Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score for Week 2; Five Big Topics (09/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: September 19, 2022

Jacob Gibbs and Dan Schneier join the show to give their thoughts on snap counts, third down roles, target share, the Bucs run-heavy tendencies and more. First, we talk about the Bears-Packers game (...2:00)! Are Justin Fields, Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney total busts? Allen Lazard, yikes! ... Updating you on the latest news (9:05) including a suspension for Mike Evans and then we'll give you some fancy schmancy stats (14:10) you won't see in the box score. Which players have exciting roles that could pay off for your Fantasy team? ... Five Big Topics! Who are the next breakouts (27:45)? Why didn't we draft Cooper Kupp #1 overall (31:40)? How concerned are we about the Broncos (36:50)? Which veteran players are concerning us (43:05)? What do we think about Tom Brady (46:50)? ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:16 Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, baby. Advanced stats, expert analysis. I shouldn't say that as if we don't have expert analysis on the other shows. We're still working. We've got the name of the show, Beyond the Box Score. Now I'm working on the tagline. So we'll get that for next week.
Starting point is 00:01:58 Welcome, everybody, to a Monday afternoon edition of Fantasy Football Today. We do things a little bit differently on Monday afternoon. We look at snap counts, third downs, blitzes, things that I don't even know what we're going to talk about. It's Jacob and Dan are going to surprise me with some things. I've started to get into first down run
Starting point is 00:02:17 and pass percentage inspired by Jacob Gibbs. Yeah, yeah. Jacob, you are wearing a Mortal Kombat shirt. Who's your character if you're playing Mortal Kombat? Who do you fight with? His name is actually Nightwolf, and he's not in a lot of the new games. But otherwise, I'm going with Scorpion, of course.
Starting point is 00:02:35 Oh, over Sub-Zero. Get over here, yeah. Okay, come here! And I know, that's Sub-Zero. Schneier, what film have've been grinding on today, other than the Giants? Well, I started with some Giants tape, and now we got to be all good on that.
Starting point is 00:02:51 Started with some Giants tape, and then I started watching the Bengals because I'm trying to figure out, this has been my biggest surprise of the season. This Bengals offensive line, despite the additions they made, big-time additions too. I mean, L. Collins was one of the best right tackles
Starting point is 00:03:03 in the NFL last year. They're struggling, and it's not like teams are blitzing them. So I'm trying to figure out and get to the bottom of that and see if that's something that will change fast. So fantasy managers can buy low here on some bangles, or if it could be an issue all year to the point where I don't want to suggest that moving forward. Okay. Well, let's talk about Sunday night football. That was one of the, I did go and review every, every throw that Justin Fields made. Justin Fields made all 11 of them.
Starting point is 00:03:30 It didn't take long. What's going on with Darnell Mooney? I mean, Justin Fields is really missing on some big opportunities. He's just not, he did not play well on Sunday night. They were definitely, I saw a few plays where he could have had huge gains, including the first throw he made was on a flea flicker. And he got a 30-yard gain to EQ St. Brown. And if he had just looked at Darnell Mooney,
Starting point is 00:03:50 if he had a split second more, Darnell Mooney was wide open, 55-yard touchdown with a good throw. But anyway, Dan, what are your major takeaways from Green Bay 27 and Chicago 10? Well, I think that's the major takeaway. It's not just the missed opportunities from Fields for me. It's this is the exact thing that happens. It plays out every time we act like it's not going to happen. But when you feel an offensive line like the Bears tried to field this season, and if you look across the board at all five of those positions, there's not there. A
Starting point is 00:04:18 case can be made, especially after they gave up Daniels and free agency last offseason, which, again, I just never understood. A case can be made. They don't really have anyone who would be starting on an NFL roster right now. I mean, that's a bit of an exaggeration. I haven't looked at some of these desperate situations across the NFL, but they at least don't have anyone who would be considered a plus starter right now on that offensive line. And yes, fields made some left some field throws on the field, no pun intended there. But at the same time, it's very hard to play behind an offensive line like this because you lose confidence as a quarterback. You rush your entire process up. You speed that up post
Starting point is 00:04:49 and pre-snap. And I just think this isn't going to get any better this year. They don't have anyone to get excited about on this offensive line. Of course, literally, it will get better. He's not going to throw 11 passes. His stats will get better, but I don't think the offensive line will get better. To be honest with you, I I don't think the offensive line will get better. To be honest with you, I was pretty impressed with their line in the run game. I mean, they were really plowing through the Packers. I was surprised by that.
Starting point is 00:05:15 But Jacob, I mean, are we pretty much just done starting the Bears? I mean, Montgomery was started in only 64% of leagues. And of course, he goes off for 136 total yards. You know, but like Mooney and Komet, there's no way I can trust. I can trust them. Are we dropping them? Like, where are you on the bears? Jacob.
Starting point is 00:05:29 I'm fine dropping commit. If you need to, you're definitely not dropping Mooney. And really I would prefer to wait and see with both of them. We have a larger sample size of them drawing fantasy relevant volume, even in a really, you know, dysfunctional offense last year.
Starting point is 00:05:42 So yeah, it's going to get better. So I would prefer not to drop them. But yeah, I agree with what Dan said. The offensive line is really a problem right now. They did run the ball well against Green Bay, but that's pretty easy to do. I'm pretty worried about the Bears.
Starting point is 00:05:53 I'm definitely taking a wait and see and not starting any of them next week, except for Montgomery if I have to. Okay, on the Packers side of the ball, Jacob, give me your big takeaways from the Packers. They just played a pretty conservative game. They had the ball for 37 minutes and 15 seconds. Aaron Rodgers scored 20 fantasy points on only 25 pass attempts. Aaron Jones was a monster. A.J. Dillon had his chances, but didn't really have a good game, and he had a fumble, but he had 19 touches. And then no
Starting point is 00:06:19 receiver had more than four targets. That stood out. So Jacob, give me your thoughts on the Packers real quick. Yeah, it's really spread out. Like you mentioned, um, with the targets, not really reaching high for any of those players. They were, you know, getting the rookies on the field, trying to get Christian Watson involved a little bit on and around stuff like that. That was exciting to see. I thought they might roll with just, you know, the three old guys for a while here, but they're already keeping those guys involved, which is dope. Um, for the running backs. Yeah. What we've seen from Aaron Jones is super, super exciting. Back-to-back weeks now that they've moved him outside of the backfield a lot.
Starting point is 00:06:52 And I think it's going to – it's definitely already, like, led to improvement in his route involvement rate. And I think that that's going to lead to more targets over a larger sample size. So I'm super, super stoked for him. And he looked great as a rusher, which he always does. But yeah, outside of that, nothing really stood out. It's about what we expect with Dylan, just low efficiency on this one, unfortunately. Yeah, it was a really run-heavy game.
