Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Colts, Deebo, Buy Low (11/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 14, 2022

Recapping the Chargers-49ers game (2:40), do the 49ers have too many mouths to feed? Do we just have to sit Justin Herbert until he gets his best wide receivers back? Who is RB1 rest of season (6:40)? ... News and notes (9:50) and some advanced stats (12:10) on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Watson (13:45), CeeDee Lamb, Treylon Burks (22:22), Ken Walker, Jeff Wilson and more ... Four Big Topics! Are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady back (28:40)? Should you buy low on Deebo Samuel (34:10)? What do we make of Jonathan Taylor and the Colts offense (41:30)? How should you manage your roster if you are planning ahead for the Fantasy playoffs (48:22)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline

at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply.

Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. This Monday afternoon, we are going beyond the box score on Fantasy Football Today. Adam Azer, Jacob Gibbs, Dan Schneier. We've got advanced stats from Simple People. And it is Week 10, wrapping up Week 10 tonight. And how about that? The Giants and the Chiefs have the same record. Would you believe it?

Two 7-2 squads. Pretty crazy stuff. Vikings better. Eagles better. Anyone else better? I don't think so. I think that's it now for 7-2 with the Bills losing. Do the Dolphins have three losses on those non-two games?

Seven and three. Okay. Yep. Seven and three. So there are four teams with two or fewer losses. Chiefs, Giants, Eagles, and Vikings. By the way, has anybody talked about the Eagles going undefeated? Have you seen their schedule?

I think they're going to go undefeated. They still have the... No, they've played their Vikings game. Yeah, they played the Cowboys one more time in Dallas. That one will be a possible loss. Giants twice. That's 2-0. Okay. Washington, Colts, Packers, Titans, Bears, Saints. that one will be a possible loss Giants twice that's 2-0 okay Washington

Colts Packers Titans Bears Saints are the other games they're probably winning all those games maybe Packers and Titans undefeated all right now listen today's a big day for Jacob Gibbs because I don't know I don't know what they're going to talk about on the show I don't know what Dan and Jacob are going to talk about

but I know that two of Jacob's favorite things got married and that was Kadarius, Tony and the chiefs. And I'm almost positive that you're going to have some advanced that on Kadarius, Tony, am I right or wrong on that? I actually haven't gotten to the chiefs yet, but I'm going to right now and see if I can find his target per outrun rate. You were going to salivate on the microphone. It's going to be disgusting. Let's talk about the 49ers and the Chargers first. We do have our big topics today, and four big topics,

because we're too long-winded for five big topics. One of them is going to be Debo Samuel. So when we talk about last night's game, we won't talk too much about Debo. Rogers and Brady, are they back? Jonathan Taylor and Matt Ryan, are they back? What does it mean that Matt Ryan is back? Should we buy low on Debo Samuel? And we are doing the win now versus playoff prep roster moves. Okay, let's talk about last night's game now. Dan, San Francisco 22, Chargers 16, a fascinating game for the 49ers.

Elijah Mitchell, more carries than McCaffrey. Another bad game for Debo. A terrible game for Kittle. Ayuk dropped a touchdown, but he's got four straight games with 80 or more yards. What do you think about the Niners? Yeah, I thought it was really interesting to see how they countered what the Chargers were doing. It was a nice chess match. I know they talked about it a bit on the broadcast.

Brandon Staley, obviously, former Rams coordinator, has played against Shanahan, has coached against him. There was a chess match. I know they talked about it a bit on the broadcast. Brandon Staley, obviously, former Rams coordinator, has played against Shanahan, has coached against him. There was a chess match going all game. But the Chargers said, screw this. We're putting six guys on the line. A lot of the snaps, which means it's really hard to run. And what did the Niners do? They tried some bubble screens.

They tried to get the pass game going early. It didn't work. And so they had to eventually resort back to the run game. And that's when we saw a big lean on Elijah Mitchell that we were not expecting in that run game. McCaffrey still played, I believe a hundred percent of the long distance third downs. He was, they were mixed and matched in the red zone. I know the one that stands out is the end of the game, red zone attempt that Mitchell got, but McCaffrey had his fair share there. I just feel like it's going to be a lot more of what we expect here. It's hard

to predict which of these playmakers are going to get going on a weekly basis with the exception of maybe McCaffrey. And even in the past game, once Grapple got it going, it feels like for some reason he has a much better connection with Brandon Ayuk than Debo Samuel right now. Some of his throws to Samuel were wide or over his head on some of those deep crossers. On the flip side, Ayuk, he had a really nice connection going with Ayuk, connected on some big plays there. So as of now, I think it's similar to what we discussed either last week or the week before it's hard to trust anyone on a weekly basis to be consistent producer outside of maybe mcafree and maybe now elijah mitchell you can move into that mix oh i know i'm 66 percent rostered and he really might have a role um we'll get a lot more into Debo in the passing game, I guess a little bit later.

But, you know, I've compared Debo Samuel to Chris Olave just in terms of value rest of season, where I think they're both going to be number two guys, but not necessarily must starts. I wish they would just go back to Jameis, but what do you think? Do you think Debo is better, worse than Olave rest of season? And by the way,

he's not a top 20 wide receiver per game, so who would you rather have, Jacob? Olave or Debo? I would rather have Olave. The schedule is kind of tough for him coming up, and he continues to not produce on these underlying metrics that suggest that he's going to produce a top 12, top 15 guy.

So I get it if you want the more proven thing in Debo, but I think the underlying rates that we have on both players are significantly more encouraging for Alave than Debo at this point. Oh, wow. Okay, more on those rates later. Let's talk about the Chargers. Jacob, anything jump out at you from the Chargers' perspective

is now two straight games with 14 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, which is just a real shame. Yeah, that's tough. Yeah, they need their guys back. They need Mike Williams. Right now the offense is just funneling through short targets. There's nobody that can get open down the field. Josh Palmer kind of came.

This is a tough matchup for him. So for fantasy purposes, it's basically just Eckler at this point. He's just getting insane target load. Makes him basically the safest running back in fantasy. But yeah, Palmer proved... He went nuts against Atlanta, and then he faced a tougher matchup here. I think this is probably who he's going to be

if he's forcing the wide receiver one role. Somebody who's going to be pretty inconsistent. Yeah, I'll start him this week if Allen and Williams are out again against the Chiefs. Because he's getting, you know, this is his fifth game with eight or more targets, and it's the first time he didn't come through

for at least 13 PPR fantasy points. So it was a bad game for Palmer, but the Chiefs should be a pretty good matchup for him. And I think the Gerald Everett injury really changed this game. I feel like the Chargers probably would have won the game. I mean, that's kind of a reach, but if Everett didn't get hurt in the first half, but their offenses really went into shambles when they lost him.

