Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: TEs are Awful, Metcalf is Great, Are the Panthers Legit? (09/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:01:39 I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, everyone, let's talk about tight ends. Wah, wah, wah. How did I not have the sad trombone?

Starting point is 00:02:01 That's the official sound of the tight end position in 2024. That's one of our topics today on Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. It's Adam, Dan, and Jacob here on Beyond the Boxscore. Our four big topics today are the Carolina Panthers are amazing. Every tight end is terrible. DK Metcalf, is he a top five wide receiver? Let's go inside the lab

Starting point is 00:02:27 and talk about DK Metcalf. I'm going to coin that phrase, just so you know. Inside the lab. What do you mean you're going to coin that phrase? Jacob coined that himself a long time ago. It's in the lab. Oh, it's in the lab. Get it right. Under the hood in the lab.

Starting point is 00:02:44 And who are we selling and who are we buying right now in trades? All right, here's a couple of amazing stats for you. Prepare to be amazed. Malik Neighbors has more pass attempts inside the 10-yard line than Dak Prescott. He's beating Dak Prescott one to nothing. Dak, I think, is the only starting quarterback that has not attempted a pass inside the 10. Bo Nix, Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Jaden Daniels, Geno Smith, Malik Willis. They've thrown one green zone pass.

Starting point is 00:03:12 Two of them played tonight. But Dak has not thrown a single green zone pass. And stat number two. Amazing stat number two from our Will Brinson. Andy Dalton became the first quarterback in the entire NFL to throw for 300 yards and three passing touchdowns in the same game this season. Isn't that amazing? It's an amazing state of affairs.

Starting point is 00:03:32 We're at right now with NFL quarterback play. You watched. I did too, but you really broke down the Panthers tape. Give it a tape-o-meter, one through ten. It's a big topic, so I don't want to give too much away, so I'll just do a one through ten. Nine. Oh, nice.

Starting point is 00:03:49 Very Ferris Bueller of you right there. All right, Kansas City 20. What was the Bueller reference? Nine times. Oh, that went over my head. Of course it did. You don't know anything. But I've seen that movie.

Starting point is 00:03:59 I have seen that movie, surprisingly. Schaefer got it. Kansas City 22, Atlanta 17. Chiefs get all the calls. Jacob, what did you think of the game last night? Yeah, classic Chiefs. Thanks, refs. Oh, man.

Starting point is 00:04:17 Yeah, so that was that pass interference. But make a better throw, I say, Kirk Cousins. You don't have to underthrow it so badly. Make a better throw. But, yeah, so we had two bad offensive line. This was the week of offensive line injuries. It was just awful. And then we had two more last night.

Starting point is 00:04:33 Caleb McGarry, the left tackle. Drew Dahlman, the center for the Falcons. They left in the first half. And I think it did hinder them, it seemed. But, all right, give me your take on the Chiefs, Jacob, from this performance. We get 20.4 fantasy points from Mahomes, which means now it extends to now two times in his last 16 games he's scored more than 21 fantasy points. Didn't get there. Carson Steele dominating the touches, 18 touches.

Starting point is 00:05:00 A decent game, just didn't score. Like a Jordan Mason game, but, you know, didn't score. Not quite as many yards. But Rasheed Rice was amazing, and everyone else was bad. So your thoughts, Jacob? So, yeah, and I was just looking into the personnel information to see. It felt to me like the Chiefs used more 11 last night, which is three receivers on the field.

Starting point is 00:05:21 In the first two games, the Chiefs only used 11 personnel 45% percent of the time which is down from what we've seen historically with reed the league average is around 60 65 percent um so they were deviating from that significantly through the first two games they're really uh like operating as like a power run heavy team um they still they used three tight ends more than any team in week three um but didn't use two tight ends quite as much. So we did see Jujurism Schuster was used a lot more this week. That's what you're interested in, right? So yeah, that's interesting to me. And then the other thing that I really noticed change was Xavier Worthy

Starting point is 00:06:00 in the first couple of games was really used as a space creator, just running almost exclusively downfield stuff. His go route rate in week three was only 17%. You might remember that I came on here pretty concerned after week one, because it was 47% in week one after being 42% in the preseason. And it's really hard to draw targets with that kind of a rate. He only ran a go route on 17% of his routes in week three. They designed a lot of short yardage stuff to him. Still, it was only four targets. We saw Rice just completely dominate the volume 39% target share for Rice. I see that as more of a problem for

Starting point is 00:06:37 Kelsey. Kelsey was tied with Rice for the most routes run and still only drew five targets. In the second half you saw them come out and be intentional about trying to get the ball to kelsey on the first drive and he still finished with only five targets because to my eye he's just not getting open very much um whereas rice's looked amazing rice is winning all over the place yeah uh so yeah i think rice is like top five fantasy receiver going forward uh I'll get into him a little bit more in the advanced stats section. So overall, encouraged by what we saw for Worthy.

Starting point is 00:07:09 Pretty worried about Travis Kelsey. We'll see if he gets things turned around. And then also I thought the usage for Carson Steele was really encouraging. 17 rushes, 64% of the snaps, 52% of the dropbacks. I don't think receiving is going to be a big part of his game, but he played a lot. And he also got six opportunities in the red zone. So with that kind of role,

Starting point is 00:07:29 I think you can expect a lot more than eight PPR points most weeks. Kelsey, you know, watched all the routes, double was getting double teamed a lot, which I think is going to happen when you work over the middle of the field. I remember talking to Amon Ross St. Brown, asking him, you know, he'd been playing kind of the evolution of his career and how he had transitioned from just being mostly in the slot to playing more out wide, but still a lot in the slot. And he said, it's, you know, you know, you get double teamed a lot

Starting point is 00:07:55 when you're in the slot. Um, and it's easier to see the double team when you're lined up out wide, but, uh, anyway, you know, that's happening. But I went back. I actually watched some film of him from a tape of him from three years ago. Just for comparison. I'm not great at this stuff. I would say that he probably looked fast, a little faster back then. He's doing nothing after the catch. 2.6 yards after the catch per reception. He has hardly any catches.

Starting point is 00:08:22 So it's a very small sample size. And he had one big play where he did a lot after the catch per reception. He has hardly any catches. So it's a very small sample size. And he had one big play where he did a lot after the catch two, you know, two games ago, week two, that got called back on a penalty. So that doesn't count, but usually he's at five-ish yak per catch 2.6 right now. So just awful. Uh, it's actually usually more like five, five and a half or six yards, but, um, I don't really know what to say. I would actually buy low on him because like it can't get any worse. And there are no good tight ends available. It's not like you're going to be streaming someone over Travis Kelsey. So it's just a stupid position right now where everyone's stupid and stinks. So I still take Kelsey. I don't think he's completely done yet. He just,

Starting point is 00:09:02 he needs more targets. He's going to get a higher target share than this. This is ridiculous. So, you know, if he can just get like seven or eight targets, I still, I think he can get you double digit PPR fantasy points, maybe average around 10 per game as a floor. If you can just start getting a normal target share. So from a schematic standpoint, I'm sorry, we can talk about the skill and the speed and all that. I don't even care. I just need some more targets for him because I've lowered my expectations big time. If he can just get a 20% target share, I think he can be a must start tight end in this environment. Sorry, Dan, go ahead. No, I just, I just, what I worry about is that from a schematic standpoint, the chiefs right now don't have any receiver who wins on the boundary

Starting point is 00:09:44 really on a consistent basis. So until they have any receiver who wins on the boundary really on a consistent basis. So until they have a receiver who wins on the boundary on a consistent basis, I don't see teams changing how they're defending the chiefs, which is inside out and taking away Travis Kelsey because the chiefs have found, and I don't see the chiefs changing too much of what they're doing. Cause they they're like, all right, take away Kelsey. We're just going to give that role to Rishi rice and it's fine. We still have that over the middle role. So I'm concerned. I'm also just concerned. I've watched a lot of chiefs on primetime.

Starting point is 00:10:08 This is a weird take, but I just see it too often. Look at the numbers from a homes to 17, two TDs. They have these long drives that take a lot of time. And Andy Reed is just so unaggressive in spots like fourth and two with my homes as your quarterback, bring the field goal unit on red zone, fourth and one, bring the field goal unit on. He's so accepting of these field goals after these long drives. I just get the feeling this offense isn't what I was hoping it was going to be, which was kind of the five K and 40 touchdown type offense. And I've already kind of shifted my, my thoughts on that because I just don't think they're aggressive enough.

Starting point is 00:10:43 Um, as a, from a, like a play calling coaching standpoint. Yeah. Only Jaden Daniels averages fewer area yards per pass attempt than Mahomes. And this is, I think three years in a row where Mahomes is toward the bottom. He just doesn't throw the ball downfield that much. And when he did, he threw an interception in the end zone.

