Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Colts and Browns WRs, Bears Offensive Changes, Ravens Outlook (11/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 18, 2024

We recap an amazing Bengals-Chargers game (3:00) and discuss if Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert have become must starts, plus everything else you need to know from this game ... Our thoughts on the MVP race (17:15) and then news and notes (20:10) as we wonder what the Giants offense will look like with Tommy DeVito. Then we've got advanced stats (23:30), snap counts (37:05) and other metrics. Find out what the data says about Christian Watson, Jauan Jennings, Brock Bowers, Jaxon-Smith Njigba, Audric Estime, J.K. Dobbins and more ... Four Big Topics: Can we trust the Colts wide receivers going forward (40:00)? What changes did we see from the Bears offense (43:10)? Will the Browns WRs be reliable (51:15)? Should we be worried about Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense rest of season with a tough schedule (55:15)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports It's time to dominate your fantasy league Here's some combination of Adam Dave Jamie and he Well, hello everybody welcome to the show it is Beyond the Box Corps here on a Monday afternoon. For those of you watching on YouTube, later start time today, but that means more stats for you, advanced stats than ever before. As we will get into a really like a weird James Winston trend that I pick up on. We're going to talk about the Browns wide receivers, the Colts wide receivers, the Ravens offense,

the Giants offense with Tommy DeVito taking over for Daniel Jones and more and more. Oh, what was the other topic that we had? Browns receivers, Colts receivers, oh, the Bears, the Bears offense. What did they do? What did the Bears offense do differently in week 11? They did something at one of the highest rates

in the NFL last week or yesterday, something that something at one of the highest rates in the NFL last week or yesterday, something that they had one of the lowest rates in the NFL going into the week. So that could be an interesting trend, something that helps us for fantasy. Hey, Jacob, what's going on? Not much, how do I sound? I'm having some mic issues every night, good now.

Actually, like as good as you've ever sounded. Yeah, this is the best I've ever sounded. Whatever you did with your mic is now, has now been something you should lock in for the rest of the time. Got a comment here. Oh man, listen man, today. Yeah, what is this?

I've saw this comment too. Are you assuming you're talking about this one? Yeah, I hope. So what is this? I so hope Omar Fattu says, I so hope Dan and Jacob lane to Adam for his insane Josh Allen disrespect. I missed this earlier.

Well, he didn't miss anything. All I said is that I think Lamar Jackson should be the MVP, but we're going to talk about that later. That see that that's what's so frustrating. I said Lamar Jackson should be the MVP. I laid out the case and all of a sudden that's insane. As insane. Josh Allen disrespect. Give me a break. Welcome to the internet, my friend. break. Welcome to the internet, my friend. All right. Chargers 34 bangles, 27. What an awesome game this was. The bangles had the ball for 3408 chargers for 2552. So keep that in mind. The bangles are running so many plays the last three weeks and it is just unlocking their offense. They've run 71 75 and 78 plays in their last three games. They're killing it in time of possession.

And Joe Burrow has scored 35 or more fantasy points in three straight games against the Raiders, the Ravens, and now the Chargers, who had the best defense in football, arguably. And honestly, their defense wasn't that bad. They great for a half or two and a half quarters. But anyway, Dan, you want to start? What's your takeaway from the Chargers and the Bengals?

Yeah, it's funny for me because I had a chance to before the week, before this matchup, because I was really looking forward to it and it did pay off. Break down all the tape of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow this week. I put together cutups that you can find on my Twitter. Just search my name and search their name. Like five minutes each and they were playing what I thought was the

best pure quarterback play of any quarterback this season. I know it sounds ridiculous, but just in the pure quarterback sense. A lot of these quarterbacks offer something else. Lamar Jackson is a playmaker. He makes plays with his feet, but just from standing in the pocket throwing with anticipation and processing defenses These guys were locked in going into this week And that's what it looked like watching them both play Joe bro throws an insane level of anticipation specifically in the deep half We saw that I agree with you. It was less so bad Chargers defense more So who's gonna stop this bangles passing game with T Higgins healthy on the flip side?

Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career without a doubt with T Higgins healthy on the flip side. Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career without a doubt. Um, he's seeing the field completely differently in this system. And I don't really even love Roman so much as just like the impact that harbaugh's had on him and they finally let him go past first in this game the whole first half. There's a ton of play action on first down taking shots. Justin Herbert fitting the ball into tight windows throwing throwing with anticipation as well. Just unbelievable arm talent, too. They're utilizing the seam with Will Disley. That was a great call by Jacob last week that Disley was gonna be a big factor.

And Disley was probably a weak winner for anyone who added him on waiver wire and put him in your tight end slot. I was one of them because I liked the call. And that's something Justin Herbert can do that other quarterbacks don't do. Utilize the seam. It's an area that you need to have anticipation and arm talent to fit it into. So I thought we were watching two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last night. That was what football should look like. In my opinion, I love watching it when the quarterbacks are that good.

Yeah. And I just kept thinking, gosh, imagine if Justin Herbert had Jamar chase on his. Yeah, well, yeah, he's doing this without, but let's not slander lad McConkey. No. So, so look, I think, you know, it's all systems go for the Bengals, right? It's Chase Brown is an absolute stud. Joe Burrow, you're starting every week. Jamar Chase and T Higgins are starting every week. And you know, Mike Kosicki, you're not starting unless one of the wide receivers is out. The Bengals are easy.

I could get into some of the numbers. You know, I thought Jamar Chase with T Higgins on or off the field, he has really like a slightly higher target per route run rate with H on or off the field. He has really like a slightly higher target per route run rate with Higgins off the field, but with him on the field, he is averaging 17.5 yards per target with Higgins off the field, 8.9 yards per target. So probably flukey that it's that big of a gap,

but he's almost double as yards per target. It's just wild. Anyway, so yeah, let's move on to the Chargers. And I guess it is McConkey. Let's start with the receivers, Jacob. And like, this is a great game for Lad McConkey, obviously. And he's having an encouraging season. You've laid out a lot of the numbers.

You really like him. But just from a fantasy perspective, he's still now he's only two games with more than 67 yards, four games with more than 52 yards. He hasn't really been that great for fantasy. Do you think he will be a starter going forward? Yeah, I think you with any discussion about the charges, you have to contextualize it with the way that the games are played out. The average over and under in their games before this game was 40, 40 is so low. So I'm talking about the Vegas projected

combined points between the two teams in each game. The average for the Chargers through 10 weeks was 40 points. In week 11, there was only one game that had a lower projected over under than 40 for reference on how low that is. And over the next month, five weeks, we're going to see a lot of much higher over unders. I think it was 47 or 48 points for the charges in this one. And we see that pan out with like 60 combined points almost between the two teams and all of a sudden the line, McConkey has a ton of volumes. That's all of a sudden this per route data that wasn't amounting to much over 23 drop-backs when you extrapolate that over almost 40 drop backs, it's massive because

he's really, really good. He's really efficient at producing yardage. And yeah, the roll was awesome. It kind of took a while. They were a little bit locked in on Disley early on, but he started locking in on McConkey and it's just like, yeah, there were times, and this is my own bias because I love McConkey where I'm like, he's open. He's wide open.

