Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Avoid These Guys at Their Current Cost (08/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 16, 2023

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on guest spots on our show, Zoom calls with our analysts and more! https://tinyurl.com/fftdonate Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts Dave and Heath have a list of mutual busts (4:35): Ken Walker, D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle and Darren Waller. They're being drafted too early, but we'll tell you the right time to draft them. Then we'll run through the news and notes (27:30) with a long talk about Breece Hall ... Heath's busts (36:10) include Joe Burrow and Nick Chubb! Heath loves these players, but not at their cost. He also talks about Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, Amari Cooper and more ... Dave's busts (50:00) are headlined by Lamar Jackson. We have a lot to say about him! Dave also is concerned about Terry McLaurin, Jonathan Taylor and David Njoku at their current ADPs ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've got a list of busts for you today on Fantasy Football Today. It's actually a very big day here for us. We've got busts today, and then we've got breakouts tonight. If you want to subscribe to our YouTube channel, you can see it live. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. We're going to have a bunch of shows beginning at 7 o'clock and ending sometime around 10. We won't be on the entire time, but if you subscribe to the channel,

you'll get notified when the episodes get scheduled. Welcome, everybody. Let's talk about some players who are not going to meet ADP. On YouTube, our boy, our producer, Thomas Schaefer, says, bust candidates to avoid. He says, big busts, and he has DK Metcalf growling at us in the thumbnail. They don't get much bigger than DK Metcalf in terms of just like the size of his arms

and he could shred me to pieces. I would guess if we were, if we were measuring busts amongst players who actually accrue fantasy points, he would be towards the top of the, of the bust list. Exactly what I'm saying, but also he terrifies me. So I'm just going to be nice. But what, what is a bust? Is it a player who just completely stinks? Is, does he miss his ADP by like two rounds going to be nice. But what is a bust? Is it a player who just completely stinks? Does he miss his ADP by like two rounds?

You know, Heath, what's a bust? I mean, a bust encompasses all those things. A lot of the busts this year are going to be guys who get hurt and ruin fantasy seasons. And we're not trying to project injuries. So we didn't call anybody a bust for that. What I basically looked at was guys

in the top first six rounds, because I think it's hard to call somebody a bust if they're being drafted in round eight or round nine or round 10. But the guys being drafted in the first six rounds who I am at least a round behind their ADP. Okay. Dave Richard, any quick thoughts on that? I mean, it's the same thing. Everybody knows what a, any quick thoughts on that? I mean,

it's the same thing. Everybody knows what a bus is a player that you want to avoid because he's not worth what you're going to have to draft in that. I would like for him to not even be close, at least around, right? At least around. You can't be like,

I'm taking him four picks later. I think there could be a subtle difference for early round picks. Okay. And players that are like, for example, you can make the case that patrick mahomes with an adp of 10 to 15 is a bust based on that i'm you know i would still take him in round two i'm not going to say that he's a total bust in round one i just wouldn't

take him in round one and that was one of the kind of cheat codes that i've i think we've all used probably over the last few years just whatever qbB is being drafted as QB one, that's two rounds ahead of where we thought they should go. Because we didn't said don't take one until the end of round three. And so that was an easy bust. It's more difficult if Mahomes is going to go between 10 and 15 for me, because I've got Mahomes going like 19th. And I assume that these ADPs probably factor in some, some super flex or two quarterback drafts. Now I will make this point really early because I texted it to you guys last night. Like when we're looking at fantasy pros, ADP, and when we're talking about quarterbacks,

all of these other sites account four points per pass touchdown. CBS standard scoring is six points per pass touchdown. I think Patrick Mahomes in early round two and a four point per pass touchdown league is a bust case. And pretty much all of the quarterbacks based on their ADP are because the difference between quarterbacks, especially pocket passers is not near as big if they only get four points for a pass touchdown. CBS ADP right now,

McCaffrey one, Jefferson two, Eckler three, Patrick Mahomes four. So we would, we would say don't take Patrick Mahomes four. Do you think, though, that in the last five years, other than maybe one year, any of the people who drafted Patrick Mahomes in round one regretted it at the end of the year?

It's a great point. It's a great point. And if you have the fourth pick, you're probably not going to get Mahomes. I mean, he did go 24th in a draft we did last night, but it's a lot of CBS people in that draft. For the most part, Mahomes isn't making it till 20th. But still, so then why should we say, no way should you take him fourth overall?

Probably because you can take Josh Allard or Jalen Hurts in the second round, and there's just not that big of a difference. What are you passing up at fourth overall to take Patrick Mahomes? You're not taking advantage of the depth of the position. Let's talk about the mutual busts. You guys both gave me a long list of busts. There were four of them that showed up on both of your bust lists.

Two of them are Seahawks, and two of them are tight ends. Ken Walker and DK Metcalf. Now, Dave was using half PPR ADP on Fantasy Pros. Heath was using full PPR, which is good. We can give you perspective on both. I'll just tell you this. If you toggle between half PPR and full PPR,

you're going to see running backs going a lot earlier in half PPR. You're going to see wide receivers going earlier in full PPR. And Ken Walker is RB16 or RB17 on either format. He's 37th in half PPR overall. He's 47th overall in full PPR and here are the players that he's going ahead of. In half PPR, Ken Walker is going ahead of Aaron Jones, Damian Pierce and Miles Sanders.

In full PPR, Ken Walker is going ahead of two of those three, Miles Sanders and Damian Pierce, but not ahead of Aaron Jones. Let's call him a round four pick. Early round four and half PPR, late round four and full PPR. Dave, he's a mutual bust. Ken Walker, we see in our consensus rankings, we have him as RB26, not RB16 or 17.

So your thoughts. We have been wringing our hands of Kenneth Walker since the NFL draft because of what the Seahawks have done. And there's been absolutely nothing this summer to make us think otherwise that Kenneth Walker is going to shock us and be a league winner. He does have league winning upside in his profile. Okay.

Fast running back. Certainly somebody who can make big plays. We saw that last year. I just don't know how many opportunities he's going to get from game to game. He'll get a, you know, more than a token few, but I think we're looking at a Seahawks offense. It's going to throw the ball more than we've ever given them credit for. This is a team that on first and second downs, they've given their running back carries anywhere from 18 to 18 and a half carries per game on average. I think that number dwindles. I think the receptions dwindle specifically for Walker because Charbonnet was drafted to the team because Smith Najigba was drafted to the team. So it becomes a number crunch for him. I like him better in non PPR

because I think that he'll be able to at least get you, uh, uh, I don't know, maybe 1200 total yards. That's still pretty good, but I don't think he's going to at least get you, I don't know, maybe 1200 total yards. That's still pretty good, but I don't think he's going to get a ton of touchdowns and it really caps his upside in full PPR because I don't even know if he's catching 20 passes this year. Great player, tough situation. I would take him in round five at the absolute or last. Yeah. I think we even have a little bit at least of question about the great player part we know he's a great player in terms of making big plays um but that's that's pretty much all that he was great at last year he was absolutely terrible in terms of um receiving work and not good in terms of the number of his carries that went for one yard or fewer. He was really, really good at making the big plays. And then the team went

and drafted a second round running back that is better profiles as being better than him in the two areas where he struggled last year. Would you guys take all three of them? I know you'd take Aaron Jones over him. Would you take Miles Sanders and Damian Pierce over him? For sure. By a lot. I mean, Pierce, you expecting more catches?

