Fantasy Football Today - Bust Proof: Players With (Almost) No Downside! (06/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 1, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  While injuries can derail anyone's season, we're going to take injuries out of the equation today as we try to identify bust proof players. Is Jalen Hurts (2:15) the most bust proof quarterback? Is Joe Burrow as safe as it gets (12:30)? Hear arguments for and against each player we discuss ... News and notes (21:00) on a potential breakout wide receiver, Antonio Gibson and more. Then Dave tells you why Austin Ekeler (27:05) is the most bust proof player while Dan and Adam bring up what could go wrong. Then we discuss Saquon Barkley (35:00). Is he really bust proof with the addition of Darren Waller? ... We end the show with Travis Kelce (45:30) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (51:35). Are they super safe? We talk about age with Kelce and aDOT with St. Brown. Then we read your Apple Podcast questions (58:15) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, what's up, everybody? Welcome in. It is Fantasy Football Today, and it is Thursday, everybody? Welcome in. It is Fantasy Football today, and it is Thursday, and it's June, June 1st. Welcome to the show. I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard. Heath Cummings unavailable today. Jamie Eisenberg unavailable today.

We scraped the middle of the barrel. Oh, my God. What an intro. Dan Schneier. Dan Schneier is here at Dan Schneier NFL. What's up, dude? I was. Now I'm like, man, the bottom of the belly. At least you correct.

The middle. Listen, those who the real the real meatheads of the show. And we're talking about meatheads before the show dave's getting back in the gym lifting hard today we debated if adam's ever lifted a weight in his life we're still not sure but the real meatheads of fft know that beyond the box score there's something this is not the bottom of the barrel okay it's the middle of the barrel i like how you corrected yourself adam if he's the middle of the barrel dare i ask who the bottom of the barrel is no we we don't go to the bottom of the barrel is? No, we don't go to the bottom of the barrel.

You're so bad for that one. We only go to the middle of the barrel on this show. There's no bottom of the barrel on Fantasy Football today. So none of us are the top of the barrel. I didn't say that. I just said that we only go... None of us are the top of the barrel.

We are all in the middle of the barrel. This is a pretty small barrel. We better call Basco Incorporated and find some bigger barrels. Today we're talking about bus-proof players. Dan and Dave each have three players. They're going to make the case that they are bus-proof, and the other person is going to have to make the case against that, make the bus argument for those players.

And some of these guys are very high-end. Actually, most of them are very high-end, and that should be the case, right? If you're talking about bust proof players here, talking mostly first and second round picks. But Travis Kelsey, is he bust proof at eight? He'll be age 34 at one point. Saquon Barkley, is he bust proof? Jalen Hurts, is he bust proof?

These are some of the players that we're going to talk about. In fact, let's start with one right now. Dave, why don't you start? Give me one of the three bust proof players that you would like to talk about. Let's start with Jalen Hurts because I think that he's – I think that people have come around on him being a top three quarterback. There are some who believe that he is the number one quarterback in fantasy, and I can't say that that's a wrong opinion at all.

We know what he's capable of doing with his arm. We know what he's capable of doing with his feet. We know that he's got an amazing receiving core, great offensive line. Here are some things that might be a little bit different for him in 2023. Number one, as of now, I think the Eagles defense is still going to be very, very good. One of the top three DSTs in the league. In fact, they are my number one DST, but they're going to be younger than they were last year. And I can't help but think that maybe they bend just a little bit more than 2022 Philadelphia defense did. If that's the case, we're looking at more competitive games for Jalen Hertz, which means he's not going to be handing off in the fourth quarter. He's not going to be taking a passive approach. He will be in the thick of it, and he will be putting up some fantasy points that way. The other thing that's different in

2023 is that Miles Sanders is gone. And Sanders, for whatever it's worth, did score double-digit touchdowns last year. If he's gone, are we counting on DeAndre Swift or Rashad Penny or Kenneth Gainwell, and maybe even as a trio's tag team, to replace those touchdowns? I'm not sure that they will. So we might see even more touchdowns from Jalen Hurts in 2023 on the ground, and we already know that he's doing a lot through there. In fact, he averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game on his passing alone last year.

So even if he doesn't run for more touchdowns and he doesn't run as much as before, okay, he's not hitting that 30 point ceiling that we'd love to see him get. And some weeks that 30 point ceiling is more like a 40 point ceiling. Okay, fine. He still should be in the range of 24, 25 fantasy points per week. You're expecting more than that, but I don't think that means that he's a bust if that's what he's averaging this year. Bottom line is this short of him getting hurt. I don't see him regressing as a passer. I think he does more from week to week and he, and I think he takes on even more of a role in the run game, given the changes to the running backs in Philadelphia, bus proof quarterback, the most bus proof quarterback. That might be why he's QB1 in fantasy football this year.

Okay, Dan, you have to make the argument that he is actually not bus-proof, that Jalen Hurts is not bus-proof. Also, I think more interesting is what Dave said at the very end there, that he's the most bus-proof. So I think when you compare to Allen and Mahomes, I'm interested to see why Dave went that route. But what do you have to say, Dan? Listen, this is probably the hardest anti-case to make on the show. I think of all the six players

that Dave and I picked for today personally. So it's going to be tough to do the devil's advocate here. I'm going to try to do the devil's advocate because I really don't feel at this point with what I saw from my film valuation of Hertz. I don't feel like there's much room for regression. He improved so much as an anticipatory thrower last year that, and using outside the numbers throws where what I mean by that is the two numbers on the football field, throwing the ball outside of those, not inside the harder throws to make. And it's really tough for me to make this case. The only case I might make is hit this one. One Jalen Hertz lost his play caller from last year and his offensive coordinator, or sorry, not his play call, but his offensive coordinator from last year. Maybe that is something that can play a role in

a little bit of regression there. Maybe, maybe not. I'll also make the case that he does have AJ Brown on his roster as his wide receiver one, someone who's dealt with bad knee injuries in the past that have debilitated him. Dallas Goddard's missed time with injuries. There's some injury profile in that receiver course. Of course, now they have some, the backup options and they also have Devante Smith. So it's not like he would lose all of his weapons, even if one or two went down. So in finding the case against Jalen hurts, it's really difficult with his rushing floor. I'm kind of struggling in the moment here. I debated this before the show, like what case could I make? The only case I really have is him regressing as a passer by losing his offensive coordinator. And there is

still some time to watch him and you're like, okay, is this really one of the elite passers in the game? But there are other times you watch him and you're like, yeah, this guy's making anticipatory throws, which probably only a handful or fewer of quarterbacks are even making in the NFL on a consistent basis. So I don't know, this is not a good case, Adam, I apologize, but I can't do it because I love Jalen hurts. And And I think, Dave, the real case is, can you take Jalen Hurts over Mahomes as the QB1? Like, is there a case to be made as him as QB1? I think is the opposite side of this.

So yeah, just proves that he's bus proof. Why is he the most bus proof quarterback, Dave, ahead of less bus or less bus potential, more bus proof than Mahomes and Allen? I like, I think I like, I don't think, I know I like his receiving core better than what Mahomes and Josh Allen are dealing with. Listen, I can't split hairs too much here

between Mahomes and Allen. And maybe the lesson is to just simply just target whoever's third. And you don't have to be the first guy to take a quarterback in your draft or in your auction. But that third guy, whoever it is, this is the elite tier of quarterbacks. Go after the third guy, the third man. Don't think you can do that, Dave.

