Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Kyren Williams, Rookie Contributors, DO NOT DRAFT List (08/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 21, 2024

Want to be in our next mock draft and have a shot at being on air? Check out our St. Jude Draft-a-Thon Store here: https://tiltify.com/@fftfundraising/fantasy-football-today-draftathon-2024 Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We're combining tape review, advanced stats, recent trends and more Fantasy analysis to give you a different perspective on things and get you ready for your drafts! We start with some Twitter polls (2:15) and our thoughts on Saquon Barkley vs. Kyren Williams, the best Bills wide receiver (7:10) and the best value among the Texans WRs (10:40). We talk a lot about Kyren with a lot of pros and cons ... News and notes (16:00), how to join the Podcast League (22:00), Malik Nabers outlook (23:30) and a bit more on Kyren (26:40) ... We talk extensively about which rookies will contribute (28:30) and then Jacob gives his Rookie Roundup (38:50)! Can Brian Thomas and/or Keon Coleman break out? Should you be keeping an eye on Ben Sinnott? Then we finish the show with players we don't draft (48:30) with disagreements on Zamir White, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon and several more ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to a special edition of Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. It is beyond the box score.

Advanced stats from simple people. Adam Azer, Jacob Gibbs, and Dan Schneier. And guys, look at this comment. Let's see. I love this time of year. Isn't this a great time of year? I really thought that comment was going to be a little more specific to us and this show, Beyond the Box score, but good job there, Adam.

It is the best time of year. It's that time of year where we're all doing our drafts or making our calls or making our bold decisions. And it's that time of year where I have to squint to see Jacob apparently because he's zoomed all the way out. Yeah. We should have made him zoom in. I see your stove in the back there.

Quite have time to get the whole. Can I ask you a question? Yeah. So you've been getting you've been very very active on twitter probably at this point uh as called out by a lot of people on twitter the best follow on fantasy twitter i would think you're up there in the elite tier but there is something that i want to i have a one bone to pick with you about your uh twitter account it's not even a bone it's just a curiosity what the hell is going on in that background picture of your Twitter profile?

Is that like a joke? Like you're pushing your friend off a cliff? Like what is that picture? I'm not familiar with this. Go take a look at him. Me and my brother at Canyonlands in Utah. We're just looking out of the Canyon. I'm not pushing him off or anything. It does look like you're about to kill him yeah that is all right jacob's a great follow on twitter at j.a gibbs underscore 23 dan is a fine actually dan is a pretty guy i can't criticize him he's a very good follow on twitter at dan schneier nfl i believe and i am at adam a's oh there it's displayed right there at dan schneier nfl. I am at Adam Azer. Speaking of Twitter, we're going to do some Twitter polls to start the show. I want to talk about Kyron Williams today.

And I do think I changed my mind on this one. Who do you like, Saquon Barkley or Kyron Williams? That was my first Twitter poll. Let's take a look at the updated results. Barkley, 62%. Kyron, 38%. Wrong. Wrong. Who do you guys like? Jacob%. Kyron, 38%. Wrong. Who do you guys like?

Jacob likes Kyron. I'm going to let Jacob start this because me and Jacob have discussed this pretty much throughout the entire offseason, this Barkley value as we head into 2024. So I'll let him make his case first and then I'll rebut if there is a rebuttal. I see more touchdown upside with Kyron Williams. i see more touchdown upside with karen williams i see more reception

upside with karen williams he um was second in points per game last year that was inflated a little bit by a touchdowns he scored i think 15 touchdowns or 12 games or 12 and 9 something like that that'll probably come down but my guess is he's probably going to play a pretty similar role to what he did last year and with barkley yeah i it's mostly that I'm just way down on Barkley I haven't ranked like 42nd or something and that's just because he doesn't project well he doesn't Jalen Hurts doesn't throw to running backs Kellen Moore's offenses typically haven't thrown to running backs and honestly Saquon isn't the receiving back that a lot of people think. Since his rookie season, at least, he has not been. So yeah, between that and then obviously the touchdown vulturing that goes on in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts,

he just doesn't project very well. I like that case you make, Jacob, and I think it's had me adjust my rankings. So for Barkley, originally I was high on him for two reasons. One, I think that if you look at the amount the amount of carries the eagles had inside the five for running backs it's actually pretty high just they didn't cash in on those carries and it got down to the one a lot and jalen hurts took over there my thought process was well saquon barkley is a much better inside runner and much better red zone runner and he'll especially behind this offensive line he never really had an opportunity behind the giants offense line so he'll cash especially behind this offensive line, he never really had an opportunity behind the Giants offensive line. So he'll cash in on those.

So that was my thought. And you'll get a season similar to what we project for Derek Henry. But even in that sense, he's still going a little too high because we're not that comfortable drafting Derek Henry where we're drafting Saquon Barkley. And the explosive runs have just gone down crazy for Saquon Barkley in his career. He had nine runs of 40 plus in his rookie year season, 2018. He had two of those runs in the last two seasons combined. And you could blame it on the offensive line all you want, but the Giants' own line was not good in 2018 either.

So if he's not an explosive player, he's not catching passes, it really becomes that Henry profile. You have to lean on a lot of touchdowns. And then you still do have the option of Hurts stealing them. But on the flip side, Kyron Williams for me, that injury history is just unbelievable. Now, I think if he's on the field, you'll be right about this, Jacob, because they're not going to be able to stop what the Rams are doing. They're running due up front and they signed Jonah Jackson, who's a perfect fit to run that system. And they're

running it really well. And it works because every single team has to respect what Matthew Stafford can do with his arm and they have to play off the ball with their corners and their safeties. So that will still be there. It'll be just as effective. The question is, can he stay on the field? And that's where I get a little bit more scared looking at his injury history, the type of back that he is Kyron Williams. Um, yes, he's still the best in past practice, but he will be on the field. It just kind of comes down to, can he stay healthy? I have, I'm lower on both of these players. They're not players I draft in the range they go. I'll take over receiver over them.

Or, you know, honestly, I consider taking Pacheco over both of them. I really high on Isaiah Pacheco. So I guess if I had to give the nod, I'll give a slight nod to Kyron, but it's not, I don't feel great about either. All right.

This is going to be one of our big topics. I was going to get to it a little bit later, but I do have a lot to say about Kyron Williams as well and why I'm making the switch to Saquon Barkley over Kyron Williams. The injuries, yeah, they do jump out.

Look, he had a preseason injury, and he missed four games last year, I believe, five games. But then also, I think it was four games, then he maybe sat at Week 18. He got hurt in the playoffs. He came out of the playoff game early. So there's that. But the thing that I think really swayed me is that he had six carries last year.

Kyron Williams had six carries of more than 20 yards. All six of them were against three of the worst run defenses in football. Four of them came against Arizona. He had one carry of more than 31 yards. He's just not an explosive player. So he's going to need a lot of volume, I think. And as inefficient as Barkley was last year, he actually did have four or five carries of 30 or more yards and two catches. I think he'll have more big plays. Kyron's more of like a bruiser. But anyway, I'll expand on it. We can talk about him a little bit more later

because I think for a guy who averaged 20 fantasy points per game or even more than that last year in full PPR, for him to be going in the middle of the second round, it's like incredible. I mean, he's RB2 last year per game and now he's like RB9 or 10 in ADP. Next

Twitter poll. Who do you like better? Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman? This one started close and has become a bit of a blowout here, even bigger, about the same margin as the Barkley-Kyron poll. Who do you guys like better, Shakir or Coleman? Just real quick here. I like Shakir better as a player and a talent. For fantasy. I think you got to bet on Coleman, just given the role that he's been playing in the preseason. He's out there like every single snap with the starters. I don't know if it's going to work because they're just asking him to be the

pure X receiver and he's struggled to create separation. That's something that seems to be carrying over looking in his preseason film from college as well. So yeah, I, I worry about him a little bit, but the role looks awesome where Shakira is kind of rotating in anytime that they've moved on Kincaid to the slot. Shakira has come off the field. I like betting on both of these players. So I'll start by saying that with the injury to Curtis Samuel turf toe, I don't know the extent of that, but it's not something I'm thrilled about for a receiver to get turf toe. It boosts up Shakira for me, for sure,

from a possession standpoint, from reception standpoint, but I'll buy him at his cost and I'll buy Coleman at his cost too. And Coleman has more upside. I heard Josh Allen talking about Keon Coleman the other day, and he said he's the best body control of any wide receivers ever played with. And this shouldn't surprise anyone. He was a basketball player at Michigan state, his ability to go up and change his body in the air and adjust the football is really impressive. They have to figure out a way to use it. And he has to figure out a way to get on the same page with Coleman. But if they get to that point, there could be situations where there's just these one-on-one

matchups on the outside and you don't have safety help over the top for Coleman. Cause there's other things to worry about in this offense. And Alan just says, I got the arm to put it out there. I'm just going to throw it up into a spot that he can adjust and catch the football. And I think that will happen at some point, maybe more down the line. So if I have to make one bet, it's Coleman, but I like both at cost. Coleman could have double-digit touchdowns. That wouldn't surprise me at all. And not even have that many targets outside of that.

