Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Boxscore: Bijan Robinson struggles, trusting Deshaun Watson, Keaton Mitchell outlook & more! (11/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 6, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Is Tee Higgins back? What happened to Gabe Davis? The crew recaps Bills-Bengals on Sunday Night Football (2:55). Then, we discuss Daniel Jones's injury (10:55) and whether you can roster any Giants player outside Saquon Barkley. Next, we dive into advanced stats (15:30) on Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith, what to make of the Seahawks backfield, and Keaton Mitchell as a waiver wire pickup (30:20). We answer your big topics: what to make of the young stars (42:00) emerging at tight end, Bijan Robinson (49:20) expectations, Tony Pollard vs James Conner (54:20), plus more! SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What is going on with B. John Robinson? Is Tony Pollard worse than James Connor rest of season? Is the tight end position like super deep, really great? Everyone has a great tight end all of a sudden. I'm not buying it, people. And did you know that as we sit here right now, on November 6th, the Buffalo Bills are out of the playoffs.

It is beyond the box score. I'm Adam Azer with Jacob Gibbs and Dan Schneier. We have advanced stats from Simple People. Good afternoon. It's afternoon. Good afternoon, Jacob and Dan. What's up? How's it going?

I'm having a good day. How about you guys? Good. I'm doing well. Jacob, how about you? Excited to be here. And you know what? Based on what I ate this morning,

I have an Italian food tip for fake Italian Dan Schneier. Italian food tip for you. No, it's not. Can we clear this up? It's not fake Italian. It's wannabe Italian. Whatever it is. It's a wannabe Italian Dan Schneier.

Italian food tip for you and for everyone else. Real quick, before we get into the games, I'm going to give you the playoff matchup So you pick a winner We'll start in the NFC Eagles with a bye Lions hosting the Vikings Lions

The slaughter 49ers hosting the Cowboys 49ers, they always crush the Cowboys It's another slaughter Saints hosting the Seahawks Yeah, Saints Saints gets the Seahawks. Yeah. Saints. Saints get the home field advantage, which I don't even like.

But Taysom Hill will get like two touchdowns in that game. All right. The 4-5 matchup. The Dolphins hosting the Steelers. Dolphins. Steelers are in the playoffs. Wow. Dolphins, yeah. The Jaguars hosting the Browns.

That is interesting. Oh. Yeah. I'll go Jags. I'll go Browns. Yeah, I'll go Browns. Well, it depends. Current Browns with Deshaun Watson. We're going to talk about him. We all watched Deshaun

Watson. Or Dan and I did. He looked horrible. So I'll take the Jags. And then your 2-7 matchup. I need it in an upset. The poor Ravens get the Cincinnati Bengals right now. It won't stay that way, you'd have to figure. But Ravens hosting the Bengals.

Wow. I'm still going Ravens at home, but wow. I'm going Bengals. Bengals are the best team in the NFL. I am picking them to win the Super Bowl. Whoa. I like the boldness of that.

I mean, look, they're healthy. They're great. They have the best combination of offense and defense. They don't have the best offense. They don't have the best defense. They have the best combination of offense and defense. Yeah, I don't know, man. I'd have to give it to the Chiefs,

the team with the best quarterback in the NFL, and maybe the best defense in the NFL. I mean, like, he's okay. But yeah. All right. All right. Let's get to the Chiefs, the team with the best quarterback in the NFL and maybe the best defense in the NFL? I mean, like, he's okay, but yeah. All right, all right, let's get to the game. The Bengals beat the Bills 24-18 en route to the Super Bowl. They had the ball for 36 minutes and 38 seconds, so the Bills just did not have a lot of possession here, less than 24 minutes of possession.

Gabe Davis with no catches on two targets. Jacob, what are your major takeaways fantasy-wise from this game? Yeah, the Gabe Davis usage was frustrating. Last week, they used him in line a lot more. A lot of short yardage stuff went to him as the first read a lot. And so I thought that might be a role change with Dawson Knox out of the picture and Kincaid, less of a slot guy um using those kind of short targets but same back right back to the same old um in week nine 10 yard average route depth 18 yard average depth of target no catches um so that that's really frustrating to see because it was a good matchup for him also frustrating on the bill side james cook had an amazing matchup and it's like

you know linda fournette is looming this is like this spot you know if we're ever going to get it from james cook um and it's just the same thing like not nearly enough usage for him to be fantasy relevant so i think we're pretty much done with him which is tough because running back is we're running out of options i don't know if i'm done with him i just think that this game script they're not going to be getting blown out. What were they down? 24 to 10 or something like that. So they couldn't run the ball. And like I said, the time of possession was really low.

He had four catches, which was nice. I think he's exited the must-start territory, unfortunately. The touchdowns are hard to come by. The catches are unpredictable. But they just didn't run the ball really at all. I mean, Fournette, I don't think he was, he wasn't, he was active.

Did he play, did he even get a snap? No, that's, that's my thing with cook. Those, the route participation just isn't there. Like the opportunity to catch passes just isn't there.

And that's where we thought his fantasy value was going to be, especially the upside case for cook was like through the receiving. Um, and like, I think a game script like this should set up well for him, but no, they prefer Latavius Murray on those blocking situations. Yeah, they got down to the three-yard line

or inside the three. Josh Allen had the touchdown run in the first quarter and Latavius Murray was in. I wanted to say this, Dan, about Gabe Davis. So yeah, as Jacob mentioned, I was really interested to see if they would continue using him as a more short area guy.

But no, he went back to the old Gabe Davis. And the Bengals, I mentioned this on the Starter Sit episode, the commanders of the team that we talk about, they always get beat by the deep ball. The Bengals are basically second worst coming into this game. Teams throw deep on the Bengals. They came into this game with the most air yards per pass attempt against in the NFL. I think they were giving up the second most completions of 20 or more air yards. Well, I thought this was an interesting matchup because Josh Allen has really struggled there since hurting his shoulder. And in this game, he was 0 for 4 on pass attempts of 20 or more air yards.

And in his last four games, he's 3 for 20 for 86 yards on those pass attempts. So that's why I have almost no faith in Gabe Davis unless he's doing what he did last week and he didn't do what he did last week. Yeah, I think you nailed it. That was one of the better Acer stats we've gotten in a long time. So well done there. But I think the disappointment

is just a stab, people. It's not that big of a deal. All right. Thank you. Thanks. I like that. Um, uh, yeah, look, the frustration begins with Gabe Davis. It's what Jacob said. We saw him line up tight splits last couple of weeks around the line of scrimmage around the tight end, and that's going to lead to easier targets. We didn't see a lot of that in this game. And I think ultimately when I looked at this game, I had a misread of this game because I thought it'd be more of a shootout. And then I looked back at some things and I was like, wait a second, Cincinnati, a really good game plan against Josh Allen last year in the playoffs. And I believe that they just have a good

feel for how to take away what Josh Allen likes to do. And that impacted the whole game. But there is one positive to take out of this. And it's my boy. It's Dalton Kincaid, who was, I believe, 10 for 81 in this game. I love Dalton. I do too, yeah. 10 for 81 on 11 targets. Been calling for him for weeks. They're finally getting him involved.

