last night when we were talking about it. But the Montgomery injury might change things a little bit. I agree, you know, and golf is obviously rolling right now, playing great. So it'll be, and it be as like as if golf has a good game, the port is probably got a you know, got at least a good chance to have a good game. I will talk about that

more. I want to know. I want to know if you guys after we take a break, I want to know what you think. I had an opinion about the Bill's Lions game yesterday about whether or not it was a good game, a great game, whatever. And I want to know what you guys think. Am I completely out of my mind? We'll find out after this on Fantasy Football Today. So we're back here. And yesterday, you know, Jamie makes me feel sometimes like I am on another planet. But I said that like it was a good game, great from a fantasy perspective. But I did not think it was that great of a game because the Lions were chasing the entire time and there was really never a point

where the outcome felt in doubt. It was Buffalo's game. They forced a punt, I think, and then they scored and they led the entire game and the Lions were just chasing. They scored with barely any time left to set up an onside kick, but it was basically a two possession game for most of the fourth quarter. To me, it just, and then the chat,

the chat killed me for it. But I think the chat did that because they were just piggybacking on Jamie personally. Like if Jamie had been like, yeah, Adam, it's a good point. They would be like, oh, good point, Adam. But like they just turned on me. But this game, just because it had a whole bunch of points, okay, 90 points, That didn't make it a great game. It wasn't really that competitive to be quite honest. Am I crazy? I think that's fair. Like the game, the prior week with Buffalo

felt a lot more competitive, even though it was kind of the same thing where they were chasing, but it felt like they were right there coming back. I didn't really ever feel like Detroit was in range. I think we're at a point here where as fans we're looking for points, we're looking for offense. Offense is fun and exciting, but I'm still like the old curmudgeon who likes games that are

like back and forth. I don't mind punts. I don't mind fuel position type games where like defenses are coming up with big stops. Uh, I thought we might be getting that at, at, at the beginning of the second half of that Seattle game for a turnaround. Like I like to see it come back. Obviously their offense couldn't get it going. So I don't hate to take by you, Adam, but I will say this, like it wasn't a bad game. No, no, it was definitely, definitely not offense. Definitely not a bad game. I can't find, I can't figure out what the best game of the week was because

Washington, New Orleans had the best finish, but it was a horrible game. Um, Miami Houston was closed to a place. Those, they played so hard to watch. No, but it was a horrible game. Miami Houston was closed to a place. Those days they played so hard to watch. No. What else? There was my great game. Oh, Jets Jaguars, Jets Jaguar. No, no, no, no. Stop it. Stop it. That was a great game. Stop it right now. See, now you're getting into the territory where I can understand this bias. This is biased because we think Jets Jaguars being two bad teams can't play a better game than Lions Bills who are two good teams. But they did play a better game.

It was a better game than Lions Bills. Okay. So like last year when the Giants played the Patriots and it came down to a missed field game. That was a horrible game. At the last second, is that a better game? That was a horrible game with bad like that was a low scoring. That was a low score. Okay. It was a bad week, folks. It was a

bad week. There was really not a great game on the sketch. Like that didn't turn it look on paper like a great week, but it wasn't. Yeah, I was watching the Colts Broncos game instead of the Lions game. And that was a mistake. You love watching Anthony Richardson. Oh, man. Yeah, I'm gonna say Jets-Jags was the best game this week. Bad week though. What a take to die.

Go ahead, go ahead. Give me a better game. Already Detroit Bills I like better than the Jets-Jags. Okay, I mean, fine. You're only saying that. They're playing for nothing. They're three and ten. That's not what I'm talking about. Take all the context out. You can't take the context out. That's why we care. That's what makes it good.

That's a different conversation. Like that. That's like, you know what? That's like saying, the best catch, like you people like, Oh, what's the best catch ever? And then like, well, that one happened to the Super Bowl. But that bet clearly better one happened in week four. But since that would happen, no, I think it's fair to say that the Super Bowl one, yeah, it meant more. So it makes it better.

All right, you know what? I think you're right and I think I'm right. I think we're both, I think it's just the difference of viewpoint. Jacob, let's get back to the advanced metrics. All right, on the Buffalo Bills note, Keon Coleman returned and ran more routes than Amari Cooper. So did Dalton Kincaid.

So Cooper was, I think, fifth on the team in routes run. Both of those, Kincaid's not a rookie, but those two youngsters both had a route rate above 50%. Cooper's was at 41% behind Matt Collins, behind Khalil Shaqir, and Dawson Knox. Dawson Knox apparently led the bills with a a 65% route rate according to TrueMedia. So that's a really unusually low rate for a team leader. And it just shows like how many guys are mixing in for the Bills here. Like they even kept Curtis Samuel involved. He had 11 routes run. So it's ugly. Obviously, you know that with the result for Cooper. And this is the inverse of last week for Cooper in the Bills, where it's like the worst game script for him.

A game script for him for fantasy is going to be set up where they're taking shots down the field. They didn't really need to do that in this game. He did play more early on and not as much in the second half. So maybe it could be better going forward, but there's just so many guys here that I think you just kind of have to avoid them.

