Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler, Zero-RB (12/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 4, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts What's up with the Chiefs? We recap the Chie...fs-Packers game (2:15) and talk about the rising Jordan Love and the struggling Patrick Mahomes. We offer some reason for why the Chiefs offense just seems stuck in neutral ... News and notes (17:05) and a plethora of advanced stats (19:15) from Jacob. We discuss Nico Collins, Elijah Moore, Trey McBride and even Jonathan Mingo. Then Dan does some film review (33:15) on Chuba Hubbard and also explains run blocking schemes ... Four Big Topics: Wide receivers we can't trust (39:15); how to use your bench in the Fantasy playoffs (45:30); Austin Ekeler's outlook (49:30); The Year of Zero-RB (54:50) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:45 It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It's Monday, week 13, wrapping up tonight with the Jaguars and the Bengals. Fantasy postseason is coming up. This is a big episode of beyond the box score, baby. Here we go.
Starting point is 00:02:08 It is December 4th. We're into December. We only have a few episodes of beyond the box score left advanced stats from simple people. I'm Adam Azar here with Jacob Gibbs and Mr. I am always sick. Dan Schneier, of course,
Starting point is 00:02:20 under the weather as usual. Hello, Dan. Are you okay? First time, long time as far as that goes but no i'm not okay i think i had a collective 30 minutes of sleep last night if i was lucky why couldn't sleep couldn't get comfortable throat nose everything just couldn't get comfortable at all so yeah that's my life right now um and i'm trying to go through it. But now I know how it feels to be Adam Azer.
Starting point is 00:02:46 He's really milking it though. No, you don't know though, because I tough it out. You don't really milk it. He is milking it. I'm toughing it out too. I'm right here. I watched the tape this morning. You know, I did everything I was supposed to do.
Starting point is 00:02:59 You on the other hand have, you know, complained about being sick a multitude of times. You sound sick. At least I don't sound that sick. That of times. You sound sick. At least I don't sound that sick. That's because you're not sick? I had the decency to clear up the sinuses before going on the show. Yeah, I tried. You're milking it. All right.
Starting point is 00:03:16 Today on the show, can you trust any wide receivers on the Commanders, Panthers, Cardinals, Titans, Browns, Patriots, Giants, or Jets in the fantasy playoffs. Who should you be stashing for the fantasy playoffs? We're talking about some DSTs. Is this the year of zero RB? And what do we make of Austin Eckler? Obviously, we'll recap last night's game,
Starting point is 00:03:36 where I thought if anyone would come in and be like, oh, I don't feel well, I'm sad. I thought it'd be Jacob, because obviously the Chiefs got jobs on a couple of missed pass interference calls at the end there. But yeah, let's start with that. Green Bay 27, Kansas City 19. And Jacob, give me your fantasy takeaways. Yeah, I'm not feeling too bummed about it. I mean, probably we lost our chances of the Chiefs getting a bye.
Starting point is 00:04:01 But I mean, I feel like honestly, Kansas City has gotten away with some calls here and there over the years. And I think this Packers team is too fun to be like, oh man, I'm sad about this as a Chiefs fan. Like, this is really cool what we're seeing with Jordan Love. Some of these throws are just incredible. From a fantasy side of things,
Starting point is 00:04:21 nine targets for She-Rice, only nine air yards. So really, everything is coming around the line of scrimmage his raw participation didn't change that much 69 so kind of the same thing but we are seeing him just continue to become a more and more prominent piece of this offense they had cadarious tony back in this game so the week before they had him and mccall hardman both out and they ran a lot more schemed up stuff for rice and i thought maybe that would shrink a little bit with tony back but still led the team in target so that's great um and then yeah love played really well he got blitz 45 percent of the time that's three straight games he's been blitzed at least 40 percent of the time and he's been playing extremely well during that time completed 12 of 17 passes for 100 yards and three touchdowns
Starting point is 00:05:05 against the blitz um against the chiefs last night so really exciting stuff for him um hopefully christian watson's hamstring injury isn't serious because he looked fantastic last night he looked like the guy that everybody got so excited for this offseason um i don't know do i have any other takeaways than than that? I mean, look, I beat Dan because of Christian Watson and it was really one of the best fantasy wins ever.
Starting point is 00:05:30 And I can rub it in and I can talk smack about it because Dan was, didn't even matter for Dan. He was three and nine. I was six. I wanted to play spoiler. Who were you?
Starting point is 00:05:39 You should have been rooting for me. You should have been rooting for me. You know how much that game meant to me. You didn't need it at all. I needed it in a big way. And I was so mad because he had Nico Collins and he had Debo Samuel
Starting point is 00:05:50 and he had Ezekiel Elliott. He stole like 12 points and I was going to lose to this 3-9 bum and then Purdy goes off. Christian Watson wins it for me. I was so excited. I don't normally get that way, but this was amazing. So, Dan,
Starting point is 00:06:06 thank you for letting me win. You know what? We're going to have maybe like third or fourth at worst, most points. We had a slugfest. Yes, exactly. We both went off, both of our teams. I wanted to play spoiler, but it's okay. I'm happy to have been in that spot. You know what? I root for Adam if it's not me
Starting point is 00:06:21 in these types of leagues. We got that going for us. I have a couple takeaways about this game, though, or one major one, and it's Jordan Love because, you know, what I wanted to see when we – so we evaluated Love last week on Beyond the Box score. I would say go back and listen to that for a breakdown of what's really improved and what's changed on tape. And we came away really impressed, or I came away really impressed. I feel like his confidence level is skyrocketed from what I saw earlier in the season.
Starting point is 00:06:46 I talked about how his rapport and trust with Christian Watson built. I really hope that hamstring injury or whatever happened with Watson on that last play isn't major because that would suck. And I think it would cause somewhat of a regression for love, but I don't know if it's going to cause too much of a regression for love because this was the big one for me. This Chiefs defense has been really phenomenal this year. This is East Packnall's best season, in my opinion, coordinating a team. I felt like this was a really tough matchup, really cold.
Starting point is 00:07:10 Cold weather is not good for quarterbacks at all for throwing the football. And yet, what happened? Jordan Love was more of the same, if not better. Over the last five weeks, Jordan Love is second in the NFL in touchdown passes, third in passing yards, fourth in passer rating, his yards per attempt, which is important to me, fourth in the NFL, his completion rate, 10th, his EPA per play, his third best in the NFL. And we're talking about a quarterback right now who is one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy over the last five weeks, and now he's done it against a really good defense. He had a 90.6 PFF grade last night with
Starting point is 00:07:43 four big- time throws, best of the season. That's really the difference for me. It's those 20 plus yard plays that seem to be coming at a really high rate now relative to the rest of the league. And I think a lot of it has to do with how fast he's moving through his progressions, his confidence,
Starting point is 00:07:57 his processing power, like his mental processing in this offense is starting to really click. And obviously, you know, if you've heard any of what LaFleur has said, they're clicking too as play caller to quarterback, which is really important, in my opinion, this time of year. He gets the Giants this week, a great matchup.
Starting point is 00:08:12 And I think at this point, we can start to turn the page and consider if Jordan Love is matchup proof. Right. That was the thing. You know, we talked about it last week. He hadn't done it against a tough defense all year. He had a 20-point game against Pittsburgh, but really he'd just been beating up on these easy opponents. We could see that he was clearly playing better.
Starting point is 00:08:31 So on one hand, yeah, he becomes a must-start automatic guy because he goes out and he beats the Chiefs, and he really plays great against them. How about that deep ball he threw to Dobbs? Back penalty. That was wild. Is that a beautiful throw or what? But I do think that losing Christian Watson,
Starting point is 00:08:47 and hopefully it's not that bad. It is a hamstring injury. Watson was on the field after the game, high-fiving and all that. But he's had so many hamstring injuries. He's had these types of hamstring injuries in the past. So I'd be a little surprised if he didn't miss some time. Giants, he could probably overcome that.
