Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Don't Draft Them at Their Current Cost (08/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 17, 2022

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on pre-draft calls with our experts, a spot in our Podcast League, a guest spot on our show and more! https://ebay.to/3p4Dc3Z If a player is labeled a bust, it doesn't mean he will be terrible. It means he won't be worth his average draft position and there are better options at that point in the draft. With that said, we give you some high-profile bust calls including Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel for Jamey (3:25). Then Heath tells you why he thinks Najee Harris is too expensive (15:15) and why Nick Chubb is a bust at his ADP (22:15) ... Jamey and Heath have three mutual busts (25:10)! Adams, Joe Burrow and Dawson Knox. After discussing them, we've got plenty of news items to catch you up on (32:00) as we try to make sense of the Commanders, Rams, Eagles, Bills and 49ers backfields among others ... Back to the busts! Heath's busts (42:15) include Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf and Amari Cooper. Jamey's busts (49:10) include Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell and WRs (59:00) Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown, though St. Brown may be moving off the busts list ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We have got big names on the bust list. Jalen Waddell, Debo Samuel, Joe Burrow. It's basically all based on ADP. It's not like we think these guys are just going to stink, although I think that is an outcome for some of them, a possible outcome for some of them, maybe like a Damian Harris. But we'll get into that in a little bit.

Welcome to our busts episode here on Fantasy Football Today on Wednesday. Adam, Jamie, and Heath here. bit welcome to our busts episode here on fantasy football today on wednesday adam jamie and heath here and what do you guys want to give as a definition for a bust heath you want to get in there what's a what's a bust a player being drafted as a starter at their position who is going to be worse than where they're being drafted. How much worse? I have not, this is kind of like, I've been trying to define upside ever since you infuriated me last night. And then Twitter validated your opinion. On what?

On what? That Trey Lance definitely has more upside than Dak Prescott. Definitely. Yeah. Yeah. Cause Dak Prescott doesn't have the same upside he used to. He's already had too many top six seasons. Anyway, so yeah, like how much worse,

it varies depending on what round they're taken in. In the first round, it might be they're only 80% as good as what they're being drafted to be, and that's a bust because you used your first round pick on them. In the sixth round, it might be you can only 80% as good as what they're being drafted to be, and that's a bust because you used a first-round pick on them. In the sixth round, it might be you can't start this person. Jamie, how about you? Give me your definition of a bust. I think he's got it there with the round definition.

It's someone that you're drafting with expectations to do something, and they completely let you down. So you're drafting a first-round pick, first round pick top 10 player and they play like a third round player, you're drafting a fourth round player and he plays like somebody you can't start, you know, those,

those type of qualifications that's taking injury out of the equation too. Because one player who's on, I want to say Jamie's bus list is Debo Samuel, right? Yes. So his ADP, I'm going to use three different average draft positions today. I'm going to use Fantasy Pros.

I'm going to use NFC over the last week. And I'm going to use CBS. Debo Samuel's ADP is 18th or 17th on all three sites. He's actually wide receiver four, though, on CBS, which is higher than on the other sites. And we did a draft a few weeks ago, and I passed him up in round two because I share the same concerns. I think we all share some concerns about Debo. I don't know. I don't want to speak for everyone, but then I got him in round three and I was so excited. I thought to myself, do I really think he's a bust if I love getting him in round three, but not in round two?

And maybe I felt as if I really liked my first two picks, solidified somewhat of a foundation of my team, and then I took Debo, who I believe is a little bit risky, but I still recognize his huge upside. I mean, can someone really be a bust just if I like him a round later, Jamie? In some cases, it's maybe like six to seven picks later.

You know, it's not necessarily just a full round later. For me, the two guys that fall into this category would be Debo and Devante Adams and it's it's it's the cost you're paying for them versus the other players you might get right and so the player that you got in round two like you said you like your first two players uh so you obviously like a few guys better than Debo Samuel certainly one in particular uh so I think it's just a matter of you know when you're taking like I think Devante and Debo are

still going to be very good I just don't want to put debo and devante because depending on the sites you look at uh top five good i think they're both top six receivers uh across the board for the most part um i just don't want to pay that cost for for both of them and so it's just for me it's it's it's semantics um you know just with a couple of spots so like you said you know where i have debo rank you know he's basically uh at the turn for me and Adams is you know um PPR a high-end round two pick but still a round two pick it's it's in that case for both of them it's it's like a seven pick difference and a five pick difference but I just don't think Devante is a first round pick and I don't think Debo is a mid-second round pick

and I think both of those guys like a lot of times when I'm writing the bust case, it's the bust risk for a player. And both Debo and Devante have risk to be even worse than where I have them ranked. Right. Okay. And you're going to be passing up

some great players for them. So that's, Jamie did hit on that part of it. It's also about who you're, who you're sacrificing to draft those two. All right. So let's start with two big busts. Jamie, give me two,

even if we just talked about it, whoever you want, two big busts. Yeah. I mean, Adams and Samuel are probably the two headliners for me. You know, I,

I think Adams, it feels like he's just being drafted as if everything's going to be the same. You know, there's going to be a top three wide receiver again, top two. I know that's not where he's getting drafted, but in some cases, I think the ADP at some point, it might have been NFC or Fantasy Pros was on our site, but he was in the top three receivers ahead of Jamar Chase. And so I think if you've heard me say this ad nauseum, if you've been watching us this entire off season, the target difference between in Green Bay, between him as the number one guy and the

number two guy was glaring. You know, I mean, it was in some cases, a couple of years, like, you know, 60 target difference between him and Aaron Jones, who was the second guy there. That's not going to be the case with the Raiders. He's not going to have that much separation barring injury between himself and Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro. And again, factoring both those guys and what they should mean to their offense, plus the running backs and the run game. And so he's still going to be very good. He's still going to be a top 10 wide receiver again, unless he completely falls off, which I can't imagine happening, but it's a quarterback downgrade. It's a distribution

change in targets that's going to change. And he's had two seasons in his amazing stretch, seven-year stretch of being this fantastic fantasy star, or eight-year stretch, where he's been still a top 10 receiver. And I think that's what we're looking at. We're looking at a sub-20 PPR point season, which will still be very good. I think it'll be closer to about 17 points per game, 18 points per game. And that puts them closer to 10 than it does to two. So that's Devante Adams. And he's again, just the, the,

the risk of losing touches in the backfield, because I think that's going to happen. You know, you can cut in half essentially if everybody's healthy. Now he does get a boost if Elijah Mitchell's not there. Cause that's kind of what spurred this on last season was when Mitchell got hurt and they needed help in the backfield, but they bring in Davis price. They trust sermon seemingly a little bit more.

They have Jeff Wilson back. Trey Lance is obviously going to move much more than Jimmy Garoppolo did. And you saw at the end of the season, whether it was a by-product of him just spending more time in the backfield or Brandon, are you getting out of the doghouse? I, you got targeted him down the stretch.

