Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Sleepers, Underachieving Offenses, Ascending RBs (10/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 21, 2024

The Steelers got a big win over the Jets in Russell Wilson's first game (2:30) and we'll talk about George Pickens, Najee Harris and the underwhelming Jets passing game. What needs to change for that offense to click? ... News and notes (16:45) and advanced metrics (19:15) on Jayden Reed, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Sam LaPorta and more including our thoughts on the Giants offense going forward. We also give you some snap share notes (35:55) and what to know about Xavier Worthy and Jared Goff ... Four Big Topics: Javonte Williams Top 12 (40:35)? Chase Brown Top 12 (46:00)? Are there any elite quarterbacks worth paying up for (49:50)? Who are some second half sleepers (56:30)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet. He's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races. And he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. And we welcome you to be on the box score here on Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas.

As we are nearly done with seven weeks of fantasy football, the number one quarterback per game is... Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson is Stan's guess. Jacob? I would have also said Lamar Jackson. I didn't say it was wrong. You can stick with that.

Yeah. It's wrong. It's, of course, Russell Wilson. Shut up. And in six-point per-passion touchdown leagues before Russell Wilson, it was Baker Mayfield. in six-point for passing touchdown leagues before Russell Wilson, it was Baker Mayfield. In four-point,

it was Lamar Jackson. We look forward to watching them duke it out tonight. And if Lamar Jackson scores like 45 fantasy points, I am quitting fantasy football forever because that would mean I would lose on that.

Pittsburgh 37, Jets 15. We'll start with that. But our big topics today are Javante Williams, Chase Brown. Are these guys going to be top 12 running backs moving forward? We talk about just the quarterback position in general and some second-half sleepers. And, of course, we'll have advanced metrics and snap shares

and all those types of things. We see here the Bills receiver stats when Amari Cooper was on the field versus off the field. But here we go. Pittsburgh 37 jets 15. Dan, which team would you like to talk about first jets or Steelers? I think we should definitely talk about the Steelers first because obviously we've got a new offense in place with Russell Wilson. I think Jacob had the best stats on these. I'm going to leave it to him when it comes to the boxes that Najee Harris faced, um, versus with Russell Wilson versus with Justin Fields. I think it just comes down to a very common misconception in sports. A lot of people, you know, don't know why teams will face stack

boxes or defenses who are sitting on short routes or driving aggressively to fill run gaps. And the reality is it doesn't matter who's at running back. That's not what stacks a box. It doesn't matter who's at receiver. That's not what stacks a box. It doesn't matter who's at receiver. That's not what stacks a box or doesn't stack a box. It's all about the quarterback. And that's how defenses scheme to stop offenses. Russell Wilson took shots early. They were completed.

I think George Pickens did most of the work, but they were still high and in the air and catchable. And what that did is it opened up the entire offense. And as Jacob will tell you in a minute, it changed the boxes that Najee Harris saw, which allowed him to have his best game of the season. So I think it's a totally different outlook for this entire team, George Pickens and Najee Harris to me benefit the most for obvious reasons, but this whole offense is going to be different. If Russ is just going to keep taking those shots downfield and nothing tells us he won't because he's not the same player he was. He still can't escape the same way when the pocket collapses and his deep ball doesn't look as good as it used to be,

but he still throws them and he still puts enough air under those things and enough anticipation on his throws that he can get the ball out there. So I think the offense changes entirely with Russ. Okay. Mr. The man with the, with the master stats. Yeah.

I'll refute Dan just a little bit. Derek Henry is one running back where it does matter who the running back is i think personnel is also really big when it comes to stack boxes like how many tight ends you're using how many big sets you're using um so jordan mason leads the nfl with a 37 stacked box raid this year for reference um nazi harris was at 20 with justin fields a quarterback it was only 5% this week the percentage of his rushes versus light boxes went way up as well it was 29% with Fields 52% with Wilson so obviously we saw Najee have the best game that he's had all season um but I also

wanted to point out that the split between him and Jalen Warren was 50-50 this week for the first time all year. And I think if we see them in a more neutral game script, we could see some better days for Jalen Warren, who I'm a huge fan of. Yeah, Najee, look, he had a 13-yard touchdown run on the last play of the game, or the last play of the game for the Steelers. And he ends up with 21 carries, 102 yards, and a touchdown.

He had one catch in this game. No, he had zero catches a touchdown. He had one catch in this game. No, he had zero catches, I think, on one target in this game. And he played the last two games with Jalen Warren back. Najee Harris has played 46% and 49% of the snaps. He did so much of his damage in the fourth quarter, which is encouraging. You know, this is the thing with Najee Harris. If he doesn't score a touchdown most weeks, you're not getting much. And it's been the case really for most of his career.

But we've seen these stretches where the Steelers' offense has played better. He's been on pretty bad offenses for his career. When the Steelers' offense plays a little bit better and starts scoring more, it benefits Najee Harris. So it really, he needs to score. I don't really think he's going to be like a dynamic rusher,

even though he's had two pretty good games in a row. You guys feel free to disagree. I still think it's going to be like a dynamic rusher, even though he's had two pretty good games in a row. You guys feel free to disagree. I still think it's going to be about volume, and it's going to be about touchdowns. This Jets and Devons has been pretty easy to run on this year. They're kind of a shell of themselves, especially in the secondary. They lost two more safeties last night.

They were already without two starters in their secondary, including DJ Reed, their number two corner, which was interesting because it didn't mean Sauce Gardner didn't exactly shadow George Pickens, but he did travel more than he usually does. And in terms of Wilson, Dan, you kind of said it. This was really a George Pickens game. He made three terrific catches.

The touchdown was underthrown. The juggled ball was underthrown. And the jump ball down to the deep ball was a good throw, but also like a better catch. Yeah. Um, Pickens was freaking awesome. Five catches. I will say one thing on that note though, while I do agree with your assessment of the location of the ball on the touchdown to Pickens, what's what stands out to me is the processing, the anticipation, how fast that ball was out from Ross. And that's what they're getting from Ross versus Justin Fields,

Justin Fields, the release time, the way he gets into his drop, all of it takes so long. And that's why the balls were late. A lot, a lot of those throws were late. This was the whole idea behind going to Ross, get the offense more on time, get the ball out faster, give these receivers a chance to make plays. And at least last night, that was the case. We'll see if it can get to you.

I'm going to refute Dan again. The average time to throw is three seconds for us, which is a little bit high. And it's kind of always been a thing with him. And even on in pocket throws is 2.7. The average is 2.5. I'm talking about on that throw on that touchdown. Okay.

Okay. Okay. On specific design. I do think it's still, you're still going to be a better than high. It's still going to be a super high time to throw because russ is like that you're right yeah on those design plays where the re where you can get the ball out it's just the drop back you can watch how they throw the football justin fields has always had kind of it's definitely better than fields and the thing with pickens i talked about this with pickens earlier i think

on the on the preview on the afFC home game preview, think about how differently you'd feel about his game if he had caught two touchdowns that he dropped, his season going into this game. And now there's only one wide receiver in football that has a higher target share than George Pickens, and it's Justin Jefferson. So I'm starting him every week. He's got a high ADOT, but not like super high. It's 13-ish yards. It was over 16 yesterday. So there's going to be some boom or bust profile there.