Like, why are we going to QJ? But yeah, he had a 32% first retarget rate in this game, which tied Quinton Johnson, um, a really encouraging game for Johnson. I felt like from a volume standpoint, he didn't necessarily convert on some of these contested catches, but they kept going back to him. So those two receivers tied for the highest first retarget rate on the team. And in the second half, they each had a 40% first three target rate. So it was truly like completely locked in on those two 80% of Justin Herbert's first three targets in the second half went to QJ or McConkey. So yeah, I think it's like wheels up,

sky's the limit for these guys. Like I had, I was probably too low on Quentin Johnson. I had McConkey ranked ahead of CD lamb this week. And that's basically where I'm at over the next month. Maybe not so much against the cheese, but when they're in these projected shootouts, you're probably looking at them as a top 20 receiver almost every single week. And I'll say this about one more thing about this passing game.

I took flack in the off season, Adam, when I was on a couple of our shows before the season and I was a fan of Justin Herbert and fantasy because my whole case was, yeah, I understand that the volume could be down or they're projected. They're not supposed to throw the ball, but when you have a quarterback this good and you have a coach like Jim Harbaugh, eventually they're going to realize that passing the ball is their best way to score and they're going to be efficient enough just like they were with Colin Kaepernick.

And in a lot of ways, I'm sorry, did you have something Jacob? I buried the lead. I buried the lead and I just wanted to bring it up because you're hitting on it right now. 10% pass rate over expectation for the Chargers this week. That was the highest of any team in football. We had seen that rate be positive for three straight weeks, week seven through nine. And then Gus Edwards came back and it was negative last week, but this week it was much, much higher. So that's based on the circumstances of each individual play like how likely were they to pass?

They were doing it 10% more than what the expectation would be on those plays They were passing relative to expectations more than any team in the NFL this week And it's just like yeah, look at the team look at Justin Herbert Look at how well the passing game is working and that's just really exciting to see them continue to lean into that more and more Efficiency can make up for volume Justin Herbert in addition to everything He's done as a passer and I love we talked about us a lot with Jamie on the second behind the box door last week You know using Quinn Johnson those rail routes is having Quinn Johnson be that big play threat and then McConkey with McConkey It's just a matter of he won on so many routes at Georgia

You can see Carson Beck with McConkey and Bowers and Carson Beck without Bowers to kind of know what kind of impact they had on that offense. But he wanted those routes with the separation at the top of routes. As him and Herbert continue to play together, they're going to get that report even better to the point where Herbert, who was clearly an anticipatory throw, he's put it on tape over his entire career. One of the better ones, the NFL is going to start anticipating that, that, that separation, getting the ball into space. And McConkie is going to do stuff after the catch. We've seen it in at times this season. So I really liked both of those guys moving forward.

And one more thing just on this offense and fan from a fantasy standpoint, when it comes to Herbert, he is finally running the ball. Jacob, you talked about that on Thursday. And in this game on his big scramble, he hit 22 miles per hour, which is the fastest entire career. Like he's healthy again with his, they're going to utilize him as the weapon that he is

And it was under it was always underrated. He was a good runner at Oregon He was that was a terrible system for him both as a passer, but it's a good system for him as a runner So if you add that factor in as well Like you you talk a lot Adam about that glob of quarterbacks and where like some of these guys fit in I think he's above the glob I really do think Herbert in these games that Jacob is talking about with the projected point totals, not the chief scheme, but in some of these other in the rest of these games is a locked in QB one. And I would put him in the top eight.

Yeah, I know his ramble ray from the week five by on is higher than color. Murray's on a per drop back basis. He's scrambling more than color. Murray. Like it's, it's, it's really not just a few here and there. Like he's been doing it pretty consistently. And then we also see the design around the goal line last week. Yeah. There is rushing upside. Yeah. I mean, I think he's in the, in the, the glob, the blob, whatever it is, because if you look at Herbert's game log, I mean, you just, let's just start at week six, they have a week five by and begin in week six, they decided they were going to throw the ball more. He didn't have more than 27 pass attempts in any of his first four games since then 34, 39, 32, 27, 18 and 36 pass attempts.

So if we just use week six as, okay, we're finally going to open up the offense and throw the football. Uh, bad game, you know, average games against Denver and Arizona, 16 points against Denver, 15 points at Arizona, both on the road. Um, those are his toughest matchups by far in this stretch. New Orleans is horrible. 21,28 points Cleveland. They're not a good defense anymore. They just haven't been 23.5 points. Tennessee not that good. He only threw 18 passes he had a

rushing touchdown 21.8 points. Cincinnati they came into the game giving up the fifth most points to quarterbacks they can't defend the pass at all. 28.4 points per game. So it doesn't really matter because three of his next four opponents are Baltimore, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Like he is going to kill those teams. Right. So it's really just semantics.

He is a must start going forward because his schedule and his, the way he's playing make him a must start. The way he's playing, they're just, he's locked in at a different level than he was at week six or whatever. Dobbins, let's talk, let's finish up with Dobbins here because he had the big run at the end of the game and then they were using Haskins near the goal line for two straight carries.

And then they were like- I think that's a thing now. Yeah, but then they were like, screw this, let's use Dobbins like what we saw with Algier and Bijan a couple of weeks ago, right? Dobbins gets one touchdown there and then he gets the long touchdown at the end of the game and now he has had, so going into the game,

I said, Dobbins had five carries of 20 or more yards, but three of them came in the first two games of the season. So he really hadn't been explosive in a while. And it kind of looked the same. And Gus Edwards got the first carry and Dobbins was having kind of a quiet game until that late touchdown run. But it was a 29 yard touchdown run that gives him two

carries of 20 or more yards in his last three games. I'm not without concern though for Dobbins because his schedule kind of stinks with Baltimore and Kansas City in two of his next three games. I thought he'd struggle in this game. I won't call it lucky, but they're fortunate, right? He was fortunate to have that long run at the end of the game. He only had one catch. I see him as less than less than a must start.

Mostly because of Baltimore and Kansas city in the next three weeks. And you guys probably, I'm assuming you feel the same way. Yeah, I do. I'm, I'm very nervous about him rest of the season. I haven't a bunch of leagues, so it's going to be interesting to see, uh, maybe the game script will help them in some of these with the, with the higher point totals, but I'm curious about the usage of Haskins and that's a former horror, hardball player at Michigan as well. And then this Quinton Johnston dude, like 62% started two catches, 48 yards and a touchdown on eight targets.

He has, uh, six touchdowns on 37 targets. And like I went and I watched them and most of his touchdowns are wide open. Yep. Well, that's what I was saying on the, on the podcast last week with Jamie, like that's how the way this offense is set up. He's run on those rail routes where like, he's going to get open a lot on those because there's so much attention focus.

