Fantasy Football Today - Bounceback Candidates! (02/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 1, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts It was a disappointing season for Patrick Mahomes and Jonathan Taylor, but we think they are ready to bounce back in 2024. We start with those two (2:10) and give some more big names including Ja'Marr Chase. Also, what exactly does "bouncing back" mean? Does Mahomes have to finish as a Top 3 QB in 2024 to qualify? ... News and notes (21:30) on new head coaches and a Russell Wilson rumor. Then more bounce back candidates (25:10) including Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk. Does Josh Jacobs qualify (29:30)? ... We discuss the Dolphins passing game (43:50) and older wide receivers (47:10) like Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams. How many of them will bounce back in 2024? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Bounce back candidates coming off a disappointing 2023 season who's going to turn it around in 2024 adam azar me am i bounced back at did i have a bad year i don't know adam azar with heath cummings and jamie eisenberg here on thursday morning and we are gonna tell you i guess good draft values oh alex what is this heath did did you open it? What do you mean, Alex? We're not going anywhere. Oh, Heath put up a comment. 20 seconds in?

That's a record. Am I that boring that you had to put up a comment already? I was going to say, that's one of your best scripted intros ever. Yeah, not scripted at all. But Alex says, I'm going to miss these pods in the offseason. Well, first of all, Alex, we're in the offseason. Well, technically we're not. We're not in the offseason at all. We're in the postseason.

We're in the postseason. We're in the offseason. This is the offseason. This is your 11.30 in the morning is the afternoon argument, but this is definitely the postseason. About that, 11.30. My birthday is June 19th.

What season Heath? Do you think my birthday is in a spring? You think I have a spring birthday? 100%. I definitely have a summer birthday. I know it's spring technically, but everything about June 19th is summary. Everything.

The weather, the way you make that argument is if you were still in school, if you were, if you were in school and that was your summer break, then I think it would help. But it's definitely spring by the calendar. Nobody's in school on June 9th. There are very few people. Oh, actually, all my kids are.

But when I was growing up in Florida, we were never in school on June 9th. And then your birthday was in summer. Memorial Day is the start of summer. Everybody knows that. All right. Heath said before the show started that there are the obvious ones of the bounce back candidates, the obvious ones.

And I was like, I don't know. Who's he talking about? So who are some of the obvious ones that we all should have on our bounce back lists? I think Patrick Mahomes is the most obvious bounce back candidate. I think almost, maybe not everyone,

but almost everyone will expect him to, at the very least, be closer to what he was before this year than he was this year. People will expect that his wide receivers will not lead the NFL in drops. And I think it's reasonable to expect the Chiefs defense will probably not be the second best defense in the NFL. They're going to lose a couple of guys off that defense most likely this offseason. So there may be a little more need to pass. So Patrick Mahomes is the most obvious, and I'd say the second most obvious is Jonathan Taylor. Okay. Mahomes, unbelievable.

Number 10, if you count Joe Flacco, number 10 quarterback per game in six-point per passing touchdown leagues, number 13 in four-point. Yeah, so with Mahomes, why should I be so confident other than i know the things you just said but those don't necessarily get him to qb1 qb2 you know what i mean he's got a long way to go so why should i be confident that he can get back to just what he was last year? You know, I think in this, I don't know how you guys interpret bounce back, but I would say a bounce back is moving back the direction towards what you have been in the past, but not necessarily fully realizing what you were in the past.

I think he needs to. Well, look, if the Holmes is QB six next season, it's not really. That's not. He got drafted as QB two in season. That's not really, that's not, he got drafted as QB two in the draft that we just did. He'll probably be three or four. So Jonathan Taylor has to be RB one. No, he doesn't have to be RB one,

but he needs to be at least second round value to really realize a bounce back. Cause it's going to be about where he gets drafted. He's going to get drafted in the first or the second round. So he can't, he can't be like RB14. I think in terms of Mahomes, if you're drafting him third or fourth, which is probably where he'll end up being ranked, and I would assume, I don't think he gets drafted ahead of Allen,

but he might get drafted as high as two with the expectations of him bouncing back to the level that you expect him to be. Now, assuming that the off season is favorable for him, meaning Kelsey stays and other receivers added, you know, you get another year of rice and his trajectory. Then you're looking at the hope of him getting back to maybe QB one. But if he finishes QB six, I don't think that's a bounce back. He definitely performed better than his previous season, but you don't want that if you're drafting him higher than that. Right. Okay. Thank you, Jamie.

High five to Jamie. If Mahomes, officially. I think, okay. Officially, if Mahomes. I'm going to work by my definition, because otherwise I think my bounce back list would be like two players. No, I think a guy's got to bounce back to, you know, like for Mahomes, does he have to be QB1?

No. But QB6, would you really consider him a bounce back if he finishes as QB6 in 2024? He was QB10 this year. Like I said, I think it's bounce back in the direction of where you were. I don't know where he finished in 2022. Maybe he has to be five. I can tell you where he finished.

2022, he was one or two. 2022, he was per game. But if you're drafting him as the third quarterback, where do you have him ranked? Are you third or fourth? Fourth. So if you're drafting him as the fourth quarterback and he finishes as the sixth quarterback,

did he really bounce back? I don't really think where we rank him for the next year has to do, has anything to do with it. Like this is a sleeper breakout bust conversation, not a, did he bounce back from the prior year discussion? Boy, that's setting the bar pretty low though.

Like then fine. Well, I think like I would assume you're going to have some of these veteran wide receivers. I know Stefan digs is coming. No, I'm not talking about him. Taking a break.