30% first-rate target chair for Khalil Shakir. So even with these guys back still lead the team, 25% for Kincaid. Kincaid, this will shock you. I think on the year Dalton Kincaid is tightened two in targets per route run, 31 qualifiers. He's tightened seven in yards per route run on the season. He really on a per route basis hasn't been that bad. It's just been an annoying season.

And also this is a little bit influenced by his route rate, not being quite as high as some of these other guys that he's typically around like 70%. Whereas, you know, Travis Kelsey might be more like 85%. But yeah, he only has two touchdowns on the year and he's still in the same range as David and Joku, Evan Ingram, Travis year and he's still in the same range as David Njoku, Evan Ingram, Travis Kelsey, and Sam Laporta in fantasy points per out run. So there's more of a long-term note than anything else. There were opportunities for him to have a good game this week and going forward, he

could be productive. But I think more of this is like a dynasty note. Like it has been quite as bad of a year as you thought. I was just thinking about that last night, I feel like I'm going to end up with a lot of David with a lot of David and Joker. Sorry, you mentioned him, right? With a lot of Dalton Kincaid next year, if he's, you know, like a 10th round pick or something, because I just feel like I couldn't really get any

worse for him. It's just been kind of an unlucky year. And he's good. I think he's a good player. So I'm glad you brought that up. All right. Let's play a game. Who has a higher yard per hour run rate, Keon Coleman or courtland sudden. Yeah, I'm going to go with, uh, with courtland sudden. This feels like a trick rate stat question. So I'm going to go. No, you know what? I'm going with sudden. It's a, wow. You had a, your intuition was right. It's Keon Coleman, Ke know what? I'm going with Sutton. Wow. You had it. Your intuition was right. It's Cian Coleman.

Cian Coleman or Jackson Smith and Jigba. Guess it's Coleman based on the way you're praising them. You guys are good at this. Yes. Cian Coleman or Jameson Williams. It is somehow Coleman. No, it's Jameson. You heard the way he said Jameson Williams.

I can tell. The inflection in the Williams. The intonation. Jameson Williams. Cian Coleman. Cian Coleman or Jerry Judy with Jameslection in the Williams. The intonation. Yeah. James and Williams. Keon Coleman. Ah! Keon Coleman or Jerry Judy with James Winston on the field. Jerry Judy. Come on.

I didn't think about it. Yeah, it's Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy with James Winston on the field has a 2.51 yard per route run rate, which is tied with Jamar Chase and is only behind Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, and Nico Collins. So that is just something I wanted to commemorate because it seems like, I don't know, maybe the James time is over,

but it was a very special time. And Judy showed us some really crazy stuff during that time. Yeah, you can't really go. Okay, all right, here we go, here we go. No, I think this is a reasonable take. I think everyone's gonna agree with this. This is an easy, easy take the drop off from Winston to Dorian Thompson Robinson is much bigger than the drop off from my homes to Wentz. Yeah. Hold on. Let me process this. Let me process this from a fantasy. This is from a fantasy standpoint. Yes. let me process this. For the receivers.

For the receivers. Now are we talking, we're just talking this year, correct? The fantasy landscape that is this year for the Chiefs, correct? Yeah. Like the Chiefs will be less, the Chiefs receiving core will be less impacted by Wentz

instead of Mahomes, then the Browns receiving core will be impacted by DTR from Winston. Correcting, correcting. Easy. You're going from like 250 catchable air yards per game to like 50. Right.

And then from the mo homes to when's like, what are you losing? Really? Like, I mean, you're losing a lot in real life. Let me make that clear. Wentz is horrible. Even though now you've gone too far. He might be better with Reed.

Andy might've made him passable, but like they don't, those receivers, the point that I'm making is those receivers already aren't fantasy starters for us. I mean, we can we can flex worthy occasionally and pray with Hopkins. But like it's not a good situation. He saves it. He saves it. Yeah.

But no, with Kelsey though, I don't know. I'm probably going to treat Kelsey more like going three for twenty seven every game. What are we really losing? Okay. What the we really losing? Okay. What the hell is going on? Let's go back, Jacob. I love podcast. Um, okay.

So not enough routes to qualify, but one rookie who has a higher yard per hour and rate than Keon Coleman, Jalen Coker, 2.07 yards per hour run. I will say this, Jacob, Like on a stat like that. He had a what? 93 yard touchdown this week. Uh-huh. So like, I don't know. So true.

I'm just gonna say I don't love that stat. So true. Yeah. Big plays definitely in Flay yards per hour run. Um, an astute point from Dan. Keon Coleman has had a lot of big plays. This was all for fun. Um, Keon Coleman's yard per hour rate is two,

Jalen Coker's is 2.07. I did wanna bring up Coker because it was him and Adam Thielen and Xavier Liggett who were all playing. It was not any, David Moore, I almost forgot his name already. All those guys had a route rate above 70% in the first half, then Liggett injured his groin. Coker ended up with an 84% route rate, 22% target share in the game, 26% for Adam Thielen in the first half, then Lee get injured his groin. Coker ended up with an 84% route rate, 22% target share in the game,

26% for Adam Thielen in the game. So we'll see, it was a regression game for Bryce Young. I think that's fair to say, but yeah, it's a decent volume, it could be something down the stretch. Can I ask you guys, do you know who Larry Coker is? Sounds familiar. I've heard the name, I feel like it's like a Miami basketball coach from the past.