And I don't know if you watch, if you remember this from watching them, Adam, but how many did you watch from the end zone angle or the sideline? If you watch from the end zone angle, a lot of these are not the play side. So it's the backside of play. So Herbert's looking to the play side and he's such a good quarterback at this point that he's able to process and come off to the back side where Johnson's open. He just hits him. He had a really low, Herbert had a really low first three target rate this week. And I think that just speaks like how well he was processing things like he does. So,

All right. Good stuff. All right. So beyond the box score today and Thursdays as well You can hear that and well you can watch that youtube.com fantasy football today If you don't see it live in the live tab tab, just hit the videos tab and you can find that We're gonna take a break when we come back We'll give you your news and notes before we do that though If you have not signed up for bet MGM yet use the bonus code If you have not signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code fantasy, and you're gonna get up to a $1,500 first bet offer

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We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Okay, so if you guys are voting today, who's your MVP? I'll give it to Lamar too. Yeah, I'm with you. Lamar Jackson for me. Oh, okay. Jamie did a put. But with that said.

With that said. Josh Allen 43%, Lamar Jackson, 32.6% Jared Goff, 19.9%. Good. I said, with that said, Josh Allen's win over Casey, albeit at home, which is important, and albeit on a offensive pass interference that was not called, which finally the chiefs got the bad end of a call, um, was impressive because they beat the only nine in a team. So I'm open to the consideration that it will be Alan. I think Alan is the better quarterback, but I think Lamar has been the better player this

year. This overall. Well, I think a lot of people are saying that Alan's nine and two and Lamar's seven and four in second place. How can you give them the MVP? Right. If you were four and seven, okay, maybe, but they're seven and four and it's not like they're bad. I don't care. This, I think Heath was saying like, you can't give the MVP to a guy in second place.

Why? I don't agree with that. Why? Who cares? If you look at the numbers for Lamar Jackson prior to this week, he was on his store, like the projections over a 17 game sample size season, he was on historic paces from a total yard standpoint from a touchdown standpoint

So he was doing something a little bit different. I think at least projection wise Than Alan, but yeah Alan did beat the nine-to-no team. So I I know that I know both sides of this argument I've heard this debate a lot. I love that you brought up the if man It was like the reverse diff is reversed if man I don't know if you've seen that on Twitter where it's like, if Joe Burrow, if the Bengals weren't four and seven, he would be MVP. Well, you are four and seven.

Yeah. Well, this is what I tweeted. They've played the same amount of games and Lamar Jackson has 333 more passing yards, seven more passing touchdowns, two fewer interceptions, 1.5 more yards per attempt, 67% completion rate versus 64%, 268 more rushing yards, but three fewer rushing touchdowns. And then of course I get the, well, it's all about the stats. I know it's not all about the stats.

Like I've watched plenty of football this year too. Levar Jackson is playing out of his mind, but he did not have a great game against the Steelers. And we are going to talk about that and what was missing there because they actually, I'll just, you know, this is the last thing we're talking about. It's our last big topic. You know, Baltimore, if you're worried

about them going forward, they averaged 6.1 yards per play against the Steelers. That's the most of any team against Pittsburgh all year. They had a lot of big plays that were there for the taking and Jackson had some bad throws on deep balls. Flowers had a drop. There was that interception for the taking and Jackson had some bad throws on deep balls. Flowers had a drop. There was that interception on the slightly under thrown ball to Justice Hill up the sideline. They could have they could have and they struggled in the red zone and then they

missed the field goals. They actually weren't that bad against Pittsburgh, but in my opinion, but we'll talk about that a little bit later. All right, real quick on the news and notes, Tommy DeVito is going to start for the Giants and congratulations Tommy DeVito. You have an amazing schedule, Tampa Bay, Dallas, New Orleans, Baltimore, Atlanta, Indianapolis for the rest of the fantasy season. What do you think this means for Malik neighbors, Dan? I don't think this is necessarily a good thing for Malik neighbors.

When DeVito first came in, he Did a few things differently than Daniel Jones last year He would he would take some shots against cover two into the hole shots These are you know difficult throws for a lot of quarterbacks a lot of them don't have the confidence to make it Jones was one Of them, but eventually they took away some of the concepts that the Vito liked and if you look at the overall Like stretch of his starts Yeah, he had three wins But two of those came with a lot of turnover luck the Patri Patriots and Washington, the Giants defense had six tone overs in the Washington game and the Patriots game. I think Mack Jones had like two horrible turnovers. So I don't

necessarily know because, because on offense, the giants were negative EPA in all of those games. So I don't necessarily think this is a good thing for the offense. If I'm going to be honest at all, really, um, it's not really a good thing for neighbors. He's not really a deep shot type quarterback. Drew lock would have been interesting from that standpoint to unlock neighbors in the deep half, which is something Jones was never able to do overall. I think it's as bad for Tracy. I think this is bad for neighbors. I think this is bad for the entire offense. Didn't you say last year, I'm sorry if I missed it, I was looking at some of the comments about Mar Jackson, that they figured him out and they took away the middle

of the, they took away the sidelines because he can't throw to the middle of the field because he's four foot eight or whatever, you know, he's small. Not for the day, but yeah, that was essentially what happened. DeVito was using the outside, the outside numbers, which something Daniel Jones never did.

And it was fun, exciting to see, but defense has adjusted to that. And DeVito, you need a lot of anticipation to take advantage of the middle of the field. We'll see if he's changed, right? Like he was bad at processing last year. He was a rookie. Like there's a chance that he could get better with time, uh, given a chance.

He has a better situation around him than last year for sure. Though he won't have Andrew Thomas who he had last year's, but, uh, it, you know, we'll see what happens with this. Uh, I wouldn't, it can't get that much worse from elite neighbors. I don't think, cause he wasn't really getting any good targets in the last few weeks. He was just getting kind of volume. He's used as like a possession receiver. I think they'll still get him a lot of targets.

I just think it could hurt Tracy. And last thing I'll say about the veto, if you're in a super flex league, he did score 17.5 or more fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown leagues in three of his five starts. He never had single digit fantasy points. So you know, compared to a guy like Mac Jones, that's pretty, you know, what he's doing, you know, that's pretty good. And I had forgotten about his rushing ability fire. He was on pace for 547 rushing yards. So that was, you know, that's interesting at least. Okay. I

don't have any major injury updates on offensive players except Darnell Mooney. They don't think it's a serious hamstring injury. So we're hoping, hoping that he's back after their week 12 by there were some defensive injuries and like an offensive, but Dewan Jones for Cleveland, I think Dave mentioned this on the broadcast last night. I think he was carted off. He has a broken leg, I believe, and he's out for the season. Alex Anzaloni linebacker for the lions.

