Fantasy Football Today - Breakout WRs! Dotson? Jeudy? Moore? (08/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on guest spots on our show, Zoom calls with our analysts and more! https://tinyurl.com/fftdonate Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts Let's start with the sophomore wide receivers as we bring in Jake Ciely of The Athletic. We go through a bunch of Year 2 guys and compare them to older WRs being drafted in the same range. We also discuss Jerry Jeudy and D.J. Moore, but we don't necessarily view both of them as 2023 breakouts.  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Got some very talented second-year wide receivers ready to make a big leap like Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and maybe even Sky Moore later on in drafts. And Anjohan Dotson, Andrew Eglina, basically all of them. Maybe Traylon Burks would still be part of this discussion. He does have a knee injury. He might be ready for week one.

But there are other non-year two wide receivers that could take the big leap and become breakouts in 2023. It is breakout episode number three of the day. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg. And here's the all-in kid, Jake Seeley, at allinkid on Twitter. Fantasy writer for The Athletic. And Jake, friend of the program. Welcome back.

How are you? I appreciate it. That's what means the most. Friend of you guys. Friend of the program. Aw. There's nobody better than Jake. See, luck lies all around.

Jakey Jake. There's nobody better than Jake. I think friend of the program and friend of us are different. But sure. Oh, wow. See? Is that why you don't come to Flex anymore? Yeah, you sell out.

You just picked the worst weekend for me. You picked the worst. I always have family in town when it's Flex weekend. I wish I could come. Well, you know what it is? Jake sends out the invite, and Adam goes, hey, guys, yeah, come out for the weekend. My family's like, when should I come out? Oh, I have a conflict.

Yeah, when should we come up to visit? I haven't gotten the email from Jake yet. I'll let you know. Anyway, everybody. Why did he never come out with us? Are you on board with this year two breakout? Garrett Wilson. Oh, Garrett Wilson.

Absolutely. No question about it. I'm just going to go through all of them. That's easy. I'm going to go through all of them. Garrett Wilson. Everybody on board? Okay.

Of course. Yes. Yes. Christian Watson. Yes. Very much so. Chris Olave. Yes.

Yes. Uh, Drake London. No. Not as emphatically yes, but yes. At the right price, yes. Okay. I agree with Jamie. What's the right price?

What the price is right for Drake London? Round five. Wide receiver three. Yeah. Jamie, kind of same thing. Wide receiver three if I can get it. Wide receiver two if I'm running back heavy. Yeah, that's fair.

Jamison Williams. No. Second half breakup. Very late round pick. Round 11 plus. How good is he going to be in the second half? I was hoping for a run. Might have been here before, right?

My bigger concern is I would prefer if he was hurt because you can't stash him on your IR if you have IR. He actually is hurt now, but you still can't stash him. He hurt himself. Good time to get hurt, though, for him. Jahan Dotson. Emphatically 1,000 million percent yes. Wow.

I got to hear that. We did a draft last night on our live stream where it was Jahan Dotson was drafted at Terry McClure the first time I've seen that. I don't buy that yet, but I mean, look, he's got as much upside as McClure

and he may end up being better. I literally just drafted Jahan Dotson. Round eight, pick four. It's great value. 12- value 12 team league so what do you got jake uh why are you emphatically phenomenally amazingly so so it was part of my uh breakout piece and then i took it a step further because nando nando de fino friend of the show as well friend of all of ours uh wanted me to do bold predictions.

And my bold prediction for a wide receiver was Jahan Dawson as a top 10 wide receiver. Of course, it is super bold, but I give the reasons why. And the reason why is this. It goes actually to part with Sam Howell. I compared Sam Howell coming out of college to Ben Roethlisberger, though I think he's going to throw 4,500 yards, 30, 35 touchdowns. No. But the similarities,

and before everybody loses their mind and cuts off your program when I'm about to say this, I am not calling him Antonio Brown, but I am saying, stylistically, if you want Sam Howell to take that step and be the quarterback, Jahan Dotson's style, what he brings, similarly to Tyler Lockett, his teammate Terry McLaur, has some similarities. All those names. Sam Howell and John Dotson fit better as he could be his one. I think Terry McLaurin's peaked, and I think Dotson fits better,

and he was already the best end zone threat last year, even with Terry McLaurin. So I think there is easily top 20 upside. Okay, and you do have him? You have him ranked ahead of McLaurin? Yep. Okay. It's super close, super close, though. Yeah, and you do have him. You have him ranked ahead of McLaurin? Yep. Okay. It's super close, super close, though.