Starting point is 00:07:15 I don't know what to make of Dylan. I think he's basically going to... I like him. I still like him a lot. He's going to be a big part of the offense, there's no question. And when they have the right matchup, when they're going to win a game, I don't know what to think next week at Tampa Bay. That's going to be a big part of the offense, there's no question. And when they have the right matchup, when they're going to win a game, I don't know what to think next week at Tampa Bay. That's going to be a really interesting one. I think they're hopefully going to have to throw him all,
Starting point is 00:07:32 although Tampa Bay, not going to have Mike Evans, probably not going to have Chris Godwin, don't know about Julio Jones, so maybe this is just a running game, I don't know. But, you know, Dylan, look, he's probably a good start, not a great start. So we won't spend too much time on him. Alan Lazard though. I was really disappointed, Dan. He ran the most routes. He, let me see if I have the, the green Bay routes were 26 for Lazard.
Starting point is 00:07:56 And the next most after that was Sammy Watkins with 18, Aaron Jones with 18. So he played the most, he ran the most routes, scored a touchdown. Do you think he, he was, he gets more of a true number one role going forward, or is it going to stay spread out? So on the positive side, when it comes to, obviously, looking forward with Alan Lazard, he's their best blocking receiver, and this is a team that is going to want to run, especially on the perimeter.
Starting point is 00:08:21 That's where they can run best with Aaron Jones. So that's good. It'll keep him on the field. But I don't really see him evolving into what you just mentioned any kind of true target hog any kind of true number one here not only just based on the based on the rotation they're using but also he just doesn't command targets he never has in his career i still think he has a chance to like round out into wide receiver three range because i think the red zone role will eventually be there for him and he's going to get up close to double-digit touchdowns when all is said and done after 17 games.
Starting point is 00:08:48 But I can't view him as anything more than a back-end wide receiver three right now. All right. Yeah, I'm more optimistic just because I was more optimistic and hopefully this game is not a sign of things to come for Alan Lazard. But, you know, not a great start.
Starting point is 00:09:02 Three targets. And like I said, nobody had more than four targets. It was very, very evenly distributed. But there was a game... Oh, the Chargers game was like that in week one, remember? Nobody had more than four targets for the Chargers, and that changed completely with Mike Williams in week two. Agreed, but the problem is,
Starting point is 00:09:20 Williams commands targets. He wins at all three levels. I'm not sure there's any level Alan's art wins at, except for when they line them up out of the slot and just give him a quick two way go like quick, quick in or outbreak or so. Yeah. I just feel like he doesn't command the target.
Starting point is 00:09:34 He's not Mike Williams. I'm not saying that, but no, I know that. I know it just, it's just a lesson of let's see what happens next week. No overreactions. Right.
Starting point is 00:09:41 Is the lesson. Hey, send us a five star review. Give us a five star review review on Apple Podcasts. It is a great way to get your questions read on the air, especially on our mailbag show. On Fridays, we record them. On Saturday, it publishes in the podcast feed.
Starting point is 00:09:54 So go to Apple Podcasts, find Fantasy Football today. Leave us a five-star review, and please put a comment in there, not just a question, but a comment on why you like the show. This is something that helps our show grow, get more eyeballs on it, and we'd really appreciate it. And then you can ask a question. And I don't read all of them, but I try to read a decent amount of them on the show.
Starting point is 00:10:12 You know, the ratio of, like, Apple podcast questions that get read on the show compared to emails that get read on the show, much higher for Apple podcasts. You can also send us an email, though. I respond to a lot of those at fantasyfootballatcbsi, the letter I,.com. And I love hearing from all of you as well. Injuries, news, and notes. email though i respond to a lot of those at fantasy football at cbsi the letter i.com and i love
Starting point is 00:10:25 hearing from all of you as well injuries news and notes trey lance broke his ankle he is out for the season we know that and um boy what do you guys think about picking up kenny pickett right now speculate would kenny pickett be better than Marcus Mariota and Jimmy Garoppolo if he got the job? Jacob Gibbs? I don't know about Mariota just because the rushing is exciting there. But yeah, I think especially if you just need to take a swing for the fences, Tommy Pickett is very exciting.
Starting point is 00:11:00 The wide receiver group there is awesome. And Pat Frymouth has had really encouraging underlying per route data through the first two games as well. So he's really got a full ensemble of weapons there. Yeah, I think he's worth a pickup because Trubisky has not looked good. All right, yeah, Superflex Leagues, if you're desperate right now,
Starting point is 00:11:17 a lot of people are. You know, Dak's struggling. Dak's out. Maybe not all that much longer. Dak could be back in week four. Perhaps week five is more realistic. Harry Jones was saying he might be back for week three, which is crazy.
Starting point is 00:11:28 I thought I just said that. I thought I just saw, sorry, that that is not happening. Okay. No, I knew that was always going to be a long shot. I want to make sure I'm not wrong about that. Oh, yeah. Steven Jones said that Dak Prescott will not play in week three. Could be week four or five.
Starting point is 00:11:45 All right. Okay. You know, the injury news, not going to lie. Other than Trey Lance, not that bad in week two. Yeah. Jerry Judy seems to be with day-to-day, which is great news. James Conner's ankle injury is not serious. Yep.
Starting point is 00:11:59 So we'll see how, you know, he might not, I don't know if he'll play this week, but at least it's not a serious thing. Mike Evans does have the one game suspension, probably not going to start Tom Brady against the Packers. Let's see if Godwin plays. Jameis Winston, you know, this is something, Dan, that I'm really excited about Michael Thomas. I had him as a winner on FFT today on the NHQ, but Jameis Winston is playing with these fractures in his back. And I wonder if we should be considering that when we evaluate Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, et cetera. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:12:29 I mean, what we heard is he can't do any further damage to it. It didn't look like he was playing his best football yesterday, but at the same time, like you mentioned earlier, it's a really tough matchup right now against this Bucks D they're rolling with Todd Bowles. And I think the even more interesting thing about yesterday was actually Chris Olave, who generated an absurd, absurd number of air yards. And in that game just looked like potentially a player who could, I don't want to say like
Starting point is 00:12:54 be a league winner down the stretch, but these rookies who tend to break out at the end do generate a lot of air yards, do generate a lot of opportunities. I'm sure Jacob has a few extra stats on this one because it's escaping me now. But did you see some of the stuff that Olave was able to do yesterday, Jacob? Yeah, it was super exciting for Olave. It was historic in terms of the amount of air yards that he demanded for someone that young. Well, Jacob, what about the rookie wide receivers in general? Because I know you study them a lot coming out of college and the types of routes they run
Starting point is 00:13:21 and how it's going to translate to the NFL. And so far, London, Dotson Olave. Yeah. Who am I forgetting? Garrett Wilson, Garrett Wilson leads the NFL in red zone and green zone targets. He had five red zone targets, I think in week two alone.
Starting point is 00:13:39 So yeah, it's, it's a great first round of wide receivers so far. Yeah. It's been like unbelievably encouraging. Garrett Wilson so far. Yeah, it's been unbelievably encouraging. Garrett Wilson looks like he just can't be covered out there. And I've been tweeting all the usage stats from week two, and you'll see Drake London and Garrett Wilson up at the top of the leaderboards in almost every single stat.