He's out for maybe the rest of the regular season. Uh, that was a tough one. And I'm going to, I'm going to leave it at that. Let's get into some advanced stats. Jacob, you had an extra hour today. I expect 60 extra advanced stats from you. Go ahead. Well, I spent that time arguing with people on Twitter about Christian Watson instead.

Uh, yeah, let's talk about Christian Watson. He has one of the highest yard per route run rates on the season of any player. I think he's right. You see we're 15 in yards route run and like, why do you see we're 12 in fantasy points brought run and me bringing that up, you know, like has gotten people in a bit of a tizzy. You have to contextualize it, of course, as you do with any stat Watson's been on and off the field like he seems to always be. But when Jordan Love has been healthy, when Watson has been healthy, he's had at least a 59% route rate every week. It was 70% this past week. He's clearly playing ahead of Don Tavian Wick. So it's not like this is too-too-at-well or something where it's like a player putting up crazy efficiency

stats in a bit role where they come in and do something where the office is designing them a look and then they go off the field after that and so the route that is really inflated. After this game hundred fifty yards for Watson this past week by the way kind of flew under the radar after this game his yard per hour and rate is above two for his career, which is elite. So this isn't to say that Watson is an elite player or anything like that, but he is an elite efficiency producer, a very close to elite efficiency producer. And it's been that way from the outset since he's entered the NFL. And he continues to get opportunities even though he's continued to be unreliable, whether that's health or coming you know, coming down with 50-50 plays and all this stuff, he continues to get on the field and get used a lot. He tied Jayden Reid for the team lead in first-three target rate this week. He's clearly an important part of what Green Bay wants to do.

And we've outlined this as well when we look ahead at the schedules. After this Chicago matchup, Green Bay has a string of like four or five straight potential shootouts to close out the season. And so I think Watson is somebody who is really interesting. Like this week, the passing numbers and just the offensive numbers as a whole were really low because the Packers only ran 43 plays. That was the lowest of any team. The Jaguars were the only other team below 50. And so I think it's really just kind of a strange week and still Watson was really productive. And there's a lot of upside left. I would be targeting him and continuing to target

Jayden Reed as well going forward. Yeah, he's only, Watson's only 52% roster. This is someone we talked about on the Beat the Waiver Wire show is, look, you got six teams on a buy. This is definitely someone that on any given week can give you a big performance I Just wish the a dot were a little bit lower Yeah, right. It's funny cuz um, there's two two indicators for me of it's gonna be hard for this player to be really good

and that is a dot of let's say 15 or higher and slot rate of 70% or higher. Slot rate of 70% or higher, you know who that is? That's Josh Downs, that's Jaden Reed, and that's Lad McConkey. And they're right around 70%. And I'm always willing to reevaluate all of my stances. Yeah, maybe Matt LaFleur is just the caveat

for some of these. Maybe, but Reed is frustrating, right? Like Reed is having kind of a disappointing season, but, but actually there's, there's something else to that for McConkey and Reed to be in the slot that much. They still get downfield targets. Um, that helps if you ha if you are in the slot that much, a lot of the times it means you're not playing all that much because you're only on three receiver sets, but if they get downfield targets, because like McConkey, if you're thinking of him as just this short area guy and he's not at all, he's kind of

got a higher ADOT for someone in the slot that much. But anyway, yeah, I thought it was interesting because Jayden Reid played 57% of the snaps yesterday. That's his fifth game this season with a snap rate lower than 60%. His third with Jordan Love, two of those are with Malik Willis. But he's obviously frustrating fantasy managers tough because they only threw 17 passes yesterday. Yeah, it's just been a really weird season for the Packers contextually with the quarterback injuries and then

just stuff like this. I think there's a chance that it's about to just like, the damn just breaks in a big way. If we do get some shootouts over this next month. I think Jordan Love is a great by low candidate because I don't know how low you guys think he's so good, but he is like, I'd rather have him than Herbert. No, no. He doesn't offer the rushing is I guess the main thing.

What's his like fantasy playoff schedule? Cause it is if like Herbert might carry you to the playoffs and then give you like nine points in the championship at the problem. Yeah. Seattle at Seattle home against New Orleans at Minnesota. Yeah. That Minnesota game. But I mean, he had a huge game against Minnesota previously. Like if that gets into a shootout, love could still have a huge game, but that is a tough matchup. He scored 22 points on 17 pass attempts against the he's had the most points of any quarterback against the Bears

all year. Yeah, you know, he was pressured on 50% of his drop backs too. And they just kind of like, we're like, all right, enough of this. We're just gonna run the ball. All right, go ahead, Jacob. Sorry, you only talked about one guy. My bad. Go ahead. No, it's a good there's a lot of interesting context to get into there. Joanne Jennings, we got to just keep bringing him up.

We'll do it quickly here. 39% first free target rate last week. That was up to 45% in week 11. Of course, George Kittle missing the game probably influenced that, but it's just like, man, this guy is a monster. Um, he had, I think seven of like 11 first downs for the 49ers in terms of converting passing first downs. Like he's, you see like the one where he literally just like physicals his way through three

people to get a first down. Like that's the thing. He's just, he's a dude, like he's trustworthy and they're going to keep running things through him. I think when we've seen him be, um, on the field, like unhealthy, he's been the primary option and put up absolutely monster numbers. So yeah, the peripherals continue to look good for him. Like his yard per run rates went up this week.

That's crazy because it's been like all year we're like, it has to go down. The only players who are higher are Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins and AJ Brown. No, he's still there. He's still top four. Yeah. Adam, are we willing to revisit the argument from last week? Is he a must start player? Yeah. You'll take the L on that one. Thank you. Were we willing to revisit the argument from last week? Is he a must start player? Yeah, he is.

You'll take the L on that one? Thank you, thank you. Let's just bring up Jamison Williams too while we're here. He's must start, right? We saw it. No, so that's the thing. Without Laporta, Jamison Williams is must start. I don't know about with Laporta,

but no, I just wanna say with Joanne Jennings, I just think it's amazing. Why are the 49ers so good? Brock Purdy to Joanne Jennings, that's two seventh round picks. Yeah. Two seventh round picks. Yeah, two seventh round picks really good development by them. But but but those rates like with that kind of volume in that kind of offense, there's just very few receivers who are actually

going to be better starts weekly and Juan Jennings as crazy as that sounds. All right, go ahead with Jameson Williams who made the most of his targets for sure. And I think he had I actually had some notes on him. He had a, one of his lowest eight, he had his lowest eight out of the year in any game with more than one target at 11.7 yard a dot. We also had a 64 yard touchdown catch and run against the team. That gives up a ton of big plays. So go ahead. You think he's a must start. I don't actually have anything on JMA. I just wanted to keep, keep giving it another one in for me. Thank you, Jacob. I appreciate you always keep dunking. Let's keep dunking on Adam then.

Are you ready to concede the Niners is gonna score more than the Ravens going forward? Are we done with that one? No, they didn't even have that good of a game. They lost, man. They lost. What'd they score? 20?

