Fantasy Football Today - BONUS: How to Win DFS! (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 28, 2019

Are you ready to play more Fantasy Football? Whether you're a DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) veteran or newcomer, you will love what our SportsLine expert Mike McClure has to say. Mike has been playing DFS for years and will tell you which types of contests to play, how to approach tournaments vs. cash games, what to look for when setting a lineup and so much more. It's a very fun way to play Fantasy Football and as an added bonus it's a way to win some money. Sign up for SportsLine at SportsLine.com/join and use the promo code TROPHY. You'll get your first month for just $1! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, quick update for everybody. If you were expecting to hear from Chris Harris on today's show, I'm actually going to save that episode for Saturday and make it a standalone 30-minute episode, and you'll hear that on Saturday. I'll get that out nice and early for your weekend. But right now, it's all DFS. Here's Mike McClure.

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Week one is approaching.

It is time to talk a little DFS. Not just week one, we're going to set you up, just generally speaking. How do you approach your DFS, your Daily Fantasy Sports lineups? Welcome to a bonus episode of Fantasy Football Today. I am Adam Azer. I am joined by Mike McClure. Mike is a DFS veteran. This guy does so much Daily Fantasy.

It is crazy. How many week one lineups do you anticipate having across different platforms? Week one, I should end up with at least 25, but anywhere between 25 and 75 different lineups, which will be probably 200 to 300 total entries, but probably around 50 unique lineups. Okay, but you'll play some of them multiple times. Correct. So if there's something I put in like a tournament that pays a million to first,

I'll also drop it in like the $4 tournament and the $9 tournament and things like that. All right. Yeah. See why people were asking why, why would I do that? Well,

Mike's going to tell you, we're going to give you a little bit of a primer. You've got some money to spend. You want to put it, you don't know how to do it. You don't know what there is. I play one tournament. Do I play a lot?

Do I play the millionaire one? Do I play the $4 tournament? We're going to tell you. Do't know what to do. Do I play one tournament? Do I play a lot? Do I play the millionaire one? Do I play the $4 tournament? We're going to tell you. Do I play head-to-head? Do I play 50-50? Do I play Patrick Mahomes in week one? He's the most expensive quarterback. You don't play Patrick Mahomes in week what?

Patrick Mahomes, do you? I mean, I'm going to have some Patrick Mahomes, but he certainly won't be the quarterback in optimal lineups when you are optimizing off of median projections. There's going to be additional value out there, but I will definitely have a Patrick Mahomes lineup or two in tournaments. Okay, and when you hear Mike's dog bark, it means no. So, like, I say Mahomes, he barks.

That means, you know, he might have a bad game. So just keep that in mind. It'll be a fun little game within the game here on the show. And, yeah, let's talk DFS. Okay, so Mike, your background. Tell us all about yourself. You're working for Sportsline. The promo code is HUDDLE.

Oh, no, the promo code is TROPHY. It's TROPHY. To get your first month for a dollar, go to sportsline.com slash join and use the code TROPHY. It is an incredible value, even at full price, which is $9.99 a month for gambling advice, for DFS advice, etc.

But the promo code, try it just for a buck. It's trophy. Mike, tell us about yourself. Yeah, I've been playing daily fantasy sports. I started playing professionally in 2012.

So I've been grinding it for several years now, playing at a pretty high volume all the way throughout. Focused initially in sports like NFL, of course, because it's the biggest, but also sports like Major League Baseball, NHL hockey. But NFL is the best opportunity to make money because there's just a lot of money out there in the ecosystem for NFL. But I've been grinding hardcore professionally here for seven years now.

All right. So let's say I have $100 and I want to play some DFS. I want to remind everyone that FanDuel is a sponsor. And you can go to FanDuel.com slash FFT if you've never played before. And, okay, first of all, Mike's a professional DFS player. I am not. And I will tell you that I love, love daily fantasy football. Love it. It's really fun. By the end of the week, when I've done all my research and I know how I feel about all of my matchups, making a lineup to me is really easy because I just,

I know how I feel about every player. If I did it at the beginning of the week, yeah, I could make a lineup pretty easily. Sure. But I don't know that I'd be as confident in it as I am at the end of the week. So if you listen to our podcast and you listen to our starter sit episodes, you probably are going to feel pretty good about who to play, who are the sleepers, who are the cheap guys that I can, you know, make a lot of money on. But I love it. So go to FanDuel.com slash FFT and sign up and get a $5 bonus on your first deposit. Now, that being said, we're not only going to talk about Fanduel today. There are other places to play. But if I have $100 and I want to play some DFS, what would you tell me?

