Fantasy Football Today - Bold Predictions! Malik Nabers, George Pickens, Tank Dell and More (06/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 20, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Our opening round of bold predictions (1:25) features bold calls on the Bucs wide receivers, George Pickens and Tank Dell. Pickens will do something that he has barely done in his first two seasons, and Dell will be one of the biggest steals in Fantasy drafts! We've also got some news and notes (13:15) ... Jamey gives bold predictions on rushing quarterbacks (14:00) and James Cook (18:50). Heath makes bold statements about Calvin Ridley (23:45) and Patrick Mahomes (27:45) ... Adam makes the bust case for Derrick Henry (32:30) and makes a bold call on Malik Nabers (42:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Bold predictions right now on Fantasy Football today. Three from Jamie, three from Heath, three from me. Oh, you have four. I have four?

Yep. Well, I don't remember that. Your, you have four. I have four? Yep. Well, I don't remember that. Your fourth one is impressive. Oh, boy. I don't know where this is going, but I know it's not good. It doesn't feel good. No, as I texted you, it's the boldest prediction I've ever seen.

What is this? Do you want me to do it now? I don't want you to do it at all if I'm well it's supposed to it's the very top of the show you've got the boldest predictions if you have the boldest prediction then you should go first

you you put it in writing I don't have that I have one bold prediction I was going to let you guys choose your bold prediction that you wanted to give it has nothing to do with me here

Jamie give the one you want to give it's Adam's alright I'm going to give Adam's I just want to make sure because Adam says I don't always quote him accurately. I want to get it a hundred percent accurate. He also says I never read his notes.

And so that's a lie as well. So this is what Adam sent in his notes, which is about bold predictions. And he was referencing one of his bold predictions, which is, I'm going to reveal yours out. And when I get to it, cause you put yours at the bottom.

So you're, you have Chris Godwin outscores Mike Evans and PPR that is one of your bold predictions correct yes um you you you went so far as to say that and this is your words yeah um Godwin outscored Evans in 2029. So not only 2024, we're skipping ahead five years. That's how bold you are that in 2029, Chris Godwin will be better than Mike Evans. So at that point, we'll be 37 years old. Yeah, I feel pretty good about that. Actually, I didn't even realize. I don't even think it's that bold. Going into, I guess we can start with this. Chris Godwin outscores Mike Evans. I looked at Fantasy Pro's PPR ADP.

They are 20 spots apart. Evans is wide receiver 16, I think, and Godwin is wide receiver 36. So I do think it's a bold prediction. But, you know, you look at the history, and this is the part I hadn't done until this morning, Chris Godwin in full PPR on a per game basis outscored Evans in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

They were tied on a per game basis in 2022. Evans crushed him last year, but I don't even really think it's that bold. I just don't think there should be 20 spots necessarily separating them in ADP. So that is my first bold prediction. What about 2028? What's going to happen then?

I still like Godwin in 2028. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's a, you know, half PPR Goblin outscored him in 2019. They were basically tied in 2020 and 2021. And then Evans has had the upper hand the last two seasons.

And obviously you could say, well, Baker Mayfield, you know, it's different. And he's maybe just has that connection, but I, I still think there's Goblin is one of the most obvious regression

candidates in terms of touchdowns. I think Evans regresses in terms of some of his rate stats. And it doesn't even feel that bold to me, but Chris Godwin, 20 spots. You know what the target difference was the final five games of the season. I'm going to guess Godwin had two more targets. Two.

Yeah. No, he's three, 12. Two? Yeah. No, Heath? Three. Twelve. He had more. Yeah. But Heath actually really pointed out a good,

I don't know, a little nuance of that is that Godwin had what, like a zero target game or something like that against Carolina? What was it? Two targets? Zero targets. Zero targets? No, I'm sorry. Zero catches.

He had three targets in the game. Okay. And then they really, like the next week, they really seemed to make up for that. And then I think. The next two weeks. Next two weeks.

Okay. But Evans really saw, I mean, 12 targets is a lot, you know, so that was a pretty big difference based on how the beginning part of the season went. All right.

So I think you guys could be on board with that bold prediction. Godwin's outscoring Evans. Godwin outscoring Evans. Yes. I don't have it ranked that way, but yes. All right, how about you, Jamie? Kick us off with one of your bold predictions.

I'll go with George Pickens leading the NFL in touchdown receptions. Ooh, Heath, what do you think? I love it. I would have probably, I would say that two of the players that Jamie has bold predictions about, probably I would, not the same bold predictions, but I would have had bold predictions about if Jamie hadn't turned his in first. And I think Pickens is probably one of the most volatile players going into this year because he could do just that. He could be a top 12 wide receiver, and I wouldn't be that surprised. Things could absolutely blow up in Pittsburgh, too.

