Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Lamar, Najee, Pierce and More (11/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 21, 2022

Recapping the Chiefs-Chargers game as Josh Palmer could be in for a big Fantasy finish, but do we feel the same way about Isiah Pacheco? Then we'll update you on the news and notes (10:52) including the Broncos running back situation ... Advanced stats! Jacob tells you some awesome stuff on Gabe Davis (15:00), Treylon Burks (17:50) and Pat Freiermuth (20:30). We have more stats on Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor and the Jets RBs ... Four Big Topics! What's wrong with Lamar Jackson (26:55) and Dameon Pierce (32:30)? Is Najee Harris about to have a big second half (36:30)? Should we be more open to stacking in redraft leagues (41:00)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to Beyond the Boxscore. Here's the stat for you. You're not going to see this one in the Boxscore. Here's the stat for you. You're not going to see this one in the boxscore. Let's say you're playing in a full PPR, four-point-per-passing touchdown league. Travis Kelsey has outscored all but four quarterbacks this year in that format.

Full PPR, four-point-per-passing touchdown league. Travis Kelsey would be QB5. I've got Jacob Gibbs here. No Dan Schneier today. I'm Adam Azer. Welcome to the show on this Monday. I am watching the World Cup. Jacob is not interested.

More on that in a little bit. The Chargers go up late against your Chiefs. They score the touch to Josh Palmer. Second touchdown of the game. Did you have any doubt that the Chiefs were going to win that game at that point? No. I was just talking with Thomas, our producer, right before we jumped on. It's like, it's so insane how

little doubt there is. When Mahomes gets the ball there, a minute and a half, it's like, that's way too much time. We know he's going to score, and then he just goes down and scores with ease. We're so spoiled. He's absolutely insane. It's crazy. And he's having, you know, arguably his best season.

He's about a fantasy point per game less than what he did in his MVP year. But he's doing it without Tyreek Hill. And now without Juju. And Cairnarius, Tony barely plays. It's unbelievable. It's just Kelsey. It's Kelsey and what? MVS?

Nothing? A little Sky Moore in there. It is really what? No running game? I mean, I wouldn't say that about last night, but amazing. All right, so we'll talk about that game a little bit with some fantasy takeaways. Nice to have Keenan Allen back, but unfortunately, Mike Williams leaves with the injury. Kadarius Tone, actually a lot of injuries yesterday.

We got the Broncos news as Melvin Gordon's been released, and Chase Edmonds is going to miss a few weeks. We've got our four big topics today, and they are as follows. Lamar Jackson. Everybody wants to know what we think about Lamar Jackson. Damian Pierce. Are we worried about Damian Pierce?

Najee Harris. And stacking in redraft leagues. Stacking. So let's talk about that in a bit. But right now, Chiefs 30, Chargers, 27 fantasy takeaways. What do you got? Uh, Sky Moore. I, I love to see Sky Moore out there. He, um, he drew a target on 37% of his routes run, which is really exciting because he, um, it was a small sample size, but he had not drawn targets at a high rate to start the season.

But we did see him, you know, really involved. And especially once Kedarious Tony went down, he was out there for 9 of 15 dropbacks in the second half at a 27% target share. So on the year, his rates are looking decent. So I think if you're a Dynasty player, you can kind of breathe a sigh of relief. I think it was a pretty troubling start for Sky, who a lot of people were really excited for um pacheco looked great the workload was there i didn't know if if we the chiefs are kind of finicky you know andy reed sometimes and he even said like it might not be the same usage we saw last week in terms of like where clyde was but yeah seems like clyde edwards hilarious totally phased out and it's Pacheco's backfield and he looked good um I will say like almost all of his yardage came before contact uh he only broke one tackle the whole game or avoided one tackle um and he just like does not draw targets at all

he has by far the lowest target per run rate in the NFL of any running backs he's at three percent the next lowest is like ten percent wow it 10%. He just does not get targeted. It was the same thing in college. It's interesting because he's got a little bit of a runway here with Clyde Edwards-Ealer leaving with the ankle injury. We're talking about

16 carries for 82 yards for Pacheco last week, 15 carries for 107 yards this week. He's tough. I can't stand the players who catch no balls. I just can't. In full PPR leagues, what is

10.7 fantasy points? If he doesn't score, that's basically as good as he's going to get against the best matchup. I don't know how to value him. I guess he's a flex in full PPR and a number two in half or non-PPR. I guess that's what I would say. Yeah, I think that's right.

Yeah, Tony leads with a hamstring injury. He played about a quarter and was somewhat involved. And then he's got hamstring injuries. On the Chargers side, what do you think about Herbert if Keenan Allen's back made a great play for him downfield, but Mike Williams is out. Let's say Mike Williams misses time. We don't have any word on that,

but what would you think about Justin Herbert who scored 23 fantasy points last night? I think it's great to have Keenan Allen back. I think Herbert is somebody, I think I had him at QB seven this week and he's going to be in that range going forward, which is good. It was really rough for a while there.

