Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Struggling Stud WRs, Emerging Must-Starts and More (11/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 25, 2024

We kick it off with a recap of Eagles-Rams (4:40)! The Eagles barely pass the ball, but still put up points. The Rams wide receivers are great but how much do we trust Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams going forward? ... News and notes (13:10) and our Workhorse Running Back (18:30) to watch as we talk about Josh Jacobs and his rest of season outlook. Then Jacob brings the advanced stats (21:50) on Bryce Young, Kyler Murray, the Packers passing game, the Bucs offense and more ... Four Big Topics: What's going on with Malik Nabers and Justin Jefferson (44:00)? Can we start Deebo Samuel even if Brock Purdy comes back (48:15)? Which players have entered the must start territory (52:30)? Which matchups are we avoiding as the Fantasy playoffs approach (1:03:00)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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with iGaming Ontario. This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Hey everybody what's going on? Hope your Sunday was awesome. We welcome you to Beyond the Box Corps here on Fantasy Football today presented by BED MGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. Adam Azer here with Dan Schneier and Jacob Gibbs. Happy Monday, guys. Are you going to be all right, Adam? Why? What's wrong? Oh, shut up.

Yesterday I saw the life leave your body for a full split second. Literally, a full second. The life left your body. When Jamie came in and scared you, I warned you about recording from that studio. I had recorded there myself when I went down to Fort Lauderdale office to work from there for a week. I had no idea what was to come for you though. For you, of course, you went through an experience

that none of us wanna go through in any of our lives and that's being scared, you know what, Liss. Yeah. On the Sunday. Yeah, yeah, it was horrifying. If you missed it, the video's out there. And like I said, I look like the kid going on Splash Mountain right before the big drop.

They take the picture, that's the terror in my face. We're going to recap Rams and Eagles. The best touch of that by far was the immediate headphone throw after. Just chuck the headphones. Unreal. For those who haven't seen it, you can find it on our YouTube. Go on Twitter. Twitter. Thomas dropped it somewhere. Famous Football Today account. So enjoy. We're going to give you, Jacob's here too. Hi, Jacob. Hello.

We're going to give you the advanced metrics that you need to know. The snap counts. What's going on in the Buccaneers backfield? What's going on with Deandre Hopkins? Does he ever share the field with Judas Smith Schuster? What's going on with Jamesison Williams? A dot. Four big topics today are, do we panic on elite wide receivers like Justin Jefferson or Malik neighbors? Should we be using the word elite for Malik neighbors? That's my ad living there. What do we do with the 49ers the rest of the way? I'll tell you what I would do guys. I don't have any odds in front of me. I would consider placing a Super

Bowl bet on the 49ers. I bet they are super, super cheap and they are a game out of first place. And if they get healthy, they are still the best team in that division. And if they get into the playoffs, you don't want to face the 49ers. I see the look, I see some disgust on your faces over there. That's a hot take. I feel like people are ready to bury the Niners. Not the worst take. Not the worst take. The more I think about it, it's intriguing take. Their schedule looks tough. Their schedule looks tough.

I think they have issues beyond just the fact that Brandon Allen played yesterday. Who are some mid players that are currently in trend, which could force themselves into your lineups? Mid players, I have a lot to say about the word mid later on in the show and do matchups matter? Are there any matchups that we want to avoid in the fantasy playoffs or even a little bit before that?

Let's start with Philadelphia 37 and the Rams 20. Eagles look really good right now. They are arguably the best offense in football right now. I mean, they've been third best since they're by and they're arguably the best defensive football that they did. They have two big injuries on defense. Brandon Graham is out for the year. And also Bryce Huff, another pass rusher. He's on IR. And Darius Slay has a concussion. So that might mean he misses one game and

they get Baltimore on the road in week 13. But Jacob, what are your immediate takeaways from Philadelphia and the Rams? Yeah, man. The defense is insane. We got another 45 rush attempts for Philadelphia in this game. And so that's just really tough for the past game pieces that matter. But even still, A.J. Brown is just so good. They had a pretty dang good fantasy day. But like, this is just where we're at with the Eagles. They've faced a bunch of run funnel teams teams and they're going to continue to face those teams. And they're more than happy to just run the crap out of the ball, especially because their defense is suffocating right now. And so they are leading almost all the time. I it was interesting because like going into the game, I wasn't worried about the Rams receivers and a lot of people online told me how stupid that was

because of how good the Eagles are playing defensively. And it's like, I think these guys are just matchup proof. And we kind of saw it all be true where it's like, Puka is so good that even in this brutal matchup, he just makes amazing plays where he's diving and making the catch on the sideline and everything like, um, so yeah, it was, I don't know, it was basically like exactly what you, what I expected for each of these two teams. Uh, the Eagles are just really, really good. But the Rams are also good.

And I think are going to be really good for fantasy down the stretch when they don't have to play the Eagles. My takeaway is you come to Stoutland University and you come out unbelievable. It's quite crazy watching Jeff Stoutland, the Eagles offensive line coach, turnaround players, Mackay Bekton, who they, you know, was an all around bust for the Jets at offensive tackle, has come to the Eagles, converted to guard, and he's a weapon for them in the run game. You could see it when you watch the tape.

You could see it when you watch the broadcast. He took Jordan, my Alada from another country, never played the position before made him one of the best tackles in the entire NFL. So it's just something that I'm keeping an eye on in fantasy. As we move forward, follow these elite offensive line coaches, something similar happened in Tennessee this year with them getting Callahan, who's basically Hall of Fame, one of the best offensive line coaches in NFL history.

And look at Tony Pollard, look at that run game there despite not having great quarterback play. And honestly, they have good offensive line, J.C. Latham's been great, but it's not like the Eagles level. So it's just something I'm following. You follow these offensive line coaches, they dominate, and they put together offensive line units

that can produce run games like the Eagles and the Titans that are weekly plays for us in fantasy. And at this point, like both top 12 plays, obviously Barclay is the best player on the slate, but Pollard is a top 12 play at minimum every week. Yeah, second Barclay with the best game of his career, it's career high and rushing, 26 carries, 255 yards, two touchdowns, also four catches for 47 yards,

scored 46.2 fantasy points. He said, I'm thankful for the fresh start. A big reason why I wanted to come here is I felt like this is a spot where I could rewrite my story and show everyone the type of player that I feel like I can be and was meant to be, and it's working out right now, end quote. And I think, you know, people,

oh, I can't believe the Giants is in that. Like, let's just be happy for that Barkley. Where do you think he would be if he were on the Giants? He'd probably be like RB 10, you know, a good must start player, but with some bad weeks, some big weeks, he wouldn't be anything close to this. So I think it's worked out for everyone. You know, the Giants needed to move on.

He needed to move on. It's obviously worked out for the Eagles and good for him, I worked out for everyone. You know, the Giants needed to move on. He needed to move on. It's obviously worked out for the Eagles. And good for him, I'm happy for him. Every time I see this circulate on social media, like from every new account jumps on it, like, look at the Giants when Barkley goes off. It's like, if you are actually a Giants fan and you know anything about the Giants,

you know how far down the list this loss of Barkley actually is as far as this dysfunction and pathetic product that they put out there. Taegwon Barkley was 2-7 with the Giants and every year but one. He didn't help them win focal lines. They didn't win with Barkley. And let's not act like if he didn't have this offensive line that the Eagles have in his offensive environment, which he wouldn't have with the Giants this year, he would be doing these things. Like we need to put common sense back into the discussion. Yeah, no, that's not to say that it's all the offensive line. Obviously, he gets the second level.