Starting point is 00:10:58 Uh, let's go to the Falcons here. Uh, Jacob, you want to kick it off with the Falcons? I would just say that, yeah, this is the worst I've seen Mahomes look when he seems to be here. Jacob, you want to kick it off with the Falcons? I would just say that, yeah, this is the worst I've seen Mahomes

Starting point is 00:11:05 look when he seems to be healthy. My brother and I have this running joke where we act like Mahomes is terrible and we list off quarterbacks we would rather have than him this season, just because that's where we're at as Chiefs fans are extremely spoiled. And we settled on Malik Willis is where we're at. Playing better

Starting point is 00:11:22 than Patrick Mahomes right now. The Falcons, yeah, they're using more play action. We saw that in back-to-back games now after that weird week one where they didn't use any play action. They're under center a lot more as well. That's exciting. They're using pre-snap motion at the fifth highest rate of any team. So everything, I think, from an infrastructure standpoint that we could hope for is there.

Starting point is 00:11:44 They're playing with a pace they have one of the highest average remaining um seconds on the play clock at the time of snap only the Dallas Cowboys are higher than the Falcons and I thought everything we saw was pretty encouraging I wish we could get a little more space for Bijan to run um but other than that you know Drake London leading the team in targets Darnam Mooney used the motion a lot and looking really good um electric after the catch leading the team in targets. Darnold Mooney used the motion a lot and looking really good. Electric after the catch with the ball in his hands. And even Kyle Pitts making plays down the field was very close. Making play down the field.

Starting point is 00:12:13 Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's the number six tight end in half PPR right now. Number eight in full PPR. Yeah. But I'm not that encouraged by Kyle Pitts. He's like, he's got, okay, through three games, he has 12 targets. He just caught a touchdown on a wide open, good play in week one by Cousins. I don't know. I feel like my big takeaway is I feel like Mooney is the number two target

Starting point is 00:12:40 getter on this team that I thought would be Kyle Pitts. Mooney's playing a bigger role. You know, like I'd take Kelsey over. Right now, Kelsey is tight end 20. Pitts is tight end 8. I'd take Kelsey over Pitts. Me too. My big takeaway from this offense is just

Starting point is 00:12:55 Steve Spagnuolo. He did an unbelievable job taking away the outside zone. This guy just figures out game plans to stop the offenses over and over and over again. And it really threw off everything Atlanta wanted to do. I'm not putting the, I'm not sounding the alarm just yet.

Starting point is 00:13:10 Cause Atlanta was able to run that outside zone based scheme in the first two weeks. And they really dominated the Eagles using it. But you know, we have an injury to McGarry. We have an injury to their center. If those injuries start to pile up. And I think Chris Collinsworth did a great job breaking it down.

Starting point is 00:13:23 But when you're running that style, that outside zone run scheme, the continuity is so much more important. You can't afford these injuries on the offensive line. And we saw that last night. And I think Kirk Cousins is at the point where, and he's always been this quarterback, even with Minnesota, where he's really better under center, better off the play action, better letting the run game or not letting the run game set up, but having an equal run pass share where you can kind of run the, like the McVay style where it's like the defense can't guess pass or run. Um, so I'm a little concerned with the offensive line injuries. I'm not going to lie, but I think the

Starting point is 00:13:52 big takeaway also is just Darnell Mooney is such a big part of this passing game and looks really fricking good out there. Like his ability to separate it's impressive. He looked like this at times with the bears. I know we did some film on review on him, Jacob, like I'm one of the beyond the box scores, maybe two years ago, but this is an even better fit for him considering he's not getting much attention, uh,

Starting point is 00:14:11 with pits and with, uh, with Robinson and with London out there. I love the call out on specs. Cause he really has like ascended to Belichick levels of just like your top playmaker is not going to do anything with this game. Um, and it was like perfectly encapsulated in that one play where they didn't

Starting point is 00:14:26 even cover Darnell or Drake London. They just let him walk right in the end zone for a while. I'm touching because two people were worried about B. Sean. Yeah. I was surprised they didn't gas that more. The Falcons, they had,

Starting point is 00:14:38 that was a great play call and that's what they should like. The chiefs are driving down on all their around the line of scrimmage screen passes. And I would think they would do a double move at one point again in the game little pump fake go but I didn't see that again I thought that was a mistake from the Falcons do you guys consider Drake London a must start after two good weeks in a row I do yes yeah all right uh and Dan there's a person in our chat with the name the wet bandit do you know that reference i do not know that reference i've been trying to avoid the chat lately it's been very mean they are very mean today oh my gosh

Starting point is 00:15:10 very mean specifically to me but all people i mean look there's nice people too but the chat has been rough so i've been trying to avoid it but wet bandit i'm not sure oh they've been they've been very mean wet you don't know the wet bandits huh how huh? How about you, Jacob? Wet Bandits? No clue. What is it? It's Home Alone. This isn't some obscure reference. It's Home Alone. It's the Stone Temple Pilots of kids' movies.

Starting point is 00:15:34 All right, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code FANTASY, and you're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So here's what you do. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code FANTASY. Deposit at least $10. Place your first wager on any game. You're going to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code FANTASY when you sign up. We'll be right back with news and notes, advanced stats,

Starting point is 00:16:03 film review, big topics, and more on FFT. we'll be right back with news and notes, advanced stats, film review, big topics, and more on FFT. We'll be right back. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe.

Starting point is 00:16:22 Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. It's kind of embarrassing, Jacob, we didn't get a Home Alone reference. I mean, but you know what? I don't think you have to just do whatever is popular. Like one of our favorite shows I know we share, Jacob, is I Think You Should Leave. I don't know why I almost got that wrong.

Starting point is 00:16:52 And I feel like that is not a popular show. I do think you should leave right now after this Home Alone thing, but. I've seen Home Alone, by the way, but I was young. Yeah. I think you should leave. Someone asked Jacob what his favorite show is. What's your

Starting point is 00:17:05 answer is it i'll go with i'll go with i think you should leave that's such an open-ended question it's it would take me forever it'd be painstaking to try to narrow it down like what genre yeah we'll go that i agree with that no it's tough i think you should leave though is i is has gotten a little overrated you know basically season two is amazing the other two seasons aren't really that good i don't think it's that i think it's more so like individual skits from each season are great and so it's a hit or miss show some skits don't make me laugh at all and i don't like them at all but then within each season there's one that always crushes i think and more than one oh yeah when it's on it's in it's amazing it's almost like because it's been so successful and become such a big meme, like it's not held up to fair standards.

Starting point is 00:17:46 If you think about it really compared to sketch comedy, I feel like for me, the skit hit rate is normally like 15% or something for sketch comedy in general. And with, I think you should leave, it's probably like 40 or 50, 50,

Starting point is 00:17:57 something like that. Like, yeah, good point. Sketch comedy is hard, hard to hit that rate. I mean, I referenced the Dylan's burgers get so much,

Starting point is 00:18:03 so much. Give me that. It's a very quotable show. All right. News and notes. Excuse me. Adam's sick, but Sam Darnold says he's fine.

Starting point is 00:18:13 He got a little beat up in the game. Justin Herbert re-aggravated the high ankle sprain. We'll see if he can play against the chiefs. They have a buy in week five. Skylar Thompson got a rib injury. Running back news. Clyde Edwards. Oh, this was overheard on the broadcast. Skyler Thompson got a rib injury. Running back news. Clyde Edwards-Ziller. Oh, this was overheard on the broadcast. Clyde Edwards-Ziller

Starting point is 00:18:30 could be back in week five. They're optimistic about that. Wide receiver. DJ Moore got dinged up late. I don't think it's serious, but it was very close to the end of the game. Devontae Smith took that big hit, so hopefully he can get back. Justin Jefferson. X-rays were negative

Starting point is 00:18:46 on his finger. He jammed his finger. Adam Thielen left with an injury. Van Jefferson left with an eye injury. Calvin Austin ended up having a big game. Darius Slayton left, but he came back, and he's fine. Tight end news, this was the big position, other than offensive line. Sam Laporta,

Starting point is 00:19:02 Trey McBride, they both left. Laporta with an ankle injury. McBride checked for a concussion and Brock Bowers was evaluated for a concussion, but he was able to turn to the game. Tucker Kraft left for the Packers. And then the big offensive line injuries. Sorry, this is repetitive from yesterday, but Jets right tackle Morgan Moses, Pittsburgh right tackle Troy Fautano, Seattle right tackle their second string guy, George Fant, who is starting. All three of those guys are going to miss some time.

Starting point is 00:19:33 I haven't seen updates on really anyone. Rashawn Slater for the Chargers. Lane Johnson has a concussion for the Eagles. Eric McCoy, he left with a groin injury like really early, so that could be a bad one. Teron Armstead for the Dolphins, their left tackle. The two Falcons guys. Trent Williams came back.

Starting point is 00:19:52 He played almost the whole game. And then three Browns offensive linemen got hurt. They were sacked eight times. 39 pressures in one game. They were credited with a gap hour. I thought it was 36. 36, sorry, 36 and eight sacks. I read your co-host,

Starting point is 00:20:08 Big Blue Banter co-host tweet. Most pressures that the Giants have had since PFF started tracking it, I think he said so. Unbelievable. Yeah, so that's how bad it was for Deshaun Watson and the Browns. And, you know, it could get even worse on the other side of the ball.