Um, we had a question a couple of weeks ago, would you rather Herbert or Justin Fields rest of season? And it looked like fields is like the clear answer at that point. But I think we're feeling a little bit better now with those guys back. Now I'm like pretty good. And you think, Oh yeah.

Terrific. Um, yeah, I, I was very encouraged by Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer. I mean, Josh Palmer's played a lot of games with Mike Williams and without Keenan Allen, but I think he's much... I mean, there's no question.

He's much more like Mike Williams than he is Keenan Allen. He's an outside receiver. So based on what he's done when he's gotten eight or more targets which has been five or six games this year if mike williams is out and keenan allen and josh palmer are in i don't know that he's going to be that much worse than mike williams yeah i definitely wanted to talk about josh palmer because we are we've got a pretty large sample size now of him um running without mike williams and he's been freaking great uh obviously he was great last night but on the season 136 routes without mike williams he's been targeted

on 24 of his routes and average 1.8 yards per route run and so just for some context on those numbers um that's putting him in like for the season that's putting him in, for the season, that's putting him in Christian Kirk, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, Brandon Ayuk, Terry McLaurin territory. That's pretty freaking good. That's very good. That's much better than we saw as a rookie. It helps to play with Herbert. He definitely boosts efficiency.

But yeah, I've been really, really encouraged by Palmer. Yeah, I'll give you the more fantasy typical stats on Josh Palmer. He has played six games now with eight or more targets. He has scored 13 or more PPR fantasy points in five of those six games. And he scored 30 last night. He's got an 18.6, a 15.9, a 14.7. That's really good. So that's a number two wide receiver. Maybe he's not going to be6, a 15.9, a 14.7. That's really good. So that's a number two wide receiver.

Maybe he's not going to be quite as good as Mike Williams, but definitely if you didn't drop him, 69% rostered, so a lot of people did drop him. Understandably, I think, but it's time to go get Josh Ballmer again. All right, that's it for Chiefs and Chargers. Hope they play again. Freaking love watching those two quarterbacks play.

Just two of the most aesthetically pleasing passers. Yeah. Justin Herbert throws these frozen ropes, like 40 yards downfield. It's 60 yards. It's crazy. And then Mahomes is Mahomes. Fantasy Football Today is here to help you

dominate your fantasy league all season long. Now you can represent your favorite podcastomes. Fantasy Football Today is here to help you dominate your fantasy league all season long. Now you can represent your favorite podcast with official Fantasy Football Today gear only found on the CBS Sports Store. We've got the link in the episode description. So check it out. We've got t-shirts, mugs, sweatpants, laser engraved pint glasses, hats, water bottles, and much more to tell your friends how you kicked their butt in fantasy football. And we're giving you 20% off if you go to our store and use the code fantasyfootball20. So do that at checkout.

Fantasyfootball20, only available for our listeners. Head over to the CBS Sports Store or the Fantasy Football Today collection, basically. Link is in the episode description, or you can just Google it and use the code fantasyfootball20. So yeah, no Dan today. He's busy Thanksgiving week. Everybody's busy. You got a lot of stuff going on. He sends me a text that says, Hey Adam, would you hate and hate slash judge me if I left today's show to you and Jacob? This is a ridiculous question. Cause it's like, I already, I already hate and judge him, Jacob. Like, You know? What's going to change? So it's okay, Dan. You take your time.

You do your thing. And we'll carry on without him. So here's the tweet of the day, Jacob, from Matt Mormon. In my most important league, I have a player in each game Thursday. Diggs, Pollard, and Dalvin Cook. How do I game plan being able to watch all three games while also balancing family food and the inevitable thanksgiving nap oh man yeah that's tough i mean that's the question right like

that's what we're dealing with every thanksgiving and like i think the honest answer for most is you just don't yeah oh hey don't hang with the family oh i didn't think that's where you were going um yeah i don't know man what i especially with didn't think that's where you were going um yeah i don't know man what i especially with like the way he's got the players spread out among the games like that's gonna be really really tough there's no way that you're watching every second of every game there's just no way there there's a blind spot for me it's usually the end of the lions game which is typically a blowout at that point you know or you books at that point. But not so sure about the Lions. They're not bad.

But they are playing the Bills. But it's like the end of that game I often miss on Thanksgiving, which I don't love, but it happens. And then I might miss the beginning of the 8 o'clock, or the Ravens-Patriots game. Sorry, the Vikings-Patriots game. That's the Vikings Patriots game. That's where I was going to point him to as well. I know you got Dalvin, but that's probably the most

boring game. Patriots-Stevens is playing really well right now, just shutting people down. Just see how you're doing at that point. If you've had a bad football day already, maybe it's time to go see the family. Let that one go. I hope... I would not be part of a Thanksgiving

that wouldn't allow me to watch football. You know, if they were like, well, we turn the TV off when we eat. Happy Thanksgiving. I'll see you later. That's just not going to happen. I at least get to be like, oh, it's work. I got to watch. It's work. I can't miss it. But it actually happens to be a Giants game this year, so I get to watch them get their butt kicked with family and friends.

