Fantasy Football Today - Bounceback Candidates! (02/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 6, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We're always looking for value in Fantasy drafts, so how about we focus on some players who underperformed in 2022? Dave, Jamey and Heath give their favorite bounceback candidates at the top of the show (2:30). Jonathan Taylor will bounce back, but what are the chances he finishes as RB1 again? Diontae Johnson will score a touchdown in 2023! We've also got some news and notes (7:35) from around the NFL ... Making the bounce back cases for Lamar Jackson (14:25), Mike Gesicki (18:45) and Russell Wilson (22:40). Wilson is not so far removed from being an elite quarterback, so why is everyone acting like he is washed up? ... More players who could rebound from disappointing seasons: D.K. Metcalf (29:30); Najee Harris (36:45); Mark Andrews (41:10); Terry McLaurin (46:50). Hear arguments for and against each player ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to Super Bowl week, everybody. How are you feeling, Heath? Feeling confident? I don't know if confident's the right word, but I'm excited. I'm hopeful. What are you more excited for, the game or the food? Not just the food, but the food, the drinks, the friends, the Super Bowl festivities.

Are you more excited for the game or the fun that goes into Super Bowl? Very excited for both. But I do think that this is one of those years where we got the two best teams in football playing in the Super Bowl, the two number one seeds, just a couple of spectacular young quarterbacks. It has to be the game. I think this could be one of the best Super Bowls we've had in a while. I hope so.

I hope so. I hope so. Well, that's Heath. Dave's here. Hey, Dave. It's the game for me, too, despite my rotund size. I am excited about the matchup. I think it's going to be a good one. And I think I'm changing my pick, too.

You're going to Eagles. Welcome. Welcome aboard. I'm changing my pick. I'm going to Philadelphia. Okay, okay. Jamie, how's it going? It's going well.

How are you? I'm doing great. So what about you? More excited for the game or the festivities? I am more excited for the game. I think the festivities, you know, for me, it's a little disappointing because I have to leave wherever I end up going. I have to leave at hal end up going i have to leave

at halftime because of the kids because of the kids you know so that's like kind of a bug because you know they have to get the they have to get the process of going to bed started can't be you get to stay up late on the super bowl sunday it's a rule i i guess you can let them stay up a little later hey adam how was your weekend? Was it really fun? How are you going to miss by the time their careers are done the greatest quarterback maybe of all time against the greatest team of all time?

How are you going to miss that game? They won't remember it anyway, but I agree. It is going to be an epic matchup. My weekend was great, Heath, and if you're wondering, I have not gone to the gym yet. Still zero appearances there. All right, let's get into the show. Today we're talking about bounce-back candidates, and we have some notes for you as well. I want your favorite bounce-back candidate. First of all, what does it say? You can't be over 30 if you're a bounce-back

candidate, Heath. Was that a joke? No, I just think there's a pretty good chance if you're over 30, and quarterback might be the exception, but if you're over 30 and you had a bad year, it's probably just the beginning of the end. Okay. You know, I thought maybe Russell Wilson would be mentioned on the show, but I don't, I don't know that he will be other than just now. So how about Jamie? Why don't you start giving me your favorite bounce back candidate?

I think he will score one touchdown in 2023. So I'll go Deontay Johnson, who was still top 10 and targets went through two quarterbacks in this, uh, topsy turvy topsyturvy season for him. Still had 86 catches. I still think he's going to be a focal point in the passing game despite the improvements from George Pickens in year two.

And so I think you'll get a huge discount on Deontay Johnson and we'll bounce back in a big way. Okay. Dave, you ready? Yeah. I'll take the low-hanging fruit of Jonathan Taylor, a third-year running back who had to deal with a high ankle sprain that basically harpooned his entire season, but still has immense talent, and I'm expecting the Indianapolis offense to be a lot better

than what it was last year, and hopefully he stays healthier, and he bounces back from finishing 18th in PPR points per game in 2022. Taylor was 18th? Yeah. Wow. But that probably includes the Minnesota game, right? Played like two snaps, something like that. Do we have the official Azerstat rankings?

No, should I do that? 101 million percent. Okay. One million percent. I would... I might even pay money for that. I'll do that. Okay, we'll make a guide.

All right, so do you guys think Jonathan Taylor... Because nobody has him ranked number one. What are the odds that he bounces back to the number one running back in fantasy? Slim. 25%. Because we've talked about this a lot, that it was a fluky number one, right?

Yeah, it was a pretty low number one. Because of the lack of receptions. Right, right. Okay. Heath, who's your favorite bounce back? Well, I think the low-hanging fruit is Justin Herbert. Even if nothing else had changed for him, he would have been one of the top regression candidates.

Not as good of a candidate as Deontay Johnson with zero touchdowns, but he had a 5.2% touchdown rate his first year, 5.7%. His second year, that fell to 3.6% last year. His yards per attempt, 7.4% the first two years in his career, fell to 6.8% last year. He's a 25-year-old quarterback going into next year. I don't think he's lost any talent. Now he gets the offensive coordinator upgrade as well.

So I would expect a full and complete bounce back from Justin Herbert. Do you see the report from The Athletic that they might cut Keenan Allen? That would make me less excited about it. Yeah, Gerald Everett too. Well, Gerald Everett I would expect. Bye-bye. I know, I know. Brandon Saley said that they want to be able to run the ball a little bit more.

He kind of intimated that in a recent press conference. It might have been his end-of-the-year one, and we missed it. Aren't talking about it until now. But, you know, if they cut Keenan Allen, and obviously they move on from Gerald Everett, that means they could sign somebody. They could draft somebody.