So hopefully he gets back out there pretty soon. All right. That's basically it for that game. Well, I guess I just like, is Christian McCaffrey, who's RB1 rest of season? That's a great question. It seems like Eckler would be my choice i think i would lean barkley yeah that's one of those why not adam adam is so down on the giants he's so down on the giants but

also barkley who's just been consistent week after week he has been but did he get to 20 points last week he did right yeah three that was his first 20-point game since week three, where you had Derrick Henry. Yeah, but a lot of those were consistent 16-16. He's a top-five guy. I just don't think he's number one. He doesn't have the boom weeks like the other guys do. What happens when the Giants start losing? Are they going to throw the ball to Barkley

enough? They're definitely not going to run the ball 35 times. The schedule's going to get a lot harder. He wouldn't be my RB1. Eckler would be in PPR. No, you know, like, McCaffrey... McCaffrey had an... I know it wasn't an amazing game, but, like, this is a bad game for McCaffrey, and he scored

17 points or something like that. But it was buoyed by a touchdown, which is not to say he won't get more of those in position, but, I mean, it's hard for me to put somebody who's not playing anywhere near 80-90% of the snaps at RB1. Like we know Barkley, Eckler, Henry are on the field for 90 percent of the snaps or more. It's a tough one.

I'm even willing to go unorthodox with some of the players. Like I even think Kenneth Walker has a case to be made. He could be in the RB1 conversation rest of season, especially after what we saw from the target share standpoint and from the fact that he's being used now on all these passing downs. And they finally translated this game at least to a really big game. I'll have a little bit more on that later, but he's somebody who I'm definitely buying high on. Does anybody think Jonathan Taylor belongs in this discussion?

His rates were really good this week, too. Snap rates were out in Bob Morant's hall were way up. Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Ramondre Stevenson. Yeah, this is a fine... I don't know if there's a clear-cut number one. I think they would basically have established that. It is interesting that we're at this point in the season,

though, week 11, and we don't have a clear-cut RB1. I feel like that's not common. Or at least, we not only have clear-cut RB1, we don't even have a clear tiercut RB1. I feel like that's not common. Or at least, we not only have clear-cut RB1, we don't even have a clear tier of two or three backs that we're definitely buying as the best the rest of the season. I can't remember the last time that's happened. I think it's a little

unfair to Austin Eckler, because he is averaging four more PPR fantasy points than any other running back. So in full PPR, I do think he deserves the top spot. Okay. We will move on, give you some news and notes update john cooper cup and leonard fournette and a few others just want to let you know about our merchandise our fft shirts mugs sweatpants pint glasses hats water bottles and much more if you

want to rep fantasy football today go go to the CBS Sports Store, the Fantasy Football Today section. You can just Google it, CBS Sports Fantasy Football Today Store, and you'll find it, or Bing it, Jeeves it, as Stan would say. We got a code for you. Use the code FANTASYFOOTBALL20 at checkout. FANTASYFOOTBALL20 for 20% off your order. Again, that's FANTASYFOOTBALL20. If you want to go to the store, there's a link in the episode description.

But the code is FANTASYFOOTBALL20. News and notes. Cooper Cup left with the ankle injury. They think they dodged a bullet. We'll hopefully get more information soon. He could miss some time, but it doesn't look like a season end or anything like that for Cooper Cup. Don't know about Khalil Herbert.

Leonard Fournette could be back after the bye. Not a guarantee, but he could be back after the bye. Deshaun Watson can practice this week. He can play in two weeks or week 13. Baker Mayfield's going to start this week with PJ Walker having a high ankle sprain. Good or bad for DJ Moore at

Baltimore? Bad. Yeah, definitely bad. Aaron Rodgers or some re-aggravate that thumb. We'll talk more about him later. He obviously stayed in the game, but it is something that we should keep in mind before we fully buy into Aaron Rodgers. Zach Ertz left. He's going to miss some multiple weeks. Gerald Everett

left for the Grenadiers. Actually, well, luckily, TJ Hawkinson came back, but it was not a good week for tight ends because Ertz left, Everett left, and Cole Komet left as well. Cole Komet left very late, and I did not see an update on him. Tough day for Jacob as Jerry Judy left almost immediately in that game. And the Broncos

left with them, basically. Michael Gallup left and came back. Let's see. There's a lot of leaving and coming back. Juju Smith-Schuster obviously has the concussion. Some big defensive stuff. I talked about a couple of these yesterday. Buffalo linebacker Tremaine Edmonds left with a groin injury. Carolina cornerback Dante Jackson's out for this season.

That's a big deal for them. Zach Cunningham, starting linebacker for the Titans. He's on IR. Denver got beat up on the offensive line. Right tackle tackle Billy Turner center Graham Glasgow who's their second string center they both left with injuries the Dolphins lost Emmanuel Ogba

defensive end for the season luckily they have Bradley Chubb but it doesn't help their defense Minnesota had a couple of injuries they had a fill in starter Caleb Evans he left with a concussion and left tackle Christian Darasaw was evaluated for a concussion in the fourth quarter. They've got the Cowboys. Big game coming

up this week. Minnesota hosting Dallas. New Orleans lost its left tackle. James Hurts to a concussion. Dallas cornerback Anthony Brown left in the second quarter. He had a concussion. Oh, this is a big one. DJ Reeder for the Bengals. He has been a big deal for their run defense. He's missed

a lot of time, but he's designated to return from IR, and he might play this week at Pittsburgh. And Caleb Farley, Titans cornerback, they cannot afford any more secondary injuries. He could miss time with a disc injury. Let's get some stats here, some of your favorite stats. Jacob, what do you got? Yeah, let's go back to him on our same brand.

We hit on him last week. Since returning three weeks ago as a 35 target share 42 area yardage share um and in the two games since the tj hawkinson trade those rates are at 41 and 60 um been targeted on 45 of his first down routes um over the past two weeks um it's really like no one is getting this type of target volume tyree kill is really the only one um and i think if detroit's past volume increases even close to what we saw earlier in the year i know they're really leaning on jamal williams a little bit different version of the offense than we saw earlier and their defense is playing a little bit better um and

those all you know could sustain but like if they do increase at all i think he has potential to be a top five guy and even if it if the offense doesn't change at all just with these rates i think if he gets better luck on touchdowns he has potential to be a top eight top 10 guy um and so and there's some pretty positive matchups still remaining for him so i think he's somebody to really try to go and get um because he still hasn't had you know the ceiling game since he's returned um he hasn't had the explosive game like we saw earlier in the year. Don't sell him short. He, cause he had, you called, he called him a buy low last week. St.

