Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Box Score: Worried About Jonathan Taylor? Pumped for Ken Walker? Sitting Emeka Egbuka? (11/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: November 24, 2025We recap Bucs-Rams (5:45) and wonder if we can trust Emeka Egbuka even if he gets his starting quarterback back. How are we feeling about Kyren Williams right now? ... News and notes (17:05) and we've... got a lot of advanced metrics and thoughts on the Eagles-Cowboys game (19:05) and the struggling Ravens offense (26:40). Is the Cowboys defense legit? Are Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry going to emerge from mediocrity? ... Snap counts galore (41:55)! Which running backs had encouraging usage in Week 12? What do you need to know about TreVeyon Henderson, Chimere Dike, Aaron Jones and the Bengals tight ends? And we finish with Buy or Sell (57:30) on Ashton Jeanty, Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones, Ken Walker and Jameson Williams ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS.
sports.
What a play!
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No, I can't.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races, and he stays at his feet.
It's just going to go the distance.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
All right, welcome to Beyond the Box Score, baby.
Advanced stats from simple people, and this is fantasy football today, presented by BetMGM.
Make it legendary.
Today we're going to talk about the Colts' offense, tough schedule.
down the stretch. What do we think about Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor? Taylor coming off a really
rough game at the Chiefs. How about Ashton Genti with a new offensive coordinator as Chip Kelly
fired by the Raiders today? And Ken Walker had an encouraging game, although you may not see it,
you know, it might not hitches right in the face. We'll tell you why things were encouraging.
How do we feel about him? There's going to be so much more we talk about. I think we're going to get
to that Eagles offense against the Cowboys. And of course, the Rams and the Bucks. Happy Monday, Dan Schneier.
What's up?
What's going on?
I'm excited to be here.
I took a little peek into the comments and see that the fans of the show are asking for a potential charity golf match between me and Schaefer, producer Thomas, next offseason.
So I'm very excited about that.
I already got that in my calendar.
I'm calling it a thing and we're going to make it happen.
And I am going to get my, you know what, kicked like you got yours in tennis.
Okay.
Well, I know who I'm going to be rooting for.
Jacob, how are you?
What's going on?
How do you feel about the chiefs?
yeah chief's got an important win i'm doing i'm doing pretty good this is just this is a funny time of
season that we've arrived at here where like we kind of think that we know things people feel like
they know things and so they almost feel like they're entitled to that like playing out but it's not
we're still in the midst of chaos it's still the NFL and so it's like we think bashal tutin's going
to get this role or whatever you know and if you're like a sick sick person like me you're like
thinking that terence ferguson's going to get more playing time or whatever um and a lot of it just
doesn't come to fruition exactly the way you think it'll go.
So it's been fun to kind of dig into all of this.
And yeah, I don't know.
I feel like I've come to this like fantasy enlightenment or something where I don't let
this stuff bother me, which is so nice.
Like I feel like it can be so, so exhausting and fatiguing to like always have these
expectations and what things to go your fantasy team's way and to be able to just
be like, I've got no control over that.
Like what's the point of being mad about it?
It is funny, I feel like over the years of doing this, sorry, Adam, I just want to get this in real quick.
Like, my tilt factor has gone down by such a significant amount.
Like, as I'm watching the games and watching my teams lose or something bad happened to me, I used to get so mad.
And now I have also maybe found that enlightenment that Jacob has.
It's going to happen.
It's going to be random.
It's going to be chaotic.
We just got to let it play out.
Totally.
And you know what?
When you get asked about the same players all the time, and it just goes to, you
show you that I don't know what's going to happen with Lamar Jackson, you know, we could do
all this deep dive. It's just so unpredictable. But I don't want to, you know, trivialize what
we do. We can obviously look at things that help. I'm not saying that there's no way to be good
at predicting, you know, sports. But it is obviously, you know, it is tough. It is tough.
And there's so many things that we can't control. So I agree. However, with that said,
if I lose in the fantasy football today league again, I've lost three weeks, me and Dustin,
and three, my partner donated to St. Jude,
three weeks already this year, maybe four, by four or fewer points.
If we lose again tonight, we're up by about 25 facing Brock Bertie.
That's it.
I'm freaking done.
I'm never doing another show.
So I agree with all of your enlightenment stuff, but if it happens again in the FFT League,
I'm done, I'm going ballistic, I'm going postal, get the hell out of my way.
Okay.
Well, we better get that rant on air is all I can say.
And that first comment better not be true.
This, we cannot even come close so forth to lose Adam, Adam Azar on the show.
I hope Brock Purdy doesn't score tonight.
Yikes.
I mean, I have a similar situation, Adam, up six with Christian McCaffrey against Brock Purdy.
Before you say, oh, you're the easy favorite.
Understand this is a league that awards 0.25 points or sorry, 0.5 points per completion.
Oh, you're done.
Point five.
I am done.
I am the one who is done.
All right.
Rams 34, Tampa Bay, 7.
obviously a very disappointing game.
And it was not to say it would have been a blowout,
but it was pretty one-sided even at halftime.
Baker Mayfield missed the entire second half.
So it's hard to answer questions about what the bucks are going to look like next week.
We don't know who their quarterback will be,
whether it's Bridgewater or Mayfield.
We think Bucky Irving has a good chance to play in week 13.
They're facing Arizona, which is a really good matchup for running backs.
We see it week after week after week.
but you know what kind of rotation do they have there that's uncertain so it's really a lot of
uncertainty rest of season for the bucks right now but the one guy that i'm seeing a lot of
questions about is a mecca abuka uh just give you a quick a quick chris godwin note he 68%
rostered 5% started he he ran about half the routes um and uh yeah he was on the field for
18 routes he had four targets no other player had more than two targets when chris goblin was on
the field so he did lead the team in targets but it's all small sample size stuff anyway dan how are you
feeling about a mecca abuka who was dynamite the first five games of the season got hurt in week
six last five games he's on pace for 952 yards and three touchdowns yeah on a hundred and seventy
three targets though so how you feeling about abuka right now yeah so they've tried in each week
and i've been grinding the tape on this to figure it out to dial up these deep concepts
for him and he's gotten open on them every single time and the ball placement or the timing of
the throws just hasn't been there and that's what baker mayfield out there at quarterback who's
obviously not playing at the level we grew accustomed to last season now you take mayfield
out of that i i would imagine they're going to explore other options personally i would think than
teddy bridgewater i i don't i don't really understand the bridgewater thing at all from the start
of it like why he was signed like why he's playing to me he looks completely done for playing like
He's just not in what I would consider deemed to be football shape.
I don't know if you guys disagree on that based on what you saw.
And it's tough to come in mid-game, mid-week, you know, with no reps with the first team.
But I don't know, man.
I don't see much hope there.
So if we just assume Baker's there, because I think without Baker,
Ibuka becomes someone I would want to leave on my bench.
If we just assume Baker's there, there's something about the way this offense is operating
that has me scared about it at Buka rest of season.
I think part of what made him.
so special was they were operating a high level.
They were getting into the red zone.
He was winning on a lot of those red zone routes,
and he was running more intermediate vertical routes.
Like the route we saw him run in the second half,
where he caught that deep over from Bridgewater
and kind of turned it into like a 30-yard game,
the only play he really made all game.
Those are the type plays we saw earlier in the season.
Now his role has seems to be, yeah,
the 173 target pace is nice,
but there's a lot of round line of scrimmage throws.
And those don't seem to be creating much after the catch
because no one's really respecting the bucks using this,
game as an extension of the run game. So for me, I'm very concerned with Ibuka, with or without Baker,
but obviously without Baker, he becomes someone that's just sitting on my bench. Check out this play
here. This is the third route of the game. 11 something minutes left in the first quarter. Abuka's
at the bottom of the screen there. He put a great move on Colby to Rand. Yep. All right. And this could
have been a long touchdown Baker Mayfield under through the ball. Unfortunately, I mean, a lot of
of his production of Buka was was big play reliant.
So those, yeah, look, sometimes you're going to be two steps behind your defender
and your quarterback's going to miss it or something like it happens.
But he changed, you know, all right, here's the thing.
I'm going to end it with this.
This game we don't have to talk about for too long.
He got hurt in week six.
And he didn't miss any time.
And people were shocked.
I think he had a hamstring injury.
Based on what I saw last night watching the routes this morning, I don't think he's hurt.
I think he looks fine,
but they're not connecting on the big plays.
I talked about that in the preview on Friday
where Baker Mayfield's big play rate
has been way down the last five weeks.
And I was like, man,
Mayfield and Abuka have been bad
three of the last four weeks.