It's incredible, but it's a perfect spot for him. Now, Jacob, you mentioned the low pass volume and the Eagles. I mean, look at the last seven games here, right? Since thereby, Jalen Hurts is the number three quarterback per game, but he has nine rushing touchdowns and nine passing touchdowns in those seven games. He is averaging 22 pass attempts per game. And it is just, I mean, it is affecting A.J. Brown.

I know he scored the touchdown in this game. He nearly had a second touchdown, but he had just had four straight games with fewer than 16 PPR fantasy points. So it's nothing against A.J. Brown, but this is his 17 game pace since the Eagles decided to be super run heavy. 83 catches for 1,477 yards, that's amazing.

Seven touchdowns on 112 targets. That's a phenomenal player, it's a great, it's a very good player, but it's not necessarily a first round player, just 112 targets. That's insane, that's his 17 game pace right now. And obviously he did this without Devontae Smith yesterday. There's no actionable item here. Like you're starting AJ Brown, I get it.

But Goddard is not necessarily a must start if Devontae's out, although Goddard was wide open for a touchdown and Jalen Hurts is bad. You know, he had a pretty good game. That was a bad throw. He had Goddard wide open. So it is just something to note. Like they are just too run heavy right now and

It's not great for Devante Smith. Obviously, it's not great for Dallas Goddard, but you're never gonna sit AJ Brown Further Rams, I think you pretty much know what to do with all of the Rams except maybe not Matthew Stafford I think if you didn't watch this game Stafford was pretty I Would say lucky with that touchdown to Cooper Cup late in the game. I would call it garbage time. It was pretty much a blowout at that point. What was the score? It was 37 to 13 at that point.

And he threw a late touchdown to Cup. So I kind of thought that the wide receivers would do well because they'd catch a ton of passes. And I thought Stafford would struggle. And at the end of the day, Stafford scores 23.2 points. You'll take it. But yeah, you're going to start Kyren. Although I got to say this about Kyren, guys.

In his last five games, six games, he has two games with five catches and he has four games with a combined one catch. So he's a little bit risky. But yeah, I don't know. These are two teams, I don't know we have major strong takes on them. It's really just Stafford to me is the guy that's gonna be

for the Rams anyway, the guy that's gonna be a question mark most weeks. So yeah, the strongest take I have is what you mentioned just now Adam and what Jacob mentioned on last week's Beyond the Box War, which is Devante Smith is more named than game at this point for fantasy. Obviously, he's in a phenomenal actual NFL talent and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Every time I watch the Eagles, it looks the same to me. Run, run, run. Find an ISO on the outside for AJ Brown.

Run, run, run. Maybe we'll find Al Scott are leaking out. Evan Brand But you wonder, can Baltimore be the team next week that like the Chargers game with the with the Bengals last week, right? Where Bengals are Chargers hadn't given up more than 20 points Finally, they get into a shootout. Finally, we get big volume. Couldn't Baltimore be the team that brings 30 plus pass attempts out of the Eagles? We'll see. But you know what? Let's move on and talk about some other things. And we'll, uh, we'll look at that later on in the week. So what's coming up on Beyond the Box score the other episode

this week, guys. So this week we make our transition over to Tuesdays on Fanning's Football Today Express. And we will be doing just Jacob and I for the rest of the season. So the focus is going to be on the data. We're gonna be diving deep into all these intricate data and all the sources and everything like that.

And I don't know where I went with that all this time. No, no, I was reading a comment. Oh, what? Adam Azer. Adam Azer. Like he's 12 hours removed. This one was great as I was on earlier Azer, it's like he's 12 hours removed. This one was great, as I was on earlier. Adam Azer looks like he's 12 hours removed

from asking a mechanical poor Dwalk genie to make him big. Yeah, I guess I think people think I look like really young in like where I am right now, I don't know. But yeah. Interesting, I didn't know that day. But yeah, so join us on Tuesdays, Jacob and I, at 1 p.m. Eastern every Tuesday from this point on.

It's basically just going to be a Jacob and I deep dive into stats, into tape, into film and things like that. Yeah. Like there's a bunch of stuff I want to watch before the show that we just don't get to. Like I really want to get into Arizona. How the heck they had six points. Like what happened there? I think it's probably the Mike McDonald's defense coming out of the by two weeks ago

is playing much better. And so like this just gives us the time and space to like really really get into everything and really go beyond the box score That's gonna be what we're doing Tuesdays alright, and what we're gonna be doing right now is taking a quick break giving you some news updates and We will be right back after this on fantasy football today Okay, welcome back everybody news and notes So we haven't got an update. Well, we did get actually a little bit of update, not a concrete one.

The Tommy DeVito will probably be okay to start on Thursday. Dable's optimistic, so hooray for Tommy DeVito. Gardner Minshew though, he's out for the season. And what do you think this means for Jacoby Myers, guys? I think it'll eventually be Aiden O'Connell, you'd think. But what do you guys think? They have Cleveland, then they have a bye,

maybe in week four, maybe that will be week 15 after the bye. Maybe we get Aiden O'Connell. But do you think Jacoby Myers is basically a must start guy? He's played super, super well. He was one of the guys I was gonna highlight. I'll just go ahead and do that now. I did look and when Desmond Ritter was in the game, he still had three targets Um, so similar type of target shared to what he's seen

But what he just did what myers just did is really really impressive because we talk about you know This denver defense all year long is one to avoid And for good reason prior to week 12 no receiver recorded more than six receptions in a game versus denver Myers had 10 this week Um, no receiver had been targeted more than 10 times versus the Broncos. He had 15 targets. That was shocking to me. That is the first time really that we've seen somebody just aggressively attack these corners. And in games that he has played without Devante Adams, he has a 28% target share and 15 PPR points per game, which would rank 16th

among wide receivers in terms of points per game on the year. Is it going to be worse without Minshew? I guess maybe, but it's not like it's, it's not like Minshew is elevating anything. So I think just given the way that the offense is funneling through him, you're still going to start him in most spots. Averaging 15 points per game in this offense with some pretty tough matchups mixed in there is really, really impressive. I thought, yeah, but no, I just want to say, by the way, I watched all of the certain snaps this morning and he did not shout. We knew he didn't shadow Jacoby Myers. He also did

not shadow Brock Bowers. Poor Trey Tucker got the tough matchup. He didn't shadow Tucker, but he was on him a lot. It was a strange game plan. I don't know why he didn't shadow Jacoby Myers, but he didn't. And so that's the end of the Denver matchups for Myers. Sorry to cut you off, Dan, but let's, I'm gonna just move on here so you can talk about some more interesting things. Trevor Lawrence is going to practice today on Monday.

So he's got a chance to play against Houston this weekend. Baker Mayfield left with a stinger, but I think he came back, he's fine. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Eckler are both injured right now. They have Tennessee, one of the best run defenses in football, and then they have a bye. So we'll obviously talk about the commander's running backs

on the WaverWire show. David Montgomery left in the third quarter, think he's okay. And Antonio Gibson, I mentioned this yesterday, played 13 snaps in the fourth quarter. Ramandre Stevenson played one snap, could have been game script, could have been, hey Ramandre, you are not doing anything.

I've been pretty frustrated with Ramandre Stevenson. They get the Colts this week. Wide receiver news, Josh Downs. This is not a super serious shoulder injury, but he's been classified as week to week. So maybe you won't get Josh Downs this week at New England. Then they have their bi-week, then they come back and they face the Broncos, Titans and Giants in the fantasy playoffs.