Could get interesting there. Could add a little bit more of a spark to that passing game. It makes Josh Palmer a huge breakout candidate. Yeah, yeah. But they still need speed. Yeah, I think, I guess, I mean, Herbert's a great player. He was the number two or three quarterback in fantasy two years ago, 2021. Just is he going to have the weapons compared to the other guys?

Do you need to see him – do you need to see them add somebody? Well, if he has Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Eckler, then I don't know that he has worse – I mean, maybe slightly worse weapons than someone, but that's in the upper echelon of weapons in the NFL. Yeah, I'd still throw Palmer in there too, with Eckler too. I don't know that people, I don't know that everybody agrees with that.

I think I saw a lot of buzz like, okay, even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Eckler, they don't really have a lot of speed. They don't really have a dynamic playmaker necessarily. It depends how people view Mike Williams. It's not bad weapons per se, but it's not guys who are going to make

a lot of plays for Justin Herbert, I guess. I would say it's better weapons than Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes had this year. Mahomes, yeah. It's a pretty fair point okay uh if you want to hear about the senior bowl we were going to talk about it today but we're going to we're going to skip that and talk more about bounce back candidates if you want to hear about the senior bowl check out the fantasy football today in five podcast we had emory hunt on there with chris towers talking

about his senior bowl takeaways so a good way to get started on your nfl draft prep some of the top seniors in the in college football taking center stage there, but check out FFT in 5 just in general. I think you're going to get 5 episodes per week pretty soon, so check that out and anywhere you listen to podcasts. Fantasy Football Today in 5, that's just 5 6 minutes basically of great fantasy

football advice. News and notes, we have some coordinator hires, hirings. Carolina hired former Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Averro as their defensive coordinator. He had a great year last year as the D.C. in Denver. Dallas hired Brian Schottenheimer as the offensive coordinator.

And we know Mike McCarthy's going to call plays, Dave, so does this really matter? Does this register much for you? No, the Schottenheimer hire doesn't register that much. It's probably just somebody to bounce ideas off of or have somebody give ideas to McCarthy. I don't know how often Mike McCarthy will accept those ideas and mesh them with his own.

Getting a little nervous about what this offense could look like with McCarthy and now Schottenheimer there. But is McCarthy such a bad thing? Can we look at his Green Bay tenure and say, oh, that's actually pretty good? Well, I mean, part of it is that he had Aaron Rodgers, so of course

the numbers are going to end up looking really good. Definitely was pass-heavy when he was there, and you would expect them to be, because they had Aaron Rogers and you can, I can look into it a little bit more and get back to you on it within, you know, two minutes. I've got a whole file on them that I've got to find, but I think he was, he's okay.

He's necessarily somebody that has evolved as often changed so much over the past, you know, three years, four years since he last called plays that it's going to be different and up to date with what we're looking for from this type of era in the NFL. I think the argument against him is that it looked like Aaron Rodgers was

washed and then they got rid of McCarthy, brought in somebody else, and he won back-to-back MVPs. Washed up. So next news item is Zach Wilson. The Jets don't intend to trade Zach Wilson. They're hoping that he can develop while kind of learning as a backup. That's according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Gino Smith said that talks with the Seahawks are looking good.

They said they want him back. Hopefully they can get something worked out there. The Chargers, their offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, talked about wanting to develop more running backs to take turns. I feel like we hear this a lot. It never really happens. Jamie, can you foresee a scenario where another running back on the Chargers hurts Austin Eckler's fantasy value in a fairly or somewhat significant way

that would make him maybe more like a top 12 guy, but not a top three. I mean, you know, they, they drafted Isaiah Spiller to, you know, I think to be more of a playmaker for them and that didn't materialize. Right. Right. So I think there's, there's some potential. I mean, you know, he's what, 28 next year. And you got to start to figure that a, they need to, you know, if they're going to be the team, they hope to be want to make sure he's fresh and ready to go by the time they

get to the end of the season and be maybe start to groom somebody else, you know, for what's coming maybe in 2024. So Dave alluded to this, you know, Brandis Daly saying they want to run the ball more. So I think to do that, you want to make sure your primary guy is not necessarily taking a beating and getting some more help. You know, so running the ball doesn't always necessarily mean the main guy doing it all by himself. So I wouldn't be surprised. But to your point, though, I don't think it takes Austin that clear from being drafted as the second or third running back, depending on how you view him off the board.

For me, he's two and dropping him down to like eight or nine. You know, I think he's still in the top five, worst case scenario. And they gave 50, Eckler only had 50% of their rush attempts last year. He only had 49% of their rush attempts the year before. They need to develop other running backs so that it's not such a difference when Austin Eckler comes off the field

and they give the ball to somebody else. But they're already giving a bunch of carries to somebody else. Yeah, I think giving a bunch of carries to somebody else. Yeah, I think. How many touchdowns does that somebody else have? That's the, right. Because that's what would worry me. Right.

The goal line work. He gets, he's been getting all the goal line carries. Eckler. Yeah, last two years. And that was a big change because before 2021, he didn't get a lot of that. Now he is. That's great.

Going into 2021, at the end of a lot of that. Now he is. Going into 2021, at the end of 2020, they were using who the heck was it? The guy from the Dolphins. They were using him. They picked him up and they were using him as their goal linebacker. Oh, Kalen Balazs. Kalen Balazs. I'd be shocked if they do that. I think

Golan Moore is too smart to do that. Okay, if you watched the Pro Bowl yesterday, did you watch Ezekiel Elliott in 2022? Yeah, he tried to get Pollard, had some goal line chances, and it didn't work. And he went back to Zeke. Anyway, what if Zeke follows Kellen Moore to Los Angeles? He's their touchdown guy.