Who catches more passes, Pierce or Walker? Pierce. Damian Pierce. Pierce might have more touchdowns, too. you expecting more catches who catches more passes pierce or walker pierce damian pierce pierce might have more touchdowns too um i would just like to that explosive run rate thing and that well not okay right so he was this boomer bus running back as heath mentioned he made a lot of big plays he also had a lot of carries for zero or negative yards he was one of the worst in the nfl in that but it's really an interesting stat because there are a lot of great running backs that are low in that

metric. If I could, like Dalvin Cook was, let's see, who else? Now, has Dalvin Cook been historically or he was last year when his efficiency fell a little bit? This is not the list that I am looking for. Jonathan

Taylor has been on that list toward the bottom. ETN, not much better than him. Alexander Madison, for what it's worth, didn't have a ton of carries, was worse than Ken Walker here.

DeAndre Swift, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, they were all below average in that. They weren't as bad as Ken Walker. But Travis Etienne basically was. I think Etienne and DeAndre Swift both make – like the Chubb one surprises me,

and I'd be curious if that was a one-year thing or if that's happened throughout his career, and that would give me some pause. But the Etienne-Swift-Walker comparison as runners fits perfectly with the way I view those guys. The difference is that I think both Etienne and DeAndre Swift can do things in the passing game. All right.

Let's go to DK Metcalf then. He's a round three pick. He's wide receiver 15 in half Ppr and full ppr and he's going ahead of debo samuel calvin ridley he's going ahead of joe mixon um aaron jones and in full ppr he's going ahead of all of those players and also jameer gibbs lamar jackson and joe burrow so when would you guys feel comfortable drafting d Metcalf Heath you can start I would feel comfortable with him in the middle of round five I like him a little bit better as a wide receiver in non-PPR and half PPR than I do in full PPR but he falls behind more running backs in that format he is a borderline number two wide receiver I think it's Jamie who always

says there's actually 30 number two wide receivers and And so if we have a guy ranked 30th, that doesn't mean that we don't think he's a number two. I think Metcalf is a number two. The problem is that he's not like he's had basically one season where he outperformed this draft cost. He's been in a dead heat with Tyler Lockett in terms of fantasy production. And they just added a guy in JSN who might, and I think if everything goes as planned, will be a better target earner than DK Metcalf. I just, like, I would expect an efficiency spike from him. I would expect that his red zone production bounces back.

But I do think the targets fall off. And I think by the end of year, there's a risk that JSN's the number one wide receiver in this offense. I have a hard time loving DK Metcalf even in round four when Tyler Lockett's outproduced him in PPR and non-PPR on a per-game basis each of the last two years. And now they're adding Smith Najigba into the mix. So you need a hyper-efficient year from DK Metcalf for him to pay off.

And could it happen? It would need to be like one of the most efficient years ever because I agree with Heath. I think there's a target dip coming for sure for DK Metcalf. Where I don't agree with Heath is where to take him. I would still go a little bit earlier than the middle of round five, but we're splitting hairs. I think he's going to be one of the most overdrafted and underproducing receivers in fantasy this year. He hasn't even gotten over 14 PPR points per game each of the last two years. Yeah. He was playing through a foot injury and a Russell Wilson injury two years ago. I have made that excuse for him. He needed off season surgery.

I, like I said, what's the excuse for last year? There is none. There is none. He just said, I don't know that he needs an excuse. Like he's got four seasons in the NFL, three of those seasons, he averaged between 56 and 62 yards per game. Okay. But I'm not really counting his rookie year because that's actually a good rookie year. He had a 900-yard rookie season. That's really good. His second year was outstanding. I don't want to just repeat everything I said last week.

His second year was outstanding. That was great. His fourth year sucked. His third year was interesting. His third year, he got off to a great start. Then Russell Wilson got hurt. Then DK Metcalf got hurt and played through it. I could have made excuses for him.

I can't make any excuses for him after last year. So look at the ADP. Sorry. Look at the consensus rankings that we have on our YouTube channel right now. We have Hopkins, Jerry Judy, Christian Kirk, Drake London, DK Metcalf, and then Amari Cooper. Specifically with Kirk and London, you could have similar concerns about a new guy coming in for Jacksonville,

Bijan coming in for Atlanta, and of course London doing everything without Kyle Pitts at the end of last season. So I have a hard time with that, with London and Kirk versus Metcalf. How do you rank those three guys? London, Kirk, and Metcalfe. How do you rank those three guys? London, Kirk, and Metcalfe? I don't love any of the three. I'm probably looking for all three

of those guys in like round five or round six, somewhere in that type of range. I'll take Metcalfe at the top of that group, followed by London and Kirk. And I think what you see when you look at this list, and I know the people listening can't see it, but you said Hopkins, Judy, Kirk, London, Metcalf, and then it's Cooper, McLaurin, Johnson, Godwin, Dotson. Like we all have five of those guys ahead of DK Metcalf. It's just not the same

five guys. Um, and that's why like, I same five guys. And that's why I'm the guy who pushed Christian Kirk up ahead of DK Metcalf. But I've got Jerry Judy like four spots behind DK Metcalf. The reason that Metcalf belongs in that range is because they are,

they do have the similar concerns. I think, like we're all expecting Trevor Lawrence to throw, what, 75 more passes than Geno this year? And I just think that Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk are probably going to be pretty close in targets, but I don't think there's a third guy like Tyler Lockett or JSN, whichever one.

You have five of these guys ahead of Metcalf? You don't have Judy? Well, there are four in the consensus rankings. So which one? Give us the names again. We should tell everybody. Hopkins ahead of Metcalf? For sure.

In PPR. This is in PPR. Right. PPR, I would rather have Hopkins. Judy. Rather have Judy in PPR. Not you, Heath, though. No.

Kirk. I have Kirk ahead. I do not. I've got Metcalf ahead. Drake London. I have Kirk ahead. I do not. I've got Metcalf ahead. Drake London. I have London ahead. I have Metcalf ahead. Cooper.

Cooper's one spot ahead of DK for me. I have Cooper behind. McLaurin. One spot behind DK. I have McLaurin ahead of DK. Wow. Okay. Deontay.

For sure. Deontay. I'm out on Deontay. All right. All right. That's fine. Let's go to our tight ends on the mutual bust list. George Kittle and Darren Waller. Kittle, his ADP is really surprising to me.

He is tight end four. And he, of course, has been a top three tight end per game. I think it's five years in a row. But he's tight end four. And he's in between TJ Hawkinson and then a group of three who have basically the same exact ADP. Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goddard. But yeah. Okay.

