Fantasy Football Today - Bills & Commanders Dynasty Values with Adam Pfeifer (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined today once again by my good friend Adam Pfeiffer. Adam, it has been a couple of months since you've been on the show. How are you doing? I just recovered from the yearly tradition of the Chiefs eliminating the Bills. So yeah, I, you know, this time of year I'm pretty much in the same mindset and unfortunately it doesn't really change. But outside of that, I'm doing good. Appreciate you having me on. Always fun to chat. Your Cavs have the best record in basketball, right?

Starting point is 00:00:39 Yeah. And luckily we don't have time for me to have to discuss and share with everybody why I'm a Bills fan and a Cavs fan, but just know I've been a Cavs fan for a long, long time, so it's not recent. Listen, as someone who's a Chiefs fan and a Celtics fan, I'm just happy you still talk to me. We always like to take a minute at the top of the show. I know people have heard from you enough.

Starting point is 00:01:04 They probably know where to find your work. But just tell, in case we got a new listener, where can people find your work? What have you been working on? Yeah, over at ftnfantasy.com. I'm doing a lot of football stuff per usual, but also basketball. Took a little bit of a brief hiatus with the podcast

Starting point is 00:01:20 during the playoffs and back yesterday and today with a new series calling it kind of like a season in review where I'm going through all 32 teams recapping what happened using a lot of our advanced stats hub stuff to talk about why certain players perform certain ways. So Thursday I had Michael Florio on from NFL fantasy to talk about the bills, which was like 50 minute podcast because we're both bills fans and then today I did a Miami Dolphins episode, which was really fun because that team had a lot of

Starting point is 00:01:53 Clear factors to why they performed the way they did mainly, you know to of being out So that's gonna be something I'm doing a couple times a week. And then also if you are into baseball with baseball season Rapidly approaching I know you used to do baseball I don't believe you do it anymore. No, I used to do it as well and FTN is for the better because I just Basketball and football have always been towards the top for me, but we have an awesome baseball team we have a draft guide that's up and we're also running a Promo code right now up until spring training to get a baseball package. Use the promo code SPRING15.

Starting point is 00:02:25 You can get 50% off. I'm not as into baseball as I used to be, but I have still the Griffey hat and shirt on and you know, pretty much since he retired, I slowly started to fall off baseball. I think three years without watching a baseball game, but then the Royals made the playoffs this year. So I watched a little bit just enough to watch them. I mean, I'm in the PA area. So like I support the Phillies. I would not call myself like a diehard Phillies fan, but they've obviously been really good. So I've gotten more into

Starting point is 00:02:53 it with the Phillies and Bryce Harper, but yeah, nowhere close to what I used to be. That is the most unique combination of Bills, Cavs, Phillies. I absolutely love it. On today's show, we're going to do a little something similar to what we did last week when we talked about kind of the dynasty value and the dynasty questions around the two teams who were in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs and the Eagles. This week, we're going to talk about the two teams that they prevented from going to the Super Bowl, the Bills and the Commanders. We'll also talk a little bit about Kellen Moore in New Orleans. And we, I don't and I'm not sure if we've talked enough about Aaron Rodgers and Devonte Adams, likely not in New York.

Starting point is 00:03:29 But as always, we start with three questions for our guests, and it's Valentine's Day, so we'll do the stick. Who is one player who you love at cost in Dynasty? Yeah, so I thought about this for a decent amount of time, actually. And right around a little bit, you know, this time last offseason, I was in one of my leagues just fully rebuilding. I was stockpiling a bunch of picks. And one of the main reasons, other than the fact that, like, my team had to go in that direction because I had a lot of veterans was

Starting point is 00:03:59 I wanted to make sure and do whatever I could to get Roma doomsday on my team. He's one of my favorite prospects, not just last year, but you know, in a while. Um, and obviously his rookie season, what isn't what we thought it was. And he's probably being devalued a little bit now because. A handful of the rookie receivers that were drafted after him, lad McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr. They're pretty easily ahead of him now. So I think people are slowly forgetting about Rome. And I think that's a mistake. And like,