And now they're facing the number two defense
into the league.
Man, maybe we shouldn't be so optimistic.
I was still fine with Abuca, obviously.
I thought he'd be great,
but it didn't work out.
Rams are tough.
Rams are really good.
They're just not hitting on these big plays.
They're not hitting on the explosives
like they used to.
Now, we go over to the Ram side of the ball.
This is, I'm obviously every week, I'm frustrated with Kyron Williams and his usage,
even though the production had been fine.
But it is now seven of his last eight games with 14 or fewer carries.
I'm sure you'll continue to start him.
He's got Carolina next week.
That's a very good matchup.
Arizona, very good matchup.
But what do you, Jacob, you have anything to say about Devante Adams and Pooka Nakua?
Their studs, feel, are you feeling better, Dan, about the Devon
to Adams hold and sending away Nico Collins.
Yeah, he's so good, man.
I took a lot of heat for that trade from Jamie and Adam when I brought it up on the
I was on your side.
Don't tell me that.
No, no, not on the Adams versus Nico side of it.
I'm just doing that type of trade.
Meanwhile, part of that trade was getting James.
It was the whole Giants quarterback's trip.
I don't do that.
I don't win this week for fantasy and I moving forward.
Flacco is going to be bent.
So I don't know what I would have done.
I wouldn't have started a QB at Superflex.
To me, it was a must trade situation.
But as far as Devante Adams goes and if I'm feeling confident about it, Jacob, there's no real reason not to, right?
Like, I think Adam broke this down so well in our show notes before the show.
Like, looking at Devante's numbers, it's pretty insane how fantasy friendly his profile has been for the entire course of the season, leading the NFL in red zone targets and green zone targets.
And there was one other stat in there that I'm blanking on Adam.
Oh, maybe you have it.
Well, he leads an end zone targets.
He has 22 end zone targets this year.
Pooka Nakua has three.
But what's amazing to me about Devante,
He's on pace for 19 touchdowns, and he's currently averaging 16 and a half PPR fantasy points per game.
If I saw a player who's 17 game pace with 74 catches, 975 yards, and 19 touchdowns on 145 targets, I would say sell high, sell high, sell high.
He's really bad in yards per target right now.
You know, he's just scoring touchdowns, basically.
But I don't feel that way.
I don't understand why the efficiency's been so bad.
I think he looks great.
Stafford looks great.
It's really weird to me.
So I'm just going to put it behind me.
Sorry, I'm my bad.
Go ahead.
It does seem to me, I'm curious to get both of your take on this.
It does seem to me from watching that while Stafford individually has been unbelievable, obviously.
And I still think Devante Adams has really good release package off the line of scrimmage.
They have, like, there's still some room to grow, I feel like with their rapport when it comes
of those intermediate outbreaking routes on all of them i feel like the ball placement's been a little
off like dvante's had to jump a little for them it's not just like hitting him coming out of his
break that i think can improve i also think when it comes to just the efficiency standpoint and
just the volume standpoint outside of the red zone part of this is just the rams defense is so
damn good you get a lot of these games where like sean mcface sitting on the ball for an
entire half i've seen this happen a lot this is like part of the andy read experience like
when these teams are these types of coaches and it's smart right like them they're up by this
much going into the second half they just sit on the ball and there's just no air under it for the
rest of the game for a fantasy standpoint it is what it is i mean i think it's obvious you're starting
stafford you're starting puka you're starting adams i do think kairn is an interesting discussion he
kind of just rotates series with yeah corum so we'll talk about that later let's move on to
not even a guarantee to get all the red zone work that's the scariest part he's not if it's
Corum's drive, Corum will not necessarily be in, but very likely be in.
This happened last night.
When Adams caught his first touchdown from the one-yard line, Kyrin was in.
When they were at the five-yard line, a few series later, Corum was in.
Just what happens.
And I tried to kind of bring it up, and I felt like I was sort of poo-poohed.
But, you know, he's not, he's part of the today 2025 NFL where almost everyone's
in a freaking committee now, and I can't stand it.
Colby Parkinson is also interesting.
He scored a touchdown in three straight games.
Tyler Higby's on IR.
We'll talk about him on the WaverWire show if you need someone in a deeper format.
All right, we need you to get out and vote.
You may not be aware of this, Jacob and Dan.
Fantasy football today is part of this 64 podcast or radio show bracket on the 64.com.
And we won our first round.
All right.
We're heavy favorites, or at least should have been.
Well, let's hope we are.
Are we down as a seven seed?
I don't know what seed we are.
They're not a number.
Is that a seven seed?
Well, listen, I don't know.
Seven?
I don't know.
This is based on any, this is, this is, this is, you're not offended by the seed?
Can you, can you please stop criticizing the, the bracket?
These people were nice enough to put us in the field.
Listen, I'm glad you're putting us in the field.
I would just like to have a word with your selection committee.
That's all.
I have no issues with.
selection committee. So we are now matched up against men and blazers, and I think we only have
one day to vote. So today or early tomorrow, please get out there and vote. Go to the 64.com.
Click on that first link. It's the sports radio link. I'm sorry, I don't know exactly what it says.
You'll see it. And click on our matchup. Vote for fantasy football today. You can either do it
with your phone. You just, they text you a phone number. You type in the code and you vote for us,
or you can do it on Facebook. It's the 64, the64.com. The 64.com.
make it happen. All right, we got a lot of good stuff on Beyond the Box Score this week.
So tune into all those episodes. And I got to get a break in here. And we'll be right back with
your news and notes. And Jacob's going to start talking soon. I promise. Been hogging the
mic. That those moments are done. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.
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Some news updates
here, other than Baker Mayfield,
who is the shoulder injury. Aaron Rogers is expected
to play. I haven't seen anything on
Gentie. Camara's got
not a serious knee injury necessarily,
but he might miss some time.
Jalen Waddle missed practice
coming off of the by
so that was interesting
but Darren Waller
will practice this week
he scored four touchdowns
in three games
in three healthy games
Will Campbell
it's not a torn ACL
or anything like that
I think it's a sprained MCL
for Will Campbell
I don't remember exactly
he could miss some time
and their left guard
Jared Wilson has a high ankle
sprain he's going to miss some time
so that's not great
for the Patriots offense
I thought he was done though
Campbell. Yeah, that's huge. Yes.
That would have changed everything for Drake May and for the entire fantasy outlook for them.
Trace Smith has an ankle injury, the chief star offensive guard. Let's see what the exact
update there is, but that's going to be, I think, a few weeks for him. I got some more news
coming in. I'll give it to you later. And let's get to Jacob now. Jacob, tell us about some
metrics that caught your eye or anything you want to talk about. Yeah, first I want to let you all
know that we're going to do fun beyond the box score show this week. Pretty excited for that.
normally it's just like giving you all the data that we can and of course we're going to do that as well all shows are fun Jacob all shows are fun yeah for us I have been told they could be a little boring but not this week we're bringing the energy the word you're looking for not boring dense yeah okay um both we are doing an awards show and we're going to go through like best quarterback pick best running back pick fantasy MVP all this stuff look at which players have actually
like helped win weeks and swing matchups this league or this week and then look forward to
the rest of the season and how that might play out for somebody like Jonathan Taylor Segway.
We're going to talk about him today.
Got some tough matchups.
So maybe he was an early season winner, but not so much late season.
So definitely tune in for that beyond the box score episode.
Yeah, I'm glad we're finally done with that Bucks Rams game.
I want to talk about the freaking Cowboys Eagles game.
Yes.
And this is present on my mind because I'm a Chiefs fan
and we've got the Cowboys this week on Thanksgiving.
But to me, like, the Cowboys are kind of looking dangerous right now.
They're looking pretty good.
And this was a statement game, of course.
To dig out of 21-0, they played like the Cowboys that we've seen a lot to begin that game.
But then they were able to dig out.
I think that's really impressive.
But it also says a lot about the Eagles and where they're at.
In a game that they were leading throughout, they didn't run the ball,
hardly at all really weird right like that's not what we come to expect from the eagles they
just haven't been able to run the ball um i think they had like 12 running back runs or something in
this game and again they got up 12 21 oh that's super weird um so they throw a lot it is this big j
brown game but still devante smith leads with targets leads with air yards 31% target share
56% air yarded share so looks really good for him he's just such a stud um but i'm i'm worried about
the Eagles. I'm worried about the line. Like the fact that they weren't willing to run the
ball, I think points towards their fear of what's going on with the line. And we got a 49%
pressure rate for Jalen Hertz in this game to 2.46 seconds was the time to pressure. So a lot of
pressure and it was coming fast. It wasn't just him holding the ball. There were a few times I think
in the second half, especially where he kind of froze. But like they were getting there consistently
throughout this game.