Yeah, and boy, if there was ever a route in a preseason game that could sell me on a player, it was what Jahan Dotson did over the weekend. He absolutely humiliated somebody. It was terrific. All right, let's keep going here down the list of your two wide receivers. Do we buy the breakout? And where am I?

I'm at Traylon Burks. Was that before today? No, I think this could be an opportunity for him to be a super late round pick. You might be able to get him in round 12 or something in a 12-team league now. The value is already incredible. So yeah, any later that you get him, it's

great. He went in round nine, pick ten in the draft that I'm in as we sit here. And who did he go ahead of? He went ahead of who did he go ahead of? I'm sorry. He went ahead of Elijah Moore, Nico Collins, Rashad Bateman, Romeo Dobbs,

Jameson Williams, we just talked about him, DJ Chark, Jacoby Myers. Do I need to keep going? No. The upside's greater than all those, which is why it is great value should be going there obviously there's more risk than some but the upside's significantly more all right that's trailing burks does anybody see like a big impactful season from george pickens or sky more top 24 mostly starting every week from Pickens or Sky more? More more

than Pickens. They're close for me. I love Pickens but I love more too. I think that they're both going to have good volume that'll make them at worst number three receivers in fantasy. I think Pickens has it

in his profile, especially with the touchdowns that he can make, a low-end number two wide receiver. Happy to take him in round seven. I worry about the volume for Pickens. Go ahead, Jimmy. I think that's just the biggest issue. He's, at best, I think, probably averaging five targets a game. I mean, Deontay Johnson's going to obliterate him in targets.

And Pat Fryer moves maybe close to him. And so, you know, in an offense targets a game. I mean, Deontay Johnson's going to obliterate him in targets. And Pat Fryer moves maybe close to him. And so, you know, in an offense that we're going to find out quickly what this Steelers offense looks like because I mean, the first preseason game, they were very pass heavy. And we talked about this, Adam, recently that prior to Kenny Pickett's concussion, which kind of

coincided with TJ Watt coming back, but they kind of just went into let's play defense and run the ball. Um, they're, they're going to trust Kenny Pickett more to what extent though, that's going to, I think depend where you, what you think of George Pickens. He's been a highlight reel in training camp with a lot of push-offs and a lot of offensive pass interference to get, uh, the, the plays that he's been making and the safety in the preseason game took a terrible route to allow him to score a 33-yard touchdown on his long catch.

But I think if you're looking at the two receivers in Pittsburgh, three targets to Deontay Johnson, one target to George Pickens. Expect that a lot, a 3-1 ratio. I don't think it'll be 3-1 at all. Did you say he ran a bad route? No, no, the safety took a terrible route. Oh, yeah, the safety was awful. And listen, all credit where it's due or blame or whatever the hell I'm trying to

say. Pickens was not fast racing to the end zone. He didn't need to be. He was cruising. He was like, I'm gone. Maybe that's fine. I love the contested catches.

I love the playmaking ability. I think in year two, he takes a big step forward. Same thing with Kenny Pickett. And I, you know, I, I did some research looking at dionte and

how inexplosive he's been unexplosive he's been i swear i talk for a living um he's he has not been an explosive receiver he really wasn't last year um the year before we could say well rothlisberger was under center that's why he just didn't get the chance i think that's just what he is is a short area target who doesn't make a ton of explosive plays. And now, not only can Pickens make those explosive plays, laugh all you want, Allen Robinson's another short area target, Friar Muth is a short and intermediate target.

They might spread the ball around more than you might expect. And I'm kind of nervous about Deontay. We've talked about this. Yeah. All right. I'm nervous about the entire crew. If you took talent alone, it's pickings. Could not agree more with Jamie.

And actually, I go with Dave as in coupling the arguments together. The usage in... It's only week one of the preseason. That probably could mean nothing. We'll see in week two. But to rotate all three, including Allen Robinson, through there, and then you add Friermuth, and you add Najee Harris and Jordan Warren out of the backfield, I think Sky Moore steps into the Juju Smith-Schuster role and has more upside than Juju.