Starting point is 00:04:28 I would trade any first round pick in this rookie draft outside of the 101 to get Rome on my team, especially with the wide receiver class, not being a strong, you look at it like it was a bad year all around for the Bears offense. We know that, but Rome was like getting all the air yards. It's just 38.3% of them were deemed uncatchable. It was the fifth lowest rate or fifth highest rate, I should say, among wide receivers. Just, he didn't get a lot of the schemed easy stuff. There was a couple of times where they'd give him

Starting point is 00:04:57 some end arounds and stuff, but mostly that went to DJ Moore and Kenan Allen. I don't know if Kenan Allen will be back. I think I saw the last time the report was he's either gonna play in Chicago, LA or retire. And the most important thing is obviously Ben Johnson. I just think Ben Johnson is third at worst and probably even better in terms of play

Starting point is 00:05:19 colors in the league. You look at Caleb Williams last season too, looking at a lot of the advanced metrics we have at FTN fantasy just 47.9 percent of Caleb Williams drop backs last season included motion It was outside the top 21 quarterbacks in the league Whereas Jared Goff with Ben Johnson to Detroit last year was over 71 percent the highest rate in the league I'm a huge fan of motion. I think it just helps everything with the offense Rome's gonna get a lot of those Layup targets. I think this year on top of just being still a really good prospect. Caleb should be better, hopefully has

Starting point is 00:05:49 more time to throw the football. Just the overall scheme will be better. I still think Rome's an immense talent. So I have him on one team, but any other league, I would love to try to get Rome a doonze if people are worried about one down rookie season. One thing I love about having you on the show is you always bring the great stats and that's what FTN fantasy is all about obviously. But I also love it when those stats confirm what I felt like I saw and watching Bears games last year, it felt like every Roma doonsay target was the worst throw that Caleb Williams had on that drive.

Starting point is 00:06:24 Like he'd throw the ball to Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, everything's fine. He throws the ball to Roma Dunezay and it's 700 miles an hour, like three feet too high. And so that's probably not going to last. Keeping with the theme of things that you love, what are some of your current favorite settings and options for dynasty leagues right now? Yeah, not so much a setting. It's just like if I'm in a dynasty league. Simply put, like I just wanted to be active. I'm not saying you know, early February there has to be

Starting point is 00:06:56 everybody chatting, everybody's trading, but like there is it's really off putting when you are in a dynasty league and there's just even if it's not myself making trades like I just want stuff to happen. So again I'm not saying like obviously if you're content with your team yet don't make any trades but like. It's there's there's been times where it's like been four weeks and nothing's happened like in season and stuff and just try to be as active as possible. And like also, like if you're a team, that's just not contending. That's when you should probably be most active. And there's, there's been times where teams just aren't even checking the league and stuff like that aren't answering, aren't responding or countering trade.

Starting point is 00:07:37 So not so much a setting, but just like keep it active and just also on the same page, just have fun with it. Love it. Love it. Love it. Final question, is there one coaching change from this off season that you're really excited about for next year? I would say, Kellan Moore's up there, we'll talk about him in a little bit. I did like the Clint Kubiak move to Seattle.

Starting point is 00:07:59 I think there was a interview with him talking about Ken Walker and how he can fit in the outside zone scheme. I think that could be a lot of fun Especially if they get Ken Walker who was starting to get more usage in the passing game this year Like if he can just stay healthy, I think he could be a much better fit in that offense Plus you have the fact that Kubiak what do you do? I remember there was a time last year where we were like, oh my god

Starting point is 00:08:20 the Saints are the best offense in the league and that lasted two weeks, but Everybody got hurt like we saw what J.S.. ended last season and now he could get again on the theme of motion, like a lot more motion, a lot more of that stuff. So I'm excited about Clint Kubiak, I'd say not a head coaching hire, but taking over the offense in Seattle there. Let's take a short break and then we'll get into the bills and commanders for Dynasty. Are you crushing your bills? Defeating your monthly payments?

