Fantasy Football Today - Beyond the Boxscore: Top 5 League Winners, Playoff Defenses, Early Waivers & More! (11/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 13, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Expectations for Josh Jacobs for the rest of... the season? Is Breece Hall's stock falling? The crew recaps Jets-Raiders (2:40) on Sunday Night Football. Then, we discuss the latest news (11:10) and notes from around the league. Next, we dive into advanced stats and snap counts (14:00) of Ty Chandler, Keaton Mitchell, George Pickens, James Conner, and others. Finally, We answer your big topics: Brian Robinson (33:45) must-start RB1, top 5 league winners (43:40) for the rest of the season, and more! SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:16 Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. And happy Monday. It's never happy Monday, but happy Monday, everybody. And welcome to Slightly Beyond the Box Score. Jacob's not here today, so Dan and I will take you just a little bit beyond the box score today with some advanced stats and some good analysis. But really, we're just going to be killing time until Jacob's back next week. What's up, Dan Schneier? How you doing? Doing well today, Adam, as well as I can be being somebody who covers and is a fan of the
Starting point is 00:02:07 New York football Giants. I love it, man. Great win by the Cardinals yesterday. Great win. I've embraced the tank. The Nathaniel York Giants because they are tank. So anyway, Dan, what was that? Nathaniel York
Starting point is 00:02:23 tank Dell's Nathaniel Dell. So they're Nathaniel York tank. Oh, Dan, what was that? Nathaniel York tank Dell is Nathaniel Dell. So they're Nathaniel York tank. Oh, God, that was one of your worst. I tweeted it yesterday. That's unbelievable. Workshopping it. Anyway, who are you excited to talk about today, Dan? There are a few players I'm excited to talk about.
Starting point is 00:02:41 Trey McBride is one of them. Tank Dell, who you just made a horrific joke trying to use his name, is another one. I'm also excited to talk a little bit about what we're seeing out of David Montgomery, my boy. Your boy. My boy's mine. He's been my boy. He's not your boy. Jonathan Taylor, because volume is everything in fantasy football, and I really like what I saw.
Starting point is 00:03:05 Mike Evans. So we'll get into a bunch of those players. I'm also going to talk a little bit, and we're going to talk a little bit about Brian Robinson and Sam Powell and that commander's offense. Because that's the game I watched the most tape on this week. I saw that whole game on tape. And so there's some things we're going to talk about. Also, for those tuning into the show, Adam, I am going to do at one point, because for some of who we're going to talk about, Adam, I plan to use some Jacob Gibbs data because Jacob Gibbs has still put out some good data today, even though he is traveling and couldn't make the show. So I will, for those who are tuning in for the remainder of the show, maybe something to look forward to, do my best at trying a Jacob Gibbs impression.
Starting point is 00:03:45 Oh, wow. Oh, stats. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Looking forward to that. And then, Jacob, if you're listening, you have a week to work on your Dan Schneier impression. We're also going to give you some playoff DSTs to focus on and some rest of season league winners. We'll start though with the Raiders and the Jets.
Starting point is 00:04:02 I just, I cannot believe the Jets lost that game. That was one of the best games I've ever seen Zach Wilson play, and they still lost. I thought he was fine. I mean, the interception was bad, but he was scrambling really nicely. He was
Starting point is 00:04:17 fine, and whatever. I mean, they had eight penalties for 83 yards. They outgained the Raiders 365 to 274. They had a touchdown, a Brees Hall touchdown called back on a holding penalty. And that was really it. I mean, I think Robert Salas said after the game, they had five trips into their territory and it was like three field goals and a turnover side or something like that. So I thought they blew it. But but hey, good job by the Raiders. And we know what the Raiders
Starting point is 00:04:43 identity is now. If you listen to the broadcast, I thought this was fascinating. Josh Jacobs said that for the first time since the John Gruden era, so it didn't happen at all under Josh McDaniels, the coaching staff asked him which running plays he liked and what he wanted to be part of the game plan. Now, before I flip out and say I can't believe that Josh McDaniels' regime did that, I don't know how common that is, but it's clear Antonio Pierce is making Josh Jacobs the focal point of the offense, which is bad for everyone other than Josh Jacobs,
Starting point is 00:05:19 but they're not going to win every game. They're not going to be able to just run the ball the entire second half like they did. But that is what we heard. He loves Robert Spillane, who had the interception, basically game-sealing interception. And I thought that Ruptured Spillane was a funny team name, personally.
Starting point is 00:05:37 And that he loves Josh Jacobs. He wants to make Josh Jacobs the identity of the offense. He wants a tough, hard, physical, downhill running team what are your fantasy takeaways from jets and raiders yeah starting with the raiders that's exactly right we're seeing antonio pierce have an identity for this team and it's going to be operate through jacobs and what you said first of all i like the roberts belaine one a lot better
Starting point is 00:06:00 than the other joke you had but it's actually pretty decent ruptured spilling it unfortunately he's not an offensive skill player so we can't really use that otherwise you know if you had that to work with we can come up with a lot of good names um so you know you're going a little off script here adam this is a little you know you're pushing it a little far but this is what you do what i do yep beyond the box score beyond the screens it's behind the script game script but um so like on one hand i want to say adam that i don't think they're going to be able to do this every week and that's probably true but i look at the raiders schedule now right let's take a look at what's left on this schedule because this is big go ahead dad because the like display the giants and the jets their next two
Starting point is 00:06:41 games are the dolphins and the chiefs dolphins i next two games are the Dolphins and the Chiefs. Dolphins, I was going to say, they have the Dolphins-Chiefs stretch, but if we get through that Vikings game, I could see that being good solid game script. Chargers, honestly, I could see that being good game script. Chiefs again, that's no good. But Colts, that's another one. So we're going to get at least half of the, and then Broncos, we're going to get
Starting point is 00:06:59 well, that's not going to be part of the fantasy play. So we're going to get half the games, though, of decent game script, which is not bad. And Jacobs obviously getting the football. He broke his biggest run to be part of the fantasy play. So we're going to get half the games though, a decent game script, which is not bad. And Jacob's obviously getting the football. He broke his biggest run toward the end of the game, got in a groove. And I like the idea of what you said, because all the good, it's, it's more common than you think all the good coaches work with their players and try to put in the concepts that fit rather than try to fit a system around the player.
Starting point is 00:07:21 All the bad coaches who end up fired in the NFL and not long for the NFL are the ones who try to fit their players into their system. That's bad football. Saw it with Jason Garrett, with the Giants. We've seen it with Josh McDaniel here. So I think your takeaway is right, that basically Josh Jacob becomes the only player on this offense to really get excited about for fantasy.
Starting point is 00:07:42 Whoa, whoa, whoa. That was not my takeaway. That was your takeaway? No, I said he's the focal point of the offense. It's not how I feel. Whoa, whoa, whoa. That was not my takeaway. That was your takeaway. No, I said he's the focal point of the offense. It's not how I feel. You said it's bad news for everyone else. No, it is if they're going to try to. That's what I mean.
Starting point is 00:07:52 Okay, but I don't think they're going to be able to do that. If their philosophy is to throw the ball 25 times a game, that's bad news for Devontae Adams, especially bad news for Jacoby Myers. I think it's worse for Jacoby Myers. That's the one I think is really the sell now type of play. Nobody's buying him.
Starting point is 00:08:07 I think he's played three games with Aiden O'Connell. He's been terrible in all three except he had a rushing touchdown against the Giants. I think he's an easy sit
Starting point is 00:08:16 at this point. Adams is back. The Adams is a must start. It was a good game, not a great game. He had so much production in the first quarter and then he kind of disappeared.