That's Josh Downs. So he might be out of your lineup for the next two weeks because it's at New England and then a bye. Romeo Dobbs concussion, Cedric Tillman is in the concussion protocol. They are at Denver and I'm super interested in that because I do feel, especially if Tillman is out, I do kind of feel like Patrick Sertan will be on Jerry Judy

a lot, but Judy had a 40% slot rate in week 12 against Pittsburgh. I'm excited about Judy, but this, you know, Denver, as you just heard from Jacob, is tough. So anyway, we'll get to that later in the week. Jutavean Sanders left in the second quarter with a neck injury. He's out of the hospital.

That's good news. Giants left tackle. Jermaine Illuminaur left in the first quarter. They did not need that. Detroit's left tackle. Taylor Decker left in the third quarter. I think he came back. Washington's got two injuries on the offensive line.

And Cam Robinson left tackle for the Vikings is hurt. San Francisco offensive guard Aaron Banks left with a concussion. Seattle offensive guard Anthony Bradford left too. And I will leave it at that with the injuries except the Buccaneers on defense. Jordan Whitehead out for the season with a torn pec safety.

And cornerback Carlton Davis left with a knee injury. So keep an eye on them. They're at Carolina next week. Now it's time for the Workhorse to Watch segment brought to you by Microsoft Copilot Plus PCs powered by Snapdragon, the fastest, most intelligent Windows PCs ever. In this segment, we'll identify a player

whose battery just doesn't seem to run out, similar to Copilot Plus PCs. And Dan, that player today is Josh Jacobs, who has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. I'm sorry, three of his last four games and phenomenal stuff. And we're loving what we're seeing

from Josh Jacobs right now. Yeah, this was a player Jacob and I discussed on last Thursday's Beyond the Box score. It's a good buy now type player because he was due touchdown regression and that's exactly what's happening right now. Obviously didn't score as many touchdowns we want in the first half of the season that's progressing now he's getting in the end zone which changes his fantasy outcome by a massive margin and that seems to continue will to me seems like it will continue down the stretch for multiple reasons.

One, I think that Jordan Love and the offense will find their groove and two, the schedule is very good for Josh Jacobs and for this offense. So I expect him to be pretty much a top five play rest of season. All right, Josh Jacobs, Miami next week at Detroit, which is the one game in this stretch that he struggled with. Yeah. At Seattle, New Orleans, at Minnesota, pretty vicious run defense in week 17. But so far, so good for Josh Jacobs. That was the Workhorse to Watch segment brought to you by Microsoft Co-Pilot Plus PCs. Whether you're multitasking like never before, working far from power

outlets or sketching your own ideas into existence, you can do it with the new Microsoft Copilot Plus PC powered by Snapdragon. Battery life varies by device and with usage and settings. Time now for our email of the day. It is from Tony. And the subject line was, Dan's a fraud. Well, that certainly got me to click. All right, he says, Dan's a fraud.

On last week's Mailbag show, he said he was a huge fan of the show, Are You Afraid of the Dark? And had a bootleg box set, which is a wild and telling admission. It's the equivalent to someone saying they were a big fan of Hanging with Mr. Cooper, wild. Anyway, while Adam, whose job is based in digital media,

was somehow having trouble cropping a photo, Dan read a YouTube comment, a YouTube question with the riddle, what can you put in a barrel that makes a barrel lighter? And Dan brushed it off as a random riddle question. It was a reference to, are you afraid of the darks first episode? Yeah. I guess that was one of the missing episodes from his bootleg box set.

Typical Dan, really strong take with no substance behind it. And all serious, this all serious is no mailbag is my favorite FFT show. I thought this was a classic email. So here we go. You're Dan exposed, fake fan. Chat is turning on me, Dan. This one's going to You're dead exposed fake fan. The chat is turning out. Like this one's gonna be tough to come back from all the evidence is right out there in front of my face and I would

have been exposed as a fake. Are you afraid of the dark fan? Yeah, that's okay. I didn't remember you remembered Midnight Society. So you got that? Yeah. All right, Jacob, take it away with the advanced stuff that we need to know. All right. Yeah, we've got a bunch this week. This week was wild, man. This week was like a great reminder that we don't know anything in a lot of ways. Some were fun, some were not.

Like, I couldn't believe how good Bryce Young looked. Bryce Young legitimately looked better than CJ Stroud yesterday. I was like just shocked, and I really like what the Panthers are doing. They're using more motion. They're seventh in motion this week. That is crept up as the year has progressed.

And Bryce yesterday was blitzed like crazy and he had an answer for it almost all the time. Like he was, these receivers weren't coming down with some of these passes, but like he was almost always giving people a chance to make plays. And if he wasn't, it was because he was just getting rid of the ball and not taking a negative play.

I was, I think this is the best I've ever seen him play That's gonna be a game that I'm gonna watch for tomorrow show. That's number one on my list Definitely definitely like he he was just standing in against pressure And staring it down and making throws to the seam like all over the field just spraying just like right on the money And he also scrambled I got away from stuff and made some plays his legs The other thing I want to hit on with Carolina was we saw a 36 percent first three target rate for David Moore Which is just super random and I think is actually a Jalen Coker note I think when Coker gets back it'll be him and feeling and

League it as the three receiver sets and I was a Little bit nervous as somebody who has a lot of the two rookie receivers that we're gonna see a ton of Adam Thielen yesterday. Could just be that it was the first game back, but he really didn't seem to be getting open at all and wasn't targeted hardly at all.

So unless they just go away from him entirely, I think we'll see Coker step right back into that role. And he has that kind of like first retarget upside that we saw David Moore fill yesterday. We've seen him get those types of targets this year. Yeah, I just want to point out one thing about Thielen is that he had at least two end zone targets. I'm not sure if either of them counted.

On one of them, he drew a pass interference. On another, he had the ball in his hands and it got smashed out of his hands on a big hit. And I can't remember if they threw a flag on that. So those may not count as targets. I'm looking right now that he had, he had one end zone target. So I think that one did not get flagged, but he had one official end zone target. He had another one. He drew a pass interference. Um, but what was, you know, he had, what a only a four, only a 15% target per run rate for Thielen. Okay.

Yeah, he played a lot, like two-thirds of the snaps. He just wasn't really a factor. Arizona was probably the biggest disappointment for me this week. I was so excited for the Cardinals coming out of their buy. That offense is like basically top 10 in every efficiency metric, rushing, receiving anything. And then they put up six points against Seattle, which might be a Mike McDonald note. The Seahawks, the Stevenson's play pretty tough in the two weeks coming out of the bye. So excited to dig into that more. But yeah, I really, really was bummed about the MHJ usage. I thought they would find creative ways to get the ball in his hands.

Instead Marvin Harrison Jr. had the highest average route depth that he has since week five. So yeah, that's something I'll, we'll report back on that tomorrow, but absolutely insane usage for Trey McBride. Trey McBride had a 59% first read target rate, which was obviously the highest on the week. And I think that's the highest I've seen for a tight end all year, even with the Brock Bowers games,

I think that's the highest. It was just him all day, like very first play there. It's a designed rollout to Trey McBride. And they just like kept going to him over and over and man This guy is so good Just like for reference on where he's at historically Among tight ends that are under the age of 25 and have had 300 or more routes run an Average two or more yards per outrun

There's only been seven over the past 10 years. And two of those are McBride. The only one with a higher yard per outrun rate than McBride has this year is George Kittle. The other guys are Travis Kelsey, Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts, and Mark Andrews. He's really, really an elite player. And like, I don't, maybe he'll literally just never score

receiving touchdown, but I doubt that is actually going to be the case. Thank you, Adam. I mean, I was about to make a touchdown joke, you know, but thank you, you took it away from me. Assuming like he does start scoring touchdowns and it's like, this guy is the tight end one. Like that's basically where I had him last week. And then Ben Gretsch talked me into Brock Bowers,

which I think makes sense, like to be that excited about Bowers. But it's like, I think it makes sense to put Trayvon Bright in that same exact company. Like he's been so freaking good and his offense, I think is going to be a lot better than the Raiders. So there is the upside for touchdowns. Okay.