All right, if you watched the Pro Bowl yesterday, Miles Garrett may have dislocated his toe during the Pro Bowl. Oh, no. I watched about a minute because I was looking for the Knicks-Sixers game, and the Pro Bowl was still going on. So I'm not really a Pro Bowl guy, but I guess it was fun. It was the Pro Bowl games. It wasn't the Pro Bowl game. There were lots of fun games. The long snapper was awesome. Okay. They played kick-tack-toe and they had to kick a field

goal or punt or long snap it onto the board. The AFC long snapper got all three X's for the AFC in one. Justin Tucker couldn't hit it, but the long snapper hit it three times in a row. That's pretty cool. It was awesome. A jar of sand is for sale on eBay.

This is for the sand where Tom Brady was sitting when he announced his retirement, supposedly. So you can buy that. Josh Jacobs said he doesn't want to play on the franchise tag. We'll see how that develops. And Super Bowl notes, Andy Reid is optimistic about Kadarius Toney and Juju Smith-Schuster playing. But Mikko Hardman is doubtful. And cornerback Avante Maddox for the Eagles is expected to play in the Super Bowl,

according to Josh Tolentino of the Philadelphia Inquirer. All right, let's get... Oh, here's how we're going to do bounce-back candidates. So, Jamie and Heath both have a big list of bounce-back candidates. Dave, you're going to, instead of giving your bounce-backs, maybe we'll save that for another show. You've seen the Debbie Downer bit on SNL?

Oh, a topical culture reference. Yeah, you see that? I think so. Okay, you're going to be Dave Downer or Davey Downer, whatever you want to be. So I've got to make the case against these bounce back candidates?

Yeah, you're going to pour cold water on them. So every single one of them is going to be like, look at what they did in 2022. Exactly. you want so frustrating you can look at the camera and i'll play and you can give you could be davy downer all right so he's why don't you get started give me another bounce back candidate well we'll just start it off on the right foot i'll say lamar jackson um we just had the same argument that we had last year he was actually until he got hurt a uh basically top five top six fantasy quarterback on a per game basis if you don't count that game where he left early at the

end then he was a top six fantasy quarterback and so he'll definitely he finished around 12th this year on a per game basis he'll definitely bounce back to the top six. And if they come up with a new offensive scheme and actually give him a wide receiver, then he could be in that number one quarterback discussion. If he goes to the Atlanta Falcons and plays with Kyle Pitts and Drake London, he could be in that number one quarterback discussion once again. Dave?

Davey Downer? So just a question about what I'm doing. I don't have to actually believe anything that I say. If I were you, I would make it clear if you believe it or not. That's a different game. People don't assign this opinion to you. But no, your job is to be negative here. So, why is Lamar Jackson not a good bounce back candidate?

Well, the guy hasn't been able to stay healthy each of the past two seasons. He's got this contract squabble with Baltimore. We don't know what their offensive coordinator is going to look like.

And we can talk for days about their receiving core getting healthier. They haven't done dilly-poo to try and make the offense or the wide receivers, at least, really good. When they had a wide receiver who the wide receivers at least really good.

When they had a wide receiver who was capable of at least stretching the field, they traded him to Arizona for a first round pick. So I don't know if there's really enough there or if there will be enough there for Lamar Jackson to be a top five fantasy quarterback ever again, provided he stays healthy enough. Is that what you're looking for? Is that the fake argument that you want from me? Well, is it fake or is it real? What do you think?

You didn't really have a lot of conviction, in my opinion. I don't think you really meant it. No, I don't believe it. I don't believe it. I think that he's absolutely a bounce-back candidate. He's got huge potential because of the rushing. I don't think that's going away. And the next offensive coordinator isn't going to come to Baltimore

and say, we're going to run an offense like the Bears' first four weeks of the season where we just tuck in Lamar Jackson and tell him not to run anymore. Not going to happen. And I think that they'll – not that they'll make a huge splash at wide receiver, but they'll do something to upgrade off of what they had at the end of last year with Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay, and all the other amazing receivers that they had in Baltimore. They'll find somebody else to stretch the field and that'll help. All right, Jamie, how do you feel? Lamar Jackson was the number six quarterback per game

in the first 12 weeks of the season. In weeks one through three, he was incredible. 26 points, 49 points, 47 points. And then after that, he struggled, had only two games after that with more than 20 fantasy points, more than 19 and a half. How do you feel about Lamar Jackson bouncing back? If he gets a contract, I will love it. If he does not get a contract, I will fear it very much because I think he's going to play scared to the level of what Lamar Jackson plays like because he doesn't want to get hurt again. That's a little bit of a different tone than what we talk about with other players after they get paid. Why does Lamar getting paid

help you feel better about him? I think I realize that he's got... He's not taking a non-guaranteed situation. He's asking for Deshaun Watson money, or he's going to hope to get close to it. I don't think a team necessarily, maybe Atlanta does it, but it doesn't sound like Baltimore is going to do it. So I think if he's playing on the franchise tag, I think if he's in this limbo situation again,

even if he may not play, who knows what approach he's going to take, you know, so paid, I will like him non-paid. I will, I will be a little bit scared. Okay. So you're not worried about him getting the bag and then loafing. No, no. I don't really think that applies to quarterbacks very much. I don't. Yeah. I, I think that's maybe applied to just a few guys ever. But I'm more afraid that he doesn't, like he's on a one-year deal again