All right. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody in advance. News and notes. Justin Fields got the shoulder. Joe Mixon the concussion. Samaj P. Ryan 13% rostered. He's going to be the hottest waiver wire ad unless we find out that Mixon is going to play by Tuesday, which we almost certainly won't.

Clyde left with the ankle injury. Stafford concussion. The Commanders announced that Taylor Heineke is their starting quarterback rest of season. Carolina has not decided on a quarterback yet for this week. They are facing Denver. Good luck to the quarterback facing Denver, although Denver hasn't been quite as good since the Chubb trade. Cooper Cup is likely out six to eight weeks.

Mike Williams re-aggravated the ankle. Kyler Murray is not playing tonight, and he may not play next week, and then he's not going to play week 13 because he's not a buy. You may get Deshaun Watson before you get Kyler Murray. Murray may not play until week 14.

Hopkins is playing tonight. Marquise Brown is not. Justin Jefferson has turf toe. He said mild. They said mild turf toe. It wasn't supposed to affect him. Then he went out and had a stinker against Trayvon Diggs, who's playing lights out right now,

and the Cowboys, of course. Do you have any thoughts on that, on the turf toe? No. I missed who you said. I'm sorry. Oh, Justin Jefferson. You're watching the soccer game. It's okay.

I've got kyler in a lineup and i need to take him out oh okay okay i was talking about justin jefferson and his turf toe oh yeah yeah they said he's gonna be playing through pain and then like obviously he didn't look like himself out there um it's a tough matchup as well it's hard to tell um but definitely a little concerning yeah i didn't get a chance to watch all of the snaps but every time i saw a not every time maybe the first three quarters or so, Trayvon Diggs was on Justin Jefferson. Right.

And that's two weeks in a row that they've used Diggs to shadow, which is not typical. It was Lazard and then Jefferson, and he's just been freaking great. You know, he's got this reputation, Trayvon Diggs, of this cornerback who gives up a lot of big plays, but he's such a young player that that was last year. I mean, this year he might just be a stud. I don't think he's

going to shadow Darius Slayton, but if he does, let me know beforehand. He might. Who else is there to worry about on that team right now? Yeah, I just don't know that Slayton commands that, but he is obviously the best weapon.

Because, back to the news and notes, Wanda Robinson, he tore his ACL. He's out for the season. That really sucks. So sad. Yeah. He looked great. What else?

Kyle Pitts may have torn his MCL. Don't know if we're going to see him rest of the season. We'll keep an eye on that. Jamison Williams is eligible to return. So he will practice this week. I doubt he plays, but Jamison Williams, he's eligible now. He could be back very soon, maybe this week. Let's see.

Tony Hamstring, Baltimore left tackle. Ronnie Stanley left. They don't know the severity. Actually, John Harbaugh expressed some optimism about it, so that was good. Same with Gus Edwards. Same with Kyle Hamilton, their rookie safety. You're probably bored with the news and notes,

but Chase Edmonds has an ankle sprain, and Denver released Melvin Gordon. What do you think about Latavius Murray going forward? He's got the Panthers and the Ravens in his next two games. Yeah, I think he's... Honestly, I feel like I would prioritize him over Piran if he's available, don't you

think? He's not as widely available, but they're kind of committed to him at this point, it seems like. Well, Piran, if it's just a one-week thing, I would take Piran. My general view on concussions is the guy's going to miss one week. We were really getting a lot of guys

back without missing any weeks, but that was before the new protocols. Now, a guy like Juju who got really lit up, that might be worse. I didn't see the injury to Mixon, but I think P. Ryan's going to be better than Murray

this week, but I would definitely take Murray rest to be better than Murray this week, but I would definitely take Murray rest of season. Edmonds, you know, Edmonds too, when he comes back, he could have a role because they're throwing to their running backs a little bit, and I assume he'll take that role. I mean, they're arguably the worst offense in football, so second lowest scoring team. That's so crazy.

All right, let's get into some stats what are some stats you like jacob yeah we had a lot of interesting interesting stuff this week um i want to start with gabe davis he the results haven't been you know the typical huge explosive plays and so i think maybe it's flown under the radar a little bit but he has a target share of 24 or higher in three of the past four games, which is maybe a coincidence, but that's following their bye week. So before the week seven bye, he had a 13% target share and a 28% area yardage share. Since then, he has a 23% target share and a 36% area yardage share. This is something we've never seen. We've really never seen Davis demand targets at even like a 20% rate. That 13% is pretty typical for him.