Starting point is 00:09:04 I don't know. Jordan Love, I'm talking about. I do think that's a big deal, losing Watson. And I know he had good games early in the season without Watson, but he did it with a crazy high touchdown rate. He wasn't playing as well. But now he's in a groove and he just looks great. But Watson definitely gives them a different element.
Starting point is 00:09:19 Nobody on the team can do what he does. For Jordan Love, it's been the deep balls, too. That's just been such a difference for him over the last month. He's completing them at such a much higher rate. He's been outstanding. I think we're all on the same page. I want to say something about A.J. Dillon. How about this? A.J. Dillon has scored 9.1
Starting point is 00:09:36 to 11.5 PPR fantasy points in six of his last seven games without a touchdown in any of those games. He can't score. He got tackled at those games. He can't score. He got tackled at the one. But he's still giving you about 10 to 11 points a game almost every week in PPR. And he's not doing that with a ton of catches.
Starting point is 00:09:57 He's just having nice, solid games, good workload, and he can't score. Imagine if he scores. You've got a 16-point game there or better. So as long as Aaron Jones is out, I think we might have to reconsider a little bit on agent. I mean, this week, I think Dylan's a must start at the Giants, even with only two teams on by. And he's got he's got some tough matchups, some easy matchups, like too tough, too easy coming up.
Starting point is 00:10:14 But he's just involved enough that he gives you a nice floor. If he could just find the end zone, that would be nice. As far as the other receivers of Christian Watson is out. Yeah, I guess it's a boost. It's a boost for everyone. Maybe more for Dobbs, maybe, than Reed. I think Reed's a little overrated, personally. If he didn't have that rushing touchdown a few weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:10:34 Take it back. I'm sorry, for fantasy, he really struggles to get 50 yards most weeks. But, you know, it's kind of a guessing game with these Packers receivers. All right. We're excited about them. Pacheco's obviously a stud. And then, you know, Pacheco is one of the biggest busts in fantasy. Yes.
Starting point is 00:10:53 He's the number eight quarterback per game in four-point and six-point. It's getting a little ridiculous here, Dan. The last five weeks, he's averaging 14 fantasy points a game. Yeah. Buffalo at home. I'm curious to get your take as i pull the line from from jacob gibbs i don't have any impressions planned for today or prepared for today the adam mazer impression will come at some point most likely on a mailbag show but i'm curious to get your
Starting point is 00:11:15 take jacob on what's going on with patrick mahomes you've obviously watched a lot more chiefs in depth than i have is it because i'll tell you this about Patrick Mahomes, which I think is interesting. I feel like just from the eye test, something is going on with him from an injury standpoint. That's unreported, not, you don't see it on the weekly injury report. No one's talking about it. We'll hear about it in the off season on from some interview or something. So I just don't feel like the arm looks the same to me as it's always looked, especially on the vertical plane.
Starting point is 00:11:44 I'm curious to hear your take, if that's the problem or if it's really just these receivers that's interesting i think he hasn't quite looked the same this year um but i mostly have attributed to the offensive line has been a problem he's not trusting the reads his first read rate is much lower than normal he's holding the ball longer than normal um to me it's kind of like what's going on with Geno Smith. Looks uncomfortable within the framework that he's got to work with. But yeah, that wouldn't shock me either. I don't think he's looked super healthy, especially at earlier times this year when he's been taking more hits.
Starting point is 00:12:15 You know, here's some stats that I have a hard time wrapping my head around, how this is possible. Last year, Kansas City led the NFL in big plays. Big play being a 20-plus yard play. They led the NFL in big plays. Big play being a 20-plus yard play. They led the NFL in big completions. They had 10 more 20-plus yard completions than number two Philadelphia.
Starting point is 00:12:36 So they did that without Tyreek Hill, without a great downfield passing game, with Mahomes having a low ADOT or area yards per pass attempt. They did all that. And they were number one in big pass plays. This year, everything's worse. His ADOT's lower.
Starting point is 00:12:53 His yards after the catch are lower, but they're not low. And they're 18th in big plays, something like that.
Starting point is 00:13:05 They're, yeah, they're 18th in completions of 20 or more yards. So it's weird. I can't quite figure out statistically what's missing. The completion rate isn't lower. It's like the yak is a little lower. The air yards per pass attempt are a little lower. The big plays are much lower. They're bad at this now.
Starting point is 00:13:23 They're below average at creating big plays are much lower they're bad at this now they're below average at creating big plays one one factor that i've considered uh because another player to me who just doesn't look the same on tape and i don't think it's an age thing i think it's the fact that he's playing through this one's obvious an injury that you know we even saw him miss a little bit of time with earlier this year that's travis kelsey travis kelsey to me does not look at all like the player i saw on tape last year i don't know if you agree with that or disagree with that, Jacob. He's really banged up. He's really banged up.
Starting point is 00:13:50 Chiefs people are really worried he's going to retire after this year. I wouldn't be surprised after playing through this injury and not looking the same whatsoever. But if Travis Kelsey isn't at his 100% and is even maybe at 60% or 70%, which I think is possible based on what I've seen, it just changes so much schematically because travis kelsey's ability to occupy that middle of the field opens up so much other areas of the of the of the you know field you always say like the best quarterbacks the nfl the best pass offense they're the ones that force defenses to cover every blade of grass outside the numbers down the field and it's like if travis kelsey when he was occupying that middle of the field as well as he was earlier in his career until this year,
Starting point is 00:14:26 I really feel like then you have so many other opportunities to throw into space, open space. But without that, it's like, and if they're not, the defense is not sending as many defenders to worry about Travis Kelsey, what is left on this roster to worry about.
Starting point is 00:14:40 And that's when you could start to really, in my opinion, scheme to stop my homes more than stopping the space and the open receivers. And I think that's a big part of the issue as well, just Kelsey not being healthy. Yeah, I'll give you just two more things.
Starting point is 00:14:52 Someone asked, I'd like to know Captain Spock. I'd like to know Mahomes' average time of release this year versus last year. Well, this is the show to ask that question. He's actually averaging
Starting point is 00:15:01 a career high by far, time to throw, 3.1 seconds he's never been higher than 2.93 he's at 3.09 this year so that's just a little factoid for you but one thing about by the way yeah which by the way i feel like is like a i don't want to call it overrated stat but just like a misinterpreted and misunderstood stat like i think a lot of people look at time of release and be like this quarterback has a great offensive line this quarterback is a bad offensive line when in reality that's on the quarterback too and you know you want the quarterback to be processing and getting rid of the football fast and in a lot of
Starting point is 00:15:37 ways in a lot of times which is one reason why i always say the best offensive line is a quarterback in a lot of ways the best quarterbacks make the best offensive lines because they're decisive with the football and they get rid of it and they go through their progressions really well. So I think part of that is what you said with Mahomes holding the ball a little longer. Or Jacob said, I'm sorry, with the first read stuff. Okay. Also, I think this is related to Isaiah Pacheco. You might be surprised that at this point in the season, Isaiah Pacheco has six rushing touchdowns. Five of them are one yard rushing touchdowns. Five of them are one-yard rushing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:16:06 That's variance. Mahomes is losing that. You don't usually see that from the Chiefs. I'm going to tell you where they've ranked in the previous four seasons. They've been 14th, 32nd, 4th, and 21st in running
Starting point is 00:16:22 back touchdowns from one to two yards out. So this year they're tied for third, I think, one behind the three teams that are tied for first. So that's just weird. Usually you get those pop passes and those cheap Mahomes touchdowns, and this year they're kind of becoming Pacheco touchdowns. All right, I think we've talked 15 minutes on this game. That should suffice.
Starting point is 00:16:43 Let's talk for 45 minutes about Sportsline here. If you like Beyond the Box score, you can check out Jacob's Beyond the Box score column on Sportsline. More great content from Jacob, DFS lineups from our crew, gambling advice all over the place on Sportsline. You've got content from Dave, Jamie, and Heath on Sportsline. It's really an incredible bargain for $9.99 a month.
