Fantasy Football Today - Breakouts and Must-Have Quarterbacks! (08/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 18, 2022

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on pre-draft calls with our experts, a spot in our Podcast League, a guest spot on our show and more! https://ebay.to/3p4Dc3Z We must have Jalen Hurts on our Fantasy teams! Who else do we love at the quarterback position? Special guest Tera Roberts joins us to talk QBs. Tera is high on Derek Carr this season (5:00), but Heath is not quite there. We also talk about Trey Lance, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and more! Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Breakouts Bonanza, the first of four episodes dropping today here on Thursday. Recording this actually on Tuesday night. Adam Azer with Jamie Isenberg, Heath Cummings, and special guest CBS Sports contributor Tara Roberts. You can find her on Twitter at It's Tara Time. We've got not just breakouts, but must-haves. They may not necessarily qualify as breakouts,

but players we just really want to have at quarterback. So let's talk about all 15 of them, guys. There are just so many quarterbacks that we want this year. And actually, Jamie, let me throw it to you. This is the dilemma with this show today. There are so many quarterbacks that I and every fantasy manager that wants to draft. How do you know when it's time to take a quarterback?

We're going to talk about Jalen Hurts. We all love Jalen Hurts. How can I justify taking Justin Herbert, for example, when I could take Jalen Hurts 30 picks later? But then again, I could take Russell Wilson 15 picks after that. Or I could keep waiting and take Trey Lance 15 to 20 picks after that. So it's like you can fall in love so easily at this position. How do you know when the right time is to take that quarterback?

I think, first off, if you know your league, your league mates, and when they typically tend to draft quarterbacks, that's a good place to start. Because if you know that you're going to see an early run on the Allens, Herberts, and Mahomes of the world, and then there's usually a lull, then you can wait and see if you can get Jalen Hurts at a discounted price or Russell Wilson or Trey Lance or Tom Brady, some of the guys that are going a little bit later. But if you know everybody in your league is going to make that strong push to get a guy early, and then you know that some of these other guys that are certainly getting a lot of buzz, Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance

being probably the two most, then you probably need to go a little bit sooner than you tend to. We've been doing a lot of analyst drafts where we know how we all draft, you know, at this point. And so we all know that, okay, once Alan comes off the board,

then there's the trickle down effect, but it's not necessarily a mad rush early on. So I think knowing your league is important. If you don't know your league, then you sort of have to just kind of, you know, jump in when you feel the most comfortable on whatever quarterback that you're after,

you know, and, and this is where tears come in, you know, so take the guy at the end of a tier and hopefully you get somebody that you're really excited about, as opposed to just settling after, you know, and this is where tears come in, you know, so take the guy at the end of a tier. And hopefully you get somebody that you're really excited about, as opposed to just settling for, you know, in the settle for guys are still pretty good. But you don't necessarily want to feel that come out of your draft feeling that way. You're just settling for somebody you want to be somebody you want to have somebody you're excited about.

Tara, do you ever find yourself drafting Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? I personally don't just because I don't see the value fall enough for me. I tend to be someone that wants to see the value fall. I want to hit those players where it's going to make the most difference in my lineup. So unfortunately, with those guys and a lot of the drafts that we're doing, the value is not really falling. Maybe on a Justin Herbert, but with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, I'm not seeing a lot.

So Herbert's probably the highest that I'm typically going. Let's all give two quarterbacks that you either draft a lot, that you think is a breakout or you think is a must-have quarterback Heath let's start with you give me two quarterbacks I generally target Jalen Hurts in round six but if he's not if I miss him then I try to get Tom Brady in round eight is that just copy and paste from the quarterback preview okay that answered your question as well right yes it did all right hey hurts in round six or if not tom brady in round eight tara how about you give me two quarterbacks that you target or must have uh my first one is derrick carr uh i'd say he's a late round target for me um and it feels weird saying that he's a late round breakout target for me but

that's one that is really big for me. And then the other one, of course, is obviously Jalen Hurts for me as well. I think he has the ability to be QB1 this year. I think that's the ceiling for him, and he's got a very nice floor as well. So it's Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr for me if I'm waiting. Okay, Jamie, how about you? Two quarterbacks. I mean, Trey Lance is obvious at this point for me. I think the upside is a top five guy, he could be this year's version of maybe not to the same heights of second year Lamar Jackson, second year Patrick Mahomes, second year Jalen Hurts, of a guy that's going relatively later and could be one of the best at his position.