I want to talk about Caleb Williams. He continues to play better. I'm really excited to get in and watch this game. He had the fourth highest passer rating for a quarterback that's faced Minnesota's defense all year behind a bunch of veterans Brock Purdy, Stafford and golf. The Vikings have been so tough. I was really, really worried about Caleb because his upcoming matchups just looks like a buzzsaw that he's going to get put through. But like he came through pretty much unscathed in this one. The Vikings only got pressure on 22% of the drop backs. I thought that was interesting. That's the lowest pressure rate that they've

generated all season.. I thought that was interesting. That's the lowest pressure rate that they've generated all season. So I think that- Well, hey man, this is the healthiest his line has been in forever. Yeah. Yeah, let's go. I think that is like partially a line note. And then also he's getting the ball out quicker. His time to throw is the lowest it's been all year.

That's two straight games where he's recorded a new low. Also he's navigating the pocket well and scrambling. He still takes some sacks that he shouldn't, but he did have five scrambles again. That's back to back games. He was only averaging two and a half per game under Shane Waldron. So he's doubled that in each of the past two games. And the guy who really benefits from it apparently is Keenan Allen, which I guess makes sense with getting the ball out quickly.

14 first three targets for Keenan Allen in this game over the past two games since the change at offensive coordinator. He has a 34% first retarded rate. Romo Dunze has a 26% first retarded rate. DJ Moore's is 22%. So pretty interesting stuff in Chicago. I'm curious what you guys think about DJ Moore, because I think we're pretty encouraged after the first game, but not so much with this one. Did you see his A-dot the last two games? It's been, yeah. So his A-dot in the first game with Thomas Brown

as offensive coordinator week 11 was negative. It was less than zero behind him. In this game, it was like four yards or something. So they keep doing these wide receiver screens to him. I don't really love that. I mean, it's working, I guess. He's getting a lot of catches. He turned one of them into a touchdown,

I believe in this game, but I don't love that. That's so gimmicky to me. I don't say it's gonna continue. I still view DJ Moore, they threw 47 passes in this game. They played in overtime. They only had 46 in regulation. I still view DJ Moore as like a borderline number two receiver, I think.

Yeah. I think that's how I feel. And Alan now in the flex discussion, I literally just cut him before this week. And I don't know. I don't trust it. He's been so bad this year. I don't, yeah. I don't, he's not like he hasn't been getting targets, you know, he's been

just bad. He really doesn't look good running routes out there. Like all those off season articles about how much weight he put on and we were like laughing him off. Well, kind of looks like it's playing out a little bit at least. Yeah, to your note.

When I see him catch a ball, I'm like, oh, it's Romo, oh no, it's Keenan Allen. He just looks big. He looks big, I don't know. To your note about there being a ton of plays, there were, it was 73 offensive plays in this game. Only the Raiders had more this week On the like short a dot note. I wanted to bring up the Jackson Smith and Jigba

We talked about last week how like in the second half they final things to him more This week he had a 36 percent first retarded rate DK Metcalf had a 29 percent first retarded rate So another signal of him potentially kind of becoming the one. And Metcalf completely disappeared in the second half, which is what happened last week as well. He just hasn't been effective. I don't know if he's all the way healthy or what is going on, but only one first retarget for Metcalf in the second half. And then Jackson Smith-Ajiba created almost all of his yardage after the catch 66 out of whatever he finished with 77 receiving yards came after the catch his a dot was 1.9 yards That is a little bit frustrating because he had just been torching defenses down the field the past two games And then this week they kind of went back to the short roll

I mean, I'm still psyched to see him get the looks but I just I wish we could see him like unleashed down the field You know who was unleashed on the field, Jaylen Waddle by far the best game of his season. Um, that was only the second game over the past two years that Waddle has had over a hundred air yards. I cut up like all his targets. If you want to go watch those on, on my Twitter feed, he had another, um, almost touchdown where it was inaccurate throw by two of the almost got intercepted and wobbled it and almost caught it

So it could have been an even bigger day, but he did all this with only a 19% first retarget rate Because the offense continues to just funnel through John Smith I don't know if that's like a revenge game thing or something but massive first retarget rate for John Smith again above 30% He now leads the Dolphins in receiving first downs on the year ahead of Tyree kill. He's just been so good. And the usage backs it up that it's not just like something random. Um, I, you know, I was trying to look, this is one thing I didn't

get to see if Christian Gonzalez shadowed Tyree kill. And I just thought like, even if he didn't do that great of a job on Tyreek Hill, if you're Tua and you got obviously their best cornerback by far on Tyreek and you're not one of those teams that has one wide receiver, you know, you can throw to Achan and Waddle and Smith. I wonder if that's what happened. I don't know.

I think there was a little bit of that. I am seeing a tweet from Alex Barth. It says Christian Gonzalez in coverage per PFF's initial charting. First Tyreek Hill versus Tyreek Hill. One target, one catch, 10 yards. Versus Jaylen Waddell, one target, one catch, 14 yards. So he is really good.

I know I talk about him a lot, but he's a good player. And I'm going to guess that Hill had a lot more Gonzalez than Wadddle did. When I, it was weird, like I wasn't watching that game too much. Man, it was tough to watch like seven games at once. I was in the office, had to have all the games out at the same time and it's really hard to focus and that game I wasn't watching that much of. But when I did watch, it seemed like he was typically around Tyreek. So I think that may have played into it with Tyreek just not having that good of a game and the other guys all having better games.

You know, HM with the two touchdowns and Hill and Jalen Waddle going crazy. Yeah. Tyreek only had a 16% first retarget rate. So that was below Waddle and that's the lowest I've seen his in a long, long time. So I do think that probably makes some sense that he was covered by Gonzalez a lot. A couple first retarget rates I wanted to hit on and then I've got a few more notes, just two more after that. Devon Vailay for the Broncos had a 29% first three target rate,

which tied Cortland Sutton's. He's just been kind of working his way into a bigger role all year. I haven't taken the Broncos that seriously, but I have been looking into them more and more, and he's intriguing. Some of his per-route data is decent. This might be a guy to have on your radar.

I know people have already been picking him up in deeper leagues and stuff. They they like him a lot. Yeah. 29 percent first retarget rate for Romeo Dobbs, who is concussed and almost assuredly not going to play on Thursday. So if the we'll see if if Miami's offense is able to put points on the board in the cold, but if Green Bay can like finally be forced to not run the ball on two thirds of their freaking plays,

then I think we're live with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. I know it's been incredibly frustrating for those two, but like surely we're gonna see the Packers start to throw the ball more of the next couple of games. Like they've got Detroit after that. So yeah, that was an encouraging note for Dobbs, but I do think that usage has got to shift somewhere else

because he's going to be out. Bucky Irving, Bucky Irving week. There was a lot this week that made me feel like a fool. I was validated by my boy Bucky Irving. He's so good. And I've just been pounding the table all year that I really do think he can just overtake Rashad White and be like the guy.

I know White has been good as a receiver, has made lots of explosive plays as a receiver, but Bucky Irving's been really good as a receiver too. He had over 700 yards receiving in his two final years at the collegiate level. He is fifth in the NFL in yards for our run among 36 qualified running backs on the year ahead of Rashad White. Rashad White is ninth. There's nothing negative against White. He's a good receiver, but it's like, maybe Bucky's better. Maybe Bucky is just the guy. We finally saw Bucky play more. He had a higher snap rate than White for the first time in his career, and

he had a 59% route rate. Rashad White's is only 34%. That was the first time whites rate has been below 40% since his rookie season. So this really is unprecedented. And I mean, it makes sense. The guy is making crazy plays all the time. I have one more note on the, on the bucks backfield since, since Tampa Bay, since Rashad white came back from his injury, it's the last five games.

