Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Falcons-49ers, Chargers Offense, Travis Hunter, Bill, Rome Odunze (05/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: October 20, 2025Let's recap the Falcons-49ers game (4:00) because we're certain that Drake London managers are a little concerned. Is London significantly worse when Darnell Mooney is playing? Also, how incredible ...is Christian McCaffrey and are we buying low on George Kittle? ... News and notes (18:30) plus snap counts and other stats you need to know (22:40) about the Chiefs wide receivers, Travis Hunter and more ... Four Big Topics: Jacory Croskey-Merritt's struggles (34:05); How to approach the Chargers offense (46:00); Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Travis Hunter (51:45); Our level of concern for Rome Odunze (56:30) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
What a play!
Can you believe this?
It's a no idea.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
It's just going to go the distance.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
All right, we are recapping Sunday night football and we've got four big topics today.
Our thoughts on Romo Dunzee, Jacori, Cross,
Merit. The Chargers, man, like with a question, you know, what do we do with teams like the
charger? I don't know, but we're going to try to figure it out. And Travis Hunter, is he going
to be better than Brian Thomas Jr. rest of season? We'll also give you the snap counts and those
types of things that you need to know here on Beyond the Box score, advanced stats from simple
people. And we welcome me to fantasy football today, presented by BetMGM, make it legendary.
All right, what's up, Jacob Gibbs? How we doing? I'm good. So I saw the show, the show notes.
and I was like, man, I feel like we're skewed a little bit negative this week.
Like, why don't we talk about our own at Gadsdinner or something?
Like, there's some cool stuff to talk about.
And then I got in here before the show, and I started talking to these guys.
I'm like, oh, yeah, the freaking Giants game was so brutal.
You guys have to go through this, like, almost every other week, it seems like.
And so, yeah, I get it, and it's totally okay to be in this space.
I'm here with you guys.
I'm here for you.
I'm sorry.
Thank you.
first of all, the audience pick the topics, the four big comics, or audience chosen.
And within the Chargers conversation, we can talk about Arronday Gadsden.
And within the Brian Thomas Jr. conversation, we can rave about Travis Hunter.
But Dan and I are definitely, like, Dan's good, Dan's going to be wearing that hoodie for the next four or five days, no showers.
At minimum.
At minimum.
You know, there's a skit that Jacob and I love from Tim Robinson where he's asked to, like, do a basically like a,
it's like a sketch or what is it it's like a prank show and he's dressed up in like this
incredible gear he's heavy ass like Matt like face on and everything and it and he's
come on do the do the prank do the prank he's like and eventually he just goes I don't even want to
be around it yeah and that's kind of how I feel right now to be completely honest uh about the
situation I mean I just don't understand at this point what being a Giants fan is like and look
we had our Super Bowls and in my lifetime I got to watch two Super Bowls so I shouldn't be crying
about this. I should just understand that we sold our soul to the devil. But before the game,
Adam Azer texted me and said in a group chat with me and another Giants fan, he said, I've had a really
rough sports weekend. Can we at least just please get this thing? And we did. We dominated the Broncos
for all but six minutes of a football game and lost. Yeah. And gave up 33 points in a fourth quarter.
And by we, I mean the Giants. I don't play for the team. But that's where we're at right now. We're here
to talk fantasy football.
So that should be the end of the Giants, I hope.
That is it.
Okay.
Yeah, the Giants are done.
So let's talk to San Francisco and Atlanta.
And the Falcons defense, you know, pretty darn good again, but their offense couldn't hold up its end.
San Francisco 20, Atlanta 10.
I know we'll talk about Drake London.
He's obviously a hot topic and you're probably wondering, Drake London, is he just
not going to be nearly as good with Darnell Mooney?
We'll break that down for you.
I'm seeing a lot of comments in the chat about George Kittle just blocking all night.
It's not really true.
He ran a ton of routes.
He just didn't get targeted.
They didn't throw that much.
This is the first time that Mack Jones threw fewer than 39 passes.
He threw, what, 26 passes in this game?
Yeah.
So, Jacob, key fantasy takeaways from, oh, no, go ahead.
Take a drink.
I'll filibuster a little bit.
Jacob Gibbs.
Follow him at J.A. Gibbs underscore 23.
There he is.
Jacob.
Hold on.
What is this?
What is this?
I didn't even see this.
I haven't caught up on yesterday's show.
I didn't want to listen because I just felt like Jamie would be trolling you all
night. I didn't really want to deal with listening to that, honestly, in the moment.
But someone said this, Adam, please do the Dan impression from yesterday again. You did a good
Dan impression? I guess so. I don't remember what it was. It was just very in the moment.
Oh, man, I got to listen now. I mean, I'm way behind, but I got to listen.
All right, Jacob, what are our key fantasy takeaways from the Falcons 49ers game?
It was another troubling game. I think if you were like watching Pinnix in terms of
his ability to process, right? And so I just want to make note of that. So people,
have really brought up that Drake London, Darnel Mooney splits, which are exists, like over
five games I think it is now where, you know, he's had Mooney like on the field with Pinnock's
hasn't been so great compared to the games when he's, you know, Mooney's been off the field
with Pinnix and London has just gone nuts. So I dug into their like larger splits together.
They've run almost 600 routes together. And London's per route data is basically identical
with Mooney on the field
compared to when Mooney's off the field
it's a little bit better with Mooney off of the field
and then even with Pinnix
on the field too like all three of them on the field
together the per route data is still
basically the same and so I think that is relevant
because over a larger sample size it's probably
more likely to be
what bears out than like what
happened over like a few individual games
but
still like the Pinnix aspect
of all of it
is what has me concerned right
like this was a it was a great game by robert saw last night but like also it is a nineers defense that we expected to be reeling with all the injuries right and they had 10 points is that right um and it's like a struggle a lot from the qb there yeah i feel like most of what he's done this year has been off play action too set up by the run game and bjean i mean it's hard it's at times hard to like penix throws some at times he throws some of the best footballs in the game and at times though it doesn't look like it's coming out right too on some of the throws especially around the line of
image throws. And that just doesn't really touch on what Jacob's point was, which is the most
important factor. The processing pre-to-post snap just doesn't look like he sees the field all that
well to me. Well, he gets Miami next week, so hopefully he can bounce back 44% rostered 14.2 fantasy
points this week at San Francisco. Last week, he scored 16.6 fantasy points, which is bad,
but he was so close to having that second touchdown to Drake London right before halftime
against Buffalo. I thought he played pretty well in that game. And then Jake Matthews got hurt,
and he was horrible in the second half,
Matthews was able to play this week.
So it was just a bad game.
Here's a picture of a little screenshot of Darnel Mooney.
Look how wide open Darnel Mooney is here.
And you're wondering about the caption.
It says, how did you not see that ball?
Well, today my son, my kids didn't have school today.
So I let my son do the caption.
And he came up with, how do you not see that ball?
And then it's six, seven.
His son's doing six, seven stuff?
How old is your son?
He's seven.
I didn't think, I felt the six, seven thing was like a,
TikTok High School thing.
Everyone knows it, but I think the teachers had to tell the kids to stop saying it.
Why are your seven-year-old son is talking six-seven?
Not really.
I don't know.
Nobody knows what it means.
It's just being six-seven, but I put it in the capture there.
Oh, man.
But look how open Darnal-Muni is.
Darnal-Muni could have had a big chunk play there.
That was right at the end of the game.
Here's one.
Kendrick Bourne.
Look at Kendrick-Born, wide open.
Dude, I'm open.