So that is worrisome for the Eagles offensive line
and then is also really intriguing, I think, for the Cowboys
because the game before that was against the Raiders
where they look so amazing.
And I was like, let's see it gets an actual unit.
So we'll see.
You just said, Chiefs are missing, Tray Smith.
He's more of a run blocker than a pass blocker.
But really interesting stuff for the Cowboys.
And then, of course, if you got anything on the Eagles,
go ahead and go.
But of course, the most interesting takeaway for Dan and I here is
George Pickens.
just dominating like even in this matchup just looking like the best player on the field uh he's wide
receiver two on the year behind only jackson smith and jigba and the five games since cd lamb has
returned 529 receiving yards for george pickens in those five games over 100 yards for games
since cid lamb has returned compared to 410 for lamb 100 ppr points for pickins in those five
games since lamb has returned 81 for lamb he's just looking like a freaking
and stud.
Yeah, so there's a few things I want to pack.
First, I want to start on the Eagles side of it.
A big factor in this, and one of the most underrated and easy ways to change a defense
or to change really a fantasy outlook for a defense and the matchups they have moving forward
is adding an interior disruptor.
And that's what Quinn and Williams is.
I think yesterday he had the most pressures in his career with the Cowboys.
And he got hurt and I think he played through the injury.
I'm not sure if he's re-injured it.
I see in the comments that he's injured again.
I'm not sure that would change their entire outlook.
Quinn and Williams completely changes the Cowboys defense.
I predicted he would, and I knew he would, and he is doing that.
He's playing motivated.
He's playing much better than he did with the Jets.
And that defense is becoming a problem.
They can get pressure on the quarterback, and they're not as exposed on the back end
with their own coverages because of that.
So that's the start, and obviously Lane Johnson not there.
When it comes to that offense moving forward, like I'll get your guys take on this in a moment.
Barkley, man.
It is one of the most disappointing things you can get in fantasy.
Like the whole idea was don't draft him because he has 400 touches.
I didn't subscribe to that because I thought the offense would still be elite.
He's not even injured by any means.
And he just can't score in fantasy football because they can't generate anything on the wrong game.
He doesn't get any of their red zone touchdowns.
It's really just you would think like at one point they'd give Barkley a carry inside like at the one or two yard line just to give him a touch.
I agree.
Yeah.
You agree, right?
Like it doesn't always have to be.
I have a lot of Jalen Hertz, and they got down.
I forgot who it was, Pickens, maybe.
Whoever has said, like, got down to the one.
And I was like, you know what?
I just have this feeling they're going to give the ball to Barclay.
He deserves one.
And they did.
They certainly did not.
And I was happy.
So it's really become a massive problem because there was a lot of stats that led me to like
Barkley in the offseason, which were like, look, there were so many Barclays carries
that got stopped at the one or two yard line.
This year, those, you know, if they go an extra yard or two, he'll get
a lot more touchdowns, right?
But that's not going to happen because we've seen it.
So I've lost a lot of faith in that in time,
and everyone but Jalen Hertz in that offense.
Obviously, A.J. Brown is getting more design looks, so that's good.
He's fine.
You can start him.
You can start Devante Smith.
Like, they're going to get you some production at times, but it's very inconsistent.
On the flip side of the ball, George Pickens,
thank you for bringing him up, Jacob.
This is my preseason flag plant, my most rostered player in every league.
And I went back and doubled down on last week's show as a
flag plan for a league winner. But as far as what I've seen from him, it's better than I could
have even expected. I think maybe Lamb's injury is playing a role in this. I'm curious if you
guys think that. Or is it just that defenses have shifted so much of their attention to Lamb
that Dak is just taking advantage of these one-on-ones because that's what we project in the preseason.
I think it's mostly the latter. I think it's just kind of a fluke. Honestly, I think they're both
awesome. My pickens is playing at such a high level. He's doing so much after the catch. He's really good. But
over the next four games or five games,
it wouldn't surprise me if Lamb were better than Pickens.
I don't know.
Because Pickens lines up outside.
He gets the tougher cornerbacks, I'd say, more often than Lamb does.
And it's not mattering.
Not that Quinnian Mitchell was following him.
I think Mitchell basically just stayed on his side.
But whatever the reason, I don't even, honestly,
I don't even care to speculate on the reasoning.
It doesn't matter.
It's amazing what's happening right now.
and Cowboys offense is just producing fantasy points.
I'm not so sure about the Cowboys defense, though,
because the Eagles scored 21 points.
That's what they average for the year.
The Eagles aren't a good offense.
The Eagles are a below average offense.
So I am pretty convinced about the Cowboys,
convinced isn't the right where.
I'm thinking they probably have a good run defense now.
I'm not sure that I'm sitting wide receivers or quarterbacks.
against the Cowboys, even considering that.
We'll see what Mahomes, crappy Mahomes does against them.
But I'm not quite there yet because the Raiders aren't a good offense.
And neither are the Eagles.
I'm sorry to say it, but we're 12 games or 11 games in for them.
They're averaging 21.4 points per game.
That ranks 19th in football.
That's just what they are.
That's what they scored yesterday.
All right.
But that's the thing.
But what do I do with this A.J. Brown game?
Am I buying back into A.J. Brown?
I don't even think he was a top 40 wide receipts.
going into this week.
Am I all of a sudden
I'm starting him again?
I don't know.
Like I said,
it was still Devante Smith
dominating the usage.
That's how it's been
pretty much all year
after the first couple of games.
Last week being the one
exception where they forced the ball
to AJB,
I wouldn't want to be buying
into AJ Brown.
I think you just are holding them
if you've got them
and hoping for the best.
Okay.
I want to transition to the Ravens,
if that's good with y'all.
I think they're an interesting
for Larry here where it's another team
where we've got this running back
who completely dominated the league.
week last year, or seeing a bit of a falloff this year, both Henry and Sequin Barclay,
how much of that do you blame on the circumstances?
How much of that do you blame on the actual running back?
Can you trust them going forward?
The Lamar Jackson discussion is really interesting, too, especially for fantasy.
He's giving you, like, what, 12 fantasy points or something over the last two weeks?
Yeah, right.
That's what I'm talking about.
Somebody was giving me grief in the comments about my fantasy enlightenment and stuff
and saying that that was just kind of a cop-out for me, like, you know, getting calls
wrong or whatever and just being like, ah, it doesn't matter.
That's not what I'm saying at all, of course.
I own whatever we give you in terms of advice.
But like Lamar Jackson, averaging five and a half points over the past two weeks,
who the hell could have ever predicted that?
He's hurt.
He's hurt.
I don't know.
I watched him and he doesn't look that different to me.
None of his rushing metrics are any different, even since he's gotten back.
His rushing metrics is he are good, like advanced, making people miss,
getting yards after contact, stuff like that.
But he's not running.
That's what he's sitting there in these pockets and no one's open.
And he's just, he's not.
taking off. I feel like he's reluctant to run. That's my impression over the last two games.
Your thoughts? I don't have the numbers here, but I'm pretty sure he ran a handful of times,
at least in this past game, one of which he took a hit, you know, going for it, being like initiating
the contact, being aggressive. I didn't think he looked that much different. There were a couple
misses in this game. Like, he missed on an intermediate throw that he's usually money on early in the
game. He overthrew a sideline shot to Hopkins late in the game. But he misses those, honestly,
if you watch a lot of Lamar, he just misses those deep shots sometimes.
To me, like, I don't, I think the running is, I don't see any indication that the running
is diminished.
He hasn't made it any, like, huge electric plays, but we're talking about, like, a two- or
three-week sample size, and that can just kind of happen, right?
Like, he's not, I mean, obviously he doesn't rush for 80 yards every single game.
So, like, if he doesn't break a long one.
So my issue with the, you're 100% right.
Over his last two games, he has 11 carries for 21 yards.
I just think that last week he had, I think, a knee issue,
and this week he had an ankle issue.
They were different injuries than the...
I know he had hamstring knee ankle.
I can't remember the order.
One of them caused him to miss those three games.
Then he came back.
He was seemingly healthy for Miami.
He didn't really run, but he threw four touchdowns.
And then the last two weeks, then he had the Minnesota game.
The last two weeks, injury pops up.
He misses Wednesday.
Then he practices and he plays.
New injury pops up.
the following week,
misses Wednesday practice,
pop,
then he practices and plays.
So to me,
that is the only thing.
