Fantasy Football Today - Breakout TEs! Is Kyle Pitts a League Winner? (08/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on guest spots on our show, Zoom calls with our analysts and more! https://tinyurl.com/fftdonate Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts Is Kyle Pitts going to live up to the hype and smash his ADP? We bring on Tera Roberts to talk about Pitts and other breakout candidates like Greg Dulcich, Pat Freiermuth, Jake Ferguson and Chig Okonkwo.  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Breakouts Bonanza continues. One of our favorite guests. It's Tara time. Tara Roberts is here. Welcome, Tara. Hey, guys. How you doing?

Tired. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you for staying up with us. 930 at night. For all of you watching on YouTube, thank you so much for hanging out with us all night long here. And I think we got to start with this.

First, actually, Tara, tell us how we can find your content before we do that, before we do tight ends. Twitter is the best place, if that's what we're still calling it. It's Tara time. It's that where you can find me. I post as much as I can humanly remember

of what I put out, videos, articles, short videos, TikToks, all that good stuff. Um, you can find it there lots of stuff. Cause it is a very busy and very newsworthy time period. Adam, we have to, uh, congratulate Tara. She was, uh, just, uh, I believe today, if I'm not mistaken, Tara, uh, uh, the recipient of the Mike Tagliere rising star award, uh, that they do over at fantasy pros and well deserved uh we we have obviously got the pleasure of having tara join us on a lot of our shows over the last couple of years but uh one of the best rising stars in the industry you know exactly keep it going keep

it going for tara thank you guys well deservederved. We love having you on. All right, let's talk about Kyle Pitts here. What kind of a breakout do you foresee for Kyle Pitts? Tara? I mean, I think he has top three potential. Now, things have to line up. The problem with him and his breakout potential is that, and I had this conversation with someone the other day, we love so many pieces in this Falcons offense, just how many of them can actually pan out. We love Bijan. We love Drake

London. We love Kyle Pitts. We're okay-ish with Desmond Ritter. We don't love him, but we need him to support all of these fantastic players, especially from a receptions point of view when you're adding in Bijan as well. So it just kind of gets down to if healthy and you know, if the offense is flowing correctly, I have so much confidence that Kyle Pitts can have that, that big breakout season that we're looking for him, that massive talent upside that we know he has. I just get worried about the consistency when we saw the level of production that, um, when things were going well within the offense that Drake London had, we know the type of production that we can get from Bijon.

I'm just worried about what's going to get here, but that's not stopping me from drafting Kyle Pitts because the ADP is fantastic. Jamie, what kind of season do you see for Kyle Pitts? Is this going to be one where we say, damn, I wish I had some Kyle Pitts. He is killing his winning leagues. I'm with Tara. You know, I think he, I might go a step further. He could be, he could be too, you know, he might be better than, than Mark Andrews.

You know, he's just got that, that type of upside. You know, it's, there's been one other guy in NFL history to go a thousand yards in his rookie campaign. It was Mike Ditka. So I don't even know how many people actually realized that he actually played as opposed to just coach. So, you know, the, the, the way that he started, if he had scored five or six touchdowns that rookie season, we would be through the roof about what his expectations could be, even with the injuries last year.

And Tara said it best. We're asking Desmond Ritter to support three of the arguably top players at their position when you factor in their age and their years of service you know so it's it's very challenging and you know i i spoke to um arthur smith when i did the cover story for our magazine on bijan robinson you know i asked him about desmond ritter and and the two receiving options there and the thing he said about pits was his rookie year he had matt ryan his second year he had some some quarterback play. And what that meant was a veteran that they could trust to throw the ball versus some guys that they don't have. If they trust Desmond Ritter, then Kyle Pitts and Drake London will be good. If they don't,

expect them to lead the NFL in rushing attempts again, and B. John Robinson will have an unbelievable year if he stays healthy. So I would take a chance on Pitts, as Tara said, very appropriately. Based on his ADP, it's much safer than it has been the last two years. What is his ADP? Well, looking at four different websites right now, we are talking about round maybe five,