Starting point is 00:13:58 For them to be doing this already is really pretty unprecedented, especially considering they're both going into offenses that have what we thought were target hogs in elijah moore and cal pits and so far has not looked that way at all um and also especially for london the matchups have not been easy um and this past week for um pit or for uh gary wilson was not an easy matchup either against cleveland we just saw cleveland you know shut down dj moore in week one and then gary wilson just gets whatever he wants against them. So yeah, it really doesn't get much better than this
Starting point is 00:14:29 for a start to a rookie career, especially with top 10 picks that had really exciting collegiate data as well. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the top waiver wire priority for a lot of you because it doesn't look like the Cardinals' backfield right now is one that you're necessarily going to want to dip into. Hopefully, Conor can come back soon,
Starting point is 00:14:44 and even if he doesn't, it's not the most exciting picture. But we'll tell you more about the split in the snaps between Darrell Williams and Eno Benjamin and what we learn in just a bit. But Garrett Wilson is still available in about half our leagues, and that needs to change. Dalton Schultz has a knee injury. I don't get the sense that he's going to play in Week 3, but it's not a serious injury. It doesn't look like Dalton Schultz is going to go on IR. Michael Gallup also, he could be back this week,
Starting point is 00:15:09 but he would likely be on a snap count. We're going to check on Damian Harris's knee. I haven't seen anything on that. Hunter Renfro was evaluated for concussion, and that will pretty much, we have a lot of news, but I'll leave it at that because a lot of it's like offensive line and defensive backs and things like that. Jadeveon Clowney, though, is not going to play this week.
Starting point is 00:15:28 They have a Thursday game. All right, let's get into some advanced stats here, guys. Yeah, anything you want. You know, the floor is yours, Jacob. You can go with snap shares, usage rates, whatever you want to focus on. What do we need to know beyond the box score? We've already hit on some of the most exciting guys from this week with these rookie receivers.
Starting point is 00:15:50 One guy to definitely point out is Amonra St. Brown, and I would also throw Jalen Waddell in there. These guys are pretty obvious, but I just want to emphasize how ridiculous what they're doing is. So since week 13 of last year, Amonra is just the guy. It's him and cooper cup at 225 and 211 fantasy points the next closest is 165. he's been he's been targeted on 34 of his routes which is the highest of any player during that time um last year the league leader was 31.5
Starting point is 00:16:19 i believe he's at 34. he's just dominating and like he's not only sustaining what we saw last year with deandre swift and hawkinson off the field he's elevating that with them on the field like he is being targeted way higher rate on first downs than we saw last year which is really important those worth 20 more ppr points and they just indicate the team is trying to get the guy the ball um that's the big change that i've noticed with um asb is that last year he was kind of the no one is open jared goff just is going to go to curse. Am I allowed to do that? No, I don't think you are. I have got to. Wow. Okay. I think that's my first one. That's my bad. Just let it slip. Uh, nobody's open. I'm just
Starting point is 00:16:57 throwing it to ASB cause he's probably open this year. It's like, we're getting the ball in his hands. He like first downs, we're going to him every single time. Um, it's really, really exciting what we've seen from him. And then why do I think I hit it in last week? It's just the route depth increase is route depth is 40% deeper than it was last year. His average target is 30% deeper. And we saw him,
Starting point is 00:17:16 you know, just pile up the air yards, um, and targets in week two. And it's just like, defenses can't focus on either of one of these guys. They're going to keep dominating. Yeah. They're going to keep dominating. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:25 They're going to keep bleeping dominating, right? Adam runs a tight ship here. Jacob, you expect to receive a bar of soap in the mail. You'll be expected on your own time to wash your mouth out. I get excited about the sun God. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:17:37 I respect it. Yeah. How about you, Dan? Anything jump out at you? So I'll go with the three games I've seen so far on the all 22, looking back on true media and a couple of these, I did watch on the game replay as well.
Starting point is 00:17:49 So mixed in a bit of both, whatever I had time for. The first one will be the dolphins. I think there's a non-zero chance here that Mike McDaniel is the next Sean McVay, Kyle Shan, whatever you want to call it offensive guy to come in and just really take the league by storm with his schemes and with his ability to create easy separation for his wide receivers. Yes, it helps when you have Jalen Waddle and Tyree kill, but if you look at some of the things they did schematically, really playing perfectly to to his skillset and also at the same time, threatening the opposing
Starting point is 00:18:18 defense with just an insane amount of vert or horizontal spacing. Like they made, they made the Raven to, I'm sorry, to, and McDaniel made the Ravens cover an insane amount of ground yesterday, and I think he's going to continue to do that to teams, McDaniel. And I now feel like this offense has a lot bigger, higher of a ceiling than I thought going into the season. That's something where it is a buy high if you're going to buy now. I don't mind it. I don't mind buying high on Tua in super flex leagues.
Starting point is 00:18:41 I'd love to buy high on him right now. And really, I think it will keep up for both of those two receivers as well. Another takeaway I had again from that bangles game earlier is look, there are real big issues right now with this bangles offensive line. Some people say that it's because they didn't play together in the preseason. There's new guys. Continuity is always a factor when it comes to evaluating offensive line play, but they're losing one-on-one battles. It's not an issue of them getting out skiing right now with blitzes by the opposing defensive coordinators leading to free rushers. They're losing one-on-ones. And ultimately I've always kind of felt like Taylor was a fake sharp
Starting point is 00:19:12 as a coach. I'll be honest with you. I never really liked it. I'm sure Jacob might hold the same opinion based on that lab, but I felt like he's a fake sharp. He made the super bowl. Good. God bless. Good for you. Joe Burrow was on a heater. Chase was on a heater. Lou Anarumo ran a really good defense last year for them schematically. But so I'm kind of not in the buy high for the Bengals. I'm almost in the maybe sell low or hold that best there. And the final thing is the Panthers, man. Ben McAdoo is running one of the least creative and worst schematic offenses I've seen there. They failed to get Christian McCaffrey. It doesn't look like they have any kind of plan for utilizing Christian McCaffrey skills in the passing game. So that scares the
Starting point is 00:19:47 hell out of me with Christian McCaffrey. Baker Mayfield is terrible under pressure. His ball placement, even when he wasn't under pressure, was bad. He was not playing the position well at all. He's always under pressure. What'd you say? He's always under pressure. He was always under pressure a lot in that game based on the game plan. But I mean, look, he's not somebody who I think can dig them out of situations where he's forced to go off platform and make all these kinds of throws. And I just feel like that offense reminded me a lot of the Ben McAdoo offense in his final days with the Giants.