Is that right? He's Miami's last national championship football coach. I knew it was one of the two. Wow, nice. That was not a hard one. He coached Ken Dorsey, he was his offensive coordinator. I knew it was one of the two. And Sean Taylor.

I'm still mad at Adam for not having any kind of faith or hyping me at all when it comes to potential of camp war to the Giants. Like he's made me feel so down on that possibility. I'll tell you, he's a better prospect than Bonix. So Bonix having a decent rookie year. So cam ward can too. Yeah, that's still not making me feel much better. Just real quick on Brian Thomas Jr. I've been told that I need

to be less vocal about Brian Thomas Jr. I've been told that I need to be less vocal about Brian Thomas Jr. Sorry, by the way, for keying you guys on BTJ all year. He had five screens this week, which was way more than we've seen for him that tied for the highest game by a wide receiver all year. And his first three targets were all screens. So that's just funny to me that Doug, like, we've got to get him the ball. How do we do that? Just throw up screens over and over. Interesting. All right. That was a good one. That was a good

stat. I said to Jacob before the show, I was like, I feel like our podcast is sponsored by Brian Thomas Jr. Just because he's that awesome. Every week, we have really is just because he's that awesome week. Every week we have really is just because he's that awesome. Yeah, he is amazing. So all right, give me your give me your top three dynasty rookies. I'll go neighbors one I mean, because freaking just literally just what Dan said earlier, like, boil would be the best option for him. Yeah. Um, that's insane what he's had to deal with this year and he's still like been kind of productive.

Um, but then BJ is clear too, for me and MHMHJ, I guess. Yeah. I think. Look up my cocky over Marvin yet. Yeah. I kind of want to, but I was on Heath. I was on dynasty with Heath about a month, a month and a half ago. And I said, it might be time to start having the conversation for BTJ one.

And I was like, Whoa, like people going crazy, like over neighbors. Um, I'm close from that standpoint. I mean, there's, here's the thing with BTJ. When I watched him at LSU, I was like, he has all the tools to be an elite level, I've got an Azure Jones S wide receiver, right? He has the frame and the speed and the movement skills. They were just a very kind of incomplete player at LSU. He ran of the small variety routes.

His route tree was small and he's kind of picked up everything insanely fast at the NFL level, faster than any of these players. I'm not saying neighbors is capped, but neighbors, and he's not at all, but neighbors was already the player that he's that he's been so far in the NFL. BJJ is one of those guys that you see hit the NFL and it's like, wow, he's actually somehow better at the NFL level than the college level. And when you see those types of guys, I feel like they always end up being potential hall famers. And I really think that is his ceiling in the end. Oh yeah. He had one game without neighbors at LSU and they target him like 13 times.

Yeah. Like a 40% target share. He really, that was like his only opportunity to do it, but he can do all the wide receiver one stuff in my opinion. So the Acer stat is the BTJ hurt his chest. And then there were two games after that. I watched every route. He clearly did not look like himself.

They were basically using him as a decoy. If you take those two games out, his yard per hour run rate this year is 2.55, which is higher than the Jerry Judy number that I gave you earlier, higher than Jamar Chase's rate this year. It would be top three in the entire NFL. It would be one of the best rookie rates of all time.

Despite having Matt Jones for a good portion of it. Yeah. I don't really like when people have better Acer stats than I have. Well, then you came to the wrong place. You just got these stats. Dan is the guy, comment from the chat, Dan is the guy with an acoustic guitar at a party.

Wrong, Bill's Mafia. What'd you say, Adam? Something missing from your life. You really need to learn how to play guitar. Yeah, I was gonna say wrong, Bill's Mafia. I'm the guy who wishes he was the acoustic guy. No, I don't wanna be like that. I'm the guy with the acoustic guitar at the party.

All right, almost, we got some more? We're very close. So, I don't think it's the guitar, the party. Um, all right. Uh, almost we got some more. We're very close to Britain. Strange is one to point out 12 targets in this game. 84% route rates. This guy was picked in round two last year. So second year tight end was around to pick in the real NFL draft. Um, 12 targets is a ton. Uh, he had a really high first retarget rate as well. This wasn't just dump offs. Um, so he's, I mean, he's like high on the priority list if he didn't get him this week. Xavier worthy had 11 targets would be 12. I'm still tilting about that call because it definitely needed definitely needed the

Mahomes touchdown. Worthy has played better lately. He's he's shown flashes the past couple of weeks. His route running has looked more refined. The timing is better. And he just looks confident. He's making people miss. Uh, so that I, I'm going to have to start him in a, in a league cause I lost Jaylen Wildo and David Montgomery and Patrick Mahomes. Um, so, uh, we'll see, I think they'll probably scheme things up to him with, um, Mahomes down to just like, try to get some catch and run stuff.

Um, his route rate was the highest it's been and everything is, everything, all the boxes are checked. It's, we just have to get him to actually play well. We'll see. Didn't matter because Chargers only ran the ball 11 times, but Kimana Vidal logged a 67% snap rate. Gus Hedberg didn't get hurt or anything. You didn't see anything on that, did you?