The first thing I would tell you to do is if you're just joining the site or you haven't played and hit the threshold to where you're no longer eligible for beginner games, you need to be in the beginner games. Max those out until you can no longer play them. It's usually around 50 contests, but it does depend on the site. So if you haven't played in that many contests yet, make sure you're looking for beginner only games, which means you're going to be playing against other new users as well. Hopefully those new users don't have access to cool things like this podcast or Sportsline, and that should give you a really nice edge to try and build that $100 that you have into a nice bankroll when you kind of graduate up to some of those other contests, but definitely focus on those beginner contests. And you're

going to be giving out on Sportsline. Are you going to be giving out lineups every week? Every week. We'll have my optimal lineups. We'll also have the player pools. We'll have my player projections on the site for the first time this year as well. That'll be for every main slate, which is every Sunday. But we'll also have showdown lineups on Thursdays, Sunday night football, and Monday night football. Okay, so try to get into the beginner-only leagues. Now, how do you spread your money out?

Which contests should we be looking to enter? I think you're going to need a— I mean, it's all going to depend on your risk tolerance, for one. So I think that the most basic strategy, though, I think that you should play enough cash games. And what I mean by that is like a head-to-head or a 50-50 type game. You should play enough of those to where you can cover the entry fee for the tournaments that you're joining. So basically, as long as you can win enough to break even if you

don't cash your tournament, basically that's going to allow you to survive for the weeks that you are cashing the tournaments. That's going to be the strategy that's going to be the most fun for users. It's going to be the most sustainable long term while still giving you the upside of winning large sums of money. I want to make sure we have the terminology down basically. Cash games 50-50. Can you give us the glossary real quick? Yeah. So cash game, whenever I refer to a cash game, whether it be here, Twitter on sports line, uh, or anything that you're going to find me there, what's going to be

a cash game is going to be a head to head contest, which is you and another user. It's also going to be the 50, 50 contest, or sometimes referred to as double up contests and the double up contest truly pay half the field where the others do not. Or they do double your money, which ends up paying around 45 percent of the entries instead of 50 percent. But those are all falling into the cash game umbrella. You also have contests called like three man and five man contests. So it's just three people play one winner take all game.

We'll focus. I focus a lot on three mans personally when i'm playing cash games um so that's what we mean by cash games tournaments would be large prize pools that you see basically you go to fandle right now click on the nfl tab what you're going to be shown first is all of the featured tournaments on the site right bigger payouts uh I play mostly cash games because I'm not a big risk taker, but I'm kind of a pansy. But I will play a tournament or so every week, but I like the cash games, the 50-50s. So that's where either half the contest, it's 100 people,

let's say, 50 of them, the top 50 win their money back essentially, or like 45% of them just win, you know, double up their money. So it's nice and safe. I play like a $5 contest or whatever. I really just play for fun. But if you want to play to make some money, you can certainly do that as well. So those are some of the different things head to head. You can play like, like Mike was saying against one other person. I never played the three-person contest. Those are ones you really like, Mike? The three-man leagues are ones that I really like, and I'll tell you why here. So say you go to the lobby, right?

There's going to be a large volume of, there's going to be a couple players that are going to have a lot of volume out there. So you're likely going to end up, unless you're able to get lucky, you're essentially going to play one really good player, most likely, when you join the head-to-head lobby if you're not to get lucky. You're essentially going to play one really good player, most likely, when you join the head-to-head lobby if you're not in beginner games.

So what I recommend doing is just taking that a step further into the three-man because it's likely the same person. And that person is so good that you're likely, in theory, they're so good, you're likely, if you beat them, you're likely going to win the three-man as well. But what you're doing is you're giving yourself more upside as you're reducing the actual win rate you need to be profitable, or at least break even on that long term, when it's sitting against another good player. Mike, sometimes you hear about guaranteed contests. What does that mean?