Starting point is 00:20:14 Just nothing schemed up, trying to win with quick game and one-on-ones in the same personnel packages. So I'm not feeling good about my Christian McCaffrey share right now. I'll be honest. I guess I'll just, I mean, I'll just disagree on the Bengals specifically. I trust they're going to figure it out. It's sloppy. They had a bad offensive line last year,
Starting point is 00:20:40 and they still were plenty productive. Joe Mixon was a top five running back. T. Higgins was good when he played. Jamar Chase was a top six or something. I don't remember where he finished. Top six wide receiver. They just have too much talent to me. I think they'll figure it out.
Starting point is 00:20:55 And I just, I've been shocked at how poorly the line has been playing. I can't imagine they have anywhere to go but up right now. So, yeah, I do feel like if they do play this poorly up front, then it is going to be a long season and it's going to be frustrating. But if they get it together or at least just be average, then I think the bangles will turn things around. The, the, the Panthers have no identity right now.
Starting point is 00:21:16 I just don't know what kind of team they want to be, why they're throwing a shy Smith so much there. And you know what? You talk about Ben McAdoo, but he might be head coach. He might be interim head coach, Ben McAdoo. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:29 So I, I, you know, so I don't know who they turned to, but, um, but they're, uh,
Starting point is 00:21:33 they're lost. However, McCaffrey is still so involved in getting so many touches that worst case scenario, in my opinion would be McCaffrey would perform like a low, like a, like a 12th overall player, not second or third overall player.
Starting point is 00:21:46 He may not win you the league, but I don't think he's going to lose you the league. I'd say you agree with that. So long as he stays healthy. Yes. I agree with that. You just, you expect them,
Starting point is 00:21:54 you expect him to scheme out a passing role for him every week. That should be the focal point. So it's just, it's just interesting to see there. And one more thing on the bangles point, I think this has not been said. After watching the tape, you can kind of see this. Burrow's not playing at the same level he played at last year.
Starting point is 00:22:12 Maybe that's because of missed time in the offseason with the surgery and no preseason snaps, all the things we've talked about. But this is not all on the offensive line. There are some sacks that he took that were on the quarterback. And in general, he just doesn't look to be playing at that same clicking rhythm level he was at last year. And he'll get there. That I feel more confident in. All right.
Starting point is 00:22:29 I want to go through some. Oh, go ahead, Jacob. I was going to say, on CMC, his route involvement rate was down a little bit this week. And it was down just a little bit in week one, but it was more pronounced this week. Only ran around on 24 of 36 dropbacks, which is still good, but is not what we're used to with CMC and could be a problem. Well, I mean, when you are scouting a team and you see they gave up two touchdown catches to Dontrell Hilliard in week one, easy ones.
Starting point is 00:22:54 Was it two or was it one? It was two, right? How do you not take advantage of that with Christian McCaffrey? It just makes no sense. All right, some snapsha, some third down stuff. Javante Williams, this was a very encouraging game for Javante Williams. You hope it continues, but you can't guarantee that it will. He had six red zone snaps.
Starting point is 00:23:14 Melvin Gordon had one. Javante had six goal-to-go carries or snaps, I think. Melvin Gordon had zero. In week one, it was pretty much even. They both had five goal-to-go snaps, not carries, snaps. It was all Javante in week two. Here were your leaders in third-down snaps. Jacob, tell me what stands out to you. Your leaders in third-down snaps at the running back position. Fournette, Barkley, McKissick, McCaffrey, Swift, Ramondre Stevenson. He had 11 compared to seven for Damian
Starting point is 00:23:41 Harris. Darrell Williams had 10 third-down snaps compared to 1 for Eno Benjamin. Eckler, Kareem Hunt, McKinnon. Did I say him? No, I said McKissick earlier. McKissick, both are on there. Jeff Wilson, Rex Burkhead, Amir Abdullah, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne.
Starting point is 00:23:59 We probably passed the ones that really matter. But what stood out to you, third-down snap leaders? Ramondre, you definitely hit on that. That is important. He did not have a great game, but his usage was exciting. He was on the field a lot. And so if he's going to be in that role, I think that we've got a small sample size of him drawing targets
Starting point is 00:24:16 at a pretty high rate at the collegiate level and as a rookie. And I would expect to be much more productive than we saw last week. I think Jerry McKinnon is really important to point out too because people are really excited about Clyde because he had the touchdowns week one, week two, he had the big run. He looked really explosive, which we haven't seen in a while, but like the usage is still not there and the snaps aren't there. And he's coming off the field on passing downs all the time. And it just seems like it's unsustainable. Like last week was a, almost, there wasn't touchdowns but it was almost a best case outcome for Clyde with that usage and it wasn't that great he had like 15 points or
Starting point is 00:24:50 something like um if McKinnon is going to retain that role that's going to be a problem for for CEH uh Michael Carter is clearly the the passing downs guy he ran a ton of routes what do you got I've got a good one on the Jets. Brees Hall basically lost his passing down work to Ty Johnson. If you wonder, why did Brees Hall go from 10 targets to 1 or whatever it was, he wasn't playing. He ran 8 routes. I can't make sense of that one. Pick a running back.
Starting point is 00:25:17 Pick a Jets running back rest of season. Brees Hall. Yeah, it's still Brees Hall for me too. I'm looking to win championships down the stretch run. I don't care about what's going to happen now. The few points more Carter can get for the time being. Yeah, Carter's not bad though. That's the thing.
Starting point is 00:25:33 He's not a bad player. He's a good talent. It's definitely possible that Carter is the right answer though because if this persists, if they don't like Brees Hall on passing downs, then he may never get a three-down roll. Whereas if Brees Hall gets injured, Michael Carter could actually play a three-down roll.
Starting point is 00:25:48 We saw him in it last year, and he was really good. Yeah. Okay. Darrell Williams, I gave you one snap. Sorry, one stat about the third-down snaps was all Darrell Williams, not Eno Benjamin. Also, Darrell Williams, according to Dave, had 10 of 10 snaps
Starting point is 00:26:05 inside the 10-yard line. If you're trying to decide which running back do I want in that Cardinals backfield, Darrell Williams was more involved in the passing game. He ran more routes. I want to make sure about that. Yeah, he ran 22 routes. Oh, he ran 22.
Starting point is 00:26:21 This is interesting. Darrell Williams was on the field for the third downs, yet they ran the same amount of routes in the second half, 22 ran 22. So this is interesting. Darrell Williams was on the field for the third downs, yet they ran the same amount of routes in the second half, 22 to 21. They got Eno out of the backfield quite a bit. 15% of his snaps came in the slot. Oh, I'm sorry. It was actually 17-17 in the second half. They both ran 17 routes in the second half,
Starting point is 00:26:40 but they were down 20 to nothing. So they're obviously going to be throwing a lot. But Williams was the third down guy, and he was the green zone guy inside the 10-yard line. You know, Michael Thomas only played 76% of the snaps. That did lead all Saints wide receivers. But do you think we can get Michael Thomas up to like 90% of the snaps? That'd be nice, right?