No, I was just gonna bring that up. He played a lot. I think a lot of that was game script, but that's definitely like, yeah, he played 21 more snaps than Gus this week. Last week he played six more snaps than Gus Edwards. And two more things here to some veteran notes. Terry McLaurin, Terry McLaurin got lined up on the right side more than in any game

this year. So his left wide, or a touchdown from the right. Yeah, that's yeah, he's been like, I, he could have had three a touchdown from the right. Yeah, that's yeah, he's been like I He could have had three touchdowns from the right. He had a couple with they were like clear Just like just this close and didn't quite get him He's been at 70% or higher on the left all year. And then this year it was at 58% or this week It was a 58% on the left. He's been more productive when he's been outside at the left spot We've talked about I think it was Nate Tice brought up the chain Daniels kind of struggles to make his progressions and get to that left spot and make throws to his left when he's been outside of the left spot. We've talked about, I think it was Nate Tice brought up that Jane Daniels kind of struggles

to make his progressions and get to that left spot and make throws to his left when he's like moving to the left. It's possible that like maybe Cliff Kingsbury has got some wrinkles here that he's instituting as we close to the playoffs. He used them in pre-snap motion more than we've seen in any of the other games. So keep an eye on this. We'll see. That would be great for Tarek McLaurin.

The last note is Mike Evans continues to dominate. So I brought up, there were two guys I highlighted when their receiver teammate went down. Their per route data rates without that receiver, and it was Debo Samuel Mike Evans. And Debo's has been a huge miss. I'm so sorry about that. He clearly doesn't look like himself.

He's not been anything close to the receiver that we had seen previously with Ayuk off the field. Evans has actually been better than the per-route data indicated without Chris Godwin on the field. Since Godwin has went down four games, Evans has a 31% target per-route run rate and is averaging almost four yards per out run. 31% with an average depth of target of 12 yards

is Looney tunes. And so like he's legitimately like, I've been trying to not like bake it into my projections too much. But at this point, if I it's four games, this is like the wide receiver one overall in fantasy kind of rates. It's really crazy. And then obviously they're chasing the one K. He only needs 83 yards per game. I think that's right.

I lost it. 84 or five. Yeah, yeah. We did this yesterday actually. I think he's going to get it for sure. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, for sure.

He's averaged over a hundred yards per game since returning. Basically makes him one of the most like foolproof players for the rest of the fantasy playoff. It's funny you say that though, but two of his last four games have been duds and two of his last four games have been monster games. He had a huge game at Carolina. He had a huge game yesterday at the Chargers as Mike Evans were talking about, but he struggled

against the Giants five catches for six. The Giants was his first game back. I shouldn't say struggled. He didn't have a great game at the Giants five for 68 and then Raiders two weeks ago, four for 69 on five targets because his targets have been six, 12, five, 11. But bottom line is Mike Evans is in your lineup. Absolute must start, clearly, and you know. Hopefully.

Yeah, 11 points is a floor, that's where we're at. That's like basically any wide receiver one, that's their floor. Yeah. All right, so Dan, if you were gonna learn the guitar, what would the first song you'd wanna learn be? Great question. This is a great question.

Jacob, same question to you. I think for me, it would probably be Brown Eyed Women. Bye. You talking about the song Brown Eyed Girl? Brown Eyed Women. I don't know what it's called. Please tell me it's Brown Eyed Women. You my Brown Eyed Girl. Are you talking about you my brown eyed girl?

No, now you're getting me to, no, of course that's what it's called. Brown Eyed Women. You can think of it for a second. By the Grateful Dead. Oh, I don't know. Oh, nice. I've got nothing for you, sorry.

That riff is so fun. I would love to hear that. I would love to be able to play that riff, that opening riff. Let me listen to it, see. I'll try to learn it. You've never heard this song? I'll try to learn it today.

No, I'm not a grateful dead guy. Do I look like a grateful dead guy? Yeah, you could easily be. Anyone could be a grateful dead guy. They're the best band ever. They are legitimately the best band ever. Ooh, that's a nasty little, it's more like a solo, not a riff at the beginning there. I don't know the difference. I'm not a guitar guy.

No, I mean, it mean, it's a riff. Yeah, I don't know. A riff is like a little bit more repetitive. And I could have told you to play like- He's just jamming. He's just jamming. He's just soloing basically. All right, let's take a break

and come back to our four big topics and some screenshots. Wait till you see these Tyree Kill screenshots, folks, of how open he was. We'll be right back after this on Fantasy Football Today. All right. We're getting crushed in the chat right now. Oh yeah, okay, so I just, most famous guitar riffs, like Smoke on the Water.

Bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. How about, no, how about the Seven Nation Army? That's gotta be up there. Yeah, that's bass though. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. True. Yeah, yeah, yeah, sweet child of mine. That's a riff.

You know how it's like kind of repetitive? Like in the Grateful Dead song, he's just soloing basically. Someone said if you could do any My Morning Jacket song, what would it be? It would 100% be trying to learn how to play Lay Low. Lay Low, okay. That's Eric Clapton. Lay Low, okay, that's Eric Clapton.