and then he doesn't want to play through something, which who could blame him? Might have been the case this year. I mean, it kind of sounds like a good business decision. Yeah. All right, Jamie, give me a bounce-back candidate. I'm going to go very deep on this one. I'm going to go Mike Gusecki because I like the fact that he's leaving the Dolphins

and hopefully going to a situation where he can be a playmaking tight end that's used. And, you know, we saw flashes of that at times in Miami prior to this year. And I think he's got the potential to be a good fantasy tight end in the right situation. I was trying to think because i knew you're gonna ask me this where that would be and i don't really have a like clear-cut destination you know like i was thinking the the the chargers they could afford him you know if keenan allen leaves and he goes to a place like that you know with the premier quarterback um but i do think that there's there's plenty of potential here to draft a guy late to take him

if you know this is the kind of guy I think the two guys that I gave you that fall in this category for bounce back candidates would be Elijah Moore and Mike Gusecki for dynasty purposes. Like, go try and trade for them now before things change. You know, Jets get a quarterback. Gusecki signs somewhere where he can be, you know, featured. So for long-term purposes, I think there's opportunities to go get them now. But I think, you know think we'll find out when it

comes to draft process that that's not going to be the case. For Gusecki, for example, I think you could see what the upside for him was if you just go back to some of the games that he played in 2020-2021 and what the potential is there for a guy that came into the league not as

a traditional tight end. He's more of a receiving threat and could do some damage in the right spot. Okay, let's see what Davey Downer has to say. He'll turn 28 in October. He has had opportunities in his five-year career where he's gotten a lot of targets. He does get good catches. His receiving average is pretty meh. When he's been used as just a red zone or a touchdown target,

he doesn't come through in a major way. It would need to take a really good situation for Mike Gesicki to become fantasy relevant again. I'm getting some serious Kobe Fleener vibes from Gesicki, especially after he gets paid after playing on the franchise tag. It will need to be a very, very good spot, and I don't even know if the Chargers would be that spot. I bought that.

I feel like that was legit. That was legit, Dave. The whole time Dave was talking, I was thinking the Chargers are the spot. Like if Gerald Everett and Keenan Allen are gone, they draft a rookie wide receiver, sign Mike Kosicki, and you've got Kellen Moore's tight end tendencies with Justin Herbert's tight end tendencies,

except maybe they all go to one guy now instead of seven tight ends during the season. I could see Gasicki being a top six tight end in Los Angeles. Dave, what do you think? What's your real opinion? I would sign the truth about everything except the Chargers part. I think there would be a chance for him in L.A. to be decent.

Is he worth a late-round pick if he goes to the Chargers? Yes. Okay. Yeah, I mean, it obviously has to be the ideal spot. I don't know, ideal spot. It has to be a good spot. It has to be a good quarterback, good situation, good system, all those things. But it also has to be something where he's not sharing with too many other guys.

Of course. Yeah. And that's why the Chargers could make some decent sense. And that was always the thing with Kosicki. When he was good, it was eight games when Preston Williams got hurt. Remember the Preston Williams season? And then the next

year, I don't know if it was Devontae Parker or if it was Preston Williams again or whatever, but whenever there had been at least two good receiving options, he was basically invisible. But it's also been terrible quarterbacks and terrible systems, too. Terrible quarterbacks and terrible systems? Well, okay, obviously you're not counting

this year. No, this year was a terrible situation. The thing that you heard out of Miami was part of the allure for this offense for Mike McDaniel was to work with Mike Kosecki. And that was before Tyreek Hill.

Yeah, and Mike Kosecki made it clear. Mike McDaniel made it clear it's not an easy offense for a tight end. You got to do a lot of blocking, a lot of different things. So it wasn't a good fit. And that's not him. Real quick before we go to break, I'm going to make the case for Russell Wilson. It's easy. He was really good in 2021,

especially before his injury. First four games of the season, he was on pace for something like 37 touchdowns and no interceptions. He was killing it. He may have been the number one or two quarterback in fantasy during that stretch. Then he got hurt, then he came back,

then he stunk for two games. Absolutely terrible. And his last six or seven games of 2021 were good. He went to Denver. Had the worst season of his career. He's not far removed from being an elite quarterback. We went through this with Tom Brady's last

year with New England. We went through this with Aaron Rodgers three seasons ago. Before he won back-to-back MVPs. No, Russell Wilson's not quite that good, but he still is a Hall of Fame quarterback. So that's an easy case to make for Russell Wilson. Still has a lot of good pieces in place.

As soon as Nathaniel Hackett was fired, he scored 20, it was the last two games of the year, he scored over 20 fantasy points in both of them. 25.6 and 29.1 in the last two games of the season after Hackett was fired. So that's the case, Dave. Give me the Davey downer on Russell Wilson.

34-year-old quarterback coming off of some career lows, including completion rate at 60... Where is it on here? I'm sorry. It's right around 60% on the dot. 60.5. And that is a career low. Thank you. And the question is, will he do

the things that... it's twofold. Will Sean Payton mold his offense to what Russ wants to do? And if he doesn't, will Russ mold his game to what Sean Payton wants to do? Because I'm not sure if those two things are equal. And if they're not it's just going to cause more problems and it's it's hard it's it's especially hard in fantasy to buy into russell wilson when there are so many other quarterbacks that have more upside when you're going to take this guy you might take mike gosicki before you take russell wilson uh let me address

a comment here from captain Spock in our chat. He says, Russ will suck again. His mobility is gone. You know, I guess I didn't even realize he ran for 277 yards in 15 games. He was on pace for 314 yards. That's a little bit different.

That's not just his mobility. I mean, I think the way he moved in the pocket maybe looked a little bit different. His ability to escape and extend plays maybe wasn't as good. But he did. He was on pace for 314 rushing yards. That's really impressive. That's really solid.

