Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Michael Carter, Colts/Bucs Offense, D.J. Moore (10/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 24, 2022

We recap Steelers-Dolphins (2:00) to start the show! Raheem Mostert or Najee Harris rest of season? Buy high on Jaylen Waddle! Who is the best Steelers wide receiver going forward? Then we give our thoughts on Halloween Ends without spoiling it (9:30) and we'll take you through the big news (12:30) as Breece Hall is out for the season and the Colts and Panthers have made quarterback decisions! ... Some stats to know (16:00) on Travis Etienne, Greg Dulcich and the Panthers running backs. Then we've got our Five Big Topics beginning with the Bucs offense (22:40). What the heck is going on here? Is it a Chris Godwin problem? ... Is D.J. Moore back to being reliable (29:40)? How do we feel about Michael Carter and D'Onta Foreman rest of season (33:45)? What's the outlook for Jonathan Taylor with a new QB (39:50)? Who are some injury replacements to consider on the waiver wire (43:10)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. And welcome to a Monday afternoon podcast here, recapping week seven beyond the box score. Give you some advanced stats and things like that. Actually, it's going to be a little less statty than usual. It's going to be a cooler show today. I got rid of those dorks and replaced them with, don't tell them I said that, with Frank Stample.

I'm out of A's with Frank Stample. No Jacob Gibbs today. No Dan Schneier today. I do miss them. They are both making fun of me on Twitter for not believing in Wanda Robinson. Frank is too nice to do that. Welcome, Frank Stample. How's it going?

Yo, Adam. What's going on, man? Obviously, a mixed bag this time of year. Our Yankees are done. The season is over. But the Jets and Giants look really good. I'm sure people don't care about our fandom that much, but yes, it's a mixed bag this time

of year. Yeah, unfortunately, I think the Jets are about to really suffer. He's their best player. He's their best player. He's out for the year. It's such a shame. We're going to talk about Michael Carter in a little bit. I feel like I'm getting a little nervous about Michael Carter just looking at some of the

things. Look at the schedule. Patriots, Bills, bye Patriots in the next four weeks. I'm not sure what you're going to get from him there, but we'll talk about that a little bit later. We also have the couple quarterback situations. P.J. Walker is going to remain the starter this upcoming week regardless of the

statuses of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. And Sam Ellinger is going to be the starter maybe going forward. Matt Ryan's got a shoulder strain, but it doesn't matter. They were going to start Sam Ellinger anyway, so that's for the Colts. So we're going to talk about that right now.

First, well, not right now. First, let's talk about last night's game, the Steelers and the Dolphins. And the beginning of that game, the first quarter, you're like, wow, the Dolphins are going to win 30 to three. And it ended up being 16 to 10. I don't know how they didn't score more points, but what were your major takeaways from Miami 16, Pittsburgh 10? Yeah, this was a weird game. 13 points in the first quarter for the Dolphins. They only scored three after that. Both of the teams combined for zero points scored in the second half.

So combination of good defense, I think bad offense as well. Did want to highlight some of the Dolphins players here in this spot. Raheem Mostert over the last four weeks, 68% of the snaps. He's averaging 17.8 touches per game, and he's the RB 19 in points per game during that time. So he's just kind of locked in as a top 24 running back. As long as he's, as long as he has this role in a really good offense for the Miami

dolphins. And speaking of the dolphins, those pass catchers, I think it's a good time to, I don't know how realistic it is by high on a Jalen Waddle, because in the games that he has played with Tua as the quarterback and the games that Tua has started and finished. So weeks one,

two, three, and seven Waddle has actually outproduced Tyreek Hill in those weeks. He has more PPR points total in those games, more air yards, slightly less target share, but he's been more productive. So I think you're like both like top five wide receivers in the games that

that Tua has started and finished. But if there is an opportunity to buy high on a Jalen Waddell, I would look into doing that. Okay, I got those four games. I have... Wait, those are one, two, three, and seven? Yes. All right, so I've got Hill with 25, 29, 42 targets.

And Waddle with 35 targets, but 19 of them came in one game. So he's had five, 19, six, and five targets. He's actually got five games out of seven with four to six targets. It's really weird. They're both top 10

wide receivers per game. Tyreek Hill's top six. Jalen Waddle is top 10, right around 10th.reek Hill's top 6. Jalen Waddell is top 10. Right around 10th. But Hill has 78 targets. Waddell has 54 targets. Waddell's averaging about 5 more yards per catch than Tyreek Hill. But, man, I don't know. I look at the targets and Tyreek Hill

has the most targets in football. He might have the most catches. I don't think this is a bad thing for Tyreek Hill. I think they're just both going to be awesome. It was more so just if you can buy Jalen Waddell because people don't realize how good he's been in the games with Tua. I know it's obviously a standout with those 19 targets,

but regardless, in those four games, Jalen Waddell leads the team in air yards. 45% of their air yards, actually more than Tyree Kill in those spots. It's led to more PPR points. And again, if someone doesn't trust Waddle as like a top 12 wide receiver, I would be looking to buy.

Yeah. He's been on, he's been really good and he is really good. And I, that's why I thought two could have a really big game. He had 17.9 fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues. It's not like he was bad. Uh,

he leads the NFL to a leads the NFL in yards per attempt. Number two, three, and four on that list are Josh Allen, Patrick Holmes, and Jalen Hurts. So that's not a shock because I'm pretty sure Jimmy Garoppolo led in yards per attempt last year. This is just what that style of offense does. I'm still optimistic about Tua.

