Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 Brandon Aiyuk Signs His Extension! Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel? Aiyuk or George Pickens? (08/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 29, 2024

Finally! Brandon Aiyuk and the 49ers have agreed to a 4-year contact extension, and we have the Fantasy analysis. Should you draft Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel first? Can we make the case for guys like Malik Nabers and George Pickens ahead of Aiyuk? What does this mean for Brock Purdy and George Kittle?  Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What's up, everybody? Welcome to this bonus podcast, Fantasy Football Today. It's Adam and Dave Richard here, and we've got Brandon Ayuk agreeing to a four-year, $120 million extension. Last year, Ayuk was wide receiver 16 per game in full PPR. The year before that, he was wide receiver 25 per game in full PPR. Will he be a top 16 wide receiver in drafts this weekend now that he is signed?

Let's bring in Dave here as we welcome you to Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. Okay, where was Brandon Ayuk before this announcement, and will you be moving him? Brandon Ayuk was a late fourth-round pick because we were starting to get seriously nervous about him not being a part of the 49ers to begin the start of the season. But cooler heads prevailed. He got his contract. I would assume he'll be back at practice on Friday.

And he's got a little bit more than a week to get ready for week one against the Jets. Okay. And so, like I said, he was wide receiver 16 per game last year. And that was with an incredible season. Now, I will say this. There were two games that he left early with injuries.

He played 53% of the snaps in week two. He played 38% of the snaps in week 18. If you take those games out, he averaged more than 17 fantasy points per game in PPR, more than 14, almost 15 per game in half PPR. If you take out the two games he left early, I don't think week 18 was an injury, just he left it early. Brandon Ayuk was basically like the number six receiver

based on those points per game. He was incredible. But the thing that stands out is that two straight seasons, he's been on pace for 112 or 114 targets so i mean that's the thing right like look at what he did with those targets it is essentially the same amount of targets two straight years dave in 2022 he's a borderline number two wide receiver with 78 catches and eight touchdowns in 2023 he's almost the number one receiver per game with 82 catches and eight touchdowns.

So again, if you're not following, I know it's a lot of numbers. Two straight years on pace. This is not his stats. This is a 17-game pace. On pace for eight touchdowns, on pace for right around 80 catches. But in 2022, he was on pace for 1,100 yards.

In 2023, 1,439 yards. So, you know, if he stays at 115 targets per 17 games, Dave, I think there's some regression coming here. So did you say where he is in the rankings? I did not say that yet. Okay, so will he be a top 20 wide receiver for you? Yes. Top 15?

I am actually working through it right now, and he is barely inside my top 15. Ayuk or Debo Samuel? Debo Samuel. In all formats? Yes. Ayuk or George Pickens? Ayuk.

I'm just saying, because we thought maybe they'd be... Because they could have been teammates and all that. But I don't think it's so obvious whenever you're talking about a guy who... Do you think he'll break 115 targets? Anything's possible between him as an ascending player

with two teammates, as great as debo is and kittle they're older guys and so it is possible that he could get to that number but i don't think he's going to be anywhere near like where the elite wide receivers are yeah those guys are getting like 150 targets a year i don't think he's getting one five. Oh, one, one five makes a lot more sense. One, two, zero wouldn't surprise me either. Listen, he's good. Why wouldn't the 49ers try and use him even more? And if they're going to be in more competitive games, then maybe they will. But that to me, that's, that's the biggest thing that holds me back. There were 12 games last year where he was playing with Debo and Kittle.

He actually averaged more PPR points per game in those games than he did on the season overall. And at no point can we find, you know, other than maybe like cherry picking games here and there, he was averaging around six and a half targets per game. So we want that target volume to go up there's no guarantee that it will that caps his ceiling he doesn't get the rushing production that debo samuel gets all right and debo could get the same amount of targets that caps his ceiling yeah both their ceilings are kind of cap but they're both really really good they can both average as they did last

year more than 16 ppr points per game. 12.8 yards per target. That is the most I'm going back now and looking, that is the highest for a minimum of 50 targets since Tyler Lockett in 2018, when he had 13.8 yards per target. And just to give you a reference, he's never Tyler Lockett's been at 11 yards per target one other year and never more than 9.6. So, so just, just to keep in mind, if you don't think the targets are going up for Brandon

Iuke, just, there is some regression coming in the yardage without question. There's just no way he's getting 12.8 yards per target. Uh, hopefully he gets more targets. Now, are you moving Debo Samuel down? Are you moving George Kittle down? I did not move Kittle down. I don't think I will because I just don't love the tight ends that I have behind George Kittle. And Debo's down a little bit for me, but still on the border of being a 2-3

pick. And Ayuk is literally going to go right after that. Can I just be bold here? Yeah, hit me. I will take George Pick be bold here? Yeah. Hit me. I, I will take George Pickens over Brandon.