I'm not worried about
Lamar Jackson.
I think I've said this
like six times now,
but I think
Bateman will help him
because I just think
they have garbage receivers
other than Zayflowers right now.
I mean, Andrews is good,
but I just don't think
he's explosive right now
because of these new injuries.
But that's just me.
I don't know if that's true.
It is alarming to see
this horrible rush
production two straight games and two like unbelievably bad games from him it's yeah it's been horrible
for the office as a whole like i've got numbers on that the third worst success rate in a game as an
offense in the lamar jackson era the worst since 2020 this is the worst that the team's rushing success
rate has been in any lamar jackson game ever so i points to something you pointed i saw i don't know
if you're leading the direction i get why people are worried and sounding the alarm here um but i don't
think i would point towards lamar i just watched every play in the game um i think i
think he probably is like 80% of his full health self, but in any given season at week
12, he's probably like 85 or 90% of his full self. He looks like he's healthy enough to play
and run. To me, it's like Derek Henry's not playing nearly as well. On runs where Derek
Henry has at least gotten to the line of scrimmage before initial contact, he's 26th in EPA
per rush. He's 42nd out of 59 qualifiers and success rate. Last year, he was second and 11th in those
metrics. And I even removed runs of 60 or more yards from last year because his longest run
this year to try to make it, you know, similar to this year when he gets to the line of
scrimmage. So I'm trying to take out the runs where the line is the problem or demons are
stacking the box. He hasn't been good. He's been below average. His rushing yard over
expectation looks okay, but it's not nearly as good as last year. Last year he led the league in
rush yards over expectation. That's perniction stats. His timed speed is down slightly. Pernexion
stats. Even on his long run, he had a 59-year run. It was not as high as like, I think,
I think it had like six, five or six higher timed runs last year. And then the last thing
is, is avoided tackle rate. 25% last year. It's 9.5% this year is Derek Henry's
avoided tackle rate. Last year, he only had one game where he did not have multiple avoided
tackles. He had games of six, seven, eight, eight, ten, twelve avoided tackles. Those are
individual games he's topped out at five this year five four three three two those are his best
games he has one or no avoided tackles in over half of his games this year um to me this is the
bigger problem is like last year he was dominant and that made it where the offense was impossible
to defend and it just hasn't been that way this year i think that extends though like i think for me
that extent sorry adam do you have something on that no no i just said wow but i think i think
i know it is a wow stat right like look at those
numbers like it just shows you the difference but is it all just derrick henry falling off or is it
the same factor that just got the highest paid offensive coordinator of the NFL fired chip
kelly the offensive line is not playing good football in baltimore that's what i see when i watch
this team and that's the difference between last year when they were able to dominate up front
and create a little bit of space for henry which kind of dictated everything they did off of play
action and in their past game in general which was a extension inside sometimes of what they did off
their run game with Henry. That's just not there this year. They've dealt with injuries.
There's players coming back in and out of lineup, but it's not performing at a high level,
the Ravens offensive line. And that's what I see when I watch this football team. When you
don't have a high functioning, like how many good fantasy offenses do we have? Adam, you may have a
good memory on this. How many good fantasy offenses have there been with awful offensive lines?
First of all, I don't think I would call Baltimore's offensive line awful.
It doesn't look good to me. But I don't know that it's awful. But yeah, I mean,
It didn't look good against the Browns.
It was awful against the Browns.
We can say that, right?
Or is that just all Lamar?
No, I agree.
It's not awful that Lamar's not processing and he's not seeing it well.
But from a Henry standpoint, or Henry has completely fallen off.
I think the only team that's had maybe that I can think of that's had maybe an awful offensive line recently and great fantasy production would be the Bengals.
That's a good one.
The Borough Bengals.
But that's not this offense here.
They're not throwing the ball a bunch of times.
Derek Henry's yards before contact per carry last year was a ridiculous 2.41.
This year it's 1.26.
It's basically half.
But if you look at his career, that's actually one of the higher numbers of his career.
That's the third highest.
1.26?
Yeah, it's the third highest.
Yeah, he's that horrible situation.
Fourth highest.
Sorry, fourth highest.
And he's averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
This is what, if you listened to the show yesterday for all of you,
I was blown away by Derek Henry's yards per carry.
He's like, really?
He's averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
That doesn't feel that way.
He is part of this group of players
that you're probably going to start him every week
unless you have a great team.
But when you look at your team
and you're going through your teams
and you go, all right, do I have a shot?
Am I going to win the championship in this league?
You look at your team and you've got these players.
Man, I got J.S.N.
You know, I've got Christian McCaffrey.
Derek Henry's not one of those players.
Seguan Barclay's not one of those players.
Seguan Barclay is not one of those players.
We could sit here and try so hard to explain what's going on.
But I think this is kind of what we were talking about earlier.
It's like at some point, just this is what the situation is.
And I'm sorry, if you have Derek Henry.
I know he had a good game yesterday.
You know, he scored the touchdowns.
But how can you sit there and feel super confident every week with Derek Henry?
How could you feel super confident with Sequan Barclay?
I think they're in the same group to me.
They are in the same group.
And it's borne out by the stats.
This is the key to it.
They're not in the same group for me the rest of the season.
Just to be clear, I think Henry's going to outscore Barclay by a considerable amount.
I'm not so sure.
Just because the schedule is so much, so much easier.
That's the only reason.
But they're in the same group of like, these are not backs that help you in fantasy from a passing game standpoint on a consistent basis.
It's why players Jacob and I really tout in the preseason like Christian McCaffrey types and Chase Brown, who obviously went through it, but is now coming back to it that get involved in the past game are so much different.
When you have a player like Barkley or Henry, you're relying.
on three things. One, touchdowns because you're expecting the offense to be really good.
That's not the case with the Ravens offense. That's not the case for the Eagles offense.
Two, yards created before contact to lead to explosive plays. They're both explosive playback
runners, Henry and Barclay. That's why they scored last year. That's why they were so good in
fantasy. But both players have seen their yards created by their offensive line fall by half.
And Barclays is even worse. The Eagles went from like 3.4 to like whatever they're at this
year, which is awful. So without the offensive line creating yards,
the big plays are not going to be there.
And without the big plays not going to be there,
you're relying on either red zone touchdowns,
which Barclay doesn't get, Henry at least gets,
or receptions which have never been a part of either of their profile.
So you just lose.
So what are they offering at that point?
It's been part of Barclay's profile in the past,
but I get what you're saying.
Not with Jalen Hertz.
No, not with Hertz.
I feel the same with Judkins.
One of our commenter says, yeah,
I mean, that's a great call.
I'm not going to sit here to say you should sit Judkins
because these guys get so much work.
that they can easily have a two-touchdown game.
Right.
And then someone says, is Bijan Robinson in that group now?
No, I don't think so.
I don't know.
Is he not?
I don't think so.
Jacob is Bejohn.
He needs explosive plays too.
And he makes them, though.
He does get them.
I just feel way, way, way better about his floor because he gets receptions.
Yep, yeah.
But you're worried about, I mean, sure.
I mean, I understand being worried about Bejohn having touchdown opportunities.
By the way, I want to put that out there.
All right.
For those who are completely worried about that state of that Falgun's offense.
We got a cousin's bomb.
That's crazy.
Got a cousin's bomb that was pretty well-timed and pretty good ball placement.
He had a couple out passes that scared me.
They floated in the air really high and then dropped into the receiver, but they'd get there.
The arm isn't what it was, but I think that I'm not a, I was shockingly surprisingly,
because my expectations were so low, a little bit enthused by what I saw from the Falcons office.
That was very incurringed.
I was shockingly surprisingly because my expectations were so low a little bit enthused.
I love it.
All right, let's take a break.
Can I just close on the Henry thing real quick?
On runs where he at least got to the line of scrimmage before initial contact,
he has a 6% stuffed rate, which is double his rate last year.
It's the highest rate in the NFL.
This is my problem with Henry.
He has one of the highest stuff rates in the league.
Last year was pretty good.
And this is why I contextualize it by cutting out all the plays where he got hit in the backfield.
Because when he's getting a line of scrimmage, he's just not finding as much success.
Right.
And that's not going to be perfect.
isolating exactly what Henry is doing all in his own and what's a problem with the
offensive line some of those plays he gets to the line and then there's more guys there than last
year or whatever it's not as clear of a path I don't know I'm not but like as close as I can get
to isolating it it looks like the worst year of his career and like clearly worse than last
year another way just is the percentage of runs where he got to the line is not that much
different than last year last year was 44% this year it's 50% as a top
and it was higher than that.