So he's the first one that I typically tend to, at this point, I'm being a little bit more aggressive drafting him in the early part of this process. It was more, okay, let's just wait it out and take him. But to go back to what I said before about settling for somebody, I think Tara mentioned one that's a perfect candidate in Derek Hart. The other one that kind of falls in the same category,

same bucket, same blanket, is Kirk Cousins. And, you know, the upside is there with what he's done in the past as a fantasy quarterback, but now it could be magnified because of a better coach and, you know, some pretty great weapons as well. Cousins or Carr? For me, it's Cousins, but I think they're almost like 1 and 1A, depending on how you want to view them.

Heath? Cousins by a couple of rounds. Ooh, all right, yeah, this is going to be great. Tara, Cousins or Carr? Carr for me. All All right. Yeah, this is going to be great. Tara, Cousins or Carr? Carr for me. All right. So, Tara, stand up for Derek Carr. Heath is not in love with him this year.

You obviously, he's one of the quarterbacks you mentioned. So, I'm going to tell you this. For Derek Carr, if you look at, this is, you know, what I do. If you look at the last seven games of 2020, including a game he left with an injury, and the first seven games of 2021, that a game he left with an injury, and the first seven games of 2021, that was before the Henry Ruggs incident. His 17-game pace was 5,119 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

So that was really phenomenal stuff. Season kind of went south when Ruggs was no longer on the team and then Waller followed up with the injury after that. What were you going to say, Heath? That's still probably like QB9, right? 5,100 yards,

28 touchdowns. I'd be surprised. Yeah, it is, but it's the touchdowns that are the issue. 28 touchdowns not great yeah go ahead um yeah i can make the case for derrick carr um and you know as he's mentioned that it does kind of work out a little bit funny because he has a high volume pass and i think a lot of people don't realize how he actually technically is a very high volume passer but the problem is the touchdowns with him. And I actually think that

Derek Carr is going to have a pretty significant breakout year in comparison to what we've seen, because if you go back and you look at last year, you mentioned those first seven games, the pace for his yardage was incredible, but the touchdowns that he had was so incredibly low because they had terrible red zone efficiency for the entire year. The Raiders as a whole, they were 29th in red zone efficiency and kind of put that in perspective of just how bad that was. They're 10 and 17 last year. They were a playoff team 29th and the playoff team and the teams that were ahead of them in terms of red zone efficiency were the teams were like the Atlanta Falcons, the Carolina Panthers, Washington, Houston, Jacksonville. So

it's a really weird situation that they were in last year where they were actually successful. And it was just the touchdowns that were missing. And I think the addition of Devante Adams is going to make a major difference and be that thing that pushes Carr from having that ceiling where he's probably going to end up as QB 10 to being able to get as high as technically maybe QB 5, QB 6, if everything can go the right way. So that's what I see with Derek Carr and why I think he can be a breakout this year, because I think that combination of the addition of Devante Adams, the return of Darren Waller, who we mentioned was absent a lot of those last seven games of the year last year,

and Hunter Renfro there as well. It's just going to be a fantastic combination for Carr to be able to take advantage, high volume, and finally get those touchdowns that can push him over the edge. And Heath, what's your rebuttal? He's not going to run at all. So he's already limited in how good he could be. I have a hard time seeing how he could be better than Stafford was last year.

And I think that there's risk that he just continues to not be good in the red zone and, or that Josh McDaniels just does what he does in the last couple of years. And they just run the ball a bunch in the red zone. And he has another 5,000 yard season or 4,900 yards. He probably hasn't had a 5,000 yard season, 4900-yard season where he throws 26, 27 touchdown passes, and he's just a borderline number one quarterback. It is pretty interesting because Stafford had 4,900 yards and 41 touchdowns, and he was QB 8 per game. So if Carr ends up being QB 8 per game, it's going to be a good pick.

Right, but that's a lot. 41 touchdowns, yeah, it's a lot. Jalen Hurts, Jamie, is there any risk? Because it seems like we all just want to have Jalen Hurts. Is there any risk to Jalen Hurts? Do you need to back him up? I don't think you do. But again, it goes back to kind of knowing your league a little bit

and how many people take two quarterbacks. So this guy, yeah, you know, you, you, you, you, you like to do that. And it's, you know, not, not a horrible thing. If you know, everybody else is probably, or half your league is going to do that. It's a little bit easier when you know, there's going to be a Derek Carr, a Justin Fields. Um, you know, I, I drafted Trey Lance in the Flex Leagues, which is a league of other analysts. And I had my choice with my last pick of Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr. They were all available in the last round.

