Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Chubb, Lawrence, Tua (12/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 12, 2022

Recapping Dolphins-Chargers (2:40) and discussing what's so concerning about the Dolphins offense and if you can trust anyone other than Tyreek Hill. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert didn't have a huge Fan...tasy game, but are we encouraged going forward? ... News and notes (11:46), a fun Twitter poll about an important Fantasy matchup (14:30), advanced stats from Jacob (17:35) on Deshaun Watson, Ja'Marr Chase and more, Dan's game film review (22:55) of J.K. Dobbins, and the Fantasy Cops make an appearance (27:30)! ... Four big topics: Struggling running backs (33:00) like Travis Etienne and Nick Chubb; Jerry Jeudy (40:40); the Jaguars passing game (43:50); trusting the Saints in the Fantasy playoffs (50:00) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:43 No, I can. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Going to be on the box for you today, everybody, talking about the Chargers and the Dolphins. What did we see from Tua Tonga-Vailoa?
Starting point is 00:02:06 What didn't we see from Tua and from Jalen Waddell in particular? Can you trust Nick Chubb and Travis Etienne in your playoffs? Can you trust Jerry Judy in your fantasy playoffs? So if you're asking Jacob Gibbs, I know the answer is going to be yes. We will ask Jacob Gibbs. This is Beyond the Box score, advanced stats from simple people, and we've got four big topics today. And those topics are struggling running backs like Etienne and Chubb, Jerry Judy, as I mentioned,
Starting point is 00:02:27 the Saints with their great schedule, and the Jacksonville Jaguars and the distribution from Trevor Lawrence, who's getting the targets. Did you know that Trevor Lawrence, guys, has thrown the most passes into the end zone this season? Most end zone passes. How about that?
Starting point is 00:02:45 I did not know that. Like Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, I think both have 10 end zone targets this year. That's a lot. Does not surprise me at all. Unfortunately, he's 21st in completion rate on the end zone targets, so not turning a ton of them
Starting point is 00:03:00 into touchdowns. But all right, guys, how was Friendsgiving, Dan? It was great. We had a good time. My guacamole was a hit. I don't make too many things,s, but all right guys, uh, how was friends giving Dan? It was great. We had a good time. My guacamole was a hit. That's I don't make too many things, Adam, but there are a few things that I make and I really do a great job on them from feedback. It's not just my own personal opinion from the feedback I get.
Starting point is 00:03:17 Uh, and so it was so good that when you take, usually when you take a dish to a friend's giving or something of that nature, when you're done with it, if it hasn't all been eaten, the host will like, give it back to you and offer to give it back and and the host did offer to but i said if i leave it here will you eat it and she said oh hell yeah we'll be oh good so that was all i needed to hear left it with the host and that's a great feeling because normally they want to get all the food out of the house it's not that good it's cupcakes and things that nature no no a nice guac with a few added touches one of of my key touches is jalapenos, which a lot of people don't use. Yeah, that would be me.
Starting point is 00:03:47 I think the bigger question is why wasn't it all finished during Friendsgivings, but that's okay. I mean, that's okay. There were a lot of other things. Jacob, one food item if you were going to make would be what? That's tough. I really don't make much food. You didn't strike me as a cook. No, you put me on the spot here and I was not ready. I'm looking up Trevor Lawrence off target rates, man. That's all right. All right. Why don't we get to football then?
Starting point is 00:04:14 Chargers 23, Dolphins 17. The Chargers had the ball for almost 40 minutes. They ran 78 plays. Miami ran 49 plays. And I think you could really see at the end the Dolphins were just out of breath, could not get off the field on defense. All right, so who wants the Dolphins? Raise your hand if you'd like to talk about the Dolphins. Dolphins are fun. All right, Dan, you can take the Dolphins. We'll give the Chargers over to Jacob. What's your takeaways here?
Starting point is 00:04:39 This is three straight games with fewer than 18 points for Tua. One of them was the blowout where he left in the third quarter against the Texans, but it's two stinkers in a row against the Niners and the Chargers. What do you think about this offense in general? It's just Tyree Kill right now getting it done. Yeah, I think what we saw last night was really interesting from a schematic standpoint. The Chargers basically only ran a combination of three coverages, cover two, cover six, and two, or cover three, or no, cover two, cover six, and two, or cover three, or no, cover two, cover six, and two man, which is just basically man coverage underneath with two safeties over the top.
Starting point is 00:05:10 And every single time I watched the film on it, every single time when the ball was snapped, those linebackers, those second level defenders would drop to incredible depth to get in the middle of those passing lanes. So what I think the Dolphins need to do is find a way, and this shouldn't be too hard because you have Mike McDaniel. He comes from the Shanahan system. Find a way to get back to a little bit of that running game. Find a way to work that running game back in. Find a way to get the defenses so they have to respect the running game to some degree
Starting point is 00:05:35 right now, whether that be with Wilson who got hurt or Mostert, whatever it may be. Because right now, teams are going to look at that blueprint the Chargers put out there, and they're going to do the same thing. They're going to drop those linebackers to depth. They're going to play with two men over the top. They're going to play a lot of cover six. They're going to do different things to get different second and third level defenders in those passing lanes.
Starting point is 00:05:54 And right now, it's not like what you're seeing is not working for the Dolphins. They need to figure out something different. And I think a big part of that would be kind of, I know people hate to hear it, but establishing the run a little bit more. I completely agree. I thought they were very stubborn last night. It just clearly wasn't working. And you say the blueprint that the Chargers established, but I think you can even go back a week earlier.
Starting point is 00:06:15 This is just, I'm going to read this directly from the Miami Herald. While the 49ers used their rangy linebackers to minimize passing windows into zone coverage. That's basically exactly what Dan was talking about. Chargers coach Brandon Staley said Los Angeles called on its cornerbacks to press Miami's wide receivers and disrupt timing. And then Mike McDaniel said it was more about their plan was better than ours, and
Starting point is 00:06:36 they outplayed us in that phase. So yeah, you're facing the worst run defense in football. Run the ball a little bit more. Try some shorter passes. Do something a little bit different. I'm hopeful that they can, but in their last two games, the Dolphins have had the ball a little bit more, try some shorter passes, do something a little bit different. I'm hopeful that they can, but in their last two games, the Dolphins have had the ball for about 20 minutes in each game. They've just gotten their butts kicked. Do we have confidence
Starting point is 00:06:52 that they bounce back against the Buffalo Bills this week? Is there another start? Is there anyone you're starting against the Bills other than Tyreek Hill? No. I will be benching every other Dolphin but Tyreek? Tyreek? Assuming he's healthy. I will be benching every other Dolphin but Tyreek.
Starting point is 00:07:08 I mean, look, I shouldn't say that. If I have, I'm not going to start like Darius Slayton over Jalen Waddle or something like that. Like Jalen Waddle, you probably have to get in your lineup just based on attrition and how your fantasy lineups look. But I'm not going to be excited about starting anyone but Tyreek. How about you, Jacob? Yeah, I think it's, Depending on what happens with Jeff Wilson, you could start Mostert. We've seen pretty good usage for him the last couple weeks.