But like a lot of those guys could bounce back. Devante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, who finished really low, could have a lot of room to bounce back without ever realizing what their peak was. Yeah. I don't think they have to bounce back to their peak,

but I think you have to bounce back to what the expectations are for them going into the season. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I don't think they have to bounce back to their peak, but I think you have to bounce back to what the expectations are for them going into the season. Yeah, well, I mean, I'm more on the same page as Jamie. It doesn't mean we're right. But I think Patrick Mahomes bouncing back, I think you'd have to at least factor in where he's being drafted. So I can't imagine he's going to be drafted as QB6, but we've said our piece. No, he's probably drafted. So I can't imagine he's going to be drafted as QB six, but all right,

we've said our piece. No, he's probably four. Yeah. But if I was not, so none of mine, I was taking, I didn't even look at where everybody has these players all ranked.

So I wasn't taking into account what I projected ADP to be in six months. That's fine. I don't think you really have to, but let's, let's let me, I'm a Holmes. He is the best player in football. Him bouncing back is not him being QB six.

OK. According to me. All right. Jonathan Taylor. But you agree that Patrick Mahomes is one of the most obvious bounce back candidates. Yes. Yes. I definitely think he's on the list, but I think some of it is what we're arguing about what he needs to get back to.

Because I do think, all right, if you talk about Mahomes, you say he's a bounce back candidate. We all know how good he can be. We all know he can be the best player, best quarterback in football and fantasy football. We know that. However, if they don't upgrade their receiving core and you've got Kelsey's going to be what, 34 or five? They're going to upgrade their receiving core. That's right. 35 in October.

All right. If they don't, if they don't do anything significant, well, okay. What do you mean by upgrade? I mean, MVS is not going to be on the roster. Well, it could be, as we've seen. I think it's now three years in a row or three of the last four years, a second-round pick on a wide receiver. Right.

And if it's only that, it's not going to be too exciting, right? The odds of most second round wide receivers are better than Sky Moore and Kadarius Toney. But still, I mean, look, if they bring in Tee Higgins. If Tee Higgins was bad, I mean, they don't have the best track record. Rice is so far shattering it. No, most second round wide receivers

don't do much as rookies. But, okay, fine. So if they take a second-round wide receiver, if you look at this roster, do you really... I think they sign a veteran to replace MVS also. All right.

But is that veteran, Gabe Davis, who feels like a little bit of a clone of MVS, just a better version of it? Or is it Marquise Brown? Is it T. Higgins?

Is it Michael Pippen? There's such a sliding scale here of what it can be. I would consider Gabe Davis and a round two wide receiver an upgrade on the wide receiver. Assuming Kelsey's back, I would agree. Yes. I also think the other part is, how much better were his wide receivers in 2022?

We kept talking about this. What's the difference this year? Kelsey was better. Kelsey was better, but Mahomes... Juju was so much better. Juju was better, but he wasn't. But even, you know, late in the season when Juju was doing nothing, he finished after the concussion.

He wasn't really doing much, and Mahomes was still good. Mahomes probably run it back with the same exact roster. He probably has a better year. Well, I mean, you had different moving parts. I mean, you had that stretch of Mikko Hardman. You had the stretch of McKko Hardman you had the stretch of uh McKinnon you know of what those guys brought to you know easy throws with yards after catch and what those guys were able to accomplish you know near the goal line um to

Heath's point the defense took a step forward the run game took a significant step forward you know so there were two things that play there that sort of hindered Mahomes and then of course course you have to factor in, as we've just seen over the last couple of days, the dad bod, I mean, he's just not in the same shape. He looks like me a lot. Yeah. Quarterbacks have that. It looks like Brady on draft day. All right. Uh, Jonathan Taylor, um, Heath, what do you have to say about him? Uh? He ends up as not even a top 30 running back, but obviously only played 10 games. But I don't think he was a top 12 running back on a per-game basis. And part of that is because he was sharing with Zach Moss.

Part of that was because of the injury, probably. And I think what we're trying to do here is we can include guys who were injured for part of the year if their per-game statistics are also going to bounce back, as I the rules yeah i think so um but i would expect going into next year that jonathan taylor is going to be a full go as a feature running back and finish the year as a top six to eight running back okay i'm not i'm not trying to be a i'm not i honestly didn't come here to pick a fight uh he was number 11 per game in full ppr in half and non-ppr he was actually top six that's over how many games 10 so factoring in week 18

yeah any game he played yeah yeah because week 18 was was fantastic for him I don't even remember that. That was the offseason. Yeah. Yeah, no, I think 27.6 fantasy points. Yeah, 30 carries, 188. Oh, right. Of course I remember that. It was a huge game, and Houston was the best run defense in football, basically, and that was to get into the playoffs. Yeah, he had

a great game. I remember where I watched that game. But it did still feel like he wasn't himself, right? It wasn't vintage. Well, I mean, he had two separate significant injuries, you know what I mean, to start the season and then in the middle of the year, you know? And so, and this is why I asked you before the show, like, are we talking injury bounce backs or performance bounce backs? I think he qualifies for both because the beginning of the season,

it wasn't the same performance from Taylor. And the role in the passing game is very intriguing here because not only did Minshew not throw it to him, we don't expect Anthony Richardson to have that sort of influence on the offense because of what he'll do with his legs. So will Taylor's receptions be... He's never going to be a 60-plus catch guy. I don't'll do with his legs. So will, will Taylor's receptions be, he's never going to be a 60 plus catch guy.