Why not? Because they all go in the same round. Well, it's obviously easier in an auction than it is in a regular draft. But where would you have to be picking where you can feel comfortable getting the third guy? Probably with a top five pick. If you're picking fifth overall, you will probably have a pick of at least one of them by the time you're up in one, two.

And that's in a home league. In an analyst league, you might have a shot at all three of them being there. And listen, Jalen Hurts, number three in fantasy points per game last year. I think he can take a statistical jump based on how he throws the ball and the uptick in running and the more production. He was only 1.243 fantasy points per game less than Patrick Mahomes at number one. So he could catch Mahomes. We know that Mahomes doesn't have Juju.

They replaced him with a rookie. What if the wide receivers in Kansas City, not the tight end, the wide receivers just don't hold up their end of the bargain? Sky Moore doesn't progress. Kadarius Toney underwhelms, et cetera, et cetera. I think that that's something that could hurt Mahomes and keep him from throwing for 5,000 yards. And Jalen Hurts ends up catching him because of what he does on the ground and through the air. so remember he came back because they needed to win that game they lost their previous two games they needed to win that game to lock up the one seed that was only the second game all year in which hurt scored fewer than 20 fantasy points and six point for passing touchdown league so

it's a total outlier um he was super close to patrick mahomes and he was actually better than josh allen before his shoulder injury uh bus case i would make against Hurts is did lose his offensive coordinator, as Dan said. Has a 35-year-old center in Jason Kelsey. Has a 33-year-old right tackle in Lane Johnson. Lost one of the starting guards in Isaac Sayamalu to the Steelers. So it's kind of a

team that was so damn good last year. They are a little bit old up front on both sides of the ball. Maybe that could go wrong, but hard to argue. I didn't mention that is worth noting is the schedule is complete. It's like flipped for the NFC East teams, Eagles included last year. The Eagles and the NFC East had the AFC South, which is easiest division probably for fantasy. Now that's going to be the AFC East.

You got the Bills defense, the Jets defense, Patriots defense, nothing to scoff at. Dolphins defense with Vic Fangio coming in to right the ship there. And the West in the NFC, so you're dealing with better defenses there as well. So I do feel like it's a little bit of a different situation there, at least from a schedule standpoint. You're right. Actually, Jalen Hurts scored 30-plus fantasy points against the Giants, against Washington, so he'll face them again, one each.

But he also did that against Minnesota, Chicago, Tennessee. Three of the easiest matchups last year. Plus Green Bay and Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh, when they didn't have TJ Watt, they were awful. I think that's when he played them. Are you interested in knowing what the PSOS score is for Philadelphia this year?

Yes. It's 26. It's 26. It's low. Remember, the higher the number, the worse it is. Strength of schedule? Projected strength of schedule. So this is a different metric than the strength grading of every defense based on their personnel, their scheme, and their coaching, and their quality depth, all put into one easy ranking,

basically. And while we're at it, Dave, tell the listeners where they can find this. The initial place where you'll find the projected strength of schedule story is going to be in our magazine, our Fantasy Football Preview magazine. Yes, that's right. After I just made fun of print publication, I'm not going to promote our print publication, the fantasy football today preview magazine. There's only one. It's going to be on newsstands everywhere. It's going to be dropped off at your house. If you, I think if we're, if we're selling on Amazon again, I don't know these things. I'm, I'm half making it up, but we will have, we will have updated versions and a link to the updated versions that you can just simply type in your browser

once you find it in the magazine. And so if things change, if one of the division rivals, basically, for the Eagles loses a player to an injury before the season starts, that'll affect that ranking, and it'll make it easier on Jalen Hurts. All right, let's move on, please. I'm just going to give one teaser real quick, Adam. I can't get to a new player yet. We're 12 minutes in.

We'll talk about Jalen Hurts. Go to the new player. No teasers. All right, listen. Let's get to Dan's guys. Trying to sell things here, Adam. We sold it. All right, who do you want?

Hey, I got one more thing. No. Who do you want to talk about, Dan? Give me a best proof player. Hold on, hold on. The Eagles projected strength of schedule last year. This is last year's magazine. Was two seconds. So they had the second easiest projected schedule and it showed in the numbers. All right, Dan, bus proof player number one thing from a schematic standpoint, he's gone through that period. We saw briefly with my homes and then briefly, I thought with burrow where defenses are playing

too high shelves against him, basically just saying, we're trying to take everything away from you. Big play wise, see what you can do to beat us. And he beat that. And he's now mastered that style of defense. And once that happens and the coordinators can no longer just run too high safeties, take away the big plays. There's not really many avenues to beat these quarterbacks. We've seen it with Mahomes and now we've seen it with Joe Burrow. The connection with Burrow and Jamar Chase is just too good at this point. They threw a thousand balls together before their final season LSU and thousands of more since they know exactly where they're going to be and they can beat any defense right

now. And you add to that, the mastery, add to the mastery, just from a, you know, a processing standpoint with burrow to what the bangles have done to build around him. And there's just things I like. So first of all, coming in, coming into this season, they add Orlando Brown jr, who I think will shore up their left tackle position. And that's been a big problem for them. Jonah Williams was not the player they hoped he would be when they drafted him the first round of Alabama for now he's penciled in at right tackle, but eventually Lyle Collins will come back and play that position. They'll have two bookend tackles.

They also have some depth now on the interior offensive line, although they also have really good starters there as well. So I really like what's going on in the offensive line, what they added there. At receiver, I also like what they've added as well. Two players in this draft I love. Charlie Jones, I talked about him out of Purdue a lot. He's a perfect fit for that Bengals system. He's going to be at some point what Tyler Boyd gave them. And he for now provides insurance for them. If Boyd goes down as well as Andre, I was never

not to pronounce this guy's name, the Princeton kid who, when you watch him, Andre, I, I, I, I think is how you pronounce the name. And when you watch him, you get little shades. It's not him, but you get little shades of Christian Watson, just a little bit, that same type of profile, long athlete with breakaway speed. Now he's breaking away against defenses that Princeton is facing. So it's like, you got to keep that in context, but an interesting athlete to add to the mix there. In addition, obviously bringing back Boyd Higgins and Jamar trace, you look at the numbers. Thanks to Adam on this one, but in the games where both chase and Higgins played borough was as good on a points per game basis, nearly as good as my homes

and Josh Allen last season, you can hopefully assume that you're going to get a little bit better luck on the injury front with Higgins. It's possible. I don't know. Chase also obviously missed some time last year. If both play this year, that's a different scenario there. And I even liked the addition of Irv Smith as well to the mix here. I think Irv Smith, obviously very talented player didn't work out in Minnesota, a lot of injuries there, but we've seen at times so many easy layup options for the tight end in this offense when no one else is accounting for the tight end because of all the other weapons. So I just look around and I love the offensive line in the depth there. I love the receivers in the depth there. And I just love what Burrow showed last season as far as beating defenses

that are just going to play too high shells. I don't know how you beat Burrow at this point. So I don't see any real room for him to regress. Dave, who'd you like to make the bus case again? The bus case for Joe Burrow here. Well, first of all, it's Yoshivas. I know it looks like Iosivas, but it's Yoshivas. You know what? I knew that, and Iosivas, but it's Yoshivas. And you know what?

I knew that, and I screwed it up anyway. It's okay. It's what I'm here for. Now everybody will know how to say the name of a guy who's not going to make any plays for the Cincinnati Bengals this year. Right. That wasn't the best part of your argument. That's it. I'm done.