But if they just start throwing a little bit more and throwing a little bit better, it's like what Heath was saying about Hunter Henry with Drake May versus Hunter Henry with Jacoby Brissett. It's obviously a big upgrade for Pickens. Almost 30% of the team's targets. It's crazy. On the Jets' side of the ball, guys,

they need to start hitting deep balls. They have one completion this year of 30 or more air yards. There are the only other teams with fewer completions, the only teams with fewer completions, zero completions of 30 or more air yards are the Chargers, the Browns, and oddly enough, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But the Jets, I don't know. I look at this team and I'm like, God, they are loaded, right? How do they go out and score 15 points yesterday? Dan, what's your take on the Jets? This is, I mean, from an overall standpoint, not fantasy, I'll give this quick line. I've never seen a team find more creative ways to lose football games than this Jets team.

It is crazy to watch, but from the offensive standpoint, obviously there's frustration here with the addition of Devante Adams and that they still haven't really been able to generate the big plays. Uh, I like that Garrett Wilson saw more time in the slot with the, with, with Adams now on the roster. I think that's a good way to get him easier. Looks more manufactured, factored touches. He obviously had nine targets. I can see watching on YouTube,

but ultimately like, I just feel like this offense is a bit limited. I don't know if it's by the quarterback at this point or by the offensive line, but I don't have too much hope for them really finding any kind of second gear, even with the addition of Adams. That's interesting.

And by the way, Garrett Wilson had a season-high 40% slot rate. But Devontae Adams had possibly a career-high 50.9% slot rate. That number on True Media doesn't track beyond 2017. So Adams was in the league in 2014. But since they started tracking his slot rate, that was the highest, last night was the highest slot rate of Devontae Adams' career.

He, Brees Hall, and Garrett Wilson all had nine targets. Really, almost nothing downfield. And Jacob, you know, I said that, after this chat, I said, the Jets, third in the NFL in pass attempts per game. I think they still are. They're throwing for a decent amount of yards.

They have a quarterback who never runs. That's actually a pretty good recipe for two wide receivers to be really good. They got to stop throwing the ball to Brees Hall, I think, so much. But I still see a scenario where they're both really good. If they both get nine targets a game, Wilson and Adams, that's probably going to be pretty solid. But obviously it needs to be better. And I know everybody's killing Aaron Rodgers, but I would just say like, they're probably, there are a lot of teams that would kill to have Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback.

If you think he's so bad, go watch the Giants game. But, and many other teams, but out of Jacob, what do you think about the Jets? Can they get it going? Can they give us big games? I think they're going to give some big games, yeah. I mean, I have a lot of respect for the Steelers' defense. They might be the best defense in the NFL. The Jets just play so slow, though, that that is concerning. Yeah. Like, seriously, not even close between them and the next slowest team

in terms of average remaining seconds on the clock of the snap of the ball. Um, the slot note for Devonta Adams is really interesting to me too. Um, Garrett Wilson had six of his nine targets from the slot last night. So I would love to see him use that way more. He's one of the receivers who typically playing at the X. I studied this this summer, typically playing at the X, the outside isolated receiver is a good thing for fantasy. It leads to more targets. He's one of the few that has had better splits when he's outside of that. So I was really hoping he'd get moved around more, but then things have just

been so boring and static with Hackett's offense. So maybe better days are ahead for him. The only other Jets that I had was that Braylon Allen only had a 9% snap rate. And so it's like really all funneling through Brees Hall, which is what we want to see for fantasy. I'm willing to give the Jets a little bit of patience here.

At New England, then Houston at home, at Arizona, Indianapolis, their schedule gets a lot better. And this is the first game with Devontae Adams. Rodgers, probably not healthy. You know, he's had all these lower body injuries. Hopefully he can get healthy, but I'm not panicking. I'm still like, not even a question. I have Adams in two leagues. I'm starting him next week. I have Wilson in one league. I'm starting him next week. Of course, you're starting Brees hall. Um, so I I'm willing to be a little bit patient here.

One note on this. I will say this, Aaron, Aaron Rogers, arm town looks just as good as it's ever looked to me, maybe not in his prime, but you know, I don't think that's an issue at all here, but if you do look at some of the end game tape of his days with the Packers, his last season before the injury year. So 2022, there were a lot of issues on tape when it came, when it came to anticipation, when it came to the processing post-nap open receivers that he didn't pull the trigger on a lot of people blamed it on just not having a rapport with those guys. Cause if you'll remember green Bay really recycled that wide receiver room, no Adams, but like, it's not like he has a great rapport with anyone here but adams so maybe that

will be the same season and i guess lazard but you know there's the red zone offense they're just not making the that's where the windows tighten up and they're not throwing a lot of touchdown bats to the jets you combine that with what jacob said which i thought was a great point the slowest offense in the nfl it's not a recipe that I'm going to buy into just having a massive breakout second half. Yeah, it does seem like if you're going to get if you're going to get value from Adams Hall and Wilson, then they're going to have to be one of the best offenses in football. And that's a little bit hard to see right now. What do you think? I'm not talking about, dude dude Adam is not panicking LMAO the Jets were 4-3 with Zach

Wilson last year you don't know ball I'm talking about fantasy football you dope give me a break by the way their schedule is about to get I mean give me a break don't LMAO at me and tell me I don't know ball are you kidding the Jets are going to get healthier on defense they're a shell of

themselves on defense right now and their schedule is about to get easier. Adam's doing his best impression of me right here. I love it. I love it. I love it, too. That comment is completely irrelevant to what we're talking about, which is tennis and football. Yeah, exactly.

I love it. Yeah, the Jets are—I don't think they're going to make the playoffs, but I actually do think they have a lot of talent on their team. And it's like the Bengals are 3-4 right now, right? They were 1-4 two weeks ago. Yeah. I think people think the Bengals have a good chance to on their team. And it's like the Bengals are, the Bengals are three and four right now, right? They were one in four, two weeks ago. Yeah. I think people think the Bengals have a good chance to make the playoffs.

Now they probably didn't two weeks ago. They go and they beat the giants and the Browns and things are looking up. We'll talk more about the Bengals later, but I could see the jets turning their season around. And you know what? Me and Rosie, like, I think we're good.

Like we've, we've, uh, it's all right, bro. You know, I, I appreciate him. He's in, he's like in every chat's all right, bro. You know, I, I appreciate him.

He's in, he's like in every chat. He's pretty funny guy. I didn't appreciate that comment though. All right. We're going to take a break in a moment here, but if you haven't signed up for bed MGM, use the bonus code fantasy.

We can all agree on that. We should all go sign up for the bed MGM app and use the bonus code fantasy. And you're going to get up to a $1,500 first bed offer on your first wager with bed MGM. Now here's how it works. You download the BetMGM app, and you sign up using the bonus code FANTASY. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game, and you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code FANTASY when you sign up on BetMGM. We will take a break, come back with some news and notes, updates on those injured quarterbacks,

and some other stuff from Jacob at the Advanced Metrics, and then we'll get into our big topics. We'll be right back. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig.

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Probably should look in the mirror. But they are at Pittsburgh this upcoming week. I don't think that's going to go well, but he's going to be the starting quarterback. Well, they say he's going to be the starting quarterback after the game. I remain skeptical. I think it's probable, but we'll see. I think there's a chance they could make a change late week. Uh, drew lock drew lock was so bad in the

preseason and he looked horrible yesterday too. So if you're sitting there with Malik neighbors thinking, Oh, drew lock is the answer. I don't know. I don't know. But the only reason I say that I want to be clear is because Adam Schefter tweeted out, uh, retweeted a tweet he sent in September about Daniel Jones's injury guarantee. And that conversations may already be started with among the giants regarding that. Yeah, man.