Brown had 10 catches for 119 yards on only 11 on 11 targets, got 10 of them. So I think it was a pretty damn good call. He had a 22 point PPR game, but yeah, even more could be coming if he can score, which he hasn't done since week two. No. What else do you have? Somebody who did score christian watson holy crap um he dropped his

first target and i was just like here we go i think he dropped his first two targets actually he dropped his first target the second one was like a contested catch he didn't come down with it i'm like he's not it's over like this is just how it goes like he gets a chance and then there rogers is gonna ignore him the rest of the game but that is not what happened at all um he's had a 42 percent target share um only amara st brown had a higher target share this week 74 percent area to share which was obviously the highest of any player um was involved on 21 of 23 routes obviously had the huge production as well so like all the underlying data is there he's an incredibly talented prospect um and rogers is playing pretty well we're going to get to that more later but especially on the deep balls like he's looked really good and this seems like a great fit

so like i don't it it feels like an overreaction but like it's watson like a top 24 top 30 guy at this point going forward i've said it so many times that people probably get tired of it, but you know, the big story here was that Trayvon Diggs shadowed Alan Lazard and that really took him out of the game. Lazard had three catches. And then his biggest play that set up the game winning field goal, Diggs wasn't on him and he schooled whoever was guarding him. So I think that's a big deal.

And I think Lazard is still the best wide receiver on the team. But, you know, I also said this, like, man, I felt the same way about Russell Wilson. This is not going to happen with him, but why can't we get two good wide receivers on the Packers? You know, why can't they both be good?

I'm not, I have a little trouble buying into Lazard or sorry to Watson when his performance is, you know, anybody who relies that much on the deep ball, if Gabe Davis can't be a consistent fantasy contributor, I'm not sure Watson can. Yeah, I don't know if I would ever expect him to be consistent. But I think the volume could be there. I mean, Dubs had really pretty solid

and they're letting volume rates. He just wasn't producing very efficiently with them. And if Watson is a better player, he could be fantasy viable for sure. I think they could have two fantasy viable receivers. For me, this is a big moment, at least for my season. We're in week 11. There isn't much on the waiver wire left. I am going to allocate a lot of my budget toward Christian Watson. This doesn't mean I think like Adam said, he's going to take over as Lazard. It doesn't mean I'm discounting the fact that he had the easier matchup or anything like that. I don't really

see a consistent path for him, but at the same time, just to have that explosiveness, you have to, you have to like with what's left on the wire this week, we're taught at this stage of the season without any major injuries. We're talking about players who are not drafted anywhere near where Watson is. He's a player whose talent I really like coming out of North Dakota state. I liked how they utilized him on earlier in the season. The Packers tried to do this too, on some of those like jet sweeps and runs around the edge, but now they're kind of utilizing him as more of the deep ball threat and that's what he did well at north dakota state just didn't get a lot of targets there so the drops obviously they were an issue early in the season but if he can start to build

down that rapport and like jacob said the numbers were there for dobbs and the production wasn't there but the actual underlying numbers were there maybe he's just a player who's more talented than dobbs can create more consistent vertical separation, which all are things that add up with his pre-draft profile. I mean, he was a four, three, five type 40 yard dash. And you saw the speed on tape. When you watch him at North Dakota state, I thought he belonged in the first round. He went just outside of it in the NFL draft. So when I see a talent like this with a quarterback, we know at least in the past has produced with wide receivers and can still throw the deep ball pretty damn well. I just see a prospect that I want to get my hands on in my fantasy leagues.

It might not be right away where we can just throw them in our lineups and expect good things. But at the same time, there is a path toward volume, as Jacob said, and that goes above and beyond what we're even expecting from, which are just the splash plays. 100 percent agree. Must add player just in case he takes off. Chris gave me an impossible task last night, and I'll give it to you now. Rank these four wide receivers. Let's say they're all available on your waiver wire.

Tony is the most rostered. He's about 65% rostered. Kadarius Tony, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Christian Watson, Paris Campbell. I don't remember what I said, but Campbell is certainly last. Tony, yeah, that's what I said. Tony, Watson, Peoples Jones,

Campbell is how I'd go. I really think I would go Watson, Tony, Peoples Jones, Campbell because there's just so much. What we need in fantasy are two things. we need talent to match up with volume and i don't see that really matching up anywhere else but with christian watson that's not to say it will happen but we know he's a great talent he's separated like crazy

in his data at north dakota state and he's just an absolute he's a long athlete with a lot of speed and he's the only one in that group who i think has any potential to actually get you know six seven eight ten targets it's not going to happen right away maybe but he has a at least a path toward volume who of those other receivers where's the path toward volume i guess the closest thing might be like people's jones no well no i think it's campbell but campbell i think we had we just did fft it was on fft the video this afternoon. And Jamie, they had a whole list of wide receivers, like two slates of wide receivers to add the guys we just mentioned. Marquez Valdez Scanling, obviously Juju's out and Hardman's out right now. I don't know when he's coming back. And there were some other players, Darius Slayton. And I looked at the list and I said, you know,

the way Matt Ryan is playing, he still came back to the same exact thing. Lowest 5.8 yards per pass attempt in the air, in the air, right? Like short stuff after short, after short. Paris Campbell has 18 or more PPR fantasy points in three straight games with Matt Ryan. He scored in all of them.

So if you take away the touchdowns, it's 12 or more PPR fantasy points in three straight games with Matt Ryan. I feel like he has the highest floor of all of these guys in full PPR, but I also think he has the lowest ceiling. Yep, I agree with that. I don't expect him to score. Just to clarify, Paris Campbell's average depth of target was 3.3 yards this week.

That's why we bring up Matt Ryan being back being so important because he's just running short routes. Yeah, like Alec Pierce, terrible fit for Matt Ryan, and Paris Campbell is a great fit for Matt Ryan, but you're not going to win the league with Paris Campbell. That's kind of the take I have. You might win the league with Christian Watson. Maybe you could do it, Tony, but I think there's just too much competition there.

Let me just put some numbers behind the film mumbo-jumbo I threw out there a few minutes ago. So Christian Watson, height 94th percentile. Broad jump, 98th percentile among all wide receivers. And the broad jump and the vertical show off explosion vertical jump 84th percentile then a 91st percentile 40 yard dash of 436 with a 97th percentile 10 yard split which shows off quickness. So he's got quickness with the best of them. He's got deep speed with the best of them. He can jump with the best of them. He has got explosive traits. That's the broad jump with the best of them.

