Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Jets Outlook, Trade Targets, TE Overview and More (11/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:00:33 What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. This is Beyond the Box score,

Starting point is 00:00:53 advanced stats from simple people. We welcome you to fantasy football today presented by VET MGM, the sports book born in Vegas. Adam Azer, Jacob Gibbs and Dan Schneier. Hey, Jacob and Dan, the Detroit Lions did something that no team has done since 2012. What did they do? Throw five interceptions and win a game?

Starting point is 00:01:11 Yeah. Nice. Let's go. And of course you remember the last time it happened, Dan. It was, of course, go ahead. I don't remember the last time that happened, but I think it was the Rams game with golf with the Rams. You don't remember it now.

Starting point is 00:01:25 I'm just, it was an Eli, Eli Monday night football against the Vikings when they had like Josh Freeman. Nah, there's no, you would not remember. It was the Falcons in 2012. I was just setting you up for failure. Of course I'm not going to remember a random Falcons game for 2012. Yeah, Jacob, you're muted. Were you trying to say anything or, cause I saw your mouth move. Okay, that's fine. Hey Jacob, what's going on?

Starting point is 00:01:46 Nice Chiefs jacket there. Thank you. Nine and oh baby. Another well-deserved win. Thanks reps. Thanks everybody. Fun season. Who's second in the MVP race for you guys?

Starting point is 00:01:59 Baker Mayfield. No, it's a very difficult question cause it was Jared Goff, but I don't know if I can. For Lamar's one, Josh Allen would be two for me. Is he really having that good of a year, Josh Allen? Yes, considering his situation, yes, I mean, I watch him make plays every week that go above and beyond for me, MVP is trying to sort out the individual performance of the quarterback

Starting point is 00:02:21 versus their, I guess you would call it supporting. Why does it have to be the quarterback? Why can't it you would call it. Why quarterback? Why does it have to be the quarterback? Why can't it be Justin Jefferson? Why can't it be Karen Henry? It will never for me not be the quarterback. I've watched too much tape in the NFL to understand that the quarterback makes the most difference by such a wide margin

Starting point is 00:02:36 that some fans don't even really understand it and are unwilling to acknowledge it. But when you consider the ball placement, the timing of the offense, and all of those factors, as a fan of the Giants, I understand this more than anyone else, the timing of the offense, and all of those factors, as a fan of the Giants, I understand this more than anyone else. The quarterback makes the biggest difference in your wins and losses by such a margin.

Starting point is 00:02:52 Okay. Well, it's a tough question. Let's just give it to Lamar Jackson three times. It is, yeah. I mean, Lamar is the obvious pick. Let's talk about last night's game, Detroit 26, Houston 23. Before we dive into that, I'll preview what's ahead. We have, of course, our advanced stats from Jacob. We'll give you some news updates. Not a lot, thankfully. We will talk about the Jets struggles. We'll talk about Brian Thomas Jr. We'll talk about the tight end position and we'll talk about schedules. I've broken down the best schedules

Starting point is 00:03:18 for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers and talk about who you might want to target and wide receivers and talk about who you might want to target going forward or if it even matters because this year I don't know that it does. I mean schedules matter matchups absolutely matter but to me there's so few bad matchups out there. I just like unless a team is playing maybe the Eagles right now maybe the Chiefs, Ravens run defense, something like that. I think there are other bad matchups, right? Like the Chargers, for example, is a really bad matchup for offenses because yes, because the Chargers are, I think they're allowing the fewest points per game. And in addition to that, on offense, they control the clock and grind the clock. That's the biggest thing that kills me for when I'm having fantasy players. So I'm looking for stuff like that, even like Chicago, for example, their defense has fallen

Starting point is 00:04:08 off a bit, but they're very grindy on offense too. And then you go to Chicago, for example, playing that wind and you can't throw the football through that wind. So I'm looking for weather and I'm looking for kind of the opposite, like offenses that grind the ball out and, and, and provide fewer snaps, obsessions for the opposing offense. Yeah. And I don't think I say about the Chargers. Their next two games are against Cincinnati, Baltimore, then Atlanta. So we'll find out a little bit more about them. They've had such an easy schedule. But anyway, let's continue here. Let's talk about Monday, Sunday night football. What a comeback, what a win. And what an awesome halftime interview with Dan Campbell is like, we just need to get a turnover. And then they immediately get a turnover on the first play.

Starting point is 00:04:46 And Jacob, what are your thoughts on the Lions comeback win over Houston? I'm excited to watch it. I've been told I only need to watch the second half. I, full disclosure, was not feeling great this week and also traveled. So the only game I watched was the Chiefs, but I'm catching up on everything.

Starting point is 00:05:02 Some interesting notes that I've found so far in this game is that Stroud just continues to really struggle with pressure and that's just been a huge problem because I mean, their line is up there. It's like obviously probably gotta be the Bears is the worst off into the line of the NFL, but I feel like Houston's is up there with anybody. He had a 34% off target rate when pressured in week 10

Starting point is 00:05:23 and that just continues to be a problem for him. They are just really trying to run the offense through the ground game, especially with Nico Collins out. And it's not pretty. I am not looking forward to watching a bunch of two yard runs in this game. Yeah, there was a lot of that, but it was an exciting game. So yeah, Jacob was actually not going to do the show today because he hasn't been feeling well, but we do appreciate him hanging out. And, you know, and even though he hasn't watched a ton of football, he still can give us the metrics

Starting point is 00:05:50 that we need to know. All right, Dan, how about you? Any big takeaways from this one? Yeah, biggest takeaway is the Houston Texans offense as we move forward. Jacob hinted at some of the concerns, namely being the offensive line and the current state of the Texas offensive line

Starting point is 00:06:03 as they deal with more injuries. I also think there is some, you know, at least a little hint of what we see a lot in the NFL, which is quarterback and offensive scheme look unbelievable in year one, in year two, defensive coordinators get a lot more tape on it. All they need, they say is eight to 10 games to take away some of the concepts that we're working and is there a counterpunch right now? There is no counterpunch. I saw stat today. games to take away some of the concepts that we're working and is there a counter punch right now? There is no counter punch.

Starting point is 00:06:26 I saw that today. The giants are the obvious one, but the Texans are second or the giants in Texas are first in the NFL in most third down snaps on offense this year. What does that tell you? That tells you that they're not getting themselves first downs on first and second down. They're leaving themselves in a lot of these third and long situations. And their offense has been really unsuccessful in the run game. Last night, Joe Mixon, I think it was 25 carries became one of the, I forgot this stat, but like one of the first players to ever get under 50

Starting point is 00:06:55 yards with 25 carries, uh, or more in a game, they can't run block. They can't keep the offense on script at all right now. I hope it'll change when Nico Collins is back. He's that good of a talent and that good of a receiver and he opens up that much space in the offense that it's possible. But right now, this does not look like an offense that's going to win fantasy leagues. It looks like an offense at times you can even bench

Starting point is 00:07:17 Wow, okay. Okay, let's everyone let's just calm down a little bit here. This is the let me just lay it out for you. Here's the deal. Joe Mixon is an absolute must start running back. He had five straight 100 yard games before struggling last night. He still scored 17 points last night, but he does have the toughest playoff schedule. He has Kansas City and Baltimore,

Starting point is 00:07:37 two hardest run defenses in football in week 16 and 17. So you do need to factor that in. If you can trade them for equal value, I think it's a good idea. But he still I mean Detroit good run defense and because he had 44 receiving yards, he had a rushing touchdown. He came through. But just keep that in mind. CJ Stroud goes into that big once Nico Collins comes back. He goes into that big group of quarterbacks that are basically the same.

Starting point is 00:08:01 But you just depending on the matchup, you change your rankings. Is he a must start? Absolutely not. Is he someone I'm dropping? No. And that's what I was saying., depending on the matchup, you change your rankings. Is he a must start? Absolutely not. Is he someone I'm dropping? No. And that's what I was saying. Play him in the matchups. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:08:11 Play the matchups. Nico Collins could be the number one wide receiver in fantasy going forward. It wouldn't surprise anyone. Tankdale is a number two slash number three wide receiver going forward. And that's it. Like everything you said about the Texans is true, but they still have so much talent that you're starting Nico, you're starting Mixon and Tankdell in a three receiver league.

Starting point is 00:08:27 I have him in two leagues where it's either three receivers or it's two flex. I'm starting him pretty much every week. You know what I mean? It's like, you just can't get away from it. I might get away from some of these matches with Tankdell for sure. Yeah, maybe with Tankdell.