No, that's Layla. All right, first topic is from Katie. She says, what players can we trust for next week after bad fantasy days in week 15? She mentioned Tyrone Tracy, Alvin Kamara, Cooper Cup. Gonna skip Kamara right now because he's got the groin injury. And quite frankly, like he was having such a miserable game

other than a catch on a trick play that I don't really trust him. So yeah, I get the schedule up. Sorry, I forgot his matchup to he's got the Packers on Monday night. Anyway, who are we going back to that struggled in week 15 guys? I would love to go back to Tracy. I've been really curious to hear you guys thoughts on this. Why did Singletary get the goal line look? I wouldn't go back to Tracy. So Singletary not only got the goal line look, he got the second time they went to the red zone,

he got the goal line series there as well. I think part of it is just the fact that Tracy has had his fumbles this year and they will trust Singletary inside the red zone from a ball protection standpoint. So I have a question. I was watching the game with some people and I kind of missed it. I was, you know, whatever with some colleagues, not like friends.

And someone had said that they thought that Tracy had dropped a pass and basically got temporarily benched and scolded for it. And that was when Singletary went in. Did that happen? He did drop a pass, but the touchdown was before that, I think. Okay. Yeah. I don't know why that happened.

I would be okay with Tyrone Tracy. You know, Dan and I lost David Montgomery. Yeah. You know, so I lost Camara in a league. I would have to consider Tracy over someone like Ramandre Stevenson, who just really seems to be pretty capped unless he somehow scores. They have the bills. They're going to get blown out.

I don't want to trust him in a bad game script. So I think Tracy against the Falcons could be okay. Let's call him somewhere between RB 24 and 30. I'm going to guess he'll be in the rankings. Cooper cup. I'm definitely going back to like just bad game for Stafford cup is hard to sit. Like I would start him over Malik neighbors, even against the Falcons. I don't know how you guys feel about that. Falcons are an amazing matchup, but I would just trust cup who's had more good games lately at the jets who are not a matchup that scare me at all.

Hmm. Yeah, that's fair. Um, Joann Jennings is somebody I would bring up. He had like his second worst game of the whole year, even when he was playing the limited role. So I don't worry about that. All the underlying stuff looks good still. Bad weather and I first have to. The good question is Purdy, right? Cause I'm gonna have to choose between Purdy and Knicks.

Purdy getting the Dolphins on the road. Knicks Thursday against the Chargers. I feel like I'm a bit of an apologist, no question for the 49ers, but how good were they two weeks ago once the Bears, right? Invincible. And then they had this first half in the rain against the Rams, which was terrible. Second half, I can't really give you a good excuse. Offensive lines, obviously struggling. It's beat up Right now if you had if I had to pick I'd probably go Brock Purdy over Bo Nicks But I I just feel like the 49ers can bounce back. I think a Rendo can be well Dolphins run defense is legit, but I think I think to count with it Niners can really bounce back next week

Anyone feeling that I'm not really feeling that no Yeah, I'm a Niners apologist. Maybe I'm going too far because the offensive line injuries are a big deal. See the Dolphins are favored in this game early line, but one and a half points hosting the 40. I will say this you had to take earlier that the seven nation army riff is is bass and I was kind of in my head like now is that really bass? I don't kind of think it is and I don't think it is.

And now finally someone in the chat was like, Seven Nation Army is guitar. So, just a random bad take by you. I don't really like that song at all actually. They hate that song. Who hates that song? Me, I hate that song. Oh, you hate that song.

Okay, now that you were wrong about it, you hate that song. No, I mean, I do. To be fair, it was just one person in the chat. My old roommate used to play that on bass, I don't know. Oh wow, maybe I'm a couple. I'm gonna look up a YouTube video to see if I can find this.

All right, who else are you guys turning back to in week 16 after a bad week 15? Like, must start guys. I don't know, Jacob, you got me. Not Stafford. Who, Stafford? Yeah. Yeah. I think I think you can go back to him. What about Cup? Yeah. I already said Cup. How about um how about uh Marvin Harrison Jr.

There's some signs. I'm sick of it. I'm sick of Harrison Jr. We're all sick of Harrison Jr. I'm sick of Kyler Murray who was supposed to be in four of my fantasy matches, supposed to help me win. Did horrible. But there are some signs of them getting a little bit of the timing down better on those out routes, those out breaking routes. But no, I don't think we're there yet. I think-

Chuba Hubbard. Chuba's a good one. Bryan Robinson. It appears that Bryan Robinson, I don't know. I mean, against the Eagles, not that the Eagles run evens is so weird, but they might be throwing more than we expect. It appears to be a guitar, not a bass guitar. So I apologize for that horrible take. Okay.