Yeah. So he has, in his career, five touchdown catches. He has 14 red zone targets, 11 end zone targets. Just last year, Cortland Sutton had 17 red zone targets. That's three more than Pickens' entire career. And 15 end zone targets, that's four more than Pickens'

in his entire career. So I hope we get a little, you know, I hope we get that type of usage. She hasn't been, Pickens hasn't been a red zone target yet. They haven't thrown red zone passes. Yeah, you gotta throw zone target yet. They haven't thrown red zone passes. Yeah, you got to throw about almost everything. They have thrown some red zone passes.

Like they just, we got as many touchdown passes the past two seasons as Russell Wilson had in 15 games last year or something. But yes, touchdown passes. Yeah, they had like 26 or something over the last two seasons. Something terrible. The fun part of it, obviously, is looking at what Russell Wilson has done with his receivers. And in his career, he has six receivers for six times a receiver has caught

10 plus touchdowns dk metcalf did it twice tyler lockett did it twice sutton did it once and the one that's kind of interesting is doug baldwin who had 14 touchdowns i believe it was 2015 uh no i'm sorry so it might be 2015 um that led the nfl so he has had a receiver lead the nfl and touchdown receptions before yeah excellent okay uh heath how about you let's give me one of your bold predictions tank dell will be the number one wide receiver for the texans and a number one wide receiver for fantasy a top 12 guy if you look at the eight games that he played more than half of the offensive snaps last year his 16 game game pace, we don't even look at that. Like say he misses a game, 16 game pace, 82 catches, 1,236 yards, 14 touchdowns. Oh yeah. He gets a rush attempt per game as well. He will be a top

12 wide receiver this year. What's your reaction to that, Jamie? It's pretty bold. Tank Dell being the number one, which is actually bolder that he's the number one receiver for the Texans selected and he's more of a number two receiver. So if Tank Dell does finish as a number one receiver and everybody stays healthy, then I think that's very bold by Heath that, that Dell does perform at that level, but look, he's, he's capable of it. I mean, we saw his rookie, he was doing phenomenal things. We know that CJ Stroud loves him and there's an opportunity for him to be the last one drafted. Cause I think that's how ADP will sort of shake itself out and then he outperforms the other two guys so it's a great call all the way around but certainly the more bold part is him being a number one wide receiver who do you guys like better george pickens or tank dell i like pickens better i think i know i have pickens higher

in ppr um i'm right Back to back. They're both going to be better in half and non than they are in full PPR, I expect. I'm going to say Tank. I love both. I'm a little surprised that Dell is going ahead of Pickens in ADP, both Fantasy Pros and NFC average draft position.

So, yeah, it's pretty interesting. Actually, we have a really good email. We're going to do a mailbag show. We're actually recording it at 1130, about an hour from now with Dan Schneier. We have an email about, do you prefer the number one guy on a, on a worse offense or the number two guy on a really good offense?

It's something like that. And this is actually maybe the number three guy on a great offense versus the clear number one guy on an if, on a, I don't know what kind of offense they're going to be. So it is interesting to me that people are preferring all three, based on early ADP. Well, I think most of what, both Dell and Pickens will be better in best ball,

so maybe it doesn't matter, but most of what you're looking at is best ball ADP. And I think Dell is going to be much more popular there than when you have to decide where to start him. Also, I talked about what his pace was for 16 games in the games he played half of the game. I take all the games he played, including one where I'm not sure that he had a catch,

and he still averaged 15 fantasy points per game, the same as Amore cooper last year and was wide receiver 19 on a per game basis tank dell was so like you don't you can just azer status numbers and he becomes a top 12 wide receiver pretty easily if if the i think it was eight games maybe nine where he dell and stroud all played more than 50% of the snaps. It couldn't have been more than eight because there was only eight that Dell played half the snaps. Okay, yeah. So it was eight.

Sorry. You just said that. He and Nico had very, very similar numbers. Almost the same amount of targets. So a different type of production. I care about that. I could get that. but all right, whatever. All right, so there are your three bowl predictions,

three of the nine. Chris Godwin will outscore Mike Evans. George Pickens will lead the NFL in touchdown receptions. Tank Dell will be the best Texans receiver and a number one, a top 12 overall wide receiver. Heath, what do we have this week on FFT Dynasty? We are going to do a startup mock draft tomorrow. So we'll do a one quarterback startup mock draft.

We'll start at 11 a.m. Eastern. We're going to have people from around the industry, including some people from CBS. We haven't done a one QB mock in way too long. It was seven games that both Dell and Collins played more than 50% of the snaps. Tank Dell was on pace for 129 targets.