And then he says, six-seven.
I love that your son did this.
This is amazing, actually.
So he's wide open.
Mac Jones
it was looking at him
like the whole time
that he just came off of him
there and Bourne
could have had a touchdown
there's just a couple of plays
that stood out
watching the All-22
but anyway, yeah
so just Jacob
so you looked at that
full Drake London
and Darnel Mooney
sample with Pennix
just this year
just this year
Drake London has a
a 21.3% target share
when Darnel Mooney is on the field
and 40% target share
when he's off the field
but I mean I think
in the last two games
So the game that, okay, I think it was week four.
Now, the first two games that he played with Mooney, he had a 19% target share, 19% and 19.5%.
The next game was 27.8%.
That's great.
The next game, it was 41% with Mooney on the field before Mooney got hurt, right?
So Mooney played most of the first half.
So it was 41% in that game.
And last night, his target share was what?
He had 10 targets on 38 pounds.
attempts. I mean, that's really good, too.
So that's three games in a row where London's
had a very good target share, not 40%,
but over 25%, when Darnal Mooney's been on
the field. So personally,
I think he's fine.
I don't think Darnel Mooney's going to be
the reason that London struggles.
They do throw a lot to pits now.
They didn't do that last year. They throw even more to
Bejan than they did last year. So these are
sort of issues, but
just a bad game. He had 10 targets last night,
you know. I'll take it.
I guess I'm trying to say I'd buy low on Drake London.
I still think he's a good player, like kind of a must start.
And the 49ers definitely played a lot more man defense, man coverage defense, than the
bills did against Michael Pennix.
I think that is something that people, I mean, if I'm defending Michael Pennix,
I'll probably look at what Robert Salah did with this, you know,
rag-tag group of reserve players to shut him down.
And I feel like I'll look at what the bills didn't do.
And I'll probably make my game plan based on that.
To me, that's how you play Michael Pennix.
You put everybody up on the line of scrimmage.
You play man.
I mean, they didn't do it all game.
They ran the ton of zone, too.
I think it was 36% man.
But playing a lot of cover one against Pennix seems to be the right play.
Am I missing something here with London guys?
I mean, he only has two games with more than 55 yards.
You know, he still is doing nothing three, three point four yards after catch per reception.
That's just that's just what he's going to be, it seems.
Am I overrating him?
I don't think so, right?
Like, Jacob, you don't feel like, I feel like an individual,
you're talking individual player-wise?
No, I'm talking about in fantasy.
I still consider him.
I think we were drafting again in fantasy.
He's a top 30 pick for sure, if not a second-round pick.
I don't think that he maybe has the upside that we thought he might,
because one, the defense is actually playing really well.
Right.
And then two, Pennix has been probably on the lower range of where we could have predicted.
And so those two things combined makes it where he has to really play.
play will. He has to do the yards after the catch stuff, and he has to pile up a lot of these
targets because, yeah, we need more volume overall for him to get there. Yeah, all right.
Let's go to the 49ers here. Kyle Pitts, by the way, is the number 12 tight end per game and full
PPR, number 17 per game, and non-PPR is coming off a very good game. He's on pace for
808 yards, 85 catches, 108 targets, so someone you can use. Yeah, Mack Jones wasn't great,
didn't need to do much because McCaffrey finally had a good running game.
I mean, he's been really struggling running the ball.
Yesterday, 24 carries, 129 yards, two touchdowns, plus seven catches.
He always gets to seven or eight targets, but it's usually on about 40 pass attempts.
This time it was on 26 pass attempts.
And Christian McCaffrey, guys, there are three running backs in the NFL right now,
averaging 24 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
Two of them played last night.
The other is Jonathan Taylor.
That is sensational.
I mean, that's high-end stuff.
The fact that he's doing this with a run game that has not blocked well until last night,
and maybe I'm hopeful that's a sign of things to come.
Having George Kittle back in the run game is certainly, certainly a plus for them.
He's one of the best run-blocking tight ends that I've ever really seen play the game.
And in addition to that, I think just getting a lot of the talent around on the offense,
it could mean like McCaffrey's due for maybe even more, quite honestly.
Like maybe the targets will come down, but the rushing success will come up.
This is a tweet from Field Yates that I just wanted to point out.
Christian McCaffrey's finishes amongst running back so far the season, third, fifth, sixth, eighth, fourth, seventh, first.
There's just no one like him in fantasy.
As Jacob and I kind of touched on, and you were on this train too, Adam, you were willing to take him third overall in the preseason.
He has the clearest path.
Like, he's the only player in all the fantasy that his path towards success is just simple.
It's one simple formula.
Don't get hurt.
Everything else is in play.
There's no questions about the situation.
He's playing through a bad run blocking team with injuries across the board to all.
of his offensive players and still scoring at this rate.
Yeah, this was super encouraging because like I said,
the Falcons have been shutting people down.
But this, like we finally saw,
when there's rushing efficiency,
you get 40 points.
I tweeted this out last week and it's like,
wow, Bijan Robinson is leading fantasy football and points per game
with only three rushing touchdowns,
which is insane, right?
He's getting there all with yard.
CMC was right there with him,
both at 25 points per game.
He only had four rushing touchdowns.
He had no rushing efficiency at all.
Three yards per carry.
and then finally we see it come together and it's like oh gosh yeah this can be 40 points any given
way by the way this this chart here is four point per passing touchdown or six I believe it's
six no way really because I'm pretty sure oh wow I could be wrong but I think it's four but it doesn't
matter I mean this is a cool graphic here of Bajon Robinson and Christian McCaffrey this is last week
you're saying yeah this is a week old yeah and and you know McCaffrey only even even better than
that so yeah so CMC's one now and
And you know what?
I think we'll save the conversation about what's going to happen to the passing game for another time.
Because if Pierceall is back next week, I think Kittle's going to be fine.
But, look, McCaffrey could just just kill everyone.
I mean, if he's going to have, he's not going to have this target.
I think his target share will come down when it's not Mac Jones, honestly.
Probably.
And Mac Jones, Mac Jones had a season high in time to throw, as in like the amount of time it took for him to throw the ball after the snap.
But little deceiving because he all.
also had a season high by far of pass attempts under two and a half seconds.
So he was getting rid of the ball very quickly. 61.5% of his passes, he got rid of it in
under two and a half seconds. That's the third highest rate this week in week seven in the NFL
behind Joe Flacco and Patrick Mahomes. He only threw one deep ball. It was dropped by DeMarcus
Robinson. For whatever reason, that's just what, they have a good pass rush to Falcons.
This is just what Mac Jones was doing.
Real quick pass is not good for the wide receivers.
Terrific for Christian McCaffrey.
You guys worried about George Kittle,
or we think he's going to be great going forward, or what?
He was one of our big buys on last week's show,
so I'm sticking with it once Purdy gets back in.
Right, yeah, I don't see any reason why George Kittle wouldn't be George Kittle.
And I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be listening to Beyond the Box
score the rest of the week.
What kind of episodes that we have coming up this week?
Yeah, Beyond the Box score.
check us out. We do. This is the first one of a four episode week. Dan and I have got two
together and we're going to get into all the usage notes, all the specific stuff. Like we're
about to get into Romo Dunzay and I'll tell you about some of the underlying reasons why
things haven't been as good. We try to do that just for like basically the whole league is what
we do on these upcoming episodes. Curious to see if you and I reading into Romo Dunzee came up
with any of the same things or what. So that's our last topic. We'll get to that.
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We're going to take a break,
come back, give you the update,
we have an update on Bryce Young,
and we'll be right back on fantasy football today.