Now, this game was a little bit more of what I had seen in the early Kincaid days, which is like too much of the round line of scrimmage stuff. I still think he can win intermediate, and they're not giving him the opportunity just yet, but there were a couple of routes where I saw him isolated one-on-one against the linebacker.

And he had really good moves to beat that linebacker, really good releases off the line of scrimmage. And so he's somebody who's going to win constantly against whoever they throw at him. In my opinion, a man coverage, there's just not many people who can defend him and he has a good quarterback.

So I really like him rest of season to me. he's in the top five mix at tight end, at least until Dawson Knox comes back. 98% route participation for Kincaid this week, which is by far the best. It was up from 85% last week. Yeah, he had basically the biggest play of the game too. Unfortunately, though, it was a fumble when they were driving. But a great game for him.

Top five is a slam dunk,, but a great game for him. Top five is a slam dunk, I think, right now for him. I would say tight end three for me until Knox is back ahead of Laporta, but right there with Laporta, I mean, they're very similar right now. I'm not missing anybody, am I? Kelsey Andrews, Kincaid for me until Knox.

And then what happens when Knox comes back? I just don't know. Obviously, using different personnel groupings now, but he's playing so well. Can you really go back to, you know, the good old, the old days with Knox? We'll have, that's a conversation maybe for later when we talk tight ends. Jacob, what do we need to know

about what the Bengals did yesterday with T Higgins with a big game and Jamar Chase with a rare bad game? Yeah, I wouldn't worry about Chase. But yeah, for your T higgins fantasy manager that was obviously exciting they used him in the short intermediary a little bit more than they had been um i'm i don't have his first read data yet but i would expect it's the highest data point that he's had all year so that's really good because it's been

a very disappointing season for t higgins I think he might be the most disappointing fantasy player out there. And I think that maybe part of that had to do with injury, and then I think Burrow's injury early in the year affected things as well. But going into this game, he was one of the worst PFF-graded wide receivers in the entire NFL. So it's really good to get some positive data points on Tee Higgins. Yeah, he's an easy—oh, sorry, go ahead. Go, go, go. I was going to say, he's an easy. Oh, sorry. Go ahead. Go,

Yeah. I was going to say he's an E. I mean, it might be too late, but it might not be. I think he's a buy target right now. I mean, you can call it a buy high, but I think there's just so many extenuating factors that led to his

slow start. The ones Jacob brought up, the offense, not being able to run a full playbook because Burrow wasn't healthy. And then Higgins, his injury himself. I thought he looked just from the eye test, the healthiest he's looked by far this season on the one slant that he almost took to the house in

the red zone. Yeah. He had a lot of juice on that. And the fact of the matter is this, they're going to going to always use extra attention to take away Jamar chase. This is why T Higgins was so consistent as a fantasy factor last year for large stretches of the season. And I think we could be reaching that exact, you know, scenario again,

moving forward, uh, outside of some games against the Ravens defense. Okay. Well done T Higgins and Joe Mixon. You're just going to continue to start them. You'll deal with the yards per carry. Uh, he faced a struggling run defense and ran 14 times for 37 yards and a touchdown. He did have five catches, but he's this looks like the same guy as he was last year. Sportsline is where to go to get the Beyond the Box score article written by Jacob Gibbs. Plus, fantasy content from Dave, Jamie, and Heath. DFS,

best lineups. Gambling, it's all at sportsline.com. If you use the... Oh, so we always give you the monthly code. What's your Gibbs, right? Promo code Gibbs. Promo code Gibbs. G-I-B-B-S, $1 for your first month. But now I'm seeing we got this annual plan, and you can get 60% off the annual plan with the promo code FOLLOW.

Or if you're looking on YouTube, you can scan the QR code. Promo code is FOLLOW, 60% off the yearly plan for Sportsline. And if you're watching on YouTube, Jonathan Coachman, or Coach, is just like he's got something up his sleeve. He's just ready to take us all down. News and notes, Daniel Jones tore his ACL, so he is out for the season. And, you know, I know, I think I was reading, I love reading Dan's Twitter feed.

It populates my Twitter feed. It's like all Dan. Yeah, I know a lot of people are thinking he won't be ready for week one based on Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray, though, is one of the slowest ACL rehabs and recoveries I can remember. Most quarterbacks, no matter when they get hurt, are ready by week one, two, three, something like that.

I mean, I did the research. This is why I was shocked that Kyler Murray wasn't ready earlier in the season, especially since he only had, I think he only had an ACL tear. I don't even think he had other damage, but I wouldn't count out Daniel Jones for week one, but I also wouldn't count out that Daniel Jones has started his last game for the Giants. So we'll see from an intermediate, from an immediate perspective. I mean, Dan, you don't want to roster any Giants pass catchers do other than Waller in an IR spot. No, this is going to get really ugly. The Giants don't have any

options here. They're going to have to probably go with Tommy DeVito the rest of the season. Matt Barkley is on their practice squad. We'll probably get elevated to the roster. He's not NFL caliber arm talent. Neither is DeVito. Things will get better for this offense just because they'll have more continuity, but there's no solution. You don't just sign Carson Wentz and be like, hey, here's a playbook, learn it and try to get on the same page with receivers and learn all the calls. And this is what we talked about earlier on this show or other shows, the mailbag with why teams can't just trade for Kirk Cousins because it doesn't work like that at the quarterback position so this is the offense I think everyone gets down great I still think you play Barkley but I think Barkley is more of a back-end RB2

who just volumes his way toward like 8 to 12 points a week and maybe an occasional touchdown if they get lucky but yeah all the receivers are done Darren Waller maybe in your IR spot but that could be someone you don't count on either rest of season. All right, other big news. Dallas Goddard is going to miss some time. He might go on IR. He has a fractured forearm, I believe.

Yep. And they have a bye this week. But if he goes on IR, the bye doesn't matter. It's four games, not four weeks. Their next four games. I mean, look at this schedule. They're not going to have... Is this really their schedule?

Do I have this right? I just need to make sure because I basically put every good team in football on their schedule. I have to make sure that there's no tight end. Who is it?

I'll tell you if it's right. Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas. That's their next four games. That's amazing. Oh, I love it. It's great. I think it's good news

for Devontae Smith. You know, I mean, I thought Goddard was such a target hog, but this is exactly when Devante Smith turned his season around. Difference is, A.J. Brown is sucking up all the targets like he was not last year.

True. All right. K.J. Osborne left in the second quarter. Christian Watson injury. Josh Downs. Cam Akers may have torn his Achilles. Still waiting on that one here. But do you guys consider Alexander Osborne left in the second quarter. Christian Watson injury. Josh Downs. Cam Akers may have torn his Achilles. Still waiting on that one here.