Starting point is 00:17:03 Or get the annual subscription to Sportsline and save 60%. What? 60%? We're giving it away. Use the code FOLLOW when you sign up. 60% off at sportsline.com. Sportsline.com slash join. And the promo code is FOLLOW.
Starting point is 00:17:21 You're welcome. We'll do a news and notes and advanced stats when we take us after we take this quick break uh i feel like that was a uh an snl jimmy fallon character or something he's like you're welcome anybody remember that nah that's definitely before both of our times no it wasn't it was like 10 years ago and i just like making you try to feel like trying to make it okay i'm gonna i'm gonna google that while we go to break we'll be right back on fantasy football years ago. I just like making you try to feel like trying to make you hold. Okay. I've got to, I've got to Google that while we go to break.
Starting point is 00:17:48 We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage for more than 65 years. Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations,
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Starting point is 00:18:41 Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. Yeah, it was Nick Burns, your company's computer guy. He'd be such a jerk. You know how your computer guy is so much smarter than you
Starting point is 00:18:57 and he helps you out and you're like embarrassed by the dumb... Like I said, dated. Who has computer guys these days? People who work at an office? It's called an IT department, Adam. You ask the IT guy. Don't just call those people
Starting point is 00:19:10 computer guys anymore. Well, that's the name of the character. Jeez. It's like Cable Guy. You're like, the next thing you're going to have Cable Guys. Don't get me started.
Starting point is 00:19:20 It's one of my least favorite movies. Really? Cable Guy's great. I think it's pretty good. It's not. You're wrong. You're thinking of a different movie. No, I've seen cable guy's great i think it's pretty good it's not you're wrong you're thinking of a different movie no i've seen cable guy and i think it's pretty good all right news and notes uh tankdale out for the year derrick henry is out of the concussion protocol apparently dan was so psyched to talk about tajay spears and now i think i'm cutting it from the show so 20 minutes 20 minutes 25 minutes of watching tajay spears film
Starting point is 00:19:43 today just to throw it all out. That's great. Ramondre Stevenson injury. They're at Pittsburgh on a short week. So you could expect... No, we're going to keep it for a dynasty spin. Exact decision. No, we're not.
Starting point is 00:19:54 It was 15 minutes on one game. We're cutting it. No, no, that's just how long it took to watch. I'll wrap it up. No, no, no. I'm talking about how the Chiefs game went long. So we have to cut content. DeAndre Swift left in the fourth quarter.
Starting point is 00:20:06 Didn't see anything on that. I hope he's okay. Brian Robinson, hamstring injury. They're going on a bye. Jalen Hurts is fine. Christian Watson, hamstring. Amari Cooper, concussion. Marquise Brown, heel injury, but they're on a bye.
Starting point is 00:20:18 Hopefully he can get back. Kenny Pickett might miss the rest of the fantasy season. He could be back maybe in week 17 or 18 at this point. But he had surgery on a high ankle sprain. So it is the Mitchell Trubisky show for now. If he struggles, I guess I wouldn't rule out Mason Rudolph. But right now it's Trubisky. And again, they're playing Thursday against the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:20:37 And they signed Trace McSorley to their practice squad. Tyler Higby evaluated for a concussion. Derek Carr has a concussion, a shoulder injury, and a back injury, and he faces Carolina this week. Well, he won't face them, but his team does. In all likelihood, he won't face them. Let's see. All right, we're waiting to hear on Frank Ragnow, Detroit center.
Starting point is 00:20:58 Couldn't miss some time. Isaac Samalu is not going to play this week, I'm pretty sure, for the Steelers. He has a shoulder injury. Oh, big one. Jeffrey Simmons for the Titans. He is going to miss multiple weeks, including this Monday's game against Devon Achan, Raheem Mostert, and the Miami Dolphins. And Kansas City had a rough night last night.
Starting point is 00:21:21 Not only did they lose and should have gotten it. Now, look, obviously, the 15-yard penalty on the Mahomes hit was dumb. But then after, I don't know how you missed the MVS pass interference. That was the most obvious pass interference. But Brian Cook, their safety, he left with an ankle injury. And linebacker Drew Tranquil left with a concussion. So we'll go to some advanced stats and some snap counts and things like that. And it is time for me to take a little break and let jacob gibbs drive drive the ship go ahead yeah so i just wanted to point out this is
Starting point is 00:21:50 just for fun we had the huge debo samuel week 138 scrimmage yards three touchdowns 36 ppr points that came on three rushing attempts and four targets and one total air yard. 138. Incredible. He's so good. It's so cool to have it. What'd you say? King of yak. Yeah. I mean, I test was that the first touchdown he had was one of the most impressive touchdowns I've seen of the season to have the contact
Starting point is 00:22:14 balance to shake off that tackle. And then the just acceleration burst and explosion through the middle of that, that I guess field was just unbelievable. That was wild that he scored on that. Can I say something before I forget? I'm sorry. Tonight we have a live stream. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football
Starting point is 00:22:30 today. And it's at 7.30pm. We have it every Monday night. This one you're definitely going to want to tune in for. Scott Fish is going to be joining us. The Scott Fish. He is going to be giving away a signed jersey to anyone who donates to Fantasy Cares.
Starting point is 00:22:46 Be a part of that tonight. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. It's 7.30 p.m. Eastern. Also, whatever. I'll talk to you guys about Cable Guy later. I mean, Adam just had the worst takeover. It's never on TV. We're just blasting him for it in the private chat.
Starting point is 00:23:04 He's like, it's a terrible movie. You want to know how I know why? It's never on TV. It's never on TV. And we're just blasting him for it in the private chat. He's like, it's a terrible movie. You want to know how I know why? It's never on TV. It's never on TV. It's true. Great movies are on TV all the time. What a horrible take to say that if something's not on TV, it's not good. Or if something's on TV, it's good.
Starting point is 00:23:14 Think about all the Jim Carrey movies that replay on TV over and over are not good, but they're just on over and over and over again. No. Think about all the Jim Carrey movies that you see on TV all the time. You know what you never see? You never see Cable Guy because it's arguably his worst movie. You also don't see Ace Ventura 2,
Starting point is 00:23:31 which Thomas Schaefer loves, I'm pretty sure. He loves Ace Ventura 2. No, that's not you? Who likes Ace Ventura 2? You name my favorite Jim Carrey movie? It's got to be Truman Show because you're so pretentious. No, I love Truman Show.
Starting point is 00:23:44 I don't know how watching Truman Show makes you pretentious because you're so pretentious no i love truman show i don't know how watching truman show makes you pretentious though i am pretentious but it is another movie that would also be that's your hint yeah that's what i was saying it's gotta be like a serious movie because stan the serious movie that i freaking love i could watch it i've seen it like 25 times i could watch another 25 you want is it? You want another hint? A serious movie. Unbelievably cool concept that's never been done in movie history before. So a brand new concept. Oh, Vanilla Sky.
Starting point is 00:24:11 Vanilla Sky. No, that's not even a Jim Carrey movie, though. That is a movie I love. That's not a Jim Carrey movie. But this is another Vanilla Sky-like movie. Man on the Moon? No. You guys should be able to get this, I feel like. I don't is it eternal sunshine oh that's that's what i meant unreal movie just an unreal movie we
Starting point is 00:24:32 don't why don't movies why aren't movies made like that today like everything we watch is a remake of some bs like i want a cool novel new idea you're in a relationship there's a surgery that you can erase your mind erase your your memory of that relationship. What happens? Like, they're just cool. That's such a good concept. Like, where are movies like that, Adam, these days? Like, you're telling me to watch a movie. Okay, I'll watch Christmas Vacation.