Starting point is 00:20:21 Miles Garrett, he left a couple of times in that game and he may have, he came into the game with foot issues. He may have re-aggravated it. That's a guy that wouldn't shock me if he missed some time, Miles Garrett. That's huge. Joey Bosa also left with an injury for the Chargers. San Francisco defensive tackle, Javon Hargrave, left with a biceps injury.

Starting point is 00:20:42 They're hoping that it's not serious. Then for the Cowboys, they could be getting the Giants with a depleted secondary as Giants lost two defensive backs on Sunday. And this, they have a Thursday game against the Cowboys, plus a very important linebacker, Mike McFadden. So the Giants defense, not that it's so good anyway, but could be down three important players. Okay. Sean Watson needs to be benched. That's my last take on that from watching the tape this morning. My God, he is missing routine throws from some from clean pockets.

Starting point is 00:21:13 The ball placement is unbelievably bad. His clock is so sped up. He's rattled. I don't know exactly what's going to happen there because of the money they've paid him. But my God god pick up jamis winston in your super flex leagues through 30 touchdowns one season with 30 interceptions those don't hurt you that much in fantasy get him on your roster get him on your bench he's the best

Starting point is 00:21:34 stash in super flex right now yeah it's it's weird i mean how did this guy get so bad he should be i don't know it's crazy right now right he's still young. It's the weirdest thing in sports. Did you say karma, Jacob? That's what Jacob said. Jacob, tell us about the show that I named In the Lab. What? You named it. Tell us about the show on Tuesday night.

Starting point is 00:22:03 I still don't know what you're talking about, dog. I'm sorry. Wait, what's your show on Tuesday night. I still don't know what you're talking about, Doug. I'm sorry. Wait, what's your show? What's your show on Tuesday night? Are you talking about our Thursday podcast that Dan and I do? Thursday. Thursday. My bad.

Starting point is 00:22:12 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What's the show called? Every Thursday, Dan and I have a guest on. We just have been calling it Beyond the Boxcore. Every Friday, there is an FFT newsletter post called In the Lab. In the Lab. Okay the Lab, okay.

Starting point is 00:22:25 I thought you were calling. Weren't you guys going to call the show that at one point? Maybe. I don't know. We threw out a number of ideas. It's a work in progress. But every Friday, I respond to FFT newsletter readers and subscribers. There's a form where they can go tell me who they want to learn about,

Starting point is 00:22:42 what they want to learn about, and then I just go write about each player in detail in the lab. It's pretty fun. But your podcast, that's what I like. Our podcast is every Thursday, and it's been a lot of fun. It's only on YouTube right now. We've had really good guests on. Adam Levitan of Establish the Run is coming on this week.

Starting point is 00:22:58 I'm super, super excited for that. So this is completely different than what it was originally going to be, which was Tuesday, right? Yeah, we had to move it because of some scheduling things with FFT. Okay, yeah, but I did get this from Poker Poppy, who's been crushing me. Adam is just stupid. He's been mean to me all day. How much mean stuff going on in the chat?

Starting point is 00:23:16 Somebody there's just like, Dan, stop smirking. See, this is why I don't look at the chat. I look at the private chat in StreamYard. I just love that Dan's having a good time and they're like stop that you're not allowed to have a good time today yeah ragu sharma killing me and i'm on like two hours of sleep i woke up so early and to watch the date dan also got called out for wearing the same shirt that he wore yesterday's podcast which now makes a call out for both of you guys within the first month. I have yet to get one,

Starting point is 00:23:45 but both of you've got the same color, but wearing the same shirt on the podcast. Back to me. Did see that chat. I didn't want you to say it on air. I showered before the podcast last night, took it off, went to sleep in a no shirt.

Starting point is 00:23:57 I don't sleep in a shirt, put it back on. In my opinion, if you wear a shirt for an hour after a shower, you take it off, you go to sleep without it. You put it back on the next day, you only wore it for an hour post-shower. I just don't think it needs to be put in the laundry just yet. I agree with that.

Starting point is 00:24:14 It's post-shower. Shout out to the Boxcore Crew 0 for 3 on showering today. No, I showered last night. I'm not showering every second of every day. We're out here grinding. There's too much film to be on. Exactly. What am I supposed to do?

Starting point is 00:24:24 I was watching tape all night, like all morning. I showered on Saturday, so I really did hit the showers. All right. Some advanced stats and some other stuff. I'll just go through

Starting point is 00:24:33 some snap counts and things like that. I can't look at the chat right now. I'm too scared. And then I'll turn it over to Jacob. Jerome Ford played 79% of snaps. He ran eight routes on third down. That was among the running back leaders,

Starting point is 00:24:43 so Jerome Ford dominated that role. I don't know what week two was all about. Cole Komet, his snap shares have been 48%, 77% and 81% in three games. So I don't know if it's Keenan Allen related. Keenan Allen missed the last two games and we saw a big bump in Cole Komet's snap share. He's a top five tight end, by the way, for the season

Starting point is 00:25:02 because he had a huge game. But they haven't changed their personnel. they haven't changed their formations that much in terms of like gerald everest he's just yeah there's yeah the splits just going in favor of commit okay that's what i figured a little roma dunzey while we're at it no not yet roshan johnson led all running backs in third down routes um he had nine deandre swift also had five routes on third down uh so roshan johnson had a big role and then yeah dave mentioned this yesterday dallas running back hunter lipkey ran seven routes on third down compared to one each for zeke and dowdle that's just that stinks for fantasy

Starting point is 00:25:37 uh 10 running backs have 50 or more carries eight of them have scored at least two rushing touchdowns two of them have not scored yet. They are Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris. Wow. DeAndre Hopkins, big game for him, and he still only played 46% of the snaps. He played a lot of snaps in the first half, not as many in the second half, but

Starting point is 00:25:58 I don't know when he'll get to a normal snap share, but it just hasn't happened yet. And then this one, people were calling this out on Twitter, and I don't blame them. Mark Andrews played a third of the snaps. He ran four total routes, I think I saw. Four.

Starting point is 00:26:13 Four routes. But how is that even a part of your game plan? Because they threw 15 passes for one, which was the few. Run all 15 routes on all 15 passes. This is Mark Andrews we're talking about. Yeah, so it was bad, but a little bit of context. Zay Flowers led everyone other than the quarterback and the line with a 67% snap share.

Starting point is 00:26:31 He had been at 89% each of the previous two games. So their personnel, their game plan was just different in this game. They just ran the heck out of the ball. Lamar Jackson produced 47 air yards this week. Oh, my God. I think league neighbors produced that alone in like one snap.

Starting point is 00:26:51 Yeah, but seriously, though. Hey, Dan is right. You know, 33% snap share for Andrews. Oof. I don't know, man. People are talking about dropping him. I mean, I wouldn't do that, but. For who?

Starting point is 00:27:02 For Kamek? Yeah, for who? Right, exactly. For who? Yeah, there's just no one out there. who, for commit or who, right. Exactly. For who? Yeah. There's no one out there. You're, you're stuck. You're stuck at tight end.

Starting point is 00:27:10 Yeah. All right. It's a, you want to talk, you can talk about it doomsday and then we can one quick thing about that though. And then we'll move to doomsday. I'll promise. This will be quick. Think about it like this from a game theory standpoint.

Starting point is 00:27:20 You're not actually that stuck at tight end. If no one's producing at tight end, you're not losing much by getting these guys in your lineups that isn't producing or that isn't scoring a lot of points. Like there's no difference maker right now. Tight end position. That was the whole reason to draft Travis Kelsey two, three years ago, where we drafted him early back end round one, because he was out producing the position by such a large margin right now, you don't have that.

Starting point is 00:27:40 And there's no middle ground either at the tight end position. So you're not losing much at this point. So it's not a panic. For me, it's not a panic yet. Okay. By the way, when you realize that the guy who's been trolling you just said, Lamar Jackson's not a good quarterback, to be honest, puts things in perspective. Terrible take.

Starting point is 00:27:58 Now I'm trolling you. Now I'm trolling you, Raghu. Worst take of the day. Lamar Jackson is a great player, a great quarterback, and you'd be lucky if your team had him. Wow. Wow. Adam coming in hot.

Starting point is 00:28:09 He is. I mean, come on. Is he the best passer in the world? No. But they're in first place every single year when he's healthy. Lamar Jackson is awesome. Most teams would be thrilled to have Lamar Jackson. Okay, what do we got from the advanced stats?