I don't think he's a great player. You know, I kind of see his limitations a little bit. Everything is over the middle, over the middle, up the seams, in the middle of the field. And eventually you make a mistake and they jump around and they should have had a couple of interceptions and they dropped a couple interceptions, whatever. But it's my faith in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. I still like Tua quite a bit, Frank. Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston are his next four games with a buy in there. How do you feel about him? I think given the weapons that he has here, he's probably locked

in as a low end starting quarterback, right? Like I'd rather have him over. I mean, it's probably obvious, but like Russell Wilson at this point, like Russell Wilson's probably borderline droppable. Um, how about Rogers and Brady? Yeah, I was going to get to Brady next. I know we're going to talk about him a little bit later on. I do think there has to be some kind of positive regression coming for Tom Brady at some point. His touchdown percentage is just so bad this year. It's literally half of what his career mark is. I would take Tua over Rodgers. I think I would still take Brady over Tua, though.

I would. Right in that conversation. How about Prescott? I think I'm going Tua over Dak. I think so, though. They're right in that conversation. How about Prescott? I think I'm going two over Dak. I think so, too. I think overall the weapons are better for the Dolphins than they are for the Cowboys. Much better. And the Cowboys

second best scoring defense in football. And they did just lose Jordan Lewis for the season starting cornerback. But yeah, I mean, he threw it 25 times in that game yesterday, Dak Prescott. Let's turn it over to the Steelers. Would you rather have Najee Harris, who, to his credit, has scored double-digit PPR fantasy points

in five of seven games, but he has not had more than 13.9 this year in a game, PPR, Najee Harris or Raheem Mostert? Oh, jeez. I guess I would go with Raheem Mostert, right? Based on what I said earlier on, he's top 20 running back in points per game over the past four weeks

where they really just turned it over to him, averaging nearly 18 touches per game in those games. And Najee Harris, he's still getting work. He's just so, so inefficient. The Steelers' offense is quite bad right now. And I don't really see how it's going to get much better for Najee Harris, at least in terms of efficiency. So workload will be there. I think they're kind of both in that low end RB two range, but give me the running back on the better offense right now. And that's for him.

He just looks slow or something. I know he's not exactly a burner. He's a bigger guy, but 3.3 yards per carry right now. Najee Harris is the number 33 running back in non-PPR, number 26 in full PPR. I think that's per game. And he's got a lot. I mean, this is what concerns me. He's 100 carries and none of them are longer than 16 yards. Now, maybe he'll have more touchdowns because there's 10 running backs with 100 or more carries and three of them have fewer than three rushing touchdowns. He's one of them.

Fournette and Mixon are the other two. But, you know, I trust Fournette and Mixon to score touchdowns a lot more than I trust Najee Harris. Just their offense isn't as good. I thought Pickett looked pretty good last night, though, especially in the end. The interception he threw to lose the game was bad, but gave you some hope.

He threw for 257 yards and a touchdown. George Pickens, really nice play. And all right, that's yeah. Who's your favorite? Who's your favorite Stegors wide receiver rest of season? I think if you trust the process, it still has to be Deontay Johnson, right? I was looking into the numbers in the two games that Kenny Pickett has started and finished. Deontay Johnson still leads the team with a 25% target share. He's got 23 targets overall in those two games, has seen 43% of the air yards.

This is just an absolute massive number. So I think based on the process, it still has to be Deontay Johnson, but I can't fault people for being upset with the production or lack thereof that, that Deontay Johnson is giving you right now. So I think he's more of a low-end wide receiver two, high-end wide receiver three.

Based on volume, probably not going to score all that much, but I do think there's going to be a lot of targets and receptions there. Second, I would still go with George Pickens. Hopefully they trade Chase Claypool, and we just get an even more condensed target share, which would obviously help the remainder of the Steelers pass catchers. All right, so we do have a YouTube poll up right now, courtesy of Thomas Schaefer.

And I don't know if I should read it because it's not a spoiler. If you haven't seen something, Frank, let's say there's a movie or a TV show you want to watch, do you want to know how other people feel about it or does that kind of spoil things for you? No, I think that's fine. I think knowing the overall feel for the movie, opinions of it, without actually the overall feel for the movie, opinions of it,

without actually knowing what happens in the movie, because I hate knowing the actual spoilers that happen within a movie or a show before watching it, I think that's fine. Just because you hate something doesn't mean that I'll hate it and vice versa. So yeah, I think it's fine. So this is going to give away

how everybody feels about the movie, for those of you who haven't seen Halloween Ends. If you're wanting to see Halloween Ends, just fast forward about a minute from right now. No joke. But the poll on YouTube is Halloween Ends was A, terrible, B, awful, C, a disgrace, and D, the worst thing I've ever seen. I'm going to go with awful.

Terrible was winning at 42%, followed by the worst thing I've ever seen. I'm going to go with awful. Terrible is winning at 42%, followed by the worst thing I've ever seen, and then awful and disgrace are tied at 18%. But it was pretty bad. It was bad. It was pretty bad. What do you think ranks higher on the bad-o-meter? Is it terrible or awful?

Which one is worse? I think terrible's worse. All right, so I'm going to go with terrible. 42% of the vote. I don't look. Disgrace and the worst thing I've ever seen. I can't think off the top of my head, but there has to be something worse.

The second one was worse. The second one was worse. That crazy scene in the hospital where everybody's rioting and that guy dies for no reason i think right if i recall with a homeless guy or a crazy guy it was the first one of this new trilogy wasn't so bad though it was great i was shocked i loved it it was great and then it just got so bad yeah it's really really disappointing i i hope that the title is true i hope halloween ends i really hope they

don't do another one. Just please, please end the franchise. And you know what? The biggest winner in week seven, the biggest winner was Peacock. Congratulations. You got my $5. Now I'm canceling. You hooked me. But if there's another Halloween, I'm not sure you're getting another $5 from me. All right. Let's promote. It's time to dominate your fantasy league with our podcast, and it's time to rep us. Go to the CBS Sports Store. We've got T-shirts, mugs, sweatpants, laser-engraved pint glasses, hats, water bottles, and more to remind your buddies how you got the inside scoop to crush the competition.