Starting point is 00:24:53 But, like, I need more novel, cool concepts, you know? Well, Christmas Vacation is very novel and very cool back when it came out, I'm sure. All right, Jacob, you're up now. Sorry. Debo Samuel's great. What else? Some more fun with air yards, Elijah Moore,
Starting point is 00:25:07 uh, 255 air yards this week with Joe Flacco under center over his past two games. He has 21 targets and 383 air yards. It's 26% of Cleveland's targets. 48% of the air yardage. They're not amounting to much because the often sucks. Um, but it's cool we
Starting point is 00:25:26 haven't really seen elijah moore do anything in a while um nico collins without tank dell could truly be like a league winner as a phrase we use a lot but 35 percent target share on the year without tank dell on the field when nico's been on the field and take dell has been off 130 routes so roughly four games worth of data 35 percent target share wow love it um trey mcbride man arizona really couldn't get anything going this week but trey mcbride still had a good fantasy day eight of 13 receptions for the cardinals were accounted for by Trey McBride 89 of 145 receiving yards on the year Trey McBride has a higher target per route run rate than Travis Kelsey 27% for McBride 26 for Kelsey 2.22 yards per outrun for McBride compared to 2.25 for Kelsey so basically identical per route data and Kelsey's numbers are identical to last year.
Starting point is 00:26:25 We've talked about how he's not playing as well this year, but the exact same per route data as he had last year. And that's the level that McBride's playing at. Jonathan Mingo. Yeah. We haven't talked about at all this year because there's been... Jonathan Mingo ate my baby. Go on.
Starting point is 00:26:43 There's been nothing to talk about, but targets this week 39 percent target share 26 percent was his previous high he was used in pre-snap motion more this week he had three targets out of pre-snap motion uh first time he's had doubled it or more than one pre-snap motion target so that's cool um it's getting tough to trust thielen and and really at this point, you probably just can't trust anybody. But Mingo is somebody they drafted high and was always a project developmental type of player. So maybe he'll kind of come on here at the end of the year. That would be cool.
Starting point is 00:27:16 That's pretty much it. Devon Achan was right back in the mix. He broke five tackles this week. He's broken at least four in every game that he's played a substantial snap rate. The other thing was, did Raheem Mostert get hurt? I didn't know the exact right way to split it. I didn't watch the end of this game. When quarterbacks come out because of a blowout,
Starting point is 00:27:40 I typically just go to true media and split when that starting quarterback was on the field who played. I went over this pretty extensively yesterday, and then i watched the game again today and what i would say is most it was clearly the rb1 in the first half and the game was pretty much over early in the third quarter and most i don't know if he played a down in the fourth quarter i mean he he did he played he toua kept playing while Mostert did not. But Mostert was definitely ahead of A-Chan, the clear number one, until about midway through the third quarter.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Then it was pretty much all A-Chan with a sprinkle of Jeff Wilson. But I would also say that A-Chan looks so good that it wouldn't surprise me if the roles were flipped next week or if it's really, really even next week. But no, it wasn't one of those situations where the starters left at the same time.
Starting point is 00:28:27 I'd say Mostert left in the third quarter probably. I don't know if he played at all in the fourth quarter. And Tua stayed in and just handed the ball off. That's basically what I saw. Yeah, in the first half, 66% snap rate for Mostert compared to 41% for A-Chan. Nine rushes for Mostert, three for A-Chan. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:45 I still am concerned as a Mostert manager, but I think without Jeffrey Simmons, I think they both could score again on Monday. We'll take it week by week, but I basically think that if Mostert doesn't score a touchdown in any given week, you could be looking at a really bad week from him. But I also
Starting point is 00:29:01 think he's one of the most likely players to score a touchdown except A-Chan. I think I want to go ahead and say that I'd rather have A- he's one of the most likely players to score a touchdown. Except a Chan. I think I want to go ahead and say that I'd rather have a Chan rest of season than most. Uh, well, how high are we willing to rank a Jan rest of season in general? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:16 It's hard to say probably like top has to be RB one teenish. Top. What? Eight issues. No, I'd say like 15. Cause I think there are enough guys that have so much work at this point. You know, I'd say like 15 because I think there are enough guys that have so much work.
Starting point is 00:29:27 At this point, you know, I'd have to take Kyron Williams over him. I would take Zach Moss over him. I know Moss had a disappointing game
Starting point is 00:29:33 and he played almost every single snap. I would take Rashad White over him. I would still take guys like Saquon Barkley over him, but I think if you're
Starting point is 00:29:42 looking at like Eckler and Brees Hall, I think it's, looking at like Eckler and Brees Hall. Jameer Gibbs. I try not to flip my opinion after every game. Gibbs is super hot. Brees Hall still catches six passes every game. I don't want to be too reactionary. But A-Chance is just amazing.
Starting point is 00:30:03 As I told you guys, I sent you an email. Tyreek Hill had a 78-yard touchdown catch. On that play, A-Chan lined up out wide against a linebacker, and it took him about a half a second to completely abuse him. He would have been wide open for his own potential 78-yard touchdown pass, but Tua selfishly threw the ball
Starting point is 00:30:21 to Tyreek Hill instead. So I just think A-Chan's capable of doing some amazing things out there. It was on display again. It's up in the air, man. I don't know how to accurately rank him. All I know is I'm pretty happy if I have him on my team. Yes.
Starting point is 00:30:36 A couple of the notes on the Texans. Damian Pierce had a better fantasy day, but he still only played 38% of the snaps. So not necessarily trusting that. But Noah Brown, you might be able to trust he led the team in routes run he didn't do anything this week it was basically all nico collins but we've seen him be productive at times and he kind of slides right into the role that tank dell was playing that's how they were using brown when he was producing earlier in the year so
Starting point is 00:31:00 definitely worth a pickup absolutely i'd say it's's probably more of a don't drop Noah Brown thing. I think he's about 75% rostered. But yeah, don't get too upset here. He had one deep target. He was open and Stroud missed him. I didn't really see a lot, but I have a feeling Stroud had one of his worst games. I don't think he played all that well. I saw some misthrows from him.
Starting point is 00:31:23 I don't know if anybody has any. I don't know if it's off target rate or anything like that, but it didn't seem like the best game. He had somebody wide open up the middle of the field. It could have been a long touchdown and he missed them. He had a tight end on like a bootleg kind of play that could have been a nice game and he missed him. So,
Starting point is 00:31:38 all right. That's good stuff. How about Lynn Bowden? Remember him? Yeah. He's playing like every snap for the Saints and doing nothing, just like A.T. Perry in previous weeks. They get nothing out of those guys.
Starting point is 00:31:51 22% off target rate for C.J. Stroud was his second highest mark of the year. Okay. There you go. The eye test proved that I'm right. Yeah, it just didn't look sharp to me. But maybe the Broncos had something. Actually, I don't think the Broncos had anything to do with that. I think he just had a bad game. I don't think Tank Dell being out is going to me. But maybe the Broncos have something. Actually, I don't think the Broncos have anything to do with that. I think he just had a bad game.
Starting point is 00:32:06 I don't think Tank Dell being out is going to help. No, you know, someone asked me a really interesting question. He said, I have Herbert and Stroud, and I want to drop one of them for Josh Dobbs. Ugh. And Dobbs
Starting point is 00:32:21 isn't even guaranteed to be the starter. Because Herbert plays the Broncos twice in the next four weeks. Stroud no longer has Tank Dell. I wouldn't drop him, though, because I think he'll carve up Tennessee, which he plays twice in the fantasy playoffs. And then Stroud, I mean, and Dobbs,
Starting point is 00:32:37 if he keeps the job, he's got this high rushing floor most weeks, and he's got Justin Jefferson. And again, you don't want to react too strongly. He had a terrible game last time out, but against the Bears. But before that, he was scored like 28 points
Starting point is 00:32:54 or something three weeks in a row, and now he's getting Justin Jefferson? I kind of feel like if he keeps the job, he's going to be better than Justin Herbert. It's possible. We'll get to it in the four big questions, obviously. So I don't want to tease too much of it. And that's for an Austin Eckler assessment, but I did obviously watch the Patriots chargers on tape. Saw some Justin Herbert as well. Something is off there
Starting point is 00:33:16 in LAC. And I thought that Kellen Moore would fix this thing. But in reality, I think the big issue with this offense with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer out is there's no vertical threat going on. And this is what I always talk about. Are you challenging every blade of grass as an offense? And with Justin Herbert's arm, you really should always be. And I thought that was what Callum Moore would bring a vertically oriented offense. And I think he wants to, but there's issues on the offensive line right now, specifically in the run game. They can't block at all.