Starting point is 00:08:48 Sounds like you're at the top of your financial game. Rise to it with the BMO Eclipse Rise Visa Card. The credit card that rewards your good financial habits. Earn points for paying your credit card bill in full and on time every month. Level up from bill payer to reward slayer. Terms and conditions apply. It's a fantastic job by Dave in that commercial. So, so good. Let's talk about the bills and my favorite bill coming into 2024 was James Cook. Absolutely. was James Cook. Absolutely. Now I didn't predict he was going to lead the NFL in touchdowns. I think I did predict he would have a career high in touchdowns. There was a big gap in between those two things. But now I'm getting a little bit nervous at him because I think

Starting point is 00:09:33 he obviously stands out as one of the most obvious touchdown regression candidates and his usage last year actually got worse. The average fewer rush attempts per game, fewer receptions per game. They're using three backs throughout the season, even in the playoffs. And I think maybe one of the reasons they lost to the Chiefs is they didn't have played James Cook enough. Do you think there's any hope that his usage improves or should we expect a step back? Yeah. So I was with you on Jimbo.

Starting point is 00:10:02 He was one of my five favorite players in Redraft this offseason. And yeah, I didn't expect I liked him because I thought he would catch like 50, 60 passes. Yeah, that didn't happen. But he scored 16 Russian touchdowns. There were some positive signs outside of that, obviously. First of all, like I've been asked this for years as somebody that watches all the Bills games like is this the year Josh Allen finally runs less? And every year I say no,

Starting point is 00:10:26 this year finally happened. Like Josh Allen from 2022 to 2023 had 25 carries from it's at the five yard line. James Cook only had four during that span. But then this year he had 13 of those carries and Josh only had 10. So they clearly made it more of an effort to like say, you know what, these huge games, you know, the chief scheme, the lions game, that's when we'll have Josh run. Otherwise, let's just let's just kind of limit that. And then he's always been really efficient.

Starting point is 00:10:50 He was six among running backs in EPA per attempt. And I've been tracking this since week 11 of the twenty twenty three season when Joe Brady took over the offense. There's now been twenty eight games, regular season and postseason where James Cook has played in Joe Brady's offense. In those games, averaging 17 touches, about 90 scrimmage yards and just over 16 and a half PPR points per game. So he's been really, really good.

Starting point is 00:11:13 The obvious question is a the usage, right? He's only played more than 55 percent of the snaps three times all year long. Ty Johnson, they love 64% of the third downs were his last year. And Ray Davis gets maybe a drive per game. Then there's this stuff about, I don't know if you saw, but James Cook apparently wants $15 million a year. This is the last year of his contract.

Starting point is 00:11:37 He's been awesome. I don't think the bills are going to pay him $15 million a year, so that'll be interesting from a dynasty aspect. If he only has one more year in Buffalo, yeah, I mean, this run scheme is so good. The power run scheme they run that, you know, jumbo package where they have Alec Anderson as a six offensive lineman like 30% of the time. And they just run on every everybody, right? Like Detroit, that game, I was like, Okay, I don't think this is going to be a game for James Cook.

Starting point is 00:12:01 And he runs for 100 plus yards. Probably should have had a better game in the playoffs against the Chiefs but they for whatever reason went away from him like I think he is as Good like I think after like the top tier of running backs in terms of talent if you have like Saquon McCaffrey Jamir Gibbs Derek Henry, I think James Cook is in that next second tier. I think he's that good I agree with that talent wise, right? again like 55% snaps as a ceiling is like you have to continue to be either really efficient Which I think he will be on a per carry basis

Starting point is 00:12:34 But would you be surprised if he had eight Russian touchdowns this year because I wouldn't No, not at all. So Question number two Khalil Shakir or Kion Coleman in Dynasty? Yeah, it's Shakir for me. It's not close. Were you discouraged by Coleman or do you think that Shakir's got a chance for a true breakout next year? I think it's more so I just have always been a huge fan of Shakir and like it was no secret that that was the most trustworthy player for Josh Allen. And it wasn't like insane volume because they had this mantra in Buffalo where everybody eats everybody except for Kincaid, apparently.

Starting point is 00:13:14 And like Keon was starting to come on. And then he hurt his wrist, I believe, in the I think it was the Miami game. Late in the game. And Brandon Bean talked about it in his end of season press conference, where he said like, he really just couldn't get back to that form. So I think Keon can still be really fine. I'm just higher on Shakir.