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All right, Bryce Young is a high ankle sprain.
He's unlikely to play this week against the bills.
That could often be a multi-week absence.
Bills, Packers, next two games, it's going to be tough for Andy Dalton.
Are you going to-
I don't know about bills being tough these days, maybe.
That's true.
They got pretty injured a couple of ways.
weeks ago in that game against the Falcons.
So hopefully they're a little healthier coming out of the buy.
It is a home game for Carolina.
That's good.
Do you think this hurts or helps Tetaroa McMillan having any Dalton back there?
He was actually very quite fond of Xavier Legat yesterday.
He was.
Yeah.
I mean, what we've seen so far is that Dalton has been better than Bryce, at least for facilitating
the volume that receivers need.
So it definitely could be a good thing.
okay
Dalton did have a couple
when he started for Bryce
over his past two years before this
had a couple big games
if I remember 300 plus
still can get the ball out
I think on time
still understands how to process
of defense very well
so older player
I'm not knocking
either of those two guys
are fans
I want to see with a full week
to game plan who he's targeting
yeah his first start
319 yards 30.6 fantasy points
at Las Vegas
this was Dalton last year
and it just got worse
after that
220 yards
136, 221, and then 93 yards.
I don't know if he got hurt in that game.
I meant to look that up.
He was only 11 of 16 for 93 yards.
But I think he did get hurt.
And then Young came back.
Maybe they just benched him.
But Dalton started out hot and then fizzled.
What else we got?
Okay, so the Dolphins situation.
There was a report from Ian Rappaport
that no changes are expected at this time for the dolphins this week.
I don't know if that's about Mike McDaniel.
McDaniel said that he's going to evaluate.
and if you're not helping the team,
you might lose your job.
I don't think he was talking about Tua.
I'd be surprised.
But obviously, shaky situation there.
I'm not about that.
Adam Schaefter was saying that the Vikings
could be looking at week nine for J.J. McCarthy.
So not this upcoming week,
but the week after,
that would be at Detroit in week nine.
That's just a maybe.
And then Justin Fields could get benched.
Aaron Glenn hasn't made a decision.
Breeze Hall, though, is looking good.
He should be fine for this week's game.
against Cincinnati, and Garrett Wilson
could be back this week.
We would love that at Cincinnati.
Running back news, it's pretty much just
Breece Hall. I don't know if there's an update on
Kreme Hunt. I haven't seen anything.
I'd like to see an update on Kyler Murray.
This Cardinals' offense looks like
it's moving a lot better without him.
Could be. Brian Thomas Jr.
was a little dinged up late, but he's going
into his buy, and Dantevian
Wix with a calf injury. There were a couple
of big, tight end injuries. Darren Waller,
haven't heard any updates there yet.
pectoral injury for Waller.
Cole Comette left.
They're at Baltimore next week.
That could be a shootout.
Could be good for Loveland.
Offensive line.
Philadelphia Center, Cam Jurgens.
St. Center, Eric McCoy.
A couple of chargers got banged up.
San Francisco Center, Jake Brendel, or Brendel, sorry.
Kansas City Guard, Tray Smith.
These are all guys who left with injuries.
Sauce Gardner's in the Concussion Protocol.
San Francisco lost the cornerback.
Renardo Green in the first half.
every down player for them.
The Falcons lost the linebacker, Divine Diablo,
and maybe that's why their run defense.
Their run defense actually, in terms of yards per carry,
wasn't so good coming into the game,
but they did limit fantasy points.
They also, the Falcons were giving up the fewest
receiving yards to running backs all year,
and McCaffrey had that kind of game against them.
Washington lost edge rush for Dorrance Armstrong in the first quarter.
He's their Sacks leader, so we'll see if he can get back out there.
And I think the Jeffrey Simmons injury is pretty big
for the Titans, luckily they're going on a bye.
The Eagles are a little beat up.
Actually, no, wait.
I don't think the Titans are going on a bye.
Sorry, they have the Colts next week.
And they're just injured in general.
All right.
Let's do some snap counts and other stats
that we deem necessary for you to know.
Jacob, take it away, Cub.
That's not even a dad joke.
I don't know what that is.
That's crazy.
He must get that all the time.
What was that?
He must get that all the time.
I did see if in the comments,
apparently your impression of me was off of a dad joke,
so I definitely have to listen now.
I think it was like,
what is that supposed to be funny?
I mean, what is that supposed to be funny?
How is that?
What am I supposed to laugh at that?
Dan, that's too spot on.
It's too close to home.
All right, what do we got, Jacob Gibbs?
So I didn't really prepare much,
but I do have, like, we can go through positionally.
The guy who just, like, jumps out to me at the front of mine is
Arondi Gads.
and I'm curious to you guys take.
So he's been somebody I've been excited for,
but like really couldn't have expected him to play such a big role in year one.
Both he and Harold Fanon, I was like, I don't know.
It feels like they could eventually become full-time pros
where they're playing in line and doing this stuff
where they're split out in the slot and out wide,
but I didn't think that they would be good enough blockers,
which jury's still out for sure.
But they're both playing a ton, like 87%.
route rate for Fanon this week.
Of course, the game environment was, you know, weird and tough to produce much passing
there, especially with them playing with a huge lead and just running so much.
77% route rate for Gadsden, so that's back-to-back weeks where he's basically just a full-time
player and a big part of the offense.
So I've got to hear it tied in.
If you guys have any thoughts on him, I'm going to look around and see if there's anybody else.
Terrence Ferguson popped off a little bit.
I do want to talk a little bit about Gadsden because he's going to be probably the highest
priority waiver this week, I assume, except for maybe two QB leagues with Dalton.
He's somebody we talked about a lot on Beyond the Box floor last week, Jacob.
I just feel like what the Chargers have realized with getting him on the field is they can get
him in matchups that are advantageous for their offense, especially with a quarterback like
Justin Herbert.
Like I saw it cut up from yesterday from his game, and there were multiple times where Herbert
hits the whole shot to Gadsden.
It's like, yeah, he's going to be there in that spot.
He's essentially a wide receiver playing tight end in some ways.
But it wasn't just that.
he made plays after the catch.
He really had like a complete football game for the Chargers.
He looked really freaking good out there.
I think when he,
the amount of plays he made,
like I get it.
It's tough to predict what's going to happen to the Chargers.
Quentin Johnson was this fantasy fine for most of the season.
Now he's had like two games in a row with less than 12% target a chair.
It's going to be frustrating at times,
I'm assuming.
And I think you have the numbers to back this up,
Jacob,
so you can follow up if you have them.
The Chargers have thrown at an incredible rate this year.
And they continue to throw at an incredible rate.
And so they're one of the past first teams in the NFL.
They're one of the few past first teams, past heavy teams, the NFL.
So it may just be one of those offense with an elite quarterback like Justin Herbert,
where you can trust a lot of guys to at least be in play.
And at the tight end position, you don't have to do much to be worth starting on a weekly basis.
Their third impasse rate over expectation.
The chiefs are at the very top.
They've been there all year.
And the Cardinals have creeped way up.
They've had a running back injuries, of course, and that the Chargers are next.
So it definitely has been a very fantasy-friendly offense.
Yeah, they, well, how about this?
Chargers, because we weren't talking about the Chargers offense later.
They are fourth in yards per game.
They are third in pass rate.
They are first in pass attempts per game.
39.3 pass attempts per game.
The Chargers are second in gross passing yards per game.
They're also first in wide receiver target rate.