Starting point is 00:33:40 And then that's carrying over to the pass game. It's making them one-dimensional with no vertical threat so everything is really breaking in or breaking out above this around the sticks and that's just not an offense that is very explosive or very i can have much confidence and it's reminding me a little bit of last year when they lost rashaun slater like week three or four remember adam we were discussing like how bad could this get for the charge offense it got really bad um and i'm starting to worry about that rest of season. I know you watched the tape of Eckler. We're going to talk about him.
Starting point is 00:34:08 He's one of our big topics, but I am wondering how much the weather factored in to, it was windy and it was really windy. Yeah, I agree. And I'm a big proponent of windy, what windy, cold weather pad for quarterbacks,
Starting point is 00:34:20 bad for passing game makes a bigger difference than people realize. So I can give it that, but I see some issues and flaws within their just offensive design right now okay so look we're a little behind um we'll get to our i think we'll get to our big topics there was only one player that dan watched on film that's not part of our big topics i think that's priest hall right no it's chuba hubbard hubbard i'm sorry all right so tell me what you saw from chuba hubbard who had a great game. Yeah, like, I don't remember off the top of my head,
Starting point is 00:34:48 but 100 yards and two touchdowns, something like that for Hubbard. So go for it. Dan, bonus points if you can incorporate this at all. We've got this question four times in the chat. Dan, please explain different types of running schemes so I don't draft Damian Pierce, et cetera, next year. Well, Damian... Sorry, go ahead, Jacob.
Starting point is 00:35:03 I do think that'll be something we'll emphasize this off season uh fantasy points data has this cool like ability to function based off like man gap schemes or zone schemes and who's performing well and I think that's something you recognize a lot better than me I haven't gotten that deep into understanding offensive line play um but I'm curious what you think of Carolina in particular here yeah and that's a good point with Damian Pierce I think we all kind of I don't want to say fell into that trap. I was off on Pierce to right, right before, right at the end of August, mostly because of offensive line issues, but he was like, this should have been the perfect fit for him, the outside zone scheme for his style of running.
Starting point is 00:35:35 So anyway, just to kind of give a brief overview of that, cause I know Adam's going to kill me if I spend too much time on something like this, there are zone-based blocking schemes and power gap-based blocking schemes. Most teams mix them up. Some teams are heavy, really heavy, like the Pat Shermer Giants of yesteryear were almost exclusively inside zone, like 95% plus. But most of the good teams like to mix it up. So essentially, power gap means you're pulling. So you could be pulling a guard. You could be pulling a tackle. You could be pulling a tackle. You could be leading with the guard and the tackle. G lead is a very common power gap concept.
Starting point is 00:36:14 There's also pin pull concepts, which essentially you're using the wide receivers to pin down and then you're pulling linemen. Those are all power gap concept plays. Now, zone plays are could be inside zone or outside zone. And, you know, those plays are usually with the smaller, more athletic offensive lines you'll see in the NFL where they're kind of blocking in space to a point. And also on those plays, you can also have something that is oftentimes for people like me who are watching the tape confusing, which is to know if a play is inside zone or if it is duo and a double team. And that is considered not a zone play it's considered
Starting point is 00:36:46 a power gap play and that gets very confusing when you watch because inside zone looks a lot like duo uh which is you know essentially double teams uh and power and a man concept so power gap more man zone more blocking into space but that's kind of the quick overview of that and some runners are great vision cutback runners like a dalvin cook was amazing for his own scheme dalvin cook in a power gap scheme i wouldn't want to see him there same goes for like a james cook type player uh those cutback style players and you have like a saquon barkley for example the opposite great in power gap you want to get him out into space let some blockers get ahead of him instead of kind of letting him be like a one cut type of runner. Okay. It's funny that you
Starting point is 00:37:25 bring up cook. Cause he's one of the most heavy used in gap runs. The bills are, yeah. You said they mix it up a lot for reference. The most, like the highest zone rate is 69% for the cold 68% for the Eagles. So like, it's going to be pretty balanced no matter where you're at. Yeah, exactly. Some teams do more of one or the other. Um, now as far as Chuba Hubbard goes, it's interesting. We talk about this cause that's kind of where, you know, in my notes I have down just has a really great feel for outside zone and they ran a ton of outside zone, the Panthers. And to me, it's just his understanding of where the cutback lane is on these outside zone runs is phenomenal. And he also has some really nice decisive jump cuts to get him into the position. He gets really skinny in between the gaps and the holes to Albert is a guy who had great tape in college, but everyone kind of looked at him like, eh, he probably doesn't have the
Starting point is 00:38:13 speed to make the jump to the next level or the quickness or really any trait whatsoever. So let's let him fall in the draft. And then sometimes these guys were just really good processors of something like outside zone, for example, here had that great feel for when to make the cutback or when to hit the cutback lane, when to make the jump cut are just productive runners. Like they're just consistent at the NFL level. It doesn't always work. Like you see Clyde Edwards, a layer didn't work with him. The speed of the NFL game was too much for him. But for Chuba Hubbard, it doesn't feel that way.
Starting point is 00:38:40 And honestly, this is running behind Carolina Panthers offense line. It's been terrible this year. And I feel like he's maximized the offensive line versus a miles Sanders who has not maximized the offensive line and maybe was, you know, buoyed or propped up by the Eagles offensive line last year to look decent. So I like what I seen from Hubbard. I don't think there's any reason for the Panthers to change what they're doing right now and give more touches back to miles Sanders. Although none of these players are really featured ultimately in the passing game in this game, or haven't been featured much in general in the passing game.
Starting point is 00:39:09 I don't think that'll change. I think Hubbard will continue to be their goal line, red zone guy and their lead touch guy, because he just runs much better behind the scheme. And they, I don't have the numbers in front of me. I could go back and look, but just from my notes,
Starting point is 00:39:20 they did run some, you know, some power gap man concepts, but there was a ton of outside zone here ton of outside zone some inside zone but what a big majority outside zone for chuba hubbard in this game and that's a good thing yeah i looked it up um in fantasy points data suite and miles sanders is actually average more yards per carry in man gap concept runs um but hubbard has been significantly better on zone runs. I think he just fits the scheme better. It's maybe similar to what we've seen in Houston with
Starting point is 00:39:48 Pierce and Singletary. He was just to pour a little cold water on it. He was facing Tampa Bay without two starting linebackers. Two very good starting linebackers. Advantage there. I don't really trust them. I don't really trust the running back on the team.
Starting point is 00:40:03 He also had five targets in Week 12. He had zero targets in this game. He doesn't have a consistent role in the passing game. So I think it's good that Chuba Hubbard, we can at least talk about him as a flex, maybe a low-end RB2, but he doesn't have my trust yet. I don't think a lot of playoff teams
Starting point is 00:40:23 are going to be winning their league with Chuba Hubbard personally. But let's see. Maybe he can keep it going. He's got a decent schedule going forward. Alright. So, with that said, we'll get into our four big topics. And let's go to
Starting point is 00:40:38 topic number one from HipsterDoofus21. Okay. Can we trust any wide receivers on Washington, Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Cleveland, New England, the Giants, or the Jets in the fantasy playoffs?