but mostly six. On CBS, he's going 72nd. On DraftSharks, Pitts is going with the 11th pick of round six, so that's 71st, right? On NFC, he's going 72nd on draft sharks. Pitts is going with the 11th pick of round six. So that's 71st, right? Uh, on NFC,

he's going 72nd and on fantasy pros, Kyle Pitts is going 63rd. So I shouldn't have even said round five. It's around six, maybe early round seven pick. Um, I don't, I feel like I'm never lucky enough to see Kyle Pitts going that late in my

drafts. This is what I don't know that I've, I mean, I'm sure it's happened with all the mocks, but the ones I can remember, he's never available in round six. I would take Kyle Pitts in round six every single chance I get. What if you have to take him in round five, guys? Would you be comfortable taking Kyle Pitts as a top 60 player? Yeah, I'd be okay with it. I mean, I would – I love George Kittle, but again, we've had the injury concerns.

We had the news come out that they want to try and, you know, manage his usage to kind of help out with those injury issues that he's had as well. So when I'm looking at Kyle Pitts, I'm fine with that, taking that leap and kind of pushing him up a tiny bit. I have seen him fall in drafts because there are some people that really love, I love Darren Waller too, but some people that are pushing Darren Waller up, they're willing to take that risk. Dallas Scottard as well. So I've seen where he's fallen in a couple of instances. Yeah. And I think, you know, Tara said the name I gravitate to the most, which is Darren Waller, you know? So when I usually see pits go, Waller's still on the board. So it's kind of just playing

how that will play out, you know? So I, I would prefer to wait for Waller because I see just as much upside for him if he stays healthy, because we've already seen that. Um, but I,

again, if, if it was, you know, if I'm going to draft with 11 other means and somebody takes Waller first, then I would certainly be happy to take outfits out. Can I get it in that draft? You're not as handsome as those.

I hear that each one gets a little bit less handsome. So maybe if you get to like a 24-team league, I might be able to sneak in there. You'd be in the 15th. Thank you. Heath had Pat Frymuth as a breakout. Are either of you feeling Pat Frymuth as a tight end breakout?

Yes, to a lesser degree, but not to the heights of being one of those type of players i think for what you know you saw last year and some of the metrics when he got a chance to be sort of that big slot receiver that was you know where he stood out and so is he going to get those opportunities well you saw they did a draft they draft you know washington out of georgia to be more of a blocking presence and i think help with you know just everything that he's able to do and he'll be involved in the passing game as well.

We just got through, you know, talking about wide receivers and, you know, George Pickens and Deontay Johnson, and now having a maybe capable third receiver, if Allen Robinson has anything left, I don't know if that's the case. I think Fryer Muth will get a little bit more of those opportunities to, you may be, you know, when they're in some, you know, 11 personnel or 12 personnel with him being more of a slot receiving option

opposite the other side of the slot being deontay johnson uh i think he's gonna you know be better than what he was a year ago when he scored two touchdowns you know rookie series and he scored seven touchdowns you know so the touchdowns will certainly probably sway if you feel he's going to be you know in the top seven or eight um i i hope all those seven guys stay healthy and outperform him, but for me, he's my eighth tight end. I could see a top 10 finish for sure. Bigger upside, Fryermuth or Njoku? For me, it's Fryermuth.