But they've really made an emphasis to get him the ball in the red zone during the preseason. Yeah, but let's say they have pretty much the same cost. And you had to only pick one. Would you take Shakir or Coleman? Coleman. Coleman for the upside. But I also just don't't this is just one of the examples i don't understand the cost like why are these bills receivers not being bought at all in fantasy you can get them all so late but we're also assuming that the bills are going to still be one of the better

passing offenses josh allen yeah i don't know i don't know that anything goes for the chiefs or these price makes no sense there's a lot of prices that don't make sense. But Kelsey and Kelsey is a third round pick. And Rishi Rice is moving up to like these are called Kincaid is a fifth round pick. I said Rishi Rice should have been a second round pick this entire year and our late second round pick. And now he's finally moving up. Still not where as high as he should be. All right. Anyway, Shakira wins the Twitter poll, by the way. Sixty four percent. Sixty three percent. I it is now, Shakir over Keon Coleman. And I do see them going pretty similarly in drafts.

Also, I just wonder, Keon Coleman playing all the time and Khalil Shakir not playing all the time. It is preseason. Is that even a good thing for Keon Coleman? Like, he stays out there when the starters come off the field. I was referencing when the starters are on the field only.

Okay, but like but shakir i don't know but josh allen's barely played right so there's that but fair enough um all right but yeah but in the past adam i know what you're saying but in the past you've seen these guys like maybe like a pair seller that's those types of guys like really working slow like they'll just work only with the second and 13 the fact that these guys like him and btj are working already with the first team i think is a really good sign I got two minutes for this last one here. All right, we got to be quick. Who's your favorite value among the Texans receivers? Is it Nico Collins in round three, Stefan Diggs in round five or Tank Dell in round six? 64% of the respondents say Tank Dell in

round six. I think this is a layup,ico collins in round three stefan digs around five tank down around six jacob who's your favorite texans value there it's nico for me i have nico collins ranked 13th overall um if you just search yeah if you just search my twitter name and nico collins you will have enough reading material for like your next trip to the toilet at least um tank tank dell though, I think I want to shout out as well because I think he's such a problem for defenses. And with Nico and Stefan Diggs to deal with, he's not going to be prioritized very much by defenses, at least not in the way that he deserves to be,

because, man, he's so, so good. And it would not surprise me, even though he's coming off the field in two receiver stats, it wouldn't surprise me if he has double digit touchdowns just because he has the easiest matchup so often. And CJ Stroud knows how good he is. I love to hear a little joke from Jacob Gibbs. It's a new Gibbs, new year, new Gibbs getting jokes in though. I will make the audience well aware that be careful. There's a lot of Nico Collins content out there from Jacob Gibbs, and you don't want to spend too much time on the toilet because that's how hemorrhoids happen.

Oh my God. My favorite value. Yeah, that may be better for mailbag type of content, but my favorite value here is Tank Dell. I think he's the best separator on the team, and I really like Nico Collins as well, but Tank Dell is just a different level. Proved he can win at all three levels in college at Houston. Proved he can win at all three levels in the NFL last year looked unbelievable on the long catch he had against the giants in the preseason game, just unstoppable. And like Jacob said, we'll likely get the best matchups. Now, my biggest concern though, with calling tank Dell here is something we've seen in the preseason. Bobby Sloic is not

running that much 11 personnel. Bobby Sloic didn't run a lot of 11 personnel last year. Same issues happening with Shane Waldron in Chicago. And it's a big issue because if they're going to run more 12 than most of these teams, and that means two tight ends in the field, and that's a style offense they run or 21 with a fullback on the field. It's not good for someone in the mix. And my guess is the veteran Stefan Diggs is not going to be okay coming off the field in two wide receiver sets. And that's not going to happen. So that will be Tank Dell.

So I'm a little nervous calling Tank Dell for that reason. But this was a team, and by the way, 11 personnel is three receivers, one running back, one tight end, three receivers. So that's what we like to see. We like to see a lot of 11 personnel. And teams are in 11 personnel more often than not. I think even like the lowest, right? You know, you're talking like 60% is pretty low, 11 personnel more often than not. I think even like the lowest, right. You know, you're talking like 60% is pretty low 11 personnel, but the Texans were a team that kind of rotated their wide receivers.

They didn't have guys playing 95% of the snaps. You can correct me if I'm wrong there, but tank Dell wins that poll with a round six value. Stefan digs was last there. And let's see tank Dell 64%. And then digs and Collins, actually pretty even. Collins, round three. Diggs, round five. Okay. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code FANTASY. You got to start making some bets, all right? Week one is almost

here. You're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM with the code FANTASY. You download the BetMGM app. You sign up. Again, that bonus code is FANTASY. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game, and you're going to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code FANTASY when you sign up on BetMGM. Quick break on Beyond the Box score. We'll be right back. you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, we're going to go through some news and I don't even know if we need to talk about this here, but just to give you some updates, Jerry Jones said he's had promising talks with

CeeDee Lamb. The 49ers met with Brandon Ayuk. That's good stuff. Tyreek Hill, though, is not practicing today. He has a hand or a thumb injury. Jalen Waddell also remains out. Not changing anything in terms of how I'm drafting those guys. Are you? Hill and Waddell. This is brand new information really on Hill.

Waddell's been a lingering thing. Mm-mm. Okay. No. Jameer Gibbs is trending in the right direction to play in week one. I wonder how much work he'll get in week one, but it looks like Jameer Gibbs,

I think we did a draft last night, he went 12th or something like that. Maybe a little early for me. I don't know. What do you guys think? As Jacob will see when he dives into my rankings that I sent him, and this was even before the quote-unquote injury

that's worth nothing, I was much lower than consensus on Jameer Gibbs this entire off season. I don't, I've never really quite understood his high ranking. I feel like you're just basically buying Devin HN at a larger, at a much larger cost. Um, and we get excited by the flash that Jameer Gibbs put on film last year. He's one of the most exciting players in the NFL, but that doesn't mean David Montgomery is not going to be on this roster and still have a role. So I just don't quite understand buying for putting first round value on somebody who's in a timeshare at running back. His offense is better than a chance and potentially better than any offense in the NFL. The offensive environment in Detroit

just prints fantasy points. I think that if you had to bet on any team to create the most plays, um, the equation would add up for Detroit. You think there's a huge jump between the Detroit and Miami offense this year? I think so. The offensive line is much better. I think Miami might be due for a little bit of regression. So yeah, that's why I think it makes some sense with Gibbs and just with the Detroit guys in general. The other thing is there's contingent upside with Gibbs that exists,

like where if I'm on our St. Brown or anybody like that gets hurt, particularly him. Oh, Montgomery. What if Montgomery gets, and we're talking about that for sure. And fantasy,

if Montgomery gets hurt, I think Vaki would actually play the preseason guy. I don't know if you've watched any of him, if Montgomery got hurt, but if Montgomery gets hurt, then it's more red zone opportunities and everything for Gibbs. And then if St. Brown gets hurt, then it's probably more targets for Gibbs. I think Jameer Gibbs has the potential to push his targets

into really crazy range if he's a bigger part of the offense, which right now they've got so many weapons that he doesn't have to be. So, yeah, I'm not taking him 12th, but in some leagues, I think you can justify it if you're playing in a casual home league or something like that where you might be able to get Nico Collins, Jalen Waddle,

those type of guys in the third and fourth round, then yeah, go for it. I think that makes sense. Are you taking Jameer Gibbs ahead of Kyron Williams, Saquon Barkley? Definitely ahead of Saquon.