Starting point is 00:13:36 I think he's getting in this Joe Brady offense, that's way more built off yards after the catch. Josh Allen, career high and yards after the catch per completion this year. Like that's going to be Shakira as the top target in this offense. So for me, it's not so much as like, oh, I think after one year, Keon Coleman's a massive bust. It's more so I just think Shakira is clearly the focal point of this passing game and the player Josh Allen trusts the most.

Starting point is 00:14:01 I had a question from the chat. What is Shakir's upside? Could you see a top 20 season for him? Or do you think low end wide receiver two, high end wide receiver three is probably the upside? If this were like the Brian Dayball version of this bill's offense, yeah, top 20, because they would just, you know, they spread out,

Starting point is 00:14:19 play four wide and throw the ball 60% of the time. But in this version, where they're actually one of the more run heavy teams in football, I'd say his ceiling is probably still in that same range. But he doesn't get end zone targets. That really does hurt him. I would say top 24 is his ceiling. You mentioned him, Dalton Kincaid,

Starting point is 00:14:41 a massive disappointment this year. Even for me. We won't talk about the AC Championship game either. So right. I was down on Dalton Kincaid and he's still busted based on my ranking of him coming into this year. The, the tight end position at Den dynasty is basically Bowers and McBride. And then I guess Laporte is the clear number three. And we'll see on Tyler Warren, I guess.

Starting point is 00:15:04 Right. Could be anybody at four or five. Do you have any hope that Dalton Kincade is going to become an elite Titan in fantasy or are you just kind of hoping he's a Dallas gutter? Yeah. I mean, I'm starting to lean towards the ladder and I was really high on Kincade too, because last year when Stefan Diggs was off the field in his final season in Buffalo, Kincade had a 22.6% target share on those plays. So I was like, okay, he's gonna be the focal point.

Starting point is 00:15:29 Like there's not many tight ends that have a chance to lead their team in targets. And I remember the week one game against Arizona just had a goose egg for like three quarters. And I go back and watch the game and he's being triple covered. I'm like, wow, is that the respect on Kincaid's getting? And then 20th in PPR points per game among tight ends, four end zone targets, and he's being triple covered. I'm like, wow, is that the respect on can cage getting and then

Starting point is 00:15:52 20th and PPR points per game among tight ends for end zone targets still splitting time and routes with Dawson Knox and Brandon Bean talked about this and his end of season press conference that Kincaid needs to bulk up and he's not somebody that was ever really somebody you want run blocking at Utah and on a team that Plays this power run scheme and has these six offensive linemen like you want him out there on those plays in case they run play action in case they audible and that's not his role right now. I still think he's going to be the clear number two option this offense barring some move or whether they keep a Mario Cooper and he finally gets more involved. But yeah, I don't I don't envision envision and it hurts me say this because they traded up form and everything like that.

Starting point is 00:16:28 I don't envision it becoming like a true top five difference making player at the tight end position. Are there any hidden gems on this Bill's roster that you're trying to acquire? I mean, you can keep it on Ray Davis because Ty Johnson is a free agent. I do think the bills will try to get him back because they think he's the best third down running back in the league. And he's like legitimately made plays to win them games.

Starting point is 00:16:49 But if Ray Davis, for whatever reason, got that role, we know James Cook's not gonna be somebody they wanna play more than like 60% of the snaps. That could be interesting. And Ray Davis, we had that one spot start against the Jets where he was really impressive. Especially if you have James Cook on your team, I would try to go get Ray Davis.

Starting point is 00:17:05 Other than that though, like Curtis Samuel was a bust. He didn't really do anything till the playoffs. I mean, Matt Collins, they like, but like you don't really want to start at Collins. I envision they try to bring him back to there's really not anybody else that stands out. Amari Cooper, obviously, you know, 31, 32 years old. We'll see if they bring him back. So there's a lot of uncertainty with the pass catching options outside of Shakir and I guess Coleman. And then everybody else is kind of old or one year deals. So I don't really think so.