And so with everything that I, you has done this off season and training camp, he's going to be more of a factor for the quarterback. And Kittle, hopefully healthy, not necessarily as a detractor to Debo just across the board. But I just think that we're going to see Debo's numbers come down a little bit. Still be very good. Still be excellent as a fantasy option. I'm not saying you run away from him. I'm just not taking him in round two. Yeah, the last seven games of the season, Debo Samuel had 23 catches, 426 yards, one touchdown, 35 targets. Iuke outperformed him in every category.

He had 31 catches to 23 for Debo. Iuke had 515 yards compared to 426 for Debo. Iuke had two more touchdowns and eight more targets. That was the last seven games of the season. And we've talked about the first nine games of the season. Deebo Samuel was just incredible. He was on pace for 1,849 yards and almost 10 targets per game, about nine and a half targets per game.

Well, Kittle missed some of those games. Ayuk was in the doghouse. So it was just a perfect opportunity. And, of course, you have the quarterback situation with Trey Lance. So let me ask you guys first about Devontae Adams, because that is a mutual bust. You both put them on your bus list. And again,

it is always, we are not crapping on these players. We're not saying they stink. It is always about cost here. Devontae Adams is not a first round pick for you guys. He is a second round pick. When you talk about Devontae Adams versus, let's say the Alvin Kamara,

Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift group, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, maybe. Heath, where does Devontae Adams fit in with that group of five running backs? I'm pretty sure I've got him behind every one of them. He is one pick ahead of Saquon, who is one pick ahead of Swift. I've is one pick ahead of swift i've got it adams at 19 barkley at 20 swift at 21 that means jones and camara ahead of davante adams jones and yeah jones i have in the first round and stefan digs ahead of adams right yes cd lamb yes and jamie you're agreeing with all this 100 um i think i have barkley ahead of adams also but that would come down to how you start your first round so if you go you know mix and cook and cd goes ahead of adams which i think he should and you don't want to go running back

running back adams pairing him with one of those two guys is perfectly fine for me. And I would say also, as for the two busts, I would take Debo over Adams in non-PPR. Do you think Debo Samuel belongs on the bust list, Heath? I think he is one of those guys who fits really well if you're crafting a bust candidates list. I'm uncomfortable with saying he's definitely going to be a bust just because what he did last year was so outlandish.

But I do think he's a superstar talent, and he's got Kyle Shanahan. So I hate to not have any of him, but as far as bust candidates go, as far as regression candidates go, he's at the top of the list. Thomas, leave this up here for a second because I think it's worth noting. This is not including his rushing numbers when you see his projections here. If this is just his receiving totals, he's going to be in trouble. And his receiving projections, 112 targets is pretty low. But if they could just throw a lot less with Lance,

73 catches, 1,263 yards, five touchdowns. This is almost exactly what I have him projecting. Really? I have five more targets, one fewer catch, 150 fewer yards and the same number of touchdowns.

Wow. But I've got him projected for 50 carries for 350 yards and five touchdowns. No, that would help. I can't see 50 carries if their backfield is healthy. Man, he had almost no involvement in the running game the first half of the season,

and then he was the man. But he was also, let me just get this stat because it's incredible. He had, Debo Samuel had more rushing touchdowns, please find this stat, of 20 plus yards than I think Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott had carries of 20 plus yards. Oh, yeah, all right. He had three touchdown runs of 20 to 27 yards. Derek Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Eckler had only three carries all season of 20 or more yards, and they had at least 200 carries. And Debo had three touchdown runs of 20 to 27 yards.

He was amazing. Unbelievable. So he had 59 carries in 16 games last year. What would you guys put as like a 17-game projection for Devo Samuel carries? I think he's going to be sub-35, so I would say 34. I was going to say 35. I just don't know.

It's also like 30. The other thing is he had 27 carries in three playoff games. Yeah. He ever nine carries a game in the playoffs. Yeah. It was the second half of the season, too.

He was probably averaging about that for basically the last half of the season. So I just don't know if they go back to that or not. It's a big mystery. It will probably determine

his fantasy value. He's probably. Yeah. He's give me two big bus after I promote a couple things here. The Draftathon, August 31st from 6 p.m. Eastern until midnight. We're going to be joined by the best industry analysts. We're going to be raising money for St. Jude, which you can do right now on YouTube, by the way, if you click that donate button. And also, if you scan that QR code,

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Please, everybody, please be part of this. And join us for the Draft-a-thon two weeks from today, two Wednesdays, 6 p.m. Eastern time until midnight. First two hours are on HQ. The last four are here on YouTube. The Podcast League. Remember the Podcast League? I am sorry.

It has been way too... I have not mentioned the Podcast League. Here's the first mention of it. The Fantasy Football Today 14 team PPR podcast league. It's got to be 10, 12 years old by now. We are drafting August 29th

at 8 p.m. Eastern. If you can make that time, you can submit to join the podcast league. If you cannot make that time, 8 p.m. Eastern on August 29th, which is a monday please do not uh you know send it to submission you can email a proxy find somebody to do it for you fine uh you can email fantasy football at cbsi the letter i.com you have to have to have to put

podcast league in the subject line fantasy football at cbs, have to put Podcast League in the subject line. Fantasyfootball at CBSI.com put Podcast League in the subject line. I thought Jimmy already filled it. Probably. Give us something creative. There's like four spots left. There aren't that many spots. I think there are about seven. Something creative,

something heartfelt, whatever you want to do, just email us a submission to get into the podcast league we love creativity but that won't be all of the uh entries well not all the selections will be something creative i i i know i also said and i'm gonna do it next week uh about the hq league we're gonna do as well the fft hq league and about the secret word i'll start doing that next week so that that league is wide open. We have no spots filled.

I'll fill them. I'll just give them to a bunch of people on Twitter. That's fine. I'll tell you no. You don't tell me no. So we actually have some big news today that we have to get to. Aaron Rodgers calling out the young wide receivers.

Cam Akers news. Miles Sanders news. Antonio Gibson news. Zach Moss. Ramondre Stevenson, Chris Godwin and Michael Thomas making progress. That's great stuff. So we'll fill you in on all of that. Let's go a little faster or Heath. Give me two big busts. Uh, Jamie gave the wide receivers. I will give the running backs. Najee Harris being drafted basically as a top seven, eight pick on most

sites. I believe a top five or six running back. He was running back nine or eight per game, depending on your scoring system last year. And he led all running backs and catches. I am very concerned that the vault pass volume, it goes down. It would, I would project it to go down a little bit. Even if Ben Roethlisberger was still the quarterback. They threw 654 passes last year. League median was around 593. So there'd be a little bit of regression there. But I think with Trubisky and or Pickett starting, it could be 50 fewer passes. And I'm concerned that with a more mobile quarterback, a lower percentage of those passes

go to the running back. The problem is that Harris wasn't really particularly good in any way other than receptions last year. The efficiency wasn't that great. The touchdowns weren't that great. So he has to be better than he was just to justify his current ADP. I think he might be worse than he was. He wasn't good inside the five-yard line either.