For me, it's Njoku, if everything pans out correctly with him staying on the field and Deshaun Watson. Okay. I will spend the second half of the show on Tara's breakouts. Let's finish the first half here with Sam Laporta and Dalton Kincaid. Did we talk about them as tight end

sleepers, Jamie, already? I feel like we did. I mean, I think it was probably in the sleeper conversation, but for tight end breakouts, it's hard to find a lot of guys. I just love their setup. They're sleepers based on their ADP and where you're drafting them. I think, do they have the chance to be starting caliber fantasy tight ends? Absolutely. So, you know, so it's the same argument, you know, they're, they're tied to good situations. One side to a great quarterback and

Kincaid, you know, going to be probably at worst third on the team and targets barring an injury, you know? So I think Stefan Diggs is clearly going to be the target leader for Buffalo. And then hopefully Gabe Davis is that second guy, but I think he can an injury, you know, so I think Stefan Diggs is clearly going to be the target leader for Buffalo. And then hopefully Gabe Davis is that second guy, but I think he could challenge Davis, you know, in terms of how they operate and all you've heard this off season is he's going to be on the field a lot. You saw that in the first preseason game when the starters were out. And then for the Porta, um, again, you know, great opportunity, uh, already given the starting tight end role. We saw last year, TJkinson when he was on the team, average six and a half targets per game. That's a really good place to be for a tight end if that's what Laporta is going to be looking at.

We had a six game head start where, you know, no Jamison Williams. And so Marvin Jones, your favorite player of all time, Josh Reynolds and Denzel Mims, you know, see what happens there. You know, clearly they're going to use Jameer Gibbs out of the back foot as well. But I think Laporta has got a great opportunity with one of the best play callers in Ben Johnson. So I like those two situations. And as, as I said, and we were talking off the air, if you don't love the group of Friar Muth, Ingram, Njoku, Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higby, Gerald Everett, you know, and,

and you feel like those are more floor plays as opposed to ceiling plays. You take one of these guys in the two rookies and you pair them with one of those guys. So at least, you know, you're getting some safe production, but if these guys hit, they could be, I don't want to say league winners, but you know, that next year down. Do you find yourself Tara drafting these rookie tight ends? I do. Yeah. Um, especially in leagues, but when it comes to Kincaid, I am a little bit careful with him. I look more so at him, like if I get a tight end premium league, that's where I'm willing to take that risk and jump in on Kincaid. Because when I look at him and we're seeing, you know, he's

going to be on the field a lot, but they're not going to phase out Dawson Knox. He's still going to be at present. And if we look at Dawson Knox in the history of the way that he's produced, we can kind of say, okay, you know, obviously blocking big positive for him, but he has been a pretty good red zone target. Um, and they've loved that usage for him. Uh, Josh Allen has loved that usage for him. I don't see him being phased out of that. So maybe Kincaid gets a big boost in terms of targets and reception opportunities in yardage. And maybe just on the lower end in terms of his touchdown opportunities. And maybe that's where you lean towards him in a tight end premium league because he's getting that bonus for the pass catching opportunity. So that's where I would lean Kincaid a little bit.

But I probably between the two lean towards Laporta just because, as Jamie mentioned, the opportunity is kind of through the roof there. He doesn't have a lot to compete with. He doesn't have any other tight end to compete with. And he's got the massive advantage of, he could technically, you know, love Marvin Jones, but he could technically push maybe second, maybe, you know, we've got Gibbs to kind of figure out as well and the perceptions that he's going to have in that offense.

But if he can get up in there and be the third look in that offense early on while Jamison Williams is out, maybe push for the second look, step up immediately. I could see where he kind of can grab a prominent role in this offense. We know Detroit's offense and the massive output that they've had in the past. Jamie talked about the play calling as well. I don't see any of that really changing. So the opportunity is kind of through the roof for Laporta.

Okay. More breakouts later. After this break, I do want to just say Dawson Knox, the last two years, just go back to the possible role that we could see from Kincaid. In 2021, Dawson Knox led all tight ends

in goal-to-go routes run. One more than Kelsey in 2021. He was sixth in 2022. Didn't have a ton of them, but he did end up sixth. He had the same amount, basically, as Mark. He had the same amount as Mark Andrews. Andrews missed some time. I wonder if they want to have a tight end run a lot of routes near the goal line,

and they didn't feel as comfortable last year with Knox as they did the year before. I would love to see Kincaid pick up a lot of those, if not be the guy in that area. But I think the Bills have at least shown a willingness to involve their tight end near the end zone. All right, just want to throw that stat out there. I pretty much never get to say that stat. I thought it was pretty interesting.