So go to the merch store, the CBS Store, and there's a lot of FFT branded things. And we can give you a 20% discount on your first purchase if you use our promo code fantasyfootball20. It's only for our listeners. I'm not going to give you the URL, but just type in CBS Sports Store Fantasy Football Today on Bing or whatever search engine you're using. And the promo code is FantasyFootball20 for 20% off. FantasyFootball20. Again, just type in CBS Sports Store Fantasy Football today

and you'll see the collection. So here are your news and notes. Brees Hall has a torn ACL. He's out for the year. And we're going to talk about Michael Carter in a little bit. Amonra St. Brown, concussion. Mike Williams has an ankle injury. They're going into their bye, but he's not guaranteed to be back after the bye. And you should really look at Josh Palmer

again, because he's shown that, no, he's not going to be great every week, but he's shown that he can be good sometimes. And had a concussion. He missed this game. I assume he'll be back after the bye week. Russell Wilson could play next week. DK Metcalf has a patella injury. No structural damage or anything like that. No ACL. They did not give a timeline, but they were pleased with the report on DK Metcalf. They've got three more weeks before their bye. Giants,

then Cardinals, then Bucs. Oh my. TJ Hawkinson left in the third quarter. David Njoku. David Njoku's out two to five weeks. Been one of the best tight ends in football for the last four weeks.oku's out two to five weeks. Been one of the best tight ends in football for the last four weeks. He's out two to five weeks. They have the Bengals coming up.

Ryan Tannehill left in the third quarter and hope to play in week eight. P.J. Walker starting. Sam Ellinger starting for the Colts. We're going to talk about Jonathan Taylor. He's one of our big topics. That's coming up later. We'll have to talk about the whole offense now.

Chuba Hubbard. They've been downplaying the injury, but Steve Wilk says he wants to see what Chuba Hubbard looks like on Wednesday. So we'll call him questionable for this week's game at Atlanta. Lazard, Alan Lazard has a shoulder injury. Aaron Rodgers said that other than Lazard and Aaron Jones, there are too many mental mistakes from the Packers. So those are the two guys he trusts. You got Corey Davis with a knee injury.

Denzel Mims left with an injury. The Jets had a brutal day. And Elijah Vera Tucker, their starting guard, left as well. Nico Collins' injury. And then the Giants had kind of a rough day too. They lost two starting offensive linemen. Evan Neal's probably going to miss at least a month, their right tackle. And Daniel Bellinger might need surgery on his eye, so he could be out a while.

And Wanda Robinson is banged up as well. We are going to take a break. When we come back, we'll look at some stats. We don't have as many today as we usually do because Dan and Jacob are not here. And then we'll get into our five big topics, the Bucs offense, DJ Moore, Michael Carter and Deontay Foreman, Jonathan Taylor, and some injury replacements.

We'll talk to you right after this break on Fantasy Football today. All right, we've got advanced stats for you, snap shares, those types of things. I really don't have much this week, but Frank might. Frank, can you save our segment? Potentially.

I do have two players I wanted to highlight here. The first one being Travis Etienne, who obviously put it together, had a breakout game in week seven. He posted season highs in snap percentage, played 80% of the snaps, carries with 14 rushing yards, 114. He tied a season high with five targets, also tied a season high with four red zone opportunities in week seven.

And he is second among running backs in breakaway percentage at 51.6%, which is a stat that's on PFF. And it's the percentage of your rushing yards that are considered breakaway runs. So 15 plus yard runs. How much does that make up your overall rushing total for the season? And ETN is second in that category. So he's obviously extremely explosive and i think the

jaguars are finally figuring that out and they're putting him out on the field more and they're you know they're they're being uh rewarded for trusting him so i do think that he can be in the like high-end rb2 conversation moving forward for travis etn the other one i wanted to highlight is uh greg dulcich. I know Dulcich Deleche. Dulcich Deleche. Yes, yes. Solid team name. Got to give it to you there.

Thank you. 64% of the snaps the past two weeks, a 17% target share, and he has run a route on 74% of the Broncos dropbacks during that time. So we could have another, you know, whatever you want to call a fantasy viable tight end, a streaming tight end, someone that you could pick up off your waiver wire. I think he could be in that conversation. He was a pass catcher in college.

They use a third or fourth round pick a mid round pick on Dulcich this past offseason. And I think he's going to be involved moving forward. So I do kind of like him as a streamer, someone to pick up and to use moving forward. So not as many, but Dulcich and ETN, Arrow trending up for both. Yeah, all right. So ETN, we got to talk about this because I didn't see this quote before our show last night, but James Robinson, apparently it was not healthy.

He's got some injury and Doug Peterson was saying, you know, basically we didn't want to throw him out there all that much with an injury. I don't know what he's referring to exactly. I don't know if it's part of the recovery from the Achilles, but, you know, that was obviously a big reason why Etienne got so much work and James Robinson did not have a touch in the game. Having said that, Etienne has just been a lot better,

I think, especially lately. The only issue is fumbles, drop passes, those types of things. So as long as he doesn't fumble, obviously the arrow is pointing up, but just the fact that he completely dominated touches was injury related to a degree for Travis ETN. I have some updates here just coming in. Russell Wilson's day-to-day, he's trending in the right direction. That's what Nathaniel Hackett said. He also said that Cam Fleming, offensive tackle, Mike Boone, they're running back, and linebacker Baron Browning are all going to miss some time. And good news, not Broncos news, good Lions news.

