Fantasy Football Today - BONUS: Melvin Gordon is Back! Trade Ekeler Immediately? (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: September 26, 2019

We cover all of the angles as Melvin Gordon is expected to report on Thursday. Is he still a Top 5 overall player? Will Austin Ekeler have value going forward? How does this impact Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen and Justin Jackson? We'll have more analysis on the regular Thursday show, but for now enjoy this bonus pod! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Bonus podcast. We don't even have time for intro music right now. Welcome to Fantasy Football today. We'll get you in and out with some quick reaction to Melvin Gordon's impending return. I'm Adam Azer.

What's up, Jamie? What a crazy night, huh? It's a crazy night. Look, we got good news for some, bad news for others. Just depends on what side of the Melvin Gordon-Austin Eckler scenario you're on right now. Hopefully you have both. I found out tonight that I went to make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, Jamie, and I bought raspberry jam instead of strawberry,

and I thought that was going to be the craziest thing that happened all night. Would you believe that? That's crazy, buddy. You have a wild, crazy life. Tough break. That's a terrible purchase. But Melvin Gordon is back. So a guy that we were considering with the fifth overall pick, basically in any format, maybe even earlier, who knows? What do you think? Is he that player when he comes back, which will not be week four, by the way? I don't think he'll be that player, but I think

he'll still be very good. You know, he'll still be somebody that you're going to start. He'll still be somebody that has the potential, I think, after a few weeks of getting his football legs under him, will have the chance to be a top 20 overall player. Maybe not top five, maybe not first round, but very, very good. If you want to just base this up in comparison, the narrative for the Cowboys coming into week three was

full workload for Zeke. It was three weeks until they felt comfortable with him being ready to go, being his same type of guy. Now, they gave him more work in week two than they did in week three. Yeah, they did. Right, they lied. They didn't really take it slow with Elliott outside of a one-game situation. But they also didn't have the luxury of the way Austin Eckler was playing

on their own team, a guy like that. So the Chargers have a little bit of a luxury to sort of wait a little bit, although being one and two, most likely two and2 after pummeling the Dolphins, as most people expect they will, they'll want to get him going for that division game against Denver, I'm sure, in Week 5. Yeah, how much does the schedule scare you, if at all? Because it's a shame we won't have Melvin Gordon for this game.

But you go ahead and you look at the schedule after Miami in week four. You're looking at Denver in week five. Pittsburgh week six. I feel like they've been pretty good against the run. Not so far. No, they were good against Sonny Michel. Week two, they lost to Seattle. They were good on a per carry basis against Chris Carson, I believe.

And last week with San Francisco, they were not good. They are in terms of fantasy points allowed to running back, 29. Yeah. Yes. At this point, I look more at yards per carry than fantasy points. But, you know, if you have a bad defense. You? Yards per carry? I've never done that much. If you have a bad defense, you're going to give up points.

You're going to give up touchdowns and whatnot. At Tennessee, at Chicago, Green Bay, it gets easier. Oh, no, Jacksonville, Minnesota in the second. You know, overall, does it matter? Does it matter with Melvin Gordon? Why am I even asking this? He's Melvin freaking Gordon, right? Yeah, I mean, you know, the Denver game,

which is the first one that he'll be eligible to play, we'll see what Derek Wolf's status is. So that's a key player that their run defense is missing. I don't know what the status is of Akeem Hicks, who left the Monday night game for the Bears. You know what he's going to be if he's hurt. I know it's a few weeks away, but you're seeing some teams that are dealing with injuries right now. So it's hard to fully judge what these are going to be a few weeks or even down the road. All right. So crunching some numbers, right? Looking at things. Let's just set the picture

here. Melvin Gordon last year was the number six running back in non-PPR, number eight in PPR. He missed four games. He averaged five yards per carry. When he came back from his second injury, he missed the game mid-season against Tennessee and London. When he came back from his second injury, he wasn't as good and he wasn't used as much. He didn't really seem fully healthy with the knee. His first nine games before that injury, though, he was on pace for 254 carries. That's only about 16 a game for him. 254 carries, 1,300 yards, 12

