Fantasy Football Today - Brady Retires; TE Reflection (02/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 1, 2022

It's official, Tom Brady has retired. We react to the news and discuss what it means for the Bucs ... The TE talk starts at the top with a Travis Kelce vs. Mark Andrews debate (7:30). You won't believe the splits for Andrews with and without Lamar Jackson. Also, can Kyle Pitts become the top TE this season, or will Matt Ryan hold him back (16:50)? We also discuss some emerging TE trends (26:26), the next tier at TE after the Top 5 are off the board (29:50) and give sleepers, breakouts and busts (33:55) ... A listener assigns Star Wars characters to every member of our show (41:30) and we catch you up on news and notes (44:40) and wonder if the Bengals should use the Rams locker room or just stick with the visitor's locker room ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. We've got big news to start the show. It is official. Tom Brady is retiring from the NFL after a pretty decent career. Also, update from yesterday, it turns out the Rams and Bengals are playing in the Super Bowl. Just in case you heard yesterday's show. Adam, Jamie, and Dave here to talk about Star Wars and football and tight ends

and Tom Brady. How many number one finishes did Tom Brady have in his career? QB one. What do you think? I guess. What is it? TB 12.

It did not have 12. I think it's low. I'll say 3. I'll say 6. I have him at 1. At 2. At 2. At 2.

Yeah, 2 number 1 finishes. 2007 and... 2007, 8, 9, and 2010, it appears. Plus, he finished QB2 1, two, three, four times, and QB3 twice. So that would be eight top three finishes in his illustrious career. Not bad. Not bad.

Yeah. So, what do you guys think? You gonna miss him? Yeah, of course. I mean, I've never not ranked Tom Brady. I mean, that's a pretty crazy thing that i've never gone into a season without putting tom brady in my rankings um so yeah it's gonna be it's gonna be interesting if i'm the bucks i'm doing everything i can to get russell wilson or

aaron rogers uh maybe not in that order um you know try and get one of those guys to come because you still have a championship roster certainly on the defensive side of the ball a very good offensive line. Mike Evans, we'll see what happens. Most likely we're going to do a Gronk podcast probably soon as well if he stays true to his word. But if you can find a way to get Aaron Rodgers and Devontae Adams to Tampa Bay, that would be, I think, a fun situation

to keep that team relevant. But obviously, yeah, you knew it was coming. 44 years old, going to be 45. 22 years in the league. Greatest quarterback ever. Maybe the greatest player ever. So good luck to him in his retirement. And thanks for all the memories.

Twenty two seasons for Tom Brady. And yeah, all the Super Bowls, five times Super Bowl MVP, which is amazing. And just destroying everybody in basically every category, in the postseason anyway. Postseason wins and yards and all those things. The best football player ever. The most accomplished for sure. Dave, fantasy impact. We talked about it a couple of weeks ago, you know, when the

Bucs were eliminated. What would they be without Tom Brady? And the last time they didn't have Tom Brady, Chris Godwin was the number two wide receiver in fantasy. Mike Evans missed some games, but I think he was number four or five per game. So they had two top five wide receivers. Jameis Winston led the league in passing. So, you know, what are your initial thoughts on the Buccaneers without Brady? You've got to imagine that unless they do make a huge splash, a quarterback with Aaron Rogers or Russell Wilson, uh, it's going to be a big step back for them across the board. And I want to, you know, we heard Aaron Rogers talk about, he didn't want to be a part of a rebuild. Does Bruce Arians want to be a part of a rebuild? And if area he's talked like he's sticking around in Tampa and even said, he'll call the plays if Byron left, which leaves. But I wonder if they whiff on Rodgers, they whiff on Wilson, and there isn't another quarterback that they really get that they can put up.

Sure, maybe they whiff on Watson too. Does Aarons even stick around? And if he's gone, what is this offense going to be? Is it going to be just as aggressive as it was when he was there with Brady for two years, with Jameis for certainly that last year that Winston was there? I think you absolutely have to downgrade everybody that's there at this point. And who's left?

Evans, we know for sure, will be there. Another player, Godwin, could be franchise tagged. Sure, he could stay. They could also just let him go. Who knows? I saw a graphic on another website where they put Godwin in an Eagles uniform. Looked weird. It was jarring for a second.

Never seen that before. Gronk probably not going to be around. The running game. Who's left? Keyshawn Vaughn? There's just so many possible empty spots there for the bucks that i just i don't know if it's fair to say that it's that anybody is going to be a great fantasy option other than evans who has this string of thousand yard games and might just be okay if they do end up doing the rebuild route

with a mediocre quarterback who's a little young and they're trying to just get going yeah i think it will be it will be though, to see who they do bring in if it's not one of the premier guys, if it's not a Rodgers, a Wilson, a Watson, if there's not an aggressive trade, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo, for example, maybe Derek Carr, you know, if Josh McDaniels isn't sold on him and there's good compensation in return. But if it's one of these guys like, and I know this is going to sound ugly, but, you know but Marcus Mariota

or Mitchell Trubisky or Jameis Winston, at least as we've seen there, Jameis, at least you know what you're getting. But whoever that guy is, is going to have some sleeper appeal because of Bruce Arians and because of what they'll probably still put around that guy. So it's not going to be Brady. It's not going to be somebody that you're going to say, okay, must start fantasy quarterback, but certainly somebody that if you pair a Trey Lance or a Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence, some of these, one of these second-year quarterbacks or Tua or somebody, you can sort of go the combo route. There's probably still going to be a lot of upside because of what Bruce Arians does.