No Yoshivas. Burrow's going to stink. Okay. us burrow's gonna stink okay first of all i know that we're we're implying that obviously a player getting hurt is is not going to be something that we can argue for why a player is not bus proof right so i'm not going to say that burrow could tear his acl again but i do want to mention that there were one two three four games here we go adam we're going to talk about the same thing we talked about earlier this week there were four games last year where jamar chase did not play in those four games burrow was over 21 point he he didn't he had more than 22 fantasy points six point per passing

touchdown leagues one time in those four games there were three other games adam where t higgins either barely played that's what it is he played one snap in the other game in those three games, 22.2, 19.3 and 20.6. This just means that Burrow is mortal. It means that he cannot put the team on his back. Mahomes style, Jalen Hurts style, maybe some of the other quarterbacks who can run and just put a bunch of fantasy points on the board. Anyway, he needs his star receivers and he needs both of them.

If he loses one of them, he can still be good. But if he's going to average around 21 fantasy points per game, I don't know if I want that as my, I don't know if I'll feel good about that if I'm drafting him as my QB4. Now, we don't know that that's going to happen. That's kind of in the same vein as saying, well, this guy could get hurt, and then he's a bust. But short of that, I don't know if there's a case to make against Burrow. He's a phenomenal thrower.

Defenses are going to have a real hard time with him if they keep doing what they've been doing defensively. And they've adapted, too. First, he was struggling against cover two they found a way to beat that then teams went to cover one cover three he beats that too i don't know what defenses are going to do when this offense is healthy and with better protection i think burrows is a very safe fantasy quarterback who's worthy of being the fourth qb off the board well he's actually what I'm looking at right now.

Fantasy pros PPR average draft position. I don't know if these are four point or six point 80 piece, probably a mixture of both. Joe Burrow is actually QB six behind the big three and Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, which makes me think that it's more four point per passing touchdown leagues. But I think you could take them. You could take them as QB four,

even in a four point passing touchdown lead, because I think he's much more bus-proof on the topic of this show than Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields. He may not have the same upside, but it's not that far. I mean, he's going to throw for a lot more yards and a lot more touchdowns. Dave's right. You've got to have the two receivers healthy. But in terms of bus-proof, I mean, you can't even compare Burrow to Jackson and Fields. He's

much, much safer than those guys. At least in my opinion. If you guys disagree, chime in. If not, we will take a break. First, I want to tell you about the CBS Sports app. Man, we got a lot of great sporting events coming up. NBA Finals tonight. Anybody think the Heat are going

to win the NBA Finals? I sure hope not. Just because I have a lot riding on the nuggets. Oh, okay. Yes, I saw a funny meme that said, Heat Nuggets, NBA finals, and dinner instructions. But anyway, we got the Stanley Cup finals. That's an easier joke.

Starting on Saturday. So got baseball going on. Keep up with all of it on the CBS Sports app. The app is terrific. Lightning fast live scoring for all major sports. Got a bunch of soccer on there as well. And it's the way I get my breaking news alerts. I can watch live sports on the CBS Sports app.

Stay on top of all the latest updates. It's totally free on iPhone, on Android. And it is the easiest way to keep your finger on the pulse of every game that matters. Download the CBS Sports app. Stick around. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Not a ton of news and notes here, but let's go through them.

Tom Brady says he's definitely not playing again, so he's certain that he's not playing again. Hmm, okay. I'll take his word for it for now. He's definitely not doing this, he's certain that he's not playing again. Hmm. Okay. Yeah. I'll take his word for now. Definitely not doing this. And then he ends up doing it. I don't know. We'll see what happens.

I feel like the dolphins have to get something out of this, right? Like they negotiate behind doors. They lose their first round pick and nothing like, I don't know. I'm, I'm, I'm not turning.

I'm not closing the book yet. I'm Brady going to the dolphins. A green Bay rookie tight end. Luke Musgrave is getting first-team reps in OTAs. My guy. So is Jaden Reed. Mike Kay of the Charlotte Observer thinks that Terrace Marshall is on the cusp of a breakout campaign. It was sort of a throw-in line in the story,

but I will say this, that among all wide receivers who ran 150 or more routes last year, Terrace Marshall had by far the best explosive play rate among all those wide receivers. It was like 34%. And those are plays that went for 16 or more yards. Now, if you look at the leaderboard there,

it's almost all guys who didn't have a lot of targets, including Terrace Marshall. It's Rashid Shahid, Marquise Goodwin, guys like that. But Terrace Marshall, he played three games last year in which he had more than six or more targets. He came through with double-digit PPR fantasy points in all three games. But I'm guessing, Dave,

he's not the first Panthers wide receiver you're drafting, right? Not yet. He could get to that point, though. These headlines are going to be things that make me want to keep an eye on what's going on with Carolina. I like Bryce Young as a thrower, so I'm not so worried about him melting down as a rookie. He needs some good targets. If he's the best player that they have, they'll use him. I was fond of his game coming out of LSU.

Do you know what his fantasy pros ADP is, Adam Azer? Oh, it's probably in the 200s. 237.5. You're getting him for free on draft day. Might be a good reason to pop open a best ball draft in the next week or so. All right. Terrace Marshall. Next news item. Ron Rivera said Antonio Gibson has shown his pass-catching

abilities in OTAs. Oh, as opposed to never before? Rivera, you knucklehead. Well, look, that's been a part of their offense. It's usually been McKissick, but could that just be Gibson? Could it be Brian Robinson is on running downs and Gibson is a,

that's what it was last year. And when that was the case, it was, it was a split though. It was, it was more, I mean, I think Gibson had more running work, you know? Okay. Could he just be McKissick? Could he just really be McKissick? He could be McKissick plus because McKissick almost never worked on rushing downs unless other players were hurt, but he averaged 10 PPR points per game in the games with Brian Robinson on the field. And so now there's a chance maybe he does a little bit more than that. This could be one of the side effects of Eric Biennemi taking over the offense.

This is something Brian Robinson shouldn't be expected to do more of his catch passes. This is an Antonio Gibson deal. And as long as he holds onto the football, there's no reason to think he can't be a guy that gets double digit PPR points per week. I think the, the, you know,

devil's advocate case to that is Sam Howell is probably not the best quarterback to be maximizing passing game for a running back. I think he's going to run a good amount in spots. He ran a lot at UNC his final season. So I'm just a little concerned with that. I also don't personally think going from Scott Turner to BNME is good for passing game running backs

because so much of Scott Turner's offense funneled through the running backs in the passing game. And I don't know if I see that for sure with BNME coming over. There was some involvement, obviously, with McKinnon, but some of that was just not design stuff.

So we'll see what happens there. But I don't love the combination of Howell there with BNME for the passing game running backs. OK, I'm't love the combination of how there would be enemy for the passing game running backs. Okay. I'm going to give you three formats. Tell me who's the first commanders running back.

You're drafting in non PPR Robinson. Yep. Robinson for sure. Half PPR still Robinson, still Robinson, 10 point PPR, one point PPR. Full one point PPR. I think I'm still Robinson across the board.

I just don't have that much faith in Gibson at this point. Yeah. Okay. But the keywords there are not at this point. Yeah. Certainly there's going to be a chance where they just fall in love all over again with Antonio Gibson. And then you could potentially make the case to move them ahead of Brian Robinson.

And I have a pop culture hot take really for Dan. Oh, God. I can't. The Last of Us is super boring, and I have just no interest in finishing it. How many episodes have you seen? I'm on episode five. That's decently deep, and you still don't like it. Wow.