So let's make it. I think we've made our thoughts clear on Kittle. But make him again, I suppose. Where should he go, Dave? Where should he be among tight ends? He's in that third tier of tight ends, and still in my rankings, he's sixth among tight ends, but I wouldn't take him in round five or round six,

maybe in round seven. I would consider him. I don't like what happened last year when everybody was healthy and Purdy was under center and McCaffrey was there really was McCaffrey coming to San Francisco that started to hurt George Kittle when everybody was healthy. And then when Debo was out, Kittle's numbers went crazy, tons of touchdowns. That's what you have to hope for. If you draft George Kittle is that he scores a bunch of touchdowns in his five games. This includes

the playoff games. Two of the playoff games, we're not counting the Philadelphia game where Brock Purdy got hurt. Five games where everybody's healthy in the San Francisco offense. He averaged 4.2 targets per game, 10 PPR points per game, 3.4 catches per game. He had two touchdowns in those games. Both came against Arizona in Week 18. I have to worry about him becoming a touchdown or bust tight end

if he's going to continue to see only 4.2 targets per game. Yeah. And I don't know if anybody else is feeling this way, but I kind of have concerns about Brock Purdy turning back into a pumpkin. And I don't feel a whole lot better that the backup plan is trey lance and or sam darnold it's going to be darnold um you saw the preseason game you know why well i've seen five years of sam darnold so i i don't know i don't know for sure if sam darnold has beat you out for a backup quarterback job, then you know that you're in

trouble. You know your future in the NFL. Let's focus on Kittle though. That's the point. If he doesn't have a great quarterback, does that hurt him or maybe does that help him? Or is it something that we can

just write off because there's so many other targets in the offense? I think the only case for Kittle is that obviously he's great, but also we always project the 49ers at the start of the season as if everybody's going to be healthy, but they're not. You know, I mean, McCaffrey and Debo, Kittle himself obviously is an injury risk, so I always struggle with that because I feel the same exact way about all of these guys,

but there are definitely going to be times when someone's not on the field. I don't really know how to... I'm not taking Kittle for the most part. I think history suggests with 13 missed games in the last three years and Kittle turning 30 in October

that he's probably the most likely of those guys to miss sometime. Yeah. He hasn't played a full season since Yeah. With Waller right behind him. Waller's right behind him. Oh, no, he meant the 49ers guys. Oh, I thought you meant among tight ends. No, let's go to Waller then.

Why is he a bust, guys? He's got basically, like I said, the same ADP as Pitts and Goddard. They're all more or less tied for tight end 5, 6, 7. We're talking about round 5, 6, I guess. Yeah. All right, Dave, why is Darren Waller on the bus list? He's on the bus list because I think he's being drafted too soon, but I would take him ahead of George Kittle. I just wouldn't take him where ADP's taking him. He's 30 years old. He's missed at least six games each of the past two seasons. Last year, if you exclude week five when he had just eight snaps,

his pace in 2022 was terrible. It was 733 yards and six touchdowns. It's 9.4 PPR points per game if you include the 53 catches. You have to assume he'll miss some time because he's at that point in his career. I don't think he'll be wasted when he's healthy. I don't think that the Giants are going to ignore him. Daniel Jones is going to ignore him. And he's a differentiator in that offense when it comes to his size. And the film late last year actually wasn't bad for Darren Waller. He was still moving pretty well. I think the Giants are going to be a lot more focused on spreading the ball around. They were there last year. I think they're going to do it again. Waller might be at the top of the pecking order. He might average 6.8 targets per game, and that's really good for a tight end.

I just don't know if he's going to be as effective. And I think he's going to be the guy that defenses are going to take away when they get in the red zone. I think that's who they're going to choose to take away first and foremost on passing downs. So it makes me worried about just how many touchdowns he's going to get. And I'm worried about how much he's going to play this year. And I don't want to pay what the ADP says for Darren Waller. So how would you guys rank Kittle, Waller, Pitts, Goddard?

Pitts is at the top of the list for me. I'll buy into his upside with a better quarterback. I think it's a better quarterback with Ritter than what he had last year because he was getting open last year. He seems healthy now. Pitts is at the top of the list, then Waller, then Kittle, then Goddard. I would take none of these guys with a top 50 pick in PPR. Yeah, I don't have any of them in the top 50. I've got Pitts round five. I mean, it's basically one round difference

between all of them. A slightly bigger difference between Kittle and Waller. But Pitts round five, Goddard round six, Kittle round seven, Waller round eight. Okay. Let me ask you guys a more general tight end question. I keep finding myself, more and more I do these drafts, not taking a tight end until pretty late. finding myself, more and more I do these drafts, not taking a tight

end until pretty late. And that has nothing to do with Kelsey. I just haven't been in the Kelsey zone, I guess. But pick six through eight, basically. But... There's a song for that. What is the song? I went to the Kelsey

zone. And I think it's a nice range between sixth and ninth overall. Very good, Dave. Thank you. I'm sure he would agree. I need Heath's aviator sunglasses now to match the song. Yeah, I was a little upset.

I just kept doing these drafts and I never end up with one of these top seven tight ends. And then I said, hey, listen, we gotta remember great or late, right? There's a purpose to why we keep saying great or late. But I was thinking every league I'm in so far has been either three receivers and one flex or two receivers and two flexes.

I think I'd be more likely to take one of these top seven tight ends if it were two running backs, two receivers, and one flex. In other words, if we were getting rid of a starting receiver or a starting flex. Do you guys agree with that? No, I don't know if I necessarily agree. No, I don't agree. Maybe that's why they are pushed up in ADP because more drafts are that way. Because I do think it's very likely that they would go earlier

if you couldn't start as many running backs and line receivers. I think so. And so maybe I'd be more okay with that. Specifically with Waller, I think the injury concerns that Dave hit on are certainly worth monitoring. The age, he's a year and a month older than George Kittle. He's going to turn 31 week one, I think. So that's a little bit of a concern. And then it's not just like, I know I get harassed on Twitter because I say Daniel Jones is not a great passer.

But there's been one player in the Daniel Jones era who's had more than 100 targets like this. He has, he runs and he's great at it. He runs so much that there's just not as many pass attempts and those past attempts are not above average in terms of accuracy or efficiency. And so it's just like, I don't, even if Waller's the number one target earner on the team, I believe each of the last two years, the number one target earner has received 76 targets. I won't get too far into this because Daniel Jones is on someone's bus list. We'll talk about that later.

Only thing I disagree with. Yeah, no. I think we're going to see more. I think we're going to see more pass attempts. They're going to lose more games this year. And I think they want to be more pass heavy. And I'll give you some stats on that in a little bit. We'll talk about his schedule then, too.

Exactly. All right. Draftathon is two weeks from today. Our 4 to 6 p.m. Eastern time extravaganza. 4 to 10. 4 to 10. It's a six-hour show on YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. We're going to have amazing guests throughout the show.

So join us for that. That's Draftathon. I'll tell you more about that as we get closer. Right now, though, what you need to do is go to tinyurl.com slash FFTdonate. We need to raise more money for St. Jude. So bid on some awesome things. Spots in our mock drafts, guest spots on this podcast,

Zoom calls with our analysts. So many awesome things to be a part of and not just fantasy football today, but across all of our podcasts, basically. So yeah, all of this is going to St. Jude. So help us raise, we're gonna hopefully crush $100,000 this year. Help us raise some money.

