Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Star Searching! (03/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We're looking for the next breakout stars in the NFL. Is Khalil Shakir a possibility (3:50)? What about Jaxon Smith-Njigba (14:30)? The easy answer for JSN is "yes" but we tell you what we like and what we don't like about his profile ... Highlighting three young running backs (22:15) Tyjae Spears, De'Von Achane and Rachaad White. In what order should they be drafted? Is White any good as a rusher? Can Achane handle a big workload (33:35)? ... Dan tells us about a great sandwich he ate (40:40) and of course we argue about rye bread. Then it's back to football as we do some Russell Wilson film review (45:50) and talk extensively about the Packers passing game (47:50). Can any of the receivers stand out? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.

BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Bumble knows it's hard to start conversations. Hey. No, too basic. Hi there. Still no. What about hello, handsome?

Who knew you could give yourself the ick? That's why Bumble is changing how you start conversations. You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!

Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Oh, we have been looking forward to this one for a long time. Beyond the box score is finally back. Man, the last time we talked to people, we were, you know, reviewing Sunday Night Football to start the show.

You guys want to, like, preview the Oscars or something like that? Dan, I'm sure you're into the Oscars, Dan, right? I don't know. I'm just a guy. A little bit of a The boys are back in town. The boys are back in town. Yeah, we're excited for this show. The boys are back.

We're predicting future breakout stars. We watched a lot of tape for this one. And you know what? Oscars, they can wait. Okay, we got to talk about players. We got to get into the nerdy stuff here. We're going to do it here because we got the king of the nerds, Jacob Gibbs. How are you doing today?

Oh, my gosh. That's a good thing. I say that as a good thing. I am pro nerd. I'm a nerd. That's a good thing. I say that as a good thing. I am pro nerd. I'm a nerd. Jacob's a nerd. I think you'd, would you,

would you classify yourself as a nerd, Jacob? Because I classify myself as a football. I'm currently reading a book that my sister got me for Christmas. It's titled nerd. There we go. It says it all right there. And Adam,

by the way, if you don't think of yourself as a nerd, then you have some serious issues with, with self-identification. I don't know if I'm a nerd. I mean, I issues with with self-identification i don't know if i'm a nerd i mean i don't read i don't read books like jacob so that's a that's a point you're not a nerd schaefer schaefer will be unbiased yes thomas schaefer am i am i a nerd all you guys are nerds exactly thomas the type of guy who would stuff us in lockers in high school.

That's what Thomas is. Okay? I got a trivia question for you geeks. We're going to talk about the Packers today, the Packers receiving core. And which Green Bay wide receiver was top five in explosive catch rate and top 10 in yards per target among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. Dontavian Wicks, of course. I was going to say Wicks, but maybe Christian Watson.

No, it's Dontavian Wicks. Okay. Yeah, because I know Jacob loves Jaden Reed, but I wanted to know. Jacob loves the whole Matt LaFleur offense. Yeah. All right. Well, it is Dontavian Wicks, so we'll get to him. Hey, check out Sportsline,

sportsline.com. Sign up right now. We have an amazing offer for you. You can get great content from Jacob and Dave and Jamie and Heath on sportsline.com. And it's a gambling website.

We know we talk about the fantasy angle. There's great, obviously, fantasy content, but the gambling information and advice is top notch and transparent, too. You'll see which experts

are doing well at the time and whatnot. Most of them are doing well. They're really good at what they do. So if you want to make a little money, read some interesting content, go to sportsline.com slash join and get 60% off an annual plan. Holy cow! 60% off an annual plan with the promo code WINNERS. The promo code is WINNERS.

Sportsline.com slash join. I'm getting it now, by the way, because March Madness is on the way. Oh, yeah. I've heard some of the plans. I've heard of some of the plans for Sportsline, some really, really good content coming in for March Madness. If you're like me, you have not watched a lot of college basketball this year, you didn't have time, make all your picks for Sportsline.

There you go. All right. So what we're doing today is we're star searching. I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember the show Star Search. No shot. No? No? Why do you know that show?

You're not going to tell anyone else. It was like American Idol, I guess. Oh, okay. We're going to talk about five young players and if they can become stars. And I was thinking with Khalil Shakir is one of them, and he only had 611 yards last year. And I was thinking, man, has there been a guy that did as little as Khalil Shakir in his first two seasons and became a star?

How about Nico Collins? Nico Collins had about 940 yards, something like that, in his first two seasons, 950, something like that, combined in three touchdowns, 1, that combined and three touchdowns, 1300 yards and eight touchdowns in year three. So we'll talk about Shakir, JSN, Tajay Spears, Rashad White and Devon Achan and their star potential. All right. So Khalil Shakir, Jacob, what do you want to talk about with him? Yeah, I love Khalil Shak and the the pedigree in terms of draft capital um and his production through his first two years is definitely working against them um he's he's the guy that we added to

this list because he's not so obvious um whereas a lot of these other guys are like clearly set up to break out but i think you know with gabe davis departing and the potential role that Shakir has set up for him next year based off what he filled down the stretch in his second year I'm really really excited I really loved his data coming out of Boise I thought he should have been picked earlier and then I watched all of his routes last year because he didn't really get to play very much so it wasn't that much and I just wanted to validate I'm like I swear this guy's good and yeah he he is good like i definitely left convinced that he could play after watching last year's routes and then this year he really did kind of break out um especially at the end of the year but also just on a per opportunity basis he was insane so we had a league high catch

rate 87 among 146 receivers he was the only player with an explosive reception rate of 25% or higher that was paired with an ADOT below 10 yards. So he really isn't getting involved down the field all that much, but he was making a ton of explosive plays. And that's because of the yards after the catch, obviously 7.2 yards after the catch per reception, only Shakir, Debo Samuel, and Rasheed Rice had rates above seven yards. And so I watched all of his 2023 targets and didn't have time to watch all those routes. There were an unusual number of like broken plays, defensive mix-ups, that kind of stuff I think is naturally going to contribute to this type of efficiency. But he has the speed. He runs a 4-4-3. He has the speed he runs a 443 he has the

speed to take those types of plays to the house so there's one there's an 81 yard touchdown versus the jets where sauce garner gambles misses on an exception and he's he's gone he just has to make one guy miss after that and he's gone and like he is capable of doing that and he's really really good at finding holes in zones we'll definitely definitely have Matt Harmon on of Reception Perception later this offseason. I'm excited to see what he thinks of Shakir, because when I watch him, he's just working to the open area all the time. He's always open for a zone, and the data backs that up. So yeah, I wanted to bring him up.