The Rashad white I think is is gonna keep the third down roll. But how about just the first and second down snaps between White and Irving? It's been pretty close for each of the first four weeks since Rashad White came back, like White plus one, Irving plus five, White plus three, White plus one. It's been pretty close, the first and second down snaps. It was Bucky Irving plus 13. 33 first and second down snaps. It was Bucky Irving plus 13.

33 first and second down snaps yesterday for Bucky. Rashad White with only 20. My, yeah, it's like, I don't know what that could change. My other concern is that Sean Tucker was their goal lineback. He came in at the one yard line twice. He scored once, he fumbled once, but that sucks. If they're just trying to find some type of role

for Sean Tucker and it's that role, that's annoying. But since he throws the running back so much, if he's gonna be on the field more than Rashad White, Bucky Irving's gonna be pretty good. This is assuming rational coaching and that's always dangerous, but it's like, are you gonna keep doing that? You've got to win.

You have to, the Bucks, you have to win basically every game. Like, are you gonna keep playing around and trying to make this guy who fumbled to the goal line your goal line back when you have a guy who's awesome in every regard, every facet of the game? Like, that doesn't make any sense. That doesn't make any sense to me that you wouldn't just like let Bucky be the guy. Yeah. Will Levis, you brought this up on yesterday's recap. And I thought it was a really fun note. He got sacked seven times in the first half. That's the most first half sacks

that a quarterback has taken since 2010. And since 2000, there've only been four quarterbacks who've been sacked seven or more times in the first half. Will Levis is the first one to accomplish that and win the game. I love Will Levis stats. They're so ridiculous. I wanna know if Dan, you know what?

We gotta take a break and we'll come back, we'll finish up. But I wanna know if Dan is buying into what, we got to take a break and we'll come back. We'll finish up. But I want to know if Dan is buying into Will Levis and or Bo Nix because he is, he was not big on those guys. I want to know how he's feeling about Will Levis and Bo Nix. We're going to take a break, finish up with Jacob stats, get into our big topics. We'll be right back after this. Okay.

We are back here. So anything you want to finish up on Levis, Jacob, or you want to throw it to Dan? Um, I don't have Yeah, I don't have a whole lot more. I just wanted to bring up that like Stroud again was pressured a ton. And just, I wanted to get some thoughts on him. He wasn't one of the big topics. Where are you guys at? Nico Collins was able to get out of it unscathed. Even though he had another touchdown called back. But man this offense they've got there's so much potential because they have matchups where it could be massive shootouts down the stretch but they're also matchups where it's like that defense could really get a lot of pressure like the Chiefs and the Dolphins and it's like I I'm losing faith every every passing week Stroud looks really rattled

Yeah, I've lost faith a while ago I feel like this happens sometimes with rookie quarterbacks going into year two, running the same system, a lot more tape on them, and they're taking away concepts that worked for Stroud in year one. Where is Tank Del, and why aren't we seeing Tank Del as a weekly staple in this offense,

somebody who can move the ball and produce offense for them on a weekly basis, and that's part of the issue as well. I have lost faith in them. I think their offensive line is at a bad, really bad, uh, point for them this season as well. So I think that's playing a huge factor. I wouldn't say I've lost faith.

I mean, I think Nico Collins is so good that he's, I think, oh yeah. No, I mean, in Stroud, I think Nico Collins can make CJ Stroud relevant. And CJ Stroud is good. I mean, he, he throws like a lot of nice balls and I think for much of the game, he looks pretty good. But then there's just too many negative plays. There's too many sacks and way too many interceptions right now.

Interceptions are crushing him and taking points off the board and taking fantasy points off the board. So it's hard to- He doesn't really, he doesn't run. No, he doesn't run. Margin of error is so thin for him. He has to essentially light it up as a passer on a weekly basis to be fantasy relevant or

to be like a top fantasy play. I didn't think he played poorly against Dallas on Monday night. I just thought it was like Joe Mixon's night. And then that you had that Nico Collins, 75 year touchdown, whatever call back. I don't know. I don't think he's certainly not a must start, but he's not a draw. I wouldn't necessarily drop him. I just think if he cleans it not a must start, but he's not a, I wouldn't necessarily drop him. I just think if he cleans it up a little bit,

there's enough good in there personally, I think. There's enough good with Nico Collins back that he could have some good weeks. All right, Jacob, anything else? No, you want to talk about Boonex? I want to talk about Boonex. I want to talk about just some snap counts real quick. Tony Pollard played 94% of the snaps without Tajay Spears.

Jonathan Taylor played 96% of the snaps. Amir Abdullah played 90% of the snaps. So if you get another week without White and Madison, you get a workhorse in Abdullah, but he's got Kansas City, who's not just great against the run, they're also great against pass catching running backs. I wanted to talk about Cade Otten,

one catch for 30 yards on three targets against the Giants. He had an 87.5% route participation that was sixth best amongst tight ends, so he still had a great role even with Mike Evans back. I didn't talk about this on the recap last night because I didn't really take it that seriously, and I don't, I still don't really, but the Giants are number one against tight ends. They are the hardest matchup in fantasy. They see on average about four tight end targets per game, the fewest tight end targets per game.

I might be wrong about them being first. They might be first, second or third, but they are one touchdown this year allowed to a tight end. It was Jitavion Sanders. So I don't know if it was just a tough matchup. Like I don't buy the Giants personnel, but they're doing something right against tight ends. And it was a bad game for Otten,

but that gave me a little bit more hope. TJ Hawkinson played 68% of the snaps. That was his highest snap share by far. And Johnny Munt filling in for Josh Oliver played 46% of the snaps. So it was still good. So I don't think it was just necessarily Oliver being out that Hawkinson played the most that he's played all year.

De'Andre Hopkins only played 45% of the snaps. And with Juju Smith Schuster on the field Juju Smith-Schuster on the field, 37 snaps with Juju on the field, Hopkins was on the field for 14 snaps. He's being out snapped by Justin Watson. So it's like, I know we caught the touchdown, he gets some end zone targets, but he just will not. I don't think it's ever gonna happen.

I don't think he's ever gonna play enough to be consistent. And another good encouraging week for Jamison Williams. They didn't throw that much. He led the team in receiving, I believe, but he's had a target share around 20 to 21%, Jamison Williams, for three straight weeks. And last two weeks, he's had an A-dot below 12 yards. If you're watching on YouTube, I have no idea where to look.

I don't have my normal camera, so my eyes are all over the place. But yeah, encouraging stuff, I think for Jameson, not as encouraging in my opinion for DeAndre Hopkins, even though we caught the touchdown, encouraging stuff for TJ Hawkinson and for Kate Otten. I'm hopeful that it was just a matchup thing. All right, I think we'll get your, yeah, yeah, go ahead.

I meant to mention on Kate Otten, they did a 9% first read target rate this week, which is really, really low. And I think that's just kind of what we can expect with Evans back. We've not seen him be productive with Evans back. We've never seen him with just Evans. We've seen him with Evans and Godwin.