Starting point is 00:28:22 Jacob Gibbs. Yeah, Roman Dunza, Dan wanted to talk about him. Um, it was a massive showing for him in week three. He's run basically every route the past two weeks into week three, he had, uh, over 200 air yards, over 100 receiving yards, which was just the 10th time that's happened from a receiver age 23 or younger since 2010. Um, the list that people have done it is really fun it's just like a very specific type of receiver it's odell beckham did it twice

Starting point is 00:28:49 sammy walkins mike evans did it twice alan robinson josh gordon will fuller uh denarius moore oakland raider remember that name oh yeah and then roma dunzey so the uh the volume was crazy in chicago they threw a ton and there there was a ton of air yards produced overall, but still 245 air yards for Odunze just goes to show how high his ceiling is. And also the matchup was perfect to facilitate this kind of thing for Odunze. It's this Gus Bradley super cover three heavy single high safety coverage, so you're going to see a lot of targets to the downfield threat, the number one receiver.

Starting point is 00:29:26 Keep on going. I didn't know if Dan wanted to talk about it or do they had something specific, but I can keep going. Yeah. Keep going. Okay. Malik neighbors. I know Dan wants to talk about that.

Starting point is 00:29:36 Malik neighbors is just doing it all. Obviously we see the acrobatic catches and just, you know, massing people and everything else. What I've been most impressed with is the fact that he's beating press coverage and also just winning from the perimeter. Some of his best, you know, reps versus press coverage happened in this slot, but he's out at the perimeter like 80% of the time. And I expect it to be about like a 50-50 slot to perimeter in his rookie season

Starting point is 00:30:05 and a lot of manufacturer touches and stuff. But that hasn't been the case. He's just going on winning big boy stuff all over the place. And his stats versus press coverage are just unbelievable. He has a 23% first down per route run rate when facing press coverage. The league averages 8% at the wide receiver position. The next highest rate belongs to Deontay Johnson at 16%. Then Marvin Harrison at 14%. There's only seven players above

Starting point is 00:30:31 10%. He's at 23%. Um, yeah, he's just completely dominating, almost averaging a full fantasy point for route run. Yay. Press coverage player. So cool. All right. Don't screw it up, Giants. The only thing I would add to that is, one, a lot of these have been first reads, and Daniel Jones is a first read quarterback, so that really works well. And two, if you look at his scouting profile, and I watch so much of his tape at LSU, there were just two question marks about him. Everything else was supposedly elite. The first question mark was, can he beat Pressman at the NFL level? Because in LSU's system with Brian Kelly, he really wasn't asked to do it a lot. And Jacob just went over and you could check his Twitter page, Jacob's Twitter page. There's even more stats on this, how much he's dominated press man. And the second one, do you know what the second question mark was? And it's only because he didn't get a chance to do it a lot at LSU because there were a lot of open space. It was, can he win at the catch point? Is he a good player at the catch point? Right? Look how dominant he's looked at the catch point. Those two catches he made the one where he rips the interception away. And then the red zone touchdown where he's like, yes, he's totally

Starting point is 00:31:32 flipped backwards. Like those are some of the best plays on, on like the best plays at the catch point I've seen all season by any receiver. Maybe I'm being hyperbolic because I'm a giants podcaster, but man, I think right now he's producing and playing like one of the best receivers in the NFL. And I do not think that's an exaggeration. No, it's not. I mean, he he's earned it. And you know, it was one thing to do it against Washington. It was another thing to do it against Cleveland. Right. So good for him. And then, you know, the Giants are always bad against the Cowboy. I'm just interested to see if they can do anything right. The Cowboys absolutely own them. Can they can they i mean let's be real here this is another storyline giants pass protection is possibly good

Starting point is 00:32:12 so definitely at this point good it's a rare thing so can what does that mean the cowboys come in and usually humiliate the giants can they can malik neighbors have another good game? Can Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones probably, I don't know, because week one was so bad, but he's had, the last two weeks, he's been better than Mahomes

Starting point is 00:32:30 for fantasy. At least according to EPA, which I think is a bit of a, I don't want to call it fake sharp stat, but I think a little exact, and I just don't love it. I think it's,

Starting point is 00:32:40 it's too much dependent on the, it, sorry, let me try to clarify this. It allows the supporting cast to play too big of a role – sorry, let me try to clarify this. It allows the supporting cast to play too big of a role, quarterback EPA. But according to EPA, Daniel Jones is the third-best quarterback in the NFL. He's the third-best EPA.

Starting point is 00:32:55 He didn't even play that well yesterday. He was so bad in the second half. But in the last two games, Daniel Jones has scored more than 22 fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues each game. Patrick Mahomes has done that twice in his last 16 games, more than 21 points twice in his last 16 games. Again, I don't know how much is my home's fault. I'm a little off you and Jacob. I just think Reed is crazy, crazy conservative.

Starting point is 00:33:16 You have Patrick Mahomes on fourth and two, and you're bringing out Butker after a bad third and one call, you're in the red zone and you just bring out Bucker for these like 16 yard field goals. It's just, I just, I can't stand stand watching it every time it makes me mad i'm like if i had mahomes i would never kick field goals andy reed's doing him no favors from a fantasy perspective but yeah no he's one of the best coaches of all time i shouldn't be coming down on andy reed it works but at mahomes is not playing well man the first like 10 throws he made like every single one of them i was like what the hell like i it's been like that for a while. Um, it's just been a weird year.

Starting point is 00:33:48 They may not even win the super bowl this year. It's just funny. I guess Andy read this and they've won two straight. So they don't know. I want to give him crops. It's a hall of fame props, hall of fame coach. I just, he, and he's, he's always been conservative in those spots. All right. So I'm sorry, Jacob, uh, let's it rolling. We've got a lot of rookies to talk about here. The first one is not exciting, and then everyone after that will be. So, Ed and I, Mitchell only played 11% of the snaps. Josh Downs returned, tied for the team lead in targets.

Starting point is 00:34:16 And, yeah, it was basically Alec Pierce and Downs and Pittman out there. Not really surprised because Pierce has played really, really well, and he came down with another big catch in this game. Um, but yeah, that's, that's tough. I think, are you guys fine with dropping Mitchell? Oh yeah. Oh hell yeah. I mean, I wouldn't even adding him.

Starting point is 00:34:31 You got the worst, the worst quarterback in football. That's an exaggeration. People were really excited about him after the first week, you know, I had those two deep balls that he could have connected on. Um, but yeah, I feel like his confidence has really dropped since then. And there's been a lot of inconsistency with his route running. I think you can move on. On the good side of things, Marvin Harrison Jr., 32% target share.

Starting point is 00:34:51 That's the second straight game above 30%. And this one was actually backed by usage that I think can stick. He was used a lot more on slants, crossers, running a lot fewer go routes. The first two games, he was used really deep down the field, and we're seeing a little bit more nuance added to his route tree, and especially if Trayvon Bryant's going to miss time, then that's going to be important that he is running some of those shorter routes. So he looks like

Starting point is 00:35:14 he's locked in as a top 12 fantasy receiver. Neighbors or Marvin Harrison Jr. rest season? You guys taking Neighbors? I'm taking Neighbors. Harrison. I think it's totally fair to take neighbors um yeah that's tough savior worthy wait a second question here from the chat would you trade neighbors for lamb straight up in in no less than a second i would take lamb over neighbors yeah

Starting point is 00:35:35 yeah same okay uh savior worthy on the same note uh his go route rate is down we talked about that and so that's that's really exciting it almost as many screen routes as goes um was generally used way more around the line of scrimmage so i still want to see him use more on the crossers though jacob like that's the thing that's bothering me because i know he can be so effective there and i did not see that well he stopped his route on that there was one route where he screwed up and that probably will take him off the field for those but he only played 50 of the snaps i do want to bring that up uh for worthy i i'd like to stash him there's no way i'm starting him you don't even have to ask your xavier worthy questions we need to see more but he'll get one carry or so a game and he might get you a fantasy point there might even take to the house you never know he's obviously

Starting point is 00:36:18 so talented and there's a there's a hole there's a void to fill for the chiefs you have to be patient with rookie receivers stash don't start xavier. Lad McConkie. And this might be more of a dynasty note. Um, cause I don't, I just don't know how much the receiver is going to matter in LA, but what we've seen from a conch in a per route basis is really impressive. And he's fit. He's playing. Uh, it's not like this is a small sample size. Um, well it is because of the run heaviness of the offense. Um, but it's not like he's, you know, putting up her out data on it is because of the run heaviness of the offense. But it's not like he's putting up per route data on only 50% of the routes. He's tied with Quinn Johnson in routes run this week. And still, if you look at all his per route data, he really, really jumps off the page.

Starting point is 00:36:54 So first downs per route run is probably your best per route metric to look at. At this point in the season, it becomes sticky relatively quickly. And his rate is 11.9 that's the same as brock bowers it's just below malik neighbors at 12.5 and that is a almost top 10 rate if you look at targets per route run that's in the top 10 as well um i just think he looks incredible sorry just some perspective i just don't know how much it matters with the chargers you got justin herbert with a high ankle sprain i don't even know if he's going to play this week. You've got the Chiefs matchup, which is tough. And then you've got a bye.