Is he somebody who's on your guys' radar? I've got a bunch of stuff we can get into with the data, but have you watched him much at all? Yeah, I mean, I'll start by saying he is on my radar. It's funny you mention it because I watch him for the show, obviously, Jacob. It's funny you mention one of the names of the people who qualify with similar stats and profile as Rasheed Rice because that's kind of who I felt like I was watching a version of

when I was watching Khalil Shakur. And I think one thing that's interesting that you mentioned is how easily he uncorks and gets open and understands where to sit sit in zone and that's something that's going to be important as he heads into this year because something that the bills are just going to face a lot of when you have josh allen as your quarterback or patrick mahomes or one of these elite dudes the opposing defense is playing a lot of too high they're playing a lot of three high cover three some cover six like they're not playing a lot of men and they're not going to play a lot of men the thing that concerns so i let me just start by saying that I like his tape.

I like what you brought up his ability after the catch and kind of how that could lead to a lot of yards and a lot of potential touchdowns. I almost saw like in some ways, could the bills get him involved a little bit as a runner on some end arounds and things like that next year? That could be a part of the playbook when they have a full off season. And I'll tell you the only thing that scares me about Shakur from a fantasy standpoint, Jacob, it's like entirely related to opportunity and to his role and fit among this offense. So I look at Rice, I look at Debo, and I think there's defined roles for both of them. Even Rice down the stretch was really getting a lot of throws around the line of scrimmage and a lot of targets in that offense. It made sense. I feel like the same went for Devo, but in the bills offense, is there a possibility

that Dalton Kincaid, who I really like coming out of college can take a super big step in year two to the point where he just becomes a focal point of this offense? Cause if he does, that's going to take away volume from Shakira. It's just no way around it. And in addition to that, the Joe Brady edition as offensive coordinator down the stretch, it really brought for me a different feel to what this Bill's identity and offense is. And it's now so much more centered around the run game and the running back in the past game, James Cook.

And it may be somebody they add as well, but just the run game as well. And from under center, something they weren't doing a lot of under Brian Dable or with Ken Dorsey. And that was a big boon to them, like putting Josh Allen back under center. It's something that a lot of quarterbacks that I've studied and court, like Kurt Warner talked about this. You can't have your quarterback and shotgun all the time. It's too, you make your offense too one dimensional that way.

And it's too easy to scheme again. So if they do get go, go with along the lines of what Joe Brady did the end of the season and Dalton K takes a step forward, it does, it does concern me a little bit about just volume for Shakir. I still think the efficiency is going to be great, and I like the player and the prospect, but just a little concerned with the role. So I think one of the interesting things with the Bills is when you look at Shakir's numbers in the last three games of the season, including the two playoff games, 16.5 fantasy points at Miami, 12.1 against

Pittsburgh. You only had three targets. He caught three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown. And then 17.4 fantasy points against the chiefs with nine targets, 44 yards and a touchdown in that game. All without Gabe Davis. I think Gabe Davis got hurt in week 18, maybe week 17, but early in week 18. And then 17, but early in week 18. And then he didn't play in the two postseason games. And yeah, and you can look at it with Dawson, with Dalton Kincaid. You can look at it with Khalil Shakir, better production when Gabe Davis didn't play. But Gabe Davis was almost every week at that point, a complete afterthought.

Zero, one, two targets. So is it just a coincidence or is Shakir going to have a much bigger role now that Davis is gone? Shakir is in the slot about two-thirds of the time. We're going to talk about actually a lot of slot receivers today. You know, Rasheed Rice plays in the slot, not all the time. JSN played in the slot about 60% of the time. Jaden Reed slot. Khalil Shakir slot. But one thing about Shakir and Reed is those guys, their ADOT's around 10 yards. So this is not a short area slot guy.

Rasheed Rice and JSN. Rasheed Rice and JSN had two of the four lowest ADOTs in the NFL among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. So Shakir and Reed, from from that perspective were much different, making plays downfield. The yak was ridiculous for Shakira as we've talked about. But yeah, that's my big question is, first of all, I can't see the Bills not adding someone at receiver.

And then I'm more excited about Kincaid from a fantasy standpoint than Shakira. But yeah, I'm getting more interested in Khalil Shakir. And he went with the second-to-last pick of round nine in our draft. So that was 105th overall in our most recent mock draft a few weeks ago, just ahead of Cortland Sutton and Romeo Dobbs. What do you think about that, Jacob? I think that's about right. I would probably take him ahead of both of those names,

but it definitely depends on what we see happen in Buffalo this offseason. But yeah, he played really well, man. His PFF receiving grade was right behind Chris Godwin, Deontay Johnson, ahead of Zay Flowers, ahead of Jaden Reed, who we love so much, ahead of Christian Kirk. Those are all guys that work in the slot a lot. I think that's kind of where he falls as a player already. And yeah, I just wanted to highlight him

because I don't think people realize that he was that good. He did flash a little bit at the end of the year, but it could be easy to just be like, he's a filling guy and a good offense. He just made some plays. But I think he's legitimately good. He was really good in college college and he's done really, really well with any opportunities at the NFL level.

Last thing I'm going to say, agree or disagree with this. I don't think Shakir can have a really reliable fantasy season unless Stefan Diggs is either not on the team or not really that good anymore. Stefan Diggs is still, you know, one of the better receivers. Let's say like a top 15 receiver. I don't really see it for Shakir, just because I like Kincaid a lot too. So that would hold me back.

For me, that's an agree with you. It's holding me back as well. And also the third factor, which is Joe Brady, is just running a more balanced run heavy offense than the bills have ever had under dable and ken dorsey all right yeah i think yeah i would agree just based just based off what dan has brought up with the offensive environment but i think he's such a good player that there's contingency upside if there is anything that happens to digs or kincaid or anything or if they don't draft another receiver and he's just in the third role there. What if Diggs falls off? I mean,

it's possible. I don't think it's going to happen, but it's possible. We're going to take a quick break. We're going to come back. We're going to talk about the rest of the star search guys. JSN, Tajay Spears, Rashad White, and Devon A. Chan will be right. Oh, also, Dan apparently did something embarrassing yesterday, so I'm looking forward to hearing about that and making fun of him for it. Stay

tuned. We'll be right back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca.

Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert, as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Jackson Smith and Jigba, 63 catches, 628 yards,

four touchdowns on 93 targets in 17 games. As a rookie, as mentioned earlier, fourth lowest ADOT among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. There were 80 wide receivers with 50 or more targets, and JSN had the fourth lowest ADOT. All right, Jacob, convince me that JSN can be a star if Lockett or Metcalf, if they're both there next year. If they're both there, I don't feel super optimistic, honestly.