It's not doing it for me. I have a pet peeve in TV and movies. I don't like main characters who have one emotion the entire show. And it's starting to get on me. And I love that actor. I love him. He's a terrific actor. But I'm not loving the character.

It's just a little bit too dry. He's not realistic to me, even though I know, obviously, his backstory. But the show, I cannot get myself to watch it. I watched one episode of Mayor of Kingstown. That show gripped me like 10 times more than The Last of Us. If I'm going to watch a show, it's going to be that. So that's my pop culture hot take.

The Last of Us, don't think I'm going to finish it. Don't really want to. One day I'll find a show that I'll suggest to you and you'll love. And I'm waiting for that day. I did love something I saw on Twitter, though. I said, well, we'll dig briefly. We're going too much on this. But the other maybe yesterday or the day before I saw Adam comment to want to see his post,

you know, see us running the the bracket for all the best TV shows. And I was like, you know what? I did try Frazier. And I got to be honest, it's not that good and should have been seated lower. I didn't say it's not that good. I said it shouldn't have been a one seat. I added the not that good part, but he did say it should have been seated lower. It's fine. It's fine. I'm only on season two. I'm hoping by like season five it gets great. But all right, let's talk more about our bus proof players here. You heard about Jalen Hurts from Dave, Joe Burrow from Dan. So let's

get some non quarterbacks here. And how about a couple of running backs who are going in the first round? Dave, you say Austin Eckler is bus proof. Also, don't sit there and say, oh, well, first round running back. Of course, they're bus proof. That's definitely not the case. Plenty of first round running backs been bus year after year, including the number one overall player last year, Jonathan Taylor. But Austin Eckler, at 28 years old, you're going to say he is bus proof. I am. And the caveat is that I would have told you last year, and I might have told you last year, that Jonathan Taylor is completely bus proof.

And he ended up being a bus last year. Injury played a huge role. He suffered a high ankle sprain early in the season. And we've said this before. The high ankle sprain is a death knell on a fantasy player's production. And it's hard to bounce back from that, at least within the next couple of weeks. Let's move to Eckler. I think he's the least or the most bus proof among running backs. I think that he's the most likely to continue churning out huge production. What is that huge production? Over 20 PPR fantasy points per game. Each of the last two years,

name me a running back that has averaged over 20 PPR points per game over the last two years. Don't even try. You can't do it. There isn't one. The closest one is actually Derek Henry, who was at 19.1 last year in your face for everybody. That's like,

you need a ton of targets to do it. Derek Henry says no way, but Eckler did it. And it's because he need a ton of targets to do it. Derrick Henry says, no way. But Eckler did it, and it's because he had a ton of targets. Absolutely nothing has been added to the Chargers running back room this offseason. We were worried about that. And that means they're going to try and put Joshua Kelly

in the secondary role. Maybe Isaiah Spiller gets another chance. But I'd be surprised if either of those guys takes away more work than any running back has over the last three seasons from Austin Eckler. And I just love that Kellen Moore is the play caller now. They've got a guy who's going to be aggressive and probably throw. I was going to make the case that he's going to throw even more. That's probably not going to happen. He's going to throw a little bit less

or a call pass plays a little bit less. And even with Quentin Johnson being there, I don't think Johnson takes away from Eckler. And he's still going to have all the major high-value roles that we want in a fantasy running back. And the chair on top, yeah, he's 28. This guy gets out of bounds a lot. This guy goes down on the first tackle sometimes when he knows he can't get any extra yards.

He's smart with his body, hasn't gotten hurt in each of the last few years. In fact, three of the last four years, he hasn't missed a game. The guy's bionic. Can't put them on the same level as Derek Henry in that regard, but he's close to it and he's catching more passes. He is the most bus proof running back that you can get in fantasy this

year. Go ahead, Dan. You guys just jump right in after that. Strong case, strong case. But I think if I'm going to focus on a devil's advocate, and I also am a fan of Eckler this season from a value standpoint,

if I'm going to focus on the devil's advocate side of this and the things that could kind of slow him down, the first one I'm going to touch on is just not, it's just the pure idea of touchdown regression here, right? Because Eckler obviously had a lot of touchdowns last season, a little more than his typical norm there, and honestly high compared to the rest of the NFL at that position. Now this season, they add Quinton Johnson to the mix, a first round wide receiver. And is it possible that with a change in offensive coordinator with Kellen Moore, we could see a different style of

offense in the red zone or not even a different style, but just a different funneling of the targets and the touches in the red zone. And that could potentially style, but just a different funneling of the targets and the touches in the red zone. And that could potentially take away from some Vecular's touchdowns, which led to a lot of points, especially now the Ed Quinton Johnson to the mix who can potentially be a red zone threat. I'm still, you know, remain to be seen on that. I don't, he's a big player, but he doesn't really play like a big receiver, but I still think, you know, on the crossers and on the mesh type concepts, he's going to be a big body. You can get open underneath. So we'll see what happens there. I would also say that the addition of Quinton Johnston and Kellen Moore to the mix could

change the overall target volume. That's the second thing would, that would be my concern there for Austin Eckler. I think Adam did a good job breaking this down in the notes, but the average of career low in yards per catch last season, Austin Eckler and an an ADOT. Those are two receiving stats that have been related, according to Adam, and I think that's something interesting to note, especially when you look at... For him. I'm sorry? Related for him. He's had super low ADOTs, like negative ADOTs, basically. He's had low yards per catch. When they are throwing it to him across the line of scrimmage, then it's fine.

But yeah, I have more to say about this, but go ahead. I do apologize for trying to mansplain an Azar stat. You should never, no one should ever do that. But anyway, that's that included, as well as Kellen Moore just in general is not really an offensive coordinator that's called a very pass heavy to the running backs type game scripts.

He's been 24th and 23rd in RB targets twice as an offensive coordinator with Dallas and with the added weapon in Quinton Johnson, I think there's a chance this offense goes a little bit differently in 2023 takes that next step. If we're all expecting Justin Herbert to take the step that we are expecting in this passing game to be more intermediate based and more downfield based and vertical oriented,

then if that all happens, I think there's going to be fewer targets for Austin Eckler. I think that's where the touchdown regression, it is what it is, but the passing game involvement, he had 127 targets last year. That just doesn't seem to me like that's going to repeat this season. No,

and you left out a couple of something about Kellen Moore though, is that yes, he was four seasons as Cowboys coordinator. And in two of those seasons, the Cowboys were 23rd and 24th in RB targets. The other two seasons, they were 13th and they were ninth. I thought that's how you do the Acer stat. You pick and choose and you cherry pick and you find the ones that fit you. Absolutely not.

That's not those are Schneier stats. But in terms of the targets, 127 targets in 17 games last year, 2021, when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were actually healthy, he was on pace for a hundred targets in 17 games. And in the five games in 2022, that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were healthy. Eckler was on pace for 78 targets. So I do think he definitely benefited from those injuries. So if I were going to make a case against Eckler, it would be that he will see fewer targets. I do believe he will see fewer targets. 127 is crazy. As long as two of the three wide receivers, if we include Quentin Johnston, stay healthy, he'll see fewer targets.

And the touchdowns, I mean, it's actually been two years in a row. He scored 20 total touchdowns in 2021. He scored 18 in 2022. Honestly, Dave, that's the only thing. If somehow he loses his goal line role, then I guess he, you know, but I just, I do not see that happening at all. So he'll have fewer catch. He's just so involved though. I mean, he'll be fine. He's, he's pretty bus proof and full PPR in non and half PPR.