More than the Ravens, right? They scored more than the Ravens. Ravens scored 16. What was the Niners' score? Oh, they scored 17. 17 to 16. They really, really have 17 today. Yeah, yeah. Oh my God, it's so painful watching the Niners have 17 days. Yeah. Oh, my God.

It's so painful watching the Niners when you have Niners players in your fantasy team. Every single play clock for Shanhan goes down to two seconds, and he just grinds that clock. But I still think you'll be right on that one, Jacob. Brock Bowers. So Michael Marriott returned, and it was just the first game back, but still 85% rat rate for Brock Bowers. That was the second highest of any tight end this week. So that is good because previously when he had been sharing the field with Mary, it was like a 67% rate. Also, he obviously just had a monster game. He had a 52% of the team's first three targets. He converted 10 first downs. That is crazy. Only five tight ends dating back

to 2000 have ever done that in a game. The most ever is 11 by George Kittle. No one else has done that. After that, it's Jason Witton, Kellen Winslow, Mark Andersen, Bowers each had 10. So we're saying Travis Kelsey, Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates. None of those guys ever did in a game and Brock Bowers did as a 22 year old. And that's an obscure stat, but converting first downs is obviously important for, you know, moving the chains and winning real life football. And he's, he's just a monster. He's everything that people thought he might be as a prospect. Pretty good. I go back to I remember, on hard knocks, they were saying, I forget who it was Joe Shane, maybe he's like, Oh, no, no, it was table. He's like, I called Nick Saban. And he said two players in this class gave us problems. Every word were problems. Brock Bowers and Malik neighbors. I'll never forget that. That was really cool. All right, go ahead. Keep going, sir. Jackson Smith and Jigba. I just want to lay out a timeline here. So week nine, he hit a

new career high with 42% first read target rate. Then they have their buying week 10, then DK Mac F comes back, he had a three game absence. absence and that culminated in the big week nine game for JSN. In the first half of week 11, DK is back, they're funneling everything through him. He had a 50% first retarget rate in the first half, DK MechHalf. That resulted in 23 yards. He had a drop, it just wasn't really working. JSN only had 12% of the first retargets in the first half, caught all of them for 38 yards. In the second half, we see Seattle change things and really funnel things through Smith

and Jigba. He had a 42% first three target rate in the second half, caught all of his catchable targets for 72 yards. In the second half, they come back and win. I think it's just one game and you don't want to get carried away with just splitting things into halves and everything, but it seems like the momentum just continues to build for JSN and he just kind of keeps checking off things. And it's like, he might be doing the look at me, look at me.

I'm the captain now thing, you know, like it, it seems crazy to say anyone would do that to DK Metcalf, but I mean, I think Jason is really good. So this is another encouraging data point. Don't get carried away with it, but we've we're getting a few of them as the year goes on here. John Oosmith was the only tight end who did have a higher route rate than Brock Bowers this week. He also led the Dolphins in first downs again on the year he and Tyree kill have the same number of receiving first downs. John Oosmith has the highest first down per

route run rate of any tight end among qualified tight ends. He continues to be a really important part of the offense and really the only part of the offense that's been working. Devon Aitchin is working, of course, but defenses are keying in on him so much that his success rate is relatively low. He's often not as efficient as we've seen in the past, whereas like Jono Smith has been crazy efficient all year. I think this is real. Like it was another matchup where like the zone heavy to high safety stuff like suggests that we'll see a lot of Jono, but like we did again, and he keeps being productive. He's always been productive when getting given opportunities, honestly. You guys remember when Jalen Waddle was on the dolphins? Yeah. Fifth Jalen waddle fifth

on the team in first three targets behind Malik Washington behind Odell Beckham. Pretty cool. Not cool at all. No, no, it's not. Uh, Audrake estimate. Remember that? What a week that was. He'll always have week 10. 21% snap rate, six of 23 running back rush attempts. He had three offensive snaps in the first half. So I guess, yeah, it's just right back to Givante. I wanted to bring up that Caleb Williams played better. We'll talk about the Bears in more detail, but I just wanted to highlight Caleb. His catchable target rate, I think, might've been the highest that it's been all year.

It was above league average, which is like a huge accomplishment for him at this point. Caleb. Yeah. Yeah. We have, that's one of our big topics. Yeah, for sure. Last thing I want to hit on is the bills. So I brought up pass rate over expectation at the top, um, in reference to the chargers,

the bills through the first six weeks were 23rd in pass rate over expectation, meaning they were running more than expected. Then they trade for Amari Cooper, and from that point on, they've had a positive pass rate over expectation in every single game. Their rate during that time is 9.7%. So for reference, the Bengals had the highest PROE in the league at 9.7% over the course of the full season. Second place is the Seahawks at 5.8%. So they're lately, since making the trade for Cooper, passing relative to expectations

at the highest rate in the league, which is just shocking for a Joe Brady offense. And I think it makes some sense, the timing with the Cooper trade. So that's just interesting for Khalil Shakir and maybe Kinkade if he gets back, maybe Cooper, I thought he looked good on some of these. Outbreaking throws with Josh Allen, uh, his rat rate was still right around 50%. Um, so this week it was, it was all Shakir. He had the highest first retarded rate and he was the most important part of the offense, but I think it could be Cooper down the stretch.

Okay. I just got to correct one thing I said earlier, meant to do it earlier, but whoops. I said that Jamar Chase's yards per target was like double with him without Higgins on the field, like better with Higgins on the field than off the field. It is better, but I was comparing his yards per catch to his yards per target. So I made that mistake.

His yards per target with Higgins on the field, it's 12.5 with him off the field, it's 8.9. His yards per catch is 17.5 with Higgins on the field, it's 12.5 with him off the field, it's 8.9. His yards per catch is 17.5 with Higgins on the field. So my bad there, still a huge, much more efficient player with Higgins on the field than off the field. All right, it's just some notes I had here on some snap counts. Adonai Mitchell played only 12 snaps against the Jets.

We are gonna talk about the Colts wide receivers. Kendrick Bourne, kind of interested. I mean, I don't know, mildly interested. He played 47% of the snaps. He had five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Coming off a game in week nine where he had four for 41 on six targets.

So it's probably nothing, but. I think he's been good, but yeah, then they like benched him. They like phased them out in week 10. I was like, okay, they're just going to the young guys. But then he was back in this week. I thought he may have been hurt. He wasn't hurt, then they like benched him. They like phased them out in week 10. I was like, okay, they're just going to the young guys. But then he was back in this week. I thought he may have been hurt. I was, he wasn't hurt. He just got benched. I didn't see anything about him getting hurt.

