Fantasy Football Today - Biggest Backfield Battles! (06/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 28, 2022

We're keeping an eye on a lot of backfields in training camp, but we'll start with the Chiefs (1:25) and Dolphins (3:00). We talk about what to expect in these backfields and which running backs have ...the best draft values right now. Then we compare the Packers and Browns backfields (7:25) and discuss Kareem Hunt's role and why he could be a steal ... Quick news and notes (14:25) and back to the backfield battles. We discuss the Broncos (17:35), Seahawks (21:00) and Falcons/Texans (25:10). Is Melvin Gordon a better value than Javonte Williams? Should Rashaad Penny be drafted ahead of Ken Walker? ... A look at some other backfields to monitor (34:10) including the Cowboys, Packers, Eagles and Jaguars. Find out why Jamey and Dave disagree on Miles Sanders ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:22 He's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What will the backfields look like in Miami? What will the split look like in Denver, in Houston? Do we have room for a rookie running back in Houston or Atlanta maybe to emerge as a must-start guy? What about Seattle? They drafted Ken Walker in the second round, but is it really going to be Rashad Penny's job to lose?
Starting point is 00:01:45 We'll talk about the biggest backfield battles, plus, you know, a little bit on the Cowboys, the Packers, the Cleveland Browns, those types of splits here on Fantasy Football Today on your Tuesday edition. And we have a live mock draft on YouTube coming up later. I'll tell you about that Tuesday afternoon at 1 p.m. Eastern. I'm Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Dave Richard. Jamie, we welcome Dave back here.
Starting point is 00:02:05 And should we wish him a happy birthday or no? I can't believe you don't know Dave's birthday. That's pretty... Happy birthday, Dave. It's totally fine. Thank you very much. You're about a month early. Okay.
Starting point is 00:02:17 Jamie tricked me and said it was your birthday. Dave, in honor of being back, you get to go first. If you're going to give me one backfield battle, the most important one for fantasy in training camp, what do you think it is? The most important one for fantasy? Can I just kind of change it to the one I'm most intrigued by?
Starting point is 00:02:39 Because it can end up being very important for fantasy. I want to know what Andy Reid's doing, because he's got Ronald Jones there, and he brought back Derek McKinnon. What are you going to do with Clyde Edwards-Hilaire? You could literally get by with Rojo and McKinnon for however long they're healthy for in an offense that really is going to be Patrick Mahomes-centric. That's a team that's going to throw the ball a lot. So I'm curious what they're thinking.
Starting point is 00:03:05 Maybe are they just throwing as many bodies as they can at the position? Don't forget they have Derek Gore. It's an interesting group there. I'd like to see something defined so that we can take advantage of it in fantasy. I am scared we're going to see a two- to four-headed monster that's going to really piss us off. Okay, if we look at average draft position right now on Fantasy Pros, start using Fantasy Pros a little bit more,
Starting point is 00:03:32 Clyde Edwards-Ziller is RB25. He's going 62nd overall. And Ronald Jones is going 117th overall. He's RB41. That's worth the price right there. Okay. And is it even worth drafting Jarek McKinnon? If it's full PPR with one of your last picks,
Starting point is 00:03:49 you could take a chance. We saw how involved he was late last year and in the playoffs. He was in his last four games, including three playoff games. He had three catches, six catches, five catches, and three catches. He was really good for them.
Starting point is 00:04:01 All right, Jamie, give me the backfield battle you'll be watching. The Miami Dolphins. You know, with a team that should certainly be very good at running the ball in some capacity because of the system that they're bringing into place with Mike McDaniel being the running back coordinator from the 49ers.
Starting point is 00:04:17 I would hope that somebody can emerge as the lead guy. You know, Chase Edmunds seems the most likely because of his skill set to do everything, but we know Raheem Mostert has been successful and healthy, and he comes with Mike McDaniel from San Francisco. Sonny Michel is coming off a strong season last year as a backup slash starter in Los Angeles for the Rams. And so those three guys competing for that job and whatever, maybe they still do with Myles Gaskin or even Savan Ahmed. I doubt it's one of those two, but still the first three guys, someone will hopefully emerge as at least someone you can use. I would like to say for the beginning of the season, but maybe for
Starting point is 00:04:49 the majority of the season, but we know most of us have a hard time staying healthy and Edmonds, you know, has never really been a featured guy. So we'll see how this all shakes out, but that's the one that intrigues me the most. And do you want a piece of that backfield, that Dolphins backfield? At the right price. Edmonds, I think, is still okay based on where he's going. Sixth, seventh round. If you're just looking at the history of San Francisco, it's always
Starting point is 00:05:14 been take the last guy. I think Sonny Michel is probably going to end up being the last guy. If Mostert's healthy, I'd take a shot on Mostert late if he's ready for training camp. You're right. In ADP, it's Edmonds 93rd, Mostert 14 healthy, though, yeah, I'd take a shot on Mostert late if he's ready for training camp. Yeah, you're right. In ADP, it's Edmunds 93rd, Mostert 143rd, and Michel 182nd. All right.
Starting point is 00:05:32 How many carries per game do you think Chase Edmonds gets if either Mostert or Michel is healthy as a running mate? Twelve. Ooh. Twelve carries per game if everybody's healthy I think they'll mix and match Chase Edmonds has 7 games in his career
Starting point is 00:05:52 with 12 or more carries and how many of them were last year 1 no no no I'm sorry I'm sorry 1, 2, 3 5 but Connor wasn't healthy I'm sorry. One, two, three, five. Right.
Starting point is 00:06:06 But Connor wasn't healthy for some of them. How did he do in those games? You got it. What can you run down? Yeah. I don't know exactly. Let's see. I'll look it up.
Starting point is 00:06:19 Six games. Oh, no, that's James Connor. Let's see. Chase Edbids. All right. Yeah. Okay. Do I have it?
Starting point is 00:06:25 Come on, please. I'm going to have it in about a minute. Damn it. I should have it in fewer than that. But what I would tell you is that they... He went 15 for 81, 12 for 120, 12 for 63. Uh-huh. This is good.
Starting point is 00:06:37 The 12 for 63 had 4 for 43 catching the ball. 12 for 120 had 4 for 19 catching the ball. 15 for 81, one catch for nine yards. And then the two at the end of the season when connor wasn't there he had 16 for 56 in the touchdown 8 for 71 in the air 18 for 53 and then 5 for 29 all right so let me give you this i bet he ends up getting a pretty good opportunity to get 12 carries per game in the early going and if he stinks with it they've got a plan B and a plan C. Okay, whenever Edmonds has gotten work, he's been very productive.
Starting point is 00:07:12 He's had nine games in his career with double-digit carries. Six of them came last season. In those nine games, his per-game averages in his career, his per-game averages, if you put them in 2021, he would have been RB8 in both non-PPR and full PPR. You know, he had one huge game, that game against the Giants, his first game of his career with more than 10 carries.
Starting point is 00:07:34 Right, 2019. 2019, yeah. 27 carries for 126 yards, three touchdowns. But, yeah, 12 carries per game, that's interesting. He's only had five games in his career with more than 12 carries.