Starting point is 00:27:04 Mm-hmm. Anything else? Anything i'm missing here i would just say that thomas's average route depth is way up from what we've seen in the past they're using him downfield way more yep um and they're kind of using landry in the underneath role and he's done well when running those types of routes throughout his career and he's continuing to get better and if you look at his route tree it's's changed drastically. I tweeted this in week one, kind of a joke. He ran like 2% of his routes were slants in week one. And his go route was up to like 35% or something. And when it was normally like 16, 17%, he's like running a completely different route. I'm really excited to dig into week two. I haven't looked at it yet, but with his route depth being 11 yards again, I assume it was pretty much the same.
Starting point is 00:27:41 All right, guys, we'll take a break. When we come back, we've got five big topics. Everyone in the chat is freaking out about the Denver Broncos. Do we share your concerns? We'll talk about Russell Wilson. We'll talk about Tom Brady and a very different look to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense through two games post-Bruce Arians. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Welcome back. It is time for five big topics.
Starting point is 00:28:04 These are from our listeners. We thank you very much. Topic number one is from John Rodriguez. After two weeks, are there any stats or data that suggest who the next breakout guy is? Who would they bet would be the next guy? I think Jacob already nailed this one. I think he's going to agree when I say it's Amon Ross St. Brown.
Starting point is 00:28:23 Yeah, I think he's already there. Yeah, that's technicality. I think we've also, we when I say it's Amon Ross St. Brown. Yeah, I think he's already there. Yeah, that's technicality. I think we've also, we've hit on Drake. When you say Adam, that's not a fair. I mean, he wasn't drafted. I mean, he is already, yeah. Well, I'm, okay, I'm not quite there yet with Amon Ross St. I definitely, he's a must start.
Starting point is 00:28:39 He's the man. I wish I had drafted him more. I suck for not drafting him more. I just, I pointed it out before the show. I pointed out before the week, I pointed it out last night. This is about as good of a matchup as you can get. Washington is horrible against slot receivers.
Starting point is 00:28:53 They were last year. They were in week one. Christian Kirk at 112 yards. I think they were again in week two. Week one. Wasn't that great of a game for a modern St. Brown. He hit some,
Starting point is 00:29:02 I forget what it was like eight for 68 and a touchdown. The usage was excellent. The volume and the usage. Yeah, I love him. I just don't know if he's like a top five guy. I don't know if he's a top 12 guy, but I would say he's definitely top 18, and I completely regret not having him.
Starting point is 00:29:17 But I do think this may have been one of the best matchups for a slot receiver. If this usage continues, though, there's almost no way he can't finish in the top 12 if it continues. Drake London and Chris Lave we've hit on, but I think they're both guys who haven't quite broken out,
Starting point is 00:29:33 maybe in the way Garrett Wilson did with the two touchdown week yet, and the usage suggests that they could, and they're really exciting prospects. Rashad Bateman, he's not running all the routes. He's only been in, I think, running around on like two-thirds of Baltimore's dropbacks through the first two games,
Starting point is 00:29:51 which I think will increase. And his per route numbers have been really good. He was really, really good in college when we saw him finally get the wide receiver one role. And I think it's possible that he is somebody who's a little bit undervalued, even though he's been, you know, producing. I think it could get even better. And then the last one I bring up is Jacoby Myers.
Starting point is 00:30:08 His per-route data is insane. There's only like seven or eight guys who have a higher target and yard per-route than Jacoby Myers. And we've seen this from Jacoby before, and it's not that exciting, but they're throwing a little bit more, and his rates are better. He continues to get better each year. He's completely dominating the volume. Devontae Parker's barely involved at all.
Starting point is 00:30:26 Yeah, which is really surprising. Yeah, I think two guys on a higher end that look like they could have special seasons are Devontae Williams and DeAndre Swift. And both of them need to sort of come out of their committees a little bit. But Swift is just so good right now. I mean, he has a 50-yard run in each of his first two games
Starting point is 00:30:43 and a 20-plus-yard catch in each of his first two games and a 20-plus yard catch in each of his first two games. He barely played in Week 2, and he was incredible. So I'm hoping that they can give him the work that he needs to be amazing and that he can withstand the workload. And if you want a little piece of data to back up the potential, Swift being the next breakout here. The Lions are averaging, this is one of the most insane stats of the season so far, 3.8 yards before contact that lion's offensive line 3.8 that's insane that's unheard of type numbers that offensive line i've been watching some of the film on them they're playing so well in unison they've had to put some different guys like they've had to put backups in they weren't
Starting point is 00:31:21 expecting didn't skip a beat they have the best center in the NFL, in my opinion. They also potentially are... Pinesa Wall is soon going to be one of the best tackles in the NFL. He's on that trajectory. So, yeah, just keep an eye on that. That offensive line right now is playing better than anyone in the NFL in the run game by far. And Frank Ragnow didn't even play in Week 2. He didn't play in this game, right.
Starting point is 00:31:39 They had to go with a backup in this game. Right. They don't think it's a long-term issue. All right. Next topic from Ramon Odisho. Why wasn't Cooper Cup number one overall in everyone's preseason rankings? Do we put too much stock in having to get an RB1 and in our abilities to predict who the tier one running backs will be?
Starting point is 00:31:58 Wide receivers just seem to be much more consistent and reliable. I think Dan Schneier is dying to get in here. Go ahead. What do you think? That's just me clapping in the background here. I had Cooper Cupp as a wide receiver one, and I said he is worth the first overall pick in a PPR league. We look at last season, Adam and Jacob, and it's just amazing to me that he can draw that kind of target share, be utilized in the way that no coach utilizes a receiver. This is the only, I mean, somewhat
Starting point is 00:32:23 Debo Samuel to some extent, but not with the same amount of volume Sean McVay schemes cup open early and often in all three levels of the field and specifically in the red zone and so he's just quite clearly the best receiver in the NFL for fantasy right now in my mind and it's not even close and Jefferson you can put him up there but I don't know if he's going to be able to do it at the same rate because they don't really design the offense for him he had a great first game but it's not the same way to design it for Cup. So I think schematically speaking, I'm all in on Cup. I agree with this take. I think you are fine to take receivers like Cup and Jefferson in the first pick overall in a PPR league. Yeah, it's fine. But I think, you know, look at a game. He wasn't even that great in week two and
Starting point is 00:33:03 he still was good. But I think there were plenty of reasons to doubt that Cooper Cupp would be as good as he was last year. He probably won't be, 1,900 yards or whatever. He had never done that before, and it was a pretty late breakout. And, you know, Jonathan Taylor last, you know, yesterday was pathetic. They barely got him the ball. But I'm still, if I'm redrafting today, I'm still taking Jonathan Taylor over everyone else.
Starting point is 00:33:26 And the reason is round three. I mean, round two, round three. Look at who was drafted. Tyreek Hill was drafted at the end of round two. And Keenan Allen was off too. I mean, I know Keenan Allen's barely played, but he... A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown.
