Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Jameis, Otton, Waddle, Stroud and More! (10/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 28, 2024

Recapping Cowboys-49ers (4:35) and debating CeeDee Lamb vs. Deebo Samuel rest of season. It might be closer than you think! Also, we tell you what's missing from Dak Prescott's game ... News and notes (17:05) and advanced metrics (20:30) on Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jayden Reed, Ladd McConkey, Caleb Williams and more ... Four Big Topics: The Browns offense with Jameis Winston (42:55); It might be time to sell high on Cade Otton (52:50); Jaylen Waddle's outlook (56:55); What's Wrong with C.J. Stroud (1:01:30)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. It is time for Beyond the Box Score. Advanced stats. I forgot the tagline. Advanced stats from simple people. I am Adam Azer with two guys who are wearing blue hoodies

and recently got haircuts. This is very weird, but it's Jacob and Dan here. What's going on? I got to tell you something. I shellacked Dan in a fantasy league this week. Just crushed him. Wasn't his fault. Wasn't his fault. I ran into a juggernaut.

But Jacob just whipped me even worse in the magazine league. And we were going to execute a trade in that league, and I was like, no. And I should have said yes. And we're going to talk about one of the guys involved, Jalen Waddell. But Jacob, how are we doing, man? What's going on? Doing great. Always good to be at a Mazer.

The price has gone up, by the way, if you do want to still talk about that trade. He was going to give me Trey McBride for my Jalen Waddell. Oh, he was going to give me Trey McBride and Zach Charbonnet for my Jalen Waddell. I said no. I needed it. My receivers are banged up.

Yeah, well, I don't know that he's going to help you very much, but hopefully we can be helpful here. We are live streaming on Twitter today. I'm going to go ahead and give that a retweet. This is our first time, so hello, Twitter, and hello to all of you watching and listening. Okay, so today on the

show, we'll talk about the 49ers and the Cowboys, and we'll go through the news and notes. Thankfully, not too bad on the news and notes we'll do the advanced metrics and our four big topics today are Jameis Winston, Kate Otten, the Dolphins passing game and CJ Stroud and Dan what's up? What's up? the show a stat i brought up a prediction i brought up about three years ago on the show i think two years ago on the show that i got destroyed for by you and jamie and has been proven true since so we know it hasn't yes it has no it hasn't oh my okay we're gonna get right we'll go over it later we'll go over it later another thing this weekend a few people more than a few like 10 people sent me the shopping cart, a shop, something to do with the shopping cart theory this weekend.

Proving once again that I was right on the shopping cart theory. You can be determined as a good or bad person if you are willing to return that shopping cart or not. And yes, I may not be the hero that was chosen, but I am the hero that is here to arrive for those workers in the grocery stores who want those carts. And I had a scenario this weekend where I went grocery shopping, parked really far away. I was like, you know what?

It feels good. It was at Walmart. And people just leave so many carts all around that Walmart parking lot. So it felt good to return it. And I was even debating going back and returning a few more for other people. I'm not going to lie. I had a similar experience where I parked pretty far away. And I really was close to not bringing it back. You had me in your head. I thought about you and

I brought it back. Okay. San Francisco 30, Dallas 24. And through the first three quarters, I think Dak Prescott had right around zero fantasy points because he had the two interceptions, and he scored 17 fantasy points in the fourth quarter, and he ended up with 17 points. He scored about 17 fantasy points. He ended up with 17.6 fantasy points. Dak Prescott has thrown two interceptions in three straight games for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy, who I benched for Caleb Williams, scored 28 fantasy points thanks to a nice rushing performance. Jacob, give me your takeaways from San Francisco 30, Dallas 24. Yeah, so I just continue to be impressed by Purdy.

I know it wasn't the best game passing, but given the circumstances of where they're at, figuring out their wide receiver room, I think you can excuse that. Good to see Debo out there. He ran around on 73% of the drop back. So pretty much his normal role. He came off here and there to get a breather, but seven targets.

And I know it was a huge game for Kittle on, on the tight end day. And I think that's cool and everything, but I think going forward to me, Debo is the guy that i'm the most excited about his splits when iuk are off the field are absolutely crazy um of the two like his per route data increases dramatically without iuk whereas kittles has always been more contingent on debo and i think that makes sense given the way that debo you know his routes where his targets come

compared to iuk um they're more in the same vicinity as Kittle. So I don't know. Obviously, Kittle, I think, does get a boost. But to me, it's like I just did rest of season rankings last week and I had Debo at wide receiver six. And that was the one I got the most pushback out of the top 12. And I'm curious what you guys think on that. We didn't really see it this week.

And I'm curious if maybe he honestly is maybe one of the best buys in fantasy at this point. Well, I think part of it is going to be if he's healthy moving forward, obviously, and we'll see what happens there. He's been a little bit unlucky with injuries, especially in these situations where he's had Ayuk off the field. Ultimately, I think, and we'll see if we get it the week after this one, with McCaffrey back in the game, it's going to kind of alter the entire way

the 49ers run that offense, and I've been saying this all year. And I think that will be a good thing for Debo, actually. It'll create more space for him. So I'm okay with this. I like this. I like the aggressiveness on Debo rest of season. This is still an offense that proved to me this week they can move the football without their options,

without most of their top weapons, which is something that a lot of offenses cannot do. And a lot of people who think that Purdy is a system quarterback said that he couldn't do that without those weapons. So I believe in the offense and I believe in the space that will be created via McCaffrey's return. Debo had a 66 yard touchdown call back on a holding penalty as well. Feels a little rich to me. Wide receiver six. I would just take a look at the wide receivers I'd rather have ahead of Debo Samuel. I'd rather have in no particular order. Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb for sure.

I would still take Amon Ross St. Brown ahead of him. Yep. I guess it gets a... I had him ahead of St. Brown. His perot data with Ayuk off the field is better than anybody's. It's like above Tyree Kill's even. This year or season? Or career? Career.

Interesting. Yeah. Boy. I like to take Nico. I'd take Nico Collins ahead of him. Yeah. Healthy Nico, yeah. If he gets back. Tyree Kill. that's six.

Okay, so there we go. He's at least worth seven. I don't know. It's tough. I don't know about the ADOT. They're not using him the same way. He's got a 10-yard ADOT, which is pretty high, and he's still averaging high for him.

Still averaging 8.5 yards after the catch per reception, which is insane. I see your point i'll tell you what whatever he ends up being he's going to be in like he's going to be starting almost 100 of these next time out so yeah i don't think you have to pay that for him i just think like that's the upside like i just want to point that out like he really does have dramatic splits without you got the field. So you could go trade for him, maybe. Fair enough. On the Cowboys side of the ball, does one great quarter really for CeeDee Lamb and for Dak Prescott, and Prescott doesn't even have a good game.

CeeDee Lamb has almost 40 fantasy points in PPR. Does one great quarter erase? I mean, imagine if we did this podcast after three quarters, what we'd be saying about CeeDee Lamb right now. Dan, how worried are you about CD lamb? If at all, I'm worried about him as the player we draft them to be and what he was last year. I just think this Cowboys offense is in a completely different spot than it was last year.