Ten carries, two yards, which it's hard to have a good yards per carry inside the five-yard line, but 4 touchdowns. He did have a bad offensive line. He only scored 7 touchdowns. All right, so Najee Harris is your pick. He is currently RB5 on Fantasy Pros, RB4

on NFC over the last week, and RB6 on CBS, and he is going between 7th and 9th on all three sites. I did a little bit of math, and I want you to let me know what you think about this. He had 74 catches last year. If that went down to 50 catches,

and he averaged the same yards per catch, which I would hope he could do better than 6.3 yards per catch, if he had the same amount of carries to make up for those yards that he'd lose with 24 fewer catches, he'd have to go from 3.9 yards per carry last year to 4.4 yards per carry this year. I feel like that's doable. So even if the catches went down, that's a pretty big drop, too, from 74 to 50. That type of change is doable, and I think 4.4 is definitely within Najee Harris' range of outcomes in a given year. I would like for something to give me a reason to think that it was going to

improve like that. The offensive line should be better, but I don't think like the offensive line is still probably one of the five worst in the NFL. The only, the thing would be pedigree and you know, recent history. You look at Christian McCaffrey,

you look at Le'Veon Bell, a number of guys who had a terrible yards per carry as rookies and then really, really good as second-year guys. I think the thing that you look for, first off, is the offense just going to be better because of the difference in quarterback? And this is where the mind versus skill. Roethlisberger was still very successful

because he was able to read defenses and sort of manipulate things where he was lacking physically. Trubisky is probably not going to be at the same level. And obviously it should be a little bit better physically. We know mobile quarterbacks tend to open things up in the run game if they're doing things the right way. So hopefully whether Trubisky or Pickett, both of them can move,

can maybe open up some running lanes for Najee Harris. I think also they're probably not going to be as predictable because you know what certain situations they were going to do because Ben just didn't have the ability to do certain things. And so, you know, maybe they're a little bit more creative now. At least that's the hope. Their weapons should be better. They didn't have Juju for the majority of the season.

Pickens is clearly an upgrade over nobody being there and whoever they were trotting out as their third receiver. Fryer moves should be better. Deontayson chase claypool you know you know what you're getting there so i think naji is still a good first round pick uh i mean i'm a little nervous which is why you know like last night's draft i took dalvin cook ahead of him in ppr in non or half ppr i would also take mixing ahead of him um you know i still think he's going to be successful uh but the receptions is the biggest thing that's going to i think sway how he does because I do think he'll be a better runner but will he still be as involved in the passing game if that takes a dive then you really have to worry about you know I think uh another

comp on the other side of this Adam is sort of Saquon Barkley you know he was hugely involved in the passing game as a rookie and then those numbers have continued to decline because they got a more mobile quarterback you know went from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones, and we saw, take the injuries out of the equation, but we saw the passing game work decline even in year two before Barkley got hurt. Well, we saw, to be honest, we saw it decline in year one.

First half of year one, he was, Matt Forte, he was on pace for, I don't know, Saquon Barkley, 115 catches or something. Then they had their bye week, and then he was still very involved in the passing game, but not as involved. We didn't see that with Najee, really. And I think, like, Naeem Hines,

he's not Najee Harris, obviously, but we saw him, 60 catches with Luck, falls off the table with Brissette. 60 catches with Rivers, falls off the table with Wentz. Now Ryan's there, and so we think he's probably going to catch 60 passes again. Yeah.

Well, but to your point, though, Naheem Hines isn't always on the field. Najee's always going to be on the field. I just have, I think the, I don't know, tell me if you feel like the bus, he's so safe because he's going to have so many touches. And when you look at the guys who have finished the season with as many touches per game as he has,

they pretty much always finish as top 10 running backs per game. It's just who are you passing up, right? That's part of it. You may not think, Heath, that he has league winning potential. And there are a lot of guys that do in that range. So is that the best case really for Najee is that he just he doesn't have the upside? I don't really think we should very often use this kind of goes back to the mcafree over taylor thing for me at this position specifically saying someone is safe

seems like a real red flag non-injury safe right but that's what i'm saying like that's a big part of the thing for running backs that's a that's a reason why maybe we don't take two running backs at the start of the draft or why zero RB became a thing. Who's safe? Okay, but if you took injury out, who's safer than Najee Harris at running back? Taylor. Nobody can get injured this year.

Yeah. McCaffrey, Taylor, Eckler, Derrick Henry. I think Delvin Cook, if he can't get hurt okay but he's right up there um he's probably in the group next with mixon and aaron jones and alvin camara don't you think he has a safer profile than aaron jones i do not if you're guaranteeing me 17 games from both. Okay. All right, I'm sorry.

I'm bogging you down a little bit. Who's the second? The other thing, though, just real quick, is age. We've said this time and again. You know, 27 or older, they don't necessarily finish as a top five guy. He's younger than that. You know, so comparing him to some of the guys in front of him,

you might look at if he does hit with the same reception total and his running is better and the offense is better, he could be the number one running back in fantasy. And then the other big running back is Nick Chubb. He's my number 16 running back in full PPR. He's a top 12 guy in non-PPR, but in full PPR, I don't think the catches will be there. I think the touchdowns and the efficiency are going to take a hit because

Jacoby preset is worse than what he's dealt with at quarterback in the past. And he's going to be sharing with cream on Chubb is going as RB nine on fantasy pros and CBS and RB 14 in NFC over the past week so nfc is about right the other two i think he's a bust and our adp just for full disclosure combines all of our scoring systems which is probably more full ppr than anything right i would think it's it's a combination of half and full over non. But still those non-PPR leagues are keeping him afloat from an ADP standpoint.

Would you take Nick Chubb or Javante Williams? I still take Chubb in both formats. I would take Javante in full PPR or Chubb in the other two. Would you take guys like Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Brees Hall, Travis Etienne, James Conner, any of them over Nick Chubb, and the other two. Would you take guys like Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Brees Hall, Travis Etienne, James Conner, any

of them over Nick Chubb? No. I would take Montgomery and full PPR. I would take a break right now. We will be right back. We've got more busts, a lot more to talk about, including Joe Burrow.

ADP is too high. Dawson Knox, Jalen Waddle, Amari Cooper, Damian Harris, and many more. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Okay, I do, as mentioned, have to get to the news because it's big stuff today that could really impact your drafts. I just want to talk about the mutual busts, three players that showed up on the bust list for both Jamie and Heath. And one of them was Devante Adams. We already talked about him. The other two are Joe Burrow and Dawson Knox.

Joe Burrow, Jamie, we can't really call him a bust based on the CBS ADP. He's QB 11. On Fantasy Pros, he's QB 6. Over the past week on NFC, he's QB 5. So that's Joe Burrow. Where would you be cool with Joe Burrow going? QB11. I think he's appropriately priced on our site.