So that was way back up, I think, from 2021, that per-game rushing yards. So I want to give that piece of credit to Russell Wilson. Jamie Heath, sorry with you, Jamie. You know, Dave's saying there's so many quarterbacks with more upside. Actually, I don't know if Dave was being legit Dave or Davey Downer there. But why doesn't Russell Wilson still have a lead upside? You know, he's one year removed from being one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy, basically, when he was healthy. The reason I would buy into Russell Wilson is that Sean Payton is not coming out of retirement despite the money

that he's getting paid to tie himself to Russell Wilson if he does not believe he can still play and if Sean Payton believes that he can still play because this is a marriage now that is going to be at least probably two to three years that they have the ability to work together and to make this work at a high enough level that for fantasy, Russell Wilson may not be a top five quarterback, but I think he can still be a top 10 quarterback. There's plenty of weapons in place when you look at the receiving core and the tight end and the running backs and what this offense will be able to produce. There's going to be, as we said last year, and probably didn't really materialize, but because of the division, a lot of shootout

potential for these offenses. And so the fact that Peyton took this job, knowing that A, a team had to give up significant compensation to get him on top of what they're paying him, and B, knowing that you had to work with Russell Wilson. So if you don't think that at 34, what you saw last year is done, I'm going to believe Sean Peyton. I'm going to trust Sean Peyton. I'm going to buy back into Russell Wilson.

I'm not going to go into my fantasy draft wanting to draft Wilson as number one quarterback. He'll be somebody that I settle for, but he'll be right on the cusp of a starter. So he'll be in that two Daniel Jones group of 11, 12, 13, 14 in that range. Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, all those guys. I think there's still plenty to like about Russell Wilson and him bouncing back, I think, is certainly realistic.

Final thought, Heath? Yeah, I think you guys covered it. I don't have anything to add. Okay. Dave, since I don't know how you really feel, more likely that Russell Wilson finishes as a top seven or eight quarterback or, you know, around 15 or around 15. Really? Okay. Easily. You're not, you're not.

I mean, we, we saw Sean Payton sort of sour on drew breeze when breezes career was coming to an end and same thing might be happening to Russ and Sean Payton got paid a lot of money to be the coach of the Broncos. And I'm sure he got assurances that he will be able to eventually pick his next quarterback. It doesn't have to be this year or next year, but eventually he will get a chance to lead this team

with the quarterback of his choice. And after that, if he fails, then maybe they move on from him. But I do not like this marriage. I did the research on it. You can read about it on CBSSports.com. I don't think this is going to end up being great for Russ. Let's take a break. That's going to be great for us.

Catch our breath a little bit for like the one second that we actually take the break on the show. And then we'll be back to talk about more bounce back candidates. We've talked about a lot of quarterbacks so far. Let's talk about DK Metcalf. I want to hear that case for DK Metcalf when we get back on fantasy football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows.

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Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So Heath has DK Metcalf on his bounce back list. And Metcalf was the number 18 receiver in non-PPR, number 13 in full PPR. But on a per game basis, he was not a top 20 wide receiver. And despite leading the NFL in end zone targets he caught only six touchdowns and you know Heath DK Metcalf has been top four in end zone targets in all four of his NFL seasons uh that is pretty wild all right make the case for DK Metcalf to bounce back well I think you look at his like you mentioned the end zone rate in terms of targets He scored seven touchdowns on 100 targets as a rookie,

10 on 129 the next year, 12 on 129 last year, sets a career high with 141 targets last year, and scores a career low six touchdowns. So I think you're going to get a little bit of touchdown regression, but also Tyler Lockett will be on the wrong side of 30. I think Metcalf has a chance for the first time in his career to be the best wide receiver on his own team.

Not the first time in his career, by the way. Let's see, what was he in? 2020, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns. He was the number six, something like that, number six wide receiver in fantasy. All right, Dave, that's the case for DK Metcalf. He's had more targets per game than Lockett each of the last two years,

and the touchdowns will come back. Your case as Davey Downer against the DK bounce back. Are we sure that the touchdowns are going to come back? Because if he had all these opportunities, which he's been getting year after year after year, and he only scores six, it makes me nervous that there's a chance that it doesn't. There's regression there.

I also think that the Seattle passing game undergoes some serious regression. All the other teams in the NFC West and everybody else that Seattle's going to play, they're going to be studying up and ready for Geno Smith. There's got to be a curveball coming that the Seattle offense has that keeps everybody in that offense playing well at a high level. And I don't know if they're really capable of those types of curveballs. We've been waiting for DK Matgap to break out and to be a big-time number one fantasy football receiver.

And he's come close. He's had some really good years. No, it happened. It happened in his second season. I just said. To be the number one guy? He hasn't been that. You don't have to draft him as that, of course.

Well, 83 catches, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns in 16 games. That was good enough to be where? Was that top five? Sixth in PPR on a per-game basis. He was ninth. Couldn't even be top five. Seventh in non-PPR. On a per-game basis.

Okay. How do you really feel, Dave? I think he's got huge potential and he's just never been able to reach it. I do think he's got potential to score more touchdowns. I do worry about year two of the Geno Smith experiment blowing up in Seattle's

face. Alright, so you're pretty accurate with the Davey Downer. Representative of what you really feel. Jamie, DK Metcalf or... I'll give you a guy who actually has a quarterback that we know. I keep going with all these guys. Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins. I have no idea who their quarterbacks are going to be.