Starting point is 00:08:26 But again, I just don't think they're going to be able to just run the ball 27 times every week. I don't think they're going to win every week. I still think they're a below-average team. It's Adams and Jacobs, and that's it, right? It is, but I would say this. There were some positive signs from a processing standpoint, and this is just based on the broadcast angle.
Starting point is 00:08:43 I didn't watch the tape on this game. From what Aiden O'Connell was able to do from getting off of his first read. There were multiple moments in that game, including the touchdown pass, where he came off the play side read and threw to the backside. And that's something you don't typically see from rookie quarterbacks. And I don't think he's anything too special at quarterback or is going to kind of change too much there, but it's a good sign to, in my mind, to see that happening from a processing standpoint. It didn't exactly happen with Jimmy Garoppolo either. All right, for the Jets, Garrett Wilson is a must-start. He gets 13 targets every week now.
Starting point is 00:09:15 He gets a ton of catches. Almost had that Hail Mary at the end. That was really something. And Zach Wilson has now thrown for 240, 263, and 263 yards in his last three games. So that's good. That's on 36, 49, and 39 pass attempts. But the story here is Brees Hall. Over the last four weeks, I would say Brees Hall is probably the worst running back in football. Not in fantasy, but in football. There have been 39 running backs over the last four weeks with 30 or more carries. Okay, 39.
Starting point is 00:09:46 He is last in rush EPA. Last in success rate. Third to last in yards before contact per carry. Last in yards after contact per carry. 16th in avoid rate. That's fine. Last in percentage of carries for five or more yards.
Starting point is 00:10:02 And last in explosive run rate, which is percentage of carries for 12 or more yards. And last in explosive run rate, which is percentage of carries for 12 or more yards, as defined by True Media. Do we have concerns here? You know, he's doing enough in the passing game. But let's see. In this game, it was how many points did he score in this game? Like 10-ish? 10-11?
Starting point is 00:10:22 And that's what he scored last week. He scored 10 against the Chargers. Do you have any concerns about Brees Hall? Depends from what standpoint and what front you're asking for, because I did go back and watch some of his tape. I've seen the game he played against the Giants fully on tape, every single play there. I just think the reason he's not producing right now in the run game
Starting point is 00:10:40 is almost exclusively due to two factors. One, the Jets' offensive line, and two, the certainty two factors. One, the Jets offensive line. And two, the certainty that teams have for playing the Jets run first. I mean, they are, you watch how teams play this Jets offense. There's just no concern at all for the deep halves of the field. There's no concern at all for Zach Wilson doing anything with the football. They are keyed in to stop Brees Hall on every snap. And if they don't go to Brees Hall with a play action or a pass call they're not worried about it these opposing defenses so
Starting point is 00:11:08 that combo battle line i mean you watch some of these carries adam and he's blown up in the back field or the penetration is there there's no cut back lane there's no hole there's nowhere to process there's nowhere to do like sure the yards after context that you brought up which is bad is is not great but yards before contact being third to worst kind of shows what I'm talking about. And then the fact that he can still avoid tackles is probably a decent sign. So for fantasy standpoint, I am considering him less of an asset than people did after his breakout games earlier this season, like a few weeks back, just because that offense is so bad.
Starting point is 00:11:41 This is how I treat all running backs and bad offenses. But I think from an NFL standpoint, I'm not too worried about Brees Hall. All right. And let's go. Would you rather have Rashad White or Brees Hall rest of season? That's a fair, good question. And I think they're very comparable assets or fantasy rest of season,
Starting point is 00:11:57 despite Brees Hall being a better talent. All right. I'd rather have Brees Hall, but it is worth asking at this point. Well, we usually tell you about what Jacob has on Sportsline, but there's a lot of stuff on Sportsline that you'll like. Jacob, of course, has the Beyond the Box score article. You can use the promo code Gibbs. You can use the promo code follow to get 60% off an annual plan. Forget about the one month plan. How about the annual plan? 60% off if you use the promo code follow on Sportsline.com. So we've got video content on Sportsline. We've got gambling. We've got fantasy. We've got DFS. We've got content from
Starting point is 00:12:31 Dave, Jamie, and Heath, and of course, Jacob. It's all on Sportsline. It's a tremendous, valuable, valuable resource. It's $9.99 a month. And for the annual subscription, you can get 60% off with the code FOLLOW. You probably spend more than that on dinner. FOLLOW is the promo code, sportsline.com. News and notes, Derek Carr, good chance he's back after the bye. They're at Atlanta. Keenan Allen, I think he's fine. Michael Thomas, knee. Deshaun Watson hurt his ankle. They are playing Pittsburgh this week. And I don't know that he's going to be able to play. I mean, I assume he will, but he's dealing with the shoulder,
Starting point is 00:13:09 and he hurt his ankle as well. Mack Jones benched. Taylor Heineke, hamstring injury. And Arthur Smith said he's not announcing his starting quarterback yet. Alexander Madison left with a concussion. So I wouldn't expect him to play this week. Devon Achan has been designated to return from IR. That's awesome. Panthers cornerback J Devon Achan has been designated to return from IR. That's awesome.
Starting point is 00:13:26 Panthers cornerback J.C. Horn has been designated to return from IR. That's also great. He's a very good player when he stays on the field, which is unfortunately very rare. Some of the big injuries, two defensive backs injured for the Browns, Juan Thornhill and Denzel Ward. Don't know the severity there. Quan Alexander out for the season.
Starting point is 00:13:43 That's another middle linebacker for the Steelers. Two weeks in a row they've lost their defensive signal caller. They're at Cleveland in week 11. I told you about some cornerback injuries that we'll be keeping an eye on. Tyson Campbell for Jacksonville. Marlon Humphrey for the Ravens. Caleb Evans for the Vikings.
Starting point is 00:13:59 Marshawn Lattimore for the Saints. These are all starters. All important players. And the Giants are now the most injured team in the world. As you get Washington next week. And then here's some stats. Since it's a stat show, right? This is according to ESPN. The Browns, the Cleveland Browns trailed for 59 minutes and 20 seconds in this game, in the game on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:14:23 No NFL team this millennium, not sure why they phrased it that way, but this millennium had won while trailing for that long in a game, according to ESPN stats and information. We had a record on Sunday. Five games were decided on a last second game winning field goal. That's the most in a single day in NFL history. Trey McBride became the first Cardinals tight end with 100 yards in a game since 1989. That was the longest 100-yard game for a tight end drought by any team.
Starting point is 00:14:54 And CeeDee Lamb is the first player with 10 or more catches for 150 more yards in three straight games. Well, let's get into some more snap counts and stats, Dan. Before we do that, i have a couple quick you know rapid reactions to some of the things that you brought up there i want to start with the derrick carr situation you said he's likely to be back uh this is a stat from jacob gibbs so maybe i can try out my first jacob gibbs impression you can let me know how they go and just a reminder for those listening me and jac are boys. I love him. I think he will enjoy these, but I don't know. I hope he does. I think I know
Starting point is 00:15:28 his sense of humor well enough to know that he will enjoy these impressions, but, um, Lord knows an impression of me would be a lot crazier than anything I could do for Jacob, but let me try my Jacob impression right here. So here we go. We know just, just to set the tone and set the mood a little bit here. We know Jacob is a very reserved guy, reserved voice. Yeah, they know Jacob. They know him. They know Jacob, so here we go. All right, Adam.
Starting point is 00:15:51 Week 10 averaged up a target 5.4 yards Derek Carr, which is interesting because 5.2 yards Jameis Winston averaged up the target. Chris Olave's week 10 target share 6% with Derek Carr at QB, 35% with Jameis Winston at QB. So really when you think about it and what we're looking forward to moving forward is if Jameis Winston isn't that quarterback and Derek Carr's injury forced him to miss a week, that really does boost up Chris Olave for week 11 and moving forward. And then he would say, I'm curious what you guys think about that. I'm curious what you guys think.