Starting point is 00:40:55 If not, that's one quarter of the NFL teams that are hands-off for wide receivers in fantasy. Fair question. Let's start go team by team here um washington with terry mclaurin coming off a goose egg obviously john dotson's role has been unpredictable i am curious if washington makes the move to jacoby persett at some point that's what i've heard whispers of i don't see why they would i think hal's shown enough but i can't say I have any confidence there. No. Carolina? Hell no. I mean, you could talk about Jonathan Mingo ate the baby, but
Starting point is 00:41:29 Jonathan, I can't believe I used that joke twice in a show. It's more Thielen. I mean, Thielen was a top four wide receiver the first second half of the season. I can't trust that anymore. The teams were Washington, Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Cleveland, Patriots, Giants, Jets, and I'm going to sum it up and say this.
Starting point is 00:41:47 Yes, I'm still starting Garrett Wilson, but I really hope they go back to Zach Wilson. That would make me confident in him. Hopkins is coming off a huge game. By the way, it's like the saddest thing that's ever had to be said in any game. Yeah, I know, but he's their best quarterback. So I think Sala did what he had to do. He gave in to the crowd. Probably, maybe
Starting point is 00:42:06 to the locker room. Who knows? And now we all saw it with our eyes. Zach Wilson is probably their best quarterback. So that would help me with Garrett Wilson. He's, I would say, by far my favorite on this list. Hopkins, maybe. He has, with Will Levis, he's basically just a
Starting point is 00:42:22 deep ball guy. His ADOT is something like 18 to 19 yards. It's insane. So that's going to be a very inconsistent bumpy ride. I have more stats on him if we want to get into that. I would actually say that Joe Flacco to Amari Cooper might be the most reliable
Starting point is 00:42:37 one. I was going to say the same thing. Flacco had almost 500 air yards last week. Is that the number, Jacob, or this past game? Yeah, I think it was over 500. Over 500 air yards. That's unheard of in the NFL these days. No one does that. And he almost made...
Starting point is 00:42:53 That's the thing. Flacco to Cooper or Flacco to Moore if Cooper is out is the only thing that intrigues me here on this list, I think. The only thing? I think Garrett Wilson still intrigues me. Demario Douglas feels like a very good PPR. He's a guaranteed 10 PPR points, basically.
Starting point is 00:43:15 Oh, we're talking about like a flex final thing. Yeah, PPR flex, sure. There are some good receivers here, but I've lost faith in Terry McLaurin. I've lost faith in Adam Thielen. I've lost faith in Terry McLaurin. I've lost faith in Adam Thielen. I've lost faith in, not total faith, not dropping Marquise Brown, but I don't want to start him at the moment. And Hopkins is going to make me crazy,
Starting point is 00:43:33 but I think probably a little, could be a little overhyped after this most recent game. Jacob, what do you think? Hopkins has three good games this year. They've all come against teams that are top three in cover three rate. Cover three is the most commonly used coverage scheme in the NFL. And DeAndre Hopkins is top five on the year in target per hour run rate when facing cover three.
Starting point is 00:43:55 He only has one more matchup where he's going to see a lot of cover three. That's against the Seahawks. He has two more matchups against the Texans, which is a particularly bad matchup for him. The Texans really prevent deep passing and perimeter-wide receiver targets. Wow. Interesting. Okay, and they're much better with Jimmy Ward, who was back last week.
Starting point is 00:44:13 Okay, so anything else on this topic, guys? I just want to say I definitely don't trust Marquise Brown or Rondell Moore or anyone in Arizona. I watched that offense now a few times. That offense is looking to get rid of the football early and underneath. Curtis Samuel is the guy who I've kind of been going to for like DFS and stuff with Washington. That's like the closest you're going to get to trustworthy there.
Starting point is 00:44:35 It is crazy though. Like, as they say in the, in the email right there, that's a one fourth of the teams in the NFL. It's 25% of the league. We can't trust a single passing game there. It feels like this is one of the league. We can't trust a single passing game there. It feels like. This has
Starting point is 00:44:45 been one of the worst years, honestly. Easily the worst year of fantasy football in my entire lifetime since I started playing the game. I played the game in middle school. It's unbelievable what happened this year. Yeah, it's quarterback position just decimated this year, but I think I do like the fact that McLaurin
Starting point is 00:45:01 spoke up and said he did a lot of cardio in yesterday's game. Maybe squeaky wheel. I do like the squeaky wheel gamein spoke up and said he did a lot of cardio in yesterday's game. Maybe squeaky wheel. I do like the squeaky wheel game. We could get a squeaky wheel out of him. Yeah. There it is. Squeaky wheel.
Starting point is 00:45:12 All right. With that squeaky wheel, we'll take a break. When we come back, we'll talk about how to use your bench in your fantasy playoffs. Austin Eckler and one other topic. Oh, Zero RB. The year of Zero RB. We'll give you some stats on that. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the
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Starting point is 00:46:33 to anyone who donates to Fantasy Cares. That is amazing. A signed jersey. I don't know how many he has, but I love it. All right. Tyler Park says, who can we target for bench spots in the playoffs? Handcuff running backs, extra DST,
Starting point is 00:46:50 maybe a couple late breakout rookies? Jacob, what do you got? Yeah, we've been talking about the handcuff running backs each week. I think the defense, if you've got the space for it to mix and match your defenses, I think that makes sense. And there's so many like we've talked about there's so many bad quarterbacks right now that you can definitely find you know defenses they're gonna have favorable matchups um so that's intriguing i don't have much from a stash standpoint in terms of like receivers i kind of thought that i might but the more i looked at it, like, I don't know. There's not, like, Jonathan Mingo. Josh Palmer stands out to me.
Starting point is 00:47:26 Is he coming back? I don't know. He might. I think they said he's not necessarily out for the season. Something like that. So, yeah, Palmer is a good one to stash, especially if... Saints DST is a really good stash with Giants and Panthers as their next two matchups.
Starting point is 00:47:42 Yeah, I have a whole list of DSTs. It's... One of the DSTs that I said, oh, you have to stash them, you have to stash them, was the Chiefs. And they've been playing pretty poorly lately. But after this game against Buffalo, they finished with the Patriots, Raiders, and Bengals in the fantasy playoffs.
Starting point is 00:47:58 I think before we get into DSTs, Roshon Johnson, pick him up. We'll talk about him during waivers. Handcuffs, for sure. Dearness Johnson, you still have a chance to pick up Dearness Johnson right now. If you could do it, I think you should. I think he's the handcuff to ETN, and ETN's hurt.
Starting point is 00:48:14 He's going to play, but he's hurt. The Ravens are interesting. Odell Beckham, I think, could have a big finish. Isaiah Likely, maybe. Darren Waller, if you need a tight end might not be the worst person to gamble on he's 51% rostered I did have Josh Palmer
Starting point is 00:48:29 on my list Jalen Hyatt I don't really buy it but I don't really buy it with Hyatt but you know and then Demario Douglas 50% rostered could give you a nice PPR floor for DSTs you know I have so many names on this list that I don't really think that you need to spend time on a second DST unless you're in a deep league. They will come and they will come up and you won't really be competing against many fantasy managers at that point in your season. So I don't think it's a huge deal, but the Bears have been playing really well lately, actually. And they've got a good schedule after this week against Detroit.
Starting point is 00:49:07 Green Bay has the Giants, then the Bucks, then the Panthers, then the Vikings. Houston has good matchups. I really like the Colts right now. The Colts have 21 sacks in their last four games. They don't have that good of a defense, though. But they're facing the Bengals next week,
Starting point is 00:49:24 then the Steelers, then the Falcons, and then the Raiders. All four of those teams have a backup quarterback or a quarterback who was benched at some point this year. So that's the Colts. Still think the Chiefs finish strong with the Patriots, Raiders, and Bengals, as I mentioned. Rams have a good schedule.
Starting point is 00:49:41 The Saints, they have Carolina, then the Giants, then the Rams and the Bucs. Dan mentioned that one. And the Jets should finish strong. Houston and Miami are the next two games for the Jets.
Starting point is 00:49:52 They can still be good, but Washington and Cleveland in weeks 16 and 17 could win you a league. So don't drop them if you can. But again, there's enough there.