Last year, the line played surprisingly really good.
This year, I think it's been slightly below average.
And there's been the difference between the two is much wider.
I think the difference between what got last year from Henry
and what we're getting this year from Henry.
And I do think that's a problem for the offense.
Fair enough.
Absolutely agree.
All right, let's take a break.
We've got some more stuff to throw at you here,
including Jonathan Taylor and his brutal schedule.
We'll be right back.
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All right, folks, just some injury updates. So Will Campbell, he didn't have a season-ending injury
necessarily.
He didn't have one of these,
oh, man, surgery.
But he might go on IR.
He might miss time.
They might not get him back
until the playoff.
So for the Patriots' sake,
it's possible, just based on what I'm reading right now,
it's possible that they are going to be
without the left side of their offensive line.
I think they'll be allowed to have
substitutions for them.
I don't think they'll have to use three offensive linemen.
But the starting left tackle and left guard
could be out for the rest of the regular season
or close to that, maybe the fantasy season,
for New England.
So that's kind of a bummer.
And Baker Mayfield,
I think it's looking like a sprained AC join
or the preliminary reports.
I don't know what the time table on that is.
Oh, Billy Bowman for the Falcons cornerback.
He tore his Achilles.
That stinks.
Is there anything on Rishie Rice?
No, we think Rishie Rice maybe had cramps,
but he only played 65% of the snaps,
and he, 62% of the snaps,
and he had eight catches, 141 yards on 12 targets.
He's pretty good.
Oh, yeah.
Jake, was there anything else you wanted to get to?
In terms of snaps and stuff?
You're in big topics or whatever before we get to some of the other stuff we were going to mention?
I've got a ton of notes on snaps, which is hilarious if we don't have time for them,
because every other week I'm not prepared because I don't know if I'm going to do it.
This week I get to do it.
Go for it.
We'll rapid fire the others.
Okay.
Tyrone Tracy, 72% snap rate, 23 touches, three or four rushes, running back runs from inside of the 10 with a 75% red zone,
snap rate, he's averaging 113
across his past three games. Are you guys
buying the time and Tracy role has changed?
We're not going to see he's met a singletary?
No.
That's a good question.
But I'm not not buying it. I'm just not sure.
I like that the red zone
look at he's starting to mix in a little bit there.
I'm not buying it just yet.
I think it down to the one yard line or the two yard line.
I think they handy to have in Singletary.
Okay.
Kenneth Gainwell, 52% snap rate,
49% of Jalen Warren.
In the first quarter, it was a little bit more Warren, which is kind of what we saw last week.
But as the game went on, they just went more and more Gainwell, a 65% route rate for Gainwell, six targets, only a 32% route rate for Warren, no targets.
How are we feeling?
Are we nervous about this one at all?
Do we think it shifts back to Warren as the year goes on?
No, it's giving me an upset stomach.
It makes me want to be on the toilet for the rest of the fantasy season, all these committees.
I absolutely hate it.
I hate fantasy football.
But yeah, thank you for bringing that up.
I mean, I'd be nervous.
I'd be more nervous if it wasn't.
Well, I guess I'd say I should be nervous because this has kind of been Arthur Smith's M.O.
As an offensive schemer and play caller for his career.
And then we had a little bit of a run with Jalen Warren getting that more of a worker's role.
So I guess just leaning on that, I should be nervous about Warren rest of the season.
64% snap rate for Kenneth Walker.
That's four straight games.
He's out snapped Sharper day.
We've got more on Walker for you guys later.
There is your boy.
Got more on Walker coming up.
at the time of the DeAndre Swift week 12 fumble so when Swift fumbled before that
it was a 61% snap rate for Swift 39% for Kyle Monagai from that point on it was 63%
Monagai 35% Swift manag I got nine rushes Swift got two Managa out snapped Swift 5 to
1 in the red zone from that point on I've got a couple of charts here it maybe it's
just this one week was a blip on the radar and it'll get back
to Swift after this, but here's the yardage production on a month-to-month basis.
Monongai has more yards per game this month than Swift.
It kind of feels like he's been overtaking him.
This one is the rushing success rate.
So early in the year, Monongai was not running as successfully as Swift.
Lately, he's been better.
And then obviously fumbles two to Swift, zero to Menongai is where we're at with these two on the year.
So something to keep an eye on.
Yep.
You know, that's kind of interesting, though, because I think before this game, it seemed like DeAndre Swift had a stranglehold on the fantasy points here.
Well, in the sense that he's coming off a 21 carry game where Menangai had 12.
The week before, Swift had 13 carries.
Manangai had seven.
Swift is playing more on passing down.
Swift, when the team's trailing in the fourth quarter, which they usually are, Swift would be in the game there.
so I didn't really feel like
Monongai
was making inroads
I felt like he was for a bit
and then Swift reclaimed
Swift was playing very well
before this game
so I'm interested
I mean look
I thought you were wrong
about Gainwell
on Sunday morning
and you nailed it
I'm not gonna necessarily doubt you
but I didn't see this
trend I just think that
this most recent
I don't know
I think this most recent game
is kind of
clouding the picture a little bit
before this game
I feel like Swift was clearly ahead of Monongai.
Menongai's been really, really good.
I've talked about him at LingFel and Beyond the Box score.
I think people have a good idea where I'm out with this.
And just everything from the coaches following that huge game that he had when he filled in
and carried them to victory, from that point on, they've just been like hot hand.
And people have been like, no, they're not going hot hand.
It's Swift is the clearly back.
I'm like, well, I think he's just had the hot hand.
Like, he came back and played that first game back.
I think that this backfield is up for grabs,
and one of the backs has been dealing with some, like,
groin hip injuries,
like he's been on the injury report for three straight weeks.
I would lean towards the rookie continuing to get more involved,
even if Swift is the lead back and stays healthy the rest of the rest here.
I do think Menonga is going to keep getting involved
and has a potential to pop off for games like this if things break his way.
Yes, fair.
70% rat rate for Colson Loveland,
highest this year in a game not,
affected by Cole Commet injury.
It was 58% last week.
So really love to see that.
I saw we're going to get the big game in the first half.
I really did.
He's so good.
He just didn't have another catch after that time.
Yeah, he's so freaking good.
I don't know that it's going to matter for fantasy this year
because I do think they're going to go really run heavy to close things out here,
looking at their schedule and the weather and everything.
But he's really, really good.
And if there is a commit injury or anything,
or even like a wide receiver injury, I think that he would be somebody you can maybe
start week to week and gives you upside.
Harold Fanon Jr., another rookie tied in here.
We haven't heard much from lately.
I don't think that that's a him issue.
I think that's a Cleveland Brown issue.
33% target share this week,
81% route rate.
That's the best in a game that David Injoku has played.
He has a 20% target share in every game since week five.
So that's just a note for probably dynasty players or like deeper leagues,
tied in premium, stuff like that.
He's been really, really consistent.
Harold Fan and Jr.
I watched that day.
Brown's just wanted to get a good.
feel for Sanders offense. He is such a phenomenal player. He had two plays after the
cast that were just very few tight ends the NFL can make it. I thought you were talking about
Sanders when you said. No, no, not Sanders, not Sanders. The very few players in the NFL can make
it fan. And I just feel like I like that he may be something down the stretch because he's
there, he's provided this like outlet for Sanders on these third downs where it's like,
hell chip and release. And it's like Sanders is not processing the defense at all. And he's
there in a long situation. So he's just going to check down to fan.
a lot, I think.
Those look like against all odds throws to me, brother.
Against all odds.
A third and ten completion.
Jemir gives some really interesting notes here.
Just after last week having his career high and snaps, he topped that again.
He had 54% of the lion's offensive touches, which is the highest of any player last week.
It's the first game for Gibbs above 50%.
Here's his red zone percentages, 59% of the.
running back runs. You can see it's been going up year over year.
41% of the red zone opportunities runs or targets for anybody on the team that's
been going up year over year. That puts him in the same range on the year as Christian
McCaffrey, 53%, Jonathan Taylor, 46%. Eric Henry 41%, Ashungentie, 44 gives us it 41%.
So he's already been running back won an EPA outside of the red zone by a wide margin.
If you look at like, here's, these are splits from outside of the red zone.
he has 10 scrimmage touchdowns outside the red zone 2,900 scrimmage yards outside of the red zone since this start 2024.
So that's like right up there with Saquan Barclay on 100 fewer touches.
He's been by far the best weapon outside of the red zone.
And now he's getting all this concentrated usage in the red zone on one of the best offenses.