Starting point is 00:16:29 I'm curious what you guys think about that. I like any good. Yeah. Rate that impression one to 10. It was like a three. Oh, terrible. You didn't really get his cadence. All you did was whisper, basically.
Starting point is 00:16:42 I tried to, you know, this was a mistake. You got to listen to him. You got to listen to him because there are more time watching tape to prepare for the show than I should have watched of spending time watching Jacob Gibbs tape from previous beyond the box score shows to get the cadence down. That was that was a mistake. That impression wasn't. Yeah, you didn't get it. You didn't capture any of his nuances. I'm not going to be able to do it either, but I could try next week or something.
Starting point is 00:17:05 Yeah, it's interesting. That's a very low ADOT for the Saints, usually throwing the ball downfield all the time. I'm pretty much fine with Olave, but we have to remember that Michael Thomas did miss basically all of this game. Olave had a good game. Any other stats?
Starting point is 00:17:19 Any other Jacob Gibbs? Oh, reactions. So the other one is a Dan Schneier reaction to something you mentioned about Alexander Madison leaving with a concussion, likely not to play a shout out Thomas Schaefer, our producer who keyed me onto a Ty Chandler touchdown run. That was explosive and called back due to a penalty. I think Chandler will add an explosive element to this Vikings offense.
Starting point is 00:17:40 Chandler is a player who I watched a lot of film at Tennessee. He was my diamond in the rough in that draft class. One year after Khalil Herbert being my dominant rough in the previous draft class. It hasn't proven correct yet, but maybe this is the opportunity that will showcase what he can bring to the NFL level. I believe he's an explosive runner. I think he's a better processor than people realize. And I think he adds just a different element of speed, just pure speed. We've seen what speed can add to backfields. Keaton Mitchell in Baltimore, Devin H and in Miami, this is a possible another,
Starting point is 00:18:10 another situation where, and I know the stats don't look great. Look 15 for 45. This is not a great team in the run game in general. They run a ton of zone. They don't have much nuance to their rushing attack, but on some of those plays that get Chandler to the outside, I think he might add a different level of explosion to this offense. So if Madison is out with a concussion, I move Chandler way up my rankings at running back for week 11. I think he's going to be a free agent in most leagues. If you need a one week starter at running back, I think he's definitely someone who should queue up and move to the top of your waiver wire and potentially be willing to use a lot of budget if you need a win this week in fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:18:45 Because I do think he could have a really good game. They'll be at Denver, Minnesota. And if you talk about the Vikings and you kind of miss something important, Schaefer's not going to let it slide. He's going to let you know about it for sure. He's a huge Vikings fan. He is, yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:00 They're on fire. Josh Downs played only 14% of the snaps. I really think you should not drop Josh Downs. He's barely played each of the last two weeks. He's 74% rostered. They're going into their bye. He scored 13.1 or more PPR fantasy points in all four games with Gardner Minshew starting.
Starting point is 00:19:17 And he had eight or more targets in three of those four games before really being hampered by a knee injury the last two weeks. The bye comes at a good time for Josh Downs. So if I were you, I would try to stick it out with Downs. Jonathan Taylor played 88% of the snaps. Looks like Zach Moss is done.
Starting point is 00:19:33 He's just a handcuff now. How about Juju Smith-Schuster? He played 99% of the snaps. And he played 84% out wide. And Juju had one target. And Parker will be back, I assume, in two weeks. So I don't know what it means, but if you're in a deep league, Juju's on the field all the time, but that was really disappointing.
Starting point is 00:19:50 Keaton Mitchell, he played 11 offensive snaps. His first snap was a 39-yard rushing touchdown. Keaton Mitchell's second snap was a 32-yard reception. His fifth snap was a drop ball in the end zone. I watched all of his snaps. There weren't a lot of them like i said only 11 for keaton mitchell figure out why didn't he play more i mean he did drop that ball wasn't like a terrible drop or anything but he did have one play i would say maybe his
Starting point is 00:20:15 worst play in pass protection he starts out on lamar jackson's right he goes to block the right side there's no one there to block he cuts across the pocket to go to the left side. But in doing so, he pumps into Lamar Jackson, who's trying to advance up into the pocket. So they kind of collide. Jackson gets sacked. I don't know. I mean, it looked like a bad play by Keaton Mitchell,
Starting point is 00:20:40 but I don't know. You know, I'm not a coach. I don't know what it was supposed to do there. I don't know why he didn't play'm not a coach. I don't know what it was supposed to do there. I don't know why he didn't play more. Like, how do you not... The first two plays that he's in there,
Starting point is 00:20:50 he accounts for about 65 yards and a touchdown, and he barely touches the ball. That makes no sense to me, but maybe it was the mistake in the pass protection. I don't know. Yeah, it's a good observation by you
Starting point is 00:21:02 because it really well could come down to that. If you don't... These teams that don't trust their running backs and pass protection don't play their running backs. Yeah. Taysom Hill ran 16 routes. Juwan Johnson ran 30 routes. George Pickens.
Starting point is 00:21:14 George Pickens. You forgot about one more thing from that game. What? A.T. Perry. He tied Chris Olave for the team lead in routes run with 42 in week 10. Another Jacob Gibbs. Nice. Oh,
Starting point is 00:21:27 I had a couple of comments about your impression. If you'd like me to share them, let's see it. It was not good. I wanted better. I should have watched more tape. Lindsay case. Oh,
Starting point is 00:21:35 let's go. Lindsay, eight and a half out of 10, but Adam Lee says amazing impression. Just as good as the performance of your barber. Adam Lee. I mean, Adam, look, the hair has grown back nicely. Yeah, it looks good.
Starting point is 00:21:51 Versus what we got over here from Hazer. No, this is one. Look, it's not a great hair day, but I actually got one of my better hair guys. And let me tell you. Look at that. I hope I didn't already talk about this on the air. I'm sorry if I'm repeating. I got to the barber. New guy.
Starting point is 00:22:05 I found my guy. I love the barbers that use the razor at the end. I do enjoy that, too. It's terrific. The straight edge. I almost feel like you can give me a terrible haircut, and if you give me the straight edge at the end, I'm fine with it.
Starting point is 00:22:20 It feels so good. It's so nice. George Pickens. There was this whole hubbub about him not being introduced with the starters. He ended up playing 95% of the snaps. He played more than anyone other than Pickett and the linemen, and he had a bad game.
Starting point is 00:22:34 James Conner, this was really interesting. James Conner was not the third down back. Tony Jones was the third down back. James Conner played 63% of the snaps. He got pretty much every carry by a running back. But this is a big deal. When James Conner was involved in the passing game and getting pretty much every snap,
Starting point is 00:22:53 he was top 12, maybe top five good with Kyler Murray. And even without Kyler Murray, just an absolute fantasy stud. I don't know why he didn't play on third downs. Maybe it was because it was his first game back. But this is definitely something to keep an eye on with James Conner. And by the way, Kyler Murray did not throw a pass to his running backs in week 10.
Starting point is 00:23:12 Jahan Dotson played 95% of the snaps. He had no catches on two targets at Seattle. Zach Charbonnet played three more snaps than Ken Walker. That is three straight games with more Charbonnet than Walker. But you know, Walker had 20. Walter doesn't catch that touchdown. It's a bad Walker game again. It is. And Will Levis.