And that's saying something because he's still ahead of Russell Wilson. So I would take Wilson ahead of him. But he's behind Aaron Rodgers and he's behind Matthew Stafford. And I think he should be ahead of those guys. But look, Burrow, I think you want to use the word safe at quarterback. He kind of feels safe. I don't think he should be ahead of those guys but look burrow i i think you know you want to use the word safe at quarterback he kind of feels safe you know i think he's going to kill you i think he's going to give you some big weeks we certainly saw that last year but he's not going to run to the level of somebody like trey lance who i ranked ahead of burrow he's not going to i

think have the type of passing production and you know you know, this, the, the yardage is encouraging here, but I think he needs to be closer to 40 to be justified as a top six quarterback, 40 touchdowns, not going to cut it. Yeah. Um, which is a projection on our site.

Do me a favor. When you, when you talk about the projection, just say, yeah, uh, he's projected for 4,500 passing yards, 30 touchdowns,

and then 151 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. But we haven't ranked projection wise as the 13th quarterback and i think that's too low but i i think he's closer to that range you know i think he's closer to the group of stafford cousins car rogers however you want to rank them then he is closer to lamar jackson kyler murray tom brady and jalen hertz you know which is the the group in that 4-7 range. So I'm out on Burrow if you have to pay that cost. We don't typically see that. So maybe it's just our listeners and our users

are listening to us and seeing our rankings and our projections. But if you're drafting him that high, you are expecting him to have the ceiling that he had in those monster blowout games last year, and I just think that's a mistake. Heath, your mic is muted. Were you drinking? feeling that he had in those monster blowout games last year. And I just think that's a mistake. Oh, Heath,

your mic is muted. Were you drinking? Were you drinking? Were you drinking from your loud water bottle? Even on our site, he's three rounds ahead of Kirk cousins and Trey Lance. So like, even on our side,

he's being drafted earlier than I would want to draft him. It's just all the quarterbacks are. Okay. I find that projection to be interesting. Thomas, you throw it up one more time because he's projected for 4,500 passing yards, Joe Burrow, in 17 games. He threw for 4,600 yards in 16 games last year.

Heath, does that make sense to you? Well, it's something that I've talked about. I've got him at 4,700 yards in 17 games, but it's something I've talked about. He averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempts last year, led the league. I very rarely project anybody higher than eight yards per pass attempt, so he probably needs 50 extra attempts just to match last year's total. Now, I think he probably throws 50 more times, maybe even a few more. I've got him right at league average at 594

for pass attempts over 17 games, but he does need a big increase in volume just to match what he did last year. And what he did last year was a low-end starting quarterback. All right. Dawson Knox is tight end 10 in Fantasy Pro's ADP. Dawson Knox is tight end 10 in NFC ADP over the last week. And Dawson Knox is tight end 10 in CBS ADP. So why, Heath, is that so bad if drafters everywhere

are taking Dawson Knox's tight end 10? Well, first off, it's because he scored a touchdown on 18% of his receptions last year and it's completely unsustainable, but it would be okay if he were able to get more volume. The problem is, and I've tweeted about this a lot over the last couple of days, we've got

Stefan Diggs, who we all think is going to get 160 targets, and Gabriel Davis is going to be the breakout wide receiver too. And as Isaiah McKenzie's turned into everybody's favorite sleeper and the Bills clearly want to throw to their running backs more than they did last year, it's hard for me to see how Dawson Knox sees an increase in target volume with all those other things being true. My only issue with calling him a bus at tight end 10 is, is what is tight end 10? If you look at the landscape of tight end,

there's a top two and then there's a three, four, five, and then there's a six, seven, eight. And that's six, seven,

eight is Schultz is Goddardultz, Hawkinson in some order. And then there's number 9 for all of you. For Dave, Jamie, and Heath, it's all Zach Ertz. So there's basically a top 9. Couldn't you just say tight end 10 could be

anyone from a big list? But where's he being drafted? What round? Good question. On CBS,'s he being drafted? What round? Good question. On CBS, he is being drafted 97th overall. So that is round 89. Give me a moment here. Sorry.

Like, I would be okay with the argument that we don't know who tight end 10 is, take whoever you want, if we all agreed that we were taking that player at pick 120 or later. So on NFC, he's 117, 116. is take whoever you want. If we all agreed that we were taking that player at pick 120 or later. So on NFC, he's 117, 116. But on Fantasy Pros and CBS, he's right at the 8-9 turn.

So that's the problem. Okay. But you guys don't have him 10th anyway. No. I think the thing with... Commit 10th. With this scenario is... First, it's format dependent because non-PPR, he certainly gets a boost because you're somewhat chasing touchdowns once you get past the guys that are going to be much more involved in their offenses.

The thing that I have a problem with Dawson Knox is if you like this type of player and you're not expecting a huge leap in his targets, receptions, and receiving yards, but you are looking at his touchdowns. You can get Hunter Henry, who might be the same type of player. You can certainly get Robert Tunyon. If he's healthy, who proved to be two years ago, the same exact player. So there are discounted versions of this. They don't have the same,

maybe upside if we do see a target increase, but I agree with Heath. I don't know where the target increase comes from. If McKzie and davis and james cook do what we're kind of hoping they're going to do in their respective roles you know so knox may lead tight ends and touchdowns he was right there last year he could have a a double digit touchdown season would not shock me but is he going to do it on 500 yards or is he going to do it on 700 yards you know and that i think will sway if he's tight end 10 through 13 14 15 or is he 15 plus you know and that's what you're you know kind of risking do some news and notes here we'll come back and

talk about more busts like jalen waddle um elijah mitchell damian har Harris, DK Metcalf those guys coming up later so here's what we'll do I broke it down by position here Jamie I'm going to give you the quarterbacks you give me a quick reaction to each news item here quarterback news Zach Wilson had knee surgery

it was not the major surgery he's not expected to be ready for week one they do have a fairly tough schedule with AFC North opponents all to start the season. But what do you think Jets quarterback situation, Jets passing game situation? I think we'll see Joe Flacco in week one because

Zach Wilson will not be rushed back. I hope Zach Wilson takes a big step forward, but I'm very, very nervous for the trio of Jets pass catchers and somewhat for Breece Hall too, you know, just that this offense will not be to the level that we hope it is because Wilson will hold them back. With this injury news for Wilson,

is anybody downgrading Elijah Moore? I haven't changed anything. No. Okay. Aaron Rogers called out the young wide receivers. Jamie, is this just good news for Alan Lazard? I think it's great news for Alan Lazard.

I think it's worth, and I'm glad, I think it was Robert Thomas, our Facebook moderator, who took a shot on Sammy Watkins in our draft last night. He's a good 15th, 14th, however deep your draft goes. Just take a shot on it, see what happens. He had a big play in the inter-squad practices with the Saints yesterday. And Randall Cobb, probably the same thing. But just a little bit of caution on maybe Romeo Dubs and Christian Watson.

And probably this deserves more explanation. Aaron Rodgers didn't just call out the young wide receivers. He was very frank. These guys need to know where they're going to be. Romeo Dbs is dropping too many passes, basically, including what Roger said was his best throw of the day.