So guaranteed contest is one that's going to run no matter how many people join. So, some situations you'll capitalize on what we call overlay, and that's if not enough people meet the quota to join when you see how full a contest is on the site. And if that happens, there's additional money in the tournament that is going to be put up by FanDuel, for example. But what guaranteed means is simply the contest will run no matter if one person joins it or 100,000 people join it. And that's to your advantage? Do you look for these? I mean, it's to your advantage if you can find overlay. It's rare, but it does happen where you find overlay where there's going to be an excess of $20,000 in a contest that the site is simply going to eat out on that.

But it's like I think that you're never going to see that on like a main slate. You're likely going to see that on like a Sunday night football slate or a Thursday night football slate. You're going to be hunting for that, you know, with two to three minutes left before a contest locks. Sometimes they have auto-generated contests that'll pop you in the lineup based on the demand that they're seeing. And sometimes their calculations just simply won't be correct and you can get overlay, but it's typically going to be one of those last three to five minute situations. All right. So I'm going to ask you a few questions, then we're going to start getting into, you know, making rosters and, and well, this will all be part of it, but

you mentioned playing in as many beginner-only games as you can. But let's say I'm out of that and I'm still a casual DFS player. I'm worried about playing against people like Mike McClure. How do I avoid that? So your next best bet at that point is going to be look for single entry tournaments. So if you go to tournaments that are under the guaranteed tournaments in the FanDuel lobby. You're going to see in parentheses, you'll see single entry next to that. And what that means is only one entry per user. So rather than like the tournament that pays a million dollars to first, you can enter 150 times. But if you only

want to play one lineup, you're going to look for the single entry contest. And the good news there is you know that because there's only one entry, it's typically going to be a median type lineup, like an optimal lineup that someone's going to be throwing in there. So you can use that information to your advantage as you should really be able to accurately project the ownership levels in those single entry tournaments because you're not going to have a bunch of people entering multiple times. Yeah, talk to me about the ownership levels. And are you playing Patrick Mahomes in week one in some of your leagues because you just think nobody's going to be playing him and you'll take advantage of that and hope he has a big game? It comes down to that a little bit. But the real reason why I would be playing Patrick Mahomes is if I wanted exposure to say Travis Kelsey as they're obviously their performances are highly correlated so I'd likely be if I want exposure to Travis

Kelsey or to Tyree Kill I would likely have one of those lineups to really capitalize on the upside so my the point of that is if Travis Kelsey scores three touchdowns right has a huge game scores three touchdowns you may not need Patrick Mahomes to win your cash game, your 50-50, your head-to-head. But if you're going to want to win a million dollars to first place, if Travis Kelsey has three touchdowns, that means Patrick Mahomes has at least three touchdowns and likely has a huge day. So, you know, when we build optimal lineups, we are operating under the median assumption, which is Travis Kelsey scores one touchdown, eight catches, 95 yards, right? But the scenario in which he has that big game, I want to capitalize on it. So one of my lineups is going to have Patrick Mahomes for that reason.

So in that regard, how important is stacking, getting two or more players? What is stacking, I guess? Is it three or more players on the same team? Yeah, the stacking, or as I like to call it in football, either handcuffing or making correlated plays is absolutely critical, especially in tournaments. In cash games, not so much. Again, you're just looking for a really high floor, so you're looking for consistency. Players are going to have a very high floor in their performance. But in terms of winning tournaments, you're almost always stacking your quarterback with at least one of the receivers, likely two of them in tournaments, and quarterback tight end. You do have situations where you're stacking

quarterback running back as well, especially when you get to a team like the Carolina Panthers where you've got Newton and then McCaffrey who catches so many passes out of the backfield. New Orleans is a good example with Alvin Kamara there. Yeah, you're almost always going to be stacking when it comes to playing tournaments. Okay, I like that.