Starting point is 00:07:31 The result hasn't been there. But yeah, I don't feel good about the offense as a whole. So it's entirely likely that usage will just turn into nothing again. So probably just Tyreek. All right. I'm hoping they can be a little bit better. They did have Teron Armstead last night.
Starting point is 00:08:10 And it's not like the pressure was so overwhelming. Jay just didn't play that well. All right, let's go over to the Chargers now. And Justin Herbert only scored 21 coverage scheme um the average depth of target for the charges was just 5.1 yards and yeah i don't know anytime you ask me to talk about the charges i'm just going to complain about lombardi because i don't i don't i don't understand it like they don't i will say that yeah go ahead i want you to finish and i will make my point because i have a little bit of a counter to that well they don't have great field stretchers, which is something we've talked about. But at the same time, like average depth of target for Keenan Allen is 3.8 yards. He had 14 targets and his average depth of target was still that low. Same thing with Gerald Everett, who was second on the team in targets. Then Austin Eckler is also second on the team in targets.
Starting point is 00:08:38 They each had eight. Everett's average depth of target was 3.8. Like the offense is just flowing through these short yardage options. And it's just, I don't know. Mike Williams played a full role and caught every single target for 116 yards and a touchdown. Is one of the best wide receivers against man coverage over the past three years.
Starting point is 00:08:55 Throw him the ball. It seems like that might work. He was a little limited, though. I think his snaps were down a bit. I mean, he ran 41 routes. He was just behind Josh Palmer for second on the team, 45. Yeah. I mean, how many routes did they run, though?
Starting point is 00:09:09 Like 60? 56 dropbacks. Keenan Allen led the team with 51. So he was a little bit limited. Yeah, slightly. All right. What were you going to say, Dan? So my one counter to that, I've seen this play out so many times over the last decade
Starting point is 00:09:21 with the New York Giants. When you have an offensive line that is that injured and that banged up and you have the guys in that they have and they cannot produce, you kind of sometimes see, and you can, some people use it as an excuse. Others don't. I might be. You can see offensive coordinators really alter what they want to do. When I watch the Chargers, Jacob, what do I see?
Starting point is 00:09:37 I see a lot of play action, move the pocket, right? When you're moving the pocket and you're getting the running back, I'm sorry, the quarterback outside of the pocket on bootlegs and design rollouts, it's really hard to stretch the field. It's really hard to have a high A-dot. The whole point of those plays is to fake the run a role as well. So I do think he's somewhat limited Lombardi. It is frustrating as hell though, because this is not Daniel Jones is Justin Herbert. He has the arm talent to stretch the field. If it was like, if they believed in their offensive line, if they believed in the receivers, I just think last year we saw Lombardi. There weren't this many like complaints about his play calling. I remember the ADOT wasn't insanely low. There was bombs.
Starting point is 00:10:28 They were stretching the field because they trusted their offensive line. They had the best rookie left tackle in the last decade in Rashawn Slater playing for them. And now they don't have that. So I don't know. I just feel a lot of this is just offensive line-based. I think a lot of their struggles are red zone-based. They have, I think, the fifth lowest red zone conversion rate in the NFL. They stink there. And they were three of six last night in the red zone.
Starting point is 00:10:46 That's really bad. They turned the ball over on downs at the two-yard line on their opening trip. The good news is they've gotten to the red zone more than any team other than the Chiefs. So even though they don't convert that many touchdowns, they've still scored, I think, the 15th most touchdowns in the red zone in the NFL. But they could be a great offense if they could get that solved. But I just thought this was the first game of the year where you had basically a full snap share
Starting point is 00:11:08 from both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Josh Palmer and all the stuff for what that's worth. And they played great offensively. They just couldn't finish. They just couldn't finish their drive. So I came away pretty encouraged by it. I know this is kind of a statty show, so I'll tell you that Josh Palmer,
Starting point is 00:11:22 almost all of his production was with Mike Williams off the field. Gave me very little confidence to start him next week, even though it's a good matchup against Tennessee. I think it might just be two guys, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams go and obviously Eckler, but I mean in the, from the wide receiver unit. All right,
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Starting point is 00:13:17 but our sponsors are terrific. All right, news and notes. I got all the quarterback injuries. Kenny Pickett, Tyler Huntley, Russell Wilson, all with concussions. There was some optimism about Huntley playing this week, but you get a concussion, you usually miss a week. That's just sort of how it works. Brock Purdy has an oblique injury,
Starting point is 00:13:37 and I think they'd probably feel good about him playing if it were Sunday. It's more of a toss-up because they have a Thursday game at Seattle. Mike White's good to go. Damian Pierce don't know the severity of the ankle injury yet. Same with Jeff Wilson. Khalil Herbert expected to return at some point this season. He's going to miss one more game in Week 15 then he's eligible to come off in
Starting point is 00:13:55 Week 16. I'm sure you David Montgomery managers want him to come off the IR in Week 18. Let's see. Tyler Boyd, week to week, maybe a couple weeks for him. Nothing yet on Higgins.
Starting point is 00:14:12 Or Debo High ankle sprain. He could miss maybe the rest of the fantasy season. DJ Moore hurt his ankle. I don't know when he did it because he played almost the entire game. I think it was very late. But maybe he hurt it early and then just aggravated it late.
Starting point is 00:14:24 Maybe that was the reason why he had no catches. I don't know. But DJ Moore has an ankle injury. Tyreek Hill ankle. Corey Davis in the concussion protocol. Richie James in the concussion protocol. And Daniel Bellinger has injured ribs. Defensive injuries
Starting point is 00:14:38 to keep an eye on. The Jets superstar defensive tackle, Quinnen Williams. He has a calf injury, I believe. They have a huge game against the Lions coming up this week. That is a huge game. Lions and Jets. Trayvon Walker left in the fourth quarter for the Jaguars.
Starting point is 00:14:54 They're rookie. Steven Nelson, the top cornerback for the Texans, who have had a surprisingly good pass defense this year. He left with an injury. Minnesota linebacker Jordan Hicks, a really good player. At least a really good IDP player because he gets a lot of tackles. He left with a foot injury.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Defensive lineman James Lynch left with a shoulder injury. They had another injury on their offensive line to an offensive tackle. Oh, a Dallas right tackle Terrence Steele is out for the season, unfortunately. So that stinks. Oh, no, no, no. Wait. I'm sorry. Is he out for the season? I thought it was stinks. Oh, no, no, no, wait. I'm sorry. Is he out for the season? I thought it was a season ender.
Starting point is 00:15:27 And they're starting safety, too. They lost both of them? They will be getting Tyron Smith back soon, who's back and practicing. So they'll probably flip over the rookie Tyler Smith to right tackle, I would imagine. All right, we're just seeing now Vita Vea, defensive tackle for the Buccaneers.
Starting point is 00:15:42 He has a calf strain. Jamel Dean, starting cornerback. He has a big toe injury. And linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has a hip injury. So they are really quite beat up, the Buccaneers. And who the heck are they playing this week? They are playing the Bengals. That's not good.