Starting point is 00:23:28 I think the reason I liked Will Levis against Tampa Bay was because I thought Will Levis could throw the deep ball pretty well. Tampa Bay's really bad against that. Will Levis was one of 14 on past attempts of 15 or more air yards. He was really bad. Not good. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:43 Let's take a break. We'll do some film review and our four big topics when we come back. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request
Starting point is 00:23:57 can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report what's up everybody welcome back it's uh jacob gibbs here with dan schneier it's adam and dan that wasn't bad that wasn't bad
Starting point is 00:24:29 yeah he's got there's like a rhythm to his voice see adam the thing is i don't think he does that no he doesn't do that at all i need to watch more tape i need to watch he's never said the thing is he's way too smart this is my thing i gotta i'm working too much of my own isms into it the impression it's just it's no good i gotta watch the smartest guy we work with is who do you think did the best on their sats oh from that sample so i view smart and different so you're talking book smart not street smart you could do well i don't think any of us are all that stuff heath is probably street smart. Like I can't change a tire. I can't do anything.
Starting point is 00:25:06 Like I find myself to be more, one of the highest street smart people here. You are street smart. What do we mean by street smart? Like, I don't mean like I'm functional human being who can like fix a, something broken down or something like that and work with my hands. But I mean,
Starting point is 00:25:22 as far as being thinking wit, being able to respond to things fast. No, you're just talking about being witty. That's totally different than being street smart. I don't know. If I put you out in the street and asked you to survive, I don't think you'd be able to do it. Heath is the only one I'd have any faith in.
Starting point is 00:25:39 That's probably right. Heath is probably the only one who could survive out in the wilderness or something on the street. I don't even know what that means. But street smart to me is more like quick thinking, processing, which, by the way, Heath is very smart as well. We're all pretty good at that. But I would consider myself in the mix for that. I'm going to look up street smart and see what it means.
Starting point is 00:25:56 But as far as book smart goes, who's the best SAT score of all of us? Yeah, who do you think have the highest SATs? My guess would be RJ well including everybody just the people on the show just on the show the people on the show guess I'll default to Jacob yeah that's what I was thinking I think Chris is super smart
Starting point is 00:26:21 but I feel like he was a little bit of an academic underachiever back in high school. Yes. So, yes, I completely agree. And I think Chris is very street smart, too. My version and definition of what street smart would be. I'm trying to look up what street smart means. Powers would actually be one of probably the top for street smart, for what I consider. Like, as Schaefer said in the comments, you're confusing street smart with being MacGyver.
Starting point is 00:26:42 That's not what being street smart is. No, I'm not. It's not. Okay, this is what Google is saying. Or no, kidshealth.org. Knowing how to keep yourself safe from strangers when you're alone or with other kids. Obviously, no. This is not what I'm referring to.
Starting point is 00:26:54 Obviously not. Whether you're walking to school or the bus. Okay, being quick-witted and being street smart. That's like not even close to the same thing that's like being tall and being skinny they are completely i guess my whole life i've confused the two or at least just my whole life it considered that when people say your street start it means you're quick-witted that's what i've always assumed absolutely not like not even close um yeah this from office depot street smart is not getting killed in the bad part of town.
Starting point is 00:27:26 That's like part of it. It's just like being able to survive on your own. I don't know who wrote this. I love Dan Schneier. Thank you, Tyler. Someone wrote in an email or a tweet, like kind of ripping you and Jamie, and they spelled both of your names wrong.
Starting point is 00:27:41 And I was like, you can't, you lose right off the bat. What the hell are we talking about by the oh film review um you want to just get in the big topics or or what one quick thing on the film because uh shout out chris towers who wanted me to take a look at sam howell um because yeah was that your thing when you hear sam howell now you do a little how yeah it's kind of like yeah i don't mind it actually i kind of in some ways intrigued by it and find it interesting. But he was talking about how the sack rate for Sam Powell has been down from 12.7% in the first seven games to 4.6% past three. And he's had a leak high 153 dropbacks in those past three. So, you know, maybe there's been some progression from him. I know RJ White, we were discussing this as well. We talked about how there's been some offensive line changes. I got to say, Adam, the film wasn't what I was hoping it would be from a processing standpoint for how I still have too many examples of him just not processing things fast.
Starting point is 00:28:37 Third and four, 830 in the second quarter. For those who want to track this or check this out on NFL game, if you have the game film, this was a play he should have made. He had the look that BNME wanted him to get stick route from 82 for whatever reason, he's staring at it, but he doesn't trust it. He doesn't throw with anticipation. He takes the sack third and three later in the game, five Oh three quarter two, he's full pre-snap by Seahawks coverage. And they do a lot of trap coverages and things like that. He looks post-snap to where he expects things to be pre-snap.
Starting point is 00:29:06 It's a two-man concept. Instead, he's missing Terry McLaurin, the whole shot on the corner route. There's just too many examples still of slow processing, in my opinion, from Sam Howell for me to feel like he's made improvement in that regard. Now, he still does things that are better than a lot of NFL quarterbacks. The throw he made to get that game tied was a throw that I think one or two quarterbacks or three quarterbacks in the NFL quarterbacks. The throw he made to get that game tied was a quarterback that was a throw that I think like one or two quarterbacks or three quarterbacks in the NFL are making. He's throwing it into a non-existent window with anticipation with great ball placement. I also think his arm talent is incredibly underrated and has been since he was in the draft. Like I tweeted the day after
Starting point is 00:29:38 the draft, the day of the draft, it makes no sense that the NFL has overcorrected themselves after the year before of quarterbacks with Pickett and all those guys to let the guy like Sam Howell with his level of arm talent and the amount of starts he had at a power five school fall to round five. And it still doesn't make sense. The only guys who should be falling that late in drafts are guys with no arm talent. He has arm talent. And on the touchdown throw he had to Brian Robinson, he changed his arm slot. He does that a lot. The ability to roll out of tough,
Starting point is 00:30:05 muddy situations, some pockets he shouldn't escape some he should, but then be able to change his arm slot and get the football into a spot. And that's what he has the ability to do throw from different arm slots. It gives you such an advantage at the NFL level. If you're a quarterback who can change your arm slot versus that you need the over the top, you need the shoulder squared, you need the set base. And so he still has things that I think a lot of other quarterbacks don't have. But so as far as what Chris asked me to look for on tape, I don't really feel like his processing has really sped up or improved to a major degree. And that will obviously, you know, hurt them at times. Yeah. But, but the good news is, and this is something that our first big topic is about Brian Robinson. So I was just looking at their offense.
Starting point is 00:30:46 This is something that absolutely blew my mind. They have the highest pass rate in the NFL. They throw on a higher percentage of their snaps than any team in football. The commanders, that is so weird because the whole thing that I was nervous about in the offseason was that they fired their previous offensive coordinator because they wanted to be a more physical, weird because the whole thing that I was nervous about in the off season was that they fired their
Starting point is 00:31:05 previous offensive coordinator because they wanted to be a more physical downhill running team. And then they, that's why they brought in the enemy and they're not that at all. They, they barely run lowest run. The enemy comes from KC. So maybe we just made a mistake there because they were a pass first team. That's what the reporting was. That's, that was the report I read. I read it on the show and, um, there are anything but that right now was. That was the report I read. I read it on the show. And they're anything but that right now. They've morphed into a passing team. So more on that in a second. I watched
Starting point is 00:31:32 two players this morning. I really wanted to watch Josh Dobbs. I didn't get to that. But I watched Noah Brown. I wanted to see what all this is about. And I watched Kyler Murray because we had a question one of our topics is to pick five league winners that nobody saw coming. He's going to be one that I choose.
Starting point is 00:31:48 Noah Brown, I mean, so his role changed this past week with Nico Collins out. Noah Brown became an outside receiver. Usually he's playing in the slot, at least more often than not. That rhyme was hot. Recycling school, recycling's hot. Throwing trash on the ground is definitely not you like that what is that from parks and recs or something no it's actually something
Starting point is 00:32:09 uh i created as in a in a group project in sixth grade when i was in high school we did like some some greek era stuff uh, we performed like a little show and I created, my character's name was testicles. So that in what grade, uh, 11th, 10th or 11th. That's awesome.