Starting point is 00:08:40 He was wide open. He was open in the end zone for what could have been a nice touch. And I'm not sold that CJ Stroud is even in that group of quarterbacks. I mean, he was wide open. He was open in the end zone for what could have been a nice time. And I'm not sold that that CJ Stroud is even in that group of quarterbacks. I mean, I think he is. I think if you look at his first four games, he scored 22.7 points against the Colts. He scored 27.5 against the Jaguars and in the middle, he had two bad games against the

Starting point is 00:08:58 Bears and the Vikings. So that's kind of matchup dependent there. And those were the four games he played with Nico then Nico got hurt in week five But of course he had digs in that stretch. So that's yeah I mean, I think if we're gonna disagree on one thing it could be strad. Yeah I don't think you have to drop him because he gets if you care about this. He gets Baltimore in in week 17. He gets Miami who currently their third against quarterbacks, but they're paper Tigers in week 15. He gets Jacksonville. He gets Miami who currently they're third against quarterbacks, but they're paper tigers in week 15.

Starting point is 00:09:27 He gets Jacksonville. He gets Dallas next week. He's got a really good schedule for the most part coming up. Now the line one take on the flip side of this. Oh yeah. Sorry. Were you going to get into lines? Let's talk about the lions here.

Starting point is 00:09:39 Right? Like they're just so there are another team is like you have to deal with some ups and downs. Jameer Gibbs, two straight games with fewer than 15 PPR fantasy points. That's not what we expected from him. But overall, he's the number five running back per game in non PPR. He's the number eight running back per game in full PPR.

Starting point is 00:09:55 He's only on pace for 42 catches. Montgomery, he scored a touchdown. He's been pretty inefficient running the football lately. But he scores all the time. And for the season, he's number 13 and non PPR number 18 per game in full PPR. A golf, just a weird game. But yeah, I don't know, man. It's like, yeah, what are your thoughts? And by the way, the same laporta injury could be interesting here, could change these little bit. He's got a shoulder injury, but Dan, what are your thoughts on Alliance?

Starting point is 00:10:23 I think the biggest takeaway I had was Jameson Williams. I mean, he looked so damn good in this game from the catch that he made that was behind him from golf that he zipped in there that he adjusted to behind him making plays like that, that people didn't really give him credit for. But you saw on his tape at Alabama that he had that upside to be a complete wide receiver. The hits he takes over the middle. He's now become an intermediate threat in this offense in addition to being a vertical threat. And I think that moving forward, Jameson Williams is not somebody I would want out of my lineups. This is the best offense in the NFL from a scoring standpoint. You're getting a player

Starting point is 00:10:55 who is running a lot of routes in this offense, is now using the intermediate level, has the talent to make catches and big plays in the intermediate level. In addition to what he hasn't done, didn't do this week, but can do at any time, the D path. And Goff did throw him a ball in the D path. I believe it was intercepted at least one that I remember. So Jamison Williams to me has become a must start moving forward. Just giving-

Starting point is 00:11:15 Wow. Yeah. No, what are you talking about, dude? Stand by it. It's just not enough targets. They're just not enough targets. Don't care. Look, if Laporta's out, that could change things, but this team- That's part of the issue here. Yeah. But they like, okay, they almost lost this

Starting point is 00:11:29 game and Jared golf through 30 passes. That's like one of the highest marks of the year for Jared golf. That is the second support me on this one. You're high on years in as well. Correct. I'm a bit concerned by the lower volume overall for the receivers. I'm out and this is just a bad take. If I don't even have Jacob, I got nothing. I do love the way they're using them. I'm talking about like a wide receiver three flex. Like you're looking at guys in, in addition to the players you're playing.

Starting point is 00:11:58 That's what I mean by that. Like a wide receiver, three facts, like the players you're playing in that position, they may have some volume on a week basis, but then they don't have volume the next week. We're talking about somebody in one of the better offenses in the end. Yeah, that's offense in the NFL with explosive play potential. To me, this is an easy replay. I think I get the sentiment. It's kind of what we've been dealing with Xavier worthy, except he sucks on doing anything.

Starting point is 00:12:21 But it's like the upside is so big each week and unless you have stacked receivers and you don't need to start them, if it's like, he's kind of a toss up where it's like, why does he were 20 to 30 and you've got other guys you don't want to miss out on that potential 20 or 30 points with Jameson Williams. He could come at any time because the offense is so good and because he's so good and the usage is good. I love the way they use them over the middle. Like you're talking about to get yak in addition to the deep stuff. And so like that, it's not like must start necessarily in the way that we think of with some of the

Starting point is 00:12:48 top players. But in the chat and I respect it. It was not a good take. It was presented in a poor way. But the way I look at fantasy is for these flex wide receiver three decisions again, I'm willing to take the boom. Okay, that's no, I agree with that over some of these supposed target guys that don't actually get targets on a weekly basis.

Starting point is 00:13:04 Yeah, no, I agree with that. But he does not get targets on a weekly basis. He gets right. He can make it five. And now comparing him to Tank Del, which Rob is doing here is very interesting. I would probably take Jameson Williams over Tank Del. Yeah, with me. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, way more faith in the offense. Jameson Williams had 140 air yards in week 10. The Lions offense over the two previous weeks with him out had 149 total air yards. So it definitely adds a completely different element to the offense to have him back.

Starting point is 00:13:31 All right, well that is Lions and Texans. Unless there's anything. I've got something for the chat too. They're saying like, Jacob doesn't watch games. Jacob said last year he doesn't watch games, doesn't like watching games. No, I said last year that I don't watch every single game because that would be insane.

Starting point is 00:13:46 I don't watch the Giants every single week. I don't watch the Patriots when they're starting to cover reset. All that stuff. I have a life. That's why I didn't watch all the games this weekend as my sister was in town from Tech 7, seen her a long time. I'm going to catch up on all the games. If you watch my Twitter feed, just constantly littered with videos of film.

Starting point is 00:14:00 Yeah, that's true. He's not a robot, guys. I know sometimes he may sound a little bit robotic. He's not a robot. What does he sound like? What does Jacob sound like? Protect Jacob at all costs. It pisses me off.

Starting point is 00:14:14 People are like, all he does is, you know, he's just stats. He's just stats. And it's like, no, just because I love stats and I have better stats than the other people doesn't mean that I don't watch the game. I love this version of Jacob. This is the angriest I've ever seen Jacob. He has smiled the entire time. And it's basically not raised his voice. Meanwhile, if you saw me on the live stream yesterday during the Giants game, like I was flipping out. So this

Starting point is 00:14:36 is, oh, I wish I'd see, I gotta go back and watch that actually in the chat. Somebody said they would pay to see us dual watch a Giants game, but I don't think people are going to get what they pay for if they do that because I'm now apathetic toward the Giants and I have been apathetic for quite some time. So I wouldn't have been going off on the Giants in there in that game. I just sit there kind of quietly and disgusted watching the quarterback play some of the worst football I've ever seen from a starting quarterback in the NFL. Yeah, it's pretty bad.

Starting point is 00:15:03 All right. Beyond the box score. Who's coming up this week guys, this week we got Jamie Eisenberg, another classic FFT guy. So when we went through the list, we had a bunch of FFT guys on this that we want to get on the show and everyone was really receptive and open to it. Everyone was interested. People are excited about it. Heath was excited.

Starting point is 00:15:21 David said Jamie said it. And then we got to Adam and he's like, do I really have to do this? I really don't want to do this. Uh, behind, you know, and so finally we kind of bullied Adam into being on the show. So eventually Adam will be on the show. I don't remember that, but did I agree? Maybe I did agree. These are some funny Jacob Gibbs comments in the chat.

Starting point is 00:15:39 We're going to get to them in a moment. We'll be right back after this break on fantasy football today. Jacob may be the love child of J.J. Jacker, Ryerson and Chris Harris. I can see that. Well, Harris watches the film and J.J.'s more of a stag guy. Yeah, Jacob looks like a member of Average Joe's from Dodgeball. Got the color scheme.

Starting point is 00:16:01 It's probably the bet, the funniest of all the commenters on a consistent basis, I would say. Who is Rickles Cage? He's good, he's good. Yeah, I think I love this. Is that the Rob Lowe with the NFL hat is his avatar, I really like that too. Oh yeah.