And he's like way, way above that. So I think that's really exciting. Like, have you heard people talk about him much? He hasn't been like a popular guy. I debated him with Heath last night on the recap, and I wish you had been there because you could have supported me. So Heath was not, I was kind of enthused about Gabe Davis,

even though the numbers weren't great, because I think we've seen in the last two games a more well-rounded wide receiver, not a guy who's just reliant on one big play to make his game. He gets end zone targets, and this is now two is now one of the stats I was going to bring up. It's now two games in a row where Josh Allen has not attempted a pass of 30-plus air yards. I don't think that's a

coincidence with the elbow. It could be. Gabe Davis is going to have to produce in other ways, and he is. He was better than Diggs. I know Diggs caught the touchdown. He was better than Diggs yesterday. He had a really good game two weeks ago. He's doing it differently. I was pretty encouraged by that. I'm glad you're backing it up because you know he he's kind of said yeah he's he is what he has been but i i think we might be seeing a little

bit of an evolution here i think it's definitely possible gabe davis is somebody that like had some of the most pronounced improvement year over year at the college level of any receiver that i've studied in the past like five years like, like every single season, you got significantly better across the board. And that was the same thing from year one to year two at the NFL level. And obviously everyone was excited for him year three. He got hurt at the beginning of the year and he was playing through an injury. So it was like his per route rates look a lot worse than they maybe really

would. If he wasn't, um, I think there's definitely a reason for optimism. And he was also hurt at the beginning of this year, got hurt in the Rams game and played hurt a little bit. Is that what you were saying? Or were you saying a different?

Yeah. Oh, this year. I thought you meant in college. I'm sorry. I mixed up your statistics. By the way, just an update. 21 minutes of soccer so far. Unbelievably, no score.

I can't believe it. All right. What else? That's why I don't watch it. All right, what else? That's why I don't watch. What else do you want to talk about? Traylon Burks. Obviously, it was Thursday night, so it's already been talked about a little bit.

He has a target per route run rate of 35% or higher. This is per Dwayne McFarlane in three of his six games. The reason I bring that rate up is that is wide receiver one stuff. There are only a few guys that push for that type of a rate, and he's done it in half of his games. And he was somebody who did this at the collegiate level as well. And I think it just shows the type of upside

that he's in to potentially play the A.J. Brown role like we speculated on. It's been kind of a disjointed season for him, but really exciting what we saw from him last week. He's only 28% rostered. So between him and Pirine, you're going to get major boosts. In some leagues, they'll have Palmer too.

Would you rather have Josh Palmer or Traylon Burks? That's really tough, because we don't know what the extent of Mike Williams' injury is. I think I would take Palmer, but I'm really excited about Berks. I just, there's, the offense is so anemic the passing game. Um, it was good last week, but like, I think more often than not, the volume is not going to be there for Berks, um,

or for the offense as a whole, the passing offense. And it's also worth noting that he still was third on the team in routes run last week. Um, on that point alec pierce had a um had a spike in routes around this week and that's pretty exciting again not a great offense but he ran more routes than paris campbell that was the first time all season i led the colts with eight targets and he had the ninth highest air yardage share in the nfl so it's i don't know how relevant he's going to be this, this year. Cause like,

even with these great rates this week, he sucked for fantasy. Um, but like for dynasty or just going forward in general, like this is pretty exciting for Pierce. He's not somebody who I expected to draw targets at a high rate, especially given the deeper outs that he's running and the way that Matt Ryan operates the offense right now.

Like I just thought he would kind of get ignored and just be a field stretcher that opens things up for Campbell and Michael Pittman. But he led the team in targets, and he has pretty strong per-route rates on the year. Yeah, a couple things. Matt Ryan, once again, 5.9 air yards per pass attempt. So that's incredibly low, and he continues to be.

So I was surprised that Pierce had the role he had. And the other thing is nobody gave me credit for this last night, and I suppose I understand why, but I predicted an outright win for the Colts and they only lost by one. Do I get any credit for that? Yeah, that's impressive. I thought they were going to get butt-raised. Everybody did.

Not me. Not me. Thank you. Thank you, Jacob. Appreciate your support uh all right what else you got what's next pat fryer move man 30 target share 32 heritage share in the two games uh since chase claypool has been traded and his per route rates have been really really good all year he just like has been injured and like not able to put it together but like i think he's starting to build some momentum here i think he could be like a top five or six tight end like and he's somebody who got dropped in a lot of places you might still be able to trade for him um fairly cheap so i'm pretty excited

about him and he's so young um and there's a lot of promise there and then the other one was remandre stevenson remandre is the rb 13 on a week where he had 26 rushing yards and no touchdowns and it's just because of what he's been doing as a receiver he has a target share above 20 percent four straight games which i haven't had the chance to go back and look but i there might not be any running back who has done that in four straight games all year other than him that's really impressive um and like on the year his ability to draw targets is just below like the alvin camara christian mcafree type of guys, and above DeAndre Swift, like some of those, like Saquon Barkley for sure.