Starting point is 00:07:49 But all right, hopefully. But you go back to last year when he was the lead guy ahead of Connor. He had three of his first four games with at least 11 carries. So they were giving him those opportunities. Remember, and they were also winning those games. And we saw Connor come in late in the game
Starting point is 00:08:02 with some clock killing opportunities when the game was well out of hand. So he may have had more work in a couple of those games. One of saw Conor come in late in the game with some clock-killing opportunities when the game was well out of hand. So he may have had more work in a couple of those games. One of those was Jacksonville in Week 3. So we'll see. It's a scenario where he could be very good. He also could just stink because of multiple guys being there and taking the ball away from him. All right.
Starting point is 00:08:24 I want to talk about the – this isn't a backfield battle necessarily, but maybe an undervalued player in Kareem Hunt. Do you guys see a big difference between Kareem Hunt and A.J. Dillon? In NFC ADP, A.J. Dillon is going in round six, 68th overall. Kareem Hunt, 92nd overall, late round eight. I'll look in fantasy pros, but do you see a big difference between the two, A.J. Dillon and Kareem Hunt? Well, yes. If you stand
Starting point is 00:08:52 in next to each other, it's clear. That's the first part. Go ahead. Go ahead, Dave. Well, I don't like that he's coming off a season with four separate injuries and I also don't like that he's got a guy behind him who might be as good of a rusher
Starting point is 00:09:07 if not better in Dearness Johnson. And there have been some slight rumblings about Kareem Hunt not being a part of the Browns for much longer. I don't know if I necessarily buy into that, especially if the team doesn't have a good quarterback solution
Starting point is 00:09:24 to begin the season. They can go running back heavy. They definitely need somebody behind Nick Chubb that they trust. Hunt is that guy. Dearness Johnson might be that guy. We'll see what happens there, but that could quickly devolve into a two-headed machine if Nick Chubb gets hurt, because I think they like what they saw from Dearness Johnson last year. I look at Kareem Hunt as a number three running back. I'm not drafting him in the same lens that I drafted him in last year, whereas A.J. Dillon, for sure, the 1B in Green Bay, he had nearly as many touches per game as Aaron Jones to finish up last season
Starting point is 00:10:01 and into the playoffs. They like what they've gotten him. I wonder if he takes over in short yardage situations and takes that work away from Aaron Jones. That's another team that has some questions about its passing game. At least it's receivers, not really passing. Cause you know,
Starting point is 00:10:15 Aaron, they do. I think, yeah, it's fair with the receivers. It's a question. And so they could load up on the run and both those guys could get a good amount of work in there.
Starting point is 00:10:23 There will definitely be games this year. I'm looking at like that game against the lions that they'll play where they could just run down their throats they could each have 15 carries in that game they might get to 20 touches each in that game so i i'm far more interested to take dylan ahead of hunt and i i honestly i look at hunt as someone who's not going to be as productive as he was in the past, unless Nick Chubb gets hurt. And even when that happens, I think Dearness Johnson will mix in a little bit more than he might have last year, the year before. I agree with Dylan over Hunt. I would do that. But I think Dave, you're selling Hunt a little short because by all indications,
Starting point is 00:11:01 and this was just a report in June that he's going to still be a part of the team. And they were on the field a lot together during OTAs in terms of Hunt and Nick Chubb. I think Jacoby Brissett is a dream for Kareem Hunt because they're going to be in a lot of third down and long situations. And Nick Chubb will not be on the field in those scenarios. And Kareem Hunt could potentially be on the field a ton in those scenarios. And we saw that even with the Dolphins, you know, where Jacoby Brissett got a chance to play. And he was just dumping off to his running backs again he's got you know the inability to look down the field and have success as you said adam uh he's a fantasy nightmare
Starting point is 00:11:33 poison um brissett is um i think it's great for kareem hunt's situation as a pass catcher so i i think his value is unbelievable um because of the situation you know today that his he's he's an injury away from even if Dearness Johnson's getting some touches which I would expect Kareem Hunt will get the majority of work because he was getting the majority he was getting significant enough work in tandem with Nick Chubb last season before I got hurt and he was awesome in those first six games as he tends to be when he's on field. 17.8 PPR points per game in his first five. It's true. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:06 I mean, he's still, I think, a significant piece of this offense. So where you can get him is great. Yes, he should be drafted as a number three running back, but the upside is league winner, and the downside is somebody that you can still use as a flex. And the last three seasons, Cleveland running backs have rushed for 12 which isn't great 18 and 17 touchdowns the last two seasons 35 rushing touchdowns just by the running backs and in three games without baker mayfield in 2021 not that he was so great but he was better than the backup
Starting point is 00:12:37 uh quarterbacks the backup quarterbacks didn't even throw for 200 yards in any of those three games cleveland ran the ball running backs just running back carries 28 24 and 35 times um so I did want to bring that up I think 92nd is really late and he's actually Kareem Hunt is going 77th and fantasy pros that might be more accurate but 92nd feels like incredible value for him where did you get him Jamie in the late sixth round yeah almost the end of the sixth round, which would have been 71st overall, I think. Here's just the targets from Myles Gaskin last year in the games that Jacoby Brissett played. Five, six, ten, and six.
Starting point is 00:13:16 It was that Bucs game where he had like ten catches, right? Ten targets, ten catches, 74 yards, and two touchdowns. But just the targets. Right. So five, six, ten 74 yards, and two touchdowns. But just the targets. Right. So 5, 6, 10, 6, and 6. I mean, it's Jacoby Brissett's dream for Greenwood. Let's get into more backfield battles. What did he have in those games?
Starting point is 00:13:35 He had 20-1, 12-1, 5-1, 13-0. So there's room for Hunt to get some carries on top of the catches then with Brissette. Well, I mean, it's a different offense. The Browns are going to run the ball no matter what. The Dolphins were scared to run the ball last year, understandably so. And so when you have that offensive line, that coach, these two backs, you lose Deshaun Watson, which we all expect is probably going to happen today. And if they do stick with Brissette, mean you know there's some rumblings that they
Starting point is 00:14:05 may go after garoppolo if he's cheap and available uh once he's released by san francisco which would just be crazy if they still had baker on the roster uh but in any event um yeah i think if you if you uh if you like kareem hunt you're almost rooting for jacoby brissette to be the starter for the browns okay let's uh talk about this afternoon. Scott Fish is actually in the chat right now. He's watching our show, and he'll be on our live stream because we're doing a Scott Fish Bowl mock, and there's some wacky scoring
Starting point is 00:14:32 and some unique rules that you got to know about if you're in the Scott Fish Bowl or just interested in it. It is a super flex league. It is tight end premium. So if you're in any types of those leagues, you're going to love this live stream, 1 p.m. Eastern, Tuesday,
Starting point is 00:14:45 youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. We're going to have a new mock draft every Tuesday, that time, that place, 1 p.m. Eastern at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. The best way to know about it is to hit subscribe on the channel. Hit like the videos, by the way. And you can set alerts to know when we're about to be live on the air. We also have, I think, a mailbag on Friday that's going to air Monday. Monday is July 4th, so we won't have a live show that day. But I think we're going to do a mailbag on Friday, if I can get someone to do it with me. And you can send your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We can also read some Apple podcast questions.