Starting point is 00:16:16 Jacob is just salty because the Chiefs got exposed by the Broncos. Wow. LOL. No, I don't know. Hilarious, hilarious. It's crazy, because every single week that I watch the Chiefs, Wow. LOL. No, no, no. Hilarious. Hilarious. It's crazy because every single week that I watch the Chiefs, I get frustrated with Andy

Starting point is 00:16:29 Reid's conservatism in the red zone and overall, and it never matters because they win every game. It's so crazy. It hasn't like come back to bite him yet. Yeah. All right. News and notes. So Joe Flacco is going to stay the quarterback.

Starting point is 00:16:41 I'm going to just repeat what I said yesterday. Carolina did not commit to a quarterback coming out of the bye. Tank Bigsby's beat up. Aaron Jones has injured ribs. Those are the ones we're keeping an eye on. The tight end, Sam Laporta and Dalton Kincaid are injured right now.

Starting point is 00:16:54 And they get Jacksonville and Kansas City. Laporta gets Jacksonville. And I didn't mention that about the Lions. Their next two games are Jacksonville and Indianapolis. So Bonanza. And Dalton Kincaid gets the Chiefs next week, then a bye offensive line. The Jets offensive line is struggling. Tyron Smith is struggling and he left with a neck injury. Saints left tackle. Taliesin Fugaga, rookie left tackle left with a thigh injury. Colts left tackle Bernard Raymond, who's missed

Starting point is 00:17:19 some time. He missed a game with a concussion. He left with a knee injury. I think I could be wrong about this. I think when Tevin Jenkins left with an ankle injury, the Bears may have been down all five of their original starters on the offensive line. I think that's true as well. It's unbelievable what's happened there. Yeah, so that's, you just can't win like that. And Tristan Wirfs for the Buccaneers,

Starting point is 00:17:39 he's going to miss maybe a couple weeks. They have a bye, he has a MCL injury. I think they avoided a bad scenario there, but they basically have three or four straight buys. The Buccaneers have the the bye week, then the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. So they are in good shape. Other news, anything big here?

Starting point is 00:18:01 Yeah, there's some, there's, oh, Micah Parsons called out Mike McCarthy. Did you see Micah Parsons quotes about Mike? Yeah, that's some, there's, oh, Michael Parsons called out Mike McCarthy. Did you see Michael Parsons quotes about Mike? Yeah, that was a crazy quote by Parsons. Let me see if I can get it. So, so I don't, you know, misquote I listened to the whole interview too.

Starting point is 00:18:15 Cause I think Jordan River or somebody posted the entire interview. I mean, the entire quote, it wasn't as bad, but it kind of still was because he ends it by saying, uh, you know, Zach Martin put in more time and work than Mike McCarthy ever could have or ever had something like Mike can leave and go wherever he wants guys. I kind of feel bad for guys like Zach Martin guys who might be on their last year on their way out because that's who I wanted to hold the trophy for. You want to win games and do great things with those

Starting point is 00:18:41 types of legends who put in more time and work than Mike McCarthy ever did. Those are the kinds of guys that I have so much sympathy for, sympathy and hurt for. Trey Lockerbie It's also kind of funny because it's like, no, actually, Micah, Mike McCarthy can't just leave and go wherever he wants to. This is literally his last chance at head coaching job. And he will never be an offensive coordinator in the NFL. No one can, his whole style is so stupid. It's just the same 11 personnel when you're one-on-one matchups. It's not really like any scheme involved in it. And it's like been figured out completely almost as, as it was in Green Bay, uh, with, you know, his first firing. So I don't know. I didn't really understand that quote. Yeah. Well, pretty bad day for the Cowboys and really Jerry Jones, just, just own your

Starting point is 00:19:24 mistake and put the curtains up. Put the curtain up at the time. Do it already. It's like well why don't we just tear down the whole stadium and build a new one? No just put the curtains up it's not that big of a deal. All right let's get to some advanced metrics in just just a moment but right now, if you haven't signed up yet for BetMGM, use the bonus code fantasy, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how it works.

Starting point is 00:19:54 Download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game, and you will receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets. If your bet loses, just make sure you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. Now look, you've all you've seen me, you know, if I can do it, you can do it. I downloaded the app. I use the bonus code fantasy. It was great. You can do it. Download bet MGM. By the way, I hope you guys got my just a moment, right? Corporate accounts, speaking office space. Right? Right? Right? Right? Right?

Starting point is 00:20:25 Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right?

Starting point is 00:20:33 Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right?

Starting point is 00:20:41 Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? Right? at. Jameson Williams is over two yards per hour run on the year, which shocked me when I saw today. I've just been catching up on where everybody's at with the most recent data. We got Jawan Jennings back. Where is he at after another week? George Pickens, where is he at? Sixth overall, by the way, for George Pickens in the yard spot run on the year. But yeah, Jameson Williams is 20th among wide receivers, 2.06 yards part run.

Starting point is 00:21:05 That's a really good indicator. I think I'm leaning more and more towards Dan. He's just a really explosive player and a really, really explosive offense. And especially with LaPorta going down, I do think those two have affected each other this year. The other one was Jameer Gibbs had a 61% share of the running back rushes this week, which

Starting point is 00:21:24 is his second highest mark of the year. And so that is good. Last week, his usage came down a bit because I think it was mostly game script dependent. They're in an easy game that they're winning, but I think they've really kind of shifted towards Gibbs if all things are equal because he's just been so freaking good this year.

Starting point is 00:21:43 I think Gibbs hurt his ankle in the game two weeks ago. Oh, yeah. And that's why he, but no, cause it wasn't really spoken about. I just saw it on, I do feel like they've moved to me and toward Gibbs as well though. Yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:21:56 I have some more stats about that. If you like David Montgomery in his first five games, he was on pace for 255 carries. In his last four games, he's on pace for 255 carries. In his last four games, he's on pace for only 200 carries. So that's David Montgomery. And I forgot to look at the carries for Gibbs, but they haven't changed their run rate. They have an even higher run rate in the last four games

Starting point is 00:22:15 in the first five, but Montgomery is getting fewer carries. All right, go ahead, Jacob, sorry. And I did want to talk about George Pickens for a while because he's just been insanely unlucky this year. Scott Bear has done a really good job documenting it, like penalties, plays called back touchdowns, called back all this stuff. And even with all of the like big chunk plays called back, he's still sixth in yards per hour run, which is crazy.

Starting point is 00:22:39 He's averaging 2.6 yards per hour round of the year with Russell Wilson under center, it's at three point two, which only trails Nico Collins and AJ Brown. It's above Justin Jefferson. And part of that is he isn't, he's weird where it's like not quite a full-time player. You know what I'm saying? Like they're, they're, they maximize the routes that he's actually out there.

Starting point is 00:22:58 He's getting thrown into a lot. They don't have him run a lot of empty routes. I don't know if you've noticed that, but like most receiver ones play like 80, 90% of the snaps. He doesn't. But still like he's been really, really good on the year. Um, he's top five in red zone and end zone target share. And I think the, the rest of season schedule sets up for the Steelers to be passing the ball a ton and probably avoiding the run against the Ravens and Chiefs and people like that. And I think, I mean, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Pickens is like top eight, top,

Starting point is 00:23:29 I mean, you could push him, he could lead the receivers and fantasy points from this point on and it wouldn't surprise me at all. So the only thing I'd say about George Pickens schedule is that it looks now, look, I ask you, do you think Cleveland is a tough matchup? And a lot of people would probably say yes. They're giving up the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers. They've been a cake matchup so far. Do they fix things during their buy? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:23:52 But so far, like if you look at his upcoming schedule, George Pickens has the Ravens, the Browns twice. I think I just said they're giving up the fifth most fantasy points and the Bengals who are 20th against wide receivers. So that's great. After that though, his playoff schedule is the Eagles who have been absolutely phenomenal five weeks in a row. They are the best defense in football over the last five weeks and they faced like alpha number ones at lamb, of course with Cooper rush. But other than that, like neighbors,

Starting point is 00:24:19 Jamar chase, Amari Cooper with the Browns. I wouldn't call him that, but there was one other guy and they've done great. Um, and Kansas city in week 17, they played Baltimore and week 16. That's great. Kansas city in week 17. So two of his three matchups are the Eagles and the chiefs. Does that concern you at all for George Pickens in the playoffs? There, I just, to me, George Pickens is sort of a matchup independent guy and it's more important that there's going to be pass volume. I think he can kind of win just about any matchup. Like physically, he's such a freak that like he can just go get the ball. Obviously, like the pressure from the Chiefs scares me a little bit.