At the time, this was when Stafford's elbow injury, so I took Cousins. But Justin Fields wasn't drafted. Trevor Lawrence wasn't drafted. You know, there are a lot of good backup quarterbacks. So I don't necessarily, you know, fear Jalen Hurts at this point. You know, I think any thought of him not having the job is out the window for anybody who thought that. I think there's clearly the upside of what he can do as a rusher

because we know that that's there. You see what he did as a passer in the first half of the season last year when they were kind of figuring things out. And then you saw the first preseason game. know that was without aj brown and it was just a string of passes all in a row eight passes in a row and it looked impressive and so the weapons are better the uh the rushing that we love is there and i think you know everything that you've heard about him uh the maturity is better the the the fitness level is better you know he's he's done everything he can to put himself in position to be uh you know to take a step as an nfl quarterback and certainly as a

fantasy quarterback as well i and i this will not be received well probably but i think he has basically the same floor as kyler murray yeah i would agree with that i think when you look at last year um and we can i think we can look at last year and see an actual baseline floor for him because after week eight was that time period where they decided to do the reverse, greatly reduce the pass volume and then focus on the run. And after week eight through the remainder of the season, he averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game. So I think that's pretty safe to say that's his floor in the worst case scenario, because we've established that he's not going to get pulled. Now, are you using just because we are usually using six point per passing touchdown leagues.

Is that six or four point? That's four. OK. Yeah. OK. Yeah. Hurts also didn't have Devante Smith in that preseason game and his rushing, by the way. I don't know.

You know, I think him and Trey Lance both agree or disagree, guys. Both have a thousand yard rushing potential because for for Hertz, that's what we saw in his four starts as a rookie, and he got pulled early in one of those. And that's really what we saw before his high ankle sprain. His rushing went down last year when he had a high ankle sprain for four games. I was dealing with that. But I think both those guys have 1,000-yard rushing potential. Do you guys agree or disagree with that?

That'd be Hertz and Lance. I agree. I think there are four quarterbacks that? Debbie hurts and Lance. I agree. I think there are four quarterbacks that can run for a thousand yards that they play 17 games without any injury concern. And that would be Lamar Jackson, obviously Jalen hurts, Trey Lance and Justin Fields. I think,

you know, fields and we've noted this the last six healthy games, he was on pace for like 960 some on yardsodd yards rushing over a 17-game season. And so he's got it there. You can throw Kyler in there if you want to, but I just don't know if he's going to run as much anymore. But I think those four guys, you know, and this is why we covet them. It's the reason why they're difference makers,

and they don't have to be 5,000-yard passers. And you had to hope that there's going to be rushing touchdowns on top of it. It's not just rushing yards. It's empty production. But, I mean, man If Hurts does what he's capable of doing, 4,500 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing is certainly on the table. Another good thing about

those guys, the three you mentioned, well, Lamar Jackson too, they all throw the ball downfield. Trey Lance had the third highest rate of pass attempts of 20 or 25 yards downfield in the NFL behind Drew Locke and Russell Wilson. So Lance airs it out. Jalen Hurst was among the leaders in air yards per pass attempt. So was

Justin Fields. So that's how you make up for it. If you can complete those passes, not throwing all that much, get some yards. What's the best value in this group? Is it round six in a 12-team league? I'll just use the actual ADP on Fantasy Pros. Is it Jalen Hurts, 65th? Russell Wilson, 81st? Or Trey Lance, 105th? Lance for me. Yeah, Trey Lance.

I'm going to actually look, because I think it's probably Hurts for me. Lance is 100 and what? Fourth, fifth? Yeah, that's almost exactly where I have him. So I'd say Hurts for me. Lance is 100 and what? Fourth, fifth? Yeah, that's almost exactly where I have him, so I'd say Hurts. And when you look at the top quarterbacks, is there anyone,

Tara, I'm going to read you the top 12 quarterbacks. Is there anyone that you just don't draft that you're not excited to draft? Josh Allen. Forget about add value. I just don't really want him on my team. I'm not excited. There are too many other exciting options.

Josh Allen. We like him, right? Justin. You stop me when I say a name that you're just like, not in on him. Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott,

Tom Brady, Trey Lance, Matthew Stafford. I would have to stop it at Stafford, maybe. The only one that kind of maybe rings a little bit of a red flag is Dak Prescott just because of the receiver situation over there. But outside of that, I mean, there's just so many options within this top 12. Dak Prescott is kind of boring. Not saying he's bad, guys, but he's a little boring. Do you guys ever. Dak Prescott is kind of boring. Not saying he's bad, guys, but he's a little boring. Do you guys ever draft Dak Prescott? Not much yet, and honestly, that's where I'm struggling with Lance right now, because I

have Dak at 9 and Lance at 10. And man, I want to put Lance at 10. You can draft away from your rankings, right? Because you take Lance, and then you take someone else if you have to. But, I mean, just from a ranking standpoint, it's like... Yeah, yeah. Dak is great.