Nico Collins, 126 targets. Nico had, uh, he was on pace for 95 more yards though, but Dell three more touchdowns. They were both on pace for 15 touchdowns. When you say 95 more yards,

you mean receiving yards, not total yards, right? Okay. Uh, amazing numbers for these guys. 15 touchdowns for Dell. When you say 95 more yards, you mean receiving yards, not total yards, right? Yeah, receiving yards. Amazing numbers for these guys. Over 1,365 yards and 15 touchdowns for Dell. That was his pace.

1,460 yards, 12 touchdowns for Nico Collins. Nico did have 10 red zone targets. Dell had only three in that stretch. We are going to take a break. We got a note on George Kittle, the weight loss king. And I got to make fun of Dan. You know, I'm going to make fun of Dan. No, right after the break, I'm going to make fun of Dan, even though he's not here to defend himself. He can do

that on the Mailbag Show. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Miller Lite. The light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time. When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca

Must be legal drinking age. I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh, what? Just like that? Just like that. How about dinner with my third cousin? Skip it. Prince Fluffy's favorite treats?

Skippable. Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices? Nope, you're on your own there. Could have skipped it, should have skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. So Jamie teased with a text message before the show that I made some really bold prediction and he was going to bring it up. And I thought he was going to make fun of one of my bold predictions as not being bold at all. That's not what happened. I was just making a prediction about 2029.

But Dan, on the other hand, one of his bold predictions is that B. John Robinson will be the number one running back in fantasy. And it's like, oh, whoa, really? You mean the third the third guy off the third running back off the board the first round pick he is the third guy off the board but he was like rb20 last year and i think i have mcafree projected for 75 more fantasy points than bijon you think you're letting him off the hook you think it's okay i think it's okay? I think it's fine. Okay. I mean, it's not like, listen, we can't all make predictions about 2029.

It's true. Should we try though? All right. News and notes. Not a lot today. George Kittle lost nearly 30 pounds after off-season core surgery, which he was playing with an injury for the second half of the season

and all through the Super Bowl. Kittle says he's almost back to 100%, but he still hopes to gain about 10 pounds before the season starts. Titans tight end Chico Conittle says he's almost back to 100%, but he still hopes to gain about 10 pounds before the season starts. Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo says he feels better about his body and just where he is right now. And that's just a name that we haven't really

said much of. Is Chig a top 20 tight end for you guys? Yeah. No. Okay. And Seattle signed a UFL running back, Ricky Person. And that is all I've got for news and notes, which is great.

Cause let's spend more time on our bold predictions. Jamie, give me your second bold prediction, which I feel like you had a similar one last year. Injuries prevented it maybe from happening, but give me this one about quarterback rushing yards. Last year was that we would have, did I say three? Oh, I'm sorry. We would have multiple guys go 3,000, 1,000.

Okay. 3,000 passing and 1,000 rushing. This year, it's a little bit more realistic, but still would take the first time it would happen. Three quarterbacks will go over 800 rushing yards. And so let me get the exact number of guys that have done that in nfl history because it's not much 11 right uh there's been 11 times one guy has done it three times which is kind of the easy one to peg because every time he's been healthy he's done it which is lamar jackson so every time he's played at least

15 games he's been over 800 rushing yards so if you buy into him staying healthy that's an easy number for him to uh reach the other would be anth Richardson. Um, as we saw last year, he was on pace to do that. Um, if he stays healthy based on his two healthy games, you could sort of azer stat it all the way you want to. But if you just take the two games that he finished, um, put that on pace for 17 game season, that's over 800 yards rushing. And then the third guy is the one that we have yet to see, but clearly has done it in college, which is Jane Daniels. Um, he averaged, I didn't put this in the bowl prediction, but he did average over 77 rushing yards per game in his two years at LSU, which would easily, uh, be over 800 yards rushing. If he did that, uh, just by comparison, Lamar Jackson last year,

average 51 yards rushing per game. So, uh, you get that you're looking at a thousand yard rusher from Jane Daniels. So, um, love the situation for all three of these guys. We know running quarterbacks have the ability to break fantasy. Daniels will be the one that I think you want to target because he'll go the last of the trio. But if all three of these guys hit 800 yards rushing, they're going to compete to be top five quarterbacks. Who has the most rushing upside of those three? Daniels. I think I still have to say Lamar. I think Lamar is the safest floor, but I think upside,

if you just want to put that word with it, you know, if, if, if he runs like he did in college, it's going to be ridiculous. Yeah. Well, that would be,

I mean, 800. God, they would all, you're right. They would all be probably really competing for top five. All right. I,

Heath, I mean, they can't really argue with this one, right? This is a solid, bold prediction. It's yeah. Lots of fun. I think the biggest, you said it at the, when you were introducing the bold prediction, the injuries got in the way last year.