He said the guys who are going to play are the guys that he trusts and the guys the coaching staff trusts. It's very important. Drew Locke is going to miss this week's preseason game. He said Lazard wide receiver one, premier slot receiver in the NFL, Randall Cobb.

And then he said, Sammy Watkins. Drew Locke's going to miss. Oh, sorry. What'd you say? Then we'll figure the rest out later, right? Yes. Okay, so it looks like

Geno Smith still has the leg up there as Drew Locke is going to miss this week's game. He's going to start and Drew Locke has COVID. Geno will be the starter week one.

Okay, Kenny Pickett moving up the depth chart still behind trubisky and giants backup quarterback tarod taylor's going to get some first team reps i don't know if this is a story or not but brian dable said he's going to get some first team reps but that daniel jones still a guy but it's been a bad bad camp it seems for for daniel jones he's got the tough position one more qb note that was just funny i know you want to move on i apologize but um the ravens in their cuts yesterday released brett huntley and somebody i don't want to call out the reporter thought it was tyler huntley and people are like what are they doing

whoops i saw one of my dynasty league somebody Somebody went and picked up Tyler Huntley thinking, okay, maybe he gets scooped up by a team. No, he's still on the Ravens. He's still the backup. And I really don't think Daniel Jones is probably at risk of getting benched. I mean, Brian Dable knows how important it is to have an elite quarterback. I don't think he's going to mess up their chances at a top three pick by starting Tronte.

Completely agree. Okay, running back news. Cam Akers' injury does not seem serious according to espn's jeremy fowler we're waiting for a little more information on daryl henderson's injury heath we got miles sanders with a hamstring injury he has missed nine games over the last two seasons yeah i mean lucky for him sound like kenny gainwell had a rough day at practice yesterday so maybe gainwell won't completely take the job before he gets back but this is not good it doesn't um Sanders is right around RB 30 in my range and if somebody else could do something like I could see an argument

for moving Penny out of them if we get confirmation that Ken Walker is having hernia surgery I guess I can combine all these things into one right so I'll let you both in on this right Miles Sanders has the hamstring injury, which certainly doesn't mean he's going to miss any games. But he's, I want to say this is three years in a row or three out of four where he's had a preseason injury.

Antonio Gibson was playing with the third team and on the punt team, according to the Washington Post. Zach Moss has only strengthened his case to be active on game day, according to The Athletic. Ken Walker has the hernia,

and Rashad Penny did return to practice. He has the hernia. He has the hernia. And Bill Belichick complimented Ramondre Stevenson, saying he's improved his pass game skills. I thought that was Pete Carroll with what the comment was. I know. It's very gold.

So we've got Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, I'll say Devin Singletary with that Zach Moss news. Sanders, Gibson, Singletary, Seahawks running back, Ramondre Stevenson. Who are your top three in that group, Heath?

Gibson, Sanders, Penny. Jamie? Sanders, Penny. Jamie. Sanders, Gibson, Ramondre. At wide receiver, Chris Godwin is doing more in practice, and Heath drafted him in round three yesterday in a 12-team three-receiver PPR league, right? Was it round three?

It was. It was like three picks before Michael Thomas went. And Michael Thomas will be ready for week one. So you now have Godwin ahead of Michael Thomas? I have always and forever had Godwin ahead of Mike Thomas. Jamie, how about you? I did the same after this news yesterday, yeah, especially with Mike Evans

still being out with the hamstring injury. So I actually moved Godwin ahead of Evans in PPR and ahead of Thomas as well. Pittsburgh wide receiver Anthony Miller out for the season. Other news, Malcolm Butler for the Patriots who look like a backup defensive back, but Patriots hero.

He's out for the season with a hip injury. Charger safety Derwin James, a star safety, is still holding in. So he wants a new contract. He's at camp but not practicing. And rookie left tackle, rookie offensive tackle, Iki Ikuonu is going to start at left tackle for the panthers last i had read he had been having a pretty rough camp

so that is something to keep in mind they might be weak they're going to be much better on the offensive line but maybe not at left tackle heath i have a fitness question for you run how much a day would you say uh well this morning very very little because I took Lucas to the courts at 6 a.m. before school, but yesterday I ran 2.6 miles. Yeah, I did a little running yesterday. Are you proud of me? Well, I'm going to wait until I get more details to decide whether I'm proud of you. Yes, I did a little running yesterday, but I want to know if it counts because I was chasing down an ice cream truck. Chasing? How many blocks did you have to chase it for? I wouldn't say blocks. I would say houses. And it was, we have townhouses. They're

all connected and pretty small. It was about five townhouses. No, no, I'm not proud of you. And then I ate ice cream and had a milkshake. Were you breathing hard? I was not because I wasn't really running that hard. Okay. Or I would have been. So paint the picture. So the truck went past your house. You heard the music. Yeah, which never, ever happens.

We never have ice cream trucks in our little neighborhood. So it came by and- Were you outside already? No, I was inside. You were inside and heard the truck. Yeah, but you could, I mean, again, it's townhouse. It was right outside the house, basically. And it just never happens. And I said, wow, they've never, my kids have never had an ice cream truck come to the house.

Back up, back up. You heard the music, though? Yeah, I heard the music. You heard the music. So did you grab your kids and run outside or did you run outside first? Was it like a stanza with the fire? I said, who wants ice cream? Let's go downstairs.

And then we went downstairs and the truck was leaving. So I had to leave. I had to keep them inside with my wife and I had to go run and chase down the truck. And then it drove to my house. So you didn't even give them the pleasure of chasing down the truck. No, they didn't have their shoes on. You can run outside without shoes. Kids have done it for thousands of years. Not my kids. Not my kids. Maybe. So was this before or after you screamed at your family?

I didn't scream. Oh, during. It was the whole day. My kids. Not my family. Just the kids. They were bad yesterday. It was probably all that ice cream now that I think of it.

All right, let's talk about more busts here. I got a question because this happened to my two older kids today, and they're 10 and 7. Because you both have brothers. I don't. Adam, I know you're there. Heath, you're the younger or older brother? Older. Older brother. Okay, so you both have different perspectives on this.

So the 7-year-old, the 10-year-old is just looking out the window, minding his business. The 7-year-old always is picking on the 10-year-old or bothering the 10-year-old. I say picking on. And was just like saying his name, minding his business. The seven year old always is picking on the 10 year old or bothering the 10 year old. I say picking up, um, and was just like saying his name over and over and over again. And then started saying his name wrong. And finally the 10 year old just turned around and punched him in the stomach.

He just had an, and I was like, I can't help you. Like, there's nothing I can say at this point. Like you, you were asking for it. Wow.

You just allowed that. You just, you were fine with that. After the constant, like it was like two minutes of, eh, eh. He was annoying me too.

You didn't, but no, okay, nevermind. So how would your parents have handled that? If that was the case? Keith, go ahead.