The thing about Dak is he's great. And, you know, Terry made a great point about the receiving core. But it could be one of those situations where that helps his draft value because if you can wait out Dak Prescott, you're still going to get, as you see what the projections are here, a guy that can be 4,530, you know, 35 total touchdowns,

that Michael Gallup might be ready by week two, and Jalen Tolbert might be legit, and, you know, they still have the potential because they're not afraid to, you know. I mean, everybody from Antonio Brown begging to be on the Cowboys to Will Fuller to Odell Beckham, you know, they could still make a splashy move or trade or find somebody off waivers. That ends up filling that role, you know, until they're healthy. But, you know, between what they get out of their backfield, their tight end is still, I think, underappreciated.

I don't want to say undervalued, but underappreciated. And I think CeeDee Lamb is underappreciated as the number one guy. So Dak is kind of just steady Eddie. Like you said, he's not at this point exciting, but I have no problem with him as my number one guy for sure. And I actually have him ahead of Burrow and Wilson, so I haven't drafted him that much because I have Hurts and Brady ahead of him. But I think he's underrated and still think he could be a top two or three quarterback this year. What are the breakout

potentials or who's the most likely to be a breakout difference maker this year? Tua Tungabailoa, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence. They're all outside the top 15, but inside the top 20 in ADP, most likely to be a difference maker, T tongue of ILOA, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence. It's gotta be fields, right? I mean, just with the rushing potential,

you know, he doesn't have the weapons. I mean, imagine if he did, uh, of those other two guys, you know, even,

even Lawrence. But, um, the only thing that scares me about Justin Fields at this point, I don't, I don't care that they didn't really add anything to him. You know, Byron Pringle and Tajay Sharp and Vilas Jones Jr.,

you know, Equinemius St. Brown. It's not exciting by any stretch. And it's scary to think what happens if Mooney or Komet go down. It's really that offensive line. That just could be atrocious. And so it could limit what his upside could be, his ceiling could be. But, you know,

even with Tua getting the weapons and Mike McDaniel and Trevor Lawrence getting an upgraded receiving core as well, they're not going to do what Justin Fields does with his legs, and that sets them apart. The thing is, if you're talking about a six-point-per-passing touchdown league, if Justin Fields rushes for 600 more yards than Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence had

334 rushing guards last year. Let's give Lance, or let's give Fields 934 yards. So that's 60 points. Do you think Trevor Lawrence makes up for that in yards? How many more touchdowns on the ground? Two for Lawrence last year. No, I'm saying how many.

Touchdowns are a part of that as well. If he's got three times as many rushing yards, let's say six rushing touchdowns in two. So now we're at 84 points. Do you think Lawrence makes up for that in passing yards and passing touchdowns? No. Okay. That's pretty much going to do it.

I would rather... I think Tua has a better chance than Lawrence. Heath, give me a 2QB kind of target that could be a breakout. Tua or Lawrence. No. I think if you were...

Breakout suggests younger. Or must have. It's fine. Can Baker Mayfield be a breakout again? Yes. Let's do it. Full season. Put it together.

They throw 600 passes like they did last year. And Baker is his rookie or 2020 self. Maybe he's just the every other year, even odd guy. He could absolutely sneak into like the top 15. And finally, Tara, Jamie, what about Zach Wilson? What about Mac Jones? I know Zach Wilson unlikely to be ready for week one, but Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, anyone else I'm forgetting in the young quarterback club, any chances for breakouts? Heath, boy, you're a loud water drinker.

Very loud. Is this thing loud? Yeah. Sorry. Tara, what do you think? It's Davis Mills for me. I love what he did once he was finally established as the starting quarterback at the end of the season last year, and I think that he did once he was finally established as the starting quarterback

at the end of the season last year, and I think that he does have the potential to be very usable as a QB2 and super flex. Jamie, anyone to add or are we good? I think, you know, just again, I'll go back to the running guys, and if Mariota or Ritter, depending on how you want to approach it, you know, Mariota keeps the job or whenever Ritter takes over, you've got to glimpse down the preseason game.

You know, Mariota has shown you that in his career. And I think Ritter will do some of that as well. And so if you want to take a four quarterback approach in your two quarterback or super flex league and just take both Falcons guys because you probably get them cheap as your third option, you might have a potential starter there at some point during the season.

Thank you to Jamie, Heath, and Tara. Thank you all for listening and watching. We've got three more breakout episodes coming at you on Thursday. Running back, wide receiver, and tight end. We'll talk to you then on Fantasy Football today.