I also want to say, not to take any attention away from St. Jude, one of the people in my FFT Open division, and we raised $22,000 for St. Jude with that. That was great. One of the guys in my division is from Maui. So I made a donation last night. He told me what he's going through. And he actually was a little bit lucky,

but he's helping some people who really weren't. I made a donation last night. I just encourage everybody to do what you can to help out in that situation. We have a spot in the podcast league available at that URL, tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. It's not the 14-team podcast league. It's what we're calling now the leftovers league. It's 10- super flex half PPR. Heath and I share a team. We're going to

crush you. Join the leftovers league. Raise money for St. Jude. And finally, speaking of Daniel Jones, very clever. Putting Daniel Jones in the subject line is not going to get your your email read on the air. Already two people have done that this morning. It keeps happening. I appreciate the effort, but I'm not falling for it. We'll take a break. When we come back, an update on Brees Hall, Javante Williams, and maybe Alexander Madison, and then more busts. We'll be right back. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is

safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, news and notes. I'm going to give you guys four or five minutes on this because we have probably 25 more busts to get to for the second half of the show. 25? We have so many names. So let's talk about Brees Hall. The Jets are confident he'll be ready for week one,

but all signs indicate, including what Robert Sala said, they're going to be taking it very slowly with him. An ESPN report said that Dalvin Cook is expected to handle the work, more of the work, early in the season. So now, where are we? This keeps changing. Dave, where are we with when to draft Brees Hall,

when to draft Dalvin Cook, who still is not with the team. He's expecting a child, and he's still recovering from shoulder surgery. Yeah, I don't know if I'm the best person to ask because I've been on the Brees Hall roller coaster for the last 36 hours, and I still view him as somebody who can eventually be an absolute league winner. And when the news first came out, he was still on the pup list. I sank him like a rock. I wanted Dalvin cook. Then he came off the pup list. I, I had him very high.

I talked about it on the show yesterday that he was worthy of being in a top 40 pick. If he's not going to play as much in the first four weeks of the season, then that's going to hurt his overall numbers. That goes without saying, but maybe it makes him much, much more of a concern that he won't even be startable until Halloween. So I readjusted my projections on Brees Hall and I moved him down. And there was a point in the draft yesterday, I'd pick 51 overall. So that's, you know, round five for sure. And I thought to myself, I can't wait to get Brees Hall with this pick. And it turned out that Brees Hall went in front of me and I was actually upset until I got James Conner in round six. And I was like, oh, well, I think I'd rather have James Conner. And so that was a light bulb moment for me that Brees Hall was

ranked too high for me as a top 40 player. So I am now in the range of taking Brees Hall. He's in that round five, six range. I've got him 57th overall. Some people will still say it's way too high. I think it's fine. I moved Camara ahead of him. I moved Alexander Madison ahead of him. We talked about Connor and moving him ahead. And now all that being said, I got a text this morning from somebody who I trust who's around the jets and he's adamant that this is going to be Brees Hall's backfield once he's ready to go. So I'm back on the stinking roller coaster again with Brees Hall. I think he's going to end up being around five pick, but I still, I know he's coming back from an ACL and I know running back swimming from an ACL are always tough to gauge. A lot of the times they don't do well.

I don't know if I can help myself, but that's, that's a me problem. Okay. Everybody watching. If you guys don't want to trust it, I get it. Don't take them. Leave them for guys like me. I think his value is so depressed that he's worth taking, certainly in round five.

Yeah, it's a six, seven turn thing for me. I just, and I love the talent, but we already have the ACL concerns. Yes, he's back at practice, but he's still not a full participant in practice. He's still not 100%. We know the history of the inefficiency of running backs in year one from the ACL, and now his team just gave $7 million

to a guy who's been an all-pro running back or a pro-bowl running back for four years. Maybe it could work out. I mean, the talent's there that it could work out, and maybe you get a final five or six games like J.K. Dobbins had last year. But what was J.K. Dobbins' season worth last year

in terms of draft capital? Oh, none. A free agent pickup. He stunk, you know. But, yeah, he got re-injured. So that's, and so did Chris Godwin. But that, you know, coming back from ACL, I don't know that we can say

that that's going to happen. No, I don't think we can say that it will happen at all. I do think we should view him as more likely to have that happen than a guy who is not coming off an ACL or not currently injured.

All right, so you say 6-7 turn. Dave says round five, round six. What about Dalvin Cook? Would you take Dalvin Cook ahead of, say,

A.J. Dillon or Samaj P. Ryan? No. No? No. But I moved him up. He's not healthy either. Hmm?

He's not healthy either. Maybe. I mean, like, obviously, he had the shoulder surgery, but is he staying away from the team for a week because of the child, or is he staying away from the team for a week because he's not healthy? He also might not be that good. He 28 he's his metrics have been declining it's all possible yes that's true but even a declining dalvin cook is better than the depth they had behind breeze hall did i when did did i say that it wasn't of course it's better but okay but he he can still be listen i gotta be fair dalvin can still be productive i don't

think he's going to turn back the clock to where he was you know two or three years ago all right the other thing is that like right now it's individual drills for breeze hall and that's it you mentioned this yesterday adam they've got a month before week one breeze hall is going to get ramped up and if he's looking, maybe based on the text I got, maybe they won't hesitate to use him. And I know that I agree with Heath that the J.K. Dobbins comparison is fair. What if he's more like Tony Pollard from last year? And I don't know if this is fair to say because Pollard isn't coming back

from an ACL, but Tony Pollard needed how many weeks? Two, four, six, seven weeks to really break out. And then when he broke out, that dude broke out. If we were getting that from Brees Hall, and I think that's got to be in the range of outcomes, I think fantasy managers would be happy taking him in round five, dealing with some bad weeks, and then having him on the team to be a league winner in the second half of the season. It's not just that he's not coming off an ACL. He also doesn't have the Cowboys offensive line.

Okay, and that's another issue. But he didn't have it last year. Did you watch Hard Knocks? Guys, come on. We got to get moving here to our bus here. Go ahead. Don't guys me. Well, guy, yes.

We don't need to talk about Hard Knocks right now. Aaron Rodgers also hurt his calf, so that's something to keep in mind as well um you know probably not a big deal giovante williams is expected to play on saturday anthony richardson has been named the starting quarterback uh for the colts speaking of busts i think we should have a little alexander madison conversation here because it seems like there are still some veteran running backs out there there's four net thereette. There's Kareem Hunt, obviously. And it seems like Minnesota could be a destination.

It just, they are, looks like in the mix. So when that happens, is that going to be a big deal for Alexander Madison? I've been getting fairly excited about him. What do you guys think? Are we worried about

bus potential for Madison? Yes, because we've seen running backs of that profile, career backups who get thrust into a role and flame out. In fact, one of the guys who is the most obvious example of that was actually visiting Minnesota yesterday, Mike Davis. I think maybe the Vikings heard us comparing Alexander Madison to Mike Davis and said, yeah, we should bring him in. I don't really think like we're not sure how much Dalvin Cook has left. I'm less sure how much Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette has left. And so, yes, it would be a little bit of a concern. Yes, there is a little bit of bust risk for Alexander Madison, but I would much rather draft him than Breesel.

I would too. I think he's got a shot at double-digit touchdowns if he's the guy for the majority of the year for Minnesota. Okay. Kansas City wide receiver Justin Ross was carted off with a leg injury, not expected to be serious. Carolina wide receiver Terrace Marshall tweaked his back. Micah Parsons hurt his leg, but he says he's not worried about it. He says he's not worried about it. What I've learned is that when it comes to sources about injuries, the least reliable people

are, in this order, Pete Carroll and the player who got injured. You should not listen to them when it comes to injuries. Greg Rosenthal of NFL Network says that Malik Willis is likely to win the backup job behind Ryan Tannehill, so that would mean he would be beating out Will Levis. I think they both

struggled in that preseason game. He looked a lot better. I heard reports that Willis has been better in camp. He did look a lot better than Levis, and better than himself last year for sure. But he struggled. Seattle linebacker Jordan Brooks is off the pup list. He tore his ACL in January.