Keith, you punching your younger brother and Adam, you getting punched, which I'm sure probably happened a lot. No, my brother's 10 years older than me. So if he had punched me in the stomach, it would have been a big issue. Man, I cannot remember any instances of my parents yelling at us. We were really good kids.

I don't know. Me and my sister. Wow, perfect child. No, we just didn't hit each other. We probably hit each other a little. I don't job. No, we just didn't hit each other. We probably hit each other a little. I don't remember. Well, 10 years difference is a lot different. We were five years difference, and it was a totally different dynamic.

When we were little, my brother was just a terror, and I was pretty close to perfect until I hit puberty and then awful um so it was that that i think what probably would have happened was my dad would have said would have punished me and told my brother you got what you deserved like we both would have been unhappy with the situation yeah i couldn't i couldn't punish him in that moment yeah but like i get where he was coming from well what, you can't let a punch go. That's just okay? Well, it's too late now. It's too late now, yeah. Okay. Interesting.

So let's talk about busts here. Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback bust for Heath. He is QB 11 on Fantasy Pros, QB 14 on NFC in the past week, and QB 10 on CBS Heath. When should Aaron Rogers be drafted? Uh, 14 is right. I would not call him a bust on NFC.

Um, and like I wrote about this yesterday, like Aaron Rogers would probably find it hilarious that we're, I'm calling him a bust for like the fourth time in six years. And he was been MVP each of the past two seasons. So I get it, but I just don't, I don't buy into the idea that he can be the same guy with this receiving core. Like I kind of, when, when Watson was drafted,

I remained a little bit more open to it because I thought, well, he has the upside. If everything goes perfectly, then Rogers could have a number one wide receiver. Um, but I don't like a, we had the discussion about Alan Lazard in round six last night. And I just don't believe that Lazard can make that type of leap. And even so like the confident people or hopeful people in Lazard are taking him in round six as Aaron Rogers, number one wide receiver. So I'm just really worried about the weapons. I think they can be independent of each other, though. Like, Lazard could have clearly a career season

and be a serviceable borderline number two receiver. But you're still asking Aaron Rodgers to do so much with what's left. And he could still struggle. You know, I mean, mean clearly no one is expecting alan lazar to be davante adams if you are you're crazy but you're asking lazar to be significantly better sammy watkins to stay healthy randall cobb to turn back the clock or these two rookies which have so much promise uh in romeo dubs and christian watson plus the return of robert tunyon it's just not a very exciting group and as the n NFL has told us this offseason,

for basically everybody but the Packers, you need wide receivers to have success based on how they've been paid and the compensation to have been given up for these guys. And so he is amazing. This is, again, this isn't a talent thing. This is just more of a byproduct of what I think most of us expect this

offense to be. It's going to be a more run centric offense, maybe than we've seen the last couple of years. He's going to have to have a significant amount of touchdowns once again, which is hard to come by when you start to say, okay, can this guy get to this? Can that guy get to that? And so it just feels like with the other quarterbacks,

when everybody for the most part is trending up he is unfortunately i think trending down just from a production standpoint they may have the best record in the nfc again i wouldn't be surprised you know the defense is amazing the offensive line is going to be good and he's fantastic but i just don't see him being as successful as a stat producer because of the lack of weapons that he has i mean it's not just you just, you know, they didn't just take away Adams. They took away Valdez-Gantling, who changes what defenses do against them. You know, I don't know if they have

that type of field stretcher right now. Does it matter to you guys that in the last three seasons, he's played six games without Adams? Actually, it was just 2019 and 2020, basically. Played six games without Adams. He had one game with nine points, six points for passing touchdown. He had one game with nine points, six points for passing touchdown.

He had one game with 22, which is fine. These other four games were 54, 33, 31, and 38 fantasy points. So he absolutely has crushed it without Devontae Adams in recent seasons. Does that matter? It's only six games, but does that matter at all? I mean, yeah, it's a credit to's a, it's a, you know, credit to him. And like last night's draft, for example,

I did it just because I haven't drafted Rogers at all. And so my two choices were Rogers and car and they're back to back for me, where I'd actually have car one spot ahead. And so I was like, I'm just going to take Aaron Rogers just so at least I could draft them and, and not feel bad about not drafting. But and in case case i'm wrong once again i'm like he keep calling a bust year after year um but i just don't see how that's possible it just doesn't feel like you know i think if if he's a top 10 quarterback again i think lazard and tunyon are going to have to probably combine for 20 touchdowns. Is it possible? Sure.

I mean, Tonya had what, 10, two years ago? Mm-hmm. I think, yeah, I don't know. But yeah, I get your point. Okay, Heath, couple wide receivers on your bus list, DK Metcalf and Amari Cooper. And I don't have the ADPs offhand here, but let's say, well, who do you like better,

Metcalf or Cooper, and when do you think they should be going Metcalf is 48th over the past week at NFC he is not wide receiver 48 48th overall he's 45th overall on NFC and CBS I'll tell you in a moment but what give me Metcalf or Cooper and why are they both busts so I like Metcalf a lot more than I like Cooper. I would take Metcalf early in round six. I've got him at 63. Cooper is not a top 40 wide receiver for me and is in round nine. Cooper could get a little boost if somehow there was a settlement and Deshaun Watson was going to come back.

But, I mean, the way Deshaun Watson looked in the preseason game and the fact that he's going to sit out half the season at least before he plays, I'm not sure he's going to show up and be awesome. Anyway, both of these guys, it's the same thing. It's that I don't know for sure what their volume is going to be. And their quarterback play, most importantly, is going to be dreadful. I think you'll see Metcalf and Lockett split, for the past couple of years, split more than people are drafting it as if, because Lockett goes three or four rounds later than Metcalf does.

And I think the Browns will do everything they can, and Seattle will as well, to be as run-heavy as the game script allows them to be. Metcalf is about wide receiver 23 on both CBS and NFC. On Fantasy Pros, he's wide receiver 18 in full PPR. So when you get to, let's say, Darnell Mooney, Rashad Bateman, Gabriel Davis, would you rather have DK Metcalf or that trio? How many in that trio?

Darnell Mooney, Rashad Bateman, Gabriel Davis. Mooney, Metcalf, Bateman, Davis for me. But I'm the low guy on Davis. Looks like Derwin James is done holding out or holding in. You got a contract extension. That is great. Okay. All right.

So those are your... And then would you rather have Amari Cooper or a guy you don't love so much, Alan Lazard? I've got Lazard a full round and a half ahead of Amari Cooper. Oh, so you really don't want Amari Cooper. All right, Jamie, let's go to your bus. Ezekiel Elliott. Ezekiel Elliott is higher on Fantasy Pros than anywhere else.