And that is the biggest risk to this one for both Richardson and Daniels is can they stay healthy and play maybe only need 16 games. I think they could both average 50 yards rushing per game. Maybe it's 40. I don't have projected quite that high, but yeah, they're definitely the top contenders. But I do think when you say injury, we do have to consider Lamar as well, because the years that he did not do this was the years that he got hurt. Any other quarterback you think could reach 800? I guess Kyler.

You know, two years removed from the ACL. If they allow him to do it. I don't think Deshaun Watson anymore. No. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts certainly are in the discussion. Hurts probably more so, but... Yeah. It's hard to expect that because I think they're evolving as players.

Lamar is too, which is why I think he was just barely over 800 last year. But again, he didn't play Week 18. So these three feel like the safest to accomplish this feat. Again, one has done it three times. One seemingly has the ability to do so. Well, the other two, just unproven, but they have the ability to do so. And I think it's worth noting Hurts hasn't done it, has the ability to do so. Well, the other two, just unproven, but they have the ability to do so. And I think it's worth noting Hurts hasn't done it,

but he had 784 in 15 games in 2021. He had 760 in 15 games in 2022. So in terms of the yards per game, he had it both of those years. He just didn't play. And he only needed 16. He just needed one more game, probably. It did fall off in a big way last year yeah so do i get it right if three different guys do it yes of course yeah yeah any three absolutely any three you could you could you could i'm glad we got a daniel jones reference daniel jones could do it and you'd be

you'd be said someone did bring it up jones. Jones was on pace for like 750 rushing yards in 2022, and then last year in his first five. Did he get to that number? Close. I think it was like just. He was over 700? Yeah, I think it was like just over 700, and he played 16 out of 17 games. Last year, his first five games, he got hurt in his sixth game.

His first five games, he was on pace for 670 yards. But, of course, he's coming off a torn ACL, and now he's just going to throw to Malik Nabors on every play. Oh, and here's another one, too. Like, Justin Fields just needs to take the job by week two or three, and he could do it. Oh, yeah, absolutely. All right, James Cook will lead all running backs in receptions.

That is a pretty bold prediction coming off a 44 catch season, Jamie, for James Cook. And this is why you're so confident in him as a second round pick in PPR. You think the catches are going way up? Yeah, I mean, we've referenced this a few times already on the show, so at least I hope not have to continue to reference the reasoning. But Joe Brady, when he took over in those nine games, he was on pace for 53 catches on 66 targets. You take out the game. This is me, Azar statting it, take out the game where he surprisingly did not get a target in week 16 at the chargers that bumps up to 60 receptions on 74 targets. Uh, again, just a lot of, uh, vacated production from the receiving core, 241 targets and 152 receptions gone from Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis.

And so while Keon Coleman now there, Curtis Samuel now there, bigger roles for Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, obviously James Cook is going to get a big piece of that as well. And so it's going to take a huge leap for him to get to, you know, 70 plus catches. Cause I think that's what it's going to take last year, Brees Hall 76, Alvin Kamara 75, despite missing three games. So those guys, you know, those type of players, I think still profile as the easier selections to lead the position in receptions. But James Cook's role is going to be, I think, a big part of it in the passing game. And I'm excited to see what he can do. So yes, that's why I do like him as a second round pick. Plus, you know, you just look at everything he did when Brady took over and he was on pace for almost 340 total touches,

over 1,500 total yards, and 10 total touchdowns. And so that's a big piece I think that's missing. But from a pass-catching standpoint, I think he's going to have a big year. So that's James Cook. And anything to add, Heath? This is the other guy, I think. I've got James Cook at like 15 or 16 overall in full ppr and so absolutely on board with this i might have chosen to say that he's going to be a

top what do i what would you have to say to be bold the top five running back top four running back in fantasy scoring this year um he's uh he's sixth or seventh in my running back rankings right now so i think he's got an excellent chance to be top five. And how many catches do you have James Cook projected for? 50. Okay. Yeah. So, you know, if I wouldn't mind,

if you wouldn't mind taking this time to actually talk about Kamara, because I looked at, like, I guess the five running backs. Tell me if I'm missing anybody that are most likely to lead the position in catches James Cook, Alvin Camara, Christian McCaffrey, Rashad White, Brees Hall. I didn't put Jalen Warren in there. Am I missing me? I Bijon probably should be on Gibbs. Gibbs didn't have that many catches last year, but I don't know. He should probably be up there too, right? I have McCaffrey, Hall, and Kamara