This was the first game with just Evans and it was really discouraging on paper. Will they throw more when they're not running for four touchdowns, first of all, against the worst team in football? And then was it just a bad matchup against the Giants? That's my glimmer of hope for UK dot and managers. All right. We have our four big topics and and bonus will come up in one of them. So we'll talk about that. But give me your quick thoughts on Will Leviston. So short term, I think Callahan may have been

able to figure out something that can work for him occasionally, not consistently. A lot of bootlegs, which is something he had to do with a player like Will Levis, get him out of the pocket, define reads, let him throw down field. Long term, I have absolutely no faith that he will be a good quarterback in the NFL. I will stand by that. I will have that take now. It's what? November 25th, 2024. We'll revisit this at any point 2025, 2026, 2027. I am still not sold the Titans won't draft a quarterback in this coming class to replace Will Levis right away. So that's my take on him.

And we'll get to Knicks, I guess in the big topics. Well, I did some in person scouting this weekend. I was at the Miami game, the Miami Wake Forest game, saw a little Cam Ward. What do you think? No, I'm not really feeling it anymore. I don't know. at the Miami game, the Miami Wake Forest game, saw a little Cam Ward. What do you think? No, I'm not really feeling it anymore. I don't know. I'm not really, this is not a great quarterback class.

Of course the Giants are gonna get a top pick in a class like this. Yeah, yeah. All right, time for our four big topics. And we're gonna go, I'm gonna give you guys three minutes on each. Ken Meyer says, is it time to panic on some elite wide receivers?

Justin Jefferson and Malik neighbors. Those were the two that he asked about Jefferson and neighbors. Are we panicking? Well, I said last week, we should be panicking on neighbors. I was, you know, people came back at me for that, I think on the show. And I understand why, but I have to understand when things are not guaranteed to get better with Tommy DeVito and it looks like they're almost going to get worse with DeVito because the offense is going to punt more. One thing that the Giants are actually good at before benching Daniel Jones was plays per drive.

They were six most in the NFL in plays per drive, a really surprising stat for the Giants offense. A lot of people didn't see their biggest issue was getting down to the red zone and not scoring. Well, now those plays per drive are done because they didn't have good plays per drive in this game against the Bucs. They're hunting a lot. It's three and out a lot. The whole first half was a disaster, 35 passing yards. So now with Jermain and Luminor, their right tackle was moved to left tackle injured.

They're down to their third and fourth tackles. Interior offensive line is not playing as well as it was. This just looks like a dead offense to me. So like he could still get games like this one, Adam, six for 64, I think, where we're looking at a lot of games where he'll have the number of yardage that the first number in his yardage is the same number as his reception. So you know, 10 yards per catch type of situation. The league neighbors is since week seven, since the Andrew Thomas injury, he is number 33,

wide receiver 33 per game in PPR. He doesn't have a touchdown. He has the fourth most targets since week seven among wide receivers. The 13th highest target per route run rate, the highest target share among wide receivers, but he's 26 and yards. He has zero touchdowns.

He has one red zone target. He has one end zone target. And his yak per catch is 1.6 yards. Wow. Since week seven, the first game without Andrew Thomas. His big play rate, his explosive play rate, there are 49 wide receivers who have had 25 or more targets since week seven. CD Lamb has the lowest big play rate, his explosive play rate, there are 49 wide receivers who have had 25 or more targets since week seven.

C.D. Lamb has the lowest big play rate. Wondell Robinson, the second lowest. Malik Nabors, the third lowest. I view him as a, similar to DJ Moore, borderline two, three wide receiver. I think it was encouraging that obviously at halftime, they were like, oh, can we get him going? And they threw to him, I think,

on the first three plays of the half, but they're just the worst offense in football and they're never gonna score a touchdown for the rest of eternity. So Jacob, what do you think about Justin Jefferson? I think it's kind of interesting to think about Jefferson that the Vikings were, before Hockenson came back, 28th in tight end target rate and now they'reth in tight end target rate, and now they're

seventh in tight end target rate. So, and now Addison's got this target share the last couple of weeks. So, do you think Justin Jefferson is a top 12 wide receiver? I think he's probably the borderline that per game full season. Yeah. I pretty much anytime you ask me about somebody like Justin Jefferson or CD Lam or whoever, like unless there's some huge change in the infrastructure, I'm not going to have changed my opinion. Like there is with AJ Brown, they're running the ball way, way more.

I guess with Minnesota, like the left tackle is a problem, but other than that, like I would expect him to be fine. I would expect him to be a top five guy. Yeah, me too. I think, you know, we're going beyond the box score. So I'll give you a little beyond the box score here. Like Minnesota is still a low pass rate team, but in their last four games, since Hawkinson has come back, they have run the most plays in the NFL and they have thrown 33, 34 passes per game, something

like that. So, you know, a 34.5 pass attempts per game. So if he were dealing with Hawkinson and Addison on this low pass volume team, like we saw in the first seven games when they averaged 27 pass attempts per game, that might be a problem. If they go back to that, that might be a problem, but it's Justin Jefferson.

Like who the heck's gonna sit Justin Jefferson? The worst combination would be his target chair kind of remains not super impressive and they get back to throwing 27 passes per game. Benjamin Murray is our second big topic. What do we do with the 49ers the rest of the way specifically, Debo Samuel, Jacob? Yeah, the Niners, I don't like, I don't share the optimism that you do because I don't trust the medical reporting there and I have no idea what's going on. I don't like maybe he'll be back but I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me if he's not back this week and they lose and it's like just over.

So I don't really trust these guys. As far as Debo independent of all that, like just how he's playing, I did watch every single route that he ran last week. He looks normal. He looks fine to me. I had wondered if maybe he wasn't. Some people, I've heard people say that like he's not getting involved in the office as much and they think he's not as healthy. It's true that like they are running the offense through Joanne Jennings, but they also were designing some things to Dibo and he looked like basically the same guy. I think it's mostly just that Purdy has been, he's gotten programmed where he's like hero

balling so much this year that that leads to more Juwan Jennings type of looks than Dibo Samuel type of looks. But they have more zone heavy matchups coming up and I would expect Dibo if all things are equal with the offense to be basically what we normally get with Depot. If Purdy's in the line of book force. Yeah, we need Purdy. Right. And I did mention, I don't remember when, Wednesday maybe, he's got going into the week,

Depot Samuel has the fourth lowest open score on the ESPN metrics, fourth lowest out of 121 wide receivers. But I also mentioned that he doesn't usually score highly in that No, he's almost always toward the bottom. This is bad. But it was almost okay Yeah, and yeah as Heath mentioned you saw him on that kickoff return. He looked incredible, right? So yeah still has the explosiveness I think that whole offense though has really looked terrible to me from watching that game the offensive line without Trent Williams We talked about that a lot in past seasons on FFT, like the impact of not having Williams on the field.

And it was pretty obvious in that game. I went back and watched the one thing I had a chance to do this morning was watch all the McCaffrey snaps because I have him and somebody. What are you nodding at? The chat, the chat. You got to turn the chat off. Creepy chat. There were some weird stuff going on in the chat today.

I had to go off the chat tab. Creepy chat. There was some weird stuff going on in the chat today. I had to go off the chat tab to the private chat tab. The chat said earlier that I look like I would camp out in front of Bass Pro on Black Friday. I'm like, where is that coming from? I've never hunted in my life. Yeah. Yeah, I didn't get that either. Having watched Spencer's.

Spencer's. I can't see Jacob as a Spencer's guy. Do you remember Spencer's growing up? Oh my God. That's like the goth store. Jacob. Yeah, we would go in there, but they had like funny things for teenagers.