Starting point is 00:24:54 And like Pittsburgh's offense might just like hole in against either one of those teams and only put up 10 points. But if they're playing well and like in a shootout, I'm more encouraged by the fact that there's going to be passing, I think, in those games as they're playing from behind. And so if we see nine, ten targets, it's a pretty good chance he comes out with a big play on at least one of them. On the note about Cleveland, I think those two matchups are actually great for him. They are really susceptible to big plays because they're really, really aggressive. They blitz a lot. They play a ton of man and press coverage, and that's great for Pickens. Pickens is one of the absolute best producers against press coverage in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:25:25 Last year against Cleveland, he went for 127 and one. And then the other game he didn't do as much, but that was a game that Kenny Pickens had 106 yards. So I actually do think that's a good matchup for him. Okay. So we've talked about Detroit, we've talked about George Pickens, what's next? Juan Jennings.

Starting point is 00:25:41 Juan Jennings is so awesome. He's wide receiver four in your archipelago run on the year behind Olin Nico, AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson. Wide receiver. He's a definite must start. We can agree all agree on that. Correct? No, no, no.

Starting point is 00:25:56 Yes. Yes. We've ever seen the better offenses and he's the first. We had hold on. We have very different definitions of must start. I had him a wide receiver 16 this week and I think that's basically where he's the first. We had hold on. We have very different definitions of must start. I had him at wider series 16 this week and I think that's basically where he's at is the top 15. My decision. Basically, I'm pressing to the top 12 in any given matchup to

Starting point is 00:26:12 call a guy a must start when he has Christian McCaffrey, Debo Samuel and George Kittle on the field with him on a team. That's about I you forever. And I was a must start. He's not Brandon. I you let him go out there and be Brandon. I you before we call him Brandon. I you and I don't know. Like He's not Brandon I you let him go out there and be Brandon I you before we call him Brandon I you and I don't know I'm look I'm thrilled.

Starting point is 00:26:28 It doesn't really matter because I'm thrilled to have Joanne Jennings right and I'm in a three receiver league I can't imagine I'm sitting in for people playing in two receiver leagues with a flex I don't know that Joanne Jennings is a must start. He's like I don't know how many okay because to me there are not that many must starts I don't even know if there are 12 that only start two receivers I don't even know if there are 12 must starts. We're playing in leagues that only start two receivers.

Starting point is 00:26:45 And many more people than play in three receiver leagues. The majority of people play in two receiver leagues. I don't agree with that, but. It's not an opinion, it's an absolute fact. I know from our CBS data. This feels very, is there status? No, no, no, our CBS. We'll let it ride, we'll let it ride.

Starting point is 00:26:57 Our CBS, like just CBS websites, most of them are two receiver leagues. CBS website leagues, most of them are two receiver leagues. Okay. But Jawan Jennings is not a guy you just set it and forget it. You don't even think about it. That's... I do think he is the rest of the season, especially because they're another team that's going to be in a lot of shootouts potentially.

Starting point is 00:27:14 They've got the Seahawks and the Packers, then the Bills, maybe not against the Bears, but then they have the Rams, Dolphins and Lions. Like basically every game has shootout upside. I think it just depends on what your definition of must start is wide receivers pretty rough this year. From yesterday though, like what Jacob just went over with those advanced stats, that was the,

Starting point is 00:27:30 that was essentially one of the better wide receiver roles in the entire league this week, correct? On the slate? Yeah, he led the team in everything receiving including routes. He ran around on every drop back, but one, he was playing on the perimeter more than in the slot. Right.

Starting point is 00:27:44 I think he's basically just plugged into the IUK role, which might be volatile. Um, but I think when they're playing in games where they're gonna be throwing a lot, then it, it, I think he's, I don't know, like, I think he's gonna be pretty consistent, honestly. I hope so. Okay, go on. All right. I don't know, honestly, what else I had beyond that. Take from Rob Joe, like top five receivers are considered must start in most leagues, regardless of format. Maybe not this year due to RB strength, but historicist. It's a great agreed. Adam, like Rob's right. Like when I say must add that you need to start 30 receivers, like what are we talking about? There's only like 20 receivers starting a week. What is that?

Starting point is 00:28:22 So why are we even here? If you're telling me that 30 wide receivers must start players, then what are we doing here? Okay. Are we telling you what to do with Alec Pierce every week? This, that is not in the top 30. What are you talking about? I know why I'm saying we don't even have to talk about the top 30 wide receivers because they're just must starts. Throw them in your lineup. Absolutely bonkers take to say that there are 30 must start wide receivers. By definition, that is false unless every single person is playing in a three receiver league. If you're playing in a two receiver league with a flex, and as Rob said in his quote in his note there, running back is so good this year, there are not 30 must start wide receiver.

Starting point is 00:29:05 Look, I've had this discussion before. It's a difference of opinion. I don't think I have a different threshold for players who are absolute must starts. It's like in almost every scenario, I'm starting them. So for example, David Montgomery would be like on the border of a must start running back. He's running back 18. That means there are per game in full PPR. That means that I don't consider there to be 24 must start running backs. Like no way. I don't think Ramondre Stevenson is a must start running back.

Starting point is 00:29:37 You know, it might be top 24 on a weekly basis, but hey, if I picked up a streamer off waivers, I'm happy to play that guy over Ramondre ifke is a better match. You know what I mean? So I, that's just the way I look at the term must start. It's like you don't even think about it. So I was in part, I was in part trolling you, but we do have somewhat of a difference of opinion. Yeah, that's fine. If you want to make it a broader definition of must start, then yeah, Joanne Jennings reminds me of the, you know what though? I will say this. Um, I am happy with the direction this went because there are other directions this could have gone. Uh, and for those who don't know, it's a quick shout out reminder to last year's, uh, debate over what a breakout player is between that

Starting point is 00:30:18 and a little, little heated there between Adam and Eve for those who want to write the long time fans of the podcast might remember this moment. I think I handled it a little bit better than maybe those two did, but I don't know. Yeah, I think you definitely did. I would agree with that. All right. I'll side with Adam. Thank you. I mean, the chat is siding with Adam. I think this was mostly me just trolling him. Tough day for Dan. Yeah, I do think you're calling mostly. Well, wait till we read the email we have for Dan. for Dan. Yeah, I do think you are calling mostly. Well, wait till you read the email we have for dad. Okay, kill today baby.

Starting point is 00:30:47 Just snap. Oh, sorry. I thought you were done. Go ahead. A few other quick ones. Jalen Warren's you should shut up this week, but I do think that was because Najah Harris got banged up in the fourth quarter. A lot of those carries came after that. I don't know if you guys covered that yesterday or not, but before the fourth quarter it was 14 rush temps for Harris and seven for Warren. It gets basically the same role that we've seen. But I do think Warren is healthier than he has been all year and looked good. And so I'm excited for him. I wanted to bring up my boy Drake May. Yes. He had another really high pressure rate and

Starting point is 00:31:16 did not really took one sack, but I haven't watched it. I think it was probably a scramble attempt because he it was a sack for zero yards. So he had one of the highest pressure rates 38% and only that one sack and also had a really low off target rate. I'm really excited to get into his game because that was a tough matchup. Montez-Sweat did not play right? He didn't play. Oh he didn't play? He did play. Oh I thought he was I thought he was you know I didn't check but I thought he was off the injury

Starting point is 00:31:42 report or at least let's check. It was all I know for I know from someone who was that play was wildly windy game there. Montez Web passing. He played. Okay. I don't know how much he played, but he played. They almost had a Mahomes play too as he's rolling toward the sideline. I hope Mahomes Allen play and he inches away from throwing a touchdown pass where the receiver just didn't get it. And I thought I thought there were some really good snaps on his tape that I watched. I watched May after every week. He's one of the first players I watched because he's one of my favorite prospects in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:32:09 Two really random ones. Jacob Dobbins, I know it was a little bit scary to see Gus Edwards get so involved, but I actually am pretty okay with this if I have Dobbins. I don't want him to get hurt. And I don't like that they were just grinding it out of the middle with him so much more than he's ever had in his career. So I don't like that they were just grinding it out of the middle with him so much, more than he's ever