It's really been an encouraging year for him. And he's had some brutal matchups too, but he's remained fantasy relevant because of his ability to contribute in the passing game. Yeah, it's pretty excellent what's going on with Ramondre Stevenson. Ty Montgomery out for the year, so you don't have to worry about that. And he has certainly become a must-start running back. All right. You good?

Should I go through some stats? Or did you have more that you'd like to share? No, you got some. I want to hear them. All right. Here we go. You know, like Alvin Kamara, he never scores. He scored three touchdowns against the Raiders, and that's it.

Since he returned from injury in Week 5, the Saints have run six plays from inside the five-yard line in seven games. That is the third fewest in the NFL, ahead of only Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but Alvin Kamara has been in on all six of them. So if they could just get the ball inside the five-yard line, then maybe you'll get some more touchdowns from Kamara, although don't discount Taysom Hill. Dave and Heath were talking about Baltimore. Heath's concern for Josh Allen was that Sean McDermott a couple weeks ago said he wanted to run the ball more. Of course, you have the elbow injury, and they have been running the ball more,

and they've been running the ball more inside the red zone. It was something that Dave and Heath talked about last night. I just thought worth bringing up again. They've been a lot more run heavy in the red zone the last two games than they were before the Josh Allen injury. David Njoku played only 37% of the snaps. And so you don't have to panic about him if you bought into him. Harrison Bryant and Farrell Brown, they combined for three almost touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor is dominating third down snaps since the naeem hines trade

you know it's spectacular and michael carter what do you make of this michael carter played 14 more snaps than james robinson 25 to 11 and it wasn't you know there was no game script it was just a back and forth close game until the punt return uh so i thought that was interesting when they they were pretty split last week or you know last game for them before they're by yeah i'm afraid robinson might be done um or at least done in the short term he really doesn't look explosive he's had some of the worst um underlying rushing metrics all year and this is you know back-to-back teams and situations now where the team seemed invested in them.

And the more they see them, they're kind of like, I don't know about this. They start to go, you know, like they start to go away from them. And like they're getting Ty Johnson involved. That's like I'm just staying away from that backfield as a whole. Like because Ty Johnson, it's a three-man backfield on a bad team. It's tough. I think you can cut bait with Robinson. All right.

Well, then we'll take a break. Anything else? I don't want to cut you off. I know you have so much stuff. You've been, you know, this is your thing. So if you have any more to share,

that's fine. If not, we'll go to our big topics. No, I think we're good with these. All right. I'm just used to Dan, you know,

yapping and right. I miss him. All right. We'll take a break. Then when we come back, what is wrong with Lamar Jackson? We'll try to solve that puzzle after this on Fantasy Football today. Update.

28 minutes of soccer, no score. Okay. It's been really exciting, though. That's a joke. But I'm into it. Why are you not into the World Cup? It's the World Cup. We actually have some good players.

A lot of them are from, like, right around where I live. It's kind of weird. Or sort of northeast. And, you know, we got another Reina, another generation of the Reinas. We've got Pulisic. Come on, Jacob. I can name a few players. I cannot name any, unfortunately. I want to go to a soccer game and experience it live. I think it would be a lot more entertaining. I have a very short attention span, and I find myself really struggling to watch soccer. I don't know. Anytime it's on, I just seem to

want to do anything other than that. It's pretty great to have a sport with 45 minutes of no commercials. Yeah, that's true. You got to give soccer that. I don't want to be negative about soccer. I don't know it doesn't seem like it's for me well i'll tell you i mean the world cup's great and all and a lot of

people are super into it i will not watch a single game that's that's not a u.s game maybe the final but i couldn't care less other than other than usa but for those of you watching live thank you for you know making the choice to watch us you you know, and soccer at the same time. All right, four big topics. Number one is what is wrong with Lamar Jackson? This is from everyone in the world. So, yeah, what are your theories? What's going on with Lamar Jackson?