Starting point is 00:50:00 I don't know that you really need to stash a DST. But cut the fat, right? I mean, there's no need to get handc't know that you really need to stash a DST, but cut the fat, right? I mean, there's no need to get, get handcuffs, get guys who have upside. Um,
Starting point is 00:50:11 I'm trying to just like some boring ho-hum player that you've been, that you have on your team. You don't need anymore. I think T Higgins is one bad game away from being droppable. Honestly, I know that sounds crazy, but I'm trying to think of like Jerry Judy. You don't need to roster Jerry Judy anymore
Starting point is 00:50:25 I'd much rather I'd rather roster Dearness Johnson than Jerry Judy crazy how much that flip last year was you don't need to roster Court and Sutton Jerry Judy's going off and now it's Sutton it's just interesting yeah so you get it I I think y'all know what I'm talking about
Starting point is 00:50:41 alright let's go to Austin Eckler here Dan you can have the floor Ebes 70 says what to make of Austin Eckler yeah I think y'all know what I'm talking about. All right, let's go to Austin Eckler here. Dan, you can have the floor. Ebes 70 says, what to make of Austin Eckler? Yeah, I think Austin Eckler is a really good lesson for fantasy managers. We have been seeing stats lately and trends lately that show a big decline in fantasy production and NFL production from running backs when they hit the 27-year-old slash 28-year-old age range. This is even more so true for backs with tread on their tires, a lot of touches in their career prior to the 27, 28-year-old mark. There's outliers, of course, Derrick Henry. I wouldn't consider much of that. He's 265 pounds and ran a 4-4 coming out of college.
Starting point is 00:51:18 He's a freak of nature, human athlete, specimen, genetic freak. So I'm not going to just look at him and be like, oh, Derrick Henry did it, so anyone can do it. Um, so you look at the majority of these backs and there is this fall off period. And I think Austin Eckler is going through that fall period. That's what I'm going to say here. Now I watched the tape this week and part of the issue is certainly the blocking. Um, they ran a lot of outside zone and it was an absolute struggle for Austin Eckler. He was a little better when they ran, like, pull lead and power gap concepts. But ultimately, you know, fourth rush of this game, fourth attempt goes to Josh Kelly.
Starting point is 00:51:52 I don't think that's coincidence. I think it's by design. Austin Eckler, to me, doesn't look like he's creating much forced missed tackles in space. He's not creating that much drive in yards after contact. He still is a great processor. Like, some of these runs, he's finding the lane that he shouldn't find. He's so small that he can get, you know,
Starting point is 00:52:09 low to the ground, always that low center of gravity and small and ski through gaps, but there's not much explosiveness or burst in his game right now. At least it doesn't look. And obviously part of the issue, like I said, was a lot of these runs are just blown up from a blocking standpoint versus the Patriots run defense,
Starting point is 00:52:24 the Patriots. You know, I know they have a million injuries on defense, but their run defense throughout the history of Bill Belichick and until Bill Belichick is not coaching that team is going to be one of those gap sound run defenses you'll ever see in NFL. They were that way last week against the Giants. Despite having a bad defensive game overall, they've been that way forever. They're a gap sound run defense. So this is part of the problem, but it's not like this is the one game where austin eckler's been struggling that's the thing just look to be creating much on his own right now in my opinion pff has the chargers with the worst run blocking grade yeah in the nfl for sure and that's obvious too and that's the biggest issue here but i just think when you watch the tape there's also just not
Starting point is 00:53:01 much juice right now with him yeah did you mention the high ankle sprain? Yeah, he's playing through that. Correct. So he I don't know. I don't know how. I don't know if it's still a problem, but guys often struggle after high ankle sprains. Barkley a few years ago, Jonathan Taylor last year. You just don't get the best versions of these guys.
Starting point is 00:53:22 And it's possible that that's still a problem there. Plus, we know for fantasy standpoint, like a big reason why Austin Eck austin eckler in fantasy was because that joe lombardi scheme that funneled targets through him and that's not how kellen more operates and that's not how the charger's operating right now that's a good point 21 percent target per hour and right for austin eckler this year down from 30 to 21 that's a huge huge drop off this ain't coming back by the way. And this is a good lesson for drafts, by the way, as we continue to get to our final question here today, as I'm going to have a nice long spiel on that one, but I'll keep it short for you, Adam. Well, is anybody
Starting point is 00:53:54 also actually couldn't ask for a much better schedule. His next four opponents through the end of the fantasy season, they're all bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed to running backs, including Denver twice, and they're the worst. They give up 10 in yards per carry allowed to running backs, including Denver twice, and they're the worst. They give up the most yards per carry to running backs. His next four opponents are
Starting point is 00:54:10 27th, 22nd, 29th, and 27th in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. So he has had good matchups like the Jets, for example. They also give up a lot of receiving yards to running backs, and he had two catches for 23 yards against them.
Starting point is 00:54:26 But Eckler just faced Baltimore and New England, which is a tough back-to-back. We can't forget that week's, I don't know, 8-10 or something like that. He scored 23, 21, and 21.5 fantasy points in PPR. The schedule lightens up. I don't really think he's going to perform so efficiently. It's just, can he basically get enough work, score a touchdown, have a representative game 80 total yards or something like that?
Starting point is 00:54:57 So, I don't know. Would you rather have Austin Eckler or Devon Achan on your team going forward? Achan. Achan for me as well. Yeah. All right. I agree. But I will say if you have Eckler and you're forced to start him, there's a big difference between Baltimore and New England and Denver, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Denver in his next four games. So with that said, there's also a good opportunity in all four of those games to have similar game script to what we've seen
Starting point is 00:55:25 from the Chargers as of late with no explosive threat in the past game vertically and the offensive line performing the way it's performing. And that's the issue I have. Like these Denver game, I could see 13-10, you know, both Denver games. Even, you know, pretty much all those games besides the Bills, I can't
Starting point is 00:55:42 really see a shootout with the Bills. They're probably going to lose both games to Denver. Yeah, they probably are. They're a horrible football team. They definitely could. They're a horrific football team. They beat the Patriots 6-0. That was embarrassing.
Starting point is 00:55:55 The Patriots have now lost three straight games, giving up 10 or fewer points, I believe. That is never done. Nate Barry has our last question here. Was this the year of zero RB? which has never been done. Nate Berry has our last question here. Was this the year of zero RB? Other than McCaffrey, most round one or two running backs have disappointed some,
Starting point is 00:56:11 if not all of this season. This is the definitive year of zero RB. They're all zero RB. We haven't had a non-zero RB year in years, it feels like. No, you're false. You're so false. We've had some hero.
Starting point is 00:56:25 Fine. That's your hero RB year. Cable guy take of the day. Just complete garbage. No, we've had some hero RB years lately, but since the LaDainian-Domlinson days, we haven't had like the, you draft 10 running backs in your first 12 overall picks,
Starting point is 00:56:37 and it works out. It's been a while since that's worked out. And this goes into what I was saying before, Adam. Most of the guys were projecting as first round picks at running backs going into this year, we're hitting that age cliff, Austin Eckler, Nick Chubb,
Starting point is 00:56:50 who unfortunately got injured. And that's not, you know, as much of a thing, but like there's very few guys right now. Like we'll go into next season with a little more hope. Jameer Gibbs, Brees Hall, Devin A-Chain, A-Chan, sorry, Devon A-Chan. Yeah, you got both names wrong there.
Starting point is 00:57:05 Devon A-Chan, you know, McCaffrey, obviously. But I don't know, man. It just feels like even hero RB. I may make the move. I did a lot of hero RB builds this year. I did one or two zero RB builds. My zero RB builds are the ones that I'm most excited about, to be completely honest.
Starting point is 00:57:18 And I may be making the full switch to zero RB. I am completely done with the idea of using my first two major assets on running backs, though. That's unlikely to ever happen. One of my worst teams this year was my Barkley-Pollard team. Those guys haven't even been that hurt. Barkley missed a few games.