Amonra St. Brown is out. He did not have a concussion. He's still in the protocol, but he didn't have a concussion. So it looks like Amonra St. Brown will be able to play in week eight, as of right now. Other things I noted, Chuba Hubbard and Deontay Foreman, they basically ran the same amount of routes. Hubbard was the third down back, though.

And in the fourth quarter, when they had their lead, when the first three quarters, Hubbard and Foreman combined for 12 carries. In the fourth quarter, they combined for 12 carries. And 11 of those were Deontay Foreman's. So, I mean, to me, that's a red alert. They are not going to be in positive game scripts nearly that much, especially Foreman, but I think we'll have a question about him later. I was very disappointed with Josh Reynolds. I don't know if he was hurt or not, but he played 80% of the snaps

and had a huge dud even without Amonra St. Brown and DJ Chark. And, you know, it was just bad. Keenan Allen only played 32% of the snaps. How about Paris Campbell, Frank? He's played 92% or more of the snaps in three straight games. Colts receiver Paris Campbell,

I can't recommend him anymore with the quarterback change. I just don't know what's going to happen. Yeah, I know that his ADOT is super low during that time too. I was reading the newsletter, which everyone should check out. Chris Towers does a great job with it. And I think it's like a 4.4 ADOT the past two weeks for Paris Campbell in these two games that he's obviously gone off for and he's looked much better. He's the primary slot receiver for the Indianapolis Colts. But even with Ellinger getting in there, I have to assume that Pittman is going to be the wide receiver one.

I still think he's the most talented. I still think that Pierce is more talented than Paris Campbell too and actually played a season high in terms of snap percentage. Basically, he was on the field for the entire game. So as a result, I do think as the season goes along, Pierce will get more involved and Paris Campbell will likely be phased out. So yeah, I'm not overall very excited

about Paris Campbell either. And the thing is, he's a great fit for Matt Ryan because Matt Ryan can't throw anymore, apparently. And he has the lowest air yards per pass attempt in football. And I just don't know what to expect now with Ellinger. And last thing, I just wanted to throw a little high five over to Geno Smith.

Yeah, there you go. High five. He completed 74% of his passes, averaged 7.8 yards per attempt, which is very good. That's his third best mark of the year. He had 105.5 passer rating. This is Geno Smith against the Chargers. This is all despite DK Metcalf playing 28% of the

snaps and Tyler Lockett missing a little bit of time playing 65% of the snaps. He made Marquise Goodwin a star in week seven and Goodwin obviously helped Geno Smith as well. So it wasn't a great fantasy game for Geno Smith. He didn't have to throw much, but after it was a really nice

bounce back because you know, if he had had another bad game, people would have been like, Oh, that's it. He's done. But Gino bounced back and played very well with receiver injuries. And,

uh, and yeah, good for him. And I think that means you could, you could maybe start them against the giants this week. Adam, the Seahawks are in first place in the NFC West. Just think about that.

They're four and three in a division that includes the Rams, the 49ers, and the Cardinals. It's crazy. I think when you look at the Giants and the Jets, the Bucks and the Packers, the Seahawks, those are the big surprises to me. This is a weird season. Holy cow, is this a weird season.

Especially the Green Bay and Tampa Bay. Especially Tampa Bay. Come on. Tom Brady is under 500 for the first time in 20 years. This late in the season. This late in the season. First time in 20 years. Which brings us to the five big topics. Topic number one comes from

Jade Richardson. Jade says, the Buccaneers, parenthesis, Seinfeld voice, Richardson. Jade says, the Buccaneers, parentheses, Seinfeld voice. What's the deal with the Buccaneers? What do you think? What do you think? I don't know. This is a great question.

So look, I dove in and this is what I found. Their offense is putrid right now. You didn't need me to tell you that. 17.7 points per game tied for 25th in the NFL, 5.1 yards per play tied for 25th in the NFL, five point one yards per play tied for 22nd in the NFL. They are 15th in passing plays of 20 plus yards.

That is obviously 15th, as I just mentioned, they were first in that category last year and it wasn't close. So that's a huge deal. Obviously, no Antonio Brown this season, no Rob Gronkowski. I think overall, it's just kind of been a weird season for the Bucs, Adam, where they started the year, first couple of games, they're trying to run the ball. Then they got back to passing the ball a bunch.

But there was a few games with like Evan suspended. Godwin was out with injury. Now, the past couple of games, they've been back. I just think it's going to take some time to find their footing here. I think they're going to be better. I think there has to be positive regression. I saw your tweet that you watched all of Tom Brady's past attempts, so obviously you could talk more to that.

But his touchdown percentage, Tom Brady's, is 2.7%. That is half of his career mark, 5.4%. I just have to think there's going to be positive touchdown regression at some point in this offense. Maybe they're not one of the top five offenses like they have been the past couple years. Maybe they're more of average. But once they get into that 10 to 15 mark, maybe they're not one of the top five offenses like they have been the past couple of years. Maybe they're more of average, but once they get into like that 10 to 15 mark,

if they can, then obviously we're going to feel a lot better about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and obviously Leonard Fournette. So that's what I noticed. I think it's going to be better, but I don't think they'll be as good or as elite as they have been the past couple of years. Yeah, so I can tell you what, you know,

I saw with my eyes and you can take from that what you will, but I definitely did not see a quarterback who was washed or washed up is the correct term, but he's throwing the ball with great velocity. He made a few throws that were just fantastic. He made a great throw downfield. It was an easy throw downfield to Evans. This is what Mike Evans said.