But do you guys consider Alexander, if Akers is out for the year, do you consider Madison a must-start running back? No. In the state of running back as it currently stands, I would say yes, just because, and I didn't think I would say this last week, but I have faith in Josh Dobbs to operate an offense and move chains by escaping pockets and running for first downs and keeping drives alive. So I'll say yes, just based on the state of the running back market and how much volume he's going to get.

Josh Dobbs, second among all players in avoided tackles in week nine. It's unbelievable. The one he avoided in the red zone was one of the best avoids I've seen by a quarterback almost ever. Dobbs, I do think we have to really look into his deep ball issues though.

He's not a good thrower of the football. Especially deep. It's so bad. I think he was 0 for 10 on past attempts of 30 or more air yards. I'm a Jordan Addison fantasy manager. I'm pretty nervous about that. Yes. And I need to make a quick immediate correction because I said it was one of the best escapes from a pocket ever.

But obviously, it's not on the same tier of the Eli Manning Super Bowl 2007 escape for the David Diary throw. So let's make that clear. Okay. If anybody who listens to Dan's Giants podcast is listening now, he is very sorry. You can keep listening to Big Blue Badger. There were some other injuries, some other defensive injuries, but the biggest non-skill position injury

is Jedrick Wills, the left tackle for the Browns, who was carted off. And that means if he's out for the year and an air cast is typically a long injury, right? That means both of their tackles out for the year because they lost their right tackle in week two, I think. And they were under pressure. Watson was under pressure a lot.

Arizona had the seventh highest pressure rate in the NFL yesterday. And they're usually terrible in that metric. Okay, let's take a break. When we come back, advanced stats from Jacob and a quick Italian food tip from me to wannabe Italian food tip from me to wannabe Italian Dan Schneier.

We'll be right back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed

to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. You like chicken parm, Dan?

Love chicken parm. Jacob, chicken parm? Who doesn't like chicken parm? Who doesn't, right? That's a great question. Who does not like chicken parm, Dan? Love chicken parm. Jacob, chicken parm? Who doesn't like chicken parm? Who doesn't, right? That's a great question. Who does not like chicken parm? Maybe you guys are already in on this, but last year, I don't remember what the event was. I don't know.

Some family event. I got this meal. Chicken parm with vodka sauce. Oh, vodka sauce. Vodka chicken parm. Yes. This is unreal. It's your first time ever having vodka chicken parm?

Second time. I had it last night. I ordered- i ordered only three percent of the country this is even offered what's that you don't go you don't go like you do you think you're gonna find a vodka chicken parm in florida maybe florida you're gonna in other parts of the south in the midwest i don't i know i don't oh my gosh geez this is gonna kill the food snob is out folks folks. I'm back, baby. Oh, here he is. Jacob, you ever had it? I've never had a chicken parm sub, Adam. It's even better. That's what I had last night for lunch, actually.

Jacob, and lunch today. Did you ever have that, Jacob? Yeah, I actually made it last week. No way. That's weird. Now, Jacob, as a wannabe Italian, let me confirm couple of things as far as your chicken parm skills go. Do you do what you have to do, which is pound the chicken? So it's thin, thin chicken before you bread it.

And before you egg and bread it. No, dude, I didn't pound the chicken. You don't just take it out of the package as a fat chicken breast. You gotta use one of those meat tenderizers and pound that thing in a plastic bag. It's all about if it's paper thin. The more paper thin you get that chicken, the better it tastes. That's right. I'm learning. Easy tip, right? Uncle Slayer says you can have a lobotomy and still make a chicken parm. You can

have them almost anywhere. No, I said a vodka chicken parm, Uncle Slayer. I said a vodka chicken parm, Uncle Slayer, with homemade vodka sauce. You tell me your Italian restaurant you're getting that from in Mississippi. Oh, dude, stop! What is with you all right i'm very sorry to all of our non-northeastern friends here who don't know what they're getting good food

apparently you know what they're getting in at this point yeah i guess so i'm finding good italian food in a lot of places let's be honest snap share you're not finding great barbecue up here there's other things you can't find up here. You know, you find anything in New York city though. I was just a lot to make them feel better. Okay. Snap share stuff. Uh,

Jerome Ford played 64% of the snaps. Kareem hunt played 29% Ford ran 20, 20 routes compared to six for Kareem hunt. Uh, Zach Charbonnet played more snaps than Ken Walker for the second straight game. And it wasn't just garbage time. So this one is a little alarming right now.

And he didn't do anything with them, by the way. Neither guy did. They really got whooped up front, just completely outclassed by the Ravens. But Jacob, this is your area here. So we're looking at snap counts, advanced stats. Tell us what you've been noticing. Yeah, so I had two topics that I wanted to talk about,

and then I was going to run through some quick stats, and you could pick apart anything you want there. But the two topics that I wanted to talk about, you actually just mentioned each of them. The first was Jerome Ford. The usage was much better for him this week. And I think really he's shaping up as clearly their lead guy. We saw him be the clear lead guy down the stretch in week eight when the game was close.

They really didn't use him early in the game, but they did lean on him late in the game in week eight, which I thought was interesting since, you know, he was rumored to have a high ankle sprain. And so he immediately played and then they kind of like reserved him for when they needed him. And then this week, 60% of the snaps inside the red zone, 50-50 from inside the 10 with him and Hunt. And then outside the red zone, he's clearly the guy. Pierre Strong basically went away, barely played in this spot. The other guy I wanted to mention for the Browns is Amari Cooper. He's the only player in the NFL with 100 air yards in every game this season and yeah 23 target per route run rate on

the year which is honestly amazing considering his average depth of target is 15.6 yards to be targeted at such a high rate on such a deep route tree is really wild also wild is his 2.26 yard per run rate uh given the quarterback play that he's had to contend with in cleveland, so you guys both watched Cleveland. I wouldn't never. Um, and so I wanted to throw it to you. What do you like? The quarterback play has been terrible, obviously, but do we think it's going to get any better? Yeah, I'll let Dan answer that. Let me just give a few statistics here. Deshaun Watson. I'm going to, I'm not going to count the game where he threw, I think five passes and re-injured

himself. Uh, but Amari Cooper has 89 or more yards in three of four games with Deshaun Watson. So he seems like an easy start. I think the first game of the year was the only bad one. And Watson came into that game banged up. He's been hurt, right? So, yeah. Anyway, I have some notes on what I saw there. But I watched this game because if you look at Deshaun Watson, look at his fantasy points in four starts, four starts and finish it. He didn't finish yesterday,

but you know what I mean? Four games where he actually played, right? 22.7, 13.6, 25.2, 23.0. And that's a must-start guy if I bought it. So I had to see, was he good? How was he throwing the football? And I thought he was horrible. Dan, what did you think? Yeah, it was not good tape. It was ugly tape. This is what happens when I feel like partially this is an issue of not a lot of time practicing, not a lot of time getting the rapport down with Cooper. Like you said, they've had a good thing going, but outside of that, I don't see it with Eli Moore. Like I expected it to see it with Watson and more Navy Joku and everywhere, not including the red zone. So I just think that right now, this passing game is all from a timing standpoint, from

a rhythm standpoint, the injury to Jedrick Wills, like you said, is going to make things a lot worse there. I now have issues with protection, especially on the ends at any point. In my opinion, he could take a wrong hit to that shoulder and lose his velocity again, which I didn't think, quite frankly. I don't know how you felt about that, Adam. I didn't feel like it was quite good in this game to begin with. And it's tough to throw.

