Fantasy Football Today - Breakout QBs! It's Tua Time! (08/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on guest spots on our show, Zoom calls with our analysts and more! https://tinyurl.com/fftdonate Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts We've got Chris Harris of HarrisFootball.com on to talk about breakout QBs. Are Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence breakouts, or did that already happen last season? We also talk about Tua Tagovailoa as a breakout and then discuss the rankings of Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Anthony Richardson.  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline

at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply.

Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Breakouts, baby. It begins with cornerbacks and with a special guest while introducing just a moment. Sleepers, we did that. Busts, we took care of that. It's time for breakouts. Remember, sleepers win you weeks.

Breakouts win you leagues, TM. So we're looking for some big-time players that are going to have huge seasons, their best seasons yet in most cases. We got Chris Harris here of Harris Football. He is at Harris Football on Twitter, harrisfootball.com, Harris Fantasy Football Podcast. Very efficient and effective branding. Welcome, Chris Harris of Harris Football. What's up? I feel like it was only just 365 days ago that I was probably questioning what the hell

a breakout is on this show. Let's do it again. Let's not forget. Do you remember how you ended your appearance last year? I don't. I do remember giving you hell over Nick Chubb and being correct.

I like, no. I don't think you were correct because what did he finish in PPR? He was eighth per game, which is like exactly what he always is, you know. But you finished off with a song, with a musical number.

You had a guitar behind you. On the guitar? Yeah. Oh. I had guitars behind me because I was in musical number. You had a guitar behind you. On the guitar. Oh. I had guitars behind me because I was in Massachusetts. I do have a guitar just out of camera. Look at that. Hey, man. Oh, of course.

You're always welcome. You're always welcome. Here we go. Now in the middle of the show. It's going to fall over and make a really loud noise. Will you guys play Kelsey Zone? Yeah, Kelsey Zone. You got it, Dave. Show me how it's done. So Heath

and Dave have combined three breakouts and two of them. How many times will Azrin insult Heath this episode? I think it's going to be zero. I apologize for any animosity this morning. does Heath know? It feels like...

We talked. You like a little heart to heart yeah so anyway forget about the breakout episode i want to hear about this dave dave no dave who i think we should ask the chat everybody vote like who sent the first text and apologized An apologist. I was busy. I was editing. Okay. Anyway, the two sort of industry breakouts at quarterback are probably Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. And Justin Fields is on Heath's breakout list, and Trevor Lawrence is on Dave's breakout list. And Dave, I'm sure you like Justin Fields as well.

Heath, I know you like Trevor Lawrence, maybe not quite as high as others. Chris, how do you feel about that? Because we talked offline, and you have maybe a little bit of a gripe with the phrasing. I mean, I don't have a problem with the ranking. It's fine. It's just didn't they already break out? Like, I guess if you're saying they're going to finish, you know, QB3, then it would be a breakout.

But as far as, I mean, this whole revisionist history with fantasy points per game, I need the guy to play, so I'll just take the total number of fantasy points, please. I think it was like Fields was, what did we say? 5, 6? Fields was 6th and Lawrence was 7th and 4th point per passing touchdown leagues. Pretty similar

in 6th point. On a per-game basis, Lawrence was more like 10th and 4th point, I think 11th and 6th point, whereas Fields was closer to 5th or 6 a per game basis. Lawrence was more like 10th and four point, I think 11th and six point, whereas fields was, was closer to fifth or sixth per game. Um, yeah, so, but go ahead. That's about where I have them. And so that's why to me, I'm not sure that they qualify as breakouts, but they're certainly breaking out in that they're going to get drafted higher this year than they did last year. But the only, did last year. I get that point. I think about that with Tony Pollard, too.

I think of Tony Pollard without Zeke. Man, he should be a breakout. Now look, he finished RB7 last year. I don't have Lawrence as a breakout because I have him ranked at the same place that he finished. Fields is kind of – I think I have him ranked exactly at QB5 in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, which is a little better than where he finished.