That, you know, and I, one thing I wanted to bring up about Marvin Harrison Jr. is one, he has a great matchup against Carolina next week on the road Carolina gets destroyed by number one receivers regularly, but also Christian Gonzalez really Like just one just owned Marvin Harrison jr. First pass attempt of the game He beat Gonzalez just kind of cutting across the middle over the middle and got a 23 yard gain out of it But after that, Gonzalez, whenever he was on him, played him really well, including knocking a ball away from him in the end zone, two end zone targets. So that that's troubling. Like that Gonzalez

really got the better of him just from a long term standpoint, but he has six end zone targets in his last three games. He has at least one red zone target in five straight games. That gives me faith in Harrison as like a high upside number three receiver, not say he's a must start, but I think he's got some upside because they're trying to get him in the end zone. All right, next question is sort of related. It's from Texas Bruin 67. He says, can Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert

be trusted in the fantasy playoffs? So Murray this week is at Carolina and Justin Herbert be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. So Murray this week is at Carolina and Justin Herbert gets Denver on Thursday without maybe without Patrick Sertan. He already faced them without Sertan, although the first time Riley Moss was healthy and he scored 15.7 fantasy points. But do you guys trust Kyler or Herbert this week,

this upcoming week? No, I don't. Yeah, I don't trust it, but I would probably go back to Kyler again. I know, but there is just a ton of upside. I thought that about this matchup this week. Well, Connor had two rushing touchdowns, you know, including one from the goal line they try to get.

So how many points he only scored 9.1. So really, there's no excuse. Like even if he had scored one of those touchdowns instead of Connor, Kyler Murray, it still would have been a bad game. But Kyler's not running that much. And this the issue with both of these guys. Herbert is obviously playing hurt and can't really run. So I don't really want to start him. I think that pass rush is going to be all over him. I just I don't trust him at all. And Kyler, I do think you I think he's not the worst. I feel like he's gonna end up being a top 15 quarterback this week in the rank.

I would go tie Kyla over her. But I think the issue with Herbert is what you mentioned, not only just the injury, just like you see that Chargers defense taking a step back, and you would think that's a good thing from a script standpoint. But part of why the Chargers have been able to be efficient through the air is off of play action and off of the game script they've had. So I actually don't think it's a good thing as often as set up for them to play from behind. Uh, so somebody said Anthony Richardson against Tennessee or Justin Herbert against the Broncos? I'm worried about Anthony Richardson, man.

Things really fell apart after that play with Jonathan Taylor. Yeah. It was like the momentum was just completely sucked out of them and they couldn't do anything after that. Um, and I don't know when he gets rolling downhill, it gets out of control fast. Yeah. Yeah. And I think that, but, but he's, he's so, I think I'd go with

Richardson over her, but there's just like, which is bad, but it's like, there's like Herbert's path to points at this point. Now these hurt and he's going to get you a zero from rushing standpoint is all just passing touchdowns. At least Richardson can, and that's four points and I'm talking four point passing TD League. So like Richardson can get you that back rushing I think in a game like at least that one touchdown passing. Someone says why is Justin Herbert, no that's not it, why is Justin Herbert such a bum sad face? He's not a bum. Nah he made some really great throws in this game. But then he had a horrible interception when he was under pressure. And I think that just goes back to him

not being able to get away from pressure, which is making him very hard to trust. He's really hurt playing. Yeah. All right, third big topic is about the Dolphins. They are popular on this show. And it's from Fat Miami One. And he says, I wanna hear hear about how much Tuas stinks

and how coach Mike needs to go. And that's kind of- These topics are not fun. We could have just talked about Brian Thomas Jr. the whole podcast. It is an interesting topic if we think they might fire Mike McDaniel. Yeah.

I don't think there is any sign of them firing Mike McDaniel. I mean, they really can't be a good team. They cannot be a good team. It's year after year. We all watched this game this morning on tape because we knew we were gonna talk about this one. This offense is so out of sync right now.

I think a lot of two is, I guess shortcomings as a quarterback, I've been exposed during this run. But he's been on fire, that's the thing. He was like the number one quarterback or number two quarterback in his previous four games. He's playing great. I wouldn't describe what I've seen as playing great.

But I think just playing safe. I mean, it was working to an extent from a fantasy standpoint and they're moving the ball. But it's not what we saw when they were just that offense clicking with Mike McDaniel. I think he needs to retool it this off season. They need to make investments on the offense. Well, they need to throw the ball down the field. This is ridiculous. You know, the stat that really... Okay. I read the Miami Herald recap of this game and it was basically saying Tua was under pressure the whole time. He's got two backup offensive tackles in there. He wasn't at all. He wasn't under pressure the whole, like he was at points,

but actually the pressure rate was pretty low. It's just he had his lowest A-dot of the year when he was not under pressure. If you just like sort his game log of under pressure, no, he threw the ball two and a half yards downfield or something like that when he wasn't under pressure So let's go ahead and I want to show you two screenshots here So this is the second one in the game. There's Tyree kill getting wide open for an easy touchdown that would have been about 16 yards out or something or 20 yards, I don't know and Two has already checked down and there's really no pressure there. If he just waits another half second, he's got a touchdown, I think, to Tyree Kill.

Now, there was a holding on the play, so it wouldn't have counted. But he didn't make the throw to a guy who just beat, like Tyree Kill against a linebacker, and you don't even wait for that play to develop. So Tua just got the ball out too quickly. Let's show the other one here. This is him against Stingley.