Starting point is 00:15:24 But stay tuned for that. I'll make an announcement when we figure that out. News and notes. ESPN did a kind of cool feature. They asked each team's beat writer for one training camp surprise. Sorry, mini camp surprise. And some of the names that stood out,
Starting point is 00:15:41 Nico Collins for the Texans. Davis Mills said that they have to find a way to get second year wide, Nico Collins for the Texans. Davis Mills said that they have to find a way to get second-year wide receiver Nico Collins the ball. Head coach Brandon Staley of the Chargers said that Jalen Guyton, another young wide receiver, had a fantastic offseason. And ESPN's Cardinals guy, Josh Weinfuss, said that Eno Benjamin will be the frontrunner to back up James Conner.
Starting point is 00:16:04 That was pretty interesting. The head of Darryl Williams. Yeah, that's what I read last night. Eno Benjamin will be the frontrunner to back up James Conner. That's according to ESPN. What I remember about Eno Benjamin from his college days was that he was a good third down back. Scat back type.
Starting point is 00:16:21 Small, good hands, shifty. Definite compliment to James Conley. You said shifty, right? Shifty. There's an F in there, yes. And Mitchell Trubisky, this is not from ESPN, but Mitchell Trubisky, just another report, I think the Athletic this time, over and over again.
Starting point is 00:16:36 Can he pick it right now? I wouldn't project him to be your week one starter. It looks like it's Trubisky's job to lose as of now. We're going to take a break. A lot more backfield battles to talk about. Houston, Denver, Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, Philadelphia?
Starting point is 00:16:53 Question marks on these. My gosh, the octaves. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit, more cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days and the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide redefine possible with business platinum.
Starting point is 00:17:27 That's the powerful backing of american express terms and conditions apply visit amex.ca slash business platinum all right we got a top five list of backfield battles to watch courtesy of jamie eisenberg dave will give his critiques and we will talk about a lot more backfields but here's your top five. Miami, number one. We already discussed this. Chase Edmonds, 93rd overall in fantasy pros. Mostert, 143rd. Michelle, 182nd. Houston, Denver, Seattle, and Kansas City. Kansas City was the one that Dave gave at the top of the show as well, and we think that right now you can get Ronald Jones about 60 picks after Clyde Edwards-Ziller. If that's the case, then you want Ronald Jones. I got to switch your order here, Jamie, because this was not in particular. It wasn't in order.
Starting point is 00:18:11 Okay, okay, okay, yeah. We can't have Houston number two. We got to have Denver number two. So do you think there's a lot? Denver should probably be one. Fair enough. But we already talked about Miami, so we'll leave it there. Miami's got some uncertainty.
Starting point is 00:18:24 Denver, that's not the one. Well, Miami to me is the one that we just have no idea that could be good. Yeah, and Denver wouldn't use the word uncertainty. So how would you kind of assess the Denver situation right now? Well, I mean, if you go based on last year, it's going to be messy because they split carries exactly the same. And Javante had a little bit bigger role in the passing game. Nobody wants to see that especially the way that you're drafting unless you just are waiting out Melvin Gordon and hoping that he's just as successful as he was last year which will be a very good fantasy option given the draft capital but you know the hope would be is that Javante Williams takes a step forward he had a fantastic you know offseason so far by all accounts when I
Starting point is 00:19:03 spoke to Cortland Sutton this was before Melvin Gordon came back, he was, you know, over the moon for what Javante Williams could do this season. So that's just one perspective of a guy on his team. But in any event, you know, if Javante Williams does not take a significant step forward, he's going to probably, I don't want to say be a bust, but be overvalued as a early third round, in some cases, still a second round pick. But I think he is going to take a step forward. I probably would expect, at worst case scenario, a 60-40 split in terms of rushing downs. And then we saw the one game when Melvin Gordon missed week 13
Starting point is 00:19:33 against the Chiefs when he had, I think it was eight catches or nine catches in that game. Clearly a different quarterback and different system, play caller, et cetera. But he was a do-it-all threat that we love to see in terms of, you know, being a three-down guy working at the goal line. So I think both guys are worth drafting. Gordon's a great value pick still, but hopefully Javante Williams does establish himself as the guy in this back row. So unfortunately, Javante Williams, NFC ADP since June 1st is 16th. Fantasy Pros ADP is 18th.
Starting point is 00:20:04 So getting him in round three would be a steal and melvin gordon is going about a hundredth overall so who would you rather have i think it's a legit question i mean it might seem obvious but giovante williams at 18th or melvin gordon at 100 it's more fun to take giovante at 18th it's reaching there's no question about it. He's a late second, early third type of player. But the upside is huge. We talked about it with Cleveland. What happens if Nick Chubb gets hurt? Well, Melvin Gordon's 30 years old. What happens if he gets hurt?
Starting point is 00:20:34 Well, who would you rather have, though, at the ADPs? I'd rather have Javante because I think the upside is humongous and the downside is a 50-50 split will be frustrated because he's right around 11 or 12 PPR points per game. But I imagine this offense is going to be a lot more exciting now that Russ is there and that Nathaniel Hackett's there.
Starting point is 00:20:53 And if Russ has any kind of say over who the running back is on the field with him, a la Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, go look and see who had the better pass blocking grade last year from PFF. Here's a hint. He's in his second season okay obviously you you you'd love giovante if there's a melvin gordon injury but it goes both ways if there's a giovante injury melvin gordon's going to be amazing as well because the same offense the same thing that you know russell wilson is going to bring to that team and it's not just okay i'm taking giovante in round two and melvin in uh pick 100 what did we say 100 what 100 100 he said 100 it's the receiver you're passing up in round two and then getting melvin
Starting point is 00:21:29 gordon in one pick 100 as opposed to maybe what you're getting at pick 100 to get a piece of this backfield so i don't know i'm gonna take melvin gordon and pick 100 if that's the choice all right let's go to seattle boy rashad penny was amazing in the last six games of the season. And that included a 10 carry for 35 yard, one touchdown game against San Francisco, which had arguably the best run defense in football. But in those last six games, his 17 game pace was exactly 2000 rushing yards on only 289 carries.
Starting point is 00:21:59 Rashad Penny averaged 6.9 yards per carry in the last six games of the season. My favorite stats about him, he had 11 carries. Throughout the year, he had 119 carries. 11 of them went for 20 or more yards. That is insane. Nick Chubb had 12 carries of 20 more yards on 109 more carries than Rashad Penny. Jonathan Taylor had 14 carries of 20 plus yards compared to 11 for Penny.
Starting point is 00:22:26 And he had 213 more carries than Rashad Penny. So he was the most explosive running back, I'd say, in football last year. Rashad Penny. And Dave, do you buy that he is the front runner, as we saw a report last week, to be the number one ball carrier for the Seattle Seahawks? I buy it. I think he is that guy. I think Seattle has time on their side when it comes to Ken Walker
Starting point is 00:22:54 and letting him just kind of take his time and get used to the game. That's not to say that he won't play, but he's got an uphill battle to just split reps 50-50 with Rashad Penny. I think back to the owners' meetings when I was talking with Pete Carroll about Rashad Penny. And he insisted on talking about Rashad Penny. And he was glowing about everything from how his rushing average reminded him of Gale Sayers to other metrics that he spewed. When everybody knows who saw him, he was outstanding at the end of last year. And everybody also knows what the downside is with him.