I watched every JSN target, and I also watched all of his routes for his press coverage, and he is getting open a lot. And I do think that Shane Waldron's offense was a problem for him. So the reason I say that is that he was much better when he was outside of the slot and he was able to just do actual wide receiver things. He averaged 2.4 yards per outrun. Went outside of the slot, that's on 147 routes compared to 0.83 from the slot. And versus the slot, he was just running drags over and over.

It was so boring um but like i will say like we we brought up the pff grade for shakir and some of the guys he falls in the range of it's not good when you look at jackson smith and jigba 64 puts in the same range as like wandell robinson tyler board elijah moore um and if you even if you remove his first four games you know to accommodate for the injury early on, his grade is still 68. So that's like Michael Thomas, Jerry, Judy range. So, yeah, I'm not super, super excited about what we saw last year. Another thing to bring up is that 28% of his targets were design looks.

That's per the Fantasy Points data suite. That's the highest of any qualified receivers. So like Zay Flowers, 27%. Rasheed Rice, 26%. no one else is above 25 percent and correct me if i'm wrong real quick jacob and you can jump back in but like i this is how i felt watching him i i agree with that there were so many of these design looks but they were the most unimaginative no yeah for sure like they're just like really poorly designed looks for sure yeah but they were going out of the way to get in the ball and it still really didn't um amount to much he was very very low when it comes to avoided tackles um and i when i watched

him he didn't look as elusive as i thought he would or as explosive when the ball in his hands um honestly like people are gonna hate this but like athletically he sort of reminds me of like sky more um he's just he doesn't like, he's very quick and he beats people, especially versus the press. He gets open like immediately all the time, but then people catch up with him. And like when he gets the ball in his hands, he rarely seems like a threat to like break a long play.

Yeah. I mean, I have thoughts on this. You go ahead, Adam. No, no. I mean, I was going to say, correct me if I'm wrong, but he was like the 20th pick in the draft instead of a top 10 pick because he wasn't an athletic specimen or anything like that, Jackson Smith and Jibba.

What are your thoughts, Dan? I mean, my thoughts are just going by my memory of evaluating with his prospect. You're right on this. He's not an after-the-catch guy. He's not a forced missed tackle guy. He's not a speed guy. He won at the collegiate level with, like you you said being able to use route savvy to get open now

he had the one of the best three cone drills ever his ability to change directions is unbelievable and it was on his ohio state tape but this offense didn't really feature him i mean that's like if you're looking like the type let's think of the type of receivers that work like that like a julian edelman for example he had a similar type three cone he had a quarterback like tom brady who's the one of the best anticipatory throwers and can get the ball out of his hands in that short intermediate area like that's not something geno smith is doing a great job of geno smith during his breakout season was using the vertical plane and he was really good in that regard that's not something that really fits in my opinion so i don't love the quarterback fit there i think you brought up

an interesting point with the schematic fit so i think that that bringing in Ryan Grubb, who's been the offensive coordinator for the last two years with the Washington Huskies is a really good move potentially for Jackson Smith and Jigba because I just think it's going to be a different feel for how he's utilizing his slots and how for how he's utilizing space in the past game. But I'm not so sure that's going to be the be all end all on the fix here. And I wonder this. I remember last year we talked a lot about how Jackson Smith and Jigba had that season with, um, with CJ with not, and I'm sorry, with, um, Chris Olave and who was the other wide receiver? Garrett Wilson. Yeah. Garrett Wilson.

And he's like, oh my God, you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba completely outproduced these guys. How good is he going to be? But maybe the whole time we should have been thinking of like, oh, it's CJ Stroud. It's just quarterback elite quarterback play and that's a big factor in why his stats are so elite he doesn't have that anymore with geno smith in my opinion and it's nowhere close between geno smith and cj stroud so maybe the scheme will help him but i'm with you jacob i think this may not be the best fit for him i do think geno was a problem specifically for Jackson Spence

Njigba. He was inexplicably late on so many of his targets. And I don't really understand what if that was lack of trust or that Njigba isn't often the first read, but there were times where it seemed like he was staring him down and was just delivering it late. Njigba was running an out route. He's open, get it to him. And if you don't get it to him on the break, then get it to the sideline. But it wasn't either one. It was just late. And it's like, what is this? Why does this keep happening to you? And it's a big problem because if you're late, then you don't utilize Jason's

skill set. That's the bottom line. I remember the Dallas game where Gino had his best game of the season or had to be at least one of his best games of the season. And he had said that they were making a point to get the ball out quicker, that they were changing it up. And also, they were missing both tackles early of the season. And he had said that they were making a point to get the ball out quicker, that they were changing it up. And also they were missing both tackles

early in the season. Their right tackle for a lot of the season. So I think that derailed their offense a little bit as well. I'm very optimistic about JSN if they get rid of Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf. If they don't, I still feel like this is, you could start really seeing

Lockett fade. He's at that age. He's coming off for him a pretty down season. I think if Lockett's out, I think JSN's a fifth-round pick. He might go higher than that, but I don't know that I'd take him higher, but I love

him. I think he can be terrific. He had one game without DK Metcalf last year. He played more on the outside, and he had four catches, 63 yards, and a touchdown on seven targets. So he just needs the opportunity. So I could see him actually going in the fourth round, you know, with the helium, as they say.

Helium, as they say. But if they're both back, if Metcalf and Lockett are both back, I think maybe late fifth round, I'd still take a flyer on him. But I'd like to get him in the sixth round. Let me tell you where he went in our most recent draft.

Jackson, he went last pick of round six. And I took Christian Watson one pick before him. And I know I was sweating that one. I've got a few more notes on him just as a player that do support the idea that he could be really good if he wasn't stuck in the slot role. So I already brought up that he was more efficient from the slot. He was also better against man coverage than zone coverage,

which is highly unusual. He was more efficient from the slot or outside? Outside the slot, sorry. He was better for his man than zone, which is unusual for. He was more efficient from the slot or outside? Outside the slot, sorry. He was better for his man in zone, which is unusual for a slot receiver. Typically slots get peppered for zone, like we talked about with Shakir. He was also above average in terms of yards per run

on deep routes, but was well below average on short routes, which I think mostly the short route note speaks to how vanilla those routes were, like we've already hit on but i think it's encouraging that he was above average on deep routes and then he was also more efficient when facing press coverage than on all other routes and so all those things i think are exciting for him to like still potentially be the guy that we got so excited about based off

of his collegiate data or at least something resembling that. Let's go to the running backs here. In our most recent draft, Devon Achan was the 22nd overall pick. Rashad White was the, oh gosh, I don't know, 31st? Whatever, right in the middle of round three. And Tajay Spears was the 48th overall pick. So these were all players selected.