He was an IDP stud. Wow. Good to have him back. He's not guaranteed to be back for week one, though. All right, let's get into our busts. So quarterback busts. Let's go Heath's list first here. You've got Joe Burrow at quarterback.

He's going 37th overall in ADP. Is he, what, a QB5? Is he just after Lamar Jackson or basically tied with Lamar Jackson? Your thoughts on Burrow. Yeah, I think there's actually a difference when it comes to half PPR versus full PPR, which one of those guys is four or five,

and that doesn't make any sense at all. But I just, I can't take him, especially in leagues and again all these fantasy pros adps are four points per pass touchdown leagues i i can't take him ahead of lamar jackson or justin fields in a league that only rewards four points per pass touchdown especially when he's not even 100 yet not guaranteed to play week one i do think that burrow is for me right now, he's QB seven just behind Justin Herbert. If he was 100% right now, he would be QB six and right behind Fields and Lamar,

but that's in six point for past touchdown leagues. There's a bigger gap here. More importantly, I don't really think Lamar or Burrow or Fields should be going at that three, four turn. I like Mahomes, Allen, and Hertz at the end of round two, and I think there should be a two-round gap before we get to the next quarterback. I'd be looking at the end of round four before I took my QB4, whoever it was. All right, so you're saying even in a six-point-per-passing touchdown league, Joe Burrow would be QB6 if he were 100% healthy right now? Yes. Okay. Dave, do you agree with this bus call?

Yeah, it's too soon to take any of these quarterbacks. And I agree that Burrow fields and Jackson, which is how I have them rank should be late round four picks, not even around five late round four is where to go with them. I'm projecting Burrow. Like he's going to be okay. The fact that he's already starting to throw again,

he's got a month to get ready. I think he'll be okay. Yeah. Okay. So I am projecting a little bit that Joe Burrow will get in plenty of practice before week one, and he will be his usual fireballing self. Oh, and I also agree that he should be behind these guys in four point for passing touchdown leagues. Do you agree that he should be behind Fields and Jackson in six point? No. No, he should be ahead of them.

Running back. Heath's running back busts. Nick Chubb. Let's just stop. I'll give you the list. Chubb at 13th overall, RB5. Najee Harris, 29th. Brees Hall, 33rd. Ken Walker, 46th. We talked about both of them.

Alvin Kamara, 57th. Dalvin Cook, 65th. I'm not sure I believe that ADP anymore. I'd like to know what it is. Actually, maybe I do. Because a lot of people actually prefer him to Brees Hall. But this ADP is from way before the signing with the Jets. So anyways, Cook at 65.

Pacheco at 70. I'll say all the names again, but we'd have to spend some time on Nick Chubb. Calling him a Cook at 65, Pacheco at 70. I'll say all the names again, but we'd have to spend some time on Nick Chubb. You're calling him a bust at 13th overall. Maybe this is not a guy that has to be a full round worse than his ADP. You tell me, where should Nick Chubb go in full PPR? I think I have him exactly a full round. I think I have him at 25th. So he's going at the one-two turn. I have him at the two-three turn. I just think expecting him to finish RB5 in full PPR is basically expecting Nick Chubb in his age 28 season

to have a career year. And I'm not willing to project that. He gets hidden a little bit in the guys that we worry about falling off because he's going to begin the year as age 27. He doesn't turn 28 until later in the year. But I do think he's really never been a pass catcher. He had 36 catches as a career high, and that was in a full 16-game season.

I don't think he's going to help you that much in that regard. He's kind of been up and down in terms of touchdowns. He's missed some games because of injury already. Listen, he's one of the greatest runners in the NFL of the last five years. I'm not trying to disparage Nick Chubb as a runner, but if the Browns are going to throw the ball a lot more because they have Deshaun Watson and Deshaun Watson's probably going to run more based on what we saw in the preseason than any quarterback Nick Chubb's played with, I'm not sure there's a huge increase in volume coming,

even with Kareem Hunt gone. I don't want to bet on a running back at 28 years old having a career year. Heath and I got to the same place different ways. I think Chubb is going to see potentially the type of target share that he had in 2019, which was 3.1 targets per game, 2.3 catches per game. He finishes RB 11 that year at 15.1 PPR points per game. I am expecting Chubb to share some of that passing downs work with Jerome Ford. I think that team likes Jerome Ford.

They did not, he wasn't a hundred percent, so they didn't play him in the preseason game against Washington, but I think you're going to see Ford out there. I was impressed with Deshaun Watson and how comfortable he seemed in the offense. His stats weren't great. He looked good. He admitted after the game that last year he was not comfortable.

This year he is. And I have the same feeling that he does, that this Browns team is going to throw more than they ever have under Kevin Stefanski. They've been below 55% pass rate. Each of three years was Stefanski. I think they open it up and Chubb just had a career year, 1,764 total yards, 13 touchdowns.

It helped that he played 17. Would you take him, Dave? I'm closer to ADP than, than Heath is. I would still say he's fine at like anywhere between well 16th or later let's just say that what about in half ppr a little bit higher than that and in non-ppr is the first round pick i agreed in non-ppr for sure if i if i was using

half p i don't know where he is in half ppr if i was using half ppr adp i don't think i would have been a full round behind him i think he's's 10th maybe in half PPR, and I'd probably be closer to 16th in half PPR. I think there's a little bit more risk than people are acknowledging, and I don't think he's going to have a huge role in the passing game. But that's, again, part of my projections process. I have a hard time when a guy's established in the league for five years projecting them to do something they've never really done. Deshaun has a 15.8% career running back target rate. One year of his career, he threw over 20% of his targets to a running back, and it was last season in Cleveland. For reference, 15.8% is extremely low.

Yes. Thank you for extremely low. Yes. Thank you for saying that. Where do you have him in non PPR? Heath? I've got Nick Chubb at seventh overall. That sounds about right. Okay. Okay.

There was one time before Kareem hunt was there. First eight games of 2019. Chubb was on pace for 53 catches. That's the one that was the 2019 season, right? But you got to split that up because half the season he had Kareem Hunt, half the season he didn't hunt was suspended for the first eight games. It was a huge drop in his catches. Once Hunt came aboard Najee Harris at 29.

I know you do not like that at all. When would you take Najee Harris? Heath? Um, he's a, he's a round four pick for me. I've got him at RB 17 in full PPR. Um,

just, just, just move Jameer Gibbs ahead of him. I've been a little bit low on Gibbs as well. Um, but yeah, I just, I think that I can see why people are excited about him because the offensive line should be better and he has seen a ton of work. I've said this a hundred times over the summer, so I don't know if I need to say it again, but there hasn't been a running back who has received 600 touches in their first two seasons and been as bad as both a rusher and a receiver as Najee Harris, who's ever had more than one top 20 season again for the rest of their career. Oh, it's amazing stat. Um, all right. So Dave, where would you real quick day where would you take

nashi harris as you've been high i still i have harris as a late round three pick in full ppr all right alvin camara at 57 overall when what do you think that's too early heath that's yeah that's why i put him on the list oh really okay interesting i've got him at the end of round six. I know you were encouraged by how he looked, and he did. I think that's part of the equation, is he's been so much less efficient his past two seasons, both in terms of all three, yards per carry,

yards per target, yards per touch, have not been the same guy. And now he's got Jamal Williams and Taysom Hill, both to deal with in the red zone. And maybe they're going to throw it a whole lot more, but I'm not convinced of that. And even if they do, I think it's probably because they have Michael Thomas healthy. And if both Chris Olavi and Michael Thomas are healthy and on the field, I don't think Camara's target share is going to be what it was in the heyday of Drew Brees, because Derek Carr will be able to throw the ball more than five yards

on the field. And so I think there's a lot of risk for a running back his age who's already shown signs of decline and isn't going to play the first three weeks of the season. And I'm not sure the same upside exists. I know we like James Conner better than him. He's going after Alvin Kamara. Do we like Cam Akers and Rashad White better than Alvin Kamara?