I totally get it. Okay. But what are the other quarterback injuries? Oh, Sean Watson tours Achilles and Jane Daniels getting x-rays on his ribs. And we don't have an update on Dorian Thompson Robinson just yet he's getting an update he's getting are we going to be robbed of watching Jameis Winston because we have to watch Dorian Thompson Robinson instead I hope not yeah I'm

hoping for Jameis there too running back news there's really nothing wide receiver news uh DK Metcalf they think they avoided serious injury Brandon Ayuk, we're still waiting for confirmation, but they fear it's a torn ACL. And on the offensive line, I'll just update you throughout the week on that. I don't think there's anything huge there. What's the latest on Brian Burns, Dan? He's been playing through this groin injury all year. Really bad, looked really bad yesterday,

limping off the field, but I think he'll continue to play for the Giants. Okay, and they had the second highest pressure rate in the NFL in week seven. I got to think about this for Russell Wilson because they really have the one good thing about the Giants is their pass

rush. They're still playing great football on defense. This is a tough one. Kansas City cornerback Jalen Watson, he fractured his ankle. I've been watching some Kansas City tape just Jalen Watson, he fractured his ankle. Yeah. I've been watching some Kansas City tape just trying to see if they're shadowing receivers with McDuffie, and they really haven't been.

I think Watson has been one of the reasons. He's played pretty darn well. He's been really good. That's a tough break for them. Starting cornerback, going to miss some time. Cincinnati safety Geno Stone has a leg injury. The Jets are super beat up. They're at New England next week. And that's pretty much all we need to cover in terms of news and notes. So Jacob, let's get to some advanced metrics that you'd like to share with the class.

All right. Yeah. I'm going to start with one about Jaden Reed. And I also want to use this as an opportunity to plug the Beyond the Box score show that Dan and I do. It's on FFT Express. You can find it on the YouTube channel on FFT Express. I've had some people tell me they don't know where to find it. They're like, I hear Adam talk about it, but I don't know where it's at. It's right here on YouTube. We do it every Thursday. And we had a great guest last week.

It was Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers. And this week we have Nate Tice coming on. And, Nate, I'm so excited for that one. I know Dan and I both. I don't know anybody who talks ball like he does. He's amazing. He's fantastic. But can I just say something here?

And Thomas, you can correct me if I'm wrong. So I went looking for the Mike Wright episode as well. So you go to youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. And if you click on the Live tab, you'll see pretty much all of our videos. But I don't know if the— It's not live. It's not a live show.

That one, you're not going to find the Thursday Beyond the Box score in the live tab. Usually, I click on live, and then you'll see everything except for that. So you want to click on videos. Go to youtube.com slash fantasyfootballt football today and then click on the videos tab and then you'll see it clearly labeled beyond the box score which could be this one that you're listening to now but you'll be able to tell the difference so um there there will be multiple beyond the box scores there but that's that's why you may not be able to find it because if you hit live you will not find it please hit videos at youtube.com slash fantasy football today go ahead jacob yeah so we talked about some rest of season outlooks last week. And one of the guys that

brought up was Jaden Reed. I was curious what they thought about him. I had a wider C for 10 going into the week rest of season. And I got a lot of pushback that that was too low. And Mike was like, I think that's totally fine. It might even be too high. Um, he's like, I think it's important to remember that week one really influenced all of this per route per target data that we look at with Jaden Reed. Cause he put up such crazy numbers in a game where there were weird weird field conditions and so if you remove week one we're getting a bit azure steady here if you remove week one his per route data really doesn't look nearly as good um and i use per route data rather than just raw data because of course the malik willis games affect things for total numbers um but 21 target per

route run rate since week two seven percent first down per run those rank 37th and 43rd among receivers two yards per run the ranks 22nd among receivers um just thought it was interesting his role hasn't really changed at all romeo dobbs led the packers in targets this week and when dobbs this year he leads the packers in targets stops this so i don't know if you guys have any thoughts on reid do you think maybe we got a little bit too excited with him i know adam you brought up when we've talked about in the past that there really haven't been any highly highly productive receivers who run as high of a percentage of the routes from the slot as he does. Um, so no, and he's got an interesting profile because I don't love the slot rate,

but he is someone that unlike other players that like a Tyler Boyd in the past, I had mentioned as a guy who's been successful, but, uh, with that kind of a slot rate, but you know, unlike a guy like Wandale Robinson,

he's, they will throw the ball downfield to Jaden Reed. So I will say, I think I said it yesterday, the Packers are one of those teams that you start Reed, I guess the difference is like, the difference between the Packers and the Niners

is you're basically starting Debo while you can kiddle every week before the injury and expecting one of them to stink. Your only guy that you're actually starting is Jaden Reed on a weekly basis. And there are going to be weeks where he stinks. Just not enough target volume. They spread the ball out too much. You just have to deal with that. There aren't that many wide receivers where it's like you never, ever expect them to struggle. Reed is going to have some down weeks,

but he is so good and so talented that I still think he's a must-start guy. Probably not top 10, though. I'm with Adam on this. I missed him this preseason because of some of the rates that we just discussed and some of the concepts we just kind of hinted at, Jacob, where like, look, is he going to play a lot? And are the targets going to be there? But he's enough of a big playmaker. And I remember being wrong about him before I watched his tape. I was like, I don't understand why this guy's being talked about.

It's an interesting prospect in the class. And Nick, my co-host on Big Ben, was like, go watch his tape at Michigan was like, I don't understand why this guy's being talked about. It's an interesting prospect in the class. And my, and Nick, Nick, my cohost on big benders, like go watch his tape at Michigan state and you'll see it. Cause he doesn't have that 40 time. He's not huge, but he's a really good route runner. And so I think the key that you mentioned, Adam, is that he can also win on the vertical plane. And that's where some of the big plays could come from. But like you said, the reality of situation is the targets may not be there every week, but in today's landscape and fantasy how many you know every week receivers do we even have like you said adam all right i've got one more question

for you guys is a giant specific and then we'll get on to the regular you know schedule programming talking about brian thomas jr and eric all and everything uh what do you think about the running back split because we saw 67 percent snapper pyro and tracy do you think that's just easing singletary in i don't think it's just easing Singletary in because I feel like Singletary was ready to go healthy for this game. I think some of it was game script dependent with the Giants falling behind. So by so much so early, Tracy is like you said, Jacob, one of their passing out backs.

Now Tracy did miss a blitz pickup in this game, which is not, I'm not going to hold them accountable for that and say like, that's it. Cause it's one play, but it's just something to keep an eye on keep an eye on as as they move forward he's going to have to be good in past production but i think it's clear that they realize he's one of their playmakers and he has to be on the field i would think it's going to be at least a 50 50 split moving forward and dan i talked about malik neighbors yesterday but i want to get your thoughts because i don't want to overreact but it you and I were very nervous about the Andrew Thomas situation.

Is it going to be this bad? What do you think? It's a great topic to get on because he's one of the most important players in fantasy football. And I want to give you credit. All week you said, I've seen it. I've watched it. I know it. And the Giants without Andrew Thomas is a much bigger problem than people realize.