Starting point is 00:23:25 And that's that he gets hurt. And that's why people are kind of attracted to Ken Walker is because Penny has a very serious track record of missing playing time. And if that's going to be the case, then Ken Walker is going to have a huge workload in front of him in an offense that wants to run the football a lot. And I think he's a good fit for the offense. I think he could end up being a real good season-long type of fantasy running back because I expect Penny to get hurt. But at the same time, if I'm going zero RB or hero RB
Starting point is 00:23:56 and I need running backs starting in the mid-rounds, Penny's at the top of the list because he's healthy now. And as long as he's healthy and ready to go, if I can squeeze out three or four great games before he gets hurt because it feels inevitable that he's going to get hurt, I'm thrilled to take him with a mid-round pick.
Starting point is 00:24:14 Jamie, their ADPs are almost identical. On Fantasy Pros, they're going 88th and 90th, Rashad Penny just ahead. In NFC, I think still since June 1st, Walker's slightly ahead, but he's,
Starting point is 00:24:28 you know, toward 80 and Penny's more like 90, I think. But who would you take first? Rashad Penny or Ken Walker? I think it's, it's fascinating that, that Penny has passed Walker now and we'll see what happens when we can get
Starting point is 00:24:39 to, you know, the majority of drafts in August. I still would take Walker first, but I'm glad that they're close. They should be close. And this is an easy backfield to draft together because you can potentially go back-to-back rounds
Starting point is 00:24:52 and get both of them. So it's not a bad scenario if this is your three and your four. Obviously, you love it if it's your four and your five in terms of your fantasy backfield. So this is one you want to see, you know, how it shakes out. You know, they both dealt with injuries so far this off season,
Starting point is 00:25:07 which is not encouraging for Walker. As Dave mentioned, it's clearly the norm for Penny, but he came back and then Walker missed time. So hopefully there's nothing that's going to keep either one out in training camp. We get to see how this unfolds, but I mean,
Starting point is 00:25:18 you know what this team's going to be. If they get a quarterback upgrade, there's going to be a lot more excitement about the Seahawks across the board, you know? So if it's Baker, if it's Garoppolo, if they somehow manage somebody else that's just an upgrade over Geno Smith or Drew Locke, no disrespect to those guys, but you know
Starting point is 00:25:30 what their careers have been. And so if there's a quarterback upgrade there, it's going to be probably bump both those guys up and then it could be just a little bit too pricey. But right now, I think it's worth taking a chance on both of them. I would take Walker first. All right. Our next backfield battle is in Houston. I'm going to throw Atlanta
Starting point is 00:25:48 in there. I'm going to lump Houston and Atlanta together. I asked this to Heath yesterday on Fantasy Football Today in 5. When you look at Houston and Atlanta, what's the likelihood that we get a top 24 running back or a really consequential
Starting point is 00:26:03 running back, someone who's more than just a desperation flex, I guess, in either Houston or Atlanta, Jamie, I'll give you the first word. Well, I mean, we got one last year in Patterson and so, you know, can he do it again? I don't think a lot of people are excited about that proposition, but, you know, it was the first time that he got an opportunity to be a featured running back for an extended season, essentially. And he came through and did great until he had the high ankle sprain, which he probably should not have played through. You know, you have to wonder how much wear and tear was a factor there. But, you know, the odds are stacked against them because I think you're going to see Houston split catches, you know, probably Marlon Mack early in the season.
Starting point is 00:26:41 And then Damian Pierce later in the season and Tyler Algier is going to be an upgrade over what Mike Davis was last year so at least that's the hope and so he'll do a little bit too much to probably impact Cordero Patterson but I think there's still a lot of value in these two backfields to get guys that could have some pockets of success you know three four weeks here of maybe one or two guys on each team combined so uh for me it's pearson in houston but i wouldn't overlook marlon mack and then i'd still take patterson over algier but algier is a good guy to wait for if you just want to see what happens then and patterson is going dave right in the same range as penny and walker about 78th 80th overall
Starting point is 00:27:17 on fantasy pros adp yep um and then the other guys are just late round picks so they're they're good values and pearson Algier and Mack. Mack's not even on the radar, I don't think. He should be. He's another. He's on the radar. He should be. He's a zero RB target.
Starting point is 00:27:35 I would take Rashad Penny way ahead of him, but he's still in the mix. If these guys stay healthy all season long, they've got a shot to crack the top 24 running back it's kind of the key to being a top 24 running back is playing 15 well I don't want to get too fixated on where they finish I guess you know in a less um mathematical way just a reliable running back for your fantasy team someone that you actually want to roster they will have their moments which is just another way of saying what Jamie said
Starting point is 00:28:06 about them having pockets. So if you draft Pierce or draft Algier, and I would take Algier ahead of Pierce, I would be patient with them. I wouldn't drop them if they do diddly-poo for the first three or four weeks of the season. You've got to give them a chance to understand what they're doing
Starting point is 00:28:21 and then get a chance to see meaningful playing time. But the one that I'm more excited about Algier, Pierce might be a little more talented, but he's never been like a full-time, big workload type of running back. He's always seemed to split. Or last year when he was the main guy in Florida, he just didn't get a ton of work. Algier's had a ton of work. Algiers had a ton of work, and I could see Algier being given an opportunity, especially if the Falcons like what they see from him, and the reports have been positive so far, if they move Patterson to wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:28:57 And now they trot out, you know, their two receiver package would be London and Patterson. They'd have Kyle Pitts, and they'd have Algier in the backfield. That's a big squad. That's going big. Cause Algier just, people might not know who he is. He's a big runner like Derek Henry,
Starting point is 00:29:13 but he can catch too. And so he's, he's got some promise to be helpful in this Atlanta offense at bare minimum. They can use them as a short yardage goal line back right away. Damian Pierce did not have more than 15 carries in any game in his career in Florida. And I will say, though, I brought this up, I don't know when, a few weeks ago, but Josh Jacobs only had two games in his college career with more than 15 carries. And then week one of his rookie season, he had 23 carries. So it didn't matter.
Starting point is 00:29:45 Does it matter to you guys? Damian Pierce, these are, these are round. These are day three guys. Damian Pierce was an early fourth round pick. Tyler Algier was a fifth round pick and not a great track record of day three running backs as rookies, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:00 coming now tell that to Elijah Mitchell, James Robinson obviously can happen, but not a great track record. Does it matter to you where they were drafted? Not necessarily, because they ended up in good spots where there's a chance for them to compete for playing time right away. And this is where I think you start to look at talent versus opportunity. Obviously, the NFL didn't view them as elite-level talents, which is fine.
Starting point is 00:30:21 As Dave said, Pierce is a part-time player. Algier wasn't exactly a dominant standout when he was, you know, doing some pretty good things at BYU. The thing I like about Pierce is he was on a very talented, you know, Gators team that when he got a chance, you know, and the thing that I like the most about, you know, his numbers from last year in a part-time role still got 19 catches, you know, and so, you know, when they were using him, they're using him in a passing downs role, which I don't think a lot of people expect him to be used in that way.