Starting point is 00:57:35 They just haven't been great. At all. But I think you're overreacting a little bit. This year has been... I'll just tell you the top 12 running backs. Six of them, current top 12, not per game, but overall top 12, six of them
Starting point is 00:57:52 were drafted after the top 60. So drafted round six or later. The other six were the first three rounds. Five of them were rounds one and two, and then Travis Etienne was around three pick. But Etienne was around three pick. But Etienne was around three pick where most years he probably would have been around two pick based on where he was in the running back rankings.
Starting point is 00:58:12 It's just we only had, according to Fantasy Pros, we only had eight running backs drafted in the first two rounds. I also feel like with a lot of these ranks, though, Adam, it's like so many of these players lack consistency. Like Etienne, how much of his production is just overall because he had those blow-up touchdown games that we're not even seeing? Well, I mean, yeah, but that's when people, I think, start to nitpick. Like, everybody, almost everybody.
Starting point is 00:58:34 This goes into a larger fantasy argument. I hate when we go by, like, he was RB8 overall last season. It's like, oh, he had a 47-point week. Well, but ETN's been really, really good until recently. Oh, ETN has been really, really good until recently. Yeah. So anyway,
Starting point is 00:58:47 what was I saying? Okay. Over the previous five seasons combined, we had 11 running backs in five seasons finish top 12 and be drafted.
Starting point is 00:59:00 Well, first they were drafted after the fifth round or sixth round or later and finished top 12 we had 11 in the last five seasons combined this year we have six so it's basically two per year
Starting point is 00:59:11 this year we have six so it is much different this year usually usually about eight of the top 12 running backs on average were drafted in the first two rounds and that's why we liked
Starting point is 00:59:23 Hero RRB so much this year it's five plus Etienne in the third two rounds. And that's why we liked Hiro R.B. so much. This year it's five, plus Etienne in the third, plus Raheem Mostert. I'll tell you who the guys are. Mostert is RB2. Rashad White is RB4. Alvin Kamara is RB5. Brian Robinson is RB7.
Starting point is 00:59:38 Can I ask you a question? Pacheco is eight, and Kyron Williams is 12. This does not include David Montgomery and Devon Achan, by the way, who are top 12 per game. Yeah, go ahead. What's your question? Hey, Rashad White sitting at RB4.
Starting point is 00:59:53 That's what you said, right? Yeah. How many points per game is he averaging? And then how many points per game is the RB4 averaging in other years before a running back position has collapsed the way it has in fantasy football? Like this can't be a high number for Rashad White versus the typical RB
Starting point is 01:00:06 four from like 2016. Well, Rashad white is already 10 per game. Okay. So Camara is RB four and he's averaging 20 points per game, which is pretty good. Is that PPR 20 PPR 20 PPR? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:00:19 Like that's much better than RB four last year. Not much better, but better. So I think people might overreact a little bit and get away from Hero RB, but I still think it's a very sound strategy. But Jacob, what do you think about this discussion?
Starting point is 01:00:34 Hit him with the anti-fragility, Dan. We've been talking about this for years. Yeah, I think it all makes sense. We know where we're at now. I have no idea what that means. We've explained it to you far too many times to explain it again. Yeah, right. I
Starting point is 01:00:49 am surprised, really, that a guy that I really didn't think was any good in Rashad White and a guy that I didn't really think was any good in Kyron Williams that they're having these types of years. That's pretty surprising. They easily could have been Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis. I don't know how they didn't could have been Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis.
Starting point is 01:01:06 I don't know how they didn't end up being Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis. So what did we miss? Because I didn't draft any of Rashad White. I was like, I'm out. And it looked brilliant for a while. And then all of a sudden, he's a star. It looked like a great avoid until I tweeted about him and put some game clips on there.
Starting point is 01:01:22 And then he told me he was going to turn it around. And then he did, basically basically from that moment on with with rashad white at least there's like some investment by the team whereas some of these other guys are bringing up like miles gaskin or just there were no investment totally just projecting volume it is funny though how you know um these guys like who who it's almost like with rashad white for example how much of his production has come through the passing game because we didn't it was hard for us i feel like to foresee that role earlier in the season when it wasn't there yeah it has been and really he hasn't i don't nothing i've seen from rashad white makes me think that he's performed well this year his
Starting point is 01:02:01 advanced rushing stuff isn't very good right per route data is not very good whereas that was something that was a potential like upside case for him was that his collegiate per route data was very good um and then last year he had better per route data than leonard fournette who has been somebody who's had 80 plus i think receptions in a season which is. But yeah, this year nothing really stands out. It's just massive volume. He, to be fair to Rashad White, I've pointed this out before, he's had one of the hardest running back
Starting point is 01:02:33 schedules in the NFL. I mean, Minnesota, Chicago, Philadelphia, great run defenses. New Orleans, above average. Detroit, great run defense. Atlanta, when they played them, they had Grady Jarrett, great run defense. Buffalo, terrible. Houston, arguably the best run defense in the NFL. Tennessee with Jeffrey Simmons, great run defense. San Francisco, great run defense. The last two weeks, he's faced Indianapolis and Carolina. He's 15 carries for 100 yards at Indianapolis,
Starting point is 01:02:58 20 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown against Carolina. So he's had a really rough schedule. It's finally lightened up a little bit and he's been much better as a rusher. Okay. Kyron Williams, though, stuns me. Stuns. I mean, nothing about this. His role in the passing game is surprising. That's not something that we've seen from Sean McVay running backs lately.
Starting point is 01:03:17 And then, yeah, I just there was no... He came into the league as a slow third down back and it got no opportunity last year basically and week one he splits evenly with cam acres and now he's just the man yeah the man truly no way to have seen that one coming i don't think given the way that the position had been prioritized in the past by mcveigh yes um everything about his profile coming to the nfl uh it's just a complete shock completely agree with jacob on that and that's gonna happen sometimes in fantasy where there's
Starting point is 01:03:54 no way to tell what's gonna happen in the future and i think that's well you could have you know known like jordan rodry talked about him a lot like that he was the guy. The team liked him, but I think the best case was like, okay, this is probably Gaskin or whatever. This is probably Mike Davis, where it's like, we're betting on volume, and hopefully he gets it. And if he does get it all year, then he'll be useful for fantasy. But I don't think there's any way we could have seen the upside that he's brought. 21.2 fantasy points per game for Kyron Williams.
Starting point is 01:04:22 He is 3 per game. McCaffrey, A-chan, Kyron Williams. He is three per game. McCaffrey, A-Chan, Kyron Williams. It's just incredible. Okay, that is it for today's show. Thank you to Dan and Jacob. I feel like I'm forgetting to bring something up here, but I don't know. Maybe it was Cable Guy.
Starting point is 01:04:41 I don't know if anybody wants to. It's just a really bad movie. It's like really annoying, extremely annoying character, just gr it was Cable Guy. I don't know if anybody... It's just a really bad movie. It's really annoying. Extremely annoying character. Just grating. Cable Guy. He nails on a chalkboard. Okay.
Starting point is 01:04:53 See everybody. Go ahead, Jacob. I'm going to go watch Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. I've never seen it. 2004. I was eight years old when it came out. I think it's a little bit before my time. Thank you, Dan. I saw Elijah Wood was in it. I'm like, that's enough for me. Check it out. It's a really phenomenal movie.
Starting point is 01:05:07 Truly phenomenal. Elijah Wood is the actor. I love Elijah Wood. He's so weird. It's so fun. He's weird in this movie too, by the way, really weird.
Starting point is 01:05:16 He's always weird. Yeah, he is always weird. Ever seen the good son. I'm willing to say eternal sunshine. It's about as mine as a top 25 movie all time for me. If not higher. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:26 Look at this recommendation from Don. Go watch the number 23. That might be the worst Jim Carrey movie. That is not a movie you should watch. Well, I like Jim Carrey. I love Jim Carrey, but that's not me. Okay. Bye, everybody.

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