Him and Kyron are neck and neck for me. I would because I'm not high on eitherdard's players, but an example is I would take Jonathan Taylor for sure over Gibbs. Okay. Sam Laporta has a hamstring injury. Again, I don't think it's anything that's affecting draft stock. Pittsburgh center Nate Herbig is out for the season. Rookie Zach Frazier is going to start at center for the

Steelers. I know their offensive line looks terrible now. They're going to hopefully get their rookie left tackle or right tackle. I forget where they're going to play him. Before week one, he's been out. Brock Bowers has a sore foot. I think we've got to talk maybe tomorrow about Anthony Richardson. He may be struggling a little bit in camp.

A little bit. Ups and downs. But I think you can expect that as a passer from Anthony Richardson. He won't have tight end Jelani Woods. Colts tight end Jelani Woods is having toe surgery and Saints tight end Jawan Johnson is off the pop list. Dan guess what I played this morning. Don't tell me tennis again.

Now I played guess who this morning which was really fun. You had played a sick set of tennis in the last like 32 hours. Okay let me just be clear about something yesterday. You've presented yourself false way to the listeners. Not all who listen to this. I'll talk about something. I played yesterday. I played tennis. You've presented yourself in a false way to the listeners. Not all who listen to this. I'll talk about some more on this Friday.

You're so wrong about this. I think people are under the impression that you just never played tennis and you're just picking up a racket for the first time. I think that was you. I never, ever, ever made that. Meanwhile, Adam apparently got lessons as a kid. He's been playing constant hours of tennis this summer. Yep.

And I'm granting him home court advantage for our match, among other things. I have a cracked tennis racket. I looked at my racket for the first time in months. It is a 25-year, or no, 20-year-old racket. I had it at 15 years old in high school. It is cracked now. I don't know how that happened, but I am debating using a demo racket for our big match because I don't know what's worse. And I'll let the listeners decide.

And I'll put this out on Twitter. Eventually I'll show the crack racket. I'll let them decide what's a better call for me. Use a demo racket or a cracked racket that I know. And that I'm used to. That's the question with 20 year old, old, old technology. Come on, obviously a demo. You should get it. I don't know. You should get a demo racket, but a demo is You should get a demo racket. I don't know. You should get a demo racket. But a demo is going to be a different racket. I don't know if I'm going to have the right feel for it. Right? Look at this.

I mean, look, pre-excuses, Dan looking for a way out. I'm not looking for a way out, Robert Chavez. I will still win this match. Despite giving him home court advantage, despite using a cracked 20-year-old racket, despite Adam playing 32 sets in the last two days or whatever it is. I will beat him and I will embarrass him and I will show no mercy. That's the last part because of everything

that he said and done. I will make sure that if things aren't going the way that he wants, like if it is bad and it's like three Oh four Oh me five Oh me, I won't give him a game. I will not be nice and just punt a game. It'll be six Oh six. So if I want it to be six Oh six Oh, and that's what I'm looking forward to. Okay. So here's what you can do. You want to get in on this tennis match here. You can go to tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024. Scroll down and click on the auction house. And then you're going to see these listings for the match, Team Schneier and Team Azor. We've already raised at least $915 for St. Jude. If you are the highest bid and you have only two days left, not even, the highest bid for Dan's team,

you will co-manage a team with Dan in the FFT League, not FFT Open, just our Fantasy Football Today League, and the highest bid on Team Azor co-manages my team. So we're going to have co-managers. That's basically what you're bidding on. Now, whoever wins the match gets a pick swap in the draft. No, gets two things. Remember?

Okay, hold on. Gets a pick swap after round two. And if you want, if you like the other person's draft position after the draft order is randomly generated, you can swap that as well. And we might add in something embarrassing you can do to the other person. No, we're not going to do that. it's going to be embarrassing enough when you lose. So anyway, please go to tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024. We're trying to raise as much money as we can for St. Jude. And there are other things now that you can bid on,

including private zoom calls with me, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Everyone's got a bid so far, except for me. So get out there and get a private Zoom call with me. They are a little expensive. I get it, but we're trying to raise as much money as we can. It's a minimum $250. The other great things that you can bid on here are spots in the podcast league. And there are six of them available. The first pick, fourth pick, eighth pick, ninth pick, 12th pick, and 14th pick. You're in the podcast league. If you make the highest bid, you have four and a half days

to get there and make that bid. Tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024. And remember, the goal here is raise as much money as possible. So I know we're already going to raise over $3,000 just from the podcast league spots, but I'd love to see that get to more like $6,000. Okay. Let's take a quick detour from Beyond the Box score to tell you this, another detour. Dan Schneier, you are on the clock in the FFT Open with the fifth overall pick. The first four picks were McCaffrey, Lamb, Hall, and Tyreek Hill.

It is a two-receiver league with a flex. It is full PPR. Who are you taking in the FFT Open? Can you make this pick for me as co-commissioner? Okay. You can give me B. John Robinson. B. John Robinson? Yes, sir. Alright. So that is...

I'm seeing a lot of three running backs in the first five picks in the FFT Open so far. My league, I believe was, was like that. Um, my league is by the way.

Oh, Malik neighbors just went 24th in my league and my FFT open league. Love it. Holy moly. You love that. It's a little too early for me, but I, wow.

I think it's interesting, Jacob, because look, you posted the stats yesterday the target share in the preseason is absurd the air yardage share is absurd i think that will carry over to the regular season but if you look at the history of betting on receivers in these bottom barrel offenses in the nfl it's not the ceiling is capped so like when we take him at 24 for example are you buying him are you is the ceiling already baked in so like when we take him at 24 for example are you buying him

are you is is the ceiling already baked in the price that's the question i have for you because it could look a lot to me like waddles rookie season where it caps at four maybe five total touchdowns and it's hard to imagine getting up past that level that rank or that draft capital if he's only going to score four or five touchdowns. Yeah, that was my take going into the preseason. And then he's just looked so freaking good. And I think I think the case you just made is the same. That applies to Chris Alave as well, who's drafted right right near him, you know. So, yeah, I'm not too concerned.

I'm ranked 25th for what it's worth. All right. I mean, this guy who took Malik neighbors, he actually started his draft with Brees Hall. So he's living on the edge. And I went to college with him. Shout out to Rich. Oh, nice. Is he a Giants Jets guy?

He is a Giants fan. Yes, he is. I guess I didn't consider that when he took Malik Neighbors. Thank you for reminding me. Yeah. Let's see if he takes any Miami Hurricanes later in the draft. I could see Njoko on this team. There are no good Miami Hurricanes.

David Njoko? Oh, David Njoko. All right, all right. Yeah, good. Whatever. All right, four big topics. No, Jonathan Taylor's no good Miami Hurricanes. David Njoko? Oh, David Njoko. All right, all right. Yeah, good. Whatever. All right, four big topics. No, Jonathan Taylor's no good yet. You're a fake Wisconsin fan.

Four big topics. No way. Don't you dare. Are you a Kyron Williams believer? We did sort of get into this here. Let me see if there's anything else I wanted to. One final detour. Sign up for the FFT newsletter.

Yes. Please. This needs late shout it out more often so the fft newsletter is a free newsletter and it's basically the best newsletter out there i'm just going to be honest i'm signed up to a bunch of different fantasy newsletters they're solid they're pretty good but they're not the same level that jacob's putting into this newsletter it's the best from a stat standpoint i mean he, he's saying that. Yeah, it's easy for Jacob. This is it. Sign up and you'll see for yourself. That's really, it doesn't, it sells itself.

So go ahead and check it out. Unbelievable. And look back because on sports line, you can find all of his past newsletters in article form. He did team previews for every team in the NFL. I guarantee you, if you just read all 32 team previews, you're good.

You're set for your draft. Like it covers everything you need to know right there, but then keep reading because he'll give you sleepers breakouts. Yeah, we get it. We get it. Yeah. You're the rundown, rundown killer CBS sports.com CBS sports.com slash newsletters, CBS sports.com slash newsletters. And if you read all of it on the toilet, yes, you will get hemorrhoids which i think it's pretty clear dan schneier has had before no i've never had i've never had are you a kyron williams believer so i did watch some some tape i think he's very good at setting up his blocks finding holes i think he has very good vision he's a a good running back. He's just not fast. He's just not making those big plays that Saquon Barkley's going to make. I would say that Isaiah Pacheco's going to make.