I don't, I don't think that's his profile, but you know, we, we talked about this at the height of his prowess, 2021, 2021, you know,

40 catches. Is that, is that on his resume? I think so. Can he get to 40 catches in this offense? It could be a little stretch, but 30 to 40, you know,

that's the hope. Well, could be hard to be a top five running back with that. But he also is a, you know, 2000 total yard guy, you know, because he can rush for 1800 yards and he's already had a 20 touchdown season. I don't think it's that much of a stretch for him to still do it again. Yeah. I don't think it'll be number one. Cause we noted many a time that that 2021 season was a down year for running backs across the board

and so him finishing number one at the position was not necessarily because he had this you know all-time record year but he still could have that type of season and be top five raheem mostert was the number five running back we're talking about jonathan taylor but raheem mostert was the number five running back with only 25 catches the The top four running backs in PPR had 67, 76, 58, and 64 catches. Joe Mixon was RB6 overall, wow, with 52 catches. You gotta score a lot of touchdowns, and he can do it.

Absolutely. Okay, so those are two obvious ones. Mahomes and Taylor. Anyone else? Any other? Jamie, did you have an obvious one? Jamar Chase. You know, and it's tied to Burrow, who I think falls in this category also, but that's more injury-related. But in any event, I think with Chase, a healthy Joe Burrow,

you're going to be thrilled about the production. I don't think anybody's drafting him differently based on what happened this past year. He's still going to be a top five overall pick, I would guess, maybe top six, depending on the format. But still, Jamar Chase in the conversation to be the number one wide receiver and then i will say just based on all of the uh because of the coaching change with all the players there the falcons i think they all qualify as bounce back candidates london to what he's

bouncing back to i don't know but bijan based on expectations and then pits based on i think his rookie season i think all three falcons guys, to me, feel obvious bounce-back candidates. Can a second-year player be a bounce-back candidate? Well, again, it's expectations. Not necessarily to performance, but we thought, to whatever degree, top five overall pick, certainly first-round pick. He was drafted that way, fell below those expectations. So I just think that we're going to get a better season out of all the Falcons.

I think they will bounce back. If you want to say he's not bouncing back to something from being his second year, that's fine. You can maybe say London, too, because what has he done? I think just expectations, they'll bounce back to that. I definitely had Pitts on my list. Okay. Yeah, and I had Burrow and Chase.

And Burrow, yes, he was hurt, but he also played poorly when he played because he was hurt. The calf injury was a huge deal, and it really affected him for a while. But his last five healthy games, actually, if you recall the Baltimore game, he played pretty damn well in that game

before leaving with the injury that ended his season. But the last five healthy games, Joe Burrow scored 23.9 or more points in four of those five games, 26.3 or more in three of those five games, that's six points per passing touchdown leagues. That included a 52-point game for Jamar Chase in that stretch, so they were really clicking. There are some interesting Chase Higgins splits within that, and there have been throughout his career, basically, but we still know how great Burrow and Chase can be. We'll see where Higgins ends up this offseason.

I did put Higgins on the list, too, just same theory. Whether he's back in Cincinnati, better Joe Burrow. Higgins was clearly struggling when he was healthy, dealt with injuries, too. But clearly, if he goes someplace else, I think a lot of people are, are sort of, if you're connecting dots, um, the Titans is a, is a logical landing spot. Office coordinator just went there. They have a need for a number one wide receiver.

If they move on from, from Deandre Hopkins and they'll have money to spend as we've seen. Is Burrow still a bounce back candidate if Higgins is somewhere else? If Higgins is somewhere else? If Higgins is somewhere else? Yeah. I think so. I think there's enough of what the body of work can be with other guys there. And again, I don't think they'd be done adding to their offense if Higgins does leave. You know, look, whenever you have this,

and the Chiefs are probably going to be in a similar situation, you have these quarterbacks receivers. If the money's right, they're going to want to go play with these guys. So I would hope so. I have to look. I mean, I could look right now. I don't remember specifically the games that Higgins, I think week one of 2022 Higgins barely played. Burrow was OK. It's hard to judge Burrow at that point because he's come back from the calf.

No, 2022. Oh, I'm sorry um yeah i we could look into that all right so that was the game he's come back from the hernia right he's been he'd either been heading into or coming off of an injury for most of his career yeah okay so i if i just want to conclude this conversation i'll tell you where these guys were drafted in our most recent draft, which is a half PPR 12 team draft. So Mahomes was QB2, but he was the 47th pick of the draft. And that was the second to last pick of round four. And it's well,

is it the half PPR one or the half? Yeah, half. So yeah, do you tell me, is that good value for Mahomes? It's unrealistic value, but yeah. Well, he was QB2. 48, yeah, that's

late. 46, that's late, but QB2. I don't know. Burrow was QB8. He went after Stroud, Fields, and Richardson. Amazing value. So I'm going to change my opinion, but in this draft, Burrow was a much better bounce back candidate than Mahomes. Stroud, Fields, and Richardson. Amazing value. I'm going to change my opinion, but in this draft, Burrow was a much better bounce-back candidate than Mahomes.

Let's see where Jonathan Taylor went. He went in the second round with the third pick of the second round, just ahead of Barkley after A-chan. Amazing value. Do you like A-chan or Taylor? Taylor.

Yeah, I think probably Taylor. amazing value like a chan or taylor taylor um yeah i think i probably taylor chase was the eighth overall pick he was wide receiver six he went after amandra saint brown amazing value and the falcons see drake london was around pick. Bijan was the fifth overall pick. And Kyle Pitts was, to Jamie, the third to last pick of round six. Too soon on Pitts. For now. Yeah, Drake London went just ahead of Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, Calvin Ridley. Again, you know, I'll sort of hedge a little bit, but the right quarterback gets there.