White, yes. Akers, no. In full PPR. I agree with that, but I have Kamara and Akers 70 and 71. So, like, it's not, I'm not far off. Do you like Kamara or Brees Hall? Kamara. Me too.

Do we like DeAndre Swift better than Camara? No. No. All right. Why is Isaiah Pacheco on your bust list? Well, another guy who is not healthy, and even when he was healthy last year, was not really very good for fantasy purposes.

He's the definition of a trap back. Um, I, you're not going to catch hardly any passes. He, we know what the chiefs do in the red zone. It all kinds of crazy stuff, except for handed off to a running back and have him plunge into the line of

scrimmage. And so I don't think you can project him for a good touchdown season. And he's a guy who was a seventh round pick and could be replaced at literally any moment. And I don't think he's even been on the practice field so far this preseason. Okay. So would you take some magic P Ryan over him?

By a lot. David Montgomery. I know you like him. These guys are going after him. How about AJ Dillon or P Ryan or no. So sorry. I know you like him. These guys are going after him. How about A.J. Dillon or P. Ryan? Or no, sorry, or Pacheco? It's Dillon for me because I think they profile for the same number of touches.

Dillon might actually have a goal line role, though. All right. We've got to take a break here. We have a lot more names. We haven't even gotten to Dave's bust yet. Wide receivers, tight ends, and then all of Dave's busts after this on Fantasy Football today. Let's take a look at Heath's wide receiver busts other than DK Metcalf, who we discussed.

There's only one other name here. It's Amari Cooper. He's going 41st overall. He is 29 years old. He was wide receiver 19 per game last season. And that is, let's see, Cooper is wide receiver for 18 this season. So why is this too early for Amari Cooper? I just think he's being drafted pretty close to his ceiling.

And there's a risk. I mean, there have been people that have said that Elijah Moore is the wide receiver one on this team. I don't have it projected that way, and I don't think that that's what it's going to be. But I do think it's a possibility I don't think that the 25 definitely 20 but up to 26 27 tight end target share is going to change all that much in Kevin Stefanski's system you know how I feel about tight end buckets and so I think Cooper is is chopping up those wide receiver targets with better target competition and you can only start him for like eight or nine games because you can't start him when he's on the road all right um so and and i

think everybody like all of us dave and jamie like him more sportsline likes him more but we all have him ranked lower than where he's being drafted yeah a little a little bit. But who has more upside that's going behind him, behind Cooper? Well, I don't have the list. Why don't you give me a list of the wide receivers who are being drafted? All right.

Well, some of them are obvious. Keenan Allen. Yep. Terry McLaurin. I don't think so, personally. Nope. Me neither. I think they're pretty similar.

Hopkins. You have to say yes. Way more. DJ Moore. I think they're pretty similar. Hopkins? I have to say yes. Way more. DJ Moore? I would say yes. Jerry Judy? More. I don't even like Jerry Judy.

I have him behind Amari Cooper, and I would say he still has more upside, just a much lower floor. Yeah, that's the thing. Does Cooper have a high floor? It's not all about upside. Eight to nine weeks, he does. All right.

Let's talk about your tight end busts, and they are Kittle and Waller. No, we won't talk about them. We're not talking about any of your tight end busts. We've already talked about Kittle and Waller. And finally, it's time for Dave Richards' busts. Quarterback, Lamar. I love this.

Let's talk about this. I lose sleep at night with this one, Lamar Jackson. Me too. I lose sleep at night with this one. Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson as QB four or five. He's pretty close there. Your thoughts? So all the early QBs have an ADP that's too high, but the one that worries me the most is Lamar Jackson's where he's in that late round three, early round four range.

You can tell me what his ADP is, Adam. 33rd? That's round three. early round four range, you can tell me what his ADP is, Adam. 33rd. That's round three. I can't do it. I know that he's got glorious upside given all the changes, but I think it's just too risky to prioritize him versus Burrow, who was very good last year, and Fields, who when he was running from week five through week 17, I guess it was, I think it pales in comparison.

Might he throw more and run less? Is that what the Ravens are going to ask him to do? Well, anywhere from 30% to 35% of his fantasy production has come from rushing over the course of his career. So if he's running less, he'll be asked to make up for it with his passing. And over the past two seasons, in the red zone, his completion rate is 50.5%. That's below league average. average he's missed 10 games and he's only run for five touchdowns over those last two seasons i'm a little bit nervous that he can make up the gap if he's truly running less it sounds like the offense is going to be spread formation get the ball out quick

hope that your receivers can make plays after the catch. He does have receivers who can do that when they're healthy. Hopefully they all stay healthy. That would help Lamar Jackson put up some career highs in passing, and that would probably help him finish as a top four or five fantasy quarterback. I'm not taking any of that second tier of quarterbacks in late round three, and Jackson's the one that I think has the most risk compared to Burrow and Justin Fields. So first off, a point of agreement.

I'm not taking any of those quarterbacks in round three either. I already said that. But I think the context that all of these leagues that we're looking at for this ADP are four points per pass touchdown means that Lamar should be no worse than QB five. And there's an excellent, a much better case for him at QB four than there is for Joe Burrow. The other thing I would say is if Lamar Jackson has a career year as a passer, he will be QB one. Like he threw 36 touchdown passes and 3,100 yards in 2019. If he, if he

tops those two numbers, he's going to be QB1. The only real risk. Go ahead. Well, I was just going to say, what will it take for him to have a career year as a passer? I think a good start would be an offensive coordinator who understands the passing game, which he now has. Hopefully. And the best wide receiver core of his career, which I think he now has. Which I don't know if you can count on to be there for 12 games, much less 17.

Yeah, well, one of the balances though, Heath, is if people are projecting a big bump in his pass attempts, is that going to come at the expense of his rush attempts? You know, it's almost like people are like, well, he's going to come at the expense of his rush attempts? It's almost like people are like, well, he's going to rush for all the... He's more like an 1,100, 1,200-yard rusher per 17 games. Is that going to be 800 this year? Is it going to be 1,000?

What do you have Lamar Jackson projected for? I think I have him projected for 900. I would not expect him if... And again, I don't know. The key is going to be, and what Dave said will probably impact it. If all the wide receivers get hurt, then I would guess he's probably going to rush for 1,100 yards if Lamar Jackson's the one who stays healthy because nobody's going to be open. They're going to design a lot more pass plays.

But does Lamar get the ball to the guy or does he just take off and run? Either of those are fine for fantasy purposes. I've got him at 877 rushing yards. Okay. So CBS ADP, CBS League's default to six point per passing touchdown leagues doesn't mean you can't change that. But CBS ADP has Lamar Jackson as QB five. Quarterbacks are flying off the board. The homes fifth Hertz, 11th Allen,

12th burrow, 23rd Jackson, 25th Justin Herbert, 29th. And then based on that incredible value on Justin Fields, 45th overall 20 picks after Lamar Jackson. But he's in between burrow and Herbert here and ahead of way ahead of Justin Fields.