Yeah, exactly. And what does it come down to? If it's two uncertainties and we're kind of predicting hopefully Sky Moore's number two, we're hoping that George Pickens is one or two, I want to go down to the quarterback. And it's by a mile, and it has to do with Patrick Mahomes, but it also has to do with, I'll happily be wrong on this, I don't think Kenny Pickett has it. And that's what it really comes down to as well. Yeah, I should mention, I didn't mention on the Wednesday morning show that Kadarius Toney's timetable is uncertain. They certainly did not commit to him being ready for week one. So the reports were that they expect him to be ready for week one, but I think it was their GM, Chiefs GM, spoke today

and didn't commit to that. Jamie read something. What was it, Arrowhead Pride? Yeah. Said they wouldn't be surprised if he got activated off PUP and then put on short-term IR. I don't – or IR. So I don't know.

I think that's – but anyway, keep that in mind for Sky Moore. Let's play a game of second-year receiver versus old veteran. Oldish veteran. Garrett Wilson or Devontae Adams? Wilson. I take Adams by a hair. It's Adams. Chris Olave or Tee Higgins?

I have them back to back. Higgins one spot over Olave. Same. I believe I have Olave over Higgins. Christian Watson or Keenan Allen? Watson. Allen and PPO. Watson in every other format.

Watson in every format. Jahan Dotson or Marquise Brown? Dotson. I feel dirty. Do I have to say it? Are you going to make me say it? Yeah. Brown over Dotson.

How about Drake London or DeAndre Hopkins? Hopkins. Drake London or Terry McLre Hopkins? Hopkins. Drake London or Terry McLaurin? London. London by, I think, one spot, if I'm thinking correctly, off the top of my head. I have McLaurin one spot ahead of London.

Last one. George Pickens or Michael Pittman? Michael Pittman. Pickens. I have Pickens over Pittman? Michael Pittman. Pickens. I have Pickens over Pittman. Okay. We'll take a quick break here and come back and we'll talk about Jerry Judy and some others on this list.

And we will be right back. Before we do that, though, I want to tell everybody there's something you've heard about the FFT Open. We've already sold out our spots on that. There used to be something called the FFT Open that's now renamed Fantasy Football Today Championship, I believe we're calling it. It's our guy Casey Simons. He

runs it. We're raising money for St. Jude. It's going to be an optional donation to be in these leagues, but we'd appreciate it. There's going to be a Google form. I'm going to have it posted in our Facebook group, among other places. Over the next week or so, we're going to be getting everybody in. So you have two

options. You can either be in a managed 12-team league that Casey runs a tournament for, where it's kind of like Scott Fishbowl, kind of like the FFT Open, where eventually there's one champion, but you'll be in a 12-team league. Or you can be in the best ball tournament, and

Casey runs that as well. So you can tell him which you prefer. We can raise a lot of money for St. Jude. ball tournament. And Casey runs that as well. So you can tell him which you prefer. You know, we can raise a lot of money for St. Jude. You don't have to donate, but we'd appreciate it. We'll give you a link to donate. And yeah, that's coming up. So just be on the lookout for that. I think it might be pinned in our Facebook group. If not, it will be. If you're interested in competing against other FFT listeners and viewers, that is right up your alley. We'll take a quick break and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe.

Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Almost everybody on the list is a year two wide receiver. So how about Jerry Judy, Dave? He's not.

He's year four now, right? And he was on our breakouts list last year. And he had kind of a sneaky breakout because he left three games super early. And in the other games that he didn't leave early, he averaged over 15 PPR fantasy points per game, more than Jalen Waddell averaged for the full season, more than I think Devante Smith.

So he had a good year. Maybe people don't realize it, but you love Jerry Judy. So discuss. High target per route run rate. We're talking about 22.3% in his last five. It's the same that he had in his first 10 games. I think Sean Payton knows the best way to use Judy

is just by giving him routes that he's best at. And he's a really good route runner. And I think he's just going to lead the Broncos in targets. I think they're going to have to throw a little bit more than they want to. And I think he's got a shot to put up career best numbers. His career best numbers to beat, it's not that high. It's 67 catches. It's just over 1,000 yards.

It's six touchdowns. So if he gets 1,100, 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns, that's a new career high for Jerry Judy. I think he can get there, assuming that he stays healthy. Anyone not feeling it with Judy? Maybe slightly better. I'm not seeing a big breakout. Not that I disagree with David.