And he has the height. So it's like, I don't know. He can jump with the best of them. He has got explosive traits. That's the broad jump with the best of them. And he has the height. So it's like, I don't know. And the hand size is 91st percentile too, even though the drops have been an issue for him. So just to, Jacob's laughing over there. I don't know what he's laughing at, but just to put some numbers behind the kind of mumbo jumbo.

It's just like, yeah, everything is 99th percentile. He's a freak. He's made in a lab. Like, yeah. I was hoping you were laughing at Dan about something that we could all share in, but. But it's true. I mean mean this guy is an absolute freak athlete with aaron rogers with no one really to take away volume if he proves he deserves the volume that to me screams potential league winner the rest of them just don't he i'm just laughing because like he's the prototype for fantasy analysts to just sit over here and get super super you know what i. You know what I mean? Right. Yeah, totally. Alright, so

listen, hit the like button if you're watching on YouTube right now, because if we get to 100 likes, we're going to give away a Paramount Plus free month subscription to Paramount Plus. It's a pretty awesome thing to get here, so hit that like button, and once we get to 100, we'll give away some subscriptions here. Okay, any more

stuff? Why don't we go to you, Dan? Jacob, you can finish up. Finish up, Jacob. Yeah, two quick ones. C.D. Lamb is someone more, uh, why don't we go to you, Dan? You got it. Or yeah, Jacob, you can finish up, finish up Jacob. Yeah. Two quick ones. Um, CD lamb is someone we've mentioned all year as having just unbelievable underlying rates. He's first in the NFL and target chair. He's fourth in area artichoke on the year. And we finally saw the ceiling game. This was the highest output he's had in his entire career, 38 PPR points. Uh, we've been waiting for it, wondering if it was ever going to come. And it finally did. Um, and I think this is possible for him on a week to week basis with the volume that he's seeing. And then the other one is Trey McBride ran around on 32 of 40 dropbacks with Zach Ertz out.

He's not drawn targets at a high rate at all at the NFL level in the regular season or in the preseason, which is weird because at the collegiate level, he drew targets at a higher rate than Kyle Pitts. He was extremely good. And so he's someone to keep an eye on. Like you mentioned, a lot of Titans got hurt this week. Um, and he ran around on almost every drop back after or it's went down. Okay. Dan, you're up a few more players to keep an eye on. Watson was one of the low end wide receivers. I wanted to bring up kind of a waiver wire potential or backend roster right now, if you have him rostered, but another guy who we talked about stashing that's we, Chris and I on last Friday's stash show for FFT and five was Traylon Burks.

And I think this is a great time to stash him now because he didn't have a good box score game. So a lot of people will be off the scent. They might even drop him, but Traylon Burks had a 75% route participation in his first game back off IR and commanded nearly a 20% target share. I think it was 18%. It finished as so. Yeah, it was 18% it finished as. So yeah, it didn't happen yet for him.

But as that passing game gets a little bit better, gets a little more in sync with Ryan Tannehill back and practicing every week. And Traylon Burks himself building more of a rapport with Tannehill. There is potential blow up for Burks down the stretch. And so I really think he's somebody you should target as a stash right now. Somebody who's not going to be maybe as much of a league winner as a Christian Watson, potentially just because he's not in an offense that I think can get that same level from a passing volume standpoint. But at the same time, we saw what AJ Brown can do with a very funneled role in that Titans offense in the past. And we know trail on Brooks, an excellent athlete and a great talent. He was a first round pick. So I

think he's somebody worth investing in a similar player to that for me that I'm going to probably invest in this week. And I know he's not on every waiver wire. I don't have the roster percentages up right now, but I saw he was, but he's been dropped and available in some leagues. If you are desperate for tight end and you don't want to go the route Jacob mentioned, which I think is a good route to you can consider Pat Fryer move because we heard all last week, Mike Tomlin kind of said it, look, we don't really think anything's going to change too much after trading trace Clay, uh, chase Claypool Tomlin kind of said it. Look, we don't really think anything's going to change too much after trading Chase Claypool. We kind of feel like we already have his replacement on the roster

in Pat Frymuth. And what happened? Well, his first game without Claypool in the lineup, Frymuth had a 27% target share, which is a wild number for a tight end. That was coming in. He came in with a 23% target share. These are not target share numbers you see most for a lot of these backend tight ends. And that to me,

volume alone can probably scream his way into the top 12 there. So Pat Fryer, Muth of the Steelers is another player like Berks that I'm adding into leagues. If he's more of a bylaw, cause he's 87% rostered. Yep. But that's sorry.

So no, that's all right. I mean, that's a good call. Pat Fryer is more roster than I thought. His underlying data has been really, really exciting all year long. It's been disrupted by injuries and a few things that have kind of slowed his momentum. One thing that stood out about Frymuth is he's been like the leader in Pittsburgh target share on first downs when he's been on the field,

which is bizarre and just indicates that they want to get in the ball. And I think with Chase Claypool gone, he does fit the short yardage role that they've leaned on to convert on first downs. I think he's probably going to... I've been ranking him as a top eight, top six tight end when he's healthy, good to go. Anything else, Dan? Yeah, just something I touched on a little bit earlier, guys.

Kenneth Walker, to me, is one of the biggest screaming buy highs right now. What I was worried about with Walker when he first got introduced into this role after the injury to Rashad Penny was, would Homer take away a lot of these key snaps that we don't want him taking away? For example, when they're trailing or when they're in the two-minute offense or when they're going to no huddle and tempo, are they just going to throw in Homer and is Walker going to be that early down hammer? But it's clear that the Seahawks know that they're at their best when Walker is on the field and any of these downs that are giving him a chance to a little bit of like a trial by fire, right? He had a 24% target share in week 10 is highest of the season.

Um, that was an excellent thing to see. We most importantly, again, I mean, look, Homer still being used on some of those like long down distance, like we saw with McCaffrey last night versus, um, Mitchell, But as far as just keeping Walker involved in some of the no huddle and some of the two-minute stuff, we're seeing that. And more importantly, we're seeing the target start to funnel his way. And that gives him so much higher of a floor to go along with the ceiling. So he's someone I would definitely

buy high on right now, Kenneth Walker. All right. Jeff Wilson played 42 snaps. Raheem Mostert played 19. Yep. Tony Pollard played 72 snaps. A week after their running backs coach was like, well, he should play about 30 snaps. He played 72 snaps, Tony Pollard.