Not every team has this issue, but a team like the Giants who have Josh Azudu as their next tackle, it becomes a major problem because Azudu can't pass product. And they used a player to chip almost every single down. And what that does is it takes one player fewer in the route, which allows one fewer clear out route and more eyes and attention on Malik neighbors. For example, the biggest issue I see is still not that though. Like it's still just the quarterback, but ultimately they're going to be limited taking those deep shots, which neighbors did make some plays on in the early half. A lot of his plays were after the catch, but there's not going to be much as much space to go after the catch. And this was the nightmare. We all were worried about in the preseason. Like,

are they going to be so dysfunctional that Malik neighbors will not be a weekly player? So I am a bit worried about it. Um, but I don't think we're going to see it. A lot's going to change. I don't think Daniel Jones has many more starts in him that think this will probably be his last game of the season against the Steelers. Um, so it's going to change a lot once neighbor, once lock gets in there. So I think we need to just wait this one out a little bit. Yeah. He might struggle this week at Pittsburgh, then the schedule, it's so much better for neighbors. And I think Dan would also, and we can just wrap on this. Also,

you can back me up here. The right side of the giants offensive line was terrible yesterday. And they actually had been pretty good. So I think regression game for a Luminor and for Greg Van Roe in their right tackle regard, that's the issue too, Adam, because some suggested we'll move a Luminor to left tackle to fix it.

That's not going to fix the issue. Right, but they'll probably play better than they did yesterday. All right, Jacob, back to you, sir. All right, Brian Thomas Jr. again led the Jaguars in routes run. That is exciting. That's back-to-back weeks. I thought that might not happen until later in the season, but it's already here. I also wanted to highlight Trevor Lawrence. He's getting the ball up much, much quicker. Average time to throw in the last three games is 2.4, 2.6, 2.37 seconds.

It was at 2.8 before those games. He also has a much, much lower average or off target rate. It's at 6% or lower in each of the past three games after being double digits in each of the first four games. So we're seeing shorter, quicker passing targets to brian thomas jr um i think evan ingram being back helps as well and you know one of those matches against the colts but he also had bears on the road and i thought played reasonably well in that game and then pretty well against the patriots um so i'm i'm i don't know cautiously optimistic about this passing offense going forward.

The schedule in the second half is, is really rough. So I put, I did rest of season rankings last week and I had Brian Thomas Jr. Like, why does he read 30 or something? And people are like, what you've been telling me all year that he's,

you know, like, and it's like, yeah, it's, it's rough. But at the same time, he won against Christian Gonzalez.

So maybe it just doesn't matter. Like he's, you really wide receiver 30? I can't believe that. I was shocked. I missed that. I can't believe that either. I think he's going to be awesome. It was probably too low, but I also have very little faith in the offense and the coaching and every single thing around Brian Thomas Jr. and his offensive environment. Yeah, so we'll see.

It's a lot to ask a rookie receiver to just completely be the driving force behind an entire offense fair yeah all right i'm pretty excited about him though and uh the bears game was in london but uh it's still you know roadish game but the bear the bears are just so good against wide receivers even though they were missing two starters they are so good against wide receivers so i'll give thomas a pass on that one yeah jaylen johnson's a stud for sure tank bigsby i wanted to bring him up he had a 66 snap rate 74 of the running back rushes when it was in the red zone those numbers only went up but i think this is really game script dependent i think he's probably the most clear sell in fantasy football when the jackrush can

control a game on the ground, he's probably going to have a good game, but the next four games are the Packers, Eagles, chiefs, and lions. Great point, right?

Like they're almost definitely going to be losing in those games. Can't see him having any impact. That's a great point. I mean, unless he has a big run again, he's going to be tough start in any of those. Yeah. And then you're right about the passing game.

So yeah. Yeah. Let's keep it rolling. Good vibes good vibes here sam laporta target share by game tips good vibes no it's terrible 18 percent six percent this is target share by game sam laporta 18 six percent nine percent 21 four percent eight percent so he's gonna ask you a question both of you real quick about this i haven't had a chance to watch his tape i don't know if you have jacob or you adam is it possible that he's not being as utilized in the offense because he's not fully healthy um that's interesting i'll look into like some of the i'll probably write about him this week on the in the lab on friday i do think his separation stuff has looked worse than the year before, but still middle of the pack, if I remember correctly.

Okay. Yeah, go ahead. Sorry, go ahead. Below 10% in four of six games. Last year, he was above 10% in 16 of 17 games. I think it's mostly just that he's just not part of the offense, really. This was even a game where Jamison Williams was not targeted. Jamison Williams has four games in a row.

Yeah. Does Jamison Williams have 12 games in a row. Yeah. Does Jamison Williams have 12 targets in his last four games? I think it might be 11. He's a tough start, but he's so good when he gets the ball. It's like one play could change a week, but he's a tough start. Yeah, it's amazing. Amonra is like right there

at like 30% target share, even with all these other guys. He's just an alpha. Good. It's 10 targets in his last four games for Jamison Williams. Okay. This is a really random. No, we don't know what's going to happen with the Browns. If it's Dorian Thompson, Robson, then that's probably a problem. And none of the receivers can be that relevant,

but Cedric Tillman round three pick last year. He was a thought of as a kind of a project receiver um he's shown some encouraging signs but overall hasn't done hardly anything but in the first game with amari cooper he was second on the team in routes ahead of elijah moore 12 targets 127 air yards first on the team in receiving yards with 81 receiving yards so maybe a name to know definitely a guy you should have picked up in dynasty last week and pick him up this week if he's still out there eric all finally ran more routes than mike isicky first time all year didn't do anything um but if you believe in this bangles offense and how well joe burrow's been playing then i think he's he's looking like somebody who might be a

league winner whether it was just acl was the reason they're easing him in or just because he's young i don't know but it seems like he's working his way in where he's like going to be close to a full-time player by the end of the year is my guess. Joe Mixon had 63% of the offensive touches and 54% of the Texans scrimmage yards this week. Alvin Kamara is the only other player to hit both marks. It's bad in Houston right now. They really, really need Nico Collins back. Um, the offense just looks broken. They've been asking Stroud to just do it, just be kind of hear a ball. Um, and then this week that totally fell apart. And so they're just like, I guess Joe mixing, go do it. Like, I don't know. We don't have any answers. Did you guys watch that game?

I actually did. Uh, yeah, go ahead. Go ahead, Dan. No, you go first, Adam. No, I watched... So I wanted to see if Jair Alexander... Because, you know, they got into the fight pregame. I wanted to see if Jair Alexander shadowed Stefan Diggs, and he didn't. And then I just started watching all of their snaps. And the biggest issue to me was pass protection. I believe CJ Stroud was pressured second or third most,

highest rate this past week. 51%. And this Packers defense has been, been like very bottom of the league in pressure going into this game. Yeah. So their offensive line is really not playing well enough right now. Um, I didn't really look like closely enough to see if there was a lot of

separation because the plays were just blown up. So, um, it's look, I mean, it's obviously, I think it's just a Nico Collins thing. Like you said,

when he gets back, it just changes everything. But also I said this on the, on one of our shows last week, at what point in this season or next off season, are we going to hear tank Dell say, well, yeah,

you know what? I'm just, I'm just finally a hundred percent back from my broken leg, right? Like the guy is doing nothing explosive, nothing downfield. Exactly. Right.