Starting point is 00:17:34 We're going to transition from the Bills to the commanders here. But of course, there's one Bills player we didn't talk about yet. And I get a lot of hate for saying that I hate Josh Allen. And I don't, he is currently my QB one in dynasty. Uh, but I do have a question is, is because he's 29 years old going into next year. Jaden Daniels looked fantastic as a rookie and looks like he has almost as much upside as their case to be made for Jaden Daniels as the QB one over Josh Allen in dynasty? Keith, do you know many Josh Allen fans, like the people that love Josh Allen more than I do?

Starting point is 00:18:16 No. I think there's a case. Yeah, I just, it's just like to do that as a rookie and to have the age, I know it's quarterback, I think Josh Allen plays for another seven plus years or whatever, but like, I just like that rookie season was insane. They're probably going to add more offensive line help and more help at wide receiver. I haven't sat down and done dynasty rankings. It'll be borderline impossible for me to rank anybody ahead of Josh Allen.

Starting point is 00:18:45 But I know that people have Jayden Daniels ranked ahead of Josh Allen. And I don't really think it's crazy at all. Like if you have him as the quarterback one in dynasty, I think that's perfectly fine. I would probably still lean Josh. But I don't think it's bizarre at all. And that's coming from, again, the top Josh Allen fan on the planet I just think Jane Daniels was that good. He was an elite prospect obviously and I just always go back to how good he was in the clutch like he was top five and touchdowns EPA per drop back all those advanced metrics in the fourth quarter and overtime like as a rookie. Yeah, like he's a real deal

Starting point is 00:19:22 Jacob asks, what does a realistic offer look like for you to actually accept Jaden for Josh? Jaden in a first, Jaden in two firsts? And I'll say, if I had Josh Allen and somebody offered me Jaden Daniels and a first round rookie pick, I would jump on that so fast. I'd come here and do a show and tell you guys about it afterwards. But before I would- I mean, like you could, I would honestly, like again, cannot stress this enough the the number one Josh Allen fan in the world.

Starting point is 00:19:49 If I got something in my inbox where it was I give up Josh for Jayden straight up. I would think about that. And then if you're getting a plus, yeah. Right. I think like we did see in terms of fantasy production, a little step back from Josh this year, you mentioned it that they finally I think wisely decided, you know, maybe we don't need him to run the ball eight times a game against some of these teams that we don't need them to run the ball eight times. There was a couple of just brutal games too, like the Baltimore and Houston stretch where he was just awful.

Starting point is 00:20:17 But yeah, like they, this was the first year where I was wrong and they actually had him run less. And as he moves into his thirties, that's probably going to happen more, not less often. Moving over to the commanders fully now, I have a really hard time getting excited. Obviously Austin Eckler is over 30 and still looks really good in a small sample size, but he's just a dynasty flex for a contender only. But I have a hard time getting excited about Brian Robinson Jr. Also, can you help me out there? Or is he just like a flex at best as well?

Starting point is 00:20:52 You know, your mind's me off. Reminds me of Devin Singletary when he was in Buffalo. Yeah, just like he's going to get the early down work on a good offense, but he's going to lose Russian touchdowns at the quarterback and There's somebody else that's gonna take pass game work from him it's kind of reminds me of and Like he'll have some good games. Obviously you like the pace that Washington played with Cliff, you know 60 plus percent no-huddle rate like there's gonna be a lot of really good fantasy games from Washington

Starting point is 00:21:22 but yeah, I don't really disagree about not being too excited about him. Plus like I wouldn't be surprised if Washington added a running back in the draft. No. I, and I think like that is just, you could take the Washington out of that. And 90% of the teams in the NFL, as good as this draft class, like you're hearing there's 25 running backs in this class who might be worthy of a draft pick. There's going to be guys added on day three that can actually

Starting point is 00:21:50 compete for touches this year. I was going to be like the ultimate sweat for dynasty teams when you're watching the draft and it's like, okay, please don't draft. You know, I have, um, I've chased Brown, please don't draft the running backs in Saturday. It's going to be a lot of that, that type of sweat during the draft. Like it, I'm okay giving up Brian Robinson for an early second

Starting point is 00:22:09 is kind of where I'm at. And that might be especially in this class. Like if you just want like, you know, I mean, like you can get somebody that in a year's time could be better than Brian Robinson pretty easily. I want to move over to wide receiver and Terry McClellan just had an awesome year and Terry McClellan is an awesome player. But I again, kind of like James Cook, I've got a little bit of concern here because when you go and look at the actual numbers, he had 117 targets last year. That's the lowest he's had since his rookie year. He caught 82 passes.