Starting point is 00:16:00 All right, time for some advanced stats from the advanced guy on the show. And then we'll do the film break. Oh, wait, wait, wait, no, wait. I forgot about our Twitter poll. All right, let's take a look. We got a lot at stake today. I got to be honest.
Starting point is 00:16:14 When I woke up and I saw this poll pop in my mentions today, I was a little bit distraught. I was just the rhetoric and the adjective Adam used to describe me. You'll see it for yourself in a moment for those watching on YouTube. But let's throw the poll. OK, first of all, I posted that at about 1230 p.m. I should have said this morning. Yeah, I've been up since I've been up way earlier.
Starting point is 00:16:34 All right. So in our two QB league, a super flex league playoff spot is on the line tonight. Which team will win PPR League six point per passing touchdown? Adam, I, I, Adam Azar am up by 24 points. I have the Andre Hopkins at Dan Schneier.
Starting point is 00:16:51 NFL has Kyler Murray and Ramondre Stevenson who will win Adam or jerk face Dan Schneier. I didn't think that was so bad. Yeah. I thought it was gonna be worse. Yeah. Come on. Jerk.
Starting point is 00:17:02 I mean, Adam is like a PG type of guy. He's not going to get, make it that much force, but jerk face Dan Schneierier what's so jerky about my face well there's a lot of things actually i shouldn't have asked that question no it has nothing to do with your actual face you're just a jerk face you know that's the jerk face i understand but i think honestly the karma will come for you with that kind of you know you will lose this matchup because of what i deserve it because this is oil of olave you've been dogging on the team name all year.
Starting point is 00:17:25 Oh, I have dogged on Oil of Olave. And you get a chance to eliminate me. If I lose... And you know what, Adam? For the first time in my lifetime, I don't know what the reason is. I feel like when I see it now, I'm like, this is something.
Starting point is 00:17:35 This is God telling me something because now I've been watching sports games, whatever it is, live TV, and I've been seeing Olave commercials. I did not even know it was the thing that was... You mean Oil of Olay commercials? Olay, I did not even know it was the thing that you mean. Olai commercials. Olai. I mean, Olai commercials.
Starting point is 00:17:50 Yeah. And I was like, Olai. I know that brand now. I would have never known it. Yeah, it's good. So I'm somehow winning the vote. Remember, I'm up 24 with Hopkins. He has Kyler and Ramond. I would take your team to.
Starting point is 00:18:00 Now, I would take your team. I honestly would have voted for jerkface. I don't think this game's going to have a lot of points. I think it's going to be really low scoring. I guess I'll keep my fingers crossed. I don't think this game's going to have a lot of points. I think it's going to be really low scoring. I guess I'll keep my fingers crossed. We need a big James Conner night today. So if I win, I'm in the playoffs. If Dan wins,
Starting point is 00:18:12 Thomas Schaefer, our producer, is in the playoffs. But am I in no matter what? No, you're out, bro. You're out. This is one of those only leagues that I'm out in. Five and eight or something like that. Yeah. This is a big one. I set my lineup on purpose because Thomas was like, I put extra time into setting. I set my lineup on purpose because Thomas was like, I put extra time into setting my lineup, I should say,
Starting point is 00:18:27 because Thomas was like, listen, man, earlier in the week. Whoa, really? No, that's okay. We've already said that's okay. Bob Schell. No, no, that's all right. We established on previous fantasy podcasts. It's okay, but I didn't know that Schaefer was that kind of guy.
Starting point is 00:18:39 Wow, okay. He's not that kind of guy. That's the smart. He said earlier in the week, make sure you check your lineup because it has major implications. Wow. And I can get in. And obviously when I hear that Thomas can get in
Starting point is 00:18:49 and I can knock Azar out, I have a lot more motivation than I would have otherwise. Wow. Okay. All right, Shaver. All right. Good luck. That's not a bad thing.
Starting point is 00:18:56 You should be able to do that. My team is so much better than everyone's. It's like so much. No, it's not. I mean, I started Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence and I might lose this week. All right. Uh,
Starting point is 00:19:07 so some stats, Jacob, what do you got for us? Yeah. So the first one I want to mention was Jamar chase. Obviously it came with injuries, but like, this was just cool to see him targeted at such a high rate.
Starting point is 00:19:17 This was his, um, by far the highest target per run rate target share that we've ever seen from him. I drew a target on 40% of his routes, which he had never done. And they really funneled targets to him on first down i think it all makes sense like given the injuries that they just like ran everything through him but we've seen them try to do that a couple times in the past this year and it hasn't really worked out um and this
Starting point is 00:19:36 time it did he completely dominated and so like that is just pretty cool because it's been kind of a disjointed season for him um Deshaun Watson played much better this week. His off-target rate was down to 5%. We kind of had fun laughing at some of the bad throws and just the horrible underlying data as well in his first game. But he, I think, yeah, second lowest off-target rate in week 14, and that was with an average depth of target that rose compared to last week. So that's encouraging if you are a Watson owner or if you're on DPJ or Amari Cooper or Njoku.
Starting point is 00:20:11 And on that note, Don Peoples-Jones, 31% target share, 61% air yardage share. We've seen this from him at times this year. As a whole, this year has been much better than last year in terms of ability to draw targets. And there have been times where he's had spike weeks and look like the wide receiver one ahead of amari cooper and this is one of those weeks and so since we only have two weeks with the sean watson at quarterback that's interesting and then the last note is no joke who ran around on 43 of 47 dropbacks which is really elite um stuff for the tight end position he was second on the team with nine targets so if watson's playing better and he's filling this type of role, that's like a top five tight end rest of the way, maybe top three.
Starting point is 00:20:47 Yeah, that's really interesting because, first of all, they're getting their butts kicked lately. They're barely competitive. It's killing Nick Chubb, which we'll talk about. But they're obviously throwing more than what we usually see from Cleveland. I don't know what the case is going to be this week against Baltimore. That feels like a pretty competitive game. Baltimore could be on its third string quarterback,
Starting point is 00:21:05 but I just don't really see a game where Cooper people's Jones and a joke who are all good. I think there's only been one game all year where they've all had 50 or more yards. It's almost always two out of three. And that's going to be a little bit frustrating here. Um, and if they start playing more competitive games,
Starting point is 00:21:22 if Watson keeps getting better, you know, it might, it might be more Nick Chubb and less of all of them. So they are very frustrating. They've got four interesting fantasy options and maybe five if you include Watson. And on a team that wants to be very run heavy, I don't know. I'm hesitant to call Najoku a must-start. He probably is, but he's not one of the must-starts that's going to be good every week. He's not like Dalton Schultz.