He was seven last year. But also I think last year was kind of a down year for QB scoring. I think Justin Fields maybe needs to be 10 to 15% better this year to finish in the same spot. And also I think there is a potential if everything clicks with DJ more to where Justin Fields is not QB5 this year. He's QB1 or 2. I see that. I hear that.

It's now a good time to give my definition on what I think a breakout is. Yeah, but I just want to piggyback on something Heath said. Trevor Lawrence was QB7 last year. He scored 50 fewer fantasy points in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues than QB seven did in 2021. And that was Dak Prescott. So I think it's possible for him to finish his QB seven, but have a much more impactful fantasy season just by, you know, if the quarterbacks are better, but go ahead, Dave. So I'm thinking more along the lines of raw numbers and not fantasy numbers,

but we can turn it into fantasy numbers because that's what we do with raw numbers in football. Anyway, my definition of a breakout player is a player who's going to have the best or maybe the second best year of his entire career. Okay. Okay. I think Trevor Lawrence is headed toward that.

So, uh, Chris, are we maybe just not coming up with a lot of breakouts because there just aren't a lot of breakouts to predict in quarterback? That's what I think for this position anyway. I think you could argue, like, there's still one we haven't talked about that I've got on the list at least. That's right.

That's Tua. I think, like, he is the guy who I'm actually ranking to be a lot better than where he finished last year and has that little four or five game sample from last year where everything was going right where he looked like oh crap he's a top three or four quarterback so i think he might be the guy who is the more traditional ranked well ahead of where he finished last year breakout and certainly somebody who could have a career best year seeing how his career best number he didn't even throw for 3600 yards last year and this is

playing into chris's point he didn't play a for 3,600 yards last year. And this is playing into Chris's point. He didn't play a full season. If he had played a full season, it would have been well over 4,000 yards. I have nine. Sorry to interrupt, but I have nine. Where do you guys have them? I've got them 10.

Eight. So I think there's our breakout. Yeah. I mean, it feels like that's the guy. Good show, guys. Chris Harris, harrisfootball.com, everybody. breakout yeah i mean well it's like that's the guy you know show guys chris harris harris football.com everybody you're relying on uh the jujitsu right you're relying on him knowing how to fall better but uh you know in a single quarterback league it's a risk i think we all probably would be willing to take if we waited at quarterback um that is actually isn't the one

that i thought he was going to bring up i thought he's going to bring up anthony richardson oh that's the other debate that adam gives me a hard time if i say a rookie because well yeah he's gonna be better than he was last year i do want to go just go back going back to two for a second i was really disappointed when i read today that he's still a white belt uh oh no i'm not sure he's actually in the rankings good enough he's 14 that's great man so we'll spend some time on Tua but how about this for Fields and Lawrence do they

enter a different tier I mean are they 6 and 7 ish in the rankings but you know pretty distant from Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson, whoever might be in front of them or Chris, do you think they step up in tier and now they're, you're pretty much even with some of the guys who are ranked ahead of them rather than, you know, being clearly behind.

I have them pretty far behind those guys. Uh, like in combined ranks, there's a, there's a jump down. Uh, so I guess I'm saying no. You know, there's just – Fields, a little bit of a reliability question. The reason that I have to make my case for Fields on a per-game basis is because we worry that he gets hurt, right? And then Lawrence hasn't done it yet, even though, you know, I just can't consider him at the same level as, like, a former MVP and Joe Burrow. But, you know, I think if you were going to rank them that way,

that would be a fair representation of a breakout. Okay. Dave, Heath, what are your thoughts on that? Do Fields and Lawrence enter that tier of, maybe they're not Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, but they're not far behind? I've got them both in my second tier. But Fields is toward the top of the tier. Lawrence is bringing up the rear of the tier. And I think there's a two-round difference between them.