So that was awesome. Melvin Gordon played 43 snaps. Latavius Murray, 25 snaps. Chase Edmonds, 15. Gordon also played most of the third downs. But does it really matter? I don't know. James Conner played 96% of the snaps and had a very, very

good game from a fantasy standpoint. Our YouTube poll right now. By the way, hit like. Hit like. YouTube poll. Who is the top waiver wire pickup this week? Christian Watson, Cole Komet, Kadarius Tony, or other. Christian Watson, 48% of the

vote. Kadarius Tony, 32%. Cole Komet, 10. Other, 10. Christian Watson is leading. When we come back, we're giving away a Paramount Plus month subscription, a free month of Paramount Plus. You can watch Yellowstone on there. You can watch live sports

on there. You can watch Fantasy Football Today on there. You can watch, I like the Smithsonian channel and the documentaries are great. It is an awesome product. I highly recommend it. You can watch the Beavis and Butthead movie on Paramount+. Alright, we'll give one away when we come back

on Fantasy Football Today. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report

welcome back who wants a free month of paramount blues comment your twitter handle in our chat and thomas schaefer our producer will hit you up on twitter and give you some goodies it's time for four big topics our first one is from Eric Patrick, our Hall of Fame. Don't laugh at it every time, Jake. You smile. You used the joke a thousand times. I was laughing because I was wondering

if he sees a question from someone named Eric, it's an auto choice. He's just going to choose it. No, no, no. He's like a robot. You guarantee you're going to get it from him. It was funny for me the first few times I wasn't used to it.

Now, let's mix it up a little bit, Adam. Absolutely not. It's a staple. It is the thing that I do. I'm kidding. I love it. Eric Patrick wants to know, are Hall of Fame quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady back?

What do you think, Dan? Party pooper over there? No, I was actually just joking. I actually love you, Eric. But as far as the question goes, I feel torn on this for a lot of reasons. I like that Rodgers was able to do this against a defense that's been so successful all season long. The Dallas Cowboys, arguably one of the best, if not best, events in the NFL. But I also wonder how much of this success was tied to those big plays, which are not going to be every week.

I'm not sure they're going to be every week. I think the plus side of the Aaron Rogers being back debate would be that Christian Watson, if he emerges how he could emerge from a talent standpoint, we just went over what kind of skills that he has. And Rogers does then have like an elite wide receiver, one type, not to say he'll be elite already and he's not going to be Devante Adams, but just somebody who he can rely on for big plays, but also as like a high volume target that leads me to believe Rogers could be back in the top 12. I don't see too much of a ceiling though, without a rushing floor on the flip side, Brady also no rushing floor, but somebody who you saw this week, at least I thought I'm curious to get your take out of him. Cause we did discuss this like at length the last two weeks, I thought Godwin was back a little bit and looked a lot smoother and looked a lot more explosive in his routes this week

i thought that was a big help for tom brady in that passing offense uh so yeah i mean ultimately i think these guys can settle into the back end of the qb1 range i don't really see too much more of a ceiling than that i don't have any comments on godwin i didn't watch the tape or anything watching the game i don't know there was like one catch. I didn't watch the tape or anything. Watching the game, I don't know. There was one catch where he made it. That was cool. That was good. It's kind of interesting with Brady because are they going to

be like what they were in the first two weeks of the season when they were very run heavy and their defense was playing great? Their defense got healthier a couple weeks ago and it's been much, much better the last two weeks. That's going to limit the upside for Tom Brady. It's kind of counterintuitive. I want them to have a better weeks ago, and it's been much, much better the last two weeks, and that's going to limit the upside for Tom Brady. It's kind of counterintuitive. I want them to have a better run game,

but I don't want them to throw 29 times or whatever he threw in this game. Rogers had his best game, 24 fantasy points. He went to overtime. Keep that in mind. And the other thing about the Cowboys is, yes, they've been a great defense, but a few weeks ago they lost Jordan Lewis, starting cornerback, and then they got shredded by the Bears and now kind of shredded by Rodgers. And in this game, they lost Anthony Brown,

a guy who plays about 100% of the snaps when he's healthy. So they got Trayvon Diggs taking away Alan Lazard. It's possible they were just pretty bad at cornerback other than that, And they got exposed. So it's, that's actually more something to keep in mind when we look at matchups going forward against the Cowboys. I think exactly what you think back end starters,

because Rogers has had a decent amount of games with 20, right around 20 fantasy points. Got to 24 in this one, six point for passing touchdown leagues. Yeah. He's, I don't think the 300-yard games are coming. That's the thing. He hasn't had one yet. That's crazy.

So, 250 and two with few interceptions, that's realistic. Jacob? Yeah, I think from a fantasy standpoint, you guys nailed it. I'm a little bit worried about the predictions just because of the volume. What I looked at with these guys

in terms of them being back is their off target rate um so the percentage of their throws that were deemed off target i believe by pff um and both of them have improved as the year has gone on on the season uh rogers has the 13th lowest so he's at the 13th best off target rate whereas brady is 17th but over the past month rogers is the third lowest brady is the 12th lowest and they've both been better particularly on the deep ball brady has the third lowest off target rate on deep passes 15 plus air yards over the past month aaron rogers is sixth so they're both playing better or they're a little bit more accurate lately particularly on the deep ball

which is exciting with Christian Watson added. And that off-target number is really interesting with Brady because whenever Brady makes a bad throw, the whole social media world goes crazy. And that's why everybody thought he was bad or washed because of these bad throws that we saw. But his off-target rate this year, the last time I checked, was lower than it was last year

when he was an MVP candidate and the number two quarterback in fantasy. He just throws so much, and he's under the microscope. So when he makes a bad throw, people go crazy. But that's why I never bought into this narrative that he was washed up. He's got incredible arm strength. He makes throws that very few quarterbacks can make. He doesn't have that many off-target throws

when you look at it as a percentage of his total throws but i still think he needs godwin to be explosive and godwin is still not making any plays downfield or doing much after the catch but hey julio jones did you know i was gonna say wasn't that a nice play looking being healthy and looking healthy is making a big difference in that offense i think it can even if it's just one or two plays a game. It could make a big difference. Fingers crossed, Godwin comes back after the bye with a little bit more explosion. Julio stays healthy and all of a sudden

you've got guys that can make plays for him. Alright, let's go to our next topic here. What the hell is it? Is it the Jonathan Taylor one? I have the wrong... Debo. Oh, it's Debo! Should we buy a low on Debo? Is it the Jonathan Taylor one? I have the wrong. Oh, it's Debo. Should we buy a low on Debo? Uh,