Starting point is 00:33:41 You know, we like Mike Williams. Cortland Sutton's going to have a big year. It's just here, so far through two weeks, if you look at the top 12 wide receivers per game, only four of them were around one or two picks. If you look at the top 12 running backs per game through two games, which is crazy, I know to even look at such a small sample,
Starting point is 00:34:00 seven of them were around one or two picks. It's about position depth, and you know maybe cup is just the best player and that doesn't matter but god i just loved the wide receivers so much better in round three than i did the running backs it wasn't even close it's the age-old debate and fantasy the receiver is running back and position scarcity is the key reason that that you're bringing up adam and a big case can be made that that's the key reason you should be going running back also if you look at some of the winning teams over the last five years,
Starting point is 00:34:27 it is usually the team that does find the Jonathan Taylor last year, for example. But having said that, there were a lot of winning teams at Cooper Cup last year. There were a lot of winning rosters. Because he was drafted in the fifth round. True, he was drafted later.
Starting point is 00:34:38 Same goes for Kelsey. He was on a lot of winning rosters last year. But the other side of that argument, which is always the sticking point for me, is the anti-fragility argument, because there's just such a greater chance of these running backs getting hurt than these wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:34:51 And so for me, that's when I'm factoring in what I'm taking with my biggest capital, my first round pick, I'm looking at something like anti-fragility because I don't want to lose players for, I don't want to lose these players for games. Anti-fragility? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:03 That's a term? Yeah. Jacob, is that a term, Jacob? Yeah. That's a term? Yeah. Jacob, is that a term, Jacob? Yeah. That's not a term. Schooled him. Right on. Bang.
Starting point is 00:35:10 Bang. Snap, yes. That was a snap, yes. Beyond the box score. I love it. This is beyond the box score. Don't challenge me on beyond the box score. You can challenge me on the mailbag.
Starting point is 00:35:18 Never on beyond the box score. I love it. Anti-fragility. Learning so much. Yeah, okay. Who are some of the key injuries so far this year? Guys who are already hurt, who played in week one and are already hurt. Chris Godwin is one.
Starting point is 00:35:32 Keenan Allen is one. James Conner. James Conner. We'll see where that goes, but so far, I mean, obviously, Trey Lance. That was so disappointing for me. Because when I looked at the round two and three wide receivers over the past, like, four or five years to see who was a better bet, the running backs or the receivers,
Starting point is 00:35:50 50% of the wide receivers had been busts. I think it was rounds two or three in a 12-team league, and 50% of them were total busts, like crap picks, and almost all of them were injury reasons. It wasn't performance with wide receivers. It actually shed some light to me that wide receivers are actually a lot more injury prone than we think. At times, it had been guys like Calvin Ridley last year.
Starting point is 00:36:14 Odell Beckham had some seasons like that. I mean, obviously, I'm more worried about running backs getting hurt. They get hit all the time. But wide receivers get hurt too. You know? Yeah yeah it's just the rates are not totally equal i know maybe in recent years you can you can look at some of the data and i am pulling this out of my my behind as i don't want to pull a jacob and curse on the yeah thank you thank you have adam rain down on me but i think if we do dig back on this we'll
Starting point is 00:36:41 see that there is a much higher bust rate from an injury standpoint for those top end Ronnie. Yeah, I think so. All right, Jacob, let's try not to curse on this one. Everybody else will want to curse. Topic number three comes from Robert Thomas, our Facebook moderator.
Starting point is 00:36:53 Make sure you join our Facebook group. Awesome. Awesome group. Uh, just friends hanging out, talking fantasy football. And, um,
Starting point is 00:37:00 Robert Thomas does an amazing job moderating that. But his question is, uh, search fantasy football today on Facebook. His question is, Broncos, dot, dot, dot, concern, question mark. It is going to be hard for me not to curse. Jerry Judy comes out in week two after looking excellent week one. He draws a target on three of five routes run.
Starting point is 00:37:22 They're just going to him immediately, and he's going to dominate Houston. Like, of course. And then like he goes down and Cortland Sutton proceeds to do what he does when Judy's not in the field, which is ball out. And like, it's just frustrating as somebody who's been so excited for Judy and told everyone that like, he's the guy like Sutton is really good. But like, I think Judy's the one that, why does everyone.
Starting point is 00:37:41 I think that's true. And hopefully Judy comes back, but like, if he's out, like Sutton's going to continue to ball out, like his splits without duties are really good. And I mean, KJ Hamler's out too. And Alberto is doing nothing. Like it's Sutton and Javante.
Starting point is 00:37:55 Right. But the, okay. But people are freaking out a lot, a lot of people, a lot of football fans think that Russell Wilson is, I hate the word. Yeah. But they should say washed up, of course,
Starting point is 00:38:06 because washed isn't a real term. Washed is what you do to laundry. But they think Russell Wilson is not that good anymore. There was a Denver Post headline that said, thank goodness Russell Wilson grabbed the wheel of clown car from clueless Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett. That was a Denver Post headline. They are having trouble breaking the huddle early
Starting point is 00:38:26 enough. Their fans are counting down the play clock for them. They are out of sorts for sure. They look like they have a rookie head coach. So, you know, I want to be optimistic. And I want to be optimistic because I was so optimistic in the preseason. I don't want to be
Starting point is 00:38:42 blind to it, but I'm still optimistic. The biggest trouble here for me, they have the second, Russell Wilson has the second most red zone and he's tied for the most green zone pass attempts. Green zone is for me inside the 10 yard line. He has not thrown a touchdown in the green zone. There are six quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:38:57 with 10 to 12 green zone pass attempts. Wilson's one of them. They all have three touchdowns from that range, three or more, except for Wilson. He has zero. They are eighth in the NFL in yards per play. Eighth in yards per
Starting point is 00:39:10 game. They are like 25th in points per game. 26th in points per game. So they cannot finish a drive. The play calling is very suspect. Hackett himself called himself out. But, you know, Dan, overall, your concerns about the Broncos offense yeah so for me i i
Starting point is 00:39:27 have a lot of short-term concern with the broncos offense i think it can eventually get figured out but what we're seeing is exactly what you just said an offense that's in disarray it's a new head coach trying to install a system that quite frankly is so different than anything russell wilson's played in during his career with the seahawks that means you have not only means the typical things you have to learn the new terminology, but you also have to just learn a totally different set of philosophy for how to run an offense, throw in all that. They've had an insane number of injuries at receiver. That's screwing up the timing and the chemistry between Russell Wilson and receivers, not just from on the field when he throws the ball to them and they have to be in the right spot to where he's trying to throw the ball.
Starting point is 00:40:03 It's things like you said, lining up, right. Getting them ready before the snap, getting the snap called before, you know, the clay clock winds down to five, three, four, two, and the defense can jump it and figure out how to time the snap. All of those issues are going to be there because Tim Patrick's done for the year. Jerry Judy's now a little hurt. They're not utilizing any of the other guys. You said handlers hurt, but throwing the running backs and Sutton, and that's not a way to run an offense.. You said Handler's hurt. They're throwing the running backs and Sutton. And that's not a way to run an offense. It's going to take time here.