Starting point is 00:30:49 He averaged over 5.6 yards per carry for the majority of his career. So he does have the ability to break some long runs. And so he's not Josh Jacobs. That's not, you know, a fair comparison. I know why you're doing it, Adam,
Starting point is 00:30:59 but it's, I just, I just mean, I know if you didn't get the carries in college, I get it, but he's not going to be that. But if this Texans offense and the Falcons offense as well, if both these teams progress from where they were a year ago,
Starting point is 00:31:10 I think we could all see it for Houston because it was such a disaster early in the year and they started to pick things up once Davis Mills took over and they added a few more talented pieces, especially if the Falcons decide to give Algier that opportunity. Both these guys could just be tremendous value picks for you, and they're worth taking a chance on as more number four running backs, but the ability to be flex options, the ability maybe to be
Starting point is 00:31:32 a number two play, better and probably non-and-half PPR, certainly for Algier. But I do think that there's a chance that both by the time the end of the season rolls around, we're talking about them as why didn't we drop these guys a little bit sooner? They're perfect mid- to late-round targets for those teams that do take running backs, plural, early. Because then you're going to be more willing to be patient
Starting point is 00:31:54 to see what unfolds with Pierce, with Algier. Yeah, but we never talk about Cordaro Patterson. Before his high ankle sprain, he was the number eight running back in fantasy and number six wide receiver. He didn't get that many carries until week five or six, but he was basically a must start. He was kind of a league winner for a while. He hurt his ankle. He put you in a position to win your league.
Starting point is 00:32:26 Absolutely. He struggled toward the down the stretch, but do you think going 80th overall, what are the chances we're saying, wow, we should have drafted Cordaro Patterson earlier? Certainly could. Um, you know, it's, it's just hard to expect a 31 year old converted wide receiver to do that again on an offense that's still probably going to struggle that did add more pieces to the passing game so you know you referenced this uh yesterday adam about just how poorly matt ryan played or his production was poor um from the passing game should hopefully improve you know even just with these two guys splitting you know the time in terms of uh mariota and ritter so you know the passing game is better, a little less reliant on the run,
Starting point is 00:33:07 it could lead to more scoring opportunities. But he had to, in a lot of ways, this just sounds funny, but to carry the Falcons last year. And I don't think that's going to be the case this year because Pitts will be better. London will be an improvement, hopefully at some point, over what Russell Gage was giving them, not necessarily from a production standpoint,
Starting point is 00:33:22 but just from a play standpoint. And that this offense is just a little bit better throwing the ball. So I think Patterson's fine. I have no problem with him in that spot, but I do think that Algier being an upgrade over Mike Davis is going to impact what Cordero Patterson did last season.
Starting point is 00:33:35 And for whatever it's worth, they have Damian Williams, too. Yeah, I was about to say, we should maybe just say Damian Williams. Is there a path where Cordero Patterson gets drafted onto fantasy teams as a running back, but his role changes? Like I said, and maybe not necessarily, oh, he's a full-time wide receiver and he's back to the position that he was originally drafted to, but maybe he ends up
Starting point is 00:33:55 like second half 2021 Debo, where he gets a handful of carries and a few targets each week. I mean, he was kind of doing that to a degree last year. He had a lot more carries than targets most of the time. But imagine getting a running back at pick 80 who is playing wide receiver a little bit more, but you can use him in your running back spot. That's kind of cool.
Starting point is 00:34:18 All right, let's see the other backfields to watch. Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, the Jets, the Bills, the Packers, the Raiders. We'll go through these. I'll give you guys some ADP. But the ones we're really focusing on or have focused on so far, but we're looking at in training camp, Miami. What are the reports out of Denver, Seattle, Houston plus Atlanta,
Starting point is 00:34:42 kind of in a similar situation there, and the Kansas City Chiefs. The other backfields to watch, how about Dallas? I'll give you guys ADP. Would you rather have Zeke at 32 overall or Pollard at 82 overall? Hmm. I'll take the chance on Pollard. Yeah. Earlier today you said Chase Edmonds, you expect if either mostard or michelle is healthy
Starting point is 00:35:08 12 carries per game for edmunds what about pollard if zeke is healthy less than that based on what we saw last year but he he should no i think he gets more than six i bet he gets closer to 10 but you're're drafting Pollard for, you know, depth one and on the hope that Zeke is bad again or gets hurt. And that's really what it is. Pollard's very talented. He's a really good player. He can make explosive plays.
Starting point is 00:35:39 He can get six to 10 touches per game and still give you a palatable stat line as a number three running back. I'd rather have Kareem hunt. I think that's kind of obvious at this point, but there's a path for him to be a league winner and a top five running back. If Zeke stinks,
Starting point is 00:35:54 uh, Washington, Antonio Gibson's going 37th overall JD McKissick, 136th overall and full PPR. He had 43 catches in 11 games last season, including zero on one touch in week one. That was week one, lessons learned. JD McKissick has no role.
Starting point is 00:36:14 He was probably thinking, I'd love to be in Buffalo right about now. Anyway, yeah, what do you think? McKissick, 136th, Gibson, 37th, or just take a shot on Brian Robinson. Jamie, what do you think? McKissick, 136, Gibson, 37th, or just take a shot on Brian Robinson. Jamie, what do you do with Washington? There was a report from Ben Standig in The Athletic who does a great job covering the commanders
Starting point is 00:36:33 that they drafted Robinson to be there. I think he used the word running back hammer or the phrase running back hammer. And one thing that he brought up was that he could have the goal line opportunities and that Gibson had some fumble issues in those spots last season. He did. If that's the case and McKissick is playing on passing downs,
Starting point is 00:36:52 Antonio Gibson could just be a terrible fantasy pick this year because he'll be a lot of empty carries. And so round four is probably still an okay spot to draft Antonio Gibson, but he feels certainly like a dead zone type of guy this year. Robinson is a great late round flyer because of Gibson, who we know has battled through some injuries. If he does succumb to those and miss a significant time, maybe Robinson has a lot of value.
Starting point is 00:37:15 McKissick certainly is going to have a value in PPR, but probably that's it. And so it's a backfield I would prefer to avoid, but I have no problem, I guess, taking a flyer on Robinson if the value is right late. In Philadelphia, Miles Sanders is going 66th, Kenneth Gainwell 154th. That's in PPR on Fantasy Pros, looking at NFC ADP, Miles Sanders is going 84th.
Starting point is 00:37:39 I mean, just a huge difference. 66th on Fantasy Pros, 84th on NFC, and Gainwell is going to be a late-round in any format 142nd on nfc so dave when would you take mile sanders and do you want to take kenneth gainwell yes on gainwell late round six on sanders i'm tired of getting burned by sanders and it sure seems like he's got the opportunity to be the first running back on the field for Philadelphia, at least to start the year. And he did okay. Maybe he was even better than okay. He was good when he played, but everyone knows he didn't get any touchdowns last year. That's going to change. I don't think he's ever going to be a workhorse running back. I think
Starting point is 00:38:20 that ship has sailed. And so if you're drafting him, he's at best a number two running back. I think that ship has sailed. If you're drafting him, he's at best a number two running back, and he might be closer to the bottom of the number twos than the top of the number twos. He gets hurt frequently. He messes up in passing situations. When he gets into short yardage situations, I believe he had only six carries
Starting point is 00:38:40 from three yards or closer with no touchdowns last year. It might be lower than six. That's not that bad. That's not, eh. Well, not scoring. You're getting the ball three yards or closer. That means you're getting the ball in your belly
Starting point is 00:38:53 with the intention of finding the end zone. He couldn't do it. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts did it a ton. Other running backs in Philadelphia did it a ton. Gainwell even got the job done on an occasion or two. He had five thrashing touchdowns. Boston Scott had seven. Jordan Howard had three.