I could see Justin Fields going in round four, and I'd be okay with that. And I think Trevor Lawrence is probably a little bit better in round six. But when the season's over, Justin Fields might be right around 26 or 27 fantasy points per game. It's really good. It's close to where he was in his last 11 games. But I think that Trevor Lawrence will be like 24, 24 and a half on a per game basis. I would say, and Dave kind of hinted at it when he said one of them's at the top of that tier, one of them's at the bottom. Like, do they jump to the next tier seems to me much more likely for Justin Fields than Trevor Lawrence because like DJ Moore

could make quarterback easy enough for Justin Fields I mean you moved Arnel Moody the wide receiver to chase Claypool is now whatever you think of him a pretty solid wide receiver three and maybe there's enough open guys and enough guys doing stuff after the catch that his passing numbers are like Lamar 2019 he throws for 3100 yards and ranks 25th in the league or something, but still runs for 1,000 yards, and then he's there. I really don't see Tua or Trevor jumping into that top tier.

How do you guys rank Fields versus Lamar Jackson? I have Fields higher. I have Lamar higher. All right, two Lamars and Fields. How do you rank Fields versus Justin Herbert? I have Fields ahead of Herbert. Same. I have Fields ahead of Herbert and Burrow.

And that's in six point? Both. Yeah. Okay. We're going to take a quick break here. We only got about 20-minute episodes for all these positions. So we'll talk about Aaron Rodgers, who's 10th in the rankings for Chris. Also, I'll ask you a little bit about Deshaun Watson.

You have 12th, you have Tua, you have Rodgers, you have Prescott ahead of Deshaun. And then we'll discuss Anthony Richardson, whether he's a sleeper, he's a breakout, whatever. Or maybe some people would say he's a bust. We'll talk about him. We've got a lot to tell you about. tinyurl.com slash fftdonate. That's where you can find all the things you can bid on as part of our draft-a-thon. It all benefits St. Jude.

You can come on our show. You can join the podcast Leftovers League. That's going to be available on Thursday at that URL I said, tinyurl.com slash fftdonate. Also, check out CBS Sports Network. It's a really great network if you're just a sports fan. But we're going to have three shows on that network, Monday the 28th, Tuesday the 29th, and then Friday.

I don't know how many days there are in August, so that Friday. It's the first. Okay, the first. Thank you. That's a busy week for us. That's also Draftathon week. That Draftathon is Wednesday on YouTube from 4 to 10 p.m. But CBS Sports Network will be on there. I'll tell you more about that as we get closer.

We'll be right back after a super quick break. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? We'll be right back after a super quick break. the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Alright, super quick break is over. So, for Chris, his quarterback

rankings, which are for four point per passing touchdown leagues, right? Correct. Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow, Jackson, Fields, Herbert, Lawrence, Tua, leagues right correct mahomes alan hertz burrow jackson fields herbert lawrence tua aaron rogers and then dac prescott and then deshaun watson let's talk about that little trio there aaron rogers i'm calling him a breakout you got you have him 10th uh roger roger i mean he's definitely gonna have the best year of his career. Wow. I'll put my Jet Super Bowl ticket in.

Yeah, you're certainly higher on him than ADP. What do you like about Rodgers? It probably just comes down to whether you think he has one sort of FU season in him to the Packers. And I kind of tend to think that he does. Traditionally, his two most recent MVP years, the back-to-back ones, I was, you know, the market was low. I was high. It served me very well. I don't feel like the fundamentals are really any different. I didn't see on film like diminished arm strength or diminished physical skills, diminished mobility, particularly it means 39 so it could be

coming but i didn't really see it i saw a dude who was super frustrated with his receiving core and kind of gave up for the first half of the year and then started to figure it out and got his head right and whatever i never want to figure out what's going on inside any player's head let alone aaron rogers's head but played a lot lot until week 18, and then he played quite badly to miss the playoffs against the Lions. It strikes me that physically he still has the want to, and Garrett Wilson makes up for a lot of sins. And if I'm waiting, waiting, waiting on quarterback, I feel like of the players that are in that neighborhood,