Starting point is 00:37:29 So if I need the roster spot, I'm fine dropping McConkie. He's just not doing enough. They just run the ball too much. I'm almost worried that I drafted McConkie in the Dynasty League. And you know sometimes you get those situations where the offensive coordinator holds back the player for so long. And it's not that he's a bad offensive coordinator. He's just bad for passing games. So I don't know, like the poor out that it might be good, but the targets just, I don't think they're going to be there. Quick aside, because I can't

Starting point is 00:37:58 help myself. I traded Adam that picky draft the McConkie for Stefan digs. And I am currently three and oh, the most points in that dynasty league. That, and I am currently 3-0 with the most points in that Dynasty League. And I'm 0-3 with the second fewest points, and everything is working out perfectly because I've got neighbors and Odunze and McConkie, and I got Quinton Johnston. I am team tank, and I'm loving it. All right, Jacob, sorry, keep going.

Starting point is 00:38:20 No, I just do think it's really important to know for Dynasty, potentially for this season. So this is just that this season, like very much in the now note is that Tutu Atwell was used in pre-snap motion a ton. 12 of his 24 routes he was used in pre-snap motion. Four of his five targets came as a pre-snap motion guy. And it was if I tweeted, if you want to search and find it on my Twitter account, it's a lot of this stuff that we saw last year. We're doing the cheap motion and getting him in a bunch package and then he's running and rubbing off that and getting downfield stuff that's pretty open and nobody is it's just so

Starting point is 00:38:51 hard to cover when he's almost you know he's at 70 80 speed right away at the snap um so i think he's somebody if i had to guess any of the rams receivers to be relevant it's going to be him he was second on the team in routes run behind only to Marcus Robinson. I wanted to bring up this PPR points per route run note. So this is from the beginning of last season until now. Jayden Reed is top 10 in PPR points per route run. His route participation rate is up pretty significantly this year, but I think it's flown under the radar a little bit because they're hardly throwing the ball at all.

Starting point is 00:39:24 He's still not playing in two receiver sets. But when Love comes back, I think they're going to really air things out. That's what it looked like in week one. They used the receivers a lot. And Reed is just continuing to look elite in the same way that he did last year. It's like the same PPR points per route run as Puka Nakua, the same PPR points per route run as Mike Evans. So like that, I think he's probably one of the best by-laws in fantasy, and I'm curious what you guys think about him.

Starting point is 00:39:49 I think you're right. He is so good, and I think I'd have to say I'd take him over Christian Watson. I was pretty adamant I'd take Watson over Reid in drafts, but he's phenomenal, and they'll give him the ball in the run game sometimes. Right. This is just receiving points per out run. Doesn't even take into account that he gets rushing points. I think it's a great call.

Starting point is 00:40:10 You know, we might get Love back next week, hopefully. It's a really good buy low. We saw in week one what the upside was. But I will say this, Jacob, just from following your content today, I am very nervous about Christian Watson. Duntavian Wicks is starting to eat into his snap share. That's scaring me. Yeah, for sure. It's clearly Reid over Watson because Reid's playing more than Watson.

Starting point is 00:40:30 Even Dobbs is coming off the field a little bit. They're rotating those three Dobbs, Watson, and Wicks, and then Reid is basically just like the slot guy. He doesn't really come off the field unless it's a two-receiver set play. But yeah, same PPR points per outrun as A.J. Brown since the start of 2023.

Starting point is 00:40:45 Pretty impressive stuff. Ahead of all those guys i just named number two overall in ppr points per outrun since the beginning of last year nico collins number three rushy rice yeah i think he's like clearly clearly i was so nervous last night when he went down for a second and then came back in i was like all of my my calls this offseason have been injured in the first two weeks. But he's basically what Kelsey was in that offense now, right? Essentially, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon. With more downfield stuff, too. They've been using it on the field a little bit more.

Starting point is 00:41:17 The last thing we're going to talk about is Brock Purdy in the 49ers. Just so, so impressed with what we saw from Purdy yesterday. No Debo Samuel, no George Kittle, no Christian McCaffrey. Only 22% of the passing yards came after the catch that was a career low he had four dropped passes but still like a pretty dang productive game for purdy true media said zero off target throws there were some i mean like that one that uh that juan jennings rescued him on like that could have been an interception there were some that might have been off target but still like to even be close to zero percent with an average depth of

Starting point is 00:41:46 target of 11 yards and a lot of dropbacks is really impressive he was pressured 18 times and only got sacked once um and he finished the game with a 0.35 epa per dropback rate which is the eighth highest of his career and i do think that it's really important to bring that up because expected points added like dan was saying is it's really a team level stat. Um, it's affected a ton by the pass catchers that you have there. And so, I mean, maybe John Jennings is truly just a hall of famer and we didn't realize it. Um, but like outside of that, he was not getting much help in this game and

Starting point is 00:42:18 still, it was one of the best games of his career. So I'm just the pocket navigation, the downfield throwing, everything was there. We we've got to stop with the Brock Purdy hate. It's so ridiculous. No, you're right. Is it the things that he does? Well, aren't flashy and they don't really there. I'll say they're more beyond the box score type things. Let's use that term. So they don't always in the lab, let's say, cause they don't always get picked up by everyone. And it's exactly what you said. It pocket navigation it's understanding the slide what when to slide when to reset

Starting point is 00:42:47 it's the processing it's the anticipatory throwing it's all the things that kind of made drew breeze and he's not anywhere near drew breeze but those types of quarterbacks a couple of notes real quick it's a low ankle sprain for sam laporta which is good news and todd bowles said that bucky irving has earned more snaps going forward. It's time, baby. He's much better than Rashad. I mean, let's be honest with the situation as a runner. As a rusher, right.

Starting point is 00:43:12 Rashad White's still going to own passing downs, I would think, because he is good at that. He's very good at that. I just want to say I looked at the snaps. Calvin Ridley was mostly shadowed by Jair Alexander. I did mistakenly say yesterday that he was covering Ridley when he had the pick six, who's actually covering Hopkins. And I don't think Ridley was on the field for that play, but Hopkins and Ridley, if you watch

Starting point is 00:43:33 the tape, because Ridley's hair is so long now, like it is a little hard to tell them apart. And when they both have a zero, one's zero, one's 10. So like all 22 could be kind of far away it's hard to tell them apart but you had ridley getting shadowed by jair alexander for the most part and as this was a guy who couldn't beat good cornerbacks last year so i'm not surprised he had a terrible game i just didn't really think that was going to happen mike evans was more or less shouted by patrick sirtan not in the slot typically he had played 13 snaps in the slot and i'll say the bucks they really really miss right tackle Luke get a key pressure has been a little bit much on, uh, on Baker the last couple of weeks. We got to take a break for big topics. When we come back, starting with the Carolina Panthers and we'll be right back on FFT. All right. Welcome back guys.

Starting point is 00:44:18 We're going to have to go a little bit faster than usual. I'm going to say four minutes per topic here. And Dan, I'm going to let you start with the Carolina Panthers are four big topics. Jordan's, uh, Jordan from Twitter wants to know what we think and what this means also for Jonathan Brooks going forward. But what are your thoughts? Yeah. So real quick, I told you about last year when Dalton got his one spot starting through for 363 and was making, you know, stick throws, whole shots, doing all the stuff that you see only the elite quarterbacks, the NFL do. I put up a breakdown where I cut together seven of his best throws from this game. Those seven throws, a seam ball to Tommy Tremble, timing on the outside, a 15-yard outbreaker to Deontay Johnson, the throw to Thielen at everyone's scene, the touch throw

Starting point is 00:44:58 to Deontay, some of these intermediate layered throws over the second level and before the third level of the defense. I mean, seven throws. I don't even think I watch a lot of quarterbacks. I watch two a week bringing down giant state. I see maybe one to three throws like this from quarterback. So I don't know what it is. And I think a big factor is just the Panthers past production has been unbelievable out of nowhere, seemingly based on last year's tape. They were the second best team in past direction going into this week. and they allow just four total pressures combined against the raiders so hold on a sec because i i was going to bring that up too because they they only they had the lowest the raiders had the lowest pressure

Starting point is 00:45:34 rate so that means the panthers did the best in that but in the first two weeks i had them as the seventh worst in terms of pressure rate allowed uh Uh, now this is a subjective stat. It does depend on where you look, but I mean, I can just think of all the highlights of Bryce Young getting pressured. It was maybe a lot of it was Bryce Young's fault. I think a lot of it was Bryce Young. And this is a big disconnect with fans. They, you know, a lot of fans like to blame every sack on the offensive line, every pressure, but you know, sacks and pressures are quarterback stat as well. And part of this is goes to what Jacob broke down today on Twitter. I think this was you, Jacob. So correct me if this wasn't you and I misheard him and I misread this and someone else put this stat out, but Andy Dalton got the ball out in like 2.09 seconds,

Starting point is 00:46:13 which is insane on an average basis. He was decisive. He knew where to go with the football. I watched him process defenses. I watched him work through progressions. It's crazy to watch, but like Andy Dalton played, like I said online, I didn't get a chance to watch all 32 quarterbacks this week, but I would struggle to find a quarterback who played the position better than Dalton on tape.