Would you go with DK Metcalf? Well, how about Metcalf or Tyler Lockett? Metcalf. There, how about Metcalf or Tyler Lockett? Metcalf. There's more upside there. Metcalf or Jerry Judy? Yep. I was going to ask that. Good one.

Probably we'll take Metcalf. All right. So is Metcalf a guy that we've just overrated? Does he still have another top 10 season left in him? You know, how do we... I think, you know, you look at the playoff game against the 49ers and you say, if he's that guy, like gets fed the ball like that, like, my God, what's the potential?

10 catches, 100... So why haven't they done that? Why aren't they doing that? I mean, he's, you know, when you talk to cornerbacks, he's the type of guy that they love to cover. You know, big physical receivers. Corners love that. You know, they hate guys that just move differently.

And it's funny because he's one of the fastest guys, you know, that play the position still. But they prefer to play big physical receivers. And so that's the type of, you know, when you play man, when you play press man, those are the type of guys that those guys love. So I don't know. I mean, it's probably because there is another good receiver on the field with him.

It's because, you know, he's been stuck in a, you know, run-centric offense, you know, with quarterbacks that, you know, haven't necessarily been the type to pepper their number one guys to that extent. You know, Russell Wilson was never really like that. And, you know, Geno's sort of been hit or miss with that so we'll see how things go in year two with gino that's the direction that's trending which seems to be the case but i think at some point he's going to have that alpha season and you know it's it's always there you know i i know he's you know he could obviously address this better than i can but you know from a guy at those

dynasty rankings he was in the top three and then he's just been on a sliding scale for the last couple of years you know so there's still the potential for him to be in in the top three, and then he's just been on a sliding scale for the last couple of years. So there's still the potential for him to be in the top five based on what his profile is. So feature him a little bit more, and the numbers will show. Yeah, one of my concerns with Metcalf is he's only been great when he has had great quarterback play. I mean, even if you look within seasons, Russell Wilson has had this tendency to have a great first half of a season and then slump. And Metcalf has only really been a great, great, great fantasy wide receiver

when Russell Wilson has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks. But think about some of the trends of the Seattle offenses since Metcalf has been there. And it's been defense struggles for Seattle early. Russ has to save them. Then defense gets figured out because Pete Carroll's a great coach. And they start to play better defense.

And the run game gets going in the second half of the season. That's kind of been what it's been for Seattle the last several years. Yeah, but not this year, though. They became more pass-heavy. First seven games, Geno Smith averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game. Last 10 games, he averaged 35.aged 30.7 pass attempts per game. Last 10 games, he averaged 35.7. Five more pass attempts per game. And in those

last 10 games, DK Metcalf was on pace for 151 targets, 100 catches, but only 1,071 yards and 7 touchdowns. So it just wasn't as productive with Geno Smith as he was with Russell Wilson, which isn't a huge shock, I guess. I mean, there's a lot here.

And then there's just looking, watching DK Metcalf. We see the flashes of him being absolutely unguardable. But we also see these games. And this really holds him back, guys. He usually, the playoff game was a shock to me. He usually really stinks in tough matchups. He was terrible against Denver this year. He was terrible against Arizona twice.

He was bad against Arizona every single time he's faced them in his career, basically. He's not good against Jalen Ramsey, usually. He struggles against good cornerbacks, and there are a lot of those in his division. I don't know. That's me on that. Arizona may change

just because of scheme. Yes. They might, but maybe that holds him back. He has very quiet games. That's me on that. Arizona may change just because of scheme. Yes, they might. But maybe that holds him back. He has very quiet games, and then he has some huge ones. Well, this is the kind of guy that I think he probably loves, end of season versus the ebbs and flows of the year. Maybe. Well, then let's go to another guy.

Let's go to someone from Jamie's list. All right, how about Najee Harris? What's your case for a bounce back from Najee Harris? We talked about that a lot recently that he was tackled at the one seven times. Again, not knowing how many of those he finished, but some unlucky touchdown situations.

I think for him it's going to come down to what's his role in the passing game. If he gets back to being a 45 to 50 catch guy, I don't think he's going to be a 70 game. You know, if he gets back to being a 45 to 50 catch guy, I don't think he's going to be a 70 catch guy again. But if he gets back to being a 45 or 50 catch guy, he's going to be a star. But I think that's where the Steelers go in terms of their offseason and investing in their offensive line is clearly the biggest weakness of their team. And so some more capital thrown in that position,

knowing that the quarterback's going to get better. At least that's the hope. Receiving core is still pretty special. And Najee's still young enough, despite being an older third-year back, that he's going to have the better fantasy season than he had. Again, he may never be the rookie running back that we saw because of how much involved he was, but I still think there's a lot to like about where he can be this year

with, as we saw at the end of the season, how the offense helped him out. You've addressed this, Adam, how the defense played better. You know, TJ Watt was on the field, so that kind of helped his production as well. So I think Najee in the right situation. You know, we've seen him go in round three in a lot of our drafts, in the drafts that we've done lately. And I think that's how we kind of viewed him in the middle of last season was, you know, a round three pick at best.

So if you tell me you're getting that type of player in round three, I'll love that all day long. Dave, David Downer, Najee Harris. Four games last year with more than three receptions. The offensive line was an abomination. They obviously have to try and do something to make that better.

But are we convinced that Kenny Pickett's really going to take a step forward in his second year? Are we convinced that the play calling is going to take a step forward in his second year? Are we convinced that the play calling is going to take a step forward in the second year? And are we sure that Najee Harris isn't anything more than a hyped-up, two-down running back who you're going to need 14 touchdowns from in order to come through with good fantasy numbers? Who is the number 18 running back per game in non-PPR,

number 20 in full PPR? How do you feel about it, Heath Cummings? I almost put him as a bounce-back candidate. I think he probably will be slightly better than 18th. I don't see him bouncing all the way back to what he was as a rookie. I do think what Dave said is mostly right. I think he's just a volume-dependent guy who's probably not going to have a great efficiency year.