all projected for 69 catches, which is the most I have for anybody. So yeah, so Kamara, he was on pace for 98 catches last year. The two years before that were like 62 and 65 catches but before that it was always 85 or more so i don't really know i one thing that happened was the saints threw like 500 they threw 504 times in 2021 512 times in 2022 and then 606 times last year. So that certainly helps anyone. But 69 catches for Kamara,

based on most of his career, it's really low. Based on 21 and 22, it's perfectly right on, basically. So how did you come up with that? I generally look at a three-year window, but also he's older, so he's going to be downgraded a little bit

from what he's done in the past. And you have to factor in a little bit of uncertainty because it's a new OC. It is. Never saw, you ever see this? Yeah, but that might benefit him, though. Could. Given the system.

Kamara was talking about the, the first name he mentioned about when he was asked about Kubiak was Christian McCaffrey. Right, and McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey. Right. And McCaffrey's not catching 90 passes with the Niners. What did he catch last year? He caught 71 catches. 71 catches

on 88 targets for McCaffrey. That was his 17-game pace. I think he played 17 games. Well, that's because they have Debo and Kittle and Ayuk, though. Basically, New Orleans has Ayuk, maybe, but that's pretty much it. Here's Alvin Kamara. I'll just finish with this.

His 17 game pace for catches in seven seasons. Kamara, 86, 92, 98, 94, 61, 65, 98. And it's hard to explain. Target per outrun rate way down in 21 and 22. Came right back up

to where it usually is in 23. Anyway, let's go to Heath's bold predictions here. I think this is, I don't know if this is the boldest one yet, but it's up there. Your Calvin Ridley bold prediction. Yes, Calvin Ridley will be the guy that everyone expected him to be last year. I think he was drafted as a top 15 wide receiver,

borderline wide receiver one in round three, had just both a terrible and I think unlucky year. A lot of drops or catching touchdowns with at least one foot on the out-of-bounds marker. I don't think that's necessarily predictive. And this is one of the stranger things and maybe the more bold prediction is, like I was looking at it,

because I do feel weird about, I don't think Will Levis is as good as Trevor Lawrence, as much as I like to joke about Trevor Lawrence. And I have Will Levis projected for better passing stats this year than Trevor Lawrence had last year. But it's mostly just because Trevor Lawrence had bad passing stats last year. I just think this could be a better offensive environment,

whether it's because they have a lot more success in the red zone or because they just do a better job scheming things up. But yeah, I expect Ridley to be the number one wide receiver in this offense and it'd be close between him and Hopkins and he's going to be a top 15 guy. Your thoughts, Jamie, it's going to take a lot, you know,

for, I think for him to get there, you know, again, a year older Hopkins, still a big part of this. I think an under two underrated guys, you mentioned one in Chico Conco,

Tyler Boyd being familiar with this offense, I think is going to be someone that's valuable for Will Levis and just eats into both of these guys and what they do. I'm very curious, you know, just because of how we're going to see the backfield and everything that we've heard from almost every offensive coach in Tennessee, how they're going to be interchangeable in TyJ Spears and Tony Pollard. Both those guys were in the top 15 in receptions and targets at the running back spot as well. Now, granted, they didn't play on the same team, but different offense. How much will they be a part of this? So I think Ridley is the best bet to be the best Titans wide receiver. I don't have as high expectations as Heath does, but I do think if you get him at the right price,

he could be a potential number two wide receiver. I would prefer to draft him as a number three guy. It's just a matter of can he beat Jamar Chase in Callahan's offense, and that's, I think, what the Titans are hoping for, which is why they paid him what they paid him and hoping that he can perform like he was drafted last year. Okay, so we got a Tank Dell bold prediction from Heath, a Calvin Ridley bold prediction from Heath.

Let's just take a look at where Calvin Ridley is going in some average draft position. He's going on NFC 65th overall right after George Pickens. Which is probably like wide receiver 45. No, that's fantasy pros. This would be, I'll tell you,

just wide receiver. I'm going to guess it's about 28. 32. Wide receiver 32. So after Higgins, after Rasheedishi rice which i have a pretty long date range here so take that for what it's worth george pickens calvin ridley jayden reed christian kirk i actually think ridley versus kirk is is pretty interesting right let me take a look at their numbers when they were both on the field first 11 games games. Ridley had 47 catches, 663 yards, five touchdowns on 76 targets.

Christian Kirk had nine more catches, 100 more yards or 98 more yards, two fewer touchdowns on eight more targets. So he, other than the touchdowns, he outperformed him. They were basically the same on points per game and overall points, but that's kind of just an interesting comparison. Ridley's getting Hopkins. Kirk is losing Ridley and they're going almost back to back in ADP guys.