Starting point is 00:40:28 They have a coach who I don't believe in, to be quite frank. And I do have some short-term concern for this, especially because you bring up a stat about Russell Wilson that his entire career he's been a plus red zone passer. Now all of a sudden he's one of the worst in the NFL at that, or at least through these two weeks. And the worst part about all this, Adam, for me, is he hasn't had tough matchups. I know. The Seups i know they're gonna be a really bad defense this year so are the
Starting point is 00:40:49 texans eventually they may not be as bad as people think but eventually they will be anytime you have lovey smith running a defense in 2022 it will eventually be one of the worst in the nfl so ultimately it's just the truth look at him but um it's a harsh truth but we'll see if that plays out but anyway yeah i have a lot of short-term concern there adam and long term i feel like they Look at him. It's a harsh truth, but we'll see if that plays out. But anyway, yeah, I have a lot of short-term concern there, Adam. And long-term, I feel like they can get it together because they'll eventually learn the offense. Eventually, the timing will get better, all things of that nature.
Starting point is 00:41:13 But right now, I definitely have some concern. I don't think their schedule is that tough, though. I mean, San Francisco, Vegas, Colts, Chargers, that's tough. Jets, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Panthers. It's really not that bad. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I'm just like, okay, Russell Wilson has had a couple of almost touchdowns, right?
Starting point is 00:41:35 Cortland Sutton almost came down in bounds. They had a play. They've had a few plays in the red zone against Seattle that were, you know, close. So, you know, I got into a debate with Heath on HQ this afternoon, Carson Wentz or Russell Wilson rest of season. He said he'd take Carson Wentz. That was before the good news on Jerry Judy came out.
Starting point is 00:41:55 I don't know how he feels, if he feels differently now. Jacob, who would you rather have rest of season, Wilson or Wentz? I'd rather have rest. I think the points that you brought up on a team level, especially with the touchdown regression that's likely to come um on those red zone throws um are good ones and I think that like the offense is going to bounce back they're throwing um at above on first downs in a neutral situations which is something I was hoping to see hoping to see them play with pace we've seen that a little bit um I think this past offense would be better unless
Starting point is 00:42:24 Russ like truly is washed but um that would be a surprise after what we saw last year washed up washed up yeah a.j johnson says dan talking a lot of forbidden jacob word about and i stand by it a.j i stand by it a.j this guy this man lovey smith once made me feel like i finally i'm wisconsin badgers fan i finally felt like we had a five-star recruit graham mertz his his first start ever. He threw for five touchdowns against Lovie Smith defense that was literally running the entire game a strict cover two zone. And so after that game, and then Graham Mertz has been awful since, after that game I decided that anyone who runs into that Lovie Smith defense
Starting point is 00:42:56 can look like an all-pro. And so you'll see. Just wait for it. Just wait for it. Yeah, by the way, single coverage with Derek Stingley on Cortland Sutton for a decent chunk of that game. A rookie. Yeah, not a great.
Starting point is 00:43:10 I'm good for Stingley for fighting, but not a great. He also got hurt, Stingley. He got hurt late in that game. Louis George, topic number four, Toy Story. Your old favorites like Woody completely replaced by shiny new toys like Buzz. Who is hanging on and who is in the yard sale? C, Terry McLaurin, Zeke, Devante Smith. Devante Smith doesn't quite fit that.
Starting point is 00:43:32 But, Dan, what do you think? You got a friend in me. What do you think about this question here? I love when you break out into, like, the song version. The Atom A's are singing the songs. You're actually pretty good with it. That kind of sounded like whoever sings that song. Randy Newman sounds like Randy Newman.
Starting point is 00:43:50 Is that the same guy who does the short people song? I love the short people song. I don't know. Short people got no business. I think it is. Somebody remember that. But as far as like a few good ones are brought up, maybe someone could say Michael Carter,
Starting point is 00:44:03 if Reese Hall fits the bill, just based on expectation. I don't know. I think that one's a little bit of a stretch. I'm trying to think of some other ones that we can go. I'm just going through the games right now. If Devonta counts, if second-year player counts, then you could throw Elijah Moore and Kyle Pitts into that group. They've essentially been replaced by London and Wilson, it looks like.
Starting point is 00:44:24 Kyle Pitts. Don't even get me started. I know. Yeah, it's super sad. Adam Heath and I talked this offseason about some historic underlying data for Elijah Moore Pitts and Jalen Waddell and how that would translate this year with the shiny new toys. And of that group, Waddell's the only one who's been able to sustain those rates with Tyreek Hill there, which is just really, really impressive what we've seen from him. I think a lot of that just comes down to coaching,
Starting point is 00:44:46 like McDaniel scheming waddle open versus whatever the hell is going on Atlanta. This is just unexplained, unexplainable and unacceptable to be completely honest. Like you have an unbelievable mismatch and this is all you can get out of him. But I think that's a great point. Drake London is potentially right now before our eyes taking over that number one target hog role away from kyle pitts which no one expected
Starting point is 00:45:09 yeah it's two games i'm not quite ready to say that drake london will will lead the team in in receiving um at least maybe not from this point out i feel like pitts is just too good you know he'll get open, and I'm hopeful. McLaurin definitely is. We talk about it a lot. He's good. He's good. He's not bad.
Starting point is 00:45:31 You don't have to trade him away or anything like that, but I think there are too many mouths to feed. How much do you guys, real quick, we'll go to our last one after this. How much do you believe in Carson Wentz? And maybe not, how much do you believe in the passing offense? Because the concept of them having a terrible defense and throwing a ton, it's not the worst concept in the world here.
Starting point is 00:45:48 It could help. But I still think, you know, Sam Darnold averaged almost 300 yards per game in the first four games of last season. Wentz is better than that. But I still think he's going to be pretty disappointing at the end of the year. Yeah, I mean, it would be no surprise
Starting point is 00:46:03 for it to fall apart for Wentz. But what we have seen at the team level is exciting to how often they're passing. I mean, we had over 50 routes run for Jahan Dotson last week, more than any player in the NFL. And there is so much opportunity if the defense is going to be this bad,
Starting point is 00:46:17 the offense is going to play this fast and pass as often as they are, which could change if Brian Robinson gets back and they have more of what they wanted to have going into the year, I'm not sure. But yeah yeah with the way things stand right now it's pretty exciting especially for Samuel who's getting the the volume right now Curtis Samuel and McLaurin I just wanted to point out that like this is kind of the role that he was using in college is more of just a field stretcher and not someone who draws targets at a really high rate he actually is a rare player
Starting point is 00:46:44 in that he like started drawing targets at a much high rate. He actually is a rare player in that he started drawing targets at a much higher rate once he got to the NFL level. And now we're seeing him on a more complete team where he can be used as the guy who stretches the field for underneath options. And it's possible that that's kind of the role he's going to settle into, which will make him more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but definitely upside with it still.