First of all, and most importantly, the run game has consist as legitimately collapsed in and on itself. And I don't think this has to do with the running backs. A lot of people have discussed that losing Pollard. I think mostly, mostly it has to do with the offensive line really regressing as a run blocking unit. And just generally speaking,

the system with Kellen Moore, I'm sorry, not with Kellen Moore. I was thinking back to the Eagles for a second, this system with Mike McCarthy, not being able to generate much in the run game throughout the 10 year there. So I think that impacts the whole offense.

And ultimately speaking, I think we could see more games where they don't have the garbage time points like they did in this one, which has been the savior for this team. So I think he's fine as a wide receiver moving forward. He's going to get his targets, but I don't foresee him returning to last year's numbers. Okay.

Would you take Debo Samuel or CD lamb rest of season? I think Jacob made a strong enough case. And I believe enough in the 49ers offense that I could take Debo. I would want to look at the schedules for both players coming up, but I think I can be open to taking Debo over him. I would take lamb. Yeah, I would take lamb too. Uh, I think with lamb, it just, he's CD lamb and he's going to get a ton of targets, and you just hope for better production. For Dak, got to stop throwing interceptions, just making bad decisions. I've been trying to make a buy-low case on Dak Prescott, but he is just not running. He is averaging less than five rushing yards per game. And here comes the take. And it's so ridiculous. What you're about to say is laughably ridiculous. 3.4 rushing yards per game for Dak Prescott.

The previous two seasons, he's been 15.2 and 14.2 rushing yards per game for Dak Prescott. The previous two seasons, he's been 15.2 and 14.2 rushing yards per game. You're going to go talk about... You know what? Go ahead. This is unbelievable. This is the worst Schneier take in the history of bad Schneier takes. Go ahead, Dan Schneier.

I'm not even going to say it now. You've shamed me into not even wanting to say it at this point, though I don't know how it could be a bad take. Years ago, I was on this podcast, and I said, once he returns from this injury, the Cowboys are not going to run him on zone read in the red zone, which takes away some of his fantasy value,

and he's not going to run as much. And both those things have been proven true since he had that injury. We're talking about the previous two years, 15 and 14 yards per game. He's at 3.4. You're going to take a victory lap on something that wasn't true for two straight years, and now it's true? How many rushing touchdowns did he have before the injury? How many rushing touchdowns did he have after the injury? Okay, you might have been technically right about that. But this is much

different. This is a guy, like, I sent you guys a stat, right? This is the 17-game pace for Brock Purdy versus Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott is on pace for 4,481 yards passing Purdy 4,465 yards. They're almost identical in terms of passing yards. Dak Prescott is on pace for three more passing touchdowns, but four more interceptions. Dak Prescott is on pace for 58 rushing yards. Brock Purdy for 446 rushing yards, right? That's the point.

I know, but what I'm saying is, you didn't, this wasn't happening. He was a 250 rushing yard guy the previous two seasons. This is 58 rushing yards, 17 games. The main point I made was just, they wouldn't use him on zone read in the red zone, and he wouldn't get those rushing touchdowns. This is very specific. It has carried over to him just not running at all.

This year, yeah, but not the last two years. So if I make a prediction now and it comes true in three years, do I get to... No, but my prediction was the rushing touchdowns and not being used on zone read. It has nothing to do with rushing yards. I'm adding that on top because it's taking away even more of his value.

Well, whoever's right or wrong... Do you write your predictions down or are they truly all backlogged and stored? Like, I remember what I predicted four years ago and it's coming, baby. This one I remember. This one I remember just because like Adam and I think it was Jamie just laughed at me when I was like, Oh,

he has five stars and touchdowns a year. They're going off on me. So, all right, we'll see when he comes back. If they're that contract, if they're going to want to rush him in the red zone anymore at that injury, Dan has the,

uh, Steve Buscemi people to kill list. All right. Well, but that is seriously, though, for Dak Prescott. I know it's only like one fantasy point per game, plus maybe a touchdown here or there rushing. But if he's going to be like

a glorified version of Matthew Stafford, you know, rushing the ball, that is bad. This guy needs to use his legs a little bit more. Okay. Hopefully he didn't start Rico Dowdle. Dowdle was started in like 30% of leagues, and he was out with an illness.

Jake Ferguson, I know it hasn't been great, but he does have, I want to say, seven or more targets in three of his last four healthy games. Yeah, four of his five healthy games, but needs more red zone targets. Three red zone targets, one end zone target this year for Jake Ferguson, who's yet to catch a touchdown. Last year, he had nine end zone targets.

This year, he has one. And that is it for that game. Tell us, Dan, about Beyond the Box score. And Jacob, if you like, what's coming up this week? Where and when can we find it? Yeah, so Beyond the Box score, it's what you're listening to now. But there's a second Beyond the Box score that debuts on Fantasy Football Express, typically on Thursdays. Last week was Wednesday. I would say go back and listen to that show. It was my favorite one we did yet. be on the box score that debuts on fantasy football express typically on thursdays last

week was wednesday i would say go back and listen that show is my favorite one we did yet we had nate tyson breaking down film of the rookie quarterbacks among other players best play callers best schemes worst schemes breakouts for the second half some really interesting calls in there that you can find uh some that may play out rest of season but either way it's a fun conversation that jacob and i love doing it's our way of kind of getting to anything we miss on this show, essentially. And moving forward, it'll be on Thursdays. It was on the fantasy football express today, podcast, the feed this past week. We'll see if we can continue that moving forward, but it is always on YouTube. And starting this week, we're getting the FFT guys on. So Adam will have a show, Dave, Jamie,

Heath, everybody will be on moving forward. And To be clear, Adam is too busy for us. Oh, I didn't know that Adam turned us down. I try. Wow. No, I think I think one of the give me one of the weeks where six teams are on a buy. I was going on here. I didn't even know that Adam turned us down. I must have read through the show plans a little bit fast.

So I guess everyone in that busy adam will be joining us to help promote the show and help us get off the ground but you know it's okay adam you don't need to help we don't need your help it's okay go to youtube.com slash fantasy football today and i usually i tell you to hit the live tab but i don't think that you're going to see them there just hit the videos tab and you'll see beyond the box score good jacob sorry to cut you off you could been gretches coming on on adam's week and this week we've got a spooky show with Dave Richard, uh, on Halloween on Thursday. I'm really excited. Nice. Yeah. So by the way, um, I'm bringing on, uh, Matthew Berry, Mike Wright, and all your other guests to respond to you saying that last week's episode with Nate Tice was your favorite one so far.

And I like all those other people too, but when it comes to breaking down tape, nobody really gets to the Nate Tice level. Ben has a comment in the chat. Adam's take on November 5th, 2022 was ridiculous. Yeah, I'm sure I will be talking about it next November. All right, we're going to take a break here on Fantasy Football today. News and notes and the rest of the show after this. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate?

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2023 dirt report here are your news and notes jordan love has a groin injury drake mays in the concussion protocol and the panthers did not commit to a starting quarterback for week nine just yet they face the saints uh kendry miller yeah honestly thank goodness not a bad injury kendry miller has i think a groin injury injury, Christian Kirk out for the season with a shoulder injury. And of course, Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas jr. Left with an injury. Uh, Jacob, let's say Brian Thomas jr. Is back next week or just, you know, whenever he's back. Do you think the absence of Christian Kirk has a big impact on him? Yeah. Um, I think, you know, you replace him, replace Kirk with Parker Washington, who is a player who I like. Um, I think he's a competent player, but he's also not someone who's ever drawn targets at a high rate. And that's, there's a clear difference there. I think the player who's impacted the most is going to be Evan Ingram. Um, just because they have more similarity in the area where they draw the targets. But we've seen

Brian Thomas become more and more involved as the first read in the offense, and I think that'll only continue with Kirk out. Okay, and Debo Samuel left with injured ribs. They have a bye, so I think hopefully we're okay there. And Stefan Diggs, still I'm surprised we haven't heard anything on Stefan Diggs. He had a non-contact knee injury. Oh, baby.