I did look. He only had four carries from the one-yard line last year. He scored on two of them. He wasn't tackled on the one on any of them. He lost yards on the other two. But I just think you're probably, if he touches the ball 350 times, then he'll likely be a top-12 running back,

a low-end top-12 guy. But there's a lot of running backs that if they get 350 touches, I would expect them to be better than that. Jamie, how concerned are you about Najee Harris just getting benched? You know, losing his

job because he's not good enough? Very little concern. Really? Yeah. Because I have some concern about that. He hasn't been very good, and he kind of, he did lose a role to Jalen Warren. He lost his third down role. Well, this conversation would obviously change if they drafted somebody in, like, the third round or something.

But, okay. Anybody concerned about Najee Harris just stinking and losing his job? Not – the only way he loses the job is if he really stinks. And this is if the Steelers throw a lot of resources at improving the offensive line, and I think they will. Reports out of Mobile said that Mike Tomlin was spending all of his time looking at the offensive linemen that were there. And there were some good offensive linemen in Mobile at the Senior Bowl, and there are some good offensive linemen in this draft.

So let's just lay out a scenario. Steelers improve their offensive line. Maybe they bring in a veteran. They draft a guy in round one. They really, you know, it looks like it's going to be a strength instead of a weakness. And Najee is still around 3.7 yards per carry. Doesn't come through in goal-to-go situations or and-one situations, yeah, he could get benched.

But that's what it'll take. Trying to figure out if he scored on any of these. Najee Harris scored on any of these carries where he got down to the one. And as of now, I don't think so. But I will try to figure that out. All right, let's do a few more here. Bounce back candidate from Heath. Okay, Mark Andrews.

Let's talk about Mark Andrews, who's on both of your bounce back lists. And let me get my Mark Andrews stats up here. Andrews was the number five tight end in nine, number four in full PPR. He will be 28 years old in September. On a per game basis, Mark Andrews was the number three tight end in nine. Number four in full PPR. He will be 28 years old in September. On a per-game basis, Mark Andrews was the number three tight end in football.

In the first seven games of the season, that was before his week eight injury, he was the number two tight end in football, and he was having a monster year. He was on pace for over 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns. The only reason he was number two is because Travis Kelsey was freaking great. Obviously, he slumped to the finish line. So, Heath, you know, the argument against Andrews, and Dave will make a better one later,

is just that 2021, when you just look at, you know, the back of the baseball card, right, when you look at Mark Andrews' player page, 2021 really stands out as the outlier. And it's also an outlier in terms of Baltimore's pass attempts. But every other year of his career, he's been, well, at least three of the last four since he broke out. He's been on a very run-heavy team, and he just hasn't been able to put up the end-of-year numbers that really make him anything more than maybe like a fourth-round pick. But go ahead, Heath. Yes, very, very good at the position.

Yeah, of course, yes. Yes, I think you look at it, and last year in the games that he and Lamar Jackson both stayed healthy, he averaged 15 fantasy points per game. The year before in the games that he and Lamar Jackson both stayed healthy, he averaged 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game.

I expect as long as Lamar Jackson's there, he's going to be right about 15 fantasy points per game, which would be two and a half better than he was last year, be a point and a half better than anyone else was last year. I expect him to be the number two tight end worth a third round pick. And for people just to have a reference point, what number are you assigning to him? How many points per game? 15. 15. Here's Kelsey over the last six seasons. PPR points per game. 15.7, 18.5, 16.0, 20.8,

16.6, 18.6. So 15 would not quite be Kelsey, but it would be really, really good second round pick, maybe third round pick at worst if you could average 15 points per game. Davey Downer. Why is Mark Andrews not going to be a bounce-back candidate?

Oh, Dave is frozen. Look at that. Oh. Well, Dave was just refusing to participate because... That's really a downer. By the way, Adam, you know they don't make football cards, right? Not real. I mean, they do, but back of the baseball card is the expression, right?

That's the trident. I've got a lot of football cards. Yeah, same here. Everybody but back of the baseball card is the expression, right? That's the trite and true. I've got a lot of football cards. Yeah, same here. Everybody says back of the baseball. Nobody says back of the football card. That's not a thing. You also, Jamie, had Mark Andrews on your bounce back list. I mean, I agree mostly with Heath.

The only thing I would add is, and you brought this up, Adam, in terms of pass attempts, I think if Lamar Jackson is gone, they're going to bring in a quarterback that's probably going to throw the ball a lot more and have a more what you would consider a traditional offense so if that's the case you got to assume that the targets may be a career high for him even better than 2021 so there's that you know flip side of the Lamar Jackson equation if he's gone. So it could be a rookie that would probably be a little frustrating and may not make Mark Andrews the number two tight end and make him worth drafting the third round

and get him to the 15 PPR points per game. But I do think that if you have some semblance of a threat on the outside, because you heard what teams were doing to the Ravens based on what the Ravens were saying and what opponents were saying. You take away Mark Andrews, you take away the passing game. When you have the receiving core that they had, especially at the end of the season, with guys like Sammy Watkins and the group that was there.