Mike Evans dropped a 64-yard touchdown on Brady's second pass of the game. Mike Evans said, no one play is the sole reason you lose, but that was definitely the biggest reason. I saw the light go out of us. It took me a while to get back playing. We're taught to just play the next play, but it was tough. Wide open, one of the best in the game. I've got to catch that.

Very revealing quote there. Brady's not the problem. The offensive line was terrific in the pass protection in this game. Brady's not the problem. The offensive line was terrific in the pass protection in this game. That was not the problem. I see some, so that's my observation. And then the metrics, they're not only 25th in points per game, 22nd in yards per play. They're 26th in red zone conversions, red zone touchdown conversions. In the previous

two seasons, they've been seventh and second in red zone touchdown conversions. They're really missing Rob Gronkowski. Frank told you about the lack of the big plays. They're really missing Antonio Brown. And I think they're really missing Chris Godwin. That is what I'm circling here. I don't know. This one is more of a guess. But based on what I watched, where Evans was really the only guy getting open consistently, and the numbers,

Godwin's route depth is lower. His catch, his ADOT is lower. And when you have a lower ADOT, you should have a higher catch rate. His catch rate is way down. His yards per catch is down. His yak is down from last year. It's basically the same as it was a little up from two years ago. Everything's down for Chris Godwin. And I'm just not sure. But actually, his target per out run rate is way up,

career high, 26.3%. I don't think they're getting enough from Chris Godwin. And that's the thing. I don't know what to say about that. Is that a fluke? Is that because he's not a hundred percent and he won't be till next year? I have no freaking idea, but I think there's a lack of weapons. There's a lack of run game. They just, they can't run the ball. I think it's killing their drives. They obviously don't have a good offensive line. There are some issues here. I don't think Brady's the issue, but there are some issues. I want to default, frankly, just saying he's throwing the ball over 40 times every game.

Things are going to get better. But I actually went back and I looked like there are plenty of examples of quarterbacks who were top three in pass attempts, and that's what he is. He's number two.

He's number three, one pass attempt behind number two, who had bad years, like Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff. He's not them, but pass attempts do not guarantee you fantasy production. We're learning that with Kyler Murray. We're learning that with Tom Brady. I'm more concerned than I was. I just feel confident that he is not the issue. I think it's really a lack of help around him

in so many forms. No run game, not much from Godwin, no tight end production really, no red zone threat except for Evans, and inconsistent offensive line play. Put all that together, I would take him over to and Dak and Derek Carr and Rodgers,

but I don't expect Tom Brady to win me my league. I think he's good. Not great. I hope that was a very long winded way of saying that, but I hope that helped. No, I think that's all fair. And, you know, I think outside of that pass attempt to Mike Evans, which again is very deflating for the start of that game. It just seemed like everything was like a dink and a dump. A lot of it is just short passes. Even the past couple of weeks, you know,

I've rostered Tom Brady and DFS and just following some of those games. And it just feels like everything has been dink and dump, much like Ben Roethlisberger the past couple of years. And I don't think Tom Brady is to the Ben Roethlisberger level looking at his intended air yards per pass attempt. You know,

he's down a little bit this year, 7.5. I'm not really feeling that. I don't think that was the case really with the dink and dunk personally. Like, well, even with this, like at four net is the RB eight.

Evans is the wide receiver. 11 in points per game. Like Godwin very clearly has been the biggest disappointment. He's like, I don't know, RB34 or something like that and a wide receiver 34 in points per game. So I think you're right. He's got to step up. But I think, you know, these pass catchers have to help Brady too.

Like, the Evans thing, like, that completely changes the game, completely changes Tom Brady's day. Yeah, and I think of all the quarterbacks who are really struggling right now, unless you want to throw Kyler in there, don't know i'd rather have kyler murray but brady definitely has the best chance in my opinion to turn things around i'm not giving up on it would you say buy low on him if you know if you're like just stuck in quarterback hell or in a super flex league where maybe whoever has tom brady has three quarterbacks like

go out and try and buy low on Tom Brady. Yeah. And I really think all it would take would, would God, God wouldn't be God when we're rediscovering his form, which could, you know, it could be,

Hey, I had got a few games under my belt and I feel good now and I'm back, you know, it could be that. All right. Uh, this is from big Mike. He has two questions.

Can the Phillies win the world series and can DJ Moore be trusted to start? Let's hope so. Let's hope the Phillies can win the World Series. We're all Phillies fans now. We're all Phillies fans. Look, in all seriousness, the Astros are a really, really good baseball team. I can't knock them.

They have phenomenal pitching, very disciplined hitters. But the Phillies remind me a lot of the Braves from last year. They are the hottest team in the postseason right now. And I think it's going to be a really good series between them. So let's go Phillies. Let's hope so. As for DJ Moore, first game without Christian McCaffrey,

he had 10 targets. No other Panthers pass catcher had more than three targets in this game. A 48% target share for DJ Moore in week seven. PJ Walker is going to start again next week. I think PJ Walker was fine. I mean, obviously, like, the best DJ Moore has looked all season long.

That touchdown throw was actually a really good throw. A really good catch, too. Frank, he was the number one rated passer from PFF in week seven. That is all you need to know about PJ Walker. I did notice one more thing with DJ Moore. He ran 11 routes from the slot. He didn't run that many routes.

I think it was like 24 total in this game because they didn't really need to drop back very much. But that was a 46% slot percentage for DJ Moore. On the season, he's at 25%. So maybe they're moving him around a little bit and that's affording him the ability to get open, maybe run some different routes out of the slot, but overall it worked.