Starting point is 00:32:25 had in his career. So I'm totally fine with those attempts going to Gus. And for what it's worth, Dobbins had the highest route participation rate and target share. They hardly threw it all. So take those rates with a grain of salt. But still, if they get more involved in the receiving game and less involved on up-the-middle touches,

Starting point is 00:32:42 that's totally, totally fine with me. The other guy was Curtis Samuel was a full-time player in week 10 with Amari and Kian Coleman out. I don't know what's going on with Amari and then Coleman, it sounded like it might be a multi-week thing. He didn't do much. Samuel didn't do much, but I just want to point out that 81% of his routes came as a perimeter receiver. And so I think that he can potentially do that role if need be and not be just a slot bound guy. Some snap counts, DiMario Douglas played only 42% of the snaps, the Patriots were in three wide receiver sets for a season low 42.6% of the snaps and they were playing with a

Starting point is 00:33:18 lead in a windy environment. So I don't really know what else to say about DiMario Douglas. I just know that there are some managers out there who are struggling at wide receiver. And I do still think there's some weekly appeal to him because he's had nine targets in like four of his last six games. If I had to make a bet on a Patriots wide receiver from the film I've watched and the upgrade in kind of the snaps and targets and just kind of where I see this offense heading it's cash on booty. That would be the receiver that I buying there with Drake may. All right. Alec Pearson, Adonai Mitchell played 86% or more of the snaps without Michael

Starting point is 00:33:49 Pittman and TJ Hawkinson only played 46% of the snaps. That's two weeks in a row. He's been right around the number. We'll see when that if that increases, just easing him back in probably. Yeah. Josh Oliver's been good. No Saints wide receiver played more than 55% of the snaps. That would be MVS and Mason Tipton. And Pittsburgh wide receiver Mike Williams played only 12% of the snaps and caught big touchdown. All right, if you think it's been rough on Dan, just wait till we read this email.

Starting point is 00:34:19 So we're gonna get orders. Oh no, I don't even know what this is about. This one's gonna be a nice surprise. Oh, and Robert Thomas asks in the chat, Adam, how are you feeling now about dropping Caleb Williams? I think a lot of people owe me some apologies for the heat I took for that one. It was a serendipitous, the best move I made. The dumbest move turned out to be the best move I made.

Starting point is 00:34:37 Oh, you're in fantasy. All right, we'll be right back after this on Fantasy Football Today. I feel like this is almost like the bizarro episode of Seinfeld, the Bizarro crew. Cause like Adam, not only did he get really worked up after getting trolled, a light troll got really worked up, but then he gave himself a little pat on the back with his Caleb Williams take his correct Caleb Williams takes.

Starting point is 00:34:57 This really feels like he's pulling a make. It was not a correct Caleb Williams take. It was a very like, Oh, I forgot to look at our super flex score. Are you going to beat me? Cause I might lose both of our chase leagues. I looked at that and that league, I have such a good team, but I started so poorly due to injuries that like, I can't bite back. Oh, you might.

Starting point is 00:35:18 We're tied. We are what's left. Cooper cup for you. Tyree kill for me. I'm screwed. Oh wow. I did make a huge comeback that I didn't even recognize last night. Who scored for me in last night's game, the Sunday game?

Starting point is 00:35:28 What was that? Amon Ra, St. Brown and I had Jared Goff. I might lose both of my Jamar Chase. What a pathetic week for me. Oh, that was where you have Jamar Chase. I forgot you might lose with Chase. That's unreal. It is unreal. And both of my Chase, please.

Starting point is 00:35:44 OK, anyway, oh my God, let's get back to is unreal in both of my chase. Please. Okay. Anyway, oh my god Let's get back to making dan look bad because I can't take this anymore Um email from joel and the joro crew I have a story historically been pretty split on whose side of the arguments I lean on between adam and dan But the toothpick in the sandwich is one I heavily agree with adam Part of the point of a huge sloppy sandwich is getting to scoop up the remnants that fall after you finish. Great point, Joel, great point.

Starting point is 00:36:08 Anyway, this week was a big week for Dan's friend Rachel on Survivor. She got probably the best food item in the auction, got an idol, people love her game, but didn't get her out. But her biggest win was that she got a big burger in the auction, and the first thing she did was take out the toothpick. Is Dan reeling from this public denouncing of his position?

Starting point is 00:36:31 Wow. Well, first of all, I got to go back to the Tate because I didn't even recognize that Rachel pulled the toothpick out of the burger and in turn kind of mess with the integrity of the sandwich. But remember, she's on Survivor. She hasn't eaten for however many days. If I was in her position, I would pull that pick out too and just go to town on that thing.

Starting point is 00:36:52 Like you are hungry, you're going nuts on that burger. So it's not like you worrying about sloppiness at that point, getting it all over the place. And I think one thing that people don't realize, it's not that I keep the stick in the burger because I don't wanna pick up those sloppily remnants at the end or whatever the emailer said, which is an interesting point is because I want to have every bite be every topping on the burger.

Starting point is 00:37:11 I don't want things falling apart, falling out, getting loose, getting my hands messy as well. I'm already a messy eater to begin with, as everyone could probably have predicted, but I will say this. I do like the shout out for Rachel, who was easily the player of the episode, but the one thing I would say that was missing this email was her best play. She used the shot in the dark in a way no contestant has ever used it before to gauge and read like a poker player. She used it to read if the votes were going to come in against her because she did have an idol as was mentioned in

Starting point is 00:37:37 the email and she could have then used that idol after the week. Jeff probes named her the player of the week and talked about how that move might kind of change the way that shot in the dark is played. So really awesome episode for weird coincidence too. I'm actually wearing my team Rachel shirt today. I did not know this was going to be the email that we were going to read at all. I'm going to test too. So just really exciting times for her. She's having such a great season. She's playing such a good game and I'm really excited for her. Adam is the one who said to pray for Dan Friday morning. I did say that because you played against Jamar Chase

Starting point is 00:38:08 in three of our office leagues. Oh yeah, I know I was playing. It was ridiculous. I'm gonna lose the other two, but like and my two home leagues I played against. Oh God, come on Tyree Kill. Tyree Kill apparently is going to try to play, but I guess they haven't ruled out surgery on his wrist.

Starting point is 00:38:21 So not good. All right, and that brings us, speaking of not good, let's go to our four big topics, the Jets struggles. A lot of people wanna know about the Jets struggles here. I don't know if anybody watched the last pass of the game that Aaron Rodgers threw, but he threw it behind Malachi Corley.

Starting point is 00:38:35 I think he wanted Corley to stop his route. It would have been a touchdown, and then he threw a fit on the field afterwards. He was really unhappy. Things are bad for the Jets. Jacob, is there any reason for optimism? And you know, before you answer, I just want everybody to think about one of our big topics last week was why does Kyler Murray suck so bad? Basically, we have the tendency to judge

Starting point is 00:38:56 everyone after their worst game. Rogers had scored like over 20 points, I think in three of his previous four games, maybe something like that. So this this this is rock bottom for the Jets but how do you feel about them right now, Jacob? Yeah, it was it's pretty rough just digging into this week's game. There's not much encouraging to take away. I think really the schedule is all that you're banking on but I wonder how much longer they're even going to be competitive. He wasn't pressured at a high rate. I'm curious what happened with the passing game. I know Arizona, I guess maybe we should give some credit to Arizona's defense because they have taken away some things this year. I highlighted them last week in a few different podcast spots in

Starting point is 00:39:37 reference to Jalen Waddle because they just really take away perimeter receiver. They really take away perimeter receiver. I was curious how this matchup would go. I was hoping we would see a ton of Bruce Hall in this spot. If they did take away Wilson and Adams, but it seems like Roger just kind of tried to force it to those guys and it didn't work. Yeah. They, they've been really good and the, every matchup going

Starting point is 00:40:01 forward pretty much is, is better. Uh, the last time the Cardinal, I'm just reading on Arizona Cardinals.com or AZ Cardinals better. The last time the Cardinals, I'm just reading on ArizonaCardinals.com or AZCardinals.com, the last time the Cardinals defense kept their opponents out of the end zone in three consecutive home games was 1926. So they're playing well.