So I do think that if Rashad Bateman can develop into something and maybe they add another piece, that's not just a young player that they're trying to develop with a third round pick or a fourth round pick and there is some some capital spent on the wide receiver spot again knowing what this this group looks like but let's just say it's Juju because of how the rumor was that Juju was supposed to go there a few times over the last couple of seasons when he was a free agent so you put Juju there Rashad Bateman there Andrew's there you know it's not just you can can focus on taking Andrews away, and you're talking about maybe another 100 pass attempts to this offense

if it's not Lamar. There's still a path for Mark Andrews to be a pretty good fantasy tenant. All right, last point, though. You know, Heath, I believe you were saying, as a lesson learned, to value continuity. The Ravens might be anything but that, right? I mean, they might have, let's say they bring back Lamar Jackson, but still they're not going to have

the same offensive coordinator that they've had for the last several seasons where Lamar Jackson, you know, had a lot of success. He's going to have to learn a new system. Does that, you have both Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews on this early, early bounce back list and things are going to be a little bit different for them. So how does that factor in?

Yeah, I think like value and continuity doesn't necessarily need to be in everyone's back, but if the head coach, the leading pass catcher and the quarterback are all back, the offensive coordinator is a change and something to watch out for, but wouldn't be as concerning for me as multiple people being gone. And it would depend on who they bring in to, like if they bring in a new offensive coordinator and a wide receiver one,

then I think you have reason to worry about Andrew's targets. Dave, we're going to do one more. Welcome back, Dave. Thank you. One more here. So it'll be from Jamie's list. I'll let you choose. Brandon Cooks, Darren Waller, Terry McLaurin, Darnell Mooney, Matthew Stafford.

Let's talk about McLaurin, Darnell Mooney, Matthew Stafford. Let's talk about McLaurin. Jamie, let's talk about Terry McLaurin as a bounce back. I just think there's too much talent, and I'm curious to see what the offense is going to look like there as well with the quarterback and coordinator to not buy back into what he can be. Obviously, Jahan Dodson's arrival and what we saw last season with the run game sort of, I think, put a bad taste in everybody's mouth with Terry McLaurin

because we're at high expectations for him. But for him, I'm just going to buy into his talent and playmaking ability, still being the number one receiver there for however long that lasts. I don't think Dotson is taking him out of that role. So at a discounted price for where McLaurin should probably go this year,

I'm going to buy back into him in a big way. He was the number 22 wide receiver per game in non-PPR. McLaurin was number 26 in full PPR. And I feel like, just off the top of my head, he's kind of lived in that range throughout his career. I think he's at a career high this year in yards. 1,191. Wouldn't be a surprise if he played 17 games.

Dave, Davey Downer, welcome back. Make the case against him. I have McLaurin on my Dynasty team. He's been a joy to have on a fantasy roster, but 13.5 PPR points per game last year, 12.2 the year before that.

We don't know who his quarterback's going to be. Not sure who the play caller's going to be. We don't know what this offense is going to end up looking like. And I'm not sure that he's the best receiver on this Washington Commanders offense. He could still be a 1B and just imagine how wonderful that would be if the 1A, even if he's the 1A, McLaurin's the 1A, Dotson's the 1B, whatever. They still need that piece at under center. They need a great quarterback. I don't think that they're going to end up getting somebody that they're going to be truly happy with who will elevate both of these wide receivers to be excellent. I'm going to try and get McLaurin at a value on draft day. If other people buy into him as a bounce back candidate,

crossing their fingers that he's going to get 15 PPR points per game, I think I'm going to let them do that. I think he's a good player. I just think he's stuck in a bad spot. Okay. Anything else to add him? Dave, that felt legit, Davey Downer. That felt like legit Dave Richard. It was legit. Okay.

Heath, top 20 receiver next year? Terry McLaurin? No. No. Jamie, top 20. Right around there. Okay. We'll see what the,

uh, the rookie class was up. And he doesn't have an offensive coordinator yet either. Right. And they're still waiting to hire a quarterback. Yeah. So a lot to be determined. Uh,

yeah. Just why can't he score more touchdowns? The guy gets so few targets near the end zone. That's always something that could change. But let's see. That's touchdowns year by year. 7, 4, 5, and 5. That's 21 touchdowns in 63 games.

Nothing special there. Yeah. They haven't had a lot of pass touchdowns, have they? I know in 2021, they only had 21 touchdowns. They haven't had a lot of good quarterbacks. No, it's a DJ Moore type of argument, right? DJ Moore's been on a team that's

thrown 17 or fewer touchdown passes four straight years, and he actually broke through a little bit. What did he have, seven or eight touchdown catches, DJ Moore, this year? He did. The Commanders threw 24 touchdowns, which isn't terrible, and McLaurin had five. Jahan Dotson had seven.

Curtis Samuel had four touchdown catches. Right, but think about what you have to put up as a receiver in terms of catches and yards to overcome a low touchdown total. It's hard to be really good for fantasy if you're not scoring that many touchdowns. All righty, folks. That's the first of our five episodes this week. We're going to have Dan Schneier on this week.

We're going to have Chris Towers on this week. We'll see if we can get Mike McClure on for some DFS, although we do have a Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast. You can just listen to that. As the week gets a little bit closer to Sunday, we'll talk more about the Super Bowl. We'll give you a big preview on Friday, talk about some betting nuggets and things like that,

and hopefully get a better idea, although you know the coaches aren't going to be honest or anything like that, hopefully get a better idea of how Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are progressing as we have two injured quarterbacks going into this game, which kind of stinks, but still we can't wait. We're looking forward to it. And of course, we'll help you decide pizza or wings, and the answer is always both. So for Dave, Heath and Jamie, I am Adam. We'll talk to you tomorrow with another edition

of Fantasy Football Today. Thanks a lot, everybody. Have a good one.