Starting point is 00:22:39 That was the second best season of his career. Had 1096 receiving yards. That was the third best season of his career. Had 1,096 receiving yards. That was the third best season of his career. The one thing that changed was the fact that he got 13 touchdown passes on 117 targets. So obviously the big regression alarm is blaring red in terms of touchdown catches. Previous career high was seven. I think what you would expect with 117 targets is seven or eight. And I'm expecting that Washington is going to go add a better number two wide receiver than they had last year. Would you call Terry McLaurin entering his age 29 season a dynasty cell?

Starting point is 00:23:20 I think he can be, but I also don't think if he's on their roster you have to look at and say okay time to time to take advantage of this just because. I and look I was really worried after like week one in the preseason because they were remember in the preseason it was all this screen close line of scrimmage stuff. And I'm just hoping I'm assuming and I was hoping at the time it was okay we don't want to show our hand and And then in week one, everything was close to line of scrimmage. And then finally, they started to move Terry around the formation a little bit more and get him more deep passes. And then he was just unbelievable. I do think 13 touch challenge is a lot. I'm not expecting that.

Starting point is 00:23:56 And you don't project or count on deep passing touch challenge. But with Jayden and Terry, I feel like you're getting a handful of those each year and in this wide receiver free agent class and the draft like It sounds like there's a chance T. Higgins returned to Cincinnati at that point. It's like Unless they get like Chris Godwin, like who can they actually bring in that really takes meaningful targets away from McLaurin? That's what it comes down to for me. So like again, he's approaching age 30. Like you can always entertain offers, but I'm not like rushing to get him off my team either just because I'm so high on him as a player.

Starting point is 00:24:31 And like we've been waiting for Terry to have an elite quarterback for so long now. So like now that it's here, I kind of want to just maybe ride it out. No, I think that makes sense. And again, it's you hate to trade away guys who you think are actually really good players. It's just also that I think if you're viewing this in terms of Terry McLoran's value, and there's a very good chance this is the peak. Absolutely. And so, especially if you're not contending this year, I would be moving off of Terry McLoran.

Starting point is 00:25:04 That's a totally different discussion. I 100% agree. Speaking of guys who shouldn't be on anyone's roster if they're not contending, Zach Ertz, I think probably wants to go back to Washington and surprisingly is still pretty good at running six yards and catching the ball and falling down. But we saw this in Arizona a couple years ago. Trey McBride gets drafted. Some of us, myself included, get really excited about Trey McBride, plays behind Zach Ertz for the entire season, doesn't matter at all. And then he actually had to play behind Zach Ertz for the first part of the next season until Ertz got hurt.

Starting point is 00:25:36 And then Trey McBride turns into one of the best tight ends in fantasy. Last year, Ben Sinek gets drafted by the commanders, who was some people's favorite tight end in the commanders. He was some people's favorite tight end in the class and he gets this H back designation or whatever and Zach Ertz is by far the best option at tight end on the team and realistically pretty good. I just wonder if, if they don't bring him back, are you expecting a Ben Senate breakout? Is that somebody you want to buy a little on right now?

Starting point is 00:26:04 I wouldn't hate the idea of buying low on him, even if he is back, just because, like you said, like. Earth's his play style really isn't where it's like, I don't I don't think he can last a full season because he just doesn't really get a lot of yards after the catch and stuff, but he's obviously older. I like the selection of Benson when they drafted him. I think he can do a lot of different things for them. And again, like outside of Terry McClure and like there's targets available

Starting point is 00:26:29 there. And I just think I think we would have been viewing Benson it differently if Washington didn't come out of nowhere and exceed expectations going to the NEC title game. Like if they were a 7-win team and they just didn't take this massive leap, we probably see more from Benson in a year where they're not making the playoffs. But when you're when every game is so huge for that team, yeah, you're relying on the veteran a lot more. So I think that maybe had a lot more to do with it.