I mean, we didn't think Jameis, or at least we've seen it play out, Jameis, and the mistakes that he's made there and what he was in the early part of his career. Bruce Arians turned him into a 5,000-yard passer. So there's still a lot to like about Bruce Arians and what he'll do for that quarterback. But yes, as Dave said, it is going to be a downgrade for what the next quarterback is unless it is one of these elite-level guys. And how about just a little bit more food for thought here

with the quarterback position? Because if Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, they miss on those three guys, here are some other quarterbacks that aren't free agents but might be available. Garoppolo would top the list. I don't think that makes anybody in Tampa Bay really excited. Kirk Cousins would be an expensive

option if the Vikings want to move on from him. Gardner Minshew, Carson Wentz, I think those guys can be had. I think Sam Darnold, if they want to make an intra-division trade, could be had. These are not necessarily the best guys that I would love to have for Mike Evans. I guess Kirk Cousins would be an exception to that. But I definitely, I had Mike Evans ranked very high coming into 2022, but it was with the assumption Brady was back. Brown wasn't there.

Godwin, who knows? That's going to change. I don't know if he's going to be a top 12 receiver now. Okay. Lots to be determined in Tampa Bay. Things are going to look very different. You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers. Simply say, Alexa, play the latest episode

of the Fantasy Football Today podcast, or, hey, Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast, or hey, Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Whichever service you have, you can listen to us on your smart speaker. Going to turn our attention now to the tight end position, what we saw in 2021, what we learned. And really, the big question starts at the top. Travis Kelsey or Mark Andrews?

Jamie, who's it going to be? As I told you on Monday's show, you know, I'm torn because I do think that, you know, the lull in the middle of the season when the Chiefs were trying to figure out the way teams were playing them and how the struggle was for everybody there, essentially. Thankfully, Andy Reid got through that, and you saw the production at the end of the season, certainly the postseason run for Kelsey was amazing.

As he said, it's worth noting that, you know, at some point he's going to fall off a cliff. It happens to, you know, almost all the best skilled position players. You know, obviously Tom Brady proved that wrong. But the skilled position players, when they go, they go, and they go fast. And, you know, Kelsey at some point is going to hit that wall and it's not going to be the same. They're going to be, you know, maybe an injury that happens

or maybe a situation that arises that he's just not as great. And the steady decline might be happening, you know, before I've seen, we're just not recognizing it enough. But I still think it's just too hard to overlook what he gives you consistently year in, year out in this offense with that quarterback, with that coach. And so even though I had Andrews ranked one at the end of the season, I'm probably going to go back to Kelsey by the time we get talking.

Oh, all right, Dave, you're on Kelsey, right? I've been on Kelsey and one of my new year's resolutions for fantasy was to not draft old players. But I, I think I have to break this one with Kelsey just because of how consistent he's been. And Jamie talked about how we're looking for signs or maybe something to show us. Maybe we're not seeing it.

Well, of course we're not seeing it. Have you looked how he's played in the playoffs? He's been outstanding. Just an unbelievable part of this Kansas City offense that isn't going to change, that isn't necessarily going to add a big piece at wide receiver that could limit his type of target potential going into 2022. And I think we can still bank on him being a very, very good fantasy tight end. He averaged 15.8 PPR points per game

last year. That's low for him. It's down four and a half points per game from what he did in 2020. But I still see him as one of the best at his position. Here's the other cool thing about it. Last year, in all of our mocks, Kelsey was going as a late first-round pick. I don't think he'll go as a first-round pick in 2022. I think you're going to be able to get him in round two, and he's going to go closer to Andrews, so I think that it's a close call between those two, but I could see Baltimore adding another piece to their passing game, and I could see that piece potentially affecting Andrews more than any piece that would be added to Kansas city.

So for now I have Kelsey at one and Andrews at two. Okay. And if you look at where the Ravens ranked in past attempts, the last three seasons with Lamar Jackson as their quarterback, and this is a big, big piece of this 32nd, 32nd and ninth last year, when they lost their two running backs in the preseason

and they had a terrible defense. Their defensive rank the last four seasons, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, and 19th. It wasn't terrible the entire year, but toward the end of the year, it was pretty terrible. But, you know, two things to keep in mind with the Ravens is they're going to run the ball better next year, and what's their defense going to be like?

We'll have to wait and see on that. But I want to get your guys' thoughts on these splits. These are incredible. He played 11 games with Lamar Jackson. Now, I'm not counting one game Lamar Jackson threw four passes. So that one's going in the non-Lamar Jackson. Well, it makes sense, right? 11 games.

I'm going to give you his 17-game pace in both 11 games with Lamar and six games without. All right, here's 11 with. 17-game pace, 87 catches, 1,141 yards, eight touchdowns on 136 targets. A 23.2% target share. How about his 17-game pace in his six games without Lamar Jackson? Well, it goes from 87 catches. This is insane. 87 catches was his pace with Jackson. 145 catches.

1,765 yards. So over 100 yards a game. On pace for 11 touchdowns and 184 targets. So nearly 11 targets per game and a 29.4% target share. Mostly Huntley, but also

Johnson, he was just better when those guys played. I don't know what that's all about. The target share was much higher. It also coincided a know a little bit with marquise brown slumping but even when marcus was the reason marquise brown slumping they weren't throwing the ball they were throwing in the ball though they just were throwing the

ball much to andrews at a much higher clip than lamar jackson was easier target and i'll tell you what and i saw i wish i remembered it exactly i wish i could find it but rich rebar dug into this a little bit. And what he, what I remember him tweeting again, maybe you can look this up, Dave was that Huntley and Johnson were actually more accurate than Lamar Jackson on short and maybe intermediate throws. And they were a better fit for Mark Andrews than Lamar Jackson was. And Lamar Jackson actually ended up being one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in football last year, but that had a lot to do with how far down the field he was throwing. But he was throwing the ball.