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Sign up for Paramount Plus. Get a one-week trial if you're a new subscriber. We'll be right back. After this break, we'll give you the news and notes and get into more bounce-back candidates after this. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations.

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Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. We got some head coaches and some coordinators being hired. And Jerry Jones, you're allowed to say no comment, but we'll get into that in a moment. Seattle hired Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald as their head coach coach and we'll just wait to see who the coordinator is going to be green bay hired a new defensive coordinator jeff hafley he was the head coach for boston college and every time and time again you see these stories about these college coaches who just don't want to deal with it anymore the

transfer portal stuff the uh the payment stuff, sorry, the NIL stuff. But yeah, it stinks. Well, it sounds to me like they just need a general manager for college football teams. Because all those things exist in the NFL too. There's just somebody else that deals with it. Let's see. Tennessee named Baltimore defensive backs coach

Denard Wilson as their defensive coordinator. Jerry Jones says there's no doubt in his mind that he could work with Bill Belichick. I'm like, why would you say that?

You think that's the right, you think that's a good thing to say for your coach? They lose week one. It's going to be, oh, Belichick, Belichick. All right, anyway. And Russell Wilson

could be traded to the Raiders according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, but let's start with the Seahawks and their new head coach, Mike McDonald, the defensive coordinator for the Ravens. Any reaction here, Jamie, or just want to wait and see who he hires as the OC.

Yeah, it's hard when you have a defensive coordinator going, especially someone this young to see what they're going to do from an offensive standpoint. I mean, look, I don't think much is going to change how we feel about the skill players there. The one guy that would sort of, I think, really jump a couple of tiers would be Jackson Smith and the Jigba if they move on from Tyler Lockett, but that's not a coaching thing. That's more of a personnel thing, but I think we're still going to get a split backfield.

I think it's still going to be Gino Smith, a quarterback. There's still, you know, DK Metcalf as a, uh, number two wide receiver. And again,

the, the second receiver there. So unless it's a tight end friendly system and, you know, they, they bring in somebody to, you know, upgrade over Noah Fant and the guys that they have there.

I think it's kind of status quo, at least as of right now. I do think like that, and it was always going to be a regime change, but the regime change does add some uncertainty to the Ken Walker, Charbonnet roles and touch dispersion. Like how, how those two guys are viewed by the next coaching staff and specifically whoever he hires at offensive coordinator will be really important.

And I think Jamie hit it on the head with Lockett. Like it's probably more likely that they move on from him now with a new regime. You want to talk about the Russell Wilson rumor that he could get traded to the Raiders? The landing spots I think that are the most logical. The Raiders are one. The Falcons would be another.

Maybe Tampa Bay. I would not be shocked if he does not get a starting job. If he goes someplace that has an unsettled starter that he can be back up. And, you know, you look at who he's worked with, like could Carolina consider bringing him in to mentor Bryce young. And if they don't think Bryce young is getting the job done, they make a switch that seems a little unlikely, but you never know. But I mean,

obviously at this point, his options are minimal. Yeah. Unless there's a team in the, that we expect in the draft to take a quarterback that passes on one, like new England passes on a quarterback or Washington passes on a quarterback. And he ends up in a destination of that.

But I think the Raiders and the Falcons make the most sense. Right. I, I don't know. And I've and i've had a more positive impression of russell wilson the last 12 months i think than most so i could just be wrong but i'd be really surprised if he's not starting week one somewhere next week next year okay let's talk about more bounce back candidates here and um who wants to uh who wants to start i mean i had some injury related ones so some of them we've touched on a little bit but um kyler murray is is one to me uh you know coming off of an injury i think there's a little bit more to offer and and i thought he was fairly successful given the small sample size from week 10 on you know given the fact that he was thrown into a new offense without a training camp. He was dealing with a lot of new wide receivers.

There were a lot of moving parts. Marquise Brown missing time. So we didn't know what exactly it would look like. But he definitely has the upside to be a top, I don't know, top five, but not far off from that. Definitely top 10. And feels like, based on the drafts that i've done so far um a very good value pick for somebody you can get in the back half of the number one quarterbacks i love him i just wonder does kyler murray need a stud receiver to really

to really thrive you know because it we we know his Hopkins, with and without Hopkins splits. Well, he was pretty good without Hopkins for the first six games of 2022, as I recall, but Marquise Brown went off. And does Marvin Harrison, you know, do enough for you there, assuming it's him? If he's the guy, but I think, you know, assuming he doesn't get him, I think he has a number one tight end. And my number one tight end, like

maybe best tight end in the league, you know, he could have that type of player on his team. And it's not necessarily the receiving core that's carrying him. It's the tight end and parts around that, you know, so McBride has that type of potential and ability. And so it's just a different version of what the number one option in the passing game is. But yeah, I mean, there's, there, there's's there's an upgrade that needs to happen there you know i i think you have you know michael wilson and rondell moore and greg dorch and you know that that's not enough to say kyler murray's got top five potential but yeah if it's marvin harrison jr or it's a free agent of some significance then my gosh he could be a monster all right fire away guys keep going um yeah i had uh christian kirk as a bounce back

candidate and there was that weird stretch at the beginning of the year where he wasn't quite on the same page with trevor lawrence but i i pretty much expect him to be the 1a or 1b for lawrence next year and be a number two wide receiver for most of the year? So I totally agree. And he's got, it's funny, I left him off the list because is he injury related or is he performance related? Because he missed so much time at the end of the season. The Calvin Ridley decision for the Jaguars is going to be fascinating because if they give him a contract, that's a second round pick they have to give up.