Starting point is 00:32:32 Yeah, that's awesome. Um, you strike me as somebody who could have been in a different life, like a Trey Parker, Matt stone type. I don't know. You kind of look like one of those two too.
Starting point is 00:32:43 Don't you? Has anyone told you that? Which one do you look like? I'm going to look at it right now. And Thomas, look like one of those two too, don't you? Has anyone told you that? Which one do you look like? I'm going to look at it right now. And Thomas, if you're somebody, get me this. If I look like anyone, it'd be Matt Stone, but I don't look anything like him. It's only one of them.
Starting point is 00:32:52 It's definitely not the other one. Okay. I don't look like the blonde one. Yeah, I guess I was kind of wrong. Not at all. These are old pictures of them. When they were younger, you kind of looked like one of them. I'm thinking of Henry Rowan Gardner.
Starting point is 00:33:05 Anyway, Noah Brown, basically everything Noah Brown is getting is downfield. Over the last two weeks, I looked at wide receivers with eight or more targets, so a pretty low threshold. He is number one in explosive catch rate, number one in fantasy points per target, ninth in ADOT. He has 13 catches, Noah Brown, in his last two games. 13 catches, nine of them have his last two games. 13 catches,
Starting point is 00:33:26 nine of them have gone for 20 or more yards. It is big play after big play after big play. Sometimes he is completely wide open. Sometimes he makes a nice adjustment and CJ Stroud finds him. But for the most part, when I am amazed at Noah Brown, it's because I am amazed by CJ Stroud. CJ Stroud is playing so damn well, throwing the ball downfield so well. I'm a little skeptical that Brown can keep this going. I think if Nico Collins is back, I think you probably see fairly low target volume from Brown. And I'm not necessarily rushing to pick him up. Well, it's one of those things where I probably will put a claim in for him in any league
Starting point is 00:34:05 he's available. However, I won't be surprised if it's a bad claim, but you have to give yourself the opportunity to see if this goes somewhere. I look at him. I think he's kind of slow. I don't see him beating man coverage a lot. And I am fairly skeptical of players who make so many of their plays downfield. But the way CJ Stroud is playing, if Nico Collins misses another game,
Starting point is 00:34:26 I think Noah Brown as an outside receiver is a must start player. And it gets against Arizona next week too. So that could be awesome. Um, and Kyler Murray, I honestly, I thought he looked exactly like Kyler Murray with one exception. He did not throw the deep ball.
Starting point is 00:34:42 Well, he missed, missed Marquise Brown on the 28-yard touchdown. He threw deep to Rondale Moore. Didn't seem like a very good pass, although I think Moore wanted a pass interference or a legal contact. And then basically the game-winning play
Starting point is 00:34:55 was a deep completion to Trey McBride. Badly underthrown ball. McBride made a terrific play on it. But if he can get that back, then I do think he can be a league winner because he ran extremely well. How about that scramble on third and 10? Unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:35:07 13-yard pickup, but he probably ran for 70 yards on the play. He looked like Kyler. And I was really impressed and really encouraged. Got ourselves potentially a must start here. And he probably should have had, he could have had two touchdowns. I'll say one thing that would ruin him is if they keep this Clayton tune garbage up at the goal. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:30 I mean, they will keep that up though. Right? Like they're not going to go back to Kyle. I don't think because they don't want to, they want to keep it mouthy. It would have to be inside the one yard line. I think.
Starting point is 00:35:39 Sure. I still don't think that's going to hold them back anyway. All right, let's go to our four big topics. And we start with one from Scott Shanks. Is Brian Robinson Jr. a set-it-and-forget-it RB1? So Dan broke down the film on the Commanders. I'll just give a little background here.
Starting point is 00:35:55 Going into Week 10, Brian Robinson was the number 12 running back in full PPR, which is obviously not his format, and number 23 per game. Then he scored 27.7 points in week 10. He's currently RB1 in this week. He is now a top five running back for the season in every format. And per game, he's 12th in non-PPR,
Starting point is 00:36:22 13th in half, 15th per game in full PPR. So the question, Dan, is, is Brian Robinson Jr. a set it and forget it RB1? No, he's not. He's a fine set it and forget it RB2, I think, given the state of the running back position. But I watched the tape this week, and I actually think there was more reason to be discouraged than encouraged about Brian Robinson moving forward from a fantasy football standpoint. Why do I say that? Well, I say that because there were carries early and touches early in this game for Antonio Gibson, something we haven't seen at all, not at all, but at all times this season. Also,
Starting point is 00:36:59 Gibson was more effective as a runner in this game for whatever reason, maybe it was the concepts they were running or the down and distances tipping off plays to the opposing defense that is also always a part of it and a factor but gibson was more effective running the football in this game and on the plays that brian robinson made i charted them the plays in the past game he had six or seven or 119 on only one of those was it a designed first read throw to robinson the others were scramble plays where sam Howell off script found Brian Robinson. Now you could argue that that will continue,
Starting point is 00:37:30 but it doesn't seem like a good argument to make or a stable argument. It won't. You're right. Broken plays are hard to, you know, bank on happening over and over again. So I like that he's on the field for enough plays to get some of those broken throws, broken play throws from Sam Owl, but hard to count on those. And I've always felt like he's
Starting point is 00:37:50 a good talent. It's not a matter of talent for me. It's a matter of don't love how that offensive line blocks the run game. I don't really love their run concepts in general. Like you said, this is a drop back pass heavy team. It doesn't really have much of a groove at all in the run game. Felt like Gibson ran the ball better in this game and got more touches and snaps earlier than he usually did. So I'm fine just putting this dude as an RB2 based on talent alone and the fact that he isn't an offense that throws the running backs a decent amount, broken plays or not, but that's about the ceiling for me. But they don't really throw to him that much. This was such a departure from the norm. Six catches, 119 yards, and a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:38:26 Usually he's two catches a game on average. And what I would say is he's solid. RB2, like Dan said. But if you have Brian Robinson and you need to win right now, you need to get in the playoffs, I think you should trade him. I love him this upcoming week, week 11 against the Giants. That should be great for him. But his next three weeks are Dallas, Miami, and a bye.
Starting point is 00:38:50 And since I don't trust them to throw the ball to him, I don't think he's getting more than 10 to 12 carries in those games. He's been 10 or fewer carries in five of his last six games. They simply don't run the ball. So this is the right time because you've got this great matchup for Robinson this week and people might get excited about that. But I don't think based on right now what we've seen, I don't think I'm going to want to start him against Dallas.
Starting point is 00:39:14 I don't think I'm going to want to start him against Miami. And then he has a bye week. The fantasy playoffs are a little bit easier after that, but I'd be looking to sell Robinson. And look, I said he's 12th per game in non-PPR, 13th per game in half, 15th per game in full PPR. But on a per week basis, in his best format, non-PPR, only three top 12 finishes and only two finishes higher than RB12 in 10 weeks. So he typically does not get there. He's usually in the 15, 16 range, something like that on average. All right, next up we have from Paps.
Starting point is 00:39:51 Week 15 through 17, DST planning. I went a little further because I went beyond the assignment. That's what we do here. I looked at basically rest of season DST scheduling. And now's the time to start really thinking about schedules a little bit unless you're dan and you just say i don't really feel like doing this one adam you do the entire research on this one uh which is basically what happened that's fine i didn't say it exactly like that but it was largely like that i said you
Starting point is 00:40:22 do the research and i will will opine on your research and speak of what I've seen on film and schematically, next to the nose, on the teams that you mentioned. Well, the five best matchups for DSTs so far have been the Giants, the Patriots, the Panthers, the Jets, and the Bears. But I decided to replace the Bears with the Raiders,
Starting point is 00:40:46 because the Bears with Justin Fields might not be a good matchup. But I kept them in consideration. But the teams that have the best playoff schedules, or let's just start from here on out. The Kansas City Chiefs, on a bye this week, Philadelphia in week 11. They're currently 74% rostered. and they're a really good defense.