I think he led the league in air yards per pass attempt, Lamar Jackson. But anyway, I just thought that was really interesting. He really benefited from the loss of Lamar Jackson. So I don't know if that's going to carry over to next year, Jamie, but what do you think about it? What I'm saying is the Ravens should not pay Lamar Jackson. They should go with Huntley and Johnson as their quarterbacks.

And Mark Andrews will be the best player ever in the history of football. Well, I also think they lost a lot of those games. So, yeah, they probably get back to their roots a little bit more, but their defense obviously was a big part of the losing too. Well, it's also, I mean, you said it, the run game I think is almost bigger than that because of what they lost and what they didn't have. So, while davante freeman latavius murray and for whatever it was in the beginning of season tyson williams provided them that's not jk dobbins and gus edwards and so

it put a lot more on lamar jackson on huntley on josh johnson uh put their defense on the field a lot more because they were having a lot of three and outs and turn the ball over and so now you're putting you know all those things back in place I'm going to guess they probably invest in their offensive line. You know, the one, you know, Dave mentioned the receiver change. The one change that we'll probably see is a Sammy Watkins replacement because I don't expect him to come back, which is going to be good for Rashad Bateman, still going to be great for Marquise Brown,

and obviously great for Mark Andrews. And so you know what the top three pass catchers are most likely going to be. I don't think they make a splash at the receiver spot. So Andrews is just safe. You safe. I think he's kind of put himself going from the fourth option to the second option. So, he's leapfrogged Darren Waller and George Kittle. He should be ahead of Kyle Pitts. He's closer to Kelsey, if not ahead of Kelsey, if you want to go that route. I have no problem with that. The best thing about Andrews, I think, is going to be

if you want a top two tight end he'll probably go toward the back end of round two whereas kelsey as we saw at least in our two drafts as we talked about on monday adam uh went 15th and 16th ppr and half ppr so um dave's right he's probably not going to go in the first round but i don't think he's getting past the first 15 picks for the most part. One last time, Adam. The 16 or 17 game pace, rather, for Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews? That would be... 87,040-something, right? 87 catches, 1,141 yards,

eight touchdowns on 136 targets. It's almost dead on for what Travis Kelsey had in 16 games this year, which was an average of 15 PPR points per game. That is interesting, but that's a 17 game pace compared to 16 games. It's just a matter of if you're just looking at these two guys

is one ascending and the other descending. And that's the question you have to ask yourself. Is Andrew is going to do this year over year? Like, you know, me, look, we've seen it. You know, it was wrong taking over from Gonzalez. It was Kelsey taking over from Gronk. You know, there's the passing of the torch, you know, from, you know, one great tight end to the next and can,

can Andrews do it consistently or, and this is not a knock on him, or is he Jimmy Graham? You know, is he going to be just the second best guy of the top two guys? You know, we, we just haven't, you know, Kittle got close to Kelsey. He just didn't pass him. Waller got close to Kelsey, just didn't pass him. You know, and I'm saying, you know, over span, you know, there was, you know, a couple of years for both those guys where they were right there with Kelsey, you know, just in

terms of being the best that year that it was Kelsey, Kittle and Ertz, you know, the record breaking season that those three guys had was fantastic. It's just a matter of now now can Andrews be that guy, but be that guy for a couple of seasons. And that's the question, you know, you have to ask yourself, is this the start of Andrews or is this just a great season for Andrews that will put him in the top three, top two, you know, maybe number one. Right.

Or pass Kelsey and Kelsey is now going to start to fade. Or do you end up with a year like Andrews had in 2020 where he averaged just under 12 PPR points per game, which is still great for a tight end, just not for a tight end that you take in round two. Yeah, it's all about targets. He basically, what you like about Andrews is that he didn't, well, a lot of things,

but he didn't do anything that's unsustainable statistically. It's not like his catch rate, his yards per target, his touchdown rate, it's not like everything went nuts. It's just he got targeted a lot more, and they threw the ball a lot more than they ever had per game. Obviously, they played an extra game. But like I said, they were 32nd in passing two straight years, and then they were ninth in pass attempts.

They're not going back to that, but they're not going to be ninth. All right. But you just went on a whole thing about Mark Andrews. Is he the next? Blah, blah, blah. Could you have the same discussion and just take away Mark Andrews and insert Kyle Pitts? Does Kyle Pitts have the potential to unseat Travis Kelsey? Absolutely, but he's probably not going to do it with this quarterback

because as we've seen, Matt Ryan is allergic to throwing touchdowns to his top guys to the level that you need it to be've seen, Matt Ryan is allergic throwing touchdowns to his top guys, you know, to the level that you need it to be, you know, now can he get to eight touchdowns? Like, you know, you just said with what Andrew's pace is. Absolutely. You know, we, we, you know, Julio Jones, Roddy white, you know, those guys lived basically at eight touchdowns. You know, you could just pencil in every year. Okay.

Julio Jones is going to have 1500 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. You know, it was just kind of tried and true um can pitts be that guy yes for sure and the second year is when we see these elite level guys take that leap and so it's worth buying into he's my third tight end and it's uh it's not so far off from where kelsey and andrews should be drafted but i think he's going to go in round three and so uh you know calvin ridley hopefully back with the falcons uh that's something we have to keep an eye on. If Ridley is gone, they're clearly going to have to address the receiver position.