I think it's different though, Dave. I don't know. I agree. And, and non and half PPR. Is he even a top five pick in non PPR? I would say no. Like, I think that's where you could pivot to Derek Henry because it's hard to imagine him having the type of touchdown production a third year in a row, uh, north of 15. I think if you expect him to have around 14 touchdowns, let's just call it that total. I he can get you there but he could exceed

it but what's really slowing him down from doing it i don't really know if there is one other than the receiving core maybe staying healthy quinn johnson playing a bigger role the only reason why i don't have eckler this is funny as the number one guy is because i was reminded last year i went on a i went on a video show last year and told them that i was i liked taylor as my number one guy and they said you can't do that he was the number one running back last year and told them that I was, I liked Taylor as my number one guy. And they said, you can't do that. He was the number one running back last year. Guys never, ever repeat. And Eckler was the number one fantasy running back on a PPR per game basis last year. So just on that stat alone, I put McCaffrey ahead of him. But if you don't believe in that Saturday, if you think

that Eckler is good enough to do it, then Eckler should be your number one running back in your rankings. When was the last time it happened? Was it with Danny and Tomlinson? No, yeah, we did this early. It was Todd Gurley. It was Gurley.

Okay. Yep. The back-to-back earlier as I knew, remember then the mid 2014 and a forgotten superstar, uh, for fantasy football, Todd Gurley. Okay.

Uh, we got three more names here and we'll, let's speed it up a little bit. Okay. Saquon Barkley, another first round running back. Dan, you are making a bus proof bit. Saquon Barkley, another first-round running back. Dan, you are making a bust-proof case for Saquon Barkley. Yeah, quick case here.

There's not as much of a ceiling, I don't think, with Eckler, but I think there's as much of a floor, and that's what we're doing here. We're doing bust-proof players here. And it just comes down for Barkley to the involvement in the offense. They asked Terry Slayton at OTAs yesterday. They said to him, are you worried about getting stats and targets now that the Giants have added all his weapons. He's like, no, because I don't really care about this stuff. And this offense still runs through Saquon Barkley. And that's the truth of it. This offense does run through Saquon Barkley, his involvement,

not only from a total snap standpoint, which is kind of not unmatched, but really only matched by a handful or fewer of running backs. The NFL right now is one thing, but it's also the passing game involvement, which once again is only really matched by a handful of few or fewer of running backs led the giants and targets last year. I expect them to lead the giants and targets again this year. That might seem odd considering they added Darren Waller and Jalen Hyatt. But if you look at how this offense operates, they've tried to simplify things for Daniel Jones and make things really,

really easy because that's a smart way to add efficiency to any quarterback in the NFL. So if he doesn't like his first read in the past game, he has two options. He either takes the B gap and runs if it's there, or he hits the flare out to Saquon Barkley, which is always there. And then worst case scenario, you get Saquon Barkley one on one in space. I don't see why he's going to go away from that this year. It was a, you know, a source of very easy yards last year, a source of big plays at times and Saquon Barkley made someone miss. So I still think he's going to be a big part of the progression in the passing game with those flare outs. And that doesn't even go into the potential for him to kind of work more in the passing game. We saw some flashes in the screen game last year. We also saw some flashes when they lined them up outside in the slot. And I

think that's something they're going to try to build on as well with the second year in the system for Barkley. Obviously all this is contingent on him signing with the giants and playing under the franchise tag. I think he'll get a multi-year deal or play under the tag. I don't think he's sitting out the season. I just don't really foresee any of that happening. So the involvement here is matched by very few running backs at this point. Like if you look at Eckler's obviously in the mix, but so few running backs are getting that percentage of snaps and that kind of involvement in the passing game. Obviously you look at some of the negatives here. He's explosives went down a little bit.

Adam brought it up. He had five carries of 29 yards in his first five games, then went through that lull and then really didn't have another long carry until, until the playoff game. But I don't know if he's that same kind of explosive player that has RB one or RB two potential anymore, but we're talking about bus proof players. And when you have that kind of volume and involvement in the passing game and in the red zone where, you know, there is some thoughts like, Oh, maybe they brought in wall or Hyatt. They can throw more in the red zone. I don't know if that's the case. They did so much, so much of their success in the

red zone was via Saquon Barkley running the football. And I think that's a big part of his game. He's a really tough runner in the red zone. He's a powerful back. He gets behind his pads in the red zone. He's 230 pounds and he can kind of force his way through or leap over the defender. So I still think he's going to have double digit touchdowns with a big involvement in the passing game and a lot of snaps overall. That to me is a bust proof type player. So Dan already mentioned the first thing, the explosives went down for him in his comeback season from 2021, where he really didn't look great. So obviously better than his 2021 season, but not as good as when he was a rookie or even a second year player. He had 352 touches last year. What happened the last time

he had over 300 touches? He came back in his second season and he was still really good for fantasy on 269 touches in 13 games, over 1,400 total yards, eight touchdowns, one fumble, still a must-start type of fantasy running back. I am a little bit worried about what happens this year if he gets another heavy, heavy workload, which I think is probably going to happen because it makes sense to utilize him that way. He's their lead running back. The offensive line's good.

Defenses will eventually have to respect the pass against the Giants with all that they've added in the receiving core this offseason. Remember that point. But, yeah, Saquon Barkley is going to get a lot of work. Could he break down again, potentially? Or not even break down, but just not be as efficient because he wasn't as efficient in his second year as he was in his first year,

and that was because he was coming off a year with over 350 touches. That's exactly the case that he's going to be in this year. So I think he takes a little bit step back statistically this year, but not enough to make you worried. What worries me just as much, if not more, is all the capital that the Giants spent to improve their receiving core. They've got, who was their big get? Was Waller?

Waller was their big get. And yes, he is going to make an impact in the red zone, just like he did in Las Vegas. Here's some other names, Jalen Hyatt, Paris Campbell, Jamison Crowder individually. They don't mean much for fantasy collectively. Those are three new guys joining a receiving core that dealt with a lot of injured players who are coming back like Sterling Shepard and Wondell Robinson will eventually make his way back. Now they've got a deep group. There has to be a reason why the Giants went so crazy to add pass catchers. It could be as simple as, all right, we didn't really like all the guys that we had last year. We only had one good perimeter receiver in Hodgins. We didn't really get that slot receiver that we wanted. Darius Slayton is just okay. We just need more competition there and more explosiveness there.

That's fine, but they're going to utilize that. And so maybe my concern about getting a ton of touches for Saquon is being overstated because they might throw the ball a little bit more with all these fun receivers that they've added to their group. That does mean fewer touches theoretically, and it might not be much. It could be two per game for Saquon Barkley. I think he's going to be good for about what he was in his second season. Maybe,

maybe nine touchdowns, 10 touchdowns. He could get there. I don't want to short him there, but I do think that the chance of him being like you said, Dan RB one or RB two. Yeah. I don't know if I see it. It's one of the reasons why I kind of like Bijan Robinson better. A couple of things about that 2019 season, 2018 Barkley was the best running back in fantasy as a rookie. 2019, he hurt his ankle, and he missed some time. High ankle sprain. Yeah, high ankle sprain. There it is.