Starting point is 00:26:55 But again, you look at it. Okay, they just made the NSC championship game and they should be better next year. So but also rookie tight end hard position to learn. I'm cool with buying low on Ben Sennett regardless. I do still have Theo Johnson and Jatavian Sanders ahead of him in the dynasty rankings from last year's class. I think there's probably three tight ends who might be ranked higher than Ben Sennett in dynasty after, after the NFL draft. But that could change really quickly.

Starting point is 00:27:21 I would, I'd be interested to see if I could turn a third round pick into Ben Senate. Um, I think it's a, there's a decent chance that you could after he did just almost nothing. And in some leagues he was drafted, he was a borderline third round pick last year. Let's take one more break. When we come back, we'll talk Kellan Moore, we'll talk Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams. And if you have any questions for Adam, we'll answer those as well. So Kellan Moore wins the Superbowl, takes the Saints head coaching job.

Starting point is 00:27:48 And Adam, one of the things I like to do when I'm going through my, uh, 2025 projections process is look at the last three years, playcalling history from the guy who I think is going to be running the offense. And that's Kellen Moore in New Orleans. And there's no coordinator you will find with a more diverse recent history of offensive play calling between what he did in Dallas, what he did in Los Angeles, what he did in Philadelphia. I think that speaks to the fact that Kellen Moore is a really good coordinator and will adjust based on his talent. What are you expecting from him in New Orleans and who are you excited about?

Starting point is 00:28:22 Yeah, for starters, I think we should see a lot of pace. He's always been a coordinator that plays up tempo. This past season, Eagles, I believe, were second in no-hutter right behind Washington. I also think we've seen, now granted he's had C.D. Lamb and he's had Keenan Allen, but I remember to start the season, Devonta Smith I was so excited about last year because they were playing him

Starting point is 00:28:45 in the slot more than like if the Eagles defense didn't become what it was. I think Devonta Smith would have had a monster year, but then they ran the ball at the highest rating football essentially. And Smith was getting like six targets per game. So I think we could see more crystal in the slot and more of the we started to see it last year, too, until he got hurt hurt but it was way less of the go route and deep balls from crystal other more of the underneath stuff over the middle stuff I think we can continue to see that from him and have him play in the slot more which I'm pretty excited

Starting point is 00:29:15 about so I'm excited about that I'm excited about the pace really comes down to like maybe Derek cars a quarterback but I could see them moving on from him that's really the only question mark I have right now. But yeah, I mean, we've seen Kelle Moore with a handful of different teams with different personnel. And he's made, you know, the Chargers year wasn't the greatest. But for the most part, he's been pretty darn good. Isn't that quarterback situation right now,

Starting point is 00:29:38 like I can't remember a year like this when there's so many teams that I feel like could move off of the first? We did an article with a bunch of the writers at FTN where we had to predict all 32 quarterbacks next year. And there was obviously the easy ones like the Bills, the Chiefs, the Eagles, stuff like that. But then there was teams like the Titans and the Giants and the Saints and the Steelers and the Jets. It could be six different players. And the problem is it's kind of a weak quarterback class.

Starting point is 00:30:06 Yep. And there's not a ton of free agents really excited about. There's some guys right now, I think that we're not expecting to be starting quarterbacks in the NFL that are going to be starting quarterbacks. Yeah, like the one quarterback I didn't have starting was Justin Fields. And I think he could be starting this by by next season pretty easily. Like I just it was a fun exercise,

Starting point is 00:30:24 but it was also like frustrating because like there was those six seven teams where it was just like good luck. I don't know. So one of the guys who will not be starting for his team that he started on last year the Jets Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are split parting ways. How confident are you that Rodgers is going to be a starter next year and is he is he is he still a starter in a super flex league I guess. Yeah spoiler Adam on the Steelers in that article but I'll perfectly honest it was it was purely a guess like he still wants to play only the quarterback probably and their defense good enough to I think they're going to be like hey let's just go get this guy we can maybe contend and maybe make the playoffs. Yeah I mean like he had some games last year, but if he's on the Steelers or something,