He has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. I'll let you have the first word. I just want to say he was dealing with an illness for most of the week. He probably was not 100% in this game, but it is certainly more than a one week thing. What do you think? Yeah. So I dug into this a little bit more. Um, and there are a few things, um, to take away that are, you know, pretty obvious differences from the years past. Um, the first thing is he's being blitzed way way more often than we've ever seen before uh he's been blitzed on 44 of his dropbacks it's he's never had a rate above 31 in a season before the next highest rate of any quarterback is jared goff at 37 him and ryan

tannell are the only two that are even above 35 lamar's all the way up to 44. Um, that's the league average is 26%. Like that's insane. Um, like the giants blitz the most in the NFL at 40%. So it's, he, it's like, he's playing the most blitz heavy team every single week. It's crazy. I noticed that too. Number one blitz rate or against in the NFL. Yeah. Um, and so there's that. And then also he's, he's really struggling with the deep ball and this has, and the blitzing, I wanted to make and then also he's he's really struggling with the deep ball and this has and and the blitzing i i wanted to make the point that he's been significantly below the league average in terms of pass rating completion percentage yards per attempt um when blitzed and then when not blitz he's been above the league average um so i think it's it's possible people

might be like figuring him out um i don't know why that would have taken this long because like he's been bad against the blitz the whole time um but like that that's definitely bothering him and then he's really struggling with the deep ball uh this also has always been a problem for lamar but it's even worse this year his off target rate on deep passes is the worst it's ever been and recently he's just stopped throwing deep um he had an average depth of target of nine yards or higher in five of six games to start the season over his past five games is eight out as 5.5, 5.8,

9.9 and 4.5 yards this week. He only had two passes that traveled 15 or more air yards this week. Yeah. Like Matt Ryan was much better in this regard than Lamar Jackson. Better is not the right word, but Lamar Jackson or Matt Ryan was throwing the ball downfield on average more than Lamar Jackson was.

Which is crazy. Right, exactly. I thought maybe it was Mark Andrews being out was contributing to this, but Andrews' bat five-yard average up the target, that's really wild. He's running a lot. So for fantasy, like you're not, you know, completely screwed by this, but the offense looks bad right now.

Um, and he really doesn't have, I mean, when DeMarcus Robinson is like your go-to target, he has been lately. That's definitely a problem. DeMarcus Robinson does not separate. Um, yeah, I, I, what do you, what do you, well, you basically stole everything I was going to say. Uh, yeah, he's not throwing the ball. Look, if you wanted to sum it up in what, in one sentence, what's wrong with Lamar Jackson, his passing numbers stink and right. He's still running. He's not running quite as much. He does have a career high yards per carry. He's still running, you know, as much as anybody not named Justin Fields. So that's not the issue. Have they figured him out? I mean, I was reading this on Ravens,

BaltimoreRavens.com, but it was a quote from the Baltimore Sun. Carolina took a familiar approach to slow the Ravens, cutting off outside running lanes, using their safeties to clog the middle and always remaining alert to potential Jackson scrambles. They dared Jackson to beat them outside the numbers, and though he was successful connecting with wide receiver Demarcus Robinson, the offense never flowed for long. Yeah. Right, and so that makes sense. And I watched every play, every Lamar Jackson play. I didn't watch the handoffs or anything.

But Carolina did a great job. They really did. I felt like the way they were rushing him was containing him in the pocket and trying to make him a passer as much as possible. He was really bad early and then he got better later.

That's just one game breaking down. I think what's concerning is there's so many damn excuses for Lamar Jackson. He's always among the leaders in off-target percentage, I think. You know, he's just, it's kind of a subjective stat, but he's off-target a lot.

And I can usually explain it away. Well, he's a downfield thrower, but not this year. He's still off-target a lot. In fact, in his last, let me see, where's this stat? In his last four games, he has the fourth lowest ADOT

or intended area yards per pass attempt of any quarterback. And yet he's only 15th in completion rate and he has the ninth highest off target rate. So you should have a high completion rate with a low ADOT. He does not, right? He's really struggling.

Maybe it's his receiver's fault. I don't know, but he's not playing well enough. And then that begs the question, is he still a must start? I have so much trouble sitting a guy who has 40 point upside. I know he still has it, but you know, I'd rather have Burrow. If Fields is healthy, I think I'd rather just have Fields. I'd rather have Tua. I don't think I'd rather have Aaron Rodgers, even though I'm encouraged by Rodgers, really Watson and Rodgers, like Christian Watson.

So I, you know, he's, Jacob, I think he's still a must-start guy, but in a normal year, he might not be. Yeah. No, I think you definitely have to start him. Jacksonville coming up, then Denver, you know, if he doesn't play well against Jacksonville,

people might sit him against Denver. All right, next up, Sean Millerick. What are your Damian Pierce worries? Damian Pierce, 10 carries for eight yards, two catches for nine yards against Washington. And now I'll just tell you, the last four games, Washington has held Jonathan Taylor to 5.6 PPR fantasy points. Dalvin Cook

had a receiving touchdown that got him to 13.6 PPR fantasy points. Miles Sanders, 5.4 PPR points, and Damian Pierce, 3.7. But what do you think? Oh, go! Go!

We got one? Yes! You love this, dude. Let's go! We got one? Yes! All right! You love this, too. Yes! Let's go! Woo! All right. Okay, sorry. What are your thoughts on Damian Pierce?