rushing touchdowns, plus 75 catches, 800 yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns. So I think first question is what is your expectation for the split with Gordon and Eckler? And then the second thing is, you really have to look at the receiving totals. I think he can get those 16 carries a game. What about the receiving totals? What do you think

on that front? Before we go there, I would say that if you are not in dire need of melvin gordon you should try and trade him now because his value may be as high as it's going to be i don't say that to be factual i say that just from the standpoint of if they continue to use eckler maybe more so than they did when both were together prior to the holdout and like you said the numbers post injury i wonder if know, there's also the fear. Our buddy, Dr. David Chow, when I talked to him about this in the offseason, he said that between Zeke or Gordon, this was before Zeke came back, there's the risk of soft tissue injury because they haven't been practicing at the same level. And so if they rush Gordon back in there quicker than we think, there's that injury potential in this scenario.

So if you can flip him now while people are excited that he's coming back and get something top 20 player in return, it might not be a bad idea to explore those options. Would you take Nick Chubb? Yes. Even with Kareem Hunt coming back second half? Yeah. Okay. I mean, they both could Hunt coming back second half. Yeah. Okay. I mean, they both could be in timeshares.

Right. So what do you think the timeshare will be? I think probably total touches 60-40, carries 70-30. So that's the interesting thing. I posted this Twitter poll. We'll talk more about it. We're only going to do 10 minutes tonight. We'll talk more about it tomorrow, obviously.

Melvin Gordon is on his way back. Beginning with Gordon's first game of the season, is Austin Eckler still going to be worth starting? Yes, only if you're desperate, or nope. So far, 2,400 votes. Yes has 51%. Only if you're desperate is 34%. And nope has 15%.

If it's anything like last year, the answer's nope. He was getting... That's non-PPR. I would say no. It's kind of a myth. He had, in the games that Melvin Gordon was healthy, if you take out the Arizona game when Gordon got hurt, Eckler had 10 catches in that

game. I did not have time to look when the catches came, but if you just take that game out, in the games that Gordon was healthy last year, he had 16 catches, Austin Eckler. He was so lucky. He scored some early touchdowns. He was getting... No Hunter Henry, though, and last year they had Antonio Gates. Alright, fine. But Henry will be back.

He was getting about 8 touches, 10 touches. I looked at all his touches in every game with a healthy Melvin Gordon. To me, the answer would be no. He had 10, 14, 7, 10, 7, 7, 8 in the regular season. Those were his touches. Then 15 and 3 in two postseason games.

I think it's a different scenario, though. Okay. All right. That's what I was saying. Based on last year, the answer is no. So when people respond to this Twitter poll and 51% say yes, Eckler's still going to be worth starting, I think they're expecting a bigger role than what he had last year,

and it sounds like you might be as well. I don't think much bigger. I was having the conversation with Chris Towers before this happened when the report came out Wednesday morning. He asked me what do I think his workload is going to be, and I said probably the first couple of games until Gordon gets his feet under him, somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 to 15 total touches for Eckler.

So seven to 8 carry. You mean when Gordon's back, not the Miami game? While Gordon is playing until he's back to game shape. I think it's probably on a high level, high end, 12 to 15 touches for Eckler. Then it goes down to 10 to 12, and then I think it eventually settles on 8 to 10. So when that happens, I don't know. But the way that I told Chris how I would kind of feel about Eckler is kind of the same way I feel about Chris Thompson right now.

Interesting. In that PPR, you can start him. Non-PPR, at best, a flex. But it's going to be matchup dependent. But that's the thing. Last year, Gordon was so valuable because, one, he's really good, but, two, he was a monster in the passing game. He had seven receiving touchdowns, and he was on pace for like 70 catches.

So if you think that about Eckler, that he could be Chris Thompson, because what I'm telling you is that last year he definitely was not. He was not a pass catcher with Gordon. If you think he's going to be, then you should, then everybody should. You are, you know, saying top 20 player for Gordon, not top five. Everybody should be downgrading Gordon a little bit because he was on pace for 75 catches, 796 receiving yards, and seven receiving touchdowns.

If that's not there, then yeah, you might be looking at a second round type of player instead of a first round player. And again, I'm speculating. I don't know what they're going to do. I think it's from talking to, I know you got your water there, Pete Prisco, who spent some time with the Chargers. And this was during the Melvin Gordon holdout. And they were raving about Austin Eckler to him, you know, in private conversations, different guys. And so I think from the standpoint of what makes the most sense for their team is to not necessarily take Austin Eckler off the field for significant stretches. So I think both guys could still have very good value.