That could be changing if they get Gadsden more involved.
They're seventh in touchdown passes.
But all of those things said, the Chargers are 19th in points per game
because they are the second worst red zone.
own team in the NFL.
They are horrible there, and only the Raiders are worse than the Chargers.
But everything else is so great.
Six most plays per game.
They're passing all the time.
I think one thing I noticed with them, though, is they've played really good offenses,
including the Colts, best offense in football right now, I believe.
You know, they don't have a bad defense.
So their schedule lightens up in terms of the caliber of offenses they play.
So I guess I could see lower scoring games.
less need to throw the ball,
but at the same time,
without Amari and Hampton,
they're not going to be able to run the ball
successfully for the most part.
So we should expect a lot of pass stamps.
I will say that I love Gadsden,
what I'm seeing from him as a player.
However, I do not think I'll be picking him up
in maybe any leagues because I just...
Really?
I'm very nervous about picking up players
after their quarterback throws 54, 55 passes.
And the example that comes to mind last year
was Jordan Love
facing Sam Darnold and the Vikings.
I don't know if you remember that fourth quarter comeback game.
Love through 54 times.
Don Tavian Wicks had five catches, 78 yards, two touchdowns on 13 targets, and I'm pretty
sure Christian Watson, yeah, he did.
He got hurt in that game.
And we went Gaga as a community for Don Tavian Wicks.
He had two catches for 20 yards the next game on seven targets, but still.
I just, 50 plus pass attempts, you know, it just, you could really be sucked in.
And if I don't know if I can trust Quentin Johnston or Keenan Allen.
Lab McCocky every week.
It's just too hard for Gadsden, I think, to be consistent.
I'm not saying you can't stream them, but I can't see consistency from him.
It's not his fault.
It's just this is what we've got here with the chargers.
Too many mouths to feed.
At wide receiver, I would point out, C.LAM, all the way back, 100% route rate.
Rashi Rice was not, and this is partially influenced by the blowout.
But even early on, I think they were using him in a pretty limited way, kind of easing him back in.
here's the route chart from next gen from Ian Hartett's where you see like pretty much
was only on one side of the field doing real simple stuff and still had a huge game.
So I think that there's maybe even more upside.
They've talked about wanting to expand his role beyond what we've seen in the past.
Travis Hunter got a role expansion that's back-to-back weeks, whereas route rate is much,
much higher than we've seen in the past.
And then Matthew Golden, again, like his peripherals just keep creeping up.
It wasn't a good game, which is you would have liked to see a big game when the Packers
actually fell behind for once.
I haven't gotten to his film yet,
but the underlying stuff continues to look good.
If you want more on the Chiefs,
with Patrick Mahomes on the field,
here were the route participation rates.
Xavier Worthy, 75%, Kelsey, 72.5%.
Isaiah Pacheco, 50%, which is cool.
Second week in a row where Kareem Hunt
has missed some time in the game with injury.
Marquise Brown, 47.
Markis Brown, Jujer Smith-Schuster, and Rishir Rice
were all at a 47.5% route participation rate.
with Mahomes on the field.
Noah Gray, 37.5%,
and the big loser was Taekwon Thornton, 32.5%.
Do you guys know who wide receiver won per game is this year?
PPR?
Is it not? Puka?
Not anymore.
Jamar?
It's Rishi Rice.
Oh.
Nice.
I have some other stuff, unless you had more.
I didn't want to cut you off.
The Carolina guys was pretty much a,
straight split, drive-to-drive. I thought RICO played better, but I haven't got into the film on that.
Kalmananga was playing more in this game, so it was another big D'Andre Swift game. But even early in
the game, Monaga was getting in and scoring points. And I think that's interesting, relevant,
potentially, like maybe it's a time to sell high on Swift. You continued it on, like, the Pacheco
usage keeps looking good. I was really surprised that Bichard Smith was in the game a lot. We've
talked about how they've kind of phased them out it seemed like but early on they were getting
a lot of touches including some touches out of the backfield early on which they hadn't really
been doing so i guess i'm just saying i have no idea what to expect from this because i thought maybe
with rice coming back that it would be not so much burchard smith stuff um but i think adie reed really
likes him so i'm continuing to keep an eye on him is he like bringing back the mcinnon role for
this offense essentially that's what yeah people hoped it would be but it looked like they were
apprehensive to get him backfield touches cream hunt did get a little bit banged up
in this one. But yeah, 14 carries is way more than we've seen from him. A lot of it was at the end
of the game, just kind of salting at the clock. But still, like, that's different than what we've
seen really with him. Yeah. So my thoughts on that is I just, I'm not going to care unless
Pacheco gets, third down or goal line work. And that's Kareem Hunt's role. So it's like he's getting
better for Pacheco, but he needs to score. And he can't score if Kareem Hunt's healthy, I feel.
or he's probably not going to score if Kareem Hunt is healthy.
So that's kind of where I'm at.
I guess a shout out Jalen Warren just real quick
in case anybody that's gone from their mind
because there's a long time ago or whatever,
but the role was really good again,
and he continues to look so good.
I feel like the week before he didn't have a lot of production,
but he was running people over.
I feel like this back-to-back weeks where it's like,
this guy's really good,
and the team is responding to that
and giving him basically all the touches.
Also on that front, like it's an offensive line,
the Steelers, where one,
they drafted a lot of talent like over these last few years and it took a while to come together
but it actually looks to me when I watched them like watching that full game on Thursday
at Island game it's starting to come together and we know from the history of Arthur Smith as
a play caller and offense coordinator he designs great run games like he always has had a top run game
and earlier in the year it's like ah well whatever I guess it's not happening for Pittsburgh
looks like it's happening for Pittsburgh I actually really like that point about Warren he's
somebody who if you can trade for you still haven't chance to I don't think he's fully broken out
with that offense. He looks good, individually, as Jacob said, and that line and that run
game starting to really come together with a lot of talent up front.
Come on and Vidal played the same role. I just wanted to get that in real quick. Play the same
role that he did last week. No, there were two running backs who stunk this week, but I thought
their roles, probably more than that. Their roles were good, and that was Vidal and actually
Bam Knight. They started using Deerunis Johnson on third down, so Michael Carter was completely
useless. But Bam Knight was not really splitting, and neither was Kamani Vidal, just in terms of
carries you know what you're getting you're not getting great players here you're just hoping that
game script's good enough and they could find the end zone or something so at least you can take a
little bit of heart in that by the way dan when you said the offensive line was starting to come
together it reminded me of starting to come together pepper starting to come together oh i thought
you're going to say it reminds you've come together oh that overrated band you have no idea
get a lot of heat for that all weekend
and rightfully. Yeah, you deserve it.
Again, let me make it clear. Top 20, top 15, fine. I'm with that.
Top one, no. Top 20. Oh, that's so generous.
Top 15, top 10, maybe.
Maybe. Beatles may be top 10. Okay.
Other notes here, Travis Hunter,
he played 87% of the offensive snaps.
Kyron Williams played 29 snaps in the first three quarters
compared to Blake Corum's 14.
So it was pretty much a two-thirds split for Kairn.
Stefan Diggs only played 54% of the snaps,
but he did have a 75% route participation rate,
which is pretty good for him.
Tyler Biday was back,
and R.J. Harvey was, you know, caught a touchdown,
but he barely, they played about the same amount of snaps.
Josh Jacobs only played 55% of the snaps.
Before the game, there was a report that it was his calf
that was a bigger issue than his illness.
And he played only 55% of the snaps.
Hopefully he can get healthy throughout the week.