I don't think he's worth a second round pick at this point based on his career and what he showed, but they can still, uh, I heard Pete Prisco talking about this on the pick six podcast that they can tag him and work around it that way, uh, by not giving him an extension.

No, I think he said the mechanics of, of how this works was his phrase. So does that change what happens there? Now, I would probably let Calvin Ridley walk and not pay because the franchise tag is expensive for receivers, obviously. And did he do enough? Now we could say, okay, some of those poor plays were not his fault.

The lack of touchdowns were not his fault. Some of the production was unlucky. But it felt like Trevor Lawrence had a better season two years ago with how things closed for him. And that's not really his fault. But does he need Calvin Ridley? Does he need another player? Like, is Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Ingram enough?

You'd like to think from a team standpoint they have somebody else. But, I mean, Kirk was pretty solid two years ago and pretty solid at times this past season. So yeah, I agree with you. And I think he's a great bounce back. And because a lot of people are going to forget about him,

unless of course, you know, we just hype them up to the point of nobody else is there and he's back on, on, on the same page that he was two years ago. Okay. Let's see where he finished per game two years ago.

He was wide receiver, 20 per game per game 84 catches 1100 yards eight touchdowns for christian kirk uh i can throw out some of mine if you guys you can go whatever i have others yeah yeah keep going go for it um i think josh jacobs you know based on how things unfolded for him you know not the injury but the the games when he was healthy i don't think he played, but the games when he was healthy. I don't think he played clearly to the level that he was two years ago. Now we don't know where he's playing yet, so that's a big part of this. But Heath has brought this up a billion times, how young he still is. I think when you look at it, it feels like he's been in the league forever,

but he's just going to be 26 this year, if I'm not mistaken. So he still has another year or two to to produce at a high level and i think in the right system can still be or right team could still be one of the better fantasy running backs that we've had uh over the last couple years now the body of work suggests you know 13 to 14 ppr points is kind of where he's lived outside of the year where he led the nfl in russian two years ago um but we know he's got that upside and i think he also could be a better pass catcher than we've seen as well. Yeah, so I had, every time I,

this was a frustrating exercise for me because I had some guys and then I looked at where they were drafted in the most recent draft that we did. And I can't, I don't know that I can call Josh Jacobs a bounce back candidate when he was drafted in the third round as RB13. I think that's why you're making it so much more difficult

is by factoring in future ADP into a bounce back. Just look at their fantasy points per game in the past and their fantasy points per game last year, and can they bounce back? Oh, well, that's not very difficult. I mean, I'm trying to make this a little bit challenging here, but I don't even know what to expect from Josh Jacobs at this point, because I'm getting kind of Miles Sanders vibes from him. I also just, he was one of the first names I thought of as a

bounce back. But then looking into it, I just feel like if he doesn't get almost every touch in the backfield for a team, then he's not going to be that good. And if he goes to a different team, you know, free agent running backs are risky anyway. Miles Sanders, for whatever reason, is coming to mind. And, you know, Josh Jacobs has had a bad yards per carry in three of four seasons, I'd say. I think four, four, 3.5 or 4.1, 4. Which is kind of the opposite of Sanders, right? Like Sanders had a great yards per carry almost every season. Yeah, exactly. But and that makes it even scarier um but he's just he's had

two years he's been really efficient the reason why i had him as a bounce back is because he had a he had a bad off season where he wasn't playing he was a holdout and he said it took him a while to get back and his first seven games were terrible he averaged 2.9 yards per carry. He had two carries of 12 or more yards. He had a long of 24 yards. I mean, he was, I'd have to say the worst running back in football for the first seven games. And then he got back in his last six games, four yards per carry, which is like kind of what I expect from him. But yeah, I don't know. I guess I just get that feeling that if Josh Jacobs does not get basically every touch, he's been a bell cow pretty much every single year of his career. And if he doesn't get that,

then he could be bad. And well, if they turn to, you know, Chuba Hubbard, like Miles Sanders, then you could be talking about a total bust. There's that potential.

And obviously where he ends up, we'll, we'll determine how we feel about him. But I mean, Minnesota, if he went there, I think we'd be very excited about that. What if he's the

Saquon Barkley replacement for the Giants? They decide they want a veteran and want to spend some money. I would not be excited about that. But if he's getting every touch? I just think that for the Giants, you have to be special to be good on that team with you know, with that offensive line.

I mean, Jaden Daniels and Josh Jacobs is a pretty good restart, right? If they get Jaden Daniels, but he's not going to last till six, most likely. But, you know, I mean, you got to be able to make big plays. Saquon Barkley can still do that. That's not really a Josh Jacobs thing. He did that a couple times late in the season, but he's more of a bell cow workhorse guy to me anyway. But also he's kind of,

how many running backs you see their yards per carry in five seasons fluctuate that much? He's a curious case. And their catches and all that stuff. He's just been a, he's had a weird career. It's not like he's the same guy every year. How do you feel about him, Heath? Josh Jacobs.

I think I'd like to see where he's going to be playing before I have a strong opinion on him. He's a running back. And so the most important thing with a running back is the situation around them and the number of touches that they're given. All right. Baltimore.