Starting point is 00:46:32 And that doesn't mean, you know, he had the best game of any quarterback, though he did. Like Will Brinson said, the only quarterback this year to throw for 303 TDs in a game. I mean, he just works through his reads and the timing was crazy

Starting point is 00:46:42 and he's drilling balls in there, like velocity, ball placement, rhythm. The touch on the Deontay Johnson throw was crazy. He was backing out of pressure. I don't know what it is. I'm not positive if this can continue. But I am now excited for Deontay Johnson, who is a phenomenal player, who's been one of the best separators in the NFL over the last three years.

Starting point is 00:47:02 And I mean best, like top five separators in the NFL. Looked amazing on tape this week. Yes, and he had one touchdown. He dropped another touchdown, and he was wide open for a third, what could have been a third or really a second, and Dalton was hit as he threw. So it was a great game. It was 122 yards and a touchdown for Johnson.

Starting point is 00:47:23 There was a chance for two more touchdowns in this game. And 14 targets. And remember, when he first signed, we all expected what was going to happen. This offense was going to run through Deontay Johnson. Well, that's only possible if the offense is functional and in rhythm, the passing game. That wasn't the case with Bryce Young. So far, it has been the case with Andy Dalton. It won't look like this every week.

Starting point is 00:47:42 They're not going to face the Raiders every week, first of all. And Andy Dalton is not all of a sudden like a top five elite quarterback in the NFL, but again, he's a professional quarterback who understands how to go through regressions. The ball placement was wildly good in this game. And the anticipation, the anticipatory throwing was wildly good in this game. So I don't know. I think Deontay Johnson is somebody I want in every lineup from this point on. And Jonathan Brooks is the interesting one because Juba Hubbard's playing really good football. And he played really good football last year. So I'm not as sold that it's just going to be Jonathan Brooks' backfield. But again, super talented player, the best running back prospect in this class on tape, according to me and others who agree with that.

Starting point is 00:48:19 So I would get him. I would trade for him. And he's still not rostered in every league either, Adam. So if you're in a shallow league, you can probably scoop up Brooks still. Yeah, I mentioned him on I would trade for him. And he's only, he's still not rostered in every league either, Adam. So if you're in a shallow league, you can probably scoop up Brooks still. Yeah. I mentioned him on the waiver wire show. He is 83% rostered,

Starting point is 00:48:31 which is probably too low, but still it's too low. I mean, it'd be a hundred percent. He should be a hundred percent. Cause he could be back in week five. I haven't seen anything on him, but I know that I was surprised they put them on IR.

Starting point is 00:48:41 They were talking about a week to return and then they put Brooks on IR. All right. so going forward, Deontay, I think, is going to be in everyone's lineup. Cincinnati's had a really bad run defense. That's their next opponent. We'll see how they do tonight, and we'll see if we have faith in Chuba Hubbard, who has only started in 26% of leagues.

Starting point is 00:48:56 My wife is really pissed because she benched him. I think she blames me for that. I have some damage control to do. All right, our next topic is about tight ends. It's from DeBrin Phillips on Twitter. But honestly, I said, what do you want to hear about? And I must have gotten somewhere between five and ten topic, you know, tight end comments. So people want to hear about this.

Starting point is 00:49:19 Now, you know, why is tight end scoring down? Why is the position so bad? Here are some comparisons. Weeks one through three. Remember, we still have four tight ends left to play. Four starting tight ends tonight, including Kincaid. But here are some comparisons. In 2023, for the full season,

Starting point is 00:49:41 11 tight ends average 10 or more PPR fantasy points per game. So far, only eight are doing so. But if we just look at the first, sorry. If we just look at the first three weeks, we had three tight ends. We have three tight ends this year with 20 to 21 targets. Last year, we had five tight ends with 20 to 28 targets. So advantage last year. Last year, three tight ends had more than 15 catches. This year, three tight ends had more than 15 catches. This year, three tight ends have 15 or more catches. Pretty much the same. Three tight ends had more than 139 yards last year.

Starting point is 00:50:15 This year, two tight ends have more than 141 yards, so a little bit better last year. This is the big difference. It's touchdowns. Last year, through the first three weeks, 19 tight ends had at least one touchdown catch only 11 so far this year again that could that could change tonight five tight ends through the first three weeks had two to three touchdown catches not a single tight end this year has multiple touchdown catches so So, you know, what, what is that about? It could be just

Starting point is 00:50:47 the fact that their teams are throwing the ball so much, so much less this year. I looked at the numbers on pro football reference, and I honestly don't know if they're updated yet. I have a feeling they aren't. I don't, I think they're only through two weeks, but through two weeks, NFL teams were averaging about 30.5 pass attempts. Oh, sorry, 30.9. That was the first time in 16 seasons that teams had averaged fewer than 33 pass attempts per game. So it's a huge difference. I know that it's only two pass attempts per game, three pass attempts. It's just league-wide, they're throwing less every position.

Starting point is 00:51:22 I mean, wide receiver hasn't been that good either, but tight end has been horrible. So those are just some basic stats. Jacob, do you have any theories? Sorry for taking all of the time. No theories. That imposition is whack. It's so bad. I don't have much of a theory either.

Starting point is 00:51:38 I mean, specifically, it's supposed to be a situation where defenses are playing too high more often and giving space for these whole shots. I don't think a lot of quarterbacks attempt the seam. I'll start by saying that I watched Andy Dalton hit Tommy tremble. And I was thinking in my head, like how much tape do I watch for quarterbacks? Just don't throw up the seam and take a shot.

Starting point is 00:51:56 And in today's NFL where safeties can't really hit you, I feel like it's a nice cheat code. Um, but obviously it's scary because your guy's going to take a big hit. Um, and a lot of quarterbacks don't want to take that throw. And it's also a risky throw. It can be picked. It can be tipped and picked, or it could just be jumped and picked. So you're not using the seam. There's not a lot of tight end screens in the tape. I watch. It's not really that much involvement, like that kind of involvement, like, you know, designed involvement for these tight ends. So I think, like I said earlier, we're at a point where all the tight ends are bad. So you're not losing out that much by not having a tight end who scores every week.

Starting point is 00:52:27 So then the question is, which ones are going to actually be difference makers going forward? Sure. And who do we think that's going to be? Yeah, like even Brock Bowers played less and was less involved. When Gardner Minshew was on the field this week, Bowers had a 53% route participation and 11% target share. It's just like, why? What is this? Yeah, they spread the ball around there.

Starting point is 00:52:50 Who's going to be a difference maker moving forward? I still feel like McBride has a shot. I think Ferguson. Ferguson's a good one. Yeah, it's a good pick. You don't want to overreact to one and a half games, but so far it looks very good for Ferguson. Obviously the Cowboys, they have no run game. They're going to throw the ball a lot. And I think he's going to be second on the team and targets.

Starting point is 00:53:09 So I talked about this yesterday. I mean, how many, he was tight end nine for us. How many tight ends would you take ahead of him? I first, Oh, by the way, Kittle is definitely going to be a difference maker when he comes back or hopefully, but I think I would take McBride, Kittle, and Bowers over Ferguson. I don't know if I would take anyone else. I wouldn't take Andrews at this point. Maybe that's an overreaction, but I don't know. I can't do it. Definitely not.

Starting point is 00:53:35 I wouldn't take Pitts. So then I feel like it's getting closer with Pitts. Just getting very much closer with, with cousins, understanding this offense and getting in a rhythm with this offense, which he talked about last week after their big win against the Eagles. Like he still needs a lot more time, but that could still take time. I'm not going to bank on it. I'm just,

Starting point is 00:53:55 I've been, the pits thing is let's not go crazy there. Um, Laporta. No. Oh, Laporta. I think I probably would take Laporta over now that he's a little hurt.

Starting point is 00:54:04 No, no, no, but Kelsey, what about hurt. No, no. David Njoku. What about Kelsey? No, definitely not David Njoku. Dallas Goddard. Evan Ingram has a shot to maybe get back to

Starting point is 00:54:13 what he was last year, but that one doesn't feel great either. What about Kelsey? We skipped Kelsey. Kelsey or Ferguson. Who? The one with the crappy quarterback. Kincaid was my big buy this off season. I love his talent coming out. His college tape was great.

Starting point is 00:54:28 I thought he would be the guy. I think things are going to get better for him. Things are going to get better for him. I watch too much Joe Brady to be excited because Joe Brady is just running the football always. It's a constant flow of runs and the offense going through James Cook and whoever's on the field. So I don't know, man. I am very at a loss for words as far as who's going to separate themselves from field. So I don't know, man. I am very at a loss for words as far as who's going to separate themselves from this pack.

Starting point is 00:54:48 I don't even feel that confident in McBride despite the target chair. I don't think he never scored touchdowns last year, and I don't think he's ever going to be a big touchdown guy. All right, great stuff. Very cheery. Yeah, very cheery for these tight ends. We're doing great.