He comes in, he goes back out, he leaves Stingley and the safety in the dust. Tyre kill is wide open and Tua still has the ball and a clean pocket. And who does this pass go to? Wyatt goes to Devon Achan, two yards away from him. So I think Tua played an awful game. Did not look to... It's possible because Teron Armstead was out and his right tackle's been out that he just didn't want to, that he just didn't have confidence in it maybe. He was also hobbling at one point in the game, remember on that interception. So for whatever reason, he just, he checks down a lot, but this was an extreme version of super safe Tuatangavai Loa and he

missed a couple of touchdown opportunities to Tyreek Hill. One of them would have been called back, but still I thought this was the, you know, an awful game for Tua. Usually it works okay because he throws over 40 times a game. But how about your thoughts for week 15 against week 16 against the 49ers based on this performance? Yeah, I'm not pretty. I'm not, I'm not personally excited about excited about I like that this one's in Miami, correct?

Yes. I like that we're going to get the weather for that we need for passing but no waddle most likely in this game I would assume left with the need and come back. Just take some explosive instead of the offense. You've just did a great job of showing that right now I mean, from their time together to and Tyreke are clearly on the front, uh, having their worst rapport that we've seen in their career. I don't know what's going on there. So I'm not excited about it. On throws of 10 or more area yards to was two for

nine with a 33% off target rate and three interceptions. Yeah. Two for nine. At least you could count the interceptions. He was five for nine on those. They were caught. Yeah, he just, you know what? I always say this, right? You don't want to judge somebody at his absolute worst. This was the worst game Tua had played maybe all year. Certainly recently. He was so bad in this game. He's capable of doing better than this. So if I had asked you Cooper to what's with me today to his own by Loa against the Niners or Kyler Murray against the Panthers next week. Murray Murray easy for me. Help me understand why Mike McDaniel keeps calling empty sets where all the guys just

run a hitch. I don't know. I feel like there are a football thing I run a hitch. I don't know. I feel like every time- Is there a football thing I'm missing here? Like- I'll tell you, so here's what it is. If that's the case, and we've seen this,

I've seen this so much in my fan, and as a giant, Jason Garrett got to this point, even Brian Dable got to this point at one point. When that starts happening, it's mostly in my mind at least because the coach doesn't trust his offensive pass protection. And because of that, he wants to run spacing routes based on timing

that are all hitches that break back to the quarterback. So you just get the ball out quick. Yeah. So I think he just doesn't trust his offensive line right now. All right, but it could be that he doesn't trust to honestly to operate those deeper concepts. I don't know. All right. Our last topic comes from NFL life. At what point do we ignore GameScript and just play our best players

like Lamar Jackson and Devontae Smith? Okay, no one told you to sit Lamar Jackson. I promise you, I know that people were worried about, oh, they're gonna get such a big lead. But I said, every time they've blown out an opponent, just going into the game, he's had a big game. And he was ranked second for Jamie, fourth for Dave and first for Heath. So while everybody was too low on him, because Jared Goff scored 100 million points, no one said Sid Lamar Jackson, but it's a fair question.

You know, studs, game script, all that. Jacob, what's your take on that? How much do you factor in game script? Well, with quarterbacks, like it's important's important to just remember how you get a big league is scoring points. And I guess that could come in other ways, but often that's coming from the hands of the quarterback. And so to get to that point where you're winning by 14 or 20 or whatever, you are scoring touchdowns, most likely.

Anytime your team has a high implied total, that is good. That correlates strongly with quarterback scoring. So I rarely shy away from a high implied total just because of the spread when it comes to the quarterback unless it's some team that's very very sensitive which the Ravens are but obviously don't bench Lamar Jackson. But who is the other one that they brought up? Oh Devontae Smith. This is a really good one. I did not want to start Devontae Smith. He had a huge game. They threw 31 times, which is, which would be like the Bills throwing 80 times. Or I don't know, it'd be like a different team

throwing 80 times. But yeah, that this is a good question here, like with Devante Smith and GameScript and all that. Yeah, I don't we're worried about them just blowing them out. And so like you don't want to play them because the target's been low and stuff. So I don't want to say they were worried about game script might not be the right term for this, but just the fact that they were averaging 21 and a half pass attempts per game since they're by, I had a feeling they'd throw more

because of all the AJ Brown stuff, but he's been tough to trust to begin with. So yeah, so with Devontae Smith Iontae Smith, I was talking about here. I was surprised by this game. But I think if you had told me they're going to throw 30 times and Devontae Smith is playing and Dallas Goddard isn't, that's usually a recipe for stardom for stardom and start him for for Devontae Smith. So that's a tricky one here.

I don't know if you have anything to add But okay, so who's a so who's a player where that we look at game script we look at it with Ramon Rangers Yeah, like this this week I've been Mark Andrews because typically when they do play in a game where they get a big lead He doesn't play as much because they don't like him as much on those jumbo sets They don't have him into block and run block and stuff like that as often. Um, and it's the same thing that I brought up with them are that we're like, you know, if they're going to build a big lead that's coming through touchdowns.