Like, here's the other thing. I've known this for a while. It's really tough to throw in Cleveland. And that's the thing. You look at all these quarterbacks. Take a look at some Cleveland games in November and December over the last few years. And some of the, the quarterback stats from those games from any quarterback in there,

it's ugly, but it's not like Deshaun Watson right now, in my opinion, has the arm talent to cut through that nasty weather and win there. So we're relying on timing and relying on ball placement and relying on rhythm in the passing game. And that's just not there right now. So it's tough for me to buy into this turning around anytime soon.

Yeah, look, I think if you go back to week four or five and Derek Carr and the way he looked that one game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I believe, he didn't look like a professional quarterback. I really don't think he should have been out there. But he got over that injury pretty quickly. So if Watson has now gone from, I can't play to, I think I'm going to play to,

okay, I'm playing this week. And I also felt like he got better as the game went on. He threw a 15, 20 yard pass to Amari Cooper. Um, I think late in the third quarter, that was probably his best throw of the game.

And then he probably one upped it with a deep ball shot to Amari Cooper near the end zone. That was fantastic. Followed up by a Kareem hunt touchdown deep ball shot to Amari Cooper near the end zone. That was fantastic. Followed up by a Kareem hunt touchdown run, but early in the game, he was terrible. His, his deep ball, like he threw a deep ball to Amari Cooper in the first or the second quarter and it traveled about 45 air yards. And it looked like he threw that ball as far as he could almost like he put everything he had into it. So I think they could be, I think they could be really good, and he could be dangerous if he gets his arm strength back. I just don't know when that's happening.

It was not in this game. So I don't really have it. I can't tell the future, but I can tell you that he was definitely not 100% in this game. And Jacob, you had a stat. I mean, he was really inaccurate on short stuff too, and there were just some really ugly throws. Yeah, 17% off target rate on throws that were 10 or fewer air yards.

The league average is 7%. Watson was 17. Right. So next week at Baltimore, no chance. No chance. If he does well, if he shows his arm is back, then maybe I think about starting him against Pittsburgh, at Denver, at the Rams. It's not too bad. But next week at Baltimore, he's a sit for me.

What else? Anything else, Jacob? other than, again, Charbonnet. We already hit on Charbonnet out-snapping Kenneth Walker, running more routes than Kenneth Walker. Well, Charbonnet didn't do anything with his opportunities, really. It was a brutal matchup, and the offense just got dominated up front. It's more so a negative note for Walker. But you guys watched Seattle a little bit. What did you think? I don't know. I just think they had a really bad game. Last week, when Walker didn't have a ton of work, it was easy to chalk it up to the injury. I don't know. I just think they had a really bad game. I can't...

Last week when Walker didn't have a ton of work, it was easy to chalk it up to the injury. I don't know what the deal was this week. I think he's definitely coming off the field. Ken Walker's definitely coming off the field in the two-minute drill, even the four-minute drill. That's going to be Charbonnet or maybe even Dallas. But can they just keep...

Are they just going to keep giving him the ball? I just don't have the answer. I just want to check their schedule because if they fall behind big like this, then no, it's going to be bad for him. Next week, they get Washington. So Washington, then the Rams. I mean, I feel like that should be more favorable.

I'm confused. I can't... I don't know. I don't think he's losing his job to Charbonnet, but I do think the split is going to be a little bit more even. And you might get a lot of like 13, 14 carry to catch games from Walker. And if he doesn't score, he could be pretty disappointed. Yeah, that's without a doubt. I think I didn't actually get a chance to watch this one jacob but from what i've been reading there has been some real regression when it comes to geno smith from a touchdown rate from a bunch of different statistics and those who have watched

the tape said he doesn't look like the same player that he did last year uh at is surprising to me just because i feel like he was so good on tape last year just crazy good like if you go back he was the one of the four or five quarterbacks pushing the ball downfield into tight windows vertically. And I'm just not seeing that a lot this year yet. Um, I would love to go back after this and watch the tape of this game. I just feel like it's going to look a lot like that lions game.

We broke down versus the Ravens a few weeks ago where, you know, the game was like 28 to nothing early and the game script was horrible and they were in pass only mode. And that kind of kills your whole offense. But this is now multiple weeks, I think, with Geno Smith struggling and with the passing game not as it was last season. So it's definitely alarming to me. It's the whole season, and you know what?

It's going to be interesting because this week he gets Washington, and they're basically a tonic for quarterbacks. But I don't really have that much faith in him. And I mentioned this on yesterday's show. DK Metcalf got shut down by a great cornerback, Marlon Humphrey. And he just always gets shut down by great cornerbacks, basically. So he might bounce back against Washington. But the DK-Geno connection is off.

The interceptions are way up. That was what was down last year for Geno. And then they started creeping up at the end of the year. And he's just throwing too many bad interceptions are way up. That was what was down last year for Geno. And then they started creeping up at the end of the year. And he's just throwing too many bad interceptions. And they only had the ball for 19 minutes and 56 seconds, which is like a trademark of the Seahawks last year and getting back to it this year. Your running back is almost never going to have a good game

if they have the ball for 20 minutes. It's hard. I see that all the time. I talked about that with Ramondre Stevenson, and he did have a good game if they have the ball for 20 minutes. It's hard. I see that all the time. I talked about that with Ramondre Stevenson, and he did have a good game because he had a long run, but the Patriots never have the ball. The Seahawks right now are having similar issues, I think. One thing I'd bring up on Gino, I noticed this yesterday.

I was digging into Patrick Mahomes' stats. Actually, I think Mahomes is one of the more sensitive quarterbacks to all of the too-high- to all the too high safety stuff. You talked about the Bengals really know how to bother Josh Allen. I think the Bengals really know how to bother Mahomes as well. And we've seen a lot of defenses adjust in that way. And he's holding the ball longer, Mahomes is, and taking his first read much less often. And when I was looking into first read target rates last year compared to this year, Gino Smith really stood out as well. 57% is Gino Smith's first read target

rate. Russell Wilson is the only quarterback who is lower in 2023. Gino was at 69.5% last year, so right around league average. So I think there's some lack of trust in the offense. I think, yeah, he's just not very comfortable out there. And yeah, it's pretty tough right now for Seattle. And it could also be that his first reads are just not getting open at the same rate. I think, Adam, you had a note about DK Metcalf not winning one-on-one in this matchup. I haven't studied them extensively this year, but DK Metcalf's battled injuries all year. He may not be winning the same way he was winning outside.

I mean, a big part of any kind of passing offense is do you have an X receiver who can win outside on the boundary consistently against man coverage? Cause that opens up the rest of your offense and it allows and forces the posing defense to allocate more resources such as cloud coverage, rolling a safety over the top and taking them away from other areas of the field. If that's not happening and he's not winning those one-on-one routes, then it makes it really difficult, in my opinion, to keep the passing game on schedule.