Exactly. No. Pollard, I think was a, was an Pollard last year with the same injury, right? Exactly. No. Pollard, I think, was an ankle, maybe the same injury. Pollard had the same injury, yeah. Same concept. Oh, it was the same injury?

Okay. Same concept, right? It's like you get all these reports going into the season. He's 100%. He's 100%. And maybe he is. I don't know.

But then midseason, there was this bombshell, yeah, bombshell in the fantasy community drop. Tony Pollard, not 100% healthy, hasn't been all year. It's like, oh, of course, well, that's why he's been so bad.

So I'm wondering if that's the issue with Tank Dell. And yeah, they have no explosive players with Nico out and this version of Tank Dell. One thing I want to add in is just as good as CJ Stroud is, and I think anyone who watches this can see the way he manipulates a pocket, the arm talent, the ball placement, the anticipation, the velocity. It does happen for a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL, no matter who you are, where once you get into that year two and defense coordinators have what they say is about between eight and 12 games on film.

They can start, if you're especially in the same system, they can start taking away some of the concepts that worked for you. And I read in a crazy stat, I think it was from you, Jacob, and you can confirm if this was from you with the actual stat in a second, but the Packers destroyed the Texans game plan and everything they want to do on offense without blitzing at all. They didn't send extra rushers and yet they pressured shroud the entire game that shows issues with the past production, but also shows issues with the scheme, in my opinion, because it shows that some of these were coverage sacks or coverage incompletions or just issues within the route concepts, issues within what the Texans want to do and how the Packers are tuned in to what the Texans are running from a route combination standpoint. I have to watch the tape to confirm that. I saw that game live, did not watch the tape on it.

So we'll see. But I think there's obviously an issue with the Texans passing game once Nico's not in the game. Yeah, 17% blitz rate and 51% pressure rate. but I think there's obviously an issue with the Texans passing game. Once Nico's not in the game. Yeah. 17% blitz rate and 51% pressure rate. Wow. 17 51 is crazy splits for that. That's bad. Yeah,

that's bad. Okay. All right. We got to get to our four big topics, Jacob. So why don't you wrap, wrap us up? We're wrapped.

Oh, okay. Perfect. And I'll say that, that the Texans, I feel like we could come up with a list of offenses that should be doing better

than they are. What would that be? Texans for sure. The Jets. Even before the Adams trade. The Jets, the Texans, the Eagles. I think the Eagles, the stats aren't that bad, but it just feels like it should be easier for

them and the Bengals the Jaguars for sure and the Bengals to me are another team because we're going to talk about Chase Brown and at the end of the day like Joe Burrow still ranks pretty high Jamar Chase still scoring his touch getting his 49ers is a good one yeah Niners they've had some injuries but Niners should be better I think they'll be better with McCaffrey's back I'm hoping but like the Bengals offense to me needs that easy button. I don't know what's like, why are they not killing it? They're fine. I'm just interested. Cause I know you watch your chase Brown tape. I'm sure you have a lot to say about it. We're going to talk about him in a minute. Let me give you some snap share things here. Zach Sharper and I played more than Ken Walker. I have no idea why it wasn't

even like a fourth quarter blowout thing. Ken Walker was out partying for his birthday. Oh, that's right. He was sick. I forgot about that. So, okay, that's why then. With Amari Cooper on the field, yeah, with him on the field,

Josh Allen threw 11 passes. Five of them went to Cooper. Two went to Shakir. The other four went to two tight ends and two running backs. Keon Coleman did not have a single target with Amari Cooper on the field yesterday. He also didn't

play anymore in the slot. Some people were like, did he move and do some big slot stuff? No. Who? Coleman? Coleman. Devon Achan ran nine routes on third down. Raheem Mostert ran three. We now have 10 running backs averaging 17 or more PPR fantasy points this season.

That is compared to six in each of the previous two seasons. It does include Kareem Hunt, so if you wanted to remove him, fine, but it doesn't include Aaron Jones, who's at 16.9 points per game and left the game early. So that's 10 running backs averaging 17 or more. It's the year of the running back right now.

Tyrone Tracy played 39 snaps. Devin Singletary played 12. You knew that. Alexander Madison played 70% of the snaps. He'd split third down work with Amir Abdullah. It's a great role for him. A guy I'm really interested in as a sneaky buy low, like Dave was talking about buying Chase Brown low

like three weeks ago and it looked like he didn't have much value. Xavier Worthy, he only played 60% of the snaps, but he has 14 targets in his last two games. He had 15 targets in his first four games combined. He could have had a 69-yard touchdown. Mahomes missed him on a deep ball. He needs a better quarterback for sure.

Whoa. JK, but Mahomes does. He missed him on a wheel route in the red zone too. Mahomes overthrew that one They just don't have, their rapport does not down at all to me Agreed, but I do see potential for him to

lead the wide receivers and targets and kind of be like a it's not going to be immediate, but maybe Xavier Worthy put it this way, don't drop him unless you have to try to stash him. Yeah, I like that. I'm fine with that. And the quarterbacks who were pressured the most

in week seven. I'm going to go five to one here. Number five was a tie between the Saints quarterbacks and Joe Burrow. Number four, the Carolina quarterbacks. Number three, C.J. Stroud. Number two, Daniel Jones. Notice, none of these guys really had great games.

Burrow was fine. Number one, this guy has been the best quarterback under pressure this year. He has been arguably the best quarterback just from a passing standpoint this year. Jared Goff was pressured 58.6% of the time, and he is completing what I think was like 85% of his passes over the last four weeks.

Goff is crazy. He's the only quarterback who's been able to solve Brian Flores so far this year. And he was pressured on almost 60% of his dropbacks. Unbelievable. All right, four big topics. When we come back, we'll start with Javante Williams. By the way, that was how teams used to get Jared Goff.

That's what led us to all those bad fantasy days. Whenever you could pressure him, he was bad. Now he has a solution for the pressure. All right, we'll be right back on FFT. So the first two questions are, is this running back going to be a top 10 or top 12 running back? And I just say, based on the stat you just heard me give

about the running backs averaging 17 or more PPR fantasy points, being a top 10 or 12 running back is a pretty high bar this year. It's not that easy. But I know what you mean when you say this question from Patrick. Is Javante Williams in line to finish

as a top 10 running back now? Whether or not he does, I know what you mean. Is he going to feel like it? A must-start guy, right? Let's just say that. We don't have to be nitpicking with is he going to be 10th or whatever.

But Javante Williams is the first one. Is he going to be a top 12-ish running back? I'll alter the question of that. He was only started in 50% of leagues, scored 26.1 fantasy points against the Saints on Thursday. Jacob, you're up first on Javante. Yes, I want to get back to Dan's point about stack boxes, actually. I think that both these backfields are important ones to bring up in this regard.

Javante, he's tied with Zach Moss for the third highest stack box rate i think in his case it has a lot to do with qb play um but with the bangles you wouldn't expect that to have anything to do with qb play right um right i think that's that's a case where it's mostly about personnel the bangles are using two and even three tight ends way more than they ever had before and that's not like i looked it up just to be sure i filtered out plays where mike sick he wasn't on the field because i was worried that maybe he was affecting that because they use him as a receiver but he's like technically designated a tight end but it didn't change anything um they're using like tanner hudson all the time and stuff like that um drew sample all the time and so yeah they're i'm

curious to hear what dan has to say about their running game because i just i know we hate the he hates the coaching over there and i i get it it's it's not been effective um but chase brown has been good so both those guys are contending with that with a lot of stack boxes whether that's due to predictability um because of the coaching or the quarterback play i i don't feel super great about Javante. I dug into him after his game because people have been saying he looked good. He looked better. And people have been saying he's kind of like back.