Starting point is 00:39:06 Right. So it's crazy, but at the same time, there's probably some truth to it that Miles Sanders isn't great in those situations. Coaches might not trust him. It's sure to be a backfield that's going to give you a headache in fantasy. I really don't love recommending taking him
Starting point is 00:39:22 even in round six because I don't want to draft headaches, and Sanders is probably going to be one. Yeah. I love miles Sanders around six. I would even take him around five. Um, no,
Starting point is 00:39:32 you say not, not a workhorse running back when he came back from the first injury and they were in this run heavy mode, uh, 16 carries in week 11 against new Orleans. That's a really good run defense. Again, only 94 yards. But I think as you know, today by gray, he's going to score more touchdowns week 13 against jets,. That's a really good run defense. Again, only 94 yards. But I think,
Starting point is 00:39:48 as you noted, Dave, I agree. He's going to score more touchdowns. Week 13 against the Jets, 24 carries for 120 yards. Week 15 against Washington. This was after I think their bye was week 14. 18 carries, 131 yards. So I think he's going to be a tremendous bounce back player this year because this offense is going to be more explosive he's in a contract situation and so if he gets hurt that's the risk but it's the risk with a lot of guys um i think the value in round six is fantastic for what the upside is as long as there's not somebody else added which would clearly hurt both of these guys i'm trying to get both of them because i think the value for both of them is good i think kenneth gamewell showed you in some small spurts last year that he can be successful.
Starting point is 00:40:26 And he was doing that at times with Jordan Howard and bought and miles Sanders healthy. So I like the upside for both these guys. Cause we know game was an injury away and Sanders missed four games each of the last two seasons, at least four games each of the last two seasons. He's an injury away from being a, I think a lottery ticket type of guy.
Starting point is 00:40:40 I've got Sanders. I said six carries three yards or closer. It's four. So didn't really even get a lot of opportunities when he did play to score touchdowns from short yardage. How does that change when other running backs did a better job than he did?
Starting point is 00:40:54 Because he's their guy. Were they game-powered healthy or active? I'd have to see, but probably not a ton of them. But Boston Scott was. Gainwell was. I think it's a little overstated. I mean, when Miles Sanders was healthy, but Boston Scott was. Gainwell was. I think it's a little overstated. I mean, when Miles Sanders was healthy, he was their guy. Yep. Now, one problem
Starting point is 00:41:10 with the stat you gave Jamie with how many carries he got after the when he came back from the injury, and when he came back from the injury, kind of late in the season, mid to late in the season, they were in that run heavy offense. He did get a lot of carries, but he only got 53% of the running back carries because they were just running the ball so much, 30 times a game. So even though did get a lot of carries, but he only got 53% of the running back carries because
Starting point is 00:41:25 they were just running the ball so much, 30 times a game. So even though he got a lot, if they, if they reduce those carries, which we expect, it might be more like, I don't know, 13, 14 carries. But he's still getting the majority of them and Howard's not there. And he left one of those games early too. I think it was the Giants game. So yeah, I mean, he is their guy, you know, and earlier in the year, he wasn't getting that many carries, but he actually was getting a huge chunk of the running back carries. So, um, I don't know. I mean, Kenneth Gainwell, I, I keep, you guys, we bring him up a lot. I know you guys like him, but he was drafted as the best, maybe the best pass catching running back in the 2021. Yeaheem Hines.
Starting point is 00:42:05 Yeah. I don't think he, I don't know that he gets that lottery ticket role. I mean, for example, last year they brought in Jordan Howard and Howard and Boston Scott both played ahead of Kenneth Gamewell. So I just don't, I never really understand why you guys feel that way about Gamewell. Well, I mean, you're also talking about a rookie coming in and asking him to do that role for what he was. I agree with you. I don't think he's going to be, when I,. I agree with you. I don't think he's going to be, when I say lottery ticket,
Starting point is 00:42:26 I don't think he's going to be a success story from his carries. I think he's going to be his total yardage and his workload overall. All right. All right, let's finish up here. Jacksonville, we really need to see, obviously, what's going on with James Robinson. But there was a report recently that Robinson was expected to be cleared at some point during training camp. Not the to be cleared at some point during training camp.
Starting point is 00:42:45 Not the start, but at some point in training camp. So ETN's going to be tough. I mean, let me see the ADPs here on these guys, and let's see who you'd rather have. James Robinson is going 106th overall. Travis ETN is going 47th overall. Dave, who would you rather have? ETN, because I don't know
Starting point is 00:43:05 if Robinson's going to be ready for the first six weeks of the season. But like I said, in the hypothetical scenario where he's cleared, he's back in training camp, he's ready for the game. Well, then he's not going to go that late
Starting point is 00:43:14 if he's cleared. He'll be a round six pick. Ooh. You think so? Two Jacksonville running backs going in the first six rounds? If he's practicing and he's back, I think people will gravitate right back to him,
Starting point is 00:43:27 and I think you'll see him go in that round six range, yes. Well, then where is Etienne going to go? He'll fall. He won't be a round four or five pick. He'll probably be right in that same round six range. Okay, so if they're both ready for week one, who's going to be on? I'm probably going to lean toward Etienne
Starting point is 00:43:42 because I think he's closer to being healthy, and he's certainly more explosive than Robinson. And what's your read, Jamie? I think they like Etienne a lot. Especially Robinson. I think they're going to ease him in even if he is ready to go by the start of the season. Etienne in round four is fine.
Starting point is 00:44:00 Robinson, I think, is... The earliest I think we'll probably see him go as maybe around six if he's a hundred percent, but probably closer to around eight. Um, I don't know. I just, it's, it's hard to trust a guy like him. Who's a little bit bigger than K makers, um, in an offense is clearly not as good as the Rams offense for him to come back and be as successful. And I have a lot of James Robinson and keeper and dynasty leagues.
Starting point is 00:44:23 So I'm hoping he's going to come back and be good. But, um, I think ETN's arrow is certainly pointing up and his role, he will still have a role, a significant role. If Robinson is there, Robinson, you know, could lose early down work to ETN. And we know he's not going to play over him on passing that situation. So ETN can potentially run away with his backfield if he's as good as he was in college, which he was pretty damn good at Clemson.
Starting point is 00:44:45 He could also be the team leader in receptions. So just face it. He's explosive. Quarterback trusts him. He's been working on it this offseason. He did it in college. He had 83 catches his last two years at Clemson. And this team's going to throw a lot if James Robinson isn't healthy.
Starting point is 00:45:03 What running back do they have? Otherwise, they'd have to add somebody else. I think they throw if Robinson is healthy regardless. Yeah. This is a team that's going to throw 600 times this year. ETN could lead the team in receptions. Connect the dots. Okay.
Starting point is 00:45:17 Do you feel there are legitimate backfield battles for the Jets, the Bills, the Packers, or the Raiders? Jets, Bills, Packers, Raiders? Jets, no. Bills, the Packers, or the Raiders? Jets, Bills, Packers, Raiders. Jets, no. Bills, no. Raiders, no. What was the other one? Packers. No.