And this was the best that we've seen him. Can he be trusted to start is the question. What do we consider top 24 is a must-start wide receiver. I don't think I'm ready to put DJ more inside the top 24. I mean, especially with all those great wide receivers coming back off by in week eight. I think it'll probably be like a top 30 wide receiver, high-end wide receiver three.

I feel much, much better. No doubt about it. Must start. I don't think we're there yet. Yeah, they gave him a wide receiver screen. They had a play where he kind of went across the formation in motion and they quickly threw it to him after the snap. PJ Walker was very good. And he was able to throw the ball downfield because without Christian McCaff it to him after the snap. P.J. Walker was very good,

and he was able to throw the ball downfield because without Christian McCaffrey, I mean, it was such a joke, their passing game in week six, but they threw the ball downfield. And actually last year, D.J. Moore had a, I took out the two games, I ignored the two games

where Christian McCaffrey left with an injury. So I took out those two games, and just so we all know. But that's just an Acer stat. I take out those two games and just so we all know um but that's just an azer stack take out those two games last year dj moore had a 24.7 percent target share with mcafree 27.2 percent without mcafree so you're i think you're definitely on to something there i don't think it's gonna be 48 but still he's have more targets, more target share. Walker did certainly play well, and that I don't think will necessarily continue, but it did happen.

I will point out his next four matchups, two of them are against the Falcons. They are 32nd out of 32 teams in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They are the worst team against wide receivers. That's this week and week 10. And then the Bengals are in between that, and the Bengals have been very good. I'm with you, Frank.

I think kind of a number three receiver. Yeah, that's not a must start, but encouraging things. Because there's no Robbie Anderson, there's no Christian McCaffrey. That's a big deal. Who else are they going to throw to? Yeah, and I tweeted this out last week in the things because there's no Robbie Anderson. There's no Christian McCaffrey. That's a, that's a big deal. Who else are they going to throw to? Yeah. And I tweeted this out last week in the two games that PJ Walker started

since 2020. This was going into, I guess it would have been week six. DJ Moore had a 27% target share in those games. So again, like it's very clear, like Walker should be a good thing for DJ Moore. And yeah, look, if you trust that he could go off in those Falcons games, look to buy, you know, like there could be some really big games coming here for DJ Moore. Like I think so

many people have soured on him. They might just look at this opportunity opportunity to get him off their team. Like, let me just get rid of DJ Moore, however I can. And you could go out and try and get him for much lower than he's actually worth. So, something I would look into doing. Alright, this is from Kyle. Is Michael Carter a top 12 running back rest of season, and is Deontay Foreman a top 15 running back rest of season?

Alright, so let's start with Michael Carter. There were three games that he played last year where he played 70% of the snaps or more. They were week 7, 18, and 16. He averaged 20.3 touches per game, and that included 6.3 receptions per game.

He was the RB3, the third best running back in week 7, 8, and 16 combined from last season in PPR points. So he was amazing. Top three running back. The problem is that 17 of those 19 receptions came with Mike White at quarterback. Mike White is not the quarterback. Zach Wilson is unfortunately the quarterback for the Jets. And I've watched enough of the Jets this year to know that A, Zach Wilson has not played very well.

And B, he does not throw to the running back very much either. So look, if they don't go out and trade for someone, because I think that's another part of this equation here, Adam, I wouldn't surprise me if the jets look into like a Kareem hunt or a Jeff Wilson. Obviously they have ties to San Francisco with their coaching staff. Uh, then yeah, I do think Michael Carter can be, uh, like a borderline RB one. Uh, that's assuming that he's getting, you know, most of the work and that's high Johnson isn't taking very much, but I think Carter is like far and away better than Ty Johnson. So the answer is, I think Michael Carter could be a top 12 running back the rest of the year.

I don't know if you want to react to that before we get into Foreman, but what do you think about Carter? Top 12 seems kind of rich. You're not going to value him that way. Put it that way. Let's look at 12 running backs that you're going to take over him. Eckler, Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, McCaffrey. Stop me if you disagree with any of these.

Fournette, that's six. Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, that's nine. Then you've got Dalvin Cook, that's 10. Alvin Kamara is 11. And then it won't be hard to find at 12th. We're talking maybe Ken Walker, Damian Pierce.

I don't know how you feel about Miles Sanders. I don't know how you feel about Ezekiel Elliott, DeAndre Swift. I don't think he's going to be top 12. I compared him to Jeff Wilson. I think the production will be the points will be similar.

The way they go about it will be different. But Wilson was a guy that you just had to roster. You could start him most weeks and you had to live with it if he had a bad game. He wasn't going to be amazing, but he was going to be a reliable RB2

or if you were good at running back a flex, it's kind of how I see Michael Carter. I think that makes sense. Top 20 is probably more accurate, right? Like a middling RB2. Yes. Where again, like that's where we were ranking Jeff Wilson for most of the season

without Elijah Mitchell. I didn't even say Jonathan Taylor because he's so far down in the rankings right now, but I would take Jonathan Taylor over him. But I think that mile Sanders range that you were talking about, like mile Sanders, Zeke, that,

that kind of makes sense to me for Michael Carter. I'm really curious to see what the, what the catches are like, because Zach Wilson started four games running backs. It's just the two of them. Paul and Carter have an 18.6% target share. Question would be if, if how much of a role Ty Johnson plays or if they really let Michael Carter

be pretty close to an every down back. And 18.6, I think that's okay. But remember, Breesaw had six targets in one game and since then, it's been much less. But also been very few pass attempts. He's thrown 21, 18, and 26 passes in the last three games, Zach Wilson. They've won all of them. They've given up 17, 10, and 9 points.