I am not too concerned. The underlying usage was still really good this week. 78% snap rate was fourth among running backs, 55% route involvement. We've seen him more involved as a route runner lately. That was 12th among running backs this week 78 snap rate was fourth among running backs 55 percent route involvement we've seen him more involved as a route runner lately that was 12th among running backs this week um the matchup against washington is really brutal they're very good against the run and he's got a couple matchups coming up that are easier um but after that he faces dallas and then in the fantasy championship he faces the titans who are similar to washington um and that they're

much better against the run than the pass. Um, I think that might be first and rushed even Stevie away. They've been really, really stout against the run. Who's this Tennessee. Oh, Tennessee.

Oh my gosh. Their whole defense is playing terrific, but yeah, they're so good against the run. So that's, that's pretty brutal to like close out the season. Uh, so I,

I don't know if you want to trade him, if he like goes nuts against the Browns and you want to trade him, if he goes nuts against the Browns and you want to trade him after that, I guess it could make some sense. But I'm not worried about the role. Do you worry about Benjamin taking passing down from him or anything? Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but his catches don't really come on passing downs, right? He's not really playing on third down much as a pass catcher, right?

I mean, he's catching balls on first and second down. He's been playing a little bit more on the passing downs lately. But no, he's been targeted at a high rate on first and second down for sure. No, I guess I'm not really worried about that. You know, look, this is just like who we're about to talk about, Najee Harris.

This is a running back on a bad offense. I think you can have a little hope for the Steelers offense to find something in the second half like they may have yesterday, and that could help Najee Harris, this is a running back on a bad offense. I think you can have a little hope for the Steelers offense to find something in the second half like they may have yesterday, and that could help Najee. That's not going to happen with the Texans most likely. They're the second lowest scoring team in football. So am I worried about him?

Well, I can get over this game. Washington is playing so well defensively, especially against the run. Two games ago against the Giants, he had a 44-yard carry. He averaged 3.1 yards per carry in the other 16 carries that he had. Now, that's a little unfair.

You could do that with a lot of running backs a lot of games. He had the big carry. And he has big play potential. But that was one issue that i was seeing with him is a little bit more more you know ineffective runs over the last two games heath wondered if he was hitting the rookie wall i don't think so i just i i think he'll bounce back but miami miami is um they allow the second fewest yards per carry to running backs. That's his next matchup.

Inconsistent, but overall second fewest yards per carry to running backs. I think he's still a high-end number two receiver, or running back. I'd certainly rather have him than Latavius Murray. I think I'd rather have him than Tony Pollard. I don't know. How about you?

I'd rather have Pollard. I think there's more How about you? I'd rather have Pollard. Yeah. I think there's more upside if, if Zeke re-aggravates it or anything. Sure. Um, if Zeke keeps playing, you know, that's, that's the question. Nope. I don't know if anybody has more upside than Tony Pollard right now if Zeke gets out. Yeah. If Zeke is playing and like we're projecting a healthy Zeke and Tony's workload compared to Pierce, he's probably going to project a little bit worse than Pierce on a week-to-week basis. But I think I would rather have Pollard at this point. All right.

Greg Hall wants to know, is this a renaissance or is a renaissance coming for Najee Harris? Najee Harris in his last two games, 20 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns last week, and he also had four catches or sorry, this past yesterday and 20 carries for 99 yards against the saints last week. So that's two straight 20 carry games.

I think the Jalen Warren injury is a huge deal. But what do you think is a Renaissance coming for Najee Harris? If Warren is going to miss extended time, which he definitely could, it's a hamstring, right? I think so. I think it's hamstring. If Warren's going to miss extended time, which he definitely could, it's a hamstring, right? I think so. I think it's hamstring.

If Warren's going to miss time, then it could be. I don't know if it'll be a full-blown renaissance. I mean, 96% snap rate, I think, or 93% snap rate. 84% route involvement rate this week. That was huge. I worried that it wouldn't be that high even with a Warren injury because he's been used as a pass blocker a lot more this year i think that has something to do with the difference in um play style from you know rothlisberger who's getting rid of it quick um versus picket

who really likes to hold the ball so they've been holding nausea into block a little bit more often but he had the highest round involvement rate of any running back in week 11 wow that's really exciting um there are some matchups coming up that he could take advantage of. They've got the Steelers, and then in the fantasy... They are the Steelers. They've got the Falcons. In the fantasy championship,

they've got the Raiders, and the week before that, they've got the Panthers, which is a decent matchup as well. In both games, they could be competitive and possibly control the game script as well. I think he's probably a top 15, top 18 running back going forward. And if Jalen Warren's out,

he might be like a top 12 guy. Yeah, I think I would kind of compare him to James Conner. If Jalen Warren's out, I don't think you're going to get a ton of efficiency. If anybody, I watched all of his carries each of the last two weeks. So if you just want to talk about this Bengals game, you probably saw the touchdown run, which was spectacular, hurtling a defender to get into the end zone. I think it was a 19-yard run. I feel that if you all watched every carry that Najee Harris had this past week against the Bengals, you really would not have been blown away.