I don't want to really debate them because I think they're both like you could take one of them around earlier than they're going and the other one where they're going. And I love them both like Christian Kirk outside the top 30 wide receivers doesn't make any sense to me at all yeah all right what's our last bold prediction heath less bold but patrick mahomes will break peyton manning single season record for most passing yards three three transactions, the acquisition of Marquise Brown, the draft of Xavier Worthy, the loss of LeJarius Sneed.

All three of those are going to work in his favor. He wasn't that far away in 2022 when he threw for 52-50, and in 2018, 2019, he threw for 5,097 yards in 16 games. It's time for that record to fall. It's time for Mahomes to own it. What was the record?

Five. Five. I don't know. I thought that was... 5,427? 77. 5,477. It's 16 games.

That's insane. Yeah, he's not going7. It's 16 games. That's insane. Yeah, he's not going to do it in 16 games. And 55 touchdowns that year. And this is just a good reminder that, like, and Jamie brought this up, we're pretty much the only people with Mahomes as QB1. Now, how many six-point-per-passing touchdown rankings lists do you look at?

I feel like there's a lot more four than six these days. That's true, mostly, yes. The thing is that they don't specify. Right. Yeah. And even on early CBS ADP, which Dave's doing a good job, I know, to try to get that in shape a little bit earlier,

and both Hertz and Allen are ahead of Mahomes. And most of those leagues are six for sure. Peyton Manning averaged 32.5 points per game in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues in that 2013 season. Which is very close to what Mahomes did in 2018 and Allen did in 2019. Yeah. Wow. They both ran a lot more than Peyton Manning. Holmes was 32.2 at his best, but okay.

2013. Last thing here. What did, how many yards did Peyton Manning rush for in 2013? He rushed for negative, negative 31 yards. Negative 31. Right. Holy cow. Is that right?

Holy cow. He had 32 carries. He must have just taken, he took two knees a game. 32 carries for negative 31 yards and one touchdown. All right, let's take a break here on Fantasy Football today. I'll give you two more of my bold predictions after this. What year? What year?

2033. We'll be right back. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is. It's definitely not that.

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Remember to follow all traffic signals, be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Got a comment here from Johnny Airport 2. Jamie must be due for a trim. He's been wearing that hat a lot lately. That's true.

Definitely a haircut. Me too. I'm getting that. I think that's going to be tomorrow. Happy birthday. Thank you. Thank you. My birthday was just fine.

I started out my 40s by writing a nasty note to our fantasy baseball league because Commissioner Jack still hasn't changed our record. And now he is making things up about me. So I'm kind of ornery today. I just decided I'm not in my 30s anymore. I'm going to be grumpy. Listen, there's a long history of this. There was nothing surprising about you sending this angry email complaining about something in your 30s or calling a city administrator or anything like that. So you're just becoming who you've always been. And happy birthday.

Thank you very much. It was a great night. And we bought an ice cream cake. And then my mom, I guess I should remember she does this every year and I'm always surprised she sent me a cookie cake which arrived about an hour before well like like 10 minutes before dinner I was like oh now we just have way too much cake so if you guys want cookie cake let me know I'll it's really good I'm trying to give it away okay here are some bold predictions I said Chris Godwin will outscore Mike Evans in PPR.

I think Derrick Henry will be one of the biggest busts in fantasy. Instead of saying I think, I'm just going to call it a bold prediction because it ties me to it a little bit less. But he's a 30-year-old running back with more than 2,000 carries, no more than 33 catches in a season, and basically what could go wrong? It's just so obvious the bus potential there before you get there so i just want to understand something what would you have done if father's day was on your birthday after all the desserts you ate on father's day yeah and then what you had

for your birthday like you're a borderline diabetic right now no i knew this was gonna be a gluttonous week like Tuesday night, I went out for barbecue and I... That was impressive eating by the whole table. I have to detox. I'm in detox mode now. I think no sweets until at least Sunday.

Oh, there's an ice cream social on Saturday that we're going to. No sweets until Saturday. Is that okay? You might have a problem. I've been playing. I've been running around a lot. I've been playing a lot of sports,

so I'm justifying it. You know? Like before I was always just lounging around. Now I'm very active. I can do this. Okay. Running from the dugout to the plate and then back to the dugout. No, no. You played second base. You played second base. You played second base. I'm the dugout to the plate and then back to the dugout.

No, you played second base. You played second base. You played second base. I'm the second baseman now. Oh, you've moved. You got moved up. Or you just had some problems with the fly balls. And so somewhere else. That's how it started. Yeah.