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with iGaming Ontario. All right, so I think I know what to do if I just want to casually play. I'm looking for beginner-only games. I'm looking for single-entry tournaments. Let's say I want to win big. I think you've already touched on this a little bit. You say you want to play enough cash games

to sort of make up for your entry fees into tournaments. But if I'm looking to win a million dollars and retire, find someone else to host this damn podcast, what am I going to do? Yeah, you're going to have to start making really smart decisions when it comes to making correlated plays. We briefly just touched on that with the stacking, but you're going to take it a step further. So say I wanted to play Ezekiel Elliott, right? If he was playing for sure, you play, you want to play a start running back because the team is projected to win. He's going to get fed the ball late in the game. And he's just a very good player, which is why they're winning. So what you're going to do next is you're

going to look at the opponent, right? If the Cowboys are winning and Zeke is playing well, that means you're almost definitely disregarding the running back on the opposing team because that team is trailing so you should see an increased market share and increased targets for some of the receivers likely wide receiver two because right receiver one is typically struggling in a game that the team is struggling in so you're going to look to target someone on the opposing side of the ball. And where it gets interesting and where you're going to want to target that is you might have another handcuff combo being a quarterback and a wide receiver that projects in terms of medium projections. It might project slightly higher in your projection model, but you will still have to go in and manually enter the opposing team because they're

so much more correlated because if Zeke plays well and you're capitalizing on him playing well you're going to have that increase in the production on the other side or I shouldn't say production you're going to have the increase in the opportunity on the other side so you should be looking to make correlated plays that way as you really start to build additional lineups. That is interesting. But in this scenario, let's say it is Zeke in week one against the Giants. You're not going to Eli Manning and Evan Ingram, are you? Or like Cody Latimer.

It's hard to even know who their number two wide receiver is because it's all junk behind Sterling Shepard. And are you fading Saquon Barkley in that case? But he's so involved in the passing game too. So yeah, so take this scenario a step further. And if you were big on Zeke and the Cowboys should win week one, if Zeke's there, what do you do in turn? Yeah, so you are going to have to listen to each situation independently

because you do have an elite pass catching and running running back with Saquon Barkley there. Same story with a guy like Christian McCaffrey. You're always going to want to target them when the team is trailing. So in this situation, I probably am not taking Eli Manning. I'm probably taking Saquon and or potentially Evan Ingram. But likely in this spot, it would just be Saquon Barkley. Could you make a winning lineup, do you think confidently with both Zeke and Saquon Barkley knowing you're paying that much at running back? In week one, yes. And likely in most weeks of the season. So in week one, there's more than enough value at receiver that you can get it done. There's value at quarterback. So like what you would end up doing there probably is if you're paying up for those two, you're likely going to pay down at quarterback, which is going to leave you with probably Carson Wentz or someone like Kyler Murray making his debut. So if you're going to do that, I would probably play Kyler Murray, handcuff him with Christian

Kirk and build out the rest of the roster with some of the median type plays, high floor plays that we like. Um, but that, that's the way that I would kind of build that roster. Let's talk about ownership percentage and why it's so important. So tell me, first of all, why is it so valuable to, to know or to guess the ownership percentages of players? It's very valuable to know and understand it just because you know what the field is going to do. Like if, say, for example, we wanted to play Ezekiel Elliott and he's 32% owned. If Zeke has a good game, there's still 32% of the field that is essentially tied with you at that point. You're not gaining much on the field.

You're gaining over some of the field, but just playing Zeke alone is not good enough to get you to cash no matter what kind of game Zeke is having. Now, where it becomes interesting is if you look at my projections on Sportsline and I'll have Zeke, say, projected for 20 fantasy points and 32% ownership. And I might have Christian McCaffrey projected for 18.5 points, but only 12% ownership. And you'd have to understand and know that those are median projections and it's the, every player will have a floor and a ceiling and you're actually getting significantly better value on McCaffrey because significantly fewer people are playing him than Zeke. Even though it says Zeke has a higher fantasy point projection, you're getting better odds essentially to take him. So when you look at it and think of it, it might even be something that I presented that way on Sportsline

going forward. But basically you need to think of it in terms of what odds am I getting to select this player versus this player because of the projected ownership. Is there any part of you, though, that says, oh, man, so many people own this player and he's going to be great. If I don't have him, I'm falling way behind. Absolutely. That happens every week. So the situation where you almost definitely want to play that obvious chalk value play, it's going to be a running back. Right. Right. So it's going to be something like last year.