Just some good news here. Jedrick Wills left tackle for the Browns. He's going on IR, but he has an MCL sprain and is expected to return this season. That is good news. So that's avoiding worst-case scenario there. Anything else, Jacob? Yeah, I'm just going to run through some quick notes.

So Trey McBride, we talked about extensively last week, the role shrunk a little bit this week. Um, obviously the entire offensive production trunk, it was pretty insane. That was 58 yards. I think 58, 58 offensive yards on 48 plays for the car. Oh my God. Obviously it's tough to produce, um, um within that framework but what stood out to me was his his route participation was down to 63 percent um after being at 88 last week i don't know what that is maybe it was just because it was such a crap shoot out there that they just were letting him chill maybe he got banged up i don't know but like he just didn't play as much and so he's gonna need to get that up if he's gonna be relevant for fantasy so that's something to monitor over the upcoming weeks keaton mitchell i think is gonna be a popular ad this week

he only played 13 offensive snaps um nine rush attempts and 13 offensive snaps he did lead the entire nfl and avoided tackles with eight on nine attempts so that's obviously um fun but i don't know if if he's somebody who's actually going to play do you think he just played his way into the role you watched him right dan say that again you have to repeat that i i got something from where i'm sorry apologize do you think keaton mitchell just played his way into a bigger role i feel like they trust gus you know like i feel like they trust the guys that they have um okay yeah so he only played in garbage time no keaton mitchell no not no no no he didn't only play in justice hill only played in garbage but mostly played in garbage keaton mitchell played before that okay he had him very early in the second quarter that i that i charted he had a

few a few but but here's the thing and i did a full evaluation of keaton mitchell on film and i gotta be honest guys i was incredibly impressed with what i saw on tape from keaton mitchell it's not just he is fast but it's not just the speed which i was impressed with it's the body control and the body positioning so he had a one run early in the game um where he just maintained so much balance through contact and he just shows the ability as an inside zone play um i put this on twitter if anybody wants to see the clip of it we can't put it up here but he gets skinny through a crease even after the left tackle blows his block immediately and i've seen so many people run that in run inside zone and not be able to process where these creases are going to be and

i feel like he was really good at processing that they use draw they use counter use power gap for him and it reminded me a lot of a beyond the box where episode we did last season at the end of the year adam i don't know if you remember this or jacob where we broke down jk dobbins and i was talking about how i liked how the ravens were doing a lot of things to get him in space with power gap concepts and counter and it seems like that's the idea here it's similar to what the dolphins do with devin h and but it's not exactly the same because they're not using him in, at least not yet in motion from, you know, outside as a receiver, things like that, but they are doing a lot of power gap concepts to get them into space.

And there's another run later in the game, his 60 yard run, just a great example of an individual play making that happen. So on that play Keaton Mitchell, they're just running a toss outright. The 22 is the defender there, and he plays it perfectly for Seattle, which is to force contain back the inside. He takes away the outside force and contain. Mitchell makes the jump cut, gets through. 22 plays it perfectly, gets his arms on the tackle, and Mitchell just has the contact balance to shake that off

and then shows creativity later in the run and then obviously the touchdown run was incredibly impressive like i said it's just a great job of finding a crease there where it might have not been so i wonder if it is a lot of us if the situation will evolve and you guys can probably comment on this as well because obviously they have so much trust in a player like like uh gus edwards but i wonder if the situation does evolve to the point where they look at this like, it's out the bag now. We can't put the cap back on this, because he adds a different speed element to our offense.

He adds a different playmaking element to our offense. And he's making correct reads right now and finding creases and processing a lot better than he was, quote-unquote, given credit for. And this was a good example, because you saw this just like with Devin HN, he's billed as this only speed guy. And then you watch him. You're like, wow,

his contact balance is pretty good. Wow. He makes pretty good reads between the tackles. He processes pretty well. And I think that could be the same case with Keaton Mitchell. It's not the same kind of offense. I don't want to say this is going to be the next Devin HN, but I think they're not going to be able to just put him back on the bench

and let him, you know, sit there because he just adds so much more in my opinion than both hill and edwards yeah i appreciate that you're getting a chance last name right i'm trying to have to work on devon a chan oh it's devon it's considered devon yeah i don't know about considered i mean it is devon i would say it's considered like your your last name is considered Schneier, but that's cool. Mitchell, Heath said he's a must-add player. I kind of pushed back on that because there's a split,

because Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards are much more likely to get goal line work than Keaton Mitchell. But yeah, I do think, I mean, if you were excited about Jaleel McLaughlin, that didn't end up working out when nowavante, now Javante is back. But A-Chan did. So, yes, I see all the same things.

Like this guy's got some burst and some potential. And it will be somewhere in between that, right? You should probably pick him up. The A-Chan situation, sorry, I didn't mean to cut you off there, Adam. But the reason why we should assume it should be somewhere in between there, and I'm sure you agree with this, is that A-Chan was immediately getting red zone touches, which we don't know or think if Mitchell will get. And HM was also getting those touches. I

talked about where they were designing him in motion. So I don't think it's that, but I also don't think it's McLaughlin because this is a much better offense than the Denver Broncos offense, the Baltimore Rebels offense. And things are so open now in this offense because of how they are passed first under Todd Munkin and running a lot of 11 personnel. So I just think the situation is more similar to the dolphins, just not quite there. Okay. Um,

I just want to say one, one, yeah. One thing about the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, because I think, you know, he's having a really good year, but from a fantasy standpoint,

he's not, uh, he's number six per game and four point number nine per game and six point per to passing touchdown leagues. And he's being, he's a victim right now of Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell and all these rushing touchdowns. The Ravens have six running back rushing touchdowns in their last two games. Jackson has struggled in both of those games from a fantasy standpoint. And what, you know, I don't really know what to make of that other than I would say

he's throwing the ball really well. He's in total control and there will be more touchdowns for him. But Lamar Jackson is one of five quarterbacks that does not have a touchdown pass of 20 or more yards. Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, Desmond Ritter, and Bryce Young.