But I'm the second baseman. Have you turned two yet? Nobody turns... They're lucky to turn one. There are no double plays in this league except for our team, which I told Jamie and Dave we had a triple play turned against us on Monday. So quite the feat.

Do you have an extra base hit yet? No, not even close. Derek Henry will be one of the biggest busts in fantasy. And you know what, Heath? Who's better, you as a second baseman or the Yankees catcher last night? He's got a real issue. He can't throw anyone out. So, him.

Heath, you're on board with Derrick Henry as a bust risk. I know it. Yes, Yeah. And I get why nobody else seems to be because anybody who's worked in this industry for the last five years has taken a turn on this merry-go-round. And talked about either him having too many touches the year before or him being too old or too many combined touches and for the most part it's not worked out but um yeah i've got him in full ppr projections he is my number 19 running back so i am not probably going to draft any derrick henry thankfully i traded for him and a couple of dynasty leagues where I'm contending.

But no, I'm out with you. Yeah. When you say traded for, do you mean gave? I traded for him. He was giving to you for free? I gave the appropriate value for an RB2 who's 30 years old. Okay. Okay, this was Chris, right?

It was. I think Chris... How did you get there, Henry, by the way? How did he get there, Henry? I traded to Chris three years ago for a first and second round pick.

Yep. Oh, that's... You can't... That's totally legit to make a trade with the same player for three years. What was the trade

this time around? I can find it it's gonna take just a second though it was a lot of players okay so i'll just read some comments in the meantime a triple play in slow pitch softball seems like the lowest point one could reach in life you guys should honestly just walked off the field and said okay we're done i mean we've made we were we were done before that play. I tell you, we lost 17-0. Adam is a 130-year-old man in a 40-year-old body.

Say I'm a 130-year-old man in a 12-year-old body, if you've seen my arms. Okay. I think he may have meant to say 13-year-old man in a 40-year-old body is what he was going for there. I'm not sure which is true, but I acquired Kirk Cousins, Derrick Henry, and Devontae Adams.

This is a one quarterback league, so Kirk Cousins' value is very limited. But Cousins, Henry, and Adams. I gave up a 2024 first. It was the 13th pick. I 2024, a pair of 2024 thirds, a 2024 fourth and a 2025 fifth and sixth. Yeah,

that's a bad, that's, yeah, you crushed that trade. Well done. I hope so. I hope, you know, it's possible by the time we get to the time when I'm going to need those guys. Because honestly, I probably don't need those guys to get to the fantasy playoffs. So I'm going to need them in December. Let's hope that Henry and Adams are still healthy and contributing by December. That's why, and this is a point on Dynasty Trades, I would not trade for Derek Henry or Devante Adams or Kirk Cousins at full cost in May.

There's just too much risk. So I'm going to have to get a discount if I'm going to trade for somebody that old this time of year. Yeah, Chris was critical of my Trey McBride Malik neighbors trade and he made that trade. I think that's a little hypocritical.

Yeah, I think the the it's it's if you look I use the Dynasty the, uh, it's, it's, if you look, I use the dynasty league football trade analyzer. Um, I have my own trade chart, but I've talked about this before.

It's based on my values and it's what I'm telling people they should do. The dynasty league football is based more on what everyone else does. And, um, it, our trade was much closer by my trade chart than it was by that one. Oh, is that right?

So, you know, this could be a little bit of a detour here, but I have a tight end philosophy that I don't know that anyone else has, but because I think tight ends, for the most part, they don't usually finish as top 15, and a lot of cases don't really finish as top 20 wide receivers. Let's say,

you know, you do have the Kelsey's of the world and the, like the one Andrew season, but for the most part, tight ends have been valuable because of how they compare to the rest of the tight end position. Uh, we're,

you know, our dynasty league is a super flex league that starts two running backs, two receivers and three flexes and one tight end. So I think that devalues tight end, which is why I was more willing to give up Trey McBride because he just doesn't score that many points, but you know, percentage wise for my team. Whereas I play in one league, I think two leagues, actually FFT opens one of them where it's two running backs, two receivers, one flex and a tight end. And in that format, I care a lot more about the tight end. It just seems to matter more for my team.