I, you, wow. I will take Malik neighbors over Brandon. I, you, I will take, I would in non PPR DK Metcalf.

Oh, maybe in full PPR too, man. Maybe which one Pickens? No neighbors. Neighbors is more of a PPR guy to me. I think touchdowns would be hard. Um,

I don't know. I, I want you to listen to Dave. You can listen to me. I think touchdowns would be hard. Um, I don't know. I, I want you to listen to Dave. You can listen to me if you want Dave. Well, I'm still marinating on all this anyway. It's not like I've done,

I've put in, I've literally done like I did research on IU can Debo from earlier in the off season and now just re-ranking them. And like, just like literally you saying, neighbors or Iyuk, it's kind of hard to put him ahead of the neighbors. No, look, Iyuk is great. And he is going to be really efficient. Yeah, but neighbors is expected to be great too.

Maybe Iyuk is the safer pick because we've seen him do it before. But last year was the big year for Brandon Iyuk. And before last year, I mean, just over the course of a season, it wasn't as good without somebody being hurt. You know, in full PPR, he's going to have trouble hitting 90 catches, I think. All of this changes if he gets a big target boost. Just why would he? You know, they've got, there's no reason why they should go away from Debo

or away from Kittle or away from McCaffrey. They've got a great team. So it's a target crunch. But yeah, look, let's see what everybody has to say about tomorrow when we marinate. I just think that I'm expecting so much regression

from Brandon Ayuk. I guess it just wouldn't shock me if he was more like wide receiver 22 or something. He was, what did I say, 25 per game in 2022? Mm-hmm. Pickens, though.

Again, I think you have to bake in what he did last year as a huge part of what the expectations are. I don't think last year was a one-and-done type thing for Iyuk. I don't think he's about to regress to 12 or 13 PPR points per game. No, no. When was he last year? Over 16? Yeah.

No. But, yeah, like 15 would be a pretty big if he was at 15 that'd be a pretty big job well 16.2 overall 17.1 with debo and kittle which is totally weird like why why would it be higher with those guys wouldn't it be higher without those guys but it was what it was. And then in 2022, it was 13.4, 2021, 9.5. So I, I, maybe it does make sense.

If you think that he's not going to get the yardage that he got last year and the same target volume, I would pencil them in for the same target volume. Right. That's the thing. Cause like, and again, like,

how do you give that guy only five targets? Like in week one against the jets, when he didn't practice much, that I get. That's going to be a Debo week. That could be a Kittle week, but I'd be surprised if Iuke went off. And also, he's more of a man-beater anyway. He's a terrific player. He is a terrific player. He's like Nico Collins.

They both have these ridiculously efficient seasons, and they both have a lot of target competition. So that's the decision you have to make when you get into round three. And so which team is going to throw more? Well, the Texans will throw more. Nobody's going to throw more efficiently than the Niners, most likely. Although I will say those two teams, I think, were one and two in yards per attempt last year.

The Dolphins were top three as well. Those were the top three teams. That's the thing. You know about the Niners that those guys, they may not get a lot of targets. They're going to do a lot with it. But if you're a person who prefers target volume, then you just have to think about that

with Brandon Ayuk. Brock Purdy, thoughts? Tempted to move him back into my top 12, but at 12. Over Tua, over Caleb Williams. I think I'm going to make that move. Not going to put him over, definitely not over Jordan Love, not over Dak, not over Jaden Daniels. There's still a huge domino to fall still.

And this is a crucial key here, is that if there's still a huge domino to fall still and this is a crucial key here is that if there's no trent williams the offense just isn't it's running at 80 not 100 that's too steep 82.6 not 100 we have 373 people watching here i'm not putting an actual poll up but i'm just asking the chat because i want to see how, if I'm totally way off base here. You're trying to see something. Well, ADP is going to say that I'm way off base, but I want to know Pickens or Ayuk. Who does

the chat like? So I asked that. Ayuk or Pickens? And honestly, the first four answers are all Pickens. Interesting. No, sorry. Four out of five. Four out of five.

Somebody wants to know, Iyuk or T. Higgins? I'm not big on T. Higgins. I will take Iyuk. Okay. We've got now four Pickens, three Iyuk. All right. I'm surprised that it's close. Listen.

Five Pickens. Pickens isn't... He was efficient at the end of the year with Mason Rudolph. I don't know if he'll find that efficiency again at all in 2024 pickings. I'm going to put a poll up and we will answer. We'll see what the results are tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. Thanks, everybody, for watching this bonus podcast.