Starting point is 00:40:15 I watched the tape, not like the way Dan does. You know, I didn't really break it down. Just kind of like a surface level look at it. I didn't really see a lot of open guys. I mean, I didn't see a lot of opportunities necessarily. Now, I talked about the Coralie play, that could have been a touchdown, but that was garbage time in the final

Starting point is 00:40:33 five minutes of the game. And then there was another play fourth and goal when he got strip sacked. Rogers, Tyler Conklin did come wide open in the end zone. He was about to throw it to him and the pressure had just gotten to Rogers. Again, they lost their left tackle, who hasn't really been playing well. And what I'm noticing with Rogers and with Cousins, I'd say, is that these guys who just

Starting point is 00:40:54 can't move, I'm not talking about guys who don't run, I'm talking about guys who really can't move. It doesn't take much pressure to get them down, you know, and things have to, the pocket has to be really good and then they could be lethal. But if there's any pressure, you know, they're in trouble. You're right. The pressure rate wasn't that high, but he still got sacked three times. So listen, I don't want to judge them based on their worst performance. Over the last four games since the Devante Adams trade, Adams is fourth among wide receivers and targets. Garrett Wilson is seventh. Adams is second in red zone targets and 10th in end zone targets.

Starting point is 00:41:28 Garrett Wilson is ninth in red zone targets and 10th in end zone targets. I think they're gonna be okay. I don't think they're gonna be great, but I think they're gonna be worth starting. I think I'd rather have both of them than Jawan Jennings. And I do like Jawan Jennings, but I would still take Wilson and Adams out of them than Joanne Jennings. And I do like Joanne Jennings, but I would still take Wilson and Adams ahead of them.

Starting point is 00:41:50 I mean, I can see that especially Wilson maybe, but I mean, I watched this tape and I was, uh, I don't know what you saw Jacob and I heard what Adam saw, but like the offensive design is just so stagnant with the Jets and there's still communication issues in the offense. Roger's Adams, the offensive line play just isn't where it was supposed to be with their off season additions. Even getting back for a Tucker this week, there's just no deep connection with Wilson and no, like what I expected between Adams or I'm sorry, Wilson and

Starting point is 00:42:13 Rogers was going to be similar to the Adams Rogers connection. They've had enough time to work together. Some back shoulder stuff like that. We saw early in the season a little bit, but no consistency there. So there's not much of the vertical threat in that. And Rogers is still really quick to come to the check down when he's like, cause he can work through a progression better than like most of these quarterbacks. So I still think.

Starting point is 00:42:31 Breeze hall is just going to have a lot of targets as we go forward in the season, he'll be a really good player for PPR leagues. Uh, but I, I don't know this offense looks, there's like what four or five of these like super stagnant offenses in the NFL, the Bears, the Jets, and just from a schematic standpoint, it's hard for me to see too much changing at this point of the season. Yeah, it's funny. I said earlier in the year, maybe a few weeks ago, that there were several offenses that I just felt like things should be easier for them because of their talent. And two teams, two of the teams that I mentioned, I know it looks dumb now, but at the time I think there were some concerns,

Starting point is 00:43:08 the Eagles and the Bengals and those two teams, just like they were not meeting their expectations and they have flipped the switch, especially the Eagles I'd say, and things are better. Can the jets do that? I don't, I don't see it at that level, but I think there'll be like a top 15 offense going forward. It probably, that's probably fair. They have so much talent there. Okay. So I do think that everyone needs to sort of just not judge teams at their lowest moment

Starting point is 00:43:38 and just take a look at the overall production, you know, in the last four games with Devante Adams Rogers has been solid for the most part. Adams has been okay. Garrett Wilson has really good. I'm actually a little worried about Breeze Hall because I still don't know who their goal line back is, but I think they had a third and one or a fourth and one yesterday and they gave it to Braylon Allen. And, uh, I think Braylon Allen's had like the only goal line carry in the last few weeks. And so I don't know. Yeah. Part of this is just Aaron Rodgers. Like he's just not the quarterback that he was at all. It seems like to me there were signs of it in his last year in green bag. People just didn't want to kind of recognize them from a processing standpoint. He just doesn't see the field the

Starting point is 00:44:15 same way he used to, in my opinion. Yep. Sorry. Last thing on this one of five for 14 yards on past attempts of 10 or more area yards in, in week 10. So that's horrible, but he had been at that since the trade with Adams. Like they had, there had been more downfield success. Is that had been a problem earlier in the season? They just had a horrible game. All right, next up, uh, this is from Johnson art or AJ Johnson art is Brian Thomas jr. Done as a starter. if Lawrence is out for the season. Jacobs, you've been so high on Brian Thomas Jr. horrible game for him yesterday. Two catches for 12 yards on three targets. They had the ball for 17 minutes and 41 seconds. I, I wonder if this is the most lopsided time of possession game of any, I'm serious of any game this

Starting point is 00:44:58 season. But, uh, are you, do you think Brian Thomas has done being a starter if Trevor Lawrence has done being a starter if Trevor Lawrence has done he pretty much the schedule is rough. He's not healthy. I watched all of his routes from week nine and he's like avoiding contact at all costs. He's dealing with a chest injury and physicality is a big part of his game. He's good enough that he can still just finesse guys and get open. But when you throw that into consideration, plus Mac Jones, plus offensive line problems, plus the schedule, it's like, man, it's really a risky bet any given week that he might come down with some big plays.

Starting point is 00:45:37 So yeah, he's like an extremely watered down version of Jameson Williams where it's like, you could start him because there's this potential for big plays. You know, he's a good player, but the framework is really, really unlikely to produce it. I think I wanted to point out on the jets. I did look it up over the past two weeks. Braylon Allen is the only running back with a carry inside of the 10 yard line. He only has a 12, um, inside of the 10 yard line though. Breeze Hall has been on the field for all of those plays, including the one that Breyland Allen got the touchdown on their Rimponi personnel with both backs in the backfield over the past month.

Starting point is 00:46:13 It's two to two, um, in terms of carries from inside the 10 and 80% snap rate for Breeze, 20% for Breyland Allen. So I actually took the time to watch this offense on tape, the Mac Jones, Jaguars offense, and by God, not only is Brian Thomas somebody that you can't start, I think he's a must bench moving forward. Um, there's just no faith that I'll have in this offense. They tried to do some condensed formation, some bunch looks early, give Matt Jones, a lot of these first reads, but looking at the game holistically, they only had one attempt, the entire game, Jaguars, that went 20 plus air yards.

Starting point is 00:46:45 And it was that final interception that you just heaved up to end the game. Everything else was 18 air yards or lower. As far as, you know, Brian Thomas goes, the first target of the game for him came with 102 left in the third quarter. And it was a miscommunication on an in breaker. His first catch was a short hitch route for five yards. Um, late throw at the end of the progression from Mac Jones, a lot of first read stuff from Jones, Gabe Davis got more targets, more first reads. Ingram will probably benefit the most from what I've seen. Um, but Brian Thomas to me is just someone you can't afford to start

Starting point is 00:47:17 right now in this offense. Some funny questions in the chat. Adam, What is the definition of a bus bench? Yeah, Brian Thomas fits it whatever it is Adam the type of guy to say Oh mama when the waitress serves him his turkey burger with no bun I can attest to that. I've gone out to a dinner with Adam one time at this unbelievable diner That's like top five and diners. They have crazy Instagram. They had like Something I've never seen on the menu deep-fried wraps, which I didn't try, but want to try, a wrap in a deep fryer. I can imagine that's unbelievable.

Starting point is 00:47:49 And Adam ordered like steamed broccoli, brown rice and chicken for dinner from this place. Like, is that not accurate? I ordered a chicken teriyaki bowl, which is incredible. I came with steamed rice, steamed broccoli, brown rice. No, it came with white rice and broccoli, yes. And you asked for no sauce on the chicken. I did not.

Starting point is 00:48:06 What are you talking about? I'm kidding. I'm kidding. By the way, I ordered that for dinner on Friday night. It's incredible. For sure it's good. Sit Brian Thomas. Kevin S says, who should be our trade deadline

Starting point is 00:48:17 targets at each position? Personally, I have a few leagues with a week 10 deadline. All right. Well, then sorry we missed that. But for people who have maybe a couple of weeks left, um, who should be some guys that we're buying low on right now? Who should we trade for? It doesn't have to be buying low, but good, good rest of season value. I'd buy high on my start every week,

Starting point is 00:48:37 league winner, Joanne Jennings, honestly. That's top of my list. Fine. I think at the end of the day, I'm sorry. at the end of the day, I don't think we disagree much on Joanne Jennings, just the semantics of it. Yeah. Depot Samuel, you said? Yeah, I think he'd be like a by low. I think he has really high upside.