Nothing has changed statistically. And when I watched the film, it felt like there were just a lot of really huge holes. Yes. Oh, the Saints were horrible. I'll get into this. Yeah, go ahead, Adam. No, the Saints were horrible on Thursday. It was an absolutely embarrassing performance.

But, you know, he doesn't have a run longer than 20 yards this year. In fact, he doesn't have a run longer than 21 yards in his last three seasons, which, of course, had a torn ACL. But that is 337 carries now without a run longer than 20 yards for Javante Williams. But the first two games of the year were bad for him. The last four games of the year, I think the metrics are pretty good. I mean, the like the explosive run rate, the avoid rate, that kind of stuff. So is it just a blip in the radar?

Is it because he's faced some some easy matchups here? I don't know. But the bottom line, like the big thing for me is that he has 17 or more touches in three of his last four games. And the one time he didn't, they lost 23, 16 to a good chargers defense. They had the ball for 22 minutes and 37 seconds. He's been getting about 60% of the running back carries, but he also gets about three catches. Um, so it's enough touches for me to say he goes into the week as probably a starter and you move him up or down based on the matchups. And you have to account for the fact that the Broncos could just have an awful offensive game.

It's going to hold him back. But I'm higher on him now because he's kind of dominating the touches amongst the Broncos running backs. So for me, I think he's mostly dominated those touches because of game script. Broncos are four and three i think that game script will fall apart in the second half of the season and the first three game the carries of this game against the saints were a run to aldrich estimated to start the game a run to giovante williams and then a run to uh jill mclaughlin so it's not like they've just totally phased those guys out they didn't play as much in the end of the game in the middle part of the game because the Broncos had a lead

and Javante Williams is that back for those games. But I watched the tape and he doesn't look at, I just look, he's better than he looked last year off the ACL, but he does not look like the player I watched at UNC at all, at all. He, he almost led the all of college football history in foursmith's tackle rate at unc he's not doing that his biggest run came on a zone a zone run where the hole was wide open and any running back could have run through it and i don't even think he was that quick through the hole so i see no upside in games with bad game script i think he'll get off the field in those games i think he's one of the best sells in fantasy but i would probably wait for the panthers game because he'll probably have another good game

against the Panthers. Yeah, but let me say, okay, so you have to know your league. How savvy are your managers? Because his next three opponents, it's the Panthers, which is the best matchup in fantasy. They are last against running backs.

And then after that, it's the Ravens and the Chiefs, and they are the worst matchups in fantasy. The Ravens are second best. The Chiefs are the best in fantasy against running back. So I think you guys have kind of laid it out nice. Maybe you sell. No, it's a good point.

You sell now. You sell before the Panthers. Sell now. Because you've been the manager. You got this great matchup. You're going to score a lot this week. Take it. Yeah, that's a good point.

It's a good point. I guess I would say if I felt like they were going to be in good game scripts, I'd be more confident in him. You're probably right. I shouldn't buy in. We shouldn't have a lot of faith in the offense really um these next three matchups two of them are absolutely miserable and then tyler bidet could come back at some point and maybe they want to get him well you never know but don't discount the the fact that they

throw to the running back so much that is what is going to help giovante so even in a good history of sean payton fantasy running fantasy football, running backs under Sean Payton is really strong. Dave Richard did a lot of great research on that last off season, but ultimately game script will be the determined factor. I think. All right. We good.

Should we go to chase Brown? Let's do it. All right. This is a fun one here. The question from Patrick is, is chase Brown's usage a sign of a second half top 12 running back. And I kind of made the case for that last night. Um, after evaluating the game, little less optimistic about that, I guess, but still optimistic. But Dan, where are you on Chase Brown?

Um, sorry, I just got a quick notification from, uh, Brian Dave, uh, Brian Dable named Jones the starter. So I take back what I said earlier. He will be starting for this week. Now, as far as Chase Brown goes, watch the film on that. I think Chase Brown is a phenomenal talent. He had a 28-yard run that was called back by a holding penalty. That kind of changed the total stat line. But the issue I still have with buying into this fully is I don't trust the Bengals. I've said this before, but I'll say it again.

I don't trust the Bengals' run game at all,'re on concepts. And there was still a good mix of Zach Moss in this game. It wasn't like they totally phased him out of the offense. So for me, Jace Brown will be the guy you play in matchups where you think the Bengals are going to score points, high implied totals for the Bengals. The Browns was never a matchup. The Browns have been stopping Joe Burrows since the, since Jim Schwartz became that defensive coordinator almost every time they faced him. He's still going to make plays in the passing game. That's where they still have design looks for him and in the red zone. I feel like he's more of an RB2 for me moving forward.

They don't trust him to pass block. He has four pass blocking snaps all year, one in this past game. That's why I'm at moss is still on the field so much as that hasn't changed yeah but here's the thing joe mixon was never their third down guy it was always p ryan and he still had a lot of catches you know he's like a 50-ish catch guy when healthy and he was a top 12 running back per game almost every year of his career. Part of the scheme has always been, this is what I do like about Bengals running back,

part of that Zach Taylor scheme has always been to use the running backs in the passing game, not on just checkdowns, on design looks. So I do think that's important. He basically has to dominate the carries. That's the thing. Because the Bengals, I think each of the last two years, they were among the lowest in the NFL in running back carries.

But it didn't matter because Mixon got pretty much every one. If there's a split, it's not going to be good enough. But in yesterday's game, six carries for Zach Moss and 15 carries for Chase Brown. That's going to do it. And Chase Brown had two catches and Zach Moss had three. So Chase Brown will come off the field on third down. But if he can be Mixon, if he can get – this is what I thought about Zach Moss had three. So Chase Brown will come off the field on third down. But if he can be Mixon, this is what I thought about Zach Moss.

I was like, if he can just take Joe Mixon's role, then he's going to be awesome. But Moss just hasn't run well enough. He's had the opportunity. I think they gave him the first shot to be the lead running back. He blew it. Chase Brown has been better.

I am excited here. I don't know about top 12. I had Javante at RB27 and Moss at 21 last week, rest of the season. And I actually wrote about, not Moss, Brown specifically. And I was like, I think you could push him as high as RB12 or 13. Do we have time to get into the names ahead of him? Yeah, absolutely.

So like Christian McCaffrey, if you want to just push him ahead of him and Jordan Mason, I think that can make sense. Chuba Hubbard, you could push him ahead of him and Jordan Mason, I think that can make sense. Chuba Hubbard, you could push him ahead of him. I think that makes sense. Brian Robinson, that's tough.

James Conner, DeAndre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Kamara maybe. Those are the guys ahead of him to get him to that top 12 range. I would say that I could see it. It's certainly,

you could easily see a scenario where he's better. We don't have an answer for who the goal linebacker is, but I'm I want to say he was on the field on fourth and one, Chase Brown. I would say no. I don't think I'd put him ahead of any of those guys except for Jordan Mason. But I could see it with pretty much all of them. I don't think I could see him being better than McCaffrey unless there's an injury. I think you could move him ahead of Connor. He's playing basically the same role and Arizona's offense kind of sucks.