Starting point is 00:21:53 He's a must-start that's going to have bad weeks, I think. Even though Schultz also had some bad weeks. Yeah, I was going to say, that's pretty much everyone but Kelsey at this point. Yeah, I guess so. They're playing each other next week, and you could me to start a joku over mark andrews if it's anthony brown at quarterback or whatever you know uh who the hell's their quarterback um the ravens quarterback yeah uh anthony brown if he's their quarterback next week so uh all right uh anything else j Jacob? I'm sure you have. Um, I was going to hit on Travis ETM,
Starting point is 00:22:27 but I saw that you have them in the notes. We'll wait on that. But yeah, just the way these drawn targets is really discouraging. Um, and then one encouraging point, um, and this might just be me being an Elijah Moore truth or just holding on to any possible hope,
Starting point is 00:22:37 but Corey Davis got hurt and Elijah Moore played ahead of Denzel Mims, which is something we've, uh, seen the opposite happen at times this year, but he actually did play quite a bit. He led the team with 10 targets and 104 air yards. Elijah Moore is really good. And if he gets a chance to play, I think that he could be relevant in fantasies. So like if you're somebody who's held onto him or you've got best ball shares or whatever, like at least we finally saw an encouraging data point, which we haven't seen in like two months. Okay. Dan, I'll give
Starting point is 00:23:03 just a few quick snaps. Yeah. Travis etn is 12th in routes run among running backs but he's 26th in targets he is 62nd in target per route run rate and you know usually you could still rely on him for two to three catches he had zero against the titans that was very discouraging uh joe mixon i thought it was great that he was clearly the running back the running downs back and it was a pretty limited role for Samaj P. Ryan, but you would like to see more snap share from Mixon. Sometimes first game back, it's not
Starting point is 00:23:32 quite what it's going to be. If he has another game where he's playing about 60% of the snaps or whatever it was, I think it would be a little bit discouraging for Mixon, but it wasn't like P. Ryan really cut into his work that much. And then this was just weird.
Starting point is 00:23:47 You know, Chris Godwin, his two best games have been his lowest slot percentage games. His three worst games have been the games in which he's had the highest slot percentage. His two touchdowns this year have come with him on the outside of the formation. Mike Evans lined up right next to him in the slot. So I would guess his production is better out wide than in the slot. I have no idea how to predict what his slot rate is going to be from week to week, but the higher it's been, the worse he has been. So let's get Chris Godwin on the outside a little
Starting point is 00:24:20 bit more. Okay, Dan, what do we got from your game film review? So two of the guys, I had a chance to evaluate three guys on tape. Two of the guys are in our big question. Should I save them or should I go for them? Yeah, save them. Okay, so I'll save them. I'll go for the guy who was not in our four big topics of the week.
Starting point is 00:24:36 And that's J.K. Dobbins, who a player who Adam and I had a very different read on. So I know, Adam, you tweeted out you were not very impressed with him. I was incredibly impressed with J.K. Dobbins. So let me just start with a little breakdown of what I liked and I'll get into some specific plays. What I really liked about Dobbins in this game was the vision cuts. Those are back. He does a really good job of setting up the blocks, understanding where the cutback lane is, and then taking it and getting vertical on his long run. That was probably the
Starting point is 00:25:02 least impressive play. I thought from the standpoint of it didn't show off his burst and his trademark breakaway speed. He houses that 10 out of 10 times when he's fully healthy, but my expectation is he can get back to full health. So I'm not focusing on that. What I am focusing on, on his long run is the vision and his just savvy as a runner. He sees the hole and he hits it and gets vertical fast, but something I see a lot of running backs do. There's a safety coming down on him, is just take that, just get vertical and keep going straight. What he does is right immediately after he gets vertical on that run, he takes a wide angle and gets diagonal.
Starting point is 00:25:34 And that gives him the angle on that safety. The safety eventually does come make the play, but it's all the way down the field after a 45-yard gain. And the pursuing defender on the backside of the angle he took, diagonal couldn't catch him. So it was really smart angle, but those weren't his, my favorite runs of him. They ran a ton of pistol, which is when the quarterback is right behind the snap and the shotgun, the running backs, like a yard behind him, instead of lining up to his next to the next time with a ton of different runs, they had inside zone, they had stretch zone, they had duo up, and they had mostly power and gap with pullers.
Starting point is 00:26:05 I just thought he did an excellent job of showing contact balance through contact. Yep. We lost Dan Schneier. That's weird. All right, we'll get him back. Well, I guess I'll just... Come on, Dan. Where'd you go?
Starting point is 00:26:22 I guess I'll just... All right, here we go he's back he's back everybody all right contact balance contact balance through contact point the ability to ski oh the way what i really like about uh dobbins besides his ability to make those vision cuts and to have those like jump cuts that get into the right lanes he does a really good job of staying low and his pad level is always so low there was one run where I have it written in my notes as a pistol run at a power gap with two pullers, the end man, the line of scrimmage, those pullers don't get around him.
Starting point is 00:26:51 He is setting the edge, that defensive player. And what does Dobbins do instead of running into him or running high where you can make the tackle? This would have been a zero or one yard loss for 75% or more of the running backs. I watch on a week to week basis. Dobbins got in between that guy got super, super low with his pad level, and just kind of dove forward for five yards. I thought he did a great job in this game.
Starting point is 00:27:10 The best run, though, for those of you, I want to start bringing up clips in case people do subscribe to the All-22 so they can look at it. If you look at Q4 with 750 left in the fourth quarter, that run there at a pistol, zone run, off-tackle right. He does such a good job of letting the entire defensive line flow with the offensive line on this wide zone and then beautiful vision cut back into the middle for, I think it was like a 13 yard gain. So I thought his vision was great.
Starting point is 00:27:35 I thought his contact balance was great. His ability to run with low pad levels. Great. The jump cuts were great. He doesn't have the breakaway speed that he used to have right now. I'm just banking on, he can get that back as he like plays more and gets healthier i don't know if that's true it might be no he's a full off season of recovery i sent you the quote he said if i were in better shape i would have i would have scored on that play right and he still reached 20 miles
Starting point is 00:27:58 per hour on that play which isn't actually that impressive because i saw a raven's beat writer say it was like the ninth fastest time of any raven this year so he looked really weird he did not look fast on that play like if regardless of what the next gen stats say you could he should have housed that play and he normally does but everything else that was there with dobbins that made me fall in love with him as a prospect out of ohio state is still there and was on film and it was on display i should say on the tape dobbins said he would have scored on his 44 yard gallop if he had been in better shape. This from Raven.
Starting point is 00:28:28 I think it was from Baltimore Ravens.com or the team website. It's still not me all the way yet. And I'm going to continue to get better. Hopefully those 100 yard games will turn into 200 yard games. I'm going to keep getting healthier. And if he does great, I don't disagree. The actually,
Starting point is 00:28:41 the one thing I did notice was yes, they, well, one of the things I noticed was the vision was great. He did a really nice job setting up the blocks and making the cut and finding the yards, and that was very impressive. He just wasn't the explosive J.K. Dobbins of old.
Starting point is 00:28:53 And that I agree with entirely. This wasn't what we were used to from an explosive standpoint. All right, so before we get into our big topics here, there was some music I wanted to play. We got a bonus Fantasy Cops here on this Monday episode of Beyond the Box Score Fantasy Football today.