Starting point is 00:48:55 We'll see what the role turns into how it evolves. I think against Tampa Bay made a little more sense to like kind of attack down the field against those corners. But yeah, some big shootouts coming. I think we could see some huge depot games. I'm probably looking at like offenses that are clicking right now. First far as players I want to buy, I think somebody in the chat, shout out Brian Martinez gave a good name T Higgins right now.

Starting point is 00:49:17 You can probably get him pretty cheap and injured a lot. Um, if he can get healthy for a stretch, specifically the fantasy playoffs, he can probably win you your league. That offense is clicking. As far as other offenses that are clicking, I stand by the Jameson Williams. I'll buy on him. But if not, maybe you buy on Jameer Gibbs because of what we

Starting point is 00:49:36 talked about earlier with his role kind of expanding a little bit in that offense early downs. And they're using him on interior runs as well there, which they hadn't at some points this season. So I like that interior runs as well there, which they hadn't at some points this season. So I like that for him as well. Mike Evans, 3.15 yards per route run over the past three years with Chris Godman off the field.

Starting point is 00:49:52 That's second to only Tyree Kill. I think when he comes back, he's got a schedule that he could smash in. We'll see. It's much of really bad teams like the Giants are one of them where I don't know if Tampa will need to throw a lot, but Tampa Bay just is throw a lot either way I think. Yeah they have the Panthers twice and I thought about that because they do have a bunch of teams that they could crush but I would say Baker Mayfield is a really good buy low because his schedule is so good. What do you think about Jaden Reed? I feel like Green Bay's offense could finally find some

Starting point is 00:50:22 cohesion here coming out of the buy and I think people have soured on Reid a little bit because he hasn't had huge fantasy games. So they've got a bunch of games that could be shootouts too. I like that call. He is one of the wide receivers that have in the fantasy playoffs weeks 15, 16, 17, multiple matchups. He has three matchups in fact against bottom 10 defenses against wide receivers. Seattle's 25th, Saints are 23rd, Minnesota's 30th. So Jayden Reed has a great schedule. And then just before

Starting point is 00:50:50 that he has Detroit. Now, sorry, his next three games, Chicago, San Francisco, at Chicago, home against San Francisco. Again, I don't think Miami is that good, but that's three weeks from now, but at Chicago home against San Francisco, those aren't necessarily great matchups, but it gets really good for Jayden Reed beginning in week 13, I'd say. Yeah, sorry, I'm just laughing at Brian's comment. I'm getting the teriyaki sauce on the side so they don't ruin it by putting too much on.

Starting point is 00:51:15 I think people have a misconception about the way I eat. I do not think they have a misconception. As someone who's eaten with you multiple times, I do not think so. How many times have you eaten with me? The Giants tailgate that you claimed I ditched you at. What did I eat? I ate the steak that they gave me.

Starting point is 00:51:30 No, I think you took all the bread off of everything and like, No, I didn't. Yes, you did. You're one of those. You are one of those. You're a healthy eater. It's something to be proud of, dude. You're a healthy eater.

Starting point is 00:51:40 I had two peanut butter cups. I've gone now. The fact that you could go to that Mount Kisco diner and see a menu that looks like that and say, and I quote, this is a true quote, and I know you will agree with this Adam, because I know you're not a liar. You said, wow, great order. I'm too scared to order that.

Starting point is 00:51:56 Did you not say that? Yeah, Dan, like, I'm 40. Scared of what? I can't, you ordered a chicken parm sub with vodka sauce and fried ravioli in the cell. I can't guess what I was fine the next day. Nothing. I don't know what it's like to have kids. I eat their leftover chicken nuggets and french fries and mac and cheese. It's sitting there on the table. You can't get like being a dad is a guaranteed 10 pound

Starting point is 00:52:23 gain. You have to cut out some. Hey, 146 pounds and you've never gone over that. I haven't weighed myself in at least a month because I'm scared of what the scale is gonna say. Scared of what? It's gonna be in the 150s and that's just horrible for me, horrible. You just live life like this

Starting point is 00:52:38 where you're scared of a certain number as weight and there's no point to it. Like, what do you need to keep your weight down for at this point? I just actually, you know what? You probably should because that when we, when we play next year, kind of you've got to get more than two games out of 12. I will. Oh, Oh, believe me. I will. I'll get 12. Okay. You will never beat me in that sport. No other players with good schedules. I'm going to go over this on Wednesday's show, but just a few that I'll highlight Calvin Ridley and we'll have us for what it's worth.

Starting point is 00:53:09 But and Tajay Spears, if you can just throw him in. I mean, Calvin Ridley, I can't imagine there's a wide receiver with a better schedule than Ridley unless it's Malik neighbors. Malik neighbors has a really good schedule coming up. And both of them have quarterbacks who can't get them to the ball. Well, I don't know if that's true anymore for Ridley, but, um, Cortland Sutton is another guy. Cortland Sutton has a pretty good schedule.

Starting point is 00:53:32 Um, it's not that's true for Ridley. Well, he's had three big games in a row. One of them was only in one of them. Yeah. I mean, I have some concern. It's again, a 16 yard a dot. That's not super sustainable, but Minnesota, Houston, Washington, Jacksonville,

Starting point is 00:53:48 Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, coming up for Calvin Ridley, Jacoby Myers. It's not great in the immediate future, but he has a good schedule in the playoffs. George Pickens, yeah. The Dolphins wide receivers have a pretty good schedule. But I would say Ridley and Sutton are probably set up for pretty solid finishes. Do we have any running backs? I would throw Isaiah P and Sutton are probably set up for pretty solid finishes.

Starting point is 00:54:05 Do we have any running backs? I would throw Isaiah Pacheco's name out there. Kareem Hunt. I feel like might be on his last legs. I do have running backs, but Pacheco, I would be so pumped about Pacheco, but then I feel like I'm overlooking the fact that he's coming off a broken leg. Yeah. And the fact that they probably want to keep him, work him in slowly for the leg. Yeah. You know, and the fact that like, they probably want to keep him, they

Starting point is 00:54:25 won't work him in slowly for the playoffs. Yeah. I mean, I think Kareem hunt, if people think he's like doing a good job, then I think he's probably the most overrated running back in football. But if you get 20 carries a game or in case, in this case, get six catches, then you're going to be good every week. So he's not to me, a big threat to Pacheco. If Pacheco work himself, I do have some concerns about him being himself coming off a broken leg. But he didn't have surgery or anything. It wasn't like Tony Pollard.

Starting point is 00:54:50 It wasn't like, did he have surgery? He didn't have surgery, did he? I mean, I feel like surgery would have been out for the year. Did he? That's a pretty short recovery for surgery. I'm not positive, but I thought he had had surgery. All right, well, we should look into that. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:55:03 James Connor has phenomenal playoff schedule. One guy who doesn't like one guy who kind of does on paper, but if you think about it, I don't know that he did have surgery, by the way. All right. Ramondre Stevenson. So the bike he gets a few teams, a couple teams that are poorly ranked against running backs. But if you think about Ramon Dr Stevenson after his week 14 by, which is not great, Arizona at Arizona at Buffalo and the chargers in the

Starting point is 00:55:31 fantasy playoffs. And the thing with him is like, he's very game script dependent. If they're falling behind, that's pretty bad for Stevenson. However, he is now more or less their third down back. So it could be okay. But I want Stevenson in a close competitive game at Arizona, at Buffalo, home against the Chargers. I don't love that playoff schedule for Mondrae Stevenson. I will say those are all games where the running backs will likely get targeted just based on matchup. I don't know if it'll happen.

Starting point is 00:55:57 Like Stevenson only got one target this week, but like you said, the role is there. He's running more routes. Yeah. All right, that's about all I got. And I think, I think you could buy high and tire and Tracy, man, especially like maybe people are a little panicky about the fumble or whatever. He's the offense and the matchup set up really well for him.

Starting point is 00:56:17 I put him a running back 12 rest of season and people couldn't believe it. And I think that's kind of where we're at is like, people aren't quite ready to react to how high the potential really is for him. If I like had Alvin Camara, I would try to flip him for Tracy and a bunch and see if you could do that. Okay, everybody. Who is the stud wide receiver? The stud wide receiver, the real must start wide receiver that Adam thinks that you should maybe think about is very, very strong advice, maybe consider starting to think about selling high on, I'll tell you on Wednesday on Fantasy Football today, but for now, let's finish off with Bon Mee's topic,

Starting point is 00:56:53 never ever draft a tight end before the seventh round. This year proves it. Does it prove it, Dan? Yeah, of course it proves it. Look, as much as it's proven it, I still feel like I'll fall into this trap every year because I do seemingly fall into this trap every year. I get excited about talent. I get excited, excited about potential role.