He's going 30th overall there. He's going 40th on NFC in the past week and 39th on CBS. He is RB 15 to 18 in all three sites. Is 40 too early for Ezekiel Elliott. No. And that will change my case because I think that's a perfect spot for him. You know, uh,

round four is fine. You know, so those two ADPs, I'm, I'm certainly fine with 30th. I don't get, I just don't know if he can be that type of player again. You know,

this is a worse offensive line than, than he's run behind because of the changes that they made. This is, I think, going to be as much competition as he's ever had. And that's including what Tony Pollard did last year. And I'm just concerned that, you know, he looked washed up last season. You know, you could say the knee injury, and I certainly get that. It's a valid argument, but he was still on the field. He was still getting the work. So they didn't feel like he was that compromised because they kept giving him the work and they're probably gonna give him the work again, which is,

you know, a credit to where he'll still be, you know, a decent fantasy option, but to be drafting him in the third round, just, you know, that high in the third round just feels a little bit too soon for me. I think it was like 10 straight games where he was like 55 yards rushing or less last year. Oh yeah. I like Zeke at RB 1818 that's right where i have him

but i want him at the end of round four and not in round three or early round four would you rather have ezekiel elliott or david i know he's gonna say montgomery right yep jamie montgomery or zeke this is what i'm struggling with i i put zeke ahead of Montgomery, but if Montgomery comes back soon from the injury, I'll probably flip that. I wonder what Montgomery's dealing with right now. That offensive line looked terrible. You're going to take ETN over Zeke?

I take ETN over Zeke, yes. That's in PPR and half PPR. In non-PPR, I take Zeke. I've got Zeke over ETN. Antonio Gibson and Elijah Mitchell are both falling in the eyes of many. If one is for injury reasons, one is for many reasons. Well, you're going to give me those guys, but I wrote that two weeks ago. So, I mean...

So, how do you feel about it? Right now, Antonio Gibson is still going 48th in CBS, 43rd overall. That will change. Yeah, he's still a top 24 running back. Elijah Mitchell is also a top 24 running back. Are Gibson and Mitchell top 24 running backs for you? Mitchell was never a top 24 running back for me this entire offseason. In full and half PPR.

In non-PPR, he was 24thth so i was on the fence in that format but i i've expressed my concerns over the additions that they made this offseason or guys coming back healthy and and trey lance um so he was always somebody that i was out on and now he's you know i think rb30 for me uh gibson is close to that as well uh i just i don't know what optimistic view you could take on antonio gibson at this point you know it just everything is trending in the wrong direction like i it's it sucks because he's somebody that i i was hopeful for the last two years but we've we've said this time and again the offseason showed you whatever they did to bring back jd mckissick they wanted that that player back to play on passing downs they they tried to bring back JD McKissick, they wanted that player back to play on passing downs. They tried to potentially draft Brees Hall or Ken Walker, and they settled on Brian Robinson.

And watching the two play, even in the first preseason game, one ran to what you would think a guy is supposed to look like, decisiveness. One still stutter stepping and the fumble, terrible. So if Gibson's not playing, you know, I said this before the preseason, if Gibson's not playing on passing downs, he's going to lose goal line work, which is what they were talking about for Robinson. What are you getting? You're getting empty touches. And that's not the type of guy I like. Over the last two seasons, he has 18 rushing touchdowns, Antonio Gibson, and 10 of them have come from one to two yards out. So he really needs to keep that goal line role. He wasn't all that good at it in 20. Well, I shouldn't say he wasn't all that good.

I don't know what the reasoning was, but he wasn't all that successful in 2021 inside the five yard line. But yeah. What was he inside the five compared? Because we were just talking about Najee. We talked about this with AJ Dillon, like comparing Gibson to Najee and AJ.J. Dillon on those carries, was he better or worse or in that same group?

He was better than Najee Harris. Najee Harris was pretty bad, as I recall. Let's take a look. I mean, it doesn't probably matter for Najee because he's not losing those carries anyway. It could matter for Dillon because Jones has been awesome at that. Dillon, you know, Dylan.

So, okay. Dylan and Najee Harris both had 10 carries inside the five-yard line. Dylan gained 13 yards. Harris gained two. They both scored four touchdowns. Now, I don't know. Maybe Dylan's were coming from the five-yard line

and Harris were coming from the one. And that's why the yards were so different. Or maybe Harris had a loss of five yards on a play. Exactly. That also could have happened. I remember Nick Chubb a couple years ago had one of the worst. This number means absolutely nothing to me.

I'm sorry. I've studied it enough to know that from one year to the next, it doesn't matter. I think it's like drops in that it only matters when it matters to the coaches. Exactly, yep. Like Clyde Edwards-Hilaire had one bad game inside the five-yard line and the Chiefs decided he could never be a goal line back again

but you mentioned Chubb a couple years ago last year at the beginning of the year they were giving those opportunities to Hunt more than Chubb right no actually even though you're scoring yeah yeah Hunt was scoring more further away yes and and just almost like every time he got a touch near the end zone he was scoring but Chubb did have more carries inside the five-yard line. I want to say a pretty good chunk more than Kareem Hunt in the first five games of the season when they were both healthy. I'm going to just play a devil's advocate on Elijah Mitchell. He showed last year that he's maybe a product of the system,

but, but very good 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie, a ton of explosive plays. You know, if I were going to play devil's advocate, it would be this. He's better from, from my perspective right now,

he's better than the rest of the group. There's really no reason to get excited over Trey sermon, other than what Kyle Shanahan has been saying that he's been better, but the guy was a total flop last year. Tyrion Davis price. I mean, what is he going to bring to the table? We don't even know. Jeff Wilson is kind of just the guy. So Elijah Mitchell, let's just say we think he's the most talented guy in the backfield. The injury is actually a good thing. If you like him, you are going to maybe get him around or two cheaper. Now I know he's going to miss some time, but when he plays, he's going to maybe get him around or two cheaper now. I know he's going to miss some time, but when he plays,

he's going to lead the team and carries. He's going to be the, I think the goal line running back. I know Trey Lance will factor in there, but you know, he, he still stands above the rest of the pack. That would be my argument for Elijah Mitchell.

And you could use this injury to your advantage. Anybody buy this argument? A hundred percent. I think if you're getting, look, anytime you get a player at a better value, that's a good player, which he is, you should pounce on that. But again, you know, it's where are you drafting him, you know, and what are your expectations? If you're drafting him to be a starter for your team, then I think you're going to regret it. If you're drafting him to be a starter for your team, then I think you're going to regret it. If you're drafting him to be with the hope that he could start, then that's fine. I think you could make a similar argument for Cam Akers,

Rashad Penny, and Miles Sanders. All four of those guys. It's easier with some than with others. Yeah, it's a tough group. Obviously, Akers has, I would say, the best pedigree of that group. Maybe Penny. Yeah, I guess. I mean, if you just want to go by draft pick.

You know what? Well, in top-level production, like Penny's six-game stretch is incredible. Incredible. I struggle with that group. I don't not want them. And they go late enough. Some of them go late enough where it's easy to get them as a number four running back. You know?