Starting point is 00:29:11 Alright, Fantasy Cops from Trevor. Dear every Star Wars character, help me, you're our only hope. I'm in a 12-team PPR league where six teams make the playoffs. The top two seeds get a bye. Rules are very clear in our league that a league member must always feel the full lineup This point has been reiterated in multiple texts recently, and all league members were aware of the rule prior to this week's games.
Starting point is 00:29:37 Our second-place team will definitely be taking a loss this week. Our third-place team is only one game behind the second-place team and has the tiebreaker. His opponent, who's out of the playoffs, failed to start a kicker as his was on a bye. He claims that he wanted to mess with the second place player and wait the entire day to add a kicker.
Starting point is 00:29:57 We do not buy this reason and believe he was simply negligent. Well, as you may have guessed, the third place team proceeded to pick up both kickers for Monday night before his opponent could, basically locking up the second-place position and earning the buy. Obviously, some discussions will take place on our end, so this won't happen in the future,
Starting point is 00:30:16 but that doesn't solve our dilemma for this year. Discussion has already taken place that an option would be to have the commissioner remove one of the two kickers and automatically insert him into the negligent manager's lineup. Nothing has been finalized as we hate to punish a team for simply playing the game. I'll be listening.
Starting point is 00:30:32 Hope you can offer some sort of remedy or punishment. All right, so we got a bye on the line here. Second place team loss. Third place team is going to win tonight unless his opponent's kicker scores like nine points. So he picked up both kickers from Monday Night Football because the opponent's kicker scores like nine points so he picked up both kickers for monday night football because the opponent's been very lazy i guess and uh what do we do here guys do we let it stand or do we remove a kicker from the lineup and give it to the
Starting point is 00:30:56 the opponent i guess my first question would be like was there a president set because i would imagine this isn't the first time that's because. Because the rule in place is essentially you have to field a full lineup, which I love. I love that rule. But is it self-policed? Is a commissioner policed? Because if a president has been set in the past where someone forgot to do it and a commissioner moved someone in that lineup, then God bless. Put that kicker in that man's lineup right now or that woman or man's lineup right now and let it go. But if that hasn't happened before and you have actually relied on people to self-release
Starting point is 00:31:25 and they've done a good job of it and this is your first time ever of this happening, now you don't have the president. So now you're like, you're setting the precedent, right? So if you do put that kicker in, you open yourself up to a lot of subjectivity in the future because some people will be like, well, how did you decide which one to put in the lineup, right?
Starting point is 00:31:42 And should you penalize this person for being smart? And he didn't't really do anything wrong he just picked up two kickers because the other guy was lazy so i i think what you decide here is going to kind of decide the future of your league in these situations and i'm not sure where i stand yet i want to hear what you two have to say and then i'll kind of finalize my opinion yeah i'm glad you brought that up i was thinking the same thing because it says rules are very clear in our league that a league member was always field a full lineup and like they texted about and everything. So I would have thought that there was already a rule in place. Right.
Starting point is 00:32:10 And you would just, you know, go by that. I think what they've laid out is about the best that I could come up with off the top in terms of just like, you don't want to penalize him or take anything away. But like, if you do give him,
Starting point is 00:32:21 give the other person the character that he was going to pick up that he said he was going to pick up and like, we have a clear rule in place. You have to do it. I think that makes sense. But yeah, it does set precedents if it hasn't already been set. I think you give him a kicker. I think the rule is, and the league, like the spirit of the league is to always have a complete lineup. If someone went and did something to prevent this manager from having a complete lineup, I think you give them the kicker. I think you might let the third-place manager choose the opponent's kicker
Starting point is 00:32:53 if you want to kind of penalize the opponent, but I think he should have a full lineup, and I think you give him the kicker. I think I agree with that. I just think I can't think of it on the top of my head right now, but there could be some situations down the line where this is brought back up and people are like, no, no, no, you can't do this because remember the time you made me pick somebody
Starting point is 00:33:13 and you put them in somebody's lineup and it's just like it opens up a Pandora's box. I guess so. But hey, don't be so freaking lazy. Pick up a stupid kicker, man. That's on you. You created a lot of problems for this league. The fantasy cops will not have any of this crap anymore. Get it together.
Starting point is 00:33:28 All right, four big topics when we come back on Fantasy Football Today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over Visit amex. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca
Starting point is 00:34:25 and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Welcome back to the show, everybody. All right, we're talking about some struggling running backs. Heath's first. This is not Heath Cummings, a different guy named Heath, believe it or not. Four big topic, and I just said believe it or not,
Starting point is 00:34:44 and that's a Heath thing. Do you bench the big-name running backs in the playoffs that are slumping, Chubb, ETN, etc., for emerging fresh legs like Bam Knight? So, Jacob, I'll give you the first word here. Nick Chubb, I think we should really take this week by week. Nick Chubb
Starting point is 00:35:00 has arguably the best run defense in football right now. Since trading for Roquan Smith, the Ravens are allowing 2.6 yards per carry to running backs in five games. That's insane. But he is Nick Chubb. Travis Etienne is obviously struggling. He gets Dallas this week. They're not great against the run,
Starting point is 00:35:15 but they don't give up a lot of points to the running backs. Do you bench them for a guy like Bam Knight, who's facing the Lions, who's actually been also very good against the run lately? Or, I don't know, Pacheco. Those are the names that come to mind. Deontay Foreman, maybe. I don't know. What do you think?
Starting point is 00:35:31 I think you could consider benching Etienne for Pacheco. I don't know about Bam Knight, just given the way the usage broke down. We did see Michael Carter play more this week and really dominate the passing downs for the Jets. I'm pretty concerned about Etienne. Like you mentioned, he ran 25 routes this week, didn't draw a single target. He's been targeted at such a low rate this year. Um, he's been targeted lower at the Nick Chubb has been
Starting point is 00:35:52 targeted lower than freaking Brian Robinson. Like it's been insane. Um, and his schedule isn't great in terms of run defense coming up here, um, until the fantasy championship against Houston. So the next two spots for ETn i think he's probably going to project as like a outside of the top 20 at running back which is pretty nuts given where we were just a couple weeks ago um for nick chubb the matchup against the ravens is tough and same thing with the commanders in two weeks even the saints is not an ideal matchup but each of these are games that the browns could control the game script a little bit better than we've seen um because like the offenses they're playing are really not inspiring right now. Like even
Starting point is 00:36:29 less inspiring than the Browns of defense. So I think, I think you're probably rolling with Chubb, um, over most of these guys going forward, but I think you could bench ETN. Dan, I know you did some, I think you did some film study on Nick Chubb or the Browns. I'll just say in their five wins, he's averaging 22.2 carries per game and 110 rushing yards per game. In their eight losses, 15 carries per game, 75.3 rushing yards per game. But it goes further than that.
Starting point is 00:36:59 It's not just wins and losses. It's blowout losses. As long as they're competitive, you're getting a decent workload from Nick Chubb. The problem is they just haven't really been that competitive lately. They lost by 13 to Cincinnati, I believe. He had 14 carries.