Starting point is 00:45:38 I think there's a lot of TBD with those teams. We'll see with Brees Hall. Brees Hall's got to go to camp and play well. And if he does, does he run away with it? Does he take 20 touches a week? I don't know if the coaching staff in New York really believes that. I don't know if they really think that they... I don't know if they would be willing to give a running back that type of work. If he's eons better than Michael Carter, then probably. But I think Michael Carter's pretty good, especially if he's eons better than Michael Carter, then probably. But I think
Starting point is 00:46:05 Michael Carter's pretty good, especially if he's going to be the second back in line behind Brees Hall. Hall's the number one. I'm not trying to say that this is going to be a 50-50 split or anything like that, but you're going to see Michael Carter get some work. And if Carter comes to camp looking good and Brees Hall doesn't know what he's doing, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there is a chance of a 50-50 split, or maybe it'll be 60-40 Carter to begin the season. You're going to mutter, why did I take this rookie with a top 50 pick? That's one to be determined. The workload split in Green Bay is to be determined.
Starting point is 00:46:35 I don't think that there's a huge issue in Buffalo. Singletary makes sense as their lead back with James Cook being an air back. But we don't know. What if James Cook does a good job running the ball there too? So I think all those, I think all those backfields, it remains to be seen and just something to monitor leading up to your drafts. Advanced metrics, very favorable on James Cook in college. He ran the ball really well. And, uh, Jacob, Jacob Gibbs did a profile on him a few weeks ago you can listen to it in this
Starting point is 00:47:05 feed or in the fantasy football today in five feed but he had a lot of very positive things to say about james cook could be one of those guys where he gets an opportunity and he you know runs with it but they've already called him i don't know if they call them what a change of pace back complimentary back i think they call them in buffalo so i don't think he's going to start that way but he's got some abilities an explosive running back he's just small think he's going to start that way, but he's got some abilities. He's an explosive running back. He's just small. He's small. Yeah, but if he can play through that, which he's shown, obviously, in college that he can, and Singletary stumbles out of the gate,
Starting point is 00:47:34 watch out. James Cook could be your league winner. I made A.J. Dillon the thumbnail of this video before I knew what we were going to talk about. It looks like A.J. Dillon is yelling at Dave in the thumbnail. We're trying to eat Dave. So we should just talk about that. I'm high on cholesterol. He shouldn't eat me. I don't think it's necessarily a backfield battle,
Starting point is 00:47:53 but there is uncertainty about the roles, as you alluded to, Dave. There is. That could be extremely fantasy relevant. I think the biggest question, is he going to catch passes? Because A.J. Dillon really did not catch passes when Aaron Jones was healthy. His catches came without Aaron Jones, or maybe there was one game without Aaron Rodgers
Starting point is 00:48:16 against the Chiefs where Dillon had a lot of catches. I don't remember. But with Rodgers, with Aaron Jones, he was not involved in the passing game, really. So does that change, Dave, do you think? I think it doesn't change in terms of A.J. Dillon being on the field and passing down situations. So third and seven, he'll be on the sideline.
Starting point is 00:48:38 Second and ten, he'll be on the sideline. But when it's second and five or first and ten and they call a pass play and Rodgers decides to check it down or they call a dump screen to the running back, yeah, I think that they're comfortable enough with A.J. Dillon that they could use him in the same
Starting point is 00:48:56 way that they would use Aaron Jones in those situations. But when it is an obvious passing situation, I bet it's Aaron Jones. That means that Jones is going to have more catches. Oh, sure. Yeah. I think everybody's expecting that.
Starting point is 00:49:09 Yeah. The other thing is the goal line. I think that's a legit question. Yeah. Well, A.J. Dillon didn't really get that work until Aaron Jones got hurt in week 10, I believe it was. Five of his 10 carries inside the five yard line came in the, in the Seattle game when Jones left with an injury. And then the Rams game,
Starting point is 00:49:30 when Jones played totally hurt and probably should have been playing all of Dylan's 10 carries inside the five yard line came in week 10 or later. So he didn't have any before Aaron Jones left the Seattle game with an injury. We'd expect that to change, right? I mean, they're probably both going to be working there.
Starting point is 00:49:45 Was that what you'd guess? I would. That's the expectation based on everything that's come out of OTAs in this offseason. And just to go back to Dylan as a pass catcher, he had four games last season with at least four catches. And in those games, he scored at least 12 PPR points in all of those. So if they use him just a little bit more as a pass catcher, he averaged 15.6 PPR points per game in those four.
Starting point is 00:50:08 So they use him even more as a pass catcher, which we expect to whatever degree. I don't know if he's catching four a game, but if he's consistently catching three passes a game, which is realistic in this offense, then I think we can see a situation where he's just a monster. So Jones is the better of the two, but Dylan shouldn't be far behind. I'm going to read some emails.
Starting point is 00:50:29 Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Oh, no, I put the answer. Dave, don't read the notes. Okay, fine. Not for this one. This is from Bradley. Guess the player based on these clues. One, the player finished as a top 15 quarterback last year
Starting point is 00:50:45 and scored more points per game than Derek Carr. Patrick Mahomes. He changed teams during the offseason and arguably has improved his receiving options. Three, the player has a top five season under his belt and has thrown exactly seven interceptions in four of the last five seasons. I think I know who it is.
Starting point is 00:51:10 Carson Wentz? Yeah, it's Carson Wentz. So our emailer, Bradley, says that Carson Wentz is underrated. He could be a solid streaming option in 1QB leagues and he's a super flex guy who's being
Starting point is 00:51:26 significantly undervalued. Carson Wentz. I believe he's gotten off to a red hot start each of the last three years and then he stumbles and that's it. He got off to a very good start last year. The first half of the year
Starting point is 00:51:42 weeks one through nine. Let me do the math real quick. He averaged 21.2. Okay, maybe not red hot, but good. Real good if you're in a two-quarterback league and you're waiting on your second quarterback. Good. I'm nervous about him having that job all season long because if he goes in there and he stinks, do they go back to Heineke do they go to sam howell their rookie it's probably what they do and so i don't think he's got great job security there like he had in indianapolis last year
Starting point is 00:52:15 does have a good receiving core they're saying that he's connecting with johan dotson like crazy at camp and once he gets he's got no one else to throw to. Right. Well, at least, listen, it's a positive that Dotson's stepping up. I'm becoming a fan of Dotson. And when McLaurin gets back in there and he settles his contract squabble, he'll be good for him, too. There's a chance for him to be
Starting point is 00:52:38 a real nice number two fantasy quarterback. Would you rather have Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz? I think I'd rather, I think I'd rather have Ryan. Scottfish just announced that he can't wait to give away a Scottfish bowl, 12 spot to someone in the chat during the mock at 1 PM. Eastern.
Starting point is 00:52:59 Holy podcasting spot too. That is not true. He did not say that. And that's not what he's giving away. He doesn't have that power. But that is awesome. We are giving away a Scott Fishbowl spot in the mock draft today. All right, next email from Randall.
Starting point is 00:53:12 I have the third pick in a full PPR keeper league. I am keeping Trey Lance in the 10th round and Leonard Fournette in the 8th round. It's using my first three picks on top- whiteouts too bold and i just i don't know who's passing up at running back with each of those picks but no it isn't you have leonard fornette who's a second probably a second round pick in the eighth so no it's not too bold i don't have a problem with it just don't don't ever go in your draft saying this is exactly what I'm going to do. Because if a running back slips when you're up and you can't believe it, you've got to take him.