Yeah. Like a school thing. That's exactly what it was, yeah. But my point was on McCaffrey, just watching those snaps back. I think the failure right now is with the blocking scheme and the run game right now in San Fran, was on McCaffrey, uh, just watching those snaps back. I think the failure right now is with the, the, the blocking scheme and the run game right now in San Fran more than McCaffrey. I was surprised and enthused to see that as somebody who has McCaffrey and waited out

for so long. I was like, is this guy just done? No, I think that's the issues. They need pretty back. They need trim Williams back ASAP. Okay. Oh man. I got, I went, I was trying to look up this 49ers Super Bowl odds, but I'm unable to right

now. I am curious what they are too to see if you can get it out of a good. I don't think it's going to be what you think. They, okay, they're probably missing their three best players yesterday and you could argue it, but Bosa, Williams, Purdy. They obviously need to get healthy. If they get healthy and I, and look, they, they seemed optimistic that Purdy's coming back next week. Trent Williams was kind of a game time decision. so I'm optimistic that he'll come back. Bosa, I don't know.

But, you know, it makes a big difference when you don't have your quarterback and your left tackle. And again, they're one game out of first place with a five and six record. What do you got? This is accurate. They're plus 6,600. If this is accurate.

That's an insane line. Like that's like, it's so valid. Why is this, this can't be right? I think it's over guys. I don't know. I mean, I can't believe they're getting sad oints right now against the Bills on the opening line. Yeah, all right.

Let's go to our next big topic here. And oh, this is where I talk about the word mid. Broken Helmet podcast says mid players who are currently in trend, like Cortland Sutton, who could force themselves into your lineups. It's a good question, right? Because do you keep riding it out with Malik neighbors? Like obviously I'm starting Cortland Sutton

over Malik neighbors, but do you ride it out with Malik neighbors? You go with like a Jacobi Myers or somebody who's not quite as good as Cortland Sutton or a Jerry Judy, you know? Hopefully you can start both, but who are some players that have become must starts? And the whole mid thing, I think Cam Ward actually,

so I was listening, yeah, I was listening to Cam Ward, post game radio on the drive home, and the guy asked like, how would you rate yourself today? He said, I'd say mid. Like that just sounds so weird, and you're not even using it ironically. Like people are using it for reals, like IRL. What's the word mid? It's not a word. It's like part of a word.

It's like you rather say I said middling. I played middling. Yeah. That wouldn't make sense either. How about average? Okay. Mid. I don't like things. It shows this disconnect you have with the younger generation. You're too old now. You can't understand. Oh, yeah. They have their own slang. We had our slang too back in the day. Okay. We had our own slang that we used to say. Yeah. Fat P H A T. Aren't you glad that's gone? Aren't you glad that's gone? I am. But we used to say it at the time. All right. But we're but we were kids. Adults. No, no, no. No, no. Okay. He's fine. He's fine. He's fine. I'm saying adults, we should not be saying mid. Okay, I don't know if we need to as adults

be policing what other adults say and don't say. I think that's exactly what we need to be doing. That's right. Exactly what we need to be doing. All right, anyway, Sutton and Bo Nix are two that I wanted to talk about here. Sutton is an absolute must start. He's got, I think now tied to Marius Thomas' Broncos record,

five straight games with 70 yards. I believe I read that. I'm sorry if I got that wrong, but I feel like that's true. Either way, he's just absolutely on fire. Eight or more targets in five straight games. And I love the chemistry between him and Bo Nix. You will see Nix throw to Cortland Sutton before he even makes his break. Okay, they just, they just know where, he just knows where he is, and I love the chemistry between him and Bo Nix. You will see Nix throw to Cortland Sutton before he even makes his break.

They just know where, he just knows where he is. And I love it. So Sutton's in there. Bo Nix, I'm more confident in. He hasn't even been running lately. And we know that's part of his game. But the last three games, not really running. He's been over 20 points.

I know, the last two games. Been over 20 points, two straight. Oh no, I was right. Three straight without a lot of rushing. So he's in there for me. Not necessarily a must start the last two games, been over 20 points, two straight. Oh no, I was right, three straight, without a lot of rushing. So he's in there for me, not necessarily a must start because you have other good quarterbacks, but I like him. What do you think about Bo Nix, Dan?

How are you feeling about him? A little more optimistic? Definitely a little bit more optimistic about Bo Nix. I think Jacob did a good job breaking down last week and I think you could find it on his Twitter page, like all of Bo Nix's 20 plus yard throws on the season. Still think most of what he's doing this year is within the scheme

and within what Sean Payne has cooked up for him. But you made a great point. There is some anticipation and some anticipatory throwing on his tape, like especially with Courtney Sutton, they've developed a nice rapport fast and he's getting the ball out quick. And his ball placement hasn't been bad.

Some good arm talent examples, the touchdown to Sutton from this week was a really good job changing his arm slot, putting enough touch on the ball to get it over the top and allow him to make a play away from his frame. And he did for the touchdown. So I have to warm up to Bo Nix. I personally am skeptical of this long-term.

When you have that kind of arm talent, you can't challenge defenses in my mind at least on a consistent basis top down. It's more, you know, you know within the scheme Mm-hmm. It scares me long term if I had to bet right now Wilbo Knicks be a great starter in two three years. My bet is still easily definitely no personally But it's hard to ignore what he's doing his anticipation has been better. He's got good feel for this offense He's playing within this scheme. He's doing everything they ask he can run so

Fantasy wise, I mean, he's been unbelievable. His ball placement hasn't been bad on those deep throws, but I would say it has been mid. Yeah. And that's backed up statistically. He actually going into this week led the entire NFL in deep throws, which is nuts, like by volume, total deep throws.

And he had the lowest turnover worthy throw rate. But all of his accuracy stuff was 20 to 30th. And so what that tells me, and I think what you'll see if you watch that clip that I have of all of his deep throws is that there's some wild throws in there, especially early, where it's like he's it's almost Anthony Richardson type stuff, where he's missing people way, way over the top. And it's not a turnover worthy throw because no one could have gotten to it. But it's also not a catchable throw and you see that reflected in like his catchable target

rate is highly accurate throw rate and stuff like that. He's definitely gotten better as the year goes on, but I still see him do stuff where it's just like, you've got to clean up the mechanics on this or it's just, I don't know how it's going to work. I think he can work in this system with Sean Payton, but I feel like this is basically a ceiling already. He's kind of reached it. It's like he can operate the system really well, but he's not necessarily gonna elevate it.

It's kind of what people thought, I think Brock Purdy was early on in Shanahan system, but with Purdy, it's like, I do feel like he was showing the traits as a passer to where like, there might be improvement and then we've seen that improvement come to fruition. Maybe may be a will of Nick, it's possible that I'm just biased, that's what people keep telling me.

I'm a chief fan. There was some Purdy slander on our shows yesterday that I was really not happy with. Cause I, you talk about throwing with anticipation, Brock Purdy is so damn good at that. That's amazing. Throw us the guys and you're like, that guy's not open at all.

My gosh, now he's open. Brock Purdy is great at that. Obviously the system helps, but Brock Purdy's amazing. Throw us the guys and you're like, that guy's not open at all. My gosh, now he's open. Brock Purdy is great at that. Obviously the system helps, but Brock Purdy is great. And then I said that you guys can get in on this debate. Jamie was saying that like everyone in the 49ers organization will tell you that Trent Williams is their most important player. And I kind of, I think he pushed, I think he like reeled it in a little bit.

And I said, okay, it's the Super Bowl. The 49ers game is about to start in the Super whatever. And you have to, you're, you know, you have to choose one player to not play. Would it be Brock Purdy or Trent Williams? Like who would you rather be without, you know, and that's what I think it's got to be Purdy, you know, I'd be pretty, but no, no, no, you'd rather be without Trent Williams. You'd rather have Purdy. I'm with you on this one. Yes. I don't think he gets enough credit for what you just said. Okay, I am sorry to detour. I'm sorry to detour, Dan.

I wanna know who are some players, mid players? Let me give you some. By the way, when I said for reals earlier, it was a joke. It was an ironic use of for reals. Sure, sure, sure, sure. Okay, what the Dileo people here. But. Let me give you some mid players.