He just, I don't know, man. I'm not saying he's slow but he's not he's not explosive I'm not saying he's slow but I'm not going to say he's fast I mean it's okay look Damian Pierce is not fast Damian Pierce ran a 4.640

but he makes big plays Najee Harris has made one this year basically and it came in week 10 he has one carry longer than 19 yards I I think. So he's still... I don't know.

Didn't really pass the eyeball test, but that's not everything. Here's an encouraging stat, though, from Najee Harris. In his first nine weeks of the season, weeks one through nine, I did a simple minimum of five carries per game, so all running backs with a minimum of 45 carries.

He was dead last in percentage of carries that went for five or more yards. Something like 25%. Over the last two games, it's something like 44%. He ranks pretty high. So he's got a lot fewer crappy runs. So that's good. And it came after a bye. and maybe the foot is healthy. So it is possible that something is there. But to me, if Jalen Warren plays,

then I wouldn't be all that jazzed about Najee Harris. The key is the passing game role to me. And it seems like you feel that way. Yeah. I don't think we've disagreed on anything today. Yeah. We need Dan, man. Yeah, I know. Right. Like Dan. yeah i don't think we've disagreed on anything today yeah we need dan man yeah i know right like um uh what's the youtube poll today how will the oh how will the usa do in the world cup losing the group stage round of 16 eight or better and i don't care well this one will this one will disagree on i'm gonna say round of 16. Oh, wow. What are you going to say? I guess I'll say I don't care. I hate to keep being so negative about it,

but I do want to disagree with you for once. So yeah, I don't care. Yeah, and I don't care is running away with it. 40% of the vote. That's surprising. Although I guess if you're listening to fantasy football on Tuesday afternoon, instead of watching the World Cup, then you probably don't care.

Yeah, we only care about our football. Alright, this last one is from Jmart. Is there a better stack in fantasy than Mahomes and Kelsey? I've been in first place with those two in my lineup. Seems worth it to go after the stack of a high-caliber quarterback and their go-to

guy in drafts or trade. Yeah, I mean, obviously Kelsey and Mahomes are the best. You got number one quarterback, number one tight end and neither position is deep this year. Um, but in general, you know,

does this open up your eyes to stacking a little bit more? Does this make you more likely to do it? I love stacking. Yeah. I, especially if you're obviously playing best ball. Um, but even just for season lock teams,

like he's talking about here, it gives you huge upside and when your stack hits like mahomes and kelsey obviously have this year connected on so many touchdowns um you're the best team like that's and i a couple stacks that i would mention that i think actually have more upside than mahomes and kelsey i think we've basically seen the near absolute top range of kelsey's outcomes in terms of his efficiency yeah um but like some players we haven't necessarily seen that from that do bring like absolutely massive upside of instax or josh allen and stefan diggs probably the top um jaylen hurts aj brown and then lamar and mark andrews i can't quit yeah i don't know if I want to be in on that one.

You want a sneaky one? How about Derek Carr and Devontae Adams? Derek Carr is just only throwing to Devontae Adams. Yeah, it's so concentrated there. Yeah, for sure. And Carr's got a few good games in a row and their defense is bad. But stacks are interesting.

Stacks are fun. I mean, I think if Jamar Chase comes back and he's Jamar Chase, I'm not sure he will be because he's on crutches last week, but if he comes back and he's Jamar Chase, McBurrow and Chase could definitely win you a league. And it's just funny how it works out. You build your roster through

the draft and it's very conceivable that two players could carry you to a championship. If you had Cooper Cup last year, it's very conceivable that Cooper Cup alone carry you to a championship. If you had Cooper cup last year, it's very conceivable that Cooper cup alone carried you to a championship. Yeah. You know, it's just, it's all,

uh, it's, it's interesting. It's interesting. Yeah. Any of these pairings can go for like 70 points and that just completely changes things when they're projected for like 40 combined or whatever. Like it's,

no, it's kind of cheating and you can get the double dipping on any given weekend. It's just like, well, how about, yeah, it's kind of cheating and you can get the double dipping on any given week and it's just like, well, how about Tua and Tyreek? Yes,

yeah, good call. They're like, not in my mind because they're on buy this week, but yeah, I've been stacking

Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle and DFS every single week, like, and especially because their defense

is so bad, they just, against the pass, they get into shootouts all the time. Yeah, they're cheat codes for sure.

It's a beautiful thing. All right, that's going to do it for fantasy football today. Thank you very much, everybody, for watching and listening. Enjoy the rest of the European football game, and we'll talk to you tomorrow with the Waiver Wire. It's going to be a busy Waiver Wire show for Jacob and Schaefer and definitely not for Dan. I'm Adam.