Yeah. Fair. All right. Let's go to good ecosystem is late round quarterback stronger than ever. Should every quarterback just be streamed? Look at the top 12 quarterbacks by week since the beginning of the season, how they were ranked, who their matchup was,

is matchup more important than name? Um, I mean, I've always been a big proponent of matchups when it comes to quarterback position, uh, streaming, and I'm not usually somebody who invests heavily at the top of the position that had changed. And Chris towers, who used to write for us on fantasy on the football side, did some great research to the last two to three off seasons where the top of the quarterback had become worth investing in, but that has seemed to kind of collapse on in itself. I mean, Allen and Hertz have been pretty good, but not elite. My homes is a total bust. I'm really disappointed. I drafted him in so many spots and you know, Lamar is still great, but you can get that production from Jared Goff, who was,

you know, in the QB 13 range before the season. So I don't know. I don't know how you guys feel. I don't think I have a great answer on that. I'll defer to you guys. I feel the same. You want to lead quarterbacks and if not, then you can stream. So like JJ Zachary, Senator Denny Carter on living this stream. I love those guys. They have proven like year after year that they've been able to basically produce like QB7 or 8 type production just literally just streaming over the course of full seasons so yeah I don't think anything has really changed

in this regard I think that's where we've been with the position for a long time and yeah of course matchups are important read the FFT newsletter every Wednesday and Thursday because like you find matchups where it really does make a difference like whether that's pressure, whether that's expected game script,

and how often teams pass when they're leading or trailing, all that kind of stuff. Knowing that stuff is definitely important. Well, I think I want Lamar Jackson. He's the guy that I feel like is probably the one player, if I'm playing against him, I just feel like, oh, I am screwed. I don't have any Lamar Jackson, and I don't have any Derrick Henry either. And those are the two guys if I'm playing against him I just feel like oh I am screwed I don't have any Lamar Jackson and I don't have any Derrick Henry either and those are the two guys I guess if I'm like oh

I am just I'm screwed I'm probably gonna lose this week so I want Lamar Jackson um other than that I don't know that there's gonna be Jane Daniels maybe maybe Josh Allen now that Cooper's there maybe Allen but I don't know that there's to be a guy that's just winning you weeks. But this is a change because two seasons ago, the elite quarterbacks were so much better than everyone else. And last year, it was not even close to being the case. But last year just wasn't really a good year for quarterbacks.

This year, we thought this was going to be a good year for quarterbacks. And I think the depth has pretty much been there. Imagine if Caleb Williams keeps it going. Stroud willoud will be better. Uh, Baker Mayfield has been an incredible story. Gino Smith is absolutely worth streaming. I honestly think Aaron Rogers is going to be a decent streamer some weeks. Um, yeah, I think it's a pretty deep position. Maybe the only quarterback I would pay up for in trade right now is Lamar Jackson. That's pretty much how I feel. People are asking for the, uh, Jacob Gibbs impression, Dan, in the comments.

I think I'm, I think I sound particularly sleepy today, which is fair. Kind of how I feel. No, no Jacob Gibbs impression today. I have to, you know, plan that one out a little bit and, and, and kind of practice because I didn't love my last one. I could have done better on it. The next two weeks are going to be absolutely brutal for me. I mean, we got no teams on a bye this

week, which is tough. I think only two teams on a bye next week and the Yankees are in the World Series and I just got to consume my life. Some late nights for Adam coming in. What's Miami still undefeated? Miami's still undefeated. We got Florida State coming up this week. I don't know if anybody's seen what these Florida

State fans are doing, what they're eating when FSU loses. Are you seeing this? No. Schaefer, have you seen this? Oh, the tweets you mean? No, they're eating dog crap. Yeah, that was what the guy – did he actually do it?

Yeah, this guy's like, if we lose to Duke, I'm going to eat dog crap. And he did it? It was like the second week of the season or something, some fan was like, I'm going to eat dog crap if we lose and they lost. I don't think he did it. But then this FSU fan last week said, if we lose the Duke, I will do it.

And he did it. And I started watching it and I had to turn it off. It was absolutely disgusting. I see your face, Jacob. It was as, it was as shocking and revolting as your face indicates right now. Like it was,

did you watch it, Schaefer? No, you didn't watch it? No, I wasn't watching that. It was really... I was watching that video, really. Adam's grinding the tape through the video. He's like, actually, at the 04 mark,

you see the guy cut open into it and really start to devour it. You see him mushing around, chewing around in there. He's chewing around at the 08 mark. All right, forget it. I won't get into the details. Let me ask you a quick question. I'm going to change the subject and get us back to football

for a quick second. You're going to have to give me a 1 to 10 scale. 10 being amazing. 1 being horrible. Giants end up with the fourth pick overall in the draft. They select Cam Ward. 1 to 10, me.

Six. Okay, so you're somewhat confident he can be a really good NFL quarterback. He's got a hell of an arm. Okay. Did you see the throw he made in the back of the end zone, rolling to his left? He made a ticker on the back of the end zone. I haven't watched any of his tape yet.

Second time he's done that this year. But he's a little bit too much of a gunslinger, and quite frankly, a little too cocky, a lot too cocky for me. I like a nice, humble quarterback. On that note, Drake May, nice, humble quarterback. People are talking about him in the comments. We've been highlighting him. He's one of my biggest hits this year, I guess, on later on QBs.

I thought he looked a lot better this week. His average time to throw was down. He got the ball a lot quicker and like trust the offense. He had some tough plays by his receivers that like, it could have been an even bigger day. Um, I'm psyched about this guy, man.

Yeah. I mean, this is one of the guys I immediately watched one of my favorite players in the class. I'm excited to talk with Nate Tice about him. Um, few things to note. He had two big drops from Jalen Polk.

Also the anticipation. This is what really matters to me. When you watch a quarterback throw the anticipation, this, the 90 yard drive, he led with a seam ball to Hunter Henry. Unbelievable. And most quarterbacks don't even attempt the seam can let alone make a

pass there. The deep ball connection that was outside shoulder outside the hashes dropped right in the bread basket. And that third and long touchdown third and goal third and long from like the 15, just great anticipation on the throw. He has natural anticipation. Great arm talent uses all levels of the field challenges, all areas of the 15, just great anticipation on the throw. He has natural anticipation, great arm talent uses all levels of the field

challenges, all areas of the field, which is going to force defenses to play off the ball and play him differently. And on top of all that, he was dealing with the Patriots eighth offensive line combination of the year. No real talent at the wide receiver position. Yeah. In my opinion, a bottom 10 play caller as well. No offensive impel.

Um, so I just think thatke may did way more than anyone could have expected absolutely you just see it you're like oh boy like it kind of reminds me of when you saw early with love where it's like this could be different exactly that's what it looked like at unc2 and he dealt with horrible offensive line play there his entire career as well all right uh i don't know if that kicked off our conversation about second half sleepers but that's our last topic there's one of them from morgan uh second half sleepers, but that's our last topic. There's one of them. From Morgan. Second half sleepers. Oh, and by the way, Morgan is in the chat. So thank you for your question, Morgan.

Who are some second half sleepers, guys? I'll go with one to start. I'll go with, let's go with Keon Coleman. So I know there's been a lot of discussion around the Coleman situation. A lot of people made the, some people made the case that I'm canceling this one. I disagree very strongly,

but, but I am also the same guy. We said, someone had a question. Is Kareem hunt going to be a league winner? And I said, we're talking about sleepers here. We got a hell.