You know, look, if, if you want to look at the best case scenario, the best case scenario for Joe Burrow is what he did last year when he had a healthy Jason Higgins. And that was 4,945 yards. This is the pace. 4,945 yards, 42 touchdowns, six interceptions, plus 223 rushing

yards and four rushing touchdowns. I still think that best case scenario is better than anyone but the top three. Well, that best case scenario is only about 90% of Lamar Jackson's career high. I don't think Lamar Jackson's best case scenario is his career high. And I think that's a very frustrating thing to argue against when one quarterback can reach his career best, but another quarterback cannot. Like if you were saying that somebody's ceiling is what they've already done, but the other guys is not. I don't know how Burrow's never actually done that.

Even that's a point for right. That's not done it. But yeah, because I could see Burrow having a 5,000 yard season with 42 touchdowns. I mean, that's what guys, if he's going to throw the ball. If you're just talking about something that exists in your head, like, yeah, I could see that.

Well, I don't think it's that unrealistic. What relevance does that have? Right, how likely is that to happen? That's what, I mean, that's what we do in fantasy. I don't think 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns is unrealistic for a guy who's, if he throws 38 times a game

with Jamar Chase and T Higgins, I don't think that's really out of the question. Jackson has been so up and down in his career. And I just like, I don't think my homes can do what he did in his best season. I think Jackson had a huge outlier season. And that's the other thing is like my homes has been within one fantasy point of that twice in the last four years.

And Lamar has been like seven points away from his seven points or more per game. He hasn't even been close. And if you remove the injured games, remove the injured games, as I do with Lamar Jackson, he still hasn't even been close. Well, I think if you just look at the games where Lamar Jackson had Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews last year, he was he was better than Joe Burrow was with T. Higgins and Jamar Chase. I think he had four straight games with fewer than 20 fantasy points. He had two massive games. We're not talking about the games when guys didn't have their weapons. Rashad Bateman was doing almost nothing. This whole –

Even I have to push back on that. He was doing almost nothing. He was getting hardly any targets. He was a big play guy every now and then. That was a coincidence. This whole thing about Rashad Bateman, I don't buy it at all. That was a coincidence. I don't think you were an unbiased observer of Lamar Jackson at this point.

I don't think you're an unbiased observer of Lamar Jackson. Every year you tell me how great Lamar Jackson is going to be. He's an extremely inconsistent player, and you refuse to accept it. So I'm not going to let you criticize my take. You are on one side of Lamar Jackson. I have been on the other. I accept that, but we're both biased, I would say, but I just don't think Lamar Jackson, I don't think any quarterback we should expect the upside of the season he had, you know, that I just don't think that is going to happen. You just can't imagine a guy. Rashad Bateman was on pace for 1,281 yards

and 11 touchdowns the first three weeks of last year. Look at his game log. He was like, you know, you can't expect him to keep that up. When you give me your feeling and I give you the facts, I don't know how to respond to that. I'm giving you the facts. 59 yards, 108 yards, 59 yards,

17 yards. He averaged five targets per game, basically. Then he had 42 yards in week seven, and then he got hurt. So, what is he? At best, a 60-yard guy at a 108-yard game. That's great. He had a 17-yard game. DK Metcalf's been a 60-yard guy three of the last four years. This has nothing to do with DK Metcalf.

Nothing to do with it. You're cooling your shot-bateman's impact because he averaged. Yeah. That's just how it is. And the Ravens might have three of them you think i have something against lamar jackson what i have against i think you're not drafting lamar jackson in round three here's the question for you adam it's 47th overall you need a quarterback lamar jackson's on the board so is just Justin Herbert. So is Trevor Lawrence. Are you taking a quarterback? Question one and question two, which one?

No, and Lamar Jack. Wait, what pick is it? 47. Yeah, I'll take Lamar Jackson at 47. Absolutely. I have come around. That's the argument. I've come around on Jackson because I was penalizing him for the new offensive coordinator

because I thought it's going to be hard for him to adjust. It's a completely different system. They tailor-made a system for him. But I think I'm being unfair because I like the new coordinator for Justin Herbert. I like it for even Russell Wilson at a lower level. I should be open-minded. I should be more interested in Lamar Jackson. I did hear some rumblings that Lamar struggled to struggled initially with the offense. Yeah. That's not a surprise,

but it's a long season. I love Monkin, but I did hear that early on that he was struggling a little bit. Yeah. I mean, I hate to be the low guy on Lamar Jackson, but I think, I feel like I've been right the last couple of years because people can't

stand the boom or bust nature of him. And I hope he's a little more consistent. All right. Anyway. I hope he's not. I enjoy the boomer bust nature. It's that last thing that I'll say. And that's probably the biggest difference.

Because I think that the boomer bust players win you weeks. Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Aaron Rodgers. They're all going 104th to 110th. Why are they bust for you, Dave? Because they're just going. It's the same argument as Lamar Jackson. I don't have a real big problem with Cousins. He's steady at around 20 fantasy points per game.

He averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game last year. Feels like he averages that much every year. And then even when TJ Hawkinson came in, he was at 20.6. The argument that you could make for Cousins is that now he's got Jordan Addison instead of Adam Thielen, and that might boost his yardage because Addison is a much better, or figures to be, a much better after-catch receiver than Adam Thielen was in 2022. So I like him. I'm just not drafting him in round nine. Daniel Jones worries me because we're buying into him as a rusher.

Last year was the first year that he had all these rushing yards. What if he only has 500? What if the Giants throw more? What if they hand off to Saquon more? I think there's some variables that we're kind of overlooking when it comes to Daniel Jones. Maybe he doesn't scramble as much as he did last year. And I would take that into some consideration with him. I do think he can be better as a passer than he was last year. I don't have a problem with taking him. Where, where is he among the quarterbacks?

Like what QB is he off the board? Adam, who's that? Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones, Daniel, probably about 15 or 16. Yeah.

I don't have a problem with that. It's the location. I don't like taking him in round nine. Okay. Um, yeah, I don't have a problem with that. It's the location. I don't like taking him in round nine. Okay. I'm sorry. I'm a little bothered by something. Who do you guys think has more upside, Justin Fields or Justin Herbert?

Fields. Fields. Yeah. I think you know where I'm going to go with that. I'm just going to leave it at that. Yep. It's not fair to pick apart everything I say. I can't have

an opinion. Justin Herbert's best year was four points better than Justin Fields' best year. I agree. Justin Fields is more upside than Justin Herbert. What was Justin Fields when he got into the groove last year? That's the offense that I expect to improve upon.

I agree. I'm not even arguing this. My point is you're allowed to, you're allowed to base projections. Of course. It hasn't happened in the past. Listen, man.

And that comes back to one of the core tenets of fantasy drafting draft guys. You love draft guys. You believe in that's really like, it's one of the most simple things you could do. So if you hear us talk about Lamar Jackson, you go, you know what? Heath's right.

He's awesome. I would take them. And you want to reach for Lamar Jackson, man, just do it. It's your team. Have fun with it. This is supposed to be fun. Fantasy is not supposed to be a chore. It's not supposed to make you feel terrible.