Yeah, there were some mid players in your lineups. Go ahead, go ahead. Last month, here are some mid round drafted players is what we're going to go with because we don't want to call mid who have been performing really well. You tell me your confidence level in them. Jackson Smith and Jigba wide receiver three over the past month per game. Never. Top 24 receiver. Okay. Jerry, a top 24 receiver.

Okay. Jerry, Judy wide receiver, Jerry, Judy wide receiver eight. How are we buying that? Top 16 rest away from me. No, no, I don't think so. Brutal matchups. People say wow to that button.

And normally it would be a while, but we have Garrett Wilson going into this week as the wide receiver four overall. Wide receiver is a dead position this year in fantasy. I'd still rather have Wilson than Judy. Okay, Johnu and Taysom Hill. He's wider receiver four, right. Taysom Hill tied in one per game over the past month.

Johnu tied in four. For real, baby, for reals. Johnu, no, I like, Johnu to me is closer to tied in 10, I'm thinking, rest of season. He has a couple of really tough matchups and he's got target competition. That's a show matter for tough matchups and he's got target competition. That's a show of matter for Johnna Smith. He's got target competition. It's not a knock on him, but you could so easily see a game where

Tyre Kill just gets 15 targets and Johnna gets four. That is so within the realm of possibility. You'd rather have Taysom? I would. No, not in PBR. You'd rather have Johnna than almost all tight endsPR not in people that John in that almost all tight ends I'm I'm you guys on John who I think that they've completely shifted their offense around what? Where they're at with Tua and his concussions and this new version of this offense as we've seen in previous years Mike and Daniel when he finds something he likes in his offense He runs it back and back and back this offense has run through John who in a lot of ways

he runs it back and back and back. This offense has run through Johnnu in a lot of ways. Jacobi- Only two games though with Johnnu. Like he was good before that, but he wasn't great before that. No, not great. I don't think he's gonna be like- Six, okay, but he scored six points.

He's gonna land to be a tight end. He had six, six, and four targets in the three games before these last two when he went berserk. And that's what I'm expecting. I'm expecting up and down from these Dolphins receivers. Go ahead, Jacob. Jacobi Myers and Jordan Addison, both top 24 receivers. They're both top 15 over the past month.

Addison for sure for me. For sure. Top 24. That's the one that I... I'm less on Jacob. I'm less on Addison, I think. Because Addison benefits from just being in a nice pass first offense with a healthy pass game and so much attention on Justin Jefferson every week that he's going to get one-on one on ones all game every game. Quinton Johnson top 30 receiver.

Yes. Love Quinton Johnson rest of season. So here's the thing. I have a hard time figuring out like who's wide receiver 30 right but like I just said Malik neighbors is wide receiver 33 in his last in since we started or whatever was in his last seven games or since week seven I forget and since week seven or whatever it was in his last seven games or since week seven, I forget, since week seven. I'd rather have neighbors than Quentin Johnson. So I don't know that I don't know that Quentin Johnson, if McConkie's out, that's one thing. If McConkie and Disley, everybody's healthy. I don't think I don't think he is a top 30 receiver.

You taking any of these guys over Josh Downs? No. It's a tough question to ask because he's hurt. Yeah, it's healthy. But Downs to me is like a little bit overrated. He's not a high target guy. He plays like half the snaps, 60% of the snaps. I am taking Myers for sure over Downs, not Quentin Johnston.

And I think I take Downs over, I think I take healthy Josh Downs over Jordan Addison. I think he's basically the widest here with 30 line I have him higher than that but most people have him about 30. Okay I had I did have John Smith on this list I had Jerry Judy on this list and I had Calvin Ridley. Ridley is one that sort of concerns me because he's just so reliant on big plays. Every week he's making these huge plays. Even had one called back, a huge touchdown called back. I don't have any faith in Levin this long term. They're not actually running like a good rhythm

on time passing game. They're just like running random bootlegs and taking shots downfield and running the ball. He's got two matchups. Here's the thing about Ridley. He's got two matchups left against the team that gives up the most big plays in the NFL and that's Jacksonville.

So that's two of his remaining five games. That's huge. The other teams he faces are kind of middle of the pack and big pass plays. So I think he'll have a good finish, but it wouldn't surprise me if there's a game or two in his last five that are pretty bad because it's just the nature of a guy

who's doing almost everything on deep balls. It's hard to trust. All right, let's go to our last one here. It's from the nature of a guy who's doing almost everything on deep balls. It's it's hard. It's hard to trust The alright, let's go to our last one here. It's from Adam plank. Should we avoid certain defenses or is that overblown? This year it feels like it might this might be the year it would be overblown there are years where there are dominant defenses I'm not necessarily sure I see too many dominant defense in the NFL this year Who would be the defense that we avoid? Yeah. So here's some match. Really? So wide receivers against the Eagles.

Now, I think we need to pause on that because one, Darius might be out this week, but two, they are pretty thin up front with their pass rushers. Their pass rush has been incredible. And I don't consider Cup and Nakuwa those types of wide receivers. I consider guys like Terry McLaurin, those outside receivers, they're not doing the things that Cup and Nakua are doing. I think that's a concern against the Eagles,

but I'm not sure, maybe that's down the road if they get a little healthier. A number one, a true number one wide receiver against Patrick Sertan, we have enough evidence at this point. It's horrible. Is that gonna happen to Jamar Chase in week 17? I don't know, but I wish he weren't playing the Broncos.

Some run defenses that are just vicious right now, the Titans run defense. Chiefs run defense. Three touchdowns to running backs for the last two games. But if you don't score against the Chiefs, you're in trouble. And the other thing- No running back has more than 60 yards

against the Chiefs all year. And they faced a bunch of really- No running back has more than 60 yards against the Chiefs all year. And they faced a bunch of really good running backs. Yeah, and they're elite against pass catching running backs too. That's the thing. Like the Ravens run defense is phenomenal. Now I don't know if Rochon Smith's gonna play tonight, but when they're healthy, they're phenomenal,

but they give up a ton of receiving yards. The Broncos run defense, phenomenal run defense, but they give up a lot of receiving yards and running backs. The Chiefs don't. Minnesota's run defense has been pretty good lately. Detroit's run defense, the last three running backs they faced, Joe Mixon, 25 carries, 46 yards.

Travis Etienne, 12 carries, 27 yards. Jonathan Taylor, 11 carries, 35 yards. That's the Lions run defense. Tight ends against San Francisco. That's been a brutal matchup. We don't talk about that, but they've been great against tight ends. Tight ends against the Giants do

And then wide receivers against Chicago, you know, I talked about this on the show yesterday because Jefferson got shut down Pretty much any wide receiver that gets eight or more targets against Chicago has a big game But I believe it's only happened five times. So it's just something to consider here I don't think they're that great against wide receivers, but they just don't see a lot of targets. Anyway, those are some of the matchups that I'll be looking at going forward. Is there any others? Like, I don't know.

Maybe, no, I think we're good there. All right, guys, thank you. Good show today, fellas. Well done. And I am not, are you afraid of the dark? I don't know, but I am definitely afraid of Jamie Eisenberg now. I'll tell you that.

I don't. Evidence is all there. I don't look like Ryan Gosling at all, right? No, is that what the chat's saying? You're getting great comparatives. Somebody said you look like Eminem, Ryan Gosling. Some good stuff. Well, he's always got the hoodie going.

Yeah, like I can see the Eminem thing, but you look less like Ryan Gosling than Dan looks like Jason Alexander. Have a great day. Everybody will talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today with the labor wire. Paramount podcasts.