So you're getting no explosive passing plays. And then you've got this Gus Edwards problem. So it's like— And it's shocking, too, because a lot of what Lamar was great at under Greg Roman was those explosive pass plays, right? Yeah, well, that's what they were using Marquise Brown for. They don't have that guy now. They should, though, with Zay Flowers, man. Zay Flowers was so explosive on tape

in college. And even Beckham, I've seen win on a lot of his one-on-one routes, too. I almost wonder if this is more of an issue of when you have the Greg Roman offense and it's all run first, you can run play action. There's a lot of space in the middle of the field. When you have a pass first offense, there's too high safety. I would not

call this a pass first offense, though. I think they have the lowest pass rate in the NFL. Well, then it's definitely not a pass first offense. There's two high safeties. I would not call this a pass-first offense, though. I think they have the lowest pass rate in the NFL. Well, then it's definitely not a pass-first offense. Pass-first personnel, I should say. It seems different, but they still really don't throw much. Pass-first personnel will still lead

to a very different counter by the defense. They're not going to use base personnel. They're going to use nickel and dime and sub-packages. I wonder, and i haven't watched enough ravens but i wonder if that's taking away the big play i'd have to see what the jacob maybe you could find this or i could i know where i can find this what the usage of opponents first the ravens is from a how much are they using cover one how much using cover six how much using cover like how much are they using two safeties back there or middle of the field closed one but i know against you know when greg

roman was there there was a lot of middle of the field closed looks and a lot of space for for deep shots all right guys jacob why don't we finish up with your stats here because we haven't gotten to one of our topics was keaton mitchell so we did cover that but um we have three more big topics to get to so uh wrap it up with the stats okay i just looked up real quick lamar jackson's off target rate on deep throws is right in line with the league average, which is actually a huge improvement for him from last year when he was clearly the worst on deep throws.

And yeah, Zay Flowers, super disappointing game yesterday. He ran a team high 31 routes on 37 dropbacks and only drew one target. Dude, it was Beckham's birthday. Yeah, it was. It was Beckham's birthday. Yeah, it honestly was. I know.

It's his birthday. You got to look for these narratives, right? Yeah. I don't see that on true media, Jacob. Yeah. I mean, last week was Tank Dell's birthday, and everybody got excited about that. Oh, push back on the birthday narrative. Oh, man.

All right. What else? Let's run through a few quick ones here. The Bears' backfield. We saw De dante foreman return to dominating the work 59 snap rate only 28 for roshan johnson 20 rush attempts to just two for roshan johnson game script right yeah yeah for sure um but honestly i just was a little bit shocked to see roshan with such low involvement 75 snap rate for jonathan taylor only 19 for zach moss uh 75 rap participation as well for jt five targets caught them all scored a receiving touchdown that's super exciting 51 snap rate for raheem mostert uh salvan akhmed ran more

routes and most of its uh snap rate has been below 55 in three straight games well just wanted to bring this up because i think uh i think don hn is gonna have a really big role when he gets back yeah he looked good running and cutting last week if they feel like he can handle it that's my only thing like i don't think he's gonna have that much bigger i think i'm going to guess I'm going to set the over under at. Eleven and a half carries per game. For a chance to stop right now, I'm looking up. I just want to make sure that what I think is true about Devin HN. Oh, no.

OK, Adam, maybe it might be on to something. I thought he had more touches than he did at the collegiate level. I thought he was more of a workhorse than he actually was. But is that Devon's brother? Because I don't I don't know who Devin is. I keep calling him Devin HN. Yeah. Nope, nope. I'll get Devon at some point.

But at least I've hit the H. Someone's complimented your hoodie, Dan. Oh, yeah. This is a Grand Canyon hoodie. There we go. Okay. Appreciate that. You know, it's good to hear a compliment about my wardrobe.

Because all I get is negativity from Adam and Jamie when it comes on the mailbag show. When it comes to my wardrobe. Oh, that hoodie's too big on you. know this is a nice looking hoodie thank you Captain Spock I appreciate that I need all the compliments I can get on a dark day like today the Giants are two and seven their team is collapsing in front of itself just like 2021 just like 2017 it's impossible to watch this team it's impossible to root for this team. So thank you. At least I can go to sleep tonight knowing I wore a nice hoodie and people liked it.

Also, this Uncle Slayer says, Grand Canyon has the best chicken bar. All right, Jacob, I'm sorry to keep cutting you off. Go ahead. Two more quick ones. Jahan Dotson, targets over the past three games,

8, 10, and 8. That's mostly been a product of Washington producing a ton of play volume overall, but still encouraging to see him get going. I thought he might move to the slot a little bit more without Curtis Samuel but that wasn't the case um he only had a 31 slot rate he's continuing to be used down the field so I think it's going to be inconsistent but at least we're seeing something from Dotson so that's great and the last one is Mike Kosicki I brought him up last week as somebody

who might emerge for the Patriots he led the Patriots in routes run this week. He drew one target. It was 28 yards downfield. So I don't know if there's actually going to be any fantasy viability with Gasicki, but leading the team in routes run is interesting. I think they are pretty desperate for a downfield threat. I like pop Douglas as much as the next guy, but that's not his game. He's a short yardage guy. So just an interesting game to keep in mind if you do need tight end help. Tight end help. That's our first topic. When we come back, we'll talk about the depth of the tight end position. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.

So we only have four big topics today, and one of them is about Keaton Mitchell, and we already talked about him, so you can check the time code for the, probably the advanced stats section. I don't know, whatever it might be, but you'll find it if you're skipping around. But the first topic comes from Ed, and he says,

the tight end landscape may be changing. At this time this season, there are actually some borderline startable guys emerging. Even moving forward, there is some promising young talent at the position making for a deeper position next season and beyond you guys agree or disagree with this take about tight ends i completely agree with this take about tight ends and i'll say this you know a year ago i said this was the most exciting and fun tight end draft class i've ever seen studying this game i was huge on a lot of these players and we're seeing immediate impacts from some of them dalton kincaid sam laporta i even would put luke musgrave in that mix even

though his quarterback play is as bad as it gets i do think jordan love might be the worst quarterback in the nfl this year just when you consider how many clean pockets he's thrown from versus some of the other worst quarterbacks in the nfl and how they are on the bottom of the list of clean pockets. I saw crazy set on that this week, but he's still a great talent, Luke Musgrave. And I think we're looking at probably the best tight.

It might be the best tight end class in the last decade, as far as immediate impact goes and then long-term success. So those guys will pace the way. And those guys will obviously be leaders at the position, I think moving forward. So yes, I think we are at that point. I'm curious to get what your guys' take is on this.

No matter how much, Cade Auden was super viable this week, played every snap, and soaked up a lot of targets, and he's another interesting young guy. Yeah, I love this class. Yeah, I do too. I think that,

I'll just say this, first first of all good stat to back up ed's case right now there are 14 tight ends averaging 10 ppr fantasy points per game or better last year there were nine so 14 this year right now last year at the end of the season there were nine however last year was just a really bad year for passing games quarterbacks were bad wide receivers were bad tight ends were bad so this year is a pretty bad year for passing games. Quarterbacks were bad. Wide receivers were bad. Tight ends were bad. This year's a pretty bad year for passing games, no? I don't think it's as bad as last year, but here's how many tight ends averaged 10 points per game or more

over the last five seasons. 10, 12, 13, 13, 9. And this year it's 14. So it's a little bit better than what it's been in the past. I do think that I still don't buy it because I've been doing this for 15 years basically. And, and it's never, it's always the same, nothing ever changes. And the second you start buying into tight ends, they let you down and that's going to keep happening. Well, you don't think Cole Komet had a good stretch last year year. Cole commit had back-to-back games last year with more than 20 fantasy

points. And he scored something like seven or fewer points in three of his next four games. You don't think taste of mail had a good stretch last year. Taste of him had a very good stretch. He had a three game stretch where he was looking like a guy that you're actually starting. And then were you starting taste of mail?