I don't think they're going to be nearly as good without Brees Hall. I think they're going to be more passes, and I'm hoping that some of those are going to Michael Carter. So get them, and we'll see. They're not going to have a choice, Adam. Yeah, exactly. They're not going to a choice adam yeah exactly they're not gonna run as effectively without breeze hall so i think they're as a result they're just gonna have to throw the ball a little bit more now reverse psychology would you try if someone values michael carter as like

a top 15 or top 12 running back would you just try and sell them right now yeah i think so go out and make a trade for another running back to help him out. Yes. I think it was kind of like DeAndre Hopkins before he played, and maybe we're wrong because Hopkins had a very good game, but he did absolutely nothing downfield. He just got a bunch of targets, short area targets, basically. People might be viewing DeAndre Hopkins as if he were going to be Marquise Brown and be basically a top 10 wide receiver, and if that's the way you felt, then you go trade him. Again, maybe we were wrong about that. But if you think Michael Carter is going to be top 12, then I would trade him to

you and try to get something really good in return. I don't think there's a chance DeAndre Foreman is going to be a top 15 running back unless Chuba Hubbard misses a lot of time. I don't think that's going to happen. You were probably right about that. I looked into the games that Foreman started last year with the Titans. Obviously, it's a completely different situation. It's a much better offense, a much better team in general. But he had six games with 13 or more touches last season. He was the RB 13 overall with 80.3 PPR points

in those six games total. So I agree with you. I don't think he's going to like, it's closer than I thought originally. I was like top 15. There's no way, but he actually played really well when given an opportunity last season. You know,

this first game, 54% snap, 17 of 30 RB touches. He looked really explosive. He had a run of 27 and 60 yards. So that was pretty impressive for Deontay Foreman. I think if everything works out right for him, he can probably be like a top

24 running back. But I don't know that I want to trust him or make that claim or put my state of approval on Deontay Foreman. I mean, we'd rather have Michael Carter. Yeah, no doubt about it. Yeah. I'd rather have Gus Edwards. I think so.

Yeah, but that's closer. Okay, let's go to O.J. Weber's question. Jonathan Taylor, what do you think about Jonathan Taylor rest of season? I had a really good answer for this before they benched Matt Ryan. Now I have no idea. Right, yeah, I have the same exact thing. If you just look at the usage of Jonathan Taylor this season, it's been amazing.

In the games that he's played, 74% of the snaps. It's third among running backs in the NFL. 13% target share is up from last year, where he was at 10% last season. He had a career-high seven receptions this past week. He had eight targets, which tied a career-high. 16 red zone opportunities in weeks one to four when he was seemingly healthy. Tied for second in the NFL. Everything that you wanted to see from Jonathan

Taylor has been there besides touchdowns. He only has one touchdown last year. He had 20. That's the biggest difference. But if you look at his usage, it's been amazing. It's basically the usage of a top five running back for fantasy purposes. Now, I agree with you. How much worse is the Colts offense going to be with Sam Ellinger? How much is Ellinger going to throw the ball to the running backs? That's something that I was getting pretty excited about for Jonathan Taylor. Those are legitimate question marks. Yeah, and they have, according to PFF,

the third worst run-blocking team in football. They are the third worst run-blocking team in football. So if they say, all right, Ellinger's our guy. We're going to ditch this fast-paced, throw the ball a ton, get the ball out quickly kind of offense, and go back to our ground-and-pound nature, I actually don't know that that's good for Taylor because I don't think behind this offensive line, I don't know that he can be a superstar again. Yesterday, I basically yelled at Dave for saying that he'd take Ken Walker over Jonathan Taylor in full PPR because Taylor had seven catches yesterday and Matt Ryan was throwing so much and throwing so short. The running backs were a huge part of it. What did Deion Jackson have two weeks ago? 10 catches. So I actually thought that this offense would really work for him from a PPR standpoint. I'm still going to take him over Ken Walker. He's Jonathan Taylor.

I want to give him that respect. He was the number one pick for a reason. Everybody three months ago thought he was the best running back in football, basically. So I'm going to take him over Walker, but it's not by much. It's not, I'm not convinced anymore.

I think this is a downgrade, Frank. I do. I think it probably means more carries, fewer catches. And considering how bad their offensive line is, I'm going to say that this is concerning. And I like him, but I don't love him as much as I did a day ago.

I think that makes sense. I think you have to factor in a lack of scoring and just efficiency in the offense as well with Sam Ellinger. Maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe he comes out and he's much better than Matt Ryan. Now that Matt Ryan has been great this year, he's looked, you know, he's had some big gains, but he's also had some duds. So maybe Ellinger can be better than that, but I don't know that they're going to want to put their trust in the arm of Sam Ellinger.

So you're right. I think it's probably more rushing attempts, but less targets, less receptions, less efficiency in the offense, instead of being the short-fire top three running back he was coming into the season, he's probably more in that 6-10 range, which is still very good. I think he's still going to be an RB1, but just not as good as we thought coming into the season. Yeah, he doesn't have a great schedule going forward either,

for what it's worth. And I usually wouldn't even care about that, but you might have to now. Okay, last one is from Jerome. Injuries and injury replacements, and is Najee Harris a buy-low candidate? So Najee Harris is RB29 in PPR points per game. I think most weeks he's going to be ranked better than that,

just in terms of weekly rankings and matchups. So maybe in that way, yeah, he is. I think he's probably more of a top 24 running back, but I don't think we're getting anywhere close to the player Najee Harris was last year. They just don't throw the ball to the running backs as much as Big Ben did, and overall, this offense doesn't score many points. And basically, when they've gotten the red zone, it seems like they're looking to throw more than they have in the past.