Jerry Judy is the player. I still have concerns that I was champion. I was like, hey hey i'll take last year's trash or russell wilson now that sean payton can probably get a little bit more out of him but so far hasn't looked great you know i'm not closing the book yet i just russell wilson leased through that first week and what we've seen off season so far it doesn't look like he's that much better than he looked last year it looked like he just might have hit the wall it all comes down to how you feel about russ it really does yeah because if if you watch him play he's jerry judy he's great it's it's his russell wilson going to at all look like he did in his seattle days and look the last two games were

were much better um but is is that what we're going to see because the first preseason game was not encouraging and i know they were missing mcvincy and you know they're still working on some things and so take that for what it's worth uh but that's not i think what's what's sean payne signed up for and i'm gonna guess that he's you know not happy with the performance so far the the nice takeaway is the touchdown that russell wilson threw it did go to jerry judy it was against probably like you know fourth spring corner that's not making the team. I'm surprised you're not bringing up the drop that Judy had. Well, that's part of

his game. He's not without flaws, but it's a pretty good place to be if you get him at the right price. I think the people that are in on Judy are going to take him in round three, especially when you start to see... We see this all the time, Adam, in almost every draft. We talk about this in every draft.

Once you get past Higgins and Olave, those are pretty much the two. Smith, Higgins, Olave, whatever order. Beginning part, end of round two, beginning part of round three. That's where the mystery starts. Here's the good news. He's not bailing on routes like Cortland Sutton's doing. That's at least a good thing. That's true.

I think that... If we're comparing Judy to Cortlin Sutton at this point, we've lost on Jerry Judy. I think the thing that you're getting into, it's that round three, four wide receiver range. And I got this question, Adam, by our buddy Josh over at Hugo Boss, who asked – he's got the first pick in the Keeper League, and he was looking at – he asked me about, should you go Christian Watson at the turn? And I said, who's got the first pick in the Keeper League, and he was looking at, he asked me

about, should he go Christian Watson at the turn? And I said, who's available? And he said, Judy and Keenan Allen and these guys. And he's like, I just want the upside of Christian Watson. So you buy into something like that. Do you buy into Calvin Ridley? Do you buy into Debo Samuel, DK Metcalf, the guys that I think a lot of people are split on?

That's where Judy lives, in that range but you gotta tell me if you're taking him ahead of those guys i'm i'm not taking him i'm not taking him ahead of uh ridley i'm not taking him ahead of those other three that i mentioned but he's right after well here adam i have one can i throw out a toss up to them tyler lockett or jerry judy i gotta go judy Jerry Judy. I got to go Judy. That's Judy by a mile for me. Yeah, ADP, they're not even close, I think. I don't know what you use for ADP. Everybody uses different

sources. On Fantasy Pros, Judy's RB23, and Lockett is RB30, but significantly lower. For us, it'd be more like Metcalf versus Judy. Really? Yeah. And we're high versus Judy. Really? Yeah. And we're high on Judy.

I mean, I'd want to come away with him in my draft. I feel good about him because you said, Jamie, it's how you feel about Russell Wilson. Well, Russell Wilson was so bad last year, and I already told you what Jerry Judy did when he was healthy. The last five games were great. Not just that, but for the whole season, other than those three games. So what is it about Lockett?

Is it Geno or is it Lockett? It's everybody else in that offense. It's not Geno. It's JSN, I think. It's JSN. And he's 31, or he's 30 or 31. He's 31. I don't even care about his age as much. Look, I love Lockett. I think he's a great value. We're talking about breakouts. He's not a breakout. He's

broken out. No, of course. He's like the best value every year. We used to say it about Jarvis Lry. Now it's Tyler Lockett. He's outscored Metcalf each of the last two years on a per-game basis. It's just the new direction that Seattle's going in. JSN is there. Two running backs that they drafted who can catch balls out of the backfield. They still have Walker. I'm a little worried about him getting the same type of target volume. He's right around seven targets per game, seven and a half per per game i don't know if he can get quite that high i think judy can

get that high i have no problem with downgrading lock it off last year i guess just i have them a lot closer than you guys do oh i don't think it's downgrading from last year it's it's downgrading from this year you know like it's it's just like it's it's this is not Geno's not good. This is Geno and this offense going to support all three guys. So if you're down completely on one, which I don't know if you are, Jake, if you're down on Metcalf, you're down on Smith and Jigba, which totally makes sense. Smith and Jigba. Then it's fine.