No, I was way wrong about that. All right, go ahead and make your case for Keon Coleman. No, I'm just going to say, I saw Jacob tweet a little bit about a 22% target share, 34% air yardage share for him.

These are all career best for him. I just think he's a talented enough player. I liked his valuation in the draft, and I think he has a chance to be a sleeper. Now I'm not saying it's because Cooper was added yesterday, but I think in general, Cooper's addition to his offense is going to help players like Keon Coleman and anyone who's on the field because Josh Allen threw for 325

against a defense that had limited passing games for the most part going into that game. Things are going to get better. They didn't have their top cornerback, but fair, fair, fair point. What about the stat I gave that he didn't have a single target when Amari Cooper was on the field?

That's bad. That's not a great stat. Look, we're digging deep for sleepers. Like my other guys, I have Cooper only ran 12 for outs to be fair. Look, sleepers, we can't say like George Pickens going to have a breakout or like, you know, like you have to dig deep. And like my other guys are even deeper calls. So we'll see what happens when we get to those. I might get immediate buzzard again. I actually don't have any names, so you can just keep on going.

I'll do two more, and then I'll let Jacob take over because I think he's going to do a better job than me. My next guy on my list was Ricky Pearsall. Deal with Ricky Pearsall. Saw the stats on the routes as well from Jacob. 32 routes and 37 dropbacks. I like that. 18 in the slot.

I like that a lot. For me, when it comes to Ricky Pearsall. I'm just sticking with my evaluation of what I saw on tape at Florida. He was lad McConkie, but I felt like he was a better version. He had the ability to high point and make catches away from his frame. Really good in that contest to catch situations, explosive in and out of his breaks. And he's on an offense that I believe will get much better once Christian McHaffrey returns. So he's just somebody I'm betting on talent. I'm betting on the draft pedigree. I'm betting on the offensive system

and I'm betting on increased usage. I can't think of a better guy for me to stash. I actually have him above Coleman, even though I mentioned Coleman first. Last one. Is this counterpoint? Yes. I like where your head's at there, but I actually would say Juwan Jennings. I think he's going to play ahead of my first name. I'm really glad

you brought up. I'm fine with that too, but I think both can make impact the rest of the season. my first name. I'm really glad that you brought up. I'm fine with that too, but I think both can be, both can make impact the rest of the season. We'll see if I'm wrong or right about that. Last one. Last one. Jerry Judy. As a member,

we have to do sleepers here. We're not just like saying like, Oh, like you could just pick like Tony Pollard. Like you can't pick names. It's sleepers for a reason. And when it comes to Jerry Judy, I like the upside. If James Winston can play, you don't like this one It's sleepers for a reason. And when it comes to Jerry Judy, I like the upside.

If James Winston can play, you don't like this one. No, I just like, obviously I, I'm not going to say Tony Pollard. Who's going to say Tony Pollard? Like,

like what? Like, okay, let's, who would you have said? First of all, Adam, you came up with zero.

Oh, I know. I think Xavier worthy is, is definitely one. Someone said it in the chat, but I was going to say it as well. Come on. I mean,

if I dialize it, someone you really should say, that's one of mine. Trey Benson is definitely someone that you should in the chat but i was going to say it as well come on evidel as someone you really should that's what i'm on trey benson is definitely someone that you there you go um disappointed myself i don't like my sleepers the more i think about it but you know what i'll go back to the guard and i'll be better next week yeah go ahead jacob give us good names jonathan brooks of course blake quorum and kimani videl both of those guys they're starting running backs are people who have had health issues in the past and they have to maintain health for two and a half months straight because they already had early season bye weeks.

So if you can afford to use a roster spot on one of those guys, do it. TyJay Spears, same kind of thing. I'm worried about Tony Pollard holding up. The offense is absolutely abysmal. They have to let... Really, their only choice is to run everything through Pollard. He's playing really well. But, man, I don't know if he's going to be able to do that

for the next six to eight weeks. And if he doesn't, then Spears comes back healthy and has a really nice runway with the matchups at the end of the year. He's probably free. I would guess he's getting dropped in a lot of leagues trey benson we know james connor gets hurt um wide receiver i did this last week in the newsletter i think i might do this going forward on fridays it's like players i would buy if i was if i have a five and one team or whatever players i'd be looking to buy if my if i need immediate help um darnell mooney i think is somebody to buy um who might

help you a lot in the immediate like short term him and jordan addison i think people are they're a little bit overlooked they've got some potential shootouts coming up these next few weeks and then long-term guys it's uh i don't know maybe this is too mainstream of a name for dan but jaylen waddle um seems like you could get him really, really cheap. And it sounds like two is coming back. Yeah. I like that.

Bye. Yeah. And, and Schaefer is giving me a crap for picking players who are rostered. I, I didn't know this was supposed to be just free agent sleepers. I think it's, you know,

also like kind of like by lows, uh, we already hit on Eric all. And then Juwan Jennings for real, like, I just want to prioritize this he's fourth in the nfl behind nico collins justin jefferson and chris godwin in fantasy points per route run his per route data is absolutely insane this year 25 target

per route run rate 2.8 yards per route run that's third best and if you look at his career without iuk on the field this is a small sample size 66 routes but only 11 of these came this year so it's the bulk of the sample size was accumulated before this season without iuk on the field 24 percent target per hour night identical to what i just said they're 25 2.73 yards per run basically identical to this year's numbers so we have some precedent suggests that what he's doing this year isn't completely random. Um, I'm excited without,

without IU. I think he's the most logical guy to play the X receiver role. Uh, it was Chris Conley this past week. I don't know to me, like a receiver trio of Debo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall and him seems a bit redundant. Um,

so I'm worried that Chris Conley might play more than Ricky Pearsall people want. I don't know. But either way, I do think he's going to be heavily involved and potentially their top target down the field. This Pearsall call by me has not been well received by anybody but our producer Schaefer. I will say this. Earlier this show, Adam snapped on a commenter. Today in the private chat.

Adam was really, really nasty towards one of these comments. Adam, what is going on with you, buddy? You should be happy. The Yankees are in the World Series. Everything is going right in your world. Miami is undefeated. What is going on, man? Well, you know, it's probably just the Giants.

No, I'm in a great mood today. I snapped on Schaefer. I didn't snap on Schaefer. I was joking, calling him a mean word. I don't know if that didn't read like a joke. He gave me, I think, unfair criticism. I think I'm being unfairly criticized today. So quite clearly, you weren't joking.

Now that the reality, the truth came out, you felt like you were being unfairly criticized, so you snapped at Schaefer. It's okay. We all have our moments. Jalen Tolbert. Another sleeper for me, We all have our moments. Jalen Tolbert. Another sleeper for me, but not like a huge...

I like Tolbert. I would say Dak Prescott is a buy low. I think... Maybe. I just think it could not possibly be any worse for Dak Prescott.

And hopefully the Cowboys offense just in general. There's another offense, right? Underachieving. Which teams aren't underachieving offensively? It's crazy, but all right, that's it. I think that's a good list there.

Thank you very much. Juwan Jennings is almost certainly going to be my number one waiver wire priority tomorrow if he's available in leagues that I am in. Thank you, Dan and Jacob. I'm not going to thank Schaefer today. He's going to have to earn that. He's going to have to earn that tomorrow He's going to have to earn that tomorrow.

We'll talk to you tomorrow with the Wave of Wire on Fantasy Football.