We will come back and talk about Terra's four breakout tight ends. Before we do that, please donate. If you're watching on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, you're going to see there's a donate button at the top of the chat. And all you got to do is hit it and donate some money to St. Jude.

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Tara Roberts, who are you? You should put a goal, and if we don't meet it, you just fill in a difference. Actually, I think the 12 Jamies were going to fill in a difference. Yeah, I mean, you know I contribute every year. I do too. Yeah, but I don't think you contribute enough. You got to contribute a little more. Hey. That A's are 14 that you're sitting

on. That's right. I forgot about that. All right. Tara, who are your four? That's about as realistic as the bookshelf idea I had on the wide receiver breakout episode. Who are your four breakout tight ends? Well, I love good late round tight end. Some of these not super late, other super, super late. Luke Musgrave, Chig Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, and Jake Ferguson. Luke Musgrave, Chig Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, and Jake Ferguson. I've also been told that the goal is $5,000 and it is stated clearly for you on YouTube. That is our goal. So there it is, $5,000.

We've raised $130,000 so far today, so let's get on that. All right, let's start with Dulcich, if you don't mind. We'll go out of order from the way you gave them. But Dulcich, we got maybe a little cold feed after we saw the Troutman usage, whatever, in the preseason. But what do you think about Dulcich would you take him would you pair him with someone else if you were gonna draft Dulcich go ahead go ahead I would I would not use him as the only guy that I'm having like maybe you pair him up with someone who's a little bit more reliable drafted around

maybe the same area maybe you want to go with like a little bit higher maybe a Dalton Schultz is someone who we think can be a very reliable pass catcher. Go with someone who may not have that massive upside, but can get you a reliable floor and someone that you know was going to be involved and have targets. It kind of lessens the risk there with Dulcich because yeah, we've seen some questionable usage in 2022 in particular. And, you know, hopefully the preseason is not an

indication as well but we did hear some positive you know statements from Sean Payton and the way that they want to use Greg Dulcich within this offense and I think if we look back at his 2022 performance you know barring the fact that you know this season he did have some time off due to injuries as well but overall his average points per, not that bad in terms of a guy that was a rookie in a legitimately terrible offense for Denver, unfortunately. And if you look back at the tight end position in Sean Payton's previous offenses, obviously we've got Taysom Hill kind of skewing things in the past. But if you look at like a real tight end like Jared Cook, he did have a couple of strong seasons, particularly in touchdowns in New Orleans. So I think Greg Dulcich kind of has a similar profile

to be a solid contributor and maybe someone that sees some gold-line opportunities and red zone opportunities. Yeah. For the 10th time in the past week or so, Greg Dulcich averaged more yards per game as a rookie than Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle did. They averaged less than 35 yards per game.

Okay, we got Okonkwo. Let's go to Okonkwo. This is a popular one, but you're sticking with it even after the Hopkins signing. And, of course, we have Traylon Burks with a knee injury today. But Okonkwo. Yeah, it's not related to the knee injury. We did get a blow here.

I think there's kind of a limit to what this um because i think with the traylen burks injury it was maybe something that's going to be it's not not season ending it's you know something that's going to be an issue for a few weeks but not something major so we're still looking at chico conco as somebody who's going to be the third look in this offense behind uh deandre and Traylon Burks. And when he was that massive breakout player that everybody was loving as the guy that we wanted to draft, it was because he was going to be that second target recipient behind Traylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins signing just kind of killed it. But I still think that, you know, he's being overlooked at someone who does have the potential to break out into a low end tight end one. I think,

you know, the situation fortunately has capped that top five potential, but he can still be a very viable fantasy option, a low end tight end one, maybe finish between eight and 12. Because when you look at the production that he had last year, he gets judged by that 2022 production production because people underestimate the not impact but the usage that austin hooper had within that offense you know it's austin hooper so it's underwhelming for him as a player but he did exist he did take a good chunk of the tight end production he did technically have um i think in terms of average snaps he was slightly higher than chig okonkwo even though chig was the more productive tight end.