So I know that was one of my reasons for... I traded the seventh pick and McBride for the fourth pick, which I used on neighbors, right? And there was also a Minshew and a late second rounder involved there. But if we took out the Minshew and the second round pick, it's 1- seven and McBride for for neighbors. Would you take it one seven? May. OK, so Drake May and McBride for neighbors. I just that's my philosophy on tight ends. The deeper the league in terms of players started,

the less I care about tight end. Well, it's also I mean, you wanted neighbors you have a belief that he's going to be a superstar and in some cases taking out your giants fandom but in some cases when you have a feeling about somebody you have to overpay in some cases to get it and it might be a slight overpay but it's like you said it's fairly you know what you would have had to do to move up to get that i don't think he was going to necessarily take you know less than that he wasn't going to take chris tower's trade for it but you know it was uh you know that what you would have had to do to move up to get that. I don't think he was going to necessarily take, you know, less than that. He wasn't going to take Chris towers trade for it, but you know, it was, uh,

you know, that type of move that you had to do to go get them. Not a tight end premium league. One person's asking that transitions into my last bold prediction, which will be that Malik neighbors will be a top 12 wide receiver, which, uh, is before you go there in terms of Henry,

because we didn't really spend a lot of time. Do both of you feel he's going to struggle if he stays healthy? Or is health factored into it? No, I'm not factoring health in at all. I mean, I think with him, you know, just all those carries, you just got to figure, like, he could wear down. Yeah, I think there's a chance he struggles if healthy. I do.

I wouldn't say. I don't think there's a chance that he's bad if healthy. I do. I wouldn't say. I don't think there's a chance that he's bad if healthy. I think there's a chance that he's healthy and an RB2 and not an RB01. Yeah. Three new starters on the offensive line. I know we always take their offensive line for granted, but it's different this year.

Yeah, but I would take the three new starters on that offensive line by comparison to what he had to deal with last year with a better offense around him. And the game script, I think, is huge for him. So my neighbor's prediction is that he'll be a top 12 pick or a top 12 overall wide receiver, which is bolder if you look at Dave, Jamie, and Heath's rankings.

Jamie has neighbors 30, Dave 31, Heath has him 43rd. ADP, he's higher. I think people seem higher on neighbors. He's 24th in ADP on NFC. He's 18th on Fantasy Pros. Again, that could be best ball. Jamie, Dave, and Heath are giving redraft. But I think people are higher on neighbors than CBS is personally. And just look, Dave thankfully pointed this out when we talked about this on FFT and five, I was really, really high on Malik neighbors before the NFL draft. So this is only bold because he's on the Giants. If he had gone to a good situation, it'd probably be a second round pick. It's only bold because

he's on the Giants. So I think the third, I Giants. I think if he just went to a normal situation, he would be a third round pick in redraft. So yeah, I agree with you. It's only bold because he's on the Giants. How likely do you think this is? Let's see my three bold predictions.

Goblin outscores Evans. Derek Henry is a huge bust. Malik Nabors, top 12 wide receiver. Rank them in order of boldness, most to least. This is by far the most bold. Yeah's how rank them in order of boldness? Most to least. This is by far the most bold. Yeah, this is by far the most bold. Really? He's so then Henry, then Godwin. I would go or no, then Godwin, then Henry. Yeah. Um, just to

give you somebody else's perspective. Um, you find it because one of our colleagues had some interesting, an interesting note on this. Uh, RJ White drafted him in our magazine and I asked everybody as part of their draft to give me a, I asked a question. I'm trying to find what RJ's answer was in regard to this because it was, he drafted neighbors and he drafted him not too high but high enough so the question i asked him was uh you drafted him neighbors in round five what are your expectations for him and he said uh justin jefferson's rookie stats are on the table which was 88 1407 and he says i don't think he's below 80 1105 if he's healthy. So I don't necessarily agree with the Jefferson production because that would be, I think a little hard to attain. Um, cause Jefferson was, was just that good as a rookie. And I don't, I don't know if neighbors, I don't want to put

those types of expectations on him, but the, the other numbers are realistic, you know, 80, 1105, if he has a big enough season in this passing sort of environment with the quarterbacks maybe a little volatile, not knowing who's going to be the starter for the majority of the season. Cool. Yeah, I mean. Yeah, RJ, represent. Right.

I'm not doubting Malik Nabors. I'm doubting his ability to overcome Daniel Jones. Yeah. Well, I, in the, in the article that's going in the magazine, I,

I wrote Odell Beckham, Calvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, AJ Brown, Jalen Waddle have had productive rookie seasons with iffy quarterback play neighbors, quarterback play, maybe worse than all of them,

but his talent is undeniable and he should dominate targets for the giants. All right. Uh, that is a bold prediction show and, or, you know, you'll, I think you'll see them on the website at some point.

They'll be in the magazine. We are going to hop out of here and get ready for our mailbag in 30 minutes. Me, Jamie and Dan on an FFT mailbag. We've got some Apple podcast questions in there. Please feel free to leave your reviews, but send your emails now to fantasy football at CBS. I that's the letter., cbsi.com.

Have a good one, everybody. Talk to you soon.