So it definitely looks like, I mean, if we drafted right now, he's live to go 101 is basically where I'm out with Gibbs.
As he should.
I mean, first of all, their offensive line is creating better than they have.
they're starting to really mesh, at least they have in the last few weeks.
There are so many runs against the Giants where he's just untouched the second level.
And if you can get a player like him untouched the second level, the way that he accelerates
and the way that he eliminates angles from the safeties and the linebackers through his acceleration
is unlike anything that we've seen on tape or as fans since CJ2K.
This is Chris Johnson, again, over the same, like the same type of player, early Chris Johnson
when he was breaking off for 2,000-yard seasons.
I don't see any reason why it would slow down.
Like the Lions need to win football games.
They're competing for the division.
He's the best player on their team, on their offense.
He needs to be on the field.
CJ 2K on a good offense with 12 targets.
Right.
Yeah, exactly.
Got a couple Patriots notes.
One of them sucks.
One of them mostly sucks, too, honestly.
But it's kind of okay.
The kind of okay one is Trayvion and Henderson at a 69% snap rate outside of the red zone.
And 17 of running back, 17.
of 20 running back rushes outside of the red zone.
This is what you don't want to hear, though.
42% snap right in the red zone.
Only one of five Patriot running back runs in the red zone
with Robynne Stevenson back.
And if you didn't think that was bad enough,
all that Stefan Diggs hype that I pushed last week,
not looking great with Kishon Booty back,
85% rat rate for booty, only 54% for Diggs.
So that was one of his lowest marks of the year.
After being a season high last week,
we'll keep an eye on it, but not a good development.
No.
And wide receivers continue to be disappointing against the Cincinnati Bengals.
And one of the reasons, two of the reasons, they're so bad against the run, and they're so bad against tight ends.
All that production goes to tight ends.
All right.
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Anything else, sir?
Yeah, people ask if Tudan is dropable.
It wasn't a good week for the Tudan usage, 21% SnapShare.
So that was his lowest since week six.
The ankle injury did not look good when it happened.
It looked like it could be serious.
So I don't know what to do with,
injury reporting out of Jacksonville it sucks because it seemed like he was fine but then he barely
played at all it was like pretty much all ET in early in the game only 21% snap rate
also jaggs relevant 69% route rate for breton strange so right away he was in a fairly significant
role and i think he's going to be a really important piece for them he really helps the run game too
we finally saw him get some explosive plays uh back in their life this week last note is christian
watson 91% route rate for christian watson that's his highest rate of the year by far 40% first
Street target rate for Watson.
He's over two yards brought run this year, which is where he's always at.
So, like, it seems like he's back and healthy.
Man, there's a lot of other injuries in Green Bay.
So just wanted to make that note.
Listen, we've got the playoffs coming up.
So for a question, like, is Bejel Tootin dropable?
It really depends on your record.
I mean, you just can't afford to hold on to, you maybe you can't.
But for many of you, you just can't afford to hold on to lottery,
tickets or even guys who are going to be in a committee, if you need to win now, if you need
to win next week, I don't know that we can confidently tell you to start Bejel Tootin, sure, there's
a chance that he gets his role, you know, the role we saw two weeks ago and the ankle was
the reason why he had a limited role, but we just don't know.
So I think the rules are different going into week 13 than they were going into week eight
or whatever.
This is not a criticism of Bejel Tootin or anything, but just you have to win.
If you have to win, then you have to make drastic decisions sometimes.
So go for it.
I have a few snap count things.
John Mechie and Adonai Mitchell.
They both played about 85% of the snaps.
Metschi had a big game.
And Chimari Dike, or Chimre Dekay, played 80% of the snaps.
He's now done that three times this year, and he has eight, three, and seven targets
for 16.4, 1.5, and 15.4 fantasy points.
That's Chimray D.K.
So in two of three games where he's had 80% or more of the snaps,
those would be without Calvin Ridley.
and in this case without Ellicayle Manor,
he's come through, he's been good.
Mike Gassicki out snapped Noah Fant.
Noah Fent barely played, 18 snaps.
And Drew Sample out snapped Mike Gassiki.
So I picked up Noah Fant.
It's been quite a bit of fap on him in a must-win game.
And whoops, someone asked about dropping Darius Slayton,
who I really think, you know, had some appeal.
But it seemed like they were splitting Hodgins and Slayton in two receiver sets.
Slatern's hurt.
That's the problem.
He's playing hurt.
Well, I don't know if he's getting that rollback.
I think, yes, you can drop Slayton because his snap count was down with Hodgins there for the Giants.
Aaron Jones was interesting.
I was really disappointed at the running back splits.
Nine carries for Jones, eight for Mason.
And can Aaron Jones give me a 15-carry game for once?
Doesn't matter.
So, well, it does matter because, you know, he's an efficient running back and lead running backs matter.
Mason, Jordan Mason, Jordan Mason only played 12 snaps.
Aaron Jones played 66% of the snaps
This day and age
where I'm having stomach issues
because of all the committees
that's a pretty good split
so why were the carries the way they were
Mason got six of his eight carries on one possession
They had two carries as a team
in the second half
These two running back carries
So look is it great for Aaron Jones
No I don't think it's as bad
as what it looked like on paper
is what I'm trying to say
He still dominated the work in that backfield
Is that now
what we would consider to be, well, probably not the word.
That's the third worst offense in fantasy.
I don't know.
They're bad.
Raiders worst.
Thomas can probably help us out.
Who's after Graham?
I don't even think they made it inside the 30.
They didn't make it inside the 30 old game.
It didn't seem like that.
Don't, you know, I didn't look into that, but I really don't think they did.
Oh, my God.
Another offense that struggled, the Saints.
We need to mention 74% snap rate.
for rookie Devon Neal.
He had 11 PPR points in a game where he had seven carries for 18 yards and no touchdowns.
He's still on PPR points because he's kind of got.
Yeah, he gets a lot of, I mean, 69.
This is a little six seven type thing.
Yeah, sure, yeah.
609% route rate.
Like he gets the targets inside.
So it doesn't really even matter that much he does on the ground game if you're playing
PPR.
And I'll just finish with this.
Running backs who averaged 35 or more snaps per game over the last five seasons,
including this season, 35 or more snaps per game.
with a minimum of 80 carries.
22, 22, 24, 24.
This year, 19 running backs
are currently averaging 35 or more snaps per game.
Nausea, heartburn, indigestion,
that's the peptobisble song.
All right, let's...
I'm dying at this comment from Forrest L7W
said Schaefer started clerks.
Yes.
Yes, that is a great call.
I was thinking about clerks the other day is
I would never
ever recommend that movie to someone.
Why?
I just don't think there's a chance in hell
that more than one in 10 people today
in 2025 find clerks funny.
I found it funny.
You mean from that standpoint?
It's so niche.
And it's like out of that standpoint.
I didn't know where you were going to this.
I thought you meant from like the cancel culture standpoint.
You mean just from the niche side of it.
Like I'm sure those,
I haven't watched in a while.
I'm sure those jokes won't fly today in 2025, but I think it's like take the neat,
that side out of it.
I think a lot of people would still find it very, very funny.
I can't even, I was just about to like recall two of my favorite moments that movie.
I literally cannot say them on there.
So I'm just not going to.
No.
All right, buy or sell from Kelly.
Chip Kelly's dismissal will be a notable positive for Ashton Genties fantasy prospects.
Sell, sell.
Sell as hard as I can sell.
I mean, like, look, I saw some breakdowns.
Ted, Ted wins one of my favorite guys on Twitter for breaking down film, and he covers the Raiders
extensively.
And he showed some stuff that's eye-opening.
Like, there's third down situations where the Raiders are running a two-man route combination
where it's two verticals on the outside.
And when Gino Smith hits the top of his drop, there's just nothing possible because the two guys
are running verts and there's nothing.
It's like there's weird stuff going on in their past game.
But their run game should have been at its best with Kelly.
Putting anyone in over Kelly is going to be bad for their, or,
neutral for their run game.
Their run game has nothing, like their lack of success, and my mind has very little
to do with Kelly and almost all to do with the single worst offensive line in the NFL.
It's hopeless.
The ovens line is hopeless.
When you have an O line that bad, it's hopeless.
I live this.
I know this.
I'm a Giants fan.
I covered this team.
We've had hopeless offensive lines at times that generate nothing in the run game, in the
past game, scoring, anything.
When you have a hopeless O line, it's over.