Starting point is 00:57:13 Uh, like I was with the tight ends this year, uh, Dalton Gingade. Good example of that. Kyle Pitts and other example of that. Um, I mean, I guess Trey McBride has somewhat worked out, but the problem with McBride is what I out, but the problem with McBride is what I thought would be the problem with him. He doesn't score touchdowns and doesn't get looks in the red zone. So I mean, he was wide open last week, so it's not on him.

Starting point is 00:57:35 But point is like he's limited in some ways by the touchdown. So I don't know. I don't know when this will happen. I mean, NFL is moving in a direction schematically that it should happen. The teams are playing too high more than they ever have. The seam is probably an area they should go with the ball, but quarterbacks don't like to go up the scene with the football because they can get their tight ends hurt and they can get the receivers hurt.

Starting point is 00:57:57 And it requires timing, immaculate timing and velocity and ball placement that a lot of them don't really have confidence in themselves to throw. So, I don't know. I don't know if it'll ever happen. I feel like next year I got to go back to my old strategy, which used to be the punt tight end. I was willing to do that for so long, Adam and Jacob, until Kelsey came along. And I convinced myself that it gives you such a weekly advantage that I want him in every league, and I would buy him in every auction.

Starting point is 00:58:21 And now we're at the point where I just want to go back to what I used to do. Kelsey's killing it now though. I'd be thrilled to have Kelsey. And now we're at the point where I just want to go back to what I used to do. I was just killing it now though. I would be thrilled to have Kelsey. Yeah, for sure. That's it. No, I'm Kittle. Trey McBride, Trey McBride's a monster. Kittle for sure.

Starting point is 00:58:32 He doesn't score Trey McBride. Yeah, I mean that is annoying, but I did want to point out that that's an Arizona thing. The Karnos are 31st in red zone pass attempts. That's right. I knew that was part of what I didn't like about his profile though. But it's not him. I mean, he has a 27% target share. He's a big, big monster. Like

Starting point is 00:58:48 he could definitely be scoring touchdowns. I, so I don't think this year has proven anything about tight end. This is a pretty normal year for tight ends. Here are over the last five years, the amount of tight ends who have averaged 12 or more PPR fantasy points per game, uh, four, six, four, seven, four. So we're on the low end, but it's not a great year for tight ends, but your top 12 tight ends right now are Kittle, Bowers, Kelsey, Otten, McBride, Pitz, Kraft, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, Mike Kosicki,

Starting point is 00:59:18 Dalton Kincaid, Zach Ertz. But the top five are Kittle, Bowers, Kelsey, Otten, McBride. So I don't come to craft. I mean, two of those guys, you could get off the waiver wire. No, then then then craft, but like pits and craft, like craft hasn't really been that good. Right.

Starting point is 00:59:33 So neither has fits. No. So if we just look at about the top five guys, no one is, I think that's the point though, it's like, why are we investing in a position where there's not much of a weekly advantage and they're not scoring? I would say that there is a pretty big weekly advantage if you have Kittle, Bowers or Kelsey. No, because they're just barely eclipsing this 12 point whatever. I didn't say that. That's not true. George Kittle is at 17.4 fantasy points per game

Starting point is 00:59:56 in PPR. George Kittle. Yeah, with Brandon Iuke injured. All right. Yeah. I mean, obviously that's- And then Kelsey, it's with Rashid Rice and Hollywood Brown injured. So a lot of these are circumstantial. Kate Otton. Yeah. Kate Otton only because of the injuries. A lot of these are circumstantial. This year has solidified to me more than ever. And I said, I hammered this home. I hope I hammered this home to people. My tight end strategy is very, very different in a two wide receiver league versus a three wide

Starting point is 01:00:21 receiver league. I absolutely want to invest in it in a two receiver league. And it is not much of a priority for me in a three receiver league. Now I did want to get a top eight tight end. I said that over and over again. But that was more, more like the round six, seven, even eight, nine guy. Cause I would be waiting for Jake Ferguson. But it is so much more important. Right now the trouble we're having filling out our three receiver league lineups. Yeah. I think it's gonna go results driven with your takeaways on this year.

Starting point is 01:00:52 The only takeaways like just draft running backs with five years for six picks, because that's just how the year has played out. Like, I don't know if there's much to take away from it. I agree with that. Yeah, but like it's always gonna be a little bit difficult to find a good consistent third receiver and then a flex in a PPR league. So I would invest more in that on draft day if I were in a three receiver league, but you, you should, you should try to have a good tight

Starting point is 01:01:12 end. You should always have a good tight end, but you can get by streaming. But I think that like in a two receiver league, I do think it's super important to have a good tight end. It's just, you guys probably don't play in two receiver leagues. I play in a couple and tight end is, is much, just much more valuable. Uh, but I, yeah, I don't really agree with the take of never drafting a tight end before the seventh round. That's pretty late. You know? Um, all right. That's it for today's show. Listen, uh, happy veterans day everybody. And thank you all. For those of you who have served, thank you all for serving. Rob Thomas is in our chat right now. He's our Facebook moderator. He does a lot on social. So he's a veteran. I want to thank him and everybody for everything you've given us. You're freaking awesome. And we couldn't can't thank

Starting point is 01:01:52 you enough. I hope you had a great, uh, hope you enjoyed beyond the box score today. And we are hashing out the definitions of must start and must bench and all that. And I mean, I don't even know how George Kittle could be good anymore with the jaw, jettings. It must start status, but you know, um, wait, did I say the stat on George Kittle that he is, I don't think I did. He has the second biggest gap. There's if this everything held as it is today, the gap between Kittle and Bowers is the second biggest gap per game in 19 seasons. Wow. Between tight end one and tight end two.

Starting point is 01:02:28 Okay. And I thought last year was, no last year there was no gap, sorry. No, that is great. I raised you though, cause you thought Kelsey was giving you that weekly advantage in all those other Kelsey years, but apparently that wasn't the case. He was pretty close.

Starting point is 01:02:40 He's having the best non Travis Kelsey season since Jordan Reed in 2015. But it's barely over some other guys, but that's how good Kittle's been. Yeah. Seven touchdowns in eight games. Yeah. Yeah. So it's seven touchdowns were the rings second to Titan last year over the course of the full season. I have Kittle coincidentally. I'm nine and one says Griffin. Okay. That is it. That is it. On this San Francisco note, like we're like, how can Kittle still be this good with the other guys

Starting point is 01:03:08 if they're that good? I think they'll lead the NFL in points from this point on. Like, Purdy's playing, Purdy's playing amazing. We finally have CMC back, like, Adam is set up really well. I love them, I'm gonna put them second. I'm gonna put them second behind the Ravens. I just think they're gonna be in shootouts like almost every single game. Maybe not, maybe the defense is good them second behind the Ravens. I just think they're going to be in shootouts,

Starting point is 01:03:25 like almost every single game. Maybe not. Maybe the defense is good enough that they won't be, but I think they're going to see a lot of big. All right. It's a bet. It is a bet. What does the loser have to do? That's easy.

Starting point is 01:03:37 That's easy money. Ravens play the Steelers twice. They play the Eagles. They play the Chargers. They play the Texans. They'll score 30 against all of them, man. Their defense stinks. Let's do it.

Starting point is 01:03:46 All right. What are you guys betting? I'm the arbiter of this bet. I don't know. Loser has to do an impression of the other person. Easy. That's too easy. That's way too easy.

Starting point is 01:03:57 Let's see. That's too easy for the guy who never does the Jacob Gives impression. He always says he's gonna do it. I did it once and it wasn't great. I worked on it because I thought you weren't gonna be on today's show. I will bring it out next week.

Starting point is 01:04:07 I don't have thick enough skin to hear someone do an impression of me. I'm just telling you that right now. I could not deal with that. All right, we'll figure it out, but it's a bet. 49ers versus Ravens, rest of season, points per game. In case they're, yeah, I think the Ravens still have their buy.

Starting point is 01:04:20 Baltimore. Offensive points per game, not including. Yeah, offensive points per game. For Dan, for Jacob, I'm Adam, for Shave the Tool. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fancy for Fuckin'.

Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Jets Outlook, Trade Targets, TE Overview and More (11/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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