Well, he's 2% rostered. I guess that's why I'm interested in him because there's leagues out there where you might need a Kendrick Bourne, um, Baltimore wide receiver snap shares. They flowers played 84% of the snaps, Bateman 80% Aguilar 39%, Deontay Johnson 18%. I believe this was the third straight week where Josh Oliver played more snaps than TJ Hockinson. Hockinson's been right around 48% of the snaps in all three of his games back. Don't know if that's going to get elevated. It really needs to. I know he was good two weeks or two games ago last week, but we need him to be on the field more and Oliver's hurt. So maybe that will change things. Deandre Hopkins played less than half the snaps. The chiefs are almost, they're so rarely in three receiver sets. They have the fourth

lowest rate of three receiver sets in the NFL and Cleveland was in three receiver sets, three or more receiver sets on 84.3% of their snaps. They do that all the time. So that's, you know, Cleveland's another team we're gonna talk about and what you can expect from their receivers. J.K. Dobbins played 73% of the snaps and Brian Thomas Jr. people didn't trust them. I didn't trust him.

He had a 33 yard catch overturned in the fourth quarter. He went over a hundred yards, well over a hundred yards with that catch. Yes. Maybe he can have a big finish if Trevor Lawrence comes back. And I'm surprised Doug Peterson is still employed. I was expecting to be talking about a new coach, which could happen by tomorrow. We'll see.

All right, we're gonna take a break. We got our four big topics starting with the Colts wide receivers and what to expect with him with them with Anthony Richardson back. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Colts get a big win on the road at the Jets and Anthony Richardson had a huge fourth quarter. He's only 44% rostered. First three quarters, Richardson was 12 of 20 for 143 yards. Fourth quarter, 8 of 10 for 129 yards and a touchdown and a rushing touchdown as well. 80% completion rate, a 0% off target rate in the fourth quarter. So he came alive. Dan, what is your take on the Colts wide receivers? Vinny Naps on Twitter says

the Colts wide receivers now with Anthony Richardson. What what lies ahead? Well, it was interesting to watch that game back on tape because they did figure out different ways to get Anthony Richardson more comfortable as a thrower. It seemed like earlier this year, Shane Steichen was trying to develop an offense that he envisioned and hoping kind of Richardson fits into that. And then this game, it went back to kind of what we saw last year from the small sample size of Richardson, which is like utilizing his skill set more RPO early, more designed, easy reads.

And I thought it got him more comfortable and then allowed him to thrive a little bit as a thrower. I don't want to make too much of it because the jets have actually been a much worse defense than we thought they'd be this year. And so it's not necessarily maybe the matchup to make your declaration on. But I do feel like moving forward, this offense has a little bit more upside in from the passing game than I expected going into this, you know, second error of Anthony Richardson. They get Detroit, which gave up a lot of points to wide receivers and not a lot to quarterbacks,

which is strange. And they're at New England after that. And then a buy. What do you think, Jacob? Can we trust Josh Downs or anyone else? Yeah, I think you can trust Josh Downs for sure. I just tweeted out the Colts. Anthony Richardson produced 213 catchable air yards this week, which is really high.

Joe Burrow leads the league with 208 per game. So anybody can have a game where they go above 200, but still it's encouraging. I think that's got to be his highest mark on the year. And then James Swenson- I assume when you say Joe Burrow, you're not including James Swenson. 259, 259 for James Swenson and his starts. We're gonna get to it. But yeah, to I think 17 is what I said for Anthony Richardson. And that is good. He was pressured a ton, uh, over 40%. Yeah,

only Will Levis and Jordan Love were pressured at a higher rate in week 11 and still managed to have a, a good game. Uh, we saw the rushing as well. So super encouraging. I haven't watched it yet, but I'm going to. Yeah, I watched it live. Dan watched the tape. Richardson was definitely better. And I'm glad you said that because I was watching the game going, oh, wow, they're really, you know,

I use the word gimmicky that sounds bad, but they were designing a lot of things to make it easy on Anthony Richardson. And they were doing it creatively and it was working. Right. Good for them. They were just out scheming the jets. So, so I liked that. That's a out scheming the jets. So I like that.

That's a good point you brought up. And I think he'll be- I'm seeing not a single scramble for Richardson. Is that possible? Were they all designed runs? I don't remember. The ones I saw were designed. I don't remember if there was a scramble though.

I can't remember. Yeah. Okay. So we'll see. Detroit's a much tougher matchup. They haven't allowed multiple touchdown passes to a quarterback yet, but they have not been great against mobile quarterbacks. So we'll see. Detroit's a much tougher matchup. They haven't allowed multiple touchdown passes to a quarterback yet, but they have not been great against mobile quarterback. So we'll see. I think Richardson is going to be one of the prizes on the free agent on the waiver wire

at 44% rostered. We'll see how people react. All right. Joey Taranto says, do we see any difference in the scheme or the personnel usage with the new Bears offensive coordinator? Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I've got notes on this. Did you have something? or the personnel usage with the new Bears offensive coordinator. Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I've got notes on this.

Did you have something? Yeah. You like the cheese that right? A lot. I mean, they had the third lowest pre snap motion rate in the NFL in weeks one through 10, sixth highest in the NFL in wheel 11 so far. And they use motion on almost two thirds of their possession.

They had been above 48 percent in only one other game. They had a higher run rate. They didn't have a single three and out for the first time all season. And you didn't see you didn't see me tweet these, right? No, I didn't. I didn't. OK, we're like coming to all the same stuff. We just looked at the same page on true media. Just like, but no, I mean, the

pre snap motion, Jacob really stands out. If you look at the teams that lead the NFL and pre-step motion, it's the Rams, Packers, Dolphins, Texans, Falcons, Niners, Chargers, Lions, Chiefs, and then the Raiders are there as well. So it's, it's weird. I feel like everyone should just do it on almost every play. I had two notes for you, dive in, Jacob. The two things I noticed from watching was one, they did a better job of moving Caleb Williams out of the pocket to find him some easier spots to the use that pre snap motion in a creative way because I thought it did a good job of giving him kind of two reads to work

through and a lot more quick game with that pre snap motion receiver. If he's open, you can hit him. And sometimes it allowed like underneath crossers So I thought they did a better job of you guys in quick game against this defense at least specifically that was from that standpoint But from the personnel standpoint what I thought was interesting was they kind of they had a very expansive Personnel usage under Shane Waldron's is kind of what happened in Seattle to played a lot of players that probably shouldn't have been on the field if we're going to be honest And then in this game the Bears got back to just a more what's the word? I'm looking for like a funnel look with set. They had 75 offensive snaps 60 of them had More Alan Adunza and commit on the field. So almost all that's what you want

Like that's the best way to move your offense You don't need to be mixing in all these tight ends and backs that aren't going to help you on any given snap like those guys could. So I thought that was really important. One final thing I thought was interesting just watching it, the different depth and the different ways they use DJ Moore. I'm a lot more excited about DJ Moore rest of season than I was prior to this and probably wouldn't have been if Waldron was still the coordinator. So I think that could be a nice thing to look forward to as well there.