Jacob, what do you think? No. Um, on plays where both guys have been lined up at wide receiver of the past calendar year, Brandon, I, you cause a higher target share area,

and his outscored Debo and fantasy. Um, I, I don't see a reason to buy low i'm pretty worried about him i've ranked him outside the top 20 for a couple weeks now um because the volume's not really there and if he loses the backfield chair as well um i just don't he doesn't project as a very high ceiling fantasy player um and i think it's going to be unpredictable week to week as well, uh, because there are so many miles to feed there. Um,

he did play 10% of his snaps in the backfield this week, which is down from a season long rate of 15%, but it's still something. He got four rushing attempts out of the backfield this week. Um, which surprised me with both CMC and Elijah Mitchell getting involved. Um, but yeah,

I'm, I'm pretty unenthused, uh, about deep over fantasy purposes right now. Dan, I feel the exact same way. I just don't see the path. Last year, the path was he was getting a lot of touches in the backfield.

He was getting a lot of touches in the passing game he was making. And this was always the problem with Debo leading into this year before they even acquired Christian McCaffrey. The problem was he had a lot of his production on explosive plays down the field last year, and that's always hard to predict year over year, and there's always some regression involved when you do score a lot of your points on big plays. He's just not making those plays anymore, at least not yet this season.

Again, there were a few plays this game where I thought he ran a nice deep over route, and Garoppolo just missed him off target. Garoppolo, again, we'll never know with Trey Lance now or her. I still think this offense is going to operate at a much worse level with Garoppolo, again, we'll never know with Trey Lance now or her. I still think this offense is going to operate at a much worse level with Garoppolo back there. To me, Garoppolo, independent of his supporting gas, is arguably one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. I don't watch many more quarterbacks who are more consistently off target

from a balanced base and a clean pocket than Jimmy Garoppolo is, while also adding nothing off target, nothing off platform, because he can't move and throw on the run or do anything. He had one decent throw on the run this game to, um, to what's his name there? McLeod. But other than that, I mean, he holds back Debo Samuel. I think he holds back the entire passing game. So without the volume, without the explosive plays, he just seems to me like somebody I wouldn't want to invest in at this point in fantasy. Yeah. I mean, I disagree so much with what you just said about, about being better with Trey Lance

just because Lance was going to run the ball so much. And even if Lance had been a better passer than Jimmy Garoppolo, there's no way he was going to average as many passing yards per game as Jimmy Garoppolo. And he probably wasn't going to throw. We don't know that for sure, though. I know it with certainty that he wouldn't have done that. Oh, you don't know that with certainty.

He played one and a half games. Look at Lamar Jackson. Look at Justin Fields. He wasn't going to be Kyler Murray. He's not a Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields type of player. They didn't draft him to be that type of player. He wasn't going to be Kyler. He was going to be a running quarterback.

I know for sure when the plays break down, he was going to offer more for Deebo Samuel because Deebo Samuel is a good player when the plays break down. I mean, maybe. But I just think on a pure, who do you think that 49ers play 17 games with Trey Lance, 17 games with Jimmy Garoppolo. They have better pure passing stats, yards and touchdowns with which one, with which guy?

I would, I would stick to my point. I still think it would be Trey Lance. I'm a big believer that that is a system based. It's just, it's a very, Jimmy Garoppolo's numbers are very system-based. We've seen in the past. That's not the argument. I'm just asking. But you're putting Trey Lance in that system, right? Yeah, I just don't think

he would have thrown nearly as much. He may have played better than him. That wasn't, that's not what I'm saying. Well, that I think is for sure. But no, but it's not because you're talking about Trey Lance. I don't even know why we're talking about this, but Trey Lance is a guy who had almost no experience in college and never showed that he was, that he was a good passer at the NFL level.

So it's still unknown. Of course, there's a floor. There's definitely a floor that's lower than Jimmy Garoppolo's. I just think you're too in a system. I just, I'm just going to, there's no sample size.

We'll find out next year because we will find out next year because Trey Lance will be there. I hope so. You will be. Mateo says, Adam versus out next year because Trey Lance will be their star. I hope so. Mateo says Adam versus Dan fantasy football boxing. I would get my butt kicked. I am not interested in that. I'm not a fighter

though. I would never be able to do it. We would both find a way to lose. It would be the worst boxing match. It would be so sad. There's just no scenario where I can imagine myself squaring up and punching you in the face, Adam. Thank you. Thank you, Dan. That's the nicest thing you've ever said to me. and punching you in the face, Adam. Thank you. Thank you, Dan. That's the nicest thing you've ever said to me. I'd like you too much to do that. It would just be so weird, but we both lose by default.

Let me ask you this though about Debo. It's kind of like an argument about who's better, Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo. You both lose by default. Why are you doing it? Let me ask you this though, because all of Debo's efficiency numbers are way down. He's got about a 4.5 ADOT, average depth of target, yet he has a pretty low catch rate. His yards per target, his yards per catch, his yards per carry, still very good, but a little bit down. So if you wanted to make the case for Debo Samuel, it's that he is underperforming. And if you could say it for Chris Godwin, you could make the case for Debo Samuel, it's that he is underperforming. And if you could say it for Chris Godwin,

you could definitely say it for Debo Samuel. If Debo gets seven targets, he should be doing much better than this. So that would be the case for him, Jacob. I don't know how you feel about that. I will say that you're comparing him to outlier data. The efficiency that we had prior to this year is one of the most efficient per touch players

that we've had in a long, long time. Why can't he be that, though? Maybe he can. I don't know. I'm just saying we don't know that that's actually the baseline. It could be possible that we're just seeing regression to a more normal version of what he is. Okay, his catch rate is pathetic, though. He's got a 4.9 ADOT,

and he's catching 56.7% of his targets. That makes no sense. that's a really good point yeah he should definitely be catching more passes every time he catches the ball he's a home run threat because for the third straight season at least going into week 10 debo samuel was leading all wide receivers in yak per catch so i think that's the optimistic side of this debate is that he should be doing better the pessimistic side i can't remember if i already said this or if i because i said it earlier today on hq they never throw the ball they've thrown the ball more than 30 times twice was the two weeks where they had terrible defense right and there's simply just not enough to go around when you throw mcafree

in the mix now right iuk's a factor kittle now elijah mitchell it's just too low volume that we're going to samuel are now going to mcafree right when he gets those design Iuk's a factor, Kittle, now Elijah Mitchell. It's just too low volume of the passing offense. Some of those touches that were going to Samuel are now going to McCaffrey, right? When he gets those design passes after the jet motion or that type of thing, like the orbit motion in the backfield. Those are designed, they used to be designed for Debo Samuel. Now some of those are going to McCaffrey.