Right, and when he came back, he hurt his ankle again, and it was a different injury. So I don't know how much stock I put into that season because he was playing hurt for almost all of it. Tours ACL the next year. 2021 was just an awful season coming back from the torn ACL. Jason Garrett as the offensive coordinator,

they were 31st in scoring. Last year was a lot better. But if I'm making a bust case for Barkley, it's simple. He has not been an elite running back since his rookie season. He was, I would say, for the first five or six games of the last season. And then it just started,

then he just started to be kind of a volume guy. But when you watched him play, you still saw the explosiveness. I mean, in that playoff game, some of the plays he made against the Vikings were just incredible. So I still think he's an elite running back, even if the numbers don't bear it out. But, yeah, okay. They became a passing team second half of the year.

He was getting about 15 carries per game. He was saved by his touchdowns and by his receptions totals. If they go back to being a passing game and Dan's talked about this, they were going three receiver sets a lot more. They were also losing a lot more. All right. They, they were, they struggled in the second half of the year after their schedule got harder and it's going to get harder this year, right? If they go back to being a passing team and Darren Waller really cuts, and he's really the only one I'm very worried about, maybe Wandale Robinson, the other guys, like whatever.

But if they really cut into his target share, there's your bus case for Barkley. Fewer carries and fewer targets, and he's like a 4.4 yards per carry guy instead of a 5 yards per carry guy like he was as a rookie. That's the bus case for Saquon Barkley. I do think he's the best player on their team offensively and I agree with it basically Dan I just I think there's a case

and I think we all agree with Dan that's why his first round pick but I think there's a case but he's he's the focal point of their team volume is so key in fantasy football especially these days that running back there's just so few guys and when I say volume I don't just mean the carries I mean that passing game involvement there's so few guys with both when I say volume, I don't just mean the carries. I mean that passing game involvement. There's so few guys with both. All right. Let's take a break here. Before we take a break, we had a question for Dan. And it was in the chat.

And it was, Dan, how much do you bench? Chad Powers. Nice question. That's funny. So, you know, look, I don't bench a lot of weight anymore. I used to when i was in college but the problem is i have a really bad shoulder injury right shoulder injury i think it's rotator cuff related no matter how much i stretch it pre-workout it still ends up kind of messing

with me so i'm i'm doing my weight at this point which is 185 and i just kind of rep it out for as much as i can that's why i don't lift either dan a shoulder injury, right? That's why that's what's hurting my bench press totals. While we're talking about Adam, I before the show, I pose this question to Dave. Has Adam ever stepped foot in a weight room one?

And if the answer is yes, has he ever done? Because we know he's probably like got on the bench press and we're like, I'm going to bench. But has he ever done like one of two things, either deadlift or squat?

That's the question is I cannot see in any way shape or form adam ever deadlifting squat i'm not so sure about uh i think in high school maybe like as part of a fitness test or something but i'm gonna say no and i haven't been i haven't lifted weights in 10 years so with that we'll take a break and. And if I'm in my 90s, I'll be able to say I haven't lifted weights in 70 years. So I'm never going to lift weights again, basically. That'll be your secret to longevity. Maybe.

We'll be back. Good for you, Adam. Travis Kelsey, is he really bus proof? We'll talk about it after the break. All right, guys, let's do a five-minute limit on these players. Travis Kelsey, Dan, he is, for many people, a top-five pick. You have him as bust-proof. Obviously, I think it's easy to say this, right?

The only thing that's going to hold him back is age. But I am interested why you think he's bust-proof. Yeah, I mean, I've been making the case for Travis Kelsey on this show for two straight years. Last year, I said he should have been an early-round first pick. First half of the round, a first half of first round pick. He was back end. I got him every draft two years ago.

I was getting him in round two. The advantage Travis Kelsey gives you over every other tight end is so unbelievable that last season, and these are the numbers on it. He doubled the eighth best tight end in points per game. There were only seven players who scored double, who scored double digits. He scored 18.6 fantasy points per game. There were only seven players who scored double digits. He scored 18.6 fantasy points per game in PPR.

And again, the eighth best scored 9.53. He's now finished as the tight end one, five of the last seven seasons. In those other two seasons, he finishes the tight end two overall. The offense we've seen go through many different variations there in Kansas City. They've had wide receiver ones. They've had no wide receiver ones. It does not matter. Travis Kelsey is still going to score fantasy points, still going to be a focal point in the red zone, still going to be the guy who just chews up yards in the intermediate range, still has probably the best rapport, in my opinion, of any skill position player in the NFL with his quarterback right now.

I don't know if a case can be made that anyone has a better rapport than Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes have right now. You've obviously seen some of the videos where there just seems like they're on the exact same mental page. I'm a big rapport believer. I've made the case before I make it again. So I got a guy here with the best rapport of the quarterback, the NFL,

a clear cut red zone role beats zone better than any tight end I've ever seen in the history NFL. And what do teams play against the chiefs? Because that's all they can do zone. Can't play man against Patrick Holmes. I don't really see any possible way that he's not once again, one of the biggest advantages in fantasy football, like he's been completely underdrafted in the past two seasons. Finally, we're starting to see him go like third, fourth, fifth, sixth overall, like he should have gone for the past two years in my opinion and once again i don't really see any way this thing falls apart except for of course age-based injury but we've seen travis kelsey actually build out a very if you believe in this stuff strong injury

profile over his nfl career he came into the nfl with a big injury concern and profile it's partially why he was drafted uh not in the in the first round, but, and then also production wasn't great in that Cincinnati offense in college. But since then, he really hasn't had too many injuries that have, that have kind of slowed him down. He's played a lot of games. I don't have these numbers in front of me at the moment, but I don't really know if just because he's one year older, we can say the injury jumps so big because we said that

last year and we said that two years ago. Flimsy case against this. First of all, I just wanted to point out four wide receivers who I think have a very, very good rapport with their quarterbacks. I think Cup with Stafford is up there. Burrow with Jamar Chase. I mean, they played together in college. It goes without saying. I think Josh Allen's got it with Stefan Diggs. And I think Amon Ross St. Brown has it with Jared Goff. Remember that point for about four minutes from now. Kelsey, the last five seasons, he does have a year where he averaged over 20 PPR points per game. It was not last year. Last year was 18.6.

The other three years, 15.8, 15.4, 17.9. That's pretty good. That was his in 2018. So 2019, 2021, under 16 PPR points per game. My question would be if your quarterback that you take in, or I'm sorry, tight end that you take in the first round only gives you 15 and a half, 15 and three quarters PPR points per game. Is that a win or a loss? I mean, I I'd argue that's a win because the tight end position is so thin that you're still getting, you know, what, what would it be like 40% more fantasy points than your average top 12 tight end from that guy that you're taking around one.

It might sting you a little bit. If you take Travis Kelsey and he gives you 15.7 PPR points per game compared to guys that go after him at other positions that are going to be 17, 18 PPR points per game. But you've got that advantage with tight end. The only other thing that I could say, and again, like I said, flimsy case against Travis Kelsey is the opposite of what I said earlier for the case against Patrick Mahomes being the most bus proof quarterback in the game. What if Kadarius Tony ends up being amazing? What if Sky Moore takes that second jump in his second season and is a better wide receiver? Justin Ross manages to stay healthy, becomes a downfield threat for Kansas City.

And there's enough there at wide receiver where it's just this huge, huge group that actually takes work away from Travis Kelsey and put some below 15 PPR points per game. That would be disappointing to see, but you can't make the case for that. You can't expect that. Can't even hope for that. That sounds silly to say, which is why Travis Kelsey goes where he goes in fantasy drafts. Yeah. Yeah. The bus case for me, for Kelsey is just that he's not going to outscore the wide receivers and probably the running backs that are being taken in the top five. So you have to ask yourself that question, how much value is that positional advantage? Like Devante Adams scored, I think 20 ish more points

than, than Travis Kelsey, Justin Jefferson scored probably 40 to 50 more points. Yeah. But like quarterback score more than all those, right. players. Right, but you can get a quarterback that outscores Travis Kelsey in round eight. You know, you can only get those wide receivers maybe with those first several picks. But you can only get that one tight end who scores that much. I understand. I mean, I have Kelsey.