And Washington wide receivers, if they're playing another game without Debo and McLaurin, Chris Moore, 79% of the snaps, Jalen Lane, 69%, Zach Gertz, 67%.
Luke McCaffrey.
Seems like everybody wants him to be the guy.
He just doesn't really play that much.
He played 54% of the snaps.
You know, I probably should have looked at the first three quarters because it was a blowout, but I don't think they were taking their, I don't think they were taking their guys out because of the score.
Speaking of that.
I could get ugly fast, too, if Mariotta's playing.
I don't know.
You know, they did a pretty good job with him.
Marioita, they faced the Raiders.
I have it in my notes somewhere.
They scored a good amount of points.
Hold on.
He's in my notes somewhere.
Mariota.
Against the Raiders, yeah.
Oh, they scored 41 points against the Raiders and 27 points at the Falcons.
So credit for him.
But they need their guys back.
They were like, aren't they like down multiple scores in that game?
And a lot of it was garbage time against Atlanta.
And I thought I remember that.
Could be.
I don't remember.
Yeah.
All right, topic number one is about the Washington Commanders.
It's about Jacori Kroski Merritt.
This is from Mo, Mo, Mo, Mo, Mo, Mo, Mo, Mo.
Bill, having two chances and failing fantasy managers is a bit unfortunate,
considering pretty decent matchups.
And he's talking about the Bears last week and the Cowboys this week.
And, yeah, those are great matchups.
And he scored 5.8 fantasy points against Chicago and, what, 4.2 fantasy points?
yesterday. So Jacob, I don't blame you. You were high on him. It looked like things were
setting up pretty nicely. What are you seeing right now with Chikori Kroski Merritt?
Yeah, definitely disappointing because we were excited for these matchups. I will say the bears
got healthier coming out of the buy into that game and they played pretty well. I haven't dug
into the film for this week. I'm surprised that we didn't get a better result. But yeah,
Well, we're seeing for Bill, like he's had a 39% stacked box rate this week, only three yards before contact this week.
And so I think, you know, Jane being out probably hurts and the run scheme isn't working quite as well.
But, I mean, ultimately, like, he's just got to play better, I think, is basically where I'm out with it.
Like, he had just amazing games through the first five games.
And the past two, like, all of the efficiency numbers are just crashing way down.
I think that he can get there.
Like I'm not doubting the talent at all,
but like he needs to run well for him to be a good fantasy player.
Like he doesn't have quite the like target equity that some players do.
And he might lose out on touchdowns occasionally.
We saw that in this game where the touchdown happened to go to Chris Rodriguez late in the third quarter.
And so if he's not running well, then he's a pretty questionable start.
but we really thought that he would run well
because this Cliff Kingsbury scheme has done such a good job of running well
and he looks like a really effective player within it
and everything the team has done suggests that they really believe in him to run well.
So that's where we're at.
It sucks.
I still believe in him.
I would buy low on Bill.
But if we get many more of these games,
then we're just clearly on a downward trajectory.
Dan, did you watch the tape?
I did.
I'm curious your thoughts.
I'm not got a chance yet to watch the Washington commanders run game.
so I'll defer to you on this one.
Well, first of all, he gained 29 yards on his first five carries.
And then the rest of the game, Kroski Merritt, had eight carries for four yards.
What I saw, and I don't have anything to compare this to,
I thought it was a very aggressive defense for the Cowboys.
As Jacob mentioned, they had eight men in the box a lot.
I also thought they were kind of run blitzing a lot.
I just think they had no respect for the commander's passing game.
With no McLaurin, with no Debo Samuel,
and then eventually with no Jaden Daniels,
I think they just really focused on Jacorri Kroski-Mert.
I thought, believe it or not,
they just whooped, they just whipped Washington up front.
He was in the, he was getting hit in the backfield a number of times.
I don't think anyone would have ran well under these circumstances personally.
So then let's talk about a couple things.
The goal line.
That doesn't surprise me too, right?
Like all the things you mentioned,
that no receivers, Jaden out of the game.
Yeah.
So then let's talk about a couple of like concern.
Go ahead, Jacob.
Sorry.
No, you could.
I was just jumping in randomly.
I would say, like, what we just saw with Bijon Robinson is basically the same thing,
where there was no respect for the past game and the average 2.8 yards per rush.
The difference is, like, he has the receiving stuff that's, like, way beyond what Bill has.
Exactly.
This is a weird one, but, like, stylistically, Bill kind of runs like Bijam.
Well, like, as there's pieces that he can, like, navigate, like, he is extremely effective
at navigating each individual one and jumping from one to the next to the next.
like if everything's crashing down like there's not much that he can really do yeah so there are two
other concerns here right why did chris rodriguez get a goal line touchdown well the way that
unfolded was they had second down and one at the three yard line and kroski merit was in the game
and this was mariotta at this point and they threw incomplete and he came off the field for third
and one which surprised me a little bit usually he comes off the field for third down it's mcichols
for whatever reason they brought rodriguez in on third and one from the three yard line
and Rodriguez got to carry and he scored a touchdown.
They played five snaps inside the five-yard line
and Bill was in on three of them.
So that's not a huge concern for me.
I certainly don't think Rodriguez is the goal line back.
Obviously, it could happen,
but I think Bill is the first option there.
But then you get into the passing game stuff,
and there's just almost nothing there.
The commanders, Jaden Daniels has the second lowest running back target rate
on first and second down in the NFL,
ahead of only Sam Darnold.
And if he's going to catch passes,
it's going to be on first or second.
I don't think he's run a single route.
He hasn't run a single route on third down
the entire season.
So that's an issue.
We know what it is, right?
He needs to get a lot of work.
And that's another issue.
That's something that we probably haven't talked about.
Because Jaden Daniels run so much,
they don't really have that many running back carries.
So the running back I wanted to compare Bill to was Quinn John Judkins.
Both of these guys, they have one of the lowest route participation rates
among running backs.
They don't play on third down.
The difference is,
Quinchon Judkins in his last three games,
he's got over 20 carries twice.
You're talking 14 to 17 carries,
three straight games
for Jacori-Kroski-merit.
But I think I like what you're talking about
because I think you're spot on
those are a lot of good stats
and a good comparison.
But I think if Bill is going to win us fantasy leagues
or he's going to be a contributor
for us down the stretch,
it's a different path than Judkins.
Judkins path to me is Browns can stay
in some of these games.
games, keep the game script close, and Judkins can get his 20 carries, and he's a really good
individual runner, and their line is coming together, and Stefanski's calling some good stuff up front.
For Bill, it's almost like Daniels gets back to the level he was playing last year, the Washington
offense gets back to the level they were playing last year, and Bill is a cog in that
offense, because that's, to me, it's less of, it's less reliance on him and more reliance on
the Washington offense and Jane and Daniels get back to how they were playing last year,
which that I have some concerns about.
it just makes a wonder have you looked at the schedule for bill it's get harder i feel like it gets
harder i feel it's chiefs lions the next three yes chiefs seehawks lions these next few and then they
could be what like three and is it three and seven am i doing my math right lose all those yeah
yeah and then that's if mario to play i don't even know what's going to happen with that situation
with jaden should we be thinking about selling quinshawn judkins based on what i said i mean it's
i mean i haven't been in on him at any point so yes but but you've been
kind of been wrong because
for now if the games are close for now
yeah it's not a bad idea
again if the game script's good and he's a great player
let me be clear about that I like his talent a lot
it's not a bad idea to think about selling a player
after he faces Miami it's
right but I would definitely try
to sell him right now you know look he could be
Nick Chubb Nick Chubb was one of the few running
backs who thrived
while not catching passes it's basically just been him
and Derek Henry over the last whatever
six some years can Judkins
be that guy or will they maybe
throw to him a little bit more maybe but i feel like in both of the yeah it's fair comparison like
some of those titans offense weren't weren't that great and henry was able to overcome it same thing
for nick chub so i don't it's not like i'm totally out on this player i think he's in a phenomenal
talent like everything he's done for fantasy i think he's done in a lot of ways himself but
i just have such a hard time buying into the brown's offense rest of season with dylan gabriel
same. Dan, do you remember that when I dug into all the Chubb or the, uh, the data for Judkins this
summer? I was like, he looks like a bus unless he's Nick Chubb. Like that's basically exactly
what the data said. And then you watch him as a pro, I was like, he kind of looks like Nick Chub.