Hell no. You're not starting taste of mail after that. He let you down. David, no joke. No joke. It was pretty interesting because he was really getting going for about five games or so, four or five games in the middle of the season last year. And then he got hurt and he came back and he was doing

nothing. But it's another game with Deshaun Watson with very few targets. Yesterday he only had six targets. I don't think Deshaun Watson threw the ball that much. But Jake Ferguson, what a great example. Ten targets, seven catches, 91 yards, and a touchdown. Here are his targets in eight games. Seven, four, seven, seven. Okay, that's seven targets in three of the first four games. Certainly sounds like a must-start tight end, right? Okay, his next four games, they combined eight targets.

If you, I don't think there's anything you can do about this. My advice to you is find a tight end that's either going to get the most targets or be on the best offense. So a guy who could be second in targets on a good offense is very appealing. And that is Jake Ferguson to me. He could be second in targets. He is second in targets right now, I think. David Njoku, that's a key here. In the first three games with Watson, Elijah Moore was getting a ton of targets. Yesterday, Elijah Moore, I think, had two. That's a positive development for David Njoku. If he can be second on the team in targets with a fairly healthy Deshaun Watson, he could be good. But all of these guys are going to frustrate you.

Don't kid yourself. Don't kid yourself. So let's talk about the ones that I think are no-brainer slam dunk starts, that we all think are that. It's Kelsey, Andrews, Laporta. For now, it's certainly Kincaid. I would say, I would have said Goddard. That's gone now. I would say McBride. I actually, with Kyler Murray back, I think I have that confidence.

I got to see it, and I don't know how long Ertz is out for. He's out for, I think, two more games at least. But I'd say McBride. I don't know if you agree. And is there anyone else? Hawkinson. Oh, I'm so sorry. Yes, Hawkinson for sure.

Evan Ingram has really been great. Evan Ingram was on a bye. Damn it, I forgot about him. You know what? Let me pull up the tight ends. Dalton Schultz. Stop talking. I mean, sure.

This week, what about week eight? He was terrible in week eight. What did you just say before that, Adam? I don't know. Why? What did I say? There was something that sounded interesting. I'm a happy listener.

Did you hear that, Jacob? I heard it. I didn't say anything. I don't think he said what we thought we heard him say, but we'll leave that up to the listeners. And if they deem it to be what we thought we heard him just say, this could be monumental for the podcast, considering some of the moments I've had slip-ups.

And let's see what happened there. We'll go back to it. You've got to send me the private chat. Let me know what the heck I just said. Sorry. I should have pulled up the list of tight ends. This is points per game in PPR. Kelsey, Andrews, Hawkinson,

Laporta. Number five is Komet. I'll call him a must roster guy. Sure. For now, he's a must start. You think he's just immune to having a four-yard game? I don't think that. Right.

I think two weeks ago, he had zero targets, right? Yeah. George Little is sixth in points per game. Wait till Debo and Iyuk are back. You're going to be pissed off more often than not. That's going to be starting next week with Kittle. Ingram, yes. Ingram, you start every week in PPR.

But he doesn't have a... I don't think he has a Renzo target. He doesn't even have starting next week with Kittle. Ingram, yes. Ingram, you start every week in PPR, but he doesn't have a... I don't think he has a Renzo target. He doesn't have a touchdown this year. Wow. Schultz is toward the top of the list of the next group, but I don't think he's a slam dunk. Of course, everyone... Actually, next week,

the Bengals give up the most fantasy points to tight ends. He might be good, but I think C.J. Stroud might struggle against the Bengals next week. But this is my, this is my opinion on tight end. You think these guys are going to be consistent for you? You are wrong. What do you guys think?

Yeah. I mean, I think there will be cases again where there will be some guys who can break out and be consistent. Kincaid without Knox Laporta, but you can't, you have to look at on a case by case basis. And I'll say this, Laporta. But you can't. I have to look at it on a case-by-case basis. And I'll say this.

My take about tight ends remains. Don't get fooled into this next draft season. Please don't use your third, fourth, fifth round picks on guys that get propped up the board at the tight end position. Okay. So we have a note here. I'm getting fined for dropping the F-bomb.

Yes. You see that? After further review of the ruling that Adam said the F-bomb stance, I did not. Me too. He did it. It's not the first time that's happened. All right.

Next up. Next up. Topic number two is Keaton Mitchell. So topic number three. No. Oh, Bijan. That's the one. Oh, yeah.

From Miles McDonald and many other concerned fantasy managers. Jacob, I'll let you go first. What to do with Bijan Robinson? I'm stealing an answer from my guy, Pat Fitzmaurice. I love Pat. You got to follow him if you don't. He's very funny and an incredibly accurate ranker. What are you doing with Bijan moving forward? Same thing I've been doing all year, starting him and directing a string of expletives at Arthur Smith every week. I don't know. I don't know what we can do. Like his role is shrinking. They don't use them in the red zone. I just. Yeah. Red zone stuff's absolutely crazy because he had so much success for them early in the season. The red zone is a receiver running back or a decoy. And now they're running end arounds to John who Smith in the red zone. I

think Matt Waldman, who we've had on the podcast a bunch for the dynasty show, did a great, great breakdown on Twitter. You guys can find it. Uh, his Twitter is Matt Wallman of how just unbelievably you watch the breakdown yourself. You'll get just as frustrated as I was with Arthur Smith after watching it. And, you know, Arthur Smith is Arthur Smith. He's going to do his thing, but not having Bijan in every red zone snap to me has no logical sense behind it and i won't come around to the other side of that argument no matter what arthur smith or anyone tells me and it's frustrating for fantasy owners i for fantasy managers i don't exactly know i can tell you one thing because i watched all of his rushing attempts if you guys want to hear about that i think one of the biggest issues is that we have from last year to this year is, and I haven't looked into the impact of, or the exact reason why maybe you guys have, there's been any, this run blocking is just nowhere near what it was last year.

They were developed. They like, there was a weekly teach tape in the run game last year from the Falcons. Interesting concepts in the run game that Arthur Smith was running that made him diverse and unique versus the rest of the NFL. Now we're just seeing a lot of the same type of run concepts, but not working and not getting any push up front and being, you know, but Dan, he's averaging five yards per carry. Tyler Algier is averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

He doesn't even need good run blocking. The guy has not disappointed. It hasn't been him who's disappointed. It's not like a Tony Pollard situation where he's got this great role. It's just the role. I saw this tweet from Bill Barnwell, and he's making fun of Arthur Smith. He says,

There's a reason why the Falcons didn't give B. John Robinson a touch on those three goal-to-go plays, but you wouldn't understand it. Too complicated. Got to be in the room to understand why the John U. Smith jet sweep is the right idea. Every time, like when I log onto Twitter, it's either a Dan Schneier tweet about the giants,

which I love. There's a reason because I click on them, you know, so they stay populated or it's 50 fantasy people ripping Arthur Smith. And there's nothing you do. I will say that, you know, what he was being saved by earlier

was the receiving stuff. And he's got, I think, two catches on nine targets in two games with Taylor Haneke. That's a killer. And they don't look really in sync right now. I looked at those targets.