Starting point is 00:41:08 You should pick them up even to stash them against the Eagles if you don't want to play them against the Eagles. After the Eagles, they are at the Raiders, at the Packers, the Bills, and then your fantasy playoffs are the Patriots, the Raiders, and the Bengals. Four very favorable matchups there for the Chiefs, and they're good. I don't hate the Packers' schedule. Let me get a little in on the Chiefs real quick. Add something to this conversation since I didn't
Starting point is 00:41:36 do any of the research. Right, yeah, it's about time. This is the best job I've seen schematically from Steve Spagnuolo since his 2007 season and the 2007 Super Bowl run with the New York Giants. From watching some film, the big reason the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL this year is actually not the offense. It's Steve Spagnuolo's defense. He's mixing up coverages like I have never seen him before on the back end. He's not typically that type of coordinator, and he's doing things that are confusing opposing quarterbacks and leading to more sacks and more turnovers
Starting point is 00:42:07 and the things that help your fantasy schedule. Kansas City Chiefs, I believe, will be a difference-making defensive special. DST, moving forward, based on that and based on the schedule, they should be top priority for you right now. But move on to Green Bay. Yeah, well, they have a gauntlet right now. Chargers, Lions, Chiefs. But then their last four games, including the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:42:27 Kansas City, sorry, after Kansas City, Giants, Bucks, they're an okay matchup. Panthers, Vikings, not bad for Green Bay. Houston is a team I wanted to highlight. They get Tennessee twice in the playoffs, but they get Arizona. It's not great the next two weeks for Houston, so you don't have to own them, roster them now. Houston, Jackson, get Arizona. It's not great the next two weeks for Houston,
Starting point is 00:42:46 so you don't have to own them, roster them now. Houston, Jacksonville, or Arizona, Jacksonville. Then we've got this stretch. Denver, the Jets, the Titans, the Browns, and the Titans. So that's Houston, and they're not that bad defensively. If you want to stash the Rams at some point, they get the Giants in week 17, but you've got a while before that.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Right now, in the immediate future, I like the Dolphins. They get the Raiders, the Jets, Commanders, Titans, and Jets. Their week 16 and 17 games are Dallas and Baltimore, so forget about the Dolphins then. But the next five weeks, the Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans, Jets for the Dolphins. They should be pretty healthy coming out of the bye, too. Let's see.
Starting point is 00:43:32 There was Cleveland, which is widely rostered DST. They've got good schedule going forward, including the Jets in Week 17. Detroit. Let's see. I've got Detroit. I've got Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, and Chicago, and Denver in their next five games. Detroit's looking good there. And Cincinnati.
Starting point is 00:43:48 Let's see. Cincinnati at Baltimore this week. That might not be good, but then it's Pittsburgh. I think we're basically just looking at the last three or four weeks for Cincinnati. Colts, Vikings, Steelers. Eh, forget Cincinnati. Let's take them off. So the Chiefs are great.
Starting point is 00:44:01 The Texans could be really good for their last four games. The Dolphins, not in in the playoffs but in the more immediate future the Lions could be good down the stretch and that's pretty much it two defenses that have awful playoff schedules are the Eagles no no no I'm sorry
Starting point is 00:44:21 I'm sorry the Eagles have Seattle the Giants and the Cardinals they have a terrible schedule coming. The Eagles have Seattle, the Giants, and the Cardinals. They have a terrible schedule coming up. The Eagles have the Chiefs, Bills, Niners, and Cowboys. I don't think they're worth rostering. They haven't been a good enough DST to begin with. Chiefs, Bills, Niners, Cowboys. I would drop the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:44:37 The Ravens are interesting. In their fantasy playoffs, they get the Jaguars and Niners on the road, and then the Dolphins at home. And the Raiders are going to be a reason why a lot of people make their fantasy playoffs, they get the Jaguars and Niners on the road, and then the Dolphins at home. And the Raiders are going to be a reason why a lot of people make their fantasy playoffs. They've been such a great DST. They've had a very easy schedule. I would say let's maybe play it by ear. Let's see what happens. But at Jacksonville, at San Francisco, and Miami, if you're in a league where defenses get traded, you want to trade the Ravens for the Chiefs or something like that, I think that's fine as part of a bigger deal.
Starting point is 00:45:08 Let's take another break here, and when we come back, we've got league winners and running back rankings rest of season. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. All right, we're back to talk about league winners. Zuma says, going forward, who are the top five league winners that no one expected? And also, can you tell me what kids show Zuma is in are you asking me that or you ask that question as well
Starting point is 00:45:33 no I know the answer I have kids of course I can't tell you that I don't have any kids it's obviously Paw Patrol come on Paw Patrol I've never heard of Paw Patrol until today. I can't wait for you to have kids in some time in the next four years or so. And I get to go through all of the,
Starting point is 00:45:51 I get to relive all of these experiences through you. Anyway, top five league winners for you that no one expected. So I'm going to start with Tankdale. Tankdale is the one I want to start with here for a multitude of reasons. First of all, shout out Jacob Gibbs. I just call them Gibbs because I said I was.
Starting point is 00:46:10 And sometimes I do. You know, you know, the Heath Keith thing where I never said Keith. And for some reason, you guys tried to say I said Keith, even though I definitely said Heath. But it rolled off the tongue weird. And I do that sometimes when I'm too fast. Right. From one week. Like when I cursed last week.
Starting point is 00:46:22 But also, you still can't say. No, that was an actual curse. No, it wasn't. you still can't say... No, that was an actual curse. No, it wasn't. You still can't say Devon A. Chan. Like earlier today, you were Devin A. Chan. So you just, you never get both names right. No, I say Devon A. Chan. You definitely do not say Devon A. Chan.
Starting point is 00:46:37 We'll check the tape. You know those commercials where they throw the challenge flag? I would love to do that right now. Yeah, you got that. Okay, well, Tank Dell's going to make the list for me. Shout out Jacob Gibbs. He joined the 30, 30 club, which Gibbs talks about 30, uh, with a 36% target share and a 30, uh, six, uh, 9% are air yardage share. I think when it comes down to tank Dell, for me, I look at him as a player whose film at Houston was unbelievable. He wanted all
Starting point is 00:47:01 three levels, which is rare about three to five receivers. I watch every draft class when at all three levels. What do I mean by that? I mean, he wins on the inter on the immediate routes, the quick slants, the quick outs, the quick in breaking routes, the stuff designed around the line scrimmage. He wins on the intermediate level, the deep ends, the digs out the deep outs. And then he wins on the vertical plane as well, creating separation. And he does it against man coverage as well. And this is why CJ Stroud made it a point to tell the Texans to draft this guy. This is why CJ Stroud looks for him in big moments. This is why CJ Stroud is going to continue to come his way with the football. We see it in the target share percentages. We see it in the area percentage. He can beat you
Starting point is 00:47:39 in a multitude of ways, tanked out just because he's five, eight doesn't mean he's only a slot receiver. He proved that at Houston he's proven already at the nfl level so i think he can be one of his league winners no one expects to be over the stretch run just dominating targets making big plays making bomb touchdowns for the texans down the line as that offense continues to grow and as cj stroud continues to dominate so he was the guy i want to put top of my list adam another guy i want to throw in there next on the list is trey mcbride okay trey mcbride on a per route vegas uh basis and this is a jacob gibbs stat so i am going to try jacob gibbs impression part two yeah yeah adam a guy i really want to
Starting point is 00:48:22 talk about trey mcbride so well no it'd be more like a guy i really want to talk about trey mcbride so well no it'd be more like a guy i really want to talk about is trey mcbride that's the guy i really want to talk about is trey mcbride i'm curious if you guys are seeing this starting to dig in some really really interesting numbers on trey mcbride yeah keep going keep going trey mcbride has been as good as any tight end in the nfl in 2023 routes run 246 for travis kelsey 174 for train mcbride target per route run rate how about this one kelsey 29 train mcbride 28 this is not how he speaks this is if you somehow like if your soul went into the body of jacob gibbs like this is not a jacob gibbs impression this is you talking differently i didn't watch enough tape but
Starting point is 00:49:11 target per route run rate for jiff for travis kelsey 29 28 mcbride yards per route run mcbride is pacing with travis kelsey with 2.4 versus 2.43 this dude is somehow the focal point of the passing game we thought maybe earlier in the year it of the passing game. We thought maybe earlier in the year, it was Josh Dobbs. We thought maybe that, no, this is the new system in Arizona and it operates through its tight end. We saw it with Zach Ertz. We're seeing it now with Trey McBride, who offers more juice and more toward the passing game than Zach Ertz can at this point in his career. We saw it with a new quarterback with the change from Dobbs to Kyler Murray. And I don't see any reason why it won't continue.