Starting point is 00:55:00 By the way, stay tuned. At the end of the show, we have a segment called Dan is a liar. What? Yeah, Mickey Walker wants to know if DK Metcalf is a top five wide receiver. Jacob Gibbs, what do you think? Is DK Metcalf a top five wide receiver? No.

Starting point is 00:55:15 Didn't you guys have a lot of notes on this? I like the way they're using Metcalf. He's being used short a lot more, but I kind of was going to defer this one to you guys. Yeah, this is just kind of what I saw. First of all, right now, he's number seven per game, DK Metcalf, 262 yards, two touchdowns. He's tied for 15th in targets. He's 12th in catches.

Starting point is 00:55:32 He's sixth in yards. I think right now, when you look at DK Metcalf, there have been two of the longest plays of his career. And one was on complete busted coverage, that 56-yard touchdown at New England. And then yesterday, a great move that he just destroyed a safety and got a 71 yard touchdown, which was the longest touchdown. I think of his career, one of the longest plays of his career against the Miami dolphins. He has a 22.9% target per route run rate, 23.8% target share. That's not really top five wide receiver material.

Starting point is 00:56:08 So I'm not complaining about Metcalf. I just want to be clear that a lot of his production has come on like 160 yards and two touchdowns. Sorry, I mean 130. 127 yards and two touchdowns on two deep balls. You can't really rely on that. He only has three or four more targets than JSN. He has seven more targets than Tyler Lockett.

Starting point is 00:56:30 So I would say if the targets don't spike, this would be a good time, I think, to sell DK Metcalf. But you could just ride it out and say, look, he's going to be a guy I start most weeks. He's going to be good. And that's perfectly fine. But I do not think he's a top five. If you can get that kind of value, if you can turn him into CeeDee Lamb,

Starting point is 00:56:50 I know some people, the novice would probably do that trade. But if it's like him and Juba Hubbard for CeeDee Lamb or something, I don't know. I can't think of a trade off the top of my head. I would try to trade Metcalf and turn him into CeeDee Lamb if you could. I think that's fair. Okay, last topic is from Keith. Who are you selling and who are you targeting in trades? Do you think that we might be able

Starting point is 00:57:17 to trade for Brees Hall right now with people just seeing the Island game with Taylor Allen and everything? So I think in a lot of cases, no. But I think in some cases, yes. And maybe you'll make a trade offer and the manager laughs at it. But I saw enough Braylon Allen panic

Starting point is 00:57:34 that yes, Jacob, I do agree with you. I think we could. Similar wavelength. What about Josh Jacobs? He got outperformed again, was not efficient this week, but things will probably look much, much different with a functional offense, a real normal offense.

Starting point is 00:57:51 Yep. I completely agree. I mean, I don't think they're going to take him off the field for Emmanuel Wilson that much. And I think he's going to catch more passes when Jordan love comes back and he'll score more touchdowns. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:58:01 He was a big one for me. Once I saw that, heard the Adams that just like touchdown regression is obvious for him. I don't necessarily feel that way about Najee Harrison. Yes, touchdown regression. Gosh. But Najee's just not good enough, really, to make a huge impact in fantasy unless he's scoring most weeks

Starting point is 00:58:18 because that was the stat. It was two running – 10 running backs have 50 or more carries. Only two of them haven't scored. It's Najee and Jacobs. But, yeah, okay, so we got Jacobs. We got Brees Hall. Brandon Ayuk. People are expecting this to be the week, myself included.

Starting point is 00:58:32 And then it was not. It was the Juwan Jennings show. I watched all 10 of his targets. They were close. He was close on a lot of them. I saw a narrative on Twitter. It felt like a lot of people were saying that he looks slow and not focused. It feels like

Starting point is 00:58:48 people are really like, God, this holdout bothered him. I don't know. I feel like he's just come really close to completing a lot of the thin margin plays that he typically gets and hasn't quite got them in his three-game sample size. What if he had caught that touchdown against the Jets in week one?

Starting point is 00:59:04 People would probably be less panicked about IU. Heath brought it up. Jamar Chase, C. Yeah. What if he had caught that touchdown against the jets in week one, people probably be less, uh, less panicked about IU, but I think, you know, Heath brought it up. Jamar chase, CD lamb, Brandon, IU super long holdouts almost to the start of the regular season. And all of them are struggling. So it makes sense. You know, Josh Jacobs did not have a good year. I think it's where he didn't fully turn it around, But the first three games of his season last year, because he was the training camp holdout, the extended one for Jacobs. They were awful. And he got better, not much better, but hopefully those guys will get much better. A couple for me, a sell high for me. People are chasing box score and fantasy points numbers.

Starting point is 00:59:39 You can always say, hey, look how many points he scored. It's Devin Singletary for the Giants. A lot of touchdown luck so far. I won't call it luck, but a lot of touchdowns so far. Tyrone Tracy finally starting to get involved this past week. Looked good in the passing game. Had a nice run, too, as well, where he did a really good job processing the block and setting up his space. So I think he'll get more involved.

Starting point is 00:59:59 I think there'll be fewer touchdowns for Singletary moving forward. So that's when I would look to sell high. I've been hoping that we could talk about Devin Singletary because you guys are watching him more than me. 165 of his 197 yards have come after contact. He leads the NFL and avoided tackles. And every time I watch him, he's making a big play. Like he's been phenomenal player. I still, I don't think you're selling high in the sense that like, Oh, he's not going to be a good player. It's just a matter of like, will the touchdown stay at this rate? So here's someone asking.

Starting point is 01:00:29 I'm mostly curious how you think the roles might shift or if it's like just his backfield as long as he's healthy. Because to me, it's like, I don't know. Are you taking this guy off the field if they're playing well, if the team is playing well? I think Tracy is going to get more involved because he started to get more involved this league and did well with his touches. Even if the Giants are playing well and winning?

Starting point is 01:00:43 Oh, no, I think he was part of the, well, yeah, but I think he was part, well, it's going to be tough to see positive game script moving forward for the Giants are playing well and winning oh you know I think like he was part of the well yeah but I think he was part well that it's going to be tough to see positive game script moving forward for the Giants maybe I'm wrong but Tracy was even

Starting point is 01:00:51 involved in this game despite them having good games so someone who said single Terry or I'm I'm a little skeptical of it Jacob I think like they'll lean on single Terry more

Starting point is 01:00:58 but single Terry or Brian Robinson rest of season I would take Robinson and then anybody agree with that? Disagree? Yeah, I agree with that. I would take Robinson.

Starting point is 01:01:09 Singletary over Tank Dell rest of season says, Rob, I disagree with that. I would try to turn Singletary into Dell. Okay. Yeah, Kevin, Imani, terrible comment by you. Just awful. Like I said, he's still playing great football with the Forceman's tackle rate.

Starting point is 01:01:23 I'm talking about fantasy football here. And touchdowns are a big part of fantasy football. And he's had a lot of touchdowns so far. And I don't know if that's going to keep up and I'm not saying sell him because he's bad. I'm saying sell him because you can sell them to someone right now. Who's going to look at the numbers for single turn and be like, this is an every week. I is scoring me a ton of points and I'll give you someone who hasn't been scoring a lot. And that's kind of what fantasy is selling high, buying low. And he has fumbled in two straight games so they got to keep that in mind one more fumble and we could be talking about

Starting point is 01:01:48 a playing time situation here um i yeah so speaking of tank dell i would definitely buy low on cj stroud i just refuse to believe that he's not going to be really good i'm not there yet um and i think dell i think better days are a hell for our hell are ahead for tank dell missed a little bit of time in yesterday's game with an injury but he seems fine i mean dell was one of the guys i hit on on last week's in the lab and i am a little bit worried just because the usage is much different now that he's only playing in three receiver sets he's not getting as many play action downfield shots that he was getting in two receiver sets last year and his routes are exclusively coming with nico and stefan digs on the field whereas last year was either nico or

Starting point is 01:02:29 no nico and tied in in a fullback where the guys he was competing for targets with um so i i mean he's amazing as a player obviously and i believe in the offense like you're saying but i do think it's just noteworthy that like not only is his role shrinked and he's playing less overall, but the opportunities he gets probably are going to be less efficient just by nature. Yeah, I don't disagree. Obviously, if I were drafting again, I would take him lower than I took him,

Starting point is 01:02:57 which was around the 5-6 turn. However, I think this is maybe the low point for Dell. There are going to be some weeks, some big weeks coming, because I think Stroud is just going to start putting up better numbers. So, you know, this is the chance to get a mid-round type of player for a late-round value, maybe. And, you know, you could maybe steal a couple of weeks or something like that if you have Dell in your lineup.

Starting point is 01:03:20 I think, to me, in my mind, he's like Rashid Shaheed or something at this point. Like, they're basically the same player, and I even prefer shaheed and that i don't know like i worry that like he has a much higher perceived value and even like what people think is a discount might not be yeah i i i can see that being the case i would also say a couple quick hitters for me sell it's not a sell high but sell kenneth walker charbonnet has been playing way too well to not be a part of this backfield when he when walker was a main thing this week. I love this David Ellis at UCLA. He was my number two back in that class. He was unbelievable.