One was round two, then round three, then the last pick of round four. Let's lump them together, Jacob. And with Rashad White, Tajay Spears, and Devon Achan, how would you rank them going into next season? I think I would have A-Chan the highest, but it's really hard not to put Rashad White there if we expect him to play the

role that he did last year. His role is as favorable as it gets for a fantasy running back. He ran more routes than anyone in the NFL. He's a bell cow. Spears would be the lowest, but man, I'm excited for him. How about you, Dan? This is such a tough question because I feel like Jacob nailed it with the analysis.

I, I, I think I, the way I draft, I'm probably going HN one Spears two, and then Rashad white three, but it's so hard to put Rashad white three, given the role he had last year. And some of what I saw on tape after Jacob kind of did a good job of like showing me some plays to look at that has me excited about white. So I'm really just excited about all three, but yes, I know we may have a different interpretation. I mean,

the guy just, he can't run away from anyone. He's just slow. I think Rashad white, I think his receptions are more impressive than his runs, but his law, I'm talking strictly his reception. Okay.

I do not like him as a runner. I've never liked him as a runner. I don't think he processes the, the, I don't think he processes well as a runner. He ran a pretty good 40, but I looked at the notes I had from him coming out of college was my draft prep. And I think I wrote something like good 40, but doesn't look fast on tape. That was my interpretation. That's still how I feel about him. And as long as, I mean, the guy had 272 carries. His longest run was 38 yards. And that might be a career long, right? Because he was 3.6 yards per carry one

year. It was like 3.7 another year. I try not to make too much of yards per carry, but this is a little alarming. I will bring up, I always bring up with Rashad White. He had a very, very tough schedule. He faced seven very, very tough schedule. He faced seven opponents that were top eight in yards per carry allowed to running backs. But he didn't even really do that well in the rare times that he had good matchups, just in terms of efficiency. So he's the least explosive of these three,

I think, by far. And if you're going to keep averaging 3.7 yards per carry, it's two years in a row now, that's the kind of guy that could lose his job. So I think you have to, right now, if you were drafting, you don't know what the Titans are going to do. So I do think you have to take Rashad White first. If Tajay Spears is starting running back for the Titans,

it's like a no-brainer for me to take him ahead of Rashad White. To the point where you might even consider taking him out of HN. I honestly think that's on the table because I think you have to wonder what kind of role HN could have given all the injuries last year. I've told me they were getting the same touches. I'd take HN, but I'm sure Jacob will get into it. But Spears on tape is just unbelievably impressive. Right.

All right. Go ahead. It's just unbelievable. Do we feel better about the Titans' offense? I just, I don't know. It doesn't matter how good it is. That's true. It doesn't matter.

It's probably the better question for Spears. I feel better about, you know what? This might be wrong. I might be completely wrong about this, but we all watched our Tajay Spears tape, and based on what I saw, I think they would have had a better offense if he had been the lead rusher rather than Derrick Henry.

Sorry, that's offensive to Derrick Henry. I love the guy, but I think Spears was, I think Spears was so good last year. And I, you know, it's kind of like Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Yeah. I just feel like maybe Spears can't carry the workload and Henry obviously can. But I feel like the Cowboys did themselves a disservice by, by not featuring Pollard more. And last year, maybe the Titans did the same by not featuring, uh, Spears more. I do want to have one quick pushback. Then we're going to get into a Jacob on the Pollard versus Spears thing because Pollard at the collegiate level never carried a big workload, but Spears actually did at Tulane. He was a workhorse back for them. So I actually think, and I like based on the, has low center. I just think he can actually handle the war. It's part of why I like Spears so much. I'm not,

that's not the point. I know you're not saying that. I was just trying to make a point that the team was too loyal to the veteran franchise, you know, fan favorite. I think they did themselves a disservice. That's fair.

Yeah. All right. What do you, Jacob, what do you think about Spears? I think he's awesome. The data backs it up. I'm excited to hear what Dan says specifically about his film, but just real quick, he was fifth among 49 running backs and avoided tackle

rate. He was 11th in yards per rush, yards after contact per rush. Per the Fantasy Points data suite, 39% of his attempts went for five or more yards. That ranked fifth behind only A-chan, Kyron Williams, Jalen Warren, and Christian McCaffrey. And then he was eighth in yards per run as well.

So good as a receiver, too. And all that's backed by his collegiate data, too. And then when you watch him on film, he's just breaking off big plays all the time. Yeah, take that away, Dan. I mean, that's the first thing I have in my notes. The juice is real. The burst is real.

I mean, there's plays, the Atlanta game, quarter four, 940, if anyone has game pass and wants to check it out. The first play of the Colts overtime game toward the end of the season, there's just examples. I mean, I put these on Twitter a couple weeks ago, and I thought we were going to do this show so you can find them there too. But there's just examples of him coming into a hole where the linebacker has the angle

on him every time. And for some reason, he's able to manipulate that angle, create space. And a lot of it is just winning to the edge, but that's fine. If you can beat those angles, the edge, and he consistently proves that he can, he turns the corner, he transitions upfield for extra yardage on so many plays. But then in addition to all that, having that burst, having that ability to kind of manipulate the linebackers and the safeties and win in space to the outside. He also is really good when it comes to getting low through contact and then having that low

center of gravity and that contact balance, that thing that has made Alvin Kamara such a special player for so many years. And that allows him to create after the contact because he gets so low and has that low center of gravity. So, and that's something, this is all stuff you saw on his Tulane tape. It's one of the most impressive running back films you're going to watch of any back in the last few years. Now he went, he was drafted later in the draft because he had that potential degenerative knee issue too. And I think maybe down the line, that could be something we would worry about. We're talking about redraft right now. We're talking about 2024 and for 2024, that doesn't concern me with Tajay Spears.

And so I said this in my notes, if they do add Joe Alt and they have a draft pick where they could get one of these top tackles in the class, if they add one of these top tackles in the class and their line is so bad, they probably have to, and they have a young quarterback. I'm going to be drafting a lot of Tajay Spears. It doesn't even matter to me who they add, because like you said, Adam, I think it could be a situation where it's like Pollard-Zeke, but they actually lean on the Pollard type this way, and they lean on Tajay Spears. This is one of my favorite players for 2024. Look, he was a third-round pick. It's not like he was a super late pick. He was still a day-two pick, and you get a lot of good running backs in that range.

Alvin Kamara was a third round pick. David Montgomery was a third round pick. Let's see, who else? Rashad White was a third round pick. But yeah, oh, David Johnson was a third round pick. Actually more misses than hits, I would say. It's kind of a little underwhelming of a list, but there are some studs in that group as well.