Starting point is 00:37:14 They lost by 8 to the Bills, but that was an 18-point game in the fourth quarter. He had 14 carries. They got crushed by the Dolphins. He had 11 carries. What do you think about Chubb? Yeah, so I did every snap of Chubb versus Cincy, and I also did every snap of Lawrence this week, so I'm just going to start
Starting point is 00:37:30 with a quick takeaway from ETN. I think it's really interesting to note, watching that film, watching the Jaguars' offense, there is nothing for the running backs in the pass game. There's no involvement in the screen game. They throw their screens to tight ends. There's no involvement, really, in the play-action quick-hitting game. They throw those quick hitters to Evan Ingram or to those like tight ends
Starting point is 00:37:47 leaking. So there's no real, there's no wheel routes. There's really nothing to get these running backs involved in the past game. So I think that is something to really consider right now, especially as we watch that Jags pass game, which we'll talk about in a little bit, evolve into such a heavy hitter. Like right now that pass game is operating at a high level so that they don't need the run game as much. So I agree with Jacob, what he said on ETN. Now, as far as Chubb goes watching the film against Cincy, I just felt like Cincy was fully prepared right now. Teams are playing the Browns. Like they don't have a good quarterback in place. I know it's the Sean Watson. He has a big name, but right now it almost looks like they're playing them. Like it's some backup
Starting point is 00:38:22 quarterback because their classic play the stretch zone, which the Browns have run for years with Nick Chubb, every single time they tried stretch zone against Cincinnati, those Cincinnati defenders were stacked around the line of scrimmage. They didn't lose contain and they flowed everything back to the inside. They tried a lot of misdirection in this game, which really surprised me and takes away touches from Nick Chubb. They gave the ball to hunt on a misdirection with Chubb in the backfield. They kept the ball with Watson one time on a misdirection with Chubb in the backfield. They kept the ball with Watson one time on a misdirection with Chubb in the backfield. They handed it on an end around one time to Nujoku with Chubb in the backfield. Chubb was on the field for every one of those plays,
Starting point is 00:38:53 but he was used as eye candy to kind of get the defense to focus in on him and flow to his direction while they hand it off to someone else. Ultimately, that's not good for his value in general for fantasy because he's not getting the football there. So this was a tough matchup. DJ Reader was back and he played unbelievable. Like when you watch the film of running back, you can watch the D line and O line. And he was like one of the best players on the field, maybe in general in that game.
Starting point is 00:39:15 And so that's a big factor, but you just mentioned it. The matchups aren't getting that much easier. Really? Maybe the game script's getting a little better, maybe, but I don't know if that's even the case right now watching the Bengals offense. Because Watson, I know you said the stats were a little better maybe but i don't know if that's even the case right now watching the bangles offense because watson i know you said the stats were a little better jacob but i was not too impressed with watching watson this game so right now i just feel like it's a bad situation defenses are going to be keying in on the run game taking away the stretch zone which they love to run and so i don't know if they're going to keep using him also like
Starting point is 00:39:42 eye candy on some of those plays and giving the ball to Njoku or Hunt or keeping it with Watson. I don't really know what he is. A 14-touch player, right? Doesn't get much involved in the pass game. I think he'll be more than that as long as they're competitive. If they're competitive, right. And I think they will be against the Ravens and the Saints and the Commanders personally. But they have to run the ball to be competitive at this point, it feels like.
Starting point is 00:40:02 This is unusual for him. In his last five games, he's averaging like 3.8 yards per carry. But that is like a normal running back averaging two yards per carry. I mean, for Nick Chubb, that's surprising. What's
Starting point is 00:40:17 different, though? It's not like he's ever had a good quarterback. So I have faith in him to run the ball well. It's like Derrick Henry, right? I mean, derrick henry all the metrics were terrible for derrick henry going into this game against jacksonville he ran for like 95 or yeah against jacksonville ran for 95 yards in the first quarter right so i don't think it's gonna take much i just think they have to be in the game so he can get his 17 to 22 carries and he'll probably be all right but yeah that's fair i think mostly this was just a bad matchup.
Starting point is 00:40:46 I am concerned about him this week, because the Ravens are ridiculous on defense right now. The Saints and the Commanders, I feel like he can do fine against. Any last thoughts, Jacob? I'm with you. I think the ability's there. We've really never seen Chubb been bottled up before, and he's been in lots of bad offenses.
Starting point is 00:41:03 I think he'll get going, and I think the game scripts are going to be a lot better. I'll be interested to see both those games because I think commanders are playing much better in run defense. I just watched them two weeks ago against the Giants. It's a similar thing to Cincy. They're super sound in their gap technique. We'll see what happens there. Yeah, now if you want to talk about Barkley
Starting point is 00:41:21 as another struggling running back, I'm losing a lot of faith in Saquon Barkley. Oh, yeah. He's averaging 6.2 yards per catch. That's terrible. His yards per carry has also dipped every single week from his average the first eight games before the bye. Every single week it's been below his average.
Starting point is 00:41:38 Wow. Since the bye. And I mentioned this, that, and this is a guy I'm not considering sitting, but Dalvin Cook averaged 1.5 yards per carry against the Lions yesterday, his fewest in any game in which he's had 10 or more carries in his career. He does not look good in that. In my opinion, he does not look good in that blocking scheme. Well, the Lions also have really come on, though, as a run defense.
Starting point is 00:42:00 Yeah, they're playing better. Bam night. All right, Jacob, this one's handpicked for you. Yeah, they're playing better. the spot against the Rams just because I think the Broncos, the Rams are so bad right now, but they played a little bit better this week. But I just, in general, my projections against the Rams go way down for the passing offenses in terms of volume. He's kind of a volume play right now, but he's completely dominating the target share. I think Jerry Judy's really good. I've, you know, obviously we've been talking about that for a long time, but when he's been on the field, so any play that Jerry Judy has been on the field on those any play that jerry judy has been on the field on those plays he has a 26 percent target share and a 36 percent area yardage share both of those would be like top 12 rates
Starting point is 00:42:50 over the course of the full season i think that it's fair that like he might really be that type of a player um and then when you project it with you know the overall offensive environment that drops him down to like top 20-ish wide receiver, which is someone you can trust most weeks, especially in not negative matchups, which is what he has coming up. So I feel pretty good about him. I think I had him ranked 20th this week,
Starting point is 00:43:16 and if I would have known that he was going to play the full lob into the slots, he projected as a top 14 guy against the Chiefs in a game where they're going to be passing a lot. And so that's what you're looking at in the fantasy championship. He played only 18% of his snaps in the
Starting point is 00:43:30 slot this week. They moved him to 15.5%. His previous low in a game, week 13, two games ago he played 47%, but he barely played in that game. His previous low was 56%. He's a slot receiver, but with Cortland Sutton out, he was an outside
Starting point is 00:43:45 receiver almost exclusively. He's been much better when he's outside of the slot, though, in college and in the pros. He's just kind of been pigeonholed into that spot because he's been playing alongside Tim Patrick and Cortland Sutton, you know? But I think he has proven that he can definitely win from the outside. Well, that's
Starting point is 00:44:01 the big question here. I trust Jerry Judy if there's no Cortland Sutton, and even if somebody like Russell Wilson is playing, do I trust Jerry Judy if Brett Rippon is playing, which is probably the case against the Cardinals? And do I trust Jerry Judy if Cortland Sutton's on the field? Because we just haven't seen big production from him all that much, just in a little bit, with Sutton playing. And I, I, I think again, you, you take it week to week, but last yesterday was the absolute best scenario for Judy, right? No Sutton, Russell Wilson finally played well and they placed,
Starting point is 00:44:34 they played the chiefs and they were trailing 27, nothing. It doesn't get any better than that. Uh, so the injuries I think to, to, to his quarterback and his wide receiver are, I think they're a big deal.