I have Kelsey, you know, certainly as a top five pick. I had him at number one. Right now, probably around three. I don't know where he's going to fall between two and five for me, but you are losing fantasy points when you take him. You're losing raw fantasy points, but I think until you roster Kelsey,

and for those of you who have, and I know you guys both have on some teams, then you finally see on the week-to-week basis what a difference it makes when your opponent's streaming some random tight end who scores 2.3 that week and has one catch,

and you're just firing out 15, 16, 18, 20, and gaining that 17-point advantage on a weekly basis. Okay, let's go to Amonra St. Brown, our last guy we'll talk about today. Bust proof, says Dave. Now, he was the number 11 wide receiver per game in half and full PPR, number 12 in non-PPR. Acer stat, though, if you take out two games in which Amonra St. Brown barely played weeks five and seven,

he was kind of a decoy in week seven, got hurt in week five and he would have been around wide receiver six to eight, depending on the format. And he would have been better than CD lamb on a per game basis. And Dave, you say Amonra St. Brown is bus proof.

Even when Jameson Williams comes back, even with the addition of Sam Laporta, even Marvin Jones coming back in Jameer Gibbs being in Detroit, I think he's on lock as the top target getter in the Lions offense. And as interesting as the run game is going to be with Gibbs and David Montgomery, I don't think the Lions identity is going to stick with being just run first run focused. I think that they actually love Jared Goff and they want to have him throw the football and just the whole narrative on Jared Goff has changed. And I think St. Brown's part of the reason why they've been on the same page really for two

years now. And it's been the second half in the last third of his seasons where he's really been at his best. Adam, you mentioned that he was basically a decoy or a non-factor in Weeks 5 and Week 7 last year. How about his last nine games with Detroit last year? 18.2 PPR points per game. That's on the same level as I'm looking to see. There actually wasn't anybody close to that specific level. He would have been wide receiver 7 on that pace of 18.2 PPR points per game. You are almost certainly drafting St. Brown after the seventh wide receiver in your drafts.

And then in 2021, he was a rookie. No one knew who he was yet. There he was starting with the Lions offense in their first preseason game, and he was ditching guys in coverage. Then I was there. I watched it. It was pretty incredible. I just didn't think that there would be enough there for him,

and it really didn't show up until the last six games of the season when he averaged 24.6 PPR points per game. No chance he's getting there. There are just too many mouths to feed in that offense, but that 18 PPR point range, I think he's there, and even with everybody else playing a role in Detroit, I just think St. Brown's the guy

who's going to remain open the most in that short area field. And that's where golf tends to gravitate toward. He knows he's going to have option routes on lock with St. Brown. They can change plays at the line of scrimmage based on the defense that golf is seeing. Golf is certainly smart enough to see that. And I think St. Brown's just going to continue to be his guy.

You can draft him in round three and have a bus proof wide receiver on your fantasy squad. Yeah, this is a tough case to make against because St. Brown, as Dave knows, we've discussed in the past, I'm very high in St.

Brown. I'm on team rapport. And like Dave mentioned, I think he made a good point. He's top five and quarterback receiver rapport right now with golf to St. Brown. I also love I'm on team layup throws. If you can find an off, if you can find somebody in your offense who can give you those layup throws,

as I call them, which are just the ball snapped within two seconds, a guy's open and you can get the football to him and you can move the chains. You're going to take those a lot as a quarterback because you need those. You can't just take everything downfield. All of that, I think, remains the same for Goff and St. Brown this year. I guess the only bus case I could make to kind of devil's advocate, this would be potential for an evolution in Ben Johnson's offense there. And maybe in some degree in Jared golf's game. Now this is tougher case to make with James and Williams, not playing the first six games. If James and Williams was playing, or once he gets back in the mix, maybe you can think about for the fantasy playoffs, things start to trail off a little bit for St. Brown. If James and

Williams can be the player that I think he can be from a talent standpoint, we see start to see more vertical oriented throws. We start to see more of those deep crossers, which I know Jameson Williams is going to run either to open up other parts of the offense or to get the football. If he's getting open on those throws and they're going to be more high, give,

they're going to give the lions. If they make those attempts, a better chance at explosive plays, which maybe they didn't feel like they get enough of last year. I don't know. The other bus case would be Jameer Gibbs. Look, they wanted to get a running back involved in the passing game with Deandre Swift. It didn't work out because they didn't want Swift on the field and he couldn't stay on the field and he wasn't running the ball the way they wanted him to when they gave him the football. If they believe that Jameer Gibbs can process the run game enough to the point where they can keep you on the field for the past game, do they start to run that offense a little bit more through the running back in the passing

game than they have? So the only way this changes is if the offense evolves to a different degree, but even if that's the case, we still have a quarterback who has a history of targeting these easy slot receivers. He did it with Cooper cup. Now he's found his Cooper cup in a Mon Ross St. Brown. So it's just a hard case to make. I, but you know, that would be the one case that they open up the offensive and kind of change how it runs, you know, where the volume goes. Amon Ross St. Brown also had three catches, I believe, in which he was down inside the two yard line. Oh yeah. So he could have had a better touchdown number, only six touchdowns on 146 targets for St. Brown. Um, but I would, I would say that if there's a bus case, it's that he's the only wide receiver in the last three seasons

to finish top eight with an ADOT lower than 8.5 yards. True. His was 6.5 yards. What was Cooper Cup's the two seasons ago when he was, it must have been high, I guess. Yeah, never mind. No, no, no. Cooper Cup was 8.6 in 2021.

That's one of the lowest ADOTs, and he was wide receiver one. That's one of the lowest ADOTs of the top eight receivers any of the last three years. But St. Brown was two yards lower than that. So he doesn't make plays. He's not a big play guy. He had one of the lowest explosive play rates among wide receivers with 50 or more targets.

He was in the 70s. There were about 84 qualifying wide receivers there. He was in the 70s in explosive play rate. So he's just really relying on catches. He's not great so far on a per-target basis. He's not great per catch. He's not great after the catch. He's fine.

So that's the argument is that, you know, it's like a shorter area version of Keenan Allen. And do you want to take that with a top 20 pick? Top 30 pick? I don't know. I mean, that's the bus case. And I guess if the targets went down because of Gibbs, because of Williams, all that stuff,

then you're not looking at a guy who's making a ton of plays. So there it is. But I think half PPR to me is the third-round pick. I don't know about you guys. Full PPR is the second-round pick. But what about you? Maybe two, three turn and half PPR. Dave?

I'm with you on that. But in full PPR, I am as a top-20 player. I'm with Dave on that. I feel very similar to the confidence I felt in drafting T. Higgins last year, just from the floor standpoint with Amon Ross and Brown this year. That was also a two, three-turn pick if I remember, Higgins. And I think he's got a higher floor than Higgins. He does.

In PPR. In PPR, yeah. Okay, these are some Apple podcast questions to end the show. And the first one said, Adam, can you ask Dan to answer this? Oh, nice. So I don't have to even bother listening. No, you don't. No pressing needs on a contending team.