So I think it's a tough way to rank those three guys. But I do believe I'm going to go Barkley, Pacheco. No, Barkley, Kyron, Pacheco. I think that's where I'm going to be now. Where are you at on Pacheco, Jacob? He's fine. He's going to have to score a ton of touchdowns or contribute as a receiver in a way that we've never seen before which seems unlikely with kansas city adding weapons um and that's dating back to college he was just never really involved as a pass catcher

so yeah i've got pacheco ranked after uh jonathan taylor and derrick henry after a chan gib Gibbs and Kyron Williams, ahead of Josh Jacobs, ahead of Saquon Barkley, ahead of ETN. But he did become a pass catcher last year when McKinnon got hurt. And they don't really have a third down back. I think Clyde will be... I think they'll do what they did last year and they'll mix in Clyde and Pacheco on third down.

But he's good. And like the chiefs line is good. And I think he has one of the highest injury risks of any running back as well. Pacheco. Why is that? Cause he runs so wild and violent. I mean,

truly. Yes. When you watch him, like he's putting his full energy into every single round and absorbing as much contact as humanly possible. Um, and also, uh, as humanly possible. Yeah. And also, Injury Predictor from DraftSharks.com has him as one of the highest most likely to get injured.

Interesting. All right. I don't know if we need to say anything more about Kyron. Let's go to our next topic. Which rookie-wide receivers will contribute? Okay, so obviously we got Harrison. Neighbors will be next. Jacob, who's the third highest ranked rookie receiver for you? Who's the third highest ranked rookie receiver?

Yeah, we got Xavier Worthy, McConkie. Worthy. Worthy. Yeah. Okay. Well, you did a Twitter post with every rookie and what you thought about them, basically. But if you want to focus on the receivers,

give me your rundown of the rookie receivers. Yes, I'm really excited about Brian Thomas Jr. He was someone who I was a bit dubious of coming into the season. He really never drew targets at a high-rated LSU, and he only had one season that was like a breakout season. It was his third year, but he was young. And so really, I think that's actually a strength, is that he did have such a huge season.

He had 17 touchdowns at LSU as his, I think he was 20 years old, 21 years old. He's just looked phenomenal this preseason. I hate this comparison because Josh Gordon is one of one, in my opinion, but someone threw that out there, and I'm like, honestly, he's the closest I've seen of anyone who's come in in terms of moving. Can I interrupt? How has Brian Thomas looked amazing this preseason? He has two catches on three targets on 20 routes.

He did, he did, you know, he had his big long catch when Gabe Davis was off the field. Christian Kirk hasn't been playing. I just don't know what, like I watched all of his routes today. Pretty much everything

is downfield, which is exactly how I thought they were going to use him. And if a guy who didn't draw that many targets who might be fourth on his team and targets, I'm not seeing it. And I don't really get like the, the preseason buzz either. Cause like he's just doing, he's like, Oh, doing say to be fair to like, these guys are doing it when the other starters are off the field and they're not even doing that much to begin with. Totally fair. Yeah. No, when I say he looks amazing, I mean, he truly just looks amazing. I watch him and I'm amazed at how he moves. It doesn't look human. Okay. Yeah. He's not getting targeted very often and that might carry over. I think Christian Kirk is going to be the main target and probably Evan Ingram after that. I think he's very, very good and very hard to cover.

And it's possible that if he comes down with a few big plays early in the season, Trevor Lawrence is just like, this guy is nuts. I'm going to keep throwing to him, especially on important plays and third downs and the red zone and stuff like that. Um, so I think there is a lot of upside. Uh, I mean, like I said, we saw him score 17 touchdowns. Calvin Ridley led the NFL in red zone target share and end zone target share last year. Like that's the role that he's going to fill. i think he could do it better than really and really was

okay for fantasy i mean relative to expectations where he drafted him he's a disappointment but he really wasn't that bad um i think that this rookie could expand on that i think jacksonville's offense could be a lot better than it was last year there's a lot of stuff that went into a disappointing result there that could be better that's where i'm at with btj he looks really good he's similar to keon coleman i think they're very um similar prototypes similar profiles where like the target's probably going to be low the receiving yardage might be low as well but there's upside for them to have especially in best ball leagues really really explosive week-to-week performances and if they ever do get a larger role because their talent, then like they could be a true difference maker at receiver. And I'll say this about BTJ.

He'd won in a little bit of a different way than Keon Coleman won at the college level, at least. So there is an option for him, like Jacob said, to win in three ways in the NFL, to win as that vertical threat, to win on comebacks off the vertical, which we saw him do on that one route that everybody's putting on Twitter. That was beautiful. It's unbelievable. It's the stop and start ability at that size.

And then three, which is the slants. He won with a lot of those in breakers at LSU. This is something Keon Coleman didn't do as well a job of. So I don't, don't think it's just, he's going to be just that vertical guy. They chuck it to him. I think Jacob was right. There's upside for him to just be the best receiver on this field. And this offense could be much better than we expect. Cause we expect it to be good and the offensive line collapsed last year the offensive line looks a little bit better and healthier this year it's possible i find that josh garrick uh gordon comparison very lofty to me i see more martavius bryant than josh gordon in btj i don't think he's anywhere near as strong as what josh gordon was which is what made that profile what it was and that's something I saw on his tape at LSU.

I felt like he was lost a lot because of his play strength. Now we'll see if he can work on that and improve that. And that's something that could happen. He's still really young, a really young prospect. But look, in the end, it's like you're betting on upside. You're betting on talent. And there's no one really on that team. If that offense is clicking, there's no one really on that team.

In my mind, at least, that's a better option in the red zone than btj and so it's interesting and ridley had the most or the second most end zone targets last year so that is something that that's a role that needs to be filled uh would you take brian thomas jr or keon coleman ahead of these two guys jsn jameson williams definitely ahead of williams not ahead of jason uh it's close for me i'm really high on jameson williams this year um i know that's a little bit against consensus jsn i'm not light love as a player don't love that cyst i i'm not as high on the seahawks that offensive line scares the hell out of me. I would take him. No, it's still too much of a risk. I think I would say no and no.

You'd take the veterans over the rookies. I think so, yeah. Okay. Xavier Worthy. I'm taking him over all those guys. Ladd McConkie. No way. I am so low on Ladd for this season.

I couldn't be lower. I just updated my rankings. I moved him down so many spots. Ladd McConkie played only the slot in his first action of the preseason. lad for this season. I couldn't be lower. I just updated my rankings. I moved them down so many spots. Lime McConkie played only the slot in his first action of the preseason. Who knows what that role is even going to be in a Jim Harbaugh offense. I think we could be looking at a devastatingly bad year for him if you draft

him in fantasy. I think this is a little bit of an overreaction. And this is get the nachos out because I'm buying the dip. Thank you. You know, they didn't laugh yesterday. Thank you for giving me a snicker. Who laughed?

Nobody laughed. Dave and Jacob. No, even just now. Oh, you got a snicker from Jacob. Yeah, that was like, it was. I thought Dave's joke right after was actually decent and better than yours. What did he say? I couldn't hear him.

He made a joke with the word chip as if it was the other word that sounds like chip, but I don't remember the exact joke now. Like who gives a chip? Oh, okay. Okay. Like that. Right. Chip doesn't really sound like that word, but fine. If you think that's a better joke. Uh, no, look, I think that I, first of all, I don't know that I really buy the chargers run game. Like Gus Edwards and. Dobbins at this point. Who cares who's running the ball? Would you see how it looks in the preseason? Yes, this is what I'm talking about,

people. The preseason. Who did they play? Did they play the Rams last week? It doesn't matter. The Giants are... I see all these teams trying to run the ball

in the preseason. The Giants are horrible. The Texans, the Lions, nobody's running the ball in the preseason. Okay, they're going to try to run the ball, but their best player is still Justin Herbert.

The running game is not dependent on the running backs. The running game is dependent on the scheme and the blockers. That's what the NFL is really about. Okay, so they should be fine there. They still have Justin Herbert. They still need to throw the ball. McConkie, they didn't draft him where they drafted him for no reason. They're not going to sit him for no reason. They didn't draft.

They're not going to sit him for Quentin Johnston, right? They obviously wanted to get like. Quentin Johnston's way down the depth chart. Yeah, so Josh Palmer is ahead of him. DJ Chark is going to play, but like McConkie's going to play. It might take some time. But where? That's the question.

Like, is he going to play on the outside? That's the big question. He's probably going to play in the slot, but this is a guy who played on the outside. There will be no slot, though. He played on the outside at Georgia. He can do it. Yes, I a guy who played on the outside. There will be no slot, though. He played on the outside at Georgia. He can do it. Yes, I think he can win on the outside. I think we're overreacting to preseason developments. Okay, and I think he can win on the outside.