So when we're looking at that and we're removing Austin Hooper and we don't see any other tight end that has any significant pass-catching profile to replace that, the bulk tight end targets within that offense should go to Chig Okonkwo. And so while it's not going to get us that massive breakout season, we can have a little mini breakout here, And that's what I love for TIG. TIG, would you rather have Oconco or Dulcich? TIG.

Jamie? I should have said a little bit more. If this is a significant injury to Traylon Burks, that's going to keep him out more than just the initial report of a few weeks, which is going to probably get him back early in the season, then it's Oconco by a mile. And it's funny because these were two of my favorite breakouts prior to the Hopkins signing.

I think if you're hoping for Oconco and I go back to this and I know it's not apples to apples, but the season, I believe it was 2020, maybe 2021, but I think it was 2020 with Ryan Tannehill supporting three guys being fantasy productive. It was AJ Brown having a big season. It was Corey Davis having a pretty good season. And it was John Smith scoring, I think seven touchdowns. That's I think where Oconco is going to have to win because I don't think

he's going to get the volume unless just, this is a completely different offense with a new coordinator. I believe it's Tim Howard is the offense coordinator. Changing things from what things have been in the past where they're so run heavy and they're, you know, building off the, the, the run game to support the past game. So can all three guys have success? Now you could say also Deandre Hopkins has not been able to finish whether suspension or injury, uh, the last couple of years, is that something you have to worry about now

as he's entering age 30. And if he misses any time as well, thenako's numbers should blow up you know he you know adam i i think you you recall i spent some time talking to him um this off season at the place that he trains and he's understanding his role a little bit more and his opportunity a little more in building off of that and the guy who trained him said yeah you could probably get in the 40 catch range this year you know you'll have a good season he said 40 double it you know so is he going to get to, you know, north of 60 catches? I don't think that's the case, but could he score six or seven touchdowns? I think he could be one of those touchdown guys.

For Dolchess, for me, you know, it's, is Russell Wilson going to support all these guys? And is Sean Payton going to use his guy? And I know you brought this up, Adam. Adam Trautman's kind of been an in-the-way guy before. But not really. An in-the-way guy before. But not really. An in-the-way guy in terms of like... On the depth chart.

On the depth chart. This isn't Troutman versus Dolchus. This is Dolchus versus the field. And if Troutman's in Dolchus' way, then that's going to, I think, prohibit Dolchus from competing to where he should be competing. Because Tara's right. What he showed as a rookie and what he should be doing this year should be

phenomenal. I just don't know if Sean Payton putting his hand on his head and keeping him down and, uh, Russell Wilson, not being Russell Wilson to what we hope he could be is a problem. Yeah. All right.

Finally, with the last two guys on your list, Jake Ferguson and Luke Musgrave, who do you like better there? and Luke Musgrave. Who do you like better there? I like Musgrave. She's a Packers fan. You don't want me to... I can wax poetically on why I love him so much.

There might be a mild case of bias there because I have been paying very, very close attention, particularly to the Packers and all of their, uh, God, I just love the, I love the potential of the young talent that they have in there. And Luke Musgrave is for sure. One of those guys, um, obviously his draft profile in terms of stats was not as impressive as your guys like Michael Mayer. Um, so he was a little bit riskier of a prospect when you look at him in the potential that he has, the size, the athleticism, the speed, everything out of training camp and preseason, the reports have just been spectacular and

glowing. And the thing about him is that we don't have to worry about him being... Now, Tucker Kraft, like him as well, and he's got a good profile as well. But Musgrave has earned the tight end one position. This is depth charge. It's been announced. It's all good to go. So we've got a rookie with this fantastic profile