Jacob, let me ask you from an advanced stats perspective. Jalen Warren always pops up when you look at running back metrics. Oh, yeah. One of the best. Is he a cautionary tale for Tajay Spears, or is he still just someone that, if not for Najee Harris,

maybe Jalen Warren would be like a third round pick or something like that. Um, I think maybe I'm, I'm leaning closer to the ladder. I really do think Jalen Warren is good. Um, but definitely anytime when you're dealing with such small sample sizes, it's worth taking it with a grain of salt, but when it's backed by the film and it's backed by collegiate data and film as well, I feel pretty confident that Spears is good. Yeah, me too. All right. Let's, so if the hype, if the, he's the starting running back, you, you might want to buy into the hype on Tajay Spears. I think that's kind of what we're saying. And is there anything you wanted

to say about a Chan or white? Um, there's a lot to say about a Chan white. Uh, you brought up David Johnson back to back with him. And that's, I, I feel like when I watch white, he's like 90% of David Johnson. Does that, I love that comp. I love that. Not really. I feel like when i watch white he's like 90 of david johnson does that i love that comp i love that not really i feel like oh i love that comp i don't think johnson had more breakaway ability but i like that comp in their ability to manipulate space as receivers white had a ton of breakaway plays i mean that's that's i want to definitely receivers basically all as all in the receiving game right i mean for the yeah part. Yeah, but David Johnson wasn't a good runner, really. He wasn't, really, yeah.

Johnson? He was like an average rusher. I think he was early in his career, and I think the injuries kind of took their toll on him. Well, by the end, he was terrible after the injuries. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I would say it was pretty impressive, Rashad White's receptions.

I only watched his eight receptions that went for 20 or more yards, but I don't know that they were that, that impressive. Really. I was really impressed by the buck screen game. They executed it really, really well. They blocked downfield.

Well, and then Evan White has like one move. He puts his foot in the ground. Like a linebackers coming in at one way, he puts his foot in the ground. He goes, it's a great move, but he's got one move. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

You're not wrong. Like I have in my notes, Rashad White, because I was actually really impressed with those receptions. I have really good at manipulating space after the catch. Sets up defenders so well with how he tempos his catch, tempos his moves post-catch and manipulates the angles. There were just so many examples of the linebacker or the safety having the angle to stop Rashad White for like a three-yard gain.

And somehow he sets him up. Like you said, it is one move, but I just think the tempo that he, it's, it's, it's hard for some of these backs to understand in the passing game tempo. And the same thing goes for the receivers. It's why I like Jaden Reed so much, the way he tempos his routes. It's what made Cooper Cup good, Doug Baldwin, all of these players. But when you do it and you, and you have the right tempo and you set up the defenders. Well, it really looks like they're foolish on a lot of these plays at him.

And I know you saw that a lot. Some of these linebackers and safeties have clear what angle this should be a two-year game for white. And now somehow it's 20 yards or 25. So I think that's an actual skillset. And I think that's an actual trait. And I don't think that's going away. And like you said, part of why I like him is because of what you said the system is set up to

get him the football in the passing game and I think a lot of that was to make Baker Mayfield a better player and make it easier for him and I don't see how that's going to really change if he's back as quarterback so I do still really like the pass game role it's the running that that always kind of scares me with white and then let's wrap it up with some A-chan thoughts, Jacob. Yeah, so really with A-chan, we're trying to, this offseason, I think our task as a fantasy community is to decide on whether we believe A-chan is a historic outlier type of producer or not. Is he Jamal Charles? Is he like a better version of C.J. Spiller or something like that. Um, cause he really has to be an outlier. I think based on the weight and the workload that we saw, at least his usage in year one. So the notes I have, his first two collegiate seasons, um, he was splitting the backfield

with Isaiah Spiller at Texas A&M and he, his data there was insane. He really looked like he might be that kind of an outlier, but then he got the Belcott role in year three, and there was a big efficiency fall-off for A-chan. And so that, I think, is noteworthy that maybe in this system, in a part-time role, as long as he doesn't have to be the every-down player, he can be this type of efficiency, and we can believe in it. Also, though, there definitely was a lot of big big play inflation that comes into effect here with his numbers, obviously. And so like you're going to see, you know, his yards after contact was historic.

His yards per rush was the best of all time, all this stuff. of 25 plus yards from the data set not just his but everybody's um hn ranked 16th among 57 qualified running backs in yards after contact per rush um so i'm curious if we think he's actually like an exceptional yardage creator in terms of creating after contact or like is he actually great at avoiding tackles and busting these big plays or is it mostly just he's super fast he's bidding hitting big holes in a really well-designed system did you get a chance to watch him dan well good question real quick isn't that good though if you take away this 25 yard carries and everybody's he's what 16th out of 45 and yak per carry that very good for the type of running back he is yes yeah okay yeah no Yeah, no, no, it's not like this is a fluke. It's just like without the, if you don't take it away,

he's at 5.1 yards after contact per rush, and the next closest is 3.9. He looks like the best damn running back of all time. But if you do take it away, he's at 2.9, which is 75th percentile, which is good for sure. Still higher than Saquon Barkley somehow last year. Let's hear Dan's film review thoughts after a quick commercial break on Beyond the Box score of Fantasy Football today.

We'll be right back. I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh, what? Just like that? Just like that. How about dinner with my third cousin? Skip it. Prince Fluffy's favorite treats?

Skippable. Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices? Uh, nope. You're on your own there. Could have skipped it. Should have skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip.

Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law.

Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Okay, Dan Schneier, what'd you see when you took a look at Devon Achan? I'm going to try to keep this part brief, but you know, when you do this for a living, you have misses, you have hits, but Devon Achan, that was a hit. And we're going to go back. You know, you just can't get his name right. You just like, I even said it right before I went to you. I said, Devon HN, and here you are bragging about it. And you just can't get his name right. Let's take a walk back in time though, to a text message I sent Adam Azar last, last year around this time, actually a little bit earlier. He said, I want you to come up with the best possible fits for rookie players and their NFL teams.