But again, why is this happening anyway in the first place, Adam? It's because it's been a slow start for him in preseason because he's been injured. He has a massive injury profile, so he's coming into the NFL with. I am worried about – look, his tape was phenomenal. That's why it was so high on lad. That's why I drafted him and all the rookie drafts. Love the tape. Thought he could be a really good separate at the NFL level.

That injury profile, the fact that he's in this horrible offense. I just, it's not for me for this year. It's a down the year, cut down the line kind of thing for me. That's fine. I won't draft him anywhere.

Before the preseason started, you know, in our drafts, we were taking him in like the seventh round. Now he's like double digit rounds. So I'm buying the dip. That's all I'm saying. But think about how you're phrasing that, Adam.

This is like a philosophical fantasy question. You're saying because he was being drafted in a certain range before, you now deem him to be a value because he's being drafted in a different range now. But that doesn't guarantee that the range he was being drafted before, which is just group thing. Consensus was the correct range in the first place. Fair. That's fair.

Yeah. Okay. So it seems like a value, but we're not, it's not a guarantee. Well, no, it's not a guarantee.

I also think Josh Palmer is a good value by the way, but I think he's by far the best. Um, still a good value and even even better now because i think after the herbert injury everyone fell on that yes so herbert's back you know he's gonna play week one right i mean i think he's gonna play i don't think it doesn't seem like he they say he looks fine uh who else any other rookie wide receivers that we need to talk about yeah i've got the rookie roundup if you want me to just go with it here yeah ben senate oh wait tight end sorry i need to take a break

sorry uh quick break and then when we come back we'll get the rookie roundup from jacob gibbs we'll be right back on fft i was gonna do like a yeehaw western thing here for the rookie roundup but i'm not gonna do it go ahead give me the rookie roundup. Yeehaw. Ben Sinnott, tight end, Washington. Looks phenomenal out there. He's working down the seams. He's working downfield. He's also, every time he had four receptions,

every single one of them ends in a pileup of players because he's just so hard to bring down. Since I'm just throwing out ridiculous comparisons, he kind of looks like Mark Andrews to me. And I worry a bit about the offense. I don't know if he's going to matter this year. It might take a Zach Ertz injury or something like that. But from a talent standpoint, he absolutely checks all the boxes

that I wanted to see this preseason. And he's being used as a real tight end. He's being used in the slot. People thought he was going to be used a fullback and stuff like that because that's something that happened early in his career at K-State that hasn't been the case. Team A lot. Luke McCaffrey, you might know his brother he's looked awesome he's only played against third and fourth string players so far which is disappointing i was

hoping that they might they said they want to experiment with the receivers and see what they've got at the wide receiver two spot that hasn't amounted to any first things team snaps for mcafree yet but um someone is going to get a lot of design touches in this offense. Curtis Samuel is gone. And if you've paid attention to what they've done with the first team offense, it's been very, very quick hitting.

I think Dan doesn't like it. I mean, yeah, it's the horizontal rate cliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury goes to Thailand, comes back and it's the same offense. It's so painful to watch this. I don't know why people keep hiring this guy.

It's crazy. It's a painful to watch this. I don't know why people keep hiring this guy. It's crazy to me. It's a great question. Anyway, someone is going to get a lot of RPO targets, quick slam pitches, screens, all that stuff. I don't know who it's going to be. It might be Terry McLaurin. I speculated on that on Twitter. I made a cut up of all of his preseason routes. He's being used much more around the line of scrimmage than typically and he for what it's worth mclaurin has actually been one of the most productive short yardage targets in the nfl throughout his career every single season outside of his rookie year he's been really really good really efficient with short routes so it could be mclaurin or it could be lou mccaffrey i think he's really good with the ball in his hands and i've really really liked what i saw from him this preseason. He, he, I liked his tape at rice, but he was playing against a lower level of competition.

And so I was curious how it would translate, but even against NFL athletes, he looks good to me. He looks like somebody who can win. Um, Bucky Irving is probably my favorite player to watch this preseason for Tampa Bay. I think the run game is going to be a lot better this year. Um, I can't ever remember the round, their first-round center that they drafted. Do you have it, Dan? Graham Barton. Graham Barton. He's a beast. If you watch Bucky Irving's touchdown run,

you might see in the back of the end zone, Graham Barton just shoving someone into the stands. He's crazy. I love this guy. He's just bowling people. I like Liam Cohen, the offensive coordinator they brought in. I think he might help the run game a lot. I'm pretty excited for Bucky. Same team, Jalen McMillan.

It might take an injury, but, man, he looks so smooth out there. He's been just constant drumbeat this training camp preseason about how good he looks in practice. He's just – he's open all the time. And so I don't know, you know, with Godwin and Evans, if that's going to amount to much. That third receiver typically in the South has not been targeted at a high rate but new offensive coordinator things could change a little bit obviously those receivers are aging

as well um he's a good name to note jaylen mcmillan i thought romo dunzey looks like a stud um it's going to be it might be a while before he's playing in two receiver sets and everything um and the bears have used two receiver sets at the highest rate in the NFL this preseason. Make up what you will of that. I think surely they've got, at some point, Shane Waldron has to look at his personnel and be like, my best bet is to play these three receivers. But he didn't do that in Seattle, and that was his best bet there too.

Yeah. I don't think that's part of his DNA. And he even used Disley, not Disley, yeah, Disley a bunch. Like Mercedes Lewis, we forget he's on this roster. I think he's actually going to get some snaps too in the regular season it's gonna be a lot of 12 but yeah sorry no you're good uh keenan allen looks slow and roma dunzey looks like the stud that we saw at washington and so i think in time he's going to potentially be the one or the two on this team he's just really really good and obviously c obviously, Caleb Williams looks every bit the part. Ray Davis has been one of my favorite running backs to watch.

He looks so good. And I think he could play a role. He can do it all. He can play on passing downs. He's good in jury arch situations. And he can rip off explosive runs. He has really good vision. He's just really, really fun.

And so he could cut into James Cook's workload a little bit. I don't necessarily expect that. Um, but if Cook goes down, this is a guy who could play three downs and one of the best offenses in the NFL. So to me, he's like at the absolute top of the list of premium handcuffs. And I don't think he's necessarily treated that way. I think most people prefer Blake Corum to him. Um, is that your guys read on that? I prefer Blake Corum to him. Yeah. I mean, the offense, I think is probably going to be better in Buffalo. And I really think he has shown more as a pass catcher than Corum.

I don't know. I tie Johnson there. I mean, I feel like that's the guy that's going to be in. Because Johnson's been injured much of this preseason, that he's going to be the pass catching guy if James Cook gets hurt. Plus, I think Kyron Williams is always hurt. So if I had to just guess, I don't like to guess about who's going to get injured,

but I think I'd take a chance on Kyron Williams getting hurt before James Cook getting hurt. And I think, I mean, LaCorum went well ahead of Ray Davis in the NFL draft. He's more accomplished. Didn't have a great season coming off a knee injury at Michigan. Didn't have a great season last year, but it was really good before that.

And he has been so good near the goal line. That guy just scores whenever he gets that chance. I think Ray Davis could be good at that, too. I have a few thoughts on some of the players you broke down, Jacob. I want to start with the one that's most intriguing to me. It's Bucky Irving, and I'll tell you why he's most intriguing. I watched your film cut up,

then I went back and watched my own film. He looks really good this preseason, and we have a new coaching staff in place here on the offensive side of the ball and essentially the only reason rashad white was what he was last year in fantasy was volume based um both as a receipt a receiver and just pure volume overall versus the rest of the nfl and yet despite all that volume and shout out to my boy rashad right who once reached out to me when i put up some of his tape um he was a little bit inefficient with that volume um and there was just no one behind him to take over any role there. Now there might be someone behind him in Bucky Irving. Who's really talented and looks

really good. It looks like he's acclimating himself to the offense already. I've moved Rashad right down a few spots. He was already very low in my rankings. I've moved Bucky Irving up. He's one of, I have a lot of these priority handcuffs. I like a lot of these backs, Braylon Allen, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis. Now let me get to Ray Davis. That was the other intriguing one, a little bit different than you, Adam, on this one. Ray Davis's tape at Kentucky was phenomenal. When I, when I evaluated him, I said, the only reason he's not going to go early in the draft is because of his age and this perception. They said so many carries and he's maxed out quote unquote, but maxed out is my opinion a