But do you take them over Tony Pollard? Take them over Kareem Hunt? What I struggle with, exactly. And I would say Dylan, too, and ETN. Like, you guys have them a little bit higher I think maybe but like these guys who I think if everything went right could be a feature back without an injury versus the guys who if they're all on a committee I think will be better yeah it's a it's a and if there's an injury will definitely be better it's a it's a tough combination okay last guy I think is Damian

Harris believe we've talked about everyone else here oh no, no, we didn't talk about Jalen Waddell. Oh, I'm sorry. All right, Jamie, give me this quick summary on Damian Harris. Ramondre Stevenson might be better and sounding like much more involved in the passing game. And I don't think Damian Harris is scoring 15 touchdowns again. So I think, look, he's probably going to end up being priced appropriately where you take a chance on him.

But he feels just so much more like a non-PPR running back than anything else. And in PPR, it could be a real struggle if the touchdowns really drop and Stevenson is playing as much as him, if not more. I would not take Harris before round eight in full PPR. And so, yeah, he's definitely a bust for me as well. Should we take all of the guys we just talked about over Damian Harris, Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson, Miles Sanders, Rashad Penny?

I don't remember who else was in there. Full PPR, yes. Yeah, the only one I struggle with is potentially Penny because, again, groin injury, back, what's the next injury? You know what I mean? But if you're looking for upside, Penny has probably more upside.

Jalen Waddell and Amandra St. Brown are two wide receivers on Jamie's bust list here, saving some of the biggest names for last. Waddell, take a look at ADP, is wide receiver 14 on Fantasy Pros. He is wide receiver 16 on NFC. And he is in that range on CBS. He's right in between DJ Moore and Chris Godwin.

So should he be a top 16 wide receiver, Jamie? No, not if Tyreek Hill is there. And last time I checked, he's there. He's fine. It just, I can't see a scenario where both of these guys are being drafted in the spots that they are and getting the type of numbers you need them to get to be successful. And, like, you see the projections here for our site where he's the 10th wide receiver.

He had 140 targets last year over 100 catches. We're projecting him to do that again. I can't see that. I mean, unless Tua is going to take such a significant step, He had 140 targets last year over 100 catches. We're projecting him to do that again. I can't see that. I mean, unless Tua is going to take such a significant step, maybe he does. And maybe Mike McDaniel's system allows both these guys to flourish. But, I mean, Gusecki's still going to get catches. Sed Wilson, somebody that they like, is still going to be involved.

The running back's still going to be involved. And I just can't see both of these guys having the same type of production that you're expecting from them and replicating what he did a year ago. I think Jalen Waddles is still a starting fantasy wide receiver. It's the same thing that I said about Adams and Debo. This isn't, don't draft them to be starters, but I think in PPR, he's closer to wide receiver 20, if not a couple spots behind. And in non-PPR where I don't think he's going to score seven touchdowns, I think he's probably going to get five. I mean, he's a borderline number two guy there. So I'm just concerned that

we're drafting Jalen Waddle as if Tyreek Hill doesn't exist. And I just don't think that's right. Boy, but he's... Like, this comment here is so appropriate. Jalen Waddle would be an absolute beast if Tyreek Hill wasn't there. I agree.

That's what's so hard about this. Is it possible we're just too low on Tua? Potentially. And he can support two top 16 guys. I think it was Colin Cowherd who tweeted, there was the first video that went out this offseason about Tua underthrowing Tyreek Hill, and the Dolphins kind of promoting that.

And then it was almost every video from mostly beat reporters, so it's not like the team was doing this, of Tua making these incredible plays in training camp. And Colin Coward said it's amazing that Tua's the first quarterback in NFL history that hasn't had a bad throw in training camp because everything was just so glowing. And then you see a couple of, you know, no mistakes. He's going to make mistakes. He's an average human being.

We're going to see him have flaws. But there's a creative coach. There's an upgraded offensive line. And there's just unbelievable weapons. My fear is, is that these weapons are not going to maximize. Tua's not going to maximize these weapons. I think he's just going to keep them afloat. And that's my fear,

is that we're not going to see the best of Tyreek Hill, which I think is understandable because he's losing Patrick Mahomes. And I don't think we're going to see the best of Jalen Waddle from a year ago because Tyreek Hill's there. Finally, Jamie, before we get to Amon or St. Brown, here's something real quick

from Paramount+. We found your daughter. She's alive. Esther? It's Mommy. Four years is a long time. Welcome home. I think something's going on with Esther.

She seemed different. Since she got back, there's constant lying this outburst of anger orphan first kill rated r streaming august 19th on paramount plus amano saint brown wide receiver 26 on fantasy pros over the past week on nfc he is wide receiver 25 and saint brown on cbs is appears to be lower than that it's not numbered but i'll tell you in just a moment jamie where do you have him on or saint brown yeah you know i this is starting to look closer to the range where i would draft him you know and and again it was just a few spots i believe he was like wide receiver 23 when i wrote this and this this was, you know, again, over two weeks ago. So I probably, my last round of busts will not have Amara St. Brown there.

And I've actually moved him up over the last couple of weeks. I think, you know, you kind of have to understand what you're getting. The case against him is what we've said a lot, is the majority of his production last season came at the end of the year when Hawkinson was hurt and Swift was hurt and now both those guys are healthy with DJ Chark and whatever they get from Jamison Williams and so can he still be as successful I think he's a very good player I think he proved that and you go back to you know our conversations at the beginning last year this was somebody I was taking with the late round pick and

I was excited about him after the draft because of his opportunity in a very, you know, incomplete receiving core. And so if they have everybody there, I just don't think he's going to be as productive, but still a good number three receiver to take better in PPR than non PPR. And you saw in the opening drive for the lions against the Falcons in the first preseason game that he was, he's a guy that Jared Goff likes and hopefully will continue to like. So if you're not overdrafting him, he's fine. If you're taking him as a high end number three receiver, depending on your build, even a number two receiver in PPR,

I'm okay with that. Yeah, this he's bounced all over the place for me, but I've, I think really like the whole DeAndre Swift running back target question I had really benefits a Monroe St. Brown. If it does go back to what the split they had in the second half of the season, it's much easier to see St. Brown as a borderline number two wide receiver. If they throw 20% of their passes to running backs versus 27%. I, I struggle with St. Brown in the, uh, Jerry, Judy, Rashad Bateman, Gabriel Davis range, and I've got St. Brown in the Jerry, Judy, Rashad Bateman,

Gabriel Davis range, and I've got St. Brown at the top right now. Wow. And he's actually wide receiver 36 in CBS ADP. That's too low. That's too low. What about a non-PPR? That's about right. Okay.

Yeah? Yeah, probably. Interesting player, and really can't wait to see what he can do in Act 2, Amandra St. Brown. That is it for our busts. Some of them will not make the final cut of the bust list, but most of them will. And we'll keep updating you on the players that we think are being drafted too high. Thanks very much for watching, everybody. Do appreciate it. Thank you so much for listening, of course. Please leave a five-star review.

Please tell your friends. Help our show grow. We appreciate that. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with the Breakouts Bonanza. Four breakout episodes, one for each position, one industry guest for each position.

And you'll enjoy it. We'll talk to you later.