And I said, I would love to see Devon Achan in Mike McDaniel's system. And Adam's like, what? You can't pick a player like that. Pick somebody like. This is I'm trying to do Adam's voice. Sometimes it gets a little high. Pick somebody like. He's giving me like all the top running backs in the class protected running

backs he's like you can't do this devin hn he'll be nothing more than a kick returner at the nfl level so adam was wrong i was right we now love h and h and h and yes we love h and and the fit with with mike mcdaniel and part of what made him so special. And I think you're right, Jacob, but I think what Adam said after that was even more right, which is it's not a bad thing. Part of it is the system fit. He is a one cut runner. He is someone who, when you can get him in space is a dynamic, dynamic player and his ability to understand angles and to really utilize them. And I thought at A&M, I agree with you, the efficiency went down, but I thought when he was the workhorse, Jacob, I actually liked what he was able to do because he's really strong through contact for a player of his size. And he was not afraid to take it up

the middle and run up the middle. It was very different than say Rashad White, who had Arizona state would just bounce everything outside. HN understood how to process inside runs. And that's something that really stood out to me at A&M. It's why I loved him so much. But I'll say this, even when I watched the Buffalo playoff game, and I think one thing you mentioned in your notes, Jacob, that I kind of saw too, was he maybe wasn't the same player after the injury when he came back. And that's just going to happen to players. But even in that Buffalo playoff game, I just love some of the creative things I saw with

Josh McDaniel in that game to get him the ball in space there were some wild motions pre-snap and then pitch to HN where he's just like pulling guards and doing all sorts of interesting things with an H back and then the ball comes to HN in space and before you know it he's taking this for a big run because the Dolphins have manipulated space and they've got him out into an area where he just has really a lane and he has to beat one or two defenders and And he's going to do that a lot. So yes, if a Chan was made, let's say there was a new coaching staff or something, I'd have some concerns, but you're too.

And Mike McDaniel, I just think it could get even better for a player like him. So I'm, I'm very high on him. Um, the injury is something that concerns me given his style of play though. Um, and just overall versus some of these other players I would say the role I don't ever foresee him being maybe a workhorse in this offense but he has proven in the past that he's good in the red zone they obviously leaned on Mostert toward the end of the year

but the beginning they were giving him a lot of touches there so I think that's still in play as well for more potential touchdowns I still think we have to talk about Raheem Mostert who had a really good year and still seemed to be the lead back. And I don't know that A-chan can be a second-round pick if they still have Raheem Mostert.

I don't know that they will, and I know Mostert's really old, but I can't sit here and say that he's the most injury-prone running back on the team. That might be A-chan, you know? And it's all about the workload. I mean, it's all about the – there's so much bust potential for HN, but there's also so much boom potential. He will be one of the, uh, he'll be one of the trickiest players on draft day. I think you can't let him fall past the second round right now. I'd say we'll see. Um, all right. So before the show started,

Dan said, did you see what I did yesterday? And then he said something like, I thought you were going to make fun of me for it, but I didn't see. So I'm looking forward to this, Dan. So what what hilarious, embarrassing thing did you do yesterday? So embarrassing. So new place opened up by me. It's called Pastrami House. And obviously, as a Jewish boy, I love eating pastrami and I love matzo ball soup.

And I love all that pickles out there. You know, the half sour, half sweet pickles it's just as good as it gets and we don't have a place like that near me where i live so opened up one of the first days i go in there schmooze with the owner guy loves me tweet out i'm like all right let me do you a favor all right guy loves me i'm like let me do you face give me discounts give me free stuff he's loves this guy's great he's, I'm like, all right, let me do you a favor. I'm kind of a big shot in the Twitter world. All right. Take a look at this.

Like, take a look at this. Here's my profile. I have all these followers. No, you didn't show him the profile. No, I showed him the profile, Jacob. I had to confirm to him that I was actually doing him something that could be potentially a value. I hope for his business because I want the business to work.

And so I'm like, I'm going to take a picture of the food. I'm going to tweet it out and talk about how good it is and tag you in it and then when i finally did it adam like somebody who was 77 or 79 years old has never ever functioned an iphone in his life before i took a picture that was like cut off and it was like not the full the full picture it's like this this size like 60 of the photo is white space and then you see and you see like the used photo and the retake photo in the bottom left and the bottom right just unbelievably embarrassing didn't do a good job showcasing his food and now if that business fails i'll we'll take full blame on it is it still up it's still up you can find it on my. Is it still up? It's still up. You can find it on my Twitter from last night.

Oh, boy, that's really, yeah, that's not a good picture. It's like I've never operated an iPhone before. It's unbelievable. I don't know what came over me. I was too excited. I was schmoozing. I was in my element. We got to get this picture up here.

I mean, it's not that bad. Let me see it. Let me take a look and see if this looks good. Where's your Russian dressing? Where's your Russian dressing? So, yeah, so he bad. Let me see it. Let me take a look and see if this looks good. Where's your Russian dressing? Where's your Russian dressing? So, yeah, it's so he asked me how I wanted it. And usually I do hot pastrami on rye with just the spicy brown mustard. But he's like, get try it dressed and dressed is coleslaw and Russian.

But I like coleslaw Russian. So I tried to dress and it was really good. The matzo soup was amazing as well. The pickles were great. So just an excellent place. So much white space. So much white space. It's so bad. I got to tell you, I think rye bread is one of the worst breads in the world.

No, don't say something stupid like that. Come on, Adam. Any other bread. Are you even Jewish? Oh, come on. I just polished a loaf of challah. All right. That's real bread.

That's good bread. Rye bread. Sourdough bread. Rye bread. Those are the two worst breads, I think. Let me ask you a question, by the way, because you got tagged in this and you didn't answer this. If you saw the picture and you bring it back up, did you see in that sandwich, there's a stick. Yeah.

Now, that stick is not there to, as Jamie says, check the temperature of the rye. No, because this isn't a burger. This isn't a burger. This is a piled high pastrami sandwich. Are you going to take the stick out of this? I mean, for the record, in this picture, it does not look like a piled high. I can barely see the pastrami. No, it's a head picture, but if you zoom in, you'll see.

Well, it's pretty stacked if you zoom in. And you're going to take the stick out of a sandwich like this? No. Yes. Yes. I don't eat – Why you're gonna take the stick out of a sandwich like this uh yes yes i don't eat i always take the stick out no you use it to keep the sandwich together i don't need to i'm an adult i'm almost 40 being an adult it's about so it doesn't fall out so it doesn't get messy all over the place why would you not keep want to keep the sandwich together i don't have that problem with my sandwiches i don't know what to tell you i can eat them everyone else seems to and i've had a lot of people people people support me in the comments all the time on twitter so check the replies

jacob uh thoughts on sourdough versus rye the comment section is saying you've gone too far for the sourdough slander uh sourdough is okay. Sourdough toast with real butter, yeah. Rye is good, man. Rye is good. Rye tastes like a pickle, which is also – Rye is good. Pickle is the worst. You don't use rye on everything, but pastrami, the rye has its place.

Yeah, it's that sourness. There's like a sourness to rye that I don't like. Yeah, it's a bitterness, a little sourness. I like that. Yeah, pickle is – people might know this. Wait, don't tell me you don't like pickles.'s a bitterness, a little sourness. I like that. Yeah, pickle is, you know, people know, probably might know this. Wait, don't tell me you don't like pickles. They're food. They're sandwich ruiners. They seep into the sandwich.