Starting point is 00:53:52 This is from Juan. How many teams? He didn't say. Yeah, I don't know. Adam didn't say. From Juan. Hey, Mike, Will, Austin, and Josh. I will tell you who they are,
Starting point is 00:54:03 and you can tell me what they have in common. Mike Williams, Will Fuller, Austin, and Josh. I will tell you who they are, and you can tell me what they have in common. Mike Williams, Will Fuller, Austin Hooper. They've all three already done this, and Josh Jacobs is hopefully going to do this. What do they have in common? Sign a large contract. What did they do before they signed a large contract? They had a breakout year. They had a great contract. What did they do before they signed a large contract? They had a breakout year.
Starting point is 00:54:27 They had a great contract year season. So that is Juan's question, I guess, just to sum it up. Do you believe in the contract year? And can Josh Jacobs fall in that category? They did not pick up his option, so he's in a contract year. And is there anyone else that comes to mind? Miles Sanders? Saquon.
Starting point is 00:54:49 Saquon. Do you believe in it? Corey Davis is another guy that could have been on this list. He was, yep. Should scare the hell out of you if you draft Mike Williams. I believe that the players
Starting point is 00:55:03 are very aware that they're in a contract year and the majority of them are willing to do whatever it takes to get on the field and play. It is still not a guarantee that they're going to succeed for your fantasy team because stuff happens. But the players are more
Starting point is 00:55:20 motivated when they're in a contract year. Jake Sealy was on from the Athletic. He was on a few months ago. Maybe it was on from the athletic. He was on, I don't know, a few months ago, maybe it was last year, whenever he, we've had him on a bunch and he actually said he did some research on this. I hope I'm not misquoting, but I'm pretty sure it was him. And I'm pretty sure it was this research. And he found there were a lot of good contract year seasons,
Starting point is 00:55:40 some fine contract. Yeah. It's some bad. Right. Because it's not guaranteed. You can be motivated. It might have been a baseball story that he did. I can't remember. He used to cover baseball, too. But I suspect it's that. I suspect there's some really good ones, some mediocre ones,
Starting point is 00:55:54 and some really bad ones. So I don't think that's something we keep in mind when we draft. But hey, maybe it's a tiebreaker. All right, from Lito. Dear, oh no. Dear Jose, Johan, Yasmany, and Luis. Those are players on an underperforming,
Starting point is 00:56:11 poorly managed baseball team that should be running away with the American League Central, and instead they're in third place. They're entirely unmotivated. They're lazy. They stink. Don't get me started on the manager but but at the stadium they were serving horchata milkshakes with a foot-long churro coming out
Starting point is 00:56:34 what the hell is that what's a horchata milkshake yeah what is it up it tasted i didn't have it it sounds spicy nah it it's cinnamony oh it tasted like cinnamon toast crunch they said it tasted like a cinnamon toast crunch milkshake and i can vouch for the churros at the stadium formerly known as comiskey park it was uh they have been good for yeah i whatever it's called who cares guarantee ray has an arrow pointing down, right? Right, and so is the future of this franchise. It's gone right into the toilet. I love it. No, it's sad.
Starting point is 00:57:10 It's very sad. All right, we got some DK Metcalf questions here. I mean, Eloy Jimenez can't even get an extra base hit in AAA right now. Wow. It seems like he's been down there for three months. Okay, so we got some DK Metcalf questions. He's trying to get in his dynasty league uh but they do hold on they do have an excellent clubhouse manager
Starting point is 00:57:31 thank you okay okay so there's an inside story there and all right so lito wants to get a better quarterback starting in 2023 and he's got some dk metc offers. So in league one PPR league, the value moves up. I guess it's a keeper league, not the, not a dynasty league. The value moves up one round each year and you can't keep them once they get into the top three rounds. Metcalf, would you keep any of these guys over DK Metcalf? Metcalf is a sixth round pick. Would you keep Terrace Marshall in the 12th round, Kadarius Toney in his average draft position plus three rounds?
Starting point is 00:58:10 That'll be fairly late. Or Ronald Jones in the sixth round? No. I'm keeping DK. All right, League 2. Half PPR League. Value moves up
Starting point is 00:58:20 two rounds each year and you can't keep them after they get into the top three rounds. DK Metcalf for a fourth next year and a second rounder in two years. He could keep them twice.
Starting point is 00:58:34 I'm so confused. No, so far you're good. I get it. Alright, so you can keep DK Metcalf. Oh, okay, okay. So it would be a sixth round this year and a fourth round next year. And then a second rounder after that. And then you can't keep him after they get into the top three rounds. So it would be a sixth round this year and a fourth round next year. And then a second rounder after that. And then you can't keep him after that.
Starting point is 00:58:48 No, you can't keep him in the... Yeah, you can. You can keep him with the second round pick, but once they're a second round pick, they don't have a round three rounds higher than the second round. All right. Doesn't exist. Math doesn't let it happen.
Starting point is 00:58:59 All right, so pick three. So you can't keep him. DK Metcalf in round six, George Kittle in round five, AJ Dillon in round seven, JK Dobbins in round 11. Which one are you him. DK Metcalf in round six, George Kittle in round five, AJ Dillon in round seven, JK Dobbins in round 11. Which one are you throwing back? Metcalf round six,
Starting point is 00:59:09 Kittle round five, Dillon round seven, Dobbins round 11. Throwing back Kittle. Yeah. Okay. Last question is from Andrew. Dynasty question.
Starting point is 00:59:18 12-team PPR dynasty. I can keep seven players forever with no penalty. So help me pick the best returning injured running back. Travis Etienne or J.K. Dobbins? When does he have to decide? Yeah, that's a good question.
Starting point is 00:59:33 He says June 27th. No, I'm just kidding. I have no idea. That was yesterday. I don't know. If it's now, I would keep Etienne. If it's military camp and Dobbins looks good, I'd keep Dobbins. I think I agree.
Starting point is 00:59:54 All right. Who are the seven? The seven. Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Devontae Adams, DK Metcalf, Joe Mixon, Trey Lance, and either J.K. Dobbins or Travis Etienne. Does he have to keep him? That's good. You know, it's a dynasty league.
Starting point is 01:00:10 You figure there's probably not a lot of quarterbacks available. It's not a dynasty league unless you can keep everybody. I get it. He's called a dynasty. If you're keeping people. It's like a hybrid. Yeah. It's not.
Starting point is 01:00:22 I guess, I mean, if there are quarterbacks being thrown back, then, you know, you can make a different decision. I mean, it mean, if there are quarterbacks being thrown back, then you know, you can make a different decision. It's not a full dynasty league, so I would probably throw back Lance. Alright. And keep those other running backs because I just yawned. That was bad. Bad etiquette.
Starting point is 01:00:39 Did you cover your mouth? No. It's an hour. So we're getting a look at your tonsils and everything? All right. So Scott's giving away a fishbowl spot. I'm going to end this podcast before you even say it. It's just not happening. I wish we had a league where everybody that Jamie promised a spot to
Starting point is 01:00:57 just played against it. It would be like 200 teams. We are going to have something called the FFT Open, which is going to be similar to that. It's a copycat of the Scott Fish Bowl for Fantasy Football Today listeners. It's managed by one of our listeners, Casey Simons. If you're interested, join our Facebook group, which the link is in the episode description. Thanks, everybody, for watching and listening. Dave and I are going to go record Fantasy Football Today in five. If you want to hop over to that stream. Otherwise, we will talk to you at 1 p.m. with Scott Fish. Tara Roberts joining us as well. We'll see you then.

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