Starting point is 00:49:45 He's pacing, putting up big elite type numbers and getting crazy amounts of target share and targets. So I think Trey McBride could essentially be the league winner. Another league winner that no one expects. That was Dan's jibs impression. All right. Let's go a little faster here because i still have to get my five in okay then then and three is going to be giovante williams we talked about him a lot on last week's beyond the box score very excited to see where he goes tonight in this game against the bills
Starting point is 00:50:14 against the defense that plays a lot of too high but just think about this his avoided tackle rate splits were 13 in the first four games and 23 since returning from that injury he had mid-season and that just kind of shows where he's evolving into. So I think he can be it. And then David Montgomery, throw my boy in there, David. I mean, look at him, Adam. It breaks off a long touchdown run. I don't know, but I heard in week five beyond the box score about five weeks ago from Adam.
Starting point is 00:50:37 He can't break off the big, long touchdown run without stepping out of bounds, without stepping out of bounds. Didn't step out of bounds. He didn't. He did not. Without stepping out of bounds. He didn't step out of bounds. He was inbound. He didn't. He did not. No, good for him. I don't know if he's going to be a league winner because he doesn't catch any passes and isn't the predetermined goal line guy anymore,
Starting point is 00:50:55 so it seems. But no, he's going to be worth starting. We'll be ranking him in our next big topic. And who's your last guy? And the last guy for me, somebody you brought up a little bit earlier, but Jonathan Taylor, I mean, maybe you don't call it unexpected, but it's pretty much being unexpected considering where people have felt about him for the last two months. And he
Starting point is 00:51:13 dominates the backfield in week 10, 23 of 24 rush attempts. This according to Jacob Gibbs, 89% stat rate, 79% route participation rate. That's the part that really excites me. They're really getting him involved as a receiver in this new offense with Shane Steichen. So, and that's been something that's kind of been trending toward in the right direction, all of his career at the NFL level after I think he received like,
Starting point is 00:51:32 I think he had like 13 total receptions at Wisconsin or something. And an insanely low number there. My five are say with me, Dan Devon, a Chan Devon, a Chan, he's going to be a league winner. Michael Pitt, man, his six games that He's going to be a league winner. Michael Pittman.
Starting point is 00:51:46 His six games that he's played with Gardner Minshew, he has a 31% target share. And Pittman's 17-game pace. He's not good yardage on the catches, but his 17-game pace is 125 catches. Just under 1,300 yards and six touchdowns on almost 11 targets. It's about 10.5 targets per game.
Starting point is 00:52:06 So Pittman, he has had a very tough schedule recently. Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, and New England, actually. I mean, they give up a lot of points to wide receivers, but go look at who they've played. They've played maybe the hardest wide receiver schedule, and he's come through with big games, good or big games in every one. His schedule gets easier after this. So Pittman's going to be a league winner.
Starting point is 00:52:27 My only concern is that they get super run heavy, which they want to do. But they have some tougher opponents on there. I don't know that they'll be able to. Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid I put on there. But they are pretty interesting because if things stay the way they are, then Kincaid and McBride are going to be awesome. But Dawson Knox and Zach Ertz are eligible to return in week 12. I haven't heard anything
Starting point is 00:52:48 on either of them. I would assume Knox stays out a little longer than that because he had surgery. But I don't know what happens when those guys come back. I feel like for Arizona, it won't be a big deal
Starting point is 00:53:01 that it'll be McBride. For Buffalo, they might go back to the way things were because as much as we like it for Kincaid, there's a lot of talk what's wrong with Buffalo's offense. I think they really value Dawson Knox and their two tight end sets. So I could see Kincaid falling off, but we'll see. And Kyler Murray was my last guy.
Starting point is 00:53:24 So A-chan, Pittman, two tight ends, McBride and Kincaid, and Kyler Murray. Jonathan wants us to rank these running backs rest of season. Okay. Montgomery, Gibbs, Swift, Rashad White, A-Chan, and Keaton Mitchell. He's got them all. He has BS. He has all of them. Did you yawn?
Starting point is 00:53:47 Was that a yawn? Maybe, but it has nothing to do with any quality of the show. This is just a natural human body reaction. Sometimes there are yawns that happen. Okay, Adam, and that was less of a yawn, more of a, I'm drinking a seltzer and I need to digest.
Starting point is 00:54:02 It's like a weird digestion thing that happens sometimes with seltzers. Sure. You know what? You're lucky I never drink seltzer and you know i need to digest it's like a weird digestion thing that happens sometimes with seltzers uh sure you know what you're lucky i never drink seltzer so i can't say how ridiculous that is but that absolutely no and nothing will ever top your ridiculous take that seltzer is completely different than water completely different from water it's not even close you just add carbonation to water that is water just carbonated that can't be completely different it's completely different red versus blue. Completely different is coffee versus tea. Completely different is street smarts versus water. Street smarts
Starting point is 00:54:29 versus wit is completely different. I learned that one today, and you are right. You have no credibility in this area. Anyway, we're talking about both Lions running backs, DeAndre Swift, Rashad White, Devon Achan, and Keaton Mitchell.
Starting point is 00:54:47 Okay. Unfortunately, I have to put Keaton Mitchell last. I think that's the easiest one right now. It doesn't mean it'll stay that way, but that's what you have to do right now. You want to rank them first? Sure. Up to you.
Starting point is 00:55:00 To no one's surprise, David Montgomery's my 1-1 here. Get the hell out of here. You mean? Really? How is this a get the hell out of there kind of take? Tell me who else definitely belongs ahead of him. I think I would take Swift over him. I would.
Starting point is 00:55:15 I would have to take Swift over him. No way would I take Swift over him. I'm sorry, not Swift. Not Swift. Gibbs. I'd have to take Jacob. I'd have to take Jibbs over him. Well, you could take Jacob over him.
Starting point is 00:55:23 But as far as Jameer Gibbs goes, I was close. Gibbs is my number two, so it's Monty, then Gibbs for me. I was back and forth between them, but I just trust Montgomery's role more. And I know they're starting to get creative at using Gibbs in the red zone, but I think it's going to lean back toward Montgomery toward the end of the season. And I just really love the Lions offensive line, their play caller. This is an offense that works there's so few nfl offenses that work i want guys and offenses that work especially in the run game
Starting point is 00:55:50 where there's even fewer offenses that work so i have those two one and two i have hn3 your boy who could be a league winner according to you rashad white four deandre swift five here's my thing with swift why he's lower on the list i haven't liked what i've seen from swift i think a lot of swifter this year was great blocking from the Eagles offensive line, opening up mass, massive holes. And that's not happening to the same degree. Now hurts being hurt. Jalen hurts being injured.