Yeah, really good. Yeah. So I'll tell you some guys, he's, you tell me if you'd rather have
Quinchon Judkins or some guys who's kind of close to in points per game. Cam Scadaboo.
Yeah, we've done this a few times.
It's tough.
I think I do lean towards Scataboo
because he has receiving upside
that Judkins doesn't.
I'll go Scataboo.
Judkins or Jalen Warren?
I'm going to go with Warren.
That might sound crazy.
I feel the same way.
I will say this about Judkins.
There are, like, looking ahead,
Patriots, he has some games
Jets, Raiders that stand out to me, Titans, he still has some games left on a schedule that
really stand out as possible wins for him from a game script standpoint, maybe.
And there's just some other games on here, like 49ers.
Some of these games are just like, I don't see it for him because I don't see the Brown's
score. For me, it all just comes down to the touchdown upside with him versus a player like
Warren or Scadaboo. And I feel like for Scadaboo for sure has more touchdown upside than
Judkins. Oh, I don't know. Well, maybe.
He certainly has a nose for the end zone.
He also just got to be who likes to get into the end zone,
and while he's two yards deep in the end zone,
lower his helmet and smash a defender for no reason.
It just craves contact.
Let's not forget with Quinn Sean Judkins.
Last week, he faced Pittsburgh,
and he had 12 carries for 36 yards for 3.6 fantasy points in all formats.
All right.
All right, we got to take a break.
Talk about the Chargers offense when we come back on fantasy football today.
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Cross-training tread plus at one peloton.ca. All right, question from Michelle, what to do with
teams like the Chargers? So much talent, but how to know who to trust. I thought about this
a lot. I did a lot of research. I watched a ton of tape. And Michelle, I have no idea. So Jacob,
what do you think? Specifically about the Chargers. I think the Eagles are kind of,
this boat too but what do you think i think like generally it's been encouraging to me what we've
been able to facilitate offensively with the chargers here even with the tackles going down
some of it like this game and some of it was just kind of desperation mode right playing from behind
and then the game before was against the dolphins so like i think could even get worse um and
that's i think important to bring up because like with you know gads then emerging with quinn johnston
playing better this year with Keenan Allen
continued to like to make like first on the team
this week 36% first read
target rate Keenan Allen and this is
just kind of been who Keenan Allen has been like
all along the way last year
this year still at this point
his career that does
make it fragile where there has to be
a lot of yards and a lot of attempts
and everything that we've been seeing from them
for these guys to be good like even this
week QJ barely got there with it because
he had a touchdown when Johnson had a
10% first read target rate this
week because Keenan, Ladd-McConkey, and Gads, then all were really, really involved.
So it's like, I believe in Herbert, and I'm, like, generally happy with how they've been
able to play and keep this afloat, but it could be bad for any given guy on any given week.
I think that is true from the receiving standpoint, but the better, I mean, are we, is there
any reason to doubt Justin Herbert as a clear-cut top six quarterback rest of season?
Yeah.
Doing this without Joel?
There is.
You know, I think he, okay, his, look at his last four games, 16.6 points at Denver,
14.5 points at the Giants, 16.6 against Washington.
This is six point for passing touchdown.
22.8 at Miami, which isn't even that good.
Then he has this huge game with, how many points did he score yesterday, 30-something.
So there's some reason, I mean, I think he's probably a must start, but I can't ignore that
the last
four games.
The top game and
passover expectation.
Like,
I just feel like
they can't run
the football
with this group of
backs that are left.
Maybe that will change.
Right.
I think that will change.
I think they'll be able
to run the football
pretty well.
They weren't running it well
before that, though.
They had one good game
running the football
with Hampton.
I thought they did too.
Well.
Might have a second.
You might be right.
I still have a six.
I mean,
he's good.
He's,
you know,
but I think,
you know,
the one that really stands out
that I think people
are probably the most concerned
about my guess
would be Quentin Johnston.
His target share
his last two games
12.5%
and 11.1%.
Look how open he is here.
Oh, he burns this guy.
Throw it to me.
It's a touchdown.
P.S. These jerseys are gross.
I couldn't, like, watching the film,
watching the tape, look at this.
You can't tell what the numbers are.
Thank goodness Quentin Johnson has long hair.
I had no idea who's who.
These are bad jerseys.
Legitently, other than QJ could not tell
who was who.
I was like mixing up Keenan Allen
and Ladd-McConkey, and the next player
would mix up Keenan Allen and Gadsden.
It's like, how does it make any sense
given the size difference with those guys?
Yes, I know.
All yellow is an insane move.
Keenan caught a touchdown,
and I was like, oh, Gadsden caught a touch.
No, no, it was Keenan Allen.
Anyway, my personal thought was
Quentin Johnson looked pretty good,
still running by guys.
He had a deep shot that Herbert threw behind him
a little bit.
He couldn't come down with it.
But at the same time,
it's 12% target share in his last two games.
with a injured game in between there.
That clip you just showed,
like the ball is already coming out of Herbert's hands, right?
Yes, because Keenan Allen's wide open too,
and it was a completion of Keenan Allen.
And I just think that's relevant for QJ.
Like, this is something Dan and I were worried about with QJ,
like when we speculated on what the loss of Joe Alt might mean,
in addition to the Slater loss of the other tackle spot,
it's like, I think Johnson is probably the most likely to see his numbers go down.
And that's what we've seen is Herbert's getting the ball out very quick.
2.33 time to throw this past week was the fastest it's been all year.
Oh, wow.
And his pressure rate was the lowest it's been all year in this game.
And it's been low each of the past two games because they're intentionally designing things to get the ball out quickly.
And QJ has been like the isolated X receiver that's working down the field more.
Sure.
But the good news is that Joe Alt's been practicing.
He didn't go on IR.
I think there's probably a chance he's back this upcoming week.
They've got Minnesota.
soda. So that could really help. It's a big deal. I mean, it's a big deal when guys get their left tackle back. So I think you said it well, right? It's like one of these guys is probably going to stink. I don't understand what's going on with, oh, here's McConkey, but here's a, look at how open. Look at how open La McCongue is. He was distracted. He goes, hey, can you believe the Giants are going to beat the Broncos? He was so sure. Yeah, but look how open he is. This was an incomplete pass. He threw this ball almost through the goalpost. It was so high. It should have been a touchdown for McConkey. He also had.
had another ball in his hands in the end zone later in the game.
Someone asked, where are the six-sevons in these pictures?
Six-seven has not made its way out to Los Angeles, believe it or not.
It's still very much an East Coast thing, I guess.
What was the first game I used it on?
Oh, no, it was in San Francisco last night.
Never mind.
Bad take there.