Starting point is 00:44:44 Jacob, do you, or do you think they factor in? I don't think Sutton his quarterback and his wide receiver. I think they're a big deal. Jacob, do you? Do you think they factor in? I don't think Sutton actually affects him all that much. They've run 250 routes together this season, which is a decent sample size. And Judy has a 25% target share and a 34% error to share, so pretty close
Starting point is 00:44:58 to the numbers I just gave just when he's been on the field in general. He really hasn't been affected that much in terms of his ability to drop volume when Sutton out in there. But if, if you're going to say like sudden being out there, we'll move him to this slot more and he's less efficient there than that. That's fair.
Starting point is 00:45:11 Yeah. But I think he's still clearly proven to be the number one receiver when sudden's there. All right. This is from J pass catcher distribution for Trevor Lawrence. We have kind of discussed this, but there's actually a lot here. Because they Jones has double digit targets in three of his last four games. We know Travis Etienne is not a big
Starting point is 00:45:32 part of it. I said earlier, Trevor Lawrence has thrown the most passes in the NFL into the end zone, most end zone attempts. Christian Kirk has 10 end zone targets. Zay Jones has 10. That's a lot. Evan Ingram has six. I think we could talk about the pass distribution, guys, but Dan, I think we should talk about the schedule because he's faced... Well, he had a great game against Baltimore. That was really encouraging. But the Chiefs before that, it was a nice matchup.
Starting point is 00:45:59 He was bad. He struggled against the Lions two weeks ago, but they've obviously been a lot better. The Titans were playing without their top cornerback, and they see more passes than almost anyone in football. It's about to get a lot more challenging. Dallas and the Jets in the next two weeks. So what do you think this means for the passing offense
Starting point is 00:46:18 and I guess for the target distribution? Yeah, those matchups aren't great, but I will say this, having watched the tape of Trevor Lawrence this week against Tennessee, that was phenomenal quarterback play. That was elite level quarterback play. And I don't say that. I don't throw that word around a lot. I was interesting most to me is that there wasn't a really, it didn't feel like there was any kind of focus to get the ball to Christian Kirk, a player who earlier in the season, there was a massive focus, even at a good game recently as well. But Zay Jones is the player who keeps popping up for me. They came within inches. I don't know what really what happened. Cause from the all 22
Starting point is 00:47:03 angle Lawrence through about a 45 yard bomb that hit him right in the hands split the safety in the cornerback one of the best throws I've seen all year and it just dropped it. And so there still is a mass involved for Jones. He's probably the one I would feel most confident in outside of Christian Kirk, but they're not going to like target one player or funnel targets through a certain type of player. They're just going to spread the ball around. He's at that he's at that point point right now, Lawrence, where he's as comfortable as he is in the pocket. His pocket manipulation is amazing. His arm talent is filthy and he trusts it. He fit incredible amounts of whole shots in this game. One tight window ball he threw to Evan Ingram where Ingram just ran up the seam and there was literally five yards of space between the linebacker and the safety.
Starting point is 00:47:41 I counted it on my screen and Ingram was stacked right between them. So that was another yard. So basically four yards and he threw the ball between them, hits the tight end right in the stomach it's caught. And so he's just going to take what's there for him. So I don't really trust from, from fantasy standpoint, any of these guys. And I am a little bit worried, like you said about the schedule, because those whole shots won't be there. If he's facing other defenses, think. We'll see what happens, especially the Jets. Dallas is a little depleted, though. In the last two weeks, they've lost a starting corner and a starting safety.
Starting point is 00:48:12 I think it's going to be a matter of can they protect Trevor Lawrence. I want to say this, though, on that note, Adam. There were multiple times in this game, and I have in my notes right now, I'm looking at them with timestamps, where the protection broke down for Lawrence, and he did a phenomenal job of moving around in the pocket, sometimes out of the pocket to rip a ball, sometimes to his left to find Agnew on that third and four.
Starting point is 00:48:33 So I don't think the pressure played a huge role. I mean, I'm sorry. I think he got pressured in this game and did a great job throwing under pressure. That's like Justin Herbert last night, under pressure the entire game. He was able to get away from it. Yeah, you know, I'll bring this up here.
Starting point is 00:48:47 I was not, I guess, didn't have a popular opinion last night on the recap show. I said I'd rather have Trevor Lawrence than Justin Fields in Dynasty. I would definitely rather have Trevor Lawrence than Justin Fields in Dynasty. What do you think, Jacob?
Starting point is 00:49:04 That's really tough. I think Lawrence probably has a better shot of sticking around and being a quarterback for a long time you know so especially if you're like in a super flex league um the added stability there of like potentially having 10 good years from lawrence is really valuable um but man the upside for justin fields if he's able to sustain anything close to what we've seen this year over multiple years like he's a difference maker he's one of the most valuable in super flex he's like one of the most valuable players available at any position um and just in a normal dynasty league he's got top three top five quarterback upside
Starting point is 00:49:33 which i don't know if lawrence necessarily does for fantasy um i think he does eventually we'll see what happens but i mean i what he's what there's a thing that people always love to talk about like oh the weapons, the weapons, everybody. What weapons does Trevor Lawrence have right now? Christian Kirk is like his best weapon. He's a solid player. I don't think he's a wide receiver. One Zay Jones, he's getting career games out of Zay Jones and Evan Ingram.
Starting point is 00:49:55 Like Evan Ingram. I watched for five years on the giants be horrific at football. And he just had a career game with them. Like he's, and it's not like their old lines, very good either cam robinson's an okay left tackle and they don't have and they've sheriff and not much else so i really like what i've seen from lawrence i know what you're saying with fields because of the rushing upside like it's probably a bad take by us adam to want lawrence over fields in dynasty i get that everybody's obsessed with the runner but the better everybody's obsessed with the runner but right first and foremost good reason you got to pass the ball you can't just be a runner you gotta be a passer yeah yeah no find
Starting point is 00:50:29 me it's find me a top five quarterback that's not that's not putting up good passing numbers it just doesn't happen i mean would it be fields i guess no he's not a top five quarterback not on a per game basis is he not no because he had that bad start to the season oh terrible start he's not even close because of that yeah i mean I mean, it's just... Yeah, it's a good point. And I mean, maybe Fields becomes Jalen Hurts. Maybe he becomes Jalen Hurts and has a huge leap. Because Jalen Hurts, I never thought he could become this good of a passer. But he would need the team to get a lot better, right?