little bit overrated a lot of nfl general managers and talent evaluators want to get a younger player or somebody who hasn't fully hit their potential but in reality like these are this position of running back like i'm not sure ray davis has fully hit his potential just because he played a lot of snaps and was really good in all the snaps like jacob said he can do it all pass protect catch the football run between the tackles run outside theles. It's like a potential workhorse. If he ever got the role guy and James cook, we're just assuming he's going to be the workhorse because he was that down the stretch last season, but he's not really built to be that. And never was when he came out of Georgia, he was not comp to his brother Dalvin. He was not

the same build as Dalvin. He is a smaller back. And so I'm not sold that James Cook is going to have the volume everyone projects. And I kind of feel like the bills have shown us over the last few years that they want to put multiple backs on the field since Brandon Bean has been their general manager. And they've shown us that they're going to get cute in the red zone with their backs. And it's not just going to be James Cook trotted out there every single snap. So I really, really like Ray Davis, Davis, Bucky Ir irving and braylon allen are three backs that i want on in my deeper leagues where i have a lot of roster space on the bench i want on my rosters all right can we uh let's move on to our next topic if that's cool yes uh real quick we got a

who's this year's puka jacob we're all counting on you um jordan whittington for the team team yeah let's just run it back with some random receiver on the Rams. He looks awesome this preseason and they have been talking about him all summer. Um, so he's a name to know he's not as good as Puka in my opinion. Um, and then the other one I would bring up is we said earlier this off season, who's this year's Puka Tyrone Tracy. He looked awesome. Um, he looked decisive.

He looked instinctual as a runner like everything you'd want to see as somebody who's you know made the transition um to running back and everything he looks great and he was the clear-cut RB2 and he's back he's back in practice they're calling him uh Paul Pierce and everything because of the recovery yeah so he's one note on that that's really important to note in the preseason game he was hurt for now he's back at practice they did not work in Eric gray with the first team offense, the giants. I think he had just three snaps and,

and single tire 26 in the other preseason game. Tracy was worked in a lot with the first team offense. I think that tells you all you need to know. The giants do not view gray as a first team runner. They do view Tracy as a first team runner. It's healthy. Okay. Um,

good. Shout out. Well, Shipley, he's awesome. Oh, he's so good. He was so good at Clemson. He was so underrated in this draft. Okay. Good? Shout out Will Shipley. He's awesome. Oh, he's so good. He was so good at Clemson. He was so underrated in this draft.

Okay. Everyone's great. This is the thing. Every rookie's great. No. Not every rookie. Every rookie's great, including the day three running backs

in a bad running back class when historically day three running backs are not good fantasy contributors. No, it was, Adam, it was a bad running back class at the top. It was not a bad running back No, Adam, it was a bad running back class at the top. It was not a bad running back class in general. It was a bad running back class. Top end-wise, yes. Top end-wise, yes.

All right. All these guys are great. And, yeah, it's a season of optimism. Let's talk about the players that we do and do not draft. So players that you typically skip over. Dan, you got a list or some thoughts? I see in the rundown you had this. You didn't really ask me to put this together beforehand, but I can do it quickly.

I told you earlier I skip over Jameer Gibbs at his price. I tend to skip over Rashad White at his price. That's not a player that I'm buying in on. Alvin Kamara, this is a third player that I skip over. Oh, no, that's my guy. Yeah, that's your guy. It's not a player that i'm buying in on alvin camara this is a third player that i know that's my guy oh yeah that's my yeah that's your guy it's not my guy zamir white and ramondre stevenson zamir white to me has got to be one of the most mispriced players in all the fantasy like we've literally been looking at almost a pure split this preseason between him and alexander madison and yet people are buying him like he's any anything. Anything. Like you're taking him over legit players in your draft.

I don't know. I'd have to look at ADP. So here's the thing. I think where he goes at running back is Amir White. It makes sense. But because you're taking him over. First the receivers, I'm saying. I'm not saying first the receivers.

That's why I've made the case that round five is the worst round for running backs. Yeah. And that's not, it's a good case to make, Adam, because history is on your side. Well, you've got CB. Yeah, go ahead. The FFT crew has Samir White consensus rank ahead of

David Montgomery, Najee Harris, James Connor. No way. I prefer all three of those guys. I think I'd take him over Najee Harris. No way. Well, it depends. I take him over Najee Harris. No way. Well, it depends. I mean,

is Jalen Warren missing one game? Even if he's not, I'm not taking him over. What are we, what are we buying into his Amir white? Just that he had a good end of the season last year when the Raiders were in game. Now that has to repeat itself.

The Raiders have to stay in games and Alexander Madison has to be no part of the offense. Yeah. Okay. Okay. All right. Go ahead. Yeah.

Go ahead, Jacob. What? I have Zemir White ranked 96th overall for what it's worth. I'm good with that on this one. I haven't drafted Zemir White. I mean, I would draft him in a non PPR league. I would, I would maybe draft him in a half PPR league. I don't really want him in a full PPR league, but here's the thing.

Like Najee Harris, we've, we've three years of Najee Harris as an uninspiring, you know, uninspiring, non-explosive rusher, inefficient guy. He's lost what he had his rookie year where he got all the catches. That's gone. Now, if Jalen Warren's out, then, OK, then things change. But I don't think Warren's going to miss that much time. So, yeah, I'd take him over anybody who's in a split backfield because he's I don't know that he's in a split backfield. I mean, I think they're going to try to work Madison in. But look, I'm not I don't want to make a big case for Rashad for Zamir.

Why? I think it's a bad time to draft running backs. And I would definitely take Montgomery and James Connor ahead of him. I agree. But I just think it's a way, by the way, it was a former day three draft pick. Just just to just to keep that in mind. I lost their offensive line coach this this offseason. The Steelers have added a lot of offensive line talent to their roster, and they have one of the better run schemers in the game in Arthur Smith. All right, fine.

And the run scheme is exactly perfect for Najee. It's all zone rushing, outside zone rushing. That's Najee. I have the Steelers projected for the second most rush attempts, the eighth most rushing yards, and seventh most rushing touchdowns. And, yeah, I just think so much of that's going to Najee. All right. When, when Cornell Patterson gets his eight carries,

you guys start screaming. Well, that's going to be annoying, but a few players I'm also avoiding. Anthony Richardson can't buy myself into the cost. I feel like almost all of his upside is already priced into the cost. And I still think we're going to see some big struggles from a consistency and accuracy and ball placement standpoint. He makes some spectacular throws, but he's also off a lot. He has some really bad joint practices with, I believe, uh, the bangles.

And it just kind of gives me a little bit of, it's not just that I just, it's his profile entirely. I just think he's been mispriced this entire off season at the quarterback position. No one else stands out to me too much at quarterback is mispriced. It's like the market has done a good job there. It's okay. We can, you don't need a name like everybody. Oh, I thought you wanted all my guys. No, I want everybody's guys. Yeah, we have plenty of time, don't we? Not really. We're at 51 minutes already here.

Then you know what? I'll cut off at just quarterbacks and running backs. I'll let you take it to the rest. All right, Jacob. Who's on your do not draft list? Saquon, we've already mentioned. Joe Mixon is a good one to bring up. I hate this one because I love Mixon.

Go on. You love Mixon, man? Yes. Yeah, I don't love Mixon off-field stuff. I don't love Mixon on-field stuff. He is not good. He's been one of the least effective running backs for some time now. His fantasy value has been predicated on this huge role where he gets a ton of red zone

touches. He gets a ton of receptions. He's now on the Texans who could score a lot of touchdowns, of course, but their starting running backs were not super involved in the red zone last year. If you look at the total percentage of a team's red zone touches, Joe Mixon was third last year at 47%. Devin Singletary's rate was 29 when he was the starting running back for houston so i don't expect quite as many touchdowns i certainly hope that the touchdowns are coming through the ground game when they've got all these awesome pass catching options and cj stroud could throw for 40 touchdowns um but yeah just looking at projection standpoint i don't expect a ton of touchdowns and then the receiving thing i don't think people

realize this but cj stroud throws to running backs, less than like any quarterback, less than the scrambling quarterbacks. If you look at collegiate running back target percentage, he's at 7%. And then the next lowest among quarterbacks drafted in rounds one or two is 12%. So it's like not close at all. And we saw that last year as well and people were like people have told me like it's because of singletary but i mean it dates back to college and then if you watch cj stroud it's the way that he likes to play he takes a lot of sacks because he's looking

to throw the ball down the field all the time he's very similar to will levis in that regard um where he he's like i want to make the big play and if i get sacked then i'll just make up for it on the next play and he's got the personnel to do it with the receivers there in houston um so i'm really not expecting very many targets for mixing at all and so what's the end result it's just not it's not good for fantasy it's basically like the outcomes that i projected for saquon barkley and jonathan taylor and people like that where i was gonna say that they have to have they have to have a massive touchdown total um two hours later you know that's such a reduced cost well because he's much much much worse than those guys he's been much much worse and he's been a top 12

running back per game in five of the last six seasons i don't think i'm getting a home because of yeah but you're getting but you're getting like first of all rookie quarterbacks don't throw to running backs that much but isn't it possible that coud says, okay, I'm maturing as a quarterback. Instead of taking sacks, I'm going to start dumping it off to my running back a little bit more. Or to Stefan Diggs and Dalton Schultz. I think you're right on that front, Jacob. I think you're right.