Starting point is 00:47:03 I like how Jacob broke that down. Oh, just to add one thing, too. I don't believe in Carson Wentz in real life. I do kind of believe in him in fantasy, and mostly because of Scott Turner, the coordinator running that offense. Yeah, very pass-heavy. Okay, from BBB Go Blue, our last topic. Topic number five, Tom Brady.
Starting point is 00:47:19 I knew this week would be rough for Tom Brady, but what about moving forward? Is he a buy low? I will amend the question. Dan, who's a better buy low, Tom Brady, but what about moving forward? Is he a buy low? I will amend the question. Dan, who's a better buy low, Tom Brady or Russell Wilson? I actually think Russ might be the better buy low here. It sucks because I waited a while to get Tom Brady. I finally got a big share of him in a big league this year,
Starting point is 00:47:36 and I almost now want to trade him away. I'm mostly concerned for me about this Donovan Smith injury. If they don't have Donovan Smith out there on an island and they have to completely adjust their protection like they did this week against the saints, it's going to get really ugly and it's going to continue to be really ugly there,
Starting point is 00:47:51 especially when he loses all the continuity that he's had at the wide receiver position. If this Godwin injury lingers, if this Julio injury lingers, I think they'll, they'll get it going just like the Broncos. Eventually the schedule does get easier too at some point. But if, if these injuries continue to rack up on the offensive line,
Starting point is 00:48:07 specifically if Donovan Smith can't play for an extended period, that's when I start to panic here. To me, it's more about the receivers. To say that he was going to have a good game in New Orleans where he never has a good game without Chris Godwin, without Julio Jones, and then Mike Evans gets thrown out, there's no chance. I think when his receivers are back, he's going to be fine.
Starting point is 00:48:28 I'd rather buy low, I think, I think on Brady because I still think he's a high-end elite quarterback. And while I don't think Russell Wilson is terrible or washed up, I did watch all of his throws from last week. And I do think, you know, just, I'm not sure. I'm not sure that he's the same player he used to be i have some doubts and look brady layered one of the best throws of the day this week the touchdown he threw was was unbelievable it's one of the best single throws many quarter he still has the arm talent he still has everything that he showed
Starting point is 00:48:57 last year but i wonder jacob you can you know shine some more light on this but i feel like the changeover from having aans there last year as a coach to now turning the offense fully over to Byron left, which I feel like they've gone more run heavy. Maybe that is. Oh yeah. I've got all the stats, but I'll let Jacob go for it.
Starting point is 00:49:13 And that scares me because they were just one of the, one of the key values of having Brady in that entire offense was that they were just insane at taking vertical shots downfield. They did it early. They did it often. They didn't care what time of the game it was. They were taking shots. And so that might scare me more than anything. Yeah. So the 31st, um, and drop back rate on first downs, 32%. Um, the only team that's lower is San Francisco at 29%. The league average is 52%. They're at 32. Um, that's not good.
Starting point is 00:49:42 And then in neutral situations, they're below the league average as well. I want to say 54%, 55%. The league average is 63% of the time they drop back for a pass. Tampa Bay is much lower than that. In the past, we've seen them be on the other end of the spectrum where they're very high. It's only two games. So what I would say is that there's significantly more upside with Tom Brady. If this turns around, if we see them get back to what we've seen in the past,
Starting point is 00:50:03 if the offensive line, you know, kind of comes together and these receivers aren't hurt. Um, Chris Godwin looked pretty good when he was out there in week one and looked really good at the end of last year. Mike Evans has looked good. Julio Jones has looked much better than we expected. The other difference between these two is if these guys go down,
Starting point is 00:50:19 there's still really pretty good pieces in Tampa Bay. Whereas like Russ is throwing to no one when Jerry Judy's off the field and catching him is off the sudden baby. And no one else. Yeah. No one else. Yeah. Right.
Starting point is 00:50:32 They, they do have running backs. You would have been so proud of me, Jacob, man. I went through all the first down data right now. Tom Brady is 24th in the NFL and first down pass attempts last year. He was second right now. Leonard Fournette is tied for Saquon Barkley
Starting point is 00:50:47 for the second most first down carries behind Joe Mixon, and he's second overall in carries, just in overall carries. Last year, Fournette averaged 12.9 carries per game. This year, 22.5 carries per game. And he leads the NFL with 22 carries in the first half. So it's not just they're killing the clock at the end or anything like that. I mean, they are running the ball.
Starting point is 00:51:09 And I don't think Fournette can hold up like this, 22 carries per game. So what happens if he misses sometime? There will be more throws for Tom Brady, but I do think the offensive philosophy is a little bit, the team philosophy is going to be different without Arians. And I think that caps Brady's upside a little bit, if not a lot. However, I still think this is really important.
Starting point is 00:51:29 If you're the Dak Prescott manager, you're the Trey Lance manager, if you're really struggling at quarterback right now, I think Brady and Wilson personally are very good by-lows. I think we all said Brady over Wilson. No, I actually said Russell over Brady. Oh, that's right. You said Russ. I'm sorry. All right. So you could consider it.
Starting point is 00:51:48 But you could wait probably another week for Tom Brady because he's not going to have Evans. Right. I don't think he's going to have Godwin. I don't know if he's going to have Julio. Yeah, probably not. He probably doesn't do so well against Green Bay this week. Might not have Donovan Smith either.
Starting point is 00:52:00 Might not have Donovan Smith. Fun show. All right. Beyond the box score. i can't believe i found out just now that you're a data instead of a data guy me no that was that was the azer who said what's his name in goonies i think it's data it's also such a good opportunity for you to come up with you know you have the azer stats the azer data sounds great azer data that's actually that's that that's not a bad but that's not my thing, really. That's your thing.
Starting point is 00:52:25 That's your Jake. I don't know. You got first down stats now. Yeah. You're ripping off first down stats now. Who knows? It's a whole new world. Sub-zero.
Starting point is 00:52:32 Okay, so who's your favorite Mortal Kombat character? That's our YouTube poll. Sub-zero, 44%. Scorpion, 37%. Johnny Cage and Liu Kang. The hardest part of this poll is picking the four characters. You did a very good job. Yeah, I think that's the, who would be like next best?
Starting point is 00:52:50 That doesn't, oh, I kind of liked Raiden. Yeah. Yeah, he was really cool. He was cool. It's Cage for me just because he had that line about the sunglasses that I love as a kid. What was the line? I can't say it because it involves a curse. Oh.
Starting point is 00:53:03 Yeah, we can't talk about Mortal Kombat on this show. A much better movie than Double Dragon, I will say that. Double Dragon, worst movie ever made, and we will end the show. It is the worst movie ever made. We will end the show on that note. Thanks for watching, everybody. For Jacob and Dan, this is Adam. We have gone
Starting point is 00:53:20 beyond the box score. Tagline coming next week.

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