Starting point is 00:50:56 Like, Jalen Hurts has the best offensive line in football. He has A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith. The Bears are, like, nowhere close to fielding fields, that kind of team. What was I going to say? I don't think Jacob gave us an answer, Jake. All right, so listen. You've got Justin Fields. I've got Trevor Lawrence. I just sent you a trade offer in Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:51:14 My Lawrence for your fields. Accept or reject? I'm going to keep Fields. I laid out a few different scenarios in which I think you could go either way, depending on the format of the league, what your philosophy is, what you're doing with the team, if you need to swing for more upside of fields,
Starting point is 00:51:28 but just in a vacuum, I'll take fields. All right. All right. Screw you, man. From Baldy beast. Last topic here.
Starting point is 00:51:37 Can you trust the new Orleans saints? Great schedule coming up. Indeed. They do Atlanta. Well, actually I don't know about Cleveland. I don't think Cleveland has that bad of a defense. They have a bad run defense, for sure.
Starting point is 00:51:50 They're pretty good against the pass. Atlanta at Cleveland and then at Philadelphia, which is obviously not an easy game. Can you trust the Saints? In the Saints' last five games, since they destroyed the Raiders, they've been terrible. They're 1-4. They have scored
Starting point is 00:52:05 16 or fewer points in four of those five games. They have not run more than 56 plays in any of them. They've had the ball for 25 minutes and 10 seconds or less in three of them. They've just been awful, but they face the Ravens, Steelers, Rams, Niners, and Bucks. So it is going to get, I guess, a little bit easier. So Dan, do you trust the New Orleans Saints going forward? I do not trust the New Orleans Saints going forward. I understand the schedule is somewhat favorable as we just broke down, but I've watched that offense all year. I might, I'm sticking with my guns on this. I don't, I think losing Sean Payton was the biggest difference that I've seen in that offense. They're just, I know they have some of the same people who worked with him and they understand his system and they're not running a different system, but those games, you know,
Starting point is 00:52:47 those play to play situational play calls that Sean Payton had and the timing, when to call the screen, you know, finding the defense off guard, when you call the screen, things of that nature, it's not there anymore for this offense. So I think they've lost their magic from a scheme and schematic standpoint. And you take away the magic from a schematic standpoint and you take away the magic from a schematic standpoint you take away taryn armstead at left tackle you don't have much left you have alvin camara and what else like where is the talent on that saints team that makes me believe that offense can spark and get going right now a lot of a as well i shouldn't i shouldn't have uh not included him there's two really talented players but not much talent at quarterback not much talent on the offensive line not much talent from us or not much talent on the offensive line, not much talent from a,
Starting point is 00:53:25 or not much success from a schematic standpoint. I don't like it. Jacob. Yeah. I mean, effectively the question is, can you trust Chris Alave or Alvin Kamara? Right.
Starting point is 00:53:34 Like, is there anyone else from the saints offense that we're caring about? Well, Juwan Johnson is an interesting tight end, but I don't trust them as far as I can throw them and I can't throw them. Yeah. So if it's just those two, I think, yes. I mean, a lot of a, since he's become the starter has double digit points in every game, except for one PPR points. Um, and the volume has just consistently been there and these are pretty good matchups coming up. Um, and Camara with
Starting point is 00:54:00 Ingram out, I think we should see his usage be better than it was. Ingram was getting annoyingly involved, and we've got some really good matchups for him. The Cleveland matchup is great for him. It's not as great for Lave necessarily, but I think I trust those two to be people you can plug in, and they do give you upside because they're such talented players as well. They do give you the big play upside. Overall offensive environment, no.
Starting point is 00:54:24 We don't feel good about it, obviously. Yeah, I think Eric McCoy, if they can get him back, their starting center, he's missed the last five games, I believe, and that's when all their struggles started, maybe the last four. That would be big coming out of the bye if they can get him back.
Starting point is 00:54:41 Yeah, I don't know. Unfortunately, they're sticking with Andy Dalton, but this is probably a good week for them. I'm going to be starting Alvin Kamara. Put it this way. I would start Kamara over Barkley. I would start Kamara over ETN. And in a full PPR league,
Starting point is 00:54:53 I'd probably start him over Nick Chubb this week. Yeah. How do you guys feel about that? I think I agree with all. Jerkface Dan, what do you think? Say that again? Sorry. Starting Camara over Barkley, Chubb, and ETN. In PPR.
Starting point is 00:55:11 Camara over Barkley, Chubb, and ETN. Starting over Barkley in that matchup. I think I might start him over all three of those. Just sad to say. Boy, you know, our show must have been so boring today because our chat on youtube they were talking about movies almost the entire time the entire time just talking about i don't think it was boring i think it was a good show so that was very good i don't want to say screw
Starting point is 00:55:36 the chat i love the chat but sometimes it's more fun to talk about movies i understand what about christopher nolan kevin smith the best actor in any which way you can was Clyde. Terry Gilliam is good. I love Guy Ritchie. What are you guys talking about? Clint Eastwood. There was some Tarantino talk earlier.
Starting point is 00:55:52 There was a lot of Titanic talk in the chat today. A lot of Titanic talk. Jon Favreau isn't bad. Like, this is really fun. I think Dan is the one who tweeted that,
Starting point is 00:56:02 or retweeted maybe, that Elf is not funny. Is that you? That what is not funny? Elf? Noweeted maybe that Elf is not funny. Is that you? That what is not funny? Elf? No, I didn't. Definitely did not. Okay.
Starting point is 00:56:09 Do not accuse me of that. I love that movie. Someone from our company did, though, and that's what I kind of like. I think I quote tweeted saying this was a bad take. Oh, you quote tweeted it was a bad take. Who wrote it? Was that Chris? I don't think it was Chris, though.
Starting point is 00:56:22 It was probably Thomas, right? I would think it would be Chris. Thomas has some weird takes weird i agree with thomas some of his takes are i love elf thomas got mad at me for being an ageist yesterday what did he say um i bought a sweater i bought a christmas sweater that says i don't know margo and i thought dave would get the reference and heath wouldn. And I was right about Heath, but Dave did not get it. And Schaefer was the only one who got the well, I don't know Margo
Starting point is 00:56:51 reference. What is it in reference to? Christmas Vacation. I've never seen it. Why does this still surprise you when I said I've never seen it? I've seen like four total movies. They're all like Pulp Fiction, The Godfathers, Goodfellas, Casino.
Starting point is 00:57:07 Oh, man. All right. Well, Christmas Vacation, one of the best Christmas gangster movies. You should definitely watch it. Gangster? Yeah, you'll love it. All right.
Starting point is 00:57:16 Thanks for watching and listening, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire for Fantasy Week 15. Rex Burkhead! All right. See you then.

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