37 routes run for Brian Thomas without Christian Kirk christian kirk on the field he's got 13 targets on those routes which is a 35 target per hour and right that's a small sample size but it's basically one game i pretty much just for context 35 percent that would be among the league leaders yeah that would be insane for a player as big and fast as him and as efficient with his targets yeah i'm pretty sure i'm pretty sure I prefer him to Malik Nabors rest of season. Wow! Really? Get back to me tomorrow.

Because of Josh Azudu? Yeah, because of everything. It's crazy how much one left tackle can change a whole offense. But you're right, it's not every offense. But it is this one. When you go from that that like a near all pro level to near like shouldn't even be starting the league it does make a massive difference yeah

and i i'm just gonna say right now and we'll see if this bears out over the next few weeks i've got my alert on right now for this vikings offense moving forward without christian darus so we'll see what happens but i've got high alert and they collapse really fast there for that Minnesota offense. Yeah. He's out for the season. And I say it again, every time I talk about horrible in the second half, every time I talk about Sam Darnold, it's the same thing. He's incredible with the pocket clean. He is terrible under pressure. So it's, it's a good call there. I mean, well, it's a good point to bring up for sure. And then, you know,

there are a lot of other. Okay, the Bears. The Bears lost three offensive linemen injury. I don't know the severity, but three offensive linemen. A lot of times they come back the next week. Texans lost a offensive lineman to a concussion. The Bengals left tackle or I don't know if he's left or right tackle. Orlando Brown, knee injury. And Jacksonville, Ezra Cleveland left guard.

He left with an injury. And defensively, yeah, there are a lot of defensive injuries. I don't know if any of them are long-term or not, so we'll skip that. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code FANTASY, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So you download the BetMGM app and you sign up and the bonus code is fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.

Receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. All right, it's time for some advanced stats and snap shares and things of that nature. And Jacob Gibbs, the floor is yours. So I'm running a little bit behind, unfortunately,

because there are a lot of notes this week that are interesting. Like I just found that Mark Andrews had a higher route rate this week than he has had in any of the other weeks. So after the last game, I tweeted out that Andrews had not seen any significant role change

and was basically just a touchdown dependent guy. True Media has his route participation at 78%. And for reference, their past few route rates they've given Andrews are 56%, 60%, 47%, 48%, 35%. 78% would be the highest rate of the season and basically in line with what we've seen in the past. So that is interesting um i'm going to wait and see what uh fantasy points data has to say about route participation because they uh i think have more accurate route tracking data um and that comes out later today so yeah check check up my twitter as the the uh the week goes on because that could be a significant change for Andrews.

The other Baltimore note was 195 air yards for Zay Flowers, which is by far the highest of his career. Flowers only has four other games above 100 air yards. He has really looked like a true breakout this year. And that has been awesome to see that really surprises me um because i we hadn't seen much of him winning down the field um but also i they hadn't really used him that way all that much but they have been this year so that's really cool lad mcconkey um i'm so so excited about this guy i've tried to bring him up anytime that i get the opportunity but really there haven't been a ton of opportunities because the charges just don't throw the ball very much but if you just watch him like he is insane the way that he moves it feels so impossible for a defender to try to cover him because the start stop ability is just so smooth um and yeah it's hard to have a better

day than he did in week eight six targets six catches 111 yards two touchdowns one went down the one yard line he's nuts he is really really good so you're talking about mcconkie can i give you a mcconkie stat i want i need to get your perspective on it he had a 78.9 percent route participation rate because he doesn't play that many snaps right but you know they run the ball so much so it doesn't really it doesn't really matter if he's on the field when they run the ball so much so it doesn't really it doesn't really matter if he's on the field when they run the ball right so is a 79 percent route partition route participation rate good enough to be a this was just week eight i didn't look at other weeks good enough to be a

reliable fantasy option there have been some weeks where he has gotten in and in the wide receiver like two receiver sets and that route rate has been higher so i think there's like that that's encouraging to me because we haven't seen that even from josh downs and jayden reed in their second season and we have seen that at times for mcconkey um and even if he doesn't get that if he stays below 80 that's still the range that those guys i just listed are in um and so like if you are fine rolling with jayden reed who's going to be up and down week to week then that's basically where you're at with mcconkey except the offense doesn't throw as much but i think he is good enough and i think he's when he's out there and they are passing he's so

clearly the most likely to be targeted he's so clearly the winner of the wide receiver group there um who's going to be creating consistent separation well i, I got a, I got a Jaden Reed stat for you that you're not going to like. So Jaden Reed had, uh, he played 59% of the snaps. So that's his fourth game playing fewer than 60% of the snaps. Three of those four games are Malik Willis games. And the other one was like a 30 point blowout or something like that it was 34 13 so not quite 30 points but i wonder if they're just using different personnel with malik willis and he and reed is not getting on the field i don't know that really matters i don't want to start any of those wide receivers if jordan love is out yeah it's another case against jayden reed if malik willis is on the field and i'll say this about something jacob mentioned that the charge is not throwing the

ball a lot they're not throwing the ball a lot but we are starting to get to levels of kind of like early roman harbaugh with the niners with kaepernick when they were at their peak where they're not throwing a lot but they're generating a ton of yards on the throws they made i think they're averaging almost 300 yards per game over the last two games justin herbert such a phenomenal talent such phenomenal thrower of the football um and like Jacob said with McConkie, there ain't nothing wrong with the way that he moves. Yeah. Love that. All right.

We'll keep rolling here. Cedric Tillman brought up Tillman on last week. Jacob kept talking about the way he moves, and it just got in my head. Tillman brought him up on last week's Beyond the Box score, and we see him really contribute in the box score this week in a big way. He was in for a route on 40 of 43 dropbacks. Only Judy had more. Nine targets for Tillman.

Only Elijah Moore had more. 12 targets for Moore, which surprised me. 159 air yards for Tillman. So super, super exciting there. Former round three pick. I think it made some sense that it took a bit of time for him to acclimate to the NFL, but he looks really good out there. And seems like a perfect fit with Winston, right? I have a lot of thoughts on this.

Do we wait for the Winston? Yeah, we'll wait for topic number one, but everyone was good. Yeah, the Ravens were not, though. We can talk about this now, though, because this is a quick thing. Cedric Tillman was a player who I feel like a lot of fantasy football managers just kind of forgot about based on how his rookie season went. He went one pick in, in the draft NFL draft 74th overall after Jalen Hyatt at 73rd, who had a little bit of hype, despite honestly having wide receiver one alpha X tape this year before he entered the draft. Then he played his final season at Tennessee through an injury. Didn't have as

good tape, but again, if you go back to the year before his tape was has the size, has the frame moves like a wide receiver. One makes plays above the rim, uh, at the catch point and has all awesome body control in on this film against the Ravens. I saw him separate vertically twice. Really? Well, the game winning touchdown, he tempoed his route phenomenally well to break out for the touchdown.