Rodgers to me is the one that could accidentally fall into 30 touchdowns. He's only going to throw four picks, and then I get the 4,000 yard season, and I've done what I could have gotten at QB4 or whatever. Deshaun Watson. Heath, you also have Watson 12th, so you and Chris have Deshaun Watson 12th,

and Press got 11th. Dave, you're higher on Watson. You have him 9th. Why don't you start on Watson? I think he's more comfortable in what they're doing in Cleveland. And I think the Browns are going to throw more than they ever have under Kevin Stefanski. You look at the receiving core and Cooper's pretty good. David Njoku is not bad.

Elijah Moore was added. Cedric Tillman was added. And I think they're going to throw a little bit to the running backs, Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford, not to a crazy degree, but enough to where I think Deshaun Watson will be able to put up good numbers. And I think his accuracy will be a hell of a lot better than it was last year. And he's going to run a little bit more. And that is something everybody saw in the preseason game. But you also saw late last season where his averages last year rushing weren't that far off in terms of rushes per game,

about five or six per game, not far off from where he was in Houston. That's just the nature of who he is, and that'll help provide an even stronger floor for him in fantasy. So I don't look at him as the type of quarterback that's going to get, what did I say for Trevor Lawrence, like 24.5 fantasy points per game? I don't know why I didn't just say 25, but what the hell? I think that Deshaun's probably going to be somewhere in between 22 and 25. So a little step down from Trevor Lawrence, but somebody who I think is still going to have a nice bounce back year for him. And there's always the upside that he goes back

to being a top six quarterback. It's not something that I would bet on, but I think that he's got it in him. If things just break, right. Maybe the Browns I would bet on, but I think that he's got it in him if things just break right. Maybe the Browns defense isn't as good as I think it's going to be, and he's got to chase points more often. That could help Deshaun Watson put up much better numbers. Heath, you wanted to jump in there?

Yeah. The only thing I don't know, I have a hard time putting him in that mid range of 22 to 25. I I've got Deshaun Watson at 12 because I feel like he's either himself again, and he's a top six quarterback or we're dropping him week three. And I don't have any clue based on the evidence that I have, which one it's going to be. And so I just like, I think, I think I might bet on the over and the under of 22 to 25 fantasy points per game. I don't feel very good about the middle.

The receiving course. Fine. I don't know. I don't, he probably runs about as much as he did in the past. Stefansi's you're hoping that he Stefansi throws more, but I don't think Stefansi throws enough to where he's like pass heavy. Not well-defined pass heavy for us.

More than league median, 565 plus passes. I think he'll be just below that. But I think he could be right around that. Chris, you have Watson 12th. Yeah, to me, the larger point is there has to be in your factor here. There has to be, like he said, some X percent chance that this guy just can't play anymore because there's no explanation for last year. Russ doesn't begin to. The film is so bad. Yeah, he looked like Tyrod Taylor. He looked so bad.

Sorry, Tyrod. But like he didn't look like a starter. And I don't think I'm ranking him 12th, so I don't think he's that. But what's the X percent chance? It doesn't – like if you're going to factor in all the expected values and their percentage chances and come together, like there has to be some demerit there. It just feels like something I'm completely willing to miss on, especially because if I'm making a bet who's going to finish –

like who's got the best chance in the group between like Rodgers, Dak, Watson, who's got the best chance to have like the sky Rogers, Dak Watson, who's got the best chance to have, have like the, the skyrocket season that, you know, puts you in the top five at quarterback. I really do think it's Rogers. Okay.

Uh, then we got to finish with Anthony Richardson here because you, uh, Chris, you have Anthony Richardson in four point for passing touchdown leagues, 16th and Dave and Heath in six point for passing touchdown leagues. Have Anthony Richardson nine, uh,

11th for Dave and 9th for Heath. Jamie also has him 9th, so that would make him 10th in our consensus rankings. Math. Yeah. But, you know, we have, and Heath was the first to say this on the air, laid out a good point of,

well, why not draft him earlier than where you rank him? So you get the upside if you think it's there, and then you can easily draft Rodgers or Geno or Cousins or maybe even Tua or something a little bit later. Give me your philosophy and your thoughts on Richardson. Sure, it's fair. I mean, what if Justin Fields finished, what did we say, QB 6 or 7 or something with 2,200 passing yards last year?