It doesn't matter what coach you bring in, fire this guy, fire that guy.
guy. There's no talent on the O line. I don't know when Colton Miller's coming back. I don't know if he is. I don't know when Powers Johnson is coming back. I don't know if he is hopeless. It's hopeless. There might be good games because he's really good. And, you know, like he can make big plays. But outside of that, no, I don't want to go there at all. Guys, yes, agreed on that. He's so expensive. He might randomly score sometimes. This is going to surprise you. First of all, he has one carry all year of more than 20 yards. So he hasn't been explosive. But you might be surprised to know, Ashton Genty per game is RB,
15 in non-PPR and half-PPR, and RB13 in full PPR.
Yeah.
Since his horrible first three games,
he has averaged 17.5 ppr fantasy points per game.
We're talking about Ashton Jensi, like he's a huge bust.
I would call him a mild bust.
I'm not saying, no, he's not a huge bust.
He scored a lot of touchdowns, right?
It's all just touchdowns.
No, it's catches.
It's catches.
And catches.
It's touchdowns.
He's used a good amount.
Yeah, because they have no off.
They have to use an extension of their run games.
the short passes. I'm a little concerned
the catch has come down because they've thrown the
ball an unusually high amount the last
three of the last four games, 39 or more
pass attempts and he's had a
target share of 20% or higher
in three straight games. That's
not super repeatable unless you're
Christian McCaffrey or Devon A-chan basically
but he is really
involved and he does have tough
matchups coming up but
it's you know it doesn't even matter
like they can't run the ball on anyone
so I actually think that
Genty is a little bit ahead in full PPR of Barclay and Henry.
Am I crazy?
A little bit ahead rest of season, you mean?
Yeah, if you're, who would you?
I would, I would say it's a fair question regarding Barclay.
I would still take Henry.
The schedule is so much easier.
I would take those guys without question.
I think there's way more upside.
It is touchdowns.
He has seven touchdowns in the past eight games.
And I think that that's like wholly unsustainable.
and that's like this
so what I'm saying basically is like
this is kind of the best version of him
like I think for fantasy right now
what we're getting and it's okay
it's fine but like
the best version for those guys
could be much much better
because those offenses can be good
the best version they
they can and Henry has the bangles
in two of the next three games
so I think the matchups are so good for Henry
and the mattress are awful for the Raiders too
aren't they awful for Berkeley though too
no
but like he scored okay he's he faced Denver he scored 15.3 fantasy points he faced
Cleveland yesterday scored 24.8 fantasy points he faced Jacksonville they have a really good
run defense he scored 19.9 ppr fantasy points yeah I know that he scored fantasy points I don't
think he's I mean his touchdown pays during like the game just the series sampling is one per and
I just think that's like ridiculously unsustainable if I were setting a projection and touchdowns
for him each week it'd be like 0.25 or 0.35 or something like that right but
Barclay has the same issue, and Genthi, at least his catching passes.
I'll definitely agree with you on Henry.
I'm with you, Adam.
I might consider Genti over Bargley at this point.
His floor is probably pretty similar to Barclay on a per game basis,
but I also think that there's much higher chance of him getting rug pulled.
We saw him get freaking crushed in this past game.
That's been happening over and over and over,
and if the season just goes down the toilet, like, I just don't know how long you do that.
Maybe they just do it all year.
That's a good question.
Yeah, I don't know about that's a fair.
I want, at the end of the year,
I want players on teams that are playing for something
if I can, ideally, you know?
Yeah.
Yeah, for sure.
That's fair.
All right, this is from Maddie.
By herself, Daniel Jones,
reverts to, you know what?
I'm going to combine Maddie and whoever asked me
about Jonathan Taylor, Lou.
What do you guys think about the Colts offense, essentially?
Because they finish with Houston at Jacksonville,
at Seattle,
and then Jacksonville in week 17.
Jacksonville, terrible past defense,
really good run defense.
Houston, great at everything.
Seattle, pretty much great at everything,
better against the run.
San Francisco, horrible past defense,
but pretty good against the run,
but, you know, I'm not sure I bite it.
Not like the other guys,
but four of Jonathan Taylor's next five opponents
ranked top seven in yards per carry
allowed to running backs.
And he hasn't actually been that great
in games against those types of opponents.
Yeah.
There have been five of them.
Two huge games, one game, and two crappy games, including yesterday at Kansas City.
So, Jacob, what's your confidence level in the Colts offense down the stretch?
Not super high.
They're also dogs in three of these five games, which I think is relevant for Jonathan Taylor.
I think it's much better if they're playing with a lead.
I've got some Daniel Jones stats that will make you feel better, Dan particularly.
Like, I feel like for the first month of the season there,
it felt like we're taking crazy pills, you know.
But lately it's kind of all come crashing down.
So throws of 10 or more air yards first month,
63% complete for Daniel Jones since then 49%.
15% off target rate in the first month since then it's 22%.
So not as accurate down the field.
Under pressure, this is the one that really shocked me.
He's playing so great under pressure in the first month.
49% success rate on under pressure drawbacks in the first month.
down to 35% since then 10% off target rate in the first month is up to 18% nearly doubled 8% sack to pressure rate in the first month that was the one that blew my mind that was like top of the league and that's not who he's been in his career it's 21% since then during his time as a member of the giants it was 21% so right in line with what we've seen since the first month on non play action dropbacks he had a 57% success rate in the first month of the season he was above
50% in every game across the first month.
So I think that's rather than because the play action game has really boosted things for this offense.
Shane Stuyken's done a phenomenal job of layering things off of the run game to find spots to attack.
But when not, when just like straight drop that game, like what does it look like?
It was actually still pretty good in the first month.
And so like all this stuff was leading us to ask questions.
Like is Daniel Jones like actually good like fine?
You know, is it not just the handholding?
Is he actually doing enough outside of that to like warrant optimism for Jones?
And like I think that's where a lot of people landed.
His like dynasty perceived value is shot through the freaking roof.
But lately it's kind of looking like the guy that we know.
So I said it was 57% success rate on non-play action drawbacks of the first month.
Since then it's 49%, which is a pretty decent drop in terms of success rate,
28% against Kansas City success rate on non-play action dropbacks.
There's only 37% the game before that against Atlanta.
So that's just two games.
I don't want to overreact,
but like everything lately looks more like the guy that we know.
And I just do wonder,
especially if we get into games where they're not able to play with a lead.
When you're playing with a lead,
you can do more pre-snap motion,
you can do more action and stuff like that.
If they're having to play from behind
and not able to lean on the play action game and the run game as much,
and it's in Daniel Jones's hands,
I'm pretty nervous is where I've landed.
Look at this throw here.
Look at this image.
What was he thinking?
This was one of a few just awful throws he made into coverage that should have been intercepted.
Well, he's predetermining the passes.
He still leading the NFL and first read target percentage.
So it's just kind of, you know, if it's not there, it's going to look bad.
There was one that was even worse, the one that he like threw into three chiefs defenders
and they ran into each other as the only reason he intercepted.
That was just a predetermined.
throw pretty snap to post the problem is like i'm i i'll start by saying this i'm more concerned
with taylor living up to his expectations he's built for himself than jones down the stretch
pretty much because of the way you broke it down at him three of those defensive matchups over
the last of the season are bad past defense i guess on paper jaguars are a bad past defense
that remains to be seen because it does depend on the coordinator in my mind i really like what
the steelers did to jones i really like what spagnollo did to jones it's very different
than what a lot of these other defenses have done.
It's put a lot of guys on the line of scrimmage,
draw and mix,
like there was a play on third and three where the Colts needed it to win the game.
It was the game-changing play for the chiefs where Spags did something so awesome.
He had his entire defense rotate pre-snap to one side of the field
right at the end of the play clock as it's wanting out 10 second, nine second.
And Jones is like trying to make checks.
He's trying to audible because obviously the play that Shane Seichen drew up for him
and he's a first-re guy wasn't there.
And so he's doing that.
And then the clock's winding down, winding down.
And swag just rotates right back into what he had at the start of the snaps.
So Jones is now like, oh, crap, I just made this check based on what I saw.
But he's rotated back there.
He snaps the ball.
And it's like he has nothing to do.
And he throws something off target and he misses that third and three.
It depends.
If defense coordinators are going to play more aggressive against Jones, I think that's the recipe
to stop this offense.
dictate to him.
Don't let Stuyken dictate to you.
You dictate to him.
And I don't know how many defense are going to do.
do that, though.
Like, maybe the Jags will do that.
But I still think I have more confidence somehow in Jones than Taylor because I think
those run defenses that you outline that Taylor has rest of the season, that scares me.
Yeah, but he's Jonathan Taylor.
I mean, he's in such a good year.
It can't just be matchups.