immediately stepping into the tight end one. We're seeing him shine. We're seeing him being used all over the field. He should be an integral part of the Packers offense. And what I really love about him and why I think that the breakout potential is so strong with him, even as a rookie, is the fact that,

you know, he profiles as a guy who can serve as a strong red zone target. We obviously saw Aaron Rodgers is gone. And we know that the offense could adjust a little bit. But we've seen the tight end usage within Matt LaFleur's offense. And the tight end has been at times a key red zone target. saw it with robert tonyan in 2020 where he had 11 touchdowns and just like 60 targets so we know that the upside is there and what i also love about it is that as i go on just glowingly about musgrave i just i love the fact that when we look at christian watson and romeo dobbs they're big guys like they're tall they're big guys but they're not those big body type of receiving options like an AJ Brown type. So if they're looking for that kind of big,

you know, big target in the red zone, I think that can be Musgraves. So yeah, you know, it depends on what type of league you're in. If you're in a deep league, you can draft him. If you're in a tight end premium league, you can draft him best ball for sure. Regular leaps, maybe you're not looking at that. Maybe you're taking a late round stab, but at the very least, you're keeping your eye on him for early waiver wire ads, but he's someone that you need to watch for sure. All right, guys. I'm going to give you three

more names here and tell me if you, you know, the likelihood, the breakout-o-meter, 0-10, how likely are they to break out, have a big year? Jawan Johnson. Six. Six. Eight. Oh, wow.

Cole Komet. Five. Yeah, six. Cade Otten. Two. Three. Okay. That's all I got for you.

Well, you should talk about Jake Ferguson. It's a good name to reference. I should talk about Jake Ferguson. You know what, name to reference. I should talk about Jake Ferguson. You know what, though, Jamie? You're going to call me out for something. I'm going to call you out for something. I just donated $20 to St. Jude. Bam.

Where are you? I'm winning 20-0. I'm proud of you. It's about time. Well, just tell me your credit card number. I'll make a donation for you right now. I'll do one better for you. 954.

No, no, no, no no where's that view button um all right jake ferguson yeah uh jamie give me a quick thought on jake ferguson well i i think you look at the quarterback tendencies and dac prescott's you know really leaned heavily on his tight ends you know whether it's jason whitton or dalton schultz as we've seen i know there's some concern about the quarter change, you know, not Kellen Moore not being there and Mike McCarthy taking over that role. But as much as there's going to be more opportunities for the wide receivers because of the additions that they made and a return of Michael Gallup, you know, maybe being closer to full strength.

But Brandon Cook's also clearly in C.D. Lamb. I think Ferguson is, you know, showing up in camp and that's hard to overlook. And Schoonmaker is not going to be 100% healthy, at least to the level I think that they want to trust him. So Ferguson's in a great spot. I think this is a second-year tight end who can surprise some people. So I would not overlook him as one of the late options in the greater late theory. Any final thoughts, Tara? Yeah, I completely agree. What little we saw out of him he was a reliable

tight end so um again he should step into that role it's going to make her at some point will be healthy but again he was more of a developmental type of uh receiving option as well so I do think that Jake Ferguson is going to have every opportunity here to kind of take over. Yeah. I just think Schaefer putting Jake Ferguson on the thumbnail for breakout tight ends is just a terrible choice. I mean, we're trying to get people to click on this stuff. You got to put Kyle Pitts there. And so he finally did. So, you know, I'm glad he finally saw the light, man. All right.

Well, listen, we actually raised 185 bucks in an hour, basically, tonight, maybe two hours for St. Jude. That's terrific. We've got the rest of the month to keep raising money for St. Jude. So please donate to our drafts-a-thon. It's all going to St. Jude. Go to tinyurl.com slash FFT donate to see all the items you can bid on, or just go to youtube.com slash fantasy football today during our shows or anytime and watch one of our shows and you can hit that donate button. All right. Have a great night, everybody. Thanks for being part of the Bonanza,

the Breakouts Bonanza. We'll talk to you on Friday with a mock draft and a mailbag. See you then.