Le'Veon Bell's out. James Conner steps in. The price is to the point where you just play him. You have to play him. Right. Right. It's going to be situations like that that you're going to want to play. Situations where you're going to want to like really probably look at fading is going to be when you have like a mid-tier wide receiver that's 4k and everyone's going to play that mid-tier wide receiver because the game total is 55 that week that is a situation that is way more fadable than a running back who the scoring distribution on running back is just significantly more reliable than uh reliable than a mid-tier wide receiver that's getting five targets a game. Okay. So, yeah, I mean, it's interesting.

And I feel like Chris Carson's going to have a big ownership percentage in week one. I'm kind of looking. He's $6,600. That's not super expensive. The guys behind him are Ingram, Eckler, Coleman, Miles Sanders, Kenyon Drake. It starts to get a little bit dicier. And Carson's got what seems like a great matchup.

I mean, last year it was arguably the best matchup. Cincinnati, it's a home game. Do you feel like Chris Carson's going to be, I'm looking at FanDuel pricing, highly owned? And would that deter you or encourage you to start him? I don't think he's going to be super highly owned in this spot. I think that there are a couple other running backs just right in that tier above him that are going to be way more popular. So if you're someone that likes Chris Carson, I think that you should absolutely play him because I don't anticipate him being the chalk at this point in week one.

Okay, then I'm going to play him. Yeah, definitely. If you like Chris Carson, I would absolutely play him. Okay. I think that where the chalk is going to be at that point is probably going to be Dalvin Cook, Derek Henry range. 6,800 on Henry, 7,400 on Dalvin Cook. I think that those are going to end up being popular choices as well as maybe Kerryon Johnson at 7,000. So I get Dalvin Cook. I think that those are going to end up being popular choices as well as maybe carry on Johnson at 7,000. So I get Dalvin Cook.

He's got Atlanta, and they hopefully will have a much better run defense than they did last year. But tell me why Derek Henry, who hasn't played this preseason, who all of our experts rank behind Chris Carson in drafts, who has a much tougher matchup than Chris Carson, and who's completely uninvolved in the passing game, whereas Carson will be somewhat involved, it seems. Tell me why Derrick Henry, in a game they're probably going to lose at Cleveland, wouldn't be the most obvious fate. I can't believe he's more expensive than Chris

Carson. I personally think he would be the obvious fade. I'm not going to play him just because I think people are going to play him. I think that Derrick Henry carries a little bit of name value versus Carson here in this spot. And week one, you typically see a lot of that kind of stuff there. I personally will not be playing Derrick Henry. I just think people will see the name at 6,800, and you will see people use Derrick Henry. I just think people will see the name at 6,800 and you will see people use Derrick Henry in week one. How many players on your roster should be sort of chalky, you know, not like, you know, flyers. And how many should be guys that you think are going to

be very low owned, that they're your guys, you're taking a shot on them? Yeah, so at that point, it's going to be, it really depends on the format, you know, are you playing a cash game? Are you playing a tournament? What's your real objective is, is because the answer does vary based on each format, but as a general rule, you're, it's fine to play four to five players that are highly owned or what you would consider chalk. Um, as long as you have the one to two very low on players. Uh, so in tournaments, like my favorite strategy is basically, I'm going to find the low on quarterback and handcuff them with the receiver that he's most highly correlated with that, that no one's really going to play. And then I'm, I'm going to pay up.

I'm going to get Christian McCaffrey. I'm going to get Ezekiel. I'm going to get another top tier wide receiver. Uh, and then I then I'm basically going to find the lower, cheaper quarterback that has maybe some rushing yard upside as that gives you a very high floor. And then I'm going to pair them with a value play at wide receiver or tight end. That's typically what I will end up doing in tournaments. And that gives you enough differentiation to really stand out while still capitalizing on the days that Christian McCaffrey