Starting point is 00:56:14 Doesn't help playing hurt. Doesn't help the entire offense at all. And I think Swift is a candidate to potentially get injured. It's been, you know, a very injury prone player in his career. And if not, i've already seen your one one on this list has been hurt twice already this year and you're gonna play the injury card on the injury card out of swift i take the injury card i'll say this kenneth gamewell has played more snaps lately uh than than he did during swift's big breakout run um and just
Starting point is 00:56:40 generally speaking i haven't liked what i've seen from Swift lately. I never, not necessarily sure I ever did as an individual with the, with the Eagles this year outside of the speed. Um, and so, yeah, I would go him. And then obviously last would be Keaton Mitchell. I have a very different order than you. And some people are ranking these in the chat and they have very different orders too. So it's, it's hard. It's, it's really hard.
Starting point is 00:57:01 Um, Gibbs one, H and two two no h and one gibbs two no gibbs one h and two i guess i have some some concern about workload for h and and if he can stay healthy well you just you just love explosive backs like that can break a big one what about david montgomery who does all the little things right? You've got to have a role in the passing game. Do you, if you're on that good of an offense? I agree with you in general. Trust me, don't paint me in that corner of not leaving in a passing game,
Starting point is 00:57:35 running backs. But when you're one of these guys, like the Derrick Henry, the guys who are just behind an amazing O-line, the offense functions at a high level. The only thing that scares me is what you said earlier. Will he lose some of the red zone role that was all his earlier in the year? I just tend to believe that he'll get most of that back. All right, I'm going Gibbs, A-Chan. The last two are going to be White and Mitchell. Swift versus Montgomery is very difficult for me at 3-4.
Starting point is 00:58:02 I guess I'll go Montgomery because Swift has not been running the ball well. I'm hoping that he'll have a little resurgence coming off the bye. He doesn't get involved in the pass game that much either. What do you love him? Of course he does. Look at his game log. I'm looking at the game log now. 5-4-3-2-1
Starting point is 00:58:19 until Dan is wrong. Ready? 5-4-3-2-1 There's a good chance Adam will be right because he is. He's a stack chance Adam will be right because he is. He's a stack. He knows stats better than I do. Eh, eh, I don't know. No, actually, I was 100% correct. What are you talking about? I'm looking at it right now.
Starting point is 00:58:35 Let me tell you because I have it right in front of me. His targets in the last three games, two, three, and two. It's a lot better than Montgomery and the targets in the three... That's not good. Two, three, and two is good. How lot better than Montgomery. And the targets in the 3... That's not good. 2, 3, and 2 is good? How about the three games before that?
Starting point is 00:58:48 He had 20 targets in those three games. No, he had 8, 6, 14. Then he had 1, 3, 1 in the three games before that. Wait a second. You're looking at catches. There are three different sample sizes. You're looking at catches, not targets. No, I'm looking at targets.
Starting point is 00:59:01 You are so street smart, you can't tell the difference between targets and catches. No, I'm looking at targets right now. Weeks 1, 2, and 3. He had 2, 3, and 2 targets. You are so street smart, you can't tell the difference between targets and catches. Nope, I'm looking at targets right now. Weeks one, two, and three. He had two, three, and two targets. You didn't say... Weeks six, seven, eight, and nine. He had three, three, and two.
Starting point is 00:59:12 Yes, and you incorrectly said weeks four, five, and six. You said eight, six, and four. It was 10, six, and four. That equals 20. 10, six, and four. I was right. For targets, for targets.
Starting point is 00:59:20 Yes, exactly, for targets. All right. So with one three-game stretch, he had a lot of targets. In two of the three three-game stretches, he had no targets. All right, So it's one three game stretch. He had a lot of targets in two of the three three game stretches. He had no targets. All right. Well, how about just for the season? DeAndre Swift has 35 targets in nine
Starting point is 00:59:31 games. David Montgomery great. David Montgomery has what? How many 10 targets? I don't even know. It's probably a bad, bad step. Are you 10 targets in six games versus 30? I'm not comparing those two from a target standpoint, by the way. I'm just saying.
Starting point is 00:59:47 If you're saying. Okay. I'd say Swift has a role in the passing game. Montgomery doesn't. All right. Call that a big role in the passing game. Three and a half targets per game. It's not great, but it's better than one and a half.
Starting point is 01:00:02 All right. I wasn't saying comparing him to Montgomery. I was comparing him versus the NFL and versus what we need as fantasy managers. Yeah, okay. Anyway, what do you think tastes more similarly? Coke and Pepsi? Yes.
Starting point is 01:00:16 Or water and seltzer? Water and seltzer, obviously. Are you kidding me? What are you, crazy? Are you kidding me? Art, are you crazy? Are you kidding me? Are you crazy? No, you're crazy. Coke and Pepsi don't taste anything alike. They have different sugary flavors. I mean, yes, they taste different. Water and seltzer taste it. If you have a regular seltzer, I do the flavored seltzers. Those don't count. If you do a regular seltzer versus a water,
Starting point is 01:00:41 it tastes exactly the same minus the carbonation. Minus the carbonation gives it somewhat of a taste. It doesn't give it a massively different taste though. Yes, it does. How can anyone say that water, oh my God, how can anyone say that water and seltzer are completely different things when they are the same thing but add carbonation? Okay. If you add carbonation and you add sugar, the ingredients are exactly the same. Every drink, every drink has water in it, man. Like every drink is water. I know every drink has multiple ingredients in it. That's what makes them different. Seltzer and water have the same ingredients in it.
Starting point is 01:01:17 Dude, you are getting crushed in the chat. You're getting crushed by logic. Seltzer and water have the same ingredients in it. Pepsi and Coke have different ingredients. This is definitely in it. Pepsi and Coke have different ingredients. This is definitely a Twitter poll. Milk and Coke have different ingredients. Let's let Schaefer opine and we'll sign off. Milk was a bad call.
Starting point is 01:01:33 Milk was a bad choice. Schaefer, what do you think? Which two things taste more alike? Coke and Pepsi or water and seltzer? Water and seltzer. Obviously. Water and seltzer. The only thing that's different is it's carbonated right i know but it's a huge difference huge difference according to you and there's no sugar in it you try to say that there's sugar in seltzer there's no sugar no no i'm not saying i
Starting point is 01:01:59 didn't say that there's no sugar in seltzer i'm saying you're saying oh seltzer's the same as water it just has carbonation in it. Okay, well, Coca-Cola has that plus some sugar. Like, it's just, they're all water. They're all water-based. But the carbonation makes things taste so different. That was a random, that rant made no sense. You need to check the YouTube poll, too.
Starting point is 01:02:19 Who has more street smarts, Acer or Dan? Oh, no. That's a good one. I'm always going to lose these. I'm always going to lose these. I'm always going to lose these. No, I'm definitely in your tier of bad Street Smarts. Yeah, at least I know what they are. Dan would be, like, abandoned on a mean street somewhere,
Starting point is 01:02:35 and he'd be like, oh, well, let me tell you this quick joke about the horse that ran into the bar. You know, like, oh, okay, we'll leave this guy alone. All right, we're out of here, everybody. Thanks. Thanks for another fun're out of here, everybody. Thanks. Thanks for another fun edition of Beyond the Box score. And we'll talk to you tomorrow
Starting point is 01:02:50 with the waiver wire. Actually, we have a show tonight. We have a show tonight, 7.30. Yeah, baby. Live stream tonight with Treat Smart, Heath, and Tara.
Starting point is 01:02:59 We'll talk to you later. See ya.

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