Russell Gage is a free agent, you know, so they have a lot of decisions to make there. But, you know, you have Arthur Smith. Where's his history? He was a tight ends coach previously. So those guys always tend to matter in that regard. I'm sure that factored into the draft drafting of Kyle Pitts. But, you know, you saw it last year. You know, we're going to say he was a fantasy bust because he didn't score

touchdowns and didn't finish to where he was drafted. He didn't live up to that. But as a rookie tight end in the NFL, based on what that position has typically meant and what he did, great season to start his career. And so the expectations were just a little out of control and they might be out of control again this year because of you know i'm not going to be the only one saying this by far um he's he's got that potential to take that leap and to be in that conversation i don't think he passes kelsey i don't think he passes andrews but it would not shock me in any way shape or form i think he could i think he could do it and we talked about targets and what that meant for andrews and what it's meant for kelsey for all these years not to mention waller and kittle. We'll talk about that when we get to them. He had six and a

half targets per game as a rookie. That's low. And I would expect that number to go up. I'm counting on Calvin Ridley not being on the Falcons next year. I'm counting on Atlanta bringing in a young receiver to help try and take some coverage away from Kyle Pitts. And I'm hoping that another offseason will give Arthur Smith plenty of time to come up with fresh ideas on how to scheme Kyle Pitts open in the red zone. I think he can be a top three, top two fantasy tight end with Matt Ryan at quarterback. But I think he needs to be saturated in targets.

He needs to be in that eight-plus target per game range, which is rarefied error for tight ends. Andrews did it last year. Obviously, Kelsey did it last year. Obviously, I don't know if there's another guy that did. There's Gronk. He averaged 7.4 targets per game. There is one more, 8.45 targets per game for Darren Waller when he played. So of course you would expect to see something like that for Waller. I think pits, I think you count on pits getting the eight targets per game and you draft accordingly. And I have a hard time believing that at eight targets per game, he does not finish as a top three fantasy tight end, which is why like Jamie, I've got him third. Okay. He Kyle pits led all tight ends in yards per catch and was third at tight end in yards per target

behind Dallas Goddard, actually, who was number one, and George Kittle, who was number two. You know, Dave, when you're sitting here talking tight ends, you want to crack open a beer? I know you're reaching for a Miller Lite. Miller Lite has always been a great tasting light beer for people who love beer. So what do you think?

Are you going to sit down and watch a little hoops tomorrow night? A little signing day coverage? Well, sure, we could definitely do that. But what do you think I was doing on Sunday? During the conference championship games. Two awesome games. Two three-point games. And it's been a few weeks since I've been watching football in the office.

I've been watching at home. I've got a nice big TV at home. I've got a pretty little wife who loves football who sits next to me. And she and I cracked open a couple of Miller Lights and just sat back and enjoyed football. It was unpredictable football. The Bengals winning. I don't think a lot of people saw that coming. The Rams and Niners having a close game.

I think a lot of people saw that coming. But what isn't unpredictable is Miller Light. It's always good and clean and crisp and just the perfect chillaxing type of beer. Since 1975, Miller Lite has been the beer with a taste you can depend on. No games, no gimmicks, just a great beer for people who like beer.

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Miller Brewing Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. 96 calories and 3.2 carbs for 12 ounces. You know, I keep forgetting to say this. I just want to say it before we get back into tight ends. I think if we get a great Super Bowl, Which we will. Yeah, hopefully. One possession.

I mean, I don't think it's going to be as good as Super Bowl 55 and a half, but it'll be good. I think that there's going to be some type of argument to be made that this has been one of the all-time great NFL seasons. I remember on Red Zone in week 18, they had mentioned we had the most walk-off wins this year in something like 40 years.

I love the unpredictability. I love that it's Rams-Bengals. I love... The lowest season Super Bowl ever. Really? Two fours. I'm not sure I'd love that every year, but I love the upheaval this year. It was great to see

and we had so many exciting games and so many exciting finishes and the playoffs first round sucked but the last two rounds have been unbeatable how many three-point games were there i think almost every every game in the last two weeks bills were not oh chief's bills was overtime okay right so all four games ended on the last play, which, you know what I mean. We were one on the last play in the divisional round. In the divisional playoffs, yep. And then that happened with one of the two games,

and the other one was a three-point game in the championship round. Thrillers. It's been amazing, and I think there'll be some type of metric that comes out putting this season. I really believe it's been one of the best years. You know what the Bengals' odds were to get to the Super Bowl?

Yeah. When? At preseason? Yep. I read it, but I already forgot. I remember sitting in our studio talking about who we thought was going to make the playoffs, and no one said Cincinnati then. What were the odds?

It's got to be 75-1. Oh, to make the playoffs? No, Pete's been on that. But to go to the Super Bowl, 75-1? Super Bowl, no. But playoffs, yes. He said the playoffs. To win the Super Bowl or to go?

To go to the Super Bowl, the odds were 75-1. To go to the Super Bowl? Yes. That sounds high. Not to win the Super Bowl. So that means to win the Super Bowl must have been 150-1. All right. Back to tight ends.

They won two games two years ago. They won more games in the playoffs than they did two years ago. Yeah, they have made the best, the fastest, worst to Super Bowl turnaround ever. Or maybe if they win the Super Bowl, it will be the fastest ever. From first pick in the draft to the Super Bowl. Where were the Rams in 1998? I just read that yesterday.

If the Bengals win, and even if they don't, there's going to be all kinds of conversations about how important is offensive line play, how important is the secondary. Cincinnati, the way they've gotten here with the team that they have, no one thought that

they could do it no one I don't know how many people thought they'd even make the playoffs like we talked about Pete Prisco obviously did but just their offensive line on paper looks so bad their defense on paper really felt underwhelming and yet here they are there's an article I wonder I wonder what player on the Bengals makes the biggest difference. There's an article, one of those fan nation articles, so I don't really know exactly what to make of it, but on SI.com about how they slowed down the Chiefs offense. And a lot of it's probably accurate because they use statistics.