87% first retarget rate for Caleb Williams this week was the second highest in the NFL going into this week. It was at 60.5%, which was the third lowest. And so, yeah, I think, uh, Shane Waldering, like if I had to describe him, it's like galaxy brain, like you watch him, and there's just so many plays where it's like, how, how did you think this is going to work? Then there's other plays where it's like, well, that was cool. I've never really seen that in terms of the way they're like moving things around and

just kind of give an eye candy to the defense or whatever. But it's like, those are just kind of few and far between. And there's a lot of stuff that just doesn't work. Whereas this game, it felt like way more simple and that is born out of like basically every stat I've seen. So the first retarded rate is huge. For the offense as a whole, and especially as it pertains to fantasy,

it's really relevant that the three receiver set rate went way up, it was at 83% during the Shane Waldron era, that was at 69%. I think it was only above 80% one other time all year. So more through receiver sets means more opportunities for all three of those guys, which is good for fantasy, of course. Their success rate was the highest it's ever been. Their pre-snap motion we hit on, three nouts we hit on, only 21% of their plays. This is definitely a Walter thing. Only 21% of their plays resulted in no gain

or negative yardage entering week 11. They had the third highest rate at 37%. And so like, yeah, I was almost cut in half. And it's just like, yes, these negative plays. That's why we keep thinking like, why is Caleb always trying to play hero ball? And it's like, because he freaking has to because we keep getting in these disadvantageous situations. Yeah, I go ahead. Let's let's pour a little cold water here, right? Just to give the other side. They scored 19 points. Caleb did not throw a touchdown and he was not really so good for

the first three quarters. He kind of came alive, made two really good throws to Roma do and say on the last drive, which should have been a game winning drive. It had the field goal blocked. It's not like they exploded offensively here and they, I feel they think they had the ball for a ton of time, right? Yeah. It just feels like there's hope. It feels like you look at this and you're like, okay, this could work maybe. Whereas before it's like, this season can't get over fast enough. Like this is unbelievably bad. Yeah. And I have more hope for a doomsday too. I mean, he had 10

targets and he also had a, an over, there was like an overthrown ball, but basically for a intended for a doomsday could have had a bigger game for Williams. I always look at the passes of 10 or more air yards. And in the first three quarters, he was one or four for 25 yards in the fourth quarter. He was four or five for 66 yards. He did a similar thing against Washington where he had a really good fourth quarter and they should have won that game. They lost on the

Hail Mary. They, he had a good fourth quarter and they should have won this game and he didn't follow it up. So I am encouraged. I am encouraged, but I'm not like because it's week 12 and there are all these teams on by, you know, that's going to make DJ more and a do-and-say I think starters for a lot of people. But I don't think we saw enough for me to be like, yeah, it's, it's all systems go. It's certainly not for, I don't know. Yeah. I don't think either any of us think it's all system. Oh, but just, I liked the way Jacob termed it. Is there some hope? A couple of other things I just like, and not only how they utilize quick game and that's kind of what led to what you said, Adam, uh, more time of possession, but also some design quarterback runs for Caleb Williams. That was something that I

wasn't used to seeing. They use them on his own read. His scramble rate must have been up. I don't have the numbers in front of me. He had five scrambles, which was the highest in the league. It was tied with Purdy. So that's something that's going to happen as well. And that's good because that's kind of goes back to the Richard thing. These young quarterbacks, these real quarterbacks, I haven't seen a lot at the NFL level, haven't been able to process much or reps to process much. Use their, if they're athletic like that, use them. Get your free yards while you can.

And I think that's something we could see tick up too. Rest of season is rushing. Let me get your take on a couple of things. Someone yesterday said that I look like the kid from Elf. And I want to know. I have to see the kid from Elf again to know. There is this guy. Where did, I saw that on Twitter.

Oh man. This guy? Go ahead Oh man. Yeah. Sorry. Yeah. Oh, I saw someone say the Nick Sirianni looks like this guy. Oh yes. I said, go away to go is the hoodie.

Yeah. So then you look like Nick Sirianni. Does Adam then look like Nick Sirianni? No. I don't think so. I don't think I really think Adam looks like this kid. Yeah. But then there's one.

Hold on. Let me see. I mean, they might weigh this thing, but I don't think I really think Adam looks like this kid. Yeah, but then there's one Hold on. I mean they might weigh this thing, but I don't think he looks like him Zoo hire says Adams the kind of guy who locks the door when he's just washing his hands in a restaurant 100% I don't even know if Adam does wash his hands in a public or something he has his own like set of like He's still like clean after going to the bathroom like four checks You know if I go we have my own personal washing and I have an extra set of hand sanitizer, you know, you know, yes. If I go into a bathroom, no, I'll go in and just wash my hands.

But obviously like this scenario was I didn't use the bathroom. I just went in to wash my hands. I don't usually lock the door because that's another thing that I have to touch. And my whole goal is to touch as few things as possible. If there are paper towels in the bathroom, I will use the paper towel to turn on the sink, lock the, I will lock the door actually. I'll use the paper towel to lock the door.

I will use the paper. I will not touch, put my hand on anything. Wait, you do the paper towel thing? Yeah. On everything, on the sink, on everything. Yeah. Oh my God. Don't be surprised.

I could never imagine living like that where I have to get the towel up things like, yeah, no, it's not. It's not fun. All right. Another one from Vinnie here. He wants to know about the Browns wide receivers and they're coming off a game where Jamis Winston threw for 395 yards on 46 pass attempts. Tillman had eight targets. Elijah Moore had eight targets.

Jerry Judy had 11 targets. Two of those guys were good. Tillman was bad. Jacob, do you have hope for the, and now, and now we've got Steelers Broncos, Steelers coming up. Do you have hope for the Browns wide receivers going forward? Uh, not really. Like because of the matchups, I'm pretty worried that they're going to bench James Winston at some point. We'll see on that, but like if they're not winning, why if it falls apart, like like i don't know it's the browns they do dumb stuff all the time maybe like they wanted it seemed like they

wanted to go to dtr originally when watson went down um but yeah as long as winston's there i think you can just you know throw a hope and a prayer out there and start these guys because the volume is so high um you know they're they're like all in the top 10 and air yards every single week. Uh, so like, you know, go for it, but like, you're going to have weeks like this with Tillman where. It's, uh, I think only like a fourth of his area yards were catchable. Um, and three games with Winston, he has 207 uncatchable area yards.

Um, so like Judy's had it better in that regard. Judy's uncatchable air yard number is 112. Judy has the highest catchable target rate on the team during those starts, other than N'Joku, who has just such short targets. But yeah, with Winston, it's unlike anything we are seeing in the NFL in terms of airing it out. And honestly, a lot of it is catchable.