Some of them were throwaways, but they're not really connecting. Sure. So they got to get him in space more. If I told you that the Atlanta Falcons are averaging the sixth most plays per game in the NFL and they lead the NFL in running back carries, you would think B. John Robinson

might be like the number one player in fantasy, but it's not even close. It's so frustrating. If, this is my hope, they have Arizona next week. Arizona is terrible against the run and going into this week at Arizona is terrible against the run, and going into this week at least,

they saw the most running back carries in football. This is an opportunity for him and Algier to have 15 or more carries, and for Bijan to have 80 yards and a touchdown, and maybe they go into their bye week after that, and they come out of it, and they say, finally, it's time. We're unleashing Bijan Robinson

because Arthur Smith, I hope they freaking lose to the Cardinals. I hope they get blown. Well, then it wouldn't help Bijan, but I hope they lose. And I hope he's coaching for his job and realizing if I don't get my best players, the ball I'm gone. And that's the only hope I have for Bijan returning first round value. And I just want to clarify one thing earlier, when I was talking about how the run concepts and the run blocking wasn't what it was last year, and there were so many good examples of it last year. It's not a knock on Bijan. Bijan's been making the most of what's there. But last year, there were so many open opportunities for Tyler Algier, who doesn't really have the same kind of level of athleticism burst or anything that

Bijan Robinson has. And those opportunities, I'm just not seeing when I watch Atlanta Falcons run game this year, I'm just not seeing those open holes, the yards created before contact. Dude, Tyler Algier is averaging 0.3 yards before contact per rush. Right? Yeah. B. John's averaging 1.7.

Yeah. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Last year, Algier was at 1.35. 0, it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Last year, Algier was at one point three five zero point three is unbelievable. Algier was a good running back last year, you know, so obviously

he shouldn't be this bad. All right. This is from Rick. Is it time to sell Tony Pollard for James Connor? Who would you guys rather have? Oh, interesting question. Tony Pollard, James Connor. We got into that depth. connor comes back kyler murray will be there they can actually block a little bit in the interior um i still

think i'm taking pollard yeah it depends on what you think the arizona offense is going to be like they were pretty functional when connor was healthy and was operating as the offensive centerpiece i don't seem to have as much faith in Kyler Murray as everybody else does. I don't know. I don't feel like he's ever been an above average or even average NFL

passer. I worry that the rushing mobility won't be there in the way that it has been in the past. I don't know. Is it that much better than Josh Dobbs? Oh, I didn't throw to Pollard, Pollard,

Connor. Statistically. You're right about that, Jacob. But part of that is because like, if you look at the numbers, I'm sure like that will back up that statement. And I'm not saying that makes it wrong,

Jacob, because ultimately it comes down to what you produce. But I think a lot of that was because of the offense he played in. And it was, that was among the worst coordinated and designed offenses i've almost ever seen that's true and some of his throws have been just outstanding next level elite level arm talent throws i'm trying to remember some of that whole shot he took like down the right sideline 40 yards down the field to win a game a couple of years ago or last year. And it's just been plays. I still think his arm talent is phenomenal.

Kyler Murray. It's just a matter of, can he find consistency and get into rhythm in the passing game? He wasn't able to the last system, but I still have some hope. Like I could never compare him to Josh jobs personally. I don't think they're even on the same level from an arm town standpoint, but maybe you're still right because maybe they both just can't produce and

keep the passing game in rhythm. That, I don't know. That could be the case. Yeah, and I just think Dobbs is way better as a processor from what I've seen. So, yeah, when it comes to these two players, they're really interesting to compare because James Conner has been at the very top of the running backs when it comes to advanced analytics.

He's really been incredible this year. He's fourth in avoided tackle rate among qualified guys. Tony Pollard ranks 44th of 45. he's really been incredible this year he's fourth and avoided tackle rate among qualified guys tony pollard ranks 44th of 40 of 45 um cream hunt is the only one who has a lower rate explosive rushes 6.7 for pollard um ranks 43rd 6.7 of his rushes have gone for 10 or more yards james connor is at 14.7 so like this is just bizarro world where these two have flipped. In the past, Conor's not been some explosive back, but he really has been this year. If he comes

back and is healthy and the offense is better, I think it's definitely possible that he could up-reduce Pollard. The situation in Dallas is so much better, though. I think I would take Pollard. I would take Pollard because I think he's safer. There are a lot of unknowns with James Conner, especially Kyler Murray. The difference between Murray and Dobbs, I think,'s safer. There are a lot of unknowns with James Conner, especially Kyler Murray.

But the difference between Murray and Dobbs, I think, is Dobbs threw five... Conner had five catches in week one, I think, and then he had something like three the rest of the year with Dobbs. So Dobbs just wasn't throwing to running backs. Kyler does. It's been a very...

The lead running back for Arizona in the Kyler Murray era has been a very the lead running back for arizona in the kyler murray era has been a really valuable player james connor was the number nine running back per game last year and that was with him leaving two games early i believe and in 2021 he was the number nine running back per game uh this year if you remove the game he left with an injury where he scored 4.6 fantasy points, per game he was number 13 in non-PPR and number 18 in PPR, which, by the way, is better than Tony Pollard. I would say that if you told me Kyler was going to be pretty much what he has always been

and Connor was going to stay healthy, I would actually take Connor over Kyler Murray. But too much uncertainty for me, I think, so I'll take... I said over Kyler Murray, but too much uncertainty for me, I think. So I'll take, I said over Kyler Murray, I'm sorry, over Tony Pollard. So I'll take Pollard to play it safe. To the point you made about Dobbs not throwing to the running backs as much,

14.5% target per run rate for James Connor would be a career low. That's what he's at this year. But when he's had Kyler on the field last year it was at 19 percent um and so if if my speculation is correct that kyler might not run as much then we might see that rate rise even more um and connor's always been pretty productive on a per target basis um so that's exciting i'm excited to get him back i think he has uh oh yeah great he has cleveland oh no no. Great. He has Cleveland.

Oh, no, no. They just played Cleveland. They just played Cleveland. I'm sorry. He has Atlanta this week without Grady Jarrett. So we'll see how good their run defense is. Atlanta is sixth best against running backs, but again, they only played one game without their starting defensive tackle,

and that was against Minnesota, who can't really run the ball. Well, that's it for Beyond the Box score. Get yourself a chicken parm with vodka sauce. If you can't find it, Jacob will mail you some. And thanks, everybody. Someone earlier asked if Dan was wearing a sleeveless hoodie, which he isn't, but I think you probably inspired him

to cut the sleeves off of the one he is wearing right now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the waiver. We'll have you on live stream tonight. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the waiver. We'll actually live stream tonight. We'll talk to you tonight, 7.30 p.m. Eastern at youtube.com slash fantasy football today.