And so he could get that cause he's been the one scoring so many touchdowns and you got one this week, but yeah, if you wouldn't have gotten that touchdown, you would have been three points, four points or whatever. Um, anybody else who's super sensitive to it? So yeah, but not superstars like Ramon Stevenson, like, Tyrone Tracy, Rico Dowdle is the fact that they've been competitive and winning games lately is huge. If they have a matchup, where, where the Cowboys so they're facing like this is

tough. They're facing Tampa Bay at home, I think it'll be a close enough game Sunday night at home, where I'm going to trust Rico Dowdle. But if they fall behind, it's gonna be bad at home. I think it'll be a close enough game Sunday night at home where I'm gonna trust Rico Doudel But if they fall behind it's gonna be bad for him, I think Mm-hmm Yeah, Ramon tre Stevenson's another one Yeah, I don't really know Like Jonathan Taylor, oh yeah

Oh for sure that's what I I was really low on him this week because the Broncos have a great run defense. He never catches passes and he's already had like three bad games in his last five or something like that in full PPR. I was wrong about him. I know it didn't turn out to be that way because he fumbled at the goal line, but that was one where should I have just trusted the talent of Jonathan Taylor? I'm going to say, I'm going to say no, honestly, I think I think I had the right logic there. Just didn't work out. I think James Cook is maybe a name to bring up. Like we've seen when they get into high pace shootouts and stuff like that, he can get phased out. Um, I was similar to Taylor. I was kind of low on him this week because I was a little worried, like what if the lines build a big

lead? Like we saw the week prior But yeah, he's he's really good that touch that second touch. I'm running was so freaking cool He might be a better example of like you just you just roll with them You just trust them unless you have an option do you think is clearly better and the last one? I'll say this will be the toughest one for me this week. It will be Jared golf Who's obviously playing at an unbelievable level? But his game script is going to be a lot different against the Bears next week. Maybe then it was against it's in Chicago. Right? First of all, he's been in the world. He's been indoors almost all season. It's in Chicago in December. And can the Bears

offense do anything now? The fact that the Lions defense is as beat up as it is helps. But the last two games, the Packers scored 31 points, I think. And the Bills scored 48 points. It's not going to be that way. I don't know for golf. I actually think this could be a great day. I it could be a very big time move to bench Jared Goff for the fancy semifinals. You might be right.

The good news for me is I'd be benching him for Jalen Hurts. That's not really benching him. But yeah, I mean, so what I would say to this question, I like this. If you're thinking about a player like Goff in his game script, and you can apply it to Jalen Hurts last week where we didn't really love him because of the matchup and all that,

you better be benching for someone really good. You don't bench him for like Jameis Winston in a good matchup, for someone you think can be good. It's gotta be someone that is truly, has a chance to be absolutely great and has a high floor also. You don't wanna be too risky or too cute with it. Najee Harris is another guy

who's been very game script sensitive. Which I thought would benefit Jaylen Warren, but this week they're like, no, we're gonna get Cordero Patterson involved to get him in there on passing downs. You guys going to start, last question for you, you going to start Lamar Jackson against Pittsburgh this week? Yeah. Yeah.

Has he ever had a good game against Pittsburgh? I don't think I would never bench Lamar Jackson in the semifinals. Saturday at home against Pittsburgh. You know what? I wouldn't either. But if I were playing against Lamar Jackson, this would be a good week for me to be happy with the matchup. Yeah, this would be a good week for me to be a lot of people said that about playing myself included, by the way, and I lost two matchups because of it about playing Jaylen hurts this week. And I was playing at Jaylen hurts this week and he scored what 30 points? 31 ish. Yeah. All right. Someone

notorious Mongolian gerbil is benching Lamar Jackson for Sam Darnold next week. Sam Darnold at Seattle, Lamar Jackson home against Pittsburgh. I support it. I support it. Oh, I do not support it. I do not support that. I don't support it in four point for passing touchdown league.

It's not a chance. In six point. One thing too to remember about Lamar, like he is in my mind at least thinking somewhat about the MVP race. I think the stats are somewhat meaningful to him. His stats are so much better than Josh. Yeah.

But people are already making the case for Alan based on the wins that they've had. People have already decided. Yeah. It's like, it's not even, no one's even making cases anymore. It's game set match for Josh Allen. Yeah. So how do you change that? You go up for another five touchdowns.

Adam retract your statement. Do not bench Lamar Jackson for Sam Darnold on the road against Seattle. Yeah. No. Sam Darnold has one game where he threw five touchdowns. Other than that, he doesn't have a single game over 25 points.

And that's why I mentioned at Seattle, bad weather, potential for Sam D Howell to play. Bad weather. It's not like Lamar Lamar to go for games. Or any any game you have, you can't leave that on your bench. Like maybe you get right in Darnell. That scores him by four or something.

But like that's a fair point. I just said I support it. I didn't mean that I would actually do it, but I support it. I'm okay with it because Lamar Jackson has awful history against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's unbelievable. And if TJ Watt doesn't play, then it's not even a question. I'm going with Lamar Jackson. It doesn't matter if he plays or doesn't. Ride or die with your studs.

No, I don't agree with that. And honestly, Sam Darnold has been a borderline stud this year. This is what I'm talking about. Sam Darnold deserves that a borderline stud this year. This is what I'm talking about. Sam Darnold deserves that. He has had the best game this year against the Bears. I forget this stat. He has the best game in the last seven weeks against the Cardinals. And there was one other team

that was really good against quarterbacks. And Sam Darnold killed them. He's been the best against tough matchups. So he deserves a lot of credit. He's been really good this year. So I'm just st throwing that out there. That's great. I need a week to think about this.

All right, everybody. Thanks so much for watching and listening. And we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today with The Wavy Line.