They dropped back in coverage, I think with eight defenders, more than any other game this year. But also, it was just talking about the way they built their team. They preferred depth at defensive back rather than having an elite corner. They like linebackers who can cover. They played a coverage linebacker more in this game than maybe they had all season. Morgan Wilson had a phenomenal season.

So they did a lot of really cool things, if you want to read about it. That's why their defensive coordinator is getting some head coaching buzz. But they seem to be a pretty innovative franchise, and they are overcoming a terrible offensive line. Can they do it one more week? That'll be the question.

All right, guys, let's focus. Sorry, tight ends. Some observations. You want the ADP, though, first? Of what? Tight ends from last observations. You want the ADP, though, first? Of what? Tight ends from last year? No, that's okay. Because we get into ADP a little bit.

I just looked this up, and then we can talk tight ends. They played just more than 50% of their snaps in cover four or cover six against Kansas City. Really, one of those situations where they did dare them to run. I think a lot of it was in the second half. Yes. Once again, the top five tight ends

were all either first or second on their team and targets. The exception would be on a per game basis. Rob Gronkowski was not, he was third in targets, but the top five tight ends, including Zach Ertz, who was second in on the Eagles in targets in his tenure there, and then he was first in targets with the Cardinals in those games. So that's always something you want to look at, first or second on the team in targets. Almost every top five tight end fits that category. How about the last two years of tight ends?

Mark Andrews this past year scored 90 more PPR fantasy points than tight end three, Dalton Schultz. I mean, he crushed him. The year before, you compare tight end one to tight end three, Travis Kelsey scored 136 more points than Robert Tunyon. But the previous four seasons, when Travis Kelsey was number one, the difference between tight end one and tight end three was 34, 40, 31, and 16 PPR fantasy points. So it was pretty close between tight end one and tight end three.

The last two years we've had tight end one destroying everybody, tight end two destroying everybody but tight end one basically, tight end three way behind. Not per game necessarily, but I thought that was interesting. And how about this? Jamie, give me your thoughts on this stat. Over the last four seasons, 50% of the tight ends Thought that was interesting. And how about this? Jamie, give me your thoughts on this stat. Over the last four seasons,

50% of the tight ends who have finished top five in PPR have been drafted in round 12 or later, including Zach Ertz and Dalton Schultz this year. So half of the 20 tight ends who have finished top five in PPR the last four seasons were drafted round 12 or later. Isn't that weird? It is weird. I guess just go back to the question we got yesterday about us doing a better job of draft prep.

All the tight ends I'm going to recommend are going to be around 12 or later. I mean, you just think about the last two seasons with Robert Tunyon and Logan Thomas and this season with Dalton Schultz and I guess who would be next? Ertz.

Ertz, yeah. You think about how that unfolded for Schultz. It was, I don't know if it was the Gallup injury opening things up for him right away and then they just couldn't go away from him. Jarwin getting hurt also. Ertz, we know. So yeah, it's just

I think one of those scenarios where if you don't, it's great or late. Again, same thing. If you don't get one of the top five guys, I think, then you just kind of maybe punt the position. Now, I do think when we get to the conversation about who's going to be 6-10,

for example, if Schultz stays in Dallas, Goddard, depending on where Ertz goes, Hawkinson, you know, those four guys, I think, are going to kind of shape the position. And then you get past that, and then it's Noah Fant, depending on who the quarterback is. And is Gronk still there, you know, and who's his quarterback, you know? So Knox and Fryermuth, as we talked about when the Bills were eliminated,

you know, just the touchdown potential of Knox in particular, but also Fryermuth, as we talked about when the Bills were eliminating, you know, just the touchdown potential of Knox in particular, but also Fryermuth. So, yeah, it's going to be top-heavy again. It's just a matter of can those guys deliver the top? You know, we're getting a little bit more of a robust group here where at least, you know, Pitt's getting into the top five and Andrew's doing what he's doing or doing what he did. You know, that mix, the, that, that

mix of the last couple of seasons of tight ends, you know, four, five, and six look a little bit better now when you're talking about Waller Kittle and, you know, being in that group. And Dave, you know, the Jamie said tight ends, four, five, six. But if you look at rounds, four, five, six, that's, that is a risky area to be drafting tight ends. And how many are you going to go before that? Probably five, right? Probably all five of them are going to be off.

Nah, maybe not. I don't think five are going to go. All five tight ends will be drafted in the first three rounds. In the first three rounds? Maybe round four for Kittle, but that's going to be a rare exception. Yeah, I think you can get some bleeding in the early round four. That's going to be a big change from what we I think you can get some bleeding in the early round four. That's going to be a big change from what we've seen in the past

because usually that second group is round four, five, six, and usually it's a lot of really bad picks in there. And again, it was two of the three did not pan out. Kyle Pitts, even though he had a great season, he didn't pan out. And TJ Hawkinson, who was actually seventh per game in PPR, but not even close to that in non. But then again, Mark Andrews was in that range too. So maybe the draft board will just look a little bit different, Dave.