and Zeke, you know, both score two touchdowns. What is your defense, your DST strategy? It's usually, you know, for me, it's actually the first thing I, I, I select, I don't know why I like to get it out of the way and figure out how much money I have, um, left. Yeah, it's defense and special teams is really fascinating. So I honestly, it's very close to a random number generator because of the the scoring upside with return touchdowns and stuff like that. I don't spend a lot of time on defense. I am in the camp that defense doesn't really matter much in daily fantasy. It is very difficult to project the defensive scores. So typically, I'm going to be someone that's going to pay down at defense. But where it really matters the most is projected ownership, right? So if we have projected ownership data that like,

there's just an obvious situation, it used to be anytime the bills played, right, we would pick on the bills, we would pick a defense against them, and they would be 30 to 40 percent out that is something that you typically want to avoid simply because you can get such a better payoff better odds to select literally any other defense because they all have very similar probability of scoring a defensive touchdown um so you get a better you a better payoff by selecting and fading the public when it comes to that defense. But typically for me, it's going to be paying down. So week one, the Miami Dolphins are a prime candidate for me

to be my defense in DFS. The Dolphins against the Ravens? Dolphins against the Ravens at home. Pace of play for the Ravens is obviously a little slower as they do try to grind it out and run the ball a little more. The Dolphins against the Ravens at home. Pace of play for the Ravens is obviously a little slower as they do try to grind it out and run the ball a little more. The Dolphins are at home at that price point. Yeah, they will be someone that I'm way more interested in. Just knowing week one, if you play the Dolphins,

I can easily get Christian McCaffrey in there. I can get Mahomes if I wanted. I can get whatever studs I really want. You can jam three of them in there if you play the miami dolphins interesting interesting because they're such a bad defense you know yeah i mean they're not a great defense um it's more on the you know they're playing at home it's the price point you know they're factored in there i believe they're three thousand dollars on fan duel cheaper on other sites. They're definitely at the bottom there. Okay.

So I am just about done making a FanDuel lineup on the fly, just for fun. But give me some last-minute tips. Do you feel like you have to have at least one stud wide receiver, at least one stud running back? How do you approach tight end? Whatever it is, give me something. Give me about 30 seconds to finish out my roster, I guess. Yeah, so I like to pay up at tight end whatever it is give me something give me give me about 30 seconds to finish out my roster i guess yeah so i like to pay up at uh at a tight end for sure if you're going balanced um it's either pay all the way up at tight end or pay all the way down i don't like to get lost in the mid

range there i think that the so that's kind of my strategy um but the biggest thing is just making sure the lineup is correlated um one correlation you could make also, if you're not stacking on the other side, so say you have two running backs, one of the running backs you play might be correlated with the defense. You might stack up running back and team defense. Typically, again, that correlation is the team is ahead, they're winning, they're running the clock, which is preventing the other team from scoring. Or the other team has turned the ball over, putting that running back in good field position. So that example doesn't work very well with the Dolphins. But as a general rule, if you could stack and pair up

one of your running backs and defenses together, that's going to give you a very correlated lineup. Okay, well, I think I need to change my lineup. I need a little bit more money. You always do. Yeah, yeah. I'm going with Cam, Carson, McCaffrey, Phelan, Marvin Jones, and Curtis Samuel,

and George Kittle. So I got the Panthers with Cam, McCaffrey, and Curtis Samuel. I got Kittle at Tampa Bay. Marvin Jones at Arizona. Adam Thielen, home against Atlanta. And Chris Carson, you know I like. I might have to drop down on my DST. I got the Eagles facing the Cowboys.

Let's free up some money. I'll free up some money. I'm not going to do this now. But I got a flex and a DST left. All right, I'm going to buy into Mike McClure. I'm going to go a little bit lower on the DST. And we'll figure it out after that. But that's the core of my team. And yeah, obviously, this is subject to change.

And we'll give you some DFS advice on the show leading up to week one. Mike, thank you for your tips. And we hope to hear from you again. Thanks so much for having me. Make sure you go on Sportsline.com and sign up and use the promo code TROPHY to get your first month for only a dollar. And you can see just how great it is. And it's only $9.99 after that. And that is really such a bargain for a money-making website like Sportsline. That's Mike McClure. I'm Adam Azer.

Thanks for listening. We'll have a fresh episode for you on Thursday morning.