But the reception is going to go down, especially because that Bengals offense is designed in a way that really features the running backs in the passing game. That's not the case for Stroud or Bobby Sloan. What I have noticed is that Joe Burrow, if you look at his last two years and his running back, his throws to running backs, on first and second down when Mixon was playing.

Two years ago, it was really high. I think last year, it was actually kind of low. But if you are a guy like Mixon, and you are the only running back on the field in those situations, I think he's still going to end up with 40 or more catches, which isn't really that much, but we don't really live in an era with a, with a lot of running back catches right now. Like there aren't that many guys who are catching a ton of passes. I think there were only, I can't remember, but it's like

maybe eight running backs had more than 52 or 53 catches last year. So if you can get 40, like you get it, you get a top five running back every year that doesn't have 40 or 50 catches. Mostert last year. Kyron Williams was like RB7 and he missed all those games so he didn't have that many catches. It doesn't matter as much as it used to.

And Mixon is just, he's the same guy. He's like an average or below average player on a great offense who's going to get all the touches that matter and just kind of end up as a useful running back and now you get him in round four you just have to take him in round two he might be fine but man i would so much rather take the receivers and tight ends in that range and take places i do understand that and generally speaking we're aligned obviously from strategic

standpoint on that almost 100 of the time my one thing with mixing well, I think we're going to lose some receiving volume. I think I actually feel more confident about the touchdowns because two reasons, and it's the real reason I like Mixon this year. His whole entire career, I feel like he's been miscast as a runner in Cincinnati because they're primarily just would burrow a shotgun offense. Now with Bobby Slowick, it's an under center offense. And that outside zone scheme and his style as a runner in the outside zone scheme from under center, I think fits so much better. So I think people might be very surprised at how effective he is as a runner this year

in the red zone and just overall. That's my bet with him by going under center, by allowing him to be what he should be as a running back, not this shotgun runner, which is really not good for any running back in general, to be completely honest, but it's definitely not good for mixing style. He's a one cut and go kind of guy. I think that he could fit this scheme. Well, that's really what I'm banking on. I could be way wrong on that, but that's where I'm at with mix. And I don't love him or anything. I'm not super bullish. I just think the cost he's an easy win. Yeah. One last thing. Cause people are pushing back on me saying that Mixon isn't a very good

player. Um, he avoided 12% of tackles last year, which ranked 33rd of 35 qualified running backs. He averaged 2.5 yards after contact per rush that ranked 32nd of 35 qualified running backs. I know people don't like PFF grades, but Devin Singletary is at a higher PFF grade than Joe Mixon every single season he's been in the NFL. Can I ask you where Chase Brown is in that? If you have that, you might not have that. Obviously I don't have it off the top. I'd be curious because I think Chase Brown was low in that as well. And I would bet that most bangles running backs will be low in that when you're running primarily out of shotgun. I just don't think it's good for the running back. Zach Moss has been good. They're running out. Okay. So that defies that okay that's fine well i mean jamie's no no no back moss is coming from

india it says not defy that okay no but he's been that's been a good it's been he's i mean i don't have any data to back that up it's just something that my observation is when you're running out of shotgun it's not good for running backs yeah no it's my thing with camara who's on dan's list of players he doesn't draft and mixin is that these guys are not great running backs anymore. I don't know if Mixon ever was maybe at one season. Um, but I just think they're so discounted now being round four guys. And they're the last group of running backs. You heard me talk about all the time, Mixon, Camara, Ken Walker, this group of three running backs before we start to get to the guys that I really don't really don't want to take, right? The Aaron Jones, James Conner, David Montgomery is a mirror white Ramond Ray Stevenson Najee Harris Jonathan Brooks I

thought that I hate all of them but I don't I don't know I just don't want to be in that group and then you still have great wide receiver value when that group is going so that's why in round four I it's a no-brainer for me to take one of those big three of Mixon Camara and uh Walker and then get back into the Tank Dell T T. Higgins, George Pickens, Amari Cooper group in round five, instead of having to take James Conner or Zemir White there. I say that every show, but I wanted to say it on Beyond the Box score. Dan, for what it's worth, Joe Mixon's avoided tackle rate

dropped to 8% when he was not running out of the shotgun. Okay, so it was even worse. Yeah. All right, maybe Joe Mixon just sucks, and I'll be wrong about that. Kind of seems like he sucks. Yep, it's definitely possible. But again, it doesn't necessarily matter if you're the lead guy in a great offense. And then the reason why I like Kamara is because if Kamara sucks again,

he hasn't had a 30-yard run in three years, or maybe his high in three years is 30 yards. Who's taking him off the field. Are they going to make Taysom Hill the guy like he doesn't have a good backup and Damian Pierce looks horrible in the preseason and he's coming off a horrible season. Who's taking Joe Mixon off the field. If they rush for 10 touchdowns, Mixon's getting eight of them. So I just like, I agree with your assessment that Mixon isn't good. I've been saying that for a while there. He like, I think he's like average, maybe a little below, but I don't think he's bad, but I just love, I love the situation to be able to, I like volume in a really good offense. That's why I like Mixon, but I also just weirdly think he's going to fit that Bobby Slope system. That that's one we'll

check at the end of the year, Jacob, and we'll see what happens there and if I was on to something at all there. I think it's funny that you get Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, CJ Stroud, Stefan Diggs, Tank Dell. They're all within like 30 picks. The Texans own that part of the draft from rounds three to six.

Bet on good offenses. Is there anyone else you wanted to mention, Jacob? Aaron Jones, similar type of thing. Worry about age, worry about injuries. Could have competition in the backfield. Also worry about the offense. Jordan Addison, on that note. Don't want Jordan Addison.

Ladd McConkie, we've already hit on. I've been out on McConkie the whole time. Worry about him playing in two receiver sets i don't think he's going to at least early on um he has real struggles against press coverage um the team's going to run a lot uh zay flowers is one that might surprise people i think zay flowers is fun um but so much of what he got last year was designed and when mark andrews was healthy which was really not very often like half the season basically like nine games in those games mark andrews was used

i think this is actually important mark andrews was used in a way that people didn't realize like this was a new offense under todd monken and when andrews was healthy he was the offensive focal point of the passing game like he was used more like travis kelsey whereas in the past he's been really unique in the way he's been used mark andrews has been by far the best downfield threat at tight end um in the nfl since he's entered the league and this past year for the first time we saw him use i think he's averaged up the target was like seven yards or something normally it's around 10 um and when andrews was healthy zay flowers was running down the field way more and clearing out space for him.

And so if that is the way that they wanted to use those two, that's not very good for Zay Flowers. He wasn't targeted at a very high rate on those routes. He's somebody who struggled a bit against press coverage as well. So yeah, to me, I don't understand where those two are picked relative to each other. It's changed some. People are getting higher on Andrews and lower on Flowers, but I still am just not very interested in Flowers, where he's going.

I don't know if you remember, but all throughout the early offseason, I kept saying, why are people taking Zay Flowers ahead of Mark Andrews? It makes no sense to me. But now they're not even really that close. Zay Flowers is becoming a late round six pick. So I was completely out on Zay Flowers,

and now I'm very in on Zay Flowers as my third receiver because he's terrific, and I don't want to judge him too harshly on what he did as a rookie. He's a terrific athlete. I don't think he's going to have a great season, but I think he's right there with Terry McLaurin. I would take McLaurin ahead of him. Then right after that, I'd take Flowers ahead of Deontay Johnson.