Maybe we just will have a gap. I don't know if anyone's going to go in those rounds really, you know, after those first five. There's no chance that they're getting past round four. Correct. And in the two mocks that we did, the fifth tight end was taken at 37th overall and 36th overall. But is there going to be anyone in that 50th pick range,

rounds five and six, let's say? Goddard. You think so? Goddard will be in there and Hawkinson will be in there. I do think there is a chance. It's probably a mistake, but there is a chance. Depending on what the Broncos have to send to the Packers, if there is a trade, that Fant, if he's with Aaron Rodgers,

does get pushed into that range because of people like us, not necessarily us on this show, but people in the industry. No offense, time is coming. It's going to be, if there's some way, it's Rodgers, they lose Judy, and it's the two outside guys and Fant, because you've heard some compensation about, you know, Judy being part of a package to go to Green Bay and they don't get Devante Adams. So if it's just,

you know, Sutton, Patrick, Fant, Rodgers is there. Whoever else is the third receiver that they bring in, maybe it's just KJ Hamler. Then you're going to hear a lot of, well, Fant is going to be the guy. He's going to be the inside guy. He's going to be the one they lean on, blah, blah, blah. There's a chance he gets into that group, but I think he's still probably closer to 10 than he is to 5, so it's most likely it's going to be Goddard and Hawkins. But we could see that

stock rise if that scenario, that exact scenario happens where there's no Devontae Adams and there's no Jerry Jude either, meaning that middle of the field is open for Noah Fant. People are going to be excited. And the other thing that I'll point out is that Noah Fant struggled with the last coaching staff that was there, which was a little bit of a surprise, because Pat Shermer usually does like to utilize his tight ends a little bit more. I think it's a combination of the quarterbacks that played on

top of him just not being trusted near the red zone. We'll see what happens with the new coaching staff there. He could end up being one of those. What's the quarterback that matters more than the coaching staff? I think so, too, but well, listen, in this case, the quarterback matters more because it's Aaron Rodgers. But if it was a different quarterback going to Denver,

then I think the coaching staff would definitely have more of a say about who the number one guy, who the number one read is, who the number two read is when they get closer to the end zone. I don't know why it wasn't Fant more often, but that's the way it was in Denver for the past two seasons. Well, what if Dalton Schultz is re-signed by the cowboys this was the number three tight end and he had a really good year i'm excited i'm excited about him for sure i would i would look at him as definitely closer to a top six tight end maybe the next best guy after the first five because he i just think he's

ingrained at this point as a huge part of what the Cowboys offense is. He's tied for second in the team leading targets last year. I don't see him. I don't see him backing down. Right. Gallup is gone. You're hearing rumors about Amari Cooper may be being gone.

You know, the, the, the report out there that they can use a franchise tag on Schultz. They clearly like him. And so he's, he's a safe option. If he stays, he is probably a bus candidate if he

leaves because there's not going to be a situation i think where he goes somewhere that he's going to have this type of opportunity and produce like this we just see it time and time again okay let's do some sleepers breakouts and busts dave give me an early sleeper i gave you three on fft and five the one i'll give you now is going to be Brevin Jordan in Houston. More of a receiver than a blocking type of tight end. Don't really know who that number two target is going to be in Houston's passing game. We assume if Brandon Cooks is there, he'll be number one. Jordan can take the next step, whether it's with Davis Mills or a better quarterback than Davis Mills.

I think that he could take a leap and he's one of those late round pick guys that you can get some decent production from. Brevin Jordan, once upon a time, in the spirit of signing day, was the number one tight end recruit in the country. He's small, though. That's why he fell to the fifth round. He's 6'2". Very small for a tight end, but as Dave said, more of a receiver. Jamie,

give me your early sleeper. Let's see. I guess that's how far I'm going to qualify, based on how our drafts have gone didn't do your homework last night huh didn't do your homework no uh i'll go pat fryman i think he's still you know we gotta see the quarterback is there in pittsburgh but uh he'll get better in year two and a good late run option. All right, Dave, give me an early breakout,

an early breakout for 2022. I don't know if Dan Arnold's really going to stick in Jacksonville, but when he did play, he was their most productive tight end. Again, somebody who's more receiver than tight end when he plays and someone that Trevor Lawrence did lean on a little bit. I could see him having a very nice year. first full season in jacksonville new coaching staff hopefully

a better offense tailored to trevor lawrence and he plays a lot with uh with the jacksonville offense hopefully that happens jamie have a breakout yeah i'm gonna go back to hockinson you know i i think if he stays healthy hopefully he delivers um jared goff most likely the quarterback once again. And this is an offense I think you can buy some stock in. We saw Jared Goff make some improvements. Offensive line is going to be really good. Swift will be better.

Myron St. Brown is going to be better. They're going to add another receiver to the mix. But I think this is hopefully the year Hawkinson stays healthy and finally delivers on what we saw in terms of flashes the last couple of seasons. Do you know where he ranked in targets per game last year among tight ends? Probably in top 10. Fifth.

Pretty good. Who was that, Hawkinson? Mm-hmm. Yeah. Targets per game. Okay. Man, I'm trying to think of a breakout. It's not an easy position.

Kyle Pitts. I mean, fans would be in that category, clearly, if they get a quarterback. You know... Oh, Cole Komet, man. I like Cole Komet. Good for you. I mean, that passing game is going to be

potentially so much better than it was. Not potentially. It will be much better. Well, unless Fields just isn't good. But I think he is good. So Komet, I think, would really stand to benefit there. Another guy who could use

some end zone targets. All right. How about an early bust? Dave? I think Fant would qualify. The unsexy pick that I would make would be Mike Isecki, who is a free agent this offseason.

Really disappointed down the stretch with Miami. Had a bunch of meh games, not necessarily breakout games. That's a tight end that I don't see myself drafting a lot of, no matter where he goes. Jamie? I mean, there are two that are obvious to me, and that's depending on where they end up, but it's Dalton Schultz and Zach Aert. So two guys that if they leave their teams and end up in situations where they're going to potentially struggle, Schultz is the most obvious one. So he leaves Dallas. Good luck drafting him as a top 10 tight end.