The guy was on pace for 2,000 yards, I think.
I don't think he still is.
But he just scored 49.6 fantasy points against Atlanta.
You go look at Jamir Gibbs' game log.
There's some bad ones in there.
I mean, Taylor, I think Jamie said it.
So I want to be clear when I say that because it's going to sound bad.
I want to make what I was trying to say clear.
What I meant is the expectation of what he's built for himself.
He's building stuff this weekly.
Like, if he's in your lineup, you're winning your lineup.
I think we're going to start to see that fall off down the track.
Yeah, I think it's basically what we talked about last night.
Jamie said that or he said, I remember who it was.
But I wouldn't rule it out because, you know, he is so explosive that he could just carry your team.
But I think if you're looking at your lineup and you got Jonathan Taylor, there's nothing you can do about it.
But you might, you might not have incredible production.
Jones I yeah it's it's troubling there were two plays in this game man that it was I don't know if you're talking about the one to Josh Downs on third and four they would have set up one where he threw like a little out I don't remember who was two but the two chiefs defenders ran into each other there's only reason they intercept it like the one guy tried to intercept and the other guy just like third and four throw to Josh Downs would have set up first and goal and his miscommunication Jones threw the outside downs went inside then they fell for a field goal then I don't remember the screen pass to Tyler Warren oh no that's
That one, he just rushed that one.
He just threw that so early.
Yeah, maybe.
But the screen pass of Tyler Warren,
Trent McDuffie made such a great tackle.
That may have been a touchdown.
That was cool.
He settled for a field goal there.
And let me show you this last play of the game for the Colts in overtime.
They have third down and one near midfield.
Look at Chris Jones number 95.
So he swim moves the center.
The right guard,
not going to be on your left,
is going to come and help him out.
And then the left guard takes number 32.
So you have number 23 there, go right in and destroy Jonathan Taylor for a loss.
But it was really Chris Jones, who took the center out of the play, basically.
And Chris Jones was so good.
He had a great game.
Yeah.
Yeah.
That's what I wanted to end with is, like, the chiefs often make fun of opponents for, like,
this is your Super Bowl, you know, against us or whatever.
But, like, this was the Chief Super Bowl kind of.
like they really like Chris Jones like gave it all they gave it all yeah um and as a
we saw like them completely dominate the ball so they're only 50 offensive plays for the
colts in this game that's a season though they're averaging 62 the chiefs had 91 plays
that's the most of any game all season by far there are only two other games above 80 so like
kareem hunt had 33 touches that's approaching the total number of colts plays like the chiefs
we're just like we've got to win this at all costs and it
That means we're just going to dominate ball control
and give Cremont to fall over and over and over.
And it's tough to get anything going offensively
when you're in that kind of a game.
All right, so we got two and a half to three minutes left here.
Napoleon has our last buyer sell.
He says, sell Ken Walker the third?
I think I'm ready to kind of buy it here.
Boy, this guy, I hope some of you can see his runs.
He was incredible in this game,
and it wasn't just taking advantage of it.
I don't even know if Tennessee's a good matchup anymore.
they probably are, but he created so many yards from himself. He's so fast. I think the momentum
is really moving into Ken Walker's favor. Very advantageous stuff here, involved in the passing
game. There is, of course, the Charbonnet issue. It's not going away, but I don't think it's as big
of an issue as it once was. You guys feel that, too? Yeah, what I've got on the screen here is just the
snap rates over the past four weeks. You can see game by game. He's out Snap Sharbonin every game,
and it kind of seems like it's leaning more and more towards Walker. And then,
to the Walker, like, Sharpenet Red Zone split note,
he already has more touches from inside the 10-yard line this month in November
than he did it in September and October combined.
That's good.
46% red zone snap rate, 55% snap rate inside of the 10-yard line following the buy
compared to 30% before that.
So it feels like he should be, could be scoring touchdowns very easily.
I know the Sharbonate stuff is frustrating.
And I've got no clue how it will go on an individual game.
you know, how many snaps are there inside of the 10-yard line on a game-to-game basis,
like two to five or something like that?
Like, you just don't know how that's going to play out.
But the underlying usage stuff doesn't suggest that it's like clearly Charbonnet's roll or
anything like that.
In fact, it's looked better and better for Walker as the years gone on.
Okay.
I still think that same thing I said about Tracy and Singletary.
If it's at the two or the one-yard line, I think it's likely to be Charbonnet.
I agree with that.
But I think if Walker can just catch a few passes a game,
they set up a beautiful screen to him,
I think it was a 29-yard game.
If he can just give us, you know, two to three catches,
then it won't matter that much.
You'll have a higher floor.
He won't kill you, you know?
He won't single-digit point you, basically.
Good point.
So, and then, you know, it's not a great schedule.
So maybe he just took advantage of a good matchup,
but you can get to week 17 at Carolina.
That's pretty good.
At Atlanta and week 14 is pretty good, too.
yeah all right i'm not selling there you go do you guys have any jameson williams thoughts
oh crap i've been asking about you don't ask about jama a lot i may lose i may lose my gay team
leave because he had three targets and all of them hit his hands and this literally was the
best matchup on the slate of anything like it was this man coverage giant with no one to cover
him and i don't know i don't have any thoughts on what happened he's a really frustrating
fantasy player jacob who could look this up really quickly so i
I had highlighted that there,
Jamo is at his best,
seems to make his big plays
when Jared Goff is under center
and using play action.
They were trailing in this game.
So I wonder if they just were in shotgun more
and he just doesn't get,
he just doesn't get targeted as much,
it's throughout his career as yards per outrun,
well, not his first year,
but the last three seasons,
yards per out run,
much better under center,
much better play action.
And maybe the game just didn't work out that way
for them. I mean, they could barely run the ball.
Jermere Gibbs only ran for like 200 yards.
Yeah.
L.O.L.
Yeah, I'll look that up real quick.
This was something Dan and I hit on, I like really dug into the specific splits,
trying to predict if Ben Johnson, you know, him leaving means less play action in some of
this stuff, like who's going to be hit the hardest?
And it was clearly Jameson Williams is what the data had shown.
I haven't looked into it for this year specifically.
Yeah, I did.
And it was when Dan came and took over.
I haven't looked, I haven't like seen the updated numbers.
But yeah, I mean, his big plays in the last few games, most of them, I think, have been on play action.
So 26% play action rate this week.
So they still used a lot of center, a lot of play action.
Their shotgun rate was 48%.
So I think that's a little bit higher than normal, but still under center on more than half of their plays in week 12.
I'm just to say it was a bad game.
Just a bad game.
And St. Brown was in the zone.
Gibbs was heavily targeted.
He doesn't usually get this many targets, Jemir Gibbs.
He didn't get...
Jameson and Williamson didn't get any of the over-the-middle
catch-and-run targets this week.
His three targets were two hitches and one out-rout.
And he needs to catch it.
But even if he did catch those,
he would have had three for 23 or something like that, you know?
If he's not getting those over-the-middle plays,
it is...
This can happen.
This is something I pointed out.
last week is like for all the James and Williams stuff that feels really good,
he had a 13% first retarget rate last week in his big game.
And it's like he's not really a big part of the offense.
His numbers are all better without Laporteur there.
He does get more targets and everything.
But still, like, the reason he's been getting there for fantasy lately is because he's
hit on these long catch and run plays.
This week, he didn't even get an opportunity.
I'm sure he ran some of those routes and just didn't get targeted on him.
But I told you, I don't mean to do this because I don't want to be egotistical.
but I told you all what was going to happen.
I said I picked him up in a league
when someone dropped him going into his buy.
I sat him three straight weeks.
I'm going to start him in week 12.
You know what's going to happen.
I told you all.
So it's your fault, not Jamos.
Great news.
Joe Burrow will play on Thanksgiving.
Unfortunately, T. Higgins will not.
He's been ruled out with a concussion,
but Jamar Chase will be back.
So get ready to activate Joe Burrow.
Although I think, I think,
I'm curious if you cracks the top 12.
Probably will.
I don't think he's going to crack.
like the top eight is just my guess uh haven't looked at anything yet but that's just a guess
against baltimore without t higgins no higgins first game back you know we don't know how mobile
he's going to be we'll see all right thanks to jacob and dan appreciate y'all hanging around for a long
show today and we will talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today
Everyone who comes into this clinic is a mystery.
We don't know what we're looking for.
Their bodies are the scene of the crime.
Their symptoms in history are clues.
You saved her life.
We're doctors and with detectives.
I kind of love it if I'm being honest.
Solve the puzzle. Save the patient.
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