Yeah, so it's going to be tough.
I'm going to start Quentin Johnston in all my leagues next week,
and just especially if Joe Al plays and just hope it's his turn.
Justin Herbert had 355 catchable air yards produced in this game,
which was the second most in any game this year.
The only one higher was that crazy Russell Wilson game to get went into overtime.
Oh, wow.
So that's, that's what I mean.
We're talking about like the offensive environment.
Like there's only been three games even above 300 catchable air yards all year.
All right.
This one's from Jake Anderson.
How concerned are we about Travis Hunter maybe becoming the featured wide receiver over
Brian Thomas Jr.
And the Jags offense moving forward.
I'm going to throw out to Dan first.
Okay, so obviously I've been low on Brian Thomas Jr. for a little while now.
And I've heard it in the Beyond the Boxcore chat.
Shout out to the Beyond the Box Scors, who join us every week and populate the chat.
They couldn't believe some of the players that I would be willing to trade Brian Thomas Jr.
For some of the players that I would take over Brian Thomas Jr.
Another week goes by and PtJ to me just continues to look bad on the football field.
um i didn't think he was particularly impressive in this game and then finally they start to expand
Travis hunter's route participation and just they let him do things that he's fully capable of doing
and he looks a lot better in that role than brian thames junior ever really did so i my antennas are
up for Travis hunter um i think he could be i always i said this before and i talked about us with
jacob on our show earlier this summer i watched tape of every single receiver that came to this class
And there were some good players.
Buka's been amazing this year, among others.
Travis Hunter to me was the clear-cut best receiver on tape.
And it wasn't really particularly close.
There were no weaknesses in his game besides maybe straight line speed,
which I don't even really feel as a weakness of his.
So I'm ready to see it come out because they're finally letting him run more of a full route tree.
And they finally believe that he's capable of understanding where to be within the offense.
And look at what he does in his first opportunity like that.
He steps up for 20 plus fantasy points.
Yeah, BTJ had team high, 93 catchable air yards, six catchable targets.
The result was three receptions for 31 yards.
He's just not playing well.
Liam Cohen has been talking about it.
Like it seems like we've been kind of walking the tie rope with him all year,
whereas like this could maybe this gets turned around.
It seems like they're trying to do things to get him feeling more confident,
but he continues to not look confident and he continues to look really uncomfortable
we're going over the middle of the field.
It seemed like his shoulder is bothering him and his wrist.
It's all sorts of things.
It's just like, yeah, I feel no confidence really in it bouncing back.
But on the Travis Hunter side of things, yeah, it's looking really encouraging.
A lot of catchable air yards from Trevor Lawrence in this one because they fell behind
and had to throw a ton, of course.
And then we saw that that focused mostly on Hunter, 39% first three target rate was by far the
highest on the team, by far the highest we've seen from Travis, and the usage is
been trending upward.
And I think he's good enough to capitalize on it.
I'm excited to dig into the film more.
Of course, I watched that on Sunday morning,
but I want to watch the individual routes
because he hasn't been winning routes at a high rate.
But I do think that that's partially affected
by the types of routes they've asked him to run.
So I'm very excited to see, like,
dig into more downfield stuff for him.
Would you, who'd you take straight up right now?
I would take Travis Hunter over him right now.
That's the season.
Interesting.
I mean, I think I would, too.
This was, I mean, this couldn't have swung worse for BTJ.
Like, I felt so bad coming out of this game in terms of BTJ vibes.
Yeah, I would still take Thomas because hopefully he can get healthy on the buy,
but also Hunter yelled 6-7-6-7 about that.
So I think there's still this possibility that they use him on defense, you know, that he has a...
He's great on day.
He had a really good rep in that.
game. So that that possibility still exists. I can't knock that out. It's a problem. Yeah.
Because their secondary needs it too. Like they could use some help at half time during that
game. I forget who it was. But whoever on NFL network was saying like they should use him on
defense because they're getting torched. They've committed, I think, four penalties in their
secondary. The problem is like their offense sucked until they used him more consistently on
offense. So they have an equal problem on both sides of the ball. Brian Thomas Jr. has six
drops this year. That is as many as he had last year. I'm watching currently.
his drops. He's playing. He has
really cost himself
a lot of fantasy points with drops this year.
Yeah. All right.
Our last topic.
41% of the snaps for Hunter
came out wide, which is another
clear change. Like it's not just the slots.
There we go. Finally. He can win
out wide. He won out wide consistently at Colorado.
All right. This one comes from Philly
Dad. Is Romo
Dunzee a hold or a
buy low? Is the Chicago offense
doing anything differently after the by
that is affecting Rome's production, or is it regression?
And before we answer that, for the season, Romo Dunzee is currently much different in non-PPR
than full PPR.
I'll give you per game.
He is per game, Romodunzee, number 11 wide receiver per game, in non-PPR, number 13 and
half PPR, number 17 in full PPR.
So it could just be regression and you just take the full season numbers, but the concern, like,
this is his pace for the season.
season. Sixty-eight catches, not great, 1,117 yards, not great, 14 touchdowns on 130 targets.
That's his pace right now. But the question is, is he a hold or a buy-low, and is the Chicago
offense doing anything differently after the buy? And Jacob, what is your take on Romodunzei?
I dug into this. So I've got on the screen the first read target rates as per fantasy points
data. Through the first
four weeks for O'Donzee, we had 28%,
38%, 29%,
32%. So all in that
wide receiver one range, every single game
and the two games following the
buy, it's been at 17 and 19%.
You don't overreact two games,
it could swing back in his favor, but this was another thing
that Dan and I speculated on was that
it felt like when you watched Caleb
Williams that he was getting a bit too locked
onto O'Dunzee as that first read and missing
other guys. And we know that DJ Moore has
a tendency to get frustrated. He was a
who's getting missed a lot where it's like that if you can get through the progressions these guys are more open like these plays are created to like layer in different looks for you depending on what the defense is doing and so when they're taking away Rome you need to get off of Rome and he wasn't doing that very well but lately they've kind of just changed it seems like the the intent of the plays in terms of the way that he's reading it out and so I dug into fantasy points data and I think I can contextualize it and
and what I've been seen is time to throw when targeting his first raid in the two games
following the buy is 2.23 and 2.24 seconds on average, whereas before the buy it was like 2.55.
So that's a pretty substantial change.
His average depth of target is down as well when targeting his first read coming out of the buy.
So I think they're doing more things to maybe get off of O'Donzei as that first read.
So he doesn't get stuck there would be my guess.
I don't know.
Like maybe it's just to get other pieces incorporated or whatever.
But I think what we saw this last game was no player above a 20% first retarded rate.
So it's like Ben Johnson maybe just kind of taking more control and like getting it where it's like more of the Daniel Jones kind of thing, you know, where it's like this is your first read.
Like go there.
Like I've got like each play I've got something designed specifically to beat what I think the demons is doing.
that's kind of where I'm at
is like Caleb
seemed to be struggling a bit
progressing through his reads
and then also like his accuracy
was not good
in the four games before the buy
and continues to be not very good
especially when off of his first read
his accuracy had been really really bad
according to Fantasy One status
he's charting
so it doesn't look good for Rome
but at the same time
the volume has been really low
for the offense lately in terms of passing numbers and that could creep up they've i think they're
only favored to win two of their games the rest of the season which is really strange for a team that's
playing so well um but they've got some things some games where they could get into back and four
shoot outs it could be playing from behind so i definitely wouldn't overreact and sell room because i think
everything we saw from a town perspective is very clear he's a top 10 pick he's playing really well
looking like an alpha target hog type of wide receiver one through the first month and that could
come back if they get where they feel a need to be more aggressive in the passing game and push
things down the field. I'll say one thing on that note from a team context standpoint. I have seen
a couple great breakdowns yesterday and from last week of just what Ben Johnson's been able to
create in the run game with his scheme. Some of these are just like wide open holes for Deandre
Swift to cut through. And that's something that could have came out of the buy, right? He's designing
more success in the run game. They were already doing a good job before the buy in this regard,
but even better of a job now, in addition to the Bears defense playing a lot better football
coming out of the biweek, not exactly sure why that's the case.