How much would you like him in Baltimore? Yeah, a lot. I don't much would you like him in Baltimore? Yeah, a lot. I don't think I'd like him that much. I don't think Baltimore is... Not much? I don't think Baltimore is... Look, I would like him as a fourth-round pick or something like that in Baltimore,

but it's kind of like Philadelphia. You know, you don't get... So technically, for him to be a good bounce-back candidate, you need a bad landing spot so that the ADPs held down so he has a better chance of being a bounce-back candidate. Well, he was the RB17 per game. So what's he going to bounce back

to? RB13? Right, that's the thing. I don't think he's going to bounce back to what he was in 2022 when he was one of the best picks in fantasy. But that was the outliers he's a friend. Yeah, right. And someone might get that excited about RB13. You know, I don't know. Does he have – so that's the thing.

When you call Josh Jacobs a bounce-back candidate, are you talking about bouncing back to 2022? His best season? I don't think he gets back to that, no. But I do think he gets back to what he was prior to that. Cause this year felt like it was down to, I feel like this, your,

your entire stick for the last 33 minutes was just designed to drive me crazy. No, not at all. You just like, like, how can I drive you mad? Not at all.

And the, the, the level of definition you're putting into what would be an acceptable bounce back. I don't believe we've talked about anybody who qualifies. I disagree. Patrick Mahomes could be the number one quarterback in fantasy. But if he's not, then he's not.

No, if he's number three, then he bounces back. If he's number six, that's not really a bounce back season. Like, I think you're being, okay, the guy finished number 18 at wide receiver. Next year, he's number 14. Is that a bounce back season? No. That's just improving a little bit. That's not what we're talking about here.

We're not talking about guys. If he was wide receiver 14, running back 14 or wide receiver 14 the year before, and then wide receiver 18, and then wide receiver 14, that is exactly a bounce back candidate. A bounce back. What if Josh, okay, what was Josh Jacobs in 2022? I don't know. He was like the best pick in fantasy, you know?

That's what I'm asking. What does Josh Jacobs bounce back to? And we agree he's not going to, he was the number three running back per game in fantasy. Okay, he averaged 19.4 points per game. It is. Someone says give Adam a break. It's the off season.

It is. But no, I'm saying... Just to let you know, we were nominated. People still might be watching today. They don't have to vote. I mean, it's not fan voting. I think Jahan Dotson is a good bounce back candidate. He was right around wide receiver 40 his rookie year on the per game basis.

Scored all the touchdowns early in the year. He had a strong, strong stretch to finish out the year, final six games, I believe he was the top 25 wide receiver, and then just completely disappeared last year. But now Curtis Samuel's gone. He's going to get a quarterback upgrade. Finished last year at wide receiver 70. I think he might even have a career year and be better than wide receiver 40

and beat his ADP and be a complete bounce back player. So would you say if Jahan Dotson had 900 yards, five touchdowns and finished as wide receiver 31, would you say he had a breakout season? He had a bounce back season for sure. But would you call it a breakout season? Yes. It was the best season of his career. Yeah. But that's such a lame definition. Come on up the stakes, up the stakes. If I want a breakout season. Yes, it was the best season of his career. Yeah, but that's such a lame definition. Come on, up the stakes, up the stakes. If I want a breakout, breakouts win you leagues. They don't just have the best season of their career. This is your definition.

Like nobody else, this is something you created that is a clever saying, and I think it's a fine way to define it, but you don't judge everyone, the whole industry's breakout picks by what Adam Azar says. No, but you can't say, oh, I got that breakout pick right. If a guy technically had his best season and it wasn't

an impactful season at all, a breakout, whatever. Well, I don't, I don't think he can still be impactful. I mean, if he's going to be wide receiver 31, if it's just, you know, consistent mediocrity throughout the course of the year, then it's not great, but he could have a career breakout, but not be a fantasy breakout. I mean, those two things are certainly not mutually – Yeah, that's what I'm saying. But if you write an article with a guy on a breakout list, I don't want him to have a career breakout.

I want him to have a fantasy breakout. Well, you like to be both, I mean, clearly. But, like, I'm trying to think. If Puka Nakua never has another big season – I'm trying to think if, uh, if, if Puka Nakua never has another big season. Yeah. I don't think, I don't think Puka is going to be,

but he's not gonna be on a breakout list. Exactly. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know who's a good example. Like was Jordan, was Jordan Addison impactful last year?

Yeah. While cousins played. Yeah. No. Yeah. And then when Jefferson, he was wide receiver 31 per game on the season. Yeah, he was impactful, but...

Right, so if you got that year from Jahan Dotson, the stretch of games that he was great, you were considering him a breakout player. Yeah, he wasn't that good. I mean mean wide receiver 31 is not that good okay take zay flowers for example the five games that he had without mark andrews yeah that was that was great but was his full season what did he finish as right but again i think to his point if you're getting if you're getting that stretch of games he had a a breakout season, but he wasn't a breakout player. He was wide receiver 30 overall.

What do you mean he had a breakout season? Because of five games or whatever it was at the end of the year? Assuming we're not talking about a rookie. We're obviously using a rookie here. If we're talking about a player that has a breakout season by his own personal numbers, he was a breakout player. He wasn't a breakout fantasy player, though. Yeah, so I don't care about – I care about if he's a breakout fantasy player. Obviously, we're talking about bounce-back players today, not breakouts.

And also, I'm looking at Jordan Addison's game log right now, and first half he was very good. He scored a lot of touchdowns. And second half he was very good he scored a lot of touchdowns and second half he was he was pretty terrible i mean fewer than 11 points in one two three four five six seven of his last nine games seven of his last eight games if you don't count week 18 so i mean yeah i don't i'm not even sure what the point is with jordan addison did he have an impact yes he had an mscore 10 touchdowns you 31, based on your example. Wide receiver 31, what, per game?