Yeah. All right, well, so I think we can wrap it up. I think we're obviously not expecting to even approach second round value. No, I do think there's maybe a buy low of somebody who's really down on him. But okay. You said Olave earlier, Jacob, I'll give you another one. How about Lazard or Debo? Rest of season? Debo. Okay. Debo for me as well. Not high on Lazard, though. I'm high on Lazard, but Debo will be a little bit better. How about this? Last thing. Three games all of last year with fewer than 16 PPR fantasy points. Done that six times in eight games already this year.

Wow. This is from Jim Parsons. Oh, I'm sorry. I don't even think I said who that last one was from. No, it was from Eric Walsh. But this next one is from Jim Parsons. Oh, I'm sorry. I don't even think I said who that last one was from. No, it was from Eric Walsh. But this next one is from Jim. Matt Ryan and Jonathan Taylor are back. So glad I didn't trade Jonathan Taylor.

Jacob, what is your take on the Colts offense? Real quick, I just did look up Deebo Samuel's off target rate, and it's 14%, which is very high for someone with such a low average depth of target he's just outside the top 15 which is why i didn't know it off the top because i just tweeted that earlier today but most of the guys in the top 15 are downfield threats and his off target rate with jimmy garoppolo is 15 which is higher than with trey lance at 12 if that settles any friendly

arguments with you all right that's a tko for dan then uh jonathan taylor 83 percent route involvement rate in week 10 higher than any running back um the first game we've seen with nine lines out obviously deon jackson was out as well and that could impact it um but that is extremely encouraging i didn't realize that it could get that high um and matt ryan being back i I think, helps him. He's more likely to throw to the running back position. We also saw Indianapolis go with a lot more shotgun this week than with Sam Ellinger, which is a trend that we'd seen developing

prior with Matt Ryan under center. Their offensive plays was not as high as those games. I think they only had like 57, 59 offensive plays, something like that, but they still played with pretty quick pace. But their pass rate over expectation was one of the lowest in the league as well, which is when they're expected to pass, they weren't necessarily passing as much. So overall, I think it's really encouraging for Taylor. He's probably a top eight, top 12 guy with the potential to move in the top five

if these rates sustain. And then, yeah, it's really good for campbell and not good for alec peers who had had some really encouraging weeks um and was a better fit with um sam ellinger who throws down the field a lot more but i don't know michael pitman does this affect his value for you guys at all i think it's like the volume is going to be higher much higher with ryan well is it because when ryan was throwing the ball a ton, other than week one where they went to overtime, they ran like 90 plays.

A lot of it was without Jonathan Taylor. So I just wonder if they are going to be more committed to the run. He only threw 28 times last week. It's better for Pittman in a PPR perspective, but I'm just wondering,

is there going to be anything other than catches for him? And the other thing I'm wondering, Dan is, are there any worse teams in the NFL than the, than the Raiders? And are we, are we running the risk of overrating the Colts going forward?

Because the Raiders, not only are the Raiders bad, but they didn't have divine Diablo, their leading tackler. They didn't have Denzel Perryman. They didn't have Blake Martinez. They were so depleted at linebacker that this looked like an amazing opportunity and yeah you saw on that touchdown run they really could have used those guys

yeah i think there is we are running that risk for sure because on one side of it it's like okay the colts went back to matt ryan they changed offensive play colors they kind of changed some things up on offense i think in general which which could lead to a change rest of season. Or is it the matchup? Because it's such a good matchup. And that's what I worry about here. I lean toward more this was the matchup. And I haven't looked too deeply yet into the Colts' schedule.

That's something I should be doing now as we try to walk through this. I have it for you. They have the Eagles, Steelers, and Cowboys in their next three games and then a bye. Not good matchup. But the Eagles' runers, and Cowboys in their next three games and then a bye. Not good matchup. But the Eagles run defense is awful without Jordan Davis. It is bad without Davis for sure. That's probably their only good matchup.

But the problem with that is they have to, one, keep it – part of why this was capable is because the game script was kept on pace for the Colts so they could stick with their run game. I don't know if that will be the case against the Eagles. The Steelers are a much different defense with TJ Watt back. Dallas is a great defense. And then it's at Minnesota. The Chargers, Giants, Houston to wrap it up.

So two good matchups to wrap it up with Giants and Houston. So the fantasy playoffs looks pretty good. But as far as will they get there and be as consistent a scoring duo as they were in this game, Matt, Ryan, and Taylor, that I'm more skeptical about. I can already see. Heath is so in my head that I can already.

What did he do? I can already imagine the argument I'm going to get into with him on Wednesday because he said that Michael Pittman is not going to be what we drafted him to be, but I'm pretty sure he said he was going to be a must-start player. And my whole thing is like matt ryan stinks let's not forget that we just i'm not ready to just flip the switch and say michael pitman's going in my lineup i suppose it's easy enough to do in full ppr because i think you're going to have a high catch ceiling but are you going to get touchdowns i can't just do this whole touchdown regression

thing when i don't think matt ryan's going to throw a lot of touchdowns. I don't know, man. I hate buying into wide receivers with bad quarterbacks. It's a huge thing for me. You can sit here until the cows come home talking about Deontay Johnson's going to turn things around. I think we've more or less lost hope on that. What's the difference between him and Michael Pittman? I could get 12 PPR fantasy points from other players you know right i completely agree with you i can't i also can't find myself

buying into wide receivers the bad quarterbacks it's been my mo for a while in fantasy now it works at there are still some examples of like just you need so much volume though you need it to be on a team like like maybe like trying to think of a good example who's a great example even this year of a wide receiver consistently produced? I guess Olave would probably be one of the closest ones. St. Brown. St. Brown. St. Brown's not been very good. St. Brown's probably the best call.

The Colts, to me, are the Steelers from last year. The Steelers from last year. Lowest ADOTs, ton of volume in the passing game, potentially. We'll see how that works out going forward if they're trailing more. It's outside of full PPR leagues, it's a lot of empty production. Yep.

Hopefully, Pittman can overcome that. Jacob, do you think Michael Pittman's a must-start wide receiver? No. I'm curious how he'll come out of the projections now with Ryan back. When I've been projecting with Ellinger, he's been outside of the top 24 each week. Oh, yeah, for sure.