Don't follow them closely enough.
Maybe it's a health standpoint or just the matchups they've faced.
But if those two things continue, Bears' defense playing as good as they have recently or somewhere
close, and then Ben Johnson and DeAndre Swift designing the run game to be as successful
it was, it's just going to be less pass volume overall for everyone, including Odunze.
I'm so interested in the Bears that my YouTube algorithm like feeds me Bears content as if I'm
a fan.
Yeah, they've gotten, they've gotten healthier on defense.
And I feel like Ben Johnson all year in regards to the run game and the defense is like,
we're right there.
Like we just, it's just, you know, we see it on film.
Like there's just a few things that need to happen.
He like, continued to stand by DeAndre Swift the whole way and be like, it's not
any one person's fault.
It's just that we're very close to getting her execution down and we're not quite there.
Yeah, I think that's the biggest difference is they've run for over 100 yards,
well over 100 yards as a team, each of the last two games,
they've had 27 carries for 145 yards in a touchdown at Washington,
134 yards in a touchdown against New Orleans,
so 27 carries in both games.
Caleb Williams, 29 and 26 pass attempts.
That's just never good.
DeAndre Swift has not been a guy that you can really trust to be efficient,
but this is only the second time in his tenure with the Bears.
He's averaged more than four yards per carry in consecutive games,
but he is on fire right now.
Maybe they did figure something out during the buy.
And far as though, Dunezay goes,
I brought it up a lot.
I was like, should we sell high in this guy
because he's got, you know,
one game with more than 69 yards.
And that's still the case.
He had 128 yards and two touchdowns at Detroit.
They were getting killed in that game
and throwing a ton.
He had 11 targets in that game.
So the key number, we've given a lot of numbers here.
The key number for me is that he's on pace
for 130 targets.
I hope that continues.
That's about seven and a half a game.
If he's on pace for 130 targets rest of season,
I think he's going to be really good, you know,
and he's their preferred end zone guy.
He had a touchdown called back two weeks ago against Washington.
Let's not forget that.
So that would be great.
If you can get seven or more targets per game,
that's probably going to be enough for Adunzee to be a must-start guy.
If they keep running the ball this well,
he's only had 11 targets in his last two games,
then we could have an issue.
But I think I would definitely hold.
I wouldn't sell.
I would buy lower hold on Udunzei.
I like that.
Aren't that many, how many wide receivers are we just putting in our lineup going,
oh, they're going to be great every week, right?
There just aren't that many.
Every week we're like, should we buy BTJ, I wouldn't.
Should we buy AJ Brown?
I wouldn't because there's like eight other receivers that I think are good buys.
And it's like, okay, I guess everyone's just not playing well a receiver right now.
Yeah.
Someone brought up a good comp here.
He's like Pickens on the Steelers.
Sort of.
You know, I don't know what Pickens.
Oh, on the Steelers, on the Steelers.
Oh, that's interesting.
I think he's better than that.
But Pickens on the Cowboys, I thought, was a pretty good comp.
Because I don't know what Pickens on the Cowboys is.
I think he had a 20% target share in this game, which was the highest in three games with Lamb.
So who would you rather have rest of season?
George Pickens or Romo Dunezai?
Pickens for me.
We've been ranking them in basically the same range,
through the Dunezai being a little bit higher because I think he has the chance to push into 28% target shares on an offense that could be really good.
but I mean if this continues then definitely pickens it's yeah
pickens pickings managed to have a pretty put together a pretty decent
game for a fantasy standpoint despite everything going against him from a game
script standpoint the environment just feels so much better for pickens like I feel like
the environment is much more likely to lift pickens than Oduinzei whereas he might
actually have to be fighting it Oduinzee to me actually profile is really similarly to
Drake London from an environmental standpoint the only difference is that I feel a lot
more confidence in London as like a target hog whereas like O'Donzee we haven't seen a lot of
that London we've seen it for like four or five years now yeah I feel more com I agree with that though
I do feel more confidence in Ben Johnson's ability to scheme O'Donzee open looks than then I guess
the Falcons or I guess maybe just Caleb Williams to get the football to him than Michael Panix
what's going to happen with O'Donzee a lot is Caleb Williams scrambles tries to extend the play
and he often looks for O'Donzee yeah did twice
in this game yesterday against the Saints
and he threw downfield to him twice
and both times Saints defensive back
Justin Reed the first time
Kool-Aid McKinstree the second time
they just made a good play
they knocked the ball out of Romo Dunesay's hands
but he had two opportunities
that's we gotta show you want to show something
I was about to sign off Jacob
you have another I saw something like a grab
No I was just looking but I mean
well I've got the floor let's talk about Colson Loveland
I'm excited about that I said that the first
I said that the first three target rates
for all the Bears were below 20% in week seven.
I was mistaken.
That was week six.
I just got to mix up week seven.
Come on.
Team high first retarded rate, 25%.
Colston Loveland tied with DJ Moore.
We could have it.
We could have it if Cole commits, I think, back injury.
Is that what I saw?
If that keeps him out.
Things have been training in the right direction with Loveland lately.
Can I just give Dan some credit for something?
We're very hard on Dan on this show, and we love that.
I mean, people love that.
I heated up some leftovers today.
I made a little circle on the plate.
Oh, you did.
Put the circle in the middle, put the food around the circle, right around the perimeter
of the plate.
Yes.
I think it worked.
I think it worked pretty well.
Right.
It heats it more evenly.
It was really good.
I don't understand the science, but obviously I did it.
Someone told me at once and I'd live by it.
Yeah, it's very good, you know?
Good for you.
Thank you, Dan.
Thank you all for watching and listening.
This is Beyond the Boxcore.
Three more episodes in the Beyond the Boxcore feed this week.
You could also go to YouTube.com slash fantasy football today to see our content.
And obviously, Johnny in the chat, I did not heat it up in plastic.
I took it out of the plastic and put it on a plate and then ate it on the plate.
All right.
Have a great day, everybody.
Oh, can you believe Game 7 is tonight?
We have two Monday Night Football games?
This sucks.
You can do not the today's age, like with YouTube TV at least.
that I use, you can watch both
at the same time. I guess.
All three at the same time, I'm sorry.
What do you get? Oh, you're talking about baseball. Sorry.
Yeah. I mean, I won't be watching the baseball game personally,
but I respect it. It's game seven, and I would
if it wasn't for the Monday night games, but I got massive
fantasy implications in these games across the board.
It's a sacrificial lamb game
tonight in baseball, because it's just, whoever wins
is just going to get destroyed by the Dodgers.
By the Dodgers, yeah. The Dodgers are just, it's insane
that roster. And everyone's like,
well, they've built it. What have they built? It's not like
they've just bought this team.
They haven't built a team.
They bought a lot of it.
All right, thanks.
They bought it well.
They did.
They spent well.
They spent editing the Yankees and Mets, that's for sure.
We'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today.
See you.
See you.
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