The reason he was brought up was, yeah, because you said Jahan Dotson would not be impactful if he finishes wide receiver 31 next year. I mean, I was just throwing out a number. Wide receiver 31, yeah, it's fine. It's good. But it's not a breakout. If there was ever a perfect opportunity for the Billy Madison gifif it's right here which

billy madison gif we're all dumber after what was just said i just think that to me yeah it's fine i do does it does a number three receiver is that a breakout player we're talking about bounce backs i just suggested john dodson as a bounce back candidate and now you're saying how high does he have to finish to be a breakout? What does that have to do with it? I'm saying raise the stakes on what a bounce back is and a breakout. I mean, a bounce back has to be a breakout now? No, there were two separate discussions.

But bouncing, Patrick Mahomes finishing his QB eight next year is not going to be a bounce back. We're talking about Jahan Dotson. I understand that. I'm not disagreeing with your Jahan Dotson pick. So then why did you bring anything up about this? Why are you arguing? What's the point of your argument? I said something.

I tried to get us back on track and talked about a bounce back wide receiver for 60 seconds. And your immediate response was trying to argue with me about how he wouldn't be a breakout if he finished wide receiver 31. You're the one who said I was trying to make you crazy. You made it personal. No, I did not. I just, okay, fine.

You want me to make it personal? I think your definition of a bounce back is weak. That's what I think. What does it have to do with Jahan Dotson? I think it does. I think Pat Fryermuth is a good bounce back candidate. Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator. Both Kyle Pitts and Jonu Smith finished higher than Fryermuth is a good bounce back candidate. He had Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator. Both Kyle Pitts and John O'Smith

finished higher than Fryermuth last year. But Fryermuth has shown us in the past an ability to score a lot of touchdowns and an ability to earn a lot of targets. If he puts both of those together in Arthur Smith's tight end centric system, he's an excellent bounce back candidate. I completely agree.

I think that's a great call. Do you have any other bounce back candidates? Anything to add to the conversation? You know, you're being a little rude, to be honest with you here. I am being a little rude. Yes, you are. I am the one being rude here. Yes, I'm trying to have a fantasy discussion with you.

You're taking it so personally. I'm not the only one that's allowed to get criticized or poked at on this show. And I always take it in stride. Try taking it in stride. It's not that hard. I'm just trying to have a conversation here. You're taking it so personally. I'm not attacking you. Chill out. It's fantasy football.

Alright, let's take a break here. Yes, I'll throw out some more names when we come back if you'd like. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Alright, would you like to go? Would anybody like to suggest something? I got one. Alright, who do you got? Jalen Waddle. I had him as well. And I had Tua actually as well.

Yeah, hopefully Tua bounces back. Look, for Waddle, he was a stud in 2022. And then last year was not so great. He had some injury concerns. Obviously, I felt that there was a little bit of a push to get Tyree killed to 2,000 yards. And that, I think, impacted Jalen Waddell a little bit. But we know what he's capable of doing.

Prior to this past season, set the rookie record for receptions in a year. His second year had a huge jump in yards per catch and what he was able to do as a big play threat with Mike McDaniel. And then step back in year three, which is not something you like to see. So career year, I don't know if he'll get to his career year and be a breakout, but I certainly think he can be a bounce-back candidate and probably end up being a good value pick. I think in the one draft, you took him in either the 3-4 turn

from the 12 spot, which is just ridiculous. Can still perform like a second-round pick, which is what the expectation was for him going into the year. Yeah, and I had Tua because it's this simple. I don't really think Tua's a great quarterback. I don't even know. But I think he's kind of a system guy, but he's going to be in that system,

and he's going to have Tyreek, and he's going to have Waddle. And the first 12 games of the season, they were both healthy, and he was the number 10 quarterback per game. And also, he threw for number 10 quarterback per game. And also like he, he threw for 4,624. I think he led the NFL in passing, didn't he? But in the first 12 games

of the year, he was on pace for 4,900 yards, 34 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. He doesn't run at all to a, he'll pretty much never score a rushing touchdown. So that's going to cap

his ceiling a little bit. But in the draft that we did that I keep referencing, he was the 16th quarterback off the board, and I think it's very reasonable that he's the QB 10 or something like that. So he could certainly bounce back. He can. It feels like there's still going to be, especially if HN becomes what he can be,

too much emphasis on the run game. Well, that was the other thing. 27 rushing touchdowns, none of them by Tua. That hurt the passing game. You know, not Tyreek, but that hurt Tua. Then again, they might just score fewer points next year. But, yeah. Well, you also have the other part of this is, you know,

Tyreek getting older, and does he miss any time? He played through a lot of injuries this year too, whereas Waddle missed a little bit more time. And does Tyreek not play? And that opens the door for hopefully more production from Waddle. Did Waddle have any partial games last year? I don't remember.

Or was it all just like he played and then missed time and then played? I know there was the second Jets game, I believe, where he left. I think the Eagles game? Fantasy points per game last year weren't that much different. It's like a point, point and a half off of what he'd been a couple years before.

It might just be if he stays healthy he was kind of the same guy in a different way again. He's never had two seasons that looked exactly the same. Exactly, yeah. He left the Eagles game early, and then he left the Chiefs game early. Not super early in those. He played about half the snaps of both those games.