And then for Ertz, he's obviously older. We'll see what type of situation he ends up in. But I would like to see him stay in Arizona, especially looking at what the receiving core looks like right now. But if he's gone, then probably hands off for me. He averaged 11.5 PPR points per game with the Cardinals last year. That's really good. There were so many busts at this position last year based on the ADP.

It's ugly. You know, I wanted to look up ADP or where this guy went in our drafts. I'm looking at a tight end that went in our half PPR draft in round eight, in our full PPR draft round 10. Dawson Knox. Curious where he's going to go this year, this upcoming year.

What do you think about Knox? I could see him getting overdrafted a little. You can't complain about round 10. Can't really complain that much about round 8 either, but he definitely still fits the profile of a touchdown needy tight end who will occasionally eclipse 70 yards in a game. I wish we would have gotten a chance to see, you know, he had the broken hand when he was really starting to play at his best.

And then he came back and he had some good moments, but just wasn't the same. And so, you know, just that lost time. I wonder how much that impacts him. So many terrible games from Dawson Knox, you know,

his, his yards last five games, including the playoffs. And he played 88% or more of the snaps in every game, 11 yards, zero yards, 49 yards, 89 yards, and two touchdowns, and 9 yards.

That is 3 games out of 5 with 11 or fewer yards, plus 5 for 89 and 2 against the Patriots in the playoffs. Remember, Josh Allen had bad weather in some of those games. Josh Allen wasn't tearing it up down the stretch in those games. Two of them were against New England. One was great. If he's the same type of player, then he's going to be disappointing. But if he continues to improve,

then... But it's the great or late. If you miss, this is the perfect guy to go target because you know you'll have some big weeks. They'll help you win. There'll be some weeks where he just frustrates the hell out of you. Yeah, you might be dropping him after week four. But round eight is not late. No, but round ten is. Yeah, round ten is late. He might be dropping him after week four. But round eight is not late. No, but round ten is. Yeah, round ten is late.

He might be the top name on your list when you get to the late round tight ends. And you probably won't even care who the Bills are playing in week one, two, three. You're just going to say, okay, this is a guy that scored nine touchdowns last year and has a chance to score no matter who they play because of who his quarterback is.

He was 20th in targets per game among tight ends last year, by the way. All right, that's Dawson Knox we're talking about. That wraps up our tight end discussion. And when we come back, you may have heard yesterday on the show that I am C-3PO. I closely identify with a lot of C-3PO's traits, just being very nervous. Yeah, annoying and talk a lot Yeah, but also very lovable

But, you know, according to one of our YouTube commenters I am not C-3PO Find out who on this show is and Star Wars characters for all of us plus your emails and some news right after this on fantasy football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit, more cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days and

the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome back to the show. Oh, dear. Who is C-3PO? Well, Nick Ebmeyer commented, Adam is not C-3PO, it's Chris. Always extra calculated but still nervous. Adam is Jar Jar Binks, always forgetting laptops and causing chaos.

That makes Dave Yoda because he's so calm and wise. Shraggy B is R2-D2 because he's always pressing buttons and saving the day. Heath is Chewy because of the beard and the sound effects. Jamie is Poe Dameron. Did I say that right? Yeah. Because he's always so intense in a combo of savior plus devil's advocate.

All us listeners are Grogu just trying to make it through the day. I don't get all of that. So if Heath were chewy, what would a chewy sigh sound like? That's for you to to perform chewy obviously you know most of that and then a sigh would be like is it this one oh gosh that's the uh compilation uh it's pretty good. You've got to be more... You've got to get it in there.

It's like... You've got to sigh. You're doing the Chewbacca noise while you puke. Which a lot of our listeners just did, by the way. Dave, congratulations. Yoda's the best character, and that's you. Way to go.

Yes, because I'm just glad he didn't say Jabba the Hutt. And even though I've never seen... Thank you for building my confidence a little bit. I've never seen the Jar Jar Binks. What a comment that was. I've never seen the Jar Jar Binks once, but even I know I don't want to be Jar Jar Binks. No.

Yeah. News and notes. Just avoid that movie notes that's the one just avoid that movie that's the first one yeah watch the next two watch road one yeah and then watch the final three just six movies no big deal i mean you already started just have your wife go to sleep early you get to watch all the movies you want have you guys adam i know the answer to this for you is no have you jamie watched the book of boba fett not yet no on my list we're through four episodes i love it i might love it i might start it today when i do my next peloton ride you're gonna end up finishing it

today it's so good that's very tangible yeah i keep hearing great things i started watching the south park post-coVID movie last night, which is really funny. That's on Paramount Plus, right? Yeah, yeah. I fell asleep, but I was cracking up. The whole premise is so funny that it's South Park post-COVID, and they're in their 30s, it seems.

It's like COVID lasted like three decades, because they start off and everybody's throwing away their masks, and it's like, oh, COVID's finally over, and then you see they're in their 30s. But it's very, because like they start off and everybody's throwing away their masks and it's like, Oh, COVID is finally over. Then you see their, their thirties, but it's very funny so far. Check it out on Paramount plus. Yeah. News and notes, CJ Uzama and Tyler Higbee have sprained MCLs in the Bengals Rams upcoming Superbowl. Can I tell you when you, when you were starting to get into the tight end

preview, but you veered off until saying this was going to be the best season ever, I thought this is where you were going. You said, when we get to the Super Bowl, I'm like, is he going to start with Uzama and Igby? Like, this is a tight end talk? No, no, I just despaired the listeners. Meanwhile, the Rams haven't had their starting safety Taylor Rapp for the entire postseason.