And then he had a deep target down the field that James kind of just said effort and threw into a safety who was playing in the middle of the field, but he just threw it anyway. But if you watch the route from Tillman, he separated from the DB by like three or four yards. So he has buildup speed. He's much faster on tape than he was maybe in his 40 time. I think he's really, really good talent. He's somebody who I think you should be rushing to waiver wires to, to grab this week. If he wasn't picked up last week, he was not Cedric Tillman's roster percentage is sorry. Why don't I? Oh, 21%. So, all right, Jacob, keep on going. Yeah. I got Tillman in like dynasty leagues for pretty cheap for like cheaper than Sterling Shepard was going in some places. And it's like like what the heck are we doing here like this is this is a real prospect

um trey mcbride in arizona we saw both him and marvin harrison have a good day together which is awesome and i just want to point out that it's been kind of a frustrating year for mcbride for fantasy he doesn't have a touchdown yet it feels like his production just hasn't matched the underlying data the underlying data is really, really strong. Last year, I kept bringing him up because his per route production was better than any tight ends. It was better than young Travis Kelsey and stuff like that. Like on pace with young Travis Kelsey. This year's per route data is better.

Drawing targets at a higher rate, producing yards at a higher rate than even last year. And that's just like really, really exciting. He looks like a legit stud. like he's i i love watching bride play man when he gets the ball in his hands like he's just rumble tumble like he's he's awesome out there um back to the browns i forgot to bring up nick chubb 62 snap rate 76 running back rush there actually led the browns and routes run among the running backs which surprised me this is basically like what i envisioned as like his max role this year coming back from the injury and it's just kind of wild that we're already seeing that in the second game yeah uh the matchups haven't been good but like that as long as he can as long as he's fine health-wise like this is really encouraging to see this type of

usage already yeah especially if they're going to be able to move the ball i can't wait to talk about the browns soon yeah uh trading offense moving forward for fantasy but yeah another running back come back from injury jonathan taylor 82 snap rate 63 route rate uh goodson goodson barely played i'm seeing him with a three percent snap rate um so that that's exciting i know i know goodson was in there to have that dropped touchdown it was a really irritating week for anthony richardson people um but yeah taylor played a ton so that's good um somebody who did not play a ton that it was a bit disappointing was troy franklin for the broncos um he had a really good week i thought he looked awesome

last week he had a 39 route rate this week i'm guessing that was just because of the game script he dropped the target a deep target he should have never dropped to i think that you think he got benched or something? Yeah. He had the same route rate as Vele. He was well behind little Jordan Humphrey. I feel like Peyton doesn't love, he wants to have these field stretchers, but he never plays Marvin Mims. He never plays Troy Franklin.

To me, he looks like a real potential outside receiver, which is a little bit different than Mims. Yeah, I don't know. Just given the usage last week, I thought there was potential because we never really got to see mems do that true uh another random guy here jaylen coker for the for the panthers um 33 of 41 dropbacks he ran a rat on he ended up with four catches for 78 yards and it touched on six targets on the year he has really strong per route efficiency he just hasn't been targeted very much he has a 14 percent target per hour rate that's up to 20 when deontay johnson is off the field i think that he can work with that so if deontay gets traded um you're probably looking at him and league it and maybe

thielen if he comes back i think he could be a real fantasy producer in like deep leagues with that kind of a role this is a guy that's really productive in college but is a holy cross and he didn't get drafted so it's like what do you make of that production maybe nothing but then you see him actually doing it here albeit it's on this garbage team and garbage time but like fantasy all that matters is stats and he might be able to deliver that for you he looks like somebody can get open he's big he's six foot three um he's an interesting player to watch as a rookie jay coker just to say the name again jets jaylen coker for the panthers yeah one percent on probably jackson smith and jigba um kind of disappointing no real change for him with dk metcalf out he had a 60 68 slot rate again his average route depth so that's the

distance from the line of scrimmage that his initial cut his route comes was seven yards downfield so i went and watched the few routes that he did get a run down the field and most of them he's just clearing space only two did he actually get an opportunity to run a route where there might have been a target he got targeted on both of those but he was mostly just clearing space running back was targeted on like four of those 10 routes the offensive line is just a problem i think it was a problem throughout this whole game and it's been a problem all year. Ryan Grubb is somebody who would love to attack down the field, but we've only been able to see him do that a few times this season.

Yeah, but they could be getting healthier in the coming weeks because they activated a couple of players off IR. So this is the Seahawks we're talking about. But I was equally disappointed. I had that note as well that JSN had a 68.4% slot rate. I was hoping that just like last year, last year's highest percentage on the outside was the one game Metcalf missed.

Wow, big surprise. It was arguably his best game last year. It's just annoying to draft a guy in the first round and turn him into a low A dot, low route depth slot guy. I don't really think that's the kind of player he is. I think he is somebody who can win first press coverage and get open down the field but we just really haven't seen him get much of an opportunity to do that yeah two more notes khalil shakir khalil shakir led the team in routes again 10 targets on the year shakir is the wide

receiver six in yards per route run wow i think he goes really overlooked because he had the injury and it's been you know really run heavy and stuff like that. They trade for Amari Cooper. He probably got dropped in some leagues. And I think people have just kind of given up on this guy, forgotten about him. Um, I think the Cooper thing only helps him. Um, and the emergence of Keon Coleman probably helps him too. Uh, neither of those guys are necessarily going to be huge target earners. Uh, Cooper is, you know, not graded out well in the separation scores and stuff like that shakir does i think he's the one who can consistently keep his offense on track by winning over the middle and getting yak um i think that's going to be really important for the bills passing game and it seems like the bills are maybe going to lean

into the passing game a little bit more um and yeah his target per route run rate is up to 24 that's a huge huge change from what we've seen in the past with Shakir. Last year, it was at 14%. So I think he's a legit fantasy player that you need to have in your roster and probably be starting. Can you look something up at some point? He's caught 36 of 38 targets. That's what he does.

There's got to be a stat out there of minimum 35 targets. This is the highest catch rate ever, right? He has the most consecutive catches of all time. He set that record earlier this year, from last year to this year. I think, I don't remember how many it was in a row, but yeah, he had the highest catch rate last year of any player, and it wasn't even close.

This is just what he does. He's insane. Yeah, and by the way, this is one of the two targets that he didn't catch was yesterday, and it was batted down at the line of scrimmage. So I don't know what the other one was, but he catches every single ball that comes his way all right what's your last note jacob we gotta talk about the bucks um we're gonna get to kate otten in a second but i did want to point out that the screen game was still alive and well even without chris godwin

we got a screen for kate otten screen for jaylen mcmillan two screens a piece for bucky and rashad white white scored on his um it was primarily Sterling Shepard in the slot. That's what we saw last week when Godwin went down. Wasn't sure what it would look like after a week of practice, but it was mostly Shepard. Only 33% of McMillan's routes came in the slot, so they were asking him to win on the outside. I thought he did a pretty good job, honestly. Atlanta has been a pretty easy secondary to win against uh this year um but yeah mcwilliam had seven targets 95 air yards it was his second straight game he had a big first down on a jet sweep um i thought he created separation all right he had a couple big um downfield targets

that could have been bigger plays and ended up mounting to nothing i wouldn't be super discouraged about the result here i think he's somebody you hold, potentially even buy. If you're in Dynasty, he might be a good buy. We talk a lot about how some offensive schemes and play colors can really carry the tide of an offense all the way to the top and are good to lean on when you're trying to buy in fantasy football in the trade market. Liam Cohen is one of those guys we needed to start discussing in that regard.