It's supposed to be fun. Take the players that you want and be happy. Jonathan Taylor is not someone you're taking 18th overall, Dave. He scares the crap out of me. I want him to get traded. If he doesn't get traded, I don't want him even in round, like maybe the last pick of round two.

Okay, so two, three turn, you're looking for Taylor? Yeah. Yeah, two drafts. I was in a draft Monday where he went with the third pick of round three. And then last night, I think he went with the third to last pick of round two. So that's about a six picks too soon.

Yeah. Uh, if he gets traded to Miami or Kansas city, you know, apparently a lot of teams are interested in him, but they don't want to pay what Indianapolis wants and they don't want to pay him, um,

a crazy deal. But if he gets traded, then everything, he might might be fifth overall. So if you're drafting him, maybe that should be like 10% of what you think about. What if he gets traded? But the Colts have no motivation

to trade him unless somebody comes up with a good offer. All right, Antonio Gibson. He's RB35. So I was a little confused by his ADP. I didn't see him at 88th. I saw him at 99th. I thought you had him at 88th. I saw him at 99th. I thought you had him at 88th.

I saw him at 88th. Where would you take Gibson? He's after 100th overall. Last year in games with Brian Robinson, he was getting 10 PPR points per game. I think that's just what he is. And when we're talking before or after 100th overall, I think I can find enough players that

can hopefully give me a little bit more upside than Gibson, who seems to be passing downs back in an offense with a suspect offensive line. I still think it's a suspect quarterback situation and two really good receivers that will probably see significantly more targets, obviously, than AG. Heath, you like Gibson top 100, right? Yeah. I think a high end number two running back, I prefer him to DeAndre Swift. I think they probably have a pretty similar role. Did you say number two?

Number two? High end number two running back? No. Number three. If I said number two, that was wrong, but I think he's right in that DeAndre Swift range, except he's on a team that's going to throw it significantly more and probably throw it to their running backs a lot more than the Philadelphia Eagles are. And I think there's an underrated chance

that Gibson is actually a better rusher this year than Brian Robinson. So, yeah, I'm not going out and making it intentional about drafting Antonio Gibson, but I'm fine when he falls to me. Alright, let's go to wide receiver. Dave's

wide receiver busts are DK Metcalf, who we talked about earlier, Terry McLaurin at 47th overall, and then Traylon Burks at 93 overall. Go ahead on McLaurin and Burks. I just think it's too soon on McLaurin. I love the talent. I love the guy. He's a great guy, but he's never

been an amazing producer for fantasy other than a handful of games each year. Last year, 13.5 PPR points per game. That was a career high. Just talked about the concerns I have with the offense in general and the quarterbacks also.

And Johan Dotson's there. And Dotson had, like, he was like a playmaker for touchdowns last year, more so than McLaurin was. There's a part of me that thinks that Dotson could overtake McLaurin as the number one guy as far as production in this Washington offense. He went ahead of McLaurin last night, Heath. Yeah, and listen, I've got Dotson ahead of McLaurin. I like Dotson a lot.

I think I have a lot more faith in Eric Bien-Ami than everybody else seems to, which probably makes sense. And I don't really see... I know there was the 2020 season, but I just don't really see that big of I know there was the 2020 season, but I just don't really see that big of difference between Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf other than DK Metcalf just had JSN added to his team. I think McLaurin's been better at least two out of the four seasons

they've been in the NFL and including last year. And they're, they're pretty similar guys on teams. I think throw at a pretty similar rate. Metcalf has a better quarterback, but also more competition for targets than McLaurin has. They're back-to-back in my receiver rankings. And I was taking Metcalf outside of round four. All right, let's talk about Traylon Burks here. Is he just not a top 100 pick for you? Yeah, it's the ADP argument. Another player, I love the talent, don't love the situation.

I feel like Hopkins has to get hurt in order for Traylon Burks to really pop off this year. Great reports out of, out of Nashville on how he's looking in camp. And, uh, you know, he's got the asthma under control and he's in, he's got, he's in much better shape. Uh, I'm just worried about how much they'll throw and how many of those throws will go his way. Yeah, if you don't like Hopkins, if you're someone who doesn't like Hopkins, I'm not talking to Dave specifically. You're not.

Then you should probably look at Traylon Burks. I mean, if you think like, oh, Hopkins is going to get hurt, Burks could be a steal if Hopkins gets hurt, right? And he has been hurt two years in a row. And he could deliver value at this cost, even if Hopkins doesn't get hurt. Where do you have him, Heath? Wide receiver 40 around round eight.

Okay. Yeah, I'm at the end of round nine on Burks. Tight end. Kittle and Waller, but also Goddard and Nijon. All in the same range. Wait, it's just too early for you to take a tight end? Is that it? It's definitely that. In the case of Goddard and all in the same range well it's just too early for you to take a tight end is that it's it's it's definitely that in the case of Goddard I think he's safe if you're looking for

11 PPR points per game I just don't know if he's got the upside to get much more than that I wonder like with Goddard specifically like he was at 11.6 last year with three touchdowns. And he had at least one. No, I guess he had the injury, but he played the full game. So he didn't have that partial game. But if he just does what he did last year on a per game basis and scores touchdowns at a rate that he has for most of his career, he's a top three tight end, right? I think he might be a top three tight end if Brown or Smith miss any time. That's the upside.

Of course. But the year before, he was at 10.6 PPR points per game. Last year was better. You said 11.6. I haven't met 11.8, whatever the difference is. His 17-game pace was for 994 receiving yards. If they throw more and he scores, that's an elite season. That's the thing.

He doesn't score. And why is that? I don't know. It could be fluky, but one thing, he doesn't run a lot of routes. Dallas Goddard does not run a lot of routes inside the 10-yard line. That is not a big part of their routes. Because they run a lot. Yes. So he's ranked low there. He doesn't get a lot of routes inside the 10-yard line. That is not a big part of their routes. He's ranked low

there. He doesn't get a lot of end zone targets. The end zone targets thing, though, I feel like is fluky and could change. That's just been a weird thing. He's been basically the most efficient tight end. He's like George Kittle, as Heath said, but he doesn't get touchdowns. I will say,

his touchdown rate before last year was 5.9%, and it was closer to 4% last year. So he hasn't had a big touchdown season, that's true. But he's scored on a per-target basis at a higher rate in the past than he did last year. That's true. But what does he have in common with Miamisburg, Ohio? I don't know.

45343. That's the zip code for Miamisburg, Ohio. Those are the number of touchdowns that Dallas Goddard's had each of his past five seasons. We learn something new every day. All right, we have to get going here, Dave. Give me a quick thought on David Njoku, 98th overall. You have him as a bust.

So his zip code starts with three, three. No, I just think he's being drafted too high with Elijah Moore there and other peripheral receivers. I wonder if Njoku's targets take a hit with Deshaun Watson. I think it's a different situation from last year. Brissette definitely has a tendency to look at his tight end more. That was one of the reasons why I liked Njoku as a sleeper last year. He came through on that. And he had a couple of good games with Deshaun Watson. But I think that the target volume is going to be a little tougher for Njoku to come by.

Last year, 10.1 PPR points per game. I'm expecting that average to be lower this year. All right. That's it for Fantasy Football today. We've got our breakouts tonight beginning at 7 o'clock Eastern. Just subscribe to the channel, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, and you'll see when they're publishing or when they're recording. They're going to be publishing throughout the day on Thursday.

So we will talk to you then. Have a good one, everybody.