So I think he's a low in RB2, which is fine. I'm not very excited to go out and try and trade for Najee Harris personally. I think I'd rather have Michael Carter. I think that is the right range. Again, I think Najee's probably a little bit lower than Carter and Miles Sanders and Zeke. But that makes sense. Yeah, that's probably a little bit lower than Carter and Miles Sanders and Zeke. But that makes sense.

Yeah, that's probably 15 through 24, rest of season, something like that. Right. But I do think Carter is a little bit higher. All right. And that's it for today's show. Oh, injury replacements. I'm sorry. So I like Josh Palmer.

He's got to buy this week. But if Mike Williams is going to miss any extended time, I like Palmer. I like, I guess, Dulcich. This is a tough week at tight end. No Kelsey. No Gerald Everett. No David Njoku.

So there's that. Is there another tight end injury? Yeah, I don't think you can trust Kyle Pitts at this point. He may as well be injured. So, Dulcich is well, Dulcich is you know, an option. The waiver wire quarterbacks you're not really going to

love, but Daniel Jones is going to be one of them. Jameis Winston if you need a quarterback. Yeah. I think in deeper leagues like DK Metcalf's injury, maybe you look at a Marquise Goodwin or Seahawks tight ends. Someone else has to catch the ball.

Maybe there's just a lot more work for Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker. Ken Walker, I think, is going to have a big game. The Giants cannot stop the run. Marquise Goodwin looked good yesterday. Can't knock it. No, but cannot stop the run. Marquis Goodwin looked good yesterday. Can't knock it. No, but those are the types of performances that I never chase. Totally random.

But Geno Smith, I mean, he's got one of the best quarterbacks in football right now. Geno Smith has been that good. Other injury replacements? Obviously, Michael Carter. Obviously, Gus Edwards is still available in a lot of leagues. Sure. Did any wide receivers

check my... Would you rather have Carter or Gus Edwards? I didn't ask you that already? No, you asked me... I think you said Gus Edwards over Foreman, definitively. Yeah.

Carter. All right. So, non-PPR, I'd take Edwards. Otherwise, I'd take Carter. Yeah. I think half or full probably go with Michael Carter. Yeah, I think half or full. Probably go with Michael Carter.

Yeah, I guess there would... Oh, oh, Alan Lazard is out. All right, I'll tell you what. I would be looking at Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore with Corey Davis out as well. This is not a big ringing endorsement, by the way, but I just think they're going to have to throw the ball more. They can't continue to throw the ball 25 times, basically.

Excuse me, excuse me, Oreo Cookies. Excuse me. I did not say don't play Olave against the Cardinals. I did not say that. I said the Cardinals were the worst possible matchup for Chris Olave. I laid out all the reasons, and I said I am still starting him. I said I have him in two leagues.

I started him in both. You have to play him. I don't like when my words get twisted like that. That is not what I said, and I will not accept that, Oreo Cookies, and now I am eating Chips Ahoy exclusively. You have turned me off from Oreo cookies.

How about that? Or Tate's cookie. We'll just eat Tate's. Please just make sure to dunk all of your Oreos in milk because that's the best way to consume an Oreo cookie. I did have a note on, a few Jets notes here. Garrett Wilson, according to Seth Walder, who does analytics for ESPN,

Garrett Wilson is top five in open score, which I guess just measures how open you are consistently. Oh, that's right. They have that metric now, yeah. Yeah, so he's top five in that. So Garrett Wilson is getting open. And to your point, the Jets have the hardest remaining schedule

by DVOA for rest of season. The hardest schedule. So as a result, probably going to have to pass more. Okay. I did not say Sid Olave. That's just really, really... By the way, is there an age limit for dunking your cookies in milk? Because I'd be a little embarrassed, honestly, to dunk my cookies in milk. I mean, I do it in the comfort of my home when no one's watching. I don't take

my Oreo cookies in milk to the nearby cafe or bar and I'm like, Hey, let's dip my cookies in milk. You know, I have a spoon. I, I submerged the cookie for like a good six to eight seconds. I feel like that's the right ratio and you pick it back up and eat it. Yeah. It's like I, at one time, this must've been 10 years ago or so. I, I think I went to a Starbucks with my friends and I don't drink coffee and I ordered a hot chocolate and I felt like such a loser because I felt like, what are you, 10 years old ordering a hot chocolate? You're going to ask for marshmallows in it or something? I just feel like there's an age limit for some foods. No, let's go with the marshmallows. I'm with you, man. I'm not a coffee drinker at all either. I've revealed on the Sunday morning stream that I drink tea. I like hot chocolate

too, but no, coffee's not for me either. Okay. Thanks, everybody. Thanks for your time. Frank, thanks for filling in, man. I appreciate it. Thanks, man. I didn't know if we were going to be,

what is it usually? Simple guy? Simple people? Simple stats for, or advanced stats for simple people? I don't even remember. Yeah. No, I got rid of the simple people.

We replaced. Today, we were just like two simple guys giving out simple stats, remember. Yeah. No, I got rid of the simple people. We were playing... I was going to say, like, today, we were just, like, two simple guys giving out simple stats, basically. That's what we were going for.

I mean, that essentially was the show. But thanks to Frank Stample and to all of you for watching and listening to Thomas Schaefer for his tremendous Twitter polls, for Peacock for stealing

$5 from me, and for Oreo, Oreo, whatever your name is, for driving me crazy and putting me in a bad mood. We'll talk to you tomorrow with The Waiver Wire on Fantasy Football Today.