PPR, rank the following four players. Whichever I get, I will have for the first five years of their NFL careers. You have to do some college scouting here. That's my favorite thing to do. Ameca Abuka from Ohio State. Oh, college scouting from next year's class. Raheem Sanders, Zay Flowers, and Nick Singleton. I'm going to apologize ahead of time.

I don't really look into the next year's class until about February of the next year. There's too much other stuff going on. So don't really think i can give a good good opinion on this because you know my process is very thorough once we get to the actual draft i'm going to watch film on all of these players but if i haven't watched the film yet which i haven't on anyone really but say flowers there i just don't feel comfortable answering this i'm sorry bad answer but at the same time a good answer i will the only thing i'll say is i looked at some even before i saw this question, I looked at some early mock drafts,

and Ohio State in a lot of early mock drafts has two top 10 players, and they're both receivers. And Emeka Abuka is the second one. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best receiver to come out in, I don't even know how long. Jamar Chase? He's a better prospect than Jamar Chase, without a doubt to me.

And Jamar Chase is an amazing prospect. He's like a better version of that. All right. So Abuka, I would say right now is a better prospect than, say, Flowers, but things could certainly change in a year. Yeah, I would think that once I go through my film evaluations, this is a raw take, but I would think Flowers would be lowest on my list of those guys once I go through. But I have to watch those guys on tape to really know.

All right. This is from Tyler Sharba from the city of champions in New York City must be Miami this year PGH he writes Pittsburgh Pittsburgh

that's an abbreviation for PG they win championships there I guess they do actually they did Steelers those are champion teams they did wins stealers not the pirates are champion teams pirates whenever here they did it's not that they do okay here's the question from tyler we all agree garrett wilson's going to have a breakout season would it be ridiculous to take him at the back end of the first round in a redraft league

yeah it feels a little ridiculous i don't like yeah love the talent i really i was even thinking about it on my drive to work today just this is this is what i think about when i'm driving i should be focused on the road i'm thinking about in breaking routes with garrett wilson and being on the same page with aaron rogers and just taking you know 12 yard uh corner routes to the house stuff like that, or post routes, I guess. Um, no, I I'd still rather have Tyreek Hill digs lamb for now. Devante Adams, definitely AJ Brown, and even a Monroe St. Brown and full PPR. I'd rather have than Garrett Wilson. I'm a little more concerned with this definite Garrett Wilson breakout than others. I still

have made the case in the past that I just think it could take some time with Rodgers and Wilson when the actual games come to fruition to get on the same page. Yeah, you got to be patient with them. Grade the trade from Noah. 12th overall pick in a redraft league where we can trade picks.

So this is redraft. I give up my fourth round pick, which is the first pick in the fourth round, for a sixth, seventh, and eighth round pick, which is the first pick in the fourth round, for a sixth, seventh, and eighth round pick. And then what? He just gives his last few picks? I don't even understand how this works. Does he get to keep those extra

late round picks? I assume not. He's going to have to cut some guys. There's roster limits that you've got to follow. That's weird. Yeah. So I guess let's just say he loses like round 16, 15, 14 for the sixth round. Right. Something like that. I would not do that trade. 37th overall pick for a sixth, yeah. So then I guess let's just say he loses like round 16, 15, 14 for this. Right, right. Something like that. All right.

So it's the 37th overall pick for a sixth, seventh, and eighth round pick. There will come a moment during the training camp time of our podcasting where we'll say, all right, this is the spot in a draft where you're just going to hate what's left on the board. I don't think it's going to be at 37th overall. It might be really close to it. I'm thinking it's going to be right around 42nd overall. You're going to get to a point in your draft when you're there and you go, I really don't like anybody that's left. I don't feel good about taking Amari Cooper or Kyle Pitts or the names that you'll look at and say, well, they have potential, but they could also absolutely

stink. I think that fourth round pick, first're at potential, but they could also absolutely stink. I think that fourth round pick, first pick in round four is still a really good pick. All right, this is from the Adam Azer Hair Club. Great trade. It's a small club. This is for the rookie. Did you get a haircut recently, Adam?

I did. I feel like when you get a haircut, it somehow looks like that. That is an extremely insulting comment. That was terrific. Well done on your part. That is the meanest and funniest thing

you've ever said to me. Great, this is Anthony Richardson trade. It's rookie only draft day trade. 12 teams, super flex dynasty. I traded my 2024 first round pick, 2025 first first round pick and Noah Fant. Oh, not Noah Fant. I received the fifth pick of 2023 and took Anthony Richardson.

What are you doing? Whoa. What the heck was that trade? So he traded two first round picks and no offense for Anthony Richardson. Well, I'll say this. You better be having you. You better have been in the finals or semis last year. I'll start by saying that because those first round picks better and your team better look good for the next two years because those first round picks, if there are any, they got to be like second to last or last pick of the round to for you to get back any kind of value on this at all.

Even then, I don't love it too late round pick first round picks for Anthony Richardson. I don't love, but it's the only way this can possibly be a win. If your team starts to fall off at all, you're in trouble because you may be giving up top three picks for a player like Anthony Richardson. And even next year, for example, if your team bottoms out, there are two quarterbacks in the next year's class that I would take immediately over Anthony Richardson. And I'd probably trade a first round pick away as well to get those quarterbacks over Anthony Richardson. We don't like the trade. Don't like the trade. Sorry. Now listen, a year can go by and, uh, you know, Adam Azer hair club guy wins his dynasty league. Then we'll say, and Richardson

might be the reason why he wins the dynasty league. And then we say, okay, great trade. It's going to come down to Richardson. If Richardson's great, you'll be thrilled to make a quarterback too, right, Dave? So it's like, it's kind of a weird trade. You're trading for a developmental guy while giving away your picks that help you develop. All right. Pause on the developmental talk. He does need to improve.

He is a bit of a, he's not even a project. He just needs to like like his technique needs improvement and he's getting there and the reports so far have been good we'll see what he looks like when he's actually in the thick of battle in september but if he gets the hang of the nfl level then this is going to be a great trade if he's anything short of that and this is going to end up being a bad i think but i don't want to use the developmental term. And sorry, Adam, one more thing on this. Let's say he takes the top range of outcomes here as far as these types of quarterbacks who have to work on what he has to work on.

That's Josh Allen. That's the top range of the outcome. Even in that scenario, which I don't think he's going to take, that's a top range outcome. That still means first year is not a good first year. So it's like we're hoping year two. And then at that point you're giving up a draft pit, like for that year and the next year, it's tough.

Right. Hopefully this manager has a competitive team for the next two years. And at some point in those next two years, a rich goes off. Yeah. Yeah. So one comment said man got fleece and I'm not sure if he's talking about that trade or my haircut. And with

that, we are out of here, folks. Thank you very much. I got beyond the box score. You can watch it. It's already been recorded and published on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasy football today, or I will publish the audio on Friday and we will talk to you on Monday with a fresh episode. Might we be doing some emergency podcasts in the next 72 hours about Hopkins? You think Friday and we will talk to you on Monday with a fresh episode of Might We Be Doing Some Emergency Podcasts in the next 72 hours. About Hopkins, you think? About Hopkins. Dalvin Nixon. About Dalvin. It's June 1st, baby.

That's right. Dalvin, baby. Everybody's getting cut like my hair. It's June 1st. Alright, we'll see you later. Hopefully they still play better than your hair. Bye, everyone. For a limited time, switch to Shopify point of sale, and you could save up to 20% and improve your bottom line. We're so serious about savings, we've made this ad 20% shorter.

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