I mean, what he's done with this Bucs offense is phenomenal, especially through all the injuries. Watching that, I got a chance to watch that tape and they looked really good on offense despite losing Evans and Godwin just one week earlier. So I have belief in that offense. They did. And yeah, I meant to talk about that when we get into Kate Otten, but just to get your quick thought, they did look pretty good, but there was really nothing like over the top, no explosive plays really. So when you throw 50 passes, I mean, they're dinking and dunking for the most part,

digging and dunking their way down the field. Like I said, I sat, I sat Baker Mayfield in every league I had him in, which I think is four. And, uh, you know,

I was wrong. I regret it, but I don't know that this gives me any more confidence in him going forward. No, it does give me more confidence in him going forward, but it doesn't make it any easier. It's still, he's not, with Godwin and Evans,

I wasn't even considering sitting him. This didn't make him a must start again, in my opinion, but it does make him a more confident start if I do have to go to, what's his name? Baker Mayfield. I sat him for Caleb Williams in a league. That's why I called him Caleb Williams. I don't hate that, given the matchup,

though Washington defense is all of a sudden good now. Yeah. A couple notes from me that you haven't heard are three things. DeAndre Hopkins only played 32% of the snaps, so don't panic there. Amari Cooper played only 50% of the snaps, but in the first three quarters, he basically ran the same amount of routes as Shakir and Coleman. They ran 25.

Cooper ran 22. So I think he really sat more than anyone probably in the fourth quarter. I didn't look, but that just makes sense. And then Caleb Williams. Ooh, terrible game. Three of 12. Remember, we kept talking about Caleb Williams,

air yards, 10 or more air yards. Well, the previous two games, he was eight of 15, 190 yards, three touchdowns, 20% off target rate. Yeah, he regressed in this game for sure. 3 of 12, 66 yards, and a 50% off target rate. That was on past attempts of 10 or more air yards. So just a bad game.

Bad game for Caleb Williams. He did have a few nice audibles out of bad calls. I mean, doing some things that are not showing up in the box score, not going to help us in fantasy. But just one I want to kind of buy into Caleb Williams as a fantasy option in that whole offense, I'm kind of just held back when I watch them play. I just, yes, he had a bad game, had some off target throws, but man, that shade Waldron offenses, it's just unacceptable to me from what I watch at the NFL level and stats back it up. I think that that marriage is going to have to break up at some point for Caleb to reach his potential.

Jaden Daniels or Caleb Williams and dynasty. It's still Caleb for me personally. I'll go Jen. So, so just to be clear, I will tell you if I want to make this clear, the only reason it's Caleb for me from a fantasy standpoint in dynasty is because the main question I had with Jaden Daniels, which is, can he hold

up at the NFL level when, you know, no sub 200 quarterback has held up at the NFL level besides Jeff Garcia. Uh, and I get no upsides cousins for three seasons, one season at Jeff Garcia, uh, that has not been answered yet. And that will not really be answered. So it's just impossible to answer that. I just don't foresee it being an easy ride for him to stay healthy every year. Whose cousins? I've heard you say that twice now. I don't know. He was sub 200 for three of the seasons.

Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you know where I read that? From Nate Tice. Nate Tice, yeah. Okay, we're going to take a break here. I have a Lamar Jackson question from you. I have a comment in the chat about Dan that I want to read.

Oh, no. No, it's a good one. And we'll be right back after this on FFT. Here's a Lamar Jackson question from you. I have a comment in the chat about Dan that I want to read. No, it's a good one. And we'll be right back after this on FFT. Here's a Lamar Jackson question for you. He scored 28.2 fantasy points against Cleveland in six point per passing touchdown leagues. If you were facing Lamar Jackson, and I told you

I will give you, he's going to score 28.2 fantasy points, or you can take what's in the box and let the game play out. Would you take, you're playing against him. Would you take the 28.2 or would, or you can take what's in the box and let the game play out. Would you take, you're playing against him. Would you take the 28.2 or would you let it play out? Yeah, I think I might take 28. I heard you say that yesterday. You're like, I'm glad when I play Lamar and he only scores 28.

That's kind of where we're at. That's how I feel. In passing, I might take the 28. I would take it. He didn't play well yesterday. I know. I mean, the drop by Bateman, you had him missing Isaiah, likely wide open. You had him missing somebody else. Is he flowers wide open on a deep

ball? Divisional games are always a little trickier for Lamar. They've seen him so much. All right. Here's my other question. Do you think I have a problem? Before we started the show, which was at noon, I would say right at noon uh i had already had two or three pieces of halloween candy this is like your mo though once it comes to

halloween time you buy the candy for the kids and for the house you just go nuts on it which yeah i don't think is a problem and i'll tell you why your self-discipline as i know this uh from having played the tennis match with you this past season, this past summer when we raised money for St. Jude and raised a few thousand dollars just in that match alone. So it was pretty exciting. Donate next year. Help us support our cause draft-a-thon St. Jude. But when we went out for dinner after, you had just burned off thousands of calories with two set tennis. And you're like, I want to order the sandwich you're ordering.

It looks really good, but I don't think I have the guts for it. So you ordered like a salad or you ordered like a teriyaki bowl. That was like broccoli, chicken, grilled chicken, and brown rice or something like that. No, it was white rice. Yeah, chicken teriyaki, white rice, and broccoli. So good. Don't get me started on brown rice versus white rice. I think brown rice is horrible for you.

And you should do some research on that. Yeah, it's true. It's true. But with that said, you didn't have the guts to eat the Fat Man meal like I ate, which was some ridiculous chicken cutlet, vodka, Parmesan, and mozzarella. See, here's the thing, though. When you have little kids, you eat their leftover chicken nuggets and their french fries and I think it's going to be fine, dude, because you eat healthy otherwise.

So you can pound candy and go nuts on all that stuff. Not really. I got to do better. And here's the comment I wanted to read from Jaquan, because I feel like I've been a little mean to Dan. I just honestly thought his Dak Prescott thing about him being right about something he said. I just thought it was really ridiculous. But you know what? I'm sorry.

The Russian touchdowns have come down, so it actually was right. But go ahead. Comment from Jaquan. Dan's Smashburger take was absolute fire fire and no one is talking about it. There we go, Jay Kwan. Thank you. It's rare. I get positive feedback on the show.

So it's nice to hear it. Give me a 10 second summary of your smash burger take. I don't even remember which one he's referring to, but I think it's just that's the best way to cook a burger. And what is that exactly? What do we do? Oh, you never made a smash burger? Maybe I have. Smash burgers. You throw the patty on the griddle or i do it on like a cast iron pan get it really hot and then you just smash it down so it's like that

thin crispy so you get it all burger place you smash it after you put it on the pan yeah you get it down on the pan right so then it's a thin it's crispy on both sides. And you have to flip it though. Of course. So why don't you smash it before? What do you mean? Why don't you thin it out? Why don't you thin it out before and make it like a thin, I don't know. That's just the technique I learned. And I'm pretty sure that's the technique is it. And good point by Jake. When you want to put fried onions on it too, that's really the best way to do it by Mr. Popinski. I go to smash burger for my smash burgers. That's also everyone these days is using this smash burger technique. Popinski. I go to Smashburger for my Smashburgers. That's also... Well, everyone these days is using the Smashburger technique. Okay, good stuff. Let's get

to our four big topics. John says his topic he wanted to hear about was Jameis Winston, Jameis Winston, Jameis Winston, and dot, dot, dot, Jameis Winston. So, it was impressive. I think, Dan, you have a lot to say about this, so go for it. Yeah, Jameis Winston tape.