All you taste is the pickle. They completely, like, you don't even know you're eating pastrami. You're eating a pickle with a hint of pastrami. Pickles are just awful. Would you say pickles are awful? They're awful. They're terrible. Are you even Jewish? awful? They're awful. They're terrible. Are you even Jewish?

Really? I don't. Don't stereotype me. I will stereotype you. Okay. Non-Jews like pickles too. I'm telling all of you religions out there. Oh, everybody likes pickles.

They're amazing. But like what Jew doesn't like pickles? Enough with the Jew. Enough. Get religion off the show. Okay? Too much. Too much religion. Too much. Get religion off the show. Okay? Too much. Too much religion.

Too much. You've gone too far. Too much culture. Yes. Enough bread talk. I want to talk some cheese. I want to talk Green Bay Packers. Oh, right.

I forgot about that. Don't let him miss on the pack. He's very excited about the Packers. Okay. I did watch some Russell Wilson tape. I just want to say that I saw two plays. One should have been a 35-yard Jerry Judy touchdown, and one should have been even longer a Jerry Judy touchdown.

And I guess I still love Jerry Judy. Oh, no. Do you? I don't know. Oh, no. I saw a lot of plays in the two games where I felt like there was something there for the Denver receivers, be it Judy, Sutton, Mims, whatever.

Like Mims, Mims had a play where he ran right by Derek Stingley. He put a double move on him, ran right by him, and underthrown deep ball by Russell Wilson. There was really a lot of meat left on the bone if you look at that passing game. And also, I want to say this about Wilson. This needs to change.

He was 19th in pass attempts. He was 29th in pass attempts of 8 to 15 air yards. That's just total pass attempts. Wow. So everything he threw was either a wide receiver screen to somebody or a deep ball. That's pretty much all he did. You know, I'm exaggerating a little bit, but that's terrible for a guy like Jerry Judy.

It worked out for Cortland Sutton, but I read it. I read something about how Sean Payton really training wheels that offense for Russell Wilson and took and really took away all of his kind of authority as a quarterback. Right. So I wonder what happens. But I did see him either not see or make some inaccurate throws on open receivers, a lot of not seeing. But I also saw some really, really good throws. Like, holy cow, what a deep throw he just made to Sutton in particular.

That's a really great red zone throws too, good ball placement. Yeah. And he scrambled well too. So I'm going to call him average. That's my takeaway from it. Makes some mistakes. I think quarterbacks miss open receivers, don't see them a lot. That happens in football.

I don't watch enough film to know what's normal. But anyway, let's talk about the Green Bay Packers passing game. Yeah, so just talking about potential stars, I think that's what we've got on our hands here with like everyone in Green Bay, like Jordan Love, Dontavion Wicks, Jane Reed, Romeo Dubs, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave. Like there's so many guys here who have really exciting potential. And I love Matt LaFleur, his offense. I felt even more encouraged about the direction of the offense after really digging into the film. So I watched JTO Sullivan, the quarterback school on YouTube.

Definitely check him out if you want more in-depth content and quarterback analysis. I watched his breakdowns. He does a 30 to 40 minute breakdown every week of the quarterbacks that he's interested in. And so with Jordan Love, since his first year, there's a ton of content. I watched weeks one through five um just see how he started the year because weeks three through five were actually pretty bad um and then i watched weeks 12 and 13 those are two of his best games i was against detroit on thanksgiving and then against kansas city and then i watched his two playoff games and man i i think there's so much potential for jordan love i'm curious what you guys think just he he was as expected like sloppy this year footwork a lot of the time

um not just just bouncing around a lot in the pocket when he didn't need to but just the throws of anticipation that he makes like nobody makes there are very very few guys that are even um like imagining making that kind of throw and let alone taking Um, and he's got the arm talent to go with that anticipation that like he can make just about any throw out there. And then the floor is just getting these guys open. So often with pre snap motion stuff, um, just really creative designs.

I really, really loved that. And then like, man, like, so Romeo Dobbs is somebody who I've been pretty low on just from an analytical standpoint, looking at his data.

Um, I get more excited about guys like Jayden Reed and Wicks who are producing really efficiently. Christian Watson is rookie year, really, really efficient. Dubs has never been that guy. But then I watch a lot of Green Bay film, and it's like Dubs is popping up all the time, making big plays. Third down catches, catches in the red zone.

And do you guys remember the freaking- Outside the numbers, he makes a lot of plays. Oh, yeah. The playoff run, he had 234 receiving yards in two games. Like he's a legitimately good player to pair with all these other really, really talented and diverse skill sets. Um, and so we can start wherever with this,

I guess I wanted to bring up their PFF grades. Don Taving wicks at them at the top of the show, highlighted them highest PFF grade of the receivers here. 77 was his receiving grade 74.4 for jayden reed 74 for dubs 70.3 for christian watson um but watson was really starting to find a rhythm before he got hurt the two games before his um last injury um in against kansas city he had an 88 and a 90 grade, and he really looked unstoppable, looked like the guy we saw during his rookie season.

So yeah, I know Jaden Reed is the guy that we have most recently been excited about on Beyond the Box score, and then Christian Watson is Dan's infamous first call when we started this show. So whichever direction you want to take it in, Dan, with those guys. Yeah, I mean, this is going to be kind of the issue for me.

I like all of them including wicks on film um the two i like the most would probably be watson and reed for i'll go watson real quick one thing that's maybe going to scare me and i'll probably be investing a lot in watson because i know the price is going to be so depressed after last year it's going to be valued city but injuries have been really a big problem for him in both of his first years and then also in his collegiate career at times so just something to consider um but reed man like jayden reed is such a fun prospect because when he when i first got into it last year he was a rookie last year i was like i'm not gonna like this guy i don't like the analytics on this dude and my friend was just like dude just watch the

film and see what you see because he's not gonna like blow you out of the gym with a 40 time or a vertical jump or all those like testing relative athletic score, but just watch the tape. And when I watched it, I saw exactly what I saw on his green Bay film from this year's a rookie Jacob, that innate ability to tempo his routes. You know, I compare him to, because he also is able to just get so much separation on the vertical plane because of how he temples routes. I compare him to Doug Baldwin. That's what he reminds me of a great receiver who had so much fantasy success at times with the seat, with the Seahawks. And they remind me so much of each other. And even to some degree,

I think Jaden Reed is a little bit more of an explosive player. And I, it's crazy to say, cause Baldwin was pretty explosive, but, uh, and I never given credit for that. So Reed is probably my favorite of the group,

Jacob, but I got to say like watching the tape, cause he had me watch some games for green bed. And I rewatched the giants game. He had a really good second half that past game. They had over 200 yards, the Dallas game. And I'm sorry, the Detroit game from Thanksgiving. There's just, like you said, the key thing here, and this is really important for the

success of this entire past game is what you said. It's a combination of Jordan love, really understanding what Matt LaFleur is looking for and understanding the system really well, which allows him to throw the anticipation into open. So the biggest difference in the NFL for me is quarterbacks who can throw the anticipation and quarterbacks who need to wait for the receiver to get open, to throw the football. When you can throw the football into space before those receivers are getting out of their breaks,

it's just going to give you such an edge because there's not much of space in general to work with in an NFL passing game. The windows are so tight. The coverage is right there. And so that's what you saw. And you brought that up, Jacob. And if that's the case, like you're seeing 15 yard out to Romeo Dobbs, right on time, right on the money.