He's had a concussion. They're optimistic that he'll be back for the Super Bowl. And even bigger news, public schools in Cincinnati are getting the day after the Super Bowl as an off day, which is going to be great. It's going to be very celebratory or just kids staying home after the Bengals lost. If you were the Bengals,

would you displace the Rams out of their locker room to take the locker room because you're the home team? Or would you just say, you know what? You guys stay where you are. We're coming in anyway. We'll take the visitors locker room because you're the home team or would you just say you know what you guys stay where you are we're coming in anyway we'll take the visitors locker wow how much nicer is the home locker room from the visitors you gotta assume it's nicer i mean that's a brand new stadium it's probably high end like how big is the gap between the the bathroom stalls can someone peek in between they wanted to see if somebody was in there or not? No, these are not stalls. That would be uncomfortable. These are doors that close.

They go all the way to the bottom. You can't even see the feet. So you don't even know if anybody's in there. You lock it. You have to actually get up on a stool. Trust me, you have to get up on a stool and look over to see in. I'm still in therapy for that one. I think I would take the home locker rooms.

I can't believe I still talk to you after that uh i can't believe i think i would take the home locker rooms about you so you would be a jerk i mean it's it's definitely gamesmanship you know to okay you know what you guys gotta walk in the building go in the other place and and we have your locker like if i was uh i don't know uh jamar chase i'd be like i want jalen ramsey's locker i'd be standing in front of it posing posing pictures it's only gonna it's only gonna feel amazing and be a footnote if they win though because then they're like we're celebrating in your locker room they can stand outside if they win they don't care um i would probably not take it like what's the point they don't care yeah yeah all right i would take it. What's the point? They don't care. Yeah.

Yeah. All right. I would take it. I'm a jerk. I don't think I could see Joe Burrow sitting at his press conference after the game going, I think we would have won if we had just taken their locker room. No, but you want a better locker room, you know? How long are you in there for? A few hours?

That's a big deal. Look, as long as it's not like the locker rooms at the Oakland Coliseum, I think they'll be okay. Yeah. No sewage. But you're making them clear out all their stuff. That's the thing. Right, right. I think it might be half cleared out anyway.

They don't use it every day. No, but they don't have to clear out their stuff until after the season's over. I mean, that locker room might be empty right now anyway. Other than the name tags. Let's move on. Washington is preparing to take a big swing at quarterback this offseason, according to Albert Breer.

Good for the commanders. That was about 20 other teams. The Raiders players were reportedly disappointed that Josh McDaniels was hired. They were... I would be too. They really liked Rich Passaccio, and they didn't show up to the press conference for McDaniels.

No players were there. It's not a good way to start. McDaniels has an abnormally large head. Does he? Yeah. Interesting. I like what he said about the tuck rule. What he said about the tuck rule?

Yeah, he sheepishly admitted it was a fumble. Jimmy Garoppolo said he was in pain on every play during the postseason. Makes me feel bad for kind of criticizing him. Yeah, Rappaport said he's headed for thumb surgery most likely. So when Washington swings

for a quarterback, they'll go to the operating table and just say, here, sign this. But don't use your thumb. Alright, let's read some emails. Fantasyfootball at CBSi.com. This is from Nathan. Full PPR, Keeper League, four point per passing touchdown, only two receivers and a flex.

Keep any three. Jalen Hurts, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Javante Williams, Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Jalen Waddle. Oh, man. That got better as it went along.

Yes, not Hurts. No. I'm sure. Not Waddle. It's actually tough. Cook and Taylor are easy. The tough call would be between Chase and Williams if Williams gets a significant quarterback upgrade, but I'm going Chase.

I would be prepared to go Chase ahead of Williams as well. There's an interesting story in the Denver post about what the track record has been with running backs under Nathaniel Hackett. And there's been like back to his days in Buffalo when he was calling the plays, there was a split. Yeah. There's a split between F Jackson Spiller.

And then the year after that, I think Jackson got hurt and that's why you saw Anthony Dixon get a little bit more work. And then in Jacksonville, it was Leonard Fournette. So it might just be a case where when he's got a guy that he knows is good, he's going to lean on him as the primary back. I think we're going to – based on that, I think we're going in a direction that we're going to like with Javante Williams.

But I would still take Jamar Chase over Javante Williams here. I mean, that just gives you such a leg up to have a potential top three receiver and those two running back what would it take for you to consider javante williams ahead of dalvin cook because then you could have taylor williams and chase and if there's no restrictions on how long you can keep a guy you can keep those three for a long time your point yep So think about what that would take, but it's, it's pretty incredible when Tyreek Hill is like fifth on, on the list. From Matt in Massachusetts.

I need to keep seven for next year to 10 team, two quarterback PPR league. So the main ones that he says are Lamar Jackson. It's a two QB league. So Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray. So those two. Dalvin Cook. So we need five more. Dalvin Cook,

Javante Williams, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Stefan Diggs, and Darren Waller. You just have to throw one of those guys back. Dalvin Cook, Javante, Terry McLaurin, Ridley, Diggs, and Waller. Right now, I'd be throwing back McLaurin, Ridley, Diggs, and Waller. Right now, I'd be throwing back McLaurin,

but it depends on where Ridley ends up. Okay. I would too. Heath and I won our 2QB 10-team league with Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray as our first two picks. And it wasn't really because of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, I must say. It was because of Mark Andrews.

Thank you, Matt. Thank you, Nathan, for your emails. Everybody, you can leave an Apple Podcast review. You can ask a question or make Star Wars comparisons on YouTube, but always emailing helps too. It works great. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That's it for today's show. We will talk

to you on Thursday with some projections with Ethan Chris on Thursday's episode of Fantasy Football Today.