It's a low bar as long as he runs. Again, I'm factoring in some X percent chance that he absolutely isn't ready to play in the NFL. Despite all the fluff, there is some X percent chance given what he's been in college and given that he had a ridiculously bad completion percentage, it would basically be unprecedented for him to be good in the pros with that level of completion percentage. I'm not predicting failure for him. And I understand Heath's point in a league where it's not hard to get quarterbacks, where you can take two or you can find solutions in the waiver wire or trade them. Certainly, I understand that logic that goes, yeah, ranks shouldn't really be a predicted order of finish.

It should be the order in which you take them. If you want to take risk, I get Heath's point or, and Dave's point to take them higher. I just, I kind of feel like we're going to be cutting them in week four and not, not because of any personal knowledge. I don't think any of us has knowledge.

You know, all we see is preseason, you know, stuff where it's, it doesn't feel real to me. We're only going to know when we see it. And my spidey sense is tinkling that maybe we're going to see bad stuff at first.

And I might be giving Shane Steichen too much credit, but just like for him to have been with Justin Herbert and that type of offense and then gone to Philadelphia. Oh, but it was with Herbert before it was Herbert first. Right. And then go to Philadelphia after that, like an extremely high pass volume situation and see Jalen Hurts and be a part of putting that offense together.

And then to be the coach of the team that drafts the literal greatest athlete who's ever tested at the NFL combine at quarterback. I just assume he's going to run 10 times a game. I can't imagine they would do anything else. And if he runs 10 times a game, he can be, like you said, Chris, a terrible passer and have terrible passing stats and still be really good for fantasy football. They sent Jonathan Taylor home today. He might be running 15 times a game. They already have the running

back. He's playing quarterback. I'm going to leave this episode with a gift. And this is something that technically heath and i did but i take full responsibility for after the first five weeks of the season let's see october 12th i don't even know justin fields had scored 17 9 10, and 19 fantasy points in five games. He had three touchdown passes.

He had one rushing touchdown. I was going to make a point about being patient with Anthony Richardson because you said you'd drop him in week four. In a super flex league, 10 teams last year, I dropped Justin Fields. And I just looked to see who I dropped it for, because this will be like me dropping Justin Jefferson. If it's Peyton Barber, I'm going to lose my eye. Peyton Barber, please.

Please, Peyton Barber. It was Andy Dalton. I dropped Justin Fields for Andy Dalton last year. I just found the text. Can I drop Justin Fields for Dalton from you? You said yes? I didn't respond. You're complicit.

History does not record the response. No, I responded L-O-L-I-D-C. I didn't listen. All right. Lessons learned. Chris Harris, thank you so much for coming on. Appreciate it, man. You got it.

Can I give my field story from last year? My impatient field story? It worked out okay because it's a dynasty league, but I traded fields in it and I got McCaffrey on a contract where I get him for two more years, but the person who got fields has him for basically his whole career if he wants him. I did it right at that moment. Right at the moment before he started

betting. If I do it again, I won the league, so McCaffrey helped, but I don't think that's how you'd value them now. No, I don't think so. My story is someone dropped him in this King's Classic League that I'm in with a bunch of industry peeps, and I picked him up. Josh Allen and I had no reason to pick him up. I just did, and then Allen hurt himself.

I went to Justin Fields for the rest of the year, won the league. There you go. All right, everybody, have a great day. Remember to check out Chris at HarrisFootball and HarrisFootball.com. And we have got breakout running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends later tonight. Running backs will be at 8.30 p.m. Eastern if you're watching live on YouTube. So we'll see you then.