Starting point is 01:03:50 Sell Walker because I don't see much value. He's still valued at that. Oh, when he's back, he's Kenneth Walker. I don't buy that. Didn't have many shares in many way preseason. Samir White, a player I was 55 spots lower than consensus on in my preseason rankings. Cut. Again, I said to cut him. I got laughed at two weeks ago by Adam and somebody else. player I was 55 spots lower than consensus on in my preseason rankings cut. Again, I said to cut him. I got laughed at

Starting point is 01:04:08 two weeks ago by Adam and somebody else. I don't cut him. He had what? 22% snaps he played this week. Was it Jacob? I saw your stat on that. The week before it was a much, much better role. I don't know what you said. The week before it was a much better role for him. I don't know 22% of the snaps on an awful offense.

Starting point is 01:04:23 It's going to be an awful game script. Not an awful an awful offense. That's going to be an awful game script. Oh, not an awful offense. Like, okay. That's going to be an awful game script all year. What is the point of Zimmery or white at this point? They just beat the Ravens two weeks ago on the road.

Starting point is 01:04:35 Okay, fine. They might be in decent game scripts. Even in that, he didn't, you're over. I just like, here's the Madison's getting all the red zone.

Starting point is 01:04:41 You're over it. No, Matt. Like that's, that's the thing. I don't know. Not all the red zone. He scored so far. He scored twice last year. Yesterday he was on the fields. They were in hurry zone. You're over it. No, Matt. Like that's, that's the thing. I don't know. He scored so far.

Starting point is 01:04:45 He scored twice last year. Yesterday he was on the fields. They were in hurry up. So they were trying. Raiders are by far and away. And there's a stat on this and I can't find it right now. The worst run blocking offense in the NFL. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:04:56 It's not good. It's not good. But I just don't think that you cut in a 10 team league. Fine. I just don't think that you cut a guy who's a starting running back for a team. Is he a starting running back? He is the starting running back for the team. Here's a fun one.

Starting point is 01:05:12 Who plays the first snap of a game? Samir White. He's the lead back. You get points from yards. Samir White has a 19% snap rate in the red zone. Samir White, 19% snap rate in the red zone. Bang at him.. Bang, Adam. Get him, Jacob.

Starting point is 01:05:26 He has 32 carries. He has 32 carries. 19% snap rate in the red zone, baby. They want Madison in because he can play in the pass game. And he's not one-dimensional. No, stop. No. You're overreacting to week three.

Starting point is 01:05:39 You keep telling me that. I'm just saying, he stinks. Like, he's going to be one of the worst starting running backs, but you don't cut starting running backs. You just don't do it. He's got 20 more carries in three games. Leave him on your bench, I guess. You're going to need him.

Starting point is 01:05:54 Guys get hurt. Bye weeks are coming. I would hate to start him during a bye week. I would hate to start him too, but you know what? Hockey Irving is a much better play than him, a much better play than him on a week-to-week basis. Maybe. Definitely.

Starting point is 01:06:09 Not maybe. Definitely. Bucky Irving actually does stuff with his touches and is on an offense that's going to score more. Okay. But again, I'm not cutting Bucky Irving. And I'm not cutting. I'm just. A lot of people didn't add Bucky Irving until this past week.

Starting point is 01:06:21 You don't cut. You don't cut starting running backs. And he's still not rostered in a lot of leagues. You don't cut starting running backs. There's not a single starting running back that is just sitting there on waivers. I just don't know why he's considered a starting running back when he has a 19% red zone rate and he gets taken off the field

Starting point is 01:06:31 all the time. Because he has 21 carries than Alexander Madison. He has 21. The carries are worth nothing in fantasy football. Okay. Unless you're in a standard league and it's still not worth that much. If Alexander Madison was truly the goal line back. If I see it one more time, then maybe I'll think Madison's the goal line back. But this week, I think it was an extenuating circumstance.

Starting point is 01:06:48 What do you make of Jacob's 19% red zone stat rate? Red zone rate stat? Nothing? No, I think it sucks. But I still think he's the goal line back, probably. Oh, just when they get to the goal line, exactly? Yeah, red zone. I'm talking about the red zone.

Starting point is 01:07:01 I would like to, yeah. Red zone's better. Okay, but I care about who's going to get the ball at the two not the 18 all right i'm fine with agreeing that that i'm going a little overboard here but i think when you guys laughed at me for saying he could be cuttable that was not a great laugh and i was 50 spots lower than the consensus ranks on him and that was insanely right he was way over ranked this preseason that doesn't mean you cut him though that doesn't mean you cut him i mean honestly it would be like cutting Javante Williams. Would you rather have Braylon

Starting point is 01:07:27 Allen or Zemir White right now? To me, it's Braylon Allen without even a question. His 19% snap rate in the red zone has fallen to 17% when inside the 10. Wow. There it is. Thank you, Jacob. All right. Listen, I think he's the goal linebacker still. There's not a ton of evidence to support that, but that's the thing. If he's not the goal line back, then he's useless. If he's still a bi-week replacement running back who might fall in the end zone, there are, I've played fantasy long enough. Sometimes I have to start that guy and it sucks. I get that. I'm just saying you don't cut that type of player. Two Raiders rushes from inside the five, both Alexander Madison.

Starting point is 01:08:07 I know. And last week, I have no explanation for it. Yesterday, I have an explanation for it. And again, I said they were trying to hurry up so that the previous play wouldn't get reviewed because Gardner Minshew may have been short of the first down. That was a third down play, and Madison was on the field. So they kept Madison in the game, and they gave it to him. They went

Starting point is 01:08:26 into the game talking about how they had to get Zamir White going. They obviously didn't have the game. That doesn't work when you're the worst run blocking team by a wide margin in the entire NFL. All right. Dan is a liar is our final segment. Dan is a liar. It sounds to me like the only liar here is you with the redstone stats that were immediately debunked

Starting point is 01:08:42 by Jacob. I think you should sell high on Quentin Johnson. I went and watched his tape this week. He's literally just running wind sprints. He has two touchdowns on busted coverages, but he's got a touchdown every week. Maybe you can sell him. Maybe I'll try to sell him in my dynasty league. Anybody want to fight me over that take?

Starting point is 01:08:58 I would try to sell him to the guy who has the most points in our dynasty league. Unfortunately, that guy's not here right now because Dan is a liar he said he's the highest scoring player team in our dynasty i was i was 60 points oh did i lose it this week i had maybe lost you didn't check you didn't check this week's score one third of the scoring and you decided i'm not gonna check this week's score i'm just gonna so what am i three and oh with the second most points i don't know what you are i just know that guess what i have josh I have Josh Allen and James Cook playing tonight. Are you out of your mind?

Starting point is 01:09:27 Are we doing projected points or are you just doing total points? I have two of the best players in fantasy playing tonight. This is Schaefer's stat. He's the one who called you out. I'm just hearing. Currently, you're not the leading. Oh, Schaefer with a horrible take here. Currently, you're not the points leader.

Starting point is 01:09:41 With Josh Allen and James Cook ready to cook tonight. I mean, come on, boys. What are we talking about here? We're saying I'm currently not the points leader with josh allen and james cook ready to cook tonight i mean come on boys what are we talking about here we're saying i'm currently not the point so look at projected points i mean i think my team's a lot better than yours once i get jordan love back so we'll see no team is better than mine look at my receivers once the receivers come back in my team my team is let me give a quick overview for the listeners and say you got zay flowers uh jackson smith the jig bell what are you what are you doing i have jamar chase My team is loaded. Let me give a quick overview for the listeners. You got Zay Flowers, Jackson Smith, the Jigbell. What are you doing?

Starting point is 01:10:08 I have Jamar Chase. I have Aaron Wilson. Well, the good news is that there's more positions in fantasy than wide receiver, and this is a super flex league where I have Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Brees Hall, Jameer Gibbs, and James Cook on one roster. What has Jalen Hurts done the last nine games? He's been terrible. I mean, look, Thomas, this is laughable.

Starting point is 01:10:28 That's a bad take. Actually, how about this, Thomas? Talk to me in the private chat. We'll do a side bet on this. Next round of golf, once I come down there to Florida, we'll bet the round of golf. I'm totally in on that. For who has more points, end of season.

Starting point is 01:10:40 You can say yes in the chat if you like it, if you're scared, which I kind of feel is my take. We're talking about just points. We're not talking about who's going to win the league. Total points at the end of the season. That's the true determiner of the best team. Wow. Accept it in the private chat if it's real.

Starting point is 01:10:54 This is top-notch comedy we're getting here. We don't even have 200 likes on YouTube, and that's insane. Like the video. Like this, please. Subscribe to the FFP newsletter. I need to. Tune in on Thursday for Beyond the Box score. In the lab. A lot of favors right here. Hover over your mouse and click the like button. It's

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Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: TEs are Awful, Metcalf is Great, Are the Panthers Legit? (09/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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