I'd take him ahead of reluctantly christian watson and jayden reed um i don't know how about you guys flowers or the packers um i actually do have him ahead of watson and reed i i don't yeah where he's going now is about right i just haven't drafted him yet maybe that's gonna change over the next you know few weeks i'm keeping an eye on some of these FFT Open Leagues. Katie Mox's division just started drafting. The guy with the first pick took McCaffrey, or guy or girl.

Team name, I'm on another level. It's pretty good. Oh, if you have him on St. Brown. A-M-O-N. Another level. It doesn't really make sense if you draft McCaffrey. Yeah, well, it's still funny. Okay, four guys I haven't been drafting. Sorry, Jacob.

I have not been drafting Nico Collins. I love Nico Collins. Wrong. I think if they didn't have Stefan Biggs, Collins would be an early second round pick for me. I think it's going to be frustrating with those three guys. I haven't drafted DK Metcalf. I just, I don't know.

I don't see like the huge upside. I haven't drafted him a lot, but I don't dislike him either. So it's weird. No, I don't dislike DK Metcalf. I just, I don't know. I don't see like the huge upside there. I haven't drafted him a lot, but I don't dislike him either. So it's weird. No, I don't dislike him at all. I think he's fine in round four, but I'd take neighbors over him. I would rather wait around

for all the guys I keep mentioning. Cooper, Higgins, Pickens, Tank Dell. That's probably my favorite area for wide receivers. Love those values. So I haven't drafted Metcalf. I'd take Devante Smith over him. Whereas earlier in the off season, I think't drafted Metcalf. I take Devante Smith over him. Whereas earlier in the off season,

I think I was Metcalf, but now I'm taking Smith there and I haven't drafted Sam Laporta. Cause I just think it's, it's just too realistic that one of the other big four at tight end is better than Laporta. I don't see him being clearly better. So I haven't taken Laporta and I haven't taken Kittle. It's a guy who's averaged fewer fantasy points per game than the year before

four straight seasons. Wow. If there's an issue with Ayuk, I'm starting to start to think that Ayuk's going to have a bad year. Why? I don't know if people have talked about this, but I think two years ago when Debo Samuel I'd like to confirm this.

When Debo Samuel had his down year, I think he was a training camp holdout and everything that's happening with IUK I just hate so there's some data behind that but I'm not sure it's that like what's the word like I don't know if it's like definitive data on

it but I have seen some data on training camp holdouts I think if he goes to Steelers he's effed if he doesn't go to the Steelers I'm assuming he's going to be back with San Francisco, but I'm, I'm not like, I'm not drafting Brandon Iuke right now either. Uh, but, uh, you know, like that's the thing with Kittle. I don't think he can be great. I didn't really love his cost to begin with. I'll just say that I don't think Kittle can be great with both Iuke and Debo on the field and healthy. However, I'm getting worried about Iuke, which should make me more optimistic about George Kittle. And you could look at Josh Jacobs training camp holdout last year. That was horrible

for him. And Jonathan Taylor with the injury and the holdout, that didn't work out well for him. It was a little bit different because he got hurt, but I haven't seen too many examples of wide receivers. Let me ask you a top of the board question for both of you that I've been curious about as we go through draft season. And we're all going to have some of our biggest drafts coming up. Are you guys at all nervous about Jamar Chase and CeeDee Lamb holdouts? I'm like a few days away. What are you going to do?

You're still drafting him normally, correct? Yeah. Okay. After the running backs, after Brees Hall and Bichon. Okay. And McCaffrey? Not CeeDee Lamb. CeeDee Lamb out of those guys. Yeah, of course. Lamb has to be. Yeah. You include McCaffrey in there,

right? Jacob. Yeah. McCaffrey first. Do you want some nuggets on same Laporta? No. Yes. So I was where you were at on the portal early in the off season.

Um, I did, you know, touchdown regression type stuff and just worried that he was overvalued. And I think that is kind of the case. Um, but the more I dug into his target numbers i'm actually really encouraged about him as a player and the potential for him to take a massive step forward in year two um in terms of targets and receptions and yards and we talk about contingency upside i don't think that amanda st brown's gonna miss time just because that guy is really intense. Adam,

you had him on the podcast, you know, he's going to play, he's going to play through anything. Um, but if he were to miss time, then the port is going to explode. Like he might put up a historic type of tight end season.

Um, so the stuff I've got in here, I'm, I want to compare LaPorta to early career, Travis, Kelsey, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle.

He's ahead of those guys in basically every metric. And he did it at a younger age than all of those guys in their first season um all the per route stuff favors laporta compared to those guys in their first year his target per run rate was 24 kelsey's was 23 andrews was 18 kittle was 17 all these guys were productive early in their career they might not have been huge fantasy superstars in the way laporta was as a rookie, but by year two, at least they were already putting up massive numbers. And that's the other thing that's interesting is they all took, Kelsey didn't. Kelsey was just really good in year one, really good in year two. The other two took massive steps in year two,

which is pretty typical of tight end. If you look at the analysis that Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points has done, year two is when you want to be targeting tight ends. Year three as well. But year two is a big leap forward year. And Laporta was better than any of them as a rookie in terms of not just fantasy points and touchdowns, but also drawing targets. The other nugget that I found that was really interesting was Sam Laporta out-targeted Amonra St. Brown

in four games last year. He's the first teammate to out-target Amonra St. Brown in a game that St. Brown played 80% of the snaps or more since his rookie season. So Amonra's first game where he played 80% of the snaps, TJ Hawkinson saw more targets. Since then, 18 straight games, no one out-targeted him. Laporta did it four times as a rookie, which is definitely noteworthy to me. That's it. Those are the nuggets. I'll give you one other great Laporta stat.

They have almost exclusively indoor games this year, and he caught all 10 of his touchdowns in 11 indoor games last year. Laporta didn't have a touchdown. Jared Goff throws his touchdowns. It's the only time he throws his touchdowns. Aren't they playing 12 or 13 indoor games this year? That's what he's saying.

Almost their entire schedule is indoors. But I think the difference might be Dan and I, I think are higher on Jamison Williams than you are. And that's what I think is going to be one of the differences this year. I think Williams has a big target spike, which I don't think hurts St. Brown, but probably hurts if it hurts anyone hurts LaPorta.

Yeah. I have a tough time getting there with, with Williams and the targets just because of the routes that he runs. His average route depth is over 10 yards. His average depth of targets, almost 20 yards. Like no one is though. I think that that's the thing.

Like, I feel like he's not just that guy. He's running different routes in, in training camp. That's, I thought he was more than that guy at Alabama. That's kind of where we're at with that. Yeah, I hope so.

If you're right, you're right, though. I mean, that's kind of what... But if he's just that guy again, Jacob, like if he's what he was last year, you're right. That is going to be a bad call, and he's going to be bad for fantasy. Guys, great stuff today. It was fun to get the band back together.

Yes, it was. One week. I'm excited about it. One week from today is the match. The match. You better hope that you're as good as you're saying you are. Good for you that you keep... I think you're going to win. I'm excited about it. One week from today is the match. The match. You better hope that you're as good as you're saying you are. And I'm good for you that you keep. I think you're going to win.

I do. I just, I don't think you're going to. What? Don't do that. No, I'm serious. No, I'm back in. I'm talking about the broken racket. You're, A, told me you had a knee injury yesterday that it was offline. No, no.

And now bringing it online. A little knee injury. And then, B, now you're saying you're going to lose? That's pathetic. You don't have confidence in yourself. I played a guy yesterday who played high school tennis. Okay. You beat him 6-4, 6-0.

No, I didn't. That was two days ago. Yesterday, I was losing 5-2. You play every day. I'm losing track. I was losing 2-5. I came back. I won a tiebreaker.

Wow. But you're probably better than him. So I think you're going to beat me. But I think you're going to beat me like 6-3, 6-3. I don't think you're going to bagel me, as you say. The only bagels will be at the Mount Kisco Diner after tennis, all right? I'm excited for you. You've talked up this Mount Kisco Diner a lot, so it better be as good as you say.

And we're going to have full food review, full match view, everything. How old was the guy that I played? That's what Heath said. He said he was like, was this guy 60? No, he's younger than Dan. He's like the same age as Dan. He's like 37. What are you, 37? No, he's younger than Dan. He's like the same age as Dan. He's like 37. What are you, 37?

I'm not 37. I'm just a month ago turned 35. Oh, sorry. You look 37. All right, we got to go, everybody. Wow. Double bagel on its way. We got to go.

For Jacob and Dan and Thomas, I'm Adam. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football.