So, here's the deal with this Browns offense. Now, as we move forward, they're actually a real offense. Now they can run a real offense with Jameis Winston, which it must be crazy for these players to have gone through this year where they had to play seven weeks with Deshaun Watson when this was on the bench. But one thing I love so far about watching this offense with Jameis versus Deshaun is the difference in how defenses are going to have to play them and are forced to play them because Jameis will target the intermediate and deep halves of the field. Watching Browns tape before Jameis with Deshaun now after there's so much more space to work with in the middle of field defenses are playing their safeties off the ball and it changes everything

for this offense. They've also done a great job of going back under center. This is what Stefanski's bread and butter was before Deshaun ever came to the team. And most of their big plays in the passing game in this game were from under center shot. I'm sorry, play action passes from under center from Jameis Winston. I thought if you're looking for the negatives, Jameis Winston was a little bit late and a little bit off target when he was running from the shotgun plays from the shotgun and running quick game. The quick game timing still needs work, but the intermediate shots and the deep, deep, deep half field. Yeah. There's some off target throws from Jamis, but man, some of these anticipatory throws that he made to Eli Moore in this game were phenomenal. The ball was out off the play action in the 16 to 20 yard range. Well, before the wide receiver got out of his break, there was a third and four play where Jamis called an alert, which I thought was really

impressive. Found Eli Moore for the first down, just to see that kind of command of the line of scrimmage from a quarterback who hasn't played much with these guys. He had a seam bender to Eli Moore. That was really fun. The third and five play, I think after they were backed up in first and 20, it was my favorite. He came off his pre snap. It was a pre-snap quick game to the left, little slant flat. It wasn't there. Came off and hit a backside dig to, I believe, Cric Tillman. Um, you don't see most starting quarterbacks throw backside digs, or even able to understand where the backside dig is and have the timing down, let alone make the play. Uh, he made that play, did a great job resetting the pocket in this game. I thought as well, um, a little bit late again on times. That's what I

have in my notes, but overall thought he had great rapport with Eli Moore. So I'm excited about two players from this game, not just Cedric Tillman, but Eli Moore, Cedric Tillman, maybe look the best, but Eli Moore and James Winston had really good connection in this game. I'll shout out Adi for this. He said for this week at Eli Moore would be a top 20 player rest of the season. I think that's maybe a little bit bullish at the wide receiver position in PPR, he said, but the fact of the matter is the report while Tillman looked the best on tape, the rapport with Moore and Winston was by far

the best that I saw in this game. And I think we're going to see a lot of 6-7 reception games from Moore moving forward. Make no doubt about it, I'm ready to be heard again. And Elijah Moore? No. I will always get back in on Elijah. I wanted to bring up 2.4 average time to throw 2.4 seconds

for jamis winston only two uh had a lower average time to throw and that was with a 10 yard average depth of target so compare that to john watson with a 3.1 average time to throw which might not sound like a big difference but that's a huge difference 2.4 to 3.1. You're almost asking your line to block for another full second. And his average depth of target was only 7.3 yards. So we're seeing Winston get the ball out much quicker, but also is willing to take shots down the field that Watson just wasn't. The other note is that Winston only had a 2.4% off target rate in this game, which, again, he's throwing down the field. And so that's really

encouraging that he probably only was, you know, charted with one or two off target throws in this game. I, this is another spot where I'm really excited for fantasy points, data suite to be updated. So I can go look at the catchable air yards from this game because i know with watson the browns were sitting at like 120 or 110 catchable air yards per game which only kill williams and the bears had a lower rate um i wouldn't be surprised if it's like well over 200 with jamis this game yeah the last game with watson it was 44 catchable air yards in a whole game it's just like you can't you can't do that you can't ask your player to be out there where this is not a real offense. Yeah.

And you could see it. Like you could watch it on film. When you watch this game on film, you can understand that these receivers are more light, look more lively out there with Jamis at quarterback. Like they trust that they have a shot when they win their routes in the intermediate range to get the football. And Jamis is like the stat you brought up. Jacob is amazing.

Like less time to throw than Watson yet targeting down downfield because you know how you do that you do that with anticipatory throws there were multiple throws on tape that i put on my twitter where he got the ball out before the right receiver got out of his break including an outpout a pattern to eli moreless phenomenal even the deep target to tillman that was broken up by the safety and probably shouldn't have been thrown because there was a middle of the field safety. And James just said, I don't care. I'm James. It's good because Tillman wins his route by like three yards of separation

with a great vertical stem. And you know, a lot of times the receiver doesn't get the ball when they win the route like that, he gets the ball, the targets there. And I think that says a lot, like the receivers know that they have an actual chance to make plays down

the field with an actual target. Well, must be getting a little hot in here because it's time for some cold water. I love that. Okay, here we go. Just a little cold water here. First of all, on the positive side, before we get to the cold water, the Browns offensive line is getting healthier.

They did play without their left tackle, Jedrick Wills. He's hopefully going to be back soon. But compared to the state of the offensive line at the beginning of the year, it is a much different unit and honestly might be a pretty damn good one at the end of the day if they can get everybody healthy. But the Ravens are one of the worst pressure teams in football. They're currently 27th in pressure rate. And at the moment in the week eight with two teams left to play, they're 23rd in pressure rate. So if we get what we expect from the Steelers and the Giants tonight, they'll probably be 25th in pressure rate for the week.

So that was a big factor here. He had very clean pockets, did get the ball out quickly, as you mentioned. He threw three dropped interceptions, including one the play before the game-winning touchdown to Cedric Tillman. And the other glass of cold water I'll pour on it is that the Ravens

are one of the worst pass defenses in football. And they were missing two starting cornerbacks in this game, Humphrey and rookie Nate Wiggins. So I wish he had done this in a tougher matchup, or I wish he had just done something, even maybe not this good in a tougher matchup. We'd have a better way to evaluate these players. Because even if you go back to the fourth quarter of week seven, if you go watch that game, I think it was against the Bengals. The Bengals are just nursing the lead, playing super soft coverage. What you saw last here. And they get the Chargers next week, who I think are overrated defensively and lost Christian Fulton, a starting cornerback for them to an injury in week eight. I don't know if he'll be back, but they're much better, I think, than the Ravens. Then they have a bye. Then, you know, they've got Pittsburgh twice. They've got Denver.

They've got Kansas City. They have a much harder schedule. I skipped over New Orleans. That's a good matchup, but it gets harder for them. So, honestly, I can't sit here and tell you what to make of it. The guy, Jameis Winston looked terrible with the Saints last year in the sporadic moments when he played when Derek Carr would leave with injury. Looked so much better yesterday. But there are some considerations there that I think we need to factor in. Somebody asked, would you rather have a Browns wide receiver or Devante Adams rest of season?