He just didn't play that many snaps. His snaps were limited pretty much all season, Jalen Waddell. Does anybody think Devontae Adams is a bounce-back candidate, or is he just getting old? You could probably put the older receivers into the same canoe of Cooper Cup and Stephon Diggs and Devontae Adams and maybe DeAndre Hopkins. They all have potential to be what Keenan Allen and Mike Evans were

this past year if they stay healthy and get better quarterback play. Like, does Russell Wilson get you excited about Devontae Adams if he ends up in Las Vegas? I would say you should be moderately excited by that option, you know, because based on what we saw from just Derekrick carr and and adams two years ago you know just competent quarterback play will will help uh a receiver now he's i don't think he's going to get back to you know 1920 ppr points per game but 16 to 17 like that's still on the table for me he basically did that this year um cooper cup you know with lower expectations and

hopefully healthy can still be a stud. He's still getting targets last year. He just wasn't producing, and who knows how healthy he was playing through the foot and ankle injury. And then Diggs, you know, seemingly staying in Buffalo with still leading the team in targets, you know, on a week-to-week basis. That's definitely there, too. So all these guys

are going to end up being, I think, good value picks. And I said this yesterday on the things we learned. Like, I'm probably going to avoid a lot of these guys, but if they fall at the right spot in a draft, you have to take them. I think with Adams, with Diggs, with Hopkins, with Henry, with Eckler, with basically running backs, Aaron Jones, running backs 28 or older with wide receivers, 30 or older. Like if as a group, you take Jamieie's approach i'm going to avoid those guys you're going to be right much more often than you're wrong guys that are moving in a downward

trend that are past the peak age don't often bounce back and have great years um but one or two of those guys will probably bounce back in the direction of what they've been in the past yeah he had a bad year uh davante adams was, per game, he was still a top 20 guy, but the metrics were bad. One of his metrics that was bad, though, was yards after catch per reception, and I have found that to be, unless there's a serious ADOT change,

I found that to be a stat that could fluctuate wildly. I just don't see a reason why Devontae Adams' yak per catch should have been so low. And I take a look at DK Metcalf. He experienced that in 2022 and then it went way back up in 2023. So that could come back. But the bottom line, the reason why I put Adams there, he was on the worst offense of his career.

Or at least the worst offense of the last eight years. I mean, I look at the first two years of his career because they didn't do much. But the last eight years of his career, this was the worst passing offense that Devontae Adams has been on. Fewest passing yards per game, pretty sure the fewest passing touchdowns. Is that because he wasn't that good?

Is that what's, it's a chicken egg thing, right? Like maybe he's the reason why. Maybe he got old or maybe just terrible quarterback play. So still have some hope. I would lean toward the latter for him. You know, I mean, he still showed the ability to get open. He's not going to run away from guys like he used to

because that's what happens when you get older. Can he sort of have, you know, you've talked about this a lot, Adam, in regards to Keenan Allen. Can he have the slot receiver sort of, you know, twilight of, you know, still getting a lot of targets? And that was a big part of it. You know, he had 180 targets two years ago. And, you know, it of you know still getting a lot of targets and that was a big part of it you know he had 180 targets two years ago and you know it's hard to maintain that level when you're trying to be a little bit more of a balanced offense and what did they change well they lost

darren waller but did they really have darren waller for a good portion of the 2022 campaign no uh jacoby myers was a huge upgrade for what we saw as the number two receiver there they hadn't had something like that you know or adams didn't have something like that the year before. But when you start to see these guys getting older, it's easy to say, okay, I'm going to lean more, like he said, toward not having high expectations for them. Now, again, the value for some of these players last year changed dramatically. Keenan Allen fell.

Mike Evans really fell. And Adam Thielen was, was basically an afterthought. Um, you know, I go back to our podcast league. Uh, if you recall, I picked up Adam Thielen and I shared a team with, with, uh, Todd Rones. We, we picked up Adam Thielen on a Monday night. I think it was Monday night with the pants playing Monday night. It had to have, um, Deontay Johnson was placed on IR and we had the ability to put him in an IR spot and pick up just anybody. He was one of the only players available. We picked him up,

dropped him on Tuesday, and he went on to have this fantastic season. Every time I talk to Todd, I'm like, I'm so sorry. We picked him up and dropped him. Didn't get drafted in a 14-team league or at least was dropped early in the season before he had his good stretch.

By me. You know, you got some good values on some of these players, and we'll probably see that again. Like, Diggs is going to be what? What would you say Diggs gets drafted? Round four? If they don't add anybody major. You think it could be lower?

No, I think Diggs, he went in round two weeks ago i'm i don't think he's gonna last that long okay so round three yeah okay is anybody here taking a round two i'm not i might but it'd be late it would be like think about who we were taking at the two three turn we were taking some unproven guys and most of them didn't really pan out, like Waddle, then Devante Smith, Pitt, Higgins. We were looking for these young breakouts. Okay, so you will, Heath and I will not. Okay, so Adams, you're taking it

before round three? No, no way. Okay. I'm trying to think who else. Cooper Cup? No. Probably not. So they're going to end up being good value picks here,

and I think Evans is still going to get drafted based on some of the things that we've discussed probably too soon keenan allen may end up being a good value pick but yeah there's they're they're these these players if they fall to the right spots you're going to get good value out of them if not you're going to be just disappointed and i think you'll probably be disappointed more times than not if you're taking these older players too soon i'm right, I'm going to save the emails for next week. We'll have a mailbag episode. So please, I have emails from Johannes, from Scott, and from Adam. And he says, best name out there.

I actually never really liked my name. I think Johannes is actually Jahan. Oh, wait, no, I shouldn't say that. Sorry. I got nothing against Jahan Dotson. I didn't mean to make that about Jahan Dotson. No, I like Jahan Dotson. Okay. Anyway, we'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today. Thanks for watching, everybody. See you soon.

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