This definitely helps. It's one thing to be throwing a lot. It's another thing to be throwing a lot and have the lowest air yards in the NFL. It's kind of waste. It's just hard to have a big game. All right, last question. Oh, you should also know,

just because this is the type of show where we talked about this stuff, the Colts made a change at right guard. Will Freeze, I believe his name is, he started, and they took out one of the worst offensive linemen in football who's just been a train wreck for them.

And hopefully that can change things. Ryan saw his lowest pressure rate by far, 13.3% pressure rate. His previous low was 22.2%. However, he also got rid of the ball quicker than he did in any other game. Wandering Wanderer wants to know differences between a win now

and a playoff prep roster move. What is that? What exactly do you, like be a little bit more specific there. What's the difference? How should he know how he should know if he should be in either of those two modes? Maybe it's planning for...

If you know you're going to make the playoffs, this is a good time to consolidate. Try to make a two-for-one trade for the best player. You could sacrifice a little bit of bench depth. You could. Or you could say, well, I'm going to play it safe,

and if there's an injury, I don't want to be screwed. But one thing I said on HQ today, if you know you're going to make the playoffs, you could try to trade Raheem Mostert for DeAndre Swift. Or maybe even Najee Harris for DeAndre Swift or something like that. Yeah. And just take a shot on a guy who could. Or Jamar Chase is the guy to get, right?

For sure. Those types of moves. I don't know if you have anything to add. Yeah, I would say a couple things on my end that I would add. I saw Jacob, you wanted to get in. I'll turn it over in a second. A couple things on my end I would add. For starters, this is something I always do around this time of year.

Take a deep look into the fantasy playoff schedules for all of these players that are involved in trades. I've actually made trades on the service in the past, and I try to do this consistently, that look like a bad deal for me on the surface. And then if somebody asked me without looking at the schedules, well, who do you think won the deal? I would say the other side of it. But in the end, like a great example, this two years ago, I won a championship trading for David Montgomery. Remember his second, his final, his swing at the end, no one really liked him at the time. He was just kind of coming into it. I traded

a player who was much better than him at the time, but I saw the fantasy schedule and it paid off because all those bad matchups, all those bad defenses in the fantasy playoffs actually got even worse because of injuries and it made, and he blew up in the fantasy playoffs, David Montgomery. So really focus in on the schedule and see if you can make a trade where it looks on the surface, like you're losing, but in reality, you're mostly focused on the fantasy playoffs you're putting these few weeks ahead ahead of you behind it because that's my second point this isn't the nfl you know it's not like you really need to grind out that one seed because of the matchups that you're going to get in the playoffs you grind out that two seed and seeding matters once you get to the fantasy playoffs there are bye weeks but with the exception of the bye

weeks the matchups are pretty random at that point like it's not necessarily random you can look at it the schedule but the the team that finished six in the playoffs isn't always the six worst team going into the playoffs and i guess that could be said the same could be true about the nfl in some seasons but i just wouldn't focus too much on these final weeks if you're trending toward the playoffs and you're in a good spot i would focus more on those weeks 15 through 17 what are the schedule look what does the matchups look like for the players that you're planning to have? Yep, and I think the best... So I just want to clarify, I don't think

that necessarily DeAndre Swift is going to be a league winner, but if he can get healthy, it's possible. So if you can trade someone that you really just don't intend on using, that would be a good idea. I think one of the best guys to target is Justin Herbert. His playoff schedule is so good.

And if he can get just one of those guys back, and I'm pretty sure Mike Williams will be back. I don't know about Keenan Allen. He might come back this week, or they might say, we tried, we're shutting it down, like Michael Thomas. I don't know. But if he can get just one of those guys back, then he could really win you the league.

So take a look at things like that. You could always give up a player on a buy or trade for a player on a buy. That's, you know, this is what happened with Heath. He was 8-0. I was 3-5. I needed a win, and that's when I made the trade. I gave him McCaffrey.

No, it was McCaffrey. McCaffrey, McCaffrey. For Aaron Jones and Tom Brady. We'll see if I win that trade, and that's when I made the trade. I gave him McCaffrey for Aaron Jones and Tom Brady. We'll see if I win that trade, by the way. Aaron Jones, more points to McCaffrey this past week. But he got McCaffrey, who was on a buy, and set him up better for the future. So that's what you do if you know you're going to the playoffs. Yeah, that was a point I was going to bring up this week. Just look at teams that are on buys

and then see if they happen to be on fantasy teams that really need to win right now. Like if you can get Kenneth Walker after a tough yardage per carry game on buy, if his team really needs to win in fantasy, you might be able to trade for somebody like that. Or Christian Kirk is on a buy this week. Great. This is a great week to do it. You got the Dolphins, you got the Bucks, you got the Seahawks, for somebody like that, or Christian Kirk is on a bye this week. Great. This is a great week to do it.

You got the Dolphins, you got the Bucs, you got the Seahawks, and why do I always forget the fourth team on the bye? Another very good quarterback. Jaguars. Yeah, another very good team. Sort of. You've got a lot of talent on a bye. This is a great point, Jacob. This is the week to do it. Fournette on a bye, like after Rashad White looked really good,

definitely could be somebody you could get super low um another guy i wanted to mention was amari cooper um maybe wait until he plays buffalo this week because he might have back-to-back bad weeks um but he's got to shine watson coming back and he's got some pretty good matchups to close the year um and his his rates have been really really good all year um is there anybody you would sell? Like Dante Foreman came to mind, maybe. Is there anybody else that's a clear sell? A clear sell. That's like helping you now, but you're not.

Najee Harris would be my number one sell. Simply do not buy him at all. He had a 36-yard run where he broke a tackle about 15 yards downfield. He ran for another 20 or so. And that is what happens with the Saints. Their defensive backs are so bad at tackling. So he still, I think, stinks.

And I don't know. The team's been struggling all year. They had one game where they scored 20 points. Wow, I'm not going to buy into Najee Harris. And he had zero catches, by the way. That's the biggest factor with Najee. There's just no volume. He'll get two or three catches, but he's not going to get six.

You know? Those Roethlisberger check down dump offs are just not happening anymore. The raps aren't going in there. So yeah, he comes to mind. I don't know. Alright, I think we can wrap it up. Thanks, guys.

We have enough likes here. No, I don't think you earned another Paramount Plus subscription. That's OK. Hit that like button. Come on. Well, we'll drive.

We're not asking for much. We're going to give a lot away. So don't worry. There's plenty for Jacob and Dan and Thomas Schaefer. I'm Adam. Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.