But yes, I think Melvin Gordon is closer to a top 20 player. He still should be the one working at the goal line. He still should be the one getting the ball between the tackles. We'll find out if it's what Ben Gretsch likes to to talk about the valuable touches. Is it going to be between the twenties or is it going to be in the passing game still and in the red zone? And so that's what remains to be seen. I think what we said in the preseason, when we didn't know when Gordon was going to report was that if you take Eckler in the sixth round, he'll still have standalone value. And yes, the numbers necessarily from a touch standpoint weren't what you would hope for last year, at least what you're hoping for this year. But he also was

extremely efficient. And I know Heath talks about this a lot. He scored touchdowns on big plays, and he's an explosive player. And maybe this helps him get back to that a little bit. Remember what he was in week one? And maybe he's starting to wear down a little bit because he's not used to all this work? Yeah, I would trade him for any starter. You know, so I don't know what you could get for Eckler right now. Because I'm not. If you were going to trade him, you'd trade him right now because somebody would want him for the Miami game, and then you just sort of play it out the rest of the way.

I'll tell you who I think would be a good one, and I feel like people would think this is too low for Eckler. So, first of all, I'd try to get better than this. But I think Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman's owner needs Eckler. So first of all, I try to get better than this, but I think Tevin Coleman. Like, Tevin Coleman's owner needs Eckler right now. Oh, that to me I would do in a second. If you can't get anything, if nobody's

willing to give you a good player for Eckler because they think he's going to be trash, the Tevin Coleman owner is desperate right now. He's hurt and on a buy. You got Eckler for week four. He could win you this week. I think once Gordon gets back, Tevin Coleman will be better than Eckler.

Do you agree? Potentially. It just depends on what Raheem Mostert's going to be getting in the way. So you don't think that's enough then? I would want more too, but I feel like if you're playing savvy managers, you won't get more.

To your point, three weeks from now, Coleman should be better in theory. That's what I'm saying, yeah. By the way, Melvin Gordon was third on the team last year. He missed four games, and he was third on the team in red zone targets. Keenan Allen had 15, Mike Williams had 14, and Melvin Gordon had 13. So in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line, he may have— No, he was one behind Mike Williams had 14, and Melvin Gordon had 13. So in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line, he may have, no, he was one behind Mike Williams. That was a huge thing for Melvin Gordon,

and we'll just have to see what happens. But you do make a good point about they do need Eckler more in the passing game this year than ever before. We are going to wrap it up. Phillip Rivers currently is on pace for 619 pass attempts. That would be his most in four seasons. It would be the second most of his career. Last season

he threw 508 pass attempts. Way down. Is Philip Rivers hurt by this? Is Keenan Allen hurt by this? I don't think so. Again, with the receiving core in terms of Allen not having the complementary pieces that they had last year, it's a different team. And I think they're using Allen in a little bit of a different way, especially in the red zone, at least from what I can tell.

And Rivers, I think this is going to help him be a little bit more efficient. He's had two very good games, one poor one. And it was the one on the road. So we'll see. He's not going to play poorly this week against Miami. But it's another weapon. You know, and the offensive line, I think, is a little bit worse from what it was a year ago, just some injuries that they're dealing with.

So I think if Rivers has been your starter, you could still feel comfortable using him as the main guy. Jamie, thank you very much. We will discuss this more on the Thursday show. This is fun. This was good. This was a good exercise. I had to do all this number crunching.

I feel good about it now. Hopefully you all feel a little bit better about it now. Go trade Austin Eckler. Go get someone better than Tevin Coleman if you can. I think you might be able to in some leagues. Let us know. All right, that's Jamie Isenberg. I'm Adam Azer.

Go put pants on, please. I have shorts on. It's fine, I swear. Debatable. Oh, by the way, drop Justin Jackson or wait a week? Wait a week. He can still be at Flex this week if you need him. Oh, yeah.

Tony Pollard just went for 100 and touched down Garberstein. Exactly. Okay, that's it. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Bye.