Dobbs makes the catch in breakers to Dobbs, right on time. Jaden Reed in the slot, right on time. Duntavian Wicks. It really was all of those guys. So it is going to be a little tough for me to figure out the target share and figure out like where we're going to go with this. So I think what I'll probably end up doing is just investing in all of them in different,

in different, in different spots. My favorite strategy right now is draft Christian Watson. And then depending on when Jaden Reed goes to draft him too. But unfortunately he just goes, he goes too early. Like he went before christian watson right i figured reed would probably get a lot of smoke this offseason and being the highest

drafted of these guys i think i'll kind of yeah no you don't know how it's going to play out but is that what you're going to do you're going to you're going to take reed first so i think for best ball purposes i want a lot of exposure to green bay and you can spread it and get it and distribution of what you want. Um, and I think, I just think this offense is like a discount version of Houston and the ambiguity, like makes it even better to target green Bay because yeah,

people don't know who to target necessarily other than like Jaden Reed. Um, but honestly, Jane Reed in the games that Watson was healthy, saw his snap rate drop a little bit and they really like Dobbs and Watson, I think, as the two outside receivers. So if that's the case again, I'm going to be a little bit hesitant,

maybe potentially even underweight on him relative to the other guys. Right. Let me give you the numbers. Can I give you the numbers real quick? Yeah. Jaden Reed, weeks one through three, no Christian Watson.

27.4% target per route run rate on pace for 113 targets. Weeks four through 13 with Christian Watson, that 27.4 target per route run rate goes to 19.4%. Last five games, weeks 14 through 18, Jaden Reed actually missed one of those games. The target per route run rate goes back up to 34.9%. I mean, it was all about, coincidence or not, I don't know,

but it was all about Christian Watson. And that's why I would take Watson first, because I still think what we saw him do to the Chiefs and the game before that was the Lions was right before that, those two games on national TV. I don't think anyone else on the team can do that. He's special at times. Reid, watching his film, I guess I was surprised at how downfield he was, right? He's, like I said about Khalil Shakir,

Jaden Reid, this is a slot guy with a 10-yard ADOT who's making plays downfield, who's doing like outside-y kind of things, right? He's not pigeonholed into this typical slot. Like Lockett and Baldwin, right? Like you said, right? So he's really impressive too. But I think Watson's on another level personally. I think I totally agree with the points you made there. I think that Reed and Watson really have similar types of roles

in the way that they like to get them the ball. Green Bay does. It's weird because they're different prototypes of receivers, obviously, especially like from a frame and size standpoint. Um, but they like to get them the ball in space. Um, and they like to get them catching around opportunities. And I do think that when Watson's healthy, he's been the guy Reed might've been so good this year that he pushes more into that workload. But yeah. And then the other thing I would echo from what you just said is like, Jane Reed is a player was unbelievably impressive.

All the pace and everything that Dan mentioned that he plays with. It reminds me of Jackson Smith and jig, but when you watch him where he's deceptive and he's able to do like create separation, but then he does have, I feel like the juice that in jig, but the lack and it's like, man,

this guy could be an absolute stud. Um, I don't know if it'll be next year it'll depend on the role and if he's on the field in two receiver sets i think right which he really wasn't right because his snap share even when watson was out wasn't super high jayden reed but i also i do want to point out that just because something happened last year it doesn't mean it's going to happen again this year that That target per outrun rate with Christian Watson on the field was playing 19.4%, way below when Christian Watson was out. That doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be the same case next season. And he might just be more reliable.

And he might have more upside because Watson just seems to have these chronic hamstring injuries that he even said they can't figure it out. He changed his offseason routine, and it didn't work. So, you know, it might be. His build looks like he's just somebody who's going to get injured a lot. Yeah, it really sucks. And, Dan, I think what you said about him understanding, Jordan Love understanding Matt LaFleur's offense,

I'm not sure if you saw this, but that's exactly what Matt LaFleur said last. I'm not saying you stole it. I'm saying you're exactly right. I didn't see that. That's exactly what Matt LaFleur said during Jordan Love's not saying you stole it. I'm saying you're exactly right. I didn't see that. Yeah, that's exactly what Matt LaFleur said. Went during Jordan loves hot streak at the end of the season. He said he's just much more comfortable in the offense and you're seeing it on the field.

Makes all the difference when those quarterbacks throw with anticipation. It's everything. I can't draft Luke Musgrave. I, it's not that I love him, but there's just, but I also like craft and I like both of them coming out of the draft. They just did a phenomenal job. I mean, look at these guys. Like they didn't have to use any capital except for Christian Watson.

They traded up for him in the beginning of round two. They didn't really use any crazy capital on any of these guys. Reed, Wicks, Dobbs, Musgrave, Kraft. These are all day two or day three picks. And they all look pretty damn good on tape. It's wild how well green bay is does does a job of scouting uh skill talent this has been my opinion forever with this team yeah reed was the 50th pick in the draft oh yeah they use the day two pick yeah but that's another

thing and maybe people don't realize that he's a pretty high draft pick you know there's that's that's pedigree i'd say yeah. Yeah. Well, thank you guys. Oh, it's 11. Oh, Jacob said you need to leave by 11. Here we are. We have hit 11.

Um, thank you very much. Uh, everybody, you know, get, get a nice pastrami sandwich on any, get it out,

get it on. Let's see. What would I get it? I would get it on white bread. I wouldn't. Oh, I don't think I get it on wheat. Oh,

you know, like wonder bread, dude. I get it out of your. Something like Wonder Bread, dude. I'd get it out of your mind. I'd get it on a cinnamon raisin. I'd get it on a disgusting piece of soggy, thick white bread. American cheese. It doesn't need to be Wonder Bread, by the way.

There's plenty of different types. How about a cinnamon raisin bagel, Dan, with pastrami and Russian dressing? I actually don't hate that. I like mixing salt to the sweet. I like mixing salt to the sweet, so I'm in on that. Thank you to Jacob and Dan and Thomas and to all of you for watching and listening. This is Beyond the Box Score. We're back tomorrow talking about how to build the perfect roster on fantasy football today.

See you later.