Then you're going to be in the Lockett camp. I think that's probably where you and I are different. Like I think Lockett's going to be okay. Like I don't want to run away from Lockett because of the jigging, but I think that's just a significant problem. We've never seen this in Tyler Lockett's time there, certainly DK Metcalf's time there, that a third receiver has this talent. And it's not just the three of them.

Don't disagree. He was my top wide receiver, so I think the risk is there. But it's not like the minimal passes that will go to the running backs will still be there. The minimal passes to the tight ends will still be there. It's just now you're cannibalizing all three of these guys. The thing I like to say with the 49ers and Seahawks, they're such a victim of their own success.

There's a lot of mouths to feed in just a very good scenario. It's tough for fantasy. I think it's worth pointing out, and Jake, I think this will make you smile. In the draft I'm in right now, Judy went with the first pick in round five. Lockett, the fourth pick in round five. All right, I've got to ask you guys about one more potential breakout here. DJ Moore, who sees a big year. Hey, did you see that catch and run, huh?

Wasn't even a good throw. Here's the thing. No, I'm laughing because this is going to be the breakout from. The breakout from what? He's already been great. Like it's just the touchdowns weren't there. Like I go back to, I used to say every single year, it's like, I'm done trying to figure out DJ more weekend and week out. If he's going to finish 10th or 40th, he's just, he's going to be wide receiver 20 for me every single week. Cause

I'm not trying to predict the variance. I have no problem with him. The bears. I think he's going to be around wide receiver 20 again, which is a bounce back from last year. He's going to get all the volume. I think Justin Fields was fine, even if he doesn't take a step forward to get him back to being wide receiver 20. I'm not concerned about DJ Moore, but I don't think, what is he breaking out to? He's going to get 1,400 yards and six touchdowns? I just think he's going to bounce back. That would be a career year for him, obviously. He had 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns would be a career year. Look, he's only had one year with more than 120, or two years with over 120, one year with more than 140 targets. I think that's on the plate for him. I just think that he's just going to get a ton of volume

in Chicago. And Fields has, forget about the preseason game, because that's not an indication of what Fields is. I think Fields has looked good for the most part. I was there in June. He had some bad throws, a lot of young quarterbacks do, but he's not the mess that he was as a passer last year. And certainly as his rookie year. And I think DJ more with a floor of 14 PPR points per game could break out

and could be, could outperform an ADP of round five, which is where I got him in today's draft. I'm a wide receiver in 19. Are you higher or lower, Dave? I'm higher. Okay. DJ Moore. Yeah, very different backgrounds for Jake Seeley and Jamie Eisenberg. Listen, I have the best background on our show.

I disagree. I think we should be able to pick Jamie's background. No, my background is perfect. It will go back up by the end of the day tomorrow. I also think, like, I want to get a bookshelf, but I don't want to read any books, and I certainly don't want to buy any books. So I think that I would like to make, or I would like some company to make.

Do you see a book behind me? No, but Jamie's got a bookshelf. So first off, so this is, unfortunately, I got to move this again in a few months. But the book, so I have books down at the bottom of the thing, mostly at the bottom of the bookshelf, mostly because I needed a place to put them. It wasn't for anything for our show purposes. Right. The books are not going back. You want to see what's hiding at the bottom of my bookshelf mostly because of i needed a place to put them it wasn't for anything for for our show purposes right the books are not going back hiding at the bottom of my bookshelf is comics cocktails of course i just have a genius idea and anyone you're you're free to steal it because

i'll never put it into motion i i like to say that i invented netflix because when i was a kid i said man blockbuster should really just deliver and then then Netflix came along and I lost billions of dollars. You're like Seth Green in The Italian Job. Sure. But my idea is to sell a bookshelf that has fake books on it. It has just the covers of the books to make it look like you've read them. And they come with the bookshelf. It's already assembled that way. And you look well read. Can you open it up to storage behind the books because that would be great well now we get two billion dollar idea i love it i love it uh great stuff thank you for the breakout wide receivers and yes thomas schaefer i want a company to build a bookshelf with fake books built in it that That is my idea. TM, just like the breakouts.

Anyway, that's Jake Seeley. Follow him at AllInKid. Check out his stuff on The Athletic. And we've got Tara Roberts in five minutes coming on to talk breakout tight ends, if that even should be plural. Not yet. All right, we'll talk to you then on Fantasy Football. I think, as Nando told me, Jake is doing such a great job.

He can talk about ducks all he wants. Later.