But on an individual player to player basis it can be really volatile week to week because like what we just saw with Tillman. Well look we laid it out a couple weeks ago right they're in three receiver sets all the time and they throw the ball all the time the question is are they gonna throw the ball all the time against the Broncos and the Steelers those teams they're both in the top half of the league in terms of pass attempts allowed per game. The last three opponents that Jamis Winston has faced ranked very high, first, eighth and fifth in pass attempts per game against. The next three opponents are just two teams, Pittsburgh's 10th and Denver's

13th in pass attempts against. So I do think they are going to throw the ball. They're number one in pass rate. They are just a throwing throwing team. They more than any other team in football. So yeah, I actually find it kind of think these guys are going to be okay. I don't think you have to necessarily run away from them. The weird thing I noticed when I was watching the tapes like man, James Winston thrown to the right a lot. Is this a trend? It is. James Winston in week 11, he had 21 pass attempts to the right, 14 to the left, nine over the middle. In 2023, he had 27 pass attempts to the right.

He didn't have to throw a lot in 2023. 27 pass attempts to the right, 10 to the left, 10 to the middle. For this entire season, 62 to the right, 51 to the left, 30 over the middle. So he just throws right a lot. And Jerry Judy actually lines up on the right more than anyone else. Like it's like more kind of like 60 40 he's on the right and Tillman's on the left. Um, so I just thought that was kind of what you want beyond the box score. That's beyond the box score for you. Um, but I think they're going to be okay.

I think in the last three games where he has started, where Winston started, I think two of the receivers have had a good game and one has had a bad game in like all three games. They just kind of take turns. Like, yeah. Elijah Moore was garbage last week. So Tillman was bad this week. And three games ago, Jerry Judy scored 2.8 fantasy points. They're basically like Calvin Ridley,

but there's three of them on the same team. And it's just like, yeah, I don't know. You're just playing roulette. Yeah. All right. There could be worse situations though, with all those air yards, like some of these offenses don't throw the ball.

So it's at least you're getting the chance for, is again, these like back end flex plays, I'd rather get the chance in an offense that's going to throw the ball up. And I think Jameis is playing better than Will Evans on the Ridley thing. Yes. All right. Last one is from AJ Johnson. Are we worried about the Ravens offense with their remaining schedule except for the Giants

who they play in week 15? They have the Chargers on the road, then the Eagles defense, so good, then the Abai, then the Giants, then the Steelers again, and then they're at Houston. So are we worried about the Ravens offense with a difficult schedule coming up? Depending on your expectations, yes. Like I don't think they're gonna play

at the level they had played at, where essentially like Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry were fantasy, the only people that mattered for winning a fantasy matchup for a lot of weeks, uh, having those guys on your team. I don't think that's going to be the case for us to season. These are difficult matchups. Um, but ultimately I still think they're going to be able to score a point. I don't think it's like, we're worried about benching them, right?

No. Um, but you could maybe like trade them, you know, like if, if Lamar still has this like massive cheat code perception, you know, where it's like he has outscored the next highest quarterback by 50 points or whatever. You could turn that into, if you can turn that into that kind of value that might make sense. Cause I don't think that's necessarily what you can expect rest of the season, especially when there's a week 14 buy. So like, if you need to feel good about winning week 14 and heading into your by or heading into the playoffs and all that, like I would definitely be interested in like a deal where you move from him to Allen or something. Or I don't know if that people probably don't do like parallel swaps

like that very often, but uh, like him to down to Jordan love, and then also get back a really good flex option or something. Yeah. But I, you know, to make the case for Jackson scored 27 points at the chiefs. They have a good defense score 27.6 fantasy points against the bills. They have a good defense score 29.6 fantasy points on 19 pass attempts against the Denver Broncos. He is Lamar freaking Jackson. The Steelers own him. I mean, I thought this would be different, but they get him every time pretty much. Like he just cannot play well against the Steelers and he does have the Steelers one more time and it's in your fantasy semi finals. But he's, he's been great against every other team. Like I mentioned, the Ravens

moved the ball really well against the Steelers. They had the most yards per play of any opponent against the Steelers all year. The problem in this game, in my opinion, was Lamar Jackson was just off down the field. He was three at 12, three of 12 for 77 yards, one touchdown, one interception on pass attempts of 15 or more area. One really bad drop by Zay Flowers to terrible drop by Flowers. He had a kind of a near touchdown with Deontay Johnson early in the game up the sideline, but it wasn't a great throw. Slightly under threw that ball to Justice Hill. It ended up being an interception.

50% off target rate on throws of 15 or more area yards was by far his worst mark of the season. So I just think he had an off game. If he had had a normal game, they probably would have put up a lot of points against the Ravens, the Steelers. And I personally think it was more on the Mar Jackson than, than the Steelers. I can't give you a stat to say that I'm right. Just that's my interpretation. He had some plays to make and he didn't make them.

But what about Derek Henry? Derek Henry or chase Brown rest of season? I'm still going to go Henry. It's full. Even with the eye? Oh, with the bot. Oh yeah, cuz bangles have a bye this week Okay, nice Yeah, no henry has scored fewer than 15 fantasy points in in ppr and four of his last five games I came into this day side note knowing I was having a bad hair day boys But yes, you know how you know it for sure. It's bad. Oh, it's bad

I see it, you know, you know for sure when you see one comment or say stands What about this is it painted on is he Carlos boozer in here Fine there you when you put when you ran it back No, no, I need to I need a haircut again. It's coming to that point again. What a comment It was a great comment. Good job. I am crediting the defense. Raj Raj. I am. Why don't you listen to the words I say? I am crediting the defense.

I said the Steelers own him. What is with you, Internet trolls? Like you just live for this stuff and congratulations. You got under my skin. I went 55 minutes ignoring this guy. Yes, I'm crediting the D. They did a great job, but it go, you go watch the tape, bud.

Look at his pants. Nobody gets under Adam's skin quite like Rod. He's a jerk. The guy is really good at it. Every day he just gets on me every day. Wow, you just call him a jerk? He is, he knows he's a jerk. He's not telling him anything he doesn't know.

But listen, go watch it. I invite anyone go watch if you can filter it out. I don't know if you can. 15 plus an area yard pass temps for Lamar Jackson. He really struggled. He just he was just way off on a lot of them. And then there was the Zay Flowers drop. But the plays were there to be made.

I said in my opinion, that was more on the more Jackson than Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh still did obviously a very good job because I said 6.1 yards per play for the Ravens. That's the most against Pittsburgh, but that's also well under the state average seven yards per play for the season, which is the most in football. So obviously, Pittsburgh did a very good job. The little bit of context there you it troll. All right. We are out of here. The jerk store called Raj. They are running out of you. Yeah, I agree. They are. Um, okay. So, uh, anyway, we're done for the day. Thank you all, um, for listening and watching. And we will talk to you tomorrow with the waiver. It should be actually pretty interesting. Waiver wire show. Yeah. You're

gonna need a lot of help. Hopefully you got ahead of the game for Jacob and Dan and we will talk to you tomorrow with the Waverwire. It should be actually a pretty interesting Waverwire show. Yeah. You're gonna need a lot of help. Hopefully you got ahead of the game. For Jacob and Dan and Thomas, I'm Adam. Keep from L. We will talk to you tomorrow.