It's gotta be Adams, right? I get the appeal with Tillman, but it's gotta be Adams. Adams open a lot on tape. Apparently I didn't get a chance to see it. Just not a lot of targets. I don't know,

man. When I dig into Adams is like, it seems over. It's tough. I mean, I don't know. I'm not there yet. I haven't seen a lot of him, but I've seen the stats from Jamie this past offseason

who was very low on Adams based on his age and some of the drop-off in efficiency over the last few years. I will say this to counter your point a little bit, Adam. I think it's a great point, especially pointing to the schedule. I don't know if the interceptions matter for us from a fantasy standpoint. James is going to throw interceptions. They don't know if the interceptions matter for us from a fantasy standpoint. Jameis is going to throw interceptions. They don't really hurt us that much.

He didn't throw any interceptions because they dropped three of them. But I'm saying he's going to. That's the Jameis experience. He would not have thrown the Tillman touchdown. Sure, sure, sure. There's going to be possessions, but you get the ball back. I'm not as worried about that.

I think the key factor is, just from watching the tape, and this is what happened with the Saints too, Jameis is just such a better quarterback when he's under center in a game, in a, in a game plan, like the Browns are now going to run because Nick Chubb, we didn't get a chance to talk about this, but looked phenomenal on tape. And now he did not look as explosive as he was pre-injury. I didn't like to, from an athletic, uh, let's some standpoint. I didn't think Chubb had that good of a game, but man, from what he is, like he is the best processing running back in the NFL.

Watching him on tape is so fun from the end zone angle, Nick Chubb. He understands so well how to set up his blockers and where to make the cuts and where to maximize yardage on every single run. And after contact, he looked good from a contact balance standpoint. He looked way back to old Chubb level. So if they continue to get that going and go back to the old Stefanski offense where they're under center a lot, and James can take these big five, seven step drops off of play action and rip those intermediate hole shots, like he's willing to do, like it's going to lead to production.

Like think about the David Njoku touchdown. Did you watch that Adam? That was a great example where like James holds the safety with the, with the stripe of his helmet, uh, for the entire play, looking at a two man route combination to his left, flips back to the right, and just throws basically a 50-50 back shoulder to Njoku. That's the type of stuff Watson was never doing, and it's so valuable to us from a fantasy standpoint. And it's going to lead to more scoring chances for Nick Chubb, who, despite having a tough upcoming schedule, despite only having two targets, I think is a really good buy low. All right, let's go to our second topic here. It's from man versus life. How do we rank Cade Otten moving forward?

I've got some stuff on this, uh, Cade Otten. I went back and dug into him cause the impression of my mind, I saw Ryan Heath really hyping up Cade Otten this week, which of course Ryan Heath nailed this. Um, but when he did,

I replied with the arrested development gif her did you get the job there do you guys have you seen of course egg yeah yeah i just that's how i feel about on he feels so bland he's never been able to produce anything another word that he called and every time i think of that i just think of the of george michael being like she does this really cute thing where she puts the egg in the hard-boiled egg and then she squirts the mail. And it's all time. Jason Beamer's just looking at him like in disgust.

So Kate Otten in four years plus a redshirt at Washington never had more than 350 receiving yards in a season his per route data was not good 17 percent target per hour on rate 1.4 yards per route run at the collegiate level those are career numbers and it's been more of the same as a pro even with Chris Godwin off the field so he has 205 routes run without Chris Godwin for his career. He's averaged 1.05 yards per run on those routes. That's a pretty big sample size this year without Godwin on the field. He has a 22% target per run rate, which is pretty good. Um, but only 1.57 yards per route run. Um, I think Baker trusts him and he will probably be an important part of the offense be used in

the screen game um i think his target rate's going to come up but i don't think there's a whole lot of upside and so if you can potentially sell him based off of this game as like somebody who brings top eight tight end upside i don't view him the same as like tucker craft for example who is broken out um and being just kind of a wafer wire hero that you picked up um i don't think he has nearly as much upside as david and joku uh the offense is great and it's going to pass a lot so there is the potential to run into this type of a game here and there but i think there's gonna be a lot of games where he has seven targets four four or five catches, and like 35 yards. I just don't think he's an explosive player.

We've never seen that from him at any point. Yeah, I do agree. A more encouraging look at Kate Otten, if you want to get there, is just looking at the last two games with Mike Evans going out pretty early two weeks ago and this game without both Evans and Godwin he's got a 22 percent and it's basically it's like a 22 percent target share 22 and a half percent target per route run rate and that ranks pretty high and also he has five explosive plays for the entire season which is low but three of them

have come in the last two games. So if you're getting over 20% of the targets and Tampa Bay is going to throw 40 or more times per game, that's pretty good. He's also getting red zone and end zone targets. The Chiefs are his opponent next week. They give up the most fantasy points to tight ends. He's got the Panthers twice more before the season ends. They give up the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Um, you know, I, he's got the Panthers twice more before the season ends.

They give up the second most fantasy points to tight ends. So I think tight end is actually pretty hard to rank. I think when you look at Andrews pits, uh, and, um, well, let's start with like three guys that aren't hard to rank Kelsey,

Kittle Bowers. And then like McBride is just, you start them and you hope he scores eventually. Um, but there are a lot of tight ends that are almost must start, but I don't know. I don't know if Otten's gonna be better than pits that, you know,

on a week to week basis, but that's pretty much how I value him. I, if I have it on and I I'm starting them and, and that's it. But I do agree with your sentiment that tried to sell high here. You were right about Tucker Kraft, even though he keeps finding the end zone.

All right. Anything else to say? Okay. Let's go to our next topic from Joey. How do we assess the dolphins going forward? Eight targets and a good game at the detriment of Waddle with only four catches. Are there brighter times ahead or is Waddle really just a wide receiver

three? Dan, you want to start here? I think there are brighter times ahead or is Waddle really just a wide receiver three? Dan, you want to start here? I think there are brighter times ahead for this offense. The first game back with Tua, obviously it was a good matchup for passing. We expected more, a little bit more fireworks, but thought Arizona did a good job controlling the ball on offense,

taking some time off the clock, not as many opportunities I expected and a little bit of rust there from the passing game. Not the targets we wanted to see from Waddle. I'm excited. I'm curious if Jacob has any notes on, on the depth average, uh, depth of target with Waddle wasn't exactly what I was hoping for in this game. But again, I don't know necessarily if he's the player we drafted him to be, but I think at this point, his value is he's a good player in my opinion, to trade for coming off a game like this, because you know, some people who may have been the managers who have rostered him

are probably thinking, you know, game back, wasn't that great, wasn't really startable, wasn't a wide receiver too. Maybe it's time to move on, and this might be a good time to buy. So I'm still in on Waddle. We have some breaking news real quick here. Okay, what do we got? Going to be two to four weeks for Brian Thomas thomas jr per jeremy fowler dang that really sucks ribs yeah okay so i'll take neighbors anyway uh yeah jacob what do you have to say about waddle uh going forward and hn and whatnot

yeah i love the the usage for hn his receiving has just been, has been so good this year that he looks like a top five fantasy running back with this role. Um, I, I don't have a whole lot to add on Waddle beyond what Dan put in there. Um, I I'm definitely exercising patients where I have Waddle. If you're alive at this point, you're probably not. Um, and most of those leagues, I think he's somebody you could buy. The only thing I guess I would point out on Waddle is that, like, he's really, really good. Like, let's not lose sight of who he is just because this has been