Starting point is 00:31:08 like it's way different. Like the Jets actually threw the ball quite a bit with Rogers where the Steelers, like, I think they're just gonna want to run the football. We'll see who their running back is too, but run the football, play defense. Yeah, he's a borderline starter. He's just, you haven't been excited about Rogers

Starting point is 00:31:22 for like four years now. No, and to be honest, I wasn't very excited about Devontae Adams going into last year. That looked right the first half of the year and then the second half of the year, he was just Devontae Adams again, in a good way because of his fantasy production and in a bad way because his target hogging ruined Garrett Wilson in the second half of the season. Nothing more frustrating than my most important redraft team ruined Garrett Wilson in the second half of frustrating than my most important redraft team having Garrett Wilson and just watching the jets games and like, especially it was the Jacksonville game.

Starting point is 00:31:53 They get down to the one and I'm like, Oh, they're just kind of force a fade that Devon's Adams. Yep. They did. Like it was, it w I get it. And I love Devon tabs. One of my favorite receivers of the last decade, but like it was, it was pretty tilting at times Are we just expecting that wherever he goes this year? He's gonna average 10 targets a game again I think I saw what he wants he would like to play on the West Coast. So like maybe the Chargers Maybe the Rams I

Starting point is 00:32:22 Don't it's it's a lot more difficult with Adams because like if he didn't go to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, is he definitely getting 10 targets per game? I think he still has the skill set to command 10 targets per game, but the Rogers effect had a lot to do with that for sure. Yeah, I don't know. I think he's probably like eight to 10, depending on the landing spot.

Starting point is 00:32:45 Like if he was, if he pretty much took a Cooper Cups role, would you expect 10 targets per game from him? I would hope that he would not negatively impact Pukka Nakula. I could absolutely see him negatively impacting Lad McConkey. For sure. And like, again, take it with a grain of salt because it's Aaron Rodgers But when he joined the Jets last season Damonte Adams He had almost 35% of the Jets red zone targets Like yeah, if you were hoping Garrett Wilson scored a touchdown it would pretty much had to come from 20 plus yards out Absolutely maddening on the flip side of that

Starting point is 00:33:20 Are you are you just all the way back in on Garrett Wilson now with Adams gone or do you need to see the quarterback is first? I'm mostly in because like You still watch him you still see a good player and like Let's let's just be honest like Aaron Rodgers wasn't that good last year so like I don't even know even know, like, if whoever they bring in if it's, if it's a downgrade, if at all. So I think he's probably seen his value drop a little bit, especially with some of these rookie receivers coming up, like Brian Thomas,

Starting point is 00:33:56 Jr. is pretty easily out of him, for instance, but like, I'm not, I'm definitely still in on him. I'm not like all in, but I'm, I'm in on Garrett Wilson still. He's produced with bad situations, bad quarterback play, and all it takes is that one year like we saw from Terry McClure and like talented player just finally has the right situation around him. And then you have a top five season. Which I assume we're on the same page and hoping that he gets Jamis Winston. I mean, just ask Jerry Judy. Like any any but I think that's like he's the wild card for wide, the wide receiver position is I think wherever he ends up if a team, I mean Jerry Judy average 21 PPR points per game and James starts so Garrett Wilson might be the wide receiver one in 2025. If James Winston goes to the Jets, Adam fantastic stuff as always, always enjoy talking to you. Remind everybody where they can find your work and tell them what you've got coming up. Yeah, appreciate it. It's always fun chatting with you, Heath.

Starting point is 00:34:47 FTNFantasy.com, check out all my stuff there. Football and basketball, my two loves. And yeah, the podcast for the numbers at FTN Fantasy, doing the season and review series. And then I'm starting to do, you know, I got to start. I'm not sure how deep you've gotten into it, but you look at the calendar, it's already mid February. It's time to start getting into the draft prospects, which is always fun So I gotta start doing that but I'll be doing content for that as well

Starting point is 00:35:11 Thank you to Adam. Thank you to Thomas. Thank you everybody who was active in the chat today We will talk to you next Tuesday The Paramount Podcast.

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