a frustrating season and last week wasn't good. Since he entered the league, he's the wide receiver at eight in yards per outrun. Behind only Amonera St. Brown, C.D. Lamb, A.J. Brown, um since he entered the league he's the wide receiver eight in yards per out run um behind only a monorail saint brown cd lam aj brown uh pukunuku and nika collins just jefferson tyree kill um he's a stud he was a stud at the collegiate level his yard per run rate at alabama was higher than any receiver his career rate was higher than any receiver has been drafted over the past eight years um he's insane so like i think that's an important note to bring up too is like it's not just the mike reed daniels offense that like boosts the parade efficiency like he's been doing

this he's been this guy for a long time he's been able to win deep he's been able to win short i i know it's frustrating but i think it's going to get better yeah it's hard it's hard to doubt it because you've seen it three games now with with tua devon hn though is he really going to get seven targets per game with two is on the by lower that's insane he's on pace for well over a hundred catches with uh with tua and that can't continue for waddle and the other thing i i really feel like if jaylen waddle is going to be good he has to start making he's gonna have to start hitting on big plays yeah it's just not happening it did a lot in his rookie year or not his rookie year. Sorry. His second season, first year with, uh, with Mike McDaniel, but it, it just, he's not

going to get enough targets. I really don't think so. I'm, I'm frustrated because I could have turned him into Trey McBride and Zach Charbonnet that I didn't with Jacob. And, uh, I didn't trade Waddle cause I also don't have great receivers in that league. So I need, I need to keep him. He had a drop in this game. He would have had a respectable game if he didn't drop that ball, which.

So what did he end up with? Four for forty five. He would have been like five for sixty five ish or something like that. It's not terrible, but I don't know, man. What it's I'm surprised at how many targets a chain is gettingua. It's certainly affecting Jalen Waddell. All right, Caleb Skaggs wants to know the difference for CJ Stroud this year and last year. And I will sum it up, Caleb, with one stat, and that would be explosive play rate.

In 2023, CJ Stroud ranked second in explosive play rate, explosive plays per dropback, 11.9%. That was behind Brock Purdy. This year, he is 29th, 6.9%. And I would even ask, now that we expect Diggs to be missing time here, again, it could be a 20 ACL, we don't know, but let's say he missed time.

Should we even continue to roster CJ Stroud at this point, or is he droppable? He is the number 20 quarterback per game. You got to keep rostering him because Nico Collins, when he comes back, that changes the outlook of Stroud. So drastically, he wasn't even that good with Nico.

He was not even that good. I agree with that, but he was startable at that point. And his outlook is still, you know, it's, it's still one of the most talented throwers. The issue that I've said,

we've talked about this a bunch on this podcast, Jacob and Adam. I don't know if it's been on this one specifically, or some of our other beyond the box scores, um, the Thursday show, but I love you to one day Azar stat this Adam and find just numbers year one to year two with quarterbacks, because I've always been told from the film side that when defensive coordinators have about eight to 10 games of film to work with on a quarterback, they can start to take away the concepts that they leaned on in the passing game. And it makes that job really difficult. And we've seen a lot of anecdotal evidence of quarterbacks really not being able to carry over rookie year to second year. Some have bounced back after that in years three and four, others have been lost causes that

never came again. Davis Mills is really funny example funny example because in year one, he looked like somebody that might be somewhat exciting that they might have found. And then he's just an unplayable player from that point on when teams get film on him. So I think they're taking away a lot of the concepts that worked for Bobby Slowik last year. And it's weird, too, because you would think that with Joe Mixon in the game, a better fit for their run scheme than they had last year with Singletary or Pierce that they'd be able to generate some of those explosive play action shots that they were last year, but they're just not able to do it right now. Um, and I feel like teams are very in tune when I watched the Texans. I feel like teams are very in tune with what Bobby Sloak is trying to accomplish specifically the Packers Texans game. So I watched that one on tape, felt like the Packers were all over the concepts. The Texans are running.

Yeah. The Packers really embarrassed them. The pressure rate is up, which is pretty crazy because it was really high last year. He's been pressured even more this year. It's been an embarrassing year for the offensive line. The other thing is it makes sense. In conjunction with the explosive play being down, his average depth of target is way down from nine yards last year to 7.5. That's a pretty big change there.

I will say with Nico going back, they've got a chance to have some real shootouts here at the end of the year. They've got Dallas in week 11, they've got Jacksonville week 13, and then they have a buy and then they have Miami. That could be a shootout Kansas city. If Houston shows up,

that could be a shootout. I think that D that defense is easier to attack through the air than on the ground. And then fantasy championship is against Baltimore. That could definitely be a shootout. So there could be some fireworks in the second half for Houston if the offensive line can play better.

Yeah, and by the way, if you just heard Jacob run down that schedule, you might want to consider trading Joe Mixon for the moon because he gets Kansas City and Baltimore and week 16 and 17. And for my money, those are the two worst matchups for running backs. And again,

you're trading. He he's arguably the best running back in fantasy on a per game basis. He's 20, 21 or more fantasy points in every game that he hasn't left with an injury. Uh, absolutely incredible. Uh, actually 23.4 or more fantasy points in,

in the four games he hasn't left with an injury. That's a great call. If you can get what he's producing, if you can get that back in a trade, you do it. It literally can't be better. He's been top five running back every single week. If you can get that value, you're maxing out. It's not like he could possibly be better. He could get hurt. He could play worse

in those matchups. I think that makes a lot of sense. Yeah. You got to get the moon for him, though. I think, just my theory, not statistics-based, my theory on C.J. Stroud is that it's a tank-del issue. I know I've said this before, but I'm just waiting for the report. Yeah, you know, I'm still not all the way back from the broken leg. Or maybe it's next offseason where he says,

I wasn't 100% all year, now I finally feel healthy. And the guy's giving him nothing and nothing downfield. And he only hit on two deep balls to Tank Dell last year. He threw six of them. But this year, he's only thrown one deep ball to Tank Dell. That's 30 or more air yards for me. He's only thrown one of those to Tank Dell. Almost all of his big plays have been Nico Collins, basically. So Collins will make Stroud better, but he doesn't run that much. I'm assuming Diggs is out for a while. Tank Dell does not appear to be the same player. I know it's gutsy. I wouldn't drop him, but I think it's at least

worth asking. If you have a stud quarterback and CJ Stroud and you want to pick up Cedric Tillman, I think it's justifiable. And my last question for you guys would be if someone in your league dropped CJ Stroud, would you rush to pick him up? No, not necessarily. Not one QB league.

Yeah, it's not, not a rush weeks. It's going to, I think like this week, he's probably going to be outside my top 20 quarterback. We'll see what the implied total comes in for Houston, but it looks really gross.

Okay. That's going to do it for beyond the box score. Thank you all very much. I, uh, I guess I'll speak to you on a future beyond the box score Thursday episodes since I have been shamed into doing one, but for now, uh, we'll talk to you tomorrow and a big night for me. Go Yankees. Go Knicks.

Go Giants. I'll go to, if we go two and one, that'd be great. Although one of them would have to be the Yankees. Yeah, you'd care the most about that one. All right. You'd go one and you'd obviously rather go one and two with Yankees than two and one with Giants and Knicks, I suppose. Yeah, oh yeah, 100%.

All right, adios